Mumble reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead dropping from 59-41 to 55-45, with primary votes of 44 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent for Coalition, 10 per cent for Greens and 7 per cent others. More to follow.
Meanwhile, Alexander Downer confirms he will quit parliament to take up a job as United Nations special envoy to Cyprus. Mayo by-election to follow.
UPDATE (2/7/07): Today’s Australian provides further figures on standard of living expectations, which have plunged shockingly – “get worse” being up from 18 per cent to 43 per cent since December. While I’m here, a belated link to yesterday’s graphic.
UPDATE (3/7/07): Newspoll has released its quarterly aggregated poll which provides breakdowns by state, gender and age. It suggests the Rudd honeymoon effect has been especially strong in South Australia and in metropolitan areas, is fading quickest in Victoria, and did not further increase support for Labor in the 18-34 age group. Two of these four are consistent with the result of the Gippsland by-election.
631 Comments
No surprises here. About what one would expect with state newspolls being produced in each state last week, most showing a drop in support for Labor.
It gets tougher for the Opposition over the next little while with no parliament sitting, taxcuts coming in from tomorrow, and the focus shifting to the weakness of the environment later this week when the Garnaut Report is released on Friday.
http://www.garnautreview.org.au/domino/Web_Notes/Garnaut/garnautweb.nsf
Pollytrack and its inbred cousin Loess Allpolls have been updated with Newspoll and the latter with the last Morgan F2F
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/06/30/the-narrowing-the-narrowing-run-for-the-hills/
It’s the Narrowing!
Women and children first!
Steve,
Yep, the Govt’s response to Garnaut & Emission trading will be interesting. They will end up somewhere between two extreme’s
1) Doing juuuuust enought to wedge the opposition but not sending energy prices souring.
2) Doing enough to actually make a differnece and sending a 50% energy shock through the economy (my own guess based on the european $80/ton price of carbon).
There are plenty of Machiavellian devotees advocating 1) and plenty of idealists advocating 2)
Its unclear to me who will win.
Curious how quiet these threads get when Labor drops four points.
heh!
We are entering the period where the really important stuff begins re Environment. Rudd & Co have been fairly quiet post budget, not defending it to the extent that would be normally expected. Labor relatively quiet Gippsland. It is as if the main game is yet to come. Time seemed to be spent excessively on the fuel issue but perhaps with the main aim of educating the public that fuel was a Global issue.
Rudd out-thought and out-manouevred the “unbeatable” Howard last year in a time of low inflation, high employment against general expectations. The recent interpretation that the Press put on Rudd’s performance does not line up with Rudd’s past performance, and Rudd did not retaliate much to set the record straight. I think the important part is yet to come.
55/45 is still pretty good. PPM is pretty good. We have not got the approval ratings as yet. Brendan is still in a low postion. Opposition will get some false hope with the help of media mates. Money will start to flow into people’s pockets from this week. Ground gained by the Opposition by populist proposals, untested by the Press surely must be short lived.
Because of the Garnaut Report polls will be volatile for awhile as people make up their minds on the Government’s proposals.
We will see what happens.
I think what is surprising William is that we haven’t got the conservative supporters out in force either. They know this is not a great result given the circumstances we find ourselves in. A drop from a previous outlier poll is not all that exciting or significant I would have thought.
I’m not surprised!
These factors are working against Rudd:
1. Petrol prices
2. N.S.W Labor/Iemma/Iguanagate Affair
3. A very biased media, largely dancing to Nelson’s tune! The ABC in particular are hardly covering themselves with glory right now!
Labor needs to stop worrying about Fuel Watch, in fact it might be better to let the thing fall over in the senate. Get the focus off petrol, and don’t leave Nelson any room to play populist, short term politics, which I must confess is working for him right now!
4 “Curious how quiet these threads get when Labor drops four points.”
William, I think they all anticipated it too! There was not the chatter this week that there was before the Newspoll a fortnight ago.
So, in other words, Rudd needs a new script, if I was to criticise him, I’d say he’s been too reactive lately, he has to lead and set the agenda, wedge Nelson!
Actually William, were really all just one sock puppet, and I got scared off by what you did to Honest John…
Or maybe they have seen the results from the Superannuation Funds this year and have slunk into bed depressed before Newspoll came out. The Share Market, Property Market and Superannuation Funds seem to be the only branches of business in Australia that don’t put their prices up willy nilly these days.
Progressive,
Nelson is irrelevant. Garnauts report comes out on Friday. The selling of ETR will decide whether Rudd and Co survive. They have to sell increases in living costs to the average Australian family.
Good luck Mr. Rudd.
I think Doug @ 6 has nailed it. Most of what Rudd has done since being in government is just preparatory groundwork. The main game is yet to start, but will soon.
The Shamaham
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23949828-601,00.html
Right, Possum @ 2: It’s the Narrowing -eight months too late, or two years too early. Milne and Co may kid themselves that Nelson is some kind of political genius who ‘won the petrol wars’ for the Opposition, but most of his front bench is on record repudiating the 5 cents tax policy. And there are a lot of shadow ministers -’aspirational voters’ maybe- who just know they could do a better job than Brendan. If the Coalition does consistently look like they could be a real chance at the next election, just watch for the flashing of the knives -and then the crashing of the polls.
Downer lets fly on the big issues:
Pointing out that he is a cigar smoker, Mr Downer goes on: “It just incenses me and it even encourages me to think about going into state politics – that’s how much it incenses me – to have state governments tell us where we can smoke and where we can’t smoke.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23949822-601,00.html
Forget world peace, the big issue of our time is the threat to our civil liberties caused by stopping people getting cancer.
He also has a go at Nelson:
“They need to build policies around that narrative. It is one thing to start barking on about reducing fuel excise by 5c, but what’s your point?”
“Why would you want to do that? You need a broader narrative. The Liberal Party does not have a story to tell at the moment. Just a bunch of ad hoc comments.”
The way I understood the theory behind the ETS was that the fuel excise would probably go to offset the increased costs, in much the same way as GST replaced sales taxes. No mention of that possibility from Sham – I – am.
Thats almost a balanced acticle from the Shanahan, who has taken his place? He doesnt even have a “the honeymoon is over”
interesting the polls about the ETS, perhaps Australians arent as stupid as the coalition thinks they are
But won’t the ETS offset slowly increase as the cost of carbon increases?
That could mean we have this stupid debate every single year, instead of the price increase making people change their habits.
Well I blame the OZ, for not letting that hilarious Dennis Shanahan do their initial write-ups anymore. This new one is not nearly provocative enough.
Ruddster needs to tread lightly with his punitive pricing model for fixing greenhouse emissions. He may like to play the guy making the tough decisions, but an election platform based on repealing a too tough ETS would be a very easy decision for the Libs to make.
Cosmicjeter,
Cross yourself and chew on garlic right now!
Grouse! That’s Melbournese for you beauty!
Lol, I’m with Possum the narrowing…
20 Showson. See comment 6 here.
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/29/carbon-taxes-and-fuel-prices/#comment-212253
“Greeensborough Growler Says:
Cosmicjeter,
Cross yourself and chew on garlic right now!”
Dont worry you will like this one
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23948536-7583,00.html
Rudd is the next Whitlam! Beware, he is taking away our freedoms
hmmm lower result for Labor = Nelson keeps his job. I fail to see how this is bad for Labor?
Same with the Nationals result in the Hicksland By-election really.
So sad to see Dolly pull the pin.
Yes, it’s much more satisfying sticking the pin in Dolly.
The “honeymoon” is still on me darlings. Shag session 1 is done & getting ready for shag session 2… such longevity!! Love is in the air!!!
Votes by the Queensland Liberals to be taken over by the Queensland Nationals who were taken over by Clive Palmer…are counted today. With the supposed 10 000 members of the National Party turning out to be 40% Sheep, cattle, goats and racehorses, it will be interesting to see what proportion of the alleged 5500 Queensland Liberal Party members have their addresses overseas and forgot to vote.
Well, it has taken 7 months to arrive to near where the polls where just before the November elections. All this while Rudd is doing nothing, working too hard, making the Public Service work to hard, letting a Public Servant take 5 week annual holiday,not doing enough, pushing 42 bills through the Senate,oh as well as the Word wide steep rise in fuel and food.On and on and on it goes. All with the help of the MSM while Nelson gets away scott free to do and say whatever enters his silly head.
Yes it sounds the same as in ‘73-’75 what was done to Whitlam and how he ruined Australia, yet after 8 years of Fraser and Howard the economy was in worse shape by ‘83.
Does anyone have a link to the newspoll pdf? I get a 404-Page not found error on The Australian link.
The tpp looks a bit weird. I will explain when I see the full results.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-1jul.pdf
Thanks JJ.
Thanks James J – I’d been having the same problem as ruawake
Hard to know what to make of this one
The Nats number is higher than usual, you don’t often see it that high outside of election results.
If you discount the last newspoll, and compare this one to May 30, it looks like this poll has overshot the LNP primary a bit,
maybe 56-44 would be more like it
As I thought 4 points of “the narrowing” are from others and the greens the other 2 points are off labor’s primary.
The June 13-15 poll seems to overstate labors lead, this one is basically back in line with all the others.
Some suggest that the latest Newspoll is “the narrowing we had to have”.
Another way of viewing these figures, drawing back on the psephoscope ever so slightly, is that ALP won the last Fed. El. with 52.7% 2PP, so 55/45 is an improvement in their position.
The Nightwatchman in PPM terms has consolidated himself in double figures and threatens to bat on till the luncheon adjournment. A concern for the tory “brainstrust” is that compared to Tin-Tin popularitywise, if the electorate was a Lonely Hearts Club, Brendon would have his photo returned in a plain paper envelope alonside a “with compliments” slip:
“Thank you for your paticipation, Dr. Nelson. We regret that we don’t have any participants on our files who are quite that lonely.”
Of Interest to Many Pollbludgers
Over at Blogocracy Tim Dunlop is running a thread at the moment about bias on the ABC. This being a topic of concern to many ‘bludgers, you might like to take a look and perhaps make a comment.
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/abc_election_coverage/
(Thanks for the space for this ‘announcement’, William)
I is an interesting period, Australian is not europe, most european country does not have coal mines and petroleum explorers, Australia has them, it will be interesting how many jobs (union jobs) the carbon trading scheme will cost Australia.
It will also push up the cost of transport, cost of petrol?, cost of grocery etc, so I do not think the ALP will make the really hard decision
Listening to Turnbull on Lateline last night, he was using the Newspoll to drive his narrative. It seemed a very dangerous thing to do; four weeks ago we were looking at a 57-43 split, then a 59-41 and now a 55-45. If the actual split is something about 56.5-43.5 the last few polls could all be merely noise, in which case Turnbull and Nelson are going to be accused of doing something dramatically wrong over the next two weeks if the next Newspoll bounces back to Labor.
The results of the questions on climate change and petrol are very encouraging and surprising. I would say the government stands a very good show of taking the people with them on this.
Re those polls on the ETS: my suspicion is that in general people lie regarding this issue. There are many things that people could do that would cost them a few more dollars a week but would significantly help the environment if lots of people did them. But the evidence is that people are not doing those things. It is all very well to say to a pollster, ‘Oh, of course I’d be happy to pay a little more and do my bit for the polar bears,’ but when it comes to shelling out the readies there is a different tale to be told.
So, while I think that radical action is needed, radical action will not be taken unless Rudd is thinking of committing political suicide.
Very interesting…(he said stroking his beard)…with three elections still to come this year (yes, I know most bludgers don’t think Council elections are real, but they ARE happening) the latest sets of numbers must be a little worrying for the ALP in Melbourne and Sydney (and potentially on country councils too). While Councils may not have the clout of state or federal govt, they are often a training ground for future pollies, so maybe we’ll see the start of a new tranche of ALP young bloods (where old faces disappear) or will it just be the same old hacks staying place, going nowhere? The Libs must be quietly hoping for some new faces coming through, especially as there will be need to fill potentially winnable seats come Mar 2011 in NSW.
And what of the ACT – any chance of any polling showing anything there prior to October? Stanhope must have been thinking he was on a winner with Rudd, but the gloss seems to have come off and may end up losing him control of the Assembly.
43 Stewart J – all this based on a Newspoll showing Labor would win an election in a landlslide. Hell, I’m glad he’s not trailing.
Stewart J – for the “latest set of numbers concerning Victoria I suggest you look them up here and see that Labor in Victoria is doing very well thankyou. Based on these “latest set of numbers” Labor would increase its majority.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl
The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Farg some people love to slit their wrists over a single poll.
Now I understand why the Galaxy Poll was commissioned. “THE Liberals and Nationals are set to merge in Queensland within a month.”
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23951520-5003402,00.html
Gary Bruce
Ah, but I was considering the series of polls not just this one, and the implications of a falling ALP primary vote. If you consider that most Councils (and the ACT) are elected from multi-member electorates the 2pp has less relevance. Now, while the Libs might think their day in the sun is coming (well, in NSW anyway) a rising Green vote could catch them out. Consider also that certainly in NSW you have optional preferential voting so Councillors can be elected on less than a quote (depending on the wards, whether their is an above the line option and so on). So Greens soaking up ALP votes could deliver split wards and councils.
The ACT is also an interesting case. Stanhope was not travelling that well on his own, but was bouyed by two factors:
1. Howard’s general unpopularity with public servants (prior to the federal election), and
2. Rudd’s general popularity (after the federal election).
As the gloss comes off Rudd the spotlight will fall more on Stanhope’s Govt and its achievements. This isn’t sky is falling stuff, but may point to re-alignments in 2 states (for Councils) and a territory Government. And I personally wouldn’t right off Councils as unimportant – they provide many important services and activities and electors know that. The interference in residential planning by Sartor here in NSW is one of the reasons for the NSW ALP’s fall in popularity.
I am increasingly annoyed by the ‘all spin no substance’ tag that the opposition are running. Now I’m biased in kinds of ways but the Libs tried this (unsuccessfully) against the Gallop Govt in WA which IMHO was almost entirely substance and needed a hell of a lot more spin.
On the other hand, again IMHO the Carpenter Govt spins massively, still has some substance but certainly less than Gallop, and no-one accuses them of spin.
Of course Rudd has some spin, it would be stupid not to be, but I don’t understand why the line ‘all spin no substance’ is used so much when it is obviously a silly line.
We certainly miss Dr Geoff, Jasmine.
Because it’s all they’ve got
47 GB – 85% of the 57% of Liberals who voted means that only 48% of Queensland Liberals supported the merger.
48 Stewart J – local councils mean nothing politically here in Victoria. I couldn’t careless if the conservatives ran everyone of them. I’ll be very surprised if the Libs end up in control in the ACT.
Stewart J I find it hard to imagine Labor will lose government in the ACT. Although I’m sure the people aren’t thrilled to bits with the government the Opposition is at various times completely dysfunctional or completely invisible.
Add to that the fact their leader is Zed Who? and I don’t think I’d bet anything on them winning this year.
ABC Radio news said there were about 3,000 postal votes. So I guess there are only about 5,300 Liberal Party members in Qld. Of these about 2,600 want a merger, 2,700 could not be stuffed voting or are opposed. If the ABC report was accurate.
As for Jasmine, the Rudd Government certainly spins a lot but… so far… a lot less than the Howard Government did. With Howard we got wall to wall adverting (read propoganda) and remarkably little of note after 11 years in Government as far as pure policy is to be concerned. The largest policy moves of the Howard Government, the GST and Work Choices were understandably spun til they could spin no longer.
Then we have a look at migration policies… again mostly spin. You’d get them talking about doing something which would have little effect or that they’d end up doing nothing about.
Then you get the laughable nonsense with the Opposition ridiculing the Government for setting up reviews and committees when:
a) they did this as well (for instance Costello’s ACCC fuel inquiry, now they have a tax review, which you’d think they would’ve thought about while they were in Government rather than in Opposition);
b) The Coalition constantly set up committees and inquiries in the Senate (into bills… and now they have 5 Select Committees); and
c) it must be acknowledged that good policy usually involves a fair degree of research and consideration… this is why firms do market research rather than just making decisions brashly and regretting them… bad policy almost always comes from a lack of consultation (e.g. the $10 billion back-of-the-envelope water plan, the NT intervention etc.).
The problem, I think, with the Rudd spin is that it’s so transparent and far too inflexible when it’s seen for what it is. Rather than adapting their spin to suit what’s being thrown at them they just keep repeating it as if we don’t all see the flaws in the logic.
Dario, thanks for the reply, just wondering if you could be a bit more helpful for poor ol me. Is there anything at all resembling either logic or fact that might support such an obviously flawed assertion?
Obviously flawed? Do you have anything at all resembling either logic or fact that might support that?
re: ABC
two Newspolls ago (ie. 4 weeks ago) which showed a slight improvement in Nelsons pref. PM but a static 2PP for Libs. Oilyman on abc 7pm TV news had the briefest of reports, no graphics, which mentioned the former but nothing on the second. Last Newspoll (ie. 2 weeks ago) which showed an improvement in preferred PM and 2pp for Rudd and Labor recieved NO MENTION AT ALL from Oilyman despite the previous f/night being all about petrol/Fuelwatch and how it spelled electoral doom for R and L. Given this Newspoll has shown an improvement in both PPM and 2pp for Nelson and Libs. heres predicting both will be mentioned complete with graphics.
Gary Bruce Says @ July 1st, 2008 at 2:12 pm: Its just the start. The votes are still coming in I’ve been told.
Oh and its “57 percent of eligible members took part in the ballot” on the merger. Many ineligible members = dead, so it will actually be a larger proportion.
Yeah, and I’m not going to get into whether any of it is good public policy or not, but anyone that has been awake since Rudd won, knows the Government has been working very hard right across the very full and details policy position they took to the last election. You may not like action on climate change, you may not like the fizzypop tax, you may have missed or disliked the budget, you may not be a fan of fuelwatch. You might have missed public servants groaning under the pressure of work. But it would take a pretty narrow focus to say there is no substance at all. Hate the substance by all means, but no need to pretend it isn’t there.
dovif @ 39 -
it will be interesting how many jobs (union jobs) the carbon trading scheme will cost Australia.
Yes, but what about the opportunities?
The above is the type of thinking that prevailed under the former government. While Howard was valiantly holding back the sustainable energy tide for his coal mine owning cronies, the West Germans built a multi billion dollar solar industry using technology developed at the University of Melbourne, providing jobs for over 56,000 Germans.
China’s richest man is also building his fortune on UM solar technology. He used to work there but couldn’t get any seed money from either the Australian government or business to commercialise what he and his colleagues had developed so turned to the Chinese. Interestingly, the amount the Chinese government coughed up was less than what Turnbull authorised for the infamous rain machine!
It will also push up the cost of transport, cost of petrol?, cost of grocery etc, so I do not think the ALP will make the really hard decision
I hope you’re wrong because if we don’t bite the bullet now we’ll pay an even bigger price later. The cost of petrol will go up anyway. The only salvation is turning to alternatives and that won’t happen without encouragement, or the funding gained from taxing carbon.
As for the cost of food, most of the recent increases are due to shortages caused by droughts and other weather disasters, and the diversion of grains to bio fuels. We’ve had what, 5, 6 years of drought in much of the Murray Darling system that produces the bulk of our food and things aren’t looking good for this year’s crops either. In WA annual rainfall has dropped some 60% in the last 30 years and the trend is accelerating. In VIC and NSW rainfall deficits aren’t quite as bad but the same trend is evident.
Australia is the continent that will be most effected by global warming. Unchecked, we’ll be producing very little food within decades. If you think food is expensive now, and frankly, it’s dirt cheap which is why we waste so much of it, wait until we’re competing for it in a world were food is increasingly scarce!
The Bush’s and Howard’s of the world have cost us a decade in solving the problems we humans have inflicted on the world. We probably can’t recover if another decade is lost. The expected melting of the North Pole ice within the next month or two, which was predicted wouldn’t happen for decades, provides stark evidence of how limited our time may be.
Stuart J
the ALP in Victoria hardly ever endorses in council any more therefore most ALP councillors are not identified.
However the greens do endorse and therefore it will be interesting to see how their vote goes
One thing everyone seems to be missing is when carbon trading comes in, what taxes will be abolished?
Could the fuel excise go and be replaces with a carbon tax?
We all know if Australia was to be re federated today the tax system and powers would look completely different
Our current Federal tax system, raises $16 Bill from fule excise, $40 Bill GST, $65 Bill from company tax and acout $120 Bill from PAYG and yet has a surplus of $22 Bill
Can anyone see a system of say abolition of fuel excise and replacement of a carbon tax ie abolish 38 cents per litre fuel excise and replace with an initial 30 cpl of carbon tax, no gst on carbon tax thus another saving and the government wearing some loo of revenue. On top of this tax cuts all round to make up the differance for the excise on other things.
The Liberals seem to talk about carbon tax increases only, and forget that a new tax will be off set with other tax reductions / abolitions, just as they did with the GST
Well, a very intriguing position the Queensland Liberals have got themselves into again. As usual after years of factional fighting and brawling the same old story. Fifty one percent of Queensland Liberals either voted against the merger or abstained. About forty nine percent voted for the merger. Their problem is that the Liberals must have a constitution for the State Division that sets out exactly what percentage is needed to allow constitutional changes . I have serious doubts that that percentage is less than two thirds of the membership if not even more.
MayoFeral
The Divine Miss O is back from the naughty corner at the Oz with a very good article on Dolly, who she kicks very hard.
So, it’s goodbye and farewell to Alexander Downer. He’s off to solve the small crisis that is Cyprus, and there’s just enough time to assure us that he has no regrets, not a one.
But come now, Alex, surely there’s room for a little modesty?
For example: Iraq? It used to be ruled by Saddam Hussein, a man that Downer once described as a “grave and gathering’’ threat to the mighty West.
No, really, lest we forget, Downer once told the Australian public that Saddam’s regime posed a threat to the “security and safety’’ of no, not just Australia, but to the world.
As far as Saddam’s nuclear program went, it was a minute to midnight. Saddam could use them at any time.
That wasn’t quite right, obviously.
Why, it is even possible that Iraq was no threat to the West, ever. A brave soul once put this idea to Downer, who chortled, and said: “Well, they’re no threat anymore!’’
No, indeed. But enough of the jokes. What about the weapons, though? Could it be there never were any?
It took a while for Downer to admit this. A year after the war, he was still saying things like: `There’s been a lot of debate about the intelligence, and whether it was accurate or not ….’’
Actually, there’s no debate. It wasn’t accurate, not that Downer would ever say so. No, he told ABC in 2005: “I think the broad intelligence picture was right.”
Broadly right, except that it was … dead wrong.
He has no regrets – neither should we
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php/theaustralian/comments/he_has_no_regrets_neither_should_we/
Steve @ 52. That’s the problem with stats, they can be spun any way you want. By your reckoning, a mere 8% of their members oppose the merger.
Ken, funny that at State Council meetings the two thirds majority rule applies and only members present can vote. Obviously here as everywhere else in the sane world abstaining is counted as effectively a no vote.
State Council may make, by a majority of no less
than two-thirds of members present at a meeting,
Rules consistent with this Constitution including any
Rule adopting a Code of Conduct dealing with the
manner in which party members shall deal with each
other. Rule 159 (a)
http://www.qld.liberal.org.au/pdf/ConstitutionCurrent-13-11-2005.pdf
What has Kevin Rudd got to do with a US election site and look at the loaded question (top left).
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/general-election/
Steve you don’t need to worry to much about the Queensland merger now we need to await the joint constitutional conventions on July 26 and 27 for your so called palmer franchise to become reality. The new look LNP will give the Bligh Labor Government a run for its money.
PN – I await with glee. Indeed, but nobody has nominated the 25 seats they are going to win over and above what they hold now, have they?
I would put significant money on Bligh winning the next state election. It will be with a reduced majority I believe but a loss this time round will be beyond the opposition no matter what form they take.
Qld Labor is not in the same ball park as the NSW mess.
PN and there is a very good reason why the 25 seats have never been nominated. The theory of a Palmer Franchise team win is Pie in the sky when you look at the seats required.
I hear on the grapevine that Fiona Simpson is not a happy camper and that she will challenge for the deputy leadership of the Liberal National Party if the amalgamation goes through.
The Queensland opposition – the gift that just keeps on giving.
ruawake, I’m expecting them to split into more factions than the IRA. We will have the Pineapple Party, the real Liberals, the Western Suburbs Liberals and another faction loosely called ‘the rest’. It will ensure many independents in the next parliament is the most likely result.
Springborg had better watch his back too.
http://ambit-gambit.nationalforum.com.au/archives/003167.html
If anyone’s still interested, I’ve added this to my Kororoit by-election thread:
How many Labor held state seats are within the Gippsland electorate William?
One that they might have hoped to win back. And do you imagine that the lessons of Gippsland end at its boundaries?
There hasn’t been a byelection in the other electorates as yet and the Newspoll for Victoria has been very impressive. Labor had trouble with Gippsland last election, I’d expect it will next time too.
Does anyone think Quentin Bryce will sack Rudd?
Not if she wants to be sacked first. What makes you ask that question Edward? I can’t see the circumstances where that could happen.
Does anyone think Bneal and Della will survive?
ESJ
The DPP will find insufficient evidence to lay any charges and you can go back the reading the Terror and watching ACA.
Brief snippet on the 6.30 news that the Qld Branch of the Liberals may be insolvent!
LOl ruawake,
no doubt thats what they hope too! I do not think they will survive this.
“the Qld Branch of the Liberals may be insolvent!”
How can that be they always said they were good economic managers. It is their main claim to fame.
Diogenes @ 66 -
Yeah, Saddam presented such a grave threat that when Downer was told AWB might be paying Saddam several hundred million dollars in bribes, money that could be used for WMDs, Downer couldn’t even be bothered asking a minion to check it out. Or so he says.
But whether Saddam had or didn’t have WMDs is immaterial. There is a strong prima facie case against Downer (and others in the Howard ministry) for Waging Aggressive War/Crimes Against Peace. A hanging offence. Depending on how much of the material canvassed in the Downing St Memo was known to him, he might also have a case to answer on Conspiracy to Wage Aggressive War, also a hanging offence. Most military legal eagles believe the torture and illegal detention of David Hicks constitutes a War Crime, and that Downer may have a case to answer. Again, a potential hanging offence.
However, having seen the aftermath first hand, I believe the strongest condemnation should be reserved for his actions/inactions in the months leading up to the independence vote in East Timor. I’ve already detailed them in a previous post so won’t waste bandwith on it again.
MayoFeral
I know this won’t really come to anything but we can dream…
BTW The commentary underneath is priceless.
Australia’s John Howard’s possible war crimes submitted to the International Criminal Court
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/06/03/australias-john-howards-possible-war-crimes-submitted-to-the-international-criminal-court/
Selling National driven policies (for the newly formed party) to urban Qld Liberals will be a big ask.
Many Lib party members may think amalgamation is the only way forward but whither the votes of the small L brigade out there who hate the Nats?
Effectively leaving your lifelong constituents with no party to vote for is incredible.
There will, of course, be a rash of (Lib) Independents at the next election trying to take advantage of the vacuum, and with opt pref there will likely be a high exhaustion rate.
Who knows – a future Qld parliament with a number of Ind (Liberal) members may form their own party!!! LOL
Mighty worrying times ahead for the non-Labor side in Qld.
Ruawake,
Seems one can wipe one’s bottom with your instant political analysis
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23954060-2,00.html
Hmmm, also don’t understand the brouhaha about this Newspoll, and very much appreciate the update from William on Kororoit. Rudd, in my view, has been preparing the groundwork, is a very determined pollie, let’s call him the Northern ear wax Wombat, if you like. In my view, he’s going to take climate change adjustment on with the same determination we have seen since he became leader of the then opposition. If the global economy doesn’t tank (see AM Report from BIS), he’s got a truly tremendous amount of money to use, and he’s also got the power recognised by the Fed. Court as to how widely the C’wealth can act under the Corporations Law.
While Nelson et al. mess around with populist shots aimed at whoever will listen to them, for short term gain, the gov’t has been very carefully laying out the future game plan. You just had to listen to Penny Wong on local ABC this am to be taken by how coordinated an approach is being taken.
BTW, loved the loving send offs from the gov’t for Dolly’s new, as yet unconfirmed gig with the U.N and Cyprus. Don’t know how they kept from cracking up, and good luck with that Cyprus.
ABC News tonight reported that Ms Neal has decided to enforce her legal right as an MP and decline to be interviewed by police about the matter of the stat decs. I didn’t know she had such a legal right.
If true then she has confirmed a lack of genuine transperency and has wounded her claims of being victimised. Not a good look.
Ditto for her husband who is doing the same.
It is good to see tthat we are focusing on the big issues.
True sceptic – terrible look one would think in a functioning democracy that would be it for the pair of them.
An introductory primer below:
Belinda has lived in Woy Woy Bay with husband John for over 20 years. Together they have raised their two sons on the Central Coast.
Belinda has experience as a Gosford City Councillor and as a Senator. Her priorities have always been local jobs, roads, services and infrastructure. She has a practical working knowledge of government to offer the electorate of Robertson.
Belinda established and ran a small business in Erina. Belinda knows that viable local businesses and a strong economy mean more local jobs.
She was a Foundation Board member of Central Coast Mariners, and is deeply committed to the Umina United Soccer Club. Belinda has been involved in many local groups including the Community Tenancy Scheme, the Central Coast Women’s Health Centre and Child Abuse Prevention Services.
Belinda was elected as the Member for Robertson at the 2007 election.
Eddie and Sceptic, agree it’s pretty stupid, particularly because I think Rudd will hang them out to dry. I’m quite partial to The Piping Shrike’s views on this affair and recommend you read them. Just wonderfully Macchiavellian, and ring true. There’s nothing like the convoluted machinations of political party’s for good old-fashioned entertainment.
Neal has been savaged in the media and it has been a frenzy. She’s been ripped to pieces without a fair defence and it has been over the top.
But she refuses to talk to police. Why? I’d be fighting them like crazy if it were me.
It doesn’t look good for her if she won’t defend herself.
Who cares?
Meanwhile in Iraq bombings continue, in Zimbabwe people are getting tortured and in the Gaza Strip people are digging tunnels to get essential needs.
But here in Australia we have Belinda terrorising us, better watch out folks she could around the corner waiting.
They’ve both given written statements and I read where 5 of those who provided stat decs refuse to be interviewed.
It ssems Iemma has forced Della Bosca to subit to an interview.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/01/2291434.htm?section=justin
I predict Della and Belinda will have resigned within the next 10 days.
Resigned, in what sense, ESJ?
101 Edward – you maybe right Edward but why not just wait and see. The investigation is still going on.
They would only resign if found guilty by a court of something surely.
He might have meant that they are resigned to begin talking to the police.
Diogenes @ 89 -
I know this won’t really come to anything but we can dream…
Indeed we can, and not totally without hope. The ICC is to rule within a year or so on whether it will try cases based on the Nuremberg Charter. I’m not holding my breath, but even if they duck the issues now there’s always the possibility of a negative ruling being overturned in the future. War crimes don’t have a statue of limitation and many of the main players are relatively young. Let them sweat!
Our Crimes Act also applies. Unfortunately, the AFP can only proceed with authorisation from the A-G, and I doubt that McClelland is interested. I was hoping that Mike Kelly would get the gig because his background suggests he might be. But as a newbie it was always going to be a long shot. Anyway, pollies tend to look after their own.
Neal’s not going to resign her seat. Does she strike you as the type of person to give in to pressure? It is more likely she’ll be booted from the ALP (and the grounds for that might not have to do with any charges directly, but not responding to police inquiries quick enough).
The allegation of her spitting at a staff member is probably worse then yelling and screaming at them. Spitting is frown upon seriously. Just look at the footy leagues, you get the same punishment for spitting as for striking.
Steve et al,
Dont really care about the legalities, the politics means they will both go and soon.
Eddy, no one cares about the unlovely Della Boscas. For once, I agree with Marky iterated, there are more important things to consider, particularly as they play out over time.
Hmm, Rudd Warns Neal to “Co-operate or else”.
http://www.watoday.com.au/national/pm-warns-neal-to-cooperate-with-police-20080701-3007.html
Frank C., I rest my case.
108 I won’t lose a wink of sleep either way, ESJ. I’ve never been a fan of people behaving badly from either side of politics.
Rudd is likely to disendorse Neal sooner or later, probably well before the next election. Kev and Julia will take tough action if they consider Iguanagate is hurting the government.
Iemma on the other hand is as weak as piss, he’s looking for any excuse to reinstate Della Bosca as a minister.
BS Fairman #107
I think this is Neal’s problem. If she didn’t spit or carry on in an inappropriate manner then she would surely be defending her reputation. If she is being victimised then she has been clearly defamed and logic suggets she would be barrelling into the media at a million miles an hour.
I can’t see her wanting to stay as an MP for much longer. Her prospects are now shot so why bother? Nobody is supporting her. And why would she continue to expose herself and her family to the torment of recent weeks. Especially the impact it may be having on her children. Then again politicians are stubborn creatures.
Ironically the ALP may prefer her to stay in parliament and deny the Liberals a certain by-election victory. Mind you this would help Brendan Nelson in his cause to stay on as opposition leader. Every cloud and its silver lining?
Gary Bruce
Regarding Councils – they provide many services that most people are very thankful for – and more than “roads, rates & rubbish”, in many cases providing the programs and activities that state governments don’t or wont. I wont go into the many and various items they do deal with (or how underfunded they have been given what they are expected to do).
However, what I was pointing to was that Councils are a training ground for many local politicians, working through local governance issues (including understanding the basis of government and how to manage large budgets and organisations), working as a public official and dealing with the local electorate, as much as providing a good platform for getting known around your locality. If this training ground is effectively removed for one of the major parties it reduces the pool of talent from which they can draw in the future. While I’m sure that the major parties can find good candidates outside of this realm, I question the wisdom of this approach in terms of local MP’s being in touch with their local electorate – unless you simply ascribe to the notion that an MP is just a cypher for a party and it is irrelevant what their own position is.
William, back at 77, what do you think is the significance? If you’re prepared to say, that is. Might be a getting a bit ahead of myself here, but if you’re willing to say something, we’ll be all ears.
ESJ, why the infatuation with the Neal saga? It’s obvious Joe Public doesn’t give a rats, so why bother? Talk about something that sticks, like the bottom line and petrol prices.
There was this guy I used to know at a local footy club. Let’s call him E.
He’d go up to player A after a game and say something like “I’ve just been talking to B and he’s been saying your a full of BS”. None of this true of course.
He’d then go up to B and say ‘ You should hear what A’s been saying about your wife”. Again totally untrue.
E would let them both stew for a while and then contrive to manoeuvre them close to each other. Then he’d ask B something about his wife.
Of course B would immediately turn on A and it would be on for young an old.
Meanwhile E would step back a safe distance and laugh his malicious head off.
Sound familiar?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23955631-601,00.html
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-2jul.pdf
I am still stunned and shocked that according to the twisted world of Queensland conservative politics in Queensland, my abstaining to vote for them in elections is construed as ‘overwhelming support’ for them. That is what the spin from both the National and Liberal Parties implies.
If these clowns think that people abstaining from voting is overwhelming support then God help us if they ever get anywhere near running this state. The truth is that we now have a weak forced merger without overwhelming support from the grassroots of either party. It is an inherent weakness that will haunt the Pineapple Party for ever.
I’m sure that when Queensland voters show their overwhelming support for them by abstaining to vote for them they will consider they have formed a very successful marriage. They are not fit for Opposition, let alone government.
“The overwhelming support for the merger demonstrated by rank and file members of both parties renders any misgivings some powerbrokers may retain as merely academic.”
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23953459-3102,00.html
So lets get this straight. In a room of 100 people, 48 vote for a merger and 52 vote against or abstain. The result according to Brough and the Courier Mail is ‘overwhelming support’. At that rate 8 seats in an 89 seat parliament is far more of a show of ‘overwhelming support’ for the Queensland Liberals by the voting public than I had ever imagined.
115 Stewart J – I’m aware of what councils do and am happy for them to remain. I just don’t care if party polics is involved or not and don’t care who runs them. Interest in politics for me starts at the state level and moves up. I wonder how many of our state and federal reps started at council level. Now, I don’t know and could be proven wrong but I wouldn’t think it is a majority.
Peter Dutton will be live blogging in about 5 mins about petrol prices.
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/yoursay/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/what_to_do_about_fuel_prices_live_blog/
122 Gary Bruce
You’d be quite correct that many are not now coming through this way. Instead they are tending to be either high profile candidates of some kind or more worryingly are coming through a party machine. This is the new political class being talked about. The worrying aspect for me is that if there are limited numbers of potential new candidates coming through local Councils, and in increase in “political class” or high flyers, then we face rapidly losing the local representation angle of lower house MP’s, as well as a ‘coal-face’ element that is a requirement of being on Council.
Kingsford Smith as a seat is the perfect case – a number of local Councillors were vying for that seat and Carr’s seat of Maroubra. Maroubra went to one (Michael Daley) but Kingsford Smith has went to Garrett. Now as to whether which would have been better I wont say, but there is a loss of “local” representation, with the member still living in the Southern Highlands and appearing in the area for elections and photo-ops. Daley, although he is clearly not my cup of tea, is local and is more readily able to represent the population of Maroubra.
Daniel 117
I don’t think it is just ESJ who is interested in the Neal/Dellabosca incident. I would describe myself as pro-Labor yet am quite unhappy with it. It was a blatant abuse of power, and if others were coerced into signing false statutory declarations, if proven, that is an offence. Just the fact that they promised to cooperate fully with police and refused to be interviewed is misleading parliament. Under the Westminister system that is grounds for dismissal. If we complain about Howard not enforcing codes of conduct but don’t do it either then Rudd Labor will immediately lose any sense of moral credibility.
I think this has already hurt Labor federally, and it needs to be resolved quickly to end the damage. We are just about to see the budget tax cuts kick in which should improve Labor’s standing in the electorate. If Neal is a distraction from that she is politically a severe liability. And the opposition will keep asking questions until there is a clear resolution. This whole stupid thing is just giving Nelson oxygen, after Rudd and Swan had decisively defeated him in the budget sittings. I agree the original Iguana incident was not that bad, but as usual, the denial is worse than the incident itself.
Socrates, I agree with your first paragraph but think you’re overstating the impact on Labor in the electorate in states other than NSW (you could be right with NSW).
The Neal thing is hardly being reported here in Vic now. You really have to look hard to find it or watch ACA.
mcewen decision at 4.15pm today
Socrates.
Misleading parliament is not grounds for dismissal, it may be grounds for booting a minister to the backbench but not a backbencher.
The only grounds for a member losing their seat is a criminal conviction that has a penalty of greater than 12 months in prison.
They’re lining up for Dolly’s job. And Labor may not even contest it after the Gippsland thrashing.
Labor is yet to decide if it will contest the subsequent by-election after its bruising defeat in Gippsland last weekend and fears it would not improve on its current vote.
Five contenders for Downer’s plum seat of Mayo
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23956253-5006301,00.html
FWIW I think the Neal and della Bosca are a disgrace. They have lied, bullied, abused and cheated while abusing their power. That’s the type of thuggish born-to-rule crap we hated about the Rodent so they should be told to leave the Labor Party. And then resign if the police can charge them.
129 Diogenes – regarding Mayo and Labor I think that is fair enough. Why give the opposition another chance to crow? Labor has no hope of winning anyway.
As far as Neal and JDB is concerned your comments suggest the matter has been decided. IF what you say is true (and it appears to be) then I agree with you but let it all run its course first.
Gary
I doubt the Libs would get a swing in Mayo. Downer bucked the trend for a long time and was quite popular (dunno why). Now that he’s gone, if the Libs don’t get a very high quality candidate they could suffer a decent swing against them. Obviously Labor would also need a good candidate with a profile. Labor certainly won’t win but a swing to them might negate Gippsland.
I gather della Bosca is going to answer questions from the police but he can just sit there and say “Please see my written statement” while fulfilling his commitment to talk to them. It gets back to whether Party members should be judged as individuals who can act in their own best interests (and presumed innocent with no action taken unless they are found guilty) or whether they have a duty to the Party to act in it’s best interests. These things can drag on forever.
ruawake – good post by you on the Dutton blog. He didn’t answer the question though did he? He even asked and answered his own question in his answer. ” Why were pensioners angry after the May budget?”
I see pollbludger made it in to the OO today
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23954848-20261,00.html
Man they can write some utter shit at the former GG
Found this on the Federal Court’s Daily Court lists:
FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA
Victoria Registry
Wednesday, 2 July 2008
4:15 PM Judgment
VID123/2008 ROB MITCHELL v FRAN BAILEY & ANOR
http://www.theage.com.au/national/police-called-to-media-clash-with-belinda-neal-20080702-30ew.html
Will this EVER end?
1. There’s no point in Labor wasting money on the Mayo byelection, leave it to the Liberals. Maybe there’s a strong local independent who could be drafted instead?
2. McEwen? I wouldn’t be too optimistic about the decision going against Fran Bailey.
3. Igunagate: Rudd should cut Neal loose!
Agreed- BNeal should be sacked.
As for Mayo – bet Labor doesn’t run. It would be intersting to see how the Greens do though.
Either way it is wonderful news that Downeer is finally going. He is as culpable as Bush and Howard in the bloodshed of Iraq. Hope he rots. And yes Diogs – it will probably never happen, but bring on the War Crimes trials.
And then the executions Jen?
I think there have been enough executions already!
I suspect that Rudd will have to take action against Neal sooner or later. All he can really do though is to get the National Executive to kick her out of the party, ensuring that she doesn’t get preselection for the next election.
In legislative terms, this won’t impact the Government, but electorally……sheesh.
I think that she’s already ensured that Jim Lloyd will return to Parliament if he wants to – nice goin Belinda.
Even if the Iguana story went away tomorrow (not gonna happen), she still has the issue of misleading the Parliament to face over the “demon child” comments she denied making to Sophie Mirabella – that can’t be resolved until after the winter break.
Ultimately, the legalities are only part of the issue – it’s the perception of abuse of power and stubborn arrogance.
This feeds right into the “wall-to-wall Labor will be a nightmare” message that the Libs have pushed.
Both Della Bosca and Neal deserve what they get – the sheer arrogance is breathtaking.
It’s a tragedy Neal actually won in November and better candidates like George Colbran in Herbert missed out!
Optimist – what did she say to Sophie? (not that I approve…).
Neal is a thug and should be sacked. Hate it when politicians think they can act with impunity – reminds me of the whole of the front bench under Howard.
ESJ- don’t support the death penalty -hope they rot in jail though. Guantanamo preferrably.
Jen,
in main committee Neal told Mirabella that “evil thoughts will make your child a demon.”
Kind of amusing I suppose but when Mirabella complained and demanded Neal withdraw the remarks, Neal denied she made them. It was all recorded and she clearly said it – Neal’s denial could be interpreted as misleading (lying to) the Parliament.
Jen,
here you go.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_yHCUHC_t0
Iain Evans, who used to be Leader of the SA Lib Opposition, but is now a shadow minister for something obscure, has put his hand up for Mayo. His current electorate includes lots of Mayo. Looks like a brutal preselection. And Rann really doesn’t look too enthused about losing again, given his sliding popularity, so they may well not run a Labor candidate.
Iain Evans joins five contenders for Downer’s seat of Mayo
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23956253-5006301,00.html
Thanks Optimist-
what a charming example of woman-kind these 2 represent.
Makes me proud to have one.
I think that the whole Neal saga again goes to the issue of how candidates are selected for the ALP.
Progressive makes the point that Colbran missed out in Herbert, but Neal got over the line in Robertson – Colbran was exactly the sort of person that should get preselection for Labor, Neal is exactly the sort of person who should be kept out!
A serious, professional political outfit needs to recognis the value of a good hardworking member of the community and the positive impact they can have as a backbencher. Time and again, this idea is jettisoned by the ALP in favour of shoe-horning in a factional favourite against the wishes of local members (precisely what Belinda Neal tried to have happen in 2001, when she was pipped by Trish Moran).
If Labor thinks that preselection process problems are no longer worth worrying about because they’re in Government, then they are being extremely short-sighted and dare i say it, arrogant.
What exactly is the party membership of the South Australian Liberals? Ian Evans to stand for Mayo? The same old family names, over and over again. The Liberals in South Australia should be called the ‘Party of the Living Dead’ because they are like Vampires with a constant stream of the undead with the same old surnames. Does anyone ‘NEW’ ever get a chance and God Forbid if the candidate was a woman! What is even scarier is that Alexander has bred!
I think it’s worth noting that (if I’m not mistaken) Belinda Neal was one of ten NSW ALP candidates at the 2007 election who were chosen exclusively by the National Executive – no input from branch members.
Gotta wonder what the National Executive considers suitable qualities in a candidate.
Neal was playing pedantic games – she didn’t say (word for word) what Mirabella said she did, so she was right to say that.
But it was being too cute by half.
Zoom,
right you are. The fine distinction is probably what will save her on that one, but it all just adds to the story and negtive perception.
Poor old Sophie.
She was perfectly happy to make comments about Neale being a “man hater” but when Neal gives her a serve back she gets full of indignation and goes crying to the media.
Hiya Zoom!
shame to see Labor pollies engaging in the now-Opposition tactics of semantics.
IT’s not so much what she said to Sophie (not very nice I admit), but the pathetic denial. I think most Australians of whichever side of politics are fed up with this kind of behaviour. I hope Rudd shows some gumption and has her sacked.
like I said ruawake-
they’re as delightful as each other.
148
Optimist Says:
I think that the whole Neal saga again goes to the issue of how candidates are selected for the ALP.
Agree with that.
I do not agree with those who think that his has hurt the Rudd government. It hasn’t. At least, not yet. It could, depending on how Rudd handles it from now. But Rudd is correctly not doing too much until the formal legal investigations are completed. Once that is done, I have no doubt he will act swiftly and decisively. He has clearly already put Neal on strong notice about her behaviour. I’ll bet a million bucks that behind closed doors she has been well and truly read the riot act in no uncertain language.
I do not expect Neal or DellaBosca to be preselected again, and Neal is probably going to be thrown out of the party. And I won’t miss either of them.
153
ruawake
Yup, I don’t think anybody is sticking up for Sophie Mirabella. I think just punishment for them both is to be locked in a room together for a week.
149 Brenton
I hadn’t looked at the candidates names but you are right. All six are men. Given that the winner of the seat could ignore his (don’t have to say “or her”) electorate for ever while clambering up the Liberal pole, so to speak, it’s pretty telling that there are no Lib females in the running.
Just Me 156,
Aside from jeopordising Robertson, I don’t think that it has hurt Rudd particularly either, but it’s a bale of hay on the camel, so to speak.
There will need to be plenty more straws before its back breaks, but a strong, disciplined, forward-looking party would always wanna keep that hump as clean as pssible.
Did i just totally mangle that metaphor?
I can’t see what can be done by Rudd or the ALP to save Robertson. I realise that the next election is way off, but perhaps not too far – an early election is quite a possibility, particularly if they wanna get to the polls before an ETS starts to bite.
Belinda Neal is turning into the Damir Dokic of Australian politics.
Optimist 159
I always prefer a clean hump.
Just Me,
I’m not touching that remark.
hehe.
Another mangled metaphor?
go on Optimist – it’s begging for it.
I must be careful not to unleash my inner Benny Hill.
Progressive writes: “2. McEwen? I wouldn’t be too optimistic about the decision going against Fran Bailey.”
Mmm, before the result is announced I’ll get in my own guess.
I tend to agree with Mackerass on Crikey. Most likely result is a by-election and the least likely is Bailey being given the all clear, with Mitchell being re-instated somewhere in between. But a by-election would be the short priced favourite, I reckon.
Rod
At least the journo had a sense of humour.
In a statement today, the Labor MP has confirmed she called in the police after she was confronted by Channel 9 reporter Ben Fordham who mockingly shouted, “Don’t you know who I am” in reference to her earlier clash with Iguanas restaurant staff.
Fordham chased me, says Neal
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23957463-12377,00.html
Diogenes,
I agree about the sense of humour, but calling an ACA creature a journo is a bit of a stretch isn’t it?
Belinda Neal aka Damir Dokic… good work Optimist
I agree with Bolt on this one:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/what_would_this_queue_think_of_rudds_plan/
Belinda Neal aka Damir Dokic… good work Optimist
I agree with Bolt on this one:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/what_would_this_queue_think_of_rudds_plan/
John of Melbourne,
cheers.
I was gonna go with a Helen Demidenko, “Hand that Signed the Stat Dec” thing, but thought it was getting a bit obscure.
170
John of Melbourne Says:
July 2nd, 2008 at 3:37 pm
…. I agree with Bolt on this one…
Hey John. You’d agree with Bolt on most things wouldn’t you?
Is that the “Bolt” who has written Rudd off as a one term wonder? I just can’t take that bloke seriously on anything.
165
Optimist Says:
I must be careful not to unleash my inner Benny Hill.
LOL
I think Bolt even goes as far as to saying Costello could win it for the Libs next election (from what I’ve been told anyway). LOL
Bolt is an idiot. Any references to his articles to ‘prove something’ only prove that the person referencing them is also an idiot.
A life changing choice to make:
If you are sitting on a table and the staffs start to remove all the tables to create a dance floor, so people can dance, do you?
a. Go sit in the corner, where staff direct you;
b. Ignore them and have people dancing around you; or
c. Ask them “Do you know who I am!”
Sometimes taking the path less taken is not that smart
d. Don’t go for dinner at a place that turns into a disco at 9pm.
Yeah true I do agree with Bolt on most things. I must say though that I can’t see Rudd being a one term wonder but stranger things have happened.
Fran Bailey wins her seat:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/fran-bailey-wins-mcewen–finally-20080702-30k0.html
That’s true John (179), you never say never in a two horse race but it is unlikely. A realistic conservative supporter, we should have him stuffed! LOL
180 JoM it was becoming apparent after the April 22 decision that a Bailey win was the most likely outcome but you never can be sure till the last vote is counted.
I actually think Labor is quite relieved Bailey hung on to McEwen. After the Gippsland shenanigans the last thing want right now is another by-election and another potential rebuff…
Labor not contesting McEwen would not have been an option? Can you imagine it? Labor challenges the McEwen vote to the Court of Disputed Returns to seek a re-election, only to not contest the election. Ha!
The McEwen Federal Court Judgment is here.
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/federal_ct/2008/692.html
New post up on McEwen.
Bad behaviour is not the perogative of the major parties or indeed of politicians. By all means criticise individuals within parties (and I actively work to get rid of pollies who I don’t think are up to it, and indeed am doing so at the present time) but don’t draw the longer bow of condemning whole parties or the profession as a whole. (Was going to insert lawyer joke here and realised it would tar me with the same brush!)
As for Ms Mirabella, she is well known for her own bullying tactics – not only referring to members of her own party as ‘terrorists’ but using parliamentary priviledge to attack people such as Andrew Demetriou. During the last election campaign, she responded to a question from her Labor opponent on a local issue by calling her ‘weak and gutless’ and accusing her of using ‘weasel words’. (I note also she has gone to the absolutely pointless effort of a speech in Parliament since the election to attack her Labor opponent further!)
Years ago, there was a report in the Financial Review and on crikey that Ms Mirabella bit a fellow MP at a Canberra nightclub. Seems to have mysteriously vanished from the ether.
zoom- couldn’t happen to a more deserving pollie than Sophie, but denying she said it made Neal look like a clumsy fool. Happiness will be mine the day they are both gone from public office.
btw- who did sophie bite?? hope they had a tetanus shot.
I thought I made it clear I thought Neal was being too smart by half.
As I said, can’t find the details of bitegate. I know there was some altercation between two male MPs; I believe Soph intervened and one of them made a grab for her handbag so she bit him. I actually thought that was quite feisty of her.
BUT she denied it in Parliament and the denial is now the only reference I can find. It doesn’t give details, just refers to an altercation and where it was reported.
Anyway, her bullying of her opposite number is well and truly on the record. I notice that Brendan Nelson is opposed to ‘the ugly face of bullying’ and particularly when it applies to wives and mothers, so I expect the ALP candidate to receive an apology for Sophie’s slur any day now…not.
zoom
‘I actually thought that was quite feisty of her.’
well that’s one way of looking at it.
Chances are the chancers will attend interviews and refuse to answer certain questions. Certain to run on …
GB @ 132
“Peter do you agree with Brian Loughnane that Labor, in fact, said very little about petrol and grocery prices in the election campaign? ”
Duttons reply – for those who have the sense to avoid the terror.
“Thanks for your comments. What Mr Rudd did at the last election was to raise expectations in relation to petrol, grocery prices, housing affordability and general costs of living not just for families but also pensioners. Why were pensioners angry after the May budget? – because they had been led to believe Mr Rudd was going to make their lives much easier, and he basically delivered nothing new. Mr Rudd knew exactly what he was doing in lifting expectation, and in politics that can be a dangerous thing, especially if he had no intention or capacity to deliver. Thanks Peter
Peter Dutton”
Er ahem Peter that was not the question.
I then asked Mr Dutton do you agree with John Howard’s comment “that working families have never been better off” ?
Er oops again – this one went through to the keeper.
Now the Queensland Libs are trying to get Brough up as Big Chief Pineapple:
THE selection of former federal Liberal minister Mal Brough as president of a new Queensland conservative party will be the next test of the state’s Nationals and Liberal merger.
Liberals are divided over the party to be established in Queensland, despite party members voting overwhelmingly in favour of the merger to create the Liberal National Party of Queensland.
Former state Liberal president Bob Carroll said yesterday the party’s ratifying convention could dump the merger if the Nationals rejected Mr Brough.
In a postal ballot, 86 per cent of 3000 Liberals voted for the merger, although 43 per cent of members failed to vote. Nationals members voted heavily in favour of the merger in a ballot in May.
Modelled on similar lines to the Northern Territory’s Country Liberal Party, the new party will become the second-biggest conservative party federally, with more MPs than the Nationals.
As dissident Liberals warned of a possible court challenge against the Queensland move, the Nationals were set to take over both the organisational and parliamentary wings of the new party.
The Nationals will outnumber the Liberals by a 2-1 margin at ajoint party convention, giving Nationals president Bruce McIver the numbers against Mr Brough.
Mr Carroll said the Nationals would dominate the party, making it more conservative and alienating voters the Coalition needed to woo to defeat Labor in southeast Queensland. “I can’t see us now winning seats in and around Brisbane,” he said.
“These people are more likely to vote for the Greens than a party that lurches to the Right.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23955586-5006786,00.html
i must admit i had my first slight twinge of sympathy for Neal today–please note i said slight, i’ve been on the recieving end of that sort of intrusive hounding by the media in the past, to the extent of being chased into the ladies toilets by one over eager cameraman at an inquest, i could tell so many stories of having journos inviting themselves into my home via the backdoor and giving me sht when i’ve told them to get packing, my son turned the hose on one lot once.
after being ordered to leave, one lot stuck stickers all over the cars in the driveway as they went, the stickers lifted the paint when they were peeled off, a journo pal who was having coffee with us at the time can attest to it–his car copped it too, some journo’s are like a school of pirahnas in a blood frenzy.
As far as I know journalists are even further towards the scum on the bottom of the pond than politicians.
Expect Neal’s public relations stocks to rise to dizzying heights after this miserable episode.
Judy
I agree, we have a judicial process that must be followed in all cases, just because the media thinks it is a good story that will sell newspapers or advertising does not mean people are not due the scrutiny of our judicial system.
Take the case of Dennis Ferguson who has had his court case stayed because “a judge ruled he could not get a fair trial in Queensland”. The media have now traced him to his new home – further lessening any chance of conviction.
That Ben Fordham character from ACA is lower than low. He just slipped lower than Neal as far as I’m concerned, not by much, but lower.
Onya Gary you can always be relied on for the one-eyed view
Gary,
as opposed to the rest of the gang at ACA?
A reasonably good, although far too flattering article on the life and times of Alexander Downer today in the freeby edition of Crikey.
most journos are a bunch of leeches who would cut their grandmother’s throat for a good story–and what the hell if it’s maybe not the truth, as long as it’s dramatic and sensational enough, trial by media is alive and well, if it wasnt using up William’s bandwidth i could tell you some curlers. A.C.A. was a dammed good respectable program once upon a time, how the mighty have fallen!
Judy,
you are soooooo right.
Having said that, it makes me treasure the work of the few good ones.
hey Optimist, i’ve been very open about how Bob Whitington {senior Advertiser journo, dec.} became a trusted loyal friend of mine, he was my other dad and even now a couple of journos are good pals, they’ve proven over the years they would never abuse that friendship, i think they know more about my family and myself than anyone– well maybe other than major crime, others in the past have tried to insinuate themselves, our reaction is –well yeah right! i dont think it’s a coincidence that the couple we trust are also trusted to a large degree by SAPOL.
The Sniggering Troll, i thought that take on lord lunchalot in Crikey today was hilarious.
dissecting the candidates for Mayo and their chances is going to give us hours of fun for the weeks ahead lol, should we start a betting list??
perhaps by the time its over the tip will bow out and the fun can begin again.
Judy #203,
I don’t know your background and so can’t really put most of that into context. I do, however have a good understanding of how loathsome most journos are when they prize a scoop or a sensational distortion over integrity, honesty and sensitivity to human suffering and the complexities of real life..
I wonder how many coulda-been great journos have fallen into silent obscurity because they had the integrity to reject the leading principles of modern “journalism” – the ones who didn’t destroy people for a front page, who search for the truth rather than a plausible, publishable distortion of fact.
I better slow down, this is getting my blood up.
Did anyone see Hugh Mackay on teh 7.30 report tonight? I thought he was very good – outlined the risks and opportunities Rudd faced now on both climate change adn peak oil in a realistic and balanced way. He used the response to the SEQ drought to illustrate that governments can introduce tough measures against a crisis with success, provided people see that it is a genuine solution to a genuine problem.
He implied that this Friday’s Garnaut Report draft will be quite critical. It is an issue peopel who voted for Rudd expct him to act on. Labor shouldn’t worry that some people will say its too tough – those people will never vote Labor anyway. But far more people who changed vote in 2007 will be wanting Labor to act. It should be interesting.
Optomist, i hope this link works for you, it tells a little of the background.
http://www.trutv.com/library/crime/serial_killers/predators/adelaide/murders_3.html
So Edward you’ve taken on a new role, sniping. I actually thought you were better than that. My mistake.
206 Socrates – it was good. He was fair and reasonable.
Judy,
I can only try to imagine – i don’t really know what else to say.
Harry “Snapper” Organs @ 32 (Fran’s our man thread) -
The LNP’s playing of populist politics is just playing with death of many species, maybe our own. The planet will survive, probably, but we may not.
I long ago concluded that we humans lack the humanity to save ourselves by undoing the damage we inflict on the living planet. That in the end avarice/greed, ignorance and sheer bloody minded stupidity will win out.
Increasingly I’m coming to believe this will be a good thing.
I’ve never been much troubled by the certainty of my eventual demise, just disappointed I’d never know how the human story pans out. Seems I just might live long enough to find out after all.
O.K. takes deep breath and thanks again to Mayoferal for pointing out I was making an edjeet of myself, very kindly, on the other thread.
Seriously, I’d suggest reading the articles by Brian at Larvartus Prodeo. I’ve needed to go back to them a number of times to really get my head around what’s happening, because it’s so very, very bad. I hadn’t realised just how bad it is. I mean I knew it was bad. Just not that bad.
We can take the path of deciding we’re a rotten species, as Mayoferal is suggesting. And it’s very tempting to do so, given the appalling series of deaths that have occurred over the past few weeks, Kreist, toddlers weighing the same as newborns, starved to death in a house where neither their mother or father notices at all?
MayoFeral @ H.S.O., call it fanciful if you will but i’ve a great belief in the law of karma, the human race has uncaringly gone full out to just about destroy our beautiful planet and i believe we have to back pedal and reverse quick smart to try and undo some of our vandalism, we have a very slim chance to correct things and heal the earth, i listen to the coalition take their anti climate change stance in despair,it’s pure populism and they dont seem to realise just what they’re doing–or care, all for a handful of votes that still won’t get them into government, anything to play spoiler against the government policies, a bit like fiddling while Rome burns,i fear for my grandies and their future or lack of it, the scales have to balance and we have to answer for what wer’e doing.
Hello Judy, do please go and have a look at what Brian has taken a good deal of time and effort to compile. It will take some time to get your head around it. It certainly did mine.
If any of the human species are to survive, it’s going to be nasty.
It’s why I put forward the idea that perhaps global climate change may be beyond the usual ideas about the political divides.
Quarterly Newspoll
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-3jul.pdf
Thanks James – I’ve added an update to this post.
Oh Dear, now floor crossing Barnaby will be able to vote in the Liberal Leadership votes as well. What a circus this Pineapple Party will become!
Mr Truss insisted the federal Coalition arrangements would change little with the new party, as Liberal and Nationals MPs from Queensland would continue to sit in their partyrooms, and not as a separate party.
“What will happen is that the party will be the state wing of the federal parties,” Mr Truss said.
“Not much will be changing in Canberra.”
However, Queensland Nationals senator Barnaby Joyce said the new entity would be constitutionally a division of the federal Liberal Party at the same time it was affiliated with the federal Nationals. “There’s nothing to stop me going into the Liberal partyroom and voting on who is going to be the Liberal leader,” Senator Joyce said.
“Under the party constitution, MPs can choose whichever partyroom they want to sit in. People could chop and change between partyrooms.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23960612-5006786,00.html
The Newspoll quarterly figures for SA (61-39 tpp) make it look cetain, in my view, that Labor will contest Mayo.
They could not bring themselves to put this on the frontpage of The Australian online.
Labor retains huge Newspoll lead over Coalition.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23960599-5013871,00.html
same old, same old bumbling Downer, i dont know whether to just sit back and watch his expected egotistical stuff up in Cyprus or feel sorry for whoever nominated him, i know Rudd endorsed the man but what else could he do without it looking like a bit of political spite?, all we can do is pray he doesnt start another civil war over there, hmmm they’ll have to gag him if this new consultency is to survive–but then again he learnt french in one easy lesson {so he says} so i guess he’ll be able to spout his condescending platitudes in ten different languages by the end of the year for them.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23960619-5013871,00.html
The Fiberals Greg Hunt in full flight and showing his newfound economic credentials again.
http://economics.com.au/?p=1609
Steve, i doubt ANY of the coalition know just what stance to take on anything, from Nelson down they’re running around like a gaggle of headless chooks, we have to check each morning to find out just what the policy of the day is, it’d be good though if they’d check with each other first so at least they sing in unison.
each morning Nelson sticks a pin in the willwe/wontwe graph on his desk, Turnbull cant drag himself from his mirror {telling himself how wonderful he is} Costello tosses a coin each morning to see if he’ll go or stay today –and whether the weather is right for the odd game of golf, Bishop obviously layers the warpaint on thick and practises the bitchy smile and hypnotic stare, Abbott is on his knees wearing his hair shirt and asking the pope why his prayers to save them all hav’nt been answered, saying that though, to give this unsavoury mob their due, Downer has finally come clean on the worse kept secret in parliament and is bowing out, Howard certainly made sure with his egotistical hubris that when he left “his party” would find it hard to survive without him, but then again, after each dictater gets dethroned the place is in turmoil till water finds it’s own level so i guess they may come good—eventually!!
Old School Newspoll quarterly breakdown is up. The nostalgia brings a tear to me eye it does… (sniff)
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/07/03/newspoll-quarterly-breakdown-2008-1st-edition/
Possum
you’re not wishing us back to pre the last election are you???
Steve- you are in the wrong place. The Kumbaya crowd are we Obama supporters over on the US election thread.
Maybe Rudd will do like he did with Gippsland, a long campaign offering plenty of opportunity for Call me Brenda to squander funds?
Re Andrew Bolt, he is not honest: one instance I saw he changed the text of a blog, initially he said “Spin: Rudd promises no Chinese will guard the torch. Fact: Olympic official . . . Chinese will guard the torch” This later got changed when what Rudd said was shown to be fact not spin!
Here’s a classic example of the misleading & blatantly false guff that Bolt continues to come out with.
If a trend line is drawn through the graphs that Bolt uses to make his point, then the complete opposite emerges. There is a easily identified warming trend over the past 20 years.
http://blogs.news.com.au/couriermail/andrewbolt/
Hilarious!
How stupid can the Daily Telegraph go? From today’s on-line edition:
Bushfire Bill,
did the Tele reveal what sort of testing was employed to determine the non-demon status of baby Mirabella?
Did Sophie call the baby “Damian”?
“Did the Tele reveal what sort of testing was employed to determine the non-demon status of baby Mirabella?”
Now that you mention it, no they didn’t.
That quote should have read,
Seeing as Benny is coming soon, could we perhaps get him to cast a Papal eye over said child and settle this once and for all?
On another odious page of the Tele, Pies has this to say:
As I recall, Murphy was acquitted on appeal, Lawrence was charged and acquitted of perjury, and Belinda Neal and Della Bosca have merely exercised their right not to be formally interviewed by police, a right which is absolute and cannot have any implications deduced from it in any legal sense. That’s three instances, THREE in 25 years, all of which have not involved one iota of proven criminal conduct, two of them failing to prove criminal conduct. Yet Pies dismisses all of this by writiing “Whaty is it with Labor politicians and the law?” and putting more onus on politicians to just cave in and admit guilt (even, it seems, if there is none) with the lazy sentence, “It’s part of the deal.”
I also remember one certain Alexander Downer forgetting umpteen occasions on which he failed to perform his duty as foreign Minister by forgetting clear advice he had received that AWB was rorting the OFF scheme.
What about Lexy, Pies? Didn’t he do exactly the same thing you’re accusing Neal and Della Bosca (as well as Murphy and Lawrence) of doing?
Pies really is a low act, sure porky Lionel Murphy QC died of untreatable cancer to avoid your forensic scrutiny.
“Lionel Murphy is one of the few judges of the High Court of Australia who has left his mark on the history of the country. He has argued with immense learning and great passion for trial by jury, the rights of the Aborigines, the liberties of the individual against the State, the Corporations and the Churches, and the rights of the Commonwealth against the States. Lionel Murphy is a child of the Enlightenment. He has devoted his public life to the abolition of ignorance, superstition and tyranny. He belongs to the great tradition of those who believe human beings had the capacity to abolish every form of domination, of class over class, parent over child, man over woman, woman over man, of race over race, and spiritual bully over sceptics and agnostics. All his life he has had an eye for the humbugs and the moralisers. Perhaps that is why the conservatives have never felt comfortable with him. He is one of those human beings who want all human beings to have not only life, liberty and the opportunity to pursue happiness: he wants all human beings to have life and have it more abundantly. These judgments are a testimony to his faith and his courage. The victims and the oppressed will read them as the words of a man who gave them hope.”
Prof. Manning Clark AC
I feel sorry for that baby having Sophie Mirabella as a mother!
Bushfire Bill @ 230 -
Seeing as Benny is coming soon, could we perhaps get him to cast a Papal eye over said child and settle this once and for all?
Yes please! I want at least a Cardinal to certify the child’s state before I believe it isn’t spiritually tainted by the bile from its mother’s tongue. And an independent chief godbotherer at that.
Mind you it’s probably all a moot point. What little I know of Mirabella I gained here. Even if only half is true then the child is unlikely to turn out to be the well rounded, caring individual most parents would wish for. I suspect that is what Neal was getting out, rather than forecasting possession from the netherworld.
One of Sophie’s gems.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/liberal-mp-attacks-frothing-fraser/2008/01/05/1198950131148.html
was it born at 6pm and did it weigh 6.6lb?
Heard from Belinda Neal’s police interview
Belinda Neal: Do you know who I am!!
Police 1: Yeap, inmate 94621 of cell 4
Glen Milne at the Walkley Awards – Please anyone Do you know who I am.
I’m Brendan Nelson – “Can anyone tell me who I am?”
I’m the glorious cane toad “can anyone tell me WHAT i am”.
Actually Sophie had a Girl.
Well 3×6 does equal 9, plus the extra 6 ounces is rather ominous :-0)
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=495232
If Kevin Rudd wants to do something tough, populist, and economically responsible all at the same time, he could do worse than withdraw federal clearance of Gunns pulp mill. Gunns still haven’t got finance approved. See
http://news.smh.com.au/business/gunns-negotiating-bank-syndicate-on-mill-20080703-30yu.html
This story is just silly. Gunns have asked for and been granted a six month extension to arrange finance. No names of potential financiers are given. ANZ withdrew in May, and obviously nobody has agreed terms since. The finance market is very tight now (heard of the “credit crunch”?) and so there must be real doubt they will get the money. Normally these deals are done behind closed doors, so that people don’t give their bargaining positions away. Gunns must be desperate to make this sort of announcement, which telegraphs to any potential investor that they have them over a barrell and can charge Gunns as high an interest rate as they like.
As I have said before on previous posts, serious economists like Peter Brain have concluded that this thing is a net loser for the Tasmanian economy. It will destroy more jobs in the wine, tourism and fishing industries than it is likely to create. Killing this turkey now will mean less pain and cash wasted in the long run. If we must pork barrell in Tasmania, give them some wind farms.
#241 Did you say caesarean section? FFS she qualifies for the baby bonus – geeeeez I wonder if it was delayed?
I meant “increased baby bonus”
ruawake @ 238 -
Glen Milne at the Walkley Awards – Please anyone Do you know who I am
Yes, waiter, get me another beer and don’t have one yourself. You’re pi**ed enough already!
…and it had to be CUT out of her! IT WAS A DEMON!!!!
Maybe Sophie will be happy for Alexandra to wear a head scarf to hide the little demon horns.
Sorry William.
Has anyone had a look at Possum’s update on the quarterly Newspoll? Possum asks the question why the female demographic might be a bit soft for Labor. I couldn’t think of any particular reason, can anyone else?
Lionel Murphy is one of the few judges of the High Court of Australia who has left his mark on the history of the country. He has argued with immense learning and great passion for… the liberties of the individual against the State,
Ya think Piers would be grateful for that at least. Guess he just doesn’t have the generosity in him to acknowledge an opponent’s good work.
•••••••••••••••••••
And, folks, I loathe Sophie Mirabella as much as anybody on this site, but can we leave her child and mothering out of it? Your comments on this subject are just plain ugly and do you no credit.
Ruawake,
Yes Manning Clark hardly an objective source. Murphy was such a great man that the records had to be sealed for 50 years by special legislation.
ESJ
I think you will find that the relevant documents are in the hands of the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President of the Senate. Don’t believe everything Pies says as gospel.
“Don’t believe everything Pies says as gospel. ”
Amen to that.
Nah, don’t believe ANYthing Pies says as gospel.
Yeah, OK… ANYthing.
Pies listed all those Labor dodgers, avoiding the law, stringing things out to the bitter end, snd so on and so forth.
The only thing he forgot to mention was that all the people he mentioned were acquitted as a result of their insisting that due process was followed.
What did he expect them to do? Fess up, put their wrists out for the handcuffs and say, “You got me g’vner. I done it. Bang to rights.”?
Scorpio @ 226. The usual noise of varying season’s does not support your hypothesis either. After the peak in 1998 we have had slightly cooler weather over the following decade. With increased ice in the Antartic and decreasing ice in the Artic, again it is hard to draw conclusions.
As Dr Roy Spencer from NASA says “Contrary to popular accounts, very few scientists in the world – possibly none – have a sufficiently thorough, “big picture” understanding of the climate system to be relied upon for a prediction of the magnitude of global warming. To the public, we all might seem like experts, but the vast majority of us work on only a small portion of the problem”
Yes let’s talk about all the Labor matyrs – how pathetic
ESJ, they’re not Labor martyrs. They’re innocent people. They’ve availed themselves of the the full gamut of the legal system and been found not guilty.
Pray tell, what’s your problem with that?
ESJ,
Landeryou is running some good stuff on Jamie Briggs one of the contenders for Downer’s seat of Mayo. The interesting stuff is about how Workchoices came to be. It’s good background how the Libs did themselves out of office.
I remember during the campaign you were sceptical of the impact of Workchoices. This will remove all doubt about it’s importance in seeing Howard and co consigned to the dustbin of history.
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2008/07/briggs-role-in-howard-downfall.html
Why am i not surprised that GG is a Slanderyou fan?
GG,
Yes I was wrong.
EStJ
Um BB,
Defo laws prevent more comment on that one but suffice to say the phrases “money” and “senior labor identity” are not strangers.
Last refuge of the scounderl, ESJ. The old “I know certain things but can’t say them” scam.
PATHETIC.
You can argue your points fairly well when you want to. Why do you resort to this crap, mate?
Put up or shut up.
Oh I do not mind an argument BB but to take up your challenge would be unfair to WB.
Edward, your becoming the master of sniping. Not a good look.
Gawd almighty, what has happened to everyone here? I asked a question back at 248 about whether or not anyone had any ideas about a particular question. Response, rubbish from both LNP and Labor supporters.
I ask you how long the person known to his mother as William, might want to up with it put?
Q&A was good viewing again tonight! I like Joe Hockey, he seems a decent sort of bloke who was given the shit job last year of selling Work Choices.
Nicola Roxon was the revelation of the election campaign for me, and she’s kept on doing a good job as Health Minister.
Hockey and Roxon seem to like each other, that’s obvious LOL!
The only thing that peed me off tonight was Tony Jones, continually running the line that the government is in trouble!
Optimist,
I think you will find William (who art in moderation) regularly uses Landeryou as a source for his editorials and information. Therefore, your point is?
Well lets be honest here – I think all of you are listless because there is not much to talk about to be frank.
There appears to be an emerging narrative that Rudd is running a do nothing government. No doubt that is frustrating for those who expected a neo Whitlamite restoration. Further it appears the big idea to seize the agenda is emissions trading.
Truly anyone who thinks the government is going to get emissions trading right has rocks in their head. It will be about as right as the GST.
GG,
I think the point is optimist thinks you have committed thoughtcrime.
Straight out of the Milne playbook. Why were the opposition complaining about so many bills being sent through parliament then? Can’t have it both ways…
“The only thing that peed me off tonight was Tony Jones, continually running the line that the government is in trouble!” And that the “honeymoon” is over. A member of the audeience disputed this and the audience applauded him.
“There appears to be an emerging narrative that Rudd is running a do nothing government.” Which cannot be substantiated.
What has he (Rudd) actually done?
ESJ,
I agree with Gary.
There is a media driven narrative that Rudd…..
The reality on the ground is that people I talk to are quite happy with Rudd and Labor atm.
Oh fergodsake, progressive. How lovely is Joe Hockey? Go check out his actual record on industrial relations. This is the man who said that the then gov’t.’t. ministers, did not understand that workers would be worse off, but passed it anyway.
fair enough GG, newspoll would seem to confirm that view.
Eddie, I refer you to Possum’s site for a bit of reality. You guys.
Better stiil Edward, in the 6 months he has been in government what would you expect Rudd would have done by now?
I blame Howard and Andrews for Work Choices, Hockey was just the bloke called in to plug the hole in the dyke!
I thought the budget was p.ssweak actually GB.
If you were truly committed to a fair society you might have:
a) Wound back the 50% CGT discount;
b) abolished the tax free super payouts; AND
c) increased funding (substantially) for homeless services
Correct me if I am wrong GB but that might actually look like a real honest to goodness Labor program.
Harry,
Agree. The latest post has some real insight over time as to what has been happening.
Very valuable contributions in the comments section too!
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/07/03/newspoll-quarterly-breakdown-2008-1st-edition/#comment-11527
248
Harry “Snapper” Organs Says:
Why the soft support from women?
My own view is women where more offended by tampa, locking innocent people and children up and the war in Iraq than men. They blame Howard and they are now slowly getting over it.
What I also find interesting is the vote in the west, it is still neck and neck, I would have the thought the antics of the local liberals would have put an end to that.
ESJ: All your lot have got going for them is a scare campaign on petrol prices, aided and abetted by the MSM! I grant you that is effective in political terms, but it’s a very short term thing! Where are the opposition’s long term plans and policies?
Progressive, GB asked me a question and I think I gave a fair answer. Criticism of Labor does not necessarily imply support of the alternative.
Come on Edward, that is just debating the budget. You may not think he’s gone far enough in the budget in certain areas, and that’s fair enough, but he has done things, things you just don’t like. By the way, had he done what you suggested Labor would last just under 3 years in office.
What would you have expected Rudd to have ACHIEVED in 6 months of government. The budget sets out the next year of spending etc.
ESJ,
You are a tough taskmaster and I cannot disagree with the policy notions described.
However, Rudd and Co. were effectively locked in to delivering the tax cuts et al the Howard set up. Otherwise they would not have wonethe election. It was either almost match or die.
Rudd has spent a lot of time on addresseing the spiritual side of things e.g. Sorry and ratifying Kyoto and telling the Chinese off about Tibet.
However, there is considerable work being done on Water, Aboriginal Affairs and Tecnology (rolling out highspeed broadband). Look, results will appear soon.
Besides, most people don’t expect much from Government. They just want to see them getting on with it.
Labor are doing that
To be fair to Edward I don’t think it is accurate to lump him in with conservative supporters. I seem to recall him telling me he admired the way Keating did things. Correct me if I’m wrong Edward.
LOL GB, I am fine with the symbolics – apology, kyoto etc.
Actually I do not see the budget as sort of a good housekeeping guide, it allows you to re-order your spending and taxation priorities too!
Yeah GB – I do not believe we will see the likes of PJK for a long long time. He still rocks in my view.
Fair point GG – The COAG stuff may produce results but I am not holding my breath, after all it took us 86 years to agree on uniform food standards in this country.
What about Hockey Joe! He was asked on Q&A if he wants to lead the liberal party? He replied with the usual script of how good Brenda is and how she should be given more time.
The truth is Schrek would love lead the fiberals. Joe, you are on a hiding to nothing. The current PM is one of the best we have ever seen. By the way EStJ knows it. He should switch to state politics to become the next Premiere of NSW for certain.
Hockey was also asked what the fibs stand for? His reply – RHETORIC! They can’t articulate what they stand for because they don’t even know what they stand for.
So that’s it is it? That’s all you expected that Labor would have achieved in the first 6 months of office, bringing down a budget that would take effect over the NEXT 12 months. Somehow I don’t think that is what the “this government has done nothing” people are referring to.
I would still like to see what E.S.J would have to say if he actually went and read the articles at Larvatus Prodeo by Brian. I doubt he has the stomach for it.
When is Rudd going to appear on Insiders?
Harry and Charles
Interested in your comments on Possum’s excelent analysis. I don’t know why the women’s vote might have chnaged, however I would make another observation – the Labor young vote (18-34) has trended down. I can’t help thinking that the perception that Labor would act cautiously on climate change might hurt here. If as reported Garnaut recommends serius action on Friday and Rudd accepts that it will eb interesting to see if Labor gets a bounce here. I happen to think Labor now has an opportunity to win back voters if they act on climate change, since this is surely one issue that at least some voters chose them on at the last election. Greg Hunt’s sily statement that the coalition might prefer to wait (i.e keep doing nothing) on emissions trading will surely dissillusion the progressive voters.
Well GB, if you cant do the big things in your first year …..
HSO – So? Rudd will win re-election, hardly surprising or painful to me..
Oh for goodness sake, John of Melbourne, that is of no consequence at all. What I want to know is whether or not you have read the articles I have referred to repeatedly on climate change?
John, who cares and why go on a program that is watched by a small politically interested, biased (either way) audience. Other ministers go on representing the government. It is unimportant. He wouldn’t be the first PM to stay away from a program for his own reasons.
Why just the first year Edward? Why not over the first 3 years? Better still let’s really plan carefully for the next 10 years. Now there’s a novel idea. Careful planning instead of, say, deciding to spend 10 billion on a non existent water plan, without cabinet consideration and without treasury input.
HSO I did have a quick read of a couple of pages, thank you.
I ‘m yet to be convinced on climate change. I have read on Andrew Bolt’s site that the climate stopped warming in 1998. What are your thoughts?
Kevin Rudd is still adjusting to being in government. He will recover; he will recapture the momentum; and he will win the next election with an increased majority. The “do nothing tag” has been applied to the Victorian Labor Government for eight years – with the result of two landslide election victories. Why, I just take the dog for a walk if I want to see what Labor has done for my town. If that isn’t enough, I get in the car and drive to the next town. I could even go back to the last school I taught in and look at the new science labs (part of the $1.4 billion capital expenditure on schools in Labor’s first two terms), but I really don’t want to go back there.
HSO according to Wikipedia, global warming predictions 2070 – 2100 there may be a 3 degrees centigrade rise if no action is taken on global warming, however on the global climate model page it reports, “… errors in model-mean surface air temperature rarely exceed 1 °C over the oceans and 5 °C over the continents” considering the greatest temperature increase is supposed to be over the continents its a pretty big margin of error.
CC,
Not to mention the opening of the East Link last weekend. Folks, in Melbourne you get queues to line up for a road opening. Two weeks ago 100,000 turned up for an open day on the new freeway.
Project is delivered six months before schedule.
The media reports whingeing from a few recalcitrants.
WTF.
oops forgot the links
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Climate_models
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_climate_model
East Link should have been toll free! Bracks lied.
John of Melbourne,
Eastlink should have been toll-free, but the Liberals promised to do something about it, then promised to have half-tolls, then dumped Robert Doyle and then said they couldn’t do anything about it. Thus, the Eastern suburbs which could have cost Labor 10-12 seats in 2006 couldn’t be bothered doing anything about it. I have never paid a CityLink toll, and I never will, but I look forward to driving on it for free in c30 years. I’ll take a few free trips on Eastlink and then boycott it for the next 3o+ years. If everyone did the same on both roads, tolls would go, as they did on the Westgate donkey’s years ago.
CC good plan but nobody will do it.
GG,
I love the way Liberal supporters are predicting the end of civilisation as we know it just as they did in 1999. That’s why I am confident of two more electoral victories for Kevin Rudd.
Logging off now… good night all
JoM,
You are right there, which is why I am relaxed about so many issues that others get stirred up about.
And good night to you.
CC,
The toll on the Westgate was about 20 cents when they abandoned it. Hardly worth collecting.
John of Melbourne. If you’ve got one curious bone in your body, you will go beyond what Bolt tells you. Unfortunately, he is a clever fool.
And as I’ve said earlier,, you need to read all of it, and go back to read it again, because the information is very dense, and you need to have a mind attuned to scientific information. This may not be something you can do. And that’s not something I would put you down for. Some brains are just wired differently.
So, If you like, and can deal with the oral and visual media, Robyn Williams Science Show and the Philosophers Zone on RN on Saturdays on RN from 12.00 pm are good.
Did you say you’ve moved to the Northern Regions of Melbourne Metro? It’s rather fab. don’t you think?
Concerning comments on Piers Akerman’s one- eyed view of “rogues” in the Labor Party:
Every party has people who behave badly and that is just human nature. Conservatives have had their problems too. Piers may have “forgotten” the Fitzgerald Inquiry that brought the Joh Bjelke Petersen Gov’t under scrutiny in the early 90’s. Two of the ministers of that gov’t were jailed. Joh himself was charged but due to a deadlocked jury there was no verdict. It is fair to say the NP in Qld have never really recovered and have never been able to totally wind back the negative momentum set up at that stage.
Concerning the decline in optimism by people in the last 6 months:
There has been a marked decline in the last 7 months. But rather than been “shocking” news I think it is really the Gov’t getting through to the people that there are some long term issues. If you wait until you have absolute proof that Climate Change is happening then it will be too late for the planet. You will never get absolute proof until then. There are many things in life you must do without the final proof and so it makes sense that some of the really big things will also fall into that category.
On the eve of the Garnaut Report being made public, Rudd is in an excellent position at 55- 45. The dust is settling on the budget, the MSM and Opposition have had their go and only harped on the trivialities. The Gov’t has lost a little, but not much. It is time now for the really difficult issue. The people will decide their future and their children’s future in the nature of their reaction to whatever the Gov’t proposes.
Don’t expect to ever drive on CityLink without paying a toll. The government is happy enough to keep extending Transurbans’ contract, as long as Transurban agree to keep paying for roadworks. The tunnels are going to need major work on them in 30 years, if not sooner, this means a long contract extension once that work is done. Same goes for EastLink, these roads will always require maintenance which the operators will be happy to pay for in exchange for contract extensions.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23965899-5001021,00.html
BELINDA Neal’s political career is over, with the Labor Party refusing to preselect her for the 2010 federal election.
Chiefs at Labor’s Sussex St headquarters have resolved to ensure Ms Neal is blocked from candidacy on the Central Coast seat of Robertson in the wake of the Iguanas-gate scandal.
The New South Wales branch of the Labor Party has denied a newspaper report that it has resolved to block federal MP Belinda Neal from standing again for her seat of Robertson on the state’s central coast.
Mr Bitar says there will be no formal decision about federal preselections until after a boundary redistribution due to take place some time next year.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/04/2294116.htm
So as usual the Terror is wrong.
Speaking of redistributions, the final Queensland decision on the redistribution should be released by the Electoral commission of Queensland today.
There is a white elephant in the Global Warming debate
The cause of Global Warming is over population, apart from using resources, we breath oxygen in and CO2 comes out.
Therefor even if we do not use coal or oil of any sort, CO2 level will continue to climb, so the white elephant question for all the “environmentalist” is, who do we shot first?
TurningWorm @ 314
Don’t expect to ever drive on CityLink without paying a toll.
It’s beyond my understanding how voters anywhere would allow governments to con them into paying to use roads that they’ve already paid through the nose for many times over.
With the amount of money that’s ripped of taxes, excises and duties not only should the roads be free to use, they ought be paved in gold bars!
Fortunately, the one time it was seriously proposed here the government was put back in its box real quick, but it’s a right bugger avoiding toll roads whenever I visit Melbourne.
Neal is toast, if Rudd has anything to do with it!
dovif @ 318 -
so the white elephant question for all the “environmentalist” is, who do we shot first?
Those that ask stupid questions would be high on my list!
dovif
Well I’d go for all the denialist that can’t read scientific papers. But a mile in a car is worth about one human life, so I suggest we get rid of the cars first.
Dovif @ 318; John Howard – TWICE!
Good ‘ol Malcolm up and about making rash statements again this morning re climate change.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23967294-5003402,00.html
The Pineapple Party is going to have a dearth of new talent for years because preselection has been scrubbed to preserve the current members. Brenda doesn’t like change.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23959330-3102,00.html
Dovif
The CO2 breathed out by all life on the planet is greatly exceeded by emissiosn from burning fossil fuels and land clearing. Of course, in an indirect way you are right – more people means more energy use, and that has the main impact. So we do need to stop population growth in the long term. For a clear explanation of CC science, I recommend the downloads at the British Meteorlogical Office:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/
If I might shoot down one more furphy about climate science, it really is quite accurate now. Predicting weather from day to day is uncertain, hence the error rates in the models JOM quoted. But in terms of long term averages it is pretty accurate. They are much more accurate than economic models for example
Also, thanks to all the research in the past ten years, the climate models are now more accurate even for day to day weather forecasts. The three day forecasts now are as reliable as teh daily forecasts in the past. Predicting storm cells (thunderstorms) is still difficult, but your typical 24 hr forecast of maximum/minimum temperature and whether it will rain is accurate within 2 degrees more than 90% of the time.
The hard bit in climate modelling is predicting the future because that also depends on human beings any changes to future human behaviour, because human activity now causes about 70% of net emissions.
Now for something different:
“FACTIONAL warfare within the Liberal Party has erupted over the presidency of the new conservative party to be established in Queensland.
Tensions between Liberal factions mounted as Queensland’s Nationals president Bruce McIver came under pressure to back away from plans to contest the presidency of the new party.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23966380-5006786,00.html
Fancy factional warfare breaking out by Friday when Monday we were told by the Liberal Party bosses that the merger had ‘overwhelming support’.
Will Barnaby, Ron, Paul, Bruce and Warren vote for Brendan as leader? Probably if Malcolm is the alternative.
Another cunning plan Baldrick.
ruawake, can’t wait for the Pineapple Party disease to spread nationally where Clive Palmer will determine who is the PM.
HSO all good I am a mechanical engineer and am accustomed to scientific examination and modelling.
Check this out: http://mclean.ch/climate/IPCC_review_updated_analysis.pdf
Will voters in South East QLD vote for Lawrence Springborg? I think not!
I agree emition from car when used is higher than people, but there are 100x more people than cars, and cars stop emitting when resting and people do not.
It would be interesting to see how much people’s respiration contribute to a % of CO2 into the atmosphere.
People will never be carbon nuetral, maybe all the Greenies can hold their breath, they would be
dovif
With the exception of flatulence people do not breath out CO2. They breathe in air – oxygen is absorbed – then they breathe out the same air less the oxygen.
Progressive, if you looked at the courier mail blog whenever the Pineapple Party get a favourable soft story the hacks cheer in unison. None can name the seats they are going to win but hey, never let facts stand in the way of organised propaganda.
What the National Press Gallery haven’t realised is that if the Queensland Liberals don’t implode at their two days of constitutional conventions on the 26 and 27 July, then the changes begin to sweep through Canberra from the next sittings. All backed and signed off by the Federal Liberals.
Rauwake are you being funny?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respiration_system
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metabolic_waste
334 Don’t be prepared to die in a ditch defending that theory, ruawake.
HCO3 look it up
Although I do see your point, it is no sillier than climate change denialists denying obvious truth.
Ruakwake I looked it up and I don’t get it.
Steve the world hasn’t warmed since 1998
John
90% of CO2 in the body is in the form of bicarbonate – this is excreted through the kidneys not lungs.
340 Steve the world hasn’t warmed since 1998
I won’t be dying in a ditch defending that either. There are obviously more problems with air pollution than warming anyway.
I don’t understand the rush for an emissions trading scheme.
Assume we have a tank that is leaking alleged global warming gases. The tank has 100 holes and each hole represents 1% now Australia emits approximately 1% of alleged global warming gasses and is therefore responsible for one hole in the tank, the rest of the world the other 99 holes. Now Kevin Rudd wants to bring our emissions down 60% so effectively he wants to plug up 60% of the one hole in the tank. Now to do this we all have to suffer alot of pain and ruin our economy yet no matter what we do the other 99 holes in our tank will continue to leak alleged global warming gases. Can someone please explain where is the benefit?
Thanks Ruawake.
John
“Now to do this we all have to suffer alot of pain and ruin our economy…” is not accurate.
Consider a guy who used to make wooden buckets – put out of business by the guy who made metal buckets – who was also put out of business by the guy who makes plastic buckets.
Should we prop up the wood guy, the metal guy or the plastic guy?
“The world hasn’t warmed since 1998″
Bet you get that from Dolt’s blog too. As it happens, it is wrong. Greenland icesheet melting, Arctic melting retreat of glaciers etc wouldn’t be happening at increasing rates if it was true: just a matter of wrong ocean temperature measurements.
What do people think re the MD agreement at COAG yesterday? Looks like Rudd let Brumby gut the agreement of all real effect
Coalition against lifting cap on water trading: yup, more important to save a couple one horse towns than the river system watering our most important food growing areas! Sheesh, that sort of thinking makes me despair of Australia at times!
Re humans breathing out CO2. Sure they do. But that carbon came, ultimately, from plants which use the CO2 to grow and make oxygen. That is part of the natural cycle. The same for methane emissions from cows, these will eventually be fixed by plants.
It is the burning of fossil fuel, and destroying forests which act as carbon sinks, that causes global warming (and freezing if the ‘Atlantic conveyer’ ever stops running.
The Electoral Commission of Queensland has published a list of Public Objections to the propsed distribution.
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/asp/index.asp?pgid=392
as Jovial said, I guess Antarctica and Greenland are just one-offs are they? Hasn’t warmed my ass
349 Dario just a couple of bad air days according to the Boltettes.
And last year the same mob were getting all excited about nuclear power being needed to solve the problem.
Ruawake I do see your point but INHO solar, wind etc are backward means of producing energies. True an electron is an electron is an electron but it’s the amount of energy one gets from something that counts.
Was iot not reported last month that the North Pole and Greenland have been completely snowed in? I believe it was.
Steve it would appear that some on Labors side are finally catching up to nuclear i.e. Mr Car and the Union guy.
Snow is not ice! Greenland ice covers a smaller extent and is much thinner than even 20 years ago!
John of Melbourne Says:
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:47 pm
People like you really don’t matter anymore, Greenland is sliding into the sea, you and Andrew Bolts inability to understand the science isn’t going to change the situation. Climate change is on, mild concern is going to change to panic as everyone including you and Andrew Bolt are forced to face reality, the sea level seen over the last 1000 years is not a god given height.
There was a land bridge between Australia and Tasmania 40 thousand years ago. When the evidence that the planets sea levels changes quite regularly and by large amounts why this inability to accept it’s going to move again?
We know the sea level depends on the level of carbon dioxide in the air, we know ice ages end when volcanoes put more of the stuff up there, we know humans have added more, what exactly is your problem, we are not talking quantum mechanics here, the science is pretty dam simple.
Charles I agree change is constant and inevitable. Can you tell me please if the level of carbon dioxide has a linear relationship to global warming.
12.30PM: Garnut releases his report. You can hear it live on News Radio.
This looks very ominous to me. From your link about Brough being dumped.
I don’t know how many Nationals Members and Senators from Queensland there are but if they all park themselves in the Liberal Party party room, what then?
Steve there are two. Barnabty Joyce and good old Ronald Boswell.
LTEP, as ruawake said earlier, “Barnaby, Ron, Paul, Bruce and Warren” can all park themselves in the Liberal Party room in Canberra now and there is nothing anybody will be able to do to stop them, if the Pineapple Party is formed.
John of Melbourne Says:
July 4th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
My view.
The reality of life, very few complex systems are linear and our science really hasn’t got past linear modeling. When the melt is on, the melts is on and it’s started big time.
I think it is all over, we have forced the system into a new mode and the changes in the next 10 years are going to cause panic. Two more summers to the next election, five to the next, eight to the next. Each summer is going to highlight just how non linear the system is.
Have a look at the second picture here.
Thats an iceberg going down the drain, an iceberg that is several thousand feet thick.
Apologies if it has already been linked.
Peter Hartcher eviscerates Dolly Downer….
http://www.smh.com.au/news/peter-hartcher/empire-ends-for-alexander-the-notsogreat/2008/07/03/1214950947565.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
John I also don’t think it isn’t going to be the end of the world. Change is good for an economy, there are levies to be built, irrigation system to be moved and hurricanes to recover from.
And just perhaps we as a species will conclude that forcing the system is not a good idea and there will be alternate energy sources to develop.
Optimist 361
I read Hartcher first thing this morning and what a great way to start the day. I was surprised how unashamedly damming he is of Downer!
Are we expecting a Morgan this afternoon? Roy has become somewhat unpredictable.
Runawake
You might want to redo your science and biology classes
See we eat Carbohydrates, sugar etc, which are forms of Hydrocarbons H (Hydrogen) and Cs (Carbon)
To create energy, we uses the Hydrocarbon stored in our system, and they are burned by the Oxygen we breath in
CHs + O2 give H20 and C02, otherwise know as water and piss, and Carbon Dioxide.
Runawake
a. when we breath out, there is normally 5% more CO2 and 5% less O2 than the air we breath in
Do you know what happened to CO2 when it pass out with urine …… you guess it, it goes into the atmosphere
According to the web site http://www.treepeople.org/, in one year an acre of trees can provide enough oxygen for 18 people.
Would there be more trees in the world than people? I would guess there would be.
Oldtimer –
Hartcher was just brilliant. I guess he was saving this for when Downer was on the way out. Would have preferred to see it written years ago, but better late than never eh?
Here’s a short extract from the Ganuat Report at Peter Martin’s blog.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/07/if-you-read-nothing-else-today-read.html
From the Hartcher article:
“He [Downer] holds the record for the most unpopular opposition leader in 36 years,” the life of Australia’s longest-running political poll, the Nielsen poll,…
Ouch, that’s gotta hurt. And the rest of the article is a nice and long overdue skewering of that pompous pretentious popinjay.
dovif
I will not waste William’s bandwidth any more after this but I was addressing your original statement.
“It would be interesting to see how much people’s respiration contribute to a % of CO2 ”
The answer is very very very little.
If you had omitted respiration I would have not been a pedant.
Ruawake
Time for biology class again, your intelligence astonishes me
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respiration
JOM and others
You need to distinguish between air temperature and heat in the earth. Yes 1998 was the hottest year on record in terms of average air temperatures. Nevertheless the long term trend has clearly been up, and most of the years since 1998 have been higher than the years before it.
However that is heat in the air. Overall, as a fellow engineer would understand, there is far more heat stored in the oceans than in the atmosphere, since water is denser and stores much more heat energy than air. The oceans are getting hotter; especially at the surface, but also down to a depth of 3000 meters by now. That will drive the world’s cliamte (hotter) for decades to come, and is the key to the lag effects climate scientists talk about. That is why it is true that the earth is getting hotter (since 1998) even though 1998 happens to be the hottest year on record in terms of average air temperatures at recorded sites. So Bolt is wrong to say that the earth hasn’t gotten hotter since 1998; it definitely has.
Listing to Ganuat at the Press Club the most striking point he made was that if the world does nothing about greenhouse then agriculture in the Murray-Darling basin is doomed, with a worst case scenario (10% probability) that every river in the basis becomes a permanently dry ditch.
And for those who think we can continue to feed ourselves by moving farming to the north, well that will be just as dry.
We might be able to desalinate enough sea water to give everyone a drink, and maybe a shower, but producing enough to water our crops is another matter.
As he says, if we can’t address this problem now when we are as prosperous as we’ve ever been – apparently on a per capita basis we’re again richer than Americans for the first time in 70 years (big thanks to Keating), then when can we?
dovif
I admit it has been 30 years since I worked at The Research School of Biological Sciences – ANU.
But the point is that 90% of carbon that humans excrete is in the form of stuff like baking soda.
So says ru B.appSci B.Sci hons
Sorry William – end of my pedantry.
Channel 7 introduced the segment on the Ganuat Report by saying all of us will experience massive increases in petrol and electricity. Of course they maybe right but how they came up with that from this report is beyond me. No figures were given by Ganuat.
TT on 7 is now saying Rudd is “finally” doing something for seniors. H can’t win. damned if he doesn’t, damned if he does.
Ruawake and Dovif,
Yes…. you are the smartest people in the room now move on.
Back to the debate I am enjoying the CO2 admissions
In fact Anna said they had an exclusive. All she did was interview Rudd and he explained what was in the budget for seniors. That was their exclusive, as though they hadn’t heard this information before.
And for those who think we can continue to feed ourselves by moving farming to the north, well that will be just as dry.
That prediction is hard to generalise. Given the clear trends of the last 37 years (since 1970, about the time global warming started kicking in), all of northern WA, and some of the north of the NT will get wetter, but the rest of the NT and all of Queensland will get drier.
http://tinyurl.com/6ehdyf
You also need to remember that the northern areas of Oz (being in the monsoons tropics) are coming off a high baseline to start with, much higher than southern Oz (maybe with one or two exceptions). For example, the average annual rainfall for Darwin is about 1700 mm, with a minimum of about 900 mm, and a maximum of about 2500 mm.
Though the rain up here is seasonal, with almost all of it falling from Dec-Apr, so it needs to be captured and stored.
I hope the Govt. can separate the ETS from the Climate Change debate. The ETS is good policy that can move us into a sustainable future.
If it gets bogged down in an argument about spurious claims on climate change (which the opponents of an ETS will attempt to do) it will end up in a farce.
Garnaut should stick to economics and not try to be a meterologist. There are no proven models available that can accurately forecast weather 1 year or 10 years ahead. I am gobsmacked that the media and many here have sucked in what I would describe as dodgy assumptions.
What is even more annoying is the assumptions made about possible temp rises based on increases in CO2. So far we have seen temps rise by 0.1C every 10 years. There has been no evidence of accelerated temps if the el nino of 1998 is stripped out of the data.
What is even more astonishing is the prediction that the Barrier Reef will not exist by the end of the century. Memo to Garnaut, travel to the Red Sea or the Phillipines where water temps are already 4C warmer than the the temps off Mackay or Townsville and corals and fish survive just fine.
Thanks to Charles @ 360 for the link to the latest of Brian’s articles at Larvatus Prodeo that I thought JoM should have a squizz at. However, Charles, a lot of
science these days is non-linear, e.g., computer, weather and brain. Positive and negative feedback loops, for instance. Quantum physics sure ain’t linear\.
On cue Zedder proves my point.
Just Me @ 380 -
That comment was based on Ganaut saying in his Press Club speech that the Kakadu wetland would cease to exist under current predictions.
If Kakadu turns dry then I assume most of the rest of the north will too.
Zedder, go have a look at the articles Charles to which has posted the link. Read all of them, then come back for a discussion.
Zedder, you are confusing weather with climate.
Weather is short term and therefore more difficult to predict; climate is long term and less variable.
I’ve been told that Queensland is sunny. If I visit tomorrow and it’s raining, do I decide I’ve been lied to? Or that I simply was there on a rainy day?
The statement “Queensland is sunny” is a statement about Queensland’s climate. It’s not disproved by one day.
The rainy day is not ‘climate’ it is ‘weather’.
When we are talking about ‘climate change’ we are not talking about the weather.
I have read charles comments and they don’t stack up against the facts. There has been decreases in artic ice and increases in Antartic ice. The data in particular is being massaged to suit certain points of view and it is disapointing that concensus science is being promoted when the data does not support this view.
Then we have Ruawake’s pedantic and condescending definitions, the assumption being that any variation with the concensus view is utterly wrong. Maybe some of you would like to join us on weatherzone where we explore this issue with more meaty science.
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=007014
I don’t care if climate change is real or not – it is irrelevant. We have a finite resource in fossil fuels, the sooner we wean ourselves off of them the better.
I see Turnbull has said Rudd is “so collosally vain and never admits that he’s wrong”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23968191-601,00.html
I think we can safely say that is the winner of the pot calling the kettle black competition for 2008.
Bizarre that Turnbull and Nelson are running the line that last year they were told they couldn’t do anything until 2012. Given they didn’t commission Garnaut; they didn’t do anything, and really had no desire to do anything of course 2012 would have been the deadline for them. (pushing deadlines is the easiest thing in govt).
Seriously if the govt can slap that arguement down then they might as well give up trying to sell this thing. What a pity there’s no question time for another 9 weeks.
Obviously the Libs have decided that they want to run the “we want to do something; but we are the only ones who will do it right” line. And Nelson is still essentially running the “we want a trading system” so long as everyone can drive cars and use electricity for the same price they can now. God I wish PJK was around to humiliate these guys.
I would agree Ruawake, I am more convinced about peak oil than I will ever be about AGW. I am in full support of less pollution being pumped into the atmosphere. It is sad that the residents of China rarely ever see a blue sky because of the particulate pollution blocking out the sunlight.
Whilst many may deride the man it is worthwhile listening to Professor Bob Carter’s arguments about AGW.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLkze-9GcI
Listen to the lectures and it may inspire some to delve further into the theory and better inform themselves better about the issues.
Funny story on the ABC news tonight that Brough tried to write himself in as Big Chief Pineapple. The Nats were aghast and wouldn’t allow it.
It does not matter, in Australian economic terms, how much stuff China pumps into the atmosphere.
What is needed is to enable our economy to move to an era past fossil fuels. Because one thing is certain – they will run out, it may take 10 or 400 years but so what, the facts remain the same.
If we fail to do this, either by lack of will by the Govt. or by pressure from lobby groups we will be condemned by future generations.
It matters immensely what China pumps into the atmosphere. Eventually Chinese citizens will be impowered to stop this pollution and may no longer want Australian coal. I find the tokenism with a ETS so evident when Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of coal. The weening of the Australian economy off income generating fossil fuels will not happen in my life time.
Grog @ 390 -
Bizarre that Turnbull and Nelson are running the line that last year they were told they couldn’t do anything until 2012
Not bizarre at all Grog. They’re Liberals. It takes them that ages just to tie their shoe laces. They were in government federally for nearly 13 years and what did they do? Bought in a GST, tortured some refugees at great expense, and wasted bucket loads of our money, oh, and started an illegal war. That is pretty much the sum total of their achievement.
There are no proven models available that can accurately forecast weather 1 year or 10 years ahead. I am gobsmacked that the media and many here have sucked in what I would describe as dodgy assumptions.
And I am still gobsmacked by those who persistently and wilfully make fools of themselves by failing to acknowledge the important difference between day to day weather, and long term climate. If you toss a (fair) coin, you cannot reliably predict what the outcome of each toss will be, but you can very reliably predict the general outcome of 10 000 tosses. Does the failure to be able to reliably predict the next toss invalidate the statistical prediction of the outcome of a large number of tosses? Of course not.
You do not know what the maximum temp will be on any given day in mid summer, but you can reliably bet they will be substantially higher than mid winter. You cannot reliably predict which individual will get lung cancer, but you can reliably predict that many, many more smokers will than non-smokers.
Learn some basic stats.
What is even more annoying is the assumptions made about possible temp rises based on increases in CO2. So far we have seen temps rise by 0.1C every 10 years. There has been no evidence of accelerated temps if the el nino of 1998 is stripped out of the data.
What is your point? With the 1998 El Nino (a statistical outlier) in or out of the data, the long term temp trend is still rising.
There has been decreases in artic ice and increases in Antartic ice.
Wrong about the Antarctic.
“The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced some of the fastest warming on Earth, nearly 3°C over the last half-century. Eighty-seven percent of its glaciers have been retreating during this period and now we see these glaciers are also speeding up.”
Source: http://tinyurl.com/5ld4nw
GRACE [satellite] observations have found that between April 2002 and August 2005 the Antarctic ice sheet shrank by 150 cubic kilometres annually. (Science, DOI: 10.1126/science.1123785).
Increases in ice cover are a localised phenomenon. The East Antarctic is gaining ice, due to increased precipitation, but the West is losing more of it. Overall the Antartic is losing ice. It is true that it is losing ice proportionally slower than the Arctic, but that is because the Antarctic is far more isolated than the Arctic from climatic effects from the rest of the globe.
The data in particular is being massaged to suit certain points of view and it is disapointing that concensus science is being promoted when the data does not support this view.
So your right, and the vast majority of the world’s professional climate scientists are wrong. Hell of a claim, dude. No, the chances are overwhelming that you’re completely and utterly wrong.
And if Bob Carter is the best source of climate scepticism you got, then frankly you haven’t got much.
zedder, if you are right then we may all end up being a little poorer, though there is a very good chance that we’ll all come out ahead.
OTOH, if you are wrong and we’ve done nothing because we believed you then we’ll all be dead.
I’d rather risk some of my grandkids’ inheritance than their lives!
Oh dear “Just Me”, you play the man, not the facts. Stick with the argument rather than besmirching a person’s motivations. This is science, not politics.
The trouble with all arguments is the data sets. They are massaged to prove a point. Scales are distorted, the data is not like for like.
You provide a interesting point about glacier destruction. Yet I can provide evidence about increased sea ice formation.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/
When I hear you say “So your right, and the vast majority of the world’s professional climate scientists are wrong. Hell of a claim, dude. No, the chances are overwhelming that you’re completely and utterly wrong.” I am reminded of Colin Powell talking about the naysayers who didn’t believe that Iraq had weapon’s of mass destruction. I don’t mind being a sceptic. Sometimes I can be right.
The latest sat sensing data BTW is showing a diversion from the mean less than 0.5C either way depending on the satellite. As always what is the mean? Averages from the last 10 years, 100 years or 1000 years. Most are using temp data for the relevent sat history since launch.
Err..you’re going to have to interpret that data for us, zedder. The site appears to be saying that sea ice is on the decline. (Remember it’s trends which matter, not fluctuations – we’re all experts at reading trend lines here).
Scepticism is fine – it’s good. But it’s not being sceptical to quibble around the edges of the science and ignore the basic thrust. That’s simply being foolish.
Anyone can sift through all the data and arguments, come up with one or two points which look like anomalies and jump up and down about them. (to paraphrase ‘The diary of Brendan Nelson’ – “I’m going to ignore the facts and concentrate on the bits I don’t understand”).
There are people out there, zedder, who are still ’sceptics’ about evolution, and probably are just as proud about being so as you are about climate change. It doesn’t mean they’re right, either.
399
zedder Says:
Oh dear “Just Me”, you play the man, not the facts. Stick with the argument rather than besmirching a person’s motivations. This is science, not politics.
Pathetic.
Zoom – we were talking about Antartic sea ice, there is a upward trend. Artic sea ice OTOH is showing a decline. Seemed obvious to most people.
“Just Me” does not deserve any response with the last post.
Plenty of data at a glance for those who want to drill into the data here.
http://tinyurl.com/55b6qd
zedder
In this modern age it really isn’t hard to use the internet, find data, think and work out for yourself that the denialist are full of it.
Some links:
First off you need to understand the difference between temperature and heat, you need to understand that to realize that when a large body of ice starts melting heat is sucked out of the system stopping the temperature rise if the heat input is constant, but once the ice melt it will rise again.
Second a little research into
short term and long term trends, the denialist seem to get all worked up over what would be seen as a single poll result on this site. It’s knowledge that helps you out in many ways, the link is to an article dealing with stock trading.
Now here is the temperature change, antarctic (nasa image) end. The winds are circulating faster and it’s colder in the center, but the ice is melting at a respectable rate because the ice is melting on the edges ( where there is a temperature rise). Now you might be in the set that believe nasa didn’t put people on the moon, and the melting ice caps aren’t melting, in which case, don’t worry about the link.
But that is not where the action is, Greenland has enough ice on it to raise the sea level about 5 meters and it’s ice is slipping into the sea.
I don’t know why the denialists bother. It’s all happening, and the happening is accelerating, as it progresses they are just going to look sillier and sillier. Nature isn’t going to stop because of bullshit typed into denialist web pages.
The temperature stability over the last 9000 years has been the exception not the rule, it’s over.
Of cause you may believe the earth is flat and held up by elephants or that we came from the heavens 5000 years ago and god controls the outcome, or some other pre science myth, in which case your not going to believe science is our best chance of describing what is happening and that science is be best hope of creating rational public policy.
Zedder
Sea ice doesn’t alter water levels one way or the other, its the ice on the land slipping into the sea that matters.
Take an ice cube put it in a glass of water, mark the level, let the ice melt and see if the level has changed.
As there seems to be a bit of confusion on this issue here is a link
http://www.teachersdomain.org/resources/ipy07/sci/ess/watcyc/icesimulate/index.html
I’m not much interested in hosting another of these brawls about climate science. Can we move on please, or at least direct the discussion back to domestic political matters.
Sorry William, but I think you have a problem, domestic politics is going to be about climate change. Right up to and including the next federal election.
Charles, it’s late. I just logged in. I agree with William in not getting too bogged down with science.
But surely it can’t be right that if you add an ice cube to a glass of water the water level does not rise when the ice cube melts?
x + y cannot equal x regardless of the quantity of x and y.
But surely it can’t be right that if you add an ice cube to a glass of water the water level does not rise when the ice cube melts?
x + y cannot equal x regardless of the quantity of x and y.
Well, here’s your chance to do some easy but real basic science, and test your hypothesis.
1. Take one glass of room temperature water and some ice cubes.
2. Put ice cubes in glass of water and mark on the side of glass the level where the water comes up to.
3. Wait till ice cubes melt, then see if water level has moved.
4. Figure out why it didn’t.
George Megalogenis looks at the political impications .
“MEASURED in dollars and common sense, the task of implementing an emissions trading scheme as part of Australia’s effort in addressing climate change is no different to the GST.
It begins with a circular transaction of revenue coming in and tax cuts going out. Canberra collects billions in revenue from the carbon permits it auctions to businesses; businesses pass on the cost of those permits to consumers; but before consumers turn into government-dumping voters, the revenue Canberra collects is given back as tax cuts or other compensation. In other words, a short-term bribe to secure a long-term change in the way the economy operates.
The obvious job for Kevin Rudd and his merry band of ministers is to make voters feel they are doing their bit to save the planet, while also leaving their wallets fat enough to help pay for the transition costs and keep a lid on inflationary expectations. The GST did all of the above when it mattered most for the Coalition between 1998 and 2001. ”
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_gst_shows_the_way/
Joshua Gans has written a piece for The Age on Innovation Policy. It looks like Universities and New low emissions Technology businesses will be the big winners. He claims that Universities are going to have to change what courses they are offering to cater for the new economic and scientific era that is about to be ushered in.
“If, as Garnaut projects, the world fund for research in low-emissions technologies needs to be about $100 billion a year, then, proportionate to its GDP share, Australia’s contribution would have to be about 3% of this. Over all research, our share is now less than half that.
What Garnaut is doing is saying emissions caps are only part of our international commitment. We need to commit to spending on the other public good – knowledge – in the same way. And, fortunately, the revenue from emissions permits will more than cover such a commitment. This is a critical change in philosophy on innovation policy. I endorse it wholeheartedly.”
http://economics.com.au/?p=1618
1. Glass of water
2. Add block of ice to glass => Water level rises from step 1
3. Ice melts => Water level stays the same as at step 2
Part 2 is the bit we need to worry about… when land-borne ice such as in Greenland melts INTO the sea, it will raise water levels no matter what we do.
The other interesting thing is that there was a huge drop off in Students at school studying Sceince and Maths during the Howard era and this will have to be reversed now very quickly.
Yes Steve
I believe this is one of the nuggets of policy shit Possum talked about: boosting elite private schools probably meant more went into business/law then science & engineering.
Charles I misinterpreted what you said at 404, you are right. Maginificently articulated Dario.
I am predicting that Rudd is going to wedge Brenda, Straightbull, Hockey, Cossie and Julie so far on petrol and climate change that they are going to be hangin’ from the ceiling of parliament house by their undies.
Pain for the liberals, especially Hockey ouch LOL.
414 Centre, John Quiggin fires a nice old warning shot to the Opposition too.
“Whether or not the government ultimately follows Garnaut’s proposed model, there’s no doubt that the Review has shifted the terms of debate substantially. Those (like the Federal Opposition) who are tempted to play the issue for short-term political gain will pay a big price in the end if they succumb to that temptation.”
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/07/04/garnaut-draft-report-released/
413 “I believe this is one of the nuggets of policy shit Possum talked about: boosting elite private schools probably meant more went into business/law then science & engineering.”
Jovial Monk, dare we say that we can now see the need for an ‘Education Revolution’?
Centre at 414. Like all things political, it depends how the MSM plays it. Don’t depend on them to necessarily support efforts to combat the effect of climate change.
Absolutely, I could not give a shit how much it costs to get those computers into public/low fee private schools. You are shit w/o computer skills these days.
Hope to see lots more money on education
“Costello, man of the future”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23968715-7583,00.html
What planet is Pearson living on?
“What the Coalition most needs is a consummate parliamentary performer to highlight Rudd’s weakness in that forum and to cut his economic ministers down to size. ”
He believes that Tip is that person – poor deranged fool.
Great quote from the LP comments thread.
To obtain government the Coalition must have a credible alternative CC policy, and notwithstanding the leadership and team required to enact if elected, such a low-notch policy would be flying in the face of where the action is at. At that point in the future, such action will be much more than mere meetings and public awareness – there will be examples in place where sectors of the community have already made sacrifices and taken the steps towards their own positive contribution and these would form a formidable voice against a populist, opportunist policy.
They’re buggered. The Coalition has nowhere to go on this. How can they possibly catapult ahead of the Labor Party, with limited media, carrying weight, on an issue requiring leadership and team. (And that weight is not only CC heavy, but includes the focus on ‘the individual’ bleeding through its veins).
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/07/04/open-garnaut-report-thread/#comment-483977
ruawake at 419. After reading that article by Christopher Pearson, there is absolutely no doubt (if there ever was one) that he is nothing but a coalition hack. What else can you expect from a former speech writer for the rodent?
It looks like Malcolm may be in court during the next election.
“THE Liberal Party frontbencher Malcolm Turnbull could be contesting the next federal election at the same time as contesting a damages suit relating to the nation’s largest corporate collapse, HIH Insurance.
The Supreme Court heard yesterday that a longstanding claim by the HIH liquidator, a McGrath Nicol partner Tony McGrath, is likely to come to trial in February 2010.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/turnbull-faces-poll-during-court-case/2008/07/03/1214950951548.html
Maybe Tony Abbott is in with a chance after all.
Just Me @ 380 -
I’ve still only begun working my way through the Garnaut report, but it seems I misunderstood what Garnaut was saying about Kakadu. Instead of it drying out the problem is going to be it will have too much water as it becomes inundated by the ocean.
But that presents another problem because Google Earth data indicates much of the northern fridge of the continent is at a/below similar levels, including all of Darwin.
.
Centre @ 414 –
I am predicting that Rudd is going to wedge Brenda, Straightbull, Hockey, Cossie and Julie so far on petrol and climate change that they are going to be hangin’ from the ceiling of parliament house by their undies.
Populism is okay when there is nothing much at stake, but in times of crisis people turn to strong leaders and the one thing the Opposition has demonstrated daily since the election is that not one of their front bench has any ticker. If people do accept that we are in deep poop on CC then the current lot are toast.
Greens to contest Mayo by-election
“The Greens have announced they will field a candidate for the federal by-election in the Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo later this year.
Lynton Vonow says he can improve on his performance against Alexander Downer last year, when he attracted nearly 10,000 votes.”
Sometimes there’s some credible reporting – Headline “Cut the spin”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23970173-7583,00.html
cille
I detect that the media is slowly catching on, the Government can do more than one thing at a time.
But it seems it is the Govt’s. fault for not letting us know. Oh thats right the media does not inform – it just spins and comments.
If it was a Labor Opposition the media would be screaming at them to release their alternative policies by now. It is only the biggest restructure of the economy ever undertaken. But I suppose there is no need for this opposition to have a substantive policy on Climate Change because they don’t believe it exists.
Maybe their game is to challenge the Queensland Opposition for it’s unchallenged title of the ‘best resourced and laziest opposition ever’.
Short term the govt will cop some heat. Long term the Opposition will become irrelevant.
“Costello, man of the future”??? (C Pearson)
Says it all, really. The future never comes…
And, by implication, he sure weren’t no man of the present or the past.
Christopher Pearson is particularly venomous in his comments.
He wrote, “a great many state teachers and their appalling unions have preyed like parasites on the long-suffering proletariat” (“Our forsaken schools”, 3-4/3/2007).
He also wrote that parents believe state schools are “run primarily for the benefit of otherwise unemployable teachers” (“Howard’s cultural agenda”, 22-23/5/2004), a turn of phrase that so overjoyed him that he repeated its essence in another of his diatribes (“An education in reform”, 16-17/10/2004).
He also wrote, “The French have a phrase to cover betrayals of this order. They call it le trahison des clercs, the treason of the clerical classes. Implicit in it is the notion of conscious delinquency, of knowing better and still behaving irresponsibly. That is the charge that the subliterate young, here as well as in America, are entitled to level at many of their teachers, lecturers and the vast armies of education bureaucrats.” (“The betrayal of education”14/1/2006)
Mr Pearson will have as much success as Piers Ackerman in stopping Labor. I still expect Kevin Rudd to win the next election – with an increased majority. He just has to get back to the grand narrative and abandon the daily news cycle.
Dario why would the Government cop short term heat over something they promised before the election and that people have been waiting for them to get on with?
ruawake – I’ve got a feeling that Lenore is positioning herself for the onslaught/positioning over the garnaut report – journos are just as political in their own territory as the one’s elected in Canberra. The media I don’t trust.
Because the media are making sure of it. They won’t be able to keep it up though.
I think the media and the opposition are not too sure what to make of ETS. The Govt has a process, started in opposition.
Garnaut, then the green paper, then the final Garnaut, then the white paper all the time keeping control of the issue.
Poor Brenda will be fighting shadows.
Newspoll certainly doesn’t show it as unpopular and with younger people ETS introduction is supported by about 73%.
On the other hand polls can’t test the opposition policy because there is none.
You know, if Rudd can just stop the constant spin or reduce the over abundance of substance or if he can just work out how to get a message across, he could become a popular leader. Oh wait, he is.
If Rudd is supposedly following the 24 hr news cycle how come it is Nelson & his mate Turnball who are getting their story in the News first without the Gov’t’s balancing comment? And saying the most outrageous and character assassination things? It is the Opposition that seems to me to be obsessed with the short term news cycle. They do not seem to have anything substantial to say about anything of importance.
This Gov’t have a lot of big things going on at once. It is the media that cannot keep up – perhaps the intellectually challenged reporters can only do one thing at a time. There is plenty of “narrative” if they will only look without their Howardesque glasses.
Is the Gov’t partly to blame for the distorted messages or is it soley the media?
The a-holes at Bolt’s blog who wished Whitlam ill will spew over this.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/gough-whitlam-released-from-hospital/2008/07/05/1214951102520.html
William, with all due respect, I think Charles is on the money. Domestic politics is now about climate change and how we deal with it, as well as shifting global power, and how we deal with it. And not to put too fine a point on it, we’re buggered if we don’t.
I think domestic political discourse has just undergone a seismic shift.
All right, let’s have a big long argument about ice core samples then.
HSO I think William was more concerned with the quality of the debate than the topic. Even Peter Martin’s blog got some juvenile comments which is unusual.
Doug,
The government is partly responsible because it sets the hares flying; e.g., the Asia-Pacific Union. Kevin Rudd would do better to focus on a few key issues and use his position to build the support he needs for the detailed changes he intends to make. He has the support in principle, but he has to take a large majority with him on implementation.
Let’s learn from Victoria. Before the 1999 election, no matter what the question, Steve Bracks seemed to answer with more police, more nurses and more teachers. Once in office, that is what he delivered. The Victorian Government spent $1.4 billion in capital expenditure on schools in its first two terms. In this term, it is scheduled to spend $1.9 billion. In its next term it will spend, I estimate, $1.6 billion to complete its program to rebuild every school in the state. But you don’t see John Brumby on the TV every day talking about this and the thousand other things his government is doing. However, the voters see the new and rebuilt schools when they drop their children off or go to parent-teacher nights. The facts are on the ground and they work to Labor’s advantage.
Kevin Rudd has a similar task. He has taken on climate change, tax reform, reform of the federation and an education revolution (which still has a few parts missing). That is the most ambitious agenda of any government I have experienced. He intends to set Australia up for a long-term, prosperous, just and sustainable future. Yet he gets bogged down in the idiocies of Belinda Neal, while the government was paralysed for three (?) days on the carer’s bonus before the budget.
These thoughts are a little rambling. But I think you will get my point: the government needs to focus on a few big picture items and not be diverted. It certainly should not be throwing extra issues into the mix.
Just a few comments on the Trading Scheme debate.
The economic trigger of the trading system has been dealt with in many ways by the increasing cost of energy,
One of the things that seems to have been lost here is what are we trying to do , we are trying to lessen the amount of carbon that we are putting into the AIR. We are not trying to give the shallow libs a great electoral advantage. If the issue is going to be dealt with properly then we need a bypartisan approach. If Rudd said that he is only going to legislate if the Libs supported it in a bi partisan way it would put a lot more pressure back on the Libs, if they didn’t support it then he can just point at them and say, its there fault, (A little bit of reality here, is the Vic senator for family first going to horse trade petrol when its been his biggest issue, no I don’t think so.)
Back to the politics of the issue, where did the ortodoxy of the trading scheme come from, some free market imbeciles who are now laughing like hyenas. We don’t have a tax for the defence department, we don’t link tabacco tax to hospitals, its a great mistake to make this important issue a easy target for the lobbyists of the big polluters, they have sucked in the conservation movement into thinking that the carbon trading is the answer, if only it was that easy.
Break the link, spend some of the infrastructure future fund on alternative energy and research and development (a real investment $5b PA) and put the libs in the cross hairs of the decision making process, the conservative media will run and run on the scare campaign until they have done as much damage as possible.
One last thing, there is no rule book that says that the Libs should be ‘fair or true’ and before we get cranky with the the “I don’t want 5 cents more on my petrol” battlers, they are telling us now how they are going to react, if Rudd and the ALP walk into this one they are not going to last as long as they should.
Whats the look for MAYO?
Cheers.
William. I’m not suggesting a tedious exploration of the science of climate change, with or without ice cores, There are other places where people can do that. What I’m suggesting is that having to deal with both climate change and a shift in global politics, has now become the stuff of domestic politics.
As others have noted, Kevin Rudd has taken on probably the most ambitious mix of policy formulation, any of us have ever seen or know about from history. It’s global in reach, it’s also domestic as it will be played out. He may well choke on it.
Personally, I hope he doesn’t, as the Opposition haven’t a clue what is confronting us both at the domestic as well as international level, and clearly are going to play populist politics, at every turn.
steve, I’m fairly sure William can speak for himself.
Follow the Preferences, the biggest problem with the bipartisan theory is that Nelson has already decided that the Liberals will be unlikely to support the proposals.
http://news.smh.com.au/national/libs-unlikely-to-back-emissions-scheme-20080629-2ymk.html
I have no problem with discussion of climate change issues if they relate to Australian politics. The argument between 382 to 404 did not do so.
I reckon Rudd will be able to get the voters who matter on side with this. The majority of people understand that we must act on climate change and of course low to middle income earners will be compensated.
How ironic!
- Labor to introduce an ETS with compensations to middle to low income earners, whereas the conservatives introduced a GST with the majority of tax cuts to the rich.
- Liberal wedged Labor with Tampa, and now Labor to get their wedge revenge with CC.
As they say, “what goes around, comes around”.
Damn we just can’t beat Collingwood.
By the way, The PM is on Insiders tomorrow morning. They should get Bolt to interview him?
#440 fuck you make me laugh sometimes, sitting at your desk, going through the comments and then, bang – whaaaaa
I’m one step away from doing a Bryan Palmer at the moment.
Don’t worry William I’m over it ( arguing climate change science that is). I was curious as to how robust the climate denialists arguments were, found a site where you can argue with a whole church of them at one time. If they could mount a convincing argument it could derail Rudds agenda, nature will only provide two mores summers of evidence before the election.
In my view Rudds safe, it’s like arguing with creationists, might work in the US, but generally science wins in Australia. What I can’t work out is why they bother, oh well.
Breaking news: Rudd is appearing on INSIDERS tomorrow morning, for the first time in quite a while! I wonder what sort of treatment he’ll get from Cassidy & co?
423
MayoFeral Says:
I’ve still only begun working my way through the Garnaut report, but it seems I misunderstood what Garnaut was saying about Kakadu. Instead of it drying out the problem is going to be it will have too much water as it becomes inundated by the ocean.
But that presents another problem because Google Earth data indicates much of the northern fridge of the continent is at a/below similar levels, including all of Darwin.
Depends entirely on how much sea rise we get. Some of Darwin is certainly at risk from rises less than a metre, but most of it is many metres above current sea levels.
This site gives a good idea of what various levels of sea level rise will do to any part of the world.
http://flood.firetree.net/
The main climate change danger to Darwin and the whole northern third of Australia’s coast probably comes from more frequent and intense storms and cyclones.
And William, apologies for my part in last night’s dust-up. Won’t happen again.
Chris 442
I agree with what you say to a point.
The Carer’s thing was certainly not handled well, and probably it could be put down to the Gov’t still coming to grips with what it means to be in Gov’t as opposed to Opposition in regards to how it deals with the media. I do not knopw that Rudd spent much time on the Neal issue but the media(especially the DT) went ballistic. Maybe it is partly because the Media are hungry for News and they are not getting much feed from the Gov’t, and hence they make up their own or at least make mountains out of molehills to sell papers. This is the opposite of Rudd supposedly been obsessed with the short term news cycle. He is not feeding them enough!
I would say Fuelwatch was not one of those. I feel sure Rudd made sure that it would play up well so as to educate the public on the fact the prices are Global and local gov’t’s cannot really control it. He did succeed in that and that will pay its dividends as time goes on. The short term collateral negatives would have been far less if that Leak had not occurred and given the papers an excuse for drama.
I thought the Asia Pacific was OK as it could be an important concept in our region. Rudd could not work out the details as it could be taken amiss diplomatically and really the right thing was to float the idea and see what the responses would be. Again that did work well as the PM’s in the other countries reacted positively. But the press at home were not as receptive.
I think maybe the reality of this matter is in the way Rudd thinks. I believe essentially he has a big picture mentality which can very well microscope down to the details but still keep them in context of other details and the bigger issues. To him all the policies he is implementing are inter-related & intertwined and form together the whole picture. To him he is really painting that “whole picture” and is now in the process of painting in the essential basic structure of interwoven policies. As time goes on he will paint in the details as they are developed And so you will get a complete and well developed picture in the next couple of years. It is complex and that is because Gov’t is taking on an ambitious agenda. I do not believe his thinking is linear in the way that the press’ and a lot of the public’s are.
Now Rudd is doing what comes naturally to him and to him it all hangs together. But the press and many of the public do not see a “narrative” in all this and it seems to them to be ad hoc. Certainly the Opposition do not simply have a clue!
And to come back to your major point – “Kevin Rudd would do better to focus on a few key issues and use his position to build the support he needs for the detailed changes he intends to make” . He must take account of how the majority of people think and communicate in a way which they can appreciate. Some of the minor issues do not need to be mentioned and the Gov’t needs to be able to slap down the irritating and diverting things like the Carer’s Allowance so they can get back to communicating the major issues and building public support. Not that real work behind the scenes stops when the Press go ballistic on some worthless issue, but the PR becomes paralysed. The Gov’t could also be more judicious in feeding the Press so that any News is on major things, and not allow the Press’ imagination and ignorance to fill in the gaps.
The gall of Bredan Nelson knows no bounds. He now claims the government has lost credibility on climate change because it has been in 7 months and has done nothing. This from a bloke who was in office for nearly 12 years and did bugger all.
Doug,
I think that is a reasonable analysis. The Belinda Neal thing isn’t Kevin Rudd’s fault. If I were he, I’d be furious that one of the government’s backbenchers had allowed such a saga to be created from a request to move tables.
Gary, I think Nelson is going to outwedge himself, so to speak! It wouldn’t surprise me if a few Liberals break ranks, surely they aren’t all climate change sceptics and short term opportunists?
Gary that can’t be right. Brenda was saying on tonights news that Rudd is moving too quickly on climate change and therefore might get it wrong.
She would have to be the worst opposition leader of all time!
Please hang tough William! It was just a side discussion that as you saw didn’t last very long. Like it or not, Climate Change IS part of the political discussion in Australia, and just like when the GST came in and discussion turned to ‘how will a birthday cake be taxed’, with CC there will be analysis of what it actually means at a low level and what is happening to the planet.
I am quite over the climate change thing – #450 was a reaction to Cille and certain whingers on the US threads.
William please don’t even think it. I know that the journos read this blog, and we love giving it to ‘em.
Nobody takes the US threads seriously – they are a cross between World Championship Wrestling and Days Of Our Lives.
Perhaps Rudd doesn’t see the Asia Pacific Community/Union/whatever as as isolated concept but part of dealing with climate change, too.
Other than Africa the biggest affects of CC will occur in the Asia-Pacific (A-P) region, both in terms of the magnitude of the effect and the numbers of people affected. The more closely linked we are the greater the chance of co-operation rather than conflict. You only need to look at the EU. How would Europeans have dealt with climate change pre the EU, and especially before 1939? Unfortunately, the current A-P political fault lines are more like Europe of that period than the present day.
I do hope you don’t do a Bryan Palmer, William. I don’t think it’s got quite as bad as the last days at Bryan’s, though I’ve given up on the U.S. threads, I’ve got to say. Also, I don’t know how, up with it you put, at times.
I was struck today with the somewhat changed tone in the dead tree version of the O.O.. Apart from a very silly paeon to Eddixender, and George M. being quite sensible as usual, the rest of them seemed to be acknowledging the gov’t had taken on a huge task of real reform and that it is enormously complex and fraught. Then on T.V., the image of Rudd visiting the lower reaches of the Murray and engaging with folk there about the import of the river in crisis, was, I thought, a nifty weaving together of the domestic/global message.
the poisoned dwarf being his usual sweet lovable self!, how predictable can one person be?
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23974940-5006301,00.html
Judy, I think the dwarf might have been auditioning…..
http://mycareer.com.au/jobs/canberra-act/defence-essential-services/federal-government/6352621+dept+finance+nelson.aspx
Even for the Poisoned One this is bloody ridiculous. I mean, this is really stupid. REALLY stupid.
What possible point could an article like this have, if not to be just offensive and inflammatory?
There’s no story. There’s no writing. There’s no political analysis. No balance, or even the attempt of it. Just, “We asked a dumb, pointless, idiotic question that has no answer, therefore proving Rudd has no empathy with the ordinary taxpayer.”
What will The Dwarf asking Rudd next? Is he going to ride a bicycle to work? Will he grow his own vegetables? Mow his own lawns? Darn his own socks?.. to demonstrate the “common touch” of course. We’ll be reminded Chifley used to walk to work…. in 1949… and that Rudd is “the millionaire Prime Minister” by contrast.
This is worse than tabloid. Milne has truly descended into the infantile. Gurgling in his humidicrib, Milne’s last few brain cells have gone and there is nothing left but reptilian knee jerk. Total tosser.
dunno that Nelson will last out the three months probationary period, i think this job will probably be a short term project.
Meanwhile, Pies manages to liken Garnaut with belinda Neal, in a positively astonishing article, full of the usual malignant wind and bluster.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23973868-5001031,00.html
good god! i never have read the cane toad, in fact i wouldnt have opened the dwarf’s article if i’d known who wrote it {it wasnt on the banner} they cant dare to be different –they just come out with the same old, same old, my blood pressure is sooo much better now i bypass them.
Piers hasn’t even got his facts right as usual(don’t let the facrs spoil a good story?). I was watching some of Garnaut on Friday and his answer to a reporter’s question was that Australia could not be the leader as others had already done that.
Anyway the question was poor – who cares who leads the world on this as long as the issue is addressed. I mean it is not the same as baracking for your local football team, nor should it be subject to petty politics. GW is just far too important an issue for that.
So? What else do you expect from Milne – skill, talent, ability? Not in this lifetime.
Tom.
Paul Bongiorno’s first two questions to Penny Wong on MTP were about Milne’s crud.
Wonder if Nelson’s son got hammered on alcopops?
It will be swept under the carpet by the MSM anyway
Thank god they got a reasonable panel on Insiders this week… Crabbe, George M and Henderson
Oakes has a good story on Rudd not listening and acting on advice from experts.
“THANK God the government ignored the economic experts! That should be the cry of families battling against soaring petrol prices and other cost of living increases.”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23972331-5007146,00.html
Milne and Piers are partisans, their writing always reflects that.
Hahahahaha, the panel just ripped into Milne
One of the better episodes of Insiders I have seen in a while. Some decent comment, balanced praise and bagging of the government and opposition, and no loony moronic statements (i.e. no Milne, Bolt or Akerman on the panel). I’m sure it won’t last of course…
Glad to see Milne’s article was interpreted by Cassidy in the way it should have been. A completely schoolboy-level, idea-free spray that told us nothing, made no point and contributed zero to any relevant debate.
Sad to see Paul Bongiorno taking up the issue. I didn’t see it, but I hope it was tongue in cheek. Nevertheless, to give this kind of cheap blather any credibility at all is a mistake in my mind.
Rudd on Insiders… I got the feeling that the Riot Act may have been read to Cassidy over this. Make it serious and I’ll go on. No Pies, no Bolt, and definitely no Milne to smirk their way through the post-mortem. If you behave, you might get me on again.
Dario: I agree with you, the only jarring note for me was Chris Ullmann, surely the ABC could have found a better chief political correspondent than that bloke?
Cassidy gave Rudd a fair interview, I’ll concede that LOL
You wonder why the Poisoned Dwarf is held in such high esteem! He’s little more than a barracker for the Liberal Party, and we know his wife works for Crosby Textor. And Glen Milne, we’ll never forget the sight of you pissed off your face at the Walkleys, assaulting Stephen Maine.
Milne clearly has something over either Murdoch, or one of the senior editors.
If any one of the rest of us produced that kind of rubbish in whatever job we do, we’d be given a warning & then sacked for a repeat offence.
461 Centre I understand exactly what you mean.
Just a thought… interesting that Rudd was grilled on the coming ETS: question after question.
But the quotable quote from this morning’s interview was about some 6 year old kid posing naked for a photo.
This isn’t a comment on the triviality of the Media. You’d expect them to be interested in a good child pornography beat-up. But this is because there was little else said in the interview.
It does sort of add weight to the complaint of journalists, commentators (and a lot of bloggers, me included) that Rudd so far is reticent to set out the basic concept of an ETS; and somewhat justifies Cassidy’s basic complaint that Rudd didn’t answer his question, which was a pretty simple one: “Could you outline for us how an ETS will work?”.
One detects a reluctance for Rudd to bite the bullet and tell us that in the sort term there is going to be a period of adjustment where not all the outcomes will be good for everybody: business or private individuals. I’ve seen this in other areas too – carers’ bonuses, pension increases, Fuel Watch… a reluctance to step up and be frank with the public.
I’m beginning to suspect that Rudd rather fancies that big lead he has over Nelson and will do almost anything – or more accurately, often does nothing – to jeopardize it.
Ultimately, when the bad news has to be delivered, there are going to be a lot of “I told you so’s” floating around. Yes, from the likes of Pies and Milne and Shanahan, but also from serious commentators with no particular axe to grind except getting to the bottom of Rudd’s policy wonk jargonese and informing the public inthe process.
I can understand that Rudd doesn’t want to go off half-cocked and cruel the ground for more considered information and judgement once Garnaut is digested. But I also think that there is, on his part, a kind of vain pride in him that likes being “Mr. 65%”. The only thins is that if he fritters his big lead away in dodging the big issues, always deferring them to a later date, or a committee report to come, when the time comes to spend some of his political capital, there may not be sufficient left to spend in order to do the job right. You can plan and plan and plan, frittering away your money on consultants, modelling, architects, committees and so on, but you always have to have enough in reserve to actually begin building, or even the begin demolition before you re-build.
I’m not saying it’s sure to happen, but I do worry that Rudd’s spin doctoring could get in the way of the Big Message. He needs to be more forthright,to include the people in the debate, not keep putting of making a decision until the community is split into thousands of factions all warring with each other, and none of them agreeing with the government’s approach… for the simple reason that they don’t have a clue what the government’s approach really is and therefore they have to keep guessing (or should I say, speculating in a mood of environmental and economic panic).
I watched that interview this morning and got precisely zero out of it except that Rudd doesn’t like pictures of naked 6 year olds. He evaded qwuite reasonable questions, smothering them in blather and public service-speak. In many ways, he’s his own worst enemy in this area.
Well I am a bit bemused by the comments being made about the US`thread having just done a quick check in here. While they may be justified criticisms
the sound of shattering glass is echoing loudly.
BB – what I took out of it this a.m. was that whatever he says will be blown up and, maybe, the wrong way. We all know there is going to be some form of pain and he has promised compensation in some way but isn’t it better to wait another 10 days or so until the Green Paper comes out so that we can actually have it in black and white.
Wouldn’t it be improper for him to steal Penny Wong’s thunder while they are still preparing it.
I am not adverse to him enjoying his moment in the sun – he worked darn hard to oust the other mob. I would like him to have a decent speech writer tho – he should give away writing his own stuff.
My kids in PS say they have not worked harder and are really enjoying it. I will give him his moment. Always enjoy your comments.
Another great analysis by the Possum. And with these conclusions, it actually gives me hope that Climate Change might have a lot more bi partisanship than we would normally expect or hope.
I just hope the mathematics of demography will produce the right result.
“Looking back over all of the charts, the voters the Coalition are losing aren’t being replaced by younger voters, to the point where it’s reducing the total Coalition primary vote. If the trends that have been happening for the last 21 years continue for the next decade, by 2018 thereabouts, the ALP will simply become unbeatable with TPP results coming in with a an expected demographic floor of around 55%
So the Coalition has to start appealing to much younger demographics or they will likely find themselves in permanent opposition.
Something for them to keep in mind if they start trying to play political games with the emissions trading system and climate change – issues with large support in the younger demographics.”
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/07/06/the-coalitions%e2%80%99-demographic-train-wreck/#comments
I did not see Insiders this morning although I was going to because the PM was on. But to follow up what Sue H said I can remember Q&A about a month ago. In response to a question from the crowd about petrol prices he said that the Gov’t had done all they could. Then Tony Jones said Oh you mean in relation to the budget. And Rudd said yes, and then went to great trouble to explain that it was Global forces that dictated the cost of fuel. I distinctly remember him saying that it does not mean that you throw up your hands (and give in) but the Gov’t would continue to work on the margins to keep the price as low as possible.
Guess what the media(& of course Opposition said)- that Rudd had done all he could and where was the promise of keeping fuel prices low made at the election? Of course there was no such promise.
My point is that he gets misrepresented. I did not think he could have been clearer that night but yet the media for reasons best known to itself misrepresented him. I can understand him being cautious.
It would be best to wait for the Green Paper that Penny Wong was presenting to get the full story together and where it is harder to take something out of context just for an eye catching headline.
BB – a bit harsh. I think the following reports will be the basis on which such “educating of the masses” will take place. There is not that much longer to wait. All will be revealed.
Has anyone heard from Greg Hunt since June 28th? I can find no mention of him since then in any media.
Is he in a cupboard, locked in Brenda’s office, has Malcolm kidnapped him?
Why is the Shadow Environment Minister missing in action?
Gone off with his bother “Mike”
Wherever Hunt is ruawake, Mesmerelda has taken his place as chief attack dog on seven news.
My history master, at the English public (private) boys school I spent too many unhappy years, was really called Mike Hunt.
But I think that “Mike” should really be in the spotlight, given Garnaut, COAG, the lower lakes, the CSIRO report on climate change and agriculture.
Maybe it is Brenda that is micro-managing the media?
489
Gary Bruce Says:
BB – a bit harsh. I think the following reports will be the basis on which such “educating of the masses” will take place. There is not that much longer to wait. All will be revealed.
Agree. It has all been preliminary, preparatory groundwork so far from the government, as it should be for the most important and far reaching public policy introduced in decades. The main game is about to start. The real question is what is the opposition (with their shitty track record) going to do? My bet is they will indulge in some outraged grandstanding nitpicking around the edges, but will still largely buckle and go along with it, because for both scientific and political reasons they don’t really have a choice, and they know it.
red wombat – or John Coward.
Red Wombat, Just Me…
I’d be suitably chastened and repent my sin of Questioning The Rudd, but there’s something in the man I’m not sure of.
Try as I might, I can’t understand a word he’s saying, most of the time. In one ear, out the other. Frankly, he speaks in gobbledeegook. And so do Penny Wong and a lot of the other ministers.
Now I have a certain faith, but note the operative word: “Faith”. Faith needs a booster shot every now and again, unless it’s blind. And I’m not the “Blind Faith” type of chap.
I cannot believe that in God’s Wonderful World Full Of Little Green Apples, it is impossible for Rudd or one of his ministers to craft an introductory primer into Global Warming and the ETS in words of three syllables or less, and, when asked a direct question by the likes of Cassidy (who youse must admit was on his best behavior today, and good on him), to bloody-welll answer it without sounding like a bad impersonation of Sir Humphrey Applebey.
The general Mob out there is yearning to support the government, if only they had a clue what was going on. So far there is nothing.: I mean literally, not a clue.
Just a straightforward canvassing of the options in response to Cassidy’s question would have sufficed. I know, I know, the ferals at what Possum calls the “shallow end of the Media Pool” would have a field day, but Rudd’s political capital is starting to flake off at the edges. I’m afraid that when the time comes he won’t have enough capital in the bank to complete the construction.
Today’s conversation devoled down to a squalid, populist discussion of 6 year olds sitting naked and looking provocative. It should have been about the big issues, not this artsy-fartsy pap. That’s tabloid stuff, more suitable to an outraged Daily Telegraph front page than a sober discussion of all the options.
You can’t expect the public to have the same faith in Rudd and his government that is (touchingly) shown here. So far, I personally have been disappointed in Rudd: caving in to this, amendments on the fly to that. I sustain myself in hoping that he’ll get it right on the night. That’s faith, but it needs a boost every now and again, and boosts are so far few and far between.
However whatever my personal point of view, I can’t expect the community at large to share that optimism.
Keep it simple Mr. Rudd. Level with the doubters. Bugger the polls. Stand up for something.
Does anyone know if the Federal Govt. makes any revenue from coal? I know states charge royalties.
Just asking.
Using a figure of $40 per tonne for CO2 it seems to me that fuel would rise by about 7 cents a litre for average motorists. If we offset this by the double dipping GST (brought in by the rodent) on excise of 3.8 cents that can surely be politically palatable with low income compensation. Especially if a large chunk is devoted to research into alternatives.
Does anybody have any views on how the impending implosion of the State Labor Govt in NSW will play out in Canberra?
Why introduce a tax only to hand it back, people don’t respond as well to the stick as they do the carrot. Its just unbelievable that the chattering classes are all swallowing the one measure that will give the libs the edge. “Popularism equals the narrowing”. Lemming like.
Put the Libs back in the gun, there is a whole generation who are really pissed off with our attitudes to climate change. One political cycle means very little, Imagine at the next election if Brendan/Malcolm are saying that they can’t support a coherant reponse because they don’t want a 7c increase in taxes on fuel! Suddenly it becomes thier problem.
I make the broader point again, why are people falling for the old trick of a specific tax to address a negative issue. We DONT tax people to support unpopular measures, why make an exception for this. Here’s a thought just imagine what Andrew Bolt is doing right now.
“ALP prepares to drive AUS economy into the dark. Those of us from planet earth should start to worry about now. After the price of oil doubling the shadow Greens in the ALP are now suggesting a 5% increase in fuel prices etc etc etc.There is simply no real evidence that “Climate Change” is anything more than a strange fiction of the twisted minds of the Rome Club and a few bankrupt scientist short on fundingetc etc etc.
Eddy at 499
Probably with immense relief if they had any sense.
Hmm Possum,
Labor splits dont tend to be isolated. Any student of the Great Split would say the destruction of the QLD and VIC state governments were enormous elements in keeping federal Labor out.
The split has occured, its called the Greens and they deliver 20% of the ALP vote, are distrustful of the Libs and are soaking up the young vote year after year. The Greens have more real members than the DLP or the DEMs ever had and are there for the long haul. Its just a shame that the ALP operates on who is up who and not merit. They will implode in NSW as they can not clean out their rump.
Eddy, The Labor party aint what it used to be – of which most of them in Canberra are no doubt quite thankful.
NSW is such a farce, an outbreak of open warfare can only become an improvement. Strangely, if a good old fashoned coup takes place – the new leadership will probably be as populist as hell, and knowing NSW voters, they’ll fall for it in spades.
“We saved the power industry”, “we purged the developers” etc etc.
All stark raving nonsense, but since when has that ever stopped the NSW electorate from lapping it twaddle they want to here?
(No offence to the Mexicans reading or course
)
You were going OK ESJm for a couple of minutes until the wishful thinking bit started.
Settle in for the long haul in Opposition, mate. It’s the best way to avoid disappointment. Your darling Libs won’t be back any time soon, not until they face up to reality and reform themselves and their party’s attitudes. They need to quit the stunts and start the policies. And an uncosted 5c a litre ain’t a policy, especially to fight Global Warming.
The rest of your fantasy eminates from the bilious pens of Pies Akerman and Glenn Milne… with hangers on chorusing “Yay!”. They’re wet-dreaming, ESJ.
Don’t fall for it… for your own sanity.
Or alternatively for those of you not using a bablefish, optical edition, that second last line should have read:
“All stark raving nonsense, but since when has that ever stopped the NSW electorate from lapping up twaddle they want to hear?”
Many apologies. The dysfunction of NSW Labor is contagious just by talking about it.
BB.
I agree that it would not hurt Rudd to speak a bit more plainly, and get into some detail (although Rudd did note today that the climate change devil is in the detail, and did point out that there will be at least some economic pain which has to be addressed iin some way, so he is both aware of these things and acknowledging them). I also agree that his political capital is not infinite. But neither am I too concerned about any of this at this point in the proceedings. It is early days in both the political cycle and the development of climate change policy. The difficult climate change policy debate (including the government’s response) is only just starting to move into the details phase. Rudd has said all along that they would start seriously acting once Garnaut’s report was in, so give the government a little more time, the report only came out 3 days ago.
I am no personal fan of Rudd. For example, I do not like his wowser element. He was just a far better choice than the alternative. But I think that overall he is handling the climate change issue reasonably at the moment, certainly WAY better than Howard (or the current opposition mob) ever did or would, and I am prepared to withhold serious judgement on Rudd and his government’s handling of this issue for another 12 months or so. I think there is a good chance that they are going to pleasantly surprise a lot of people.
I also think that many people, especially professional pundits (see most of the MSM in Oz), are still stuck in a conventional view of the human political, economic and social landscape. But make no mistake, once the general population accepts the fact, seriousness, and urgency of climate change, and start to feel personally threatened by it, (and I think they are just about there), then the political landscape will also change profoundly and quickly, with a lot of ideology disappearing in a puff of insubstantial rhetorical smoke. Rudd has positioned himself and the government far better to take (legitimate) advantage of that shift than the opposition has.
I’d be suitably chastened and repent my sin of Questioning The Rudd…
Don’t be so melodramatic. Nobody is suggesting Rudd is above fair and substantive criticism, I just haven’t seen much of it yet. (Though I have no doubt shortcomings and failures will emerge over time, all leaders and governments have them.)
I have been posted for a long while that future Australian politics will be approx:
Centre/Right Labor = 50 odd %
Firm Right Liberal = 30 odd %
Left Greens = 20 odd %
Labour are happy to shed the Left to pick up the moderate conservatives.
In the age of Climate Change, a Rightward Labour and a Left Greens(including some Unions and Progressives) will be making most of the deals.
Where does that leave the Tories?
^^^ posted = posting
Oh BB,
Of course and then the fuhrers miracle weapons will throw the bolshevik beast from the gates of the Reich and Berlin will be German again. U R dreaming sport.
Ruawake at # 497…
As far as I know the federal gov’t makes no money from coal as such, but they would be rakeing in a fair bit of company tax from the coal companys (more or less 30% of the adjusted annual profits, because 30% is the company tax rate, but subject to the net effect of didvidend imputation and marginal tax rates applied to the company’s resident shareholders).
Of course they would also be collecting GST (except in respect of coal exports), but that would be passed onto the states and territories.
Kevin Rudd papered over the union problem last year. Dean Mighell was actually a godsend for him.
The problem which NSW exposes is that the interests of governing are in direct conflict with the ALP’s union base. Electricity is the thin edge of the wedge in terms of Labors public sector union base – there are approximately 20,000 union members in electricity in NSW out of a total of 600,000 union members in the State. The public sector is half of this total.
Already weakened unions will go under if the public sector is “reformed” because potentially public sector reform like the other states already experienced in the 90’s will probably take out about a quarter of that 600,000. Many of the unions are on life-support as it is – take WorkChoices lite AND public sector reform and its over.
Surprisingly many in the unions arent prepared to be driven to the funeral home and are resisting hence the conflict.
ESJ the real fun begins with the proviso that the Queensland Liberals don’t implode during the constitutional conventions on July 26 and 27, when Federal Parliament next sits. The sight of Queensland Nationals being able to sit in the Liberal Party room and vote for the next Liberal Leader is something to be cherished.
Kevin Rudd would LOVE to take on the Unions more. More moderate Libs will drift over to his side. Labour haven’t been seen as friends of the Unions since the days of Hawke. That’s about the timeframe that Possums drift away from the Libs started happening.
Only old idealogues see Labour as loonie lefties. Increasingly among the bulk of the electorate Labour are the “sensible Centrist” Party while the “Right” and the “Left” have their own Parties.
Climate Change is a death knell to the Libs unless they awake from the slumber. But even if they awake, which flank can they attack from?
As Piping Shrike writes( i hope i use his thoughts correctly) Labour are all about capable management now. Manage things satisfactorily and turnover personel when necessary and they will reign.
I figure Rudd is marching to a predetermined plan, (although I agree BB, something to sell at dinner party’s would help)
1. Get elected
2. Find out WTF is in the detail, regarding various issues during the first 12months… ( for a freebie, let the opp, msn, fart to the wind during that time)
3. Decided on a way to go…
4. Hit it in September …
Follow the Preferences,
The Diamond Valley Branch of the DLP, which covered only part of the old Diamond Valley electorate, had just on 100 members. The Victorian DLP had close to 20,000 people who, while not members, would hand out how to vote cards, do letterboxing and/or be on the donations list. How many members do the Victorian Greens actually have? How many workers do they actually have?
ESJ,
The NSW ALP Conference vote against electricity privatisation was overwhelming. If all union delegates voted against it, then the branch delegates were three-to-one against it. The question it poses is how democratic is the Labor Party. Vince Gair got expelled for delaying the implementation of party policy. He didn’t even go directly against it.
You are right about Labor Governments being prepared to take on the union movement; e.g., in the recent Victorian teachers’ dispute The unions are much less relevant today, basically because they have won, but workers pay a price for the weakness of unions; e.g., in the historically low percentage of national income that goes in wages and salaries.
I am glad to see that you put “reform” in quotation marks. It is one of the most misused words in the language, “flexibility” and “data” being the other two members of the Unholy Trinity.
2 b sure Chris 516.
ESJ,
In school-speak, before a particularly unpleasant class: “2B or not 2B, that is the question.”
Chris @516.
look at the voting results of Greens and DLP results.
It will be on the AEC website for each electorate and every booth.
I think the last count for the greens was about a million votes nation wide.
Not sure about the DLP….
jen,
The DLP polled 11 per cent of the national vote and 19 per cent of the Victorian vote in the 1970 Senate election. (I am not talking about the current DLP.)
Chris – 1970????????
Fair enough.
p.s Do you still wear flairs?
jen,
Not really. I still have my flairs, my purple paisley body shirt, my high heel boots, my loud ties, etc, but the flairs have shrunk quite a bit over the last 33 years. However, I quite liked the 70s.
FTP said “than the DLP…ever had”. I might add that there were 6,000 people at the DLP’s 1958 policy speech in Victoria in 1958. No, I wasn’t one of them, but I have the photo.
ESJ, I’m dreaming/i>?
This is how politically successful the Libs have been of late:
* 48 Newspolls lost in a row. Ditto for the other polling organisations.
* Out of power in all states and territories.
* Government thrown out of office last November, including the Prime Minister losing his seat.
* Current leader polling on 15%.
* Current party polling on 45%.
And you say I am dreaming that the Libs don’t need reform? That there mightn’t just possibly be a problem with them?
Or is salvation just around the corner. “Darkest before the dawn” and all that?
Because it’s pretty dark right now, sonny.
Queensland has a new Governor, Penelope Wensley, who will be the replacement for Quentin Bryce when she becomes GG.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/exdiplomat-named-qld-governor/2008/07/06/1215282636532.html
507 Just Me – I wish I had written that. Spot on.
Aberrantly, Rudds in big trouble
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23979407-601,00.html
Perhaps apparently is a better word… *groan*
BB,
I analyse in absolute terms not relativism. By way of analogy your view seems to be akin to an alcoholic being dismissive of a drug addict.
Oh dear…had a conversation (polite) with a Young Lib member the other day.
I said part of their problem was that they didn’t know if they were Conservatives or liberals.
His response was,”Well, that’s what we have to sort out before the next election.”
I know one rose does not a summer make, but if the Libs don’t know what they are NOW, they’re in deeper trouble than I thought.
(He also said conservatives believe that people should be able to have whatever they want if they can afford it. He presented this as a core belief. The whole conversation was very worrying).
Zoom
Re libs not knowing if they are conservatives or liberals.
When a couple of libs jumped ship recently to Family First they said it was because the libs were not conservative enough and that Family First was the true conservative party.
Interesting statement for them to make, seeing as how majority of Family First preferences went to labor. Are they out to alienate a large part of the FF support base or aiming for a takeover ala the old NDP?
ESJ, don’t know what drugs you’re on yourself, but if you think the Libs are going to make a comeback any time soon – without reform and without policy – then take some more. You’ll need them to get you through the pain.
To Chris Curtis,
Thank you, now I understand why the ALP machine in Victoria gave preferences to the DLP at the last State election, holding out a Green member and putting a high performing DLP member in.
There does seem to be a disconnect in the ALP in their dealings with the Greens and not surprisingly at the Gippsland byelection the Greens did a split ticket.
Oh as to history, wasn’t the DLP the party that kept the ALP in opposition fro years?
BB@531
hallucinogens obviously.
Bushfire Bill, it was only 10 years ago, they were saying the same thing about the labor party.
This is an interesting article for green house warming
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/apocalypse_soon
533 dovif – “ONLY” 10 years. That’s a bloody long time in the wilderness, as the Libs may very well discover if they’re not careful.
Tasmanian Greens to announce leadership changes at 1:00pm EST.
dovif, you quoted a blog by Janet… that in itself is a worry. How is there not being debate on this? The media has being bagging Rudd from pillar to post since taking office, beating up practically everything he does and any point he puts forward. Now, if that isn’t criticism and ‘debate’ from the opposing view of the government then I don’t know what is. It’s a lot more debate than we ever got when Howard was in power and ramming legislation through the senate with NO debate whatsoever.
“Albrechtsen’s journalism is nothing more than belligerent and partisan fiction. She is simply a blackguard. And an exceptionally dull one at that.”
Paul Keating
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/keating_breaks_his_silence_on_newspaper_commentator
Ahhhh Keating,
he’s still got it.
Love that Keating touch. Rudd is just so dull in comparison. As for Nelson….
Just Because Janet has a different political view does not make what she say any less valid, you can probably make the same comment about Maxine before she became a pollie.
and Chris Uhlmann works for the ABC and Janet is reporting his view
For the record, do not put me in the skeptic category, I think CO2 need to be reduced but not for Global warming, but because lack of sun causes draughts
Interesting how George M finishes this piece…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23979407-601,00.html
Sample of two – one (claimed) disaffected and one who never was.
To finish the summary of a survey with your own survey of two – to somehow confirm the above is a bit of a worry.
541
dovif
I use door snakes to cut out draughts
RU
Comment from that Keating article.
“I think I need a cigarette after that. Can The Australian please give Paul Keating a regular spot?”
Yeah, I don’t really see what the point is in going out and interviewing Liberal voters on their opinions of Rudd. He killed off their messiah, so what would you expect them to say?
Worst major poll figure currently 55-45. I rest my case.
541
dovif Says:
Just Because Janet has a different political view does not make what she say any less valid,
It does if Janet is allegedly basing her views on science, and is completely wrong. She is entitled to her own opinion, but not her own facts. You will notice that in today’s rant she offered not one jot of substantive evidence against the science supporting anthropogenic global warming. Indeed, the only ‘evidence’ she did offer was totally wrong, by any vaguely rational standard. All she had was superficial rhetorical analogies about belief in climate change being religious in nature. Truly pathetic stuff.
you can probably make the same comment about Maxine before she became a pollie.</i
Are you seriously claiming that Albrechtson’s wilfully ignorant, partisan rantings are the same high quality journalism that McKew practised during her time in the profession? Puhleese.
Of course, that should read:
you can probably make the same comment about Maxine before she became a pollie.
Are you seriously claiming that Albrechtson’s wilfully ignorant, partisan rantings are the same high quality journalism that McKew practised during her time in the profession? Puhleese.
Just me
- don’t you just love it when people useteh old -”I, entitled to have a different opinion” line to defend the indefensible. Like “I believe the earth is flat” when it just bloody well isn’t.
Climate change is unfortunately as real as you can get, and the naysayers are arrogant fools of the highest order.
Janet’s is another bootstrapping routine.
Uhlmann (and he should know because he was a seminarian, you see) is uniquely gifted to recognize a religion when he sees one. So therefore we should listen to this uniquely gifted man and take his words as Gospel. He is a voice in the wilderness, like Moses. He dares to speak the truth, like Jesus. He is telling us that the Old Testamant of Global Warming orthodoxy is OK to pooh-pooh. Why? Because he’s an ex-seminarian.
It goes round and round in circles.
How long until we hear them all quoting each other?
Janet mentions 6 of the hottest 10 years since 1934 have occurred before 1998, with the other 4 after that. That would make it one hot year in about every 11 (6/64) before 1998, and one hot year in every 5 (4/20) since 1998. That’s only more than a doubling of the rate of hot years in the past two decades, compared to the previous three. Nothing at all to worry about. Janet’s got a right to her opinion, and her opinion is that this increase doesn’t mean anything. Anyway, Uhlmann says it’s all hocus-pocus anyway. And he’s an ex-seminarian.
What I reckon we should do is…. do nothing. That way, when the last of the polar ice caps have melted and the sea levels have risen a metre or so, at least we won’t have been suckered into acting too soon by those other countries who are now hammering at oru door to let them in… or else.
If we’re going to f*ck the planet by inaction, we make as well go the whole hog and party instead. Let’s build more coal fired stations, buy bigger cars, leave all the lights on. Global Warming’s a myth, right? We shouldn’t even contemplate that we could use the opportunity to do something about changing the technology we currently use to keep ourselves warm, or that moves our cars about. Let someone else do that. We dig holes here inaustralia. that’s our job in the world. That, and refusing to accept that there could possibly be any kind of benefits to an ETS.
I mean, we’d be suckers if we didn’t have a good time before we hand the Planet back to the cockroaches, wouldn’t we?
Bob,
How’s heaven?
The ALP recommended preferences to the DLP in the last state election in return for the new DLP’s recommending preferences to ALP candidates in the Northern Metropolitan, South-East Metropolitan and Western Metropolitan regions. The ALP and the Greens are not allies – they are competitors, and neither party is obligated to help the other. They, like all parties, do deals that they see advantage in. The ALP’s main aim is government. Its secondary aim is an Upper House that will co-operate with it. Given the unlikelihood of the ALP ever controlling an Upper House (nor should it), the ALP’s best practical option is to seek to create an Upper House in which it can choose its partners. Thus, a Victorian Legislative Council with 19 ALP, 2 DLP and 2 Greens is better than one with 19 ALP, 1 DLP and 3 Greens, but one with 19 ALP, 1 DLP and 3 Greens is better than one with 19 ALP, 0 DLP and 4 Greens. This is practical politics and should be surprising to no one.
The left-wing controllers of the ALP in the 1950s kept the ALP out of office for a generation by their stupid decision to expel the party’s anti-communist members. The DLP unsurprisingly recommended preferences to the Liberals as a way of pressuring the ALP to reform itself, which it eventually did.
Bob! Bob! Are you up there? Bugger, wrong place.
Given that Barack Obama’s stated ETS policy is very similar to the one proposed by Garnaut.
http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2200768/obama-unveils-plans-carbon-cap
Will Brenda finally back an EST if the US introduces one?
“Instead of idly debating the precise extent of global warming or the precise timeline of global warming, we need to deal with the central facts of rising temperatures, rising waters and all the endless troubles that global warming will bring,” he said.
“We stand warned by serious and credible scientists across the world that time is short and the dangers are great. The most relevant question now is whether our own government is equal to the challenge.”
“As never before, the market would reward any person or company that seeks to invent, improve or acquire alternatives to carbon-based energy,” he said.
Who is “he”?
John McCain who also supports an ETS.
Gary,
I just knew I’d get that response.
It’s so quiet in the US election forum.
dovif @ 541 -
Chris Uhlmann works for the ABC and Janet is reporting his view
As an ex seminarian, Uhlmann’s view may be coloured by fears of a return to the old paganistic worship of nature which Christianity has battled so long to destroy.
I am particularly struck by the following in Albrechtsen’s piece:
Uhlmann said that while the Government’s line is that if we start late, it might cost Australia more, the Opposition can say “hang on, Copenhagen is in 2009 – that is when the world will get together [on climate change] – and if the world doesn’t act, this won’t be solved. Why should Australia get too far ahead of the game?”
1) We won’t be ahead of the developed world’s response, but toward the tail of the pack.
2) What difference will it make if we act and the rest of the world doesn’t. As the country with the most to loose from CC it won’t matter a jot if we save our treasure by sticking collective heads up collective arses. What we save on the denialist swing will be lost on reality’s roundabout many times over.
Our only hope is convincing the rest of humanity to act decisively. They are much less likely to do so if we sit on our bums on the sidelines sniggering like little boys as we count our ‘marbles.’
My concern with Albrechtsen’s comment fluff is that she compared Toolman and Barry (Oh Kev – why do you hate me).
Did it enter her head, that as an ABC board member, it is inappropriate to comment in public about ABC staff? Probaly not
She is an utter disgrace, and walking proof of the previous government’s deliberate efforts and success at moving the ABC well to the right
Albrechtson is one of the last survivors of Howrd’s neocons still in a position of power.
Not for much longer methinks.
As the US election is showing (promise I won’t go there in a big way on this thread), Obama’s rise is a result of the death of the extreme rightwing attitudes that she has so fervently defended. Including denial of climate change.
Good riddance when her time is up, along with Windschuttle.
At least Windschuttle keeps his mouth shut.
557
ruawake Says:
Did it enter her head, that as an ABC board member, it is inappropriate to comment in public about ABC staff? Probaly not
JA is a law unto herself. In JanetWorld she has no conflicts of interest, no obligation to base her views on evidence and logic, and can treat others as she sees fit.
548
Jen Says:
- don’t you just love it when people useteh old -”I, entitled to have a different opinion” line to defend the indefensible. Like “I believe the earth is flat” when it just bloody well isn’t.
Climate change is unfortunately as real as you can get, and the naysayers are arrogant fools of the highest order.
But do you think they will
a) ever admit they were wrong in any way, or
b) believe that hence they personally should pay any sort of price for their irrational obstructionist ideology?
Nope. They will be blaming the government for not acting sooner and more forcefully, and demanding some sort of assistance from them.
I was amazed to see Tony Burke spruike a climate theory as fact. How stupid is that. As some of you know I am a AGW skeptic (denialist if you want, it is only a self serving label). However even true believers know that IPCC reports paint AGW in a range from mild to wild. This model that Tony was touting obviously was at the more alarming end of the scale.
With any climate model we have a range of assumptions that are inputed into it. These can be tropospheric temps, surface temps, SST’s etc. Burke seems happy to push the most extreme circumstances yet will play down any minimalist possibilities.
He also never mentioned the limitations of this model, and presented the thing as fact. This alarmist claptrap should be seen for what it is, spin. What is more, modelling two years out is so unreliable no reputable meterologist would hang their reputation on it. Must be why I have scoured the net trying to find a copy of this report and learning who the authors are. I rang up the local met office to see if they knew and was told it was something the BoM would not normally release, The furthest out they deal with is seasonal outlooks with probabilities.
zedder, I would think that the BoM would be more likely to study short term weather than long term, as that is their core role.
BB-
Windschuttle wrote a whole book denying that there was violence against aborigines during white settlement.
Should have kept his hand still too.
It was presented as a joint BoM – CSIRO report, hence my phone call to the BoM.
Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO – now why would they tell Fibs? Of course its all a plot.
Why has every review comissioned by western govts. come up with “oops – things are crook in tullarook” ’cause its all a plot.
Why is Tony spending $46 million on finding ways to improve agricultural practises? ‘Cause its all a plot?
No tin hats here Ruawake. Just identifying spin when I see it.
OK zedder,
Lets get rid of the “experts” and get the Govt. to Google it. I’m sure Andrew Robb would agree.
Here is a little secret, 18 months is too short a time frame to physically build the government’s infrastructure to put into place the emission trading scheme. It will take the 2 year window where there is no trading to actually get the system ready.
zedder @ 563 -
What is more, modelling two years out is so unreliable no reputable meterologist would hang their reputation on it. Must be why I have scoured the net trying to find a copy of this report and learning who the authors are. I rang up the local met office to see if they knew and was told it was something the BoM would not normally release, The furthest out they deal with is seasonal outlooks with probabilities.
Climate and weather are two separate animals, zedder.
I think you are referring to the CSIRO Climate report which you’ll find on their website.
hehe ruwake!
zedder –
I wish you were right, but I fear you are not. And so does by far the majority of scientific opinion around te world from all quarters and countries involved in scientific evaluation.
Let’s hope they are all alarmists and we can all drive Hummers to our heart’s content.
sigh. zedder. go back a couple of pages to where charles posted a link to a series posted by Brian at Larvatus Prodeo. It’s not original research in itself, but the series draws together a range of research on topics related to the issue of global climate change or warming, whatever you want to call it. The B of M does not do this type of research. They collect data which others, such as the CSIRO, use to do research, i.e., the B of M wont be able to provide you with the information you’re after. Go to the links via charles, or alternatively go to Larvatus Prodeo and track back to Brian’s posts.
I think I’m going to scream if I hear another “senior political” whatever, unable to tell the difference between the climate and the weather. Tools, all of them, and serve the Australian public ill.
Harry-
don’t scream. Most people are getting it. And those that don’t have the Liberals to vote for.
Let us get this definition clear.
Climate
The atmospheric conditions over a long period of time. Generally refers to the normal or mean course of the weather. Climate includes the future expectation of long-term weather in the order of weeks, months or years in advance.
I would hardly think that a place like Larvatus Prodeo is the most instructive place to find out about weather. In a previous post I invited this group to come over to weatherzone where you can debate this subject alongside amateurs and professionals who have been observing the climate and weather over a long period of time. I haven’t seen anyone over there
I have been posting there for about 7 years and as you can take out of this it is an area of great interest to me.
You will find me over there with the handle seaweed BTW
Sorry ruawake; the CSIRO and BoM are in on it – up to their necks. They’ve been forced into this position by NASA.
It’s all because everyone was starting to cotton on to the fact that the moon landings were staged in a BoM outpost centre in central SA on CSIRO land.
The only way to stop the secret getting out was to think up an even bigger lie, and thus GISS was born. (And we all know that Al Gore’s father was a Democrat Senator at the same time as Lyndon Johnson, who was instrumental in getting NASA stared… ah!! the pieces start to fall into place now).
And is it just me or does James Hansen’s last name sound suspiciously like Bill Henson’s!!! Hansen, Henson, Hansen, Henson – if you say them repeatedly they start to seem like they are in fact the same and wow we know what that means!!! (I’m telling you, these are facts people!!!)
They’ll stop at nothing!!!
Praise be those brave sould like Andrew Bolt and Janet A for seeing the truth. Hold firm, you mighty warriors!
I have been posting there for about 7 years and as you can take out of this it is an area of great interest to me.
And you still don’t understand the difference in predicting short term weather and long term climate?
570 – yes I do understand the difference. Your worthless point?
That should of been 579. My apologies to B S Fairman
Oh, hi there!
I forgot to give William my sick certificate. Hope I am still employed.
Things have been a bit crummy, lately, in my world.
I read you, always.
zedder – perhaps what causes the confusion is statements like this:
What is more, modelling two years out is so unreliable no reputable meterologist would hang their reputation on it.
when talking about a report on climate that predicts we’re are going to have droughts more often than in the past.
A meteorologist is unlikely to predict the weather 2 years ahead – IME they often have trouble predicting it 2 hours ahead – but a climatologist’s modelling may well suggest that droughts may become much more frequent as a result of actual or foreseeable changes in parameters that affect climate. So it is prudent that a Minister of Agriculture would plan ahead for the likelihood of having to cough up more dollars in drought relief.
The fact that the Southern Oscillation Index is, once again, swinging back into El Nino mode after only a very short respite indicates that the climatologists are, unfortunately, probably right.
This forum is not designed for this type of debate. In deference to BillBowe I will not argue the nittygritty of climate theory. I do ask however that some of you review the following documentary on youtube.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fr5O1HsTVgA&feature=rec-fresh
I urge you to watch all 5 parts.
What I am trying to convey is that there is not a concensus in science. There are very intelligent people who have a straight forward evidence that contradicts the IPCC. The IPCC is not the sole beholder of the truth.
Bringinging this discussion back to the polical side, to belittle those politicians that seek to be cautious on this issue shows a lack of wisdom and maturity. We are making big decisions about where the focus of our resources should be. Personally I believe that habitat destruction, deforestation and species extinction is the biggest threat to the planet. If we decided to put our money into this area Australia would be better off. Pay the owners of Cubbie station $100 million dollars to P off and give the Murray a good flush would be a good start. Protect the Kimberley and limit Australia’s population growth would be another good idea. To jump at shadows, to spend billions on a non existent problem is plain daft.
zedder, quite frankly IMO being ‘cautious’ is a cop out. The risk of doing nothing is just too great to contemplate.
I see action on climate change as a similar thing to buying an insurance policy for your home. Sure, you might not get your house broken into or burnt down, but if you don’t own home & contents insurance these days you are an idiot. Yes, it costs money, but the risk of not having it is just too high.
Garnaut’s estimate for the cost of acting now… about 1% of GDP. As a prosperous nation how can we honestly say that is too much to outlay when we look at what could be at risk for our children?
Sorry about the name and other typing getting a bit skew if. The newly 3 legged cat just keeos intruding on the message. There you go it’s supposed to be “keeps intruding”, etc.. Puts cat on couch, says stay there, hopefully.
It seems to me that it may be more accurate to speak about climate change as it relates to both domestic and international policy.
Tony Burke announced today a big increase to the farming sector to adapt to climate change, and it was a big increase. Clearly, the production of food is of interest to the gov’t. Cute move on the National Party heartland
Clearly, the cabinet, goes on making decisions in the absence of Rudd.
Righto, Brendon (I’m a doctor) says well, nooo, we shouldn’t do anything ahead of the rest of the world in relation to adaptation to climate change/warming. Hasn’t noticed the EU already has.
Gawd almighty, I’m just an amateur, but Horatio is supposed to be a professional.
Zedder, I’m willing to watch all five bits of the doco you have nominated and report back in terms of impact on domestic policy, if you’re prepared to watch and review Brian’s work on Larvatus Prodeo and report back on impact on domestic policy. A compare and contrast, if you like, and it must be related to domestic and global ploicy. Bugger, the cat had a say again.
Harry, have you and Brian got a thing going?
Deal Harry. Truly I am agnostic about the issue. I am always ready to say sorry I was wrong. Let the facts speak. 25 years trading futures has made me like that. Every day I am proven wrong (hopefully not that much!) I laughed when one of the posters above tried to tell me what a trend is… ha
zedder
If all that comes out of this is cleaner cities, less acid rain in Europe and reduce demand on non renewable resource, does it really matter?
Hey Crikey!
Nice to see you back.
Oh Dear, more drama and tantrums from the Queensland Liberals as the Big Pineapple looms into view:
“AN agreement to merge the Nationals and Liberal Party in Queensland is in danger of collapsing after the Nationals rejected a deal offered by the Liberals to end a stalemate over the new party’s presidency.
The future of the agreement was thrown into doubt as Liberal powerbroker Santo Santoro called for the new party to be headed by former state Liberal president Gary Spence.
The Liberal National Party of Queensland was set to be established after Nationals and Liberal members voted in postal ballots in favour of merging the two parties.
A three-way tussle for the presidency of the new party has emerged between Mr Spence, former Howard government minister Mal Brough and Queensland Nationals president Bruce McIver. Mr Spence’s Liberal Right faction, headed by Mr Santoro, favours the merger but many Liberals are concerned that under an agreement negotiated by Mr Spence their party would be swallowed up by the Nationals.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23979349-5006786,00.html
I would have thought that Mr. Santoro by now would be as popular in the Liberal Party as Brian Burke in a cabinet minister’s office.
Glad to see I’m wrong.
I’ve said it once and i’ll say it again without China, India and Brazil our efforts are worthless.Nelson is right to say wait and see.
Zedder, I agree with you when you say, “What I am trying to convey is that there is not a concensus in science. There are very intelligent people who have a straight forward evidence that contradicts the IPCC. The IPCC is not the sole beholder of the truth.”
So we do nothing and if they are wrong we are rat sh.t. Yeah, that sounds like a logical way of working.
Gary the point is we should not lead on this as what ever we do won’t amount to much.
Take this analogy if the world needed to buy something for a dollar and Australia’s contribution was only 1 cent how much closer do you think we’ll be to that dollar?
“Gary the point is we should not lead on this as what ever we do won’t amount to much.”
John you are basing your argument on an incorrect premise. We won’t be leading the world. As Garnaut said we in fact will be about middle of the pile. Many countries have started already.
So, if we were Chinese John, would you be advocating we wait for India to do something before we (China) did anything?
So you don’t believe we should pay our fair share?
Gary, don’t you wish the Liberals and their claque would remember a few simple proverbs.
“The journey of a thousand league commences with one small step”.
“Count the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves”.
“Rome wasn’t built in a day”.
And in Nelson’s case, given his foolish utterances of the day,
An empty vessel makes the most noise”.
Sorry for the delay in my posts.
Gary #597, Which countries have an emissions trading scheme.
Gary #598, If I were Chinese I would be praying for democracy and hand up from poverty. I would also be more inclined to examine the science behind global warming since the world’s temp hasn’t increased since 1998.
Dario, I do not believe in AGW.
Fulvio all good proverbs.
The issue with Global Warming is that when you have irrefutable proof it is too late. Final verification is the actual seeing of the thing happen One can argue until doomsday about whether the final “t” is crossed and whether glorious democracy has been respected and whether everyone has had heir say. Yet democracy would mean nothing in such a dead world.
In life there are many things we do without the very final proof – there is such a thing as conviction. With the really big things it is usually the same.
Taking the debate beyond a certain point is just another strategy of blocking any attempt to either stop the effects of GW or at least mitigating it.
India says no: http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/draft/
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/yoursay/index.php/theaustralian/comments/hard_to_see_what_rudd_is_achieving/
John, I’m having a bit of a crackdown at the moment on links with no input from the commenter. Thanks.
Malcolm Colless of The Australian examines the Rudd governments tough decisions: http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/yoursay/index.php/theaustralian/comments/hard_to_see_what_rudd_is_achieving/
Hope I got that right William.
John of Melbourne @ #601,
to answer your question to Gary,
quite a few countries…..
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/emission.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading#European_Union
and while we’re in the business of linking to News Limited stories, you might like this one…..
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21703373-662,00.html
Nighty night all!
J of M, I have just read that Colless piece and I clearly, confidently and strongly disagree with every point made.
Look, I think those News Journos are quite dillusional. Maybe be they should all get together, lock themselves up in a room and bang each other until they come to their senses and accept the fact that we had a change in government on 24/11/07.
For those who have been arguing that care for the environment does not invite voters check out this latest report of four major councils in this years local government elections in Queensland.
The report claims to prove an anti amalgamation vote too but the point seems to hang very much on the profile of former Noosa Mayor Bob Abbott and the LGAQ contention seems weak.
http://www.lgaq.asn.au/lgaq/images/LGAQ/LGAQ%202008%20Results%20report_1.pdf
Geez John, even your hero, Rupert Murdoch, has got it “wrong” in regard to CC.
Brenden doesn’t read possums blog.
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/nelson-backs-out-of-2011-emissions-trading-20080707-34ex.html
Poor Liberals have been wedged big time, and they have a very small set on their side of the wedge.
Does anyone have any idea what Brendan is doing with his rantings about the ‘Children in art’ debate. Who was the Guru who told him that he needs to sound strong and definite all the time, he sounds increasingly like a whinger. The news last night absolutely skinned him. There was the 11 years old saying that it was her favourite photo and then Brendan going bolistic sounding very strong but coming across as wierd.
For a moment I thought that the Libs were doing OK but they are just a complete joke. They only have one stick in the golf bag.
Brenda is in danger of outwedging himself, this short term politics only works for so long! The only thing he’s had going for him lately is petrol prices, and the assistance of the media, which is still largely pro Liberal Party.
While Brenda and the Liberals fiddle whole sections of australian business are sifting through the report from various perspectives including legal preparing for implementation of the ETS.
http://www.deacons.com.au/legal-services/environment-planning/climate-change/legal-updates/legal-update.cfm?objid=6504
Re The Australian and its never-ending series of anti-Labor pieces, I sent the following letter today:
‘The way in which Liberal supporters are reacting to the election of Kevin Rudd in the pages of The Australian has instructive parallels with their reaction to the election of Steve Bracks in 1999. Following that election, letters predicting gloom and doom filled the press. Meanwhile, the Victorian Labor Government just got on with implementing its policies, the ones it supposedly did not have: more police, more nurses, more doctors, more teachers, smaller classes, massive capital investment in schools, the Victorian Institute of Teaching (since copied in NSW and WA), reform of the Legislative Council, constitutional protection of the auditor-general, etc. Amazingly, the Liberals countered with the claim that Labor didn’t actually do anything, while the voters saw the results every day. The Liberals descended into chaotic irrelevance, and the Victorian people re-elected Labor in two historic landslides. Kevin Rudd will win the next election with an increased majority.
‘Yours sincerely,
Chris Curtis
‘Emailed to letters@theaustralian.com.au
As Party like it’s 1999’
A Labor governmnt using Work Choices to crush a union strike:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/worldyouyouthday/rail-strike-order-sought/2008/07/08/1215282785711.html
So which is it James, Labor is being run by the unions or they are not and which do you prefer?
Excellent letter Chris.
It’s increasingly looking like Labor won’t contest Mayo. The Libs are goading them to do so. The most interesting thing looks like the fairly bitter Lib preselection battle, with the rising star 31 yo Rodent staffer being the favourite. He was a big fan of Serfchoices which is now hanging around his neck like a millstone, a fact that his competitors are leaking to the press endlessly in SA.
OPPOSITION Leader Brendan Nelson has lashed out at the Labor Party for considering not running a candidate at the Mayo by-election.
The ALP is yet to decide formally whether to run a candidate, citing cost, but party figures are also worried about the potential to lose votes after last month’s poor result in the Gippsland by-election.
Anger over plan to ignore Mayo
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23985333-2682,00.html
Optimist #607, Ruperts wrong IMHO its a publicity stunt!
PS I also like posting from The Age. It’s ggod to see the ALP using WorkChoices:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw-labor-willing-to-use-workchoices-to-block-strike-20080708-37qw.html
Here’s the one you’ve been waiting to see JoM. Next stop will be Bolta’s blog.
THE science tells us that continued high levels of carbon pollution have led to global warming and if the world continues on a business-as-usual trajectory the consequences for us all will be significant. The economics tells us that the cost of responsible action is much less than if we as a planet fail to act on climate change now. The longer we delay, the higher the cost.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23984420-7583,00.html
Thanks Steve. Of course Rudd agrees with Garnaut he commisioned the report.
Now that the coalition no longer controls the Senate how far will the ETS go since the Greens, Xenephon and Fielding hold the balance of power?
Right through to implementation, JoM.
Thanks, Gary. My publication rate is about 5 per cent, so I’m not even crossing my fingers, given I actually had one in last week.
Steve, Fielding wants a 10c cut in petrol tax
Doesn’t seem likely he will let the ETS through with transport included, unless some of the tax cuts can be used in place of that cut?
JM, thirty pieces of silver is all it takes to change the situation.
ha!
Think it might take more.
he has stopped sending me his newsletter: everytime he sent me one I just pointed out global warming, peak oil etc.
Now that I know you are a CC denier John I guess any action on this front, taken by anyone, is a waste of time and effort in your opinion.
I like how you “write off” Murdoch as a liar and opportunist. He couldn’t be sincere and a believer could he? How could anyone believe such crap sprouted by a majority of scientists. They’re all opportunists and liars aren’t they John? They have so much to gain by making all of this up.
Unfortunately cabinet confidentially prevents us knowing whether Mr Nelson and Mr Downer made similar remarks when the Howard government wimped six out of six by-elections in Labor held seats during 11 years of government. Seven out of seven if you include the Newcastle supplementary election.
Some nice Mayo graphs up at http://www.abc.net.au/elections
Antony
That’s quite amazing. Six out of six no-shows if they were going to lose. I’m not sure what the rationale for running a candidate in a Federal election but not in a by-election is.
There is one candidate who would probably win in Mayo if she ran, either as Labor, Democrat or Independent and that’s NSD. They love her in the Hills. She’s probably too busy helping hubby and Dolly set up Bespoke Solutions or whatever it’s called.
New thread.