The latest Morgan face-to-face survey, combining polling conducted over the previous two weekends, shows Labor’s two-party lead down slightly to 59-41 from 61-39 in the previous survey. Their primary vote is down 3.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent, but the Coalition is up only 1 per cent to 35 per cent. The balance has gone to Family First and independent/others.
The Courier-Mail also reports on a Newspoll survey conducted for Griffith University’s Federalism Project showing “almost one in five” believe the states should be abolished, and “only one in three people in Queensland wants the status quo of federal, state and local government to remain”. More from Griffith University’s Socio-Legal Research Centre.
285 Comments
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I have no criticism of Kevin Rudd,he is doing an excellent job in his 6 months at the helm.
ESJ,what criticism do you have of John Howard and Dr Nelson?
I believe that Bushfirebill is too harsh and expecting too much from Rudd. He is over critical and has forgotten what happened to Whitlam when he tried to do everything at one go, all the pent up frustration of being in opposition for 23 years.
There is enough BS from the idiots out there telling us that he has so many broken promises and what a liar Rudd is that I should add to all that would be ridiculous.
If those who don’t support Rudd would debate issues instead of Rudd then maybe just maybe people who support Rudd can find faults with some policies.
Rudd the PM is doing a great job Internationally and at home. Policy wise he, with the help of Swan, brought out a budget which for the moment has the RB leaving interest rates steady for the last few months. He has set in motion for Australia to get it self ready for ETS, with further reports from Wong and Garnaut. Pensioners have had the utility bonus set in stone, increased the fortnightly pension and also changed the way increases where to be assessed.
I also see the banks are increasing interest rates outside of the RB rates. This just further diminishes the myth about Howard keeping interest rates at record lows, as the Banks where borrowing overseas at lower interest rates that they could borrow at the RB rates.That is why interest rates were so low.
Muski, I actually quite specifically mentioned Whitlam and a NOT being a model for Rudd (and I mentioned Keating as well).
I wasn’t advocating a mad panic of action and policy innovation.
I was advocating a clarifying speech (or series of them) that informed us of where this ETS thing was going to leave us in the next decade.
Are we going to be huddled masses that have gone back to horse and buggies because petrol is too expensive? Clinging to life in ghost towns in the far west as the drought hits hard? Unemployed because our staple industries like digging coal out of the ground have been cruelly abolished? And all this while the world laughs at us for being mugs for believing this Global Warming guff?
Or are we to be a progressive country that uses smaller cars and alternative fuels? Are out great towns of the west going to find new life as solar electricity fuelled centers of excellence? Are new industries to spring up, demonstrating our adaptability and triumph over the problems facing us? And all this while the world envies us, purchases our technology and wishes they’d had our foresight in acting soon?
No mad scramble.
Just the message that we can do better if we realise that a change in attidude and goals could be a good thing.
Paul Daley in The Age has this to say about a possible Costello resurgence:
“…much stronger than Kevin, and wipes the floor with Swannie”. Ho, hum…
They’re talking about performance in QT, mainly.
Costello’s main “strength” was his ability to craft an ascerbically witty one-liner in QT when he had the Speaker to protect him.
If ever there was a gutless wonder who needed a nobbled ref to prosper, it’s Peter Costello.
Please, oh please Libs, stop being teh stupid and draft Pistol Pete.
#84 – Progressive: Your friends are on an amateur island full of legal minefields. No publisher, no editorial and moderation policies, and post at your own risks. Wow, the road to hell is paved with good intentions and empty pockets.
Finns,
Just re read my copy of Orwell’s “Animal Farm”. Seems like a template to me.
102 “I also see the banks are increasing interest rates outside of the RB rates. This just further diminishes the myth about Howard keeping interest rates at record lows, as the Banks where borrowing overseas at lower interest rates that they could borrow at the RB rates.That is why interest rates were so low.”
Muskiemp, it seems that Costello was stretching the truth a little here too to make himself look like a better performer.
“NAB was forced to make the disclosure as part of its underwriting agreement for the dividend reinvestment scheme. It also contradicts a reassurance from former federal treasurer Peter Costello last year that no Australian banks had exposures to the the CDO market in the US.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24006310-643,00.html
Ther is an interesting piece here on the CDO market and the riskiness of the insurance methods for these markets.
http://aussiefinancewatch.blogspot.com/
LOL MuskieKemp I hope you can maintain the faith.
BB and Steve,
So Costello didn’t know what the Banks were up to. We can only hope that the coalition draft Costello to lead the opposition LOL
So the question remains if the Australian banks were all away in international markets taking advantage of cheaper global interest rates, what did the three financial regulators under the control of Costello, the RBA, APRA and the ACCC do to ensure these funds were properly insured?
http://www.wallstreet-consulting.com/course.php?course_id=50
http://www.risk.net/public/showPage.html?page=printer_friendly_risknet&print=468527
ESJ
Not hard at all
Bushfire @ 104,
Agree with you that some people are exaggerating Costello’s capabilities.
However, I think his prospects are really quite clear:
If there’s a recession, or close to it, he becomes pretty electable. The line is simple, “things were better when John and I ran the show”, and it will be hard for Labor to counter. Unemployment, inflation and interest rates (much more than a relatively abstract measure such as GDP growth) will be the electoral keys.
On the other hand, if (as anyone sane hopes) the economy keeps going pretty well, Costello would be better advised not to try to become PM.
If I were him, I’d be sitting back for about another year, I think, to see what happens.
112 “If I were him, I’d be sitting back for about another year, I think, to see what happens.”
Dyno, that is what he has done for ever and it has got him nowhere yet.
Exactly what he did with financial oversight and as soon as he leaves the banks tell us they have to put up rates to cover losses that he claimed didn’t exist.
#112, Dyno,
The longer Cossie hangs out, the firmer the perception will be that he has no ticker to go out and fight for the things he wants. The perception is already very strong that he wants everything on a plate for him. I think the punters have already passed him by.
He was handed the Leadership on a plate after the election Dyno and turned up his nose at the idea.
So Rudd swears?
Oh dear, I guess I can never vote for him again!
And I sense a few anti-Obama people having a hissy fit because they weren’t invited over to the new board LOL
Agree that the punters have passed him by, which is exactly why I think only a recession can save his PM aspirations.
But if there is a recession, with all the pain that brings, I think many of the affected voters won’t care if Costello has spent the last little while filing his nails – he’ll be saleable as the Treasurer when times were good.
You mean ‘a recession we have to have’ just to make Costello electable, now that is a novel idea.
The problem the Libs have and especially Costello is when to skewer the Howard legacy. Too many of the incumbent Libs are pining for the good old days on not getting on with creating a vision for a future Liberal Government.
Both Howard and Costello are in the “mist” of writing their views about the Government years. Costello needs to decide whether to go for broke and really do over the old man’s legacy and thereby promote himself as the beacon of economic reason in a sea of spendthrift socialism. Or he can remain as servile and obsequious as he has to date.
I expect Howard to show all the love, consideration and modesty regarding his years in power. No doubt, he will provide feint prasie to his Treasurer but readers will be left in no doubt about Costello’s prevarication, disloyalty and lack of bottle. Not the sort of man that should be running the country?
Personally, I think Costello should go for it now and take a chance for once in his life. Until someone wins the battle of the past, then the Libs have no future.
#116 – have you heard of the Groucho Marx’s doctrine?
GG I wouldn’t hold my breathe waiting for any risk taking either in the memoirs or in pursuit of the leadership. The risk taking has been left to others like the big banks and Brenda. Anyway, who writes their political memoirs and then strikes out on a higher political agenda?
steve,
Most politicians these days have a biography published prior to ascencion to power. I suppose it’s a part of the getting to know you “shtick” with the electorate. I reckon Costello can paint a convincingly positive summary of his career to date and use that to launch an assault on the “PM summit”.
Costello will not take the leadership and will resign later this year… period
“Pope’s plane arrives in Darwin”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24012475-29277,00.html
Oh the irony!
Dyno #117:
Sorry, but that doesn’t make sense. Someone who can run an economy when times are good is no use when times are bad.
And a lot of people know that.
Dyno, you certainly have a patronising view of the Australian people. I mean, I know they’re a bit thick at times, and there’s a bit of a herd mentality going on occasion, but to think that they would believe Costello can solve a recession all by himself because he’s never been Treasurer in a recession, or because magically things will turn around just because he’s there, is treating them like total morons.
I don’t think we will go into recession, but if we do, the high interest rate policies pursued by Costello in the last term will be one reason why we got there.
He should’ve been cutting spending when he increased it, but of course he had an election to try and buy.
104 BB
It is amazing where these reporters like Peter Daley get their information from. A vague reference to “several senior ministers” is frustrating. While reporters protect their sources so that they can get more info some other time, the resultant very vague-ness of their report really regulates it to the level of gossip over the back fence.
I agree that Costello, who seemed to try to copy Keating in Parliament, needed the whole armory of the Gov’t behind him to give him the courage to make his cutting statements. But Keating had real guts. Perhaps Costello has a an inkling of his limitations which maybe is why he has never seriously tried to be PM.
His economic credentials(which are now shown to have a lot of defects) were obtained in amazingly good times by Global factors not under his control. All these factors seemed to be in line in order to give him a remarkably good run. He has had no experience at all in managing a recession in Globally adverse conditions. I doubt if he would have the heart for it.
Keating on the other hand managed the economy in very trying times and was prepared to do the hard yards politically for it. He did much good for the economy and built its foundations for the present times.
I doubt if Costello would want to be PM during a recession under adverse conditions. In that situation of course he would not be Treasurer but he would still have to wear the political consequences. He wouldn’t have the heart.
I truly hope Costello gets the leadership. He is so disliked it can only increase the chances of the further demise of the Libs.
He is too gutless to take the leadership. He avoided the leadership in 1995, 2001, 2005, 2006, and twice in 2007.
He is on the public record saying that he thought the coalition was going to lose the 2007 election for the entirety of that year, but did nothing to stop it. Those are the actions of someone unfit to lead a party, let alone a country.
All the criticisms that I have read about Costello on this thread so far are well founded and justified. However Bludgers, it may well be wise to save your energies for the time being.
Cossie will get the leadership and his timing with the support of big business will be similar to the period of when Howard and Rudd became leaders in their term of opposition.
As I have said before, he will be given the MOTHER of all honeymoons, all expenses paid by the MSM. So it is going to be up to intelligent commentry on blogs like this to expose its propaganda.
As for Straightbull, he knows it, so may well decide to make a move before that happens.
If I have any criticisms so far of the PM’s performance, it is that Labor did not defend fuelwatch as much and did not attack Brenda’s economically irresponsible populist excise cut.
Otherwise – super!
130 Centre
Costello and big business – pull the other one. Big business and the LP is as mythical as Unions and the ALP. Sure there are some businesses that support the LP strongly, but I believe Peter Martin had an entry comparing business donations that showed a lot of favour toward the ALP. The big banks have been strongly anti-Costello for some time, and by the middle of last year were not shy in saying it either. Business is very much beholden to the banks at present.
Costello and big ‘carbon’ business I could believe, but that’s got a limited lifespan, and any business with enough international exposure knows things have to change here for them to remain long term competitive.
Costello and the press – I can definitely believe that, and it might actually be the best of both worlds. Polling this year suggests the Australian public have little respect for the press – so the press firmly behind a substance-free Costello might be just like one used-car-salesman telling you another used-car-salesman is giving you a good deal.
Sure – some people will fall for it.
onimod, who do you think unions vote for, regardless? And who do you think big business is going to vote for, regardless?
As for business donations? That’s like a tax evader giving to charity.
I still think Captain Smirk will retire from politics by October!
Howard and Costello, you’ll remember, before the election were warning of an approaching global “tsunami”. They implied, at times outright stated, that the electorate shouldn’t dare to vote Labor when the economic outlook looks uncertain.
Well, we did of course, indicating one or more of the following:
*) the electorate considered the Coalition inexperienced to “manage” the economy in uncertain times
*) the electorate did not trust the Coalition to do the right thing by them when times get tough
*) the electorate preferred a Labor government in office during difficult economic conditions
None of this bodes well for the gutless wonder Costello if a recession should arrive. He’s also weighted down by his failed record on interest rates and inflation, and of course his Industrial Relation extremism.
The government could dig up some juicy media stories where good ole Pete advocates wage cuts for workers, abolition of all forms of protection from Unfair Dismissal, and other nasties designed to put the working class “in their place”. Friend of the workers – he is not.
He was always a poor poll performer when in government. Absence will not make the heart grow fonder.
Centre, most of the union people I know vote Green, but perhaps that’s a Tassie thing.
The pope is staying down the road from where I am. Will I go and rub him out?
Only kidding.
Costello is on the record advocating a “work will set you free” model for IR policy that makes Workchoices appear benevolent.Considering that the HR Nicholls (Costello’s creation) was the idelogical imperative behind Workchoices, I think Julia and Kevin would relish his return. Costello is a could-ave-been souffle!
Which unions are you referring to? If the Greens had their way every CFMEU member would end up unemployed in ten years. The Greens oppose wood chipping because they say the wood chips just end up in Japan where they are turned into paper, so when the Government endorses a plan for a pulp mill they oppose that too. Their policies don’t make sense.
Centre
Given that corporations don’t vote as such…
I don’t think big business does vote LP regardless.
Who did the unions vote for in Tasmania in 2004?
I think there are correlations, but the old ideological battlegrounds are evaporating by the day.
The Fibs don’t do factions well, that is not to say they don’t have them. There is one faction that is almost half of the parliamentary Fibs. It used to be the ABC – anyone but costello – it is now – ABT anyone but turnbull.
If Tip decided to run for leader it would either ensure that Brenda remains or produce an even more Conservative leader – Tony Abbott?
Woo hoo, the Pope is here!
God bless the Pope!
Swan is the luckiest Treasurer he has no debt to contend with.
I hope Costello does become PM, he’ll be a great PM. For now he should stay out of the spotlight, out of sight out of mind, let Rudd and co get some dirt on them.
137
Centre Says:
July 13th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
The pope is staying down the road from where I am. Will I go and rub him out?
Nah, just give him some pigrub–marijuana
JoM
The Federal Govt. has about $50 billion worth of debt. Costello always said “no NET debt”.
Not to mention private debt.
142 JoM
No debt?
*Just* 4.something inflation? Subprime credit mess? US declining into rabid recession? An ETS to bed down, etc etc?
all tip had to do was sell $250Bn to retire $90Bn debt, a fair swag of it Treasurer Howard’s debt????
BB @ 125
“Dyno, you certainly have a patronising view of the Australian people.”
Que?
I have no doubt that what Paul Daley is reporting is true, that some Labor ministers have told him they fear Costello being elected to the Lib leadership.
If I was a Labor minister, I’d be making exactly the same non-attributable comments to the media, in the hope they get a run.
The more leadership confusion within the Liberals, the better for Labor. Labor will pump up Costello as much as possible, to help its own cause.
Having said that, I can’t see why Costello couldn’t lead the Libs again in the future, if he wants to (I’m not sure that he does though). John Howard was written off a few times before he came back to lead the Coalition into power. Menzies came back after defeat and a period in the wilderness.
When a party tries a succession of leaders, without success, it’s natural they’d fall back on someone with eperience. Labor kept doing it with Beazley.
Antonio @ 147,
All of what you say makes sense.
And, of course, Costello doesn’t really want the job of Opposition Leader – that’s why he made his statement on 25 November.
But if he thought he could be PM – sure, it’s conceivable that he could give it a go.
#148
Yes, and if Costello doesn’t announce his departure from politics before the end of this year, you can be sure he hasn’t ruled out being drafted back into the leadership. He’ll be keen to give the impression that he doesn’t want it, that he’d only do it for the good of the party. He’d probably wait till Turnbull was tried and failed, before being drafted. As others have pointed out, the Libs can still win the next election if the economy goes into recession, which is not entirely out of the question, irrespective of how Labor runs it.
Still, though, I think Costello is probably just hanging in to finish his autobiography, then will bail out. He’s probably enjoying seeing his family more.
I had to copy ‘n paste this one from the Cyprus Sunday Mail.
The DOWNER is mentioned here.
Christofias tight-lipped over Downer’s appointment
By Alexia Saoulli
UN Secretary-general special adviser on the Cyprus problem, Alexander Downer, has an auxiliary role to play in the Cyprus issue, President Demetris Christofias said yesterday.
Commenting on Downer’s appointment, which was announced on Friday, at Larnaca airport before his departure for Paris where he will participate at the EU summit for the Mediterranean, Christofias said that the former Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs would be judged by his actions.
He said Secretary-general Ban Ki-Moon’s intentions were well known, and added that each and every one “will be judged by his action and his productivity”.
Furthermore Christofias expressed the belief that the UN and its officials could play a positive role in the joint efforts towards a Cyprus settlement based on the Security Council resolutions.
The president added that the Greek Cypriot side would evaluate the progress or work being done by the technical committees and working groups ahead of his July 25 meeting with Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat. During the meeting he would express the Greek Cypriot side’s estimation and opinion on the matter, he added.
This month’s meeting is the fourth since Christofias’ election in February. It is a review of the progress achieved at discussions between Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot experts on various aspects of the Cyprus question, including territory, governance, the economy and property. The leaders will decide whether direct negotiations between them can begin.
Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2008
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