Newspoll shows Labor maintaining its 55-45 two-party lead from last fortnight. Kevin Rudd has gained a point and Brendan Nelson lost one on the question of preferred leader, Rudd now leading 65 per cent to 14 per cent.
UPDATE: The Australian has not published a graphic this time, but you can read all about it at the Newspoll site. The paper also reports on an Essential Research survey on emissions trading, but we are told only that “58 per cent of Coalition voters believe Australia should take action even if other countries do not”, while “only 25 per cent of the 1700 voters polled believed Australia should act only when other major economies agreed to do so”. The West Australian has also published results on the subject from last week’s Westpoll survey of 400 respondents in WA, showing “two-thirds of the poll’s respondents agree that a carbon trading regime should be introduced according to the Prime Minister’s timetable”. However, 69 per cent believe the US, China and India “would need to adopt their own trading schemes if Kevin Rudd’s plan for an Australian ETS by 2010 was to be effective”, and “47 per cent of respondents were not prepared to pay more for petrol”.
UPDATE 2: Full report from Essential Research here. It includes a 59-41 result on federal voting intention based on two weeks of data, with a 3 per cent shift denoting that the week past was quite a lot better for the Coalition than a fortnight ago. There were also questions on the Catholic Church’s response to child abuse by priests and religious affiliation in general. Results were obtained from a targeted online panel of 1013 respondents.
844 Comments
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Point taken GG.
Thomarse
re fuelwatch , you mention my Enemy Marsupial possum with whom i never agree with What he now says Coles reducing overal prices as usu8al he is on strange planets A new player initialy in any market will reduce prices , but coles has been the leading higherr price setter wherever its been Tank goodness for some diminishing independants As for Bowen , done a good job with fuelwatch ashas most labor team , maybe not Ferguson Debus goes to retiremantland , so one opening, expect at least one ‘gaffer’ so thats a 2nd opening swannie Now my sense says a smarty leader aspirants Shorten & Gillard would never go thru Swannie , bt around him Also think deal with Rudd & Swannie will hold irrespective & Julia knows that & know th Rudd wants results not politics
GG, have you got a feeling that with the OTHER election OVER there, after all the hoo-hah-oomplah of the last 12 months, we still dont know what the candidates will be delivering to the community?
I’ve been thinking about the behavior of the Australian and their mates. I wonder if it goes back to the level of money spent on government campaigns. Have you noticed they have stopped, I haven’t received a terror magnet this year, haven’t seen a work choice advertisement. the loss of funds must be hurting.
Well, this is all getting very entertaining again isn’t it? Bloody good (doing a Rudd – damn, blast, bother).
Dario, you’re probably right. They certainly look and sound delusional to me. I can’t help myself though. If, as seems possible, Labor wins the next Fed. election, what on earth relevance do they have to selling newspapers to prople who aren’t interested in what they have to say?
prople=people
Ron,
Poss was actually quoting another economist who had done work on ACCC data.
Actually, i would just like to know where cheapest petrol is on the day and FOR the day, bet I will save with that knowledge
had a good ‘dinner’ too?
And on long weekends all the station’s are going to have to second guess each other on their prices on the Thursday’s, otherwise they will have a stack of fuel they won’t sell.
As it stands they can all inflate the price, then correct for it if they over shot the average by too far.
When does does the real Commission into the AWB affair start? In Queensland they had an inquiry set up similar to the Cole Commission called the National Hotel Inquiry and everyone slid away unscathed. Years later they had the Fitzgerald Inquiry that examined the same issues and unraveled the whole corrupt mess.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/19/1195321695303.html
Thomarse, lovely mash, beans, rissoles and caramalised onion gravy. Still having many happy returns!
Silly bugger. Would do smiley thing if could or was interested in learning how. Pokes tongue out, in lieu of.
Ron – Don Harding has just released his final paper on FuelWatch, but this time using the actual data that was supplied to the ACCC by Informed Sources.
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/foolwatchdatapaper.pdf
Fuelwatch is empirical twaddle and the ACCC management should be ashamed of itself.
And let us hope that Rudds so called evidence based policy starts actually using some.
Enemy Marsupial
Rudd only in 6 moths , fuel watch is at least a start Now up to Chris Bowen to address that disgraceful web site all the stations use supposedly for ‘info’ but is actualy to ‘fix’ prices and for govt to put some coersive teeth to testify into ACCCC that Howard took out
Thomarse
go tuersdays with a snmile , watch for stations with ‘pumps out of order’ , i tried a few and they are not out of order
112 Possum, it is very disappointing that an organisation set up as a watchdog can not be trusted to the extent that its word is its bond. One can only hope that the ACCC begins to adopt a more acceptable standard of behaviour from now on.
That website is Informed Sources, the company that supplied the data to the ACCC.
Well, it was probably a screw up by a 22 year old economics grad. I don’t think the article asserts that the ACCC was deliberately trying to deceive.
Shows on, they may not be trying to deliberately deceive but they have the staff and the computing power to get these things right or have their worked checked by others to ensure it is right.
111
Harry “Snapper” Organs
and a nice glass of red or three? : )
True. And there is kind of a conflict of interest at work – if the FuelWatch scheme goes ahead, the ACCC’s budget will be increased by $20 million p.a.
Steve -spot on.
Absolutely spot on.
And it wasn’t the data monkey’s fault here – it was the ACCC management, starting with Samuel. Trying to hide the analysis from public scrutiny was just disgraceful.
And the whole thing reeks of Politician X telling Bureaucrat Y to whip up some evidence, however inconclusive and faulty, that can be used to support a policy we plucked from our nearest orifice just to be seen to be doing something, regardless of whether that something actually does anything at all, let alone anything constructive.
We’ve just been through nearly 12 years of that horseshit, the last thing we need is another 12 years of it.
But if it takes Fuelwatch to get fuel prices off the agenda, and back onto increasing energy conservation, then isn’t that in the end good?
Seriously, we have bigger problems that fuel prices to worry about.
So cynical ShowsOn 120. Smoke and Mirrors for the masses eh?
We can only hope that when the figures come out in support of the Garnaut Report that they are in the ball park, explain how much greenhouse Gases are going to be cut and accurately reflect the price it will cost to get the cuts that are desired. Anything less will be an absolute disaster for all supporters of progress.
If that means getting the figures verified by myriad independent sources before they are released then that is what should be done.
Don harding added nothing for consumer either reely Agre ESJ all smoke & mirrors , so there’s a flwed model supposedly & Coes & Woolies did WA consumers a favor But there are 5 other states where Coles & Woolis gouge us Agree with Shows On , the pressure should bbe on consevaton cause petrol will get dearer in future anyway with demand outstriping supply
doubt treasury will release their modelling tho
ShowsOn @ 112:: Firstly I agree with you.
But when the MSM are screaming “fuel rises, fuel rises, fuel rises” all the time, and blaming government inaction for the rises, it hard for the government to get any sort of message out. Even if the price rises have nothing to with the government and everything to do with market forces.
Its even harder if you have an incompetent opposition being championed by the same MSM, that wants to play populist politics by saying that they will cut the excise by 5cpl even though they know that it would do jack to the price at the pump.
It’s been good to see that in the last week or so since the release of The Garnaut Report that the opposition is showing the same muddled and confusing message on CC that it showed in government.
Hopefully with the release of the green paper tomorrow we will see where the government intends to take the nation and the real debate about our future will begin.
124 Thomarse, Treasury has already promised their modelling, not tomorrow but when the next paper is released in September I think it is.
Sorry folks. Should be ShowsOn @ 120:
Sondeo, I can see your point but it is too risky a strategy to let the barking mad Opposition forces run the agenda. Better to take a little more care and time than to be shown up as running a dodgy argument.
Steve, treasuries modelling or Garnaut’s?
Steve
the problam seems to be is consumers may wear world oily prices going up , but not the daily retail price gouging Now the don Hardings & ACCCC can say Coles & wollies reduced prices in WA , but th public in the East States see the Coles & Woolies petrol pump change daily & think they are being gouged , i agree with them , and Libs cynically getting traction here Better for rudd to switch argument to CC conservation & emision targets , as think petrol is not going to go down in future Aslo Garnaut seems very lite on on the Nuclear power energy option
steve @ 122,
If you want reasonable certainty on price (in the short to medium term) you would go with McKibbin’s model. It sounds as if the Govt has decided against doing so, however.
Charles @ #104:
Quite possible. One of the overlooked factors of the last election campaign was the amount of money spent on useless advertising.
By “useless” I mean pointless, as effectiveness surveys from the very start reported that the government’s WC campaign was actually turning people away from them.
The anti-WC brigade cheered it as a gift from heaven: Howard’s stubbornness in persisting with a failed and failing campaign and all that.
But I always took a more caustic point of view: win, lose or draw, Howard’s mates scored big, to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayers’ money dumped directly into their bank accounts at full-freight rates, money that was laundered back to the Liberals by way of positive commentary and… well.. we can only surmise what exact form the rest of the payoff took.
That money is gone forever, never to be returned to us, the people the campaign was directe dagainst and who were forced to pay for it. It was theft on a grand scale, monney stolen from the Australian people and put to the benefit of those happily cheered for their enslavement.
Shame on them all.
And another thing, this was one of their election promises that should have been sorted out in opposition or given to Treasury and the ACCC to number crunch as soon as they came into Government. That way could could have come up with a workable counter proposal to Brenda’s 5 cent cut and they still need to do that.
I fail to see how the ACCC has done the Government any favours with what they have served up so far. They need to come up with a solution that makes sense numerically and trumps the Opposition proposals politically.
steve,It’s been the MSM that are running the agenda for the opposition. Regardless of what message the government may try and get out.
I’m at a stage now where I refuse to watch any tv news, listen to radio or read a newspaper because it so biased toward the conservatives. I get all my info from the web. I’m sick and tired of the shock jocks,current affairs programs and others that claim they are the upholders of all that is moral and right in our society but their news coverage is basically populist at best, and certainly biased.
The future of our nation is at stake now and I have little faith that anything positive that the Garnaut Report may bring about will be drowned out by a sea of MSM negativity.
Quite correct. Could of been handled better.
BB @132.
Spot on mate. They made squillions from Howard.
ShowsOn at 120
We certainly do have bigger problems, but if the government is going to deploy this kind of nonsense – trying to whip up some dodgy evidence to justify a policy when people start sniffing around it – those bigger problems wont get solved.
Policy needs to be evidence based.
The alternative is just a more sophisticated version of making shit up.
And we all know the type of hit rate that has – we see it in the Murray/Darling every day.
Ron, the paper looked at the disparity in prices between markets and explained how and why price movements were occurring. Fuelwatch had no statistical impact, but, if it did anything at all, it more likely raised prices in Perth than reduce them.
The only thing that does for consumers is screw them, albeit politely and using other peoples money for the privilege.
132 Bushfire Bill
It was unbelievable the amount of Workchoices and anti-union ads that were played on SkyNews on Rupe’s part owned Foxtel.
SkyNews has an inbuilt audience of aware and mainly hardset political viewers. These viewers weren’t going to be swayed by these monotonous ads.
It was a money dump by the Liberal Party into friendly hands, that as you say , was always going to return the favor in kind.
What absolute tosh the Murdoch Press are.
131 Dyno and the main features of McKibbin is to set the Price Signals early and accurately ie not wait until technology is developed to solve the problems before the setting of the Price Signal.
Meanwhile Finns on another planet they have entered bizzaro conspiracy theory world.
Of course, the mining companies and Brenda want to put the cart before the horse and develop the relevant technologies to solve the problems before they get the ETS up and running.
Enemy Marsupial
looked at that report a few times , my percpective was different as every Party has an ‘angle’ If one takes the WA comparisons right put of the report , the argument seems to be the flawed ACCCC modeling , and there appears merit in that point But the conclusion removes any semblence of price gouging , or the efect of the Informed Sources site thats helping stations on one hand On the othr hand the ACCCC is trying to protect its politcal back for being party during howards time to not addrssing petrol properly Then on other hand th ACCCC powers have coesive somewhat been blunted by howard Think Fuel Watch should not be thrown out but made to work better , but overall I still reckon takin on the Oil dragons is not clever , better to atack via emision tagets & more fuel efficent cars etc
ACCCC? What does this stand for Ron?
I agree. So while I think that the economic justification of fuelwatch is dubious, I think politically it was a good thing to do. Even after reading the document Possum posted, I still don’t think FuelWatch will make things worse (i.e. more expensive), I think it may make people THINK fuel is cheaper because they will have more information to get it at the cheap price when they want.
But really, the main game is getting people into more fuel efficient cars, or into public transport.
Or maybe we could cut the excise by, say, 5c a litre. No bugger it, let’s make it 10c or 20c or even 30c. That’s real policy.
Gary
i added the extra C , when howard took over & mutalated its coersive powers The Oily companies over time would pocket that excise instead of the Govt
Actualy , i’m diasppointed Garnaut did not look more at the clean nuclear option , at least as a comparison Coal is CC dirty & its future vs targets seem not compatible without carbon storage & capture thats not yet developed
I wish Harvey Norman would cease selling keyboards without ‘full stops’.
Advertiser is reporting that fuel is effectively out of the emissions trading scheme, because the excise will be cut to offset price increases:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24027243-5006301,00.html
This is silly. Transport causes 14% of our Green House emissions.
Red Wombat, they’re still selling keyboards with AWA’s though…
Ah delicious dearies… time out
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRfJ4ZfYmmk&mode=related&search=
GG going ‘Brian’ on us LOL…& middle stumped on 194 previous…roflol agin & agin…georgeous or gorgeous…are you live blogging from Randwick?…just asking…
PS middle stump @ seisha wharf, groper grip, apparently!
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