Morgan has released another poll just five days after the last, from a face-to-face survey of 1067 voters conducted last weekend. The agency’s figures had previously been holding out in the pre-budget Rudd honeymoon zone, but they have now come down to earth with a drop from 60-40 to 55-45. This has partly been driven by a drop in the Greens vote to 7.5 per cent from an anomalous 11.5 per cent last time.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 55-45
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486 Comments
Diogenes Says: [Finns - Every time I see Penny Wong I’m reminded of Ruddock and Reith] – Diog, try as you may. Two Whites will never make a Wong. The Times that They are a changin’. They were wong before in the WAP days and they are still wong today.
WAP = White Australia Policy
I think that we can put these Morgan figures down to another week when the banks are madly sending out letters advising of more non-Reserve Bank interest rate hikes. We’ve just got our fourth letter for the week – it all gets a bit much after a while.
Taking into account Morgan’s pro Labor bias, will Newspoll next week show the result as 51-49?
I’m not surprised about the narrowing! Fairly or unfairly, Rudd is copping the blame for petrol and grocery price rises/increased cost of living! And most people don’t understand an ETS, making them susceptible to Nelson’s scare campaign.
Wouldnt it be ironic if what we are seeing is:
1) Continuation of Labor rule at the State level; and
2) Aberration of Labor Government at the Federal level which will end in the gotterdamerung of a world recession and a renewed Federal Liberal government in 2 years?
ESJ,
I hope so. But I doubt it.
ESJ, It would not only be ironic, but wrong as well.
The “one term Rudd government” is like that song from Sound Of Music
The dog has bitten, the bee has stung, and the Liberals are feeling bad. So they cheer themselves up with this “one term” guff.
The longer they put off reform of their own party arrangements, the longer they will be in Opposition. They’re toying around with the leadership and their policies as if nothing bad has happened (like they’re out of office everywhere in, the country, they’re 10 points behind in the polls, their leader is well below 20% as Preferred Prime Minister, and next week they’re about to come close to a split as the climate change troglodytes take on the slight less troglodytic menyana brigade)… and all they have to do is think of their favourite fairy story.
Then again, the federal government does not seem to be successfully neutering the Liberals like what has been acheived at a state level. The federal Liberals still get media coverage and even land blows on their counterparts.
A-C, now they are so neutered they can’t bother turning up to their own press conferences they call.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/brough-a-no-show-at-media-conference/2008/07/25/1216492709906.html
Diogenoski
your #464 today
Now the other nite you red herringed the super solar grid with suggesting fission nuclar enegy as alternative Earlier today to detail my super solar grid it was ball bearing being droped by terrorists , and later today aliens speed of light enegy
Now nuclar fusion cheked that out , yes minimal meltdown potential compard to nuclar fission reactors , produces no long-term radioactive waste , just mainly helium & nuclar bombs need fission nuclar (already exists) not for nuclar bombs but 20 years away per the international thermonuclar experimental reactor project from cost comapts By that tim asuper solar grid will hav been moved to space ! as a solar satellite grid for poor peoples to use in the world as well & be even more enegy efficent
Next the ball bearings from Mars , the solar defense shield will protect the farms , eveytime we come out front door idealists of lingos will not be governed by terorists Anyway Horatio’s Hornets will guard the skies of super solar grid farms Aliens enegy ? that’s how they go here , with solar power at th speed of light
An existing US scintific super solar plan will supply 74% of ALL US enegy needs , there cost converted to ‘oz’ prorata to populaton is thanks mayo , is 28 billion for 74% of all oz enegy needs (& at 2050 levels !) Now add 10% budgett risk makes 31 billion Sir Kevin and Penny lane may constructively look at this in the official submisions for the White Paper as an add on to ETS , so climb on board realistic solar optimism , the pessimssm of the rodent days ar gone , in disgrace
Frankly, I’m amazed Rudd is still ahead, considering the bad economic situation and a largely hostile/pro Liberal Party media working against him.
It makes you think that if the Liberals had a halfway decent leader, they’d probably be ahead in the polls, not 10 points behind.
Sorry to say the petrol thing is hurting Labor badly, and I’m not sure that Fuelwatch will help them at all!
It’s a bit of a vicious cycle at the moment with the actions of banks being the major component in the rising inflation rate.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/surging-bank-charges-hurting-smes-20080725-3kv8.html
I’d agree with those sentiments Progressive.
The Feds have bet the bank on ETS and our federal bureaucracy has an appalling record on implementing new policy.
A change of leader 12 months out could make the polls very competitive indeed.
“A change of leader 12 months out could make the polls very competitive indeed.”
ESJ are you proposing Tanner or Emerson?
WTF is going on here. Condi on a private visit on the invite of Smithy to Perth. Half of Perth CBD was closed down for her and she met Smithy’s parents and daughter. i think this is taking the intimate relationship with the great satan a bit too far.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24075987-601,00.html
McFarlane and Dutton to attend the Pineapple convention tomorrow.
Steve, I’d say Gillard is the best bet.
Well, the Queensland Liberals will be left with Stevens from Robina and Flegg from Moggill after the dust has settled on the weekend six Liberals have defected to the Pineapple Party.
Finns,
Most Australian politicians get a little excitable at the feet of the Great Satan.
ESJ, i said it before if Rudd dont get you Gillard will. bring it on.
10 Progressive – I disagree with the notion petrol is hurting Labor. I believe that is the one item where people understand that it is not within the governments realm to do anything of any significance. When you constantly hear of world oil prices increasing and the effects it is having on other countries, you don’t need to be a Rhode scholar to come to this realisation.
I ask the question I asked on a previous thread though, did we really believe the last Morgan Poll? This is just in line with the others. I think it is too early to be spooked. Hell, judging by these polls so far if there were an election today, even with all the troubles we’re having, Labor would be returned. Did you really think the polls would remain in the stratosphere?
15 Ruawake, I am stumped as to what will happen to the likes of McFarlane and Dutton if they join the unofficial Pineapple Party.
Will they be welcome in the Party room of the Liberals in Canberra? Or do they just stir up trouble as Pineapple Party members in Brisbane and revert to Liberals in Canberra?
Surely the Draft Constitution of the Pineapple Party isn’t worth the paper it is written on without Federal Liberal Party endorsement.
I want Costello, just to sure up a Labor win next election.
For all of the “Mr Unelectable” pounding Nelson has copped in the media this year, i think it’s actually to his credit that the Liberals federally are still sort-of competitive (although remeber it’s still 55-45 here). I agree he’s hardly a vote-magnet, and could well be levered aside 12 months out from the election, but he must be doing alot of internal stuff to keep the party from completely splintering apart. When you look at the laughable rabble the Liberals are in Qld and WA, you begin to think Nelson is doing something right.
If the Pineapple stuff pans out like it seems to be it will have Federal implications.
There will be no more coaltion in Qld. No more joint Senate ticket. 3 cornered contests. The Libs financial base will be gone.
If you were to write a script on how to damage your brand you could not have imagined a worse scenario than we are seeing in Qld at the moment.
On Morgan does anyone seriously believe that 4% of voters switched from The Greens to the Fibs in a week?
The ALP are getting done on ETS, why would anyone support a scheme that is untested, and a roundabout way of reducing Carbon Emmisions. It would be much better to go straight to the heart of the problem and start spending money on alternative energy and research. The punter would love it and Carbon industry would hate it. Ramp up subsidies on gas conversions etc, again a real saving and more local jobs. Piss off fuel watch, people hate watching things that are painful.
Now to the LIBS, our local lot are a micro-example of the national scene. The local bunch of multi-generational inbreds have not won any election for over 10 years, they get flogged, they can’t even get a grip on the local council, they own a little local rag and all they can do is with incredible bias trot out thier favourites and tell everyone how they will solve the problem. They then get flogged at the next election and they stand around their ‘Mens only club” and either blame each other or the ABC. Pathetic, but the best part is the level of thier own delusion. They are so Boltish, they think they win the debate, even thought they have no grasp on even basic logic, they then convince themselves that they have won. They get flogged again and they simply cannot see that they are completely out of touch. Its quite remarkable.
Re this poll, it is bad for Rudd he needs to step back from the ETS, its a disaster.
Seems there is a vacuum of belief at the heart of Federal Labor.
MDMC
Brenda has engineered the Qld chaos to keep him in the leadership race.
Channel Nine axes Sunday:
http://livenews.com.au/Articles/2008/07/25/Channel_Nine_axes_Sunday_and_Nightline
A masterstroke substituting Brandis for McFarlane, we haven’t seen anything like this since Bold Personality was substituted for Fine Cotton.
#27
Concerned about the mighty talents of Peter Slipper or Andrew Laming challenging for the leadership, perhaps? (or…maybe not)
I doubt anyone could make the Queensland Liberals more of an unelectable joke than they are now
#28
Looks like all the serious political junkies jumped ship to Insiders and all the frothy morning-show brigade bailed to Sunday Sunrise…….
“Re this poll, it is bad for Rudd he needs to step back from the ETS, its a disaster.”
So now you want to give credit to a Morgan Poll. This poll, if you want to give it any credit, suggests Labor still holds a clear advantage. That’s bad for Labor? Hardly.
“I doubt anyone could make the Queensland Liberals more of an unelectable joke than they are now”
30 MDMC, Just watch Springborg in action tomorrow.
“Seems there is a vacuum of belief at the heart of Federal Labor.” Sounds impressive ESJ but what does it mean?
Is there anything they actually believe in GB?
Presumably if they believed in CC & the ETS they’d be selling a cure greater than the limp pain free solution there selling in neo Churchillian tones.
Good call ESJ at 4. The anti-gg has set out the blueprint to make it all come true.
Matthew Franklin who passes for what the anti-gg calls its chief political correspondent has some stern words of advice for the Opposition in today’s edition. To sum up:
1. labour is spinning when it says that there is a split in the opposition on climate change. (If so, today must be a good day for the opposition. I would have thought there is a split inside Nelson, let alone between the the various careerist cliques within the libs. And then again we have the nats, some of whom have gone back to saying what they have been thinking all along, ie that CC is only a silly theory anyway, that the drought is normal but that farmers should be subsidised to survive it, and that those city folk wouldn’t know if their pants were on fire. Well, Matthew, good, insightful Correspondent work. Fancy everyone except the anti-GG being dudded by labour spin on the cohesive state of CC response/ETS policy within the Opposition!)
2. Franklin’s advice is that the opposition should wait and see what the government does and then do something different that is a bit more palatable and get re-elected. Unlike with ESJ, Franklin’s article is irony free. Battle speeches and irony do not mix.
3. Franklin says the Opposition should do a policy fudge because Rudd is ‘terrified’ that that is what the opposition will do.
I would rate Franklin 0/10 for stating the opposition is unified on CC. It ain’t and it is obvious that it ain’t. It is highly likely that the leadership struggle will play out in terms of climate change positions. There are always going to be CC believers and non-believers in the opposition and there will always be sectoral, industry and rural/city tensions within the opposition about appropriate responses. When positions on these tensions become identified with leaders and aspirants, watch out. Those batons will come out a’clickin’ and a’clacking out of the knapsacks.
I would give Franklin 10 out of 10 for populist politics – well done.
I would give him about 0 out of 10 for policy credibility. Good policy process has gone out the window in order to get the 10 out of 10 above – dunce’s cap on that one Franklin, I’m afraid.
I guess the anti-gg really does think we will all be hanrahaned unless we do nothing about climate change.
“Seems there is a vacuum of belief at the heart of Federal Labor.”
GB I think it means that his predicted imminent implosion of NSW Labor has failed to materialise and the Queensland situation is too painful to watch so a strawman has been built as a diversion.
Glad I’m not the only one who thinks like this Finns. It’s more like a date than a diplomatic visit.
Creepy!
LOl steve,
No feel quite pain free thank you.
On NSW, I stand to be corrected – the piping shrike thesis may prove right. But the ultimate logic of that is that the States will stay Labor and the Feds will flip.
Unsworth coming out this week and calling for a new Labor Unity faction suggests however the Labor split in NSW still has a way to goes.
dogb, isnt Condi a les.ian? That’s one of those unknown known’s in Washington.
The lawyers are in the Queensland Supreme Court arguing that the meeting last night was unconstitutional and trying to overturn the decision of the Liberal Party State Council.
Bob Santamaria 25 Says:
July 25th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
“The ALP are getting done on ETS, why would anyone support a scheme that is untested, and a roundabout way of reducing Carbon Emmisions. It would be much better to go straight to the heart of the problem and start spending money on alternative energy and research”
Bob , sir Kevin has comitted to go with ETS , which is a worldwide based economic model solution to carbon reductons Whilst i’m skeptical of ETS , I’m hopeful from the submissions pre the White Paper , that an alternitive enegy infrastructure plan is added on ETS is a difficult elephant to explain & sell to punters
EsJ
Rather not think about that if you don’t mind.
Can anyone explain why Morgan polls are believed to favour Labor? This is often asserted in posts. Is it true, or is it just another self-perpetuating myth? What sort of a pollster deliberately favours one side or the other? Or is it an inadvertent favouring? If so, shouldn’t the methodology be checked? Wouldn’t a pollster of Morgan’s experience check and recheck his methodology, especially when a 60/40 TPP turns up as it did last time? Does anyone (except Morgan) really believe such extreme figures are accurately representative of public opinion when other polls are so different?
A TPP of 55/45 is in line with other recent polls. Possums Pollytics PollyTrack has the Morgan/Neilsen/Newspoll average at 55/45.
The change in Morgan from last week may be significant, but attributing it to anything identifiable (such as the climate change debate) is problematic and probably fanciful. Let’s see what turns up next week.
Apparently six Federal Liberal members claim to have legal advice that if they turn up at the conference tomorrow with 250 delegates they can overturn the decision from last night.
ESJ – you seem to have made up your mind even before the white paper appears. The Green Paper isn’t set in concrete but I’m guessing you knew that anyway.
From the people who produced “Fuelwatch” – it’s really not Profiles in Courage is it?
44 Ad astra – couldn’t agree more.
ESJ – let me see if I can get my head around your reasoning. In your mind Labor have produced a dog in fuelwatch (first brought in by a state Liberal government I believe). So that means whatever other idea they come out with it mustn’t be good. I suppose the Libs have struggled since Workchoices to come up with anything good then. That was a dog. What simplistic thinking.
Ad astra , i find Morgan usualy with a labor bias & newspoll the othr way , try to pretend Gary’s analytical comments are invisible
Amigo FINNS
“FOREIGN Minister Stephen Smith has taken Condoleezza Rice to his daughter’s school and for coffee with his parents in Perth today”
For mine i’m harsh on Smithy , its a disgrace taking the Major of the Repugs around to see yor kid & there school & then have tea with ma & pa , you save that stuff for a like ‘left’ leader like Tony Blair All Condi deserved was tea in th VIP’s cafeteria like any othr non ‘left’ Foreign minister
GB,
No, fuelwatch is indicative of the frame of mind of the government – smoke and mirrors cause no offence etc etc. For those of us from NSW its indicative of Carr style government – all spin and no substance. And yes the approach in one policy area can be predictive in other areas such as the government ETS approach.
Just because a former liberal government did it doesnt mean anything either way a dog is still a dog irrespective if the pooch is black or white.
Thanks Catrina,
Always found Andrew annoying.
ESJ
Why is Fuelwatch a dog?
ruawake cos it wont reduce petrol prices.
Sorry to post off topic, but I was wondering if anybody has an opinion on this image on the Canberra Times
Is Turnbull crying ( I don’t believe it for a second if he is, that it was over latest brouhaha) but it just doesn’t look real to me…did they Photoshop it in?( and for Gods sake if so…why?)
Or am I seeing things?
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/turnbull-falls-into-step-over-ets/1226810.aspx
Ad Astra
Remembering back to last year’s polls, Morgan seems to consistantly poll Labor as around 2% higher than Newspoll or Neilsen, so the bias is real. I doubt it’s deliberate – based on his public comments, I’d surmise that Gary Morgan is a Coalition supporter. It seems to be an artifact of methodology.
One theory that gets thrown around a bit is that Morgan face-to-face polls under-sample rural and regional voters (who are more likely to vote coalition). I can’t recall whether the Morgan phone polls also show the consistent bias.
I study at UWA, live near the airport and have to commute through the CBD to get between the two. So with all the security around for her getting in the way, I’m bit grumpier than usual today. Green light corridor? Feh, she should have to put up with the traffic on Great Eastern Hwy like everyone else has to.
Also, nice to see Stephen Smith has so much faith in the education revolution he sends his kid to a snooty private school. At least he’s better than Downer was…
ESJ
It may allow consumers to make informed decisions as to where they buy petrol and keep the price stable for 24hrs.
Surely this is a good thing?
The only data we have on petrol prices is from Informed Sources and it is in their interest to see Fuelwatch abandoned.
Why did it take a court order from the ACCC to make IS data available? Why are the major oil comapnies against it?
(Her = Condoleeza Rice… I’m a bit slow at posting.
)
Channel 9 axing Sunday: what will Laurie Oakes do for a gig now?
I can’t believe I’m typing this, but maybe it’d be better if Rudd shelves the ETS for now, spends money instead on solar energy/wind power/renewable energy/electric powered cars?
I just fear Nelson is getting too many free hits right now!
ESJ or anyone else, please inform us why Fuelwatch is a dog. You say it won’t reduce prices. Evidence please. How does giving the public information about fuel prices, that is currently available only to oil companies, make it a dog? If it’s a dog why did the WA Liberals and Labor keep it?
Let’s have some evidence-based debate, slogans won’t do.
Ad Astra, GB,
Am I missing something, since when was the former WA Lib government the standard for competent decision making, ie it must be good because the Court Government did it?
Is this a lord of the manor thing to do with the Courts?
There’s no guarantee Fuel Watch will make it through the senate.
It might be better for Labor to either dump it or compromise with the Liberals and amend the scheme.
ESJ – [Thanks Catrina, Always found Andrew annoying] – no, you cannot be serious. My parrot has returned. I let him off at the Simpson Desert few months ago. Amazing, a homing parrot.
Amigo Ronnie, Condi has nothing on our Penny. i think our Labor friends are practising what Mao said to Tricky Dicky that “I like the Rightists, they can do things that the Left can only talk about”.
Progressive
Unless you missed it the Fibs no longer control the Senate.
63 Progressive – this poll has really spooked you hasn’t it? What you are essentially saying is that Labor should abandon some of what it believes in, because it may cost them some votes (although this poll doesn’t necessarily suggest this at all) and only do the “popular” things. If that is your stance by the way, the last poll I saw on the ETS had an overwhelming number of people wanting the government to go ahead with it. Wouldn’t this be plain gutless and wouldn’t it alienate its base?
FuelWatch is OK. It’s not a big deal to me as I don’t drive, but I can see how it’s useful to have the low petrol prices on the TV news. I’m surprised it’s become such a big political issue since the eastern states got hold of it, myself.
Morgan’ss figures are looking more rubbery than the Chicken at a National Party fundraiser.
Fuelwatch will give us drivers the opportunity to find the cheapest fuel in our area, which will be a saving on the day. Unlike it is now when you fill up thinking you have purchased at the cheapest on the day then you drive a kilometer away and find it 2 or 3 cents a litre cheaper. So over all it may not lower the fuel price but will allow us to save at the bowsers which indirectly is a lowering of the fuel price.
Court rules that Liberal meeting in Qld was unconstitutional. Brough et al to pay costs.
That won’t do ESJ. Let’s have some evidence that Fuelwatch is a dog.
A Queensland Supreme Court judge has overturned the result of the Liberal Party Council Meeting last night and ruled the weekend Constitutional Conventions can go ahead.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24074748-952,00.html
So much for Talcum Allbull’s chances at the leadership!
Rudd should NOT abandon the ETS. It is good policy. The problem is that Rudd and Labor have done a poor job of selling it.
I have seen a couple of interviews with Rudd recently, and when asked about the ETS, he goes into too many details. He struggles to communicate the core principles and, worse, fails to inspire the country to fully embrace our leadership position in tackling climate change,which is what we are. We are now acting as leaders but you’d barely know it. Rudd has allowed Nelson to mount an incredibly dishonest scare campaign and as a result has spent way too much time on the defensive rather than the offensive.
After Howard’s stint as PM, a myth surfaced that Australians want boring, management-style leaders rather than those with big vision and inspirational oratory. It’s wrong, dead wrong. Rudd needs someone to pull him aside and tell him he has got to start inspiring the country. So much potential has been wasted with this ETS – it is not a new tax nor is it a cost of living bomb, as the Libs would have us believe. It is a mechanism for getting business to invest more heavily in renewable technology.
Anyway, Rudd is by no means a bad PM, unlike Howard. But we live in times when inspiration is needed. We are seeing it throughout the world with the rapid rise of Barack Obama, and if Rudd can’t get on board, if he behaves too much like the head of the public service rather than a leader, then Labor will struggle. The Libs won’t get in, because they offer nothing better, but Labor will fail to cement its position and therefore keep the Libs well and truly alive and only inches from government.
Hopefully the other pollsters bring it even closer. Go Nelson you good thing!
I agree John
Nelson will go.
So the QLD Liberals are going to have a convention to approve an ‘amalgamation’ with the National Party which will result in a new party that will be both an affiliate of the National Party (of Australia) and a branch of the Liberal Party (of Australia) except that the federal Liberal party have reportedly indicated that they will not accept it as a branch in its proposed form.
Regardless of all that, does anyone care to speculate, or better still offer informed comment on whether or not the ECQ are likely to approve such an arrangement and the registration of a name like Liberal National Party, given that existing parties with the names of the constituent parts currently exist as seperate entities, and one of them may continue to exist as a seperate entit at some level in QLD?
It will all become clearer after tomorrow Geoffrey but there is little doubt that what the conservatives will have achieved is forming three parties out of two. Most likely now we will have a Queensland Liberal National Party, some sort of disgruntled Liberal Party and some style of a disgruntled country party.
Geoffrey
If the takeover of the Qld Libs goes ahead or not, I cannot see that the name will be relevant, they could easily call themselves the Conservative Party and bypass any EC issues.
And another term for Bligh and crew next year I assume.
Another query similar to yours Geoffrey.
http://ambit-gambit.nationalforum.com.au/archives/2008_07_25.html
“And another term for Bligh and crew next year I assume.”
Labor has a huge majority in Qld – it would take a uniform swing of 8% to see the Pineapple party in Government.
The Borg will be opposition leader for a long time.
With all the drama of the past twenty-four hours we are still back to where we were yesterday only worse for the conservatives. It was just a small taste of the confusion that will follow every stage of the process as we proceed on with the marriage of two parties following a blueprint that is riddled with problems.
Anyone else notice the tear in Turnbull’s eye?
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/turnbull-falls-into-step-over-ets/1226810.aspx
Steve: I’m rolling around, laughing my arse off! You can always rely on the conservative parties in QLD to stuff things up! If I was Anna Bligh, I’d be sleeping sound tonight!
Gary: Yes, maybe I’m being a little alarmist! Rudd doesn’t have to shelve an ETS, but maybe it’s not a bad idea to delay its introduction for a few years?
Grog: Now we know for sure the sceptics are running the Liberal Party!
Well Andrew Bolt says it’s the only way, and Andrew Bolt would never be wrong.
You gotta love it – last week it was Nelson who was sat down and told what to say; this week it’s Turnbull.
Next week?
I wonder what Turnball’s constituents in Wentworth think about his change of heart?
How long before Turnbull does a Menzies and creates his own party?
Progressive – I think that aspect (and Turnbull’s own lack of faith in the Bolt view of things) will mean this issue shall continue to fester.
John Quiggin on how to get an ETS through the Senate.
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/07/25/how-to-get-an-ets-through-the-senate/
A COURT has given a Queensland Liberal Party convention the green light to proceed this weekend after ruling the state council had no power to postpone it.
Anti-merger Libs lose court appeal
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24077665-5005962,00.html
Noocat @ 75
Agree totally re Rudd. He’s acting like Australia’s chief bureaucrat rather than its Prime Minister. He is not a leader, he is a manager.
And GG, I just whacked myself in the head pre-emptively so you don’t have to send in the post you were thinking of, I’ve done it for you.
Ronster
You have addressed my nuclear fusion and ball-bearing arguments against the solar grid (how could I forget Horatio’s Hornets!!!) but you have suspiciously declined to rebuff my suggestion for Ruddster to engage the aliens on a diplomatic level. Are you holding back the trump card in the White Paper.
Progressive, I think the problem is actually the opposite. I think people want the ETS to have more teeth than it has. Most average punters would like to think the ETS will actually make a difference, the current version appears a bit wishy washy to me, with to much compensation for the major polluters.
The government needs to make the polluters pay and reward new industry in renewable energy and carbon reducing technology with as much money as they can afford. With a 20 billion surplus that should not be hard.
85
Grog Says:
yep…thoughts?
Ron
Before you get all sceptical with me about the aliens, the Daily Tele has jumped on the bandwagon and they are NEVER wrong. 74% (11,000 on the online poll) agree that aliens existence has been covered up.
24 HOURS after former NASA astronaut and moonwalker Dr Edgar Mitchell stunningly claimed aliens do exist, we can present the video evidence supporting his claim.
Aliens really are here
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24075598-5001021,00.html
It might be an old photo from something out of context. But it appears to be a tear.
Speaking of leaders in trouble, how long do you think Gordon Brown has got? The Labour party lost the Glasgow East by-election with 26% swing to the SNP yesterday. And there has been a host of other by-election losses as well as extremely poor poll results.
Yes Andrew, back in your box!
A revolt in paradise.
Take it easy Progressive, don’t lose faith just yet.
have a squiz at this and if that doesn’t help make you feel a tad better you best get over here and let Aunty Vera give ya a big hug lol.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/climate-change-feed-it-and-weep-or-lead-and-reap/2008/07/24/1216492637218.html
“One of the greatest benefits from the Government’s new initiative will be geopolitical. Australia needs to be at the global negotiating table, not only to defend its national interests but also to help broker the global grand bargain. There is probably no world leader better placed than Kevin Rudd to help intermediate the complex pas de deux that will begin between China and the US next year. Only a solid agreement between the two largest emitters can underpin global actions beyond mere gestures”
I liked the word ‘laggards’ , reckon it could be the new name for merged pineapple conserves. Hmm Liberals – Laggards not much difference when you think about it.
progressive, dont tell me you have turned concern troll?
Progressive @ 61 -
I can’t believe I’m typing this, but maybe it’d be better if Rudd shelves the ETS for now, spends money instead on solar energy/wind power/renewable energy/electric powered cars?
Where will Rudd get the money to spend on solar energy/wind power/renewable energy/electric powered cars without the income from the carbon permits? Increased taxes?
Who will pay for the more expensive renewables electricity if they can get all they want from very dirty brown coal fired stations that can produce it cheaply because don’t have to clean up their mess?
Will you really buy an expensive electric car instead of a cheap petrol one, especially if the only electricity you can get to recharge it with comes from a coal-fired plant?
“I wonder what Turnball’s constituents in Wentworth think about his change of heart?”
Progressive
That may be a worry for Turnbull and perhaps a concern for his leadership aspirations in that the libs may see him as beholden to green and gay interests to keep his seat safe?
ESJ, it would be really good if you went away somewhere cold and quiet for a thousand years and grew up just a little. In 2008 it is offensive that you imagine you can generate some kind of shock-horror response with your cheap jibes:
Pathetic.
Hey, maybe I’ll take the title of concern troll from “Lose The Election Please”?
Sorry all, I’m all over the place tonight! It’s a habit of mine to get spooked by polls. I guess I’m been exposed to too much News Ltd garbage lately.
Actually, Nelson is being totally uncooperative and obstructionist, typical of the Liberal Party in opposition.
Rudd’s got to lead from now on, pretty much do it all himself, and get the Greens/Xenophon/Fielding on board. It’ll be a test of the government’s negotiating skills.
Yeah Apres,
and before you get all self-righteous and sanctimonious you might read the earlier posts – specifically reference to Smith and Rice “dating” by Finns and dogb.
Memo to Apres: Try harder in future.
You just might progressive, there is a vacancy for the role.
Memo to Andrew: They are playing you old son!
What happened to LTEP? I quite enjoyed his ramblings last year!
Where is Glen too? He hasn’t been here for ages.
Glen popped in the other day on the last Morgan 60/40 thread
144
Glen Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 5:40 pm
(From Vienna)
Bull Butter!
I miss Glen, he’s my favourite conservative blogger!
Progressive@111,
Think I spotted a post from Glen in the past few days-from Vienna or somesuch.
ESJ
You really are a very bad man.
Well Diogenes I see YOU have voted with your mousepad!
Where is the fight , Labor leads 55/45 on all 3 polls th MSN are attacking CC but we knew this would happen It will get nastiar wait til the enegy Unions start siding with Big Enegy We have not yet seen the full enemy armada or there scare campaign This is where i hav my belief Sir Kevin & penny lane will hold firm
So the troops shouldn’t weaken here One of th poltcal benefits i’m putting in th super solar grid sub as an add on to ETS , is it offers ‘new century ‘ jobs & set th trap for th Libs to attack solar , then Sir Kev can say we’re solar & the Libs ar defending dirty enegy poluters Every negative is going to be thrown by vested intersts & doubters & Libs , we just be defiant
Didn’t I watch McFarlane on 7.30 report last year,say he was a CC sceptic?
Any chance of a pair of dissenters in the ranks amongst the Liberal Senators on ETS? That is all that is really needed. I dare say the Greens will fall in line after having a sook, so it is only going to take 2 others to come on board.
ron 117; there’s no need for them weaken. If they play their cards right this will win them the next election – if not only because the policy is right, but because they will have the LNP split on it for ther next 3 years.
Classified @ 96
Sorry I didn’t read your post @56 until after I had poted my own re “Turnbull’s tear”
He also seems to have aged a bit the last 6 months.
Turnbull has probably aged due to the HIH court case coming up.
ESJ
Amazon just delivered that Jerrold Post book “Leaders and their followers in a dangerous world: The psychology of political behaviour”.
Dunno if it applies in Oz. I’m not sure whether Rudd counts as a leader or not.
And on a less positive note, my hospital provides yet another nationwide embarrassment for Labor. More than 720 patients received 5% less than their prescribed dose of radiotherapy due to a calibration error. At least now I know why all those patients I referred for radiotherapy didn’t get better. Actually, my lawyers have just asked me to add that point out that the previous statement has no basis in fact, and should not be taken seriously.
Wrong doses of radiation given to patients at Royal Adelaide Hospital
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24076189-5006301,00.html
119 BSF – good question.
Minchin would cut their toes off though wouldn’t he? (and I’m not sure I’m being metaphoric)
Amigo Ronnie, fear not. two more kama sutra positions on CC tonight from that yapping FW Chris Pyne.
btw: how come so many refugees from the Gulag tonight. Jen, please come back. all is forgiven. join you fellow refugees from the Gulag, it must be nice to see some sunlight.
I’m sure Labor can negotiate something with the Greens and Xenophon, but Fielding is a real wild card!
Is there a chance a few moderate Liberals could revolt and defy Nelson?
I wouldn’t count on Turnball, but perhaps there are a couple of others who aren’t sceptics/right wing nutjobs?
Reading Nixon The invincible quest by Conrad Black.
119 BSF
I’m pretty sure Mr X would support an ETS. He is running very strongly on the Murray water crisis and supported Kyoto. I can’t see him wanting to be a spoiler on CC.
Fielding will probably vote no so that’s just one Lib to cross the floor. They need a big whip.
126 Progressive:
but perhaps there are a couple of others who aren’t sceptics/right wing nutjobs?
Small faction that one!
Hockey? errrr… Robb?? (and btw has anyone heard anythign from him in the last 2-3 months?)
Grog
“ron 117; there’s no need for them weaken” thats what i’m saying , CC is Labor policy , we stick with it & Sir Kevin i think will , despite th scare campaign Now if the Libs slinter even better
I can’t recall, is Fielding up for review in 2010? – Will impact on his vote.
ron, I’m with you, I’m wasn’t questioning you – I was doing my best to send signals out to any stray Labor advisor to stay the frickin course!!! (surely they read PB??!)
ESJ
I linked a Cynic site yesterday which rehabilitated Nixon as a World Class Cynic. The line between Cynic and Horrible Bastard gets a bit blurry sometimes.
Richard M. Nixon (1913-94) The real Nixon lies somewhere between the crafty villain the press loved to hate, and the great world statesman of his own hopeful imagination. I say we reposition the 37th president as a lonely, misunderstood cynic. Think about it: he had all the hallmarks. He was an idealistic youth whose formative years were wracked by hardship and tragedy… an intelligent young outsider scorned by Ivy League insiders… a gifted but graceless politician who realized that nothing in this life would be given to him by others — that he’d have to scheme and grovel to snatch the kind of success that his archrival J.F.K. enjoyed almost effortlessly. R.I.P., R.M.N.
Grog: now you mention it, Robb has been very quiet lately!
What about Judi Moylan and Petro Georgiou, or Russell Broadbent? Are Liberals with moderate views on social issues also climate change believers?
Noocat
“Anyway, Rudd is by no means a bad PM, unlike Howard. But we live in times when inspiration is needed. We are seeing it throughout the world with the rapid rise of Barack Obama, and if Rudd can’t get on board ….ETS – it is not a new tax ”
No No No , Kevin 07 believes in CC , ratified kyoto , has a CC blue print out NOW , he is a doer & has proven his commitment , the selling will take time & will be hard , see my #117 BUT we do not need a snake oil salesman wwho has never supported ratifying Kyoto ever either from his mouth or in his written policy documents Inspiration lasts only until the next tTV add , we wanted CC proven committed politicans like Keven07 , not a slippery sweet talking Yankee
what ron said
Noocat “ETS – it is not a new tax ”
yes it is , its a carbon tax , ETS is an economic model for carbon emmissions reduction to discourage dirty enegy usage & make R E more competitive The details ar in th Green Paper
Oh Jeez! I told youse all last year that I bought an electric bike! It folds up to tuck into the back of whatever small car one has, if one needs to. It is not as easy necessarily as the car, but it sure as hell works, though safety on the road is a big call. One takes enormous care. The electric bit enables one to glide, say uphill, at about 30 ks. It is fantastique!
Have to work out what do to do with the hair, helmets you know. Everything is possible.
Albeit, some years ago, on my non electric bike, I carted firewood in the rear basket (whoops, not carbon neutral, to burn in my brother’s fire place) in the raging wind, along the Esplanade.
I wish we could stop grizzling and do something, however slightly uncomfortable. It is rather exhilarating actually.
136 vera – ditto
LEFT the VIP last line out Noocat:
Noocat “ETS – it is not a new tax ”
yes it is , its a carbon tax , ETS is an economic model for carbon emmissions reduction to discourage dirty enegy usage & make R E more competitive The details ar in th Green Paper WE hav to pay for th priveledge of getting rid of Carbon & stoping CC , otherwise our Kids will NOT hav aliveable earth longterm Its a price we all should be happy to pay , even those miserable Libs
And I’m tired of that idiot Greg Hunt whinging about a couple of millionaires who don’t qualify for the solar panel rebate.
Indeed Diogenes R.I.P Milhouse
108
ESJ
I realise that this requires a level of maturity which you have hitherto failed to demonstrate, but can you please refrain from cheap shots about other than hetero relationships. It’s offensive. And tedious.
Gotta whinge about somethin’
Pyne accused Rudd of “destroying” the solar panel industry on Lateline tonight.
A bit of a stretch I would have thought.
a big stretch. Did he mention that one business in Canberra?
Progressive @ # 141 wrote:
That’s the Liberals all over, isn’t it. Pamper the wealthy, and stuff everyone else. This, from 2005, describes how their tax cuts were directed towards polarising incomes:
Ross Gittins, The Age, 9 May 2005
http://www.theage.com.au/news/Ross-Gittins/Howards-battlers-may-not-be-that-loyal/2005/03/08/1110160824800.html
147 Rx, Peter Martin has some good graphs on the Howard years:
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/07/who-did-howard-years-help.html
Yeah, well, Scorp. Stretch, it is true. Didn’t see Lateline, but a sure target to beat the guv about. I, for one, don’t get it.
The Finnigans 125Says:
July 25th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
“Amigo Ronnie, fear not. two more kama sutra positions on CC tonight from that yapping FW Chris Pyne.”
Amigo my sense is Fielding will vote no & thats a Senate deadlock Mr X is a water man & th greens will posturre , but there principals means they’ll vote yes So there must be some weak Senate libs ? Maybe thse 2 q’lders now with no party after tomorrow
Thanks Grog. Clear which income percentile did best out of Rattus and co.
Old saying, “If you’re not rich you cannot afford to vote Liberal.”
Sens X and Fielding seem to cancel each other out. The former said to be politically somewhere between the Greens and Labor; Fielding somewhere around the Liberals at the loopy right.
I think Senator X is somewhere between Labor and a Liberal Democrat. He makes a bit deal about the Murray because it is an important issue for S.A.
Fielding is Labor Left on economic issues, and Liberal Right on social issues.
Rx; It almost makes you wish for Harradine. (now I know I’ve stayed up too late)
Grog 154 LOL, too late-night I think; that’s nightmare stuff!
ShowsOn, if Fielding is Labor Left on economic issues, wouldn’t that put him in favour of an ETS?
Mmmm, Grog. As far as I am concerned, Nick X is likely to be “our Harradine”. You may be up late, but not as late as Nick would be.
123 Diogenes – “And on a less positive note, my hospital provides yet another nationwide embarrassment for Labor. More than 720 patients received 5% less than their prescribed dose of radiotherapy due to a calibration error.”
Yep, those bloody politicians never give the right doses to their patients do they?
Something strange has happened to the numbers being quoted on the way to todays convention. Either the Curious Snail has added up wrong, they have been given the wrong numbers or something fishy is going on.
Even though it is conservative politics in Queensland which means that nothing is to be accepted as gospel without being verified by the Supreme court, it is just difficult to see how the party with claims of a membership of over 120 for each and every one of the 89 electorates has less delegates than the Liberal Party.
Looks like the bulls, horses, sheeps and goats that make up the bulk of the National Party’s membership list have not been fairly represented at conference. I hope that somewhere in the merger process the supreme court does get to verify just what the membership of the Queensland National Party really is.
“Justice Glen Martin cleared the way for 450 Liberal Party delegates and 430 National Party delegates to vote on whether to form a single conservative party in Queensland.”
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24078599-952,00.html
The reason I query the membership number is because the Nationals have plucked the figure of 10 000 members out of the air for the past thirty years and the Courier Mail has transcribed that figure without question.
10 000 did not vote in the plebiscites. It was nearer to 6 000. It is not possible for the Nationals to have roughly 110 members for every single electorate in the 89 seat parliament.
Even the ALP would not have 110 members in each and every branch in Queensland.
If by some twist of mathematics they do have 10 000 members why do they not have double the delegates of the Liberals at the conferences?
Might be time to begin drawing those Queensland electorate maps William.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24078460-5006786,00.html
156 CW – Yep X will definately be to SA what Harradine was for Tassie – expect a few government funded programs to start dotting up around country SA.
Gary Bruce @ 157
Actually the doctors were prescribing the right dose of radiotherapy, the machine was delivering the wrong doses (there is a Medical Physics department at the RAH which must be feeling uncomfortable).
What SA Labor did was to cover it up for two years without telling patients, presumably in the hope no-one would find out. Someone made a complaint last week about the cover-up and only then did they decide it couldn’t be covered up. My bet is that the complainee was a doctor pi$$ed off by the very bitter wages negotiations. A 720 patient class action may be the result.
Diogenes,
Any views on the management of Health SA?
Diogenoski & ESJ
Digenoski
#123
“Ronster
You have addressed my nuclear fusion and ball-bearing arguments against the SOLAR GRID (how could I forget Horatio’s Hornets!!!) but you have suspiciously declined to rebuff my suggestion for Ruddster to engage the aliens on a diplomatic level. Are you holding back the trump card in the White Paper”
So after my delving into the technology of nuclar fission vs nuclar fussion , and thens the ball bearing throwing terrorists attacking my super solar grid farms , i’m forsed to now chek out aliens Well Diogenoski thank goodness i’m now dealing with something tangable Actualy CO2 created Aliens , and Keven07 is being very charitable not engaging them for now , as Aliens are the only friends Brendan has left
ESJ
after talking about all these aliens having love struck pictures of Brendan in there napsacks , am hestitant to bring this up , but you hav introduced new blog technology as you had 2 conversatons here last nite here to posters not here invisible to me , even with the solar glasses on
It is not likely to have any material effect. Up to 5% less, just means the patients were getting at least 95% of what was require. With variations in body size, density and abosration rates, the prescribed dose could easily be that far off being wrong. It is like being told to drink 10 glasses of water and only getting 9 and a half.
A class action will get laughed out of court and cost will be awarded against the complainants.
The Liberals have had their vote and are now in a position to merge with the Queensland Nationals.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/26/2315268.htm?section=justin
Mal Brough is not happy.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24080605-5003402,00.html
ron @164 ‘ESJ…you had 2 conversatons here last nite here to posters not here invisible to me’
When the 2 bar radiator & damp pajamas call, I suspect the pekinese posts; what’s your excuse?
BSF surely the deceased estate could claim a 5% rebate?
It is nuclear medinice. There is always a margin of error of a couple of percent.
I had a look at th link on electoral voting methods used in Q’ld and introduced/used variously for polical advantage It indicated Beattie a few electons ago under the ‘Optional Pref’ method , decided to limit th pref flow of Libs to Nats and vice versa , by advocating to voters effectiveley to use the “first past th post” voting systsem , and enough did to hurt th Libs & Nats prefs flowing to each othr at a greater number than greens prefs
It seems with th Libs /Nats ‘merger’ takeover , the Libs/Nats will now benefit from the optional pref systsem being effectively used as a ‘first past th post’ method , because the greens prefs become the large “lost” pref pool , and presume Labor would now again look at a compulsory full pref voting Bill
It would defeat much of the purpose behind the merger Ron. Perhaps the Coalition will then deamalgamate next year. Deamalgamation does happen to be what Shadow Local Government Minister Hobbs advocates for local councils.
Forgive my ignorance, but why is Mal Brough not happy with this merger thing?
BSF
Aren’t the effects of radiotherapy non-linear? That could make the 5% drop in treatment fractions cumulative rather than proportional. Couldn’t it be a bit like 28 episodes of compound interest with populations of malignant cells not coming out of their dormant phase into their growth phase when they would be responsive?
171
classified, Brough is the Messiah out to change the world and the locals just don’t appreciate his talents. Nor will they vote him in as Big Chief Pineapple.
To all the Rudd fans who brook no criticism … the man is decent bloke. A conservative Churchgoing Chrisitan who does a good job as a beauraucrat. He is also light years ahead of the libs ..But, boring as Buggery. And this is a time to get the nation on board- all sides of politics in fact, to unite to make some difficult, costly and painful changes that also create new opportunity.
I don’t think he can do it. Sadly.
Viva la pineapple!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24080614-2,00.html
Tom.
Jen,
A bit like Gilligans Island, eh.
The vote for Big Chief Pineapple is currently being taken. McIvor is expected to win convincingly especially with 600 former Nats and 400 former Libs being present.
172 – Normally the measurement is something like 100% + a margin of 3%. As the report states up to 5% less instead of the possible normal 3% less, that would suggest that it would be calibrated at 98% of what should have been given which when dealing. A very small margin and it is very unlikely to have made any significant different.
The Nuclear Medicine Unit knew this and this why it was sat on it for two years. They also knew that if it got out it would cause undue stress to very sick people because of people misunderstanding what it meant.
Meanwhile, in Never Never Land, Peter “Pan” Costello continues to agitate for the leadership he didn’t want.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24078175-662,00.html
Not sure what you mean Grinch- the Conservative Christian bit???
Nor do I quite get the animosity going on- one site is about the US election and one is about OZ politcs. As for personal likes/dislkes… they’re personal.
So, Bruffy the Evil Slayer is having difficulty transferring his Indigenous management skills to careerist tories and they won’t play along now? Lol.
Hope they give it to Cossie and wipe out the whole party in one go at the next election
Boerwar, he might just be stuck in his shop a little longer as his hopes of being a State superstar seem slim and he will have to wait for a Federal Election to regain fame.
hahahaha
Thanks, that sound’s right and was funny aswell
If these people are smart they would actually vote Spence in as Big Chief Pineapple and sidestep the problem of the Federal Liberal Executive. We will soon see how switched on they are.
Because the merger doesn’t include a provision to make him both Premier of Queensland and Prime Minister of Australia.
Has there ever been a more self centred politician who doesn’t actually hold any publicly elected office?
The hilarious thing is that apparently the NSW Liberals are willing to pre-select him to a safe seat
“Mr Brough said he didn’t know what his political future held.
“There’s absolutely a career in politics if I want it, becuse that has been made very clear to me by my colleagues down south,” he said.”
Because he won’t be joining the LNP
“He said he did not know what his political future held.
“I will not be joining the LNP,” Mr Brough said.”
Jen,
I’ll brook as much criticism of Rudd as you and your turgid Greens can muster. Every time you whackos call him boring, safe, unimposing, uninspiring etc. I consider it fantastic advertising for Rudd and his Government and actually I believe it consolidates his postion within the broader community. So, thank you for your support.
Did you know that this was the same ploy Toyota have used to sell their Carolla range of cars for years and it is the best seller in its class?
However, I don’t think the same works for your Gilligans Island. But I suppose you can now run away over there and you and your friends can blow raspberries with impugniity like the cowards you are.
Jebus GG, that’s a bit harsh isn’t it?
Wow Growler! – not sure what I did to deserve that spray – hope you feel better now.
turgid/whackos/cowards…
love you too,cupcake
Maybe we ‘re meant to be together GG….
Jen 190, innuendos when it suits eh?
You really have no shame.
This year the Corolla is set to outsell the Commodore, making it the biggest selling car in ANY class.
Jen, when you say you don’t think Rudd “can do it”… Does this mean you think he will lose next election?
Nuh Classified. Just think we will be so far behind as a nation to address CC that we’ll still be talking about what kind of lightbulbs we should use (Turnbull was great wasn’t he??) instead of investing in the serious restructuring of the energy industry and environmental sustainability that is crucial.
Personally I think the Libs are so irrelevant that, as boring as Rudd is, he is unbeatable. No opposition.
Give me a boring old workhorse rather than a flashy show pony anyday.
Eddy- I am having a conversation with Growler, not you. (But you are correct – no shame).
vera- what about a better option.-Like someione who means what they says, has some vision and can bring the electrate on board?
It seems you want a revolution rather than incrementalism.
you got it showson – no time to waste!
Jen, what makes you so sure that Yes we Can means what he says?
And are you suggesting that our Kev doesn’t?
vera- I’m not talking about the US election -( but interesting that you made the analogy.;) )I am talking about needing some inspired leadership right here at home. As for whether or not Kevin means what he says- I think he does. He just says it in such a boring way that I don’t listen . (God. I miss Keating!!)
GG 187
As someone who drives an 89 Corolla and looking to upgrade, I’m feeling drawn to a more recent Corolla (or maybe a Yaris). I’m obviously not a “car person” and I can’t explain my reasoning for getting another Corolla.
It appears that Toyota strategy is working on me. What exactly are Toyota doing and how does it work?
snap Diogs! – 1989 Corolla.
have you seen the new Ascent??
btw- why aren’t you driving a Beemer- you’re a surgeon!
Jen fair enough, I myself enjoy watching and listening to Kev, nice to see a smiling face for a change.
At least we agree on one thing I miss PK (and his sarcasm) too.
vera- I think Kevin is honestly a nice bloke – just a bit dull for my taste.
There will never be another PJK – at least not for another generation or so!
OMG ESJ!!! I agree with you….
I have to go and lie down.
Most people come to realise eventually that I am right Jen.
“Most people come to realise eventually that I am right Jen.”
Agree there ESJ, I’ve never seen you as of the left.
hmmm… slight over-reaction there Eddy. Mutual admiration for PJK is as far as I’m prepared to go.
Still , it’s an improvement.
Yeah the things Keating did 83 – 96 puts into perspective the do nothing Howard government. OK I give them the GST – which increased the tax code five fold – and they tried to de-regulate industrial relations by adding more regulation to it, but other than that they did nothing compared to the Hawke and Keating governments.
If your patient Jen I’d be prepared to explain to you why the Australian Greens are bad for the peace order and good government of the realm as well!
There you go Eddy- back to the bench.
ShowsOn 212,
Yup agreed.
Jen214, blind faith you cant beat it i guess.
or supprting a party that reflects your own opinions-. you know- , democracy.
Pineapple Party a ’sham’ marriage according to the Treasurer.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24080906-5003402,00.html
steve- doesn’t it just make them an easier target?
That’s why I say their problems will begin on the next election night,Jen. Their supporters are convinced that once they merge they win but there is a small problem of an extra twenty seats to be won while retaining what they have.
I hope they are enjoying the champagne today because the preselection process is going to be a nightmare for them now.
ESJ,
Good to see you around. I must compliment you on your attempts to turn “sows ears into silk purses” last night. The effects of Beer O’Clock were far more pronounced in some of the responses. Labor 55-45 is the sort of disastrous result I would take every day of the week and is hardly indicative of long term trouble for the “excitement” machine that is team Rudd.
Fuel Watch has been superb politics imho. The issues associated with fuel is that it is a reluctant purchase. (No one enjoys queing up and forking over $100 of hard earned every week for something you never see and disappears far too quickly). However, the rapid increase in petrol prices which you, The Labor Party, most of the Community and even the MSM understnd is due to World prices and totally out of the control of the Rudd Government. Of course knowing and understanding about it doesn’t stop the punters being peeved about it and coming on top of increased interest rates and increased food prices leads to a degree of angst among the voters.
The other big bitch with petrol is of course, that the price can fluctuate by 10-15 cents during the day. Which means that you fork out $10-15 because you didn’t fill up in the morning. People feel that they are being got at by the treacherous Oil Company cartel.
Enter Fuel Watch. As a free marketer I would have thought a Government Watchdog that has no effect in the market place is the perfect beast. Possum analysed Fuel Watch in WA and says that overall it has no effect on pricing. However, politically, the Government is seen to be doing something, the cycles seem to have been extended and the fact that the Oil Companies have to post their prices a day in advance is seen as a controlling mechanism. So over all it is the “chicken soup” solution for the Government. It may not do any good, but it certainly doesn’t hurt.
In the meantime I notice that crude prices are dropping and pump prices will be below $1.50 next week. The tax cuts have come in to force and low paid workers have just copped a $20 increase. Interest rates seem to have peaked and it is likely they will start dropping by early in 2009.
None of the above leads me to conclude that Labor is in any real trouble. I suspect there may even be a DD towards the end of next year. The issue, CC and the ETS.
Well they voted in McIver as Big Chief Pineapple so it is obvious that the Palmer franchise comes before any innovation. I have my doubts whether Queenslanders will endorse the Palmer franchise as warmly as the conservative parties do.
Surely a contest in QLD is not a bad thing Steve?
Tell us which extra twenty seats the Pineapple Party are going to win ESJ? Then I might consider there will be a contest.
ESJ,
Good to see you around. I must compliment you on your attempts to turn “sows ears into silk purses” last night. The effects of Beer O’Clock were far more pronounced in some of the responses. Labor 55-45 is the sort of disastrous result I would take every day of the week and is hardly indicative of long term trouble for the “excitement” machine that is team Rudd.
Fuel Watch has been superb politics imho. The issues associated with fuel is that it is a reluctant purchase. (No one enjoys queing up and forking over $100 of hard earned every week for something you never see and disappears far too quickly). However, the rapid increase in petrol prices which you, The Labor Party, most of the Community and even the MSM understnd is due to World prices and totally out of the control of the Rudd Government. Of course knowing and understanding about it doesn’t stop the punters being peeved about it and coming on top of increased interest rates and increased food prices leads to a degree of angst among the voters.
The other big complaint with petrol is of course, that the price can fluctuate by 10-15 cents during the day. Which means that you fork out $10-15 because you didn’t fill up in the morning. People feel that they are being got at by the treacherous Oil Company cartel.
Enter Fuel Watch. As a free marketer I would have thought a Government Watchdog that has no effect in the market place is the perfect beast. Possum analysed Fuel Watch in WA and says that overall it has no effect on pricing. However, politically, the Government is seen to be doing something, the cycles seem to have been extended and the fact that the Oil Companies have to post their prices a day in advance is seen as a controlling mechanism. So over all it is the “chicken soup” solution for the Government. It may not do any good, but it certainly doesn’t hurt.
In the meantime I notice that crude prices are dropping and pump prices will be below $1.50 next week. The tax cuts have come in to force and low paid workers have just copped a $20 increase. Interest rates seem to have peaked and it is likely they will start dropping by early in 2009.
None of the above leads me to conclude that Labor is in any real trouble. I suspect there may even be a DD towards the end of next year. The issue, CC and the ETS.
William
Obviously this is big news in the US blogging community but could you be “sued” by a Government department here for our names if we were critical of them. I suppose it depends on exactly what was said.
Police director sues for critical bloggers’ names
http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2008/jul/22/police-director-sues-find-identity-blogger-critica/
Growler at 187
It may cheer you up a bit to know that your horse in the primaries at least won something. She got the prize for the most photogenic.
That should make you happy.
http://osm.net/external/gaffhook.jpg
Steve,
I dont nearly enough about QLD to comment on your state election, my point was if there is a contest rather than a walkover it must be a good thing. Presumably doing something new may add to that.
I know this is off-topic, but has anyone here pruned the trees out the front and NOT been told off by the wife for taking far too much?
According to my wife I’ve:
1. Destroyed our privacy
2. Condemned the agapanthas to death because now the sun will shine through on them in summer.
3. Massacred a perfectly good Whata-Whata tree (don’t know exactly what it is).
4. Demonstrated that I’m a typical male. How does she know this? I got a tool in my hand and turned into a wanker.
Her son was like I am, apparently, and her father, and her first husband. I know my mother nearly stabbed my own father when he lopped too much off the jacaranda at Strathfield when I was a kid. The Council guys who trim trees for the electric wires are just vandals (according to my wife). And the LAST person I should have asked for advice was THAT IDIOT across the street, because what does HE ever do besides permanently renovate his poxy house and drive us all batty on the weekends with his hammer drill and his power saw going 12 hours a day? And does ANYONE really know what he’s been building for the past 8 years?
In the face of that I could not but agree with her assessment, and promised never to do it again.
But what I wanted to know is: am I alone in this, or do other couples have the same argument?
GG,
All things being equal, federal labor should be returned with a comfortable majority.
However as you identify correctly:
1) State of the economy is a key ingredient, after all what was the last one term Labor Government, Scullin I believe?
2) ETS – The bureacracy could kill the government. The last 2 things government introduced GST and WorkChoices were both turkeys.
I don’t consider picking up one or two seats as creating a contest and obviously nor does Springborg or anybody else because they just will not nominate the seats they are going to win. Just a wild assertion that they will win because they now have merged. Who are they going to blame for the next loss now the Liberals can’t be blamed?
BB
I remember my mother smashing my fathers beloved “trannie” from the verandah when she saw what he’d pruned off her favourite tree.
Try reminding your wife of the story about the Japanese gardener who had the most beautiful garden in the land, with perfectly manicured trees and bushes always in flower. When he was asked what his secret was, he simply showed the questioner his pair of secateurs.
gaffhook – I’m speechless.
from laughing.
BB-
I’m on her side…seem safer that way.
Jen 232 -
See Jen, that comment sums up your essential hypocrisy. If gaffhook’s post had been by someone you didnt agree with politically you would have been the first to scream s.xism.
Now Robert Menzie’s decades old dream has been realised. He always wanted to see a Pineapple Party formed but died a few years short of his ambition coming to fruition. Thank God that Palmer and Springborg have been able to make dreams come true.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/menzies-dream-is-fulfilled/2008/07/26/1216492791987.html
“Who are they going to blame for the next loss now the Liberals can’t be blamed?”
steve.
Mal Brough.
E St J #229 why is the GST a turkey?
BB
We got a great big old Iron Bark about 3 ft from the garage side of the house. A couple of years ago in a big storm a branch came down missing the house by an inch. We spend all our time sweeping up it’s leaves or scooping them out of the pool and one day if we get a lot of rain followed by an extra strong westery we might see it or part of it demolish half our house!
Hubby arranged for the tree fellers to come cut it down recently but at the last minute I couldn’t let him do it so made him ring and cancel the chop.
I just felt so sorry for it and besides where would the possums sit to eat their bread and jam of a night.
You’re right Eddy. I’m such a prude usually.
and no SOH either.
and Gaffhook, you are a naughty naughty boy. don’t you ever use rude words about Hillary again.
Do you really think the world is headed for The Great Depression 2.0?
If the economy slows too quickly, the RBA will just start cutting interest rates. Our economy is still growing at 3% which is far better than most countries, including the 0.6% that the idiotic economic policies of the Bush administration has achieved.
Here’s an economist’s idea of how to push coal further down the merit order for electricity generation.
http://economics.com.au/?p=1662
“This merger will significantly enhance the prospects of the new Liberal National party of Queensland presenting an effective alternative for Queensland voters and strengthen our prospects for the defeat of the Bligh Government,” Dr Nelson said.
Er Brenda how will it do this? Instead of having the Libs appeal to Brisbane and SE Qld voters and the Nats appealing to the regions they will now have to have one policy for all.
It looks like terrorism might be an issue during the Olympics. I didn’t even know China had a separatist Muslim group.
A separatist group has warned of fresh attacks in China during the Beijing Olympics and taken credit for a May bus bombing in Shanghai.
“Through this blessed jihad in Yunnan this time, the Turkestan Islamic Party warns China one more time,” Seyfullah says in a video statement dated July 23, according to a transcript from the Washington-based Intel Center.
“Our aim is to target the most critical points related to the Olympics. We will try to attack Chinese central cities severely using the tactics that have never been employed,” he continues.
Terrorists target Olympics
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24080980-5006301,00.html
What is the biggest gripe in country areas? Answer:That politicians are too city specific and they forget about the regions, especially small regions (population wise).
Where will the LNP policies be city or country specific?
So how does this single party appeal to the country areas and the city areas?
So many questions to resolved.
Maybe the Country ALP may get a good foot hold in some areas.
242 I’m sure the gap will be filled by independent Liberals and Independent Nationals who may well cut deeply into the amount of seats that were held by the Libs and Nats until this morning. Funny but true. There are heaps of redundant councillors out there who would fill the role perfectly.
Steve: I can hardly contain my excitement, I’ll have to go out tonight and have a few celebratory drinks!
Will Brough play wrecker? I hope so!
And why the hell would people in Brisbane and SE QLD vote for that hick Springborg?
A good opinion piece from Lenore Taylor in today’s Australian:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24078374-7583,00.html
It is a good piece Prog:
Two points of interst:
“It also starts to shed some harsh daylight on the idea gaining currency in the dark backrooms of the federal Opposition that the emissions trading scheme is a political gift and a good old scare campaign against it an easy way to deal the Coalition back into contention at the next election. “…
But (and this is what they have forgotten):
“…all the published polls show that climate change is a problem the overwhelming majority of Australians are concerned about and want their Government to act on, and that they are more worried about the environmental consequences than the short-term economic costs.
I can’t recall any similar groundswell of deep popular concern in 1992 about Australia’s lack of a broad-based consumption tax.”
Which is why I guess Bolt et al are trying to scare up some concern.
Progressive, there is nothing progressive about you. you should call yourself regressive. do you always shoot first and then ask question later ala Dubya. at least the harsh mistress has the good sense of whacking you behind your ear.
246 Prog; Will Brough play wrecker?
Does this answer your question?
Former federal minister Mal Brough has warned other states to “think carefully” before following Queensland’s lead in merging the Liberal and National parties.
“[The Liberal] party will cease to exist in about three months’ time if the federal party grants its approval and changes the constitution and ratifies it,” he said.
“I will continue to be the Liberal Party president today and tomorrow and until such time as that occurs … I will not be joining the LNP.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/26/2315350.htm
Finns
What’s all this about Muslim separatists in Yunnan? Is it a goer?
Diog, i am talking about a man is innocent until he is proving guilty, especially in Singapore where things can be just as murky as the haze that is drifted across from Indonesia where there are more Muslim separatists than in Yunnan.
So what happens to the federal Queensland Liberals and Nationals? If they join the LNP does mean they are able to sit in both party rooms? I can’t see the other Liberals being happy with that as seems it a case of double dipping.
Or are they going to form a LNP level party room? In which case a Liberal would be the leader as they would have 10 to 3 advantage.
Or are they going to remain members of their respective parties at Federal level? How do they organise their federal campaign then?
The middle case is probably the only one that would work and is the less likely to adopted.
Dio @243 & 251
First seen pre Xmas 06 training with you know who doing you now what on the you know where site. Yes.
BSF – the Xmas party should be fun.
codger – hello???
codger
It looks like an Aussie has advised China of the terrorist threat of ETIM. It must be one of the few times you don’t want to be proven right.
Last month, Australian security expert Neil Fergus –- former director of intelligence at the Sydney 2000 Games, Fergus has also worked as a consultant at the Salt Lake City and Athens Games, as well as in China for this year’s Olympics — warned that the main threat faced by the Olympics comes from the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM).
“There are over 100 members of ETIM that were trained by al Qaeda in Afghanistan prior to the invasion of Afghanistan, so there is no question about the links. The links are very strong,” said Fergus.
Jen
Here is a link to the info codger was referring to from the Council on Foreign Relations.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/9179/east_turkestan_islamic_movement_etim.html
Freedom for the Uighurs.
Thanks Diogenes-
so having read that, how real is the threat IYHO?
ESJ, the Uighurs were beaten and conquered by the Chinese some one thousand years ago. methinks it’s a bit too late now.
Does time ratify a conquest Finns?
ESJ,
Depends who writes the history.
quite GG.
If the LNP did form a partyroom in Canberra, it would be the second biggest party in coalition, with Nats only having 5 (or 4 depending on Lyne byelection).
I meant 7 (or 6). Forget Victoria.
ESI, what about Hawaii, that is more recent.
Any chance Mal Brough could join the ALP?
If we’re going to start re-visiting conquests of 1000 years ago, then maybe it’s time for the Anglo-Saxons to rise up against the Normans.
Progressive,
Maybe – he’d fit in ok I suspect
Progressive @ 268 – Yeah, about the same as JWH’s. None and Buckleys!
I was joking at 270, by the way
Dunno Jen. My limited understanding of analysing how serious terrorist threats are is that the best predictor is how many “successful” attacks the group has to its “credit”. ETIM have managed FIVE in the last two months so they appear pretty determined.
Finns et al
According to the CRF, the Uighurs are alive and well.
Who are the Uighurs?
The Uighurs (pronounced WEE-guhrs) are an ethnic minority group numbering about 8 million. Their ethnicity, language, and culture is more similar to the Turkic peoples of neighboring Central Asian republics. Although the ETIM seeks to establish an independent Islamic regime, the majority of Uighurs are Sunni and do not support an Islamic state.
Dyno, what about we all pack up and leave. Return this place to the rightful original owners.
Unscrambling an egg being such a simple thing to do, Finns …
Finns,
They haven’t got any use for it. They’re all dead.
Dyno, unless it is the chinese foo-yoong combination omelette. they’ve been asked to unscramble them all the time
Condi has backed Helen Clark’s call for China not to use the terrorist threat to stifle dissent. I’d be interested to hear what Smith and Rudd say if asked.
The chief US diplomat, when questioned about how China dealt with security issues, said “of course security threats have to be dealt with… but security should not become a cover to deal with dissent.”
She was echoing comments by her New Zealand host Prime Minister Helen Clark, who said any protests in China “need to be dealt with proportionately and with the due restraint.”
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jKXDnhZA-E21L8KnSGpbhS4badkg
The chief US diplomat, when questioned about how China dealt with security issues, said “of course security threats have to be dealt with… but security should not become a cover to deal with dissent.”
Oh, the irony.
BB@229,
Oh, to get him indoors to pick up a pair of secateurs!
How does she do it,BB?
I have some trees which I prune heavily every year and it repays me in lush foliage where I need it, though admittedly they don’t affect privacy for long.
But no amount of pleading ,cajoling has any effect on the MATH (man about the house),he being of the laissez-faire gardening variety.
Even organised for professional pruners to trim trees to protect current water views only to have him somehow manage to dismiss them before they could do their task!
Covert guerilla tactics in the horticultural sphere, irreconcilable mindsets…a fact of life.
Do love my trees,shade,etc., but believe they live much longer if pruned properly.
However,suspect in your case,it is a matter of degree…..how much is too much?
Welcome back Megan,
Life got too boring and hard on the island. I recommend you read about the New Australia movement at the turn of the last century, you may find it interesting.
1) The Welsh are still fighting (Kind of) for independance from the british fascist?
2) Re the USA comment about China. Is it irony or blinding hypocracy?
3) Re Qld, LOL does it ever strike them that its not all about them.
4) Public Notice today. This is a line of thought that even the Great Bolt hasn’t thought of. I Quote. “The world produces 32 billion gallons of oil per day mostly from under the sea, take out oil in flows water sea levels are dropping you are bing conned” Exact spelling, OMG.
I’m not a Rugby Union person, but it was nice to see our boys kick Kiwi arse tonight!
So I’m away for a day and see some supporters of a do nothing Yankee used car salesman (who has NEVER supported Kyoto ratificaction ) come here & have the foolish gall to critisise Sir Kevin who has the courage to tackle CC , calling him boring
Its one thing to post in fantasy island about US politcs which is “TV packaged politicans” & where politcs is typically US false plastic perception BUT if you come here to this site remember this is ‘oz’ land And in ‘oz’ we judge ‘oz’ politicans on ‘oz’ values of substanse thank you very much not bullsh.t US virtual reality values of ‘god bless America’ pretty oratory words
Such jugheads would logicaly vote for a inspiring speaking Liberal John Howard type if he spoke pretty inspirational words , even if he had no substanse The inspiration lasts only as long as the 30 second TV add lasts , which obviously equals the jugheads attention span
Megan @ 280:
Well, there was this Ozito power demolition saw on special at Bunnings, and the tree branches were scratching my car as I backed out of the garage…
After my #284 above , next one speaks to those “left” ‘oz’ posters who are NOT infected by th US plastic pretty words virus of trying to compare Sir Kevin to a snake oil salsman & seek more boldness Yous guys already know Sir Kevin is CC committed , he does hav substanse and he is a doer , but perhaps yous may hav wished Kevin07 had abit of Paul Keating in him as well
Well Parlament was great for us when the Armani kid was in full flight , he would hav fixed up that slick oiliness Yankee in 10 seconds , and shown him to be as empty in policy substanse as he made Hewson & Dolly However the times & th challenges are diferent today , because in reality ETS is a new tax , its a carbon tax on all business & all voters with NO full $ offset Its a $ pain to all sectors in th economy & we don’t want the economy st.ffed & producing high unemployemnt Hence the beaucrat approach is needed A ‘process’ pollie like Sir Kevin suits the CC times
Its frustrating , the anti CC-er’s ar attacking , and we gotta wait months for the Green Paper submissions to be received & assessed , and put up with the witch craft of ‘Andrew Bolt’ scares Personaly i’d prefered some boldness of my solar farm out there now , and am abit skeptical ETS itself is a full CC cure BUT there are the politcal & econ challenges above to consider as well Therefore I’m NOT throwing out the bath water of th committed CC da man Kevin07 who may be a Nerd but acts not talks pretty , in favor of either the anti CC Horatio clan or a slippery empty worded no substanse Yankee doodler , finishing each speech with ‘ I love America’
Margo Kingston hopes that all the former Liberal and National Senators had health checks before signing up as Pineapple Party members.
http://webdiary.com.au/cms/?q=node/2444
I fail to see why Swan doesn’t get APRA to force all the banks to explain just what their exposure to the subprime mortgage fiasco is and why they told us while Costello was Treasurer that the exposure was either non existant or negligible. Clearly it has been significant and worsening.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24078729-643,00.html
#287 – Steve, that piece on Webdiary is from one of the contributors [Submitted by Malcolm B Duncan on July 26, 2008 - 5:51pm.] – not Margo. She has not been written for Webdiary for a while now.
Malcolm makes an interesting point though that [If a casual vacancy arises by reason of the death resignation or other disqualification of any sitting National or Liberal Queensland Senator, it effectively means the Labor [sic] Executive in Queensland gets to appoint whoever it likes.]
That’s true Finns but this laptop is very sensitive and sometimes sends before I’d like it to. Sorry for being too quick on the draw to check properly.
The Mad Monk (on meet the press) says he wants to “quaranteen” 50% of all welfare payments for all people who get the majority of their income from welfare payments.
Will pensioners and carers cop this – will they protest?
ruawake that is what is happening in the trials in four Cape York communities at present. It is Noel Pearson’s favourite theory.
ruawake @ 291 – There wouldn’t even be a whimper. After all they swallowed whatever scraps Howard and Costello gave them without complaint for 12 years and continued to vote for them in record numbers. They only start getting their gear off when Labor is in power.
steve @ 288,
The banks (largely) didn’t even know about their exposure when Howard was in, and they still don’t know what it is now (though at least they’ve noticed it exists). So Swan can demand all the information he wants but it probably won’t help.
My experience in the risk business (20 years’ worth) is that when you don’t understand the risk you are underwriting, it’s normally higher than you think (though in good times you can be lucky and get away with it).
291
Abbott attacking welfare receiving minorities?
It’s always worked in the past.
Some things never change.
Just turned off Insiders when your shout came on and the first comment was about the Gov not controlling prices after 7 thats right 7 months! Plueeeeese! This was after the vacuous Greg Hunt said nothing except China India USA for 10 minutes. The Insiders would have to be the biggest joke of a political programme on TV.
“Insiders” can be good but it depends on the make up of the panel. I always shudder when I see the Poisoned Dwarf or Pies. They are useless.
Jeff Kennett equates being gay with pedophilia. His time at Beyond Blue must be rapidly ending.
FORMER state premier Jeff Kennett has provoked a gay rights storm by backing a football club that sacked a trainer for being gay.
Jeff Kennett in gay football trainer row
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24084385-5006301,00.html
Seems like Kennett might be trying to drum up some publicity for himself in a push to stand for Lord Mayor of Melbourne. (On the principle that any publicity is good publicity).
Ronster
“The road to Hell is paved with good intentions.”
No-one is doubting Sir Kevin’s commitment to addressing CC. The friendly suggestions relate to his methods.
One complaint is that his solution (ETS) is not the best one. Clearly the Ron Solar Farm has it all over ETS.
The other concern is that even if ETS was the way to go that Ruddster will allow it to be crippled by endless reports, caveats and negotiated agreements with the huge forces that don’t want an ETS which would effectively kill it.
pleasant sunday morning – turn on PC-
Jeff Kennett reappears.
aaaarrrghghgh.
BB@251 – Just read your bit – cracked up laughing because yesterday same thing happened here. Husband turns into lunatic when he has either chain saw or pruning things in his hands. Maybe you heard me yelling from here.
Yeah – the shade has gone from the hydrangeas and he was in big trouble. Today he is lovable, i.e until he brings out the b…. things again!! No sympathy from me BB, sorry.
Did anyone hear comment from Cassidy this a.m. – words to the effect ‘but it all hangs on what the msm will do with the ETS thing’ – so that means the Murdoch press will hang it if they want the Libs back in 2010.
Also KerryAnne Walsh doesn’t think that this country can handle the big picture ideas – so they shouldn’t ever be brought up apparently. She obviously has never sat in on a business meeting where one is told to bring up a big idea and then, if accepted, darn well go out and make it happen. The MSM mob make my blood curdle. Thank goodness for sites like this.
What the Insiders panel seems to forget to mention is that polls after polls the punters want something to be done now and regardless of the others do. The punters are well infront of the MSM and the Libs on CC.
Anyway, if you want to punish China, make sure you are prepared to pay $300 for a DVD player, rather than the ridiculous $50 as now.
Still waiting for the anti-gg chief populist correspondent to acknowledge that he got it wrong on the state of cohesion within the opposition cf CC response. Turns out that Nelson dropped the 180 degree do nothing switcheroo on Turnbull yesterday morning. Turnbull had sort of tested the numbers but hasn’t got them for sure. Too close. Fortunately there is no cohesion problem for the Gunt who on Insiders today said that he has excellent verbal intercourse with Blindeye practically every day. But,hang on, therefore he surely must have known that the switcheroo was on the table? So, if Nelson is not having excellent verbal intercourse with Turnbull, why didn’t the Gunt let Turnbull know the switcheroo was on in order to stop him looking like a goose when his most recent policy pronouncement on the topic turns into a dead duck? Looking forward to the next anti-gg front pager on the topic: ‘Opposition in massive backflip rejects Howard’s radical CC policy.’
Meanwhile, back in Williwillinot land the smirkometer is really ticking over.
Abbott’s comment about Rudd’s explanation of the ETS being worse that Hewson’s birthday cake GST, (http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24084715-29277,00.html)
highlights the LNP position – focus on the marketing forget about policy.
Presumably Abbott still thinks the GST is a good idea, or does he think if something is difficult to explain, then it shouldn’t be done?
Abbott is probably gloating, knowing that for many Liberal voters, any message has to be dumbed down.
301 Jen. Well at least Kennett won’t be Mayor of Melbourne now. What a disgraceful comment.
Oh goody! a TV bliztkrieg from the Pineapple Party.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/27/2315628.htm?section=justin
May I suggest:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=S5gmsOl-RSQ
“Go the Borg”??????
Yep, tidlewave of support on the back of that phrase for sure.
An advertising blitz.. perhaps along the lines of “Once upon a time there were two parties that were useless…”
steve @ 308
nice post. LOL.
Grog- are you suggesting my comment will stop Kennett being Mayor of Mlebourne??
sorry -really don’t get it.
MELbourne in fact.
Oh… or did you mean the comment JK made equating gay men to paedophiles… ??(i’ll opt for that explanation for now).
What a fckwit that man is- beyondblue needs to get rid of him NOW.
Lawrence Springborg bears an uncanny resemblance to Kevin Andrews in the photo linked in 308.
Perhaps they are cloning themselves so there are enough of them left to fill the vacancies.
Jen,
The scary man on Gilligans Isalnd has reposted his standard “we’ll all be rooned” rant. Check this out for the equivalent of “a Bex, a cuppa tea and a good lie down”.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/27/business/27every.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
KR has his health issues which may explain his mournfulness, but my favourite Monty Python moment is “Always Look on the Bright Side of Life”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1loyjm4SOa0
Grinch – I have made it my policy not to discuss that Other Election on this thread as it just causes so much grief and angst (for me!).
However it gladdens my heart to see that you are in fact an optimist.
My favourite MP sketch is from Meaning of life – ‘Every Sperm is Sacred’, being a catholic girl and all…;)
#315 GG, yes it was Showy big day out and the natives are very happy on the G Island.
I think this guy got it right and he died yesterday (25 July 2008). hat tip:
Randy Pausch: The dying man who taught America how to live
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/randy-pausch-the-dying-man-who-taught-america-how-to-live-800182.html
FINNS
whats ESJ doing then , being a witch doctor , sending smoke signals not that i’d accuse ESJ of being a stirrer gentleman and all
Ron,Finns
Still LMAO , the showy ouburst has all the hallmarks of a Raelian convention with the chief loon, Charlie himself delivering the sermon. I guess after the rant the metaphorical executions will start on the island.
I was kind of hoping I’d seen the last of the quarreling between particular individuals from the old US threads. Those individuals are free to come on here and argue with each other about Australian politics, but anything else is off-topic.
Unusually for me, I’ve got a genuine psephological question.
In SA, there is a big decision to be made about a new hospital vs a new entertainment/sports stadium. In short, Labor wants a new hospital (the Marjorie Jackson-Nelson Hospital FFS). The Libs have said they will renovate the Royal Adelaide Hospital and build a multi-purpose stadium where the new hospital would have been.
The Libs are making it a the centrepiece of why we should vote for them next election and trying to make the next election into a “referendum” on the issue. Public opinion seems to be in favour of the Libs plan ATM.
There is a Labor document which includes a plan for a “popular vote” before the next election on the issue. That way, Rann can change his policy assuming the vote goes that way, saying we are going with what the people want and thereby taking the wind out of the Libs sails. It sounds like a very smart piece of politics.
My question is how do you perform the popular vote? It’s not a referendum, more a plebiscite (?). Could they perform it online, by phone-in or by mail ballot to avoid a very costly polling booth vote? Is there a precedent for it?
In Albury they do ‘vox-pops’ in the local paper Diogenes. Maybe they could try that.
Who said politics and sport don’t mix. Crows supporters will love this video, which is suspiciously similar to one William posted on the other thread.
The Adelaide Crows Downfall
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Y35Lewh-LM&eurl
Diogenoski
#300
“No-one is doubting Sir Kevin’s commitment to addressing CC. The friendly suggestions relate to his methods”
There hav been 3 specific methods put here , with posters specifically naming a Politicans (Keating by a few posters and Obama specifically by 2 posters) I responded to those posters Keating committed to ratifying Kyoto , Obama does not support ratifying Kyoto , Rudd ratified Kyoto Then Keating had proven CC policy substanse (signed IPCC convention) and was a macro policy man with ‘left’ economics to CC , Obama has no proven CC substanse at all & has a howard type economic philosohy to CC , Rudd has CC substanse like Keating but unlike Keating is a ‘left’ micro not ‘left’ macro economic man Keating would hav attacked the anti CC clan ferously with a broad macro substanse plan , Obama talks sweet nothings of nothing because there is no substanse , Rudd blandly explains a micro substanse plan and puts in the detailed ETS ‘process’ to achieve it
Of th three , Keating was magnificent for his times But for CC a Keating would not work The ETS is a tax to on all business’s effectiveley and all voters with NO full $ offset , so if Keating came out swinging now with ETS in any detail , BEFORE the ETS detail is worked out , Keating would get trapped by the Libs on whose th “winners & whose losers” , like Hewson did over his “GST cake” Politicaly Labor & CC would then get reely undermined with scares to the potential “losers’voters For CC an Obama is a disaster because he’s not committed to CC , so his pretty words are bullsh.t We aussies don’t need to be sold by a snake oil salesman on CC , we Aussies are already converts , we want solutions , not words Now we come to Sir Kevin , his beaucrat micro approach suits bedding down ETS as the tax will hit EVERY part of the economy and hit us all
It is frustrating because in the interim of this submissions process , the anti CC clan are getting free hits at CC & Sir Kevin , that’s politicl life Sure I’d like the ron super solar farms , but that Garnaut didn’t cost or schedule one Hope its in the White Paper
As for ETS the point is the World leaders all decided on ETS , a cap & trade as an economic solution to CC to prevent the World economy going busters in phasing out dirty enegy The reality is Australia is part of a global economy , we cann’t pull out of it unless we want a depresion So Sir Kevin is forsed to have ETS as well , and there’s no economic choice Perhaps the solar farms can be an add on Sir Kevin dull ? , could not care less , I just want CC results because the kids of tomorrow can not fight CO2 with prety words
Ronster
While a cap and trade ETS is inevitable, Oz is the second (?) worst polluter in the world per capita. To reduce our emissions to acceptable targets, our ETS would have to be more drastic than other countries. If there was more of a focus and investment in alternative sources of energy (renewable, nuclear etc), there would be less concern about the effect the ETS would have on the economy.
ron-
some of us are critical of Rudd for not going far enough.
Diogenes @ 322 -
My question is how do you perform the popular vote? It’s not a referendum, more a plebiscite (?). Could they perform it online, by phone-in or by mail ballot to avoid a very costly polling booth vote? Is there a precedent for it?</i.
Don’t know about a precedent at either state or federal level. I doubt it.
On-line would probably disfranchise far too many people, especially the elderly who are the group most affected by the hospital question, and phone-ins would require a lot of workers. But local government elections have been mostly by mail for yonks and apparently it’s relatively cheap.
As to the question, I was a patient in the RAH during the hottest week of 2006 and the air conditioning pretty much gave up the ghost early on the first day of the heatwave. The staff did their best but most of my fellow patients were old blokes who’d just had bypasses and/or valve replacements and some were really struggling with the heat. Fortunately?, lung lobectomies being about the most painful thing anyone can endure, I was on so much fentanyl that I was beyond caring.
IMHO, the sooner they bulldoze the joint the better. It’s old, tired and way beyond its use-by-date! Not sure the proposed site is the right one, but there are probably not many alternatives with the same transport options.
How do you renovate an operating hospital?
Diogenoski & Jen
I reckon there are at least 5 diferent levels one can addrsss CC on , which i’ve tried to talk about , so being a bit of an idelistic barbarian hav to be careful which 5 spears to throw
The World ? on total emissions , India , China ,Russia & the US each emit more in 1 year than we do in 10 The World had a chance with Kyoto , everyone but the US & some little russian republic has ratified it It expires 2012 when India China & Russia current siganories (but presently zero targets) would hav been FORSED to negotiate future targets for the same reaon every other country has been forsed to ie. the politcl pressure of having to accept the Kyoto’s IPCC 400 top scientists climate scenarios India China & Russia selfishly would like to get out of Kyoto targets but can not presently The US selfishly for itself via there 2 Pres candidates both not suppotrting ratifing of Kyoto , have given India China & Russia the way out of Kyoto as well , ie by joining a US alternitive to Kyoto proposal group of emitting countries This competitar of Kyoto group of selfish India China Rusia & the US will work under NO Kyoto IPPCC top 400 scientists pressure at all They will make selfish econamic decisions for there own countrys at the expense of CC Now you can blame all 4 collectively & I do , but the selfish US 2 Pres candidates hav opened the door for there own selfish politcl motives , and st.ff CC
Europe is the 3rd biggest econ block in the world , they are committed to Tyoto
hav enormous CC programs operating & so far are on track for there 8% Kyoto emmissions 2012 target Canda & Japan likewise ar working hard , but i fear CC progress world wide has now big problems , you can start blaming the US greed & its plastic pollies so please do not give me ‘inspirational words ‘ , no policy committment action of suport ratification before Kyoto becomjes another UN sham
So to ‘oz’ , Sir Kevin knows we ar going to get ripped off econamicaly if we go too quick , and specificaly by your yes we can mans CC policy for th US AND by China via our commmodity exports Neither of these 2 vcountries are our econamic friends So Sir Kevin knows all this but has been forsed to take on ETS like all other countries hav BUT Sir Kevin will hav emmission targets post 2012 despite what the other selfish countries do
Boring Kev ? compared to the selfish rogues of politcians of US China India Russia I call him the Sir action man , he is doing like the EU whilst the big 4 posture selfishley We hav an CC action plan now The RET scheme on R E details should be out Feb , legislation is planned approx June 2089 & ETS commmencement is planned July 2010
The ron solar farms /equivalent Hope they are in the White Paper , we need the replacement enegy Infrastructure to phase out dirty coal ,as carbon capture techno may not get developed After i see the White Paper and the RET details then lets see , but maybe pu in some subs Its frustrating because the anti CC people ar critising and its a big ‘process’ job to set up ETS the devil of ETS will be in the detail
MayoFeral
I think the new site is great (it’s directly opposite my private rooms). The name sucks but the idea is OK. My info is that the Marj is dead in the water.
ruawake
There are plans to bulldoze the residential block and part of one wing and build on there. There’s enough spare room in the other wing to shift the patients while the new wing is built. It’s a bit half-baked and almost as expensive as a completely new hospital.
But the public seem to want a new stadium instead.
Ron- FYI-
why the Greens are critical of Rudd’s ETS.
http://greens.org.au/node/1170
Ronster
While you have the Big Selfish Four as you put it (India, China, Russia & the US) who are clearly never going to do the right thing, it’s a very easy argument for the anti-CC brigade, led by the MSM and the Libs, to say;
“The vast majority of CO2 emissions come from these four countries. Why should Australia take an economic hit and reduce its standard of living when what we do won’t make a difference without India, China, Russia & the US. They will continue to live it up and pollute away and we’ll be the suckers.”
I don’t agree with this argument but the MSM and Libs are going to bleat it ad nauseum. It appeals to voters sense of lack of fairness and selfishness. It’s going to be a wonderful battle to watch, assuming the Libs go down that track this week.
Pass the popcorn!
and here’s an outline of the policy.
I am curious to hear what you think.
Cheers.
http://greens.org.au/node/764
333 “It’s going to be a wonderful battle to watch, assuming the Libs go down that track this week.”
That will be the track as every other option has been discarded. It is the same track Beasley went down with the GST and will be just as effective politically.
Taking the easy option will stop them from being proactive and developing policy for the simple reason that there is no need for them to do so until after the rest of the world does. Springborg has been using this tactic for years and has no policy to show for decades of sitting around waiting.
It is the track that leads to decades of opposition but always seems so easy at the time.
The great innovation of the Howard/Cossie government was to broaden a tax to include all goods (with the exception of purchases on shares) with one flat rate and include all services.
You run one great big propaganda campaign, such as saying; you tax goods so why not services, Australia is all grown up now and like the rest of the world can have a GST, and that lol prices will fall.
If there is one thing you can bet on, an ETS will not be as inflationary as the GST and will be far more beneficial to the economy in the long term. Unfortunately for the coalition the voters know it.
What about the consequences of our relationship with the US if Labor won the election they yelled?
So here is Condi coming over to hang roung with Smith? Ooh I could see something in the eyes?
Bad luck Dolly, Stephen is better lookin’ than ya LOL.
There were more people (approx 85%) against the GST before it was passed and applied in 2000, then there are in favour of doing something re CC even ETS.
and curiously both will stink just as badly.
ron @ 330 -
India China & Russia selfishly
Sorry, Ron, but I take issue with calling India and China selfish on this issue, and I’m not even sure about Russia.
More than 50% of Indian homes that have no electricity and the only transport is shanks pony, push bikes or public busses/trains. The only fossil fuel they might use is a little kerosene for lighting and cooking. It’s little better in China where most homes still only have one or two lights and, maybe, a small CRT TV that uses little power. Russians are better off, but only marginally so. As a rule of thumb, Russians use a quarter of the energy Americans do (which itself is slightly less than Aussies), China a quarter of the Russian figure and the average Indian about half what a Chinese does.
Nor are they the ones who’ve created the problem, though they are now adding to it. How much of the extra CO2 in the atmosphere was put there by us rich westerners? 90%? 95%?
So just who is being selfish here?
They are as entitled to have what we have. When we reduce our consumption per head to their level then we can start pointing fingers, not before!
An interesting statistic. Japan heeded the lesson of the 1970s oil shock and set out to reduce energy use as much as possible. As a result they only half as much energy per unit of production as Americans/us yet their standard of living hasn’t suffered, indeed it has increased substantially.
And while my bloods up, the next time Rudd starts banging on about poor countries reducing fuel subsidies I hope someone plants a size 12 boot up his arse. In many of these countries the poorest of the poor use kero for lighting and cooking because it’s all they can afford/get. Up fuel prices and they will be the ones that bear the impact, not those rich enough to have a moped, much less a car. As a diplomat who’s worked in some of them he really should know better!!!!
MF
As a burns surgeon, I should point out that huge numbers of people with kerosene stoves get horribly burnt.
And with all the investment in biofuels, there isn’t any food left for them to cook anymore so population control seems to be the West’s policy towards the problem of CC in the third world.
Although, they seems to be doing a pretty good job of it themselves. India has just had SEVENTEEN blasts in one hour.
Deadly blasts strike Indian city
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7527004.stm
There is no shortage of actual food. Just a shortage of money to buy the food. Plus not all biofuels are madfe from food.
BSF 342
Isn’t the problem that the land used to produce human food is now used for biofuel production of the sugar-rich (beet, cane) or oil-rich (palm, soy) plants, which may or may not also be a kind of food?
So overall, the amount of human produced for the human market is less, driving up prices, ie the food vs fuel debate which is so controversial at the moment.
Also biofuel production is very water intensive, leading to a lack of fresh water in some areas.
Whoops!
That should be “food produced for the human market” rather than “human produced for the human market”. It’s that bloody book I just read on cannibalism…
Diogenes
Thought you meant soylent green
Diogenes- you are absolutely correct. Biofuels sound great in theory but the rate of deforestation and using land for fuel crops rather than food is a dreadful outcome. We neeed to get a lot smarter about how we do this.
313 Jen – sorry I made my comment then left – yes I was referring to Kennett’s comments about gays.
Centre
Centre
“The GREAT innovation of the Howard/Cossie government was to broaden a tax to include all goods (with the exception of purchases on shares) with one flat rate and include all services.”
NO , it was income redistribution to the upper rich end The bottom end taxpayer got $15 tax cut per week & the top end $110 per week Tell me how is that fair
NO , it was asset redistribution to the rich end A $30,000 Holden had 30% sales tax $10,000 vs only 10% GST $3000 for GST A $200,000 Massarti had 30% sales tax sales tax $67,000 vs only 10% GST $20,000
The GST added 10% to every product & service , average people spend money on and was a net negative to all of them There was the no offseting benifit in infrastrucure , schools , hospitals etc In fact , Howard later brought in 3 more tax cuts & all skewed to the upper end , incl last 2007 3 billion worth that Ruddy dustbined
I’ll tell you what “The GREAT innovation of the Howard/Cossie government ” was , it was how to waste the net $ difference of 10 years worth of the terms of trade between Hawke/Keating last deade vs Howard /Cossie first decade ie $400 BILLION for zero benefit
The GREAT innovation of the Howard/Cossie government
Thanks Grog- phew!
Thought I had scored another combatant…and I get so tired
Having lived with Kennett in my face for such a long time and had one of the happiest political moments of my life, (watching him get tipped out- restored my faith in democracy), ), I can never feel anything but nausea when i hear his voice and see that hair. I keep waiting for him to put his hand up for the Feds again…although he possibly an improvement on the current lot, which says a lot.
MayoFeral
The big 4 ar selfish India China & th US will not stay in Kyoto for there selfish econamic reasons and by 2015 they will be the Worlds THREE biggest poluters
The argument they ar poor , so give them a free pass is not on , that guarantees CC rises above the 2% to 3% current levels That is unacceptable because the IPPCC say 2% to 3% is the irreversable tippoing point In fact the IPPCC say there’s a 50% chance without reductions temperatures will exceed 4%
What WAS negotiable under Kyoto , was some dispensation for less developed countries who had contributed less to th existing CO2 up there India & China ar not happy with that now whether they are bluffing we may never know because they will not offer any “deal”
On other hand the most selfish country on earth the US wants India & China to be treated equally from day one WITH th US on targets , for delfish US econamic competitive reasons The US damn well knows that is an unacceptble position for India & China to accept
So between the 3 , they are st.ffing up Kyoto & targets , and Russia ar offering zero also
I reckon all 4 ar selfish , but the degree of selfishness can be varied….but it does not help CC solutions , it makes it almost impossible unless within Kyoto , and none of the 4 want to be within Kyoto and unde rthe IPCC scientists pressure of scenariios to address
Diogs @344 -
is that the 2008 Liberal Party Almanac?
Ron-
what do you think of the POST-Kyoto ratifications?
Good to see we agree, Ron
Ron,
On income distribution, do you believe progressive taxation actually still works?
Take a hypothetical surgeon from Adelaide as an example , lets call him Perseus to protect his identity:
He works long hours, sees many patients and receives $380,000 per annum after he pays for medical insurance, practice expenses etc. Under our income tax scales he pays 40 cents in the dollar tax assuming he has no deductions.
However our hypothetical case:
Has a seperate service company which provides services to his practice: (tax is immediately reduced to 30 per cent from the top scale of 45 per cent for income over $180k)
Employs his spouse or partner in the practice at a modest “salary” of $40,000 hence attracting tax at 15 per cent instead of 40 per cent.
Loads up on interest deductions so he can convert his income to CGT (and ultimately take out at the discounted rate, ie 22.5% as compared to 45% on the top bracket)
All up in a good year he is able to cut his tax to 20 cents in the dollar (without sending dollars overseas).
The same would apply to any self-employed person or professional, is this just Ron?
Shock! Janet A suggests the LNP says they will only do an ETS if everyone else does it.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/moving_beyond_the_rhetoric
“The other strategy is to hasten more slowly and more sensibly. In other words, make support for an ETS conditional upon it being a meaningful and economically responsible action. That means telling voters that the Coalition will support an ETS if other major emitters are on the same track and then tailoring an emissions trading system that does not damage the economy.”
Centre
You got me wound up there ! Howard/Cossie kept tricking the battes with a false fist full of dollars , and we had ineffective leaders to combat the sneaky rodent
Jen
ratifying Kyoto now means you are part of the protocols now for negotiating the post 2012 Kyooto emmission targets What the big 4 want to do is get 13 emmitting Nations only together , make there side ‘deals’ (won’t efectively help CC) and then present it toi the Kyoto groups , what choice will othr countries hav but to accept what i reckon will be a sham CC world deal (and both Pres candidates want to go down this path) when the rich ones have already done a deal
IF they were thinking of CC first then they’d allm negotiate wITHIN Kyoto , under the IPCCscientists scenarios pressures
Whenever people say this I have a mental picture of a whole bunch of people dressed up to the nines encouraging each other to walk through a door “After you” “Why no, but after you fine Sir!” “Oh no m’lady, but after you” “Thank you kindly, but I’ll wait until she goes first.”
Meanwhile, absolutely no progress is made.
354 ESJ
If I met Perseus, I would tell him that if he was a director of the service company which ran his rooms etc, he would be better off diverting 40% of his income into a family trust as the Medical Practitioners Act prevents him from running as a company as you suggest.
That way, he could split some of his income with his wife (and his daughter if she was disabled). He would not get down to a tax rate of 20%, more like 30%. He would probably feel quite guilty about this, especially if he was a liberal progressive, and would feel the need to channel his guilt somewhere.
LOl Diogenes,
I remember one company which said it didnt employ medical staff it simply got a cut of the fee for use of a room.
Shows On, that will give the major polluters heaps of ammunition to say no because we aren’t doing it, instead of putting pressure on those countries.
The current opposition is easily the worst that I have ever seen.
http://news.smh.com.au/national/james-erica-packer-welcome-baby-indigo-20080727-3lps.html
ESJ
too big to answer in 1 blog about progrssive taxation but yes its basicaly fair
Firstly , nil tax to 6K , 15% tax 6k to 30K , then 30% to 75K plus medicare levy
So at 75,000 income you are paying 22.8% tax , and people under tthat ar progressively paying less % tax I think thats fair
IF you go over 75,000 , you ar only paying the 40% on the excess over 75K up to 150K , then 45% on any excess I think thats fair OTHERWISE the poorer people would hav to pay more tax for the same Governmetn monies the Govt collects to spend on servicxes Well i can tell you the poorer people do not hav any more money over
Now to Companys , the rate of 30% is crazy as it opens up unfair loopholes you mentioned to get around progressive taxation seeing its so much lower than persl tax rates Its too low I would be most surprised if the % of income earners over 75,000 do not hav salary sacrifises , super , deductions here there & everywhere , homes as “offices” , exclusive personal car used supposedly for ‘business’ to get deductions , reverse loans to get interst deductions , ‘capital’ itms business to catch depresiation
Therefore the REAL tax most of the higher income earners pay would be far less than the gross figures i mentiond
What i do is my barbarian method I just drive around a few leafy rich suburbs with monstrosity mansions Now they ar all occouied, so they ar doing ok the petals Then i notice the 2 mercs side by side in the garage , then the tennis court and the swimmings pools i think they are ok , but the tax sysytem yes is a mess , lacking creativity & incentive but with too many loophols and the co tax rate is one of them
ron, grog, ShowsOn et al
Read the comments on Janet’s site. I defy anyone to read them all without putting a fist through their computer in frustration. I will leave a sample;
The coalition taking this stance (wanting an ETS but waiting for the big-emitter’s response to climate change) gives them a political edge on Labor in the next electin as being the real economic conservatives and wanting the best for Australia’s ‘working families’. After all, why cripple our ecomony to supposably ‘lead the world’ in ‘carbon reduction’ when it will inevitably be only another symbolic gesture, since China, India and other big-emitters could make our efforts pointless in months!
Good point Dr Janet
I think the coaltion must make a stand. If they are wrong and global warming is a serious problem Labor wins either way. If the alternative is true (dare to be a dissenter) and the earth starts to cool then it will be best to avoid any association with a carbon tax right now.
Fair Dinkum, Albrechtson’s make up has permanently penetrated, and is now tattooed to her brain.
PM Rudd is a strong leader who is prepared to make the tough decisions.
Feeling sexy are you Janet!
Ron – flat tax with a negative income tax for those under the poverty line, no deductions fairer?
Diogenoski
These ar the battle lines for the next electon i’ve been pessimisticaly talking about & fear will happen Th LCP are going to pay the same selfish stance as the US 2 candidates
The US 2 Pres candidates argument is unless China & India agree to hav the same emmissions target criteria as th US , then the US will not enter emmssions negotiations THAT then becomes the US 2 Pres canddtes first defense as to why they do not ratify Kyoto ! China & India rightly say thats unfair , but also sneakily won’t offer a deal either
They are all playing games with CC The Liberals ar a disgrace and by there stanse hav narrowed Sir Kevins CC options But I reckon he & Penny lane will still deliver the CC target policy in th White Paper , and th voters will hav a choice between there pockets & fear vs a cleaner ‘oz’ CC future , hopefully with those farms or equivalents The Libs hav no shame , its so frustrating to see th anti CC MSN & LCP comments
Diogenes @ 341 -
As a burns surgeon, I should point out that huge numbers of people with kerosene stoves get horribly burnt.
We had a kero heater when I was a kid and I have a vague memory of the glass bottle holding the fuel cracking and setting the thing alight.
But as dangerous as they undoubtedly are, kero heaters and stoves are much safer than the main alternative for the poor, wood. Wood smoke is a witches brew of carcinogens that globally kills nearly twice as many people each year as motor vehicles. Even in Sydney where wood heating is relatively uncommon it’s estimated about 400 people with respiratory and/or cardiovascular disorders die prematurely each winter as a result of inhaling it.
Wonder what the NRMA thinks of the coalition’s 1001 policies on greenhouse?
Ditch oil, go green: NRMA
Taxpayers should no longer give $10 billion a year in subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, the nation’s peak motoring body says.
The NRMA wants to wean Australia off its “unhealthy and costly” addiction to oil by a massive boost to greener transport.
(my emphasis)
http://www.smh.com.au/news/energy-smart/ditch-oil-go-green-nrma/2008/07/27/1217097042468.html
It has been a horror last few days for the conservatives. Firstly, there is Cossie showing his hatred for Coconut at the funeral. Cossie has nobody – nobody but to blame but himself. He is a weak individual. All puff, no smoke.
Secondly, News Ltd’s Rugby League is seriously crumbling. We have had defections of the two best centres in Tahu and Gasnier, and now Sonny Bill. The hypocrites are complaining about loyalty (after the the raid by Superleague). AFL take note. It’s here for the taking.
And thirdly, one rich supporter has had a baby GIRL. As Brenda said recently, we all love our children the same.
ESJ
well it would be a starting point to discuss , addressing the poor at one end & the crazy deductions at th other , but i’d probabley want to negotite some ‘extras’ with you , in particular at least one level of ’super tax rate’
One that it was revenue neutral , a second I’am very happy with deductions as incentives for verifiable R & D as it needs far more encouragement in ‘oz’ plus also our export industries to assist our balance of trade status A third would be infrastucture to make us more competitive Fourth some othr areas i’d probably like tax used as an incentive subject to definite verificabilite yA Fifth would be a better balanse of th old double tax on dividends to now effectiverly one tax but Co tax rates at 30% has created an imbalance
Sixth I’d loove to see an analysis by income group (GROSS earnings of a couple from the one entity) , before any deductions were made by anyone and the gross tax that would hav been payable , and compare that by income group to the net taxable income payable & th net actauly paid tax IF the 2 of us had that , then where a tax rate should be set , and where a secondery one should be set as a premium tax over a set income figure could be assessed
Contrary to the assertion by the Coalition that it is not in Australia’s interests to be a leader on Co2 emission reduction, we are sadly lacking well behind the UK & Europe.
{Plans to build Europe’s largest onshore wind farm in South Lanarkshire have been approved by Scottish ministers.
The 152-turbine Clyde wind farm near Abington, will be capable of powering up to 320,000 homes. }
{”The Scottish Government has an ambitious target to generate 31% of Scotland’s electricity demand from renewable sources by 2011 and 50% by 2020,” he said. }
{”Today’s announcement makes it virtually certain that the 2011 target will be met early and represents a significant milestone on the way to achieving the 2020 target.
“Scotland has a clear, competitive advantage in developing clean, green energy sources such as wind, wave and tidal power. }
Also, China is now officially the worlds highest emitter of Co2.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7517176.stm
363 Diogenes
Yep fist and wall are in close contact after reading JA. And what is all this “cripple our economy” bullsh*t?
It won’t.
371 Scorpio. Spot on. Just think if the Howard govt had introduced this back in 03-04. Firstly, they’d still be in power, and we’d be laughing at how we thought it could “cripple the economy”.
Now this is what I call “Global warming”.
The atmosphere of Venus is 96% carbon dioxide, 3% nitrogen & 1% others.
Temperatures can reach up to 464 degrees C.
If we keep going long enough, we might just catch up.
Yes Scorpio you are right
We are well behind Europe The EU have a combined target of 8% and shared between developed (higher target) and less developed lower target)
A principal the US selfishly will not apply
Examples of the fairness of the EU system are the targets UK has 12.5% Germany (incl East G) 21% , Italy 6.5% Belgum 7.5% , whilst some poor EU have very low targets The EU are on track for there 2012 target , so we ar NOT the leader at all in emmssions Sir Kevin will be joining the EU and Japan 6% Canada 6% targets , and sepite the MSN & selfish Libs I believe Sir Kevin & Penny lane will hold firm
I missed Insiders this morning, Paul Kelly gets it about right on Nelson’s strategy:
“Now, the great risk for Nelson is that he gives Rudd a golden issue here. Rudd is able to argue this simply proves, if you ever had any doubt, that the Coalition is a sceptic on climate change, that they will never do anything to address the issue. And I think in that sense he gives Rudd the chance to argue that the Government, the Labor Government, is in the middle ground, it wants to address climate change and it wants to try and do it in an economically responsible way. So that’s the great risk for Nelson.”
Those targets are easy for Europe because they use a lot of nuclear power. 75% of Australia’s emissions are caused by electricity generation. Even if you took every car and truck off the road, our emissions would only drop by 14%. If we are to find a solution to this we need clean electricity generation. Even Turnbull when environment minister said we really need to have emissions neutral electricity generation by 2050 if we are to hit any big targets.
Looking at what scientists have discovered about Venus, it beggars belief that GW deniers can be taken at all seriously.
{Observations of the planet Venus might assist efforts to tackle the threat of climate change here on Earth.
Data from a European probe orbiting Venus paints a picture of a planet that may once have been like Earth, but later evolved in a very different way.
Venus has undergone runaway greenhouse warming, where trapped solar radiation has heated the surface to an average temperature of 467C (872F). }
{It is now becoming clear why the climate on Venus is so different to Earth, when the planets themselves are otherwise quite similar.
“Our new data make it possible to construct a scenario in which Venus started out like the Earth – possibly including a habitable environment, billions of years ago – and then evolved to the state we see now.” }
The Coalition seem to want to create another Venus here!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7117303.stm
Ron,Scorpio
cop this
http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/1919/83/
”
The EU is planning a new supergrid initiative that would harness the massive amount of sun pounding down on the Sahara dessert. The $71 billion plan would take a mere couple of decades to complete, but would supply a significant amount (some report ALL) of the EU’s energy needs. UK’s PM Gordon Brown already supports the idea, which is no surprise considering the new green face he is putting forward, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy is onboard as well.”
Realists 1 Nelson 0
ShowsOn
The 12.5% for UK & the 21% for Germany is still what they hav to reduce by 2012 & they ar on track Perhaps you ar thinking of France who hav no compariable target problem seeing 78% of there electricity is from nuclar
And how is the UK doing it? By building another 10 nuclear power plants over the next 15 years. Germany are trying to get out of nuclear, but it is easy for them to just important power from other countries which we can’t do.
Cutting emissions is easy for European countries. Their circumstances are not comparable to a country like ours that uses a lot more dirty energy per capita for mining and electricity generation.
381 ShowsOn. So the solution is….
Wind? Sun? Hot rocks?? Nuclear?
Yes a bit of everything. The S.A. Geothermal plant should be producing electricity by early next year. And there is more solar per capita used in S.A. than any other state because any power put back into the grid receives a double rebate (half from the power company, half from the state government).
The Federal government should also make special planning laws to make it harder for local governments to block wind power on aesthetic grounds.
Question:
Will the Liberal National Party members in the Federal parliament attend the National Party room meetings, or the Liberal Party room meetings, or both?
Or will they choose which one to attend based on their previous affiliation?
Also, why doesn’t the webpage say Liberal National Party? All I see is LNP everywhere. Is it like KFC, they don’t want you to recall that the food is fried?
Here is a great example how in trying to solve one problem, ie the increasing cost of fossil fuel, in this case, oil, other more serious problems are created.
{”Biofuel production has led to a large loss of wetlands in the US already,” explained Eugene Turner from Louisiana State University.
“They are now growing as much corn to produce biofuels as they used to export out of the country.”
Professor Turner told BBC News that the surge in demand for the crop had resulted in agreements to conserve areas on the margins of farmland being broken. }
{”Although that they may be 3-5% of the terrestrial surface, wetlands store about 20% of all terrestrial carbon, which amounts to 500-700 gigatonnes,” explained Professor Turner.
“We are releasing, on a net basis, about 3.5 gigatonnes into the atmosphere, so any small change in the carbon from wetlands going into the atmosphere has a big impact.”
He added that the future well-being of wetlands in the Arctic region was of particular concern.
“The places where it is going to proportionally warm the greatest is towards the Arctic; that region has an awful lot of wetlands. }
{”The ice is receding, so the carbon that is stored there is going to be released and that is a problem.”}
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7525613.stm
ShowsOn
The first ‘compliance’ year under Kyoto is Jan 2008 to Dec 2008 , where the av of the 5 years must be 5.2% The EU’s share was 8% from January to 2008 to 2012 It does not matter how Europe (the EU) reduce there emmssions by 8% a year av from now to 2012 , they are doing so ! there will be less CO2 by 8% , and they should be applauded Sir Kevin is going down th same track to reduce our emmissions and I believe he will stand firm and deliver
WHEREAS the big 4 US China India & Russia ar playing CC games blaming each othr my point was ignore the selfish big 4 , and ignore the Libs who are using the phoiny selfish US excuse of blaming China & India , we should do our own CC thing , and Sir Kevin is , despite the MSN
I’m just hoping we don’t leave it too late to make any worthwhile difference.
This is scary stuff. {OK, phytoplankton might not be the first thing you think of when you think of the Arctic – that’s probably ice – but this microscopic sea life is vital, not only to the future of life in the Arctic, but perhaps all life on the planet.
As Ray Leakey, chief scientist for the expedition, puts it: “The Arctic is getting warmer – it’s the fastest warming part of the planet. The melting of the sea ice affects not only the physical system, but also the plants and animals. }
{Take away the phytoplankton, and you put everything higher up at risk. More than that, what happens to phytoplankton at the poles will help scientists to predict what might happen to the types of phytoplankton that live in warmer oceans. In a warmer world, the polar seas heat up first.
So they are a laboratory, or test bed, for the rest of the world. }
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/7521339.stm
I meant to include this also.
{Because the startling fact is that the oceans – or more correctly, the life forms that live in them, account for about half of all the absorption by the planet of the carbon dioxide that circulates through the atmosphere. If we disturb that so-called carbon “sink”, then the world could be in big trouble.}
{The oceans’ carbon cycle goes something like this. The phytoplankton take in carbon from the atmosphere to survive. They’re eaten by microbes and zooplankton (like algae, but animals) – which give out CO2.
The phytoplankton and the animals that feed on them die, which locks carbon away in a stable form on the ocean floor.
Scientists suspect that warming the Arctic Ocean, and melting the ice above it so that more light filters through, will make life quite pleasant for many phytoplankton. }
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/7521339.stm
Scorpio
Gusface delivered a wonderful positive post , now you’v brought us back to reality
The latest Kyoto based full IPCC Report (called the Fourth Asessment) includes the input of more than 1,200 of the world’s top scientific authors and 2,500 scientific expert reviewers from more than 130 countries Andrew Bolt quotes 1 quack ! The Reort gives 6 possible climate scenarios , with between 2 degres to 3 degrees being th tipping point Only one of the 6 is under 2 degrees ! (thats 1.8 degrees)
My long posts ar just the frustration of seeing the selfish big 4 world players , the Libs & MSN ignoring irrefutable evidence
ron,
If the only information source that the Libs use to further their knowledge about the effects of global warming caused be human Co2 emissions is through publications by Uncle Rupe’s News Ltd, and they somehow get back into power in 2 years time, then we are all stuffed.
There is an absolute abundance of highly qualified information out there and readily available on the net, that, if they read some of it, even if only cursory, they would be forced to agree that something needs to be done and fast.
One thing that JA omitted to suggest in her article of advice to the Liberal Party Policy developers was to out green the Greens and contend that Rudd’s GG Policy doesn’t go far enough or fast enough.
Every time Rudd tries to catch up with them, they just need to go one step further ahead of him. What a mob of slack, unimaginative wank#rs the whole blankey lot of them are.
absolutely Scorpio
Move to the left of the ALP? That’ll be the day…
Most rabid is the backbench. One MP claims 70 per cent either does not believe in climate change or is plain sceptical. When Nelson first broke ranks with Coalition policy a month ago, he emboldened this group. They were quietly hostile last year when the party room was not consulted on the emissions trading scheme policy that Turnbull and John Howard took to the election.
“We were staring at an electoral abyss. We had to pretend we cared,’ said one sceptic explaining why no one spoke out against the policy at the time.
They no longer feel constrained.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/pugnacious-nelson-ready-to-take-a-glove-again/2008/07/27/1217097054285.html?page=2
Thats the Lib all over – The Great Pretenders
Wealthy businessman Bob Day, Liberal candidate for Makin at last year’s federal election, has quit the Liberal Party after 20 years in protest at alleged internal manipulation that delivered the Mayo preselection to Jamie Briggs. Day was one of nine Liberals who sought preselection in Mayo. He is not commenting on whether he might stand in the by-election as an independent or Family First candidate. If nothing else, the Libs have lost a big donor.
this the funniest thing ive read in years:
You have to be old enough to remember Abbott and Costello, and too old to REALLY understand computers, to fully appreciate this. For those of us who sometimes get flustered by our computers, please read on…
If Bud Abbott and Lou Costello were alive today, their famous sketch, ‘Who’s on First?’ might have turned out something like this:
COSTELLO CALLS TO BUY A COMPUTER FROM ABBOTT
ABBOTT: Super Duper computer store. Can I help you?
COSTELLO: Thanks. I’m setting up an office in my den and I’m thinking about buying a computer.
ABBOTT: Mac?
COSTELLO: No, the name’s Lou.
ABBOTT: Your computer?
COSTELLO: I don’t own a computer. I want to buy one.
ABBOTT: Mac?
COSTELLO: I told you, my name’s Lou.
ABBOTT: What about Windows?
COSTELLO: Why? Will it get stuffy in here?
ABBOTT: Do you want a computer with Windows?
COSTELLO: I don’t know. What will I see when I look at the windows?
ABBOTT: Wallpaper.
COSTELLO: Never mind the windows. I need a computer and software.
ABBOTT: Software for Windows?
COSTELLO: No. On the computer! I need something I can use to write proposals, track expenses and run my business. What do you have?
ABBOTT: Office.
COSTELLO: Yeah, for my office. Can you recommend anything?
ABBOTT: I just did.
COSTELLO: You just did what?
ABBOTT: Recommend something.
COSTELLO: You recommended something?
ABBOTT: Yes.
COSTELLO: For my office?
ABBOTT: Yes.
COSTELLO: OK, what did you recommend for my office?
ABBOTT: Office.
COSTELLO: Yes, for my office!
ABBOTT: I recommend Office with Windows
COSTELLO: I already have an office with windows! OK, let’s just say I’m sitting at my computer and I want to type a proposal. What do I need?
ABBOTT: Word.
COSTELLO: What word?
ABBOTT: Word in Office.
COSTELLO: The only word in office is office.
ABBOTT: The Word in Office for Windows.
COSTELLO: Which word in office for windows?
ABBOTT: The Word you get when you click the blue ‘W’.
COSTELLO: I’m going to click your blue ‘w’ if you don’t start with some straight answers. What about financial bookkeeping? You have anything I can track my money with?
ABBOTT: Money.
COSTELLO: That’s right. What do you have?
ABBOTT: Money.
COSTELLO: I need money to track my money?
ABBOTT: It comes bundled with your computer.
COSTELLO: What’s bundled with my computer?
ABBOTT: Money.
COSTELLO: Money comes with my computer?
ABBOTT: Yes. No extra charge.
COSTELLO: I get a bundle of money with my computer? How much?
ABBOTT: One copy.
COSTELLO: Isn’t it illegal to copy money?
ABBOTT: Microsoft gave us a license to copy Money.
COSTELLO: They can give you a license to copy money?
ABBOTT: Why not? THEY OWN IT!
(A few days later)
ABBOTT: Super Duper computer store. Can I help you?
COSTELLO: How do I turn my computer off?
ABBOTT: Click on ‘START’…………
gusface, going by some of the reports of the level of computer literacy of many members of the Liberal Party last year, I can readily see that scenario repeated with any number of Lib Front Benchers.
It probably explains why there are so many of them who are cl;imate change sceptics. They get all their information from the MSM, predominately the Oz and other News Ltd publications.
Scorpio
I instantly thought of the fiberals when i read it.
why the MSM does not do more parody of these bumblers is beyond me.
maybe they are hoping for more rivers of gold from the party of doublespeak.
From the OO, Nelson confirms the speculation of yesterday. He is only interested in getting elected. He has no interest in leadership or policy. Note the phrase “Rudd has misunderstood the electorate”. So now, the electorate makes policy given their vast experience in CC. The argument is going to be “national interest”, which is code for “electability”.
Yesterday, Dr Nelson said: “Our priority in deciding our policy is to act in Australia’s best interest and for Australia not to get too far out in front of the ‘big guys’ of greenhouse gas emissions, such as India and China.
“I believe that so far the argument on greenhouse gas emissions has been fairly emotional and wrapped up with the symbolism of ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. I think that is about to change as we look at the economic impact of an emissions trading scheme and we need to have our economic eyes wide open.
“I am not a climate change sceptic and accept something has to be done, but whatever happens has to be done in the national interest.
“In his rush, Mr Rudd has misunderstood the electorate and is about to be wrong-footed.”
Libs fall in line on climate
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24086961-601,00.html
In other news, the alcopop tax died a horrible death this morning. New figures (from the alcohol lobby) showed it had increased spirit sales (which is not necessarily consumption) by 10%. Fielding has said he won’t pass it based on these figures, and it looks like Mr X won’t either.
Liquor sale surge blunts alcopop tax
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24085831-5006301,00.html
“The national Interest”???
How about SURVIVAL!
Wankers.
Senator Abetz urged the Government to wait for a comprehensive international program of emissions reduction that would include big polluters such as India and China.
“If we put a price on carbon, it should be zero or very low until such time as the major emitters and our competitors are in the same ballpark, otherwise the environmental outcomes will be worse,” he said.
Senator Abetz is very lucky the punters do not realize how econamicaly stupid that statement is , as well as being environmental stupid
Jen 352 Says:
July 27th, 2008 at 8:57 pm “Ron-what do you think of the POST-Kyoto ratifications?”
What “POST-Kyoto ratifications” ar you referring to ?
gusface @ 395
Laugh!
Thats pretty funny and reminded me of something that happened years ago when I was working as a Comp Tech. This customer came in with this comp they had just bought from Cash Converters a few days earlier, they had spent a few days with it but couldn’t get “it to do anything”… All it had was this flashing “c” on the screen, lol… After much, much pain explaining that without getting windows (was win95 from memory) the best they could really hope for was to type “time” “tree” etc I sold them the copy of Win95. Whislt installing it for them I was explaining that they should get some anti-virus software as well among other things, the husband jumps up and says, “nope, no way, I don’t believe in computer virus’s, theres no oxygen inside the circuits, it’s impossible for them to survive!!!
I gave em a share copy of “gopher hunt” and just GTF outa there
gusface Says: @ 397,
{maybe they are hoping for more rivers of gold from the party of doublespeak.}
Gus, the thought occurred to me a while back that maybe the reason why the MSM are so blindsided on the multiple shortcomings of the Libs and appear so determined to undermine Rudd Labor’s agenda of reform, is that they are hoping to spook Rudd into engaging in a similar media campaign to the ongoing misuse of taxpayers money engaged in by Howard for 11 & a half years.
I hope he resists and continues on with his program of reform and rejects any thoughts of reverting back to the corrupt manipulation of public opinion of the rodent which was developed into an art form under Howard. The MSM have suckled on the public teat for survival for far too long as it is.
It’s about time they got by on the marits of the product that they present to the general public. Not constant spin propping up an incompetent but financially generous Government or ex- Government.
“merits”.
gusface @ 379 -
I haven’t been able to find a solar radiation map for the Sahara, but as most of it is further from Equator than the area of Australia that has the highest, most consistent solar radiation (lime green bit in this BoM map) the Sahara would have slightly less energy falling on it.
The dark green areas have more radiation in the dry months but this drops off during the wet. However, that is also the case for our northern neighbours which presents us with a great opportunity by doing what is proposed by the EU. We could just as easily build a chain of solar farms across our north and export the power to Indonesia, PNG, the Philippines and possibly even Singapore and Malaysia. They could also provide employment for remote Aboriginal communities which might go a long way to easing their social problems.
$71 billion spread over 20+ years is peanuts. All it takes is imagination and the will. Sadly, the Opposition clearly has neither, and I’m not sure about Rudd or Australian business.
It’s hard to believe, considering the verbal diarrhea that Milne has dished up in the last 18 Months or so but, this is a reasonably accurate and balanced report on the current and evolving Climate Change policy especially in regard to the Libs.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24086175-33435,00.html
Mayo
also this co from canada has just released this technology
“SHEC LABS has developed solar concentrator and complementary solar receiver technology that is able to concentrate sunlight to a very high level. Sunlight has been concentrated up to 5,000 times the intensity of the sun and in commercial scale systems could be high as 11,000 to 16,000 times the intensity of the sun. This immense solar concentration creates high heat at the focal point that approach the surface temperature of the sun at 6,000 °C (11,000 °F). Metal placed at the focus is instantly melted.”
http://www.shec-labs.com/press_releases/2008-07-14.php
Scorpio
Apparently as part of the charter of responsible gvt all gvt advertising will have to be vetted and approved by the DEPT not the MINISTER
also i think an independent body was mooted by bob brown-maybe he will do a deal to get some enabling legislation thru the senate .
ron- the discussions at the G8 summit re post 2012.
Milne seems to less enamoured with the Liberal brand than other conservative commentators.
Gusface
presume the high voltage DC transmission lines that would carry the MW through PV or solar thermal concentration , could be econamicaly & logistically be constructed in the oceans north of ‘oz’ to get th export potential MayoFeral mentiond in #406 ?
(had in mind the mediterran from Afrca to Europe land mass is less width , shallower & more stable 7 not aware of engineering needed)
I thought Milne was scathing of Nelson and Turnbull on “Insiders” too. However it has to be put in context. Milne is a Costello supporter.
Diogenes @ 399 -
New figures (from the alcohol lobby) showed it had increased spirit sales (which is not necessarily consumption) by 10%.
You’ve almost certainly hit the nail with your qualifier about sales -v- consumption. I don’t drink but have noticed that the supermarkets increased their spirit pricing from $50 to $60 per 2 bottles in the last 6-9 months so it’s very likely most of that 10% is due to price increases.
The SMH’s article on this says:
But a Herald analysis of industry sales figures over the year to June found a decrease in the overall consumption of alcohol on a year-ended basis.
And that:
The Herald figures show that compared with June last year sales of ready-to-drink beverages measured in standard drinks have fallen 42 per cent. But the rise in sales of full-strength spirits was only 24 per cent, leaving a fall in the overall number of standard drinks sold of 8.5 per cent over the year.
In other words this is just another media beat-up. How unsurprising!
Nelson won’t get off scot free with his approach regarding the ETS. The Libs are taking a real chance of being labelled and perceived as weak and indecisive.
Michelle Grattan – “In a further blow to Dr Nelson, the electricity industry has accused the Opposition of potentially putting the country’s energy supply at risk if it fails to give investors certainty by nominating a date by which it would start emissions trading.”
http://www.theage.com.au/national/nelson-faces-dissent-on-emissions-policy-20080727-3lqj.html
{Apparently as part of the charter of responsible gvt all gvt advertising will have to be vetted and approved by the DEPT not the MINISTER}
Gus, I am hoping that Labor sticks with that and also the reform of the “freedom of Information” Legislation they promised.
The changes you mentioned must have given the MSM no end of sleepless nights after the gravy train they have been riding for the past decade.
The opportunities presented to the media by the new FoI amendments seem to have gone un-noticed. The ability to do proper investigatory journalism once these amendments are in place is a golden opportunity for the MSM to regain some relevancy rather than just falling back on media releases and political spin by politicians.
Or just making it up as they go.
“Labor insiders say”, “a Liberal Party Official was reported as saying”,
“people think”, adnausium.
Jen 409 Says:
July 28th, 2008 at 11:39 am
“ron- the discussions at the G8 summit re post 2012.”
Part of the G8 Summitt was a CC discusion called the “G8 plus 5″ (the other 5 big poluters China India Brazil Mexico South Africca
They all agreed CO2 emmission need to be cut by 50% buy 2050 !!!! Kyoto agreed to that 10 years ago and now says min 80% (as does Bob Brown) This “G8 plus 5″ agreement is a con on us all
This G8 +5 (’GED’) is what both McCain and Obama want as th forum to future negotiate CC , ie. OUTSIDE of Kyoto China & India want to get OUT of Tyoto , and the US does NOT want to get IN to Kyoto (all selfishly) This new forum competing to Kyoto is the mechanism Its all dirty selfish world politcs
If you read my IPPCC scientists scenarios quoted in #389 , the Kyoto signatories are obligated to set emmission targets to meet at least one of th 6 climate scenarios , and obviously th US & its politcans want a lower emmssions target than that They do not want to pay th econamic price we & th EU ar preapred to pay Neither is China & India IF they can get out of Kyoto , and the Yanks ar showing them th door out , a competing Kyoto forum with 50% reductions by 2050
The bigggest blame belongs to th most selfish , the US They ar th ONLY ones in Kyoto , and they ar doing the ’spoiling’ …successfully , with “there” alternitive , with th resyt of th G8 forsed to follow like teddy bears to the muscle of US power
They ar th ONLY ones NOT in Kyoto
OK – thanks ron.
Jen
I presented the reasons for the greedy big 4 wanting not to ratify Kyoto (the US) and wanting to get out of Kyoto (China & India , probabley Russia also)
There object is to avoid the Scientists scenarios , there motives (econamic selfish greed)
Th reverse argument is Kyoto is made up of 182 countries who’ve ratifyied Kyoto and one the US who hasn’t (Kazistan will this year)
Therefore 182 Countries happily signed Kyoto mark 1 with emmissions targets (with China India russia free first round passes)
EVERYONE in the world is happy to have Kyoto mark 11 under Kyoto Sceintists scenarios EXCEPT guess who , the US who does not want to come in , and the three bad emmiters China India & Russia who want to get out
.
(th remaining 6 of th G8 ar supporters of Kyoto)
Ron- I do appreciate your explanations and I also understand your concerns.
My own understanding of the detail is pretty limited so I am trying to read up on the various positons and policies re: CC and howto best manange it.
left of field gossip
apparently talcum and afew others are having drinkies and nibbles with the hoi polloi around the traps this week.
both as focus group feedback and also a bit of fleshpressing and horsetrading methinks
results later
ps its invite only
(and their was me ready to do a tootsie-but mrs g wasnt impressed)
The best line ever delivered by a climate change expert a Professor nonetheless.
Professor Barry Brook heads Adelaide University’s research institute for climate change and sustainability, “Climate scientists don’t use temperature charts to “prove” global warming.
They use the scientific principles of physics, chemistry, geology, biology, and so on, to form ideas and to make predictions. Then they go out and test them.”
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/vvvv/desc/#commentsmore
JOH
time to get off the fense Do you believe Bolt & a few quacks you deny the earth is warming from human activity of CO2 OR do you believe
th 2007 latest Kyoto based full IPCC Report (called the Fourth Asessment) which includes the input of more than 1,200 of the world’s top scientific authors and 2,500 scientific expert reviewers from more than 130 countries , which gives only 6 possible climate scenarios , ALL INCREASES , with 5 of the 6 scenarios between 2.4 increase and 4 degrees and the other a 1.8 increase
JOH , I meant to add , seeing Bolt won’t tell you , why I segegrated 5 scenarios at 2.4 or higher thats because between 2 and 3 degres the CC is irresverisble NO 2nd chanses for th world Await your answer
just posted this in reply to JoM
“hey andy
when the CC happens
you and all the deniers can huddle around your bum
I mean the sunshines out of it
well doesnt it?”
wonder if it will make it.
Ron it is not irresverisble! Why are then China and India prepared to damn the world by not doing anything about alleged CC?
Why haven’t any of the predictions come true? Where is aramgeddon?
John of Melbourne
#425
Please do avoid my simple queston i asked in #425 , with another queston
I await your answer , then i’ll be happy to answer your queston & will do so properley
typo KOH ,
Please do NOT avoid my simple queston i asked in #425 , with another queston
I await your answer , then i’ll be happy to answer your queston & will do so properley
Ron I do not believe cabon dioxide by itself is soley responsible for global warming. I fail to see a causal relationship with man made carbon dioxide emissions and climate change; as noted by Bolt although our emissions keep increasing the climate has not gotten warmer.
JOH
still did not answer my #425 You simply brought up man to CO2 is not a causel realionship to CC
That is not the same as my question do you believe all scientists in #431
patiuent am i , I will addres your separate point of the relationship man , CO2 and temperature increase
1,200 of the world’s top scientific authors and 2,500 scientific expert reviewers from more than 130 countries state ” it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century.”
.
(IF yoiu want to know what ‘very likely’ is its a scientyific term = to 90% PLUS chance For a layman without that responsibility its =100%)
So i’ve answered your causel argument doubt , do you beleve the above 3,700 worldss best sciientists conclusion ?
Ron how many ways do I have to say no?
Ron I to am a scientist an engineer infact. Throughout my schooling and my time as an engineer I have never heard, seen nor read that the term, “very likely” can be expressed quantitatively therefore can you please explain to me how you came up with the the figure of 90% to explain the term very likely?
JoM @ 431 -
although our emissions keep increasing the climate has not gotten warmer
So the fact the 8 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 10 years, that glaciers are disappearing for the first time in recorded human history and beginning after the start of the industrial revolution, that the North Pole is expected to be ,a href=”http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/jun/27/north-pole-may-be-ice-free-september/”>ice free in September for only the second time in 50+ million years (the first was, briefly, in 2000) are just figments of imagination or coincidence?
Take 2
JoM @ 431 -
although our emissions keep increasing the climate has not gotten warmer
So the fact the 8 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 10 years, that glaciers are disappearing for the first time in recorded human history and beginning after the start of the industrial revolution, that the North Pole is expected to be ice free in September for only the second time in 50+ million years (the first was, briefly, in 2000) are just figments of imagination or coincidence?
JOH
“Ron how many ways do I have to say no?”
Well once would do JOH I asked you for an answer to #425 yes or no , BUT You did not answer I asked you a different queastion in #432 yes or no , BUT You did not answer
so its no use getting upset bacause an ilerate person like me (who read th IPPCC Reports) asks you a queston you ar uncomfortable in answering
JOH “Ron how many ways do I have to say no” Is not an answer either If you want to say “no #425″ AND “no #432″ justt simply do so I await your answer ??
.
.
“Ron I to am a scientist an engineer infact Throughout my schooling and my time as an engineer I have never heard, seen nor read that the term, “very likely” can be expressed quantitatively”
Well why do you not read the IPPCC Report done by 3,700 of th Worlds top scientists because they use th term , in fact the term ‘very likely’ is used repeatedly Other times ‘likely’ is used , other times “more likely than not’ is used When the IPCC ascribes a likelihood to a scientific finding, the term used reflects a specific range of certainty as defined by a chart with “very likey” defined as 90% PLUS chance
Await your clarification
If CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing at 2ppm annually, and CO2 is the agent which is responsible for locking in the earth’s heat, then surely any measures to halt the rise, whatever the cause, is vital to the survival of life on earth.
433
John of Melbourne
avoids answering Ron’s question
Is apparently ignorant of probability and confidence levels
bah
So JOM, do you need 100% proof before you think we do anything?
none so blind…
Jovial Monk @ 438
Ditto
Diog @ 322
Has anyone discussed how they plan to keep the RAH operating as a hospital, whilst removing all of the asbestos – (particularly in the sections built in the late 50’s and 60’s)?
These days the views of creationsist are ignored. No one even bothers to diss them. So why are some of you trying to bother talking with global warming skeptics? Don’t waste your breath, they are dinosaurs! (Dinosaurs didn’t die in Noah’s flood by the way).
Dinosaurs didn’t die in Noah’s flood by the way
No, they never existed, the Deity just spread some big bones about to fool us. Everyone knows that
“very likey” defined as 90% PLUS chance. Are the skeptics saying they have 100% proof CC is BS or are they saying more than likely or very likely it is? In which case JOH’s objection to “very likely” applies to his anti CC argument as well.
In other news. News Ltd are sh1tt1ng themselves. The propaganda will soon start in full force. The players should not let themselves be duped.
Apparently, from what I have been told (I am not a lawyer), league contracts are not worth the paper they are written on. They are all constructed around a salary cap, which is a restraint of trade, and therefore all contracts are unconstitutional.
I have never believed in the saying “what goes around comes around” but we have had a GST and now an ETS, the wedge on Tampa and now a wedge on CC, and now a superleague on superleague. Oh yeah!
445- And they are talking about arresting the player. When was the last time someone was arrested for failing to deliver a civil contract? I know a lot of builders who would be in deeper doo doo than Sonny Bill then. It’s a civil matter and that is where it is likely to stay. (You can be arrested for breaking a court order in a civil matter however, but I still can’t see an extridiction happening to get a guy to play football).
Grace
There are architects plans which allow for the asbestos. I think most is in the East Wing which is not going to be altered.
Yes Fairman, the propaganda has just started LOL. Apparently other players are being targeted?
This is a non-Newspoll week, right?
“Liquor industry accused of distorting alcohol figures”.
“Earlier today the Distilled Spirits Industry Council (DSIC) said new data showed an increase in the volume of alcohol sold since the introduction of the so-called alcopops tax and urged the Government to reconsider it.
It says sales of pre-mixed drinks are down 30 per cent, but sales of full-strength bottles of spirits are up 46 per cent from April to June.
However, tax office figures released this afternoon by the Government show sales of pre-mixed drinks have gone down by 54 per cent, with total sales of all spirits down by 23 per cent.”
Now who to believe?
Wrong, BSF.
Can I clarify something on the philosophy of science.
Science can NEVER prove a theory, unless it’s a mathematical proof. Science only verifies or disproves theories. To verify or disprove a theory takes evidence. It’s like proving guilt beyond reasonable doubt which is really just a level of probability with which the jury is comfortable.
At the moment, the jury (the IPCC) says there is a 95% chance that global warming is happening and is due to human activity, rather than the observations of climate being due to other factors (random changes, solar flares, normal variations etc).
So people like Bolt who say human-caused CC is not happening are 95% likely to be wrong, ie there is a 1 in 20 chance he is right (which probably is true for most things he says).
There is a 5% chance that Ron, Jen, etc etc are wrong.
Fielding saying he might block the alcopop rise. I sure that will go down with well with the rest of the fundies.
If they don’t pass legalisation authorising it, the funds actually have to be returned to the taxpayer….. perhaps a giant booze up is in order. (In the end, it will be retro applied by different legalisation if the bill is defeated or else it will be chaotic to the point of craziness).
451 – Time flies when the Liberals are having no fun.
Amigo ronnie, i hope this is not the end of our beautiful friendship.
I have to disagree with you on the selfishness of China and India. Yes the great satan USA is selfish. they simply want to maintain their standard of living and DGAF about everyone else.
Whereas China and India, the majority of people there are still too poor to be selfish. As survival is still the primary focus of living. Rich man eats whenever he wants, poor man whenever he can.
In addition, China and India are big emitters because:
1. their huge population which will take long long time to reduce, if ever. unless we start culling Chinese and Indians. I remember Mao called the USA a paper tiger (with the nuke bombs) by offering Dwight Eisenhower as to how many cities and million of Chinese that the USA wanted to nuke and cull.
2. China and India are still the factories of the world. making cheap goods for the developed countries so that we can enjoy our standard of living. We are the one that still polluting, not them.
BSF
No funds will be returned, there is a precendent for this, a tax increase on beer was knocked back by the Senate.
The Govt. of the day set up a “community fund” to distribute the tax.
Although Stephen Riden is as usual confused.
“If the Senate doesn’t authorise the collection of this matter the manufacturers and the wholesalers have the right to go to court to claim it back,”
“They have paid the tax, they are the ones who have sent the cheques. They do have rights under the tax and customs act.
Er no Stephen they have collected the tax – not paid it.
“Jan 19, 2001 – Australia’s biggest brewers have taken the government to court to recover excess taxes that drinkers have been paying for six months.
They want to be repaid tens of millions of dollars in beer excise should the Senate scrap existing increases in the tax. The money could be poured back into drinkers’ glasses through cheaper beer, or donated to charities.
Drinkers have been paying a doubled excise rate, plus a sales tax, since July 1. The price of draft beer increased as much as 11%, while the tax on packaged beer was up only 1.9%. The tax increase was introduced as a “tariff proposal,” a provision instrument by which the government imposes a tax increase on the condition that it will legislate within 12 months to make it legal.
However, the Australian Democrats and Labor have said they will scrap the excise increase in the Senate. Both parties say the government promised in the 1998 election campaign that tax reform would increase the price of beer by just 1.9%. ”
The more things change – the more they stay the same.
I still prefer a giant booze up.
….
slap
William, any idea if Mr Mumbles will be visited by that newspoll truck again tonight?
Isn’t there a flaw in the alcopop vs spirits argument? As I said before, sales to not equal consumption.
Alcopops are usually consumed immediately. A bottle of spirits isn’t. A party-goer who switches from alcopops to spirits will buy a bottle of vodka and rum for example. They don’t drink them all on the same night. There will be plenty of those half drunk bottles on their shelves waiting for the next party. So after the initial glut of extra purchases of spirits, there should be a levelling out at a lower amount.
Ron it’s JoM not JoH!
I am examining the IPCC report at the minute and yes you are correct the IPCC use a likelihood terminology to indicate the “probability” of the occurance/outcome. Had you expressed it like that I would have understood.
In relation to your questions:
# 425 I believe Bolt.
# 432 I am yet to be convinced by the scientist (follow link below)
Ron I refer you and otthers on this site to the technical summary ecspecially TS.6 Robust Findings and Uncertainties http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_TS.pdf
Makes for interesting reading
Diogenes,
Absolutely. The interesting question is why is the Alcohol Industry is fighting this so hard. Probably because it affects their profits???
It seems there is a statistics war atm between the government and the industry.
Now who do you believe?
Exhibit 1. Makes their living entirely from selling alcohol products.
Exhibit 2. Makes part of their living from the selling of alchohol products.
The Alcohol industry are probably concerned that they are about to come under the same scrutiny as the Tobacco Industry.
Diogenoski
#452
“So people like Bolt who say human-caused CC is not happening are 95% likely to be wrong. There is a 5% chance that Ron is wrong”
You probabley smiled when you types that knowing in i’d come Biolte has one quack at 95% chance of being wrong and i’ve got 3,700 of th Worlds top scientists EACH saying there’s a 95% chance of being right as a level of certainty IF my first 1,000 scientists have th 95% , whats the use of my other 2,700 troops in adding a little premium , now one cann’t get 100% but reckon the quack got over rated at 5% & i don’t want them deniers to hav anything to hang onto , reckon most of that quacks 5% is nil & the 5% is “not 100% sure”
There is no doubt that the rich countries and rich individuals within countries, generally got that way and stay that way by a disproportionate per capita contribution to CO2 emissions. The usual caveats and qualifications apply.
There is also no doubt that the poor countries and poor individuals within wealthy countries, are, and will, generally suffer more proportionately from the effects of increased concentrations of CO2. Thus the 800 million who, according to the UN figures, last year went to bed somewhat hungry each night are now going to bed somewhat hungrier because of the increased price impact of biofuels and droughts. The UN figure for children who actually died of starvation is up towards five million. Of course, UN figures can be quite dodgy but there is a core of truth there. The relatively rich will explain that there is plenty of food but that some people are hungry because of poor distribution of the available food supplies. Quite.
However, some of the relatively rich are starting to get a bit agitated because they understand that it is not only the relatively poor who are going to suffer but that all bets might be off for the relatively rich as well. Now, that really would be nasty. They are beginning to think that there is a Titanic-type situation and know, with reasonable confidence as per discussion above, that (a) once the water gets over the first bulkhead (aka one of the irreversible thresholds), the ship is stuffed, (b) there aren’t enough lifeboats and (c) in any case, the available lifeboats won’t have anywhere much to go.
Nevetheless, many of the powerful rich in countries like Russia, the US, Australia, China, India and Japan are betting that while they might get a bit warm, they won’t be the ones to get really scorched. Quite rightly, they calculate that, at the very least, they will be last ones to be feeling the heat. So they are happy with any delays in action and absolutely delighted with the do nothing populist tactics of politicians in various countries who are, in effect, saying: ‘You poor (Australian, Indian, Chinese – put in the name of any nation) punters can’t possibly be expected to do something off your own bat. Not fair on the struggling masses!’ The battlers ought to be suspicious that the parties generally held to be representing the wealthy are the ones running these lines. Will the punters be dudded again? I am very, very curious to see what happens next.
A bit of history – Bundy used to sell Bundy & Coke for a short period, they then decided it would be more profitable to sell Bundy & Cola. So they bought out a cola company so they could make profits on the Bundy and the Cola.
The Bundy company also sold its Cola to other RTD manufacturers and as “no frills” cola in supermarkets.
The spirits industries were making a squillion from cola, strawberry fizz, peach fuzz etc. That is why they are squeaking now.
JoM
sorry for wrong name , i could throw some info now to rebut , but as you’ve quoted that secton i should reply re that specificaly as well , will refresg the secton & come back to you
JoM
By th way as a matter of curiosity , why ar Turnbull & Horatio implementing a CC policy ? Why do they not believe Bolt that th world is not warming ?
Cheers Ron
Swannie told the liquor Industry they could go jump lol
Yes Vera, you don’t have to make your party laugh in Q.T. to be a good treasurer.
Could a country like Russia be blamed for not giving a rats about Global Warming. I mean, you could freeze the balls off over there?
“I fail to see a causal relationship with man made carbon dioxide emissions and climate change”
I like how the arguement used by climate change deniers mirrors that by the tobacco lobby about lung cancer. But then (with the help of Andrew Bolt), I was led to this group of nutters:
http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=10594
It all makes sense now.
You could freeze you balls off in the eastern states at the moment.
464 ron
JoM could use your arguments the other way round. There are 3700 of the “world’s top scientists” “each and every one” who says there is a 5% chance that man-made climate change is not happening. The reasons for that 5% uncertainty are in the IPCC report JoM linked.
You’ve got to laugh: the Liberal Party in 2008 is in favour of teenage binge drinking, fat profits for the petrol companies and the continuation of global warming: Nelson is even more backward looking than Howard, if that’s possible LOL
475 Prog, yes, but a woman form Narellan thinks Kevin Rudd cares more about China’s economy than Australias.
(And you just know Nelson wouldn’t make that story up)
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24086175-7583,00.html
Hey Progressive 475,
Where’s the concern troll angle in that post? You’ve disguised it cleverly.
Was “the woman from Narellan” Pat Farmers mum?
Diogenoski
yes i know its there ! it just seems alittle inequitable that a 95% chance by each & every one of of 3,700 top scientiists & a 5% chnace of not being man made because science obviously can not give 100% , allows a single scientist th 5 % argument (and Bolt it) Anyway 95% should be enough for objective
There is uncertainty in all science. If you can’t handle accepting some uncertainty, then you will never be certain about anything.
Why is it that climate change denial is ultimately just another form of extremist post modernist relativism? Andrew Bolt should be lecturing about Foucault in some French cultural studies department, rather than giving hilarious interpretations of scientific data.
I just love how Milne thinks Nelson telling him a story about some woman contitutes “evidence”.
Amigo FINNS
No end will occur mate , amigos will always ride Trying to address the nuances of world politcs & CC vs Kyoto is a deep hole The US are the ultimate selfish country , were the biggest emmitters & hav got th standard of living benefits from th CO2 up in th atmosphere PRES Bush actively supports th ‘G8 +5” GED’ and sent his reps to it & opposes Kyoto When I broughtt this subject up elswhere saying da man also suports this aproach I got howled down & my risk to Kyoto’s existense point was missed in partisan da man suport ,despite his written policy NOT mentioning at all ratyfyng Kyoto BUT specifically supporting the “G8+5” forum , in fact it also calls it th ‘GED’ Th othr POTUS candidate also supports th G8+5 ‘GED’ & opposes ratifying Kyoto as well In my view most of th blame here is th selfish US and its power hungry politcians
There ar 2 poker games happening Under Kyoto presently India & China are legaly bound by a post 2012 emmissions deal is to be negotiated Th Kyoto protocols provide for ‘less developed countries’ (those that contributed less to CO2 up there) eg India & China) to get LOWER targets post 2012 So if the US ratifies Kyoto , India & China will get emmission targets , that they probabley calculate is HIGHER than they’d prefer as they naturally want to look aftr there econamy to th maximum( but because of being ‘less developed’ there targets will be LOWER than say th EU or the US) They’d probabley wear that…reluctantly I assume
But th US does not like that Kyoto poker game , because th US says selfishly that means India & China get a competittive edge with those ‘less developed countries’ lower emmissions targets , well they woul, d but th US is being selfish on competive grounds So th bully boy US says we just will not suport ratifying Kyoto (Bush AND th 2 curent candidates) , unless India & China from day one hav the same emmssions target criteria as th US , plainly that’s unfair & th US damn well knows India & China would never agree So th US and its politicans instead like a bully supports a competing non Kyoto forum the G8 +5 , because the US emmissions targets will be lower (because there’s no scientists scenarios there to restrict them & only th US will decide Indian , China & Russia also can hav lower targets in such a forum than th ‘less developed country’ lower targets they’d get under Kyoto ALL hav an econamic insentive to get out of Kyoto , and th US an incentive not to go into Kyoto Th US has opened th door for themselves to avoid Kyoto , but th carrot is there for India China & Russia to get out of Kyoto
Summary , I believe China & India should stay in Kyoto , get the ‘less developed country’ emmissions targets dispensations & the US should ratify Kyoto and join the rest of the world under th scientists scenarios pressures , to CC is solved
Coldest day for time of year here since 1963 but we’re getting some steady rain as well so I shouldn’t bitch.
Me, a concerned troll? You must be mistaking me with Lose The Election Please, is he still around? LOL
Grog: The Poisoned Dwarf is as predictable as ever! It’s a shame that his anti-Labor drivel gets so much prominence in the Monday News Ltd rags!
Newspoll 57-43
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24093309-601,00.html
Newspoll post up.