The increasingly unpredictable Roy Morgan has released a face-to-face survey of 797 voters conducted just over a week ago, showing Labor’s two-party lead up to 60-40 from 59-41 at the larger poll conducted over the two previous weekends. Both Labor (48 per cent) and the Coalition (34.5 per cent) are down 0.5 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens spiking from 8 per cent to 11.5 per cent, mostly at the expense of “independent/others” (down from 6 per cent to 3.5 per cent).
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
474 Comments
So Roy’s gap is 20 whereas Neilsons is 8. Bit of a difference there don’t ya’all think?
Is Roy ‘avin’ a laugh or wot?
1: For some reason Morgan is always quite generous to Labor than the other pollsters.
It’s the ANTI-NARROWING!!!!
Unlike AC Nielsen, for the Libs, Roy Morgan provide not the “narrowing” but the harrowing, n’est pas John of Melbourne?
Yeh, but nobody really takes morgan that seriously anymore.
Kevin Rudd is still the MAN
You know, I’m constantly surprised at many of the comments I read on this site: Surprised that folks actually take these “polls” seriously.
This recent difference in results merely illustrates the inevitable inaccuracies that result from small sample, poorly constructed, questionnaires.
Morgan is not credible really. However of course, one day he’ll have the coalition within, say 4% and people will think “ah, now that’s credible”, even though he’ll be using the same flawed procedure.
Gary Morgan says:
“Support for the Rudd Government remains strong. The Government has maintained a 13.5% lead over the Opposition as debate over how to regulate Australia’s carbon emissions picked up after the release of the Garnaut Report.
“The debate has caused an increase in support for the Greens to a record high 11.5% (up 3.5%), beating the previous record high for the Greens of 11% during March 2003 in the run-up to the Iraq War.
“The successful implementation of the carbon trading system is the Rudd Government’s biggest challenge and any mishandling of its implementation will see support for the Greens and Coalition increase at the Government’s expense.”
In other news, Gary Morgan says that if the sky wasn’t blue it’s probably be some other colour.
Fair dinkum.
Looks like someone gave him a hand with the first two talking points though.
Something funny is definitely going on in pollster land though with the marked differences. Given that they really only get the chance to truly calibrate at election time, has something changed that’s causing this? Is it regional? Is the way that one or the other is asking the questions revealing previous or new current bias?
lol
To give a little perspective, here’s a comparison between polling in 1996 and 2008.
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=3514
As with all polls, look at the trend not the absolute numbers.
Can only recommend you follow Possums Pollytrack.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/
Interesting that “Who do you think will win the next election?” is running at 66:22.
It’s the ANTI-NARROWING!!!!
No, no, no. It is the ‘widening’. Well, this week.
More bad news for Brenda here he might have to abandon or adjust his policy of a five cent cut in fuel excise.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/21/2309902.htm?section=justin
Even worse is that the rising inflation rate may well have just showed the first tentative signs of turning the corner:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/21/2309922.htm?section=justin
But I guess he still has grocery prices as an unknown quantity.
The growth in the Green Vote continues on, unabated and unreported. Consistently %10 or greater, I wonder if Possum or William have any graphs or theories on where the green ceiling is. The Democrats at their height had ? 14-15%.
Unfortunately for the Libs, the Democrats were a far more right wing friendly group, I particularily liked the way they did split tickets, they had much of the rhetoric of the radical but were based on the bones of a rather bitter and twisted right wing individual with a chip on his shoulder.
I can’t see the Greens ever doing worse than split tickets and as we know their voters are the very ones who are actually capable of voting without following the HTV anyway.
Just because the Morgan poll is consistently overstating the ALp result it needn’t be dismissed. If anything it is consistent, therefore all we should do is look at the trend, it has moved 1% to the ALP whereas the Age poll has moved 1% away. Conclusions at this stage could well be that not much has changed. ?
The only thing polls 2 years out from an electon help is the timber industry And Shanhan to explain his PPM But Gary Morgan is in fantasyland both showing Labor at 60% , and then adding his professional comments , which mean nothing
My sense is the trends simply say kevin07 is competent presently , but think expecting above 54/55% 2PP ever is a never
at an electon
Amigo Ronnie,
You gotta to hand it to Kevin07. This is what Maxwell Smart would say to 99 as my “i-appoint-one-of-yours-then-i-can-appoint-many-of-mine” trick. Kimbo, Carr, Brack anyone?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24050721-601,00.html
Gary Morgan probably spent the weekend thinking of how to explain his heading in the right/wrong direction question – both went up.
Re: Timbo are there any trains in the vatican?
Finns,
Tim Fischer will probably try and get a model railway introduced for all the visitors to get around the Vatican.
GG, i assume then that everyone will be wearing the (gucci red) shoes of the Fischer’s man on the train?
I don’t mind Timbo getting the gig – he rates highly in my decent politicians list.
23 ruawake – I agree. Anyone who loves trains is fine by me.
Finns,
Good idea.
All the passengers can click their heals and say they are not in Kansas any more.
GG, is Tim Fischer in trouble? i thought he should be +15 by now.
Gallup Tracking 07/17 – 07/19 45 42 Obama +3.0
Rasmussen Tracking 07/17 – 07/19 47 45 Obama +2.0
Finns,
Somewhere over the rainbow, he’s way up higher.
We live in interesting times! The growth in the Green vote is also fascinating! After years, actually around 11, of Prime Minister Howard and now Prime Minister Rudd, I think a number of voters are simply reacting to a very CONSERVATIVE new Prime Minister. I had a phone call today from my nephew who said quite clearly that he doesnt like Kevin Rudd’s and elements of the Labor Party’s very close association with religious organisations! Yes, Green preferences will return back to the Labor Party but I think that people to the left in politics will endorse the Greens on a more regular basis. If this keeps the dreaded Liberal/National Parties out of all governments, so be it! However conservative Labor has it all in front of them! Perhaps they should see the success of the Spanish Socialists eg and break free!!!!! The Green Left struggles in countries where traditional Socialists are strongly reformist! I personally long for this in Australian politics! Stick it up the Conservatives!!!!! Labor has the possibilities ALL before it, but will it have the guts to deliver the reforms that so many Australians long for after the bleak and devastating years of John Howard, One Nation and Family First. I wait in anticipation!!!!!
Ms jen, you can come out of the gulag now, the green votes are up
4 Corners is running the story of Tim Johnston and Firepower tonight.
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2008/s2306960.htm
Here’s a pretty erudite analysis of the politics of ETS from a regular participant.
http://thepipingshrike.blogspot.com/
The Greens increased their primary vote by a staggering 0.6% at the last election to a whopping 7.79%.
While Labor only managed a mingy 5.74% to record a paltry 43.38% primary vote.
Yep the Greens won the election.
yea , there are lots of dems Greens in the 150 seat HOR Actualy in the HOR , there are mor ushers than Green MP’s
ruawake,
But, that 7.79% are so morally superior. We are not worthy!
This from an Essential Research poll on Ross Garnaut’s plan on climate change
“It also canvassed the public’s thoughts on federal Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson, who did not fare well.
Of the 15 personality traits surveyed, Dr Nelson beat Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s ratings in a survey last month on just one: he was perceived to be less demanding.”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24054258-1702,00.html
Poor undemanding Brenda, lol
By the way, has he gone trucking up the Pacific Highway with a Bundy alchopop 6 pack and a hairy trucker in his big rig yet?
10 4 good buddies.
Vera ,
he should hav caught one of sir Timmys trains Did you hear about out new Vaticn man , set up 2 magnifient toy train tracks , going up dales & down valleys , over those toy bridges , then went whizzo with his 2 trains , and they collided Should had undermanding Brendan steer
Trains aren’t manly enough for Brenda, it’s gotta be a truck… a bloody big truck, or a motorbike…a big powerfull one to throw a leather clad leg over and pose on before tossing back his unhelmeted hair and chucking a wheelie to show us all how cool he is. Oh be still my beating heart!
Finns, has Catrina been in touch with you? She has emailed me a number of times begging me to post on the rebel site. I think they are getting bored perhaps?
and Vera , Horatio’s long side burns ?
Vera,
Get your motor running…….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJS8j9YYB9w
G/Growler
yey! born to be wiiiiiiiiiiiiild,
ron
Horatio’s long whats? uh-oh feeling crook now, where’s my sick bag
ESJ,
I was just wondering hopw the Papal visit went.
All we got on your ABC was 25 year old sex abuse stories.
I was wondering whether any of those hundreds of thousands of pilgrims made an impact on the community. Or were the atheists and deviants outraged that there could be an outbreak of happiness and normal youthful exuberance without the violence or alcohol.
Vera , you may be saved , the truckie may get lost !
Brenton
#28
“now Prime Minister Rudd, I think a number of voters are simply reacting to a very CONSERVATIVE new Prime Minister”
Cann’t let that pass on the train track I’ll give you ‘consevative’ : the rodent , Dolly , Mr Smirk , silky toff Turnbull , Kevin ‘hicks’ Andrews …they believe in workchoices , they do not believe in universel heath care , they agreed with the Iraq invasion , they did not believe in Kyoto etc thats ‘right’ politcs i may have a beef with Kevin07 over ETS & not having a super solar grid , just not bold enough at the minute but he IS ‘left’ , not rodent-ism , and mate you mmust have caught one of Sir Timmys “green” trains
ESJ, i am no longer her toy boy, so no email from her i’m afraid. there is only that much in-breeding you can do before the recessive gene pool becomes showy, lol.
Can anyone explain to me the logic behind the Oz Ambassador to Ireland doubling as the Ambassador to the Holy See? Why wouldn’t the Ambassador to Italy cover the Vatican? And how did the writers of the Hollowmen know about Timmy getting the gig before us?
Diog, it’s the name, Timmy is the son of the Fischer’s man.
btw: why aren’t you on the Gulag?
I wonder what the average National party member thinks about the right wing nutters in the Liberal party.
I wonder if Rudd is trying to give them a reason to think very deeply about the issue.
“Can anyone explain to me the logic behind the Oz Ambassador to Ireland doubling as the Ambassador to the Holy See? ”
you are obviously not Irish , otherwise you could the reasonable logicv involved
Diogenes, an intentional leak to show up the appointment for the joke it really is?
When did the leader of Ireland ever get 400,000 people at Randwick?
Or, seeing as how Fischer was leader of the Country party, he was sent over as an exercise of Palpable Bull.
Well, you’d get it if Ron said it.)
When he offers free Guiness instead of salvation, GG…
GG
Even I was impressed with a 400,000 crowd at Randwick without Octagonal running.
Probably The Beatles at their peak could have got that with a single Oz show. Maybe Michael Jackson or Princess Diana. It’s quite mind-boggling really.
charles 47 Says:
July 21st, 2008 at 8:37 pm
“I wonder what the average National party member thinks about the right wing nutters in the Liberal party”
What do you think ? The old ‘country party’ members were conservative but there prioritys were farm issues , and the right wing Lib’s prioritys aren’t farm issues
Fulvio , we Irish have our logics , which you decoded the Country Party affiliation accurately
Diogenes,
The Beatles bigger than God?
I don’t think so.
Princess Diana,
Only a funeral.
Michel Jackson,
A kindergarten convention?
Charles @ 47 went:
“I wonder what the average National party member thinks about the right wing nutters in the Liberal party.”
Most of the Nats I know probably reckon they’re Communists
hahahahahahaha
GG
Q- How do they know when it’s bed-time in the Michael Jackson household?
A- When the big hand touches the little hand.
Diogenes,
A SHORT HISTORY OF MEDICINE: “Doctor, I have an ear ache.”
2000 B.C. – “Here, eat this root.”
1000 B.C. – “That root is heathen, say this prayer.”
1850 A.D. – “That prayer is superstition, drink this potion.”
1940 A.D. – “That potion is snake oil, swallow this pill.”
1985 A.D. – “That pill is ineffective, take this antibiotic.”
2000 A.D. – “That antibiotic is artificial. Here, eat this root!”
GG,
WYD was a big success in Sydney. Truly many happy and excited yoot from all over the world.
The Fischer appointment is brilliant politics for the PM and entirely appropriate to seperate the posts. Of course when Morris Iemma pops up as Ambassador to Canada people may wince.
I thought I just had to make the next post just because…
ESJ, are U sure it was “happy and excited root” from all over the world?
Oh Oh I just cant help myself now this repetition is good for the soul….
You’ve spoiled my sequence Finns, I only had to do another 18 repeat posts for the record.
Well the vibe was generally positive in Sydney. Some whinged but even the cynics I sometimes associate with thought of it as a positive event.
Interesting question – which is crueller: sending the Cypriots Alexander or the Canadians Iemma?
Finns 44,
Yes I think Catrina wanted me for balance on her rebel site. I had to decline moving into the compound with Charlie and the gang would have been just tooo weird.
ESJ,
Exactly, but you won’t read or hear about such a positive view of proceedings.
Oh GG,
thats just the nasty secular bias of the MSM.
ZOOM
you are rating Yemma as low as Dolly , thats a big call
Spam Box
#57
“Most of the Nats I know probably reckon they’re Communists”
The old Country Pary Leader of McEwen & earlier were ’socialists’ with there govt controlled Boards pricing of Wheat , wool ets Then the Libs taught them ‘right wing economic rationalism’ ….that killed off the farmers & the Country Party identity
GG
you didn’t add 2008 AD , obamarotic
ESJ,
You are seriously saying the residents of Gilligans island approached you as some sort of editorial input guru. Was this before or after the committee of exclusion edict?
I really don’t understand why William continues the joke of having a link on this site. Without it, they would die in their swill.
ESJ,
i hate bowling to the second XI. it’s not fair on the punters. they paid to come and see a real contest. so i have to decline on the green lady.
Does anyone here believe that Labor has a 60% 2PP that will hold
.
.
.
Amigo FINNS , i was offered the position of both moderator and lingo standards
Ron,
What about punctuation?
Certainly panache, style and reasonable enjoyment.
understand showy is incharge of panache , although the panch objected
LOL,
I can post the evidence if anybody cares?
GG,
At some point the oxygen ventilator will be switched off I guess.
obvously as you are clearly the most affiable , you were seen as the weak link
ESJ,
You are probably already dining out on it, so waht the heck.
Please exclude names to protect the guilty.
Ron,
ESJ as the linkiest weak
ROFL.
GG
“Here’s a pretty erudite analysis of the politics of ETS from a regular participant.
http://thepipingshrike.blogspot.com/”
Went through that , a classic divide the Libs and conqer strategy by Rudd on ETS & CC , doesn’t leave the Greens much does it seeing Ruddy presently ” owns” CC ?
#73, Amigo Ronnie, you will be their the prof. Higgins on Gilligan’s Island or the Gulag where the reign of the bland fall mainly on the wasteland. yes, july is the cruelest month.
so boyos
for 13 odd (and i stress ODD) posts you have been having a nice tug
enough already
I’ve just posted my Western Australian election guide, but I’m going to give it another proof read before I put it up in lights. I would appreciate it if anyone could point out any glaring errors.
GG,
I’ll post it tomorrow night.
Anyone,
So who is going to be the first to condemn the “Think Climate, Think Change” Government funded advertising campaign?
William
re Geraldton , asterish , * Seat’s party affiliation has changed following redistribution” perhaps i’m in error in querying this definition , but thought Labor held this & only debate is re redistrib maybe helping the Libs or not
ESJ,
The Government has a duty to inform the public of their decisions.
Do you have a problem with this?
Gusface
what would like to discuss
LOL, GG.
An argument the Libs would have made last year too!
ESJ, “Think Climate, Think Change” – Yes, the Change you can believe in.
#90, yes, while on the road to Damascus to annihilate the Obamabots, i had my conversion.
LOl Finns, I am seeing things much more clearly now.
ESJ,
Good to see, you have discovered ironing.
Finns,
Lose the bitterness, move on. it’s only a blog site.
Yes change the tone Finns.
Ron, it’s a Labor held seat that has a notional Liberal majority after the redistribution. Obviously it still has the same (Labor) member.
yep , see what you’ve done now that i look at the Labor side re your treatment of Darling Range & Bunbury that are currently Libs , but notionally Labour Your way is much beter William , as one can see th ‘as now’ status of seats clearly , rather than who technically holds them Alot of close seats with little margin to change there is !
This is funny, because it is.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/costello/
Herald/Nielsen poll lheadlined Labor’s 54 to 46 lead , and Rudd 65% PPM
What has not been highlighted in this poll of 1400 people were the CC results , taken since the release of the Green Paper
77% per cent believe Australia should press ahead and cut its greenhouse gas emissions, IRRESPECTIVE of what other countries do
68 per cent said they were prepared to pay more for goods & services as a result of emmissions cuts , while 24 per cent were opposed
60% slightly understood or had no understanding at all of the emissions trading scheme (However, two-thirds still supported introducing a scheme !)
BUT 54% per cent are satisfied with the way Mr Rudd is handling the matter while 38 per cent are unhappy This latter figure of only 54% satisfation is ‘erodeable’ , and indicates for mine voters do want to see a tangible energy replacement plan Voters understand emmissions have to be cut , therefore emmission generating enrgy usage has to be cut , BUT voters still want the lost energy to be able to use ! they still want to use the products , so where is this lost enegy replacement is what they’ll soon ask ! perhaps implicit in the low 54% figure vs 77% overall CC support
Ron,
I’d also say there’s a kind of Bradley effect in the 77%. Plenty of people are going to feel they ought to say to the pollster (a stranger) that they support us “doing something” about CC – it’s immoral not to support it, isn’t it?
But whether the suburbanites will willingly support this with their hip pockets (and their votes), well that’s a different question. They’ll need to be convinced. Over to you, Kevin.
Dyno ,
take your point , that may mean the 68% supporting paying more for goods & services could also be ’soft’ ?
.
(which is why i’m alittle woried the 54% pro Rudd CC handling is so low)
William… a few corrections / quibbles for the WA site.
Vic Park: the suburb should be Karawara, not Karawatha.
Gosnells: You’ve got Chris Tallentire in bold… if bold means current member, he isn’t – it’s still Sheila McHale. Tallentire’s the ALP candidate for this election. Also, there’s a broken link to Kenwick (the abolished seat).
Vasse also has a broken link on the main page – there’s a capital V instead of lowercase v in the URL.
And for Cannington… Bill Johnston’s been in the papers a fair bit, surely there’s a better photo of him than that.
Great work Bird, those are corrected – except Bill Johnston, due to my scrupulousness (most of the time) about copyright.
It’s becoming hard to see how the Queensland Liberals and Nationals can survive the rest of the week without developing a permanent and nasty split. The question of who will be Big Chief Pineapple still has them scratching their heads.
It has all the hallmarks of the last Queensland election where their problem was fighting between the Liberals and Nationals over who would be the Premier if the coalition had won. This whole process of merging was supposed to solve this dilemma but it seems to have solved nothing.
Seems like both parties are about to descend into a farcical circus of delay and uncertainty which is exactly what they have done with policy development for the past decade. Perhaps the merger will become a going concern the day after their tree clearing policy is announced but I can’t see that policy being announced before the end of the week either.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24057292-5006786,00.html
Predictable… more Messiah Complex eminating from the News Limited boiler room.
Malcolm Colless in today’s Australian asks “What is the government offering with its ETS Green Paper”:
… as if making the planet sustainable environmentally for those we love and wish the best for is some kind of fuzzy, optional thing. What a bloody cynic this man is.
Further on, he writes:
As I predicted, the first signs that the advertising campaign itself will be the issue, not the substance of its message.
Lastly we have The Murdoch Bootstrapping Campaign Of The Week: “Costello for PM”, which started in Saturday’s Weekend Australian, was editorialized in the Sunday Telegraph (”We need Costello”) and now is, apparently, established mainstream fact in the the Wally-World of News Limited’s opinion orifices. No chance of a “spin machine” operating at Chateau Murdoch… of course not, only Labor has one of those:
Fat chance of that Malcolm Colless. Costello has had his chances. He’s a lazy, gutless, wannabee, afraid of his own shadow and totally unsuited to lead a lunchtime tip football team, much less an entire nation. Without a tame Speaker to gag his opponents he’s just another loudmouthed tall-guy, alternating between shouting from the bleachers and maintaining an enigmatic silence. In short, he has nothing useful to say except, “I resign.”
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/yoursay/index.php/theaustralian/comments/listless_lib_leaders/
Speaking of Queensland, there was a spot on Premier Anna Bligh in Australian story on the ABC last night. It seemed reasonably balanced. One thing I never realised was that, since Kirner was defeated, no woman has ever won an election to be Premier in Australian history! I hope that changes soon….
#101
I think I prefer Karawatha. Sounds like it might be on the banks of Gitche Gumee. Here’s a pic from the good streets.
http://theworstofperth.com/2008/07/04/blood-sausage/
Out with it man! tell us how you really feel about Tip
Bushfire Bill
#104
I do not see the point of wasting 22 mill on add campaign if its to sell why emmissions need reducton My post #98 shows polling that that point is already sold to voters
But the adds & Paper will still miss the point I’ve mentioned , that Malcolm Colless you quoted has now highlighted Rudd & ETS are saying there will be less ‘dirty’ energy available to use & it will cost more (via ETS & reduced permits) So ‘theoreticaly’ there will be less ‘dirty’ enegy to run refrigerators & aircons etc for voters & less dirty energy available to run machines for bussiness ‘Theoreticaly’ Rudd is saying he’s taking us back to the Stone Age , (since behavoural change & energy efficencys won’t offset the enrgy lost differense) That’s the “hole” , I’ve been suggesting Ruddy has left open for voters to doubt whats going to happen to their refrigerators etc
Of couse , the Rudd man is not taking us back to a ‘theoretical Stone Age at all Instead he has a 20% renewal Target by 2020 , plus a yet undefined schem to have R E up to 45,000 gigawatt-hours by then Part of that undefined R E scheme I suspect is the Rudd “process” & part of his schem probably relies on his various ‘Paper’ options listed incl rebates etc But the MAJORITY of the ‘transition’ to R E , I suspect relyes on the ETS through ‘market forses’ , itself creating the new private enterprise renewable industries I doubt those ‘market forses’ , given the Wall Street collapse experience , will produce enough new R E industries with sufficent replacement of dirty’ energy power , that bussiness & consumers will demand to breavailable & be able to use So
I’ve sufggested a Ruddy new Snowy River type scheme , a super solar grid , so that the figerators , aircons & machines can still run in 2020 , rather than as I suspect , still be forced to use ‘dirty’ energy (if insufficent R E industries are created ) Also I don’t thingk 20% R E by 2020 is high enough Perhaps there is nothing to wory about at all
Hi William
Your WA 2008 election guide is great.
Is Dawesville missing for a good reason?
Ronnie, I agree with your “Big Idea” idea. Something to sell as a bright future, rather than a dour slog against the odds, ending in misery and horse-and-buggy days all over again. It’s a matter of how you slant it. A giant solar farm sounds about right, with new decentralized urban development to go along with it. I don’t think Rudd has really “sold” us on Climate Change yet. A lot of what we see in the polls is good faith and momentum therefrom. I don’t like “faith” as a foundation for a major political and economic platform.
The polls are just that… polls. Your assumption (and the assumption of many others here) is that the public has irrevocably made up its mind and won’t change it, no matter what the Climate Deniers (disguised as ETS critics, like Colless, Bolt and just about everybody else at Chateau Murdoch) spout as economic “wisdom”. These people are telling us that we need to know more about the ETS and where we’re going on Climate Change. They’re whispering in our ears that it’s “OK” to whinge about saving the planet, because in our heart of hearts we know Global Warming is a crock. It’s easy to just write these poisonous writers off as total lunatics, in the face of the polls you quote.
But there are two arguments against that.
One is that I think there’s a kernel of truth in what they say. I’ve yet to meet more than two people in the one place at the one time who understand the concept of an ETS, or alternatively who don’t believe the future for us all holds nothing but gloom and doom, ETS or no ETS.
The second is that we deserve to know the full truth, and to have something to look forward to, other than Rudd’s quasi-Calvinistic “blood, sweat and tears”. Bugger the polls. We should be fully informed and energized. Rudd owes us hope. That’s why we elected him. To go off a few polls that are showing people are – sort-of – convinced is lazy, especially if you believe this will apply forever more. 70% ”
believers” is one thing. That there are still up to 30% of punters out there who don’t believe a word of Global Warming is a disgrace.
Opinions change, especially where there’s ignorance fuelling them.. ignorance from both sides. One Rudd’s side the voters are essentially fuzzy about just what the future under a Climate Change economy holds for us.
On the Doubters’ side, the voters are hearing the siren song that this is all just touchy-feely, inner-glow, feel-good stuff. Too much of this – without rebuttal – and they might start to believe it’s all a rort, or a tax-grab by Rudd, just like the Doubters are saying, not something that needs to be done and done fast.
I find it touching, but not reassuring, that there is so much simplistic faith in a paid advertising campaign doing the trick. Even here at this blog this is the case. We’ve just seen how the Work Choices campaign failed, despite some of the best spruiking minds in the country being behind it. The Global Warming/Climate Change campaign can fail too.
Leadership by advertising campaign is no excuse for actual leadership. I thought we’d learnt that lesson, but clearly not. Relying on poll results that actually show a slight diminuition of support from record highs, and anyway uncover a large section of the community still as Doubters gives me no comfort at all.
Bushfire
I think the analogy with worstchoices was apt in a sense-you cant put lipstick on a pig BUT CC is not a pig so the “lipstick” aint necessary
what is needed is to make CC a mainstream issue WITH the MSM -not joe or joeline but the trogs in control.
Worstchoices was shite pure and simple and the grassroots campaign ensured that the public was kept alarmed and bloody alert about the loss of basic rights-so no matter what the MSM said it never gained a foothold.
Conversely CC has been on the boil for yonks among the grassroots -the issue is how to legitimise it to the MSM-voila sell it via the MSM
ps most joes and joelins know CC is real in some aspect,only the MSM have to be dragged into the equations.
And just how do you propose to do that, seeing as “most joes and joelins” rely on the MSM for their daily news input? We’re talking here about a group of people that only just figured out Big Brother was a crock of $hit and wasn’t worth watching.
In the meantime the MSM were prepared to dish it up to them.
Bushfire
as i said the move is on now to sell it to the MSM itself,the punters aint dumb when an issue that affects their core standards comes into play viz worstchoices
BB @ 109
Good observations.
The issue needs to be de-politicised to allow the partisan 30% to be objective – most of whom are opposing it because Labor has the initiative, not on the merits of the arguments.
I remember all too well the Australia Card (60%+ support at one time). It was embraced by the conservatives until they realised there was a great political opportunity in opposing it – and so spawned the successful scare campaign and an evil looking Labor as a result. This isn’t a comment on the AC but an observation of the political imperatives (for both sides) which accompany any major programme.
GW is a different beast altogether but, as you’ve stated BB, Rudd needs to work much harder to convince – and inform – more Australians but, more importantly, shame the Libs into bipartisanship. If the Libs jump on board the 30% will largely disappear.
I’d also like to point out that a lot of the opposition to the WCs campaign was simply against the government using taxpayers’ money for it.
Colless, in his column, is already characterizing the campaign as a “spin machine” thing, i.e. “not real”.
It was plain as the nose on anyone’s face that this tactic – attack the campaign itself, ignore its substance – would be used.
There are people opposed to Rudd. They will use any rationalization to oppose him. “Hypocrisy” in running an ad campaign and “using taxpayers’ money” would rank high in the list of possible reasons why this campaign can fail. A 30 second TV commercial (or even a 60 second one, or even a 90 minute-long one like An Inconvenient Truth) isn’t enough to fully (or indeed, even partially) inform anyone if they don’t have goodwill towards it, or switch off because they “always vote Liberal”.
Well Bushfire Bill
You hav a valid point re polls , i actualy deleted the 2nd half of my propposed post , which dealt with th polls first I wanted to establish a view we are ‘theoreticaly’ going to the Stone Ages , becaue the ‘dirty’ energy is to be reuced via ETS & reduced permits And that ‘market forses’ supposedly are going to self create these magical R E industries to make up for the ‘dirty’ enegy that ETS cuts out The point being that efficiencys , behavoural change & govt incentive rebates etc to switch solar won’t make up the shortfall Furthermore gambling on carbon catiure & storage techno is just that , a gamble that may or may not occur
Now to the bit i didn’t address , the politcs & the polls I’m quoting polls showing CC support NOW , and gusface is essentially right there is solid suport NOW However but I think that CC suport ‘erodable’ both by the Libs on politcal grounds & by rich powerful vested intrerests like big Oily Exxons & big energy companies like Coal Co’s What the scare Lib campaign will be , and silky toff Turn has already startd , is we the ‘oz’ are ’suckers’ , the scare will be at the hip pocket & job security , the scare can be the rest of the world are not moving as fast , so Rudd will export jobs to poluting countries There IS some validness in this as the US ain’t gonna move quick so ‘oz’ jobs could get exported EVEN to the US , the ultimate insult seeing they polute the earthwith gay abandons , and be exported to other dev & less dev Countries
So give a voter a start choice between his CC heart & his hip pockeys and his job security , he will go for the hip pocket mullah and his job securitys , electoral history proves this This could be a reverse wedge on Labor , a reverse workchoices scare campaign , Libs can advertise the Libs are protecting ‘oz’ jobs , whereas th Lib spin line can be Labor are exporting them a suckers , instead of a Lib plan of a realistic phase in like the rest of the world And Big Oily Exxon , big Energy co’s can run similar scare campaigns
But IF Labor offers the ‘Snowy’ CC grid , its an economic & politcal counter to such a job security scare campaign because Rudd can say there’s dem jobs in the super solar grid the ‘oz’ voters can see available , industries growing from it & so more jobs , and a realistic economic future for voters pockeys & job securitys , plus a ‘oz’ vision and plus a good CC heart THEN the Libs & big Oily Exxon will be shown for what they are …yesterdays mens , and yeaterdayys dirty poluting options to bequeath to our kids
William should re name this site the ‘Super Solar Grid’ ship
“I find it touching, but not reassuring, that there is so much simplistic faith in a paid advertising campaign doing the trick. Even here at this blog this is the case. We’ve just seen how the Work Choices campaign failed, despite some of the best spruiking minds in the country being behind it.”
One big difference is that Workchoices didn’t start off with a 70% “approval” rating. Advertising works best when it massages a belief or perception. Workchoices was viewed with widespread suspicion from the word go, if for no other reason than the way Howard brought it in (no pre-warning).
You don’t get to the great “unwashed” by having a political talking head telling everyone “this is the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth”. They will firstly not take any notice and secondly, those that do, will not believe a politician.
Rudd maybe clever but he is not a miracle worker.
With 70% believing in CC the onus is on the non believers to change that perception. Why would anyone think that would prevail with a LARGE Kernel of truth supporting CC? Surely it is safer to believe and do something than not. Even if you don’t fully believe surely it is safer to do something for your kids than not. IMHO the default position will always be the safer course for the kids sake as it was in the Workchoices debate.
Err, are we forgetting the Libs support this CC advertising campaign? How could they possibly oppose it with any credibility?
I must admit I see the CC polling different from the way some see it here. I interpreted the “low” 58% approval on Rudd’s handling of CC as suggesting that the government was not doing enough rather than too much. A recent poll by Essential research put the number of those who thought the government was not doing enough on CC at 56% (4% too much) and that view was strongest with Coalition voters.
Rudd’s biggest danger is of being seen to be all talk and no action, rather than from the Libs line. The Liberals’ position makes no sense electorally, it is for internal reasons they are pushing it.
As for the effect of the MSM on the attitude of the punters re EST, if the MSM had had their way last year Rudd wouldn’t be in office today. Over a short period they have minimal effect on a perception that has taken sometime to build up.
The world news services and even our local news outlets have, over a long period, established in Australia this 70% CC credibility, with the sceptics such as Bolt in full swing all that time.
Nelson not ruling out handing over to Costello! Crikey! What some people will do to survive!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/22/2310826.htm
Has anyone read Julie Bishop’s blog in The Age today on CC. Not getting the comments she would have liked. It sounds very similar to the line that Bolt was pushing on Insiders – i.e. the Libs will start to expound on the denier theme with the help of unnamed socalled experts.
BB – I think the Workchoices advertising is different. It was a dog of a policy and our grandkids first alerted us to the problems they were having with employers and AWAs. Being retired for a few years now my hubby and I had no idea of its vileness for them.
Grandkids have also alerted us to CC over the past 10 years. Our friends say they hear a lot about it from their grandkids too. The grandkids are not MSM readers or watchers – it all comes from the web, school and their mates. They know what fossil fuels are and know what they do. Not sure how much they want to pay for ETS but they are more aware than the oldies.
So if those ads help the old dodderers who don’t have young ones around to understand CC it will be money well spent.
Perhaps the next round of ads can show exactly how we can get a supergrid type project up and running. I agree that Rudd and Wong should be spouting that kind of project before too long.
I would have thought that with Rudd’s continued high personal approval in the face of our MSM ‘journalists’ that the general public is highly sceptical of their attempt at a ‘narrative’ (narrative individual thinking avoidance mechanism).
Despite 10 years of divide and conquer I reckon the community did come together a little last November, and are looking for someone other than themselves to blame for CC – big business fits the bill at present, along with any politician prepared to side with them.
I’m going to agree with the Shrike here.
on advertising – there’s a well known saying in my little world:
“you can’t polish a fresh turd”
Workchoices is destined to remain fresh for a long time. Even 17% interest has only recently gained an outer crust – has anyone seen it mentioned since November?
Easy. If they think (or are convinced) there’s a few percentage points in it in a few polls, they’ll think of a way to oppose the campaign and damn the charges of hypocrisy. I mean, if Turnbull can look the viewers straightin the face and say that a 5c per litre fuel reduction is absolutely pointless (which is his core belief) but that it would be good “gesture” politics,and is therefore mandatory, then he (and the rest of his party) can say anything.
If they can complain about Labor gagging debate in the Parliament, then they can complain about anything.
If they can claim that no country should act (on the basis of not wanting to be first), and bugger the consequences of not acting (i.e. global fireball), then they can claim anything. (Just on that point, I’m surprised that no interviewer has asked Nelson just which country should act first on Climate Change, and how he would convince them to do so if he reuses to let Australia practise what it preaches of other countries.)
Very easy for the Libs to find some fake debating point and to pull out of the whole CC thing, box, dice and bi-partisanship.
I think you are right there Piping Shrike @ 119.
The voter’s don’t want to be sold on an ETS, they want the government to pick up the ball and start running on real world solutions to climate change. If Ruddster came out with a plan to convert our power generation to zero emission sources and said to do so would cost x amount for each household, this would be a lot easier to sell to people than an ETS.
Oh dear:
http://news.theage.com.au/national/nelson-wont-rule-out-costello-handover-20080722-3j4q.html
I guess when you’ve got no obvious messiah, well, you just invent one, eh?
Hmm – all the recent retirees voted Nelson, not Turnbull, last time didn’t they, not to mention the WA members who were stuck in the air? Lucky the LP doesn’t have factions and everyone votes with their conscience.
Chuckle chuckle chuckle.
Ministers to lose FOI blocking power
http://news.theage.com.au/national/ministers-to-lose-foi-blocking-power-20080722-3j4c.html
good
“Looks like where there’s smoke there’s blue cod”. All that recent speculation re Costello in the MSM might have been soundly based. Nelson is preparing to run up the white flag.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/22/2310826.htm
“If Peter decides that he is going to continue his political career and serve the people of Higgins…”
So what’s he been doing for 8 months?
Thanks Dr Good, Dawesville is here …
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wa2008/dawesville.htm
… but I do appear to have left it off my pendulum page, don’t I. Will correct that.
Please Peter, take the leadership. Let’s put this myth that he can win the next to bed. Anyone who saw “Insiders” knows he is not as popular as some would have us believe.
oops – ” win the next election”
122 The Piping Shrike – the only thing I got from that article is that Nelson would be prepared to have Costello in the shadow ministry. He’s said that before.
The old “he hasn’t ruled it out so it must be ruled in” trick.
It has been brought to our attention, that several people are making false statements about the US site, it would be appreciated if they refrain.
perhaps this is another example of rudd playing with the oppositions mind
costello wouldnt be undergoing a certain amount of ambassador envy
what with dolly and timbo out on the world stage would he?
delusions of grandeur and all that
Turning Worm @ 126:
Hear! Hear! A big project. “We’re goin’ to the Moon!” Throw in local solar power generation in selected sites – it all helps, there’s no need for one approach – and you’re on a winner, your Ruddstership.
The voters need this to get them to accept the ETS unanimously.
I’d suspect that if they tried to hand the Liberal Leadership to Costello he would find a way to side step it again. Just like he did during APEC and following the last Federal Election. He is just not up to the job and knows it better than his urgers.
On a more serious topic it looks like big changes are coming to the Federal Freedom of Information system. No doubt it will free up a lot of papers from the Howard era that were kept under lock and key too. Wonder if it will lead to a rash of resignations from Howard sycophants in the Federal Public Service.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/freedom-of-information-laws-to-be-abolished/2008/07/22/1216492417946.html?page=2
My posts today #110 the case for a Super Solar Grid on enegy needs grounds) and #116 the case for a Super solar grid on politcal and economic grounds , did NOT mention the MSN delkiberatly Just like workchoices , the CC issue bypasses whatever the MSN ever says and whatr the silk toff turn/big Oily Exxons ever try to scare us with PROVIDED our CC message/product is realisticly tangible
so forgets the MSN , the Janet , the Shanigans , we have the ruddy at only 54% satisfaction on CC ands 38% against (rfer my #98 Nielsen poll) Suggest the voters are saying we’re sold in our hearts Ruddy , voters are not mugs , they know emmissions hav to be cut , but only 54% satisfaction indicates quit the Ruddspeak They aren’t interested in how ETS works , they want to know about the mullah , a plan , & a replacement scheme for dirty coal Put up a super solar grid and a cost & its saleable But put up hot air , carbon air & an unexplanable ETS vs a Libs scare on lost jobs & higher costs , and voters see another armanoi pollie talking lovely words in far off Canberra and no reality tangable action
Ruddy you hav to walk the talk , the super solar grid , and THEN the MSN are irrelevant , as are the Libs and the big Oily Exxons
Just a small matter William I don’t think Vince (WA North West seat) was ever mayor of vincent, his dad currently is and has been for sometime.
“Wonder if it will lead to a rash of resignations from Howard sycophants in the Federal Public Service.”
Could that include those involvd with the AWB fiasco
Quite right Jasmine, now corrected.
(From Vienna)
Bull Butter!
Quote from Michelle Grattan’s report on AC Nielsen Poll
“Taken from Thursday to Saturday, after Wednesday’s green paper on carbon pollution reduction, the national poll of 1400 found 68% willing to bear extra costs to deal with climate change, 77% wanting action regardless of the world, and 54% satisfied with Mr Rudd’s handling of the issue.
Only 39% said they understood emissions trading, and most of those grasped it only fairly well. Another 39% said they understood it slightly and 21% not at all. Despite this, 67% supported it.”
From the above quote it can be taken there are 60% of people that only understand slightly or not at all what is being proposed by Rudd. Other polls say that “Rudd is not doing enough” but I do not see how this conclusion can have any depth as 60% of the people have little or no idea what is being proposed? But Grattan did say that “Support for the emissions trading scheme was strongest among those who understood it to a greater or lesser extent, and lowest among people who did not understand it at all. ” This indicates the more people knew about the policy the more they supported it. But the fact that “people wanted federal intervention on petrol prices” may indicate that there was a limit to how much extra they willing to pay as a result of the ETS.
The “low”(!) 54% approval of Rudd’s handling I took to refer to the fact that the Gov’t has not got the details of the proposal across to the people. It is the most obvious conclusion given the context of Grattan’s report. Advertising is necessary at this stage and no-one can say it does not work. The comparison with workchoices and the then Gov’t advertising of it is a poor comparison as many were alreadsy quite suspicious of the policy. A more valid comparison is the Union’s advertising campaign which worked extremely well. Good advertising at this stage will certainly assist the Gov’t in educating the people very much but it will not be enough.
The process of implementing the policy is only half way through. We have the final report to come in September by Garnaut and the White Paper is due in December. Since we have only just had the Green Paper the issue is in the public court for discussion. We are in the consulting stage of the process and the Gov’t position is not yet set in concrete. By the way I believe that the date for submissions by the public is to be returned is 10 September.
In my thinking, I would not be surprised to see Rudd presenting the White Paper in December himself, or at least have a part in the presentation. This would seem to be the appropiate time for any “big picture” speeches as the Gov’t position would then be settled and after people had been exposed to advertising, and it is at the end of the process.
I cannot believe the “naysayers” will have much impact. People have been exposed to the issue of CC for some years now and they seem to have made up their minds that they want the Gov’t to act. The fact that Grattan’s report says 77% want Aust to go ahead even if the rest of world did not indicates people want a CC policy even if they do not yet know the details. By the way I have never seen Colless write anything but anti Labor propaganda. Is he an ex Lib hack?
I believe the Process is being handled well but I prefer to reserve my judgement until it is completed. We are just not used to this sort of positive treatment by a Gov’t. Can anyone remember if Howard presented a Green Paper before he introduced his Workchoices Policy (the one he did not mention at the 2004 election)? No, we had nothing at all from Howard.
William Bowe
great WA site , don’t wish to add to your work so its just a thought This afternoon i was going to compare a few AEC Federal Electon seats results between 2004 7 2007 i wnt to the 2004 menu and by seat there is the link to the AEC site Howevr since you’ve linked it , the AEC miust have changed there 2004 links beause on 9 2004 seats i tried the AEC link came up as not avalable Now on the 2007 Federal elkecton menu there’s no links nor on the WA one menu Rather than all th work of linking by seat , was wondering if any benefit in eg WA site having a master page with AEC link of last electon/electons results Thought only
Does anyone have a link to the ETS ads? I have yet to see one. Brenda says they are “fluffy”.
Doug
#145
re your first point All the Neilson poll results on CC were listed in my #98 , the key one is 54% satisfaction with how Rudd has handled CC and 38% AGAINST Given the same Poll had Labor 2PP at 54% to 46% , basicaly Labor/Greens the faithful are happy and Lib voters are not That is a poor rsult of not communicating a tangable dirty energy replacement ‘vision’ of what will be , we are not talking about contentous IR or socialised medicine , but CC and Lib voters aren’t mugs , they can see CC too In fact the 54% is well below Rudds overall PPM of 65% Most voters will never understand the ETS anyway , but what they understand is emmissions hav to be cut , but they still want there friges & aircons in full energy use as now
re your second point , “more valid comparison is the Union’s advertising campaign which worked extremely well” Negative politcl adds world wide are proven winners against ‘positive’ politicl adds , so it was always going to work especially as W/C was a turkey likewise negative adds against CC claiming jobs will be exported & scaring voters job security will be at least as powrful than a feel good CC positive adds , without a tangable product to ’sell’
re your 3rd point You mention ‘Green” to “White” Papers , well tthe Green paper fulfilled its function It does set out the Govt’s broad ‘vision’ in RE and emmission target terms It does set out the govt’s prefferred options re rebates etc Unlessa there are is a dramatic political or economic hole found from the submissions , White papers can become Green Papers with the margins altered , as the vision and the prefferred options ar already set out as do all green papers The RET schem details has to wait till next year & that transition data will be crucual but you ar now seeing the essential broad CC policy , subject to submissions the ‘hole’ suggested is no tangible enegy replacement scheme & reliance on mainly ETS to do so This is indeed the time to change the philosphical basis of the Green Paper , otherwise thats what the White paper essentially will be broadley If you are not keen on a super solar grid and feel ETS will evolve the new R E industries & at the necessary enegy replacement levels lost by ETS , then the Green P{aper does that , subject to th RET details transitionary (if feasible) being implemented
Are we living on a fantasy island? All these talks of Cossie making a come back to bump off Nelson is pure nonsense. Kimbo suffered greatly with the “no ticker” tag, he lost two elections. In fact, Kimbo actually has ticker, is just that he appears, especially for the media, to be no ticker.
Whereas Cossie is actually the reverse of Kimbo. He has NO ticker, but appears to be, especially for the media, the tough guy. Let see:
1. 1994 – After Hewson sacking, Cossie had a chance to be the Leader. He chickened out and handed the leadership to Dolly. The rest is history.
2. 2006 – After sniping and whingeing about Howard for years, he had the perfect chance to do a Keating and take the leadership from Howard. Again, he chickened out.
3. 2007 – After election lost, the leadership was offered to him on a plate like the finger licking 24 spices KFC chicken. Again, he chickened out.
4. 2008 – The corporate world knows he has no ticker and does not want him. As Rudd said today that Howard/Cossie never took the “tough decisions would be required for the long term and the policies of the former Howard Government had served Australia well during the good times but were downright dangerous for the bad times”.
5. 2008 – So he is writing his memoir. Has he got the ticker to tell all, to tell the truth ala Latham’s Diary. Or will it be “I love youse all” type memoir. If he does not have the juicy bits, it will not sell. So no ticker, no money.
6. 2008 – Has he got the ticker to put Nelson out of his misery and deny Turnbull out of his self-importance, whom he despises.
The punters have passed him by and judged him to be of no ticker. if Rudd doesn’t get him, Julia will. Bring him back.
But I thought Brenda was bi-partisan on the ad campaign?
If they know no shame, there’s no drainpipe too small for them to scamper up. “Hypocrisy” is just another word to masters of spin.
Incidentally, Murdoch’s bootstrapping of Costello reaches new “heights”: ABC Sydney TV tonight is running a long piece on it. Lotsa interviews, lotsa faces. Three minutes so far.
Expect Murdoch Heaven tomorrow to refer to “new reports” on the subject.
It is important to bear in mind that those who are not satisfied with his performance may include some Green/Labor voters who don’t think he went far enough. Suffice it to say, those kinds of voters are very unlikely to drift to the Coalition, whose environmental credentials make Union Carbide seem decidely lime in comparison.
147 ruawake here is a Getup ad and the original Government ads.
http://www.duncans.tv/2007/getup-cleverer-on-climate-change-in-australia
From Andrew Bolts Blog: If Michael Short can doubt, so can the Liberals
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/if_michael_short_can_doubt_so_can_the_liberals/
I like the transcript from ABC Adelaide 891 which interviewed Dr David Evans, who once helped the Australian Greenhouse Office build models predicting terrible warming.
Interesting.
That was so last year,eh?
“Does anyone have a link to the ETS ads? I have yet to see one.”
Ru
I’ve seen one, they are a bit fluffy, the feel good type, basically saying how we have to do these changes to save the planet.
On CC, I’m not sure about the science and what it means, but I do equate increased pollution through industry and people (eg cars aircons etc) with having an effect on the climate.
There has been resistance to pollution reducing measures, cost to industry jobs lost are the usual scare campaigns. We have seen CFC’s abolished which was going to increase the price of fridges, freezers and aircons,leaded petrol gone, which probably upset blokes like ute man and measures to stop excess pollution by industries and vehicles. Yet the anti-pollution measures have had general support with the current affairs programs highlighting the pollution from industries that people had to put up with in places like Mt Isa and Kembla.
As for getting China, India and USA onside, I remember when new emission controls were brought in on vehicles with the support of the Australian car makers. I was quite surprised that they supported it until it was pointed out to me that the new measures meant no more VW Beatles could be imported because they failed to meet the new rules. Meant the Australian car makers got rid of a major rival and as a bonus looked like caring greenies.
India and China probably view CC measures as a way of restricting their production and the USA doesn’t want to play because their industries are under so much pressure.
Funny thing with China, they are bringing in their own pollution control measures for the Olympics to try and improve the air quality in terms of breathability and visability. Be interesting to see the before and after results and whether the Chinese government and Chinese people think that maybe it should be continued and expanded after the Olympics.
Surely it must dawn on the Liberal party soon that they need to end speculation over the leadership?
Costello could end his bit of the problem by saying I will not contest the leadership – he won’t because in my view he is happy causing mischief.
Brenda says Costello will get a front bench job if he asks for one – but surely the only job he really wants is Brenda’s or maybe Malcolms. What senior shadow minister is going to get dumped?
(Thanks steve)
Costello should wait until several months before an election then become opp leader, let the people forget about him for a while. All this talk about Costello is raising just rasing expectations no one can live up to that.
JoM
For Costello to become leader he needs the backing of his party, I doubt he has the numbers now (as usual) or if he has it will be only a couple of votes.
This goes to the Liberal – Conservative divide, Tip is too “left” for many.
139
steve
This freer FOI will finally put paid to Tip’s political career. He applied conclusive certificates to bracket creep (think that was an error in his budget he just decided to hide it) and realised losses in foreign currency speculation due to his bumbling.
The day the new regime is in force the people that wanted that info will be applying to finally get it.
Bye bye Tip
From #153 John of Melbourne
You might also find interesting Tim Lambert’s demolition job on Evans.
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/
Fred I can’t find anything.
JoM, and other bludgers, just a brief visit. Bring back Tip! Bring him back whenever you like! That last ‘called for’ meeting with the press, during which he was extremely rude to Michelle Grattan, will remain with many as the mark of the man. Don’t like it. Unacceptable behaviour.
Jom
Scroll down from freds link or try
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2008/07/the_australians_war_on_science_16.php
HSO if he becomes opposition leader Michelle can go for him then. Isn’t she due to retire soon?
Catrina,
Today’s actions are a start, but my minimum conditions for posting remain. You know what is required.
EStJ
BTW, think the Fed libs. are a mess. Labor could do better, but bugger, they’ve inherited an absolute nightmare, economically and ecologically, and particularly, globally.
The more I’ve looked at the global climate change information, the more I’m inclined to decide that we’re stuffed, and that the political process won’t help our kids and grandkids. It’s not that it’s particularly the fault of the politicians, they have limited power. It’s more that people are greedy.
#165 ESJ, are you having a blogging affair with the one women yapping lady? do tell.
Peter Martin gives the pay the polluters theory a nice old slap across the face.
“This column is about the coal-fired power industry, but it could have been about the asbestos industry, or the tobacco industry
Never once on the countless occasions that Australian governments have restricted the sale of tobacco have they felt compelled to compensate the manufacturers for ‘’significant reductions in their profitability”.
Why would they? The cigarette manufacturers knew what was coming (and had decided to invest anyway) and were blessed with rusted-on customers.
But there was another more important reason why our governments didn’t offer ”compensation” to the industry they were trying to cripple.
To do it would have been to accept that the existing tobacco manufacturers had continuing ”rights” that the government had to buy out in order to proceed.
It would have helped create a precedent that would have undermined the right of Australia’s parliaments to act as they saw fit.
It would have undermined our sovereignty as voters…”
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/07/tuesday-column-wongs-gift-to-lobbyists.html
A gentleman never kisses and tells Finns.
John of Melbourne 153 Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 7:23 pm
“From Andrew Bolts Blog: If Michael Short can doubt, so can the Liberals”
There are also scientists who believe horses would win a formula 1 race against cars We do hav otherwise “Uni educated” people who believe in witch craft , of which Andrew Bolte is a believer But any objectivve person can simply use there eyes re CC For the cdoubters read the world’s top 400 IPCCC Reports , this is a collective group of the worlds 400 best accross all politcl divides , and only a fool would ignore so many
My conservative adversary ,
credibility given is participation in a circus , if you give a Bolte re CC the semblance of undeserving respect , it reconfirms his behavour anti CC beliefs
Finns, Catrina insisted on plausible deniability, probably due to fear of Charlie in one of his showy rages.
ESJ, methinks you got competition. Your old matey is not happy!!
168
steve
Interesting argument, but a tad disingenuous: what public good does tobacco consumption produce?
Comparing tobacco to say, coal fired electricity is so flawed it’s ludicrous.
The problem is that the current infrastructure is so biased towards coal in most places, that alternatives will find it hard to raise the capital to compete. This needs to be addressed, but to twist a well known metaphor about taxation, without the goose hissing too loudly.
Therein lies the problem: we want ‘clean energy’ but the price will have to be adjusted gradually so that alternatives can get into the game (often with long lead times), and there’s no point driving up costs too steeply and killing off industrial production in the short term.
I don’t see the tobacco and coal industries as analogous at all, but it sounds good on first reading (just).
Jovial monk
#159
spot on , Keating described mr Smirks budget surplus perfectly If you overtax voters , give only part of it back later but offset it by bracket creep , and spend less than that on consumption , any 15 yr old can end up with a surplus’s He said Smirk ignoored strucutral reform & infrastucture investment to achieve surplus’s , at th expense of our current account deficit & long term growth BUT did you think best of all was Howards ‘concession’ speech linking Smirk to all LCP policys ie. incl W/C ,Hhoward pointedly only took responsibility for the electon loss itself
Harry
#162
“It’s not that it’s particularly the fault of the politicians, they have limited power. It’s more that people are greedy”
Harry you’re letting all Pollies off litely there They could lead & ONLY as an example say we want a super solar grid, & ’sell’ it , make a stand
Steve
#168
brillant article , i’ll post the balance of Garnaut’s argument , that the govt has partly ignored
“Among the reforms for which Garnaut pointed out Australian businesses have not been compensated were the floating of the dollar, the introduction of the goods and services tax and the massive tariff cuts that Garnaut himself oversaw as Bob Hawke’s economic adviser in the 1980s.
By the same token he pointed out that there had been no tradition of taking away from businesses the extraordinary windfall gains that they had enjoyed as a result of government decisions, including cuts in the company tax rate.
In the case of emissions trading, businesses had been ”aware of the risks of carbon pricing for many years”. Many had ‘’sought to re-engineer their production processes to reduce their reliance on emissions”.
He must have been worried that the argument wasn’t getting through. In his draft report released just days before last week’s Government green paper, he devoted an entire appendix to applying the argument explicitly to coal-fired electricity generators.
There was ”no basis” for the claim that generators had a ”right to emit carbon dioxide and this right is being taken away by a policy change”.
As he put it ”governments always retain the absolute right to vary policy and industry is generally cognisant of the risk”.
After reading Dr David Evans…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24036736-7583,00.html
… he gives his game away in the last two paragraphs:
“The Labor Government is about to deliberately wreck the economy”
This sounded so good I’ll say it again in the last para…
“wrecking the economy”
Evans was in his job from 1999 to 2005 and stated “We scientists had political support, the ear of government, big budgets” and he claims to be an AGW adherent at the time – but not any more.
Sounds just a tad like the ubiquitous, lying, “I am a Labor (or Lib) supporter, you know, but will never vote for them again blah, blah.
Big budgets, ear of govt, political support for Climate Change research???
WTF – Howard was PM all this time!
Give us a break, Dave.
159 & 139
No doubt if they can access docos relating to the money exchange losses there could be some action at the O K corral.
Tip is on record on Lateline 2002 as stating, after treasury officials said in excess of $3billion, that no such losses occurred!
Maxine McKew just happened to be chairman.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/stories/s488779.htm
176
Here he is in April 2007, same stuff, but also trotting out the highly erroneous ‘cosmic ray’ thesis of Henrik Svensmark .(This is now so discredited it makes you question the motives of the said Dr):
http://backseatdriving.blogspot.com/2007/04/climate-skeptics-guest-post-why-david.html
Amigo Ronnie,
I think I now know why the Libs were and are still the CC skeptic.
They got a secret weapon. All we need are more of those Fuel Magic Pills from Firepower. In no time, it will increase fuel efficiency by 40% and reduce emission by 30%.
As TIM JOHNSTON, the Firepower entrepreneur was under the active patronage of Julie Bishop & Johnny Howard, they got nothing to worry about. They can solve the CC problem by simply popping pills.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/firepower-chief-had-dinner-with-howard/2008/07/14/1215887540796.html
Obviously recent conversion of Nelson into a CC skeptic must have something to do with the Magic Fuel Pills. As a medical doctor, he would know something about pills.
I pity Kevin Rudd and Penny Wong for doing it the hard way. I also pity Austrade and I am not related to John Finnin.
Gaffhook
the Australian Office of Financial Management is reported handling the transactions so you’d think there is a money trail of the losses Who would hav decided on one hand to abandon the 15 per cent cap on foreign debt holdings for 18 monts cause as that would need minuting and also that sounds like there were then losses , and they tried to ‘win’ back those losses with a biger ‘punt’ on the currency , and lost even more
When the nuclear physicists sort out nuclear fusion, all this climate change fluffing around is gonna look pretty silly. Just relax and let the scientists solve the problems created by the greedy consumers.
Diogenes ,
why cann’t they instead invent a cost effect super solar grid , then those fearful of nuclar power & nuke waste can get on the happy days solar ship Let the sun do all the work , its not going away
Diog, why wait for the physicists and scientists to sort out nuclear fusion thingo. Someone has done it already. His name is God and his masterpiece is called the Sun.
btw: do they allow you to escape from the gulag? i thought the harsh mistress is cracking her whip hard.
ronster and Finns
Solar grids can never be made “energy dense” enough to be of more than token efforts. True, the sun uses nuclear fusion but we can improve on what was a fairly crude model created quite some time ago.
Nuclear fusion uses hydrogen, not uranium. It has minimal meltdown potential compared to nuclear fission reactors. It also has fairly harmless waste products, mainly helium. There is a HUGE project in France to build a FUSION reactor. The Rodent, being anti-science and a cretin to boot, opted out of Oz being involved. Perhaps Ruddski could get us back in the 21st Century.
Australia should follow road to nuclear fusion
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/australia-should-follow-road-to-nuclear-fusion/2006/08/26/1156012783617.html?page=fullpage
Finns I suspect Diogenes is an entryist.
Diogenes
A US scientific plan is actualy to have a super solar grid The plan would supply 74% of ALL US electriity needs & 35 % of all US energy needs However it requires a longterm infrastructure project to complet The project is theoretcal ambitious , huge tracts of the US south west used to erect photovoltaic cells Excess daytime energy would be stored as compressed air in underground caverns to be tapped during nighttime hours , plus larg solar concentrator power plants also need building Then they’d construct adirect-current power transmission backbone to deliver solar electricity throughtout the US , at 420 billion cost So solar can be done at a cost of 1/2 of one years cost of the Iraq War
ESJ, a legend in her own mind already.
so sad, so soon.
as the harsh mistress is the moon.
Has the Devil successfully tempted MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai?
Put the Party hats on. We’ve all been invited.
“EIGHT months after being tossed on to the political scrap heap, John Howard is preparing for his first return to parliament to celebrate his government’s achievements.
Sydney talk-back radio host Alan Jones, recovering from prostate surgery, is being tipped to host a gala dinner in Parliament’s Great Hall on September 3. The architect of the controversial waterfront dispute, Peter Reith, and other Howard loyalists have also been invited.
But even before the RSVPs are in, some Liberal MPs are predicting a “night to forget”.
“Yeah, I will bring out all the old WorkChoices jokes,” one Liberal wag said of the $120-a-head dinner.
Mr Howard, who is making a mint on the global speakers’ circuit, will be the guest of honour along with his wife, Janette.”
“Put the Party hats on. We’ve all been invited.”
Steve , can we all please put on ’solar’ party hats to stick it up the rodent , as we drink his free beer & wines ?
Amigo FINNS
“Has the Devil (Mugabe) successfully tempted MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai?”
Hope not amigo , he needs to do a Mandella , in the long run Zimbarbwe would be better off By the way , those pre conditions set by our friend , surely they would include the lingos Gilligan Island mod. job specifications you posted ?
Ron, nothing is free. Just limit your excitement to $120 worth of amusement.
ESJ re # 165 The rising damp continued…
“GG, I’ll post it tomorrow night.”
Not a dry pair of pajamas in the house…
Have you put your recycle bin out?
Steve: The Road to Nowhere: AWB Indian Arrests & Other Tales…byo
celebrate his [Howard's] government’s achievements
Gunna be a mighty short party then. They’d be able to celebrate the GST, torturing several thousand
political prisonersrefugees and an illegal war during morning smoko, wouldn’t they?I trust they are going to be charged the full going rate on the hire of the hall.
Oops. Forgot the ignored interest rate rises!
The Brough honeymoon is over too I see. Hero to zero in a month.
“In the space of a month, former Howard government minister Mal Brough has gone from being touted as a possible conservative saviour in his home state of Queensland to being a potential conservative wrecker.
A little over a month ago, Brough stormed back into public life when he romped home in a ballot for the presidency of the Queensland Liberal Party. But that’s where his triumph ended. Brough had made a mark for himself as the straight-talking, military trained politician who led the politically popular intervention into the Northern Territory’s indigenous communities.
With the Queensland Liberal and National Parties on the cusp of merging, this was president Brough’s hour to prove he had a different skill set; as an organisational chief he now required attributes such as diplomacy, consultation and finessing. The job proved to be beyond him and his public failure has cast doubts on his future in politics. To put it simply, Brough has gone from hero to zero.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24055711-7583,00.html
Ron at 148
“Most voters will never understand the ETS anyway , but what they understand is emmissions hav to be cut , but they still want there friges & aircons in full energy use as now”
That is the crux of the problem facing the Gov’t and us. Even though the vast majority of people support the policy it is still basically unreal to many. Most people do not see too far ahead and they do not see why they should suffer now for the future which still seems unreal.
Polls are an indication of how people think but they do not measure the depth of their committment. It could still be very soft figures. While there are no targets and what the rise in cost will mean to each person, it is difficult to say for sure which way people will jump. We are still in “airy -fairy land” until this happens. The reaction of people to petrol prices is not hopeful.
As BB says the Libs are not afraid of being called hypocrits. If people changed their minds the Libs are quite capable of becoming full blown skeptics for political benefit. If this happens then the Libs and the people deserve each other. It is all right being in favour of a policy while someone else pays but sincerity is judged by how much one is willing to suffer personally.
My major point is that a Process is being followed by the Gov’t and to be fair we need to wait until it is finished before making a judgement. We are only half way through. And that polls which some people quote with almost religous fervour may not be real indicators of what people will eventually think. But the thing is people have a choice- do they ignore CC and blow everything for the present or do they vote for their own future and their childrens future by addressing the problem. The people will only have themselves to blame if they go the wrong way. They cannot scapegoat the politicians.
Whichever way things go eventually, we must try. I don’t believe there is any other choice.
Steve , reading the full article , Brough’s utter selfishnes to be Pres despite the rules of a plebisciite & his hypocracy is evident , Pres Brough or no merger and then to email mit far & wide ?
Ron, the problem is that all the current sitting members senators and have been guaranteed their seats without any preselection process and Brough wants to be cut in with a similar deal.
Steve 189
It looks like Howard is pretty fanatical about his legacy and how he will be remembered in history. Pity there may not be a planet to remember him because he and particularly Bush refused to do anything about CC.
It is all about perspective.
Far que! I typed a lengthy, earnest entreaty about the need for guys to be checked for incipient or existing signs of prostate cancer. Only to hit the wrong key and have my lengthy diatribe disappear.
Neither Sam Newman nor Alan Jones allude to the traumatic implications of a diagnosis of prostate cancer.
It is made to seem like a footy thing. Heroic. Blokes, you know. It is certainly not. Death in Gallipoli may be considered preferable.
I urge all you guys, even if your sport is quoits or croquet, the bottom line is, present it to your doctor.
Stand to be corrected, again on spelling.
Doug
#197
“Whichever way things go eventually, we must try. I don’t believe there is any other choice.”
Agree with you entirely Doug , we must try Agree the polls may be ’soft’ particullarly the 77% one , sort of a motherhood question Yes the lbs are hypocrites and in fact earlier today i posted I think they’ll run a CC scare campaign around job security , jobs exported & ‘oz’ are suckers moving ahead of the rest of the world , so accept Rudd has to be measured politcally & economically What initally aroused my concern that i posted a few days ago was the free permits , i knew Garnaut was opposed in principal and Steve’s excellent link at #163 explains far better than i tried i feel the big Oily Exxons ar trying to buy time & Penny has given them that in timing & free permits , seems against Garnauts pref Perhaps as you say , the ‘process’ will deliver more favourable details however i remain skeptical after the free permits and particularly the absence in the REt scheme objects of a tangable enegy replacement sourse , other than rebates as incentives on one hand and ‘market forses’ on the other ‘creating’ the new R E industries enegy replacement
Its an issue that if not handled right could be turned on Rudd , by the above scare attacks and the voters not seeing a tangable enegy source vision for the moment rudd has played the politcs brilliantly , but voters simply (greedily) expect a solution that may involve more cost , but not less available enegy to use , which is why i’ve sort of pushed the solar grid firmly (and 2nd pref the nuclar fussion reactor using hydrogen , low waste mentioned by Diogenes , either way with govt leadership , scrutiny & involvement
Doug , you said ” do they ignore CC and blow everything for the present or do they vote for their own future and their childrens future by addressing the problem.” Sgree with you , The opportunity to influence is via subs presently , guess i’m looking for a more bolder tangable “Snowy River’ enegy 7 have less faith than you in the beaucrats
that link was #168 not 163
Crickey, I’m not sure if it’s his prostate, but Dennis certainly has something up his arse
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rudd_gets_final_word/
Hate to say I told youse so:
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/critics-slam-9m-green-ad-campaign-20080722-3jcy.html
It’’s not whether the charges are true, or whether the opposition is being hypocritical itself (they’ve never had any problem being that) in making them. It’s that the 30% who are holding a partisan objection to Global Warming being real are being given permission to go on denying. They can just write it off, not as a failed campaign, but as “more fluffy, hypocritical, ineffective Rudd spin”.
$9 million dollars down the toilet, wasted on the people the government needs to get on side.
Incalculable millions of political capital wasted, annoying even further those who already don’t want to listen and need an excuse not to.
It may feel good to be able to call the government’s opponents wankers and hypocrites in turn, but that’s just name-calling. They may be just that. But this ad campaign – which the opposition allegedly supported but which they have no compunction criticising anyway – has become the issue:
“Just more government bull$hit. They’re all the same… politicians”. I can hear it now out there in Voterland.
What a waste.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you “Work Choices, Mark II”.
I too think the $9m green ad campaign is a waste! Doesn’t Rudd realise that it’s still over three years to the next election! How dare they advertise something for the public good this far out from an election. Especially when it has only 77% support…
Tom.
The Liberals seem determined to deal themselves out of the ETS issue and become more irrelevant than ever. The best way to do this is to pick a date out of the air, dogmatically stick to it while the Government gets on with introducing the ETS. The Liberals have never handled opposition well, but this decision will cost them three years of barking at the moon while the ETS is developed.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24063151-601,00.html
Meanwhile some of our (hope not) future liebrals leaders are in serious training for the rats piss up.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24061736-5001021,00.html
So Santo Santoro’s faction of the Queensland Liberals has knocked the unlikely nomination of Shane Stone on the head. This would seem to suggest that they are back to having the National Party President McIvor as the only realistic candidate for President of the Pineapple Party.
We are now left with with two options this weekend, a National Party President of the Queensland Division of the Liberal Party or a Liberal Party walkout from the process. Either way the losers from the whole process are the Queensland Liberals. Springborg and McIvor have outsmarted the Queensland Liberals at every stage of the buyout and deserve to be rewarded for their cunning and persistence.
It is going to be interesting to watch all the Queensland Liberal Party assets being sold off at firesale prices during an economically tight time. The crunch for Springborg and McIvor will come when Springborg becomes a three time loser as opposition Leader at the next election – that’s when their problems really begin.
Springborg might finally get the message that it is his refusal to develop any meaningful policy, during his long tenure as Opposition Leader that keeps him in Opposition and not so much what the Liberals have or haven’t done in the past campaigns.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24063069-5006786,00.html
184
Diogenes Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 10:22 pm
“Solar grids can never be made “energy dense” enough to be of more than token efforts.”
You are absolutely, and utterly wrong on that Diogenes.
It would take 45 sq km of concentrating solar energy to provide over 90% of ALL of Australia’s electricity. This heat can be stored overnight and during dull periods to even out the supply. This calculation is based on Dr David Mill’s recent pitch to Canberra. Meanwhile, they are doing it in California on a VERY big scale.
It is both political will and the massive shift away from the century of investment in coal that’s the problem, not ANY technological limitation.
KR look what happened to the pop corn machine.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23590747-17001,00.html
211
steve
Pass the popcorn…and run! LOL
KR
I disagree with your interpretation of the term “energy dense”. I think that figure of 45 square kilometers of solar panels shows it would be extraordinarily difficult to bring in. Many of the large cities in the world (NY, Tokyo, London, Chicago) don’t get enough sun to make it feasible as the infrastructure to carry the power from 1000’s of km away is cost-prohibitive.
I’m hoping for nuclear fusion and electric cars myself, but we need a few options.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24063151-601,00.html
Headline – Liberals to stall on carbon emissions trading scheme
“KEVIN Rudd faces a delay in the introduction of his carbon emissions trading system until after the next election, with Brendan Nelson vowing last night that the Coalition will not accept a start-up date before “2011 at the earliest”.
This sentence should have been written as follows:
“Australians face a delay in the introduction of carbon emissions trading system until after the next election, with Brendan Nelson vowing last night that the Coalition will not accept a start-up date before “2011 at the earliest”.
So Nelson is playing politics with the health and safety of our nation. He and his party will stand condemned at the next election.
213 – Diogenes
I’m a chemist not a physicist but as far as I can tell (barring unforseen breakthroughs) we’re still at least fifty years from commercially viable fusion. While I agree it is the ultimate solution to our power needs we definitely need a stopgap.
I don’t see any real alternative to solar power, either in the form of straight photon to electricity or alternatively in some form of biofuel system.
Steve K, could Kevin Rudd wish for a better outcome. He now has an issue to take to the next election.
216 Charles, could the Liberals wish for a worse outcome?
They may as well practice golf, or take long lunchbreaks each day as they have made themselves redundant on the biggest issue of this parliamentary term.
Perhaps they could take extended leave till 2011 and come back when they have something to say.
dogb
I agree. It might be fifty years but hopefully more like twenty. It depends on how much investment is put into it and how lucky we are.
Another big problem with huge solar grids is that they form “non-scale networks” rather than random networks. The “node” of the 45 km2 would be unbelievably attractive as a terrorist target. Any nutcase with a few crappy munitions has an unmissable target which would wipe out power across Oz in about five minutes. You can’t rely on a few “nodes”.
The politics of nuclear fusion are the hard bit. Try explaining the difference between fusion and fission to the voters.
Crickey Whitey # 201 (I don’t know how this got on poll bludger but:)
Other than an emotional feeling that any treatment is better than none do you know of any scientific evidence that the current treatment of prostate cancer is in anyway effective?
Dio
Twenty years seems very optimistic to me but it’s a thumb suck either way to be perfectly honest – here’s hoping you’re right. As far as selling it to the public I don’t think it’s going to be a big problem. In the last few years I’ve personally witnessed a state government (QLD) basically ignore the potential political damage and go ahead with a massively unpopular water recycling scheme because there was no real alternative.
Large scale fusion will be the same. It will be so important and so cost effective that governments will simply be unable to ignore the benefits. They’ll try to sell it to the people but ultimately, even if it’s hideous unpopular, it will still go ahead.
On solar – I agree about the vulnerability of large scale solar grids. I tend to think the best system would be fairly well distributed (panels on domestic roofs, small ‘community’ storages, multiple connections to grid etc) but I’m guessing, like everything else the human race does, it will develop in a fairly ad hoc manner and security will be a problem that needs to be addressed.
Diogenes, Dogb…
The beauty of photovoltaic solar power is that it scales easily.
You can either build one 45 sq. km. station, or forty-five 1 sq. km. power stations with only modest commissioning overheads per station, much more modest than having to build lots of little coal-fired stations.
Scalability is why the domestic solar cells thing was started, but in my opinion, that’s too small, too inefficient.
Most likely, the optimum size for a commercial solar station is in the 1 sq. km. range and less. Given that your average available suburban roof space is 25 sq. metres., a 1 sq. km. station is the equivalent of 40,000 suburban installations. a quarter sq. km. station (500 metres square, plus something for installations) is 10,000 suburban rooftops.
No climbing up on wonky roofs, no special OH&S insurance for climbers, no tree shadows impeding sunlight at various times of the day… and no bloody ugly solar cells ruining the amenity of the neighbourhood. You’d have economies of scale in installation because no climbing would be necessary. Installation would go from an inefficient “boutique” industry to “industrial” overnight. A small gang of workers, or three, working 3 lots of 8 hour shifts (night work possible because of no hazardous roof climbing), could put up hundreds of cells per day in a solar farm situation. Everywhere there was a spare bit of otherwise untenable waste land, a solar farm could be located there.
Spread out in smaller farms, we’d negate the terrorism threat instantly.
Big farms could be built outback. This would bring new industry and prosperity to towns now facing desolation and ruin due to the very thing solar farms are perfect for exploiting: cloudless skies.
If people wanted to invest, they could invest for as little as the cost of one solar panel, getting a re-jigged rebate from the government for it in recognition of the expense. These shares would no longer be tied to a particular house. They would be portable. In other words: proper, saleable investments.
221 BB
Makes you wonder why we’re not doing it already doesn’t it.
dogb check out the CSIRO website. It will inspire you.
I forgot to point out that storage might not be practical in smaller solar farms. So what? These could still be used for peak power requirements, allowing coal-fired generators to be shut down part of the time, or even mothballed, reducing overall emissions.
We must not forget, that we don’t have to solve the entire problem with one solution in one fell swoop.
There are many ways of storing solar power. The Yanks proposed compressing air and storing it in underground caverna (existing technology, used for LPG storage in America). But why not use solar power to desalinate sea water and store that. It could be pumped into dams and used for hydo generation at night, or just as straight drinking water. Remember, once the solar technology is installed, the power for it is free.
Work could be generated just in maintenance. Think thousands of people with feather dusters. Well, OK, maybe not feather dusters, but there’s a lot of work to be done anyway.
The dying towns of the west could become centres of industry, education, whatever you like. With unlimited power water could be pumped there instead of power cabled to the coasts. The possibilities are endless.
CPI rose 1.5% in June quarter making 4.5% increase for the year.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6401.0?OpenDocument
OVERVIEW OF CPI MOVEMENTS
* The most significant price rises this quarter were for deposit and loan facilities (+9.5%), automotive fuel (+8.7%), rents (+2.2%), hospital and medical services (+4.0%), house purchase (+1.0%), furniture (+3.1%), and spirits (+6.1%).
* The most significant offsetting price decreases were for other financial services (–2.9%), fruit (–7.4%), vegetables (–6.5%), domestic holiday travel and accommodation (–2.0%) and electricity (–1.4%).
We’re not doing it already because the coal and oil lobbies are too strong. It’s that simple.
This all comes back to my idea that Rudd needs to grasp the bull by the horns and talk of a new, great future for Australia, not only making the best of a bad thing in fighting Global Warming, but triumphing over it, and prospering from it.
At the moment his progess model is two steps forward, one step back. everyone’s whingeing: the advertising companies, the hypocritical Lib and Nat pollies going on about the ad campaigns, the workers afraid of changing their jobs, the pensioners, the opinion writers whipping it all up.
Rudd may get some satisfaction out of “process”, winning through using classic methods of bureaucratic manipulation. But it could be so much easier for him. Like Tom Sawyer, he’s digging his way out of jail with a spoon, when he should be using a bulldozer.
Many here get a certain amount of satisfaction out of seeing the Opposition tying themselves up in policy knots. It’s all very jolly and funny. We love to slam “deniers” and goofy un-scientific theories that say the Earth is cooling, or the seas are falling, or it’s all down to water vapour, or cosmic rays or the Big Spaghetti Monster… or whatever the latest anti-GW schtik is. It’s a kind of masochistic pleasure we all get, from time time time our of believing we are right and that our opponents are not only wrong, but stupidly so.
But the pleasure is self-defeating. We argue and rant and rave (I certainly do) in the mistaken belief that the Earth gives a $hit about what we say. The Eart doesn’t. No political point scored in the world is going to ameliorate Global Warming. No “gotcha”, no prissy bit of obstructionism in the Senate, no wedge of the Greens, or whatever (and certainly no opinion poll, perhaps the most idiotic thing to rely on of all). All we get from those, no matter which side we are on, is a moment’s mental pleasure at the discomfort of our opponents, while the main problem – that the Earth as we know it is heading down hill – just gets harder to solve.
There is more to politics than just winning the day. Rudd can win the decade, the century if only he quits trying to fight the Opposition and their cheer squad and the terribly afraid of change on their own terms and goes his own way… soberly, carefully, but inexorably setting himself apart from the grubby street fighters squabbling over political crumbs.
And wait till your neighbourhood gym harnesses all those kilojoules now going to waste. A little power station in every suburb!
Not really a joke – as entrepreneurs will surely see the business opportunity and appeal for an energy self-sufficient gym. I’m pretty sure there’d be R&D going on right now.
The guy pumping iron powers the chick’s treadmill. Probably a metaphor for something.
BB@227
Nice rant…can only agree.
On solar & viability – see the example of Woking in the UK for what a local authority can do right now: ie; http://www.woking.gov.uk/council/planning/publications/climateneutral2/energy.pdf
Not a “perfect” solution but clearly possible to make significant changes without large scale social dislocation.
227 BB
Exactly what I was saying to my wife this morning. Rudd shouldn’t be talking of challenges. He should be talking of this as the greatest opportunity of the last hundred years. A bit of vision wouldn’t go astray.
We should be looking at what Spain is doing. They’re doing their best to set themselves up as the power generation site for Europe. They think they can do it because they have lots of open land that’s only marginally useful otherwise – and they have lots of sun.
We have lots of land, lots of sun.
BB
I agree about Rudd. He is clearly no brave visionary. He is a classic bureaucratic manipulator who will embark on a very intensive laborious process which is more about minimising negatives than being positive. But those are the political realities in this “climate”.
oakeshott country Says: @ 219
{do you know of any scientific evidence that the current treatment of prostate cancer is in anyway effective?}
Not sure of the effectiveness of most current treatments, but there does seem to be some progress being made.
{A POWERFUL new drug to fight the deadliest forms of prostate cancer could put thousands of men into remission and lead to effective treatments for other hormone-driven cancers.}
http://www.theage.com.au/national/prostate-cancer-drug-advance-hailed-20080722-3jcj.html
oc
For very small prostate cancers (the type picked up by screening), there is much debate about whether to treat or not as most don’t ever cause any problems. For larger prostate cancers treatment definitely improves the prognosis (surgery, radiotherapy or hormonal) and even quite advanced disease can be controlled effectively in many patients.
Diogenes,
Look at Mitterand, had it for 17 years before he departed to meet his socialist entity.
“There is more to politics than just winning the day. Rudd can win the decade, the century if only he quits trying to fight the Opposition and their cheer squad and the terribly afraid of change on their own terms and goes his own way… soberly, carefully, but inexorably setting himself apart from the grubby street fighters squabbling over political crumbs.”
Forget about the politics. Rudd just needs to get out their and promote this grand vision. Make increased bills and costs in general a virtue (if anything will put people off this spin will). Let the opposition go there own way and dominate the media with their negativity. Just ignore the lot and plough on.
Rudd should get on telly and have the whole country glued to their TV sets taking in every word. They will flock to him. There won’t be a detractor or CC denier left in the country. The opposition will eventually melt away and vote for every CC bill i the government puts forward in the Senate because they too can see the vision.
A noble sentiment but naive. Political reality just doesn’t allow for this approach.
Yes, GB, and I suppose the current effort is working so well? Full of clarity, truth and noble intentions?
To the man with a hammer everything looks like a nail.
Rudd is a “details man”.
To the man who revels in details, everything looks like a multi-disciplinary, complex set of interlocking challenges that require a balanced mix of goal-orientated methodologies and outcomes.
Crap.
The greatest politicians in history are those who have been able to cut through with their message and create opportunities out of adversity. The rest are jusy hacks, or amateurs.
If you think this is the end-game, some sort of last gasp of the deniers that we’re seeing now, you’re wrong.
This is just the beginning of the $hit fight. It’ll only get more muddied, more complex and more interwoven with pressure groups and special pleaders.
We need big ideas, concepts that are simple to utter yet powerful in their ability to inspire. We don’t need step-by-step incrementalism, playing this faction off against that lobby. If ever there was an opportunity and a challenge – the end of the world as we know it – this is the time for such inspiration.
Sure, deatils will be needed, there’ll be lots in infighting, but we need to get away from the competing portraits of various forms of up and coming misery that seems to be dominating this debate.
Forget the TV ads. Rudd should get up on national TV and tell us how great we can be. Then let’s give Nelson equal time to match that with his 5c off a litre of petrol guff.
I don[’t think Rudd is personally in a crisis, at least not yet (but that could come sooner rather than later). But we are in a crisis if something’s not done. At the bottom line, it’s us ordinary folk that I’m concerned for, not Rudd’s poll figures.
Where’s the passion Gary Bruce?
I’ll take that as a compliment, coming from you ESJ.
Bushfire Bill – LOL LOL
“If you think this is the end-game, some sort of last gasp of the deniers that we’re seeing now, you’re wrong.”
I don’t believe that at all but the approach you’re advocating will not stop this happening either. It will just give them free reign.
“The greatest politicians in history are those who have been able to cut through with their message and create opportunities out of adversity. The rest are just hacks, or amateurs.”
In Australia we see all politicians as snake oil salesman. Rudd won’t overcome that overnight. Our most successful politicians have been snake oil salesmen. Howard was one of the best and lasted 11.5 years.
“We need big ideas, concepts that are simple to utter yet powerful in their ability to inspire. We don’t need step-by-step incrementalism, playing this faction off against that lobby. If ever there was an opportunity and a challenge – the end of the world as we know it – this is the time for such inspiration.”
Got this message earlier. Noble but politically naive and impractical. The real political world, at least in Australia and with a hostile Senate, doesn’t work like this.
“Forget the TV ads. Rudd should get up on national TV and tell us how great we can be. Then let’s give Nelson equal time to match that with his 5c off a litre of petrol guff.”
Got this message earlier too but still don’t believe the average person will listen to a talking political head or even read about what he said. You need to hit them in their living rooms while watching their favourite show. I’ve given my reasons why I think this approach is the best of a bad bunch of ways of tackling this communication problem on this issue (it won’t work with all issues).
“At the bottom line, it’s us ordinary folk that I’m concerned for, not Rudd’s poll figures.”
The poll figures are important only in this respect, if he doesn’t take the people with him 3 years will be it for him and then we’ll have the deniers back. You know it and I know it. Then we’ll really be in the poop.
Gary Bruce = Compromiser
Tony Benn said there were 3 types in politics, maddies, straight men and fixers.
Give me the maddies any time – conservative or liberal.
Your view is really the defeatist progressive view – if your principles are worth fighting for then why disguise them?
As a urologist, allow me to finish this debate, which really does not belong on pollbludger and can become very tedious with the quoting of newspaper interpretations of scientific journals and even of conflicting scientific papers. At present (as in 1966 when the president of the American Urology Association first said it) “we can cure cancers of the prostate that do not need treatment but we can only treat cancers that need a cure”.
Since the introduction of PSA testing in australia in 1988 the incidence of CaP has gone from 50/100,000 to 180, at the same time the mortality has fallen from 16/100,000 to 14 (NSW cancer registry). This is despite a massive shift in staging that means cancers are now found at a previously unbelievably early stage.
Proponents of mass prostate screening tend to massage these figures significantly (e.g. this is a 12% improvement in mortality) but when it comes down to it, this early diagnosis has only had a very limited effect on patient survival. It has however kept many a urologist in his or her beemer and makes some of the layity feel warm and gooey. The cost has been significant, not only in terms of Medicare expense but also in terms of patient anxiety and the not insignificant complications of treatment for a disease that may or may not have endangered the man’s life.
Yes, Diogenes, since 1940s (and including the latest Telegraph ‘breakthrough’) testosterone deprivation has eased symptoms in late stage disease but it has never been shown to extend longevity.
Sorry to be cynical and I am very hopeful that a way of significantly decreasing the mortality of Ca Prostate is close but I feel the health dollar can be better spent on things other than mass PSA screening. I should also admit that i have a yearly PSA.
i drop in today to see pessimissm & scientists puting come confusing pictures to me Well this solar grid crusade is only a week old & not derailable by negatives of why it cann’t be done St.ff th rest of the world argument & st.ff the terrorists threat argument , and st.ff the scale argumentt because super solar does work in my shanty 7 over square miles of outback farms The CC problam
is solvable , its the vision & the will & nerve thats the problam
My #186 IS AN EXISTING SCINTIFIC SOLUTION , its a super solar grid It dustbins fossils , it dustbins CO2 , it dustbins conniving big Oily Exxons pressuring Politticans , its the sun , and the sun takes no holidays , and th Sun has no $10 million a year slick CEO’s , and the Sun comes up everyday for us on the horizon so it’ll be always there
Its a John Curtin/Chifley equivalent of the Snowy River schem , big vision , and importantly big reward A CC solution & a sounder economic ‘oz’ future creating more jobs & ‘oz’ jobs longterm I’m gonna write to Kevin07 and say the voters demand the SAME enegy as now for there machines & toys & aircons , and they may be prepared to pay abit more for the enegy power cause they have good CC hearts , but only IF you offer dem a ‘future’ vison of jobs , no CC and the same enegy as now
But you must offer dems the same enegy as they’ve got now because your faithfull voters are reely greedy boys Those greedy voters will chose ‘dirty’ coal over there good CC hearts unless sir Kevin you offer them an tangable enegy alternative To thems voters , ‘process’ is NOT an enegy alternative and ETS to voters is NOT an enegy alternative , to voters they are just fluffy words , and CC may get sidetracked by words rather than a big vision alrernative
politcs Kevin07 ? Brendan says wait till 2011 , thats only so Horatio can run a 2010 scare electon campaign And as for Brendon saying wait for Copenhagan meeting in 2011 for the US & china to agree ? Hell the US has not even agreed to ratify Kyoto & may never because Obama & Mccain are p.ss weak on CC So thats another Horatio furphy , sir Kevin the US & China are not probably never gonna agree , so look after ‘oz’ , thats your job , and be bold with big vision on solar
Sorry the figures for mortality should be 36/100,000 (pre PSA) and 33 (post PSA). I was lookng at the graph upside down but my interpretation is the same.
I wish I knew where to start out on the subject of your cynicism, GB.
The ad campaign is already a dead duck. Fluffy messages, hacked to pieces as partisan advertising by the hypocrites on the right. Did you see Barnarby Joyce’s comment? He shamelessly admitted that the WC campaign was wrong in order to label Rudd an equal hypocrite to Howard. Sheesh… just as I predicted yesterday… not too naive there, was I?
However, one of the criticisms by one of the advertising gurus in the article struck a chord. He argued that the ads told us the problem, but not the solution.
I guess Rudd would see the solution as being “an inclusive and balanced mix of goal-orientated methodologies and multi-dimensional outcomes for all participating stakeholders.” Sexxxxxxxy!. Try selling that to the Footy show audience.
Curtin had his “every man, woman and child” war policy. Kennedy had his “We choose to go to the moon…” speech. Churchill had his, “We shall fight them on the beaches…” broadcast. Rudd has, “The devil’s in the details”.
Which three of the above are regarded as great leaders? All four had or have existential challenges – the Japanese invasion of New Guinea and thence Australia, the technical and military supremacy of the Russians in the early 1960s, the looming threat of Hitler, and lately the big one… Global Warming.
Sure there were a lot of “multi-dimensional challenges” and outright political knife fights involved for all of them. But the direction was clear.
Rudd has not shown us a direction we all want to follow. Rather, he is promising us doom and gloom, and lots and lots of details as the lobby groups duke it out over nuances of political and financial advantage. He’s like the surgeon telling the patient that he’ll wake up in agony after the operation, when he should he holding out hope for not only a cure, but a better life… and bugger the pain in the short term. That’s how you get people to do unpalatable things: you inspire them to think of a brighter future.
“Bushfire Bill Says:
July 23rd, 2008 at 11:38 am
There is more to politics than just winning the day. Rudd can win the decade, the century if only he quits trying to fight the Opposition and their cheer squad and the terribly afraid of change on their own terms and goes his own way… soberly, carefully, but inexorably setting himself apart from the grubby street fighters squabbling over political crumbs.”
Agreed Bill.
Irrespective, the ALP will win the next election, it will increase its majority by about five or so seats, and will probably increase its two party vote by up to 0.5%
Ari, I hope you’re not saying that winning the next election means Rudd shouldn’t at least try to inspire us and lift our spirits for the coming fight?
Bushfire Bill: a lot of pessimism from you! Why write off Rudd only 6 months into his first term? It seems to me you’ve been spooked by the Liberal Party cheersquad in the MSM.
BB @ 245,
The key difference between Rudd at the moment and the three leaders you mentioned is that in the case of three leaders, there was virtually unanimous agreement what the problem was – in the case of Curtin and Churchill, it was the Axis powers in WWII and for Kennedy, it was the Soviets going to space.
What those speeches were useful for was to define the nation’s response to those problems. What’s different for Rudd is that there is a significant minority still in Australia that refuse to believe that climate change is occurring. As such, Rudd is facing a doubly-difficult task compared to the three leaders you mentioned, in the sense that not only must he clearly state his solution to the problem of climate change BUT also must convince people that climate change is a problem in the first place.
To do this, he needs to take each step incrementally. Hence, the ads talking about climate change being a problem. Once he can get a strong consensus (not amongst scientists, but amongst the general public) behind this, then he can go out and set out his grand vision for dealing with climate change.
To set out a grand vision for dealing with climate change without getting this strong consensus first means that he is open to two lines of attack:
1. Based on a denial of climate change happening and/or it being detrimental to the country; and
2. based on his proposed solution to climate change.
Those ads need to start talking about HOW the ETS will work
Hi all,
I have been reading this forum for a while, it has given me great joy in seeing fair opinions and analysis, at a time where the media is certainly off the rails.
I believe Ruud currently through his ad campaign, is focusing and targetting the sceptics, with the intention of making them look foolishly fanatical and archaic.
He is focussing on the problem, explaining impact if we do nothing…, and once he gets an idea of its effectiveness or not, he will act accordingly.
He can afford the time, to gather information, CLP weaknesses, etc… till the white paper comes out.
The team Ruud/Gillard/Wong/Tanner is a powerful force not to be underestimated.
That said, there are some things I would like them to do different, or react, because occasionally, the media & CLP do spook me… and their scare tactics frustrate me….but we forget they have only been in for 7mths…….. lets wait till end of year, when papers are released, 2020 summit … etc…..
Not true. I came up with my attitude all by myself. I want Rudd to succeed… that’s the other difference.
I’ve always felt this way about Rudd, except in the lead-up to the election and in the few months after it, I put my misgivings to one side.
I thought his “attack” (from opposition) on the government on the subjects of Iraq and AWB was limp-wristed.
I always thought he spoke far too much in cliches. Still do.
I don’t like the way he has caved in on various subjects: Friday sittings, carer’s bonus and so on. It’s getting to the stage where I won’t make any predictions about Rudd being bold or brave politically, because he usually wimps out. Not contesting Mayo is another example. It just smacks of being too careful by half.
I feel that there is a killer instinct in there somewhere but that he’s listening to much to the spin doctors who are telling him the public wants a nerd in charge of the country. Hey, there’s gotta be a little room for the king hit at times, too. I know he can do it (or else why do Downer, Turnbull et al hate him so much… he king hit all of those at various stages, in various ways). I’d like to see a litle bit of viciousness from time to time, just to remind people he can do it. Lately he’s seemed like he’s on industrial strength Prozac.
On spin doctors, I think he’s too concerned with maintaining his political capital and not enough with going out there and earning more. Global Warming should be a no brainer for winning politically: “Save the planet? Where do I sign up for that?”. Yet 30% are still deniers. This figure should be 3%, not 30 %. Who else’s fault is that besides Rudd’s and his government’s? Even David Hicks managed to score 91% in a Newspoll. Why can’t Global Warming?
So, no… not a victim of the MSM commentariat. Just realising that my first impressions of Rudd may have been more valid than I cared to admit to myself, or to others.
Summed up: Rudd continually lets me down, and I don’t like that feeling.
Greens leader Bob Brown says his party will not put any pre-conditions on negotiations with the Federal Government on its emissions trading scheme.
Federal Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson has repeated today that the Coalition will not back the Government’s preferred start-up date for the scheme of 2010.
Senator Brown says Dr Nelson is ignoring the fact that the scheme will be more expensive the longer it is delayed.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/23/2312161.htm?section=justin
I this the new pragmatic Bob? 5 down 2 to go.
“Bushfire Bill Says:
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:07 pm
Ari, I hope you’re not saying that winning the next election means Rudd shouldn’t at least try to inspire us and lift our spirits for the coming fight?’
No, just relaying what I found out at the Delphic Oracle.
It looks like Rudd’s stated intention to bypass the Greens & negotiate his CC policy implementation with the Libs has struck a nerve.
{The Greens leader says while the Greens have firm policies on what targets should be set to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, they will work constructively with the Government in the Senate.
“The Greens have made it clear what we think the target should be, and of all the parties we’re being constructive in saying what the answers should be,” he said.
“But we will be negotiating with the Government and trying to get better outcomes. }
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/23/2312161.htm?section=justin
“Bushfire Bill Says:
July 23rd, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Summed up: Rudd continually lets me down, and I don’t like that feeling.”
Try following the Rabbitohs!
{The Greens have confirmed they will field a candidate in the federal seat of Lyne, which is being vacated by former deputy prime minister Mark Vaile.}
{Ms Russell says a final decision on the candidate will be made at a meeting on Sunday.
She says Mr Vaile’s resignation was overdue.
“His resignation means that one more of those old-school business-as-usual climate sceptics has now left the Parliament,” she said.}
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/23/2312172.htm?section=justin
The MSM told us repeatedly that the Fibs were going to close the gap, the “narrowing” that Howard was going to retain his seat and that the polls were misleading. Now we hear that there is a llikelyhood of a double dissolution that would strangely favour the loonys on the other side and that this is a one term government.
These people have no credibility. These theories are year ten poltics and a fail at that. Really its just a farce, so can we not get drawn into this idea that after a few months of government the Ruddster is in danger. Here is a call from a long way out. I would bet Sydney to a Brick that this government will be returned and whoever leads the opposition to the next election will never be PM.
Bushfire Bill – I understand where you are coming from, however:-
…Rudd has unfortunately, due to the Libs and media having ganged up, forced him to play some politics initially.
You recall why Lab lost previous elections …. scare i/r/economy, scare iraq/security, Howard buying votes via pensioners, middleclass bonuses …etc… if he were to go hard on these issues, he would not have gotten in….he and his team need to maintain cool professionalism and not become the muppets that the Libs display on a daily basis. If he wasnt on the right track re his statesman like decor, his approval would have nose dived by now.
Look at the reaction to the alcopop, medicare threshold ..reasonable reform….. look at Howard/Costello saying no to petrol excise reduction and been Ok, but when Rudd says no, shit hits the fan !!!!
Why didnt the pensioners strip and protest during the Howard years, no….they had to wait when Lab came in ….
Rudd is in a complicated place, run by irresponsible populist oppos and media, he needs time to work out what I see as a new phenomenon …. of false, ill-informed and misguided media and opposition…. Bolt/Piers a prime example.
Yesterday i saw in the morning shows how the docu that came out in the UK, attacking GW, is now incorrect and false in its allegations…. havent seen that anywhere as top billing ….
258 “I would bet Sydney to a Brick”
Are you sure you don’t mean, ‘Sydney to a brick on’, Bob?
I’ll never vote for the Libs, and will always vote for Labor. Labor, Federally, is too ingrained in me. Call me rusted on. 5 generations of family, many of them Labor party members (though not me) and politicians (not me either).
I want Rudd to do well, but I’ve become sick at heart with him. Nevertheless, my criticisms are intended to be constructive, not just an aimless whinge. There’s a point , a positive point (at least in my own empty head), to what I’m saying and thinking.
I’ll let it go at that.
On targets, why would ruddywell hang himself out to dry as a greenspuppet on targets? On timing, why would ruddywell give the tory careerists another three years of populist-or-perish politics? With excellent poll figures and with about two out of every three voters apparently on the eco-hysterical side of the climate change great divide, why wouldn’t ruddywell call a DD? Then we could sit back and watch the ruddy panic buttons being pushed in toryland. The jobs! The jobs! Hang on to the great empathizer? Go with a banker when banks are on the nose, if not actually going broke? Go with the wicked witch of the west? Go with the mad monk – perhaps mckillop’s second miracle? And then what about the williwillinot? Choices! Choices! And as for we puny punters, think of the blogops!
Hey BB
I hear you.
I do think Rudd’s behaviour may be (as Galaxy implied) based on habits developed over long years in opposition.
I can’t tell you how much I dislike JWH, but you have to admit the man was a consummate political opportunist. Labor lost one unlosable election due to blatant racist dog whistling and another due to their own poor choice in leader. They were always going to back a careful man this time. Rudd won because he didn’t make any big mistakes. I think he still has to learn that he can now risk one or two.
Time is on his side and the man has a brain – he’ll come good.
“I wish I knew where to start out on the subject of your cynicism, GB.”
One man’s cynicism is another man’s realism. I’m a political realist.
“The ad campaign is already a dead duck. Fluffy messages, hacked to pieces as partisan advertising by the hypocrites on the right.”
Really and where is the proof that Barnaby and friends have had any effect out there in voterland? I think you’re being spooked BB. You attribute too much power to the messages being given out by opponents and that is naive. The CC advertising has a good chance of working because the underlying strong perception in voterland is the same as that being preached by the message being put in these ads. People didn’t turn against WC being of the criticisms of how much Howard spent on advertising. The “spending” criticism comes and goes very quickly. The product being sold is what makes or breaks the campaign and where the public stand perceptually.
“Try selling that to the Footy show audience.”
Better still, try selling a visionary ideal being spruiked by a political talking head to a Footy show audience.” You can see their eyes glazing over now.
Here’s a challenge BB. You’re great with words, give me an idea of what Rudd could say in such a visionary speech. While you’re at it tell me why such a speech would have any effect on the nay sayers and on those who want to bring Rudd down.
I think the politcs and the CC are being are being mixed up with what our enemys tactics are The MSN and the Libs were always going to go down the trak of lost jobs , higher costs , wait for rest of worlds , deniying CC exists, confusions And sert groundworks they tink for a 2010 electon scare win
What the ‘right’ devils want guys is to breed some ‘cauton’ from us & from sir Kevin , buy TIME for there busines mates (the financial stakes even in ‘oz’ are reely trillions!) , but above all forse a MINIMALIST CC position …that is the role & objectve of “capital” & there Lib reps I and all yous guys understand them heathens tactics & profit motives
So no I’m not spooked by the MSN or the Libs, thats what they were going &will continue to do What we ar debating is not to let Kevin07 get suckered & lose the next electon , not st.ff the economy already fragile , but solve CC , and how to solve CC either via ETS or the ron dreamy vison plus ETS What methodical Kev has done with the adds , is like a General create a defense against the CC denyers , then next General Kev via ‘process’ lay out the ETS later , and then legislation June 2009 at earliest re the crucuual transitionry RET schem process & detail
What can i say , politcly and governance wise brillant , whch is why many of yous do not wish on these logc grounds to have Sir Kevin be so bold now & instead jump onto the super solar grid ship So i actualy understand your view , BUT 1/ it allows the initiative to the negative side of the argument to breed doubt to the “majority converted voters” on job security , on deniers & on higher costs , perhaps fatally to CC support 2/ these are reel life to voters hip pocket issues and there is no offsetting tangable 3/ no enegy alternative to the voters confusion/fear that elctricity availabilty will be less Now Kevin07 may then get re-elected but the ‘right’ may hav won , Kevin07 may then have been forsed into wearing a minimalist CC position relying on ETS only
So even politcly , sir Kevin can politcly affford to take risk , what more worthwhile isue is there than CC in fact , played right he could paint he Libs as defenders of poluters & holding back ‘oz’ future techo in solar & future jobs , as well as making those greedy voters still hav a good CC heart
You still don’t get it, GB.
The speech delivers the idea. It’s ideas that matter, but without proper delivery they’re not worth a blogger’s curse.
You need the speech and the idea, the program: the future possibilities expressed in a few words of genuine communication. Something that gets people talking, rather than whingeing. As long as you regard Rudd as just another “political talking head” you’ll be doomed to an endless cycle of cynicism.
So far Rudd has expressed few ideas on Global Warming other than it’ll be grim and miserable, platitudes like “the Devil’s in the details” and endless repetition of his “Working Families” mantra. He needs to up his game, after taking a holiday.
I do find your continually calling those who disagree with you “naive” rather tiresome. If you were a genuine political realist, rather than a pretend one, you’d realise that there is a need for leadership in this country, not mere chairmanship.
Write what you like in reply. I’m going to walk the dogs.
The Govt. is starting to control the political agenda, from the election to budget they were reacting – now they are leading.
The ETS is the first cab off the rank because Garnuat was set up from opposition, but the much derided enquiries will all start to report within a few months.
If you think Brenda is confused now – wait until Ken Henry brings down his report.
Boerwar @ 262, my thoughts exactly – A dd would be a great chance to drive the final stake into the heart of the liberal machine. It would being doing Australia a favour to get rid of a party that is now full of extreme right idiot savants.
Tom.
Tom
A DD would not get rid of the Fibs – it would just give minor parties more senators due to the lower quota required.
There will not be a DD on the ETS legislation – it would be too close to a “normal” election to bother.
BB,
Agree that Rudd also needs to also talk about the possibilities and opportunities that tackling GW presents instead of the constant hand-wringing about the pain of it all. That’s dancing to the discordant (and very smelly) tune the opposition are trying to sell.
Especially so now that petrol prices are likely to fall to more comfortable levels which I believe may work against the ETS instead of making it easier to sell, as I suspect the high polling figures in support are driven to a some extent by a combination of fears about peak oil inflating prices and the effects of the prolonged drought, particularly the plight of the M-D system and urban water restrictions. If fuel prices drop and we were to get some good rains across southern states the willingness to tackle Climate Change could dissipate very quickly.
.
Aristotle @ 254-
No, just relaying what I found out at the Delphic Oracle.
It is now believed that the Oracle was high as a petrol sniffing kite on either natural gas or oil fumes wafting up from underground deposits in the Delphi region, hence the weird phrasing in much of her predictions. So I’d take her claims on anything to do with GW with a larger than usual pinch of salt. Her pronouncements could be driven by guilt about her part in rising atmospheric carbon levels!
Check out http://www.abc.net.au/iview/
Looks like the knackery for any grandfathers who like a tipple.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/23/2312389.htm
273 GG funny that there was no mention of the banks in his explanation of causes of inflation. WTF does deposit and loan facilities mean in simple English?
* The most significant price rises this quarter were for deposit and loan facilities (+9.5%), automotive fuel (+8.7%), rents (+2.2%), hospital and medical services (+4.0%), house purchase (+1.0%), furniture (+3.1%), and spirits (+6.1%).
steve,
Might be fees and interest rates. Might relate to the chances of getting that $50 back that you lent your mate lat Saturday at the pub.
On the inflation figures the underlying rate fell slightly from 1.25% to 1.1% not huge but a modest move in the right direction.
I expect the next two quarters will show inflation falling at a greater rate, by the next budget Swannie will be in Tip’s league as the worlds bestest,
The best thing that the Gov’t can do is focus on what they are doing and carry on their job of implementing the CC policy. It would be wrong to be distracted by the Opposition and the Media in their spoiling tactics.The spoiling tactics which they employed right from November 2007 are because they simply have no policy of their own.
Whatever Rudd did would be criticised. If the ads were too aggressive they would claim scare mongering. In this case they are claiming “too fluffy”. The spoiling tactics will just go on and on. He would be damned by them if he did, and damned if he didn’t.
In the face of this it is easy to get disappointed and frustrated and yes, spooked by the media. It is easy to be critical but difficult to be constructive unless you have “walked a mile in a man’s shoes”. It is also easy to be disappointed if your own expectations are unreal.
The worst thing Rudd could do at the moment is to give a “visionary speech” full of “passion” and “inspiration”. Now this is probably different to what most bloggers are thinking but I can see Nelson and the MSM saying ” he has become an enthusiast; he is getting carried away with himself; his glass jaw is showing, we knew he could not take the criticism; he cracks under pressure; he is getting desperate; a man like that is not fit to be PM; still more spin and no substance & etc”. One of the reasons Rudd is there is because he convinced the electorate he had a safe pair of hands. To provide an excuse for his opponents to make out with credibility that he was not a safe pair of hands to the voters would be fatal. At the moment we need steady leadership as the process proceeds and Rudd is providing it.
We have had the Greens and now Nelson posturing. We do not need Rudd posturing as well. There are complicated politics even to get the CC passed.
I believe there is a time and place for such a speech but it is not now. It would be more timely and appropriate done as part of the presentation of the final white paper in December after voters have had time to become at least partially familiar with the package.
The next election should see the end of Family First and the 4th conservative from Qld (Barnaby Joyce). If the ALP give sensible preferences the Libs will naturally loose there advantage as Senator Zen from South Aus seems more and more to be somewhere between the Greens and the ALP. He was the variable of the last Senate election. No chance of a DD.
Bob Santamaria is spot on. I wonder what the odds on Sports bet is.
Seems that the main measure of the “deposit and loan facilities” is to capture the difference between what banks charge for a loan compared to what deposit interest they will pay for borrowing your money.
A more broad definition is here:
“Financial services other than general insurance. This encompasses a range of services, such as those associated with deposit and loan facilities offered by financial intermediaries, broking and real estate services, currency exchange, legal and accounting services and superannuation fund services. These services are typically complex to price and suitable data are not readily available for some. (footnote 9)”
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/429515868B489F76CA25705F001ECA8B?opendocument
Follow the Preferences, if the Pineapple Party is formed on the weekend. Barnaby becomes number 2 senator for the Pineapple Party.
See W11(a) and (b):
http://www.qld.liberal.org.au/pdf/merger/Draft%20Constitution.pdf
CC started of as a climate environmentel problem But now CC has been turned into an economic problem , with an economic solution rather than a climatologists solution
IF the Climatoligists & scientists had there way , wouldn’t they say: here’s the CC problam its climate change , here’s the cause its fosils get rid of them , here’s th timeframe you’ve got to act in i before its rreversibility , and here’s the solution for example solar power Now Mr Politicans & business get the economists to work out how to cushion the economy & peoples jobs , but only within our proven science based boundaries of the tiping point No matter how much “process” we do , we are working CC out in reverse
So if a massive meteoric is heading towards earth , the politcans & econamists will frst work out how the economy will handle the after damage , rather than how to stop the meteoric or minimise human loss
ruawake @ 268
“wait until Ken Henry brings down his report”
On the topic of reports, it was interesting to watch the ABC tonight listing several (including Ken Henry’s) and making much ado about how many of them had slipped behind in their proposed reporting timetable. Is the ABC funded by the Murdoch press these days?
Ron
It is logical. There is no CC policy unless passed by the Senate- that is democracy. There is the option of a DD but is unlikely. When you are talking politics there are voters. With no economic policy integrated with CC the voters will not support you. It is politics but necessary politics and is but the means to an end. Economics has to be involved. There is no easy way!
I do not see how Barnaby could miss out in holding his Senate seat He & Boswell are th only 2 Nat Q’ld Senators anyway & there terms started a different elections , so both always would be no 1 on a Nats ticket
Springborg says Liberal termites attacking merger process…
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/termites-attacking-merger-bid/2008/07/23/1216492522419.html
But they will all be one big happy family come Monday!
I seem to recall the plan being that Ron Boswell would quit and Barnaby Joyce would fill his vacancy.
Thought Joyce was elected 2004 and Bosswell in 2007 , making them having alternatve ends or was a deal/change by the Nats made prior to the last electon
and cann’t see benefit of a deal for the Nats , as Joyce would win a 6 year term Seat in 2010 (to 2016) and if Bosswell wanted to go earlir you’d think they’d get the next “Nats’ rather than a “Lib’Nats” in line to serve out till 2014 But then i’ve nevr understood the Nats anyway
281 Ron-
all very well, but I’ve asked this question of climatologists (one of whom is on the IPCC) and the answers I’ve got from them have been along these lines -
(i) they just do science, they don’t do policy, that’s the job of politicians;
(ii) there’s no need/requirement/reason to get rid of fossil fuels – the focus should be on minimising their importance and on community awareness (so if you put in air conditioning, put a solar cell on the roof as well to balance your usage);
(iii) acting now prevents the situation worsening in twenty years’ time. It doesn’t stop climate change from happening. The tipping point was reached probably twenty years ago. Leave climatologists to sell the message and the Libs and their ilk will be saying “well, let’s wait until 2030″;
(iv) given (iii) we need to focus on adaption as well as mitigation. We’re still only at step one – it is urgent that we broaden the focus of the discussion.
Zoom
#289
I’ll look for further info , as the data i’ve seen is contrary to what your guy implys , & says instead the tipping point is not yet reached , an big emmissions reductons are needed by 2020 The big problem with all this is it allows the CC denyers to divide & cause confusion/doubts to prevent CC action As a starter :
AP 8-7-2008
‘Scientists say urgent action is needed to make greenhouse gas emissions fall after peaking within the NEXT 15 years, to limit the increase in global temperatures to under 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Temperatures beyond that could trigger the worst effects of warming, such as melting ice sheets and extreme weather’
The article was reporting on the G8 agreeing to 50% reductions by 2050 , something i also understand is insufficent
So many of you are rabbiting on about getting visionary speeches from Mr Rudd. These days, you should count yourself lucky if you get one memorable speech per year out of any Australian politician. You had the apology speech last February: be grateful for that.
Pedant
#291
“So many of you are rabbiting on about getting visionary speeches from Mr Rudd”
i hav NEVER suggested Rudd makes a ‘visionary’ speech at all I’m talking about a vision tangable policy being solar based , thats a policy of setting an agenda & target of what enegy base sourse we wish to have operating in 10 years time , and implementing an infrastrucure plan to achieve it
The difference is along term policy that operates with what is the current enegy sourse , and seeks to massage it & “hope” to phase in alternatives Not sure where the relevance of the appology is , but if you implying that was mere symbolism also , then you missed the point of it
277 Doug – well said. Spot on.
Doug
#277
Not sure why you posted that I hav no fear of the MSN or the Libs , they are pushing an anti CC barrow as i expected & forcast a week ago , no surprise there 7 they’ll keep doing it I imagine Rudd has as little fear of there red herrings & posturing for 2010 electon as i do because Rugdd has them cornered on CC As for vision policy based on now agendering an alternative enegy sourse and implementing infrastructure plands to achieve it , thats not a visionary speech at all , thats forward based policy formulation that any proper busines plan has as a principal Thats why Pedant missed th point diference
Totally agree. It’s been getting extremely tiresome.
but as mentioned , i suspect rudd is shortly by ‘process’ and timing about to let the Lbs out of the trap
“As long as you regard Rudd as just another “political talking head” you’ll be doomed to an endless cycle of cynicism.”
I don’t but we’re not talking about me or you, we’re talking about the “Footy Show audience” type people, you know the ones that couldn’t give a continental about politics, including what the PM says.
“I do find your continually calling those who disagree with you “naive” rather tiresome.”
If you look through all of my postings you’ll find I’ve used this term twice and I believe those were justified.
“If you were a genuine political realist, rather than a pretend one, you’d realise that there is a need for leadership in this country, not mere chairmanship.”
I believe we are getting real leadership. As for the “pretend” part, I’ll assume that it’s you showing your frustration at Rudd for not being the miracle man you expected.
Well, that’s it for me on this topic. You and I will not agree on this but that’s life.
Gary ,
what you and BB are arguing on re visionary statements , is completely diferent to what me and Doug are debating Doug wants to wait on the details from the ‘process” re ETS , whereas i feel the Green papr has set the broad Agenda & i feel ETS alone & the proposed RET objects will not achieve the desired enegy replacement levels or quantum , without adding a solar grid infatrastucture schem policy & schedule
Doug , Bushfire Bill & Dario
Doug #283
sorry missed your post till now Doug , agree with you , my thoughts in #281 were actualy agianst Politicans & vested Enegy interests interfering with climatologists conclusions then independently modelled by econamists to give us varying options , but regretably reality is reality & there are politicans & vested interests as players
Your #277 was replied to in #294 to clarify where there is a agrement & that what is being suggested isn’t a ’solar speech’ , but instead I’m suggesting a comprehensive policy alternitive of a super solar grid fully costed targeted scheduled phased in with infrstracture planning to met a replacement enegy objective added to ETS & REt , so the voters greedy usage is satisfied with CC
benefits , simply a different policy & polical approach
Dario
#295
your post against Bushfire Bill: “It’s been getting extremely tiresome” That was a little harsh against a ‘left’ guy Whilst Bushfire has a different approach to my view (as expressed above) , he is entitled to make his CC views , some of his points ar actualy quite valid There are aftar all , about 4 different CC & polical approachs been put here plus the consevative posters ideas like JOH
No Ron my 277 refers to a number of comments by various people wanting Rudd to make a bold visionary statement. I originally thought it was a good idea for him to give a “big picture” statement quite a while ago but the comments were getting a little too extreme. With the process unfolding the way it is I could see that that was not what was required and could in fact be politically very damaging, at least if done at the present time.
Even with your idea of a vision(solar power) rather than a full blown visionary speech it was too early. Let more people get their heads around what the major details of CTS are and what it means to them before that happens.
I would have thought such a statement could be made at the presentation of the final White Paper in December, but that would also be dependant on the political dynamics at that time.
The blog “Tree of Knowledge ” gives an idea what situation the Libs are in. At the moment they seem to be disintegrating and heading for unelectable positions on CC. They will recover to a point but they are in trouble. Rudd’s refusal to bite and give them ammunition is working. He is providing the steady leadership at present appropriate to the existing political dynamics.
PS sorry I can’t give you the link. Every time I try it doesn’t work.
Well, we finally are given an explanation for the Housing crisis.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=hrzFyeHSRJI
Ronnie, the speech I am proposing that Rudd makes will include an announcement of a super solar grid, or a range of similar projects. It would speak of the infrastructure needed – industrial, social and educational – to make the thing work.
The common misunderstanding is that I believe just “making a speech” … mere words … would do the trick. No, there have to be concrete announcements as to what he thinks the future holds and plans to start the process rolling, oherwise it is indeed just hot air.
I thought the examples I gave – Churchill, Curtin and Kennedy – were good examples, as they were the clear starting points for real processes that were successful in the face of great odds: beating Hitler, beating the Japanese and beating the Russians.
All of the threats they addressed were existential. All of the processes they began were completed in under a decade, although exact details of how those processes would be finally completed were not known at the time, and indeed were the subject of much scepticism from “the experts”.
It’s a very similar situation with Global Warming. Rudd has a problem which looks insurmountable unless there is international co-operation. The Libs want to wait until we can hide inthe crowd.
But going in sooner rather than later puts us in a position to develop technologies we can license to the world. To develop those technologies we must ramp up higher education and business inputs to it. It also allows us to “lecture” other countries from a position of moral strength and prosperity.
Along the way to our goal there will be spin-offs, just as there were from the Moon race and from other big projects such as the Snowy Scheme. The war itself produced full employment and a new industrial self-sufficiency, especially in Australia.
In the case of the Moon, we haven’t returned for nearly forty years. Some could say Kennedy’s big idea was a failure, in those terms. But it was the spin-offs in technology that sowed the seeds for the world we have today. In the main aim of beating the Russians, the Russians failed to ever send a man to the moon. Ultimately they went broke and lost the Cold War as well. Going to the Moon did its part in that process.
So, please don’t read me as thinking I’m suggesting Rudd just make a bull$hit speech written by spin doctors and then everything will be fixed. That isn’t where I’m coming from at all. The speech, or series of speeches and announcements, would be the equivalent of turning the first sod of Australia’s future, a future mapped out, at least in broad detail, but with definite goals, in those speeches.
We’ve been relying on just digging holes in the ground for far too long. We need a new direction that will be hard to achieve, but rewarding along the journey. I don’t want to endorse just one idea, like your solar grid, as the only possible solution (although I think it’s a candidate for the mix). There are plenty of other things in the pot right now that can add to solar technology and possibly outperform it in harnessing the sun’s heat as well as light, or the energy under the ground. We can use them all. We don’t have to pick winners.
Along the way our educational institutions will need to beguin training tomorrow’s scientists, agriculturalists and environmentalists. Towns near ideal sites for power generating plants will grow, not just during construction, but during operation of these plants. Why not combine education with power generation: “Broken Hill University Of Technology” anyone? “Bourke College Of Advanced Education”?
The possibilities are endless. However, we are not being advised of them. We are simply being told – by both sides of politics, and by the media – that life will be miserable, but we might just pull through all this by a whisker.
This morning there was a photo of a horse and cart on the front page of a newspaper with the caption something like, “Is this the transport of the future?” That is utter defeatism. Every day we get gloom and doom on carbon, on the economy, on house prices. It’s as if the pundits and the politicians have entered the “World’s Biggest Misery-Guts” competition. The fashion is to be as downbeat as possible.
The first politician to show signs of life, and to tell us – with a plan – that things can, and will be better, will remain in government for however long he or she wants to be there.
BB, don’t ever stop giving us your ideas, after all we are on the same side. I do not agree with your thoughts of what magnificent speech Rudd should or should not give.
I will not forget the 70’s were Whitlam was a great orator and we saw his vision.He wanted to act ASAP but he also had a hostile Senate and was unable to fulfill his dreams, even though he was the first to reduce tariffs and we still have Medicare. He could have been our greatest PM only he tried to act too quickly.
Over 2 years ago even though the ALP were winning most of the polls, the ALP still would not have won an election, even though most wanted to get rid of Howard but could not vote for Beasley. Although I preferred Gillard, Rudd was given the job of taking out Howard. The whole atmosphere changed the ALP lifted, the people had been given someone to replace Howard. The ALP has not lost a poll ever since and for over 2 years, now that has got to be a record. Rudd is a process man and he is trying to take the people along, slowly but surely one step at a time, that is his method. Have a listen to B Brown, the Greens they now want to be in the game and are willing to accept something less so they can work in with the ALP re CC.
BB keep up the pressure so we don’t lose our objective.
Muski,
Kennedy was assassinated, Whitlam was politically assassinated, but many of their ideas and ideals live on.
Whitlam had Medicare, which still exists despite the conservatives’ best efforts to kill it. Kennedy had the Moon, and we are conversingon the internet today in large part because the technology to enable it was fast-tracked so that the Moon could be reached by 1970.
I’d like to see a detailed, funded, structured comprehensive plan by Labor for the re-development of Australia on sustainable grounds, with all the benefits that would accrue to the nation, naysayed by the Opposition.
Rudd has already put national broadband on the table and is building it. He wants an Education Revolution to come on stream. There has to be a way of tying these, and many other big ideas together in the context of Global Warming, which is an existential challenge if ever there was one.
Global Warming is something we must address. It’s not an option. But you can address existential threats in two opposing ways…
You can speak only of grim times ahead and a hard slog forever, just to get us back to par.
Or you can speak of grasping the opportunities for development and systemic change that the threat presents, making a better world, not just a pale imitation of the one we have at present.
I agree with Ron, at least general, that an ETS is not the only solution to our problems. The Smarties will find a way to game the system. They could, for example, use uncompetitive practices to send their greener competitors broke and then buy their carbon credits off them for a song, so that the big polluters can go right on polluting. The Smarties in the middle make their commissions in both directions.
There needs to be a positive incentive to change, not a negative one. Something to take a hold of the public’s imagination, bypassing the negativists in the MSM and in politics. We need to start somewhere with something concrete and optimistic.
The virtues of cleaning up Australia’s environmental act could be part of this, but by themselves would be labelled “fluffy” and “Greeny”.
We need to see that the country will be even brighter for our children and grandchildren than it has been for us.
Every time I turn on the TV and watch the news or a current affairs show all I see is doom and gloom, dire warnings and misery. Interest rates, petrol prices, inflation, consumer sentiment. You can only take so much of that before you literally and metaphorically switch off.
Consumer sentiment, the final sump where all this negativity pools, is at an all time low. It could do with a boost. It could do with some good news, even if that good news is about our future… as long as it is not the too far distant future.
You keep bringing up reasons not to try to succeed. Whitlam this, Whitlam that, the MSM will whinge, Nelson will try to delay or defeat. It’s all part of the malaise that’s affecting our society at the moment. The opposition is trying hard to pin all this on Rudd. While I do believe that inflation and interest rates and petrol prices are not Rudd’s fault, I think that a lot of the negativity is. Not all, but a lot of it.
Rudd gives the impression of being a cork on the water just like we are: floating around on the waves of despair telling us all we’re doomed.
We already know that.
Let’s have some hope set out before us for a change, not more and more misery.
I can’t believe how far Andrew Bolt has gone on his blog to-day.
Now headed ‘Planet saved, baby dead’ (earlier it was something like ‘the bag had a conscience’), he ties global warming etc. to the tragic finding this morning of a dead baby in a bus shelter – in a green bag.
He is not apologising for the distress his insensitive remarks are causing!
California has a biger economy than the whole of ‘oz’ So its a serous economic world ‘player’ Its renewal energy target is 20% by 2010 , with programs schedulaled to achieve that using solar & various R E The Green Paper specificaly states the ‘oz’ R E target is 20% by 2020
Lets forget CC & let the world polute , can any one tell me on FUTURE econamic and techological grounds why the ‘oz’ R E target is superior to California’s ?
BB-
totally agree with your criticism of Rudd. And – I’m only mentioning it here because it’s relevant- that’s why there is so much global support for Obama: the message is one thing, but it is the delivery that inspires people. We have seen it with orators throughout history and we are seeing it again now. Rudd comes across as a nice-enough grey suit and in a time of looming crisis I think people need to feel that their leaders are passionate and inspiring , not bland.
Let me add am not talking about empty rhetoric. I am talking about inspiring people to come on board what will inevitably involve sacrifice and change as well as opening opportunities for technological advancement and development of entire new industries and practices.
Opportunity out of adversity – and we need our leaders to sell this idea convincingly.
jen, i also seem to remember a corporal by the name of Hitler was also good at “delivery that inspires people. We have seen it with orators throughout history and we are seeing it again now.” it all depends.
If electric trolleybuses were introduced the coal fired power stations could earn carbon credits as the high efficiency of the electric motor results in less emissions (over diesel buses & trains and cars.)
Because Wong offered free permits to coal fired power stations, against all the advice of Garnaut, all the rentseekers are now demanding similar treatment.
Re the ‘big thing’ BB etc want Rudd to announce, a real overhaul of our public transport would be it! The Overlander train between Adelaide & Melbourne runs way under its possible speed because the track is not up to it. We need to electrify that track as well. No more interstate semis! All interstate freight by rail! Roadworks to be carried out to avoid transport bottlenecks for heavy freight.
When the schools start being fitted with solar panels there should be a ‘lab kit’ where students can do experiments with solar power (hey, wind too) so maybe using this sustainability angle to attract kids to science & engineering instead of business, accounting & law!
Finns-of course it does. But Rudd is not talking about exterminating a race of people – he is talking about meeting the challenges of GW with some practical and difficult interventions (none of which go far enough btw), and needing to convince people that there is really some point to making the changes required.
And we both know how influential good speeches can be.)
(that was meant to be a winky thing at the end- still can’t do the bloody things!)
No , we do not want a a slick yankee snake oil salesman , who does NOT even suport the ratification of Kyoto , has NEVER said the words from his mouth , and his written policy does NOT say so
Kevin07 eats any US Pollie , Sir Kevin actualy ratified Kyoto and is now actualy addressing CC So yes Doug , on those grounds a ‘visionary speech’ by a US pollie like Obama selling pretty words & fluff but no subsrtance would be countra prioductive What Bushfire Bill & I (but differently) are advocating is we would like some TANGABLE enegy solutions articulated
Voters cann’t use ‘ETS’ power in there friges Voters will never understand ETS , and Sir Kev is gonna try to sell this ‘product’ to voters but what voters will understand is threatened job losses by the Libs , at th moment the MSN & Libs scare is useless because the Libs are useless But the opening is there for them IF (we all hope not of couse) the Libs ever organize themselves Politicly never give a Lib sucker an even brealk or an opening So politcly & CC wise both Bushfire Bills approach & my differnt one have grounds
ron- I am only referring to the impact that inspirational speech making can have in getting people to support a particular postion or approach . I am not talking about whether any other orator’s messages are OK or not – this is not the place for that discussion.
I agree with BB that Rudd needs to find a better way to bring people on board and to help them to undertand the issues of CC. At the moment don’t think he is very succesful at doing this- hopefully he will improve.
Amigo Ron,
yep. i have no prob with the way kevin07 is travelling at the moment. Maybe he is the right man for these uncertain and changing times. GW and CC dont need inspiration, they need explanation and perspiration. Kevin07 and Penny Wong could just be the right people to process manage the explanation and perspiration.
btw: ms jen is threading dangerously with (us here) “that’s why there is so much global support for Obama”. Coming off the lowest base of Dubya, even the proverbial drover’s dog would receive much global support.
21/7/08 – RCP National Average 46.1 41.3 Obama +4.8
why he is not +15? Ms jen?
Finns and Ron
I’m with you lot, and snake oil salesman just about sums up that “Great” yank leader.
All this Kev bashing is getting on my tits!
Hey here’s an idea! Why don’t the Kev hating Obama lovers go live over thar with the septics if they reckon OZ is in such a shit condition under our blessed leader?
But be wery wery careful because you might end up living under Oh Mccain you’ve done it again lol!
Guys- I think you’ll find that I am supporting Rudd- just saying he needs to get the mesage across better. Hardly Kevin-bashing!!
Finns- if you want to talk about the US polls you know where to find us.
From the front page of the OZ (quick, before it disappears):
[Nelson told to stand firm on climate – Samantha Maiden, Online political editor CONSERVATIVE Liberal backbenchers have urged Brendan Nelson to male his support for an emissions trading scheme conditional.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/
“Brendan Nelson to male his support for an emissions trading scheme conditional” – I know jesse jackson promised to cut off Obama’s nuts, so is Brendan going to show us his nuts to prove that he is tough on CC?
Would they be Furballs?
Why are Rudd’s acolytes so sensitive when someone makes the fairly undeniable comment that he is a decent but dull, uninspiring, process-driven bureaucrat? We all knew that when we voted for him.
acolytes yourself, and their ain’t anything wrong with being a sensitive new age old gal!
Oops sorry, there i go talking Yank, make that girl not gal.
Diogenes,
You really are a dreary old cynic and it seems to twist your attitude to people and issues. Gerard henderson wrote an interesting article earlier this week regarding the transition to Labor. While I don’t agree with all Henderson’s analysis the following quote sums up the situation fairly well.
“The fact is that many left-of-centre critics of the Rudd Government have never worked in politics and/or the public service, or reported on government, or been involved in running a business. Consequently, they have little understanding of how representative government works in practice and scant political knowledge that there are real constraints on what democratically elected leaders can do – whether they are social democrats or conservatives”.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/gerard-henderson/rudd-or-costello-its-a-mild-ride/2008/07/21/1216492347740.html?page=2
“He could have been our greatest PM only he tried to act too quickly.”
Muskiemp
One comment I saw on Whitlam was that he acted so quickly because he sensed he did not have much time, many conventions were broken in the libs quest to oust Whitlam, including the appointment of senators, the blocking of supply and the advice from a former liberal attorney-general as to whether the govt could be dismissed.
I don’t think it would have mattered if Whitlam had brought in only one new policy or the many he did the end result would have still been the same. Supply blocked, a government dismissed in tough economic times a lot due to world factors and a subsequent landslide victory.
Howard showed the benefit of being able to choose a time in 2001, but how would he have gone in an election before 2007 if his govt had been dismissed when riding low in the opinion polls. What if supply had been blocked during his time, with the media going feral over AWB, telecard, ministers rorting their travel allowances etc etc?
Diogenes -
baets me.Rudd is a decent but colourless political figure. Apparently stating that means I ama Kevin- Hataer … sounding familiar to a former frustrating debate.
Criticism = hatred. Go figure!
geez Growler- Gerard Henderson?
Who’s the cynic!
Dolly should leave the beans alone, just heard he’s causing havoc in Texas with his 100mph winds!
The Liberal split on ETS is coming.
Geez Jen, play the man and not the argument. How unsusual for the residents of Gilligan’s Island. Abusive rhetoric is not debate. How about you provide some substance for a change?
Growler- Diogenes is a “weary old cynic”. I am a “resident of Gilligan’s Island” . and you want some substance? You first…
Now children let’s talk calmly.
My 30s-something daughter in law tells me she feels strangely calm when watching Rudd on telly. Told me that the world is in such an upheaval that his calmness and smiling face make a great change from the bullying and fear of Howard, Costello & Co. This surprised me somewhat but I completely understand it. Rudd and Wong’s calmness are good for my blood pressure too!!
I am still convinced that Rudd is leading us through a process to actually GET somewhere and he has used Nelson and the rabble to make Bob Brown see that a negotiated start is better than a delayed start to the ETS. Was this really his plan all along. Now to convince that conman Fielding and bring the Xenophon through as well.
A slow start to secure us and then whammo with the big projects.
Jen,
Diogenes has used the same descriptor of himself in the past and I’m sure he is capable of being morally outraged without your assistance. As for the Gilligan’s Island description, it’s not actually abuse.
I actually posted something at 323 which you chose to blow off with your usual prejudicial ignorance. How about you addressing that in a substantive way instead of fluffing around in tedious moral indignation.
I agree Sue
These are rough uncertain times, especially with the full fallout from sub-prime yet to come through. Rudd seems to be taking a nice measured approach.
Also still has quite a few committee and review reports to come in, probably when they come in and he starts acting on them then the libs and media will complain he is doing too much too soon.
Sam Maiden has a great article on Costello
IT could be the longest goodbye in Australian political history.
Peter Costello’s Trappist monk routine on his political future has inspired confusion and some annoyance in Liberal ranks.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/samanthamaiden/index.php/theaustralian/comments/costellos_unwritten_ending
Rod
loved the whitlam metaphor
though the MSM would never had savaged Johnny – to them even his shite was perfume LOL
Oh Dear, finishing line fever has broken out in the Queensland Liberal camp with Brough calling a meeting tonight to delay the Nats takeover, just as the Nats have an axe to their necks ready to strike the Liberals out for all time.
Why don’t they just give all their assets to the Nats for nothing and walk away from politics knowing that the Nats now have the numbers to stop any Liberal ever being preselected in the state of Queensland if the Pineapple Party is formed?
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/brough-seeks-to-delay-merger/2008/07/24/1216492613906.html
While I don’t wish to use a switch from Kevin bashing to Obama bashing as a tactic, I do think some people’s optimism in Obama is too high. On foreign policy and social issues I’m sure he will be a huge improvement. But on climate change and fixing the US economy he is in a difficult position. Some of the groups of supporters he has attracted are large parts of the problem, like auto workers in Detroit and coal miners in Tennessee. I don’t see how he can solve those issues without greatly harming some of his core groups of voters. He has already made some very protectionist comments about trade and US farmers too, so I fear he is already badly compromised on economics.
Growler- no outrage here, just having a dig given your former animosity towards anything written by Gerard Henderson (or was that soemone else?).
As for the article you posted – what I get is that basically If Tip had been the Lib leader it would have been a closer eection because there really is no difference between the Libas and Labour apart fom the Apology and ratifying Kyoto, which Costello would have done anyway.
So it seems Henderson is trying to claim Kevin as one of his own true conservatives now… and I don’t actually agree with him on that.
However as a Greens supporter it is hardly surprising that I think the current Gov’t is not “left” enough in some respects. But they are such vast improvement over Howard and the reamaining Joke That Is The Liberal party that I am still pretty happy. And although Rudd is boring I still think he is doing a pretty good job.
OK??
I have absolutely no idea why some people think Mal Brough is a political genius. He only ever seems interested in things for himself. He is a supposed genius on indigenous policy, but couldn’t even hold his own seat at the last election. Now he is stalling an inevitable merger, even though it has the support of the Liberal national executive.
It’s crazy that we have a free trade agreement with the U.S., but they effectively get around it by just handing their farmers direct subsidies to the tune of $300 billion p.a. That’s our entire federal budget.
Shows on, if the Nationals takeover doesn’t look good today then why did the National Executive and the Liberal Party rank and file ever vote for it?
Perhaps Brough has learned his delay tactics from Nelson on Climate change. They could just tie a bow around Liberal Party Headquarters and hand it over to the Nats on Sunday as planned.
Jen,
Definately, someone else. I may not always agree with Henderson, however, I think he plays it as he sees it.
The critical thing about that article is that Rudd is governing for the 86% (you know 6 out of 7) of people who vote Coalition or Labor. The moonbeam Greens and fellow travellers on the left whingeing about his being boring or not going far enough fast enough are actually helping the Government in a perverse way.
With the Libs playing “this is too extreme games”, Rudd can play Goldilocks Politics by not being too hot or too cold, just right for the average voter.
Socrates Says: [While I don’t wish to use a switch from Kevin bashing to Obama bashing as a tactic, I do think some people’s optimism in Obama is too high] – they are laying out the red carpet for you on the G island.
Steve: I’ve got to laugh, the QLD Coalition parties couldn’t organise a chook raffle, let alone a merger LOL
And, I’m not at all disappointed in Rudd! Remember he’s got against him an obstructionist opposition and a hostile media. In those circumstances, he’s doing damn well to be still an average 10 points ahead in the polls.
Growler- apologies for my mistake re Henderson. Thoght you saw him and Bolt in the same light – have to say i do.
Indeed Finns –
ShowsOn – try out the US site if you like -there is a bit of a different atmosphere over there.
Jen, If the islands so great why do you keep coming back to hang out with the cool kids?
And let’s not forget petrol prices, that’d hurt any government right now.
ESJ: I miss you too much, that’s why I keep coming back here.
Our Gough , not an econamics man for sure , but ‘crash through or crash’ was his motto , but we got uiversal healthcare , out of Voetnam , recognised China & a plan to pipeline cheap gas from NW WA to Sydney Melbourne (but teh banker had no mullah)
Diferent times & challenges today , CC vs economic and Sir Kevin is the man , clever , methodical & governance process (reverse of howardism) Sir Kev rarified Kyoto & IS comitted to CC , unlike those slippery 2 US Pres candidates who talk pretty literature words , & unlike those heathen liberal rabbles now dissunified oh the pleasure it brings For mine , would hav liked to have seen in the Green Paper a fully costed super solar grid /equivalent with th scheduled phase in & infrastructure scheduled , good for CC and good for future high tech ‘oz’ industries & jobbs for our kids
Now it aint there , so will send a sub for it put in the White Paper , dubbed the PB solar special , more boldnes sir Kev but not crash or crash Goughy politcly the dander is sir Kev cann;t say anthing till the White Paper , thats months of the scare Libs terminiting ETS by July 2010 , do not like to give the Libs such free tim to undermine
Sue “slow start to secure us and then whammo with the big projects.’ , great !!
Vera “their ain’t anything wrong with being a sensitive new age old gal!” Now Vera just delete ‘old’ and substitute ‘clever’ , and thats reely the you we believe
The trouble with the “Goldilocks” approach, Growler is that we are talking about a real issue that has nothing to do with political spin. If the earth warms by 2 degrees the impact will be catastrophic and it really doesn’t matter whether the voters liked it or not. The Greens are pushing for strategies that will help to prevent this outcome, and they are not going to be popular or easy for the electorate. Given that, BB is willing to negotiate with Rudd and the Coalition to try and get at least some progerss happening. But it is too little too late from a climate change perspective. Forget the politics for a minute.
Progressive what me me laugh is that dozens of councils have been merged over the past year with no lasting dramas but the Queensland conservatives can’t even manage to get two small parties working as one.
ESJ- one site discusses the US election and this site discusses Australian politics.
I am interested in both.
ESJ,
I’ve been out making a shilling so haven’t kept up with the scandalous revelations re the Gilligans Island back door emails and agreements. Have you revealed all yet, or are you just playing strip tease?
Honestly Growler- we’ve been begging him.
not.
I think the fact that the media have been unable to wipe the smile off Kev’s face or get him flustered no matter what they try says something.
Bopping with the pope and pilgrims one week, gone bush for barbie with the folks at Arnhem Land the next, smiling all the way.
Some of you are not immpressed with his CC green paper, which is fair enough, but me I’m like Sue H’s daughter, happy that the hate, nastiness and bigotry seems to be gone with the Rodent.
I’m willing to give Kev a go until we see what’s in the white paper in a few months. I might have a bitch then if necessary but for now keep the smiles coming.
Nice photo here
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/history-made-among-the-stringybarks/1225283.aspx
Rod @ 335 -
This:
JWH, you may be surprised to learn, is ensconced up on the 12th floor of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Offices in a taxpayer-funded suite just down the corridor from Brendan Nelson’s office. The scuttlebutt is that Howard sometimes calls Nelson into his office for a chat.
Confirms what I’ve suspected. The rodent is still pulling the strings that make the parliamentary party dance. May explain why Cossie is not interested in the leadership.
.
Jen @ 339 -
As for the article you posted – what I get is that basically If Tip had been the Lib leader it would have been a closer eection because there really is no difference between the Libas and Labour apart fom the Apology and ratifying Kyoto, which Costello would have done anyway.
That might have been the election ploy, but would he really have ratified Kyoto? It’s pretty clear that the party is still dominated by Howard, or at least his most ardent supporters, Minchin, Andrews, Bishop, etc, who are clearly GW deniers. Nor am I convinced that a Costello government would have issued the Apology.
The one thing that really puzzles me about the Opposition’s CC policy is the Nats going along with it. The people likely to be hardest hit by CC are there supporters. Who’ll be voting for them if the bush is an unpopulated dust bowl? Feral camels?
Must admit I think people here are being very kind to Henderson. At least Bolt has some consistency. Henderson’s article claiming that Rudd is just like Howard is classic intellectual slipperiness. He is trying to rewrite the Howard years and pretend that the “cultural war” never really happened. He’s right but he certainly banged on about it at the time as though it did.
Put it another way, he might say Rudd is like Howard but even now he couldn’t get himself to say that Howard is like Rudd. Give me Bolt any day, at least he is upfront about what he thinks and sometimes he calls it right. Henderson rarely does.
Every poll at the time told you, Costello would have been an electoral disaster. The Libs weren’t stupid in not going for him.
GG – #355 – [Have you revealed all yet, or are you just playing strip tease?], you mean it gonna be more exciting than [have urged Brendan Nelson to male his support for an emissions].
you cannot be serious.
Mayo Feral-
I was summarising what Henderson was saying. I agree tha Costello would hae been even more of a liability than JWH proved to be and Henderson is just ding his usual stunt of pretending that the Libs are not as conservative as they really are.
Mayo (358)
I think the Nats scepticism shows exactly that this the coalition’s scepticism is not about winning votes. Tony Windsor shows how CC action has strong support in the Nats heartland. The Nats problem is more serious, they don’t stand for anything and are trying to find a way of distinguishing themselves.
I think inner metropolitan Libs have the same dilemma where their electorates are some of the strongest supporters of cc action.
Jen, is he talking about the creatures of the Black Lagoon on the G Island? I knew you guys were strange.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24069951-663,00.html
Mayo
“May explain why Cossie is not interested in the leadership.”
Good point.
“The Libs weren’t stupid in not going for him.”
Yeah, I know, didn’t stop some of us in trying to convince the libs otherwise though!
Rod, I really wish they would draft Costello as leader. It would be hilarious.
Don’t be greedy TPS, it’s hilarious having Nelson as leader.
The Fibs split starts next week – Shadow Cabinet Tuesday – Party Room Wednesday.
The ETS is not the reason, just the catalyst. Some of these guys just hate each other.
ruawake, did you ever find those elusive Climate Change ads?
steve @ 370.
Yep, but I cant remember the URL.
If Brough get his way and delays a QLd merger tonight (this was always his job), the split will start in Pineapple land over the weekend when Liberal members resign and join the Nats.
My understanding is, if this happens, there will be 2 Libs in the Qld parliament.
The possibility is for a few Independent Liberal types after the next election too. But the Liberals only hold two Brisbane seats and the Nationals no Brisbane seats, at present so how the Nationals takeover is a winner when Brisbane won’t have a bar of them is beyond me.
If the Liberals split and Nicholls of Clayfield defects to join the Pineapple Party, Bruce Flegg of Moggill will be the only Brisbane based Liberal in the Queensland parliament.
But will Flegg be leader?
The Liberals will probably lose party status, so there will be no leader required. Especially as the Liberal Leader,McArdill and Deputy Leader Nicholls were on Channel ten tonight looking set to leave the Libs if push comes to shove and Brough stalls the takeover.
The Piping Shrike @ 363 -
The Nats problem is more serious, they don’t stand for anything and are trying to find a way of distinguishing themselves.
Well I suppose encouraging the destruction of your constituents whole way of life is certainly one way of standing out. But it seems not to have been a roaring success for the last blokes to try it, the Easter Island tribal council!
GG – 355
Being a peaceable person by nature I have demurred but I am tempted to reveal the correspondence.
“CONSERVATIVE Liberal backbenchers have urged Brendan Nelson to “get some backbone” and abandon support for an emissions trading scheme in Australia without action by major polluters overseas.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24070048-11949,00.html
Denis Jensen
Don Randall
Alby Schulz
Concetta Fierravanti-Wells
What an inspiring bunch of CONSERVATIVES. These Brenda backers have nowhere to go if they fail. Maybe the Mad Monk will be their saviour.
I wonder if Greg Hunt will go to the back bench if his and Turnbull’s policy is rolled?
379 ruawake, you safely add Kevin Andrews to your list too.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/watershed-for-nelson-as-libs-divide-on-climate-20080723-3jyo.html
379
clueless dolts
Where is their ‘green paper’ on the economic doom they’re predicting?
I think Alby Schulz must still believe the earth is flat. Take a look at his electorate of Hume and explain how a largely rural electorate is an obvious net loser from taking steps to combat climate change – it’s beyond me.
It’s be as simple as an aesthetic opposition to wind turbines I’m betting.
Amazing how being Promoted from Queensland Liberal Parliamentary Leader to Deputy Pineapple Leader has given McArdle a loftier and grander perspective on the lives of others.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/mcardle-blasts-broughs-merger-delay-tactic/2008/07/24/1216492613906.html
It appears to me that the people who want Brenda to “get some backbone” are the same who voted for him in the leadership ballot.
So Allbull still has about 50% of the party behind him – the other half want their choice to stop being a jellyfish, sorry Brenda is never going to grow a backbone.
7’s 4.30 news ticker running along bottom of screen said Jeff Kennet might run for Lord Mayor of Melbourne.
Smirk might get a job as the deputy dog (well he’s proved he’s too gutless to be a leader afterall)
What i want to know is this The Fedaral Libs & Fedaral Nats hav there own separate Party meetings in Canberra , which are held concurently for time & logistics reesons Now the new Q’ld Fedaral Liberal National Party MPs will face a dilemma Which Party room meeting of the two will they attend ?
Now if the Fedaral Libs & Fedaral Nats to help out , then decide to hold there meetings at different times , then the new Q’ld Fedaral Liberal National Party MPs will have to face 2 meetings , but all other Fedaral Libs and Nats will only hav to attend one ?
BUT the BEST part will be when the new Q’ld Fedaral Liberal National Party MPs
attend a Liberal Party meeting to vote for a fundamental Fed Liberal propossal (that the Fed Nats firmly oppose) , then they’ll naturally vote with the Libs proposal BUT when they later go to the Fed Nats meeting , they’ll have vote against that same Libs proposal ?
Ron, that’s nuthin’ just wait till the next meeting to decide the Federal Liberal Leader and all the Pineapple party members and senators are eligible to vote even Boswell, Joyce etc.
Barnaby for Leader!
I quite enjoy the guy. Much more intereeting than Neslon, Bishop et al.
Steve
Does this mean the new Q’ld MP’s get to vote for BOTh the new Fed Liberal Leader AND the new Fed Nats leader ? (whereas other other Fed Libs & Fed Nats only get to vote for there own individual Party’s leader ?
ron @ 389
Yes – Barnaby said it was his right.
Runawake yea , you’re probabley right there he’d actualy think that ! I mean Barnaby got popped out of a Q’ld town where he used to run the local bingo night , and now he’s making decisons of state & he takes himself seriously , gotta given to the Nats they know how to pick quality
Barnaby Joyce came out a while ago and said because the Pineapple Party is a Division of the Liberal Party of Australia and an affiliate of the National Party are are free to choose which Party Room meeting they attend on any given day.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23960612-5006786,00.html
Steve “MPs can choose whichever partyroom they want to sit in. People could chop and change between partyrooms.”
Sort of grown up musical chairs reely With Barnaby & his merry men the loose cannons
The funny thing is Brendan Nelson and the Federal Liberal Executive endorsed this madness.
M. Python is apparently in charge of Federal Liberal policy, or so it seems
Gusface, you should see who is in charge of the Queensland Liberals. Today we saw the Queensland Liberal President and the Liberal Parliamentary Leader sledging each other through the camera’s of the media.
I can see the cartoons coming , of Nats running between meetings led by the lion hearted Barnaby
It breaks all semblanse of the 2 Partys credibility vs all other Lib and Nats MP’s
Why would the Q’ld Libs agree to what reely is a takeover , give there assets effectively away for free , and in the long run they’ll hav no power in the branch structure & perhaps even the identity will go Its almost politcal rape with a smile from the victim ?
323 GG
Lets take your comments one by one.
1. “The fact is that many left-of-centre critics of the Rudd Government have never worked in politics and/or the public service, or reported on government, or been involved in running a business.”
I have worked in the public service, reported on government and I run a business. So please enlighten me regarding the relevance of your argument to my situation.
2. I don’t recall using the term “dreary” or “old” regarding myself. They are just a good old-fashioned “ad hominem” argument. In addition, I use the term “Cynic” rather than “cynic” regarding myself. I have explained the significant differences between the terms on a few occasion but it can be difficult to educate all of the people all of the time.
I would also like to add that you can tell more about someone by their enemies than their friends, and to have Gerard Henderson attack people who think like me gives me a warm inner glow.
My undertanding is that “Optional Preferential Voting” has forced this shot gun marriage in Qld between the Nats and Libs. It would be fantastic if once the union is consumated Labor moves to bring back exhaustive preferential voting again.
Try big money, free plane rides and helicopter trips, Ron, and the fantasy of winning the next election. Plus no preselection battles for seats of current members and senators. Quite an attractive deal.
Nah they should merge, then they can have two main factions – Liberals and Nationals, and two sub-factions per main faction.
Diogenes,
The key word was “many”. There are always rogues sampling on the Bell curve of life.
Cynic/cynic, you say Potato, I say potato.
Dreary, old ,very relevant.
I love Rudd being attacked from the left. It just helps consolidate his postion. Please continue.
Even the demonstrators are confused.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/24/2313838.htm
Steve
See the demonstrators , demonstrate over a picadilly merger but not over CC , got there priorities right
You mentioned some fringe benefits , what was in it for the Q’ld Libs executive whose main role is top protect the party ? What i’m thinking is in Brissy , where are there enough Nats votes to hurt the Libs and vice versa in Q’ld country , was it in the coastal towns in the 2000km from Maroochy to Cairns with prefs optional ?
Ah, those who love to attack Rudd from the left? I’m sure the lefties here will be so pleased to know that the market is back baby. Oh yeah! God bless capitalism.
GG
I think “dreary” is an excellent word to sum up Rudd. Dunno about old as I’m only a young thing at 40.
You must be in the minority at PB amongst the hard-line Rudd supporters in loving it when the left attacks him. You may recall my original observation that Rudd acolytes are very sensitive when the left points out what an dull, colourless and uninspiring leader Rudd is.
I think he is also very decent, competent and safe which balance out the criticisms. He is a long way ahead of the alternative.
The Nats have built in a zonal system Ron, known as a malapportionment. There are more rural zones than the two for South East Queensland where the majority of people live and Liberals live. This builds in a huge majority for the Nats in the meetings that matter.
Steve
I stand corrected:
“M. Python is apparently in charge of Federal Liberal policy, or so it seems ”
They are obviously subcontracting to the Qld branch as well ,)
where did it go to Did Barnaby hav it
Steve
when i was in Brissy Joh had that systsem , a reel gerrymander , didn’t Goss get rid of it or Beattie , how has it survived
or are you talking specif re Party meetings
Ron, this is all within the structure of the Pineapple Party. The point about the demonstrators is it sounds like they are party hacks and members who don’t realise that only delegates get to vote on the weekend.
Anyway with 10 000 members including rams, bulls and racehorses as no independent verification of their membership has been made public the Queensland Nationals would outnumber the 5 000 odd Liberal members.
I just can not see how there are about 120 members of the National Party for each electorate in Queensland, it defies commonsense and only about 6 000 votes were received when they mailed them out to the members. I fail to see why the vote wasn’t conducted by the Electoral Commission anyway.
Amigo GG
Steve tonight has restored my faith that the Q’ld libs reely are pineapples & always have been , but now see it was the Nat farm rams & bulls that voted for the merger
Now this is like the Q’ld liberal National party circus riddle questons i asked earlier with there revolving doors Now likewise nn the other thread i was always addressed as “Ron’/ron” Therefore I was never sure whether i should give one answer or two , and if two answers were required did both answers hav to be the same
Tonight i find there is a difference between “Cynic’ and “cynic” So if I’m accused of both , have I got two different insults , or tewo different complements , or 50/50 ?
I wonder if the Pineapple party will retain the historical factions of Nats and Libs? Sort of like how in S.A. there is a historic split between the Liberal & Country League and the Liberal Movement that still influences the make up of the different S.A. Liberal party factions.
Ron/ron,
yes and no, but not yet.
just knew you’d clarity it
Two Tasmanian senators are locked in a dogfight.
“A preselection battle has begun as two Tasmanian Liberal senators fight to secure their political futures.
Senator Guy Barnett and Senator Stephen Parry are jostling for a safe spot on the party’s ticket, two years out from the federal election.
Neither senator wants the ticket’s third spot, which would give them only an even chance of retaining their seat in Federal Parliament.”