A new home for another fortnight or so’s worth of top quality US election repartee. I’m only one minor irritation away from pulling the plug on these threads, so please try not to annoy me (annoy each other by all means, but not me).
UPDATE (9/7/2008): After careful reflection, I have decided this will be the final US election thread. It will close for business in a week’s time, at which point American politics will be declared off-topic across the site. Many thanks for your co-operation.
UPDATE: (10/7/2008): New US site open for business. Thanks to Catrina for getting this off the ground.
304 Comments
Early post as no one said when kids are born that you sign up for an all nite taxi service as well A Supreme court question for Obama supporters re Obama’s attitude to consevative Judges appointment Three weeks ago in the Exxon Valdez case the ‘right’ judges plus 1 voted against environment & four Exxon and reduced Exxons damages cost (originally 5 billion awarded in 1996 , then on Exxons appeal was reduced to 2.5 billion in 2006 ) now on Exxons further apeal to 500 million And Obama did not even critisise the ‘right’ judges decision wrongly favouring Exxon in this Supreme court case In the last week the ‘right’ judges voted 5 to 4 opposing a gun ban , and Obama agreed publicly with the ‘right’ judges position A day later , the ‘right’ judges voted 4 to 5 (lost) , the ‘right’ judges wantng to execute a rape offender in a non murder case , and again Obama agreed publicly with those ‘right’ judges position So in all 3 cases Obama has gone with the ‘right’ judges , and against the ‘left’ judges , and against ‘left’ politcal stances After the ilegal wiretapping imunity given to Telcos ‘supported’ in the last 2 weeks , and now these 3 Supreme Court decisions with Obama supporting the ‘right’ judges stance in all 3 as well , I do not see these policy stanses as pre election pragmetism by Obama at all , and I do not see these ‘right’ stances as meaning ‘left’ judges will be necessarily apointed by him either Now its one thing to jest about guillotining Jen or indeed suggest guillotining Catrina over mocking the Amigos over the plane wrong airport fiasco , but surely serious guillotining of Obama by some of his supporters here should occur over th above 4 issues , and instead consider moving to an ambivalent position regarding the election result
This will be interesting to watch – wonder if he can pull it off.
http://www.theage.com.au/us-election-2008/hard-road-awaits-obama-in-south-20080707-34aw.html
Hi Ron-
are you sure about Obama and the exxon findings?
I thought I read (but can’t find it, so i might have dreamt it) that he was critical of the company, if not the finding.
Don’t know about the others , but if you can link it would be interested in reading what he said.
According to recent polls Obama has made huge inroads in red states. The articles I read in 10 red states he is ahead in half and very close in the rest.
Jim Webb has announced that he will not stand as Vice President.
Obama has set a new fundraising record of 55 million dollars. At the same time the 3 levels of the Democratic team according to what I have just read, raked in almost 200 million in 1 month.
Correction in 13 months. An increase of 26% whereas the Repugs dropped 16%. The previous record for a single month was 43 million by John Kerry. With 4 months to go this should be easily smashed again.
Obama puts paid staff into South Carolina. This is the first time the Democrats have put paid staff in this strong red state. This is a brilliant tactical move as far as I am concerned. It will put the fear of god into the Repugs and divert hard earned rescources from other areas.
One hand typing is so slow.
Ronnie, [guillotining of Obama by some of his supporters here] – yes, it will be the fourth great contribution by the French to the American revolution.
1. during the revolutionary against the Poms
2. The statue of liberty
3. The French Fries
4. Now, the guillotining of Obama
btw; you are a good person, keeping Sweetie Catrina company during her 4am one woman yapping.
The youth vote is up about 500% in three counties according to Michael Moores site. Up from around 6.6 thousand to over 40 thousand. I wonder, says he out loud if the black registration is up as well. Could only spell doom for the Repugs.
Chris B @ 10
Mike’s always had a way with stats, so take it with a grain of salt.
He actually quotes his scources on his site. So it should not be taken witha grain of salt. Here it is: Martin, Indian River, St. Lucie counties elections offices.
There is noone else around on this thread, but in the interests of not looking like I am trying to make it my site, I will stay off till tonight.
Another wild ride on Wall Street last night, with the two biggest mortgage holders, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, getting walloped, as it’s revealed just how much capital they need to raise to stay liquid. Ugly, basically.
Just remember, as the US markets retreat into bear territory and the wider economy limps into recession, that Ben Bernanke assured them that, only last August, that the sub-prime kerfuffle, was contained, and not likely to cause any serious problems or bleed into the real economy.
If you’d ever made a public professional statement so wrong, how would you cope with it?
G’day all!
I’ve taken a break lately from the U.S Political debate, I see it’s as crazy as ever in here LOL
Kirribilli: mate, how are you?
As to the serious stuff: I suspect the only Republican Southern state Obama has a chance of winning is Virginia, due to demographic/population changes in the North of the state, which advantage the Democrats.
North Carolina is perhaps a sleeper, if the black vote is mobilised!
Or forget the South, the election could be decided in the Western mountain states?
I note Obama now has leads in New Mexico, Montana and Colorado.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Obama needs to win one of Colorado,Ohio, Virginia to win the election.
If Obama is putting paid staff into South Carolina, it’s a complete waste of money. There’s no way Obama is going to win in South Carolina – it’s still far too conservative. Obama has a shot in NC, but that’s got a far higher “ex-Northern” population and has 3 huge college towns.
What’s more is that there are no interesting Senate/Congressional races in SC – meaning that there are going to be limited opportunities for Obama coattaills in SC.
As for Obama needing to win one of Colorado, Ohio or Virginia – I suspect that’s right. I also suspect that one of these states will fall to Obama in November, given his current leads in all of those states (particularly in Ohio and Colorado). This links in with the first point – Obama should be spending money on consolidating his current leads in these 3 states instead of deadset Red states like South Carolina. After all, it doesn’t make a difference in the electoral college if you lose South Carolina by 2 points or 20 points in November…
Mama, mama, it’s raining again!
Oh, noooooo, sweetheart. That’s Captain America come to save us.
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080707_wee_the_people/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjauAv6I-E8
Be interesting how many show up and IF and HOW it gets “reported” in MSM.
14
Kirribilli Removals Says:
July 8th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Another wild ride on Wall Street….
…
Yes, KR. There seems to be no doubt now that real domestic demand in the US has been slowing dramatically, and having maintained a statistical flatline for a few months, will continue to decelerate. As external demand also continues to abate, the US economy as a whole will almost certainly stay on a contractionary path through the rest of this year and into 2009.
The conjunction of cyclical factors – falling employment, real incomes, asset prices, real final demand – with systemic ones – fractured capital markets, a huge external deficit and a fiscally-crippled federal government, a commitment to unaffordable wars – has launched the US economy into a prolonged and probably very severe contraction.
The thing that is most striking is that it was all completely avoidable. This is the outcome of institutional failure, pure and simple.
Swing Lowe,
While I agree that Obama is very very unlikely to win in Southe Carolina, putting money into that state is not just a zero sume equation – it could be useful for many reasons.
First, Obama running throughout the South confuses Republican strategy while not necessarily detracting from his central midwestern strategy. If we are working on the assumption that the Obama campaign alone (not counting union or interest money) will have between 300 and 400 million to spend in 4 months, spending some of this in Southern states will not harm his ability to spend like a drunken sailor in others. Time and money in SC does not mean no time and money in Ohio or Virginia. Further, it diverts Republican focus – they are operating with far less resources – reinforces the 50 state democratic theme, and builds organisations possibly useful in future elections.
Second, the Childers win in the recent special election came out of the blue to an extent, and indicates that the Dems can win in the South. While no SC seats are on their 38 top hit list, there is no reason to abandon the state at this stage. Down ticket morale and having some support for prospective Congressional staff, who organise independently of the Presidential campaign while reinforcing it, are useful in themselves. In the same way that Virginia has slowly become a place that is now competitative for the Dems, other Southern states might be in the future with a longer term view. And again, Obama’s resource advantage does not mean that other states miss out by playing a little in SC.
Looks like the reall issue of the election (The economy) is about to become centre stage for both candidates. I suspect that who provides the most convincing case on this issue will go on to victory is November.
As this quote from NYT says,” Both candidates plan to spend this week focusing almost entirely on the economy. But both face political problems with the issue.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/07/us/politics/07memo.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
Pancho,
A couple of points. First, I never said spending money on SC means no spending in CO or VA. I said (and I’ll say again) spending money on SC means LESS spending in CO or VA (and other more winnable states such as NC). Obama should be focusing on states that he actually has a chance of winning in November – at the moment, Intrade is saying that Obama has as much chance of winning SC as he does of winning Kansas – a state that almost everyone agrees will go to McCain this November (unless Obama picks Sebelius).
Second, I don’t agree with “if Obama spends money somewhere, so does McCain”. If I was the McCain camp, I wouldn’t spend a dime in SC – I’d let Obama spend his money and I’d concentrate on playing defence in states like VA and CO (as well as perhaps going on offense in MI and NH). McCain (and presumably Obama) knows that Obama could outspend McCain 20-1 in SC and still lose – it’s too conservative and too red to vote for a Chicago-based liberal in a presidential election.
In regards to SC congressional races – there are 4 Republican house seats (and 2 Dems) and 1 Republican senator up for election this year. In all the GOP house seats, there are incumbents running, meaning the potential for MS-01 upset occurring is low. Sen. Graham is also unlikely to face much of a threat in the Senate either. As such, I don’t believe that Obama spending money in SC is going to have any significant (as in, forcing a seat to switch hands) impact in the congressional races either….
GG
I think most voters know the POTUS can’t change an economic tsunami. The voters will probably settle for believing that the candidate cares about the pain they’re going through. McCain has a tough sell on that with a multimillionaire inheritance wife and policies the same as Bush II who got them there. Obama clearly doesn’t connect with the small town voters who think he’s an elitist who looks down on them.
SL – that’s all fair, but I don’t accept that ’spending money on SC means LESS spending in CO or VA’.
3-400 million to spend gives Obama an amount which historically dwarfs anything any candidate has had in previous elections. The GOP is claiming that “For Obama to set up a $2 million operation in S.C. would be a bad business decision,” not a bad tactical decision. 2 out of 400 is nothing – it is accepted that Obama has an almost bottomless barrel, and this still leaves him with three times the amount of cash McCain will have. There is no way that the likes of Plouffe would allow spending in SC which would compromise spending in VA.
When you think about it, Hillary must be so pi$$ed off at the moment.
If there was one thing Bill could point to as POTUS, it was turning around a huge deficit and getting the country up and running after Reagan/Bush I. She would have the perfect speech for the economy; Bill and I have rescued America before from disastrous Repug economic management and we’ll do it again.
And the little guys actually believe she cares about them.
The old “Double Talk Express” just keeps chuggin along….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyJGl_l_6E4
and a neat, if brief summary of the candidates’ respective economic plans from Associated Press…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDKg7eq4Fk8&feature=related
Looks to me like McCain is wedded to Bushonomics.
Not a good look.
Pancho
I read that Kerry still had $15M unspent in the bank at the end of his campaign. But he was trying to lose.
I would say a lot of the planning going into the Dems 50 state strategy with all this Obama money isn’t just about this election.
As others have said, all he really needs is to win Ohio,Colorado or Virginia and the other states he almost def will win.
But by organizing operations in all states they also have their eye on all important elections in 2010 . Re-districting occurs in 2010 after the 2010 census. Gubernatorial elections in 2010 will have a big say on how this re-districting occurs.
If the Dems have good organization and run the right candidates they can compete. The groundwork is being done now with the massive amounts of money Obama’s candidacy has raised.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/07/gop-looks-to-redistrict-i_n_110632.html
I’ve always hated Crocs (ugly rubber shoes)- looks like McCain might too now.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/trailhead/
Ok. That’s enough visitors. I’ll come back a fraction earlier than I said. But only put a bit on at a time. I have been working feverishly
19 Swing Lowe says .” If Obama is putting paid staff into South Carolina, it’s a complete waste of money. There’s no way Obama is going to win in South Carolina – it’s still far too conservative”.
Chris suggests: to show you that South Carolina is well within striking distance, here is a link to the Votemaster http://www.electoral-vote.com it has turned from bright red to pink which is only 9%. Here is a link to the demographics of the African American vote. http://216.55.182.132/FairData/Historical/map.asp?command=scope&map=0 The African American’s vote over 90% for Democrat. If North Carolina is a potential winner then so is South Carolina. Here is a link to the Demographics of the Latino vote, although South Carolinas Latinos aren’t many as in Texas. The Latino vote is running at 60% as seen on my link. http://nmindependent.mypublicsquare.com/view/swinging-for-latino Advertising in most southern states is dirt cheap. At the rate Obama is raking in the money he will soon break the 100 million barrier in one month. That is more than the Repugs are allowed to spend in the whole campaign. A little bit in South Carolina won’t go astray, to help create panic in the Repugs camp. If I were the Repugs and saw the Votemaster map, I would be very, very worried.
24 Swing Lowe Very interesting point, what if in not spending money in South Carolina and Georgia he loses them and wins the ones you suggest? Plus a couple of other states. In doing so, loses the election. Oh the irony.
Oh. Am I allowed to cut and paste from my word articles?
Just kidding
http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/obamas-convention-spectacular/2008/07/08/1215282809600.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
The article basically outlines the delivery of Obama’s speech is going to do at the convention.
What is interesting is at the bottom where it says that the announcement of the convention speech is designed to take oxygen out of the Republic campaign NOW.
The thought of Obama speaking publicly distracts people from McCain’s campaign? Amazing if true.
Chris B @ 32,
If Obama wins VA, CO and NC, there is no conceivable way he could lose the election – and if he did, he wouldn’t be disappointed about losing SC and GA, he would be disappointed about losing (presumably) MI, OH and NH (and maybe PA).
Of course, I find it extremely unlikely that Obama would lose Michigan and New Hampshire and still win Virginia, Colorado and North Carolina.
Second, “If North Carolina is a potential winner then so is South Carolina.” – What rubbish! On Electoral Vote, Obama is down by 2 in NC but down by 9 in SC. On Fivethirtyeight, Obama is given a 28% chance of winning in NC but only a 10% chance of winning in SC (he has the same chance of winning Kansas). Finally, on Intrade, he as a 14% chance of winning SC, but a 25% chance of winning NC.
As I said before, NC has more going for it than SC (much more). It’s got more “transplanted” Yankees and it has 3 huge college towns. SC has lots of military bases (not good), is historically known as being the most conservative state in the union (although UT may be challenging that now) and has no significant urban areas to speak of (unlike NC, which has Durham, Greensboro, Raleigh and Charlotte). So whilst Obama has a shot of winning in NC (although it’s still fairly low there), he has even less of a shot of winning in SC – in fact, I am willing to predict that Obama has no chance of winning South Carolina unless John McCain has his own ‘Macaca’ moment (and even then it would still be doubtful…)
EsJ @ 18: You could well be right. And Fivethirtyeight in its poll analysis ranks him as a 65% chance of winning Colorado. With the post-Convention bounce to come, and the GOP’s tried-and-true ‘too liberal, too extreme’ campaign strategy likely to cut little slack there (for whatever reason, mountain state/SW Dems and inds like their Dems liberal), I’d firmly back him to win it. Or to put it another way (that should keep everyone unhappy): Obama has about as much chance of winning Colorado as he does of losing Florida.
SL @ 24: The only rational McC response is (if his finances are as everyone says) to put in a token effort there, without actually spending any money. Provided he doesn’t get a ‘McCain doesn’t care about SC’ backlash going, he should still win it.
But that doesn’t make O’s ‘50 states’ strategy (which of course is really a ‘35 to 40 states’ strategy) wrong. By forcing McCain to jump to defend a bunch of states that he wouldn’t want to think about (e.g. North Dakota, Alaska) O stretches McC personally as well as financially (can’t afford to spend much time there, but can’t afford to be snubbing the voters). It helps create a narrative that O is controlling the campaign, and all McC can do is try to parry each move. Bob Dole had an ‘inevitable loser’ tarnish from early in the 1996 campaign– you can argue this brush doesn’t persuade many voters to change sides, but it does depress fundraising and turnout for your side.
With Iowa near enough to in the bag as a crossover, McC should know he can’t just play defence with the other 279 Bush EC votes. New Mexico is looking increasingly bad for him, which would have him down to 274. Way too close to the line. New Hampshire is his best bet demographically for a pick-up but probably too small (4 votes) to hold the dam by itself. He has to go hard after some big wins: like Wisconsin (currently 538-rated a 13% win chance for him), Pennsylvania (21%), Michigan (35%). The current numbers aren’t encouraging– but perhaps the bigger problem is that McCain isn’t a ‘rust belt’ friendly candidate. He’s long, strong and proud against the protectionism that plays well there. Nor can he play the ‘working class hero’ line.
How will McCain’s campaign try to market him as the candidate of the rust belt? That will be one of the big challenges of trying to manufacture a win from a pretty tough position.
Well, given Jen’s article @ 31 it doesn’t look like they’re interested in playing the protectionist line. More likely, they’ll push the market mantra and i guess hope that the ‘market will fix it’ concept will be bought. To be honest, i’d be fascinated to see if it works – it would be interesting test of the pervasiveness of neo-liberal economics.
Larest from CBet:
OBAMA, Barack………….1.48
MCCAIN, John……………3.10
Tues July 8:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tonyauth;_ylt=AvVnu5QMZ1sVrgGIhtUnXjIV2r8F
Tues July 8:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/doonesbury;_ylt=Al2.j9tQ7ZmExGQiFi5zziDb.sgF
Tues July 8:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/ettahulme;_ylt=A0WTUfLl9XJIolcA_B5S_b4F
———————-
Fivethityeight give Obi three fifths of five eighths of SFA chance (10% actually) of winning SC. Tend to agree.
McCain can partially solve his rust-belt woes by picking either Romney or Huckabee as his VP. Romney’s father was Governor of Michigan and a state he won comfortably in the primaries. He may have some influence in nearby states (although that’s probably unlikely). Romney may also help in New Hampshire – although that may also be fairly minimal.
With respect to Huckabee, his economic theory is base populism in its strongest form – his economic views are closer to John Edwards than John McCain. That will (hopefully for McCain) play well in the rust belt as well as in the south – although this in itself will create difficulties for McCain, as he would be effectively repudiating his long-held economic views if he chooses to endorse Huckabee’s economic policies.
I know a lady in North Carolina who’s working for Obama, she thinks they have a chance of winning the state if they get a high turnout of blacks and young people, especially new voters!
GG is right, the economy will be a main issue!
Has anyone thought that part of the Obama campaign tactics of playing hard in places like the Carolinas,Georgia and even Colorado(which Obama WILL win) is about keeping Romney off the McCain ticket?
Romney brings money,someone who can cover for McCains deplorable economic cred,locks up potential troublesome Conservatives and importantly brings a chance(albeit slim) at competing in Michigan and maybe neighbouring states.
But by picking Romney,McCain would deeply harm himself with evangelicals, who despise his Mormonism.
Hence Obama’s push for evangelicals consideration and pushes into evangelical heartlands like S Carolina,Georgia,Colorado, Nevada.
To keep Romney off the ticket.
With the amount of money Obama has he can control agendas all the way to Nov. Everything he does with that money is not all about winning a particular State.
Although in the end, if things go right, he “could” landslide into a lot of unheard of States.
Diogenes @ 25,
Roosevelt came from an enormously rich family and seemed to do alright with the average punter. Rudds’ another example here in Australia. So the personal wealth bit doesn’t necessarily flow through to uncaring insensitive outlooks by particular politicians.
I agree that the electorate has a choice between market driven solutions of the Republicans wth a dose of tax cuts, and the social interventionist policies of the Democrats.
The state of the economy and the person with the most appealing/credible plan for the future will decide this election.
Interesting hypothesis Harry. Perhaps the Dems feel that if the Republican ticket has two people on it who hate each other more than the extremes of the Republican party despise their opposite, there will be (more) unity on the Right.
Given the way that McCain’s finances appear to be structured – with huge amounts of money in the RNC and travelling through third parties with less stringent donations requirements – having moneybags on board, even with the Mormonism, would seem a pretty astute move.
35 Swing Lowe I think everything within 10% is on the cards. Only time will tell.
There is a multi million dollar advertising campaign, put together by the Latino community going to air, in a drive to get Latino’s to register. This is a direct result of the nasty campaign run last year. As a direct result the Latinos have a very high interest in the outcome of this election. No trouble guessing who they will be voting for.
Obamas campaign shifting to the mile high stadium (I wonder if you can join the mile high club). Just couldn’t resist that one. For a good picture of the stadium click on my link provided. Instead of orange balloons, imagine thousands of blue and white balloons.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/08/us/politics/08convention.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Money has won it in the past for the Repugs. So it’s time for money to start talking for the Democrats.
Sorry if thats confusing that’s 3 seperate articles.
23 Greensborough Growler says:” I suspect that who provides the most convincing case on this issue will go on to victory is November”.
Chris says: I couldn’t agree with you more. Maybe Obama’s advertising campaign will drive the economy. It’s a joke Joyce
Romney on the ticket would be great. The Obama campaign could save money (not that they need to) simply by circulating Romney’s attack ads against McCain from the primary race.
Also, a McCain / Romney ticket would attract the nickname “Flip and Flop.”
Harry,
I’m not convinced that Romney could cover the economic holes in McCain’s campaign. Granted, he is percieved as stronger than McCain on the economy, but he’s a terrible communicator and I think it would be easy to poke holes in him.
Do you really think that Obama would be that keen to keep Romney off the ticket? As you yourself said, evangelicals don’t really like Romney.
If McCain wants to energise the base, he’d be better off with Gomer Pyle (aka Huckabee).
McCain looks to be trying to sove his money woes inother ways….
http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/07/07/for-mccain-money-talks.aspx
Harry H & Pancho,
There is no doubt a VP with economic grunt will enhance McCain’s ticket. Romney could be a good choice. The other one is Bloomberg.
GG
I agree McCain has to get help on economic cred. It is by far the No.1 issue. McCain is a dud candidate for that very reason. For all Romneys faults(and there are many)Romney is McCains best bet for competing in Nov. Rob Portman(from Ohio) is another choice but he is too tied to Bush.
But whatever the Repugs do their base is now incredibly split. So split that a lot no longer call themselves Republican. They are somewhere down between 29% to 34% in identification. Dems are in the low 40’s.
Bloomberg is a big NO WAY for VP. Skeletons galore apparently. Apart from ideology as well.
47 Optimist Whatever McCain does, Obama can do better with his billionaire friends through MoveOn.org. With the likes of Warren Buffet the richest man in the world. George Sorros and maybe Bill Gates. The first two give to Bill Gates foundation, so I suspect (guess) his politics is the same.
In a hypothetical world where I was a bookmaker, I’d be offering 50-1 for Bloomberg to join the McCain ticket.
GG, if you’d care to join me in this universe, what odds would you be offering for a straight bet on either candidate/party at this stage?
I’m a bit at a loss over the Obama VP pick – I was certain Webb was the frontrunner – Needless to say, I was wrong.
I’m thinking maybe Biden (although I can see Obama bin Biden jokes on the horizon), or perhaps Wes Clarke.
Despite the general ickiness of agreeing with James Carville, Gore would be make for an unbeatable ticket in my opinion.
Obama is ahead in Miami Dade by 12%. The bad news for the Repugs is he is underperforming in the Latino vote, so there is plenty of room for improvement.
http://cbs4.com/defedecolumn/defede.column.obama.2.765569.html
Chris B,
I’ve linked to this before, but if you wanna have a look at the political donations of celebs, prominent business figures etc….
http://www.newsmeat.com/
Again, I’m terribly sad that Klinger from MASH is a republicn.
Chris B,
There are very few Latinos in South Carolina (just over 3% of the population). So any bounce in support Obama gets amongst Hispanics will have a very limited effect in SC.
What Obama needs in SC is white votes (almost 70% of the population). Assuming 90% of African Americans vote for Obama in SC, he’s going to need approximately 35% of the white vote to win the state – an extremely difficult task given that Kerry only got 22% of the white vote in 2004 (and that was with a South Carolina-born VP on the Democratic ticket.
Chris B,
There has been recent speculation that Bill Gates may become John McCain’s VP pick. So it’s more likely he’s going to be donating his money to the GOP this year than Obama…
Thanks for that Optimist.
Have a look at this
Subliminal message on Fox News.
Fox News is putting on subliminal messages in their logo. You can see flashes of McCain’s picture in their news service.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=OSAOQuLxSdY&feature=related
55 Swing Lowe. Spot on, the black population is very high though.
56 Swing Lowe He actually cracked a joke at his retirement saying Obama is looking for a VP. So your guess is as good as mine.
Chris B,
creeeeepppy.
Pancho,
You must know from previous posts that I don’t bet on things that talk.
However, I still think this election is far too close to call. Obama has not got a strong bounce from securing the nomination. Polls will start to mean something around early September. But, Obama is in front atm.
Bloomberg may or may not have personal failings, but who hasn’t. My point is to look at candidates for Republican VP that have strong economic credentials. This could be an election where the electorate are prepared to vote for tough medicine to sort out the economic problems. This would be a problem for Obama.
Have a look at this picture in the New York Times and see how few people are at this meeting in Denver Colorado. Maybe 2 to 300 people at the most. If people are going to suggest that they might be out of the cameras angle, wouldn’t you show the crowd in your camera shot? If that is the case about the camera angle, then I suggest that the Repug organizers are dumb.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/08/us/politics/08econ.html
They should have the best angle for the crowd, or have they already? I have been to political meeting here with a better rollup. For example Bob Hawke in Montrose Victoria. Montrose was not more a country town on an outer part of Melbourne when that happened.
Mon July 7:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AjIQxbVS8M51vTKRnpUlLHXd.sgF
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55845
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55828
————
The Mittster is hot favourite for the GOPper Veep nominee with the bagmen.
Romney, M……..5
Daylight to Rest of Field:
Pawlenty, T…… 14…..(Timmeh)
Jindal, B………. 16….. (The Exorcist)
Ridge, T………. 16……(Tommy the Tyke)
Crist, C……….. 18……(Chuckie)
Huckabee, M…..20……(Mixta)
Lieberman, J…. 20….. (Schmuckens)
(Ladbrokes/Paddy Power)
Swing Lowe,
I don’t think you’ve made a logical conclusion there at #56.
If we’re going to speculate, surely it would be more sensible to look at the issues that Gates is concerned with and see how the respective parties stack up on them.
The Gates’ Foundations commitment to education issues would suggest to me that they are more likely to be Obama suppoters….but as i said, it’s all just speculation.
The Gates idea wasn’t really speculation – it came out of a politico.com survey of insiders that asked for their most unconventional, but potentially viable VP picks – a game of fantasy really.
23
Greensborough Growler Says:
July 8th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
“Looks like the reall issue of the election (The economy) ”
…I just hate to say it Gruffy, but I did tell you this, about 6 months ago! LOL
Good to see you’ve caught up, now, do pay attention!
GG,
the bounce you mention at #60 traditionally comes out of the Convention, where he’ll officially be declared the candidate.
15
Progressive
Like sh!t to tell you the truth Prog, but it passes, and I have my periods of being OK.
Still, mustn’t grumble.
21
blindoptimist
yeah, failures that go back through Clinton’s presidency and to Bush Snr and a bit beyond.
It is truly a catastrophic ‘perfect storm’ and to see crude prices whacking them over the head for their imbecilic addiction and gluttony is one hell of an irony, eh?
All those petro dollars now on the prowl to buy their distressed assets or lend to them at crippling rates.
In a decade you won’t recognize America, it sure a hell won’t be the Star Ship Enterprise of our youth, the unrivaled superpower, confident and assertive. The chill winds have just begun, but they’re going to blow for quite some time.
Pundit Man sez…..(Growls at 60):
“This could be an election where the electorate are prepared to vote for tough medicine to sort out the economic problems. This would be a problem for Obama.”
That’d be right, Horse. Americans are yearning for a fiscally responsible and safe pair of GOPper hands on the tiller after eight years of another GOPper Imbecile who has run the Sep Economy into the ground. Obi must be fair shitting his britches at the prospect. You’re wasting your astute powers of analysis and valuable time on mugs like us. Can’t believe why Fox havn’t snapped a Hemingwayesque talent like your good self up by now. After the 400 big ones Fox recently forked out for a motormouth like Rush, they could have got you for chump change if they’d only known.
Ec,
did you like my little Strother Martin reference back at ya last night? Gave me a wee giggle, but then again, I’m easily amused at myself.
Oppy, your reference, “failure to communicate”, was from Cool Hand Luke which is an excellent movie but not relevant to the point being made.
Strother Martin in “The Streetfighter” plays a completely different role altogether. One was a vicious control freak(CHL) the other a beautiful loser (The Streetfighter).
Check it out and do let me know what traits you can relate to in the James Coburn character. Ron picked up on it.
EC,
sheesh….I don’t wanna get into a whole thing over this. It was just a cute remark as the “Cool Hand Luke” quote related to the broader problem of getting clarity with William – I’m aware that the two characters are different, just thought it was mildly clever as Strother Martin delivered the line in Cool Hand Luke.
I think I’ve overestimated your capacity for whimsy.
My mistake.
I’ll be sure to let you know when I’ve rented Street Fighter and learned the lesson (rolling my eyes.)
Ron @ 1
I can assure you I have already moved into the “ambivalent about the outcome” mindset. I have a feeling the “can’t give a sh!t” phase is not far off. At this rate, Obama will be asking Scalia to be his running mate soon .
Diog, “can’t give a sh!t” – ditto. i tried, i tried and tried but it gets hollower and hollower each day. it’s a pity really.
Diogs and Finns-
are you really saying that come Novemeber you won’t care whether the REpublicans are back in power in the US?
Don’t believe you – you are both way too passionate about issues for that. However, perhaps theere is an element of US election fatigue sneaking in. i suspect William is a definite sufferer.
KR,
You old salt. I have actually called the economy as the major issue many months ago. While I don’t wan’t to get into a posing contest, the record will back me up. Where you and I differ (considerably) is that I see this as something the US will sail through over a couple of years. You on the other hand have always promoted the Armegheddon Effect, where this recession is the big one that’ll send the US to the poor pits. Don’t agree. It’s all about degrees I suppose.
Cheers.
Growler -
I’d prefer your scenario to Kirri’s but honestly, it looks pretty grim doesn’t it?
Kirri – hope you’re hanging in there . Glad to see you on board.
For the psephies, here’s a debate. From EV.
“Scott Rasmussen picked up a hot potato yesterday, the question of whether to normalize polling for partisan identification. Here’s what that means in plain English. Rasmussen’s polls of party identification have shown that averaged over the past few months about 9% more people call themselves Democrats than Republicans. Suppose he runs a poll of 1000 people and by chance gets 500 Democrats and 500 Republicans when he knows that among 1000 voters he should be getting 545 Democrats and 455 Republicans. One option is just to go with the raw data (i.e., not normalize it). The other one is to force the sample to be weighted to the Democrats by 9% by either calling more people and discarding Republicans until the right balance is achieved or by weighting each Democrat called as 1.045 and each Republican as 0.945. Pollsters differ vigorously on whether they should force the sample to conform to a particular partisan model and if so, which one. Gallup was widely criticized by other pollsters last time around for normalizing to a model that contained many more Republicans than they believed was justified by their data.
Here is Rasmussens justification.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/the_value_of_party_weighting_for_a_tracking_poll
GG & KR, i disagree. i dont think the economy will be the biggest issue of the POTUS election.
Everyone knows that the POTUS, Congress, Senate etc are beholden to business, especially big business. i dont think anything will change regardless who gets elected. They decide, not POTUS.
Obama stormed in with big promises for new politics and new Washington that is not hostaged to any special interest groups and business. Well, post primaries, he is no difference. The same old leopard with the same old spots.
Take Iraq, he started by calling all out by March 2008, then all out by July 2010 (16 months after assuming office). Now, it depends, depends and depends. One might be cynical and say this has nothing to do with oil concessions that the Iraqi are now divvy out. The spoils of War for the big boys. No US POTUS would dare to withdraw any significant troops from Iraq that would jeopardize the oil concessions. The troops are needed to protect these oil interests. Especially Pres. Obama, the grassy knoll can be arranged.
Anyway, US POTUS election has never been about policies. It’s more about personality. Someone the US voters like, feel comfortable and safe as their CIC. Aye, aye Sir.
Finns, when you say you tried and tried and tried to like Obama, was this before or after you listed every single right wing smear against him on here, from wright-gate to granny-gate to race-card-gate to all-under-the-bus-gate?
Come on pal, you never liked the guy.
By the way, Obama’s Iraq policy has always been to withdraw 1 to 2 brigades per month until most were out over 16 months. In spite of the excitement and rage over several recent statements, none of them contradict this policy.
Pancho, believe me, i did, i did and i did.
Sun July 6: But don’t worry, Beijing air is a fresh as it was in Queenstown, Tassie in its heyday:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=Ajy6WwKv_2O8jyRKP3iLDqxX_b4F
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Queenstown_moonscape_1984.jpg
“And who’s gonna tell the children
How the rivers used to flow cystal blue
And we keep leaving scars on Mother Earth
And moving closer to the truth
T.J. White
—————————-
“I’ll be sure to let you know when I’ve rented Street Fighter and learned the lesson (rolling my eyes.)”
Not a lesson, Oppy, merely an observation. I LIKE toey little smart-arses, used to be one myself:) And as we’re being tangentially didactic here,
*rolls eyes* , has greater impact. Do excuse me now, I’m back off to save The Universe.
http://superherouniverse.com/superheroes/marvel/captainamerica/images/Captain-America.jpg
Meh!
75
Greeensborough Growler
It’s a matter of time-frame mostly Gruffy, but this year’s spectacular implosion of credit and mortgage markets was looking pretty certain before the words to the opposite effect came tumbling from Ben Bernanke’s lips.
In the long term the US is on a slow and slippery ride to another economic level of snakes and ladders, one were they will not be borrowing the world’s spare capital to p!ss up against the wall like there’s no tomorrow (or, there simply will not be any ‘tomorrow’ worth getting p!ssed for! LOL)
A mountain of unfunded social security liabilities awaits them over the coming decades, and these are in tsunami proportions. They simply can’t pay them, full stop, as they’ve been raiding the cookie jar for yonks just to keep the idiotic pretence that they don’t need to use taxation properly.
It is a sick economy now, but it’s got some longer term terminal contradictions already raging away.
76
Hi Jen, thanks, feeling moderately crappy actually, but the worst lasts a few days, until the cumulative effect hits in a few weeks. (I’ve been warned by many about this, so I’m taking it very seriously!) Then it becomes a whole new ballgame as you try to survive the treatment! LOL
I”m holding up for now, and thanks to everyone for their concern.
Now, pass the popcorn…
….oh, that’s right, it ain’t for months! Oh well, we can just plug on until Obama’s elected I suppose! LOL
Praise where it’s due (if slightly off topic), but Bernard Keane’s first sentence in Crikey today is a bloody cracker:
“And so it came to pass that John Howard turned out to be the high water mark — pun intended — of the Coalition’s willingness to address global warming.”
…and the rest is worth reading too.
This debate is really ‘warming up’ (pun intended), but it will be very interesting to see how Obama handles the volte face they need to execute in the land of the shrinking SUV.
William, I like your taste in music, are you going to take requests? The real thing. Note digital radio starts next year. Better quality, record pause and play back. Auto tune of th radio stations. No getting in a renta car and not being able to find the local stations or go on a trip to the country an not find stations. The stations name will be diplayed along with the song name and musicians. But all that is a bit off topic.
Sorry about my two links to the NY times above folks, I didn’t realise that they would do that. It worked fine before I posted.
‘I’m back off to save The Universe’
You cann’t do that , the galactic rules the heavans above the Towers ,
barbarian sin is the motto but all who feast in wines & other wickeds are welcome
The Panche
“By the way, Obama’s Iraq policy has always been to withdraw 1 to 2 brigades per month until MOST ..were out over 16 months ”
Whats the missing word after ‘most’ Murali ? , what is th US military branch of the troops that will be left behind , how many , for how lonfg , for what purpose , and info sourse
50 state strtegy ? think thats 50 plus DC , DNC Dean had this briht idea , our Partys have 150 electorare strtegy for the 150 electorates also , nice headline but no politcal reality there Dems hold 19 plus DC , min 1 needed is Ohio makes potus Politicans waste our money with gay abandon , but not there campaign mullah , thats treated with reel special care And , those confederate flags mean Jefferson Davis the past president still rules against the Dems NE liberals , except four the 2 N coastal tragacs demos changing And as for the the WV breakaway & numerous other states as well just are red as red , token pennies for the faithful The Obama campaign man says the 50 with such straight faces So we have 10 holes in the bucket mr McCain , & 5 more to play with either as bonus four the knowing or as insurance for the jiterbugs
FINNS , to save time , one could take the noughts & crosses approch List every losing POTUS from WW2 & ask was he any good anyway , and did the voters get it right especialy without hindsiht benefit (except for the chads voters)
Just go to Obama’s website to join in:
The Democratic National Committee and Barack Obama’s presidential campaign will hold meetings in all 50 states to get voters more involved in developing the party platform.
Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano will chair the Platform Drafting Committee, the DNC and the Obama campaign were scheduled to announce Tuesday. The committee will invite members of the public to attend meetings around the country, with policy experts and other Democratic officials on hand to answer questions.
Salon
…a bit like Ruddy’s travelling Willberries …er, cabinet, isn’t it?
Those grass roots. This could even be construed as democracy if he’s not careful.
ok, here’s a poll I’ll bet you never dreamed of: US pet owners go for McCain (and not because he’s the underdog…tish, boom!)
It’s for real:
An AP-Yahoo News poll found that pet owners favor McCain over Obama 42 percent to 37 percent, with dog owners particularly in McCain’s corner.
Salon
…and the whole thing is funny with breakdowns for blacks/whites and dog and cat owners.
Who said US politics was infantile????
dogs can eat bull but not fluff
A warning to the Dems. dont be too over confident:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lincoln-mitchell/three-mistakes-the-democr_b_111317.html
dogs don’t vote
93 The Finnigans Wouldn’t mind betting some independant organisation runs some late ads stiring up McCains foes in the religious groups.
You know the anyone but McCain mob.
Webb balked at VP when they asked to do a background check.
blindoptimist
This will amuse you, for colossal understatement and that certain “d’oh!” factor:
“The Federal Reserve’s job is not only to tend to macro economic conditions, it must also ensure the integrity of borrowing and lending,” said Lacy Hunt, a former Fed economist who is now the chief economist at Hoisington Investment Management. “The regulatory process obviously broke down in a massive way; and one can’t help but wonder whether we should have had more actual bankers on the board.”
…what? Real actual bankers on the Federal Reserve Board, as it’s constituent parts are actual Reserve Banks you’d have to wonder why this hasn’t occured to anyone previously?
Maybe because the unholy alliance of the FR being Wall Street’s b!tch for so long, that they abrogated nearly all oversight to the Harvard mathematicians (AKA ‘the smartest guys in the room’) until the inmates were literally running not just the asylum, but the entire friggin’ economy!
More ‘real bankers’ on the Reserve? Who’d have thought of such a thing????LOL
I’ve got a funny feeling Obama will ask Edwards to be his running mate!
The DNC Dean 50 state aproach is really spin Take the state of Utah as example , Obama is behind by 24% , Kerry lost it by 45% , Kerry lost it by 40% , Billy in 1996 lost it by 21% , Billy in 1992 lost it by 18% And Utah is part of this 50 state strtegy with Obama meetings set up , just show & token moneys , and mcCain will not fall for it , and neither Mccain or the Team Obama will wast real money their or in other safe red ones Mccains problem is he has to win almost all 15 vunarable states to win & Obama only a relatively few of thems & will outspend him in all & force him to spend his limited resourcess in all of them
FINNS , if i was Mccain , i’d blame the Dems Congrss control they’ve had since 2006 & the budgets , and demand why Dems didn’t put up bills to regulate etc the economy & the now out of control fincial markets seeing the Dems had Congrss , Mccain can say its all the Dems fawlt (of course leaving out the war costs & that Bush wouldn’t like them regulations etc bills anyway) If i was Obama i’d show the US econ stats when Dems Billy was their in 98 & 99 vs Repug Bush 2006 & 2007 Runing the economy may come down to both a blam game and ‘who do you trust ‘to fix it , maybe more mullah will or will not count
Obama in Israel 22nd or 23rd
He will be doing a Ronald Regan type “speech in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, the site of a famous Ronald Reagan speech in 1987 in which the former president challenged then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to “tear down that wall.”
Obama will be in Paris 25th of July
102
Crikey, can you imagine him doing one in front of Sharon’s Ghettogate?
That’d play well back at Neocon central! LOL
Diogenoski
gallactic tickets in blogoshere mail
Obama in Paris,
ooohh look out for the Fox News Obama loves the French attack!
Still thinking that the biggest consideration in the VP stakes is gonna be Foreign Policy / Military issues.
Wes Clark or Joe Biden….maybe Bill Richardson.
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind…..
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55855
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55869
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55867
From now on, all discussion about moderation gets deleted. Thank you.
Warning: Bludgers are advised to continue only if willing to endure severe PUNishment!
Or maybe she won’t…..
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55895
latte breaking economic news
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55906
Bean there, done that………………………*sorry*
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55907
Bit quiet tonight then, eh?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgIB9XRaj0E
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55876
Vehicle awaiting installation of EV engine.
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55896
Flotilla of Frisco Cigars to Honour Imbecile:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5guVNwXOYPWIxthNRethGxGUK6rxQD91P9GNG0
KR @ 97….Yes, the FR has handed the keys to the safe to the burglars. Unbeleivable, really. And I also agree, the policy failings have a long pedigree – going back to Bush 1 and Clinton.
By the way, I’ve been hearing some disturbing anecdotal reports from China: consumer spending has started to contract and property values have tumbled substantially in the boom provinces of the south-east. The residential market in Guangzhou is reportedly down 25% this year and similar falls have been experienced in Fujian. Even Shanghai has supposedly been feeling the chill. If true, this would presage trouble in the Chinese banking sector and for the wider economy. The Chinese economy has certainly been red hot in the last few years and the government has been trying to slow things down. Maybe they are due for an old-fashioned industrial-style “cyclical correction”.
Oh our Nic, what were you thinking!! Sunday Roast? Somebody gave Tom Cruise for that.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/08/nicole-kidmans-baby-name_n_111458.html
#110 Somebody gave up Tom Cruise for that
Finns, it indeed seems unfortunate that a child has initials that will have them called ’sucker’, ‘all day sucker’ etc for the rest of their life.
btw; i think it was our Naomi who gave up tom cruise for the sunday roast
Another Virginia Democrat knocks back the VP spot for Obama:
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/07/08/virginias-warner-saying-no-to-obama-vp-spot/
Another Supreme Court decision where Obama has sided with the ‘right’ Supreme Court Judges This matter was posted by amigo FINNS the other day , an further data follows In 1973 in 2 related Supreme Court Judgments (Roe v. Wade and Doe v. Bolton), the Supreme Court ruled a woman had a constitutonal right to abortion , but subject to the exceptions to preserve the mothers life and subject to preserve the mothars physical and emotional mental health , as determined by the atending doctor’s medical judgment re a post-viable fetuse Whether posters agree with or disagree with Abortion itself , this has ben the Law of the US for the past 26 years with the 3 exseptions as per above allowing such abortions In April 2007 Obama co sponsord the the Freedom of Choice Act , which renforces this criteria On the 22/7/07 an 22/1/08 , Obama stated he would sign this act as law as POTUS (Bush will not) Obama’s position is generaly a ‘left’Dems postion It is also the positon of all 4 ‘left’ Supreme Court Judges & 3 of the 5 ‘right’ Judges And ONLY the other 2 ‘right’ Supreme Cort Judges Thomas and Scalia oppose the emotional mentel health exception Now Obama agrees with these ‘right’ Judges Thoamas & Scalia ( 2 of the 9 Suprme Judges) Obam this month said “I don’t think that ‘mental distress’ qualifies as the health of the mother “I think it has to be a serious physical issue that arises in pregnancy” to justify such abortions Obama is now against for part of Roe/Wade that’s 26 yearsof US Law , has reversed his support for his own Act and Obama has sided instead with the 2 extremest ‘right’ judges Supreme Court Juges against the other 7 Court Judges Sooner rather than later a mark ii ‘clarifying’ comment will cometh As said , the issue here is not pro or anti Abortion , but the Obma position change , and Obama’s positioning favouring th ‘right’ Supreme Court Judges This is the 4th time in a month (plus the wiretap proposed Bill) that I’ve posted he’s done so , since being the Nomonee This is not pragmatism , this Obama is supporting ‘right’ judges views Wonder if the Obama as POTUS will appoint ‘left’ or ‘right’ Supreme Court Judges I’m elections ambivelant
Ron,
Obama is not a conservative on abortion – he has an excellent rating from NARAL (and other pro-choice agencies).
What he is doing, however, is drifting right in order to pick up the so-called ‘Reagan Democrats’ in states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, as well as appealing to Southern white voters. As many of us have said before, Obama can’t rely purely on black turnout to win Southern states in November – he needs to win white votes.
Drifting to the right on abortion (as well on gun rights and Gitmo) helps bring some of these voters into the fold. The luxury that Obama has in this election is he doesn’t have to spend nearly the same effort as most presidential candidates (and certainly McCain) rallying the base to vote for him – all he needs to do is to run to the right and squeeze McCain out of the centre…
Politically I think he’s been very shrewd the last few weeks. The Repubs best chance was to paint him as a “Dukakis liberal”. By coming out with some conservative views now, it neuters that line of attack. Also, I wonder how much of the left-wing disappointment is because they’d been idolising Obama they’ve projected a lot of their beliefs onto him.
Al @ 117,
That’s very true. Just before the “clinching” Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Obama and McCain were level on the RCP average (nation-wide). Ever since then, by tacking to the right, Obama has been able to open up a (currently) 5.5% lead over McCain in the RCP averages.
That said, I would expect McCain to get at least 2 more bounces from here – one after he picks his VP (as long as it’s not a mega-dud – see Geraldine Ferraro 1984) and one after the Republican convention. So this race is still far from over…
More confusion from anti Obama quarters above I see. Those same ones decrying his idealism and demanding more pragmatism ala Hillary all through the primaries! The same ones defending DLC politics when it suits then putting a purity suit on to attempt to hit Obama! The ones that don’t like leftist losers, but seem to hate savvy winners as well! ‘Tis too funny.
I’m in complete agreement with SL and Al. The way that the Republicans were going to come out and hit Obama after he captured the nomination – the premise that their whole campaign would have revolved around – was to paint him as a Dukakis. Instead the media is fixated on the Left’s disappointment with Obama. The Republicans cannot pull out their only card now because it will be both confused and confusing.
Perhaps you’re on the money, Al. The Kid’s lurch to the centre is showing indications of hitting electoral pay dirt. Maybe Obi’s obtuse triangulation has an acute angle:)
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/07/obama-making-gains-in-red-stat.html
———————
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080708_elegy/
“He was an outspoken conservative who at times was instrumental in opposition or promotion of civil rights,[2] communism, tax increases, abortion, gay rights, affirmative action, food stamps, secularism, and government-funded healthcare legislation.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Helms
———————-
“Maybe they (China) are due for an old-fashioned industrial-style “cyclical correction”.”
Could be right there, Bo-Bo at 109. The Five Elements of Wu Xing are positioning for a Wrath of Khan alignment;
Metal: Hang Seng stress shear
Wood: Sino-stock splinter
Water: Mandarin monetary maelstrom
Fire: Bourse blow-torch catalysing fiscal flame-out.
Earth: Big Richter recession quake maker
I Ching it likely to induce deep Depression globally going forward.
Obama can have his cake and eat it, or so it seems. The meta-theme in this election is the necessity for change, and he certainly has that issue stitched up. He is the physical, intellectual and oratorical embodiment of change. McCain can’t compete on this ground at all. But at the same time, Obama can maximize his chances by some “cross-cultural” counter-liberal signals. He is letting the voters know he is not a standard issue politician and is willing to walk his own road. In a presidential system, this is very important. Obama will steal McCain’s “maverick” appeal, which has been his only winning card so far. Obama will come to be seen as “the strong leader” who can take America in “the right direction” by promising “inspirational change”. He may end up making Reagan look like a try-hard.
Congress hits a new low. 9% believe it is doing a good job. About the same % that believe in a flat earth. Down from 11% in the last survey. this is te first time it has been in single digits. More doom for the Repugs. Its much easier to blame it on to them. 52% believe they are doing a bad job.
Turmoil hits the McCain camp. Apparently no one knows who’s in charge. Bush III won’t sack anyone, just moves them down the ladder a bit. There for there is continual sniping and back stabbing. Great way to run a campaign. Sort of how George Bush is running the country.
Chris B,
The only problem with your post @ 122 is that Congress is run by the Democrats atm – so how it is easier to blame the Republicans for Congress’ bad performance is beyond me…
Chris, why is it much easier to blame Congress on the Republicans when the Democrats control both houses? I can’t remember who it was that said it, but the GOP should be attacking the Democratic Party and showing that it controls Congress and tying that Obama.
You can always trust Matty Drudge to sink the boot into the US economy, after all it’s a pretty big, stupid target.
China’s economy will overtake that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a study released Tuesday by a US research organization concluded.
The report by economist Albert Keidel of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said China’s rapid growth is driven by domestic demand more than exports, and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into the 21st century.
“China’s economic performance clearly is no flash in the pan,” Keidel writes.
China’s economy to become world’s biggest in 2035: study
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080708201459.iw1grzgd&show_article=1
125 Al Simple. Bush II is in charge of the Presidency. He’s getting blamed for all the stuff ups. Haven’t you seen his polling at the moment? Abysmal. About where the congresses approval is. Co incidental? I don’t think so.
There may be some misundastanding of my position SL and Al Obama in these 5 cases has not moved to the centr bread & buter issues , he has moved to the ‘right’ to neocon on these issues , he moved to the ‘right’ by supporting ‘right’ Supreme court judges against ‘left’ ones The ‘right’ Supreme court Judes represent the consevate neocon views of americans on judicial matters , the ‘left’ ones generaly represent Dems ‘left’ positions So lets look at each Re th Exxon Valdez oils spils demolition of 2,000Km coastline, Obama goes against the ‘left’ judges wanting th Exxon to pay 5 billion to 33,000 alaskans & for the ‘right’ judges support for tth oil company payng only 500 million , that’s not moving to the ‘centre’ at all , that’s moving to the neocons , to big Oilys ‘right’ peoples against the envoronmentalists who are ‘left’ & ‘centre’ peoples Next go to this Wade/Roe mentel exception abortion situation , Obama has not moved to the centre at all , 7 Supreme Court Judges support the current Law mentel exseption , Obama has moved not to th centre but to the exteme right where only only 2 ‘right’ judges thomas & Scalia have written dissenting bits Contradictoryly , Obama is so exteme pro abortion on other issues yous would be shocked , often more exteme than pro abort groups Next take Ilegal wiretapping by Telcos , suggest read my #1991 where he had a public stance in both Jan & Feb of no immunity for dem Telcos , but Obama now supports the Reopublicans coverup of the Republican own corupt practises That is not moving to the ‘centre’ either , or avoiding ‘wedgies of soft on NC , he could hav won that argument easily with centre voters supporting no immunity for big business criminals , but instead flipped on his public position & went with the sell out by Pelosi protecting the ‘right’ , weak as water That’s not moving to the cenre at all , that’s moving next to bush saying OK to corrupt (with Pelosi disgraceful band) Next go to gun control where he has a bad history anyway serving on a pro gun lobby bord etc etc , here Obama has not mooved to the centre , Obama flipped on local gun control & endorsed the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the District of Columbia’s gun-control law. What could be more reasonble than a the DC city restricting handguns, or requiring that firearms be stord in ways that do not present a mortal threat to children? Obama is against this now , that’s not just shutting your mouth altogether or moving centre but moving ‘right’, to the ‘right to bear arms’ And next supporting the Death when no murdr is committed is not moving to the centre either , it is moving to the ‘right’ , neocons believe in death penaltys So Obama has moved not to the centre but to supportg ‘right in all 5 issues , with the wiretap bit as well a shabby sell out of the constitution favouring criminals Not a lot of centre votes in any of them , more likely centre voters giving both ccandidates a miss & not coming out All 5 represent theoretical pragmatic stances to win centre votes by back room boys , but this Ommy guy was already wining the lection on being a new style politic change to man perceptions vs the Mccain opponent could not politicallyfight against that ‘change’ perception & persona , but Obama is not new style politc now All 5 are totally anti ‘left’ positions , all 5 are supportativ of ‘right’ supreme court juges not ‘left’ ones , and reckon you don’t try to win by guting your whole ‘left’ bases principals , why stand if you stand for a Mccain-lite on such 5 fundametal constatutional maters , and do not expect a change after election either , not for me
109
blindoptimist
China’s a worry, and if we think the FR has been slack, god knows how many dodgey assets are still on the Chinese bank books. Still, they’ve been putting up reserves and generally trying to slow the horses, but it got seriously over-cooked, and with raging food prices (pork went ballistic after a massive porcine infection) and staples getting the ‘good oil’ effect of bio-fuel subsidies in the West, these are very dangerous times. It doesn’t take much to cause a REAL calamity when things get this stressed.
But I’m farily sanguine about China in the long term in that domestic demand may slow, but it’s bloody-near unstoppable, and we are feeding into it with minerals. What is NOT good for the US consumer is that Chinese inflation is now being imported along with the flat screens and googaws they consume endlessly, and this is at a time when they can hardly afford to pay it.
Crikey, how quickly things change, eh?
Actually, Bush’s approval rating (RCP 30%) is (somehow) higher than Congress’ approval rating (RCP 18%).
Second, just because a president is popular/unpopular does not mean that Congress’ approval rating will also be high/low. This is particularly the case when the Presidency is in the hands of one party and Congress is in the hands of the other. For example, when Clinton left office his popularity was in the high 50s whilst the GOP-controlled Congress was low. A similar situation was in place when Ronald Reagan left office…
A new poll in Florida puts the Democrats within 4% of the Diaz-Balart brothers, in a Cuban American stronghold, normally dominated by the Repugs.
Ron,
I’m not doubting what you are saying, but can you link to Obama’s statement on the Exxon verdict. I have’t been able to find any comments from him on the case.
130 Swing Lowe The people of the USA do not see it that way.
Swing Lowe,
I think Bill Clinton actually had about a 65% approval rating when he left office.
Chris B @ 131,
Link, please?
Ron @ 130,
What you say is perfectly correct. But I never supported Obama for his policies or his ideology (I was Clintonista before, after all). The reason why I support Obama is simple – he’s a Democrat – and if I could vote for him, I would, not because of his positions on gun control or Exxon Valdez, but SOLELY on the fact that I would rather have a Democrat in the White House than a Republican. And I suspect that there are many (dare I say millions) of people in the US who are going to vote for Obama for that same reason as well…
The average American does not follow/understand politics like you and me. Everything is going down hill. Bush II is in charge, it’s his fault.
Chris B @ 133,
On what basis (other than your gut) do you make that assertion?
I’ve given you two clear examples where a popular President has corresponded with an unpopular Congress of the opposite party. I’m sure there have been more instances of this occurring.
If you’re going to say things like “The people of the USA do not see it that way”, you better have something to back it up…
McCain has chosen the wrong year to run, he would have been more effective in 2000 or 2004. I could be wrong, but surely Obama will have to fall over to lose this one, all things favour the Democrats right now.
Maybe helping people get a roof over their heads or mortgage relief may be a vote puller.
Seems like at the moment the new house starts has dropped from 2 mil in 2006 to round 520000 in this year.
Seems like a few builders may be lining up at the soup kitchens soon!
http://www.builderonline.com/news/industry-in-crisis.aspx
Swing Lowe,
Do you know you have more nerve endings in your gut than you have in your head? You can look it up. I know some of you are going to say “I did look it up, and that’s not true.” That’s ’cause you looked it up in a book. Next time, look it up in your gut.
Ron,
I agree that he’s moved to the right, but I don’t think he’s moved to neoconservatism. I see neoconservatism as focussed on foreign policy and massive military spending. I must agree that I probably agree with the Supreme Court’s Exxon Valdez decision, I thought the $2.5 billion punitive damages was excessive, and there interpretation of maritime law was pretty good.
Gun control and death penatly: if Obama was to run on a gun control and stopping the death penalty platform he would be absolutely carved up by the GOP. We have a very Australian-centric view of these issues and struggle to understand the passion with which people believe in these things in America. Also that move is to a more classical right position (less Government interference in private lives) than a neocon position. While in Australian politics, it would definitely be perceived as movement towards to the right, I would call his position on them in American politics more centrist. The Democratic Party isn’t actually a left party, they’re just not as far to the right as the Republican Party.
I’m not completely sure on FISA. I don’t see why giving telecoms immunity over actions done at the behest of the government is such a big deal. It should lead to the telecoms providing more substantial evidence against the Bush administration so that we could see some real repercussions against the actual offenders.
Al @ 141
“Do you know you have more nerve endings in your gut than you have in your head?”
I’m sorry but that is absolute BS.
1. You have a similar number of neurons in you gut as in you spinal cord. There are vastly more neurons in you cerebrum than in the gut.
2. In terms of “nerve endings” the neurons in your gut don’t have nearly as many axons and dendrites as those in your brain.
Al
Should have included the numbers.
Human brain= 100 billion neurons
Human enteric (gut) nervous system and spinal cord=500 million neurons each
Stay outta the no fact zone Dio!
Dio, you’re a factonista!
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Stephen_Colbert_White_House_Press_Correspondents_Dinner
Oh yeah. I forgot that one. How embarrassment!
Quick update on Intrade market for Democratic VPs (following Gov. Warner’s withdrawal from the running) – the higher the number the higher the odds:
Clinton – 16.5
Sebelius – 10.7
Hagel – 10.0 (why?)
Bayh – 8.6
Biden – 6.9
McCaskill – 6.5
Richardson – 6.5
Kaine – 6.0
Wesley Clark/Gephardt/Reed (D – RI) – all 5.0
I’m still amazed at how high Chuck Hagel is travelling – I still can’t imagine a Democratic senator picking a Republican senator as his running mate for President…
And for interest’s sake (and coz no one else seems to be writing anything on this thread today), here are the main Republican front-runners for VP:
Romney – 24.6
Huckabee – 14.0
Pawlenty – 14.0
Palin – 11.2 (Gov. of Alaska)
Crist – 10.0
Rob Portman – 8.0 (former Rep. from Ohio)
Carly Fiorina – 7.0 (former CEO of HP)
Thune – 7.0 (Sen. from SD)
For anyone who’s interested, Jindal is sitting way back at 4.0.
#119, Panching,
More confusion from pro Obama quarters above I see. Those same ones starry-eyed his idealism and demanding more idealism ala Messiah all through the primaries! The same ones defending new politics when it suits then putting an old politics pragmatism suit on to attempt to justify Obama! The ones that don’t like principled centrist losers, but seem to love hollow rightist winners as well! ‘Tis too funny.
Never mind Finns, I’m sure you’ll pick the winner next time.
pancho, more important, have you picked a winner?
Dick Cheney has been accused of interferrring in climate change testimony. A former official stood with Barbera Boxer at a press conference, which she ripped into Cheney for not protecting the people he is supposed to protect.
It’s very quiet on the politcal news stories today. Calm before the storm?
I know that befor i posted i’d be I’d be in probably prtty small dinghy of principals , but I like to win to , but win with some cloths left on so I can make some changes seeing I’m supposed to be the new change mans I’m already wining the election on that perceptions , got al the young that have not voted before ready to storm the voting queus , 350 million war chest , the other McCain only got 85 million and Mcain minus the bush 11 albotross and McCain minus supporting Iraq war an Mcain minu the credit crisis 7 job losses and minus everytim Mccain flips when opens his mouth These 5 principals most ‘left’ support & all ‘left’ Suptreme cout Judges suport , throw dem under the bus Already do not support the Edwards/Hllary universl healcare , already do not support the Edwards /hillary unqualifieed kyoto mark 11 committtment , and with Iraq now promising only to withhdraw ‘combat troops’ & leave a counter terroism force plus leav the military bases and have shades of vitnam ”military instructers ‘and got i got a list of over 30 other issues not posted , Edwards & Gore may be old style politcs but i could see them from a dinghy but can not see a ‘new style of politcs change to man’ Now realise i’m minority here , but voting for someone part unknown & part changed from left’ stances just becaus he is not Mccaiin & not wanting a Repug is abit integrity blackmail on us reely & leaves me the opton in US of not voting on principals , or being ambivalent or a minor candy Also , maybe look at visuals of alskan coastline & fish/bird graves , lost eco systems ands 15,000 each peoples compensation 10% of original vs Exxons 41 billion porofit this year OR look at no iminity , it meands the legal cases against the crrok corrupt bush & henchmen is stone dead , all Oily execs will hav memory papses in witness box now as yu look at ACCCC Samuels he “traded” imunity to Amocor to get Pratt Visy , police do same with trafficer to gt big fish so Obama’s ’support’ of no imunity that actualy has no ‘trade’ deal to tetify is not clever except for the guilty ie bush etctc so got off track , back to start here you win with some undies and some basic policys and some basic rules of law & ‘left’ principals & not throw all overboard for me guys
“After leaving ABC, Roland Burton Hedley III did a brief stint as “chief content provider” for Yap!com, but went back to television when the site was downsized by the AOL-Time Warner merger. He then worked for CNN and now works for Fox News.”
Wed July 9:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/doonesbury;_ylt=Aif8P7LSbhwDwcLufW1_uB7b.sgF
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roland_Hedley
Tues July 8:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=Au41HTGkfNiECRlNE5JrfOhR_b4F
Al at 117: “Politically I think he’s(Obi) been very shrewd the last few weeks. The Repubs best chance was to paint him as a “Dukakis liberal”. By coming out with some conservative views now, it neuters that line of attack.”
Tues July 8:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=Alg3feU.BqGobB_dBk2f_kBN_b4F
Btw, Al, can’t recall the last time Doc’s been got that good. No doubt about Colbert though, if only the piss-weak House Dems had a soupcon of the moral courage Colbert displayed at the 2006 WH press dinner. The guy’s a mensch of Swiftian dimensions. No one had ever stuck it up The Imbecile to his face like that in Primetime before.
Regarding VP,
Sebelius is still clearly the front runner for Obama. It was clear a long time ago that she was his preference. And his pivot since getting the nomination only makes it more obvious that Sebelius is his perfect fit.
He is going to handle National Security himself. It’s clear now he doesn’t think he needs a guy like Hagel, Nunn, Biden or all the other old hand guys mentioned. He is massaging Iraq, being “strong” on national security(with his unforgiveable about face on FISA),being patriotic etc etc.
Sebelius is the perfect fit for his new politics message of “One America”. That has always been his message…cut the left/right divisions and be one America. Sebelius has been sent to all the important meetings of power players of late and everything points to her imo.
Obama and Sebelius look, sound and feel like a Team. They will play extremely well with the Independants that are mostly made up of Right leaners that are disillusioned with Repugs but aren’t Al Franken liberals.
For the Repubs,
It is a landmine ready to go off whoever Ol Bomb Bomb picks. Every pick will set off explosions in one vital subset of the modern Repug Party vote. He has to be adventurous to get back in the game but every adventurous pick brings its own ready made disaster.
On balance he should probably pick Romney, but McSame is such a cantankerous stubborn bloke that he probably won’t.
He is probably stubborn enough to say F*ck you all and go with one of his remaining pals..Crist,Graham or Lie-berman.
148
The Finnigans Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
“#119, Panching…..More confusion from pro Obama quarters…”
…
I am not sure if you include me in this or not, Finns. But, to allay any doubt, I am not confused about Obama. I think he is a tough, shrewd, intelligent, determined, talented, competitive, savvy, thoughtful, perceptive, deft and profoundly ambitious candidate. I also think he has the makings of a good leader – maybe even a great leader. And doesn’t America need one!
Having said all this, I don’t think I have a romanticized view of him. I think the labels used – liberal, centrist, conservative, moderate, progressive, neocon, flip-flopper, maverick – are at best blunt tools. I also think that anyone who can re-direct American politics away from unilateral war and a rejectionist stance on climate change, reform of the global economy and the regulation of business should be welcomed.
The human population faces some very, very serious issues. Political leadership is not much, but it is the starting point in dealing with our problems. We should hope America can find someone willing to at least have a go at things before it really is too late. So when I look from my vantage point overlooking the Indian Ocean and I ask: who is more likely to have a crack at things? A bamboozled and obsolete croaker with as much of a clue about things as my old Mum, or a young, educated, eloquent, energetic modernist? Well, there’s nothing to be confused about at all.
The main problem with picking Sebelius has to do with the Clintonian elephant in the room that it would raise. Clinton supporters would go nuts if he went for a woman that wasn’t Hillary while she was still in the running. If Hillary does a Webb or Warner and categorically rules herself out, then it probably becomes a different story.
Also working against Sebelius is the fact that she is also a relative novice, and is pretty boring.
She’s thereabouts, but I’d put Clinton, Biden and Clark out in front with her.
New poll in Rhode Island, not that it matters, but anyway:
Obama 55
McCain 31
3 most likely VP picks: Clark, Clinton, Edwards.
Yep Pancho we’ll soon see.
Look for Clinton to soon rule herself out of the VP candidacy. She has had her fun playing with the PUMAS and damaging Obama as much as she can while she (in her and Bill’s mind…oh and Lanny,Terry and the crew) bides her time til 2012.
For her political future she will publicly rule herself out of the job she doesn’t and has never wanted.
Obama won’t be swayed by the Clintons and *HER 18 million fictional voters* in his choice…you can bank on that.
You gotta be kiddin me if you don’t think women will be happy with a woman VP.
Only the PUMAS think Hillary is the ONLY woman.
Panching, admit it. Hill is the best Veep candidate as well as best POTUS candidate as the events are unfolding. but ask any Olympian, the best dont always win.
Amigo Ronnie: [but win with some cloths left on] – right-on.
Japanese soldiers in the 50s anyone? Let the dream go Finnster!
Does anyone really think Hill, and especially Bill, are going to hand over their complete records for inspection all for a lousy VP spot?
And does anyone think the Obama Team will risk having the Clintons as his running mates?
Cmon…step into reality.
If Sebelius is Obama’s pick, Hillary will be demanded to withdraw publicly well in advance of the VP announcement.
Panching – [Japanese soldiers in the 50s anyone?] – they might be misguided but at least they stayed royal and principled. can you say the same about your candidate?
Not Happy, jane.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-obama-internet_wedjul09,0,1582289.story
#164 – loyal
HarryH,
What does Sebelius bring to the table? She’s an inexperienced Governor from a deeply red (and small) state that Obama isn’t going to win in November no matter what. She’s boring and her being picked will infuriate some Clinton supporters. Her positives are limited (other than being a long-time supporter of Obama).
Anyway, it’s arguable that the US isn’t quite ready to elect a double-minority ticket to the White House. After all, this is the reason why people have ruled out Bill Richardson as a possible running mate…
Additionally, there are plenty of other good (and safer) VP alternatives for Obama. Just think about them – Clark, Kaine, Bayh, etc.
Finns
Unfortunately for yourself and the other Clinton clingers, it is this pivot that Obama has done that has finally relegated Billary to irrelevance.
Obama is winning over Clinton’s internal backers. It is Hill’s donors that encouraged his backflip on FISA.Donors and bigwigs care about results, not personalities. This is Obama’s time now. Clintons are yesterdays news.
In reality the past couple weeks are bad news for diehard personal Obama AND Clinton supporters.
For the people that won Obama the Primary, his new FISA stance is a total stab in the back. It was only February when he stood sise by side with Sen. Feingold in Wisconsin and promised he would stand sise by side with Feingold and Dodd and lead the way in rejecting the immunity given to the Bush Gangs in the new FISA law.
His other pivots since starting the General are all within the scope of his stated beliefs and principals, but his new FISA stance is a complete sellout.
For the people who support Clinton though, Obama’s pivot has left her irrelevant. If Obama ran as a Liberal, she had her place of relevancy in the Dem Party. But now that is gone.
167
not sure how i wrote “sise by side* twice lol. *side by side
HarryH: [Obama is winning over Clinton’s internal backers. It is Hill’s donors that encouraged his backflip on FISA.]
Not according to the WSJ:
Obama Faces Resistance From Top Supporters of Clinton – Sen. Barack Obama, the presumed Democratic presidential nominee, faces dissent from dozens of top fund-raisers and other supporters of former rival Sen. Hillary Clinton, who are angry over how she was treated during their bruising primary battle and are hesitating to back Sen. Obama.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121539354782631403.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news
166 Swing Lowe
I am only looking at it all objectively. I have no interest in Sebelius getting the job, and she is nowhere near my political sphere.
It is just my opinion after reading a lot and especially listening to what Obama actually says and what the contenders have said, when and where they have said it, and to whom they are speaking to.
Obama, and a few insiders, have long hinted at Sebelius as his preference. And Sebelius has been speaking to important audiences lately, from The Bilderburg Group to the recent DLC meeting that Obama didn’t attend. She seems to me to be doing a lot of the proxy work for Obama behind the scenes.
And there was her little slip about a month back that she was “looking forward to campaigning for Barack across the country”. Most Governors would say “across the State”.
Then about a week later Wes Clark introduced her at a closed door big honcho reception in Kansas as ” Americas next VP Kathleen Sebelius”.
We will soon see i s’pose.
169 Finns
Exactly.
Obama wants her backers. He’s a Poli.
They are making demands and he is acquiescing on some things.
Isn’t that what i said?
The second para of the article you linked says
“Some leading Clinton supporters are starting new Web sites or political action committees aimed at prodding Sen. Obama on issues or pressuring him to give Sen. Clinton a big role in the general-election campaign. People familiar with the matter say the effort involves dozens of the roughly 300 Clinton “Hillraisers,” individuals who raised at least $100,000″
Looking through an album cover site for a cover for my America mp3’s when I came across McCain Lost in America. Not the same first name, but it could be an omen.
http://www.albumartexchange.com
Antennae on Finns:
“Terry McAuliffe was obviously one of Hillary’s most aggressive and high-profile advocates during the primary, but now McAuliffe is really doing his part to help Obama get elected.
We hear McAuliffe will be the main attraction at a unity event for Obama this Thursday, along with Rep. Artur Davis, a top Obama supporter. A source forwards us the invite…
The event is meant to get lawyers and other young professionals who backed Hillary to swing behind Obama — it’s being organized by a bunch of pro-Hillary groups, such as Young Lawyers for Hillary and Young Professionals for Hillary.
Separately, today’s Chicago Sun Times caught a glimpse of McAuliffe in Aspen, where he went out of his way to reassure a table-full of Obama supporters: ”We’re all on the same team now! This election is too important.”
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/07/mcauliffe_hosting_fundraiser_f.php
I think unity is the order in camp Hills these days.
I was originally a Hillary supporter, now that I have swung behind Obama, I can see that Obama is going to do much better than Hillary ever could. Especially in the black vote in the south.
Mind you, that was only once I started looking at the demographics.
http://216.55.182.132/FairData/Historical/map.asp?command=scope&map=0
Hillraisers punched a bit of fat her way
All Hillrazors want to do is cut her down
Panching, are you trying to buy me off?
After careful reflection, I have decided this will be the final US election thread. It will close for business in a week’s time, at which point American politics will be declared off-topic across the site. Many thanks for your co-operation.
William
thank you for your patience & our opportunity to post here
It looks like arriverdeci time. thanks WB. It looks like i have to take it out on the Nowhere Man now. poor Brendon.
124
Swing Lowe Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Chris B,
The only problem with your post @ 122 is that Congress is run by the Democrats atm – so how it is easier to blame the Republicans for Congress’ bad performance is beyond me…
Swing Lowe, I concur with your take on the US election (e.g. your cogent analysis of Obama’s Veep options in #166), but the Senate is only nominally run by Dems because WAACP Senator (War Against Any Arab Country Party), Joe Lieberman holds the balance of power. Furthermore, with a 2/3 majority required to overturn a Presidential veto and with 60% required to halt a filibuster in order to call a billl up for the vote and with V.P. Cheney presiding, the Senate is, to use technical terminology, stuffed. This lack of a true Dem Senate majority is the consequence of only 1/3 of the Senate being up for election in 2006, in contrast to all of the House of Reps.
If the Dems pick up 5 or 6 more Senate seats this year, and Obama is President, then the Dems will, within half a year, be blamed for everything that is wrong with America. Just as the Rudd Government is now being held totally responsible by the Murdoch press for all problems created by Team Howard.
Way back in May (remember the primaries?) someone came up with the idea to have parties on bridges all over the world in support of Obama. Here is a collection of photos from that event (about 7 pages).
http://www.flickr.com/photos/23556339@N05/
178 William Bowe What a shame.
157
Pancho
Hillary has already effectively rescinded her claim Pancho. It was part of the deal involving a small sum of $20m. Obama would have made it highly conditional: we throw you a rope to lug you out of the hole and you emerge all ‘unity’ and with no strings attached.
I’d be surprised if this wasn’t the case, but if I’m wrong, no doubt will find the details and post them here within the hour! LOL
Ha, right on cue: some comments in answer to an email to Obama supporters to stump up for Hillary’s debts:
“Why would I help pay off debts that Hillary amassed simply to keep damaging Senator Obama?”
“Gas prices are up, the markets are in turmoil, my kid’s fall tuition bill is coming soon. Writing checks to politicians I don’t like is not at the top of my list.”
NYTimes
…many apparently are unprintable! LOL No suprises really. Only 100k so far, which means Hillary’s Hole ain’t gettin’ filled any time this decade at that rate!
Off topic, but what the heck. Hats off to Gordon Brown for having some gumption to stir some support:
British officials said that Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister, used shock tactics to win support for a tough G8 statement refusing to recognise Mr Mugabe’s rule. He was said to have pulled fellow leaders aside to show them a horrific photograph of a driver for Zimbabwe’s opposition Movement for Democratic Change who was brutally murdered last month. He told them that every day the world failed to act, similar tragedies would follow
Crikey
…looks like he’s getting some support too.
KR at 186
It’s about time too!
187
Yeah, if only they had oil, they’d be invaded for the sake of democracy in a nano-second! LOL
On another subject, namely the US mortgage market. For the two big GSE’s (government sponsored enterpirses) Freddie and Fannie, things don’t look good, share prices down 60% and severe anxiousness about their need to get fresh capital is rattling the market.
And it ain’t chicken feed if things get nasty on this one:
“We believe any threat of [a Fannie or Freddie] failure could trigger a meltdown in credit markets that would make the movements in credit markets that we’ve seen over the last year look like a modest hiccup,” Harting wrote. “Needless to say, the impact of a dislocation of that order could cause serious harm to the global economy.”
…as they hold a mere $4 trillion in US mortgages, and are the guarantors that securitise the loans, allowing the banks to re-cycle the capital into the market, any problems here and we’re talking Armageddon for the US financial and housing markets.
That both companies have fallen so far, so quickly is NOT a sign that the punters are sanguine about their futures, so one to watch.
LOL William finally decided to pull the plug on these, cross between World Championship Wrestling and Days Of Our Lives, threads!
FISA and U.S. Government agency G-men and G-women, ‘fraid G-persons doesn’t really seem to cut it, have been spying on U.S. Citizens through and during many exchanges. Obama’s “I won’t prosecute spooking phone corporations” shouldn’t have come, bleeding hearts aside, as a surprise.
Remarkably, there has been a massive surge in the sale of courier pigeons in The Land of the Free. Sadly, passenger pigeons are no longer available for communicational purposes as Dick Cheney’s forebears indulged their hunting passions with great extinction.
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55951
Lily Tomlin as: Ernestine – The obnoxious telephone operator with no concern for her customers (”‘Fair’? Sir, we don’t have to be fair. We’re the phone company.”).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rowan_&_Martin’s_Laugh-In
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hv18k_pec3o
—————–
Psssst, Kirri, been to “that other site”; great minds etc….
Btw, soldier, havn’t had anyone put up there hand yet to scope a Sydney venue for Nov. 5. OK with you if we shoot for Brissy should no one “own” organising it “down there”? Want to announce details well before William shuts his Sep shop ici.
“Psssst, Kirri, been to “that other site”; great minds etc…”
Yep, that site is still going, looooserrrr!
Only kidding EC, I couldn’t help myself.
It’s a shame to see the US thread go. The Oz thread is incredibly insipid and narrow, with endless mind-numbing debate about climate change from people who are not scientists but pretend to understand the issues in some fantasy land.
Agreed Diogs.
Wht happens in terms of the global impact from the US elections re: environmental policy, economic fallout, the Iraq war, the middle east situation not to mention the long awaited departure of GWB is pretty important IMHumble O.
What happens to Brendan Nelson seems a but trivial in comparison , however William has shown great tolerance until now and it’s his site so…what the heck.
As far as I’m concerned, the more esoteric the subject matter on this site, the better. The best threads here have been about electoral law, court rulings, redistributions, state by-elections and the Tasmanian upper house. I’ve never written about environmental policy, the Iraq war and the Middle East situation, so why am I moderating discussion about it?
William
I don’t understand much about moderating a blog that is effectively live and always seems to be open but I imagine its quite a task. Appreciate your efforts on various fronts. I would think an explanation of what is involved and a statement about expectations of participants as an introduction to people who are not used to blog sites or are inclined to think niggling or slagging off at people is fun would be helpful – somewhere accessible as Site Rules/Manners or similar. Combining the more technical and legal aspects of elections with the more social aspects of chat is also good and caters for a range of interests. Hopefully this site can provide an outlet perhaps after a break for information and debate on the US political system.
William
A break would do everyone good but I wonder if there is a chance of the US thread being resurrected about a month before the November election.
William-
I guess people who are interested in politics (as opposed to psephology) tend to go wherever the latest issues are, which was never the point of your site I know, so we have unwittingly hijacked it. Thanks from your patience and for what it’s worth it has been an important part of my day to to day life to have this enggement with others from all sides of the political spectrum.
Many thanks.
I will probably live blog on the day, and maybe open a thread a week beforehand. I’m not going to do guidelines, because my rulings will vary according to circumstance.
William
Thanks for that little ray of hope. I’m not sure where I’ll go to get my daily dose of abuse now. Perhaps Bill O’Reilly or Ann Coulter have a blog which needs a liberal perspective from Australia…
I appreciate your patience with us. We are an unruly but spirited bunch.
i love youse all. is Poss ready for us?
Catrina,
I blame you, the rot set in with your excessively boring turds on this blog.
Catrina, you’ve been a lovely addition to this swamp, so just ignore bogman,er sorry, blogman Eddy, he’s a distasteful creature with a personality disorder who usually attacks women for gratuitous amusement or makes impossibly ludicrous claims about whatever is said about his disgraceful behaviour.
One character nobody will miss.
And the Persians are doing some ’shock and awe’ rehearsals I see, just to ratchet up the stakes for anyone (hint: nuclear armed neighbour) even thinking about a bit of ‘pre-emptive strike’ in the Bush mode.
Let’s wait for McCain to climb aboard this one.
KirriR,
Wow! You blew me away with that buddy!
yes, one woman yapping 4am and one hand bloggin all day long did not help at all
Please don’t, ESJ.
I haven’t been paying much attention lately, but I take it we have an axis of ESJ/Finns/GG/Ron going on here? An arch-conservative, a revolutionary Marxist of some description, an old-left Laborite and whatever it is that Ron is? Am I categorising you all correctly?
I think that William should be nominated for sainthood (while the Big Man is in town) for the patience he has shown in the face of extreme provocation in most (all?) of the threads on the US election.
It’s been riveting stuff at its best, but clearly there are plenty of other sites (alas, mainly based across the Pacific) where junkies can continue to get their fix.
It’s also true that during this period of comparative hiatus, there’s little new ground to be canvassed. An enforced spell for the Barry Halls on all sides of these debates (there’s certainly more than two) seems highly desirable.
What you have William is a good example of the crap that Catrina and many of the rest of us has copped for no good reason. So give us some leeway if we arcked up at times in response.
Well said Kirri. Nothing to lose now I guess.
who’s Barry Hall?
Meanwhile back at the ranch, yet another electable Democrat passes on being VEEP candidate:
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/07/08/virginias-warner-saying-no-to-obama-vp-spot/
I wonder why?
And for those seeking a genuine left alternative:
http://www.votenader.org/
William, Muchas Gracias and ‘Onya for your moderation time and tolerance.
For those unable to cope with withdrawal, a good blog site for your contributions is Tim’s Dunlop’s Blogocracy at, incredibly, news.com.au. :
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/
However, it’s got a much, much slower moderation process, so the thrust and parry of viewpoints is not quite the same. For some here (no names, no pack drill) that might be a positive.
Cheers, William!
AL & FINNS
#117
“the Repubs best chance was to paint him as a “Dukakis liberal”. By coming out with some conservative views now, it neuters that line of attack.”
I replied to you today from viewpot of aiming to win but winning with most your cloths (that FINNS liked) ie. Keeping your core policys & principals like Rudd did & ‘avoiding’ the minor wedgies like the $34 bill tax cuts & put then in 1 year intead of 2 at th expense of infastuctur spending , but took out the rich’s tax cuts So i criticise this Obama tactic on principals policy I could hav critisised it as poor politicl tactics as well as it is Firstly by jumping from the ‘left’ to the ‘right’ on these many issues , instead of to the ‘centre’ Obam can be cleverley attacked by Mccain as juming too far doing so for shaby votes & just being a ‘another politican’ ie attacjking Obama’s bigest asset , ‘change’ & him being new & not a normal wahington pollie & bringing Oba dowwn to his mcCains level However i admit the Repugs campaign/Mccain haven’t shhown much nous todate The second tactic Obama leaves himself open for , if the Repugs were smart is to use the examples to paint Obama has lite on what he stands four & force him to be specific onpolicy Its here here , Obama does have big problams as most are motherhood general one meaning noithing , seeing he’s got no big ‘left’ core issue in his pocket like univeral heathcar , unqualifed Kyoto nor unambigious iraq withdrawl policys Then Obama would be in serious credibility problem & politcal problem a pollie without core ‘left’ policys , but not sure the Repugs hav the ‘howard political smarts’ to expose him there either so on 2 basic politcal tctics & on principals , Obama’s move not to the ‘centre’ , but to the ‘right’ without core big ticket ‘left’ policys is flawed But with a weak oponent , a comlient press & poor Repug politcal tactics it may not matter Whats you 2 guys take
Just tried the other thread. Yawn.
There are a couple of people who I have contaced via William who’s connection I value. I submit the folllowing – those of us who would like to stay in touch via email let william know (via his email). Then we can take it or leave it. Or is that a dumb idea ?
Seems a shame to let the connections made just disappear. but then again, that’s life.Not sure.
But i do want to watch teh US elections with the other interseted people from here – so we better sort it out fast.
At this point Brisbane appears to be the go. Any takers for organising Sydney?
Otherwise I’m booking my ticket next week.
(Pressure’s on Ecky.)
No WB, there is no axis of ESJ/Finns/GG/Ron. It was just too much one hand clappin’ from the Obama side, so someone has to clap with the other hand.
But methinks you are close to the mark with [An arch-conservative, a revolutionary Marxist of some description, an old-left Laborite and whatever it is that Ron]
Finns I prefer to think of it as a Rainbow coalition of truth against the forces of prejudice and intolerance.
Interesting to see how amny lurkers are emerging. Maybe we’ve been entertainment for the hidden. Why on earth else would you bother reading what we say?!
jen, what would life be now without you
Margo Kingston’s Webdiary
http://webdiary.com.au/cms/
But it is moderated and much more focus. But it is not the same since Margo departed.
Finns- from your comments to date I can only think you will be blissfully happy.
jen, you are not SERIOUS
Oh look – they have a word just for us.
http://www.slate.com/id/2195006/
(No Finns- I know you really love me.)
The Anti-Obama Coalition has effectively taken over the board, it’s a little hard for the rest of us to get our points across!
William
“Am I categorising you all correctly? ”
No you are not , unless you are jesting Thought my views were clear to my opponents , perhaps not
195
William Bowe Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
As far as I’m concerned, the more esoteric the subject matter on this site, the better. The best threads here have been about electoral law, court rulings, redistributions, state by-elections and the Tasmanian upper house. I’ve never written about environmental policy, the Iraq war and the Middle East situation, so why am I moderating discussion about it?
Esoteric? Better?
Esoteric…hmmm; better, err than what? The book keeper run over by the ‘economy’ syndrome here Mr Bowe.
Unfortunately your last sentence is as they say ‘where it’s at’; and the answer is you put the posts up!
You seem confused and to be fair, having opened the gate, some of your ‘moderation’ & ‘non moderation’ of the ’sheep’ reflect that; to be or not to be etc.
That said, many thanks Bill, it has been a pleasure and okay fess up to a wild & delicious indulgence to boot.
Suitably dwalfied, & wings folded, codger.
All ‘pissant’ posters made this. Thanks.
Progressive-
they are in fact the ABO’s- Anyone But Obama party- which in effect means they are happy to see McCain in office. Canyou believe it???
I mean “better” than what you write, Codger. Antony Green, Graeme Orr, Geoff Lambert, Kevin Bonham and Peter Tucker on the one hand, you on the other. Dig?
geez William –
harsh.
Speaking of McCain Jen, I caught a snippet of him speaking (if that’s an accurate term, more like intoning in monotones), to some near geriatric looking room, and as he delivered his ‘punch line’ about how he would not be raising their taxes, it was as if the room turned to waxwork dummies, for there was not even a murmur of recognition or approval. So he went at it sideways, and still not a breath.
I almost, (almost) felt sorry for him. He just died at the lectern, stone dead.
It’s a long time to carry that shtick around like an albatross, but someone’s gotta carry the Republican trash to November and get walloped with it.
William
” Antony Green, Graeme Orr, Geoff Lambert, Kevin Bonham and Peter Tucker”
You missed my name from that list ?
If we wanna move toward more esoteric electoral matters, I suggest that we discuss the myriad ways in which the Repugs are likely to violate the democratic rights of U.S voters in this election.
The U.S calls itself the greatest democracy in the world – the way in which voters are regularly disenfranchised undermines that statement utterly.
What’s more, I would contend that any nation that doesn’t require it’s citizens to attend the polls on election day is, at best, a flawed and disfunctional democracy.
Just hoping that might stir a little discussion that goes beyond partisan cheerleading.
Or conversely William, you could compare 202 above with anything from Codger and come to the conclusion that the latter is not a self-inflated pompous git with a penchant for gratuitous and grubby personal remarks.
If character is the measure, and not literary style, I’ll give my vote to Codger as a decent (albeit somewhat eccentric) chap.
Comparing anyone here to professional scribes is hardly the point. We may as well shut down the internet and subscribe to whatever Murdoch has not yet managed to shovel down his maw, and be done with it.
Just my two bobs worth…
Alternatively, we could talk about the eerie similarities between the campaign we are all observing now and the last two seasons of the West Wing.
You know, the young, fresh, non-white Democratic candidate versus the ageing, veteran of the Senate who ticks off his right-wing base.
Does anyone like this idea?
http://pollbludgerus.blogspot.com/
KR,
I like your style.
Codger is indeed a much nicer chap than ESJ, but he should know by now that I don’t take being needled with good humour.
Optmist-
you’re raising the issue of compulsary voting. A fraught one indeed.
In principle it should not happen – democracy by definition should mean that you have the right to vote -or not. But in practice it means that the groups with the dough can mobilise thier supporters, and therfore have the most power – like in the US the Natonal Rifle association or the Fundies.
So if everyone is forced to vote those that disagree are made to state their oppositon- albeit unwillingly. Therefore greater representation from the masses.
Mind you – they do get it wrong sometimes – 8 years of Howard here is a good example.
But then they toss them out-…
Willim- dare I ask?
Yes.
I still don’t get why you are so pissed off with us having read the stuff on the other sites.
Are we really so much worse, or what…?
sorry – WilliAm.
237
William Bowe
Bare knuckle blogging is it to be then William?
I seriously wonder what we’ve done to deserve this! LOL
Jen,
glad to chat about it, particularly with someone as open-minded and reflective as your good self.
I’m not actually raising the issue of compulsory voting. I’m raising the issue of compulsory attendance at the polls on election day – which is what we have here in Australia. There is nothing to stop us from voting informal or “donkey” on election day and thereby making whatever statement of non-participation we might wanna make.
It’s my firm and passionate belief that a true democracy should not force its citizens to vote, but that it should be compulsory for those citizens to attend the polls on election day.
Those who enjoy the freedom and rights that a democracy bestows, should discharge one simple responsibility in return – attend the polls and at least consider participating in the proper functioning of that democracy.
Whaddaya reackon?
Optimist
without re starting the specfics of the FL in paricular primary but th principal that the US idea of democracy is somewhat different to ‘oz’ We did have 1.7 million peope vote in FL , both candidates were on the ticket , a legal election under the US constitution & under the UN , and even the hillary side in the US and the US media I thought partly acepted the idea of a committe disnechasing an election 4 months in advance , but the FL election did happen and the reaction as i said even from the hillary side as not the outrage the same americans would have said if the process of a committee vs 1.7 million voters had of occurred ina non democratic country And i think it goes to the idea of voluntary voting and partys using ‘tricks’ to mobilise voters to actualy come out to vote vs us we ALL aussies do make the ‘voluntary’ effort (a swe ar educated early its compulsory)
me too Kirri-.
and I’m not LOL’lling. I’m affronted.
It should be very much the same as it was early last month, when I went away for a week and nobody noticed.
We missed you Wiliam. Don’t underestimate yourself.
William Bowe at 237
Yuck …
But I was going to suggest that we could put in place a replacement using the wordpress public blog site. William, could you provide details of the theme your using and any plugins needed to pull things into a familiar place?
I’m happy to set it up.
I didn’t mean you Jen, if that’s any comfort.
Ron,
the Florida primary is a sepearate issue to what I’ve talked about above.
I realise that you’re ticked off about it not being counted and you’re entitled to that view, but I’m more interested in talking about what I’ve just posted in response to Jen right now.
I’m not following the point of your last line – you seem to be saying that Aussies make a “voluntary” effort as we are educated that it is compulsory – isn’t that a contradiction in terms?
247
William Bowe
OK, I’m up for it.
But one question:
A political forum for quarrelsome Australians who presume to understand what’s going on in America
…is a curious headline banner. Considering that at least one ‘expert’, (you know who!) got it so absolutely deadset wrong it ain’t funny, whilst many humble bloggers got it absolutely right regarding the Democratic nominee.
So isn’t it a slightly spiteful barb? For surely we don’t ‘presume to understand’…we actually do! (Irony alert!! LOL)
oh yes, Mistress Catrina!
That’ll sort out the miscreants! LOL
(I think you’d make a lovely Blogmistress, firm, but fair! LOL)
Optimist- I fully agree.
I have to say that as corny as it may sound standing for election and being there at the booths on polling day when democracy is in action is one of the greatest priveleges I have experienced.
I love the fact that people do or don’t tell you who they are going to vote for you , or tell you that they would never vote for a fcking greenie, while we all – Family First, Labor, Liberal , Greens whoever, stand together sharing aerogard, buying coffees for each other, handing out the How to Votes for each other while soemone nicks off to the toilet…
not a shot fired, not a riot . We are blessed.
We are in fact democracy in action.
And so, by the way, is Pollbludger.
Optimist
what i was trying to suggest that here in ‘oz’ we ar compulsorilly forced to turn up , but can vote informal if we want So the ‘oz system’ does build some respect by ‘oz’ voters for an election decided by all and ‘oz’ people pretty happily ALL now come out to vote vs the US sysytem of say 55% voting and even that number inflatd by Partys using “tricks” to mobilise to mobilise their base to actualy vote My FL example was only to indicate abit of disrespect by ALL US politicnas & media for elections thats why i included even hillary /her supporters/media being laid about a 1.7 million voting election” (so i was not reffering to the actual FL debate itself , more the poor ‘laid back’ US-centric about electons themselves , so i was only using it as an example
Catrina, I agree that would be preferable if someone was willing to put in the effort, and I’d be very grateful if you did so. You can get the theme here:
http://themes.wordpress.net/columns/2-columns/3873/paalam-11/
The only plugins I use are sidebar comments and paged comments, which you can get here:
http://www.semiologic.com/software/widgets/fuzzy-widgets/
http://www.keyvan.net/code/paged-comments/
William Bowe at 256
Thanks for the info – should have things up and operational within an hour.
Yay Catrina- you are HOT!!
btw- does that mean you get to moderate??
ha! this could be fun.
Ha! Will ESJ have to grovel to get in! LOL
Laugh! I nearly shat…to quote the immortal words of Dudley Moore.
Kirri -
I’ll in blogger heaven if Catrina gets to have a bit of her own back!
Go you girl.
Jen,
well said. I too have experienced the unusual comraderie that develops among the ideologically opposed on election days and it goes a long way to restoring my faith in politics (a faith that wanes on at regular intervals, sadly).
I’m far from having a doctorate on the subject, so I might just be blowing hot air, but my understanding of the main reason the U.S doesn’t have compulsory voting is that it is considered a violation of the 1st amendment ensuring the right to free speech. As I understand the argument, compulsory voting is seen as the state compelling a citizen to “speak” through the action of voting and the 1st ammendment covers the right of a citizen to not speak as much as it does their right to speak.
In my humble view (as I said, I don’t have a doctorate or a law degree) compulsory attendance at the polls wouldn’t necessarily constitute such a violation, however it would provide a means by which citizens could fulfill what I believe is their one, fundamental responsibility to the democracy they enjoy.
Anyhoo, it’s just my take on things – the reality is that I can’t see a way in which it would be introduced in the U.S any time soon as the backlash from people being told they had to get off their backsides and participate in thier democracy would be enormous – as they say in the states….go figure!
Ron,
thanks for clarifying.
Couldn’t agree more. It’s amazing to me how easily the U.S takes democracy for granted and the laid back attitude they have to voting and the general fragility of democracy – perhaps they need to be ruled by the British again, just to wake em up.
Optimist- that is exactly the point that all the ABO’s are missing. Obama has mobilised an otherwise pretty indifferent electorate to get out and vote.
That is seeing democracy in action, and that is one of the reasons I find his candidacy so amazing. The laziest, most superficial, most consumeristic nation on the planet is showing signs of giving a damn- about politics.
for that alone the guy deserves a medal. And to be POTUS.
229
William Bowe Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
I mean “better” than what you write, Codger. Antony Green, Graeme Orr, Geoff Lambert, Kevin Bonham and Peter Tucker on the one hand, you on the other. Dig?
Better? It’s your constant problem William; but nice try. As I said, you posted; people respond & you moderate, well as you see fit; but the game is where it’s at, not where you think it’s ‘better’.
My point is that: ‘I’ve never written about environmental policy, the Iraq war and the Middle East situation, so why am I moderating discussion about it?’.
& that’s where it’s at…You have to get to grips with that, post,moderate;don’t post.
Simple.
PS thanks Kirri…eccenetric
Ron @ 232 LOL
what a love in non diverse site run by a non long term politcl operative , abit of thought first might help Sometimes you ar better off with your enemies in control
I’m happy to set u a thread , maybe enemys are ‘fairer’ , cetainly get diversity with rules , but would not waste my time having a competing thread , thats counter productive Guys , Catrina is enthusiastic so this is not a personal shot at th lady , but maybe some further discussion
Sorry for being mean, Codger.
Optimist, the argument could be made that the US is more an elected monarchy, and considering the dynastic elements, the near absolute right of the current Prez to break the law with impunity, the notion of democracy is getting a fair workout.
Throw in some severe dumbing down, a complicit press, and non-compulsory voting, and it’s descending into a caricature of a democracy pretty quickly.
Like Jen, I’d like to see Obama’s resurgent grass roots as a sign of new wind, but it’s got to do more than just blow in November to really make a significant difference in that country.
Boy, don’t they need to wake up, and fast.
265
codger
Codge, I meant that in the most endearing sense! LOL
Jen,
I’d rather not get into the ABO’s thing when it comes to compulsory attendance / voting. Don’t get me wrong, I just think that the issue is so much bigger than a single campaign. Besides, I would make the broader point that ultimately, candidates shouldn’t have to mobilise voters.
Also, I thought that if we could get into a substantive issue like this that doesn’t revolve around our respective favourite candidates, William might be reminded that we are capable of a more deeply analytical reflection on electoral matters.
Eeek, just take a look at the shareprice of Fannie Mae:
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=FNM&sid=1899&dist=TQP_chart_date&freq=1&time=9
…it’s what you call in the trade a death spiral.
$70 less than a year ago, and hovering just over $16 tonight.
So much for all the soothing words being pumped out to try and deflect the market..it’s off another 4% at the moment.
Remember folks, this crew holds the securitisation of trillions (yes, TRILLIONS) of bucks worth of US mortgages, and they are in serious trouble.
Start whistling in the dark….
Kirri- I think that’s why we all ( millions around the world- maybe billions) have become so interested in this US election. Obama does represent a change- way bigger than he as an individual can implement, but a reaction from people who are tired of the disappointment that current “Democracy’ offers, and who want to reclaim it.
No one can meet that expectation and hope, but that’s not the point. The real point is that there is an expression of that desire for true democracy from people around the globe, rather than a mute acceptance that nothing can change.
Oh dear, John McCain gets 300 economists to endorse his fantasy economic plan, except for one little oversight:
In interviews with more than a dozen of the signatories, Politico found that, far from embracing McCain’s economic plan, many were unfamiliar with—or downright opposed to—key details. While most of those contacted by Politico had warm feelings about McCain, many did not want to associate themselves too closely with his campaign and its policy prescriptions.
Salon
…so he’s just signed up their names!
Nice one John.
Optimist- can’t help myself. I am so over the “Obama isn’t perfect’ crap that I just wish people could see the bigger picture. No one, not in my life time , has inspired so much interest in the democratic process. Doesn’t really matter what he says if he can mobilise people to vote.
And I get your motivation about us showing our analytic depth and all, but it’s late…
night friends.
273
jen
Yeah, I got that feeling early from Obama; he tapped into the zeitgeist and it was powerful mojo.
Like here, too many years of paternalistic muddling passing for government had raised the expectations and Ruddy tapped into it superbly. Mind you, he’d better start delivering or he’ll be Mr Me Too in more ways than he intended.
These things come in cycles, so no guarantee it’ll make permanent changes, but the first step is to get it happening. The world is about to hit some monumental changes, and if the US is not leading, they’ll sink into irrelevance.
KR @ 269,
damn right.
They need to cut through the idea that they can trust their politicians and their media or alternatively get over the notion that there is no alternative to and no hope of changing the media and politics that exist right now.
To quote one of my all time favourite human beings, Studs Terkel:
“I’ve always felt, in all my books, that there’s a deep decency in the American people and a native intelligence—providing they have the facts, providing they have the information.”
I believe him, but boy oh boy, it’s hard to remember sometimes.
Well it’s goodnight from me, and tomorrow a brave new world in the new bludgertoreum of the able Mistress Catrina, whip in hand, for any miscreants who step out of line!
Oh boy, can’t wait….
Jen,
I hear ya, I really do.
I have been an Obama supporter from the beginning and had many an argument with friends about his chances of winning the nomination (suffice it to say, I’m owed a few drinks). The “Obama isn’t perfect” routine is a boring, self-evident line that reflects the strength of his campaign in that it’s one of the few shots people can throw at him and be right about.
Meh, I say.
Ultimately, I think that the quote from him that appears front and centre on the campaign website says so much…..
“I’m asking you to believe, not just in my ability to bring about real change in Washington…I’m asking you to believe in yours.”
To my mind, its a call to arms, the subtext of which hints at the fact that you can’t simply fall in love with the idea of a candidate, watch him elected and then sit back and expect things to be hunky-dory. It points to the fact that democracy is only really effective if you participate, not just through voting but through a commitment to caring about the issues, informing yourself about them, demanding that you are represented and taking action when you are not getting that representation.
Obama will face enormous opposition to real reform; from lobbyists, from the media, from his own party.
If and when he is elected, any substantial changes he tries to make will only succeed with the vocal support of the peple who put him in the White House.
If those people really believe in their power to change Washington, maybe he really will be what so many people are hoping for.
Bed time now. I’ll be back tomorrow to deal with the comments on my insufferable naivety.
For now, the short answer is….
I refer you to my name.
Site is up and running but I still have a bunch of things to do to get things ready for prime time. Stay tuned for more details.
To all poll bludgers re WILLIAM BOWE’s #237
William Bowe has already set up a NEW US site at #237 for ALL blogers here to contribute/post to It will hav diversity However it will be a non moderator site
Alternatively Catrina wishs to set up a site Yous all have got probabley 24 hours to be NON APATHETIC , before th caste is die-d After that it will be to late , because Catrina probably right now is setting up an alternative site whichprobably will be available from tomorrow
So yous have 3 choices , do nothing and do not post your opinion here of these 2 alternatives , and I suggest the result of your non posting will be Catrina’s site wil be the site , (or post an opinion but do so with corage , and not as an ‘Obama supporter” of the “Obama supporter Catrina”) I will definitively not be a contributor to Catrina’s , simply because whilst she is entusiastic and well meaning , 1/ Catrina factually 2 weeks ago crackd the sh.ts and left the site herself voluntarily over a minor retort from Willliam , so her patience & thick skin is not apparent , and 2/ Catrina is in the bottom 5% of Obama supporters here accepting of diverse views , and 3/ she is an inexperienced non long term politicl operative and yous will get a relatively non diverse ‘love in’ site I will regard ‘promises’ of future fairness as completely unworthy of reply Catrina I understand is liked , as with ChrisG type posts particularly for reporting over nite Dems superdelegate movements past results , but I suggest my 3 points above over weigh that objectively
I believed 2 days ago reading William’s heading comments to this Thread , we would be in this position So I do not mak this post lightley , and certainly do not wish it to be either personal on the lady , because i did in fact post an immediate request after Catrina voluntarily left us, as EC knows for her to return here , and additionally posted a ‘Catrina back’ ditty as well I am simply saying with frankness an intlllectual site needs a certain ‘character’ , and Catrina is not that vs William has ALREADY factually set up a moderation free site available right now , for all opinion diversity’s posters unambiguously welcomed There wil be many happy to see me go permanently , and thats OK , thats there perogative to feel that
Moving on is the sensible easy part of life But what I am suggsting is bloger’s give som prior thought of the two above alternatives , and your posting views to them Now , my #266 and #267 posts was fair dinkum , also offering to set up a US thread as a 3rd alternative , but i did so only to offer a 3rd choice with a moderator , and with diversse oinions being posted My offer was reely only intended to offer an alternativ to Catrina’s , BUT it was not offered necessarily as an altenative to Williams fair offer of his new existing site that he offered in his #237 post I will repost this blog again tomorrow only becaus in the interim , this post may get ‘lost’ in subsequent ChrisB posts with his extensive US news updates Maybe yous will value Wiliam more , when you no longer have him
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PS/ Optimist #280
In the cut & thrust of bloging sites you’d expect the ‘enemies’ retort you almost ‘invited’ ! For months I’ve prodded using various means to elisit an articulation of ‘yes we can’ , & som posters put what I thought was an incomplete picture of what I thought it was , so no use me I thought supplying my ‘answer’ to the oponents , then getting easily shoot down by a retort tht is not what it is ! Blindoptimist’s 5 pointys in #156 is fairly complete however , & what I did actually think was th ‘yes we can’ Although Blind I also thought it incluuded , anti all that is ‘bushism , anti ‘Washington” politc , afirmative ‘black’ etc message to the ununitd US peoples & to the World , and also meant implicit grass root democracy is way & a pollie cares for av peoples problams Seeing my unlikely long tenure here , thought may as well throw out all the ammo of the visons bit , which is above both the specific policys directions , the detailed modelling philo policy areas & the guys character/judgement , so I went upwards at that visions bit , not downwads , but all are important & also separately interrelated (that I never addressed as no complete visions were posted) , and with even the visions I think some fine , som disagree , some not practicle
The US Thread Continues …
The site is up and running. Still some things to deal with that I’ll comment on later (more techo stuff than anything else). Two posts are up – one is next Open Thread dealing with the general election and the other is the rationale statement which includes some hints about policy and procedure (but to tell you the truth I’ll still grappling with the technology to get this sorted – but at least we have a thread to discuss issues and opinions as to how we manage this thing).
http://pollbludger.wordpress.com/
WOW thanks Catrina. Great news US blog.
Oh yeah blogging with Catrina is going to be as objective as blogging on the official Obama blog.
Reading the collective repetitive wisdom of Chris B, Kirri R, Jen and Catrina would be like living through groundhog day at an Enver Hoxha appreciation Society meeting – Yuk!.
285
Edward StJohn
For someone who’s never backed a winner you’re sure full of yourself Eddy. But always quick to tell us how friggin’ superior you think you are.
Good luck, and goodbye.
Oh it’ll be a hoot – Lord of the Flies with Kirri R and Catrina. I wonder who will get devoured first?
287
It might surprise you Eddy that NOT everyone is as twisted as you.
But you stick to your version of reality and go off and find another group to attach yourself too and then spend nearly every post goading or insulting or generally being a creep.
That’s what you’re good at.
bye
Ahhh, you horrible people setting up a new US thread at wordpress. The department’s productivity may skyrocket, but i don’t like it!
You really lack a sense of humour Kirri. It is a common affliction for most trots.
Cheers,
EStJ
290 Nah, Eddy, I’ve got a fine sense of humour, you just ain’t funny, just twisted. There’s a difference. So whenever anybody calls your bluff you come on with these inane generalisations and names, like ‘trot’, as if that fools anybody.
You need help.
To all poll bludgers re WILLIAM BOWE’s #237
William Bowe has already set up a NEW US site at #237 for ALL blogers here to contribute/post to It will hav diversity However it will be a non moderator site
Alternatively Catrina has set up a site Yous all have got probabley 24 hours to be NON APATHETIC , before th caste is die-d , because one of those 2 sites will die
So yous have 3 choices , do nothing and do not post your opinion here of these 2 alternatives , and I suggest the result of your non posting will be Catrina’s site wil be the site , because the one line posters who have dominated this site will make the decsion for you , you will then have no choice , (or you can post an opinion with courage , and not as an ‘Obama supporter” of the “Obama supporter Catrina”) I will definitively not be a contributor to Catrina’s , simply because whilst she is entusiastic and well meaning , 1/ Catrina factually 2 weeks ago crackd the sh.ts and left the site herself voluntarily over a minor retort from Willliam , so her patience & thick skin is not apparent , and 2/ Catrina is in the bottom 5% of Obama supporters here accepting of diverse views , and 3/ she is an inexperienced non long term politicl operative and yous will get a relatively non diverse ‘love in’ site I will regard ‘promises’ of future fairness as completely unworthy of reply Catrina I understand is liked , as with ChrisG type posts particularly for reporting over nite Dems superdelegate movements past results , but I suggest my 3 points above over weigh that objectively
I believed 2 days ago reading William’s heading comments to this Thread , we would be in this position So I do not mak this post lightley , and certainly do not wish it to be either personal on the lady , because i did in fact post an immediate request after Catrina voluntarily left us, as EC knows for her to return here , and additionally posted a ‘Catrina back’ ditty as well I am simply saying with frankness an intlllectual site needs a certain ‘character’ , and Catrina is not that vs William has ALREADY factually set up a moderation free site available right now , for all opinion diversity’s posters unambiguously welcomed There wil be many happy to see me go permanently , and thats OK , thats there perogative to feel that Moving on is the sensible easy part of life But what I am suggsting is bloger’s give som prior thought of the two above alternatives , and your posting views to them Now , my #266 and #267 posts was fair dinkum , also offering to set up a US thread as a 3rd alternative , but i did so only to offer a 3rd choice with a moderator , and with diversse oinions being posted My offer was reely only intended to offer an alternativ to Catrina’s , BUT it was not offered necessarily as an altenative to Williams fair offer of his new existing site that he offered in his #237 post I will repost this blog again tomorrow only becaus in the interim , this post may get ‘lost’ in subsequent ChrisB posts with his extensive US news updates Maybe yous will value Wiliam more , when you no longer have him
Yo ho ho -why not? Is there a particular problem with Wordpress?
Ron-
according to William’s site he is all for Catrina setting up a new one in preference to his, so i think you’ve lost the argument, buddy.
Ron, Catrina is indicating that the new site won’t be moderated as such, just as the threads on this site weren’t really moderated. I would ask you not to think of it as Catrina’s site and at least give it a chance.
A political forum for quarrelsome Australians who presume to understand what’s going on in America
William Bowe LMAO
296
But I didn’t get an answer to my post at 252 on that one! LOL
I still don’t understand the rudeness directed at we US thread posters. Having dipped into the OZ thread to check ythings out I feel we are most unfairly maligned – classic case of projection methinks.
Jen, I don’t think you have any idea how aggravating it is to deservedly tick somebody off for posting 12 comments in three minutes, and then have to suffer three full days of snarling, whining and bitching about it. Post-November 24, that kind of thing has only been happening to me on the US threads.
William,
I thought the laissez faire approach worked well for what it is worth but when the loudhailers came out it was overwhelmed.
William – I didn’t mean you (i get why you get fed up with us). It’s more the comments from the dropins from the Oz site where I have read soem pretty toxic stuff.
Anyway – never fear . We are off to annoy Catrina now!
Hope you visit occasionally.
Yes, as in economics, laissez-faire is probably the lesser of the available evils.
Sorry Jen, thought you were referring to my headline on the Blogspot site.
Anyway, things seem to be ticking over nicely at the new site, so no point keeping this going. Thanks for the memories all …