Comments on: Westpoll: 53-47 to Labor in WA

By: John Kemp

John Kemp — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 13:05:25 +0000

Bra Snapping, chair sniffing Trasurer would be a tragic way for West Australia to go. This time around, Mr Barnett has the job he wanted on his own terms, but a by-election in Cottesloe is considered a certainty if Labor wins Saturday’s election. Labor has been so successful building railways all over Perth. Improving and extending Freeways. Building new hospitals and schools.
Mr Barnet was responsible for selling Alinta Gas and introducing individual workplace agreements. Now he wants to mine uranium with no care for the miners that would have to inhale the deadly radon gas which would also kill all those local communities that dwell on the outskirts of these uranium mines. These communities would be no different than Wittenoon where Asbestos was mined.

By: jasmine

jasmine — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 07:28:59 +0000

Interesting Bird, and I’m hesitant to indulge in ‘the libs will never be fit to govern’ but regardless of the number of seats the Libs need to have the members in the house to find a leadership and contest the next election.

I’m foolishly perhaps assuming even Colin sans canal can’t actually win Government for them this time; and there is the small matter of him not being leader and not having pre-selection for them to work out.

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 16:42:18 +0000

Bird, Churchlands is “independent versus Labor” because the Liberals finished third and Labor second in 2005, but this was because people who normally vote Liberal voted for Constable instead. There’s no question it would have been a Liberal seat if not for Constable. The three booths that are “black” on my Scarborough map were won by the Liberals at the federal election by 67-33 (Woodlands), 56-44 (Doubleview) and 51-49 (Scarborough). Antony Green determined Liberal-versus-Labor results for Churchlands by using a preference split of about 60-40 for Constable’s votes: I’m not sure whether this is based on a ballot paper study or educated guess work.

By: Bird of paradox

Bird of paradox — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:06:41 +0000

Terry Redman, surely?

I’ve been looking over the 2008 pendulum… with 38 Labor MP’s out of 59, it already looks pretty good for them, but it could be even better, and really bad for the Libs. Here’s the seats I reckon the Libs could lose, at least if Buswell’s the leader at the election:

Kalamunda: It’s pretty narrow on the calculated figues (0.2%), so any swing is gonna give that to Labor. Same reason I think Labor will (notionally) keep Kingsley and the new Darling Range.

Dawesville: That’s become pretty narrow too, and Kim Hames has supported Buswell so he won’t be getting much love.

Albany and Geraldton: Both of these are regional cities with surounding farmland added in, so they’re notionally Liberal seats (after redistribution) with sitting Labor MP’s. I reckon Labor should ‘hold’ them, although that depends on how well the Nats do / if they have a candidate in Geraldton.

Scarborough: This one’s new, and according to the map on its page, it’s half Carine (good for Labor, apparently) and half Churchlands (really good for Liz Constable, vs Labor), so I can’t see why it’s on the Liberal side of the page.

Kalgoorlie: Always been Labor except for Matt Birney, and he’s going, so they’ll possibly lose it. Whether to Labor or to John Bowler, that’ll be interesting… there’s plenty of people running in that seat.

Vasse: wouldn’t that be cool to watch? I’m tipping Bernie Masters if he runs, especially if Omodei does too (more preferences not going Buswell’s way).

Nedlands: Sue Walker’s an independent these days, and I think she might keep her seat.

Blackwood-Stirling: It’s marked as Liberal, but I bet Terry Redman’ll win it for the Nationals.

Moore: This’ll be interesting. It’s made from all of Moore, (Libs got most votes there last time, Nats came third), half of Greenough (same, but the Nats came second and therefore won), and some of Merredin (there’s no numbers on that map, but I’m guessing the Dalwallinu / Perenjori region’s pretty good for the Nats). I’m tipping Grant Woodhams.

So if all those happen, it’d end up as: Labor 44, Liberals 7, Nationals 4, independents 4 (Constable and Woollard, plus Walker and Masters). Absolute murder for the Libs, and not so bad for the Nats as it could have been.

Any thoughts on all of that, folks?

By: Bernie Masters

Bernie Masters — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 04:09:48 +0000

Oops, Freudian slip there, Bird of paradox! Sorry

By: Bernie Masters

Bernie Masters — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 04:09:00 +0000

Thanks for the comment, Bird of paradise. The Nationals will probably run a candidate but they don’t have anyone with a positive and high profile to call upon that I’m aware of. The previous Nationals candidate Beryle Morgan got 10% of the vote and I believe she was grooming Busselton Shire councillor Ann Ryan to take her place in this coming election. Only problem is that Ryan had an adverse finding made against her by the CCC over the Smith’s Beach fiasco.
Paul Omodei may run but, if I was in his shoes, I’d be helping my (i.e. Paul’s) mate and endorsed Liberal candidate Wade de Campo to try to win the seat of Blackwood Stirling which now looks like it’ll go to the Nationals’ Kim Redman.

By: Bird of paradox

Bird of paradox — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:01:42 +0000

Do it. The more independent MP’s the better, I reckon. (I had the pleasure of voting for Janet Woollard last time around… it’s nice to be able to cast a meaningful vote for a non-major party). And Buswell needs the boot. As long as Mrs Masters lets you, go for it.

Are the Nationals running down there this time? That might affect the result as much as the vote in Margaret River. So would Paul Omodei, if he runs.

By: Bernie Masters

Bernie Masters — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:34:38 +0000

Yes, I am seriously considering standing against Buswell as an independent. I still have to convince my wife it’s a good idea, as she graciously gave me up for 8 years while I was previously the Vasse MP. What makes the contest more interesting this time around is:
* Buswell is very much on the nose, especially with female voters
* he beat me by just 209 votes last time when he had everything going for him, including Liberal endorsement and Busselton Shire presidency
* this time, the enlarged seat takes in Margaret River where the Liberal primary vote at the 2005 election was 37% compared to a combined ALP plus Greens vote of 52% so this would be a difficult box for Buswell to win.
* the West (which really must be seen as the major news organisation in WA) isn’t too keen on the Carpenter government’s track record, so it won’t be enthusiastic for either Liberal or Labor at the next election, suggesting that independents should get sympathetic treatment.
I hear that October 11 or 18 are Carpenter’s preferred election dates, so, if I do decide to stand, the decision has got to be in the next 3 or 4 weeks.
Any comments or reaction?

By: Frank Calabrese

Frank Calabrese — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 08:29:38 +0000

Ok - so who saw the chatter in today’s West about recycling Colin Barnett for the leadership? Better than Buswell - sure but given that he’s retiring… what’s the point?

Are they trying to do a “John Howard” type of resurrection with the hope of “Colin and his Canal being the saviours of the Liberal Party?

I’m sorry, but since they don’t have their playmates in the Nationals, plus 1 vote 1 value – methinks they’re doomed to oblivion.

By: jasmine

jasmine — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 06:11:15 +0000

Colin would promise to serve a full term and would do jokes about abandoning the canal … it could be a close and interesting election raising the standards of politics and governance in WA yet (yes I know I’m dreaming).