Mumble reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead dropping from 59-41 to 55-45, with primary votes of 44 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent for Coalition, 10 per cent for Greens and 7 per cent others. More to follow.
Meanwhile, Alexander Downer confirms he will quit parliament to take up a job as United Nations special envoy to Cyprus. Mayo by-election to follow.
UPDATE (2/7/07): Today’s Australian provides further figures on standard of living expectations, which have plunged shockingly – “get worse” being up from 18 per cent to 43 per cent since December. While I’m here, a belated link to yesterday’s graphic.
UPDATE (3/7/07): Newspoll has released its quarterly aggregated poll which provides breakdowns by state, gender and age. It suggests the Rudd honeymoon effect has been especially strong in South Australia and in metropolitan areas, is fading quickest in Victoria, and did not further increase support for Labor in the 18-34 age group. Two of these four are consistent with the result of the Gippsland by-election.
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HSO according to Wikipedia, global warming predictions 2070 – 2100 there may be a 3 degrees centigrade rise if no action is taken on global warming, however on the global climate model page it reports, “… errors in model-mean surface air temperature rarely exceed 1 °C over the oceans and 5 °C over the continents” considering the greatest temperature increase is supposed to be over the continents its a pretty big margin of error.
CC,
Not to mention the opening of the East Link last weekend. Folks, in Melbourne you get queues to line up for a road opening. Two weeks ago 100,000 turned up for an open day on the new freeway.
Project is delivered six months before schedule.
The media reports whingeing from a few recalcitrants.
WTF.
oops forgot the links
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Climate_models
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_climate_model
East Link should have been toll free! Bracks lied.
John of Melbourne,
Eastlink should have been toll-free, but the Liberals promised to do something about it, then promised to have half-tolls, then dumped Robert Doyle and then said they couldn’t do anything about it. Thus, the Eastern suburbs which could have cost Labor 10-12 seats in 2006 couldn’t be bothered doing anything about it. I have never paid a CityLink toll, and I never will, but I look forward to driving on it for free in c30 years. I’ll take a few free trips on Eastlink and then boycott it for the next 3o+ years. If everyone did the same on both roads, tolls would go, as they did on the Westgate donkey’s years ago.
CC good plan but nobody will do it.
GG,
I love the way Liberal supporters are predicting the end of civilisation as we know it just as they did in 1999. That’s why I am confident of two more electoral victories for Kevin Rudd.
Logging off now… good night all
JoM,
You are right there, which is why I am relaxed about so many issues that others get stirred up about.
And good night to you.
CC,
The toll on the Westgate was about 20 cents when they abandoned it. Hardly worth collecting.
John of Melbourne. If you’ve got one curious bone in your body, you will go beyond what Bolt tells you. Unfortunately, he is a clever fool.
And as I’ve said earlier,, you need to read all of it, and go back to read it again, because the information is very dense, and you need to have a mind attuned to scientific information. This may not be something you can do. And that’s not something I would put you down for. Some brains are just wired differently.
So, If you like, and can deal with the oral and visual media, Robyn Williams Science Show and the Philosophers Zone on RN on Saturdays on RN from 12.00 pm are good.
Did you say you’ve moved to the Northern Regions of Melbourne Metro? It’s rather fab. don’t you think?
Concerning comments on Piers Akerman’s one- eyed view of “rogues” in the Labor Party:
Every party has people who behave badly and that is just human nature. Conservatives have had their problems too. Piers may have “forgotten” the Fitzgerald Inquiry that brought the Joh Bjelke Petersen Gov’t under scrutiny in the early 90’s. Two of the ministers of that gov’t were jailed. Joh himself was charged but due to a deadlocked jury there was no verdict. It is fair to say the NP in Qld have never really recovered and have never been able to totally wind back the negative momentum set up at that stage.
Concerning the decline in optimism by people in the last 6 months:
There has been a marked decline in the last 7 months. But rather than been “shocking” news I think it is really the Gov’t getting through to the people that there are some long term issues. If you wait until you have absolute proof that Climate Change is happening then it will be too late for the planet. You will never get absolute proof until then. There are many things in life you must do without the final proof and so it makes sense that some of the really big things will also fall into that category.
On the eve of the Garnaut Report being made public, Rudd is in an excellent position at 55- 45. The dust is settling on the budget, the MSM and Opposition have had their go and only harped on the trivialities. The Gov’t has lost a little, but not much. It is time now for the really difficult issue. The people will decide their future and their children’s future in the nature of their reaction to whatever the Gov’t proposes.
Don’t expect to ever drive on CityLink without paying a toll. The government is happy enough to keep extending Transurbans’ contract, as long as Transurban agree to keep paying for roadworks. The tunnels are going to need major work on them in 30 years, if not sooner, this means a long contract extension once that work is done. Same goes for EastLink, these roads will always require maintenance which the operators will be happy to pay for in exchange for contract extensions.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23965899-5001021,00.html
BELINDA Neal’s political career is over, with the Labor Party refusing to preselect her for the 2010 federal election.
Chiefs at Labor’s Sussex St headquarters have resolved to ensure Ms Neal is blocked from candidacy on the Central Coast seat of Robertson in the wake of the Iguanas-gate scandal.
The New South Wales branch of the Labor Party has denied a newspaper report that it has resolved to block federal MP Belinda Neal from standing again for her seat of Robertson on the state’s central coast.
Mr Bitar says there will be no formal decision about federal preselections until after a boundary redistribution due to take place some time next year.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/04/2294116.htm
So as usual the Terror is wrong.
Speaking of redistributions, the final Queensland decision on the redistribution should be released by the Electoral commission of Queensland today.
There is a white elephant in the Global Warming debate
The cause of Global Warming is over population, apart from using resources, we breath oxygen in and CO2 comes out.
Therefor even if we do not use coal or oil of any sort, CO2 level will continue to climb, so the white elephant question for all the “environmentalist” is, who do we shot first?
TurningWorm @ 314
Don’t expect to ever drive on CityLink without paying a toll.
It’s beyond my understanding how voters anywhere would allow governments to con them into paying to use roads that they’ve already paid through the nose for many times over.
With the amount of money that’s ripped of taxes, excises and duties not only should the roads be free to use, they ought be paved in gold bars!
Fortunately, the one time it was seriously proposed here the government was put back in its box real quick, but it’s a right bugger avoiding toll roads whenever I visit Melbourne.
Neal is toast, if Rudd has anything to do with it!
dovif @ 318 -
so the white elephant question for all the “environmentalist” is, who do we shot first?
Those that ask stupid questions would be high on my list!
dovif
Well I’d go for all the denialist that can’t read scientific papers. But a mile in a car is worth about one human life, so I suggest we get rid of the cars first.
Dovif @ 318; John Howard – TWICE!
Good ‘ol Malcolm up and about making rash statements again this morning re climate change.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23967294-5003402,00.html
The Pineapple Party is going to have a dearth of new talent for years because preselection has been scrubbed to preserve the current members. Brenda doesn’t like change.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23959330-3102,00.html
Dovif
The CO2 breathed out by all life on the planet is greatly exceeded by emissiosn from burning fossil fuels and land clearing. Of course, in an indirect way you are right – more people means more energy use, and that has the main impact. So we do need to stop population growth in the long term. For a clear explanation of CC science, I recommend the downloads at the British Meteorlogical Office:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/
If I might shoot down one more furphy about climate science, it really is quite accurate now. Predicting weather from day to day is uncertain, hence the error rates in the models JOM quoted. But in terms of long term averages it is pretty accurate. They are much more accurate than economic models for example
Also, thanks to all the research in the past ten years, the climate models are now more accurate even for day to day weather forecasts. The three day forecasts now are as reliable as teh daily forecasts in the past. Predicting storm cells (thunderstorms) is still difficult, but your typical 24 hr forecast of maximum/minimum temperature and whether it will rain is accurate within 2 degrees more than 90% of the time.
The hard bit in climate modelling is predicting the future because that also depends on human beings any changes to future human behaviour, because human activity now causes about 70% of net emissions.
Now for something different:
“FACTIONAL warfare within the Liberal Party has erupted over the presidency of the new conservative party to be established in Queensland.
Tensions between Liberal factions mounted as Queensland’s Nationals president Bruce McIver came under pressure to back away from plans to contest the presidency of the new party.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23966380-5006786,00.html
Fancy factional warfare breaking out by Friday when Monday we were told by the Liberal Party bosses that the merger had ‘overwhelming support’.
Will Barnaby, Ron, Paul, Bruce and Warren vote for Brendan as leader? Probably if Malcolm is the alternative.
Another cunning plan Baldrick.
ruawake, can’t wait for the Pineapple Party disease to spread nationally where Clive Palmer will determine who is the PM.
HSO all good I am a mechanical engineer and am accustomed to scientific examination and modelling.
Check this out: http://mclean.ch/climate/IPCC_review_updated_analysis.pdf
Will voters in South East QLD vote for Lawrence Springborg? I think not!
I agree emition from car when used is higher than people, but there are 100x more people than cars, and cars stop emitting when resting and people do not.
It would be interesting to see how much people’s respiration contribute to a % of CO2 into the atmosphere.
People will never be carbon nuetral, maybe all the Greenies can hold their breath, they would be
dovif
With the exception of flatulence people do not breath out CO2. They breathe in air – oxygen is absorbed – then they breathe out the same air less the oxygen.
Progressive, if you looked at the courier mail blog whenever the Pineapple Party get a favourable soft story the hacks cheer in unison. None can name the seats they are going to win but hey, never let facts stand in the way of organised propaganda.
What the National Press Gallery haven’t realised is that if the Queensland Liberals don’t implode at their two days of constitutional conventions on the 26 and 27 July, then the changes begin to sweep through Canberra from the next sittings. All backed and signed off by the Federal Liberals.
Rauwake are you being funny?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respiration_system
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metabolic_waste
334 Don’t be prepared to die in a ditch defending that theory, ruawake.
HCO3 look it up
Although I do see your point, it is no sillier than climate change denialists denying obvious truth.
Ruakwake I looked it up and I don’t get it.
Steve the world hasn’t warmed since 1998
John
90% of CO2 in the body is in the form of bicarbonate – this is excreted through the kidneys not lungs.
340 Steve the world hasn’t warmed since 1998
I won’t be dying in a ditch defending that either. There are obviously more problems with air pollution than warming anyway.
I don’t understand the rush for an emissions trading scheme.
Assume we have a tank that is leaking alleged global warming gases. The tank has 100 holes and each hole represents 1% now Australia emits approximately 1% of alleged global warming gasses and is therefore responsible for one hole in the tank, the rest of the world the other 99 holes. Now Kevin Rudd wants to bring our emissions down 60% so effectively he wants to plug up 60% of the one hole in the tank. Now to do this we all have to suffer alot of pain and ruin our economy yet no matter what we do the other 99 holes in our tank will continue to leak alleged global warming gases. Can someone please explain where is the benefit?
Thanks Ruawake.
John
“Now to do this we all have to suffer alot of pain and ruin our economy…” is not accurate.
Consider a guy who used to make wooden buckets – put out of business by the guy who made metal buckets – who was also put out of business by the guy who makes plastic buckets.
Should we prop up the wood guy, the metal guy or the plastic guy?
“The world hasn’t warmed since 1998″
Bet you get that from Dolt’s blog too. As it happens, it is wrong. Greenland icesheet melting, Arctic melting retreat of glaciers etc wouldn’t be happening at increasing rates if it was true: just a matter of wrong ocean temperature measurements.
What do people think re the MD agreement at COAG yesterday? Looks like Rudd let Brumby gut the agreement of all real effect
Coalition against lifting cap on water trading: yup, more important to save a couple one horse towns than the river system watering our most important food growing areas! Sheesh, that sort of thinking makes me despair of Australia at times!
Re humans breathing out CO2. Sure they do. But that carbon came, ultimately, from plants which use the CO2 to grow and make oxygen. That is part of the natural cycle. The same for methane emissions from cows, these will eventually be fixed by plants.
It is the burning of fossil fuel, and destroying forests which act as carbon sinks, that causes global warming (and freezing if the ‘Atlantic conveyer’ ever stops running.
The Electoral Commission of Queensland has published a list of Public Objections to the propsed distribution.
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/asp/index.asp?pgid=392
as Jovial said, I guess Antarctica and Greenland are just one-offs are they? Hasn’t warmed my ass
349 Dario just a couple of bad air days according to the Boltettes.
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