Newspoll shows Labor maintaining its 55-45 two-party lead from last fortnight. Kevin Rudd has gained a point and Brendan Nelson lost one on the question of preferred leader, Rudd now leading 65 per cent to 14 per cent.
UPDATE: The Australian has not published a graphic this time, but you can read all about it at the Newspoll site. The paper also reports on an Essential Research survey on emissions trading, but we are told only that “58 per cent of Coalition voters believe Australia should take action even if other countries do not”, while “only 25 per cent of the 1700 voters polled believed Australia should act only when other major economies agreed to do so”. The West Australian has also published results on the subject from last week’s Westpoll survey of 400 respondents in WA, showing “two-thirds of the poll’s respondents agree that a carbon trading regime should be introduced according to the Prime Minister’s timetable”. However, 69 per cent believe the US, China and India “would need to adopt their own trading schemes if Kevin Rudd’s plan for an Australian ETS by 2010 was to be effective”, and “47 per cent of respondents were not prepared to pay more for petrol”.
UPDATE 2: Full report from Essential Research here. It includes a 59-41 result on federal voting intention based on two weeks of data, with a 3 per cent shift denoting that the week past was quite a lot better for the Coalition than a fortnight ago. There were also questions on the Catholic Church’s response to child abuse by priests and religious affiliation in general. Results were obtained from a targeted online panel of 1013 respondents.
844 Comments
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They’ll probably win anyway. Does anyone think a modern Australian Government at any level can last longer than 16 years? If Labor wins that will be 20 years in power. I just can’t see that happening.
Well, 2011 is a long way off, but at this stage the most likely way in which the Libs could lose the next NSW election is by getting rid of O’Farrell and replacing him with a brain-dead candidate from the far Right. Which could happen.
Hockey is a better candidate than O’Farrell, but they shouldn’t need him at this rate.
Hockey Joe could work well with Rudd IMHO.
501 ShowON, true.
But Hockey would be a tap in put for the LIbs, as opposed the the make-able one from 2 meters.
I think Labor’s best chance is for them to sell of the power assets ASAP. Then they will have money to spend on infrastructure that won’t decline in value when carbon trading comes in.
True.
Labor in NSW looks gonskis but one can never underestimate the NSW Liberals. Lots of dead wood rolling around the back of the truck in that show.
Has anyone heard any more about Nelson’s proposed trip from Sydney to Brisbane with a truckie?
508
Grog
If Dolly Downer went too it would be the Traveling Dillberries.
Oh Oh – Charlie Manson (509) has come back!
True ESJ. If Hockey wants to seriously think about his future he should switch. If he stays in federal, there will be distrust, backstabbing and losing elections. If he switches, he will have a united party, win an election and be a successful leader.
I would for sure.
511 was in reply to 507.
With a Slim Dusty soundtrack KR…
Sorry to be off topic but…
Is there some weird PB ruling that has occurred that says that those of us who wanted to discuss US politics could no longer engage in local politics?
William – set us straight, or this argument could continue indefinitely, and I’m sure the whole idea for you was that it wouldn’t.
ESJ – WTF would you refer to Kirribilli Removals as Charles Manson?
Re: NSW Liberals,
As a swinging voter,I prefer O’Farrell over Iemma and can’t understand why he isn’t getting a better/higher profile. Am sure he is having to deal with the same backroom boys that destroyed John Brogden,yet he comes across as down-to-earth,and is much more impressive in person than his TV image.
I haven’t voted Lib since the days of Fred Chaney and Ian McPhee and while O’Farrell is not in their league,he nevertheless is a safer pair of hands than Labour at the moment.
IMHO
Anybody who does a Lateline interview and admits to being mum and dad’s “mistake” is a bit of a goose. Last man standing is our Barry.
Squeaky too!
ShowsOn
There is alot of confidence worldwide in ETS , however like any ‘market’ of products there can be distortions , flaws and abuses or simply moving production to either less developed countries or less regulated ones Then on the other hand you mention taxes on cigarettes & petrol & alcolholl thats supposed to reduce consumption , but i see little evidence of that beiing achieved So I’m cautous about ETS on both grounds particlarly given 2020 leaves little room timewise for an alternative/add on to be implemented Of course then there is the question of the quantum & quality of the needed ‘oz’ or world regulation and also the asumption ‘oz’ or world ‘business’ are not ‘creative’ in somewhat defeating govt’s bureauocracy The economic model is fine but lots of ‘voluntary’ partisipation against business’s/’peoples self interest
Then i wonder , why is the public still happy today , and why is business still happy today , and why News Ltd somewhat ‘mooted’ where is the outrage of some group complaining about the cost inpost Is everyone so mature or 2010 to far away , my sense is the expectation was the hammer impact was going to reelly hurt , and it would have been accepted Would have referred some complimentary direct hits & in the open on poluters/some industries 7 then Penny go out & sell some reel pain
Well said Ron 518. More Bush rhetoric than Churchill in the ETS?
# 501 “Does anyone think a modern Australian Government at any level can last longer than 16 years? If Labor wins that will be 20 years in power. I just can’t see that happening.”
Fair comment but never under estimate the loony right to keep the fibs out of power again in nsw. Last election all they had to do was stand upright and just LOOK the part. But no way. Another loss.
Next time – labor in power federally normally means fibs in power in nsw – but I would only put your money on it – 2011 is a long way out and the fibs have such perfection in making gooses of themselves – to wit our own “fast eddie”.
Can the exclusive brotherhood keep their collective mouths shut and branch stacking very quite that long ? maybe – bet only with others money
Rather that ‘goose-ishness’ ,surely ,than the conniving bruvvers there at the moment ?
Yep,squeaky….but then it is a thin field, and Hockey may not be keen to step into State politics unless he can be assured of winning the top job.
#514 jen, it was your mate Progressive:
that came here and slagged on us. dont you dare play innocent.
and i meant to add toafter direct hits’ on polluting indutries /pproducts , a serious offset profgram to change habits to alternatives and to R &D
Sparks will fly at Q&A. Marr and Dolly are sitting next to each other and the body language says they cant stand it.
haven’t got TV nearby , has dolly got th black stockings on ?
Hey dwalfy @ 518, just a pollie like BHO eh…butterflying on…tst tst; so who do we shoot first Ron/ron?
Take taxes off alcohol and cigarettes and see what happens to consumption!
I hope the wackos do something to keep Labor in. But if Dr of People Skill’s, and frog rights activist is right, it seems that the NSW factions are trying to find a truce in the lead up to the election:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,23965352-5013480,00.html
Labor has been in power in NSW for about 40 of the ears since 1940. That is a great record. The fact is that NSW Labor just tends to get a lot of better candidates than the NSW Liberals. A lot of the good NSW Liberals end up in the federal parliament where they tend to be in government more often than not.
Amigo Ronnie, no black stocking but it has a red stocking like blackdrop. curious.
500 Centre & the NW rail line
Sorry mate – it’s very unlikely to be finished within a decade.
I reckon there’ll be a disconnected jump in car technology, but if you really want to safeguard yourself against plummeting property in non-serviced areas, you should have a serious look at moving.
These triggers are designed to cause action. The later you act the more it costs – it’s a familiar theme.
It’s your choice, but state liberal won’t be much help. Albanese will deal most states out of the infrastructure you need for precisely the reasons you’re thinking of voting liberal. Lobbying Canberra is your best alternative – there is some chance yours could be one of the earlier projects – but it’s one of many.
483
ShowsOn
Good post, and covered most of what I was about to say. Funny isn’t it how ’selectively’ some people pick their generalisations. (Ironic paradox?)
We tax all sorts of anti-social behaviour from speeding in cars to gambling, not enough to actually stop people doing it mind you, but it’s an easy source of revenue when it’s what people want to do to themselves (like smoking).
But seriously, there is nothing wrong with the concept of whacking a tax on it and letting the market play around with it. That will undoubtedly work as long as the price is significant. Otherwise it’s window dressing.
But of course this is only to promote the more expensive green alternatives, and you’re right, technology will flourish (and is) wherever the totally colossal investment (public and private) into the hydrocarbon based technologies is even slightly restrained.
It would not take much to level this playing field, or at least tilt it a long way in the right direction. But the new paradigm won’t get much of a chance until government bites the bullet, and they won’t bite the bullet until we bite them on the bum. It’s that simple.
So squibbing it with soft ‘aspirational’ targets, or fading it in with no hard edges over some indeterminate time is simply not good enough. I actually think the public are ahead of the government on this, or could be, need to be, because if not we pay a much bigger price down the track.
(Freeman Dyson sees a world of new bio-engineered technologies that perform fundamentally differently from today’s technology and can be expanded into large scale solutions at moderate cost. It’s the cost of research and development which MUST be paid for by taxing the sh!t out of CO2, now, not latter, when it’s way too late.)
Showson,
Seeing the author of that article has me recoiling into my cave and withholding my vote after all…..
There are Libs and FLibs,some less self-serving than others.
ShowsOn
#527
“Take taxes off alcohol and cigarettes and see what happens to consumption!”
BUT ShowsOn , we keep drinking more & more of that lovely beer & wines , the young smoke & the reformed smokers regret , and we keep filing up the tank
So on that history , cost of a ‘necesssity’ does not necessarily reduce consumption , so why will a carbon only tax on ‘necessities’ based on a ‘market’ system IF we had 30 years to get emissions right , then maybe but we do not So its the lack of complementary offsets , alternatives , R & D , very overt uncompetitve encouragement to solar etc that concerns me 9& if the free trades object I say ask your grand kids (these are my concerns apart from the flaws ina market system) Its not the economic theory I think thats th problem
On Q&A, Tanner is just a star. Great quip: “I’m not really religious, I’m Anglican”.
“Has anyone heard any more about Nelson’s proposed trip from Sydney to Brisbane with a truckie?”
Shouldn’t he be travelling with “ute man” and an esky of alcopops, or maybe on a harley or trumpy, black sunnies and leather jacket, no helmet – riding free, free like the wind, letting it all hang out, feeling the breeze, the Australian landscape, the mood, the emotion.
Or maybe he should ride a pushbike to demonstrate his new committment to finding a solution to global warming.
And then Alexander follows him and sounds like a Celine Deon song
Grog@533
Agree-always felt Tanner was underestimated.
does anyone know where i could get a dolly doll
the guy is a complete goose
I have to say is there any greater death knell to a political carrer than to be labelled “rising star of Young Labor” http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/?
Yes, it is quite possible that Abbott’s article was just a piece of public relations work designed to help reposition the Liberals.
A lot of the climate change conspiracy theorists seem to just be opposing government regulation. But I don’t think things like tobacco taxes and speeding fines can be described as coercive regulation. The reason is simple – scientific evidence shows that if you smoke cigarettes you increase your chances of getting cancer and other health problems. Driving a car over the speed limit increases the chance of a person killing themselves in a crash. So taxes and fines in these scenarios aren’t actually regulative, they are normative – they encourage behavior that a rational person would do voluntarily, but for whatever reason don’t do. That is different from – for example – charging stamp duty when someone buys a home. That is – in my opinion – a simple money making measure that can’t be justified.
A love-in is developing between Marr and Dolly
540 – not quite how you would describe Shanahan and Marr…
“well traveled former Foreign Affairs Minister, Alexander Downer, ”
Is how the Q&A website describes hm, it has many different meanings.
zedder @ 484 –
Mayo Feral – Are you implying that trees do not remove CO2 from the atmosphere?</i.
No. It was the claim that they were taking it out at 40 times the rate we are presently emitting it that I was objecting too.
Mature forest, which is what I assume the claimant was referring to as “the original forests”, is pretty much carbon neutral. If you want to remove extra carbon you need to grow more trees, but the world described was already as forested as it could be.
charles @ 485 –
At 350 part per million the trees have come pretty bloody close, and have you ever wondered why warm periods don’t last very long.
No they haven’t. Global cooling is primarily caused by variations in the Earth’s orbit and tilt. In fact, as detailed here, there is some evidence that Ice Ages control CO2 levels, not the other way around.
541 – north and south pole on the magnetic scale
This Rose Jackson is too “I’ve taken a lot of public speaking courses”
539
ShowsOn
yeah, I was being a tad facetious, but people do actually enjoy speeding and even smoking for that matter (or convince themselves they do).
Putting a price on it is a bloody good way to change behaviour, we agree on that.
Not really. Per capita consumption is about constant, the problem is an increase in a minority who binge drink.
Smoking is declining over all. Last time I heard it is down to like 20% here. It seems to be increasing with teenage girls which is a problem, but over all it is declining, I guess because a lot of old smokers are dying, and the rate of young people taking it up is declining.
I don’t think carbon polluting industries are a necessity anymore. We have alternatives such as renewables and nuclear. I agree with you on one particular point though. Carbon trading will increase the price of petrol, so people on low incomes will end up using their cars less. There must be other choices for them so they can continue to use transport, be it public transport, or other cars. If they don’t have choices to buy something else then they must be compensated with cash.
system IF we had 30 years to get emissions right , then maybe but we do not So its the lack of complementary offsets , alternatives , R & D , very overt uncompetitve encouragement to solar etc that concerns me 9& if the free trades object I say ask your grand kids (these are my concerns apart from the flaws ina market system) Its not the economic theory I think thats th problem
Oh dear. Angela Shanahan equates religion with morality again.
When will this myth end?
So according to Downer we should shift from the false dichotomy of Reason V Religion and move to the false dichotomy of Love V Reason.
Hahahahahahaha Dolly and Marr nearly came to blows at the end! Classic TV!!!
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