Comments on: ACNielsen: 54-46

By: MDMConnell

MDMConnell — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:25:53 +0000

#67,68

If Oakeshott contests Lyne, Labor could just organise to leave Port Mac vacant until the Lyne by-election has been run. If Oakeshott lost, he could then re-nominate and probably win Port Mac, thus preventing the Coalition from gaining a state seat.

Also, from what I understand, Oakeshott is considered by some to be a de-facto Liberal. Is it possible he could run for Lyne (or Port Mac for that matter) under the Libs’ banner?

By: Possum Comitatus

Possum Comitatus — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:09:23 +0000

That’s a good question about Port Macquarie. It seems more Liberal than National these days, but in any hypothetical of Oakeshott leaving and a by-election being called – whether the State Coalition parties would fight out a three cornered contest is debatable.

If it was a three way, my guess is the Libs would win – probably beat the Nats by about 5-10% on primaries before running away with it in TPP terms over Labor.

By: Swordfish

Swordfish — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:00:08 +0000

Possum – Stoner would be taking a big gamble as he is almost sure to be the next NSW Deputy Premier, and it is unlikely he would get a shot at being Deputy PM for quite some time – he’d be spending even more time in Opposition (I don’t think he was in state parliament when Greiner/Fahey were around).

It may well be that is pushed into it for the sake of the party/sense of duty or whatever.

Also, if Oakeshott does run – would Port Macquarie revert to being National?

By: micky

micky — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:00:17 +0000

Seems every poll shows rudds popularity going lower and lower and nelsons slowly going higher and higher. Its only a matter of time before the libs get over the 51% 2PP

By: gusface

gusface — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 11:32:59 +0000

Poss
the oz wouldn’t know mirth if it hit em in the funny bone

(just ask mumble!)

By: Possum Comitatus

Possum Comitatus — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 11:28:46 +0000

Oops, or Oakeshott even.

Greeny, I hope Billbowe is taking the mirth of The Oz dig for what it was.

By: Greeensborough Growler

Greeensborough Growler — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 11:27:39 +0000

G’day JOM,

FWIW i think this blog is pro Labor with a distinct green tinge. I’m sure William would prefer a balance of opinion but I believe the MSM seems to cater more than adequately for the pro Liberal, right wing view.

That said, I enjoy your contributions and hope you and others of your ilk continue to post here.

I may not agree, but I enjoy the challenge.

Cheers.

By: Possum Comitatus

Possum Comitatus — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 11:24:34 +0000

Swordfish,

Stoner would be the Nats best bet – but if Oakshott runs, Stoner would sacrifice being a front bencher and head cow cocky in the next NSW government for a tilt at years in the wilderness at the Federal level where he still wouldn’t be the favourite to win Lyne.

If you were Stoner, would you roll those dice?

By: Swordfish

Swordfish — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 11:14:51 +0000

Perhaps the only Nat that can win Lyne is one with a strong local profile: Andrew Stoner.

He’d also be a potential federal leader.

By: Rod

Rod — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 11:10:53 +0000

JoM

True, William lets all, lib, labor, nat, green, FF, SWP etc have a fair say.