Mumble reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead dropping from 59-41 to 55-45, with primary votes of 44 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent for Coalition, 10 per cent for Greens and 7 per cent others. More to follow.
Meanwhile, Alexander Downer confirms he will quit parliament to take up a job as United Nations special envoy to Cyprus. Mayo by-election to follow.
UPDATE (2/7/07): Today’s Australian provides further figures on standard of living expectations, which have plunged shockingly – “get worse” being up from 18 per cent to 43 per cent since December. While I’m here, a belated link to yesterday’s graphic.
UPDATE (3/7/07): Newspoll has released its quarterly aggregated poll which provides breakdowns by state, gender and age. It suggests the Rudd honeymoon effect has been especially strong in South Australia and in metropolitan areas, is fading quickest in Victoria, and did not further increase support for Labor in the 18-34 age group. Two of these four are consistent with the result of the Gippsland by-election.
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ESJ
I think you will find that the relevant documents are in the hands of the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President of the Senate. Don’t believe everything Pies says as gospel.
“Don’t believe everything Pies says as gospel. ”
Amen to that.
Nah, don’t believe ANYthing Pies says as gospel.
Yeah, OK… ANYthing.
Pies listed all those Labor dodgers, avoiding the law, stringing things out to the bitter end, snd so on and so forth.
The only thing he forgot to mention was that all the people he mentioned were acquitted as a result of their insisting that due process was followed.
What did he expect them to do? Fess up, put their wrists out for the handcuffs and say, “You got me g’vner. I done it. Bang to rights.”?
Scorpio @ 226. The usual noise of varying season’s does not support your hypothesis either. After the peak in 1998 we have had slightly cooler weather over the following decade. With increased ice in the Antartic and decreasing ice in the Artic, again it is hard to draw conclusions.
As Dr Roy Spencer from NASA says “Contrary to popular accounts, very few scientists in the world – possibly none – have a sufficiently thorough, “big picture” understanding of the climate system to be relied upon for a prediction of the magnitude of global warming. To the public, we all might seem like experts, but the vast majority of us work on only a small portion of the problem”
Yes let’s talk about all the Labor matyrs – how pathetic
ESJ, they’re not Labor martyrs. They’re innocent people. They’ve availed themselves of the the full gamut of the legal system and been found not guilty.
Pray tell, what’s your problem with that?
ESJ,
Landeryou is running some good stuff on Jamie Briggs one of the contenders for Downer’s seat of Mayo. The interesting stuff is about how Workchoices came to be. It’s good background how the Libs did themselves out of office.
I remember during the campaign you were sceptical of the impact of Workchoices. This will remove all doubt about it’s importance in seeing Howard and co consigned to the dustbin of history.
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2008/07/briggs-role-in-howard-downfall.html
Why am i not surprised that GG is a Slanderyou fan?
GG,
Yes I was wrong.
EStJ
Um BB,
Defo laws prevent more comment on that one but suffice to say the phrases “money” and “senior labor identity” are not strangers.
Last refuge of the scounderl, ESJ. The old “I know certain things but can’t say them” scam.
PATHETIC.
You can argue your points fairly well when you want to. Why do you resort to this crap, mate?
Put up or shut up.
Oh I do not mind an argument BB but to take up your challenge would be unfair to WB.
Edward, your becoming the master of sniping. Not a good look.
Gawd almighty, what has happened to everyone here? I asked a question back at 248 about whether or not anyone had any ideas about a particular question. Response, rubbish from both LNP and Labor supporters.
I ask you how long the person known to his mother as William, might want to up with it put?
Q&A was good viewing again tonight! I like Joe Hockey, he seems a decent sort of bloke who was given the shit job last year of selling Work Choices.
Nicola Roxon was the revelation of the election campaign for me, and she’s kept on doing a good job as Health Minister.
Hockey and Roxon seem to like each other, that’s obvious LOL!
The only thing that peed me off tonight was Tony Jones, continually running the line that the government is in trouble!
Optimist,
I think you will find William (who art in moderation) regularly uses Landeryou as a source for his editorials and information. Therefore, your point is?
Well lets be honest here – I think all of you are listless because there is not much to talk about to be frank.
There appears to be an emerging narrative that Rudd is running a do nothing government. No doubt that is frustrating for those who expected a neo Whitlamite restoration. Further it appears the big idea to seize the agenda is emissions trading.
Truly anyone who thinks the government is going to get emissions trading right has rocks in their head. It will be about as right as the GST.
GG,
I think the point is optimist thinks you have committed thoughtcrime.
Straight out of the Milne playbook. Why were the opposition complaining about so many bills being sent through parliament then? Can’t have it both ways…
“The only thing that peed me off tonight was Tony Jones, continually running the line that the government is in trouble!” And that the “honeymoon” is over. A member of the audeience disputed this and the audience applauded him.
“There appears to be an emerging narrative that Rudd is running a do nothing government.” Which cannot be substantiated.
What has he (Rudd) actually done?
ESJ,
I agree with Gary.
There is a media driven narrative that Rudd…..
The reality on the ground is that people I talk to are quite happy with Rudd and Labor atm.
Oh fergodsake, progressive. How lovely is Joe Hockey? Go check out his actual record on industrial relations. This is the man who said that the then gov’t.’t. ministers, did not understand that workers would be worse off, but passed it anyway.
fair enough GG, newspoll would seem to confirm that view.
Eddie, I refer you to Possum’s site for a bit of reality. You guys.
Better stiil Edward, in the 6 months he has been in government what would you expect Rudd would have done by now?
I blame Howard and Andrews for Work Choices, Hockey was just the bloke called in to plug the hole in the dyke!
I thought the budget was p.ssweak actually GB.
If you were truly committed to a fair society you might have:
a) Wound back the 50% CGT discount;
b) abolished the tax free super payouts; AND
c) increased funding (substantially) for homeless services
Correct me if I am wrong GB but that might actually look like a real honest to goodness Labor program.
Harry,
Agree. The latest post has some real insight over time as to what has been happening.
Very valuable contributions in the comments section too!
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/07/03/newspoll-quarterly-breakdown-2008-1st-edition/#comment-11527
248
Harry “Snapper” Organs Says:
Why the soft support from women?
My own view is women where more offended by tampa, locking innocent people and children up and the war in Iraq than men. They blame Howard and they are now slowly getting over it.
What I also find interesting is the vote in the west, it is still neck and neck, I would have the thought the antics of the local liberals would have put an end to that.
ESJ: All your lot have got going for them is a scare campaign on petrol prices, aided and abetted by the MSM! I grant you that is effective in political terms, but it’s a very short term thing! Where are the opposition’s long term plans and policies?
Progressive, GB asked me a question and I think I gave a fair answer. Criticism of Labor does not necessarily imply support of the alternative.
Come on Edward, that is just debating the budget. You may not think he’s gone far enough in the budget in certain areas, and that’s fair enough, but he has done things, things you just don’t like. By the way, had he done what you suggested Labor would last just under 3 years in office.
What would you have expected Rudd to have ACHIEVED in 6 months of government. The budget sets out the next year of spending etc.
ESJ,
You are a tough taskmaster and I cannot disagree with the policy notions described.
However, Rudd and Co. were effectively locked in to delivering the tax cuts et al the Howard set up. Otherwise they would not have wonethe election. It was either almost match or die.
Rudd has spent a lot of time on addresseing the spiritual side of things e.g. Sorry and ratifying Kyoto and telling the Chinese off about Tibet.
However, there is considerable work being done on Water, Aboriginal Affairs and Tecnology (rolling out highspeed broadband). Look, results will appear soon.
Besides, most people don’t expect much from Government. They just want to see them getting on with it.
Labor are doing that
To be fair to Edward I don’t think it is accurate to lump him in with conservative supporters. I seem to recall him telling me he admired the way Keating did things. Correct me if I’m wrong Edward.
LOL GB, I am fine with the symbolics – apology, kyoto etc.
Actually I do not see the budget as sort of a good housekeeping guide, it allows you to re-order your spending and taxation priorities too!
Yeah GB – I do not believe we will see the likes of PJK for a long long time. He still rocks in my view.
Fair point GG – The COAG stuff may produce results but I am not holding my breath, after all it took us 86 years to agree on uniform food standards in this country.
What about Hockey Joe! He was asked on Q&A if he wants to lead the liberal party? He replied with the usual script of how good Brenda is and how she should be given more time.
The truth is Schrek would love lead the fiberals. Joe, you are on a hiding to nothing. The current PM is one of the best we have ever seen. By the way EStJ knows it. He should switch to state politics to become the next Premiere of NSW for certain.
Hockey was also asked what the fibs stand for? His reply – RHETORIC! They can’t articulate what they stand for because they don’t even know what they stand for.
So that’s it is it? That’s all you expected that Labor would have achieved in the first 6 months of office, bringing down a budget that would take effect over the NEXT 12 months. Somehow I don’t think that is what the “this government has done nothing” people are referring to.
I would still like to see what E.S.J would have to say if he actually went and read the articles at Larvatus Prodeo by Brian. I doubt he has the stomach for it.
When is Rudd going to appear on Insiders?
Harry and Charles
Interested in your comments on Possum’s excelent analysis. I don’t know why the women’s vote might have chnaged, however I would make another observation – the Labor young vote (18-34) has trended down. I can’t help thinking that the perception that Labor would act cautiously on climate change might hurt here. If as reported Garnaut recommends serius action on Friday and Rudd accepts that it will eb interesting to see if Labor gets a bounce here. I happen to think Labor now has an opportunity to win back voters if they act on climate change, since this is surely one issue that at least some voters chose them on at the last election. Greg Hunt’s sily statement that the coalition might prefer to wait (i.e keep doing nothing) on emissions trading will surely dissillusion the progressive voters.
Well GB, if you cant do the big things in your first year …..
HSO – So? Rudd will win re-election, hardly surprising or painful to me..
Oh for goodness sake, John of Melbourne, that is of no consequence at all. What I want to know is whether or not you have read the articles I have referred to repeatedly on climate change?
John, who cares and why go on a program that is watched by a small politically interested, biased (either way) audience. Other ministers go on representing the government. It is unimportant. He wouldn’t be the first PM to stay away from a program for his own reasons.
Why just the first year Edward? Why not over the first 3 years? Better still let’s really plan carefully for the next 10 years. Now there’s a novel idea. Careful planning instead of, say, deciding to spend 10 billion on a non existent water plan, without cabinet consideration and without treasury input.
HSO I did have a quick read of a couple of pages, thank you.
I ‘m yet to be convinced on climate change. I have read on Andrew Bolt’s site that the climate stopped warming in 1998. What are your thoughts?
Kevin Rudd is still adjusting to being in government. He will recover; he will recapture the momentum; and he will win the next election with an increased majority. The “do nothing tag” has been applied to the Victorian Labor Government for eight years – with the result of two landslide election victories. Why, I just take the dog for a walk if I want to see what Labor has done for my town. If that isn’t enough, I get in the car and drive to the next town. I could even go back to the last school I taught in and look at the new science labs (part of the $1.4 billion capital expenditure on schools in Labor’s first two terms), but I really don’t want to go back there.
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