The West Australian, which has been gunning hard for the removal of Troy Buswell from the Liberal leadership for the past week, has published a “snap” Westpoll survey of 400 votes showing the Liberals would lead 57-43 on two-party preferred if Colin Barnett was leader. It also finds they would be in front even with Buswell at the helm, but only by 51-49. One normally likes to exercise caution in interpreting poll results, but I think it can be stated with confidence that the latter finding is definitely wrong. This means we can either dismiss the poll as rubbish and pay it no further mind, or take the view that the six-point difference says something enormously significant about the Liberal leadership even if it does come from a dud sample. Excitingly, the paper reports that the election “could be called as early as tomorrow”.
UPDATE: Click here for a timely trip down memory lane, back to a month before the 2005 election.
UPDATE 2: The following questions are not meant to indicate a conspiratorial mindset: they are merely questions that have sprung to my mind, as questions sometimes do.
• What do the dashes following “don’t know” indicate? That all but a statistically insignificant number of respondents did know, or that those who didn’t have been excluded from the calculation?
• Why would you lump “informal” together with “other”, rather than with “don’t know”?
• Given that this has been done, we can ascertain that the “others” vote is less than 4 per cent under Buswell, or less than 2 per cent under Barnett. This compares with 11.2 per cent at the 2005 election and between 8 per cent and 12 per cent in the past six Newspoll surveys. The Greens vote at least is in the ballpark of the 2005 election, down only from 7.6 per cent to 7 per cent (The West Australian rarely provides figures for the Greens, but on the four occasions it has done so in the previous year they have been between 8 per cent and 11 per cent). In the current political environment, would we really expect the combined major party vote to have shot from 81.2 per cent at the election to either 88 per cent (under Buswell) or 89 per cent (under Barnett)? The two Newspoll surveys this year have had it at 80 per cent and 76 per cent.
• Shouldn’t we expect the 7 per cent of respondents who would vote Coalition under Barnett but not Buswell to be largely parking their votes with minor parties or independents, rather than going straight for Labor?
UPDATE 3 (28/7/08): Robert Taylor in The West Australian:
Troy Buswell will not step side and Colin Barnett will not challenge for the Liberal leadership despite overwhelming evidence that the Cottesloe MP is the party’s best chance of defeating Alan Carpenter’s Labor Government at the coming election. Mr Barnett again made it clear yesteday that he was availbale to lead the Liberals despite having already announced his retirement at the next election. But Mr Buswell was adamant that no one had asked him to step down in favour of the former Opposition leader and he intended continuing in the role. And Mr Buswell received strong support from Liberal Party president Barry Court, who clutched a Bible as he said the chair-sniffing, bra-snapping Opposition Leader had shown strength to push through his problems and was beginning to have an impact on the Government in the polls.
UPDATE 4 (29/7/08): Peter Kennedy reports on ABC TV news that “Labor strategists have put a plan to the Premier” for an election on September 13 or September 20, thereby preventing the resumption of parliament in two weeks.
UPDATE 5 (4/8/08): Buswell quits.
232 Comments
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“The West is just pissed off that their Golden Boy Troy turned out to be nothing more than a 40 plus “Schoolie”
”
Which was flamin’ obvious to anyone with the brains of a stunned herring long before he ascended to the leadership.
As for the govt being on the nose on so many issues, I really don’t think so. I work in the relatively conservative world of engineering and I rarely hear the govt mentioned in a negative light or the opposition in a positive one. Indeed, I can’t remember a time when state politics in general was a less common topic of conversation in the world beyond the ‘net.
I’m not sure what this actually signifies. Maybe people have abandoned all interest in the subject in despair at the general standard of our state pollies. Or maybe they’ve decided that the Opposition are so dreadful right now that there’s no point getting worked up about the forthcoming election.
Whatever the case, I don’t see a state that, not so very many years ago, comprehensively turfed the generally unpleasant but at least halfway competent Court government electing Tory Thugswell and Co, many of whom manage to combine deep personal unpalatability with a perceived level of ability and political maturity that would shame a primary school class.
“We’re all political junkies, and that nearly always goes with a party preference.” As with you Buster old boy and just what is that preference of yours?
Buster, don’t worry about that poor little sycophant Gary. According to him the worst thing about the Rudd government is the PM’s hairstyle (I’m serious!).
“A sycophant (from the Greek ?????????? sykophánt?s) is a servile person who, acting in his or her own self interest, attempts to win favor by flattering one or more influential persons, with an undertone that these actions are executed at the cost of his or her own personal pride, principles, and peer respect.”
A-C please explain how Gary is a sycophant? Surely this derogatory term is better suited to previous members of various conservative Governments.
53 A-C – LOL, I must have it a few home runs against you with the anger you’re showing. Let me quote one of your fellow conservative pals “grow up”.
it = hit
Buster
“We’re all political junkies, and that nearly always goes with a party preference.”
I think you will find many here quite prepared to criticise on policies rather than parties.
Not being from WA I don’t know what is happening there but Frank, Jasmine and Fulvio give nice commentaries on what seems to be the mood and it is not always pro labor.
But if Carpenter has to call a snap election due to the leadership woes in the libs it may be that he is not traveling as well as you say.
Similar with Bligh in QLD, she acknowledge herself that the political mood on QLD can be very quick to change and she is facing a historic test of being the first female premier elected to office. Female leaders of government in Carnell, Follet and Martin have been elected in the territories but none at a state or federal level.
54 ruawake – thanks for that. As we can see A-C has difficulties in more ways than one.
“But if Carpenter has to call a snap election due to the leadership woes in the libs it may be that he is not traveling as well as you say.” What type of logic is this? He’s doing poorly so he calls a snap election? He has a rabble for an opposition so he waits until the last minute? I’m missing something.
“Similar with Bligh in QLD, she acknowledge herself that the political mood on QLD can be very quick to change and she is facing a historic test of being the first female premier elected to office.”
Beattie used to say he was going to struggle at the upcoming election and we see what happened there.
“Female leaders of government in Carnell, Follet and Martin have been elected in the territories but none at a state or federal level.” It’s never been done before therefore it in improbable? More strange logic.
Opposition leaders often use the “early election scare” to shore up their leadership – if you dump me it will force an election etc etc.
In States without fixed terms this will always be the case. Capt. Bligh has said she has no intention of calling an early election, has Carpenter said anything?
Nope, only a story in the Sunday Times, as well as speculation from The West.
Story here:
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24082437-5017005,00.html
So given that elections rarely occur in Dec-Jan it looks like the normal timeframe would be Oct-Nov.
So Carpenter only has 4 weeks to call an “early” election.
Traditionally they’re held in February, as I believe the Education Dept don’t allow access to School facitlites for polling booths during schol holidays for security reasons.
I think Buster and the Intellectual Bogan are both onto something. The fact that we are all here discussing this stuff makes us somewhat unusual. I LOVE elections – from what I can tell, a significant part of the electorate find them an inconvenience at best and a downright imposition at worst. I have been an electoral junkie since my teenage years – you can imagine how that went down with the ladies!
Anyways – I work in a normally conservative field which is rather over-represented in the parliamentary classes… and most of the comments I am hearing regarding politics is that my colleagues would LOVE to have an alternative at the State level that they could actually bring themselves to vote for. They are reluctant to vote ALP and are no fans of the current government (and certainly wouldn’t be what anyone would consider natural Labor voters in any event) but can’t bring themselves to vote for such an incompetent and downright offensive Opposition. So where does that leave them…??? Many of them are considering minor parties but are reluctant to go down that path too… I suspect many of them will return to the fold and vote Lib eventually anyways but it’ll pain them to do it.
The Nationals ?
Lol
WA has the best State Government by far
When a lot of the major projects start to be completed and begin in the next few years people will truly start to realise
The social reforms and massive infrastructure projects will place Gallop and Carpenter higher than Sir Charles Court in history.
Robert Taylor in The West Australian:
And old Charlie must be spinning in his grave, while Margaret must be praying VERY hard in the Victory Life Centre
http://www.victorylifecentre.com.au/statement.htm
This is so tiresome – can we just get a reliable poll?
It’s like watching idiots make a fool of themselves in the street, mildly amusing at first, but you rapidly get bored of it and want it to stop, and after a while, it becomes a nuisance…
A reliable poll would be interesting, but it certainly won’t be published in the West.
Paul Murray would be unable to bring himself to reveal information suggesting that his continual attacks on McGinty et al have failed to register with the electorate, or haven’t been reinforced by an even slightly competent opposition.
So that just leaves the Murdoch press…
As for the early election – Carpenter has bleated about a troublesome upper house, and regardless of when the election is, the MLCs all stay put until May? Will this have any bearing on his decision? Or is it less about passing legislation, and entirely about kicking the Lbs while they’re down?
Why does the West Australian bother? A sample of 400 is ridiculously small, given the diversity of WA electorates. The MOE must be just about high enough to make reliable conclusions about the meaning of the data impossible. Knowing the West’s propensity for journalistic shortcuts, they likely sent a junior reporter down to the cafes of Cottesloe to ask people who look like they own uranium shares what they thought.
I am curious – it is sometime until News Limited publish a WA Newspoll isn’t it?
There are a couple of possibilities, firstly the Govt would know lib factional issues more intimately than me. Is it possible they, the Libs, are stupid enough to spend a couple of weeks making themselves look less organised and electable?
Dear Leader Carps might be waiting for greater uncertainty and confusion. Also each week of phony campaign makes it harder for the libs to credibly change pre-selections.
Secondly there must be internal Govt polling.
I don’t buy law and order as an issue. Carps and Ginty are effectively a liberal government on law and order. No left wing bleeding hearts there (although occasionally responsible Ministers remember some social conscience and respond badly to press requests and forget to reiterate the tough line on everyone law and order wise, not too often even though those lefty roots run deep and long and are actually based on criminology as opposed to irrational responses – opps bias alert).
However I have a feel that hip-pocket issues are biting in an anti-govt way, not supported by anything scientific or sound, and all the experts are talking landslide, but the woman and man on my street aren’t happy. I think Colin and a couple of ‘rifts healed’ press releases (regardless of the reality) could cause serious enough concern for the Govt to be worried, but obviously they don’t and aren’t, or there was something preventing them move …
or could just be I’m impatient and the Governor will get a visit sometime this week.
Just checked centerbet
Labor 1.80
Coalition 1.95
It is getting close
Taken from the same sample as the westpoll
TV stations were (last week) taking very hush-hush bookings from ALP for ad space from Aug 1. So I hear.
#73
Dovif to which election betting are you referring? The odds on centrebet for the WA Election are:
LABOR 1.18
COALITION 4.25
Or are you being obscurely sarcastic?
I think he’s just being ‘tongue-in-cheek’. I wouldn’t say sarcasm fits… I had a laugh, though.
we would be waiting for the libs to blow out to 9 or 10 wouldn’t we, assuming the labor landslide people are right?
In reply to
Antony Green 43
Stay tuned. There are more changes on the way as to how we count votes in the Senate and other. The aim is to simplify the counting process and to do away with the distortion in the value of the votes created by the method used to calculate the surplus transfer value.
The other change under consideration is a reiterative count where the count is re-started following every exclusion. This will do away with the segmentation system currently in use and by default takes into consideration of “optional voting” as the quota is re-calculated on each reiteration. The count continues until all vacancies are filled without the need for further exclusions. The last reiteration determining the results of the election.
This proposal was submitted to the Victorian EMC last week and will be presented to the JSCEM next month.
More information here
Further Information
Having briefly read schedule 1 on the WA Electoral Act
The WA legislation is similar the system proposed above in so far that it seeks to implement a value based Surplus Transfer System (Surplus/Candidates Total value of votes * value of the vote). This is one small but significant step in the right direction BUT it needs to go a few more steps forward
The proposed “Wright system” seeks to replace the segmentation of the ballot (Which produces all kinds of distortions in the results of the election and replace it with a reiterative count. Votes from minor candidates can be included and form part of the surplus of other candidates, the order of exclusion being more significant then the order of election. As votes are transferred any candidates that receive a total value equal or greater then the quota is provisionally declared elected. The results of the election being declared following the last reiteration.
I not also with interest and some amusement that the WA legislation provides for the publication of the electronic data files that the VEC in relation to it primary counts clams have been “destroyed” and overwritten (A statement that that is highly questionable and in doubt – more like a deliberate attempt to mislead and avoid scrutiny of the results) In any event scrutineers and the public will not have to wait until 3 months have elapsed to obtain this important information. Hopefully polling place data will also be made available on election night as and when it be`comes available and not according to the needs and requirements of certain media commentators whose interest is not in the scrutiny of the poll but in the theatrics of election night. This information is essential to a proper scrutiny of an electronic computerised count. (along with statistics on Postal, Prepoll, absentee and section votes issues and received back)
enjoy.
I’m sorry Senate watch, your language can be extraordinarily imprecise. Are you saying that you are proposing changes or that there ‘are’ changes on the way? Because I find it very hard to believe that anyone is about to adopt an iterative process.
And one final point, you might have a little more luck convincing people of your points if you didn’t go out of your way to be completely offensive to anyone and everyone else in the country who has some vague ability to understand what you are talking about.
It is a re-iterative process.
a yes I believe there is support for int. I note that you have no comments as to the merits or otherwise, But as I have stated I am more interested in the scrutiny and audit of the count and not those that make false and misleading statements that seek to cover up and gloss over obvious mistakes in the process of the count. Tell me if x number of voters vote in an election then how many votes should their be and if the number of total votes in the first count do not equal the number of total votes in the second count (Some 500 odd votes GOP missing say) and the information and statistics in relation to the vote are not published or as some claim have been “deleted”: or “overwritten” what does that say about the process of the count. Surely the Electoral Authority should produce stats on the number of postal votes, pre-poll votes, absentee and second votes and publish these as and when they become available? Should not this information be readily available and published prior to the final counting of the votes. And should not the data files that are transcribed be also published in an open transparent system? I would love to know exactly where and why votes went missing in Victoria. And do you honestly believe that a professionally run IT department would not maintain copies and backup of data files? a bi9t liek teh false statements that publishing teh upperhouse resulst woudl slow down the lower house count. BS..
A reiterative count is by far a better option then the seriously flawed paper based Surplus transfer value and Segmented distribution. WA got rid of one part now is the time to exclude the other.
And yes there is support for a reiterative count.. I wonder what the ABC position is? LOL
I very much doubt the ABC has a position on the use of a re-iterative count.
Now, now – there’s no need for this to get antagonistic. Besides – this is a thread on the Westpoll and WA election prospects in general.
I’m not sure WA counts much in a close election, the farce we have before us seems unlikely to count that much.
If the Govt wins big and doesn’t get the LC then nothing really changes except a few seats and the New Carps Faction is seated.
I doubt the ABC get it right on many occasion.
Here is one comment we have received in response to the proposed electoral reform, reform which WA has partially adopted.
“Clearly this addresses the “captured surpluses” issue of the 2007 Senate
Election here in Victoria, but wouldn’t you improve the system even further
in a computerised count if you recalculated the quota each time a candidate
was eliminated and did a complete recount from the start as it would more
accurately reflect the distribution of both preferences (i.e. a voter is
effectively denied the choice of effectively voting for an elected
candidate if the voter’s 2nd preference is only distributed after their 2nd
choice has been declared elected!). This would also help address the
current problem in the NSW Upper House in particular, but also in Tasmania
and the ACT where the last elected person(s) often come in with an
effective quota well below those earlier elected.” -(Name withheld)
The system of a reiterative count address exactly the issues raised above. It provides for a more accurate and reflective count as it seeks to remove the distortion and bias null into the system that is currently in place., A reiterative count is the way forward to addressing this issue.
Having thought of numerous responses, I’ll say nothing in the end, as I don’t wish to wear out Williams patience or bandwidth.
Is SenateWatch the same guy as Melbcity- the one who wrote about 10,000 posts attacking the head of the VEC??
Peter Kennedy on ABC TV news reports that “Labor strategists have put a plan to the Premier” for an election on September 13 or September 20, thereby preventing the resumption of parliament in two weeks.
that is interesting it is 4 weeks sooner than the labor rumor I heard
And also just before School holidays and the Royal Show as well, and no doubt designed to prevent the Libs blooding a new leader and leaving Buswell as a sacrificial lamb.
Expect the opposition to meet in a broom cupboard.
Well, at least there is no chance of finals football to get in the way.
MDMConnell #87:
Yes, yes he is (or so I believe). “Senate Watch” is, indeed, the same virulently anti-Green, pro-Coalition person who once posted under the name “MelbCity”.
Mathew, I’m sure he can and will speak for himself, but I don’t believe he’s “pro-Coalition”.
As to the Westpoll, I have only this to say:
Thank God that we, the voters of WA, have the West Australian to act as an Opposition, no matter how laughable, inept or self-contradictory they can be at times.
At least they’re trying to do the job, unlike the Liberals.
William #93:
Noted. I will moderate my rhetoric henceforth.
I didn’t mean for it to be taken that way, Mathew – it’s just that I’m pretty sure that our friend is or has been aligned with the ALP.
Could a September election really be possible? Wouldnt COAG give Carps the chance to look Premierly? Negotiate some great deal for WA and eliminate the fears of folks who dont like ALP State & Federal. Wouldnt the Regional Parliament be a great chance to win over Bunbury? Wouldnt queueing to vote in rainy September irritate people? Besides they want to decimate the opposition without looking mercenary & over-confident.
Post Newspaper article on Barnett saying he will be quitting.
http://www.postnewspapers.com.au/20080802/news/005.shtml
Rebecca Carmody has reported on ABC Radio that Troy Buswell will quit as Liberal leader in the next few days.
and here’s the article:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/04/2323098.htm?section=justin
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