Newspoll shows Labor maintaining its 55-45 two-party lead from last fortnight. Kevin Rudd has gained a point and Brendan Nelson lost one on the question of preferred leader, Rudd now leading 65 per cent to 14 per cent.
UPDATE: The Australian has not published a graphic this time, but you can read all about it at the Newspoll site. The paper also reports on an Essential Research survey on emissions trading, but we are told only that “58 per cent of Coalition voters believe Australia should take action even if other countries do not”, while “only 25 per cent of the 1700 voters polled believed Australia should act only when other major economies agreed to do so”. The West Australian has also published results on the subject from last week’s Westpoll survey of 400 respondents in WA, showing “two-thirds of the poll’s respondents agree that a carbon trading regime should be introduced according to the Prime Minister’s timetable”. However, 69 per cent believe the US, China and India “would need to adopt their own trading schemes if Kevin Rudd’s plan for an Australian ETS by 2010 was to be effective”, and “47 per cent of respondents were not prepared to pay more for petrol”.
UPDATE 2: Full report from Essential Research here. It includes a 59-41 result on federal voting intention based on two weeks of data, with a 3 per cent shift denoting that the week past was quite a lot better for the Coalition than a fortnight ago. There were also questions on the Catholic Church’s response to child abuse by priests and religious affiliation in general. Results were obtained from a targeted online panel of 1013 respondents.
844 Comments
Pages: « 1 [2] 3 4 5 … 17 » Show All
26 Jovial monk
“Two positions on whether he will respond or not!”
I suspect that not only Nelson has 2 positions on even whether to respond or not, but that the Liberal Party will still have 2 separate positions. Nelson will represent his backers ie the “hard right”, and Turnball the “not so right” group. Howard did keep the Progressive and Conservative sides together as Ruawake says by his constant success but I also suspect his push for Nuclear Energy was part of this re CC. For the Progressives an acceptable replacement for fossil fuel energy and for the Conservatives another way to make money! This was besides trying to make a wedge for Labor.
I think once the LP make a call on who they are they could very well split. It is a possibility over an important issue like CC.
If the WYD, God, the Catholics, iL Papa, Pell and the cast of thousands cannot save Iemma, then sad to say, Labor in NSW is doomed.
Cool if they split
Would one party be called Democratic Liberal Party?
48 ruawake
“Until the opposition bite the bullet and say we are a Conservative party or a Liberal party they will remain divided.”
Totally agree. But the problem is that the short term solution is to be a conservative party and therefore present a clear ‘opposition’ to Rudd. But the longer term requirement for them to be electorially competitive will be to reclaim the increasingly socially progressive / economic right ‘liberal’ contingent of the major cities. They cant do it without offending all those who they dog whistled to over the last 11 years. And a collapse in that vote now would tear them apart!
I can’t see a bloodless way out of it for them.
Jovial Monk
It would be cool if they split- maybe wishful thinking. Or maybe a breakaway group?
But the dynamics are there and I believe the factional divisions are far more bitter than what we are lead to think from the Press – especially in NSW and of course the Pineapple Party in Qld. Vic not too flash either, nor is WA.
Who knows? – I just think it is a possibility if the issue is big enough.
The “way out” is to concentrate on the main game – getting elected. At the moment it seems they are waiting to win by default.
Will the economy tank? Will Rudd stuff up? etc etc.
It will not work, maybe it will take a second election loss to get their self imposed mess sorted?
Is it any surprise that Howard’s dealings with people of ’suspect’ character would attract little or no attention from the media, as compared to Rudd and ‘Bourkegate’?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/firepower-chief-had-dinner-with-howard/2008/07/14/1215887540796.html
57
Let’s write the press release eh? Anyone got Dolly’s AWB one – that seemed to work okay…
didn’t know
wasn’t told
didn’t see
couldn’t be expected to know
didn’t bother asking
same old choices:
a) blind foolish idiot
b) lying corrupt devious fraudster
Trouble is ruawake the conservatives have the numbers. Can a conservative party get elected in Australia, I suspect not.
I don’t think the economy will tank with China and India paying so much for our resources. I think growth will slow to say 2.5%, but that will just have the effect of bringing inflation down, which will encourage the RBA to start cutting rates again (say by this time next year). Once that happens then growth will speed up again.
The OECD a few days ago says the long term outlook for our economy is better than that of any other country with a AAA credit rating.
You are right Finns, Gondor will fall this time.
57 Dario, especially when Firepower was linked to the AWB scandal.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/firepowerawb-inquiry-link/2007/01/10/1168105052406.html
So that is what the Rat Man used The Lodge for.
Well Kirribilli was safer than Russia.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/russian-oil-gunning-for-firepower-boss/2006/06/15/1149964674926.html
Has anyone else wondered why, with the absolute bucketing of Rudd and Labor that’s been going on over the past few weeks, by the O.O., the poisoned dwarf and other notable representatives of what’s called the fourth estate, but should probably be called the underbelly of same, why nothing much has really changed in these Newspoll results?
I’m not sure about how to take the Essential Research results, in comparison. There’s presumably got to be some sort of bias in their sampling methodology, i.e., online, but I don’t know if anyone has done any work on sorting out MoE with this type of sampling, for instance. Is it all a bit new?
ESJ @ 61. That’s actually very funny. Do you think Tip will have another go at leading?
Another go?
I shouldn’t take hollidays, have been catching up on past couple of weeks comments and thought Centre at 37 had started calling Turnbull Furballs! lol
here kitty kitty kitty
I put my specks on and saw it was Fullbull.
I note that the ‘leader of the Liberal Party at the next federal election’ market has been taken down by Sportingbet (seemingly replaced by ‘NSW Premier Special’ in which Nathan Rees is a surprisingly short $1.80 favourite to replace Chairman Mo).
I trust that my $20 @ $34 on People Skills is safe. Safer at least than Nobby Nelson’s hold on the Lib leadership.
I can’t wait for People Skills’ book. I hope he includes a Chapter elaborating his hilarious thesis that human rights can be rationlised by talking about tadpoles and fogs. This speech will form the draft:
http://parlinfoweb.aph.gov.au/piweb/TranslateWIPILink.aspx?Folder=HANSARDR&Criteria=DOC_DATE:2002-08-21%3BSEQ_NUM:7%3B
Not really. The last thing an electorate wants to do just after electing a new government is pay much attention to the whining of the opposition that was booted out. I mean, they voted them out for a reason. No one is engaged, and why would they be?
Does anyone read the Oz these days, apart from some Pollbludgers?
I could go a whole year without reading a single word of it. It’s just not worth the time.
And I’m a Liberal voter!
Dare I say it? Any takers on a mid term reshuffle at end of year? Who’s up and who’s down?
My top three in both categories:
Downers:
1. Swannie
2. Chris Bowen
3. Bob Debus
Up
1. Gillard
2. Combet
3. Plibersek
Where’s Gillard going to go? Surely she wouldn’t be silly enough to volunteer for Treasurer in the current environment?
Or are you making a bolder prediction than that, ESJ?
This is impossible. There is no way the Right will accept a net loss of 1 senior ministry.
ShowsOn,
Does Gillard still caucus with the left?
In any event with whats going on in NSW I doubt the right will have any grounds to object if the PM puts a bit of stick about.
Dyno,
Yes of course, Gillard has taken to it like a duck to water, she would be a much more formidable treasurer than Swannie and it would set her up well to take over in 2012.
Chris Bowen no way
Swannie, I know the fibs still think he is weak as piss, get real
Bob Debus, why???
My pick for a downer, Marn Fergsn
3 new Parliamentary secretaries plus Bob McMullen(sp?) sure one of those will get up to Minister, maybe not cabinet level tho
Hahahaha you get your facts from Pies or Bolt? Sure Gillard & Rudd joined forces and no doubt some bargain, but you really think Rudd would retire after one term?? Would need to be 2 terms, then retire for renewal of the Party
Chris Bowen mishandled fuelwatch – making one of youngn’s pay will put the others on their toes.
Debus – the ministry was a reward for running in Macquarie, he will gracefully retire to the backbench, after all he is 66 and has a state parliamentary pension under his belt, allows room for a newbie
Marn – doubt it, too much pull.
I did nominate Combet as one of the parl secs. I think you will find some of the others will have trouble elbowing their way in because of existing factional considerations. For example can you nominate a Victorian right winger who will get the bullet to make way for Shorten? Would Gillard want to see this happen?
Thomarse – end of term 1 – 2009 – end of term 2 – 2012. Its basic maths.
Woops did stuff up the arithmetic, eh ESJ?
2012 might be the go, IF Mr rudd don’t do a John Howard. eh?
I think Thomarse, Tim Costello called the PM ship the precious as in Lord of the Rings but my sense is Rudd would want to go out a winner and the first 5 years is always the best 5 years.
I think 6 – 6.5 years is more likely. He will win another 2 elections, then hand over to Bill Shorten before an election in the first half of 2014. The ALP certainly won’t be as stupid as the Liberals by hanging onto a leader who can’t win an election.
O.K. Dario at 71. I certainly get that, however, the O.O. and etc. have been positively feral of late. If it really means no-one is taking any notice of them, will they notice no-one is taking any notice of them. Are they then going to suffer such blows to their egos, they’ll be unable to proceed, i.e., might they STFU?
Nah ShowsOn 83 -as the planet heats up the Greens will be ready to take over with the Opposition Leader in waiting – Member for Sydney, Kerry Nettle.
Have another single malt.
Shows On, Just for the sake of argument, say Piping Shrike’s hypothesis is rightish about the re-positioning of Labor, what about Julia Guillard for Leader in about 6-6.5 years? I think she’s formidable, seriously. I reckon Tip would retreat into the middle distance if he thought he had to confront her in the House, or indeed anywhere, and I reckon Fluffballs would be choking on his own.
ESJ,
Fuelwatch has been a triumph. You really should stop reading the papers and listen to the punters. Being seen to be doing something in difficult times is always a good thing. Chris Bowen serious young man on the make.
Swannie is dominating. Remind me, how apart has the Opposition response to the Budget resonated. Laboor55/45 in front.
Bob Debus? Has risen without trace.
No chance. They’ll keep on believing that they are the kingmakers, despite the electorate ignoring them.
Shows On
Hand over to Bill Shorten? I think Julia might have something to say about that!
HSO
People Skills & Hockey BOTH were bested by Gillard–from Opposition! As PM yup Tip would slink off quietly
88
Greeensborough Growler
Possum has done work that shows FuelWatch has not reduced the price of petrol in Perth, it was the entry of Coles did that
GG,
On Bowen, look at the NSW Right, you have
Burke
McClelland
in Cabinet and Bowen in the outer ministry.
You have Mark Arbib in Canberra expecting a ministry plus a number of ambitious backbenchers – Bradbury in Lindsay and Clare in Blaxland.
Someones going to get hurt in the reshuffle. Who is the weakest in that particular pack?
Swannie – This may shock AND I was one of biggest baggers of Gillard on this site but she has done really well since November and will kick a goal with Workchoices legislation.
The Treasurer is always the No2 in government or at least that has been the pattern in the last 30 years. Gillard has earnt it for her mastery of her brief and of parliament. Swannie hasnt done a bad job and has been unlucky to inherit the job in the midst of sub-prime but it seems the logical move to me.
Hmmmm I have been unusally talkative tonight!
Must be the 750ml of Brasserie DuPont Saisson consumed tonight
Maybe so. I think she is definitely the best communicator in parliament, better than Rudd, Swan, Wong et al. Maybe Tanner is close.
I certainly think the country will be ready for it by 2013 or so. We may even be a republic then.
I agree she will have something to say, I don’t think she will have the numbers though.
And ESJ has forgotten how Rudd dominates the Caucus
Less will be heard about factions I think
ESJ, at least with the Rudd Ministry, NO resignation over anything in the first six months. Whereas, stand corrected here, there was 2-3 resignations in Howard’s first 6 months.
I think Swanie is doing much better than expected. The Oilman should be performing stronger.
Edward StJohn Says:
July 15th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
I think Thomarse, Tim Costello called the PM ship the precious as in Lord of the Rings but my sense is Rudd would want to go out a winner and the first 5 years is always the best 5 years.
I think that is precious tosh, BTW
Rudd dominates caucus 96 – how naive Thomarse. Strangely for a ministry which was personally selected by the PM factional balance was achieved.
Finns 97 – sure no one’s done the naughty yet. I vaguely remember Downer being on his final warning in the first year.
ESJ,
They have been there six months. Change will happen over time and there is clearly a lot of talent on the ALP side itching to climb the greasy pole.
Education is a huge part of Rudd’s agenda and Gillard as head of Education and training is a huge testament to its importance.
A fundamental difference between Labor and Liberal is that Labor are focussed on delivering services to the Community. Libs tend to focus on just the counting side of things.
You really need to look at Rudd being intent on delivering his agenda rather than the simple political machinations. Rudd is the most dominat leader that Labor has ever had.
Pages: « 1 [2] 3 4 5 … 17 » Show All