Comments on: Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition in NSW

By: MDMConnell

MDMConnell — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 06:56:11 +0000

Problem is, adorno, that i don’t think those arguments cut it for a 16 year old government. “It’s not our fault, you’re all biased against us, and anyway the other mob is worse” didn’t work for Howard last year (nor Keating before him) so why would it work for Morris?

Going for your fifth term in office you need to have a popular leader with a visionary agenda, or for the opposition to completely fall apart. While the latter is not out of the question, I think even the most diehard Laborite would concede there’s not much evidence of the former.

By: adorno

adorno — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 11:08:23 +0000

The unfortunate thing about Iemma is that he is a very compenent premier in the managerial sense, far better than Carr (think of Greiner without the extreme right wing economic agenda). His problem is the inability to purge the party of duds, and importantly a right wing media that is simply unbelievable in its antipathy towards labor – just look at clennell and benson. Clennell is a card carrying lib, and benson just wants to out flank penberthy from the right. Another problem is that the msm detests politics and politicians – they are leading this descent to the bottom.
Yet those thinking about voting Liberals in 2011 best think again – these right wing jerks will send NSW into complete chaos. Barrie is a puppet of the right, a nice guy, but completely useless.

By: Gary Bruce

Gary Bruce — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 06:09:36 +0000

“Any apologies from the Premier and/or his colleagues which are then coupled with self serving statements to the effect that the Opposition would do no better, are empty, unhelpful and desperate.” Ahh, but true.
We have the same problems in Victoria and we ARE privatised.
I read Antony’s posting. Labor will either have the power privatised well before the next election or the policy will stall and the idea will crash and burn, enabling Labor to go to the next election promising then not to privatise. That will leave a Liberal Party promising to privatise at sometime into the future.
Channel 7 news recently showed documents proving how the private electricity companiews were ripping us off at the expense of their shareholders. Not a good look.

By: David Charles

David Charles — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 05:15:15 +0000

Progressive (83) I must have been travelling on the same train line as you were this morning (Friday) The 30 minute delay meant my Year 10 son was late handing in an assignment at school, his penalty: automatic deduction of 10% of the assessment mark for the assignment. He is not a happy chap, even more so after his father delivered a ‘lecture’ on being ‘better organised’.

It should not be said that my son’s circumstances are, at least directly, Morrie’s fault. However, transport delays or instances like the (recent) Spit bridge and M5 tunnel fiascos are really a symptom of government inaction (incompetence, negligence, whatever you want to call it) on basic service delivery issues. Any apologies from the Premier and/or his colleagues which are then coupled with self serving statements to the effect that the Opposition would do no better, are empty, unhelpful and desperate.

As for Gary Bruce (73) I suggest a useful starting point for understanding electricity privatisation issues in NSW, could be Antony’s post @52.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 01:58:24 +0000

Yeah, it won’t happen. We’re stuck with the lot for 2 3/4 more years.

By: Progressive

Progressive — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 01:48:44 +0000

Roads and public transport are the two biggest issues hurting this state government. There was another problem on the city rail network this morning, delaying trains by 30 minutes on some major routes! Motorists and commuters will sheet the blame home to Iemma, however fair or unfair that might be!

By: Antony Green

Antony Green — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 01:45:38 +0000

Ben, there have been two early elections in Germany. Schroder did it after a string of Lander (state) election defeats for his party had changed the composition of the state-appointed upper house of Parliament. The government was no longer in the position to implement any legislation, and with the consent of the opposition, went through the time consuming process to initiate and early election.

The other early election was in 1982. The Free Democrats had switched side mid-term, meaning that Helmut Kohl had replaced Helmut Schmidt as Chancellor. The consensus was after that change, an early election should be held.

From memory, the political instability in the Weimar Republic means that the German Constitution and parliamentary rules mean that you can’t have a no-confidence motion without also specifying an alternative government. It’s often called a positive vote of no confidence. So any coalition united enough to bring down an existing government must also be united to support a new government. The process of getting an early election was deliberately made time consuming.

An early election in NSW would take time, would require the government to vote itself out of office, and would require the consent of the Opposition. Can you imagine a month of ‘Iemma gives up’ headlines before the Premier could even formally request an election. Even worse, what if Iemma supported a vote of no-confidence in his own government, and O’Farrell said ‘Well I’ll form government’. Precident means the Governor would give him that right. It might only last a week or two until another vote of no-confidence was passed, but it would put the Labor Party in the position of going into an election saying we don’t want to be in government.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 01:09:43 +0000

Hmm, interesting. I thought there was just no way to call an early election. Didn’t Gerhard Schroder get his parliamentarians to abstain on a vote of no confidence to trigger an early election (which he lost)?

But even if Iemma could manufacture an election, why the hell would he? If you were Iemma, you’d have to think that you’re very unlikely to win in 2011 and going early will only bring on the inevitable earlier. You might as well enjoy the power as long as you can.

By: Antony Green

Antony Green — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 00:30:44 +0000

Not by choice. It requires the moving of a vote of no confidence in the government with 8 days notice, debate on that motion leading to defeat of the government followed by a period in which a baton change to a new government is undertaken. If a new government cannot be formed, then an early election can be called. The process would take several weeks before the writ could be issued.

And I mean a real vote of no confidence, a specific motion, not defeat on legislation like electricity privatisation. So to get an early election, either the Labor Party would have to split on a permanent basis, or it would have to engineer its own defeat. Neither is likely.

The NSW Legislative Council cannot block supply or major tax bills, so it can’t be forced to the polls by the upper house either.

By: MDMConnell

MDMConnell — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 23:07:16 +0000

Antony,

Although NSW has fixed term elections, do you know if there is any provision for going to the polls earlier than the fixed date? I’m thinking that if things keep going the way they are, Rudd might lean very heavily on Iemma to get the inevitable over with and give him some clear air for 2010.