The increasingly unpredictable Roy Morgan has released a face-to-face survey of 797 voters conducted just over a week ago, showing Labor’s two-party lead up to 60-40 from 59-41 at the larger poll conducted over the two previous weekends. Both Labor (48 per cent) and the Coalition (34.5 per cent) are down 0.5 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens spiking from 8 per cent to 11.5 per cent, mostly at the expense of “independent/others” (down from 6 per cent to 3.5 per cent).
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 60-40
Copyright © 2008 Private Media Pty Ltd, Publishers of Crikey.com.au. All Rights Reserved.
Independent news, blogs and commentary on politics, media and business.
Editor: Jonathan Green.
Publishers: Eric Beecher, Diana Gribble.
Level 7, 22 William St, Melbourne, 3000. Ph: 1800 985 502 Fax: (03) 8623 9975
474 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 2 3 [4] 5 6 … 10 » Show All
It is important to bear in mind that those who are not satisfied with his performance may include some Green/Labor voters who don’t think he went far enough. Suffice it to say, those kinds of voters are very unlikely to drift to the Coalition, whose environmental credentials make Union Carbide seem decidely lime in comparison.
147 ruawake here is a Getup ad and the original Government ads.
http://www.duncans.tv/2007/getup-cleverer-on-climate-change-in-australia
From Andrew Bolts Blog: If Michael Short can doubt, so can the Liberals
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/if_michael_short_can_doubt_so_can_the_liberals/
I like the transcript from ABC Adelaide 891 which interviewed Dr David Evans, who once helped the Australian Greenhouse Office build models predicting terrible warming.
Interesting.
That was so last year,eh?
“Does anyone have a link to the ETS ads? I have yet to see one.”
Ru
I’ve seen one, they are a bit fluffy, the feel good type, basically saying how we have to do these changes to save the planet.
On CC, I’m not sure about the science and what it means, but I do equate increased pollution through industry and people (eg cars aircons etc) with having an effect on the climate.
There has been resistance to pollution reducing measures, cost to industry jobs lost are the usual scare campaigns. We have seen CFC’s abolished which was going to increase the price of fridges, freezers and aircons,leaded petrol gone, which probably upset blokes like ute man and measures to stop excess pollution by industries and vehicles. Yet the anti-pollution measures have had general support with the current affairs programs highlighting the pollution from industries that people had to put up with in places like Mt Isa and Kembla.
As for getting China, India and USA onside, I remember when new emission controls were brought in on vehicles with the support of the Australian car makers. I was quite surprised that they supported it until it was pointed out to me that the new measures meant no more VW Beatles could be imported because they failed to meet the new rules. Meant the Australian car makers got rid of a major rival and as a bonus looked like caring greenies.
India and China probably view CC measures as a way of restricting their production and the USA doesn’t want to play because their industries are under so much pressure.
Funny thing with China, they are bringing in their own pollution control measures for the Olympics to try and improve the air quality in terms of breathability and visability. Be interesting to see the before and after results and whether the Chinese government and Chinese people think that maybe it should be continued and expanded after the Olympics.
Surely it must dawn on the Liberal party soon that they need to end speculation over the leadership?
Costello could end his bit of the problem by saying I will not contest the leadership – he won’t because in my view he is happy causing mischief.
Brenda says Costello will get a front bench job if he asks for one – but surely the only job he really wants is Brenda’s or maybe Malcolms. What senior shadow minister is going to get dumped?
(Thanks steve)
Costello should wait until several months before an election then become opp leader, let the people forget about him for a while. All this talk about Costello is raising just rasing expectations no one can live up to that.
JoM
For Costello to become leader he needs the backing of his party, I doubt he has the numbers now (as usual) or if he has it will be only a couple of votes.
This goes to the Liberal – Conservative divide, Tip is too “left” for many.
139
steve
This freer FOI will finally put paid to Tip’s political career. He applied conclusive certificates to bracket creep (think that was an error in his budget he just decided to hide it) and realised losses in foreign currency speculation due to his bumbling.
The day the new regime is in force the people that wanted that info will be applying to finally get it.
Bye bye Tip
From #153 John of Melbourne
You might also find interesting Tim Lambert’s demolition job on Evans.
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/
Fred I can’t find anything.
JoM, and other bludgers, just a brief visit. Bring back Tip! Bring him back whenever you like! That last ‘called for’ meeting with the press, during which he was extremely rude to Michelle Grattan, will remain with many as the mark of the man. Don’t like it. Unacceptable behaviour.
Jom
Scroll down from freds link or try
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2008/07/the_australians_war_on_science_16.php
HSO if he becomes opposition leader Michelle can go for him then. Isn’t she due to retire soon?
Catrina,
Today’s actions are a start, but my minimum conditions for posting remain. You know what is required.
EStJ
BTW, think the Fed libs. are a mess. Labor could do better, but bugger, they’ve inherited an absolute nightmare, economically and ecologically, and particularly, globally.
The more I’ve looked at the global climate change information, the more I’m inclined to decide that we’re stuffed, and that the political process won’t help our kids and grandkids. It’s not that it’s particularly the fault of the politicians, they have limited power. It’s more that people are greedy.
#165 ESJ, are you having a blogging affair with the one women yapping lady? do tell.
Peter Martin gives the pay the polluters theory a nice old slap across the face.
“This column is about the coal-fired power industry, but it could have been about the asbestos industry, or the tobacco industry
Never once on the countless occasions that Australian governments have restricted the sale of tobacco have they felt compelled to compensate the manufacturers for ‘’significant reductions in their profitability”.
Why would they? The cigarette manufacturers knew what was coming (and had decided to invest anyway) and were blessed with rusted-on customers.
But there was another more important reason why our governments didn’t offer ”compensation” to the industry they were trying to cripple.
To do it would have been to accept that the existing tobacco manufacturers had continuing ”rights” that the government had to buy out in order to proceed.
It would have helped create a precedent that would have undermined the right of Australia’s parliaments to act as they saw fit.
It would have undermined our sovereignty as voters…”
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/07/tuesday-column-wongs-gift-to-lobbyists.html
A gentleman never kisses and tells Finns.
John of Melbourne 153 Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 7:23 pm
“From Andrew Bolts Blog: If Michael Short can doubt, so can the Liberals”
There are also scientists who believe horses would win a formula 1 race against cars We do hav otherwise “Uni educated” people who believe in witch craft , of which Andrew Bolte is a believer But any objectivve person can simply use there eyes re CC For the cdoubters read the world’s top 400 IPCCC Reports , this is a collective group of the worlds 400 best accross all politcl divides , and only a fool would ignore so many
My conservative adversary ,
credibility given is participation in a circus , if you give a Bolte re CC the semblance of undeserving respect , it reconfirms his behavour anti CC beliefs
Finns, Catrina insisted on plausible deniability, probably due to fear of Charlie in one of his showy rages.
ESJ, methinks you got competition. Your old matey is not happy!!
168
steve
Interesting argument, but a tad disingenuous: what public good does tobacco consumption produce?
Comparing tobacco to say, coal fired electricity is so flawed it’s ludicrous.
The problem is that the current infrastructure is so biased towards coal in most places, that alternatives will find it hard to raise the capital to compete. This needs to be addressed, but to twist a well known metaphor about taxation, without the goose hissing too loudly.
Therein lies the problem: we want ‘clean energy’ but the price will have to be adjusted gradually so that alternatives can get into the game (often with long lead times), and there’s no point driving up costs too steeply and killing off industrial production in the short term.
I don’t see the tobacco and coal industries as analogous at all, but it sounds good on first reading (just).
Jovial monk
#159
spot on , Keating described mr Smirks budget surplus perfectly If you overtax voters , give only part of it back later but offset it by bracket creep , and spend less than that on consumption , any 15 yr old can end up with a surplus’s He said Smirk ignoored strucutral reform & infrastucture investment to achieve surplus’s , at th expense of our current account deficit & long term growth BUT did you think best of all was Howards ‘concession’ speech linking Smirk to all LCP policys ie. incl W/C ,Hhoward pointedly only took responsibility for the electon loss itself
Harry
#162
“It’s not that it’s particularly the fault of the politicians, they have limited power. It’s more that people are greedy”
Harry you’re letting all Pollies off litely there They could lead & ONLY as an example say we want a super solar grid, & ’sell’ it , make a stand
Steve
#168
brillant article , i’ll post the balance of Garnaut’s argument , that the govt has partly ignored
“Among the reforms for which Garnaut pointed out Australian businesses have not been compensated were the floating of the dollar, the introduction of the goods and services tax and the massive tariff cuts that Garnaut himself oversaw as Bob Hawke’s economic adviser in the 1980s.
By the same token he pointed out that there had been no tradition of taking away from businesses the extraordinary windfall gains that they had enjoyed as a result of government decisions, including cuts in the company tax rate.
In the case of emissions trading, businesses had been ”aware of the risks of carbon pricing for many years”. Many had ‘’sought to re-engineer their production processes to reduce their reliance on emissions”.
He must have been worried that the argument wasn’t getting through. In his draft report released just days before last week’s Government green paper, he devoted an entire appendix to applying the argument explicitly to coal-fired electricity generators.
There was ”no basis” for the claim that generators had a ”right to emit carbon dioxide and this right is being taken away by a policy change”.
As he put it ”governments always retain the absolute right to vary policy and industry is generally cognisant of the risk”.
After reading Dr David Evans…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24036736-7583,00.html
… he gives his game away in the last two paragraphs:
“The Labor Government is about to deliberately wreck the economy”
This sounded so good I’ll say it again in the last para…
“wrecking the economy”
Evans was in his job from 1999 to 2005 and stated “We scientists had political support, the ear of government, big budgets” and he claims to be an AGW adherent at the time – but not any more.
Sounds just a tad like the ubiquitous, lying, “I am a Labor (or Lib) supporter, you know, but will never vote for them again blah, blah.
Big budgets, ear of govt, political support for Climate Change research???
WTF – Howard was PM all this time!
Give us a break, Dave.
159 & 139
No doubt if they can access docos relating to the money exchange losses there could be some action at the O K corral.
Tip is on record on Lateline 2002 as stating, after treasury officials said in excess of $3billion, that no such losses occurred!
Maxine McKew just happened to be chairman.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/stories/s488779.htm
176
Here he is in April 2007, same stuff, but also trotting out the highly erroneous ‘cosmic ray’ thesis of Henrik Svensmark .(This is now so discredited it makes you question the motives of the said Dr):
http://backseatdriving.blogspot.com/2007/04/climate-skeptics-guest-post-why-david.html
Amigo Ronnie,
I think I now know why the Libs were and are still the CC skeptic.
They got a secret weapon. All we need are more of those Fuel Magic Pills from Firepower. In no time, it will increase fuel efficiency by 40% and reduce emission by 30%.
As TIM JOHNSTON, the Firepower entrepreneur was under the active patronage of Julie Bishop & Johnny Howard, they got nothing to worry about. They can solve the CC problem by simply popping pills.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/firepower-chief-had-dinner-with-howard/2008/07/14/1215887540796.html
Obviously recent conversion of Nelson into a CC skeptic must have something to do with the Magic Fuel Pills. As a medical doctor, he would know something about pills.
I pity Kevin Rudd and Penny Wong for doing it the hard way. I also pity Austrade and I am not related to John Finnin.
Gaffhook
the Australian Office of Financial Management is reported handling the transactions so you’d think there is a money trail of the losses Who would hav decided on one hand to abandon the 15 per cent cap on foreign debt holdings for 18 monts cause as that would need minuting and also that sounds like there were then losses , and they tried to ‘win’ back those losses with a biger ‘punt’ on the currency , and lost even more
When the nuclear physicists sort out nuclear fusion, all this climate change fluffing around is gonna look pretty silly. Just relax and let the scientists solve the problems created by the greedy consumers.
Diogenes ,
why cann’t they instead invent a cost effect super solar grid , then those fearful of nuclar power & nuke waste can get on the happy days solar ship Let the sun do all the work , its not going away
Diog, why wait for the physicists and scientists to sort out nuclear fusion thingo. Someone has done it already. His name is God and his masterpiece is called the Sun.
btw: do they allow you to escape from the gulag? i thought the harsh mistress is cracking her whip hard.
ronster and Finns
Solar grids can never be made “energy dense” enough to be of more than token efforts. True, the sun uses nuclear fusion but we can improve on what was a fairly crude model created quite some time ago.
Nuclear fusion uses hydrogen, not uranium. It has minimal meltdown potential compared to nuclear fission reactors. It also has fairly harmless waste products, mainly helium. There is a HUGE project in France to build a FUSION reactor. The Rodent, being anti-science and a cretin to boot, opted out of Oz being involved. Perhaps Ruddski could get us back in the 21st Century.
Australia should follow road to nuclear fusion
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/australia-should-follow-road-to-nuclear-fusion/2006/08/26/1156012783617.html?page=fullpage
Finns I suspect Diogenes is an entryist.
Diogenes
A US scientific plan is actualy to have a super solar grid The plan would supply 74% of ALL US electriity needs & 35 % of all US energy needs However it requires a longterm infrastructure project to complet The project is theoretcal ambitious , huge tracts of the US south west used to erect photovoltaic cells Excess daytime energy would be stored as compressed air in underground caverns to be tapped during nighttime hours , plus larg solar concentrator power plants also need building Then they’d construct adirect-current power transmission backbone to deliver solar electricity throughtout the US , at 420 billion cost So solar can be done at a cost of 1/2 of one years cost of the Iraq War
ESJ, a legend in her own mind already.
so sad, so soon.
as the harsh mistress is the moon.
Has the Devil successfully tempted MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai?
Put the Party hats on. We’ve all been invited.
“EIGHT months after being tossed on to the political scrap heap, John Howard is preparing for his first return to parliament to celebrate his government’s achievements.
Sydney talk-back radio host Alan Jones, recovering from prostate surgery, is being tipped to host a gala dinner in Parliament’s Great Hall on September 3. The architect of the controversial waterfront dispute, Peter Reith, and other Howard loyalists have also been invited.
But even before the RSVPs are in, some Liberal MPs are predicting a “night to forget”.
“Yeah, I will bring out all the old WorkChoices jokes,” one Liberal wag said of the $120-a-head dinner.
Mr Howard, who is making a mint on the global speakers’ circuit, will be the guest of honour along with his wife, Janette.”
“Put the Party hats on. We’ve all been invited.”
Steve , can we all please put on ’solar’ party hats to stick it up the rodent , as we drink his free beer & wines ?
Amigo FINNS
“Has the Devil (Mugabe) successfully tempted MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai?”
Hope not amigo , he needs to do a Mandella , in the long run Zimbarbwe would be better off By the way , those pre conditions set by our friend , surely they would include the lingos Gilligan Island mod. job specifications you posted ?
Ron, nothing is free. Just limit your excitement to $120 worth of amusement.
ESJ re # 165 The rising damp continued…
“GG, I’ll post it tomorrow night.”
Not a dry pair of pajamas in the house…
Have you put your recycle bin out?
Steve: The Road to Nowhere: AWB Indian Arrests & Other Tales…byo
celebrate his [Howard's] government’s achievements
Gunna be a mighty short party then. They’d be able to celebrate the GST, torturing several thousand
political prisonersrefugees and an illegal war during morning smoko, wouldn’t they?I trust they are going to be charged the full going rate on the hire of the hall.
Oops. Forgot the ignored interest rate rises!
The Brough honeymoon is over too I see. Hero to zero in a month.
“In the space of a month, former Howard government minister Mal Brough has gone from being touted as a possible conservative saviour in his home state of Queensland to being a potential conservative wrecker.
A little over a month ago, Brough stormed back into public life when he romped home in a ballot for the presidency of the Queensland Liberal Party. But that’s where his triumph ended. Brough had made a mark for himself as the straight-talking, military trained politician who led the politically popular intervention into the Northern Territory’s indigenous communities.
With the Queensland Liberal and National Parties on the cusp of merging, this was president Brough’s hour to prove he had a different skill set; as an organisational chief he now required attributes such as diplomacy, consultation and finessing. The job proved to be beyond him and his public failure has cast doubts on his future in politics. To put it simply, Brough has gone from hero to zero.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24055711-7583,00.html
Ron at 148
“Most voters will never understand the ETS anyway , but what they understand is emmissions hav to be cut , but they still want there friges & aircons in full energy use as now”
That is the crux of the problem facing the Gov’t and us. Even though the vast majority of people support the policy it is still basically unreal to many. Most people do not see too far ahead and they do not see why they should suffer now for the future which still seems unreal.
Polls are an indication of how people think but they do not measure the depth of their committment. It could still be very soft figures. While there are no targets and what the rise in cost will mean to each person, it is difficult to say for sure which way people will jump. We are still in “airy -fairy land” until this happens. The reaction of people to petrol prices is not hopeful.
As BB says the Libs are not afraid of being called hypocrits. If people changed their minds the Libs are quite capable of becoming full blown skeptics for political benefit. If this happens then the Libs and the people deserve each other. It is all right being in favour of a policy while someone else pays but sincerity is judged by how much one is willing to suffer personally.
My major point is that a Process is being followed by the Gov’t and to be fair we need to wait until it is finished before making a judgement. We are only half way through. And that polls which some people quote with almost religous fervour may not be real indicators of what people will eventually think. But the thing is people have a choice- do they ignore CC and blow everything for the present or do they vote for their own future and their childrens future by addressing the problem. The people will only have themselves to blame if they go the wrong way. They cannot scapegoat the politicians.
Whichever way things go eventually, we must try. I don’t believe there is any other choice.
Steve , reading the full article , Brough’s utter selfishnes to be Pres despite the rules of a plebisciite & his hypocracy is evident , Pres Brough or no merger and then to email mit far & wide ?
Ron, the problem is that all the current sitting members senators and have been guaranteed their seats without any preselection process and Brough wants to be cut in with a similar deal.
Steve 189
It looks like Howard is pretty fanatical about his legacy and how he will be remembered in history. Pity there may not be a planet to remember him because he and particularly Bush refused to do anything about CC.
It is all about perspective.
Pages: « 1 … 2 3 [4] 5 6 … 10 » Show All