The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead back up to 57-43 after two fortnights at 55-45. No figures yet provided to back up its headline “Costello wanted as leader”. Hat tip yet again to James J.
UPDATE: Graphic here. It shows Peter Costello’s rating as preferred Liberal leader up to 41 per cent from 23 per cent in April (wrongly labelled in the graphic as April 2007), Brendan Nelson up from 15 per cent to 18 per cent and Malcolm Turnbull down from 25 per cent to 24 per cent – bearing in mind that 19 per cent has been freed up because Julie Bishop and Tony Abbott were not included in the question this time.
UPDATE 2 (31/7/08): Further attitudinal polling, including the finding that the Prime Minister is 3 per cent less experienced than he was six months ago.
UPDATE 3: Suggested Newspoll question format for next time: Is Rudd experienced? Has he ever been experienced?
1,444 Comments
A nice present for the coalition for their get together tomorrow.
The headline is a bit misleading as there is no figures on Costello in the report. This could change tomorrow I think.
The punters still support Rudd on CC. Full steam ahead.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24093309-601,00.html
Within last fortnights moe
Bring out the packer-wacker the poor Doc is flatlining.
Good call BSF
yes JoM, I bet that’ll console Nelson tonight.
Hey, Nelson will prove you all wrong and win government in 2010 on an anti ETS platform, so says Glen Milne, how can we doubt him?
And pigs might fly also(Progressive sniggers to himself).
How will News Ltd and Shamaham spin this one tomorrow? This doesn’t follow their script of a government on the nose and a resurgent Liberal Party.
Grog: Hey, at least Nelson is more popular than Gordon Brown, that’s something he can console himself with LOL
moe = move or else?
Peter “I am a procrastinator” Costello will suffer the same fate as Gordon Brown, namely a DUD.
Clearly the honeymoon is over and Rudd is a one term government
The Shanahan didnt come out of his cave last time, these figures must be breaking his heart.
Can News Ltd be any more blatant in their hard-on for Costello?
Isn’t Pete swinging in a hammock in the pacific on holidays?
4 JoM
…which was within the MOE of the week before no doubt…
and?
Also
Are we playing bingo on the first article to mention the honeymoon tonight?
We’ve got enough medicos in here – what’s the statistical recognition of the placebo effect? Does 14% really actually represent statistical zero?
Does anyone know if the 14% is an identifiable cohort?
On the plus side – he’s been there so long that it’d be fair to say that so few people are listening to anything he’s saying that his jelly-snake performance on CC will be rapidly forgotten.
8: We already know how it’ll be spun. It’ll be about leadership. Nelson flatlining, and Costello favoured to take over.
OK Progressive, I am waiting for the promised punchline.
#12 – [Can News Ltd be any more blatant in their hard-on for Costello?] – so do you feel an erection is coming then? A DD maybe?
Well, the sub-editor’s given the game away. Nelson’s poor advisor is going to up half the night coming up with a game plan for the morning radio.
Yeah, about the same as when he was treasurer.
Red wombat @ 5 you crack me up
The Doc flatlining ….
Clear and packer wack, no response we’re losing him, clear and wack , can’t find a pulse, TOD 22.55
Paging Smirk, paging Smirk
“The oil company BP, known for thorough statistical analysis of energy markets, estimates that countries with subsidies accounted for 96 percent of the world’s increase in oil use last year — growth that has helped drive prices to record levels.
In most countries that do not subsidize fuel, high prices have caused oil demand to stagnate or fall, as economic theory says they should. But in countries with subsidies, demand is still rising steeply, threatening to outstrip the growth in global supplies.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/28/business/worldbusiness/28subsidy.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&th&emc=th
Horatio’s anti CC stanse is winning him suport in th boardrooms , but not with th punters Th poll will be music to silky toff Turnbull
Good one red wombat
Nelson will break through one day.
I’m so sick of the Costello question. Get over it media!
I don’t think it is winning support in board rooms. If you were on the board of BHP, would you prefer a trading scheme with major party bipartisan support, or a patchwork organised between Labor, the Greens and a couple of independents?
ShowsON
black humour ShowsOn , Horatio does not seem to win a trick
JoM
common John , tell us why Horatio & Turnbull believe in CC and do not agree with the CC denier Bolt ?
shows on… move operations to india where there is no ets and save
So companies are going to mine LNG and coal situated in Australia from India? Whatever.
Brenda and the Fibs are going so bad at the moment, that here is a golden opportunity for the first time for the Greens to show some responsible economic policy and start planning for a shot at opposition.
These are consistently the worst figures ever by any opposition. They are even going worse than Latham before he got the sack.
Ron, Bolt is not a denier just a realist. Temperatures had been rising that much is true but they have since plateaued and may even be decreasing even though we continue to pump more CO2 into the air. Non of the predictions by alarmists and their computer models has come true to date so we are ebtitled to ask wtf?
As for Turnbull (I don’t know who Horatio is) I don’t know what his caper is he used to be cool but he has changed too left.
Shows On I meant to say they will limit there exposure to Australia as a result of the ETS.
Joke of the year.
This is untrue. You are misrepresenting the fact in all probability the warming trend has continued over the last decade.
John
Horatio is Nelson Why does Nelson believe in CC (and hav a CC policy) and not agree with the CC denier Bolt ?
“Peter Costello has been looking for a job that pays a lot of money. Apparently, Australian businesses are yet to be convinced that the former treasurer can deliver value for big money. However, there is no impediment to Mr Costello going back to the Melbourne bar where he worked before becoming the Liberal member for Higgins”…………..can just see Cossie pulling p#ss at Young & Jacksons.
4 John – You are correct but the problem is no matter which way the polls go the MSM fail to recognise the MOE. The narrative won’t be positive for Nelson tomorrow.
tip & froth
29 & 31
http://www.aussmc.org/documents/waiting-for-global-cooling.pdf
Yeah, that’s why Petronas & Santos are investing in a $2.5 billion LNG plant in QLD, Origin is investing in a $2.5 billion coal seam gas plant in QLD, and why Inpex want to invest in a $10 billion LNG plant in the Darwin.
They’re not worried about an ETS, why are you?
“The Rudd government will reportedly step back from the hardline immigration policy of mandatory detention for asylum seekers.
The ABC on Monday night reported Immigration Minister Chris Evans is to announce sweeping changes to the policy in a speech in Canberra on Tuesday.
Senator Evans will announce a shift toward detaining only people who pose a risk to the community, the report said.
The government will also stop detaining asylum seekers for long periods and will offer legal assistance to those denied a visa.
Senator Evans will also announce the temporary closure of the $400 million detention centre built by the Howard government on Christmas Island.
Graham Thom of Amnesty International said the policy shift represented a fundamental change.”
http://news.smh.com.au/national/govt-to-ease-immigrant-detention-policy-20080728-3mdb.html
Not that I’m a great fan of the Essential Research Poll but they had Labor on 57 to 43 as well tonight on “Agenda”.
ShowsOn please read: http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/column_seven_graphs_to_end_the_warming_hype/
Oh and by the by (I’ve always wanted to use that in a sentence) I’m worried about the cost of an ETS because it will needlessly increase living costs. It would seem the ALP are similarly concerned since their giving out free credits to industries, even the unions are concerned. Why aren’t you?
John
Eleven of the last 12 years rank among the 12 hotest years on record (since 1850, when sufficient worldwide temperature measurements began).
How do you explain that
LOL!
Let me guess, next you will be sending me links to astrology pages, and will try to convince me it is cutting edge psychology.
John of Melbourne
The IPPCC report of the 3,700 Worlds top scientists concludes quote:
” that it is “unequivocal” that Earth’s climate is warming, “as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.”
The statement is unconditional
Whereas you believe Andrew Bolt whose sceientist says the World is not warming Frankly neither you or Andrew Bolt hav any credibility in the light of
this irrefutable evidence (even Nelson & Turnbull agree with th IPPCC)
Ron #41 Climate is a dynamic system it has changed before and will continue to change.
ShowsOn #42, lol I do like your analogy. I have one of my own about global warming fanatics who claim the world is going to end, none of their predictions have come true their claims have as much basis behind them as tarrot cards.
I dont understand why some Libs and Nats and other nuts and bolts are allowed to carry on about Australia getting ahead of other countries on emission controls. The EC and plenty of other countries have been moving on it for some time. It shows the dominance of US companies and media that such nonsense gets peddled here without getting laughed at.
The world is going to end one day, that is inevitable. Anyone who has a year 8 understanding of physics realises that, but it seems you don’t. The problem of climate change is to ensure that as much of Earth as possible is habitable by humans for as long as possible.
The fact you don’t even understand what the problem is doesn’t give me confidence in the webpages you give me links to. But I do thank you for the laugh.
ShowsOn yesterday it was global cooling today it is global warming I look forward to debating you and others on William’s Blog about the next scare tomorrow it will be global stagnation.
Will people please stop quoting Andrew Bolt as some kind of reputable source. He has no qulaifications in science whatsoever, and has been soundly discredited on the subject. Lobbing a few graphs together as some kind of proof against global warming is beyond a joke.
I wish the Tianamen square rally back in the day brought down the Communist party of China. God help the poor suffering Tibetans and other minorities. http://www.theage.com.au/world/china-launches-tibet-crackdown-20080728-3m8l.html
I look forward to debating you when you display an understanding of science that is more sophisticated than that of a 5 year old.
JoM
“Ron #41 Climate is a dynamic system it has changed before and will continue to change”
John i given you a fair go today I’ve QUOTED the IPPCC Report of 3,700 scientists conclusions that
1/ World temperatures hav been increasing since the mid-20th century
increase in globally averaged temperatures since -20th century Evidence that human activities are the major cause of recent climate change is even stronger than in prior assessments.[3]
2/ CO2 from man has caused it
The report finds that it is “very likely” (90%plus) that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century.
3/ The report concludes that it is “unequivocal” that Earth’s climate IS presently warming
4/ the 6 scenarios of the next 90 years temperatures , each showing a rise
Th fact you ignore this scientific evidence , and believe Andrew Bolt places you in th company of of not just CC denier , but deniers of established science
ShowsOn you’re a gun! May I ask for your science background?
People who want to bicker about the reality or otherwise of global warming are advised to take their pick out of this site and this one.
Sorry William. Go Libs!
there’s only 43% of you , but with MOE , maybe 40%
If Tibet ever achieves sovereignty then I hope they achieve a proper Liberal Democracy. The theocratic system they had before Chinese invasion was as bad as Communism.
ShowsOn I concur.
Or this one.
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/07/28/rip-van-bolts-missing-months/#more-6848
Dario
maybe the Insiders could hav the CC denier Bolt on against Nelson , maybe Bolt can get Nelson to deny CC as well , and help Sir Kevin
ron, Kev doesn’t need any help. He’s doing just fine.
Few of the Lib Leadership figures
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24094239-29277,00.html
Newspoll Tables: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-29jul.pdf
Shanahan: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24093599-601,00.html
[Newspoll Tables: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-29jul.pdf
Labor go from 43 to 47 on primaries, that’s outside of the M.O.E., so J.O.M.’s first post in this thread is wrong.
it’s the climate change questions that are eye opening…
Libs are in trouble on that one if they take the ol hardline
84% think climate change is occurring, 12% don’t think it is, 4% uncommitted
Not wrong, they are jumping on the wrong ship that is heading in the wrong direction. The hilarious thing is that Costello has endorsed Nelson’s policy! When the Turnbull / Hunt position is the more sensible option.
64
Zombie Mao Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 1:15 am
it’s the climate change questions that are eye opening…
They are great on CC occuring , humans caused it and ETS Th MSN negative campaign has not any inpact at all
Shorter Shanahan:
Why they waste so much time on Costello, the Liberal Party’s perennial leadership prick-teaser, I don’t know.
He’s off playing the coquette again, back in the islands being “mysterious”, yet again teasing us all (in his and his urgers’ minds) with the thrilling possibility that he might deign to accept the leadership.
Same old, same old. How many times have we seen this out of Costello? There he is, incognito again, in the Pacific islands – again – too gutless to have a go off his own bat, so he makes quaking terror out to be “enigmatic” behavior.
The shivering bully. It gives him Dutch courage to hear the “reverence” for his elder statesmanship in the leader’s voice voice when Nelson says, “Peter can do whatever he wants, and I’ll back him.”
Total. Tosser.
Shows how lazy Costello is, he is on holidays while his father-in-law does the finishing touches on Costello’s book. LOL
It does make drilling for oil on the Grat Barrier Reef easier to cash in on if Nelson and the LNP kills it off first. Never forget the National Party policy in the Joh era.
It is no wonder that Newspoll is being to show the decision to put the ETS on the never never and consider national adoption of the Pineapple Party today in Shadow Cabinet would concern voters.
“It was eventually revealed that several Queensland Cabinet Ministers owned shares in companies that had successfully applied for sand-mining leases at Cooloola. In 1969 fellow Parliamentarians asked the member for Barambah (Joh Bjelke-Petersen) to sell his shares in oil and mining companies, including a number that were involved in drilling on the Great Barrier Reef, and he refused 4. Oil drilling on the Great Barrier Reef, which had begun in 1967, was a contentious issue for many years.”
http://www.archives.qld.gov.au/1972cabdocs/background.asp
http://www.openaustralia.org/debates/?id=2008-06-26.23.2
Beware. QANTAS is flying on pure luck at the moment. It’s not if but when a major accident will happen to QANTAS flight. There have been too many “technical problems but the safety of the passengers was never at risk”, rubbish. It’s bit like the CC deniers actually.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/door-opens-during-flight/2008/07/29/1217097180926.html
The media’s continual fascination with Captain Smirky is mystifying!
Costello is all wind and piss, the guy doesn’t have a backbone in his body!
Uh, Left is cool. That’s why the increasingly rightward Liberals can’t win a trick!
Ooops, left a tag open …
62 from Sham-I-am’s scribblings. Says it all really.
“In the Newspoll, Mr Costello’s strengths were among Coalition voters – with 53 per cent preferring the former treasurer – men and those over 50 while Dr Nelson’s were among women and those over 50. Mr Turnbull’s highest support was among ALP voters.
But when asked if Mr Costello’s leadership would make a difference in the way they voted, 57 per cent said it would make no difference…”
Finns- trying not to think that as hopping on board Qantas in 2 weeks. I’m running with the “they’d be really really careful now” reasoning.
44%! After more than a decade of displaying his wares, less than half of those polled prefer Williwillinot to others in his own party. After more than a decade of exposure, why isn’t it, say, 57%?
I wonder how Williwillinot’s book will address his courage? How will it address the fact that the majority of Australians simply don’t like him very much? How will it differentiate his contribution from outcomes that global processes were generating anyway? How will it sort out what was Howard and what Costello? How will it address his lack of the numbers? Will it address perceptions of his laziness and his abrasiveness? Will it address the reasons for the lack of corporate offers of sufficient substance? Will it address his enjoyment of his current spoiling role and the damage it is doing? Will it explain how his delay in making his decision now is helping liberal party supporters? Will it dig a bit deeper and address the conflict between self-belief and self-doubt that seems to continue to paralyze him? With a bit of flair it could be a bloody good read.
Mr Turnbull’s highest support was among ALP voters.
Um…aren’t the ALP supporters the ones the LNP need to attract to get back into government?
Tells you a lot about the Libs, ATM. And Shanahan. None have no clue about politics.
Correction:
Tells you a lot about the Libs, ATM. And Shanahan. None have no clue about politics.
Should read:
Tells you a lot about the Libs, ATM, And Shanahan. Neither have a clue about politics.
I’m just getting sick of Costello’s “winning” strategy: sit back, disappear if possible, and let everyone speculate, culminating in a draft (he wishes). Add “knowing” smirks and enigmatic utterances, signifying… nothing (at least no so far).
He’s been doing this since time-was. “My father told me to never tell a lie”… leaving rabid commentators to join the dots.
This man seems to be congenitally incapable of standing up for himself or what he believes in. How in the hell he could ever stand up to a real crisis, one that required true courage to confront, escapes me.
Even when he had the numbers, and when his party needed him after the election, he squibbed it… possibly for a dumb a reason as Howard had “anointed” him and he didn’t like Howard that night. He squibbed a front bench position. His whole life in politics has been taking no chances. even in 1995, when he gave in to Howard’s sweet little lies about a handover, he did it because he wouldn’t have to work at the leadership: it would have been handed to him.
What’s he waiting for? For the Libs to be so cowed and beaten that he can reassert his bully-boy tactics… on his own party?
Geez, this man, coquetting around, playing hard to get with the comely smile and the sexy ball gown, is the absolute last person the Libs or the country need to be Prime Minister. Trite, but true, it’s a sign of how desperate the Libs and their supporters must be that they even contemplate a loser such as this to be Leader.
He can’t stay in Parliament because he hasn’t got the numbers or the moxy. He can’t leave Parliament because he cannot get a job befitting his status. And he can’t bring himself to admit any of it. What a sorry excuse for a man, much less a politician.
If it’s not handed to him on a platter – whether that be the Leadership, a job, a gun economy, or an uninterrupted Question Time license to smirk – he doesn’t want it.
Re this BOLT phenomena,
It is rare that in a short period of time we see the complete collapse of someones credibility. Taking with it a whole raft of ‘thinkers’.
The reason that Bolt simply can’t change his stance is that his whole ‘career’ is based on this right-wing dogma around an anti-environmental, pro-market, pro-American, anti-intellectual loudmouthed bullying pro-vested interests ranting.
How would any of us feel if we were completely discredited by our chosen opponents. Bolt must lie awake at night in a cold sweat. “How could the Greens have been right all along”. “How could it possibly be that Bob Brown has been Totally right for the last 20 years.” “How could I have been totally Wrong all along, people must be laughing at me”.
The extension of this complete collapse in credibility then moves to ALL his other rather bizarre stances. There is of course a common thread that his rantings have. They support the powerful and rich. He is a crawler, a supporter of the rich, an attacker of the weak, a supressor of the underprivileged.
I keep seeing the meeting where all the Indigenous delegates stood and turned their backs to Howard. (Lets remember for a moment the Shame of his Stances around Sorry). There has been a move around Bolt similar to this, he had some credibility once?, now his CC stance has distroyed this, his attempts to continue the argument now becomes almost pathetic. But I say again it needs to be seen in this context. He can’t admit that he has been totally and catastrophically wrong as it would lead to a complete collapse in his ’sense of his personal credibility’. Really the only way out for people like Andrew is to stop talking about it. Just stop and start trying to focus on other more interesting debates.
BB@68&81,
That piece should be bottled!
BB…a BlunderBuss with perfect aim? Spot on.
Delightful reading.
Oops….’These pieces’..
It’s almost impossible to nail a jellyfish, but BB has done an outstanding job of it with Costello.
With a TPP at 57-43 the most interesting question is this:
Would Costello as leader affect your vote?
Its ALP voters that the Coalition need … and guess what?
ALP voters more likely = 15
Alp voters less likely = 20
Woops Peter that’s a net position of negative 5 for you.
Better get another job
Excuse if I am dumb, but is Costello really on holiday – again? I thought they were having a BIG meeting where all would be resolved. If he is the answer, wouldn’t he be there?
Absolutely correct BB. I’d love Costello to take on the leadsership. He would be absolutely slaughtered. Go Cossie, go for it. I dare you.
I love it, Nelson’s having his big Liberal Party meeting today, and Costello is out of the country: that says it all!
Annabel Crabb dealt with this Costello myth on Saturday.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/annabel-crabb/shows-over-folks-lets-move-along/2008/07/25/1216492729366.html
Question – how did Costello garner all this support from the press?
Lots of lunches, leaks or is he really that charismatic amongst a certain personality type?
Back in 1994, Costello could see that Hewson couldn’t last as leader. But instead of challenging Hewson himself, he thought it would be a better idea to put Downer into the leadership. That tells you all you need to know about Costello. He thought it would be a good idea to make Downer leader.
The Australian today puts Pravda to shame. You have to read that Costello poll carefully and when you do you note there was no preferred Pm number for backbench Pete. And when you see the numbers of voters who think he should be oppo leader, the figures also show that he is not a vote changer for the non coalition voters so the reshuffling of numbers would not appear to be an influence on the primary votes of the parties. Try and find that in the Australian’s coverage
But the Government Gazette seems obsessed with putting Pete into the Opposition leader’s office. They should be careful what they wish for.
As Barrie Cassidy pointed out on Insiders a few weeks ago the figure from Jackman’s book on the KevinO7 campaign was dodgy and a deeper anaysis of the figures showed Pete is on the nose with the voters. So what is the Oz up to?
And spare a thought for poor old climate change data manipulator Andrew Bolt (see Larvatus Prodeo) The punters just aren’t buying his shit. And yet the mainstream media continues to give the likes of Devine, Duffy Bolt Akerman the running on this issue without demanding anything like some scientific rigour in their claims. They continue with the line that there is doubt about the issue. Read the GGs poll today they numbers are extraordinary. The Libs still don’t realise what a vote changer climate change was at the last election. If they continue to use it as a political football they can kiss ideas of One Term Kev goodbye. They will be doomed for a generation.
Isn’t Cossie at a hammock convention in the south pacific?
The shadow cabinet may as well all be in a hammock in the South Pacific seeing their main work today will be to not make a decision until the rest of the world pass us by.
The hide of these people getting a plane ride, dress up in a suit, scoff scones and jam, decide to do nothing and get a flight and cab fare back home.
I always thought the role of the Opposition was to come up with alternative policies.
95 steve
Nah – now it’s their role to snip from the wings – any wing mind you left, right, arse or front, and slow things down.
It suggests they know what’s coming.
Has anyone plotted Vaile and Costello’s departure times against their parliamentary entitlements and superannuation package?
I reckon it’s getting that cynical in there.
If that’s the case, onimod then they can do that from home on an honary basis. If they are going to meet as a Shadow Cabnet they should be producing policy on behalf of the people who voted for them. They are paid to make decisions not put them off indefinitely.
You have indeed summed it up in a very devastating and exact way progressive 88.
The Finnigans @ 72 -
Beware. QANTAS is flying on pure luck at the moment.
Probably, but I suggest no more than usual.
It looks like last weeks incident was caused by an exploding oxygen bottle. Something which apparently has never happened before and presumably was not thought a danger.
And yesterday’s drama is more sensationalism than cause for concern. It wasn’t the first time that a wheel well door has failed to fully close and it won’t be the last. But at no stage was the aircraft in jeopardy. The only effect was some minor vibration. Maybe scary, definitely inconvenient, but not a danger.
Costello’s popularity seems to have risen significantly since he left the country. Could we make it a permanent arrangement please?
JoM
After the Newspoll resuilts where ar you , a disciple of th flat earth Andrew Bolt religion Newspoll has quantified a total of 12% who do not believe th earth is warming Now th other argument you had with me was man was not responsible for CC , well you did alot better there , only 3% agree with you , and 97% disagree with you
I think th Newspoll results demonstrate the punters themselves think CC deniers ar irelevant
97 Steve
If they make the wrong decision today, with these Newspoll figures in front of them they deserve everything they are going to get, inc extinction–don’t forget Possum’s article re over 70s dying off and taking their pro-Coalition stance with them. 20 seats within 10 years are at stake for the Fibs IIRC
steve
I don’t reckon I’ve been much more frustrated than when I saw Hockey on one of those group talkfest shows this year and he was asked about opposition policy on something and he flat out refused to talk about it lest he might ‘give away’ something the government might steal and use. Seriously.
I know pollies on both sides have this mentality.
They are obviously so bunkered in their own little world that they don’t even see the big picture that they are part of a process for governing the country for all of us.
Of course the media’s inability to see past the first disadvantaged and discuss compromise and progress rationally doesn’t help. And as Bushfire has been banging on about though – the fact that the country doesn’t have a perceived common direction just compounds the situation.
Leaving out Bishop and Abbott from the choices is one way to inflate Costello’s numbers. Why else would this be done?
Why not go all the way – take your pick, just Costello or Chris Pyne. LOL.
“It looks like last weeks incident was caused by an exploding oxygen bottle. Something which apparently has never happened before and presumably was not thought a danger”
It has happened before. There is a DC 9 in about one million bits at the bottom of the Everglades (which is basically two metres of swamp on top of solid limestone but you get the picture) and the crash was caused by an oxy explosion. Bad luck for the passengers but great news for the alligators. The plane was ValueJet which I believe is now out of business. Perhaps not. But the cavalier attitude of Qantas, from Dixon down, to everything regarding cost-cutting is going to have it’s inevitable conclusion one day.
On another note, a friend of mine who flies in high circles (pun intended) met the Qantas CEO at a bank function said he had never met anyone who had a such an intense dislike for other humans. Strong stuff, and from someone not prone to describing people like that.
bryce, why muddy the Newscorp stable’s numbers by having Pyne’s name there? Marcos,Saddam and Mugabe have showed them how it is done. Just ask do you agree that Peter Costello would make a lovely Opposition leader and just accept yes as the answer. There would be walls coming done, champagne guzzled and free popcorn to celebrate in every Murdoch office in the country. They could even write of ‘overwhelming support’ from the voters.
If my maths is right that’s 59% who don’t want Costello as leader.
I think Bushfire & othr posters hav over rated Captain Smirk , merely calling him gutless He and Bolt ar soul mates and friends going back to there Uni student days , and share th same fatal trait
Th Media always hav protrayed Cossie as the Gunna man , Cossie was always gunna do something , was always gunna to challenge , but pop nothing ever happened Cossie & Bolt are th ultimate liberals , th born to rule set and they beleive it as there right Most Liberal MP’s see themselves as part of the Liberal Party I reckon Costello sees himself above the Liberal Party , a birthright right to rule Captain Smirk has never challenged because he expected to be drafted , and has always expected to be drafted , an as he puts his brillcream on in Fiji today , he is still waitning for “that call” still , to be drafted
His smirk in infamious , but notice the reverse smirk , the sneeer when he wishs to dismiss an unwanted queston , almost haughty Do not be generous and just call the Gunna man gutless Peter Costello is a complete conviction politican of Peter Costello He expects ‘the call’ to be drafted , and probabley has driven Andrew Bolt crazy over th years asking where has that call to be drafted gone to , A born to rule man , in his mind
please please let Peter be leader of the Libs :wicked:
as in
If I’m the minority in relation to climate change then why are you waisting your time with me Ron?
Has Newspoll asked who who is your preffered choice of Prime Ministerr Kevin Rudd or Peter Costello?
ron and JoM
I wouldn’t be quite as enthused with the Newspoll results on CC as ron is. It’s frowned on (sorry JoM) to be denying CC at the moment so the pollsters get told what the polled think makes them look good. But in the quiet of the ballot box, with no-one looking on, its much easier to say “Bugger climate change”. Its the Bradley effect all over again.
The polls here in Ozland have been very consistent:
1. Labor is about 10% in front of the Coalitions on a 2PP: 55-45
2. Rudd is 50% infront of Nelson as the PPM: 65-15
3. 70% of the punters want action now on CC regardless of what others do.
I think this is a very solid foundation for Rudd to really do something significant and of long term value on CC for Australia as well as for the rest of the World. With a solid foundation like this, if he can’t, he does not deserve to win the next election.
I bet the Dems in the US election wish they have similar consistent poll numbers for their candidate. Obama seems unable to shake off McCain like Rudd has shaken off Nelson (as the PPM: 65-15). There is even a new Gallup poll today that says McCain is 4% infront of Obama. interesting.
The careerist do nothing set of decisions will be to:
(1) sincerely acknowledge that there is a problem with too much CO2 and assert they are complete, unanimous agreement with IPCC findings;
(2) sincerely look like they are sort of doing something practical as soon as reasonably possible but not with the Rudd Government’s unseemly, reckless haste and, of course, definitely not too late, no;
(3) have no negative impact on anybody, especially the big end of town, working families, children, industries, unions, miners, small business, fishers, farmers, car drivers, truck drivers, all other known sectors, voters, home owners, first home buyers, renters and populist careerists; (only green economic satanists will miss out).
(4) avoid getting too real until somebody important somewhere else does something, sometime and definitely not before the next election;
(5) ignore what is happening in Europe;
(6) allocate some notional funding to alternatives including un-means testing solar hot water; a bit more wind; and some more biofuel subsidies to keep the LNP happy;
(7) call for speeding up funding for that ultimate oxymoron, clean coal;
(8) call for the practicalities of nuclear power to be examined;
(9) call for the speeding up of uranium exports and for open slather on new nuke mines.
The anti-gg will hail this as practical, visionary and not damaging to Australian interests because they are on the do nothing bandwagon.
Diogenes I agree with your post at #112.
Hey JoM, did you and ron have the same english teacher at school?
At least ron makes valid points in his posts instead of just putting contrary positions forward hoping to get a bite.
re. 105
) about QF30, there is a bit of a difference between QF30 and and the plane that crashed in Florida – in the Florida crash, the Oxy bottles were cargo. I think a leak caused the hold to fill with oxygen, inevitably resulting in a fire (& crash).
From the pages of discussion I’ve seen on a couple of aviation forums (fora?
In QF30’s case, the oxy bottle was ‘part’ the plane (the pilots emergency supply I believe), and there was no fire. So I suppose it could be considered a ‘unique’ event.
A very professional crew, and a large slice of luck was involved in getting the plane down safely. If the bottle remained stuck in the hold leaking O2, the build up of O2 could have caused a fire in the hold, & the bottle itself missed anything vital as it was either propelled or fell out of the plane. And finally, the pilots were lucky there was another bottle of O2 still working, otherwise hypoxia would have set in fairly quickly, and QF30 might have ended up like the depressurised Cypriot Air (I think?) flight of a few years ago.
Still, I flew with Qantas twice this weekend, and felt safe (despite my fear of flying). You’ve got much better odds of winning the lottery.
cheers,
PS, Back to politics, it looks like Possum has an analysis of last nights Newspoll up (if its not already been mentioned).
Scorpio surely my English isn’t that bad?
Vlid points as seen through your eyes.
114 Boerwar
If you look at the list of voters the LNP don’t want to annoy, they are almost all Libs rather than Nats. Lots of farmers believe in doing something about CC, esp as it gives credence to their complaints about how the weather is increasingly causing farms to become unprofitable and need subsidies.
No-one points this out but I think the Nats and Libs are going to have problems maintaining a united front on CC/ ETS.
(I should also point out that nuclear fission should be on the table, although fusion is much better. The fourth generation nuclear fission reactors deplete the uranium to much smaller quantities of a less dangerous product than the third generation reactors.)
‘waisting’, ‘preffered’. ‘Ministerr’. All in one post, 111.
I’m sure you can do better!
Diogenes,
As one who promulgates scientific method, have you any evidence to back up your assertions of 112. Or is it some sort of religious belief system?
Finns @ 113, that Gallup poll was a poll done for USA Today and had a sample size of 791 people. The Gallup tracking poll which has been telling the story throughout the whole year has Obama at +8 at the moment.
Oops, guilty as charged Scorpio, I will do better.
I agree with Diogenes lets go nuclear.
This idea that people onlt tell you what you want to hear in polls is all well and good but it doesn’t explain away the significantly high numbers for this poll on CC. It also doesn’t explain away Rudd’s continuing high support. The “polled” may well give the “politically correct” answers on CC (I’m not comvinced) but on who they’ll vote for? Surely if they didn’t “really” like Rudd’s stance on CC this would show up in Labor’s vote.
119 “No-one points this out but I think the Nats and Libs are going to have problems maintaining a united front on CC/ ETS.”
Diogenes, I think there will be the odd lone wolf but overall they will be comfortable just cruising along and then blaming Nelson when the kick against them comes. We never saw any major revolt against detention of immigrants or workchoices so why will this generate any more excitement?
They will just slink away into another election loss without knowing what the problem is, even though people have explained it to them on a daily basis. The worst possible thing in opposition is to do nothing and not have viable policies should the tide turn.
Gotta agree with the GG (121) on this one, Diogenes, you gonna need some good evidence of that claim, at least in relation to climate change, because it is a very different issue from standard politics and the normal rules do not necessarily apply. I think those numbers from the Newspoll are actually fairly accurate and reflect a strong and legitimate concern among the populace.
The Finnigans Says: @ 113,
{There is even a new Gallup poll today that says McCain is 4% infront of Obama. interesting.}
Although it’s OT, the Oz has a different spin on it.
{BARACK Obama has opened upa nine-point poll lead over Republican rival John McCain following the Democrat’s adulation-soaked overseas tour – his biggest margin since Gallup began tracking the general election in March.
A Gallup poll released yesterday shows Senator Obama now leads Senator McCain among national registered voters by 49per cent to 40 per cent. }
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24092256-2703,00.html
Got to be kidding. Cost blowouts and delays all over the world on nuclear plants atm. Would take forever to get even one plant running.
GG and Just Me
The scientific method is to form a hypothesis and then test it using evidence. At this stage, it’s just a hypothesis based on previous studies which show that there are often differences between what voters tell a pollster and how they end up voting. There are good psychological reasons for putting up such a hypothesis.
At this stage, my hypothesis has neither been refuted or verified. My post didn’t say it would definitely happen.
Thank you for this opportunity to clarify this matter.
Dario
I don’t think nuclear is the best option for Oz (geothermal is IMHO).
Nuclear may well be more cost-effective in countries which do not have the natural resources for solar, hydro, geothermal, wind or, dare I say it, clean coal.
Diogenes
At this stage, it’s just a hypothesis based on previous studies which show that there are often differences between what voters tell a pollster and how they end up voting. There are good psychological reasons for putting up such a hypothesis.
Yes, and no. Evidence about voter behaviour on one issue does not necessarily reliably carry over to another. Like I said, I think climate change is in a different category from, say, opinions on refugees, or tax breaks, etc.
At this stage, my hypothesis has neither been refuted or verified. My post didn’t say it would definitely happen.
So it might happen, or it might not. Not much of an hypothesis. Bit too vague and too much wiggle room. Need a more definitive prediction than that for it to be a testable scientific hypothesis. Problem is how do we refute/verify your hypothesis? Well, on the refutation side, if the voters decisively choose Labor again next time (when CC will almost certainly be a major and possibly THE election issue, especially if we go to a DD over it), then that would give good support to my opposing hypothesis (that CC is different from other issues and there is much less gap than usual between what the public say in opinion polls and what they vote for in the privacy of the ballot box).
Just an hypothesis.
Looks like Julie Bishop wants to broaden the GW debate a bit and take the focus off the Libs divisions on the issue.
{DEPUTY Opposition leader Julie Bishop moved today to reopen the debate on nuclear energy.
“Currently, nuclear power is the only proven technology capable of delivering low emission reliable baseload power 24 hours per day,” Ms Bishop writes on a Fairfax website.
“The issue of nuclear power has to be debated rationally if Australia is serious about making deep cuts to its greenhouse gas emissions.”
Her comments will tighten tensions in the Coalition as the shadow ministry meets in Canberra to determine its position on emissions trading ahead of a full partyroom meeting tomorrow.
In February, Opposition leader Brendan Nelson declared: “There will be no nuclear power industry in Australia unless Mr Rudd has some sort of secret plan for it.”
Dr Nelson said then: “We certainly have no plans for, nor do we envisage, Australia having a nuclear power industry at any time in the future.”
Ms Bishop says today that if Australia is to position itself well for a future of low emission energy, “the nation must engage in a coherent debate about the nuclear option”.}
Although I have absolutely no idea where she gets this from?
{”In pursuing alternative forms of energy, there has already been considerable investment in wind generation and a lesser investment in solar generation,” she writes.}
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24095650-601,00.html
Here’s a good post by “Aussie Bob of Sydney” at Tim Dunlop’s site.
{
LOL… reading today’s Newspoll “analysis” by Dennis Shanahan would have you believe that it was solely a poll on Costello versus Nelson/Turnbull… with a small sidebar on Labor leading the Coalition by a country mile.
Talk about “Hope springs eternal”! Shanahan even concludes that there is a reasonable chance that Nelson (Nelson!) can turn around overwhelming community concern about Global Warming and convert us all into greedy, me-tooing GW sceptics.
I suppose when Dennis gets all those little pieces of paper spread out on his office desk (the ones with the lines and arrows joining them together) it looks feasible.
The only problem is it needs Smirky to grow a backbone, which from history is an almost impossible step in his evolution from coward to man.}
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/some_polling_analysis_and_the_environment/#commentsmore
Just Me
A DD on the issue would be an excellent way to test the hypothesis. If polling says Labor will win easily with CC/ETS as the main issue and then there is a significant difference in what actually happens on election day, my hypothesis will then become a theory with good evidence to support it.
If the Libs get creamed on a DD CC election, my hypothesis will be consigned to the dust-bin, and I’ll be forced to eat some humble pie, which I’m sure GG will force-feed me.
Diogenes
I think you are right about nuclear for some nations. Finland went for a fifth reactor precisely for the reasons you say – if you factor in environmental costs and energy security it becomes cost competitive, provided it is done to high safety standards (which theirs are.) They have no coal or gas to speak of, so illustrate your logic exactly.
That being said, the more I read about geothermal prospects here, I think that plus wind is the lond term solution for SA and Oz generally.
Roy Orbison @ 107 -
It has happened before. There is a DC 9 in about one million bits at the bottom of the Everglades
Nope. Totally different. The QANTAS oxygen cylinder is a thick walled container which stored liquid oxygen – basically the same as a scuba tank or LPG cylinder.
The Valujet crash was caused by chemical oxygen generators – small metal cans containing chemicals which react together to produce oxygen when a pin is pulled. They didn’t rupture but started making oxygen and a lot of heat when pins became dislodged because they were packed without their protective covers. This triggered a fire in the cargo hold which then engulfed the main cabin and quickly destroyed enough of the plane to bring it down.
While I’m at it, that idiot Malcolm Colless has written this in his column today:
… no doubt hoping that his readers were either too young or too old to remember why John Hewson lost that election.
It wasn’t that fightback! was weak on etail. It’s that it was mind-numbingly complex on details.
But what the hell… any port in a storm for the Rudd Bashers.
# 107 Roy Orbison wrote :
“On another note, a friend of mine who flies in high circles (pun intended) met the Qantas CEO at a bank function said he had never met anyone who had a such an intense dislike for other humans. Strong stuff, and from someone not prone to describing people like that.”
Thats the way he comes across to me as well.
For what its worth just saw the following, looks like someone sucking up :
“Try as you might, Geoff Dixon is a difficult person not to like.
Warm, affable and self-deprecating, he’s the sort of bloke men admire and women love.”
http://business.smh.com.au/business/private-equity-bid-comes-back-to-bite-dixon-20080728-3m94.html
A DD on the issue would be an excellent way to test the hypothesis.
Certainly the best test we have available.
But I do not think the opposition would be stupid enough to risk a DD in the face of those consistently high poll numbers in favour of the government’s (general) stance on this issue. The best they can do is pick at details and any inconsistencies to try to get the government to make minor modifications, which the opposition can then trumpet as major concessions and victories for ‘common sense’ and ‘good governance’. Assuming, of course, that the government gives them the opportunity.
John of Melbourne 113 Says:
If I’m the minority in relation to climate change then why are you waisting your time with me Ron?
Diogenes 114 Says:
ron and JoM
“I wouldn’t be quite as enthused with the Newspoll results on CC as ron is. ”
JoM , to convert you Here you ar a self proclaimed scientiist AND qualified engineer to boot , your years of Uni study learning the fountains of knowledge and it all has come to this for you , a barbarian leading you to th light , th CC
After you i’ll go after Bolt
“Labor going soft on borders: Coalition”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24095788-601,00.html
“Today’s announcement by the Rudd Labor Government of a more relaxed immigration detention system has the potential to result in hundreds of unlawful non-citizens disappearing into the community,”
Do the Fibs really want to fight this? They already lost. Seems to me they would be better shutting up.
ruawake, it be the newer brighter workchoices tomorrow just for something different.
Bravo Steve 144, you have summed it up exactly.
Or maybe they will decide to be takenover by the National Party that always seems to lift their spirits and be the source of much celebration.
http://nationalstakeover.com/
Very true. The ValuJet crash was caused by the illegal loading of three chemical oxygen generation devices in the hold with the consequences as noted above. Hardly similar to the Qantas situation.
Amen.
Not sure the bottle was in the hold as such but a pure oxygen environment in an equipment bay can be really bad news. (See Apollo 13).
Helios Airways Flight 522 – there are lots of other examples too.
As for the Qantas incident, I’ve been told these bottles are for backup only and the pilots correctly put the plane into a rapid dive down to below 3,000m where oxygen is not required. Worst case, the plane’s auto recovery system would have pulled them out of the dive in time for the crew to recover. But, yes, a tricky situation luckily avoided.
Diogenoski 114 Says:
“ron and JoM I wouldn’t be quite as enthused with the Newspoll results on CC as ron is. ”
Newspoll had 4 CC polls , Horatio 14% PPM , believe earth is NOT warming 12% , believe man has NOT caused any CC 3% , do NOT believe in any ETS 11%
And after seeing th above , you can say without a key stroke smile to see “I wouldn’t be quite as enthused as Ron ” ?
I am very yes , naturally zero %’s would hav been better on all of them Although i might add the “believe man has NOT caused any CC at 3% , well that 3% IS within the MOE potentialy making it a 0%
Politicaly these polls are ‘CCabulous’ , because threre is so much pro CC sentiment ‘fat’ there in this Newspoll in % terms , better than one could hav hoped as a defense for th ineviteble negative CC campaign that will come And where did you get that ‘Bradley factor ‘ term from Bradley factor refferred to US black Candidates not to ‘oz’ “black coal” liberal candidates
Sorry mayo – overlooked your 138.
Oh dear Brenda announces his new policy on an ETS – except its the same.
I guess he just got “turn-hunted”.
So that explains the unnatural glow in Julie Bishop’s eyes -they’re full of fission products. No doubt she’s got mates in WA sitting on huge uranium resources; of course she’s going to spruik that particular GW/CC “solution”. But reactors take 10 to 15 years of generating “clean” power to pay off the carbon debt accrued during their construction, then they’re due for overhaul or decommissioning after 25 to 30. As others have pointed out, nuclear power is the choice for countries with limited energy alternatives -or with other agendas, such as the development of nuclear weapons. For Australia, with the full gamut of renewables and LNG to boot, the nuclear option is way down the list.
Custard Costello will never lead anything. How much are we still paying him, while he spends his time scratching his arse and writing his memoirs? (Aren’t such books outlawed under proceeds of crime legislation?) The electorate of Higgins deserves better.
Looks like there is no change to Nelson’s latest ETS position. At least until after tomorrow’s Joint Party room meeting when it could all change once again.
{BRENDAN Nelson has secured the support of shadow cabinet for a tougher line on emissions trading that makes support for a scheme conditional on action by big polluters including China and India.
Coalition sources told The Australian Online that hardliners are claiming a victory after today’s meeting and claim the “big shift” was from frontbenchers Malcolm Turnbull and Greg Hunt.
“Brendan Nelson has carried the day,” a Liberal frontbencher said.
Dr Nelson will hold a press conference shortly. It is understood the shadow cabinet has agreed to a series of principles around the issue of climate change. His new policy position still requires the support of the Coalition partyroom tomorrow.}
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24096064-601,00.html
Samantha Maiden as usual gets it wrong – I watched Brenda’s press conference and he could not explain how the policy had changed, because it has not.
So where is the “big shift”. In the minds of Coalition sources?
Oh dear, what a mess:
From Skynews’ Agenda:
“Brendan Nelson managed not only to shoot himself on the foot but also stabbed himself on the arm”
“He cannot mess up more this CC thing over the last two weeks than what he has done”.
“Nelson is now of the view that Australia must act and implement ETS”
“Nelson has managed to turn the Coalition’s CC policy into an issue, rather than the Government’s”
“About 30% of the Coalition MPs are CC skeptic or denier and questioned the science”
“Nelson has come out of the last two weeks so much weaker and hard to imagine him holding on to the leadership”
“Peter Costello is indulgent in taking a holiday as the Liberal is crumbling and the punters will not put up with this kind of indulgent”.
154 The Finnigans – I watched that too. As far as Jennifer Hewett and the journalist from The Advertiser (Mark ?) Nelson has had a very bad couple of weeks. Bolt will be spewing.
Let me fix that sentence – “As far as Jennifer Hewett and the journalist from The Advertiser (Mark ?) were concerned Nelson has had a very bad couple of weeks.”
On 7’s 4.30pm news, their political reporter (not the dickhead one) said Brenda was very uncomfortable at the press conference and if you had trouble understanding the Libs position on CC you weren’t alone as he was having trouble understanding it himself!
Dennis Shanahan’s piece is not just about promoting Costello; it’s a not-too-subtle ploy to obscure the fact that in the last two weeks the gap in the Labor/LNP primary vote has widened from 5 to 10 percentage points, the TPP gap has widened from 10 to 14 points, and the PPM gap remained unchanged at over 50. All are mentioned if one looks carefully, but they scarcely jump out of the page.
The radio broadcasts have followed suit with scarcely a mention of the key poll figures. While the Costello angle is newsworthy, so are the other poll data. It’s another example of how the media in this country is susceptible to groupthink, or more plausibly in this instance, ‘non-think’.
Even the Costello story was bungled with mislabelling of the table, which did not match the text. With Nelson’s and Turnbull’s support virtually at a standstill, Dennis was able to say: “With Ms Bishop and Mr Abbott removed from the latest poll, all of the public support appears to have shifted to Mr Costello as speculation has swirled about his future.” Another take on the figures could be that when Bishop and Abbott were included they took 19 votes away from Costello, leaving him on a par with Turnbull. Dennis, the master of implausible spin, has done it again. He should know that using data in this way is fallacious, but why should he worry about statistical precision? The only credible motivation seems to be a determined push from several Oz journalists to reinstate Costello in the belief he might be better place to wrest Government from Labor at the next election. I guess he looked, but couldn’t find a more promising candidate.
“Nelson has had a very bad couple of weeks”.
And its only going to get worse, he may be able to keep the lid on the party room tomorrow but for how long?
They really need a good all in brawl – no holds barred cage match – clear the policy vacuum and get back in the game.
Brenda, the great appeaser, is doing his party no good at all.
Gary Bruce 155 Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
“154 The Finnigans – I watched that too. As far as Jennifer Hewett and the journalist from The Advertiser (Mark ?) Nelson has had a very bad couple of weeks. Bolt will be spewing”
How did Bolt get into it Brenda has announced 3 CC policys today , all in th one news conference , whereas Bolt believes in no CC policys at all since th world is not warming
Gary
I presume you mean Mark Kenny.
Diogenes
I don’t really have a very high regard for the quality of the ‘nuclear debate’ in Australia.
I suspect that the pro-nuclear lobby in Australia knows pretty well that whole-of-life nuclear power plants are commercially uncompetitive here and can usually only work ‘commercially’ overseas if (a) they are subsidised, and (b) people don’t think in terms of ‘whole-of-life’ when they use the term ‘commercial’. The exception might be in countries that don’t have alternatives and that might be held to ransom by oil/coal/gas cartels, but that has not been demonstrated. The current oil price, and Putin’s activities in relation to with holding fuel supply to the Ukraine, may make a liar out of me on this one.
Given the commercial realities in Australia, the real agendas of the very-active pro-nuclear lobby, who are given lots of space in the anti-gg, must be elsewhere. I suggest the following three:
(a) to act a spoiler as in: ‘Climate ecohysterics* can’t be regarded as having any credibility on CO2 if they refuse to consider nukes.’
(b) to act as cover for the real agenda as in: ‘Climate ecohysterics can’t be regarded as supporting other countries to reduce their emissions if they try to limit the export of uranium.’ The real agenda would be to increase the number of uranium mines, the amount of uranium exports, and to get to the Indian market in particular. This agenda is profit. (I am not against profit and enjoy it myself, if I can get it with the way the stockmarket is going, but I prefer the nuclear lobby to be honest about it.)
(c) to give careerist do-nothings something to talk about when they intend to do nothing but want to look like they seriously want to do something if only the ecohysterics would let them.
I am not against nuclear power generation per se and believe that the radioactive material can be stored safely. ‘Safely’ means at very great cost and over a very great time frame. However, I do believe that one day we will probably all be fairly sorry about nuclear weapons proliferation. There are some pretty hairy situations out there at the moment and they seem to be increasing. In relation to, I think, the Gaza strip, a senior Israeli has spoken about a ‘final solution’ and they have the nukes to deliver it. I think it was a frustrated slip of the tongue and does not represent mainstream Israeli opinion but, as with Goldwater, using nukes gets to be seriously on the agenda when things get very frustrating. Living next to the Gaza Strip must occasionally be deadly and mostly very frustrating. Living in it must be hell.
The Iranian Ahmadinadjad would be a very, very scary nuke holder. It is hard to see the Israelis letting that come about and it is also fairly logical that if they can’t do it conventionally, they will go nuclear. Let’s all hope the diplomacy works.
Pakistani governance is rocky and no-one can sure who would end up with the nukes if things continue to deteriorate. Probably a greater practical concern is the rapidly increasing amount of material out there which is suitable for a dirty bomb (ie conventional explosive core + nuclear leftovers instead of nails and bolts. These are dead easy to make if you have the stuff). One such bomb detonated in, say, Pitt Street, would make the whole of the Iraq insurgent bombing campaign look like kiddy kindergarten stuff – not because of the comparative numbers killed or injured or the comparative damage done to buildings and infrastructure, but because of the amount of time that would need to pass` before anybody could go back to Pitt Street to work. Weeks certainly, months probably. OH&S legislation would make it a crime for bosses to expect their workers to go there.
I have read somewhere or other that if the world’s entire current coal/oil/gas power generation was generated by nukes instead, we would only have about a generation’s worth of known uranium reserves. If true, and even if the capital were available, and even if the reserves were to be doubled and even if the efficiency of generation per kilogram of uranium were increased significantly, nuclear fission is therefore probably not a long-term solution for anything at all. If so, nuclear must be more about careerists thinking about jobs, pollies thinking about national sovereignty, and cappos making a short-term quid. But I must confess I don’t know too much about whether there are nuclear fission alternatives to uranium that are practicable.
* not sure where ‘ecohysteric’ originated but I first saw the term in the anti-gg. A subby must have had a bad night on the grog. Sort of clever, but a bit over the top if the anti-gg wants to persuade the other 84% of Australians that they are incorrect on CC and begins by implying that most of them are ecohysterics.
Amigo Ronnie, [Brenda has announced 3 CC policys today] – i am struggling myself. Over how to fit the Liberal’s top 5 into the top five classic positions of the Kama Sutra on CC. One each for Nelson, Bishop, Turnbull, Cossie and Hunt. There is a fit somewhere.
163
The Finnigans Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
“Amigo Ronnie, [Brenda has announced 3 CC policys today] – i am struggling myself. Over how to fit the Liberal’s top 5 into the top five classic positions of the Kama Sutra on CC. One each for Nelson, Bishop, Turnbull, Cossie and Hunt. There is a fit somewhere.”
5 normaly does not go into 3 but Brenda found the code Cossie was zero he was gunna put up a CC policy but wasn’t drafted , Hunts a fairyfloss so got 0.5% , gave 1% to Juile a good look lady , and rounded after that
161 onimod – That’s the one, thanks.
“How did Bolt get into it Brenda has announced 3 CC policys today , all in th one news conference , whereas Bolt believes in no CC policys at all since th world is not warming”
That last bit about Bolt wasn’t on “Agenda” Ron, that was me. Bolt was wanting and hoping Nelson would take a hard line on CC and the ETS. Obviously Nelson was rolled and he hasn’t, hence my comment. Bolt will not be impressed with Nelson now.
162 Boerwar
I read a book that agreed with you about. It named the three countries most likely to be responsible for a global collapse. They were:
1. Saudi Arabia- If the fundies take over and limit oil supply to the US
2. Pakistan- Risk of nuclear waste ending up with extremists, esp if Musharref is assassinated
3. China- If its economy collapses on the back of US dollar devaluation and getting left holding the bag, combined with the possibility that they can’t continue to manage their economy so expertly for ever and will start making mistakes
#162 Boerwar – [Pakistani governance is rocky and no-one can sure who would end up with the nukes if things continue to deteriorate.] – How Pakistan was ever allowed to have and continue to have the Nukes? The answer must be that Pakistan plays cricket. That’s alright then. So if I were the Iranians, I would start playing cricket.
” Bolt was wanting and hoping Nelson would take a hard line on CC and the ETS. Obviously Nelson was rolled and he hasn’t”
Gary , Brenda is such a flip flopper to hold his job , there is always th chance of a future CC policy mark iv to save his skin
Nelson got rolled: LMFAO!
That has made my day!
Thank goodness there are still a few intelligent people in the Liberal Party, especially Mal Washer.
Rudd could really make Nelson’s day even worse by getting on the box and thanking him for endorsing the government’s policy of going slowly on the ETS initially and lowering the cap and ramping up the carbon price as major emitters come on board, which is the opposite of what Nelson is implying the policy is!
Diogenes @ 132 -
Nuclear may well be more cost-effective in countries which do not have the natural resources for solar, hydro, geothermal, wind or, dare I say it, clean coal.
It seems to me there are two problems with this. 1) Economic uranium reserves, including secondary reserves such as nuclear weapons reprocessing are even more limited than oil and are expected to be exhausted within 40 years* at current demand (or 2 years if everyone started using it [Zittel W, et al, (2006)]), and 2) what limitations will the US insist on to allow countries to build nuke plants?
Okay, breeder reactors could solve the first, but if the US has apoplexy about Iran enriching uranium to fuel grade (<=5% U-235 -v- 90% for bombs) what will they think about vast quantities of plutonium entering the global fuel cycle?
* see also: Lack of fuel may limit U.S. nuclear power expansion
According to Paul Bongiorno on TEN NEWS, Nelson was rolled by shadow cabinet.
I’d trust him over the News Ltd/Pro Liberal Party hacks!
Shamaham’s piece this morning was more of the same drivel we expect from him and that toad Milne.
So did Nelson get rolled or is “Brendan Nelson has carried the day” correct or maybe an “elegant compromise” had been found.
Talk about spin – how about, as usual Brenda decided he would do nothing. Or Brenda tells people what they want to hear.
The funny thing is that he really did not need to say anything – the Govt is going through the discussion phase of framing an ETS and we will comment when all the details are on the table.
But oh no – being a political opportunist, or desperation to hang on as leader, he makes the Fibs policy the issue. Dumb, dumb, dumb.
Progressive, 170 and 172,
Once again your insight and profound wisdom excludes the possibility of any rational alternative point of view!
152 Scorpio – WOW did Samantha Maiden get the wrong info on that one!
I had read that before leaving work, and when I got home and saw the story on Channel 10 news I couldn’t believe it.
And get this dopey line:
“Dr Nelson’s new policy position increases the likelihood the Rudd Government will be forced to delay the introduction of the scheme if it wants to secure Senate support. ”
Why? The Greens will come on board; so will X and Fielding will do a bit of trading and bingo Libs irrelevant.
One of the reasons I support Labor and not the Liberals is because it is Labor who are the true capitalists and not the conservatives.
The conservatives support a regressive tax when it suits them (such as the GST), and a progressive tax when it suits them (such as coy tax).
The conservatives support free competition ONLY when it suits them, and a monopoly when it suits them (such as superleague).
Onya Sonny Bill and Mundine. NRL = pot-kettle-black!
Grog, it’s like watching an episode of “Monty Python” unfolding in real time with a cast of characters that the original creators of that program would have loved to have signed up.
They don’t even need to have rehearsals to provide the most entertaining comedy in ages.
Looks like the “Chaser” guys are out of a job now too.
Ch7 News Brisbane says Brenda’s leadership is terminal.
You have to wonder if this morning’s newspoll was the first for ages to actually have a real impact (rather than merely altering perceptions)
ruawake if you want to ever check out the head of a beaten favourite, look no further than Brenda after that party meeting LOL.
why don’t they advertise?
With a caveat that “no previous applicants need apply”:mrgreen:
bugger- maybe he’s writing an application.
If Nelson was rolled, then so, by proxy, was Costello, who had the same position on ETS as Nelson.
Another indication – if more are needed – that Costello has run his race and will soon be out of there. Well – just as soon as he musters up the courage to make the exit, that is.
So they didn’t commit hari kari for a caretaker leader? I am shocked; Perhaps they’re not all crazy.
I reckon there is a fair chance that Costello’s book is so full of ambiguity that nobody can get a clue about what he is going to do. And the saga will go on…
“Even when Nelson does extremely provocative things, such as proposing to take the party backwards on emissions trading, he doesn’t seem (so far) to blow himself up.”
Ka BOOM.
Jack the Insider’s blog is on Nelson http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/nelson_puts_the_house_on_climate_change/
apparently he had to re-write it due to Nelson changing position again!
“apparently he had to re-write it due to Nelson changing position again!”
No wonder he’s been so grumpy lately. By the time Nelson goes he’ll be glad to see it happen.
If posters would just listen to what Brenda actualy said after th meeting about ETS , it all becomes clear
Asked if the latest policy was any different to the coalition’s existing stance, he said: “Well, there are some particular…. look, there are a couple of changes in it.”
OR this quote
” Dr Nelson said Australia must move ahead with an emissions trading scheme, but insisted that it “must be informed by what the major emitters throughout the world choose to do”.
Well, now, fellow bludgers. Does anyone else find it interesting that voting intentions on primary and TPP, stubbornly refuse to move in the Coalition’s direction, despite the unrelenting negativity emanating from the O.O. and other well known cheerleaders for said coalition? It reminds me of an oft observed human phenomenon that when what you are doing doesn’t work, you re-double your efforts and do more of the same, thereby digging yourself an even deeper hole.
What an eedjut Horatio is, making himself and the endless position changes the story.
Steve 187 -
Top shot!
188 Ron, if he’d put it on his website or the Liberal Party’s where they usually put them we might have some idea of what he did say.
Read it religiously, ESJ.
188 ron, Thanks for bringing some much needed clarity to the matter!
Steve 192, your comments deserve careful analysis, study and reflection to be fully appreciated for their wisdom and insight.
scorpio
maybe a “slighty silly party” might work for the fibs
and brenda would be a lay down misere for minister for silly walks (and policy)
scorpio
maybe a “slighty silly party” might work for the fibs
and brenda would be a lay down misere for minister for silly walks (and policy)
It appears that the Australian does not know if its Arthur or Martha. Now we get: “Nelson rebuffed by own party”.
“FEDERAL Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson has failed in his bid to alter the coalition’s climate change policy.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24097697-12377,00.html
They have just as many karma sutra positions as Brenda.
Well ruawake, in their defense, Nelson is making it hard for them. It’s not easy proping up a dead duck.
excuse the American spelling – that’s defenCe.
ruawake , the same story is on News Ltd web site and a similar one on the ABC site.
When looking at your link I came across this!
{A WRIT is expected to be filed in the High Court tomorrow alleging the involvement of the secretive Exclusive Brethren in a variety of crimes, including fraud and kidnapping.
Three sisters, from India, who say they are on the run from the religious sect, allege they can link it to numerous crimes.
The women also allege the Exclusive Brethren is involved in money laundering, immigration fraud in New Zealand and bribery of police and members of the judiciary in India.
“We’ve got 3,000 pages of evidence … and now we’re going to expose this whole thing,” one of the sisters said in Canberra today.}
Pity they don’t have some info on the mob here in Australia. Howard & Costello’s good friends in prayer.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24097703-12377,00.html
Has Cossie gone off in search of the Holy Grail of Hammocks…………..the Spine Hammock (which also has an inbuilt silver platter for leadership invitations)
Wed Aug 22, 2007 10:35am AEST
“Federal Treasurer Peter Costello says he does not know why people get concerned about politicians meeting members of controversial Christian sect the Exclusive Brethren.
It has been confirmed that Prime Minister John Howard met senior members of the group in his parliamentary office two weeks ago.
The secretive sect, which does not allow its followers to vote, has previously been linked to funding and advertising campaigns supporting the Liberal Party.
But Mr Costello has told Southern Cross Radio that there is nothing wrong with politicians meeting the group.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/22/2011667.htm
Maybe this is why Tip has been silent recently. His past utterings have come back to haunt him.
Rudd should to to Nelson what Howard did when Crean was leader – completely ignore him. If Nelson is leader of the opposition at the next election Labor will win 110 seats.
“Maybe this is why Tip has been silent recently. His past utterings have come back to haunt him.”
That’s be a long list..
Poor old Brendan. Now he has the Pineapple Party circling him. He just can’t take a trick.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/no-regrets-over-qld-merger-nelson/2008/07/29/1217097232310.html
203 ShowsON – good advice. Rudd needs to help Nelson get to the eleciton. Last thing the ALP wants is for him to go down like Downer – imagine how Australia would be different if it had been Downer v Keating in 96.
Steve 205 – Quite right. I could not have put it better.
Anderson has handed his report to the National Fibbers already, so Brenda is Fibbing, its just that they will not release it for another 3 months because it will take that long to read.
Looks like the right wing nutters in the Liberal party just got rolled; I suppose we have to wait for the story in the Australian to settle down for while before one can be sure. Perhaps there is hope for the Liberal party after all, I doubt there is any hope for the Australian.
I think that after all the champagne cork popping in Brisbane over the weekend we’ll see a ‘Borg for Canberra’ push starting from tonight. Hope the Liberals in Canberra are in tip top shape for a brawl because their petty leadership battles are about to get overshadowed by the Northern menace. They should tap the Member for Maranoa on the shoulder and convert Springborg into a small fish in a big pond.
Steve 210 – very wise.
Grog & Steve
a SIXTH July Brenda CC policy emerged on th 7.30 Report tonite right from Brenda’s lips , actualy the SIXTH followed 30 seconds after th 5th
so in th intersts of clarity for our fathful Brenda supporters here , we should recap
1/ ETS to start in 2012 , without any conditions
2/ Australia cannot implement ETS without a commitment from the rest of the world
2/ ETS to start “sometime” , after China & India committ to a “timetable”
3/ ETS to start “sometime , after China & India make “committments”
4/ TODAY , the claytons “whatever” CC policy : asked if the latest policy was any different to the coalition’s existing stance, he said: “Well, there are some particular…. look, there are a couple of changes in it.”
5/ TODAY on 7.30 report “Australia must move ahead with an emissions trading scheme, but insisted that it ‘must be informed’ by what the “Major Emmitters” throughout the world choose to do”.
6/ 30 seconds later TODAY on 7.30 Report , asked what happens if the Major Emmitters choose to do nothing , do we not introduce an ETS
‘oh yes we will still introduce an ETS , um sometime , um when its appropriate and reesonable responsible to do so , but the cost of carbon would need to be low’
We all thought Hoaratio’s Hornets couldn’t be topped , but Brenda has taken CC toa new level of clarity , even live internet news servise cann’t keep up with Brenda’s positions
A good point from Jack the Insider.
{More troubling is the Coalition’s vote. The Liberals primary vote is down four points from last year’s election; the Nats down a point and on a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition is a whopping 14 points behind Labor.
The Coalition has 13 seats that sit on margins of 2 per cent or less. If yesterday’s Newspoll results were realised in a federal election, the Coalition would be flat out getting a cricket team together in the new parliament.}
The National’s vote should hold up fairly well at the next election which would make them a good chance of being the “Senior” member of the Coalition.
Just ripe for a complete takeover by the “Pineapple Party”. lol
in th interests of Brenda’s clarity , thought it was appropriate to hav two number 2/ ’s
So the Libs are now “Waiting for Cosso”.
No doubt the Libs and Nats will continue their divisive debate, Nelson will pretend he has an ETS policy and the liberal faithful will pine for a JH return.
Just like Bob Hawke in the ACTU days intervening at the right moment to induce a settlement, Costello sits on a lounge chair, umbrella drink in hand, just waiting for the call up from the Australian public to rescue them from their Labor induced depression.
What if Cosso doesn’t turn up?
You could write a play about it.
“What if Cosso doesn’t turn up?”
Santo Santoro will.
212 ron. I missed 7:30 Reporrt tonight. You’re kidding right?
Great question to ask him though – you would think he might have anticipated it a bit better.
Andrew Bolt’s blog on the subject – quite funny really, as he reacted to Maiden’s intital report… then quickly did an update, and claims it’s the Costello compirmise, and that Rudd will end up doing it too (I guess so he can later claim Rudd is really only doing Liberal policy – in light of the last two weeks a totally pathetic arguement).
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/brave_bold_but_can_the_liberals_now_stay_united/
215 GG – the great review of Waiting for Godot could well apply to “Waiting for Cosso” – Nothing happens, nobody comes, nodoby goes, it is terrible”.
And no doubt this line from the play got a run in the Lib shadow cabinet today:
“We’ll hang ourselves tomorrow (pause). Unless [Cosso] comes”.
If you want to get a feel for how Blindeye is handling climate change response policy have a look at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ckX3CRTSB0
GG
“What if Cosso doesn’t turn up?
You could write a play about it.”
In stage plays , they always have a double , Believe Dolly has been practising
GG @ 215:
Macbeth.
Yes of course Labor is genius, Liberal are d.ckheads and the popular will demands the abolition of anybody opposed to Chairman Rudd thought.
Yada Yada Yada!
Nelson is on two strikes in about as many days. First he got rolled on the Pineapple Party and then done like a dinner today. So when will king hit number 3 poleaxe him? Is tomorrow’s party room meeting too soon for someone with half a brain (if they still have anyone that qualifies) to slither the political knife through Brendan’s ribs? Will he wake up tomorrow realising he’s blown it big time and do the deed himself?
The poor git sure is living in interesting times! They should sell tickets
Of course GG a few plays/ novellas could be written about the Court of Chairman Kevin.
I suggest the following reading/viewing list:
Power without Glory
Midnight in Sicily
The Candidate (Robert Redford version)
Bob Roberts
etc etc
ESJ, Brendan’s done enough for Labor all by himself. Rudd’s getting a very easy ride lately.
Don’t cry ESJ
Grog, thanks for the link to the Bolter Blog.
Having an enjoyable read of the posts but was gobsmacked when I came across this one. Some of them must be indulging in too many “alcopops” me thinks.
{Excellent news. This is a gold-plated, sure-fire election winner. And it’s a remarkably similar position to that advocated by me and others a few days ago and which I emailed my MP about, as I expect others did.
This will likely result in Liberal government in every state and at the federal level in 3 years. Maybe even the ACT.}
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/brave_bold_but_can_the_liberals_now_stay_united/
Tearms of boredom Dario, Tears of boredom.
Once again BB,
Where’s the beef in the ETS?
Its kind of like the painless root canal that’s being proposed. I remember similar claims about the GST.
ESJ @ 224
“The Man Who Would be King”?
Scorpio
#213
Make a good point of the Libs primary vote down 4% , th LCP primary seems static at about 37% to 38% for months now , with Newspoll variances reeely being slight movements/moe differnces in the vote for th ALP , Greens or ‘others’
This underlying low static primary vote for th LCP leaves them in no mans land
.
PS/ Newspoll continues to overstate th LCP primary votes in th 2007 result by 0.3% and understote th ALP by 0.1% , do not know why but why shoulf the Loberals look better than they dod in 2007 ?
lol, winston.
How about “A Man for all seasons”?
229 ESJ, it’s not as if no modeling has been done, just not the final Treasury modeling. I can remember reading modeling from ABARE last year they modeled heaps of different scenarios. The beef is there if you look in the right places.
ESJ
Funny you should mention Midnight in Sicily. I’m just finishing Boss of Bosses, about how Bernardo Provenzano saved the Cosa Nostra after Falcone and Borsellino were assassinated.
It’s making me wonder whether John Howard might try to make a comeback…
234 It would be funny if he got rolled in the first attempt by the ‘Joh for Canberra insanity only to be thwarted by the ‘Borg for Canberra’ madness in his last hurrah.
Meanwhile, deep in the jungle…@ the horses for courses convention…
CC Petals & Brendan Buriers Inc; a rain check; ‘it’ will go the same way as this; Kev’s Klassic Klaytons: A rewind…
‘his accusation this week that journalists have misinformed the public over counter-terrorism cases and undermined the judicial system is his shameless hypocrisy.
And his call for a media commentary blackout on the reporting of these cases until all legal avenues have been exhausted raises the question: on which hilltop does Keelty stand when he makes such demands of Australia’s robust democratic institutions?
In Keelty’s ideal world there would have been no public scrutiny of the Mohamed Haneef case, which collapsed spectacularly after the AFP and the office of the Director of Public Prosecutions made crucial mistakes — mistakes that were revealed by the media. The Indian-born doctor was charged last July with providing a mobile phone SIM card to a terrorist organisation. The charges were later dropped because of lack of evidence.
Let’s refresh our memories over key events. There was the incorrect assertion that Haneef’s SIM card was found in the exploded jeep at Glasgow airport. This claim was used to support the ongoing detention of Haneef.
First Keelty tried to blame the prosecutors and then he tried to blame the British police for providing wrong information — a mistake the British police say they corrected before Haneef was charged…
When charges against Haneef were finally dropped, Keelty tried to blame the DPP, saying police were obliged to charge Haneef on the prosecutor’s advice. The DPP presses charges based on evidence put forward by the police.
Last year Keelty attacked the media for making police investigations difficult and he savaged Haneef’s barrister, Stephen Keim, for leaking a transcript of the AFP’s interview with Haneef. Everyone’s to blame but him.
Then in a speech to the Sydney Institute this week, he attacked media manipulation of public sentiment, acting in the defensive manner of someone who believes he has no case to answer. The AFP has many media spokespeople and they all want to spin the news their way.’
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/sushi-das/2008/01/30/1201369225528.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Goodness! And then…
‘Kevin Rudd says he has absolute confidence in Australian Federal Police commissioner Mick Keelty’ OZ Feb. But wait…
‘The Legal Services Commission, which ruled yesterday on Mr Keelty’s complaint against Mr Keim, sided with a new investigative report describing the Crown’s handling of the bogus terrorism case against Dr Haneef as “shambolic”. Hedley Thomas and Cameron Stewart | February 02, 2008
There’s more…John Clarke & Brian Dawe, Yes Minister & Monty Python pump the dead parrot & continue…
‘The truth behind the Mohamed Haneef affair will remain shrouded in secrecy after the man heading the inquiry declared much of the information he has seen cannot be made public…
• “The government accepts Mr Clarke’s decision as sensible approach to progressing the inquiry’s important work in fully examining the facts of the Haneef matter and reporting to government,” the spokesman said.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/haneef-inquiry-judge-classifies-info-off-limits-20080728-3m8e.html?page=-1
“The horse flu inquiry was given Royal Commission powers – our national security and our human rights cannot be any less important than the health of our horse industry.”
Someone said amongst the fofloling…as the chief dot joiner in an heroic savemyarse with pique maneuver ventured…
‘there were no grounds to believe former terror suspect Mohamed Haneef posed a security threat.’
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24097152-12377,00.html
Ah, Sushi & Hedley…come back. Hey & bring ‘Kev’ with you.:)
Grog #217 & Scorpio #227
if you go back to my #212 listing 6 Brenda CC policys including 3 today , th interpretation iin th Bolte link you provided , has now added a year now being “2012″ instead of “sometime” as listed in CC policy number 6/ that he said on tonights 7.30 Report
224 ESJ you do realise Bob Roberts is about an ultra right winger?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Pf5vkae9EA
Steve
“be thwarted by the ‘Borg for Canberra’ madness in his last hurrah.”
is this what is holding cossie from making a challenge ?
237 Ron, it was interesting the ducking of the last question here by Nelson too.
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2318136.htm
Yes Grog, there’s a little more to it than that though.
239 Ron see 205. Springborg is meeting Nelson for dinner tonight and lobbying party room members tomorrow to take the LNP as a national party. It’s not stopping Cossie but it will complicate life for Nelson, the Pineapple Party will just steamroll over the top of him like they did with Brough if he is not careful.
#215 – [Costello sits on a lounge chair, umbrella drink in hand, just waiting for the call up from the Australian public to rescue them from their Labor induced depression]
GG – This calls for a song of the Napoleonic proportion:
Remember when you ran away
And I got on my knees
And begged you not to leave
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=hnzHtm1jhL4
Well yes, but the politics is the main focus – great cameo by a young Jack Black as a Roberts wannabe bte.
The Candidate I can see a bit better.
Power Without Glory? I doubt you can make a case for a John Wren type controlling the ALP at the moment.
Well Grog defos law prevent further comment on that point dont they.
Steve
#242
You’d think Nelson had enough problems without getting involved at this sensitive time with th pineapple party wanting a National LCP The pineapple Party may also develop a new ETS policy !
Didn’t stop Frank Hardy…
{is this what is holding cossie from making a challenge ?}
Ron. No backbone more like it!
ron, the Pineapple Party don’t have policy just a ‘general direction’ or somesuch weasel word. They are just a divide and conquer of conservative forces outfit. I doubt that they will win an election anywhere but they will create havoc on a scale that only the Queensland Liberal Party truly appreciate.
Nelson ought to be a member of the gymnastics team for the Olympics, he’s done so many backflips and somersaults lately!
It’s a pity parliament isn’t sitting right now, I’d love to watch Rudd/Swan/Tanner savage these turkeys in QT.
Lawrence Springborg makes Morris Iemma look charismatic in comparison!
From PM transcript:
“Now, then Mr Rudd says that he wants to have bipartisanship on this. If Mr Rudd is serious about it, the first thing that he will do is sit down and have a discussion with me and my senior shadow ministers, make available all of his senior officials, including his Treasury officials and accept the fact that his political agenda of 2010 is not responsibly in Australia’s interest.”
So Mr Rudd has to bend over backwards but Horatio can say ‘2020 not achievable’ and that’s it!
errr 2010 not 2020
Amigo FINNS
“Remember when you ran away
And I got on my knees
And begged you not to leave”
you were thinking of cat
Lateline just did a story on the growth of bloggers running anti CC blogs , naturaly Bolt got a mention in it
Without going into th actual detail , as its not relevant to this thread but th principal is , I found th internet was ‘abused’ /manipulated by US based computer savvy suporters of one US Pres candidate , in getting positive storys out there on th net and negative re the opponent Candidate out there using many tricks
One hopes th anti Climate deniers do not do this , and make th net less than a useful souse of knowledge and info , but from Lateline the anti CC blogs hav grown significantly in th US and here in ‘oz’
Ron, we might see some policy from the Pineapple Party in a year’s time or maybe it will take two years.
J 6 of their constitution says:
Annual State Convention shall:
Determine the general policy of the party, and details thereof;
Steve “Determine the general policy of the party, and details thereof;”
Can imagine potential fundamentel policy differences between state Q’ld LCP vs other States Lib policys vs othr States Nats policys , then flowing Federally as well potentially with 3 different Federal “Party” stances ?
.
eg AWB one desk type difference
257 Ron, Andrew Fraser gives a pretty good account of their main problems just in this state. It would be a nightmare for them come election time nationally and conserve independents would spring up all over the place at their expense.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24093561-5006786,00.html
Dear oh dear!
I am entirely in agreement with Bushfire Bill (that would be earlier threads), about the timidity of the Rudd Government. I am unhappy. I expected a great deal more.
Has not happened.
I am in South Aus, no water, no hope. I am dismayed.
Also, no water, no hope, Rann Government.
Then, in an effort to underline the timidity, Kev retains Christmas Island, sentencing the poor devils to an uncertain future.
Not happy, Kev.
thats an excellent analysis by Andrew Fraser , and your point of “conserve independents would spring up all over the place at their expense” is a natural politcal outcome
I’m staggered the Federal Libs could not see the Federal mess this could lead to
both in party meetings , Fed parliament & future Fed electons But this is all positive for Sir Kev as Labor can stay where they are policy/politically
Bloody hell, some people are just never happy. He reversed the policy from one of mandatory detention to one of detention only for those proven to be high risk ffs. Given the amount of money the Howard govt wasted on upgrading Christmas Island, it may as well be used for those who need to be detained for whatever reason.
Also Dario
part of your valid point includes th onus of proof beeing legally reversed Th act of illegal entry I think is not now deemed to be a cause for holding alone , th Dept has to demonstate that risk you mentioned
Crikey Whitey
what do you wish Kev to do on CC ?
ron
Kev is tracking well on CC. Wish he and Penny would work much, much faster on water for the Coorong, in South Aus.
Nelson and crew are simply lost in the fast diminishing woods.
Crikey Whitey
am not familar with the detail of th water problem for the Coorong , other than what one sees in News Perhaps do up a fully costed submission & try and see her or Tanya there , or send it to them to there personal attention There offices will be forsed to at least acknowledge
Th biggest problem i see for ‘oz’ overall re water is Sir Kev cann’t make rain of course and there’s not enough falling Pity some of th economics of deal powered Delalinisation
‘desal’ not ‘deal’
with solar of course !
ron, it is actually not illegal under Australian law (and has never been) to enter Australia by any means, as long as you are seeking asylum and present yourself to the authorities as soon as possible. Whether or not your subsequent request for asylum is granted is another matter altogether. Howard managed to blur this distinction very well in 2001.
thanks Dario
Saw Chris Evans on 7.30 Report talking to Kerry O’Brien about reversing th onus and making th Dept justify th risk and I see he was refferring to ‘detention’ as opposed to asylum
Today at th ANU Chris Evans announced
“Currently persons who are unlawful may be detained even though the departmental assessment is that they pose no risk to the community. That detention may be prolonged. Currently, detention is too often the first option, not the last.
Under Labor’s reforms, persons will be detained only if the need is established. The presumption will be that persons will remain in the community while their immigration status is resolved. If a person is complying with immigration processes and is not a risk to the community then detention in a detention centre cannot be justified. The department WILL HAVE TO JUSTIFY a decision to detain – not presume detention.
Labor believes that the retention of mandatory detention on arrival of unauthorised arrivals for the purpose of health, identity and security checks is a sound and responsible public policy. Once checks have been successfully completed, continued detention while immigration status is resolved is unwarranted.
The key determinant of the need TO DETAIN A PERSON a person in an immigration detention centre will be risk to the community – a modern risk management approach.”
So thats one howard policy reversed
“it is actually not illegal under Australian law (and has never been) to enter Australia by any means, ”
But it is “Un-Australian”, especially if you throw your kids over the side whilst illegally entering Australia, do we really want people here who do that, seems like something a terrorist would do.
But those days are hopefully gone, the awful dog whistling has finally been silenced except perhaps for a few pitiful remnants vainly trying to emulate their master long silenced.
Mal Brough gives the Pineapple Party one last spray. Now that the LNP has its foot in Canberra the Federal Executive of the Liberal Party can expect to be making this sort of an exit sooner rather than later. As Brough says getting tangled up with the Pineapple Party is much worse than the election loss.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24099447-5006786,00.html
Steve
You do have to feel a little bit sorry for him, kicked out of govt, kicked out of parliament, his advice on aborigines rejected, Kev doesn’t want him,his advice on the merger rejected, rejected for the presidency.
The poor kid, many are saying what a great bloke he is and how much he has to offer but no-one wants to listen to him.
Codger@236,
Keelty seemed such a decent bloke. How much simpler it would have been to admit mistakes, but suspect he is covering too many other backs.
See similarities with Colin Powell, in that they accept sh*t-kicking as part of their office even though they would not in private life.
Obedience to their masters,whoever they are.
But truth is seeping out. And may decency prevail.
Mal Brough: “This experience has been much worse for me than losing the election.”
It’s called karma, Mal. Isn’t it wonderful?!! ;-D~~
Funny. Brough is revealed to be just another self-seeking, look after number one, politician and manipulator. The white knight hype that had built up around him was there for the keeping – but he’s now shown exactly what he’s made of.
Enough is never enough for some.
I couldn’t believe what I was hearing this morning on ABC Radio National. That annoying yapping FW Chris Pyne was saying that he never saw or heard Nelson was shifting Liberals’ policy away from the one it took to the 2007 election, the 2012 policy. Is this man living in a parallel universe from us punters?
Maybe this article from Shanananana should enlighten him:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24099494-11949,00.html
A good quote from Paul Kelly also from Rupert. And Rupert is absolutely right, on yer Rupert: [Many business leaders endorsed the view of Rupert Murdoch that "the planet deserves the benefit of the doubt"] – game, set and match.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24098310-12250,00.html
Oh dear. Another who bought the Howard fear campaign hook, line and sinker. How did the 911 terrorists get into the US Rod? On a leaky boat? You must be kidding. Give yourself a triple.
It has been well established and was the subject of inquiry how the lies about ‘children overboard’ came about and was perpetuated even though early on known to be untrue. We know now the complicity of certain government ministers in this and it bought us the lovely name Rodent then Lying Rodent.
There was nobody throwing kids over-board. The only people you would find in the water would be the result of a sunken boat – and there is supscion that the then Howard govt at one time may have instructed not to rescue such persons in relation to the SIEV-X, it was/is allegation/suspicion because the govt of the time was so depraved that it was thought possible they could do such a thing.
It is not un-Australian to flee persecution. I wonder how we would see things if Australia was the despotic or destitute country.
Poor Mal. Born to rule … until mugged by reality.
Amigo FINNS
“That annoying yapping FW Chris Pyne was saying (on ABC today) that he never saw or heard Nelson was shifting Liberals’ policy away from the one it took to the 2007 election, the 2012 policy”
Glad someone else finds Pyne annoying Am never sure whats more annoying about Chris Pyne , th plume , th tone or the stupidity of th actual words sprouting out The effort you relay today is not only CC denial , its denail of whatever happened in 2007 under Howard
The Howard government never produced any evidence to support their claim that parents threw their children overboard.
The evidence that Howard pointed to in the week before the 2001 election was a report of government ministers making the claim that parents had thrown their children overboard.
Yes, in the Howard government their own baseless claims counted as evidence.
The hypocrisy of these people is breathtaking:
MPs need more work to do: Opposition
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/30/2318718.htm?section=justin
“The Federal Opposition says Parliament is not being given enough work to do.
Parliament is in the midst of a winter break and also had a lengthy non-sitting period in April and May.
Shadow attorney-general George Brandis says Parliament should be sitting for more weeks this year.
“You’d think when the people change government, the new party that comes into government, after all those years in Opposition, would have a very full agenda,” he said.
“In fact this year the Commonwealth Parliament, the House of Representatives, will sit for only 18 weeks, which is the fewest number of sitting weeks of a Commonwealth Parliament that anyone around here can remember.”
This is coming from the party that caused such disruption to parliament over Friday sitting days that the government abandoned the extra day.
I am so pleased that their time in opposition is becoming a living death for them.
MPs need more work to do: Opposition
Maybe they could keep themselves busy by actually looking after the people in their electorate. Maybe Brandis is bored shitless because he’s a senator. That’s understandable as I am at a loss to understand what opposition senators actually do when parliament isn’t sitting.
Attend Senate committee meetings.
It’s true though. The lack of sittings is both bizarre and disappointing. You’d think a new Government would have more of a legislative agenda.
That’s not to say they have no work. The Coalition has given themselves lots of works in setting up all these Senate inquiries and Select Committees. They just aren’t bothered enough to actually show up to the inquiries or feign much interest in them.
It’s a standard issue for any opposition to say that any government isn’t letting parliament sit often enough. Of course opposition’s want parliament to sit more because they get free TV coverage for all their criticisms of the government. And they get roughly 50% of the speaking time, which is a lot more than when parliament isn’t sitting (Ministers can call press conferences whenever they like and it will be reported somewhere, the same can’t be said for shadow ministers).
The fact is over the last 20 years more and more of the federal budget is appropriated through executive regulations (i.e. ministers deciding to spend money on things) rather than legislated appropriations. About $150 billion this year will be spent based on decisions by the cabinet and ministers, not by appropriation through parliament.
I do not think this is ideal, but that is the way things have gone since the early 1980s, and was radically accelerated during the Howard years. This means there is just less legilsation to pass now, nearly half of all spending decisions are decided based on who is the minister.
Also in ‘oz’ article
Mr Stockdale (the Federal Libs Pres) said he abandoned his insistence that the new party president be a Liberal after the Supreme Court last Friday overruled a decision by the state Liberal council to cancel the weekend convention. “I consulted key figures and we concluded it was impractical to maintain our insistence on the presidency,”
So th Presidency was th only objection Everything else was OK , the balance of th Executive , the policy formulation & who’d hav control of it , th future efect on State electons & th mess such a new Party causes Federaly One would hav thought these issues would hav been considered Federaly months ago and the proposal blocked Federaly or tough pre conditons put on it Stockdale like Brough comes out of this poorly
Poor Rod, the sarcasm was clearly lost on some people.
Crikey 259 “Then, in an effort to underline the timidity, Kev retains Christmas Island, sentencing the poor devils to an uncertain future.
Not happy, Kev.
Comments made by some of “the poor devils” show they unlike you are happy with Kev’s “timidity” and releived that others won’t have to go through the same ordeals they went through.
Christmas island stands empty and as i see it will only be used as a stopover for health and ID and security risk checks of people arriving by boat. They will then be out in the community until their refugee status is determined.
A few points from Evan’s speech
“5. Detention in Immigration Detention Centres is only to be used as a last resort and for the shortest practicable time;
6. People in detention will be treated fairly and reasonably within the law; and
7. Conditions of detention will ensure the inherent dignity of the human person.”
http://webdiary.com.au/cms/?q=node/2451
(Speech delivered on Tuesday 29 July 2008 at the Centre for International and Public Law, Australian National University)
“At my first meeting with Department officials as Minister for Immigration, I asked who was detained at the immigration detention centre on Nauru and at what stage were their claims for asylum.
I was told there were eight Burmese and 81 Sri Lankans there. Virtually all of this group had already been assessed as refugees but had been left languishing on Nauru.
When I asked why the eight Burmese had not been settled in Australia in accordance with international law there was an embarrassed silence.
Eventually the answer emerged. The Howard Government had ordered they stay put. They had been left rotting on Nauru because the Howard Government wanted to maintain the myth that third country settlement was possible.
Sadly, Australia’s treatment of asylum seekers had sunk this low.”
282
ShowsOn
All of them? All of the time?
WE will decide WHICH laws to follow and WHEN we want to follow them!
Senators don’t attend every committee meeting, only meetings of the committees they are assigned to. It would be extremely un-parliamentary for a Senator to fail to attend a Senate meeting without a legitimate excuse (health reasons, other serious personal issues that would need to be explained to the Committee chair and President of the Senate.)
Shows ON – doesn’t that kind of attitude usually result in criminal action against those that broke the law????
Bring it on.
Rudd is off to the Olympics next week, then parliament resumes!
I’m missing Question Time, I wish I could watch Nelson and his bunch of incompetent hasbeens being savaged by the Government.
Anyone ever thought of Friday sittings for Brandis?
http://www.liberal.org.au/info/news/detail/20080307_BackdownonFridaysittingssavedGovernmentfromHighCourthumiliation.php
Meltdown going on and heads exploding at Bolt’s blog. Many vowing never to vote Liberal again.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/blame_not_nelson_but_his_colleagues/
Seems that Turnbull is being blamed for the lot.
Heheheheheh…
And who are the right wing crowd that frequent Bolt’s blog going to vote for, the greens? The problem for the Liberal party is not the extremes, it’s regaining the center.
Charles
Could it be time for another Pauline Hanson reserection?
Wow BB-
I’ve never read Bolt’s blog. Where did they find all those ESJ’s? I thougbt he was unique..
well Vera-
they appear to have the same kind of analytic abilities as PH.
wow… well, I’m never going in there again… bolts place is like a big room full of nazi’s on crystal meth shouting at each other
Jen
and they drag their knuckles along the ground behind them when they walk
Sounds like Bolt himself has given up on the Libs. I thought that would happen, given his stance on CC and the expectation he prospered that Nelson would produce a “courageous” CC/ETS policy. Expectations heightened then deflated badly.
Classified Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
wow… well, I’m never going in there again… bolts place is like a big room full of nazi’s on crystal meth shouting at each other
Classified yous civilised people don’t think like a Barbarian You should hav gone there under th pen name of “Andrewe Bolte” , proceed to put some far left ideas up that you state that Brenda (the ex Laborite you think reely bleieves in ) , and state that toffy Turnbull supports gay legislaton , and that thats how he won his seat on the ‘back’ of gay votes
The possibilites ar endless to creat havocs , maybe i will , beinfg such an affiable guy and all
Yes Bolt’s blog is an “interesting place” and like Classified I don’t think I’ll venture there again. You can see where Bolt gets his finely honed sense of balance and impartiality from.
Still it had some entertainment value. I particularly like one poster who looked back with envy on when Latham was opposition leader. That is, he thought Latham showed more fibre as a leader than the Liberal hierarchy. Thats funny
Good point Ron, a lot of possibilities. Perhaps I could call myself “Warren of Toorak” and bitterly deride the takeover of the liberal party by bounders from Sydney who have never even set foot in Geelong Grammar or Scots College! Menzies would never had stood for it.
Yes, just one brief experience of Bolt’s pack of rabid fanboys in full foaming-at-the-mouth mode is enough to leave a vivid, disturbing and life-long memory.
He must be so proud of the quality of his supporters.
Would be funny ron, but if you do go in there, make sure you’ve got overalls on and something to wipe the seats. You dont want to get any of whats flying around in there on you
BTW, are there any banking industry insiders out there? Noting the recent disclosure of further sub-prime losses by Merril Lynch and flow-on effects here, I can’t help wonder what will happen with Lehman Brthers, who as I understand it still have not revealed the full extent of their sub-prime losses, despite a large exposure. The contracts must be coming due soon, in which case the gig will be up for them I would expect. But interested if others have better info than I.
I should add, I do NOT believe the Australian banking industry or economy is about to collapse. I am just interested as to what might happen to the US economy. If a few banks here get embarrassed for making high risk decisions without adequate checkind good, I say. The regrettable part is that the fact they believe they can sqeeze customers to make up the loss without fear and thus illustrates how much of a monopoly they have become, and that they need to be re-regulated.
Alan Kohler made a few good points about this.
While the US banks had written down the CDOs to some degree, NAB essentially wrote them down to 10% of face value. Much further than the US banks had previousl done. (Though Merills have now started).
There’s a lot more to go if all the banks take them there – conversely NAB may make a reaonasbly significant wind-fall gain if they subsequently get to write-up the value of the securities. Even if they only get back 30 cents in the dollar, that’s a lot more than 10.
You should be greatful Australian have the ability to squeeze customers like that, to be honest. It’s that ability that keeps them looking OK in the current environment. If all the banks were running losses on their entire mortgage books of 1% per annum then they would be bankrupt very quickly. I’d prefer to pay the extra basis points than to have wholesale collapse of the banking sector.
The more scary story is the European banks. This “sub-prime crisis” is not really a sub-prime crisis any more, it’s a credit issue. And it’s global. The difference is that the European accounting and disclosure laws are less strict than the US… Heard this morning that many European banks would be subject to forcible closure if they were under the US rules. They have insufficient capital when measured under the US standards
Socrates @ 308 said:
Totally agree, We pay for their mistakes, but even the current govt doesn’t have the balls to take them on like they should. It’s the one area where I think PM Rudd should and could show so initiative.
Won’t happen though.
Socrates
$308
agree re more regulation & our banks ar not at risk , they hav more liqidity than th fragile US unregulated system But th cost of funds will rise , and we’ll (consumers ultimately pay
According to th Citibank assesment , re CO’s collaterised debt exposure etc ANZ has 23 billion , Wespac 9 billion CBA 3 billion , don’t hav NAB’s buts well above Westapac’s , and this is th area that ANZ hav proved most of there 2.2 billion bad provisions & Nab there 1.2 billion
The freeze on liquidity is worse in th US , according to US Reserve last 12 months has dropped 80 billion and annualised this year heading to 150 billion , and both US candidates still suport a laissez fair unregulated capitalist system , th American way , despite th Wall Street mess
Rates , the problem with th US is th degree of exposure the US system has taken on greedily without proper credit principals , and the bottom may not hav been reached Think “Capital’ needs some regulation to protect istself from its own greed , and more importantley protect small bus and th folks
vera Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
“Could it be time for another Pauline Hanson reserection?”
If your a labor supporter wish for it, the last round did untold damage to the Liberal party as it lurched to the right to pick up a vote that would have come back to them through preferences anyway.
There is no doubt in my mind that about 10% of the population supports Andrew Bolt’s nonsense and the crap the Sydney shock jocks go on with, just as there is 10% that support the greens, but you don’t win elections pandering to either group.
Amigo Ronnie, the great satan is selfish again at the WTO talk:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7532302.stm
As usual the great satan wants to protect its “poor” farmers with subsidies. Thankfully, OZ is on a good solid ground as it has or on the way to have many bilateral FTAs with key trading partners:
Australia’s Free Trade Agreements
* Singapore – Australia FTA
* Thailand – Australia FTA
* Australia – United States FTA
* Australia New Zealand Closer Economic Relations
* Australia-Chile FTA
Free Trade Agreements under Negotiation
* Australia-ASEAN-New Zealand FTA Negotiations
* Australia-China FTA Negotiations
* Australia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) FTA Negotiations
* Australia-Japan FTA Negotiations
* Australia-Malaysia FTA Negotiations
Free Trade Agreements under Consideration
* Australia-India FTA Feasibility Study
* Australia-Korea FTA Study
* Indonesia-Australia FTA Feasibility Study
http://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/ftas.html
Haven’t you noticed? They usually use names of the Apostles, or Biblical names, e.g.:
“James of …”
“Peter of…”
“John of …”
“Adam of…”
“Warren” is too atheistic. Like the “… of Toorak” though.
To be fair, Australian banks have made comapratively few mistakes.
One of the vaguaries of the Australian System was that the banks fund your mortgage primarily by borrowing in the short term money market. The banks passed this risk on to you when you signed a floating mortgage. This exposed you to the changes in short term rates.
Hence, when the RBA raised short term rates, your mortgage went up.
However, when the price of short term money rose for other reasons, your mortgage also went up.
The banks have not changed the fixed rate loans – becuase they didn’t need to. When you sign a fixed rate loan the bank borrows money for a longer time frame and so is unaffected by the subsequent increases in rates.
The broader Australian public was probably unaware that this could happen, but it was there in the contracts.
Go Bolt, what is he billed as? Australia’s most talked about columnist. I don’t see left wing Blogocracy getting that sort of treatment
Finally a bit of movement in Mayo.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24093560-5006787,00.html
Rates Analyst welcome back I haven’t seen your posts for a while either that or I ahven’t been paying attention. How do you see the current property market will housing prices drop?
JOM @ #316: Indeed, Andrew Bolt has been mentioned on this thread nearly twice as often as Kevin Rudd. If anyone cares what I think, I’m getting a bit bloody sick of hearing about him.
Will Brenda have a different version of his ETS today after Iron Bar has a quiet word?
OK William, I hear you
Kevin Rudd, Kevin Rudd, Kevin Rudd
314
Bushfire Bill Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
… Ron, a lot of possibilities. Perhaps I could call myself “Warren of Toorak”
Haven’t you noticed? They usually use names of the Apostles, or Biblical names
Well Bushfire , obviously th name “Ron” needs some fluffing up ! Also whilst we ar discussing names , th ‘oz’ expressions for idiots is usualy ‘quack’ , “quack quack” or “wanker” , so we should crown th climate denier guy , seeing we hav ‘Cossie’/Captain Smirk & Dolly
JOM,
I’ve been reading, but I tend to only comment when I think I’m better informed than the average blogger… hence I’ve been quiet until the topic turned to Finance / Banking.
Housing is in a slightly precarious state…
I think the upper end housing will fall. Too much money lost in shares and reduced salaries for bankers.
The more mid-level housing I’m not sure. Not looking for massive rises but could well do better than shares (for example) over the next little while. Falling petrol prices will put a bit of money back into the budget of these buyers.
Also, there is a really strong bid for rents. It indicates latent housing demand and the ability to pay up.
The final reason I think we won’t see the massive falls in the property market we’ve seen overseas is that we haven’t had a shift in credit standards too much – only a shift in price. People with reasonable credit can still get loans in Australia, if they want them. In the US, the tightening credit standards have removed whole swathes of borrowers who can no longer access credit.
If the RBA starts easing rates next year I think there could be a fair number of people who start looking to stop renting and buy.
So property flat for a year before recovering later on.
But back to more psephological issues…
Ron can I please ask you to place the letter ‘e’ in words ending in e, as your posts are difficult to read. Thank you
Pies’ blog is much worse than the one I musn’t mention
319 WB
agreed.
Far more wind than required ’round here.
Rationally discussing the irrational is silly.
Banking:
I’m not a banking insider, but I did notice John Stewart’s replacement was mentioned today – sounds like they’ve named their scapegoat, or more likely from what I know of him that he’s going to fix the problems before he leaves of his own accord, whether the board likes it or not. That might mean they think the end of their problems, or ability to control them, is close at hand. Otherwise his replacement will be in for a short ride, and that’s not a good look for anyone.
JoM
alot of swear words end in ‘e’ , especially regarding Liberals , so was taught to avoid that letter
As I mentioned above NAB were pretty brutal in their assessment of the value of their CDOs…
Not too much scoep for further losses there. Their presentation (available from asx.com) does mention another $4.5bn of corporate lending, but so long as this is not structured it would be difficutl to see the portfolio losing more than about 20%….
What was so horrific in the CDOs was that the tranching of the structure means entire securities can be wiped out in one go. Much harder to have that happen in a portfolio of normal loans. Even defulting companies normally pay back something…
323 Rates
I reckon it’ll be a lot worse than that, otherwise on a global scale we’ll be left with some of the poorest quality, but highest price housing in the western world.
I can’t see that happening.
The independent study last week that puts Sydney well in rental oversupply and the 30% per month drops in value in the US at present are closer to the mark for mine. There are most definitely areas that are still tight though.
Remember the IMF rated our stock at 62% overvalued earlier this year. I can’t see us avoiding a global repricing, and what’s worse is that it’d kill off future investment too.
Well, in truth, people, any time after I’ve visited the Bolt blogsite, I invariably feel like a long, hot, thoroughly cleansing shower. Ooh, it’s a nasty little place, eh?
324 JoM, All you have to watch out for is that ‘Pineapple’ doesn’t migrate down to your political local area because then you will really have something to worry about with words ending in ‘e’.
That’s good work Ron
Stevs can you explain the pineapple term please.
ron@327
racking my brain , but can’t come up with one.
‘t’s and ‘k’s no probs, but e’s have got me beat.
zillow.com is a great site to see that the u.s housing market is rooted.
omigod,
We also have the most property-benefiting tax system in the world…. (CGT exemptions and Negative Gearing)
Our foreclosure laws are different too, so there’s far less reason to dump properties. No “jingle mail” here and for good reason.
The tax system was a significant reason for the run up in prices and will help keep a bid in them.
One of my pet peeves is the comparison of Australian housing averages to the US. When the US has 50% of it’s population in 2 cities their data will look different too!
The Pineapple Party was the working name for the merged LNP in Queensland.
Amigo FINNS
#313
July 30th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
“Amigo Ronnie, the great satan is selfish again at the WTO talk:”
Washington said ‘that the “safeguard clause” protecting developing nations from unrestricted imports had been set too low”.
Absolutely , they still want to flood poor developing countries with there subsidized agricuture etc , often at expense of ‘OZ’ more price competitive (without subsidies) business’s Anti CC , anti WTO , financial anti regulation = greed , and all US politicans end there speechs with ‘God bless America’
Also looked at that CC problem for India & China you raied , was surprised there’s 600 million Indians alone without electricity !! Yet almost all of th US citizens do hav elecricity Both have unacceptable high emmissions & without both cut over time , CC success is unlikely
But Kyoto provided for ‘less developed countries’ like India to get emmissions targets dispensations vs developed countries like USA Therefore th USA stanse on Kyoto (that India must start at day one at th same emmissions target criteria as USA is not only selfish & unfair when Kyoto allows for th India’s , but is deliberatley giving them a “mafia” offer , knowing they will refuse , so that means th USA has an excuse to get out of Kyoto ?
and Brenda’s policy taken to its logical conclusion is actualy supporting that unfair USA stanse , as he knows India can not agree
I do like Nelson I think he is personable unfortunately he has to realise you can’t be all things to all men.
The Oz has the heading Nelson strikes another climate change position.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24101583-601,00.html
I suppose this is what happens when your leadership is balanced on a knife edge. Brendan just be yourself if you fall you fell because you were yourself, then there will be no misgivings.
and FINNS ,
US stanse on WTC of course as you already knows stops poor countries to be financially independednt developig there own food & agric industries
Very funny response JoM after reading this:
Steve, as I said before Nelsons problem is he wants to be all things to all men, unfortunately that can never happen.
336
I agree that things here are different. I just find it hard to believe that we’ll trend away from the rest of the world. I think reality is already fairly well disconnected from the current story. I’ll have to hunt that IMF data – but I don’t believe it was a US comparison at all – I think it was based upon looking at the difference between the relatively recent spike vs the long term trend.
And yes, I’m a cynic when it comes to the RE industry. The idea that RE has gone from a long term investment to a guaranteed short-medium profit machine doesn’t stack up as far as I’m concerned. At the very least it’s pricing a lot of Australians out of a better standard of living and I don’t believe that’s good for the community in general.
More likely out of his depth.
That’s because the Ruddmeister is just a little dull WB.
The ‘B’ man is never dull. Scary and often unintentionally amusing, but never dull.
JoM the one consistency about Nelson and the ETS is his inconsistency. It just gets worse each time he tries to explain it.
Onimod I agree with you when you say, “At the very least it’s pricing a lot of Australians out of a better standard of living and I don’t believe that’s good for the community in general.”
Steve he’s out of his depth becasue he wants to appeal to everybody. If you want to be everybodies friend in the end you’ll be nobody’s friend.
Yes, but with inflation runnning at 5% another year or so of flat prices counts as another 5% reduction (in real terms).
Our prices were also far more contained over the period 2005-2007 which makes the need for a substantial fall now less compelling.
Steve #346 I agree
Apostle “John” of Melbourne… Nelson is doomed.
The seeds of his damnation will be seen as his practice of trying to please whoever-it-was-he-was-last-speaking-to.
That’s OK for a while, to excite a bit of interest, but you can’t keep it up forever.
He was never leadership material: weak, vacillating, inconsistent, and a known traitor to many of the causes he took up. Once he was Labor. He vowed he’d never voted Liberal in his life. But we know now he was already negotiating to become a Liberal party member. Far too opportunistic and a real amateur in the midst of hard-bitten professionals like Minchin and his bovver boys.
Other leadership contenders…
Costello has well-known fatal flaws: mainly being that he has jelly for a backbone, disguised as “enigmatic silence”. A bully through and through and noth worth commenting on further.
Turnbull: not a politician. Smart, brilliant even… but not cut out to lead a party or a country.
Havern’t got a clue who else the Libs are going to put forward as their Great White Hope, but if any of the above get the guernsey, the party will be decimated at any election where they are the leader.
The Libs need to go through a period of penance and revitalisation. There’s no easy path back to power. Until they say their Hail Marys (and for a good while after they finally do) they’re wandering in the wilderness.
This is a party that today proudly claimed they had reset their policy on GW back to the one they took to the election last year. But they lost that election… I mean, what kind of fools are they to be proud of reintroducing a failed policy?
Really, they’re in a terrible situation.
All yours for $140k…….Viva Las Vegas http://tours4.vht.com/Viewer/PhotoGallery.aspx?ListingID=1146421&Style=PAN
He is out of his depth because he has no idea what he is talking about. Yesterday was bad enough today is just ludicrous. To come out of a Party romm meeting muttering about ‘in principle’ support is madness.
That’s probably a better gamble than most you’ll get in Las Vegas.
But only marginally.
Bushfire Bill and Steve I agree he is doomed.
As for other contenders I don’t know but hopefully Costello will come through and challenge for the position closer to the election. He has to kill the spinelss rumors. As for Bully wasn’t Kevin the same before his and during his rise?
Bushfire
If only the wider public was informed of the simple stupidity contained in your last 4 lines.
They can’t think their way out of a wet paper bag at the moment.
They’ve devolved to the point where they aren’t even self aware any more.
351 red wombat
LV is falling 3% per month at present – offer $120-125k on 90 day settlement maybe?
That’s the first time I’ve heard of Rudd being labelled a “bully”. Maybe your definition of bully” is a bit too broad.
A bully is someone who has no personal courage at all. In fact they’re usually a coward. They rely on others to prop them up exclusively. Just on this alone Rudd is out, but Costello is still in.
Costello made his name by being the King Of Question Time… he revelled in it… but only because he had a tame – one might say servile – Speaker. Very easy to strut your stuff then, when you can have your bum boy shut up the Opposition with a single word.
Time and time again, though, he had the chance to go for the leadership, but always squibbed it. No guts, no glory.
Costello was bullied as a child by his brother Tim. Bullied is as bullied was. Tim grew up. Peter never did.
They’re not “rumours” about him being spineless. They’re the truth, out there for all to see, repeatedly. His gutlessness, disguised behind that “arrogant” smirk has become his trademark. But when it was time for him to stand and deliver, he always found a reason to decline. The man has no faith in himself. Why should anyone have faith in him?
Cheers BB I understand your opinion but out there in the general population which aren’t tragics like us I don’t think there is that perception of him.
Sorry to be a bit late on the Bolt topic, and also sorry to put you through another one on the topic, William, but: (a) note the warning on the site that posts might be edited, and (b) note that my bro, who wrote what he considered reasonable entries for the site, says that some of them were censored. They were not rude, they were just comments more-or-less on the IPCC side of the CC fence.
I would say some of the Bolt posts are like some, but not all, of the posts here: made by apparatchiks; plenty of trolls; and plenty whose thought structures are a bit like Bolt’s: have an enemy; when in doubt attack; when not in doubt, still attack; verbal the enemy; when not attacking, whinge about how unfair something is; pick a statistic, any statistic that ‘prove’s’ your case; avoid trend or complex analysis like the plague; if thirty peak scientific organisations say one thing and you disagree with them, support the individual who disagrees with them; forget irony; forget nuance; express no doubt; et cetera, et cetera. Hmmm, I might have to clean up my act…
When discussing the Bolt phenomena with another reli, she started with the line: ‘Love him or loathe him…’ which is exactly where he wants everyone. Well, actually, I leave him.
All that said, I’ll give Bolt one big pat on the back: he was right about Howard, and took significant professional risks being forthright about Howard, long before it was fashionable amongst the Howard hacks. Some of them have still not got it.
Brenda has always been a stop gap leader, he only won by 3 votes which indicated the instability we now see. I doubt he has the numbers anymore if a leadership spill was brought on.
Costello is playing a spoilers role, he has no intention of becoming leader but he hates Talcum and will do all he can to make sure anyone but Turnbull is leader.
So who is left? Nobody to my mind, the Libs need to find someone with at least 60% support, maybe after a couple of election losses they will find one.
358 John of Melbourne – Don’t agree with that at all. The desperates in the Liberal Party and their rusted on supporters like him but not the general public. Tell me John, why did the Libs lose the last election if everyone knew that that magnificent symbol of all that is right in a politician, Costello, was going to take over the leadership during that term? In effect the last election was Howard then Costello versus Rudd. He obviously didn’t inspire people to vote for him then did he?
Bolt is doing nothing wrong, his brief is to stir the pot and he does it wonderfully. It’s the ABC who are failing their audience by taking him seriously. The 3AW breakfast chaps handle Bolt perfectly, one refuses to talk to him and the other just laughs at him for half an hour, and Bolt laughs along with him. A lot of people lump Bolt in with Alan Jones, Zemanek and that lot, Bolt is no where near as malicious or vindictive as them. He just enjoys being a contrarian.
358 “Cheers BB I understand your opinion but out there in the general population which aren’t tragics like us I don’t think there is that perception of him.”
Would this be based on your reading of a Melbourne blog, Jom, or something substantial? Or just a feeling in your water?
359 Boerwar
Was it luck, good management, or just that same bad strategy you described above?
The only reason he got any publicity was that same bad strategy meant he stood out from the crowd on the right as opposed to the the same message constantly (and boringly) coming from the left.
He’s a shock jock with a pen, and I honestly don’t think there is a lower intelligence or less productive job description than that. The only risk he carries is irrelevance. That it’s taken him this long to get this much publicity…that about sums him up for me.
Gary the last election was a case of anyone but Howard. He was in there long enough to have made enough enemies that just wanted him gone. People I spoke to mainly said he’d been there long enough and it was time to give someone else a go. If Howard had stepped down voluntarily after APEC and hand the batton to Costello it may have been a different story but he refused and wanted to be pushed which initself would have agrivated a lot of Howard supporters who were only interested in “Howard forever Costello never” crap.
The federal Libs should have learned the lessons of State Labor as soon as a party leader is poison dump him/her and move on this revitalises the party and people are once again re-engaged.
“Australia in implementing an emissions trading scheme can only do so when it’s ready to be implemented” .
Wow Brenda how intuitive.
Bushfire Bill wrote:
365 JoM
Against my better judgement I’m going to engage, and probably just once.
That reasoning is so ridiculously fanciful, and I know were on a blog so brevity is important, but still…
Please explain the current machinations of the LP if the only reason was that it time for ’someone else’s go”?
Seriously.
I think the people you’re talking to are either lying to you, or I just don’t know what.
Apologies for the formatting errors in my post.
Yes, whereas the next election will be the “anyone but Brendan Nelson” election, with most people figuring that the safest option will be to stick with the current Prime Minister.
The alternative is to vote for a party which changes their climate change policies every day.
Onimod I’m only reporting what I got told in conversation with probably 40 – 50 people. Most people were just sick of JWH.
What on earth are you doing in a room full of people who’s only measure of governance is time?
Do you think there might be a little bit more behind their reasoning than they’re prepared to tell YOU in a conversation.
Fantasy land mate, seriously.
RX
thats OK , this time
how come your blog came out pastel grey , colour of your keypad
Ron LOL, yep grey keyboard (and forgot to close a quote tag).
“Costello was never more than a pale shadow of the man whose performance he did clearly admire: Paul Keating”
Absolutely
Onimod the majority of conversation was between mates and work colleagues you’re right there may be a little bit more behind their reasoning than they were prepared to tell me in a conversation but I’m only reporting what was mainly said to me, I make no other claims. Fantasy land I don’t think so.
John – “People I spoke to mainly said he’d been there long enough and it was time to give someone else a go.”
And these people couldn’t be persuaded to vote for Howard this time knowing Costello would take over? Surely if Costello was so inviting that would be the change they would be looking for. Obviously Costello wasn’t their man then. What makes you think he would be now?
376
C’mon John – you’re either going to stand behind your statement and reasoning in 365 or you’re not.
Just think – 3.5 million years of evolution.
Howard managed to keep the “broad church” Liberals together and for this he has my respect (only on this). But in doing so he has done a great deal of damage.
The best thing for him to do was to hand over to Tip in 2006, get out while he was on top. Be he realised that his beloved Fibs would tear themselves apart if he was not head Fib.
So he hung on, delayed the inevitable and lost government, his seat and his legacy.
Would Ratty have allowed the pineapple merger? Of course not he would have just said NO, end of story.
Unless the Fibs can find someone like Howard they will disintegrate, but he made sure that he neutered anyone who could do the job.
His standard debating procedure is evasion. Don’t hope for much more, you’ll only be disappointed.
JoM, Calls it as he sees it, same with all of us. I think he deserves some kudos, its not easy being a Fiberal at the moment.
Oh the transparency, stand clear evidence based incoming…LOL
‘At a press conference in Canberra this afternoon, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd would not commit to increased royal commission powers for Mr Clarke.
“The Clarke inquiry is still under way,” he said. “I think we should be calm, temperate and responsible and wait for the outcome of that inquiry.”
…Last night, the police told the Herald: “The AFP has always been aware of ASIO’s position on this issue and the AFP will be providing its position on this to the Clarke inquiry and not via the media.”
Today, the inquiry hears from Ramzi Jabbour, the force’s head of counter-terrorism. These interviews are closed and transcripts of them will not be made available.’
Yuko Narushima
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/please-explain-haneef-mystery-thickens/2008/07/30/1217097296855.html
onimod at 364
Howard’s mob excelled at cutting off oxygen from media folk who did not toe the party line. They were also excellent at providing oxygen to the favoured few. I seem to recall freebie trips (for example on government-paid trips to Iraq), favoured access to newsworthy people, plenty of background briefings, and ‘inside’ scoops. The favoured few are now struggling to get traction because after ten years in clover they actually have to do some work and some thinking. How good they are at making the change can be judged from the anti-gg’s shambolic reporting of the opposition’s climate change response policy development. The reporting is nearly as confused as the reality. The basic problem for the favoured few is that they are still confusing ‘ought’ or ‘maybe’ with ‘is’.
I don’t hold any particular brief for Bolt, in fact the reverse, because of the damage he is doing in dumbing down rational public debate about CC. I appreciate opposition, dissent and informed debate.
Bolt picked early that the libs were doomed with Howard and went public about it. I agree that his bread and butter is a shock jock-type contrarian approach and stirring the pot. It is therefore a bit hard to judge when he is confecting and when not, but I believe that he was genuinely concerned about what was going to happen to the libs under Howard’s leadership and spoke out about it. It is useful to remember the context – apparent invincibility, a vast inertia, overt and covert patterns of media management with a liberal (sic) dose of fear and loathing. In this context, the rest of the Howard media hacks and most in the party room were either too thick or too gutless to do what Bolt did. Perhaps a weak benchmark, but I give him his due.
Sorry for the delay I stepped out for a bit.
Thanks Ruawake
Onimod I do stick by my statement in 365, “People I spoke to mainly said he’d been there long enough and it was time to give someone else a go. If Howard had stepped down voluntarily after APEC and hand the batton to Costello it may (repeat may) have been a different story.”
I acknowledge, the majority of conversation was between mates and work colleagues and that you’re right there may be a little bit more behind their reasoning than they were prepared to tell me in a conversation but I’m only reporting what was mainly said to me, I make no other claims.
I think that State Labor has it right and the Liberals should have learned the lessons of State Labor as soon as a party leader is poison dump him/her and move on this revitalises the party and people are once again re-engaged.
I can’t put it plainer then that.
Boerwar
I agree with 99%, but the idea that he’s doing what he’s doing out of any genuine concern is false.
It’s his job, and I defy anyone with 2 or more brain cells to do it long term; that’s all.
It’d be nice to think that journalistic responsibility correlated with their potential influence.
He was also more than a little late on the scene, and a lot of people had already done the thinking for him.
JoM, a question for you.
Who would you like to see as Lib Leader and why.? Is there anyone on the Coalition benches that can unite the party?
They seemed divided on so many issues.
The ALP has not lost a poll for so long and don’t look look being behind any time soon.
As someone who doesn’t vote conservative I find it hard to really listen to anyone from the opposition benches, I suspect a majority of voters may feel the same.
Red Kerry is skewering Brenda on the 7.30 report, poor sod.
JoM, that just sounds like twaddle. Howard was going to step down a year or two after the election anyway, so if those people who were sick of Howard really wanted Cossie then all they had to do was hang on. They clearly had more on their minds.
although not enamoured of brenda
i mean who would want to lead the fibs anyway
short of johnny’s deadhand engineering some mighty quadruple bypass
the fibs are now entering the last sad stages of the untimely demises of “menzies child”
i’ll be the first to say it
vale fiberals
You’re not wrong! Completely tearing him a new one
doh
should be demise not demises
Brenda making a total goose of himself.
The born to rule mob must be hitting the bottle tonight.
AllBull would just love it.
387 ouch. Nelson nearly lost it.
Sondeo I would like to see Costello lead the party in either the 2010 or 2013 election, which ever one will give him the best chance of becoming PM. Otherwise Malcolm Turnbull. Malcolm Turnbull appears to be a can do guy.
Uniting the party? Depends on how many votes Malcolm wins the next leadership ballot by.
Dario he was going to step down when it was in the best interests for the party then he was going to step down when it best suited him. He lost becasue he shifted the goal posts.
362 Turning worm. I have to disagree – there’s a lot of meanness and spit in his blogs
(and that William, will end my commentary on Bolt – I usually only link to him when he mentions an issue re polls/specific politics – i.e him arguing Nelson should do something in shadow cabinet – I’m not at all interested in discussing his anti-Global warming graphs – at least not on this blog)
394 JoM – but will the next ballot be an “anyone but Brendan” vote? i.e drowning man clutching at serpants time.
I’d say Turnbull will be expected to produce good polls quickly. There wouldn’t be a lot of love for him to fall back on in the party room.
BETTING odds on former federal treasurer Peter Costello taking over the Liberal leadership for the next election have narrowed sharply in recent days as Brendan Nelson struggles with climate change policy.
However, Sportingbet Australia says opposition treasury spokesman Malcolm Turnbull remains favourite to lead the coalition, albeit with odds widening slightly to $1.75 from $1.60.
Mr Costello is returning $2.50, in from $3.50.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24102570-12377,00.html
What odds that Brenda blows out due to his gaining a new end to his alimentary canal on the 7.30 report.
Grog excellent point, it may well be.
I don’t know why the Brendan continues on about CC and the ETS he should just palm off the question as Kevin used to do when opposition leader. Brendan should be saying we’ll see what more the government has to say before we make any judgeents.
Kevin what ever happened to putting downward pressure on prices: http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24101194-5017313,00.html
Where is whinging Wendy when you need her?
Kerry should have asked Brenda who is he to claim that Rudd will get it wrong in 2010 where he himself has no plan, no direction, no idea about CC and is a sceptic?
And on was basis can he justify his claim that the PM will get it wrong if implemented in 2010?
Brenda is a total laughing stock. Fullbull is an amateur. Cossie is all puff no smoke. I say recruit Latham for the Liberal Party. He could do a much better job.
JoM… who know what prices would be unless Kevin Rudd had put downward pressure onthem? I’d say they’d be much higher by now.
“Prices will always be not quite as high under a Rudd government”
On Brendan… my sister felt sorry for him. Steely-souled me didn’t bat an eyelid. The more this fraud of a man cops it, the better, as far as I’m concerned.
He chose his own path, he made his own bed, let him walk along/lie in it.
The funny bit was that not only has Brendan been trying to placate and say “Yes” to everyone in his own party, but tonight he was desperately trying to please Kezza. Jeeeeezzzzus! How desperate can you get?
Get RID of this idiot and let’s have some serious debate in our country about things that really matter. It’s embarrassing having to watch him.
edit before submit “what basis”
399 JoM
Yep it’s a no brainer, Nelson should’ve killed the issue dead.. wait to see how the Govt handles the implementation, and then come in with the “I think we need to rethink this folks” if it looks to be going bad.
He obvisouly thought he collected on the petrol rebate bet, and so he when double or nothing (and forgot to check the odds).
We live in a country with a market economy, are you suggesting that all prices should be fixed like in communism?
P’raps Brendon should re-consider being a G.P.. He sure as hell ain’t no politician. His performance tonight on the 7.30 Report was possibly the worst I’ve seen in a good long time. How does he sleep?
Meanwhile, the treatment of asylum seekers is changed to a more humane system, Rudd’s been on the phone till the wee hours trying to rescue DOHA, and a new High Court Judge is appointed – just getting on with it, resolutely.
BTW, for the first time in my life, I went and had a look at the blog of the person who shall not be named, just out of sheer curiosity. Reminded me of group treatment for the delusional – not recommended.
Grog at 393
Nearly? The do nothing careerists have come up with ‘principles’ instead of a policy. They think it means that they don’t actually have to say or do anything positive or definite while giving them a sniping platform. They think it means they can trim sails as required by the populist winds.
More likely it means that any slight CC credibility they had has gone. They should just have said that they would look at Rudd’s proposition once the details were on the table and once all relevant information had been provided. This is reasonable. They had plenty of time. The very silly thing is that after all the faffing around they appear to be practically on the same page as Rudd anyway, except for anything you can do we can do better.
Blindeye’s repetitious 7.30 Report ‘We’ll get it right’ begs the question of ‘Get what right?’ Bruffy’s gone huffy. Blindeye’s a goner. Williwillinot is waiting for Godot. Turnbullatagate must be pawing the ground.
The cesspit roils.
Centre – I have thought for sometime that the next liberal PM is probably not yet in the parliament. Looks more and more the case with each passing day.
Maybe the lib lord mayor of Brisbane will switch…..
ALL the possible candidates who are current MP’s have baggage of varying degrees.
Well Kerry! Well Kerry! Well Kerry!
407
dave Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Centre – I have thought for sometime that the next liberal PM is probably not yet in the parliament.
Has he been born yet ?
Dave, how about Phillip Ruddock? Apparently we have him to thank for Rudd changing the policy of locking up children in detention centres.
Thank you Al
Unfortunately sometimes the response here are no different to the responses on Bolt’s blog.
406 Boerwar…. well I was trying to be kind.
Mark Riley on Sunrise this morning (not usually how you want to start a serious point) said there’s not usally much sympathy for politicians, and none when the problems are all self inflicted.
Nelson must be praying for the Olympics to hurry up and start so we’ll all think about somethig else for 2 weeks.
If i was to give Sir Kevin some Barbarian advise , i’d say either lets NOT knock Brenda down too much , cause we reely do to want to face him in 2010 , or if we reckon Horatio is a lame duck , then lets kill him off quick so we allow enough time to demolish th next Liberal’s credibility Kindness is needed
Harry @ 405,
I’m not convinced Brendan does sleep. Those bags under his eyes are getting more and more pronounced.
His performance on 7:30 report was abysmal! He obviously has no clue about the issues surrounding climate change. And the Libs still haven’t learned what really cost them the last election: not listening to the public. The majority of Australians are all for an ETS, even if we do it before all the other countries. And yet they’re continuing on their merry head-in-the-sand way.
Oh well. Thanks Brendan for handing victory to Labor at the next federal election.
413 ron – agreed – remember the lesson of the Downer months
No, it was VERY funny. It’s a new genre – sit down comedy.
Ahhh… The Downer Months. Those were the days.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrFbtckAFyA
The Downer Family – Australian Dynasties
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUoADEsE4ZU&NR=1
Ok, Nelson goes, Turnbull takes over – what will be the newspoll bump?
53-47? 52-48?
Pref PM will he get close to 30%?
I think so. Currently Rudd has all the small l Liberals supporting him, Turnbull will peel some of those off.
The problem is, then the Right of the Liberals will be upset that Nelson got rolled, and will just create constant instability, which means eventually Turnbull will be in the same position that Nelson is now.
Of course if I was to give th liberals my barbarian advise , admittedly not supposedly as sophisticated as all dems politcal ‘experts’ , why would just ask one queston to th Party room:
guys yous hav 6 Brenda CC policys out there in July as we speak , and they ALL relate to post 2010 , ie after th 2010 electon , so why ar you hurting & arguing about which one when th electon is in 2010 , and after 2010 you can change it to whatever you want , it being non core
Tonight while being interviewed on the 7.30 report I felt sorry for Brendan Nelson. Kerry O’Brien nailed him but didn’t let him complete an answer. Nelson showed good grace to keep his cool but I suspect tonight has finished him as opposition leader. He was hopeless.
He stands for nothing and has no consistent ideological position. Nelson is trapped, a moderate who inherently believes in Labor values (look at his past) but who is propped up by the right wing of the Liberal party that despises Turnbull.
Brendan Nelson is a fundamentally decent man who is an inept leader of the opposition. He needs to be politically euthanised.
I don’t think Nelson is fundamentally decent at all. Maybe he was once, but not any more.
He’s just a chameleon, changing his colors every five minutes… literally. Good ridance to him. He’s now getting in the way of good governance. Even the Libs hate him.
Piers Akerman grew up in a leftist family, may have been a lefty himself when younger (not sure on that one) – and look at him now!
Tough call. Just because a person changes their policy position doesn’t mean they’re not decent.
I don’t know Nelson. I judge by gut feel and my instinct. I reckon he’s a good person but he’s a terrible politician.
Rudd attacks Nelson with a wet lettuce while Swan & co have been very easy on him. The last thing the ALP wants is a new opposition leader.
Showson @ 419
Agree. One of the really nasty things about being in opposition is that there are almost no lollies to hand out, no toys in the sandpit, there is nothing real to do, and there are very few options for smacking a recalcitrant on the botty. All a leader has is promises, and pollies know what that means. So, strange things happen.
The first is that to the pollies it looks like the words don’t really matter and then the pollies start to behave as if that is true. It becomes a self-fulfilling idea. Right now, who cares what we (the opposition) say about CC because we are not going to get to apply it, the Government is. The second thing is that the polly focus narrows down to what is happening inside the party – because it is the only place they can have an impact. The big egos have to get some sort of win somewhere. The folk at the extremes have a field day because they have nothing to lose and they think they can make ‘real’ gains within the party by getting extremist positions on the table.
From the outside it looks weird. Up close and dirty it must make some strange sort of sense. How else to explain the self-destructive behaviour of so many oppositions of all ilks? This opposition started reasonably well for an opposition, I suspect because it managed to maintain some discipline left over from their potty training days under Howard. I don’t believe the rump members of the ex-Iemma Government will do as well when they are first in opposition. The opposition discipline is now under severe stress because Blindeye has simply not grown in the job. Strange behaviour is on the way.
The future for climate change denialists. Nature isn’t going to stop just because they don’t believe.
425 Boerwar
Nice insight.
The pendulum has certainly started swinging.
It’s going to take a strongman to slow it’s momentum.
It is good to see one union body come out against the salary cap and in favour of Sonny Bill.
The salary cap is outright communism but big business wouldn’t care if it suits them. They would have restraint of trade and monopolies in an instant if they could.
That’s what we would get if we supported “small government” conservative ideology. No doubt, Labor are more aligned with, level playing field, fair referree (non superleague), capitalism than Liberal.
Oh, come on!
Nelson is the Ted Bundy of policy and allegience switchers. It’s catching up with him, finally, at last. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bloke.
The man stands for nothing except himself… and when you think how much of a stuff-up he’s made even of doing that, he’s still a complete fool.
Nelson is an empty shell and a positive danger to rational debate. Total spin. Total bull$hit. Total loser.
I don’t care if Labor wants him in the saddle because he’s a useful idiot. Get rid of him Libs, and do us all a favour. It’s painful to watch.
Te interesting thing will be how Rudd responds to Turnbull – he’ll have to play him different than he did Nelson (or would’ve Costello).
Obviously the ALPwould already be comming up with a strategy
http://austrolabe.com/2007/11/29/the-virtues-of-being-prepared/
but it will be good to see how Rudd and the ALP cope with a bounce for Turnbull – panic or comon sense.
If Turnbull takes the job I can see Labor reigniting the Republic debate to wedge him. He will already be on thin ice, hated as he is by many of the Liberal Right.
319
William Bowe Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
JOM @ #316: Indeed, Andrew Bolt has been mentioned on this thread nearly twice as often as Kevin Rudd. If anyone cares what I think, I’m getting a bit bloody sick of hearing about him.
How are they hanging Billy?
When the Krodent ‘calm, temperate and responsible’ letterbox & TV mania kicks in do you think the tone will turn?
I do.:)
Boerwar
#425
There ar many do’s and don’t’s when you go into opposition , but Nelson made the most basic within a week of becoming leader by a small majoritey He did not either stand up as Leader & make a CC stand on a CC policy he either 100% beleived in or on which he beleived was ’saleable to win an electon , thereby forsing th Party either to immediately dump him (imposible so early) or stand behind him
Instead like a poor leader , he has flip floped with th priority of trying to sustain & prop up his leadership , not realising that course is ultimately fatal Discipline starts at th top
Hollowmen was pretty good tonight
Yeah not bad James J – thought last week’s better but.
charles 426 Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
The future for climate change denialists
Thanks for that Canadian link Charles of a huge glacial sheet dropping off in last week I read today of th of Glacier National Park glaciers in US Rockies now at 1/3 of there 1850 size
More frightening was Fox & Franz Josf glaciers in NZ being a full 2.5 kilometres shorter than they were 100 years ago !
Didn’t see 7.30 Report , sounds like Brenda did poorly ?
charles @ 426 -
The future for climate change denialists.
That climate cooling they’re always on about sure does work in funny ways, don’t it?
If there is no salary cap the successful teams will get all the best players, and the unsuccessful teams will get the poor players. The unsuccessful teams will lose more games, and eventually go bankrupt, or require huge cross subsidies from the successful teams.
No sympathy from me for that inept fool Nelson!
He tried to curry favour with the extreme right of the Liberal Party, it has blown up in his face!
Tonight’s 7.30 Report was the funniest thing I have seen on TV all week, maybe all year!
438 ShowsOn. Yep, the salary cap essential or it’ll become like the English Premier League where every season everyone knows only 1 or 4 teams can possibly win.
I meant 1 out of 4 teams
And now Mike’s bother is getting it on Lateline.
Now Leigh Sales taking Hunt to task! Two in one night!!! HOW SWEET IT IS
Hunt says Nelson’s a good leader because he loves going to shopping centres in Camden and Packenham! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Yeah but he does it at 3am and sits in the gutter strumming his guitar
I’m gobsmacked!
Watching Nelson & Hunt tonight was like listening to one of those endless tapes which continually play the same thing over and over again with the same mind numbing, vacuous message.
Good to see them both challenged on what are two of the most woeful interview performances I have ever seen.
Although one of the final interviews of Howard by Red Kerry takes a lot of beating.
Dario & Scorpio
Lateline showed a clip of Brenda’s explanation on th 7.39 Report of there CC policy Now I know what it is
Brenda said they support an ETS in principle , it could start in 2011 , but it probabley will start in 2012 When Kerry asked could it also start in 2013 or later , and Brenda replied it probabley will start in 2012
So there ETS may start some time
ron, Nelson looked like he was tangled up in one of those children’s playground “jungle jims” and was worried that if he moved even slightly from the centre of it, he would break both his arms & legs and badly dislocate his neck.
Like a rabbit caught in the spotlight out in the open. Nowhere to hide, nowhere to run.
Gotyu.
Damn, I missed Greg Hunt tonight! Was he whinging again about his millionaire mates from Canberra who didn’t get the rebate for solar panels?
Reminder about tomorrow night’s Q&A: Turnball and Penny Wong appearing!
The Australian has the text of the press release form the Party room meeting.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/coalition-release.pdf
Hunt got beaten up by a girl….hahahahahahahaha
LOL!
Fair go, she is a woman, but he is only 15 years old.
Its pretty clear why the Libs keep on saying that they couldn’t have gotten an ETS going until 2011 and probably 2012. After weeks and weeks of arguing among themselves they still don’t have a coherent policy. At this rate a Nelson Lib government would struggle to get an ETS up by 2112!
The country had a very fortunate escape last November!
Yep, he just couldn’t resist
Yeah, Nelson seems to think it will take at least 4 years to convince part of his backbench that global warming is occurring.
Scorpio
did Kerry nail him the contradiction there seemed to be , in th 15 second Lateline clip i saw , no actual date to commence ETS ?
And guess who was egging Nelson on earlier this week? None other than our old mates Milne and Shanahan, the original News Ltd Liberal Party hacks!
O’Brien repeatedly asked Nelson if a Coalition Government would start an ETS in 2012, but Nelson repeatedly said that that was the hopeful startup date, but couldn’t promise it would start then.
So even after the shadow cabinet and party room voted yesterday and today, Nelson still won’t commit to 2012.
457 Ron, 7.30 report is here:
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/
thanks Steve , I count the times ShowOn !
Sorry ron, been over having a quick look at Jack’s blog and JA’s.
Nelson just stuck on the same talking points memo. So no.
JA is giving the Libs a bit of a spray in the Oz.
{The hard-headed Liberals who have long prided themselves on being the philosophical backbone of the party seem to be running around like little boys who have lost a father. With John Howard gone, they appear to be wandering around aimlessly, no values leading them, just polls yanking them this way and that. There is no conservative force in the Liberal Party anymore. At least not in Cabinet. Two years out from an election, a Newspoll that reveals that most people support an ETS – even though there don;t know what precisely it means for them – has them shaky in their boots. Their surrender to Labor explains why there was much unhappiness in the joint party room when Coalition MPs met on Wednesday. But by then it was too late. The Coalition leadership team had nailed their Labor copy-cat climate change policy to the mast.
And talking about leadership, where does this capitulation leave Nelson? Ten days ago he was marking out a policy that was predicated on a realistic appraisal of what the major emitters do. It is not a mark of strong leadership to cave in to the nervous Nellys who want to copy Rudd and quibble over start dates for an ETS. Nelson may have taken up the views of some within Cabinet, but he only looks weaker for it. He will not have garnered an ounce of extra respect from his constant vacillation on what will be the single most important issue at the next election. If Nelson’s days as leader are numbered, he has only himself to blame. }
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/doh_think_doha_think_climate_change/
Steve & Scorpio
went though th transcript , 5 times Nelson avoided the appology , and 11 times Nelkson avoided th 2012 as a definiite start date Left out Kerry’s interruptions of Brenda which made him look so evasive Thats one of th worst politicans interviews I’ve seen ? how could he survive embarrasing LCP ?
OMG… I mean…OMG…
Brendon, just give it up man
ron, it looks very much like the Coalition party room decided that they were going to remain divided on the issue and that the best strategy they could adopt would be to try as much as possible to direct the issue back on Labor, hoping to relieve the pressure on them and score a few points at the same time.
It won’t work. They are the issue now and they will have a devil of a time getting this monkey off their backs.
{Opposition Treasury spokesperson Malcolm Turnbull says attention should shift to the Federal Government now the Coalition has thrashed out its climate change policy.
Mr Turnbull says he is pleased with the outcome of the Coalition’s five-hour meeting today.
“The party room has endorsed the decision of the shadow cabinet, which is very good,” he said.
“We have a very clear position and we will now focus solely on holding the Labor Government to account.”}
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/30/2319394.htm
Meanwhile, Rudd and Co are getting on with the business of governing the country and trying to make things better for all Australians.
{Australia and Chile will sign a free trade agreement, the first finalised by the Rudd government.
Chile’s Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Alejandro Foxley, who arrived in Australia on Monday, will sign the agreement on Wednesday at Parliament House in Canberra.
Australia will be represented by Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith who described the agreement as the most comprehensive FTA the nation has negotiated.}
http://news.smh.com.au/national/australia-and-chile-to-sign-fta-20080730-3n0g.html
Brendon Nelson = Dead Man Walking.
Scorpio
just in case you were not live at th time , for your reference , FINNS at #313 posted an excellent summary of free trade agreements broken up into “existing” , “under negotiation” and “under consideration” After World Trade Assocaition talks collapse over threshold price , bi lats seem best available course at present
yes Steve , lame duck he looks now
More Newspoll
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-31jul.pdf
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24104901-601,00.html
LOL! Bill Leak so good:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,6172455,00.jpg
Notice where the speech bubble is coming from!
The story from the poll data is that Rudd is thrashing Nelson on all issues and, disturbingly for the LNP, Rudd is seen strong on every issue. That is a lot of stuff to overcome before the next election. And it is in spite of the media attempt to under mine Rudd.
I guess Rudd gets the benefit of incumbency at the next election and there will be no narrowing as before, their being no Howard mystique to cause the electorate to hesitate.
They run with the Rudd 10 point increase in arrogance to 43% as the headline story. As we saw with Howard arrogance is not a bad thing. I would say it would be desirable to be seen somewhat arrogant if your the leader of a nation. Rudd needs to get his arrogance/tough rating up a little more.
Shows On and Grog re 438 & 440.
Yep, you are both right. And whose fault is that? The game is no longer a non profit organisation which acts for the good of the sport, it is now owned by a publicly listed company.
And here we have a public company, who answers to its shareholders, enforcing a trade restrictive salary cap. Compare that with work choices? Unfortunately the game stopped being a sport and became commercialised when it was raided.
Amigo Ronnie, i think we have to move on regarding the Coals. i am sick and tired of hearing and talking about them. Because it is now patently clear that the COALS has NO policy on CC/ETS. What they have is simply a policy to use CC/ETS as a short term, expedient political tool to win some political points with the punters. We all know that the punters will not wear it, so why do they bother at all. They are not even prepared to give the Earth the benefit of the the doubt. It is pathetic.
#443 – Dario: [HOW SWEET IT IS] – i can only assume you are talking about Leigh Sales.
Janet Albrechtsen:
Nice… and from a Board member of the ABC too.
That little black number Leigh had on last night was quite distracting. Never seen her lovlier.
Perhaps the liberals will get their party back yet.
Why is everyone so surprised at how woeful Brendan is? He only got the job so someone expendable could take the flack afetr the election loss until it was time to put a “real” leader in. Trouble is they don’t have one.
The Newspoll figures on Rudd’s rating v Nelson on various characteristics, and the trend in the state and quality of the opposition is quite disturbing. I wouldn’t like to think that we are heading for another decade of an increasingly arrogant and unaccountable party in Government. We need an opposition that is credible enough to hold the Government’s arrogance in check and which keeps the level of policy debate at a useful level.
Great call on the experience issue William.
Shanhan’s comentary is errr interesting.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24104901-601,00.html
Shanahan:
Seing as the “Arrogance” mix has increased since the last poll from Rudd-33 v. Nelson-48, to Rudd-43 v. Nelson-42, the headline should have been:
I almost felt sorry for Brenda as Uncle Kerry was savaging him last night!
The mercy rule should have been imposed before the end of the interview LOL
And, I know I’m biased, but where is the evidence Rudd is arrogant?
Progressive… the evidence is every time he opens his mouth.
Bravo progressive 482 – no one does it quite like you!
449
Progressive
Leigh Sales giving Mikes brother the rounds on lateline
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/
If that poll had been held this coming weekend it would have been even worse for Nelson, with the last two days of flip flops.
And the govt might be seen less arrogant if MPs/Ministers replied to mail from constituents–a theme in some News.com blogs is not getting replies–institutionalised arrogance!
Just on MSM relevance, this is the lead story at SMH online at the moment:
So, the non-fatal assault on the soap star gets top billing, and the bludgeoning and kicking to death of a mere chef in his own front yard by the same pair of thugs comes in second.
Is it just me, or is this a rather sad indictment of the way the MSM sees things today?
Amazing the convenient short memories.
In comparison to the likes of Andrews, Brough, Howard, Costello, Ruddock and so forth who were developed arrogance to an art, in Parliament, the Senate and in front of the camera; Rudd would should seem as that nice boy from across the road.
To say that he is arrogant every time he opens his mouth tells more about the commentator than the subject. It is a plainly a rediculous asseration.
Oh and I how could I forget Downer.
It’s pretty easy to forget Downer TP
487 BB
As I waited at the doctors thesis morning I thumbed through an issue of Australian Scientist from last year. There was an article about Media Monitors doing work on the input of scientists into the water debate that basically illustrated the same problems – that the media’s motives are divergent from the idea that they’re a benefit to the community. The suggestion was that the political input into the debate was so over-weighted that it had totally obscured the supply of impartial information, and yet there was a demonstrated thirst for that type of knowledge from the community (not to mention some flat out wrongs stated by the most influential figures who should know better – Iemma was front and centre).
I’m not surprised Nelson and Hunt look like kindergarten kids on the issue of CC if they’re relying on the MSM for information on the subject. Thank goodness that school teachers have kept their end of the bargain in the last decade.
There is no doubt that what the MSM is doing is profitable, so I can’t see things changing. Take a look at a TV presenters salary and tell me exactly how that relates to their contribution to our society please?
‘thesis’??? – try ‘this’ instead
Dennis Shanahan has been appointed Professor of Implausible Spin in the Department of Politics at The Australian. This is in recognition of his consistently impressive performance over many years. His take on Tuesday’s Newspoll reached new heights, and today’s assessment of Newspoll’s ‘How we see our leaders’ maintains that lofty standard. When he can in all seriousness say: “Mr Rudd’s perception as being in touch with voters took a heavy hit, falling 13 points to 73 per cent, while Dr Nelson’s rose five points to 44 per cent.” one can only be in awe of his chutzpah. Kevin Rudd must be quivering after that heavy hit, which has reduced his ‘being in touch’ rating to just 73 per cent, only three quarters of those surveyed, of which close to 20 per cent would have to be Coalition voters.
Dennis’ credibility would improve from the low base he enjoys if he moderated his language, if instead of using ‘heavy hit’ he simply said: “Rudd’s perception as being in touch with voters fell 13 points to 73 per cent.” That would be factual and the reader would be left to interpret its significance. But his seemingly irresistible urge to take a swipe at Rudd repeatedly exposes his incurable bias, and evokes the ridicule that is heaped upon him by countless bloggers. One is left wondering if he enjoys the flagellation.
Centre are you around?… Can you please tell me where I can place a bet on the Lib leaders?
For sheer gobbledegook Brendan Nelson’s performance on the 7.30 Report last night took the cake, until Greg Hunt appeared on Lateline and surpassed his boss. Why do they send this boy on what is clearly a man’s errand? Like an earnest schoolboy, he had his new lines rehearsed but unfortunately they didn’t match the questions posed by Leigh Sales, leading to an understandable level of exasperation seldom exhibited by her. Earlier, Kerry O’Brien had exhibited even more exasperation trying to pin down Nelson.
If the Coalition had deliberately set out to create confusion about its climate change policy it could not have done a more proficient job. The further they go the worse it gets. By now I expect it’s only the political tragics who are paying attention. For entertainment it’s almost as good as Clarke and Dawes; for information transfer to the general public, it’s worse than hopeless. The main players would be wise to give it a break for a week or two; I notice Malcolm Turnbull avoids the climate change debate whenever he can. Smart politics.
Thomas Paine you can’t say someone is not arrogant by comparing them to other people. It’s possible for someone to be less arrogant than another whilst still being arrogant. Most leaders of political parties will be arrogant and Rudd is no different. Let’s just hope we don’t have to put up with him for 11 years and Labor will transition properly.
494 classified
Sportingbet Australia:
http://www.sportingbet.com.au/uipub/sport.aspx?l1id=34&l2id=850029&l3id=850030
Thanks onimod
496 LTEP – It’s not a question of whether a leader is capable of arrogance – we all are – it’s a matter as to whether they display it or not and I would argue Rudd doesn’t. However, if you can point to examples of his arrogance I may be persuaded.
Those figures on Rudd’s arrogance were provided by the same sample that has the government and Rudd a mile in front on a number fronts. Maybe a little arrogance is a positive thing
Just put $10 on Julie Bishop
Janet in Brisbane debate.
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/07/30/plugs-2/
Rudd needs to increase his arrogance. People equate that with being powerful and effective, I believe. Never hurt Howard.
Would you believe Sydney?
LTEP: You haven’t changed your spots since November, still bagging Rudd, I see!
This is from the same individual who spent all of last year predicting a Coalition victory.
471
ShowsOn
LOL.
Just wonderful, in a way that only Bill Leak can be.
493
Ad astra
[Shanahan's] take on Tuesday’s Newspoll reached new heights, and today’s assessment of Newspoll’s ‘How we see our leaders’ maintains that lofty standard. When he can in all seriousness say: “Mr Rudd’s perception as being in touch with voters took a heavy hit, falling 13 points to 73 per cent, while Dr Nelson’s rose five points to 44 per cent.”
His spin just gets more and more blatant, obvious and unrealistic.
Amigo FINNS
yea you’re right nothing is going to happen with thems , even Uncle Rupert says earth deserves th benefit of doubt , but not thems if it interferes with scoring some politcal points
The Kyoto crusade against selfish US politcans must continue , cann’t let th adulations for mighty US pollies go unchallenged , when one reads this another sad CC story Amigo ?
” A chunk of ice about 18 kilometres square has broken off Canada’s largest remaining ice shelf the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf of Ellesmere Island in the LAST week The piece had been a part of the shelf for 3000 years ”
http://www.theage.com.au/world/huge-sheet-breaks-off-canada-ice-shelf-20080730-3n9j.html
Progressive I’m not ‘bagging’ Rudd. I’m merely providing an objective viewpoint on him… that is, to me he seems arrogant. When someone asks you “Is Mr X arrogant” it requires a completely subjective analysis, that is, do you think she/he is arrogant. This could be based on anything, from the way someone talks, to body language and facial expressions etc. To say that ‘evidence’ is required to think someone is arrogant is hard to understand.
It seems many here fall into the same trap as those who labelled anyone who criticised Howard as a ‘Howard hater’. They simply cannot allow people to criticise the leader of a party they support.
Now if ‘quack quack’ would like to leave his “born to rule” blog throne , and come here & argue wiith a barbarian , well see our good his plume words of empty denier quacks go against th barbarian lingos of CC
LTEP.
Got to say I agree totally with progressive on this and
disagree with you.
“They simply cannot allow people to criticise the leader of a party they support.” Not true – I found Keating arrogant. I know arrogance when I see it and I don’t believe Rudd displays those qualities. I must say I really didn’t agree with notion that howard was particularly arrogant. His workchoices policy, the way it was introduced, was an arrogant act but overall I don’t think he was any more arrogant than most. I’m buggered if I can see arrogance in what Rudd has said or done so far. Please point out any act of arrogance or how he displays this arrogance in you opinion.
I’m merely providing an objective viewpoint on [Rudd]… that is, to me he seems arrogant.
Ah, um, er…
Nah, doesn’t matter.
Spot on Gary. LTEP talking out his rear end I believe.
Gary
you hav shown a complete disregard for LEP’s position , so i must jump to his defense
Now what is LEP left here , a Poll LIBS 43% to ALP 56% , his exalted leader Nelson’s PPM is 14% to Rudds 66% , then Newspoll runs another 10 categorys & Nelson gets smashed in 10 out of 10 categorys
So LEP says #508 “I’m merely providing an OBJECTIVE viewpoint on him” And I just love that word ‘objective’ So next time you critisise LEP gary , i’m here to objectiveley assist him
Ah ha!…. The Australian has got Rudd this time, you see, his arrogance etc is all because of his family roots!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24106618-601,00.html
The OO talk about arrogance like it’s a BAD thing lol
The perception of arrogance and strong leadership go hand in hand don’t they?
Kev still seems like the affable nerdy type to me though.
I reckon he’s only arrogant to the suck’ole meja and they can’t hack it, ooo poor didd’ms. they been trying to bring him down for nigh on 2 years now and nothing seems to work hahahahah.
Don’t reckon this latest “Rudd out of touch & arrogant” campaign will do much either. Probably go the same way as those stripper pensioners.
DISSENT magazine or wast it The Australian Rationalist last year provided a very good description of the way Howard ‘used’ language.
Arrogance comes in dismissing, ignoring or belittling stakeholders as though they didn’t matter or were somehow inherently bad. I believe the way Howard used the Parliament and Senate was arrogant – basically neutering all debate and review.
471
ShowsOn Says:
July 31st, 2008 at 1:32 am
says
“Notice where the speech bubble is coming from”
Would it be outa one of those new holes Kerry ripped for him?
Just in from the AEC:
514 ron – I know you’re “defence” of LTEP is tongue in cheek and you make some very good points but the one thing LTEP isn’t is a conservative supporter. Last year this became clear. He in fact is a negative thinking Labor supporter I believe.
Qualitative polling usually (and should) asks the “what do you think about…” type of question. I suggest that if you asked about KR’s personality, arrogant wouldn’t be anywhere near the forefront in peoples minds. But ask whether he IS arrogant and the question becomes polar – yes or no. At 48%, just a tad more than the rusted ons (2PP) says little, as the term is seen by most as a pejorative. Nothing enlightening here.
And by the way, ask five people to define arrogance and you’ll get five different answers. To say Keating and KR are both arrogant rather proves this point.
Gary
#520
thanks Gary , did not realise , that changes th dynamics alot I think perhaps LEP then may misunderstand politcal ‘arrogance’ I always thought Keating & Captain Smirk were both politcally arrogant
Keating could almost be allowed to be , because he was a brilliant politcan
especially in parliament , slaying th liberal hordes daily , and with a cheeky grin I loved Also Paul had ‘mettle’ both in policy & in being prepared to challenge
On other hand , th clone Costello I thought , as Rx said last nite , was a pale imitation of Paul Keating in a parlamentary sense , had a Captain Smirk smirk not th cheeky Keating grin , and had no ‘ticker’ either in policy or being prepared to challenge Keating’s ‘tip’ was apt And not that i take notice of ‘arrogance’ & likeability’ questions , but 43% is “equal” to th 43% 2 PP Polled Liberal vote , we’ll take th 57% 2PP !
I think we need to distinguish between arrogance and simple egotism/ambition. Almost every politician would be guilty of the latter, but without it they’d never get the job. I don’t think Rudd comes across as any more arrogant than other politicians of his generation. Perhaps less so. I think he has some faults, but not that one. I have heard him described as “mild mannered” and that isn’t a characteristic I’d line up with arrogance. If anything, he is at times too bland; he’s an ex-diplomat, not an ex-merchant banker, ACTU lawyer or rock band manager.
Who makes these lines up? Are we being used a a focus group to test run the next Liberal attack sound bytes? If this is the best they can do, give up.
Does anyone remember the way Howard ran PMC and the rest of Canberra? Not exactly humble. Nor were Hawke or Keating either. Calling Rudd arrogant is just silly.
agreed Socrates.
Boring-yes, arrogant -nuh.
This new story in The Australian about Rudd’s ancestors being convicts has to take the cake.
I know it could be looked at as “fun”, and that many of us have convict ancestors somewhere or other, even that having convict ancestors is fashionable…. but we all know the Australian doesn’t muck around joking when it can put the smear on Rudd.
OK, so maybe I’m too leery of an otherwise innocuous story.
BB every Newscorp journalist will have their own version of the story out shortly the way things are shaping up.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24106991-5003402,00.html
I think Rudd having a convict ancestry makes him less arrogant.
… and in the SMH under the headline:
Expect Bolt to get a hold of it soon enough… then Pies.
Boring-yes, arrogant -nuh.”
No not boring , he’s our Clarke Kent , and when he throws dems cloths off th kryponite man of policy cometh out
Bushfire Bill
#525
thats reely a positive storey on Sir Kevin politcally , not that News Ltd may hav meant it that way Having a ‘rogue’ past is a plus , I mean think of a coresponding story on Dolly being printed , a negative , Dolly descended from some Lord Dolly of English Manors of chasing hounds so to speak
Ah, the old Ros Kelly style of Policy Development lives again. Someone phone the Pineapple Party and explain how simple it all can be done!
“In the party room, West Australian backbenchers Wilson Tuckey and Dennis Jensen moved disagreement with the shadow cabinet’s decision to support an emissions trading system, while some backbenchers were angry that no written policy was presented to the meeting — which then proceeded to draft one. Mr Hunt and Ms Bishop wrote on a whiteboard as Dr Nelson dictated.”
http://www.theage.com.au/national/nelson-fudges-2012-date-for-start-of-carbon-trade-20080730-3ngb.html
Yeah, Ron, in my heart of hearts I realise that. God knows I’ve been critical of Rudd recently, but this kind of stuff – cute stories, smarmy, ironic headlines – is designed to be deliberately taken the wrong way.
The idea will soon be put around that in the Rudd family “once a gang of thieves, always a gang of thieves” and so on.
I’d like to have seen a bit more examination of Howard’s family shenanigans, in the recent past, not the 18th century: links to the New Guard, dodgy copra plantations provided by the taxpayer etc., not to mention a far too cosy link-up with the Exclusive Bretheren by Little Johnny himself.
“I was in a good mind to have chucked her down the necessary (another term for privy) and I wish I had done so,” she said.
Shows the Rudd clan has a bit of spirit.
This story about Rudd having ‘colourful’ ancestors a few generations back cannot possibly hurt him, and may even help him a little. If you dig far enough back in anybody’s family tree you’ll find such people.
Hmmm, what does arrogance mean in the context of a political poll? There is some stuff I garnered from the web below. One thing that stands about arrogance is that it is based around ideas of how a person in a position ought to behave relative to persons in other positions. It is therefore about preconceptions of status and about perceptions of behaviour relative to status.
So, each individual would have some expectations about appropriate behaviour for a person who is a PM in different contexts. The expectations would depend on context. PMs might be expected to: kiss babies, shake hands with punters in supermarkets, listen politely to punters, behave formally with visiting o/s dignatories such as popes, take journos and bloggers with a grain of salt, and so on. They would in general be expected not to spit the dummy, swear or get stuck into people generally regarded as being least able to defend themselves. Perceptions would vary on the starting point of the perceiver. Some would like it when the PM eats a snag, sinks a beer and cheers at the footie. On the other hand PMs are expected to win, or at least give as good as they get in Parliament – a bit of roosterism, crowing and so forth, is tolerated in the cockpit.
In the pattern above, arrogance is not only about the potentially arrogant one, but is also about the strength and status of the arrogantee. Thus there is an expectation of a person who understands relative status, understands fairness and shows some sensitivity to lesser mortals. I suspect that gaining the epithet: ‘You’re up yourself.’ is fairly dangerous for pollies.
So, it is not an area where it is going to be easy to have absolutes or objective measures. Discussion about whether Rudd is arrogant need to be clear about the benchmarks being applied. It is an area where perceptions count. In my perception Rudd is generally not arrogant but at times looks a bit close to being intellectually arrogant. In terms of whether arrogance is important for its impact on voting behaviour, I suggest that the different elements of ‘arrogance’ probably need to be broken down. I suggest that one of the things that hurt Howard was increasing perceptions of arrogance in the sense of his no longer listening to what ordinary people were thinking, CC being the prime example, and ‘You’ve never had it so good,’ being another one.
So, if I was Rudd and I got a 13% increase in my arrogance rating I would be pretty keen to unpick it.
Definitions of arrogance gleaned from the web:
Arrogance: Making, or having the disposition to make, exorbitant claims of rank or estimation; giving one’s self an undue degree of importance; assuming; haughty; — applied to persons
Synonyms — Magisterial; lordly; proud; assuming; overbearing; presumptuous; haughty
1. Having or displaying a sense of overbearing self-worth or self-importance.
2. Marked by or arising from a feeling or assumption of one’s superiority toward others: an arrogant contempt for the weak.
[adjective] having or showing feelings of unwarranted importance out of overbearing pride; “an arrogant official”; “arrogant claims”; “chesty as a peacock”
Synonyms: chesty, self-important
It’s just shoring up the base – the ones who care more about what others think, rather than their own thoughts and actions.
Definition of arrogance from a Fiberal point of view:
“a Labor politician thinking he/she can govern effectively”
Check out this “urchin”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Dme-8Abwxk
Typical smear from News Ltd, but it won’t work, Australians take pride in their convict ancestry!
I am sick and tired of the journos asking the pollies for a “GUARANTEE”, eg:
* A G for that ETS will start at 2010
* A G for that no punter will be worse off
* A G for no petrol price increase under ETS
etc etc etc
There is only ONE guarantee in life. You and I will die one day.
Onimod #535:
,
They’re trying it on Obama too. Same thing as Rudd’s “full of himself” for Obama read: “presumptuous”.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/206241.php
… for taking to soldiers, for criticising McCain, for visiting the head of the Federal Reserve etc. etc.
What next, “uppity”? I seem to remember this being applied to Rudd also.
Don’t forget how much HUBRIS Rudd was demonstrating (when ahead in the polls by 10%)
Quick quiz: who said this (and about who)?
“I don’t think people are really taking him terribly seriously any more, this sort of nonsense about convicts and so on,” he said on ABC radio.
“Look, I’m a South Australian. South Australia was never a convict colony, so, you know, I’m very relaxed about what people say about convicts.”
I think that should have read “and about whom” … The error is due to my convict heritage, clearly.
IW
Its got to be the ex Lord Dolly of Mayo.
Is Brenda a relative of Baby Face Nelson?
540 BB
Obama is on a whole other planet to Rudd, and in a different universe to McCain. The video I saw the other day of Obama hanging with the troops in a gym in whatever war zone showed that there is just no better unscripted performer alive today. It was really really powerful stuff. That he could shoot 3 pointers with ease…no wonder he’s got a voting problem with white working males!
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/07/a_look_at_the_presidential_can.html
Back to Oz
I remember at APEC Rudd basically acted as though he was the PM – I thought that was a touch arrogant, and boy did that mess with a few Fiberal powerbrokers heads then.
I’ve been trying to avoid the MSM of late (and yes my mood has improved markedly) so I don’t have a clue where this arrogance stuff is coming from – I haven’t heard anything about Rudd since parliament rose.
Maybe there’s a bit of political plagarism being dragged across the pond?
There’s no one at helm at LP HQ, that’s for sure.
Seven News reporting Costello has knocked back a $2.1million job. Surely he must be sticking around in politics.
546 James, not prepared to take any job anywhere for any price?
Mate, I’d need to go as far as the next room
Next, we’ll have the Madmonk accusing the hammock man of being a ‘job snob’.
The by-election for the South Australian federal seat of Mayo will be held on September 6.
William, I liked the “has he been experienced” update….
James J
Costello would not want to move to London, Tanya has supported him for so long do you expect her to give up her job?
On Rudd’s alleged arrogance.
I noticed some telling body language behaviours by him on the occasion of the indigenous welcome to the opening of Parliament.
He ‘allowed’ the indigenous people to precede him as they entered.
Alpha white males don’t generally do that.
He responded obediently when he was motioned forward by the indigenous person preceding him.
Obedience to ‘lower rank’ persons is not a sign of arrogance.
He easily and comfortably lowered himself down to the eye level of an indigenous child who presented him with something.
Lowering down to a ‘lower rank’ person [and children are 'lower rank'] is not a sign of arrogance.
He gave precedence to the indigenous woman who gave the welcome, deliberately hovering well in the background, ‘allowing’ her the spotlight.
Not a sign of arrogance.
I’m not a fan of Rudd by a long shot [except by contrast to his predessor] but he rose in my estimation of him as a person that day.
In the opposite direction to ‘arrogance’.
When Pope Beni had his do at the docks, Kev was there but sat 3 rows back with some Canadian pilgrims and no one knew he was there!
Arrogant buggar!
of course he is vera
he should have stood!!! ,)
James J at 546
Any info on what company made the offer? I want to buy shares in their competitors.
Not this would be arrogant.
“Kevin Rudd should be using his Mandarin skills to demand that Tiananmen Square is thrown open to the fresh air of democracy without any conditions.”
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=9&ContentID=88281
Not, not should be now.
Don the job was with the World Gold Council in London.
Shanahan’s…
“Mr Rudd’s perception as being in touch with voters took a heavy hit, falling 13 points to 73 per cent, while Dr Nelson’s rose five points to 44 per cent.”
Opposition leader for “being in touch with voters” is on a par with his 2PP!
Therefore only his supporters feel he is in touch. No surprises there.
Both leaders should be largely “in touch…” and well over 50% . It’s not an either/or question – and for Nelson to be just rising to have the support of only the Coalition voters speaks volumes.
I don’t know hoe many column inches, and how many man hours have been devoted to the opposition CC ‘policy you have when you’re not having a policy’, but Clarke and Dawe managed to sum it all up pretty succinctly.
Pretty easy stuff though – they didn’t even need to resort to irony or sarcasm.
This definitely appears to be the angle that News Ltd was aiming at with the “convict” story and the way that they presented it.
{Well, well, well, not surprising really, its in the blood and KRUDD is aready ripping off us Aussies and he has only been in half a year. By the end of his term we will all be begging on teh streets while he enjoys the spoils of his thieving Labor government.}
and this;
{It’s a pity that we can’t transport Pope KRudd back in 2008.He does seem to be carrying on the family tradition, however using legal means this time. He is taking the money from the young with alcopop tax and he is taking it from the old with upcoming carbon tax. }
and this;
{He now might have to say sorry for the “stealing generation”. The Ruddy gang, who stole sugar and underwear what a wild pack of mofos they were! Mr. Rudd wouldn¿t steal anything like sugar he believes he stole something far sweeter¿victory from Mr. Howard in the last election. Now if he could just steal his popularity back he could be the most wanted man in the country. Who cares really? They’re called convicts! As opposed to con men…}
And that is just from the first 3 commenter’s.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/comments/0,22023,24107578-662,00.html
So the tip knocked back $2m?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24108016-2,00.html
I doubt it – first who would be dopey enough to pay him $2m?, and London is struggling more than Asutralia in the credit crunch, there wouldn’t be $2m going for any has beens, let alone one not known for hard work.
Grog, if it sounds too good to be true…the source of the story wasn’t a building with a big Blue L on it was it?
Yes steve, it sounds more like his head hunters trying to talk up his price.
539 The Finnigans – I liked Evan’s response to “Can you guarantee …..?” There are many things I can’t guarantee. I can’t guarantee the sun will come up tomorrow.
Greg Sheridan is getting on the climate change sceptics bandwagon now.
The position taken by a number of News Ltd commentators seems to be in conflict with the purported public stand of the company’s proprietor.
I wonder why that is? Very open to conjecture.
Sorry, forgot the link.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24103307-7583,00.html
Scorpio I suspect the proprietor is having problems reconciling two contradictory elements, his new found ‘greeniness’ and his assertion that News Ltd spreading that word is ‘good for business’.
Ah, I see where he is coming from now. A bit of a leg up for the corporate sector.
{Second, we can encourage every bit of useful technological research. All those carbon capture trials are well worth doing. }
{I’m quite happy to have the Government interfere, through regulation and modest tax, to encourage these things: the right sort of light bulbs or fuel efficiency standards for cars. Taking measures such as those and changing our land-use patterns have resulted in a big cut in our per capita greenhouse emissions during the past decade.
Four, we should sell uranium to India.
All that’s a prudent policy. Anything much more is probably irresponsible, with far too much danger for far too little benefit.}
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24103307-7583,00.html
This Costello versus Nelson versus Turnbull thing… makes my head want to explode with the inanity of it all.
They’re the Three Gutless Wonders.
One too scared to say anything upsetting. Another too scared to stop talking. The other too scared to even stay in the country.
All of them: terrified. And over what? Who might get to lead the Liberal Party?
It’s hard to believe they fancy themselves as leaders at all. Especially of the nation? Especially of this nation. Cowering on the concrete, heads down, bums up, squabbling over the scraps of their own party.
Make it stop! Please!
Costello is causing Nelson all kinds of problems at the moment.
I didn’t know Happy Hammocks Pty Ltd offered Cossie a job.
But does he have the GUTS to actually challenge!? Or is this his usual carping from the sidelines routine designed to arouse Glenn Milne?
talcums on qanda with penny
he should have been a snake oil salesman
572 GB He is causing the Liberal party all kinds of problems at the moment. If he does take over the first question should be why did he decide to let the party flatline for 9 months?
The best article on this is by the wonderful Annabel Crabbe:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/annabel-crabb/annabel-crabb/2008/07/25/1216492729366.html
“What is it about this political leader, this has-been, this never-was, that continues to attract the dreamers so?
…
People – PEOPLE!
Extensive laboratory testing has already been carried out on this particular rat, who didn’t move a whisker even when the job was worth having.”
I got something scrabbling about in my ceiling.I hope The Rodent hasn’t moved in!
574 “Or is this his usual carping from the sidelines routine designed to arouse Glenn Milne?”
Or did a piece of paper with this story on it fly over the fence as Milne was walking past LNP headquarters?
onimod 545 Says:
July 31st, 2008 at 6:02 pm
540 BB
“Obama is on a whole other planet to Rudd, and in a different universe to McCain. The video I saw the other day of Obama hanging with the troops in a gym in whatever war zone showed that there is just no better unscripted PERFORMER alive today”
“Performer” is th operative word Americans voted twice for a ‘B’ Grade actor Ronald Reagan to be President You got to look what US politcans actualy say & what there policys say , not how pretty they sound
Both that McCain guy & Obama do NOT support universal healthcare Both do NOT support ratifying Kyoto Both have chief economists who are ‘right’ of john Howard
They support big US finance firms sending Americans out of there houses
Obama’s senior economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, a former Uni mate of published an article in The New York Times pointing out the virtues of SUB Prime mortgages “These innovations mainly served to give people power to make their own decisions about housing, and they ended up being quite sensible with their newfound access to capital.” And newfound lost homes
Our Clark Kent , Sir Kevin is fine in comparison to US politicans , thet do not care about CC , only carre about votes & protecting US capital
And just what channel was that Costello story on? “Grain of salt” comes to mind.
in 2007
re 494, Classified, I have just read your post.
Betfair. I know someone who got $9.50 for Manly to win the grand final and $9.00 for that weak individual All Puff-No Smoke Costello to lead the Fibs at the next election. Both good odds I reckon.
I think one of Nelson’s problems is that his office {away from parliament} is just down the corridor from Howard’s tax payer funded free office and according to the pundits Nelson spends a good deal of time with Howard when he gets beckoned in, now what better revenge could the rodent have than to use Nelson to finish destroying the party thats dumped his policies.
ok I know, I know — but I’m a sucker for conspiricy theories!
Vera
577
“I got something scrabbling about in my ceiling.I hope The Rodent hasn’t moved in! ”
No chance Vera , the Rodent had no idea of quallity
James J
546
“Seven News reporting Costello has knocked back a $2.1million job. Surely he must be sticking around in politics.”
James , Seven News is rated the most inacurate , the “million” was added in error
Sad to see penny wong have to defend her government’s discrimination against her.
Thanks Ron you old sweet talker you
548
Classified
He he.
James J, their all sick in the head. Why do you want to get married for? It will cost you a fortune if you get divorced!
Forget the politics for a moment qanda was the best entertainment I’ve seen for a long time.
Now, getting back to the politics –
Tim Flannery finally put to bed the notion that he supports nuclear power in Australia. Rubbish.
And even though I’m a Green’s member (and why wasn’t Bob there?), Penny Wong is an impressive, albeit hamstrung, politician.
(And a gorgeous woman to boot.)
And yes James, that’s one of the issues she is party-bound by.
Oh no Jen, do you play for that team as well?
A first for me: on Q&A tonight, there was at least one position from
every panalist (apart from Tony Jones – if that counts) that I found
myself in agreement.
Good episode. Kudos.
Tony Jones is a tool! Sorry, but I haven’t been able to abide the man since his disgraceful performance on the ABC election night program.
I’ve got a lot of time for Penny Wong, Turnball is one of the better Liberals out there(which means the right wing thugs will ensure he never gets the leadership), and Catherine Harris I would have liked to have heard a lot more from.
The channel 7 story about Cossie being headhunted to run the World Gold Council just doesn’t add up.
The chairman has only been in the just for 4 months and there is no indication the CEO is leaving.
Compare the backgrounds and expertise of the current WGC management with Cossie’s CV and the whole thing just doesn’t seem credible, IMHO. He’d be a very square peg.
Jen, how’s the horsey on the G Island? Penny smiled, smiled and smiled and good, good and good for her.
Tony Jones is a tool!
Nothing to add; just liked the echo
Onimod: “but Clarke and Dawe managed to sum it all up pretty succinctly”.
The problem is that the Liberals’ dithering confusion is beyond satire. I’m reminded of the incomparable Tom Lehrer who reputedly reacted to Henry Kissinger’s Nobel Peace Prize by retiring, saying something to the effect “I can’t top that”.
Penny Wong handled herself with class , she would not hav stood for pre selecton if she was uncomfortable with Labor’s community view , notwithstanding herself , so don’t think she feels discriminated against Tink she is one of the best appointments Sir Kevin made
Mayo
share your skeptisism re Smirk story , maybe some ‘backgrounding’ to rebuild Costello For all his known faults , Captain Smirk would be a formidable politcal opponent than Horatio , especialy in the public’s mind (not ours) if th economy gets difficult
Amigo ronnie, Cossie does not even have the ticker to accept a $2m job. He is too chicken to accept the responsibility comes with the $2m job. Just like he is too chicken to write the book himself, he has to ask his father-in-law to help him to write.
True. The IPA bloke had the best idea – privatise marriage, something I’ve argued for here previously.
The so called marriage defenders promote an incoherent concept of marriage “it is based on social custom, BUT IT NEVER CHANGES” (as if society doesn’t change!)
Turnbull’s idea was also incoherent “a permanent union between a man and a woman”. Um, how can something be permanent if it can be ended by a divorce? Does he want us to believe that the word permanent doesn’t mean what the word permanent means?
However, I think that Penny Wong is right, the public just isn’t ready for a change yet. Like other social progress, we will need to wait for some old people to die off before it achieves popular support.
The only Government regulation of marriage should be to stop parents marrying children, and siblings marrying each other. Other than that, consenting adults (18 years old older) should be able to marry whoever they like.
This is untrue. She has argued vigorously against the Government’s policy from inside of the ALP.
It is impossible to argue that the marriage act doesn’t discriminate against homosexuals. It is legalised descrimination plan and simple, people should at least be able to admit that, even if they support it.
This explains a lot about the controversy that the blogger who can’t be mentioned generates. It’s all about attracting hits on his News Ltd web site.
{Thanks very much for all your support. The figures for the month aren’t all in, obviously, but we’ve already cracked the million: 1,077,334 hits for July.
Thoughts on this probably in tomorrow’s column. Your own are very welcome, as always. }
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/
Mayo
maybe the jewellery division wants costello
you know all flash and show but no real purpose or use
Ron, believe it or not, I agree with you: Penny Wong handled herself tonight with a lot of class!
So much for Turnball’s committment to equal legal rights for gays, why didn’t anyone tonight mention that the Liberals blocked this legislation in the senate?
Presumably more of Nelson playing to the mad right wingers to prop up his failing leadership.
Good point. Wong should’ve mentioned the fact the Coalition says they support it, but sent it into committee limbo.
Personally, I am growing tied of the gay community trying to hijack everything that holds a society together.
Marriage is for hetrosexuals and primarily exists to create a safe and nuturing environment for new life – a new life that is created from the love and commitment of a man and a women to one another.
Homosexuality is a lifestyle, not a life! In statistical terms they are an adnormality (outside the norm). If they were the norm, human civilisation would disappear in a number of generations. So gays, get real and if you want to live together, go for it. Just don’t try to pervert an institution that is at the very heart of a stable and healthy society.
Thats right Progressive , she stood on a party platform she privately disagreed with , but probaley knews the community as far as the Party thinks is not yet ready for her view , and tonite supported that public policy
Only a special person does that , and that is diferent ShowsON to what you mentiond ie she’s has pushed it internally to change a community view & stick up for her principal I believe she to fight similar on & for CC
Hi all only saw the show to 30 seconds, saw Tim Flannery was on. Did anyone ask him why none of his predictions have come true?
Nice try Freddy. But you might be more successfully provocative over here.
The Finnigans
#599
“Amigo ronnie, Cossie does not even have the ticker to accept a $2m job. He is too chicken to accept the responsibility comes with the $2m job.
Yes , I was abit naughty saying Captain Smirk knocked back a $2 job I honestly believe he is waiting to be ‘drafted’ to th Leadership job , the “born to rule ” syndrome Yes Amigo you are right , he has not th ticker to actualy challenge & publicly fight for it
Nice try JoM. But you might be more successfully provocative over here.
Let’s face it that is the way the party system works. You argue a case within the party, vote on a policy and defend that policy to the death whether you personally agree with the final outcome or not. Penny Wong argued the case put by her party and did it much skill and grace. That doesn’t make her a bad person. That is the system and they all do it.
If Penny feels strongly about the issue of gay marrige there is always the greens.
I feel gays should have all the entitlements hetrosexual couples do bar marriage.
Hi John, hi Freddy.
613 John – I agree with that.
Gary Yo, yo, yo wat’s up?
No we;re not one and the same. Freddy is entitled to his view as we all are.
I never thought I’d every write this, but I totally agree with you, John of Melbourne (Re:613)
Cheers Gary
You too Freddy
Well, fine Vera at 288. All that you say may well be so, however I would prefer a total repudiation of the detention policies of any government one would care to name. I damn well hoped for Kev to lead, smartly, on this issue. That would be, cut it out! Cannot do half baked. Trying to win over the eedjits…does not work! Just stop it, and the eedjits can deal with their problems.
The dills with whom I keep company are unhappy with this new policy. They think our shores will be swamped, oh mi god, yet again. Still scared a la Howard, gee, Kev could send a new what is it, magnetized demon warding off thing, which we could hold before us in case of emergency.
If we happened to be wearing something which attracts magnets, though probably would not allow us through a check point if we happened to want to get on a plane. Or in my most ghastly recent experience, attend at the Magistrate’s Court. More of that later, if I can bear to relate the reason I was made to appear. Jeez!
Ghastly, et al, because as a little lass, I worked there. Everyone went to and fro in my little lass days, but now, guess what? Had to go through a thing detector. Security staff and all. At least they did not oblige me to take off my apparently beeping shoes.
Kev is playing the wrong game here, should just forget the old Howard crap and get on with real life, ditch the shit. New life.
Are you referring to the divorce rate?
So are you suggesting that impotent men, and sterile women are no longer allowed to get married? What about people who can’t reproduce because they have AIDS? It seems you want to discriminate against a lot of people, not just homosexuals.
The same could be said about heterosexuality, or celibacy. They are lifestyle choices as well. But anyway, I have no idea what this has to do with marriage.
You mean like people with red hair, eyes with different colours, and people who can’t roll their tongues? Should we discriminate against those people as well because they are genetic minorities? Or maybe you should just tell me who to count as normal, so we can give those people rights that everyone else can’t have.
I think you need to rethink your ideas a bit, because at the moment you are advocating mass discrimination based on both sexuality AND genetic disposition.
In contrast, I believe that everyone enjoys universal human rights simply because we are all born equal. I don’t think some people have rights that other people don’t enjoy. This is a much easier position to defend rather than your assertion that we should discriminate against people just because they don’t act like you.
‘the love and commitment of a man and a women’
Is there a half time break?
Norm is gay, Freddy.
Which means you don’t believe in universal human rights, which means you don’t believe in liberalism, which means you don’t believe in democracy.
Any political party promising to legislate for gay marriage will be crucified at an election. It’s a no brainer, like it or not!
ShowsOn excellent point… but I feel my statement is what we are likely to see in the near term as I think that is what the majority will allow for now.
I agree if you are referring to the next election, but in 3 or 4 elections from now? I’m not so sure.
It is one of those issues like Aboriginal land rights, or the apology, or anti-discrimination act, or giving women the right to vote. It’s time will come eventually, we just have to wait for enough old people to die, because it is very strongly supported by people under 30 or so.
With some public issues progress is only every slowed, it can’t be stopped. This is one of them.
True. But I was debating whether it is right or wrong to discriminate. I am interested in what is the right and moral thing to do, not what is politically easy.
The apology to the stolen generations wasn’t clearly a popular thing to do, but it was the right thing to do from a moral stand point. Then after Rudd did it, 60% of people said it was the right thing to do.
Sometimes when politicians lead, the public follows.
John of Melbourne 613
“If Penny feels strongly about the issue of gay marrige there is always the greens.”
John , like bob Brown for th Greens , Penny has a set of policy principals that
committ her to Labor policys , she’s a class politcian and NOT a one issue empty headed Pollie like Pauline Hanson
2/ Re your Tim Flannery barb
An 18 kilometre square chunk of a Candaian glacier that had been joined for 3,000 years , broke off last week when it arrives at your front door , you just might tink CC has happened
http://www.theage.com.au/world/huge-sheet-breaks-off-canada-ice-shelf-20080730-3n9j.html
Everyone knows that it broke off because it got really cold because of global cooling, and it just wanted to move closer to a heater.
Ron I think the ice sheet broke off because the ice sheet could no longer sustain the shear forces it was experiencing. It’ll be replaced by another.
Damn, I tried, but you’ve done it again; your explanation is funnier.
JoM
of course you ar right , after 3,000 years it just happened to coincide with th 50 years out of th last 3,000 years when th world has coincidently warmmed Logic says you ar wrong , so does mathematical probabilty if you’ve studied that subject
OR this
“ie th IPPCC , being tied to 90% plus predictions , by logical scientific extension actualy had to be conservative , like th example below
“Many scientists now believe that the Arctic will have ice-free summers by 2013 instead of 2030 as predicted by the International Panel on Climate Change”
(source same story)
Ron in relation to you ice sheet: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,394282,00.html
On the credibility of climate predictions:
Abstract. Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.
http://www.atypon-link.com/IAHS/doi/pdf/10.1623/hysj.53.4.671
I forgot to add this in. The blogger explains there is still a lot of ice at the North Pole: http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/07/30/polar-ice-check-still-a-lot-of-ice-up-there/#more-1938
JoM
if you study th origins of consevative politcal Parties , they go back to a Portugese Scientist called “Quack Bolt-imo” , who sailed Ferdinand Magellan in 1519
Magellan’s voyage proved th world was round The scientist Quack Bolt-imo still would not what he’d seen that th World reely was round So he formed th first Conservative Party supporting a ‘flat earth belief” Had he got killed on an Island , like Magellan on th way around , there would not be a Brenda Nelson today , or you
I think New Scientist magazine sums up the problem with misinformation. But I believe a lot of misinformation just gives comfort to those who rejected the notion long ago for whatever reason.
[When a supposedly factual TV programme on global warming contains fabricated climate graphs, dozens of false statements and frequently misleading content, you might think it would be in breach of broadcasting standards.
“The Great Global Warming Swindle.”
The programme was first broadcast in the UK last year and attacks the idea that human activity is responsible for global warming. It has since been sold to 21 countries and widely circulated on YouTube. The film-makers fabricated parts of graphics of climate data shown. They also made many false statements – such as that volcanoes emit more carbon dioxide than human activity – and misrepresented the views of several scientists.
Ofcom upheld three complaints relating to individuals or organisations being treated unfairly. It also ruled that the programme breached rules relating to impartiality.
Despite this, Ofcom decided that the programme was not in breach of any rules relating to accuracy. Only news programmes have to be presented with “due accuracy”, says the regulator. It does not matter if other factual programmes are misleading, so long as they do not cause “harm or offence”. Most viewers would have been aware that the views expressed were at odds with the scientific consensus, it added.
Climate Change – Want to know more about global warming: the science, impacts and political debate? Visit our continually updated —-
New Scientist – Special report:
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/
JoM the glaciologist. ’shear forces’ is good.
Oh, I know what to do! Thinking of replacing stuff. I live 188 steps from the beach. And am capable of carrying two buckets of sea water to pop into my freezer…..and then work from there to transport it, via Arctic sans Ideas, to the broken bit.
Whaddya reckon?
Crikey Whitey what do you mean you live next to the sea? Don’t you know you’re going to get swamped by rising sea levels? AS the Iron Maiden song goes… run for the hills run for your life!
John of Melbourne 634 Says:
August 1st, 2008 at 12:28 am
“I forgot to add this in. The blogger explains there is still a lot of ice at the North Pole”
Of course there is , otherwise your home would be under water , with th 18 Kilometre square glacier chunk floating on th water above
What sort of argument is that , there is still lot of ice there ? But There IS AS A FACT now an 18 square kilometre glacier chunk not joined now after 3,000 years !
This point you tried unsuccessfully to sneak around by saying th obvious that “there is still ice there” , now John reely that was a lame effort
Quick look out Titanic iceberg ahoy!
Stress lees, it will be replaced.
The sceptics if proven wrong in twenty years will have the luxury of saying sorry and then all will be well and fixed. The blogger who can’t be named will no doubt make excuse for his anti-CC crusades by referring to a couple of dissenting scientists.
I have a friend who still believes that smoking doesn’t cause cancer! She is a smoker and senior public servant – just shows how much we are willing to delude ourselves to reject change even in the face of overwhelming data.
I see the Courier Mail is on an anti – Quentin Bryce binge, while Michelle Grattan sums up the Libs woes.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/the-week-that-was-has-left-the-libs-in-a-bigger-mess-than-ever-20080731-3nyn.html
Jombie, you can be a silly boy. I checked out, years ago, the likely effect of global warming/sea rise levels as would affect my area. Whilst my particular part of the coast seems pretty safe, cannot say the same thing for Glenelg, a few Ks away, but in a danger zone. It is not only global warming, sea rise etc, but the way in which the land slopes. Sad to say, demonstrated in recent years, as Broadway in Glenelg was deluged with rising sea water, unheard of hitherto.
JoM
I’ll take it that my #640 delivered th “Barry Hall” to your lame point “there is still ice there” vs mine , there’s an 18 kilomentre chunk not there now from last week after 3,000 years
But just to build up your arguments next time re CC , i’ll borrow a storey patented by my good mate bloger Scaper
John , an asteroid called Apothis will be a near miss in 2029 and could hit us in 2036 It is four hundred and fifty metres wide…but th real problem could be th quack hitch hikers
Ron did you expect the ice sheet to be there for eternity?
From the article I attached it said cracks first appeared in it in 2002 and they slowly got bigger now I don’t know what created the cracks in the ice be it global warming or be it other means but I will not assume nor take it for granted on some blind faith that global warming was the sole contributor if at all.
It is well known ice flows move, it could simply be that the ice flowed to a point where it could no longer be supported by the ice behind it and as such ruptured in an area of lower resistance, over time the crack propogated and the ice sheet came free.
JoM
#646
“Ron did you expect the ice sheet to be there for eternity?
From the article I attached it said cracks FIRST appeared in it in 2002″
John , you ar simply boxing yourself into a diminishing box
YES , they did first appear in 2002 that was my point ! as my link stated For th prededing 3,000 years there were no cracks Now 3,700 IPPCC scientists say with 90% PLUS certainty that th earth has warmed considerably in th last 50 years and th cause is man caused CO2 Those scientists predicted th logical consequense would be ice melting & glacier chunks dropping off
Whereas your opposing argument its just a coincidence after 3,000 years that this 18 square kilometer chunk occured coincidently just coincidently in th 50 years when th Earth has significantley warmed
I do not know how you could put up such a lame point , but you’re locked into it with dimishing credibility According to Newspoll you represent 3% of th population , gien th 3% MOE you 7 Quack Quack are heading into zero % teritory
you AND Quack Quack
Is it half time yet, I’m fckued holding society together. Let alone ice shiites.
Ron, where is your good mate scaper these days? Seldom seen here any more.
I’ve seen him on News Limited sites from time to time extolling the virtues of his grand (undefined) plan, and dropping a few names of his legion of celebrity admirers, but he really has made himself scarce here lately.
What’s going on?
643 “I see the Courier Mail is on an anti – Quentin Bryce binge”
It’s a staple diet of the Courious Snail to run beatups of her staffing arrangements. I think the trouble is that Quentin Bryce won’t stand fools while the Courious Snail loves to back fools.
I do read with some amusement calls for the makers of the climate change denial movie to be banned for inacuracy. Can you imagine if all TV shows had to have some factual basis for their content. Firstly all those Wacky shows about some Virgin and a Donkey, some old dude in some as yet to be identified other realm, would have to be banned,.(Not a bad idea actually, maybe we could have a National Geographic on a Sunday Morning)
There are various stages of psychological development, firstly we nut out that the easter bunny is not real, secondly we nut out that there is no (John of Melbourne, you may not want to read any further as it may involve information that you might find distressful) father xmas, later the fully developed adult realises that there is no God etc. Now those who reach this stage of development look knowingly to each other as a rather pointy heading group with our society trot of to church on a Sunday etc etc. Now there are problems with breaking down some of these delusions, they give people a sense of certainty, a child like faith. They find it strangely reasuring etc. Some have a crisis when faced with evidence that there is no such thing and its all rot. Many deny the clear reality for all there lives, .
It is within this framework that, unfortunately, I think we have to consider the rather bizarre collection of deniers, and the priest of this rather bizarre church who is pulling in the $ from his preaching. The thing that is even more bizarre here is that there is evidence all around us of climate change. It highlights one of the broader problems around many of the right wing arguments, they create arguments that help them explain behaviour that even they must know at a deaper level is immoral. Slavery is a great example. Not giving Women the vote is another., How’s this for a cracker. Women are not allowed to be priests in the Catholic church as there was no man at a dinner 2000 years ago, or thats what some other man wrote. We are dealing here with various degrees of Madness.
Oh by the way I advise that people don’t respond to there arguments, they are just cutting and pasteing stock and rather bizarrely written rubbish.
Cf that 18 sqkm chunk, some points. (I think I have them right but I don’t mind being corrected, I am not a very technical person.):
1. If the chunk melts it will make no difference to the sea level. Floating ice already displaces now all the water it is going to displace when it melts.
2. Mentioning the 18 sqkm in isolation feeds into the notion of the more paranoid sceptics that the debate is one-sided. Sea ice around Antarctica is trending towards increasing extent. Sea ice extent in the Arctic is trending down in extent but the extent graph for Arctic sea-ice extent looks like something going over a cliff, while the Antarctic one looks like a slight uphill incline.
3. The chunk will be replaced by the coming winter freeze but it will be replaced by one year ice which will a whole lot thinner than 3000 year ice and which will melt that much faster in the following summer. This is significant because it will increase the annual window for positive warming feedback relating to the albedo effect.
4. The notion of ’shear’ being the explanation is a very elegant red herring. All chunks of ice that depart the main body ’shear’ off by definition. It is a symptom of forces, not a force.
Like others on this string I liked the thought of separating church and state on marriage and also admiration for Penny. Penny for Prez!
Let the state manage the contract law relating to marriages. The parties could call their individual contract whatever they want – marriage, civil union, contract for the management of sexual, cooking, cleaning, child rearing, financial services, nursing the sick, and so on.
The contracts should be constrained only by two principles. The first is not allowing contracts between parents and their children. Polygamy and polyandry contracts should be allowed. The second principle is that the word ‘love’ should not be mentioned. It just confuses the legal issues.
The contracts could set a time – might be a year, seven years, life. They should, as a matter of course, have specific exit arrangements.
There would need to be a bit of sorting out but the Government would probably need to move towards providing entitlements on a per person basis, rather than on a couples v single person basis. This would probably increase the cost because the Government currently saves money by providing smaller entitlements to a couple than to two singles, but it would be fairer.
Churches could then perform religious marriages as per their particular beliefs, could call them what they like and could put whatever constraints they like based on their religious convictions.
For those who may be intersted, I came across an article in the Cosmos magazine regarding research on Gay brains.
http://www.cosmosmagazine.com.au/news/2048/gay-brains-resemble-opposite-sex
“The brains of homosexual men resemble those of heterosexual women, while lesbians’ brains show similarities to those of straight men, new research shows.
The study, published today in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is among the first to investigate physical attributes of the brain, themselves not explicitly linked to sexual attraction or behaviour, in the context of sexuality.
The work offers an important contribution to the ongoing discussion surrounding sexual orientation, said the researchers, neurobiologists Ivanka Savic and Per Lindström, from the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden.”
That shelf was the last of the Canadian Arctic ice shelves!
I am just wondering how people would view a TV documentary called ‘The Great Smoking Swindle’, using the same tactics that the other program did to cast doubt on the scientific assertions that it causes cancer, emphysema etc.
If they are able to scare up data and doctors/scientists they can present in a way to support their theory then I guess that is ok. If it has the effect of stopping from quitting or not stopping people from taking it up.
An isolated event cant prove anything as most will happen at some stage in earth history. I think it is wrong to look around in the here and now for clear evidence of CC & GW on the planet though we can look over periods of time.
The smoking annalogy works well with this. A smoker wont know they are getting emphysema. A insidious creeping increase in shortness of breath is easy to put down to other things, one off events – cold, flu, lack of fitness, aging etc.
Eventually it gets to a point when enough of the lung is damaged that they have shortness of breath just walking around. But it is too late to do anything and though giving up will stop the acceleration of damage, the after effects of smoking means the damage to the lung will increase still. Their quality of life is irreversibly ruined and their life span shortened and so on.
Carbon and CC/GW would operate a bit like this. Cause and effect are hard to spot by taking a snap shot in time; damage can be inferred by assessing longer time periods and the likely causes assessed. The longer time progresses the more able you are to assess cause and effect. The scientist takes into account all the data they can and assign probabilities of cause and effect and likely future scenarios.
We are told there is a high probability that there is CC & GW and that it is in large part caused by human activity and, that it will get worse if we dont take meaningful action now. What is at stake is the future of mankind on the planet.
It is not hard to join the dots of chaos if probabilities turn into facts.
I am in no position to say that all the scientists are wrong or can I pick and choose scientists that dissent as a smoker might. I am bound to follow the consensus simply because of what is at stake.
I would rather follow them and be wrong than not follow them and be wrong.
Maybe GW is the cause of this particular chunk of ice falling off. But that is really not the point. We are not trying to prove somthing through a single incidence viewed in isolation.
Freddy, you get the award for the most ridiculous argument I have seen on this blog. So let me get this straight (no pun intended), if a gay couple were to get married, it would undermine the institution of marriage and create an unstable and unhealthy society???
The mind boggles. Marriage is simply a contract of commitment between two people. What you are saying is that gay people undertaking such a commitment to stay together as a stable couple will undermine the stability of society and somehow weaken the marriages of heterosexual people.
Freddy, it’s a big bag of worms. Rather than trying to create a credible argument out of it, why not just say you are opposed to gay marriage (or civil unions) because you don’t think gay people deserve equal rights. That’s the real reason. And then leave the issue of human rights to those who actually have a clue, and a heart.
Everyone has the right to be treated as equals, whether gay, straight, deaf, blind, fat, thin, red-haired, or whatever. Inclusiveness is what brings about a stable society, not prejudice or discrimination. Instability comes about when particular groups are treated worse than others, which then leads to friction and conflict. If you continue to support inequality, then you are doing exactly what you apparently don’t want – adding your voice to those that undermine a stable and healthy society.
Centre @590
which team do you mean?
I am a member of the Greens. As for the other Team -the one Penny is on… what’s it matter:grin:
He-he…
The Nameless One thinks he’s on a roll. I was waiting to see how long it would take for someone to assert that Labor government are just unlucky, economy-wize.
Freddy – what a tool.
What’s happening to PB??
Climate Change sceptics (ie uninformed ), homophobes, religious fanatics…
sounds a bit like the Blog That Shall Remain Nameless is infiltrating this hallowed site.
And r/Ron- while we have had our differences I absolutely agree with you at the moment. Although I’m not quite as adoring of Kevin as you are, I’m mightily impressed with Ms Wong – even for a green.
Finns- it’s a very pleasant pasture to graze in over there – but I need to get mty local politics fix too, so you’ll have to put up with me here as well (even though Wiliam thinks I’m worse than Adolph).
btw- where’s Grinch?
663 Jen, its just that they are in a flap because the Libs have dealt themselves out of the Climate change debate by naming miriad dates after the ETS will be implemented. Made themselves irrelevant on the main issue.
Open the floodgates and it all pours out.
Some people come here for a little insight into polls and the politics that surround the polls. Other people seem to come here to debate policy issues, such as climate change, Iraq and, now it seems, homosexuality. I suppose to each their own.
Speaking directly to issues of leadership, seeing Hewson refer to Costello as having ‘no balls’ (his words not mine) is most definitely true. However, I can’t much stomach either Nelson or Turnbull (who both seem complete political lightweights) and think Costello would make a good interim leader until someone credible comes around.
Steve – they have been irrelvant on every issue since November 24 2007.
they are an absolute joke of a parlaimentary team.
They have the whiff of the GWB syndrome about them – incompetent morons who finally got found out.
I feel for Malcs – I might not agree with the guy, but he is so muche progressive than the Howardites, and he would be left to try ad find a team of performers out of the most lackluster bunch I’ve ever seen in poitcs. He should run a mile.
love that number
William was right.
It’s only a matter of time and the polls will start to reflect the heightened level of disunity their poor policy has produced.
666 ha!
Redistribution of WA seats.
http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2008/wa/proposed_report/index.htm
Hardly. It was 18 square kilometres of a 440 square kilometer ice shelf. That’s about 4%.
LTEL, with deadweights like Costello, Andrews, Ruddock, Abbott, Bronwyn Bishop,Iron Bar and Minchin {with his puppetmaster complex} hanging in there, where’s the “someone credible” going to come from? theres certainly no one of that description in the libs right now, Mayo is’nt going to bring in new blood, the candidate there is an ex Howard staffer who was into forming work choices right up to his neck, i would like a strong opposition to keep Rudd’s team on their toes and remind them why we voted for them, the libs need a new broom to sweep out all the dead wood so they can bring in new blood, until then they will be irrelevant.
judy – once they’ve swept out the dead wood they’ll be left with the dust.
They need a breeding in captivity program to get back from oblivion.
Exactly Judy Barnes. It’s a shame there wasn’t more of a cleanout at the last election. There’s not really one decent, electable potential leader within the party it seems, unless you look at people with less experience or public visibility, such as Mr Georgiou. In a few years time I think we’ll need to see someone fresh, at the moment every move the Opposition makes is predictable and doesn’t ring true. It feels as if they don’t even believe the lines they’re reading which is a big problem.
Also makes you wonder if the party is filled with conservatives why they just don’t be unashamedly conservative, which would at least be believable.
That’s the problem with a leader like JWH. He wanted to lead the Howard party, not the Liberal party. He remade it in his own image and now he’s gone they’ve got nothing.
It will take a long, long time for the liberal party to recover from Howardism and I wonder if they have the time. If the greens move aggressively to the centre the coalition might find itself relegated to third part status.
But has he gone,dogb? Just down the corridor ffrom Nelson,calling him in for chats? Wasn’t Abbott his anointed one? Has been quiet of late.
A whiff of the Machiavelli around this mess?
Jesus megan you just made me shiver.
It’s like the end of every action movie when you just know the bad guy isn’t really dead and you’re just waiting for him to spring out and make one last attempt to kill the good guy.
Someone should stick a stake through his heart so we can all sleep better.
LTEP@674,
Petro Georgiou, a thoroughly decent man, who’s courage and integrity while challenging the detention issues while in Govt, could attract moderates across party lines .
But from the way he was sidelined, there is not much comfort.
Hartcher is doing his best for his friend Pete.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/peter-hartcher/peter-hartchers-blowbyblow-account/2008/07/31/1217097424361.html
Megan, i must admit i wonder about that, Howard still seems to be pulling the strings by proxy, with his utter egotism there is no way he’ll recognise that he’s all but destroyed the liberal brand and perhaps he’s still trying to rule via Nelson, the problem is, as a politician Nelson would probably make a bloody good doctor lol, the guy has’nt got a clue on how to take a stance and stick to it staring everyone else down, you have to admit Howard was a past master at that, Nelson seems to take on board the opinion of the last person he spoke with—working through someone like that would be Howard’s idea of hell, pmsl, maybe there is such a thing as karma.
Hi Jen,
You can side with any team you like. Whatever tickles your fancy.
I will say it, there seems to be a lot of gays on this site? Not that that is a bad thing! This is becoming like a Seinfeld episode
The OO is gunning for Nelson big time.
Shanahan -
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24110305-17301,00.html
Print Matthew Franklin and Patricia Karvelas -
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24110431-601,00.html
Remember this – the idea was for Costello, Downer, Ruddock, Vaile etc (who weren’t going to be part of the shadow front bench) to mentor the new Opposition leadership team.
But Downer’s gone. Vaile’s gone. Ruddock is probably wrapped in a white sheet lying peacefully somewhere cool. So the mentoring is being done just by Costello.
Peter has done a sterling job. The Libs have never been such a rabble!
I remember 83/84 and they were streets ahead in professionalism then – when newly in Opposition. But the party then contained the odd level-headed wet.
Not so these days.
672
AMEN! Judy
It appears that Horatio Hornet may be the only one that is able to stand at the box as L leader at the moment as he may not have any skeletons in his Harley saddle Bags.
It will be interesting to see who, if any, do put up their hand to lead. Reason being that labour have been there for 8 months now and it would be interesting what sort of “Treasures” have been uncovered on the beaches of the relevant departments.
They would all be aware of their own “treasures” and are well aware that their “treasure” will be thrown right at them when the appropriate occasion arises.
Things like;
Why do you want to be leader and PM Mal? Have you found another rainmaker friend who is a bit short of a few mil.
Why do you want to be PM Tip, do you want to do some more money trading and lose a few more bil.
One would assume, that with their reckless way of government and spending, that there is a mountain of ‘Treasures” that are waiting to be uncovered or have been already.
They are all s&it scared to stand at the despatch box as leader trembling while they wonder when it will come back to haunt them.
That is why they were all scared of the king rat and no doubt he had something over them all which made them very wary of challenging him.
The only way the liebrals will mean anything to the future of Australian politics is for Horatio Nelson to clear the decks and start with a whole new breed of fresh faced liebrals that do not yet have the ability to hide behind a corkscrew.
I do not think they are squabling over who wants to be leader, they are squabling over who can be put up as leader with the least “treasure chest” that will damage them further.
No wonder the polls are like they are!
IMHO
Rant over for this week.
As much as I think Nelson is inept (you need to work in the Higher Ed sector to see his true ineptness) I don’t think it is him that is destroying the party. To give him his credit, he has tried to move away (or at least be seen to do so) from JWH policies. It is the number crunchers like Robb, Heffernan et. al. that has the libs stuck in time. Until the libs flush out these semi faceless backroom lovers of Howard, the libs will only keep going backwards.
Tom.
I sooo want Tip to take the job.
He’ll be utterly hopeless.
What can I say, I’m inot blood sports.
http://news.theage.com.au/national/costello-never-had-leadership-balls-20080801-3o9a.html
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says he doesn’t have a clue whether or not Peter Costello will seize the federal Liberal leadership.
“I wouldn’t have a clue. I mean, it’s been a while since Pete’s called me for some advice,” he told Fairfax Radio Network.
“The problem with the Libs is not personality or even structure – it’s policy.”
Mr Costello left Australia with inflation running at 16-year highs and 10 interest rate rises in a row, he said.
“And, he has been a lifelong supporter of Work Choices.”
http://news.theage.com.au/national/nelson-will-lead-coalition-to-election-20080801-3o8e.html
Dr Nelson also refused to reveal if he knew the intentions of former Treasurer Peter Costello who has yet to announce if he will stay in politics.
He said while he would like Mr Costello to stay, the former treasurer had earned the right make a decision that was in the best interests of himself and his family.
This ‘earned the right’ stuff really ticks me off. Those throwing the word arrogance around are looking in the wrong direction. I’d say that the people of Australia have earned the right to more ethics and more brains.
One would assume if Mr Costello had no desires to lead the party he would’ve stated this publicly some time ago, or at least now. What is stopping him from putting out a press release backing his leader and stating he has no desire to lead the party?
Leadership stories do not go away unless you make them go away.
While I’m at it I think the Liberals could do a lot better than having Julie Bishop as deputy leader. Complete dead wood with absolutely no selling points to the general public. Perhaps put in someone who is less well known but with TV marketablity.
Tom 685
I agree, that is why it will take so long for the Liberals to get back. They have to ditch half their front bench and back bench first. But these “servants of the people” won’t go till their snouts are dragged from the trough kicking and screaming. Of course, the insiders have gotten themselves very safe seats too.
Heffernan goes without saying. It amazes me too that Robb’s standing hasn’t diminished, given the stunts he’s been caught out on (remember the “unregistered candidates” lie he tried just before the election.) When you see the likes of Alex Hawke recently elected, they show no signs of changing.
dogb @677says
“It’s like the end of every action movie when you just know the bad guy isn’t really dead and you’re just waiting for him to spring out and make one last attempt to kill the good guy.”
You reminded me of an old movie where the mad scientist guy (Rodent) had his head cut off and kept alive in a jar and sent his lackey (Brenda) out to kidnap him a new body. The unfortunate victim was a big black guy who woke to find he had 2 heads.
The media love affair with Captain Smirk continues!
Some of these so called expert journos are being shown up as incompetent hacks!
Cheers Centre –
re: lots of gays here – wouldn’t have a clue. (how can you tell??)
Ther’s a couple of out and out knobs though
What new talent is there on the Liberal back benches?
Alex Hawke? LMAO
Hey, they’ve still got Fran Bailey, maybe she can be rushed back to the front bench LOL
Mainly on the front bench of the Opposition.
Not to forget the odd back bencher – my favourite Mrs Mirrabella being a prime example.
They honestly have no hope.
Smirk won’t take the job, he’s a gutless bully, loved dishing it out , ran a mile when the power and protection of government was lost. Besides his ego wouldn’t allow him sit day after day in question time and be humiliated by Kev Swanny Tanner and Julia. You only have to look at him squirming and turning his head away sitting on the back benches to realise what a wimpy coward the prick is.
Regarding the coalition “policy” on climate change, it really is amazing that pure expediency isn’t enough to convince them to stop the skepticism at this stage. I recall that something like over 80% of Australians now think it is an issue that must be dealt with. How can you get elected ignoring that sort of number?
The really ironic bit is that it is precisely all those welded on conservative rural seats that will suffer the most economically from climate change.
696 vera, don’t hold back. Say what you really think. LOL. I agree.
Finally Freddy 606 gave me a chuckle or two about sexual orientation:
“In statistical terms they are an adnormality (outside the norm).” Freddy, by “adnormality” do you mean they appear in ads a lot??
Freddy if it is just their being unusual that bothers you about gays, I hope you isn’t a Nelson supporter! After all, only 7 to 9% of voters are in that category, which would be line ball with the gay vote. ROTFL
I always wonder what motivates some people towards homophobia. Why does it bother them so much? How are they a threat to you? Something funny going on in the minds of the accusers if you ask me.
G’day gary
Is anyone going to watch the last Sunday show. Apparently Oake’s final interview is going to be with Kev?
I’ll be busy at the time but yes its a shame to see Oakes and Sunday go. Why couldn’t we see the end of the Insiders or the 7/9 nightly current affairs farce? Still, I think it proves that people do have power over MSM; if you ignore it long enough it will go away. So I keep on not reading the Oz in hope
I reckon Insiders wouldn’t have lastest 5 minutes if it were on a comercial channel. i’ts only our 8cents a day propping it up.
Hewson gets it right: “Costello never had the balls” for the leadership
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24111993-29277,00.html
Aunty gets it right. Nice to see my 8 cents/day working.
New global warming science:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2315636.htm
written by David Evans, Dr David Evans worked for the Australian Greenhouse Office from 1999 to 2005, building the carbon accounting model that Australia uses to track carbon in its biosphere for the purposes of the Kyoto Protocol. He is a mathematician and engineer, with six university degrees including a PhD
from Stanford University.
699
I’ve never figured it out either.
No different to denying evolution I’d expect. I find that threatening.
What exactly is wrong with Insiders? It provokes more informed debate that A Current of Crap or Today’s Crap Tonight. I should point out I don’t actually watch it, I listen to the replay on NewsRadio.
Q&A is good as well. Lateline is unmissable when Leigh Sayles is on.
I can find benefit in a politics show even if I don’t agree with the people invited on the show all the time. People having different opinions on things is an undeniable feature of human societies, because different people value different things differently.
JOM
David Evans was an electrical engineer who, six degrees or not, has no qualifiactions in climate change modelling or indeed atmospheric science at all. He is on the record as a climate change denier, as this somewhat fuller description of his background shows:
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=David_Evans
The suggestion that CO2 doesn’t actually cause warming is absurd. Its simple chemistry: CO2 blocks radiation far more than normal air. Venus has a thick atmosphere of CO2 and its surface is hot enough to melt lead. For that matter, its average temperature is hotter than mercury, even though its twice the distance from the sun. Evans should stick to electronics.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says he doesn’t have a clue whether or not Peter Costello will seize the federal Liberal leadership.
“I wouldn’t have a clue. I mean, it’s been a while since Pete’s called me for some advice,” he told Fairfax Radio Network.
He he.
Who said our PM is a humourless wonk?
JoM @ 704 : That article by Evans was also posted in the Australian awhile ago.
You can read a piece debunking Evans here:
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2008/07/the_australians_war_on_science_16.php#more
It’s all about who you believe.
JOM – just googled David Evans – nice try.
he is not an expert in climate science . End of story. And according to one of the respondents he is paid by the Lavoisier group.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavoisier_Group
say no more.
next….
Further to JOMs 704 spin, whoever in ABC commissioned this story, on top of running the now discredited UK Channel Four story, really should be canned. They are obviously running an anti-Climate Change stance in the guise of “journalism”. Why? The official scientific bodies of almost every country, including the USA and even Saudi Arabia, have admitted its true. The people invovled in both shows have a record of anti-CC activity without any credible backgroudn in the science. So this wouldn’t pass muster as impartial journalism, regardless of your views on teh topic.
If any government staffers are reading, action is needed here. Lightening doesn’t strike twice. I’ll believe this is just an attempt at balanced opinion when I see them try to run docos on the case in favour of paedophilia. As if.
And just to clarify on the Lavoisier Group…
“In 2001 Australian economist John Quiggin wrote that the Lavoisier Group is “devoted to the proposition that basic principles of physics…cease to apply when they come into conflict with the interests of the Australian coal industry.” [2]
Socrates-
it seems Janet and Keith are still pulling the strings at the ABC , just like JWH still has his hand up Brendan’s shirt.
How many more sleeps?????
Jen 712
Yes Quiggan was right. These climate change denial groups didn’t even exist until someone started suggesting that a carbon tax on coal adnoil use was the solution.
Socrates @ 707
I don’t agree with David Evans on very much at all but he is quite clear that his view is that CO2 causes warming. He accepts the mechanics and the laboratory evidence for this. Where he differs from CC believers is that he believes that we don’t know enough to know that it is a significant climate change forcer. He runs most of the standard lines of the CC sceptics, but a little more cogently and a whole lot more coherently. He offers cosmic radiation as as a plausible alternative that needs to be investigated more thoroughly before it is discounted. He has taken significant bets on his CC views, so he has put his money where his mouth is.
Don’t worry – JOM doesn’t believe the link he posted, and it’s not his fault he can’t analyse anything said or presented to him – he’s just passing it along.
Of course listing someone’s credentials is in no way meant to imply credibility…
There’s a reason the shallow end of the pool is reserved for kiddies.
Jen 713
Well I think this starts to give the government reason to act against the board. It is public money after all. I don’t see how the Channel Four doco passed normal ABC guidelines, nor would this one. So why is no action taken? It makes whichever minister is in charge of the ABC look quite weak. Hire a lawyer and work out how to sack the guilty parties, or expect a lot of flak over this one.
Boerwar
I know that is what he says; the trouble is that its all nonsense. Cosmic radiation has been dismissed in IPCC4. It is not a plausible explanation – it only has about 1/7 of the energy required to explain the changes in termperature. As for the forcings nonsense – we do know enough to predict high risk consequences. Any competent engineer trained in risk management would know that we must act at that point. (I am an engineer, and find Evan’s views embarrassing.)
The Libs have no time to lose to improve their share of the youth vote–remember Possum talking about the pre-boomer generation being solid pro-Lib and about to die off over the next ten years.
That should inform their choice of a new leader, but the right will make sure it isn’t!
Well at least it is not the tobacco companies trying to kill us with their denialist sponsored science. The energy industry and symbiotic supporters have stepped up to the plate with the same tactics.
The more confusion and scepticism you can sow the less pressure on you to do anything. People like Evans are typical of those researchers who cast doubt on the dangers of smoking. Expect more of them. To some groups the health of their mates pockets is more important than the health of an individual or the planet.
Is anyone else wondering why the health benefits of lower emissions isn’t being given more of a mention than they are.?
I look at my TV and see images from Beijing and think that these govts are crazy if they let this go on for too much longer. Our cities in Australia may not be as polluted but if you see Sydney from a distance it has a dirty brown haze to it all the time. It’s got to have an effect on its inhabitants.
There has to be a downside to the health of people living in and working in an atmosphere such as that.
Any policies that are aimed at reducing or eliminating emissions forever will get my vote.
I don’t know which documentary you are referring to. But look at this week’s Newspoll figures on climate change. 12% of Australians DON’T think climate change is occurring, 86% do, and 2% don’t know. The Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt being spread by some sections of the media isn’t working. It is just making those people look like idiots.
I think it would be inappropriate for a politician to stop the ABC editorial board from broadcasting something; censoring things is not a job for politicians. My only exception to this rule would be if a media organisation wants to broadcast secrets that go directly to the security of the country. But even in that case that could be broken if there are significant public interest reasons to do so.
There was a follow up report the other day – in Scientific American I beleive, that confirmed that Cosmic radiation has nothing to do with it.
So what you are saying is that they should choose Mike’s brother Greg Hunt, because he looks 15 years old?
721 sondeo
I haven’t got a source, but my mates in London regularly refer to a day in London air being worth a pack of ciggies minus the nicotene. Take a look at the smoking rates in china – health is a non-issue, and remember most cigarettes over there are completely unfiltered.
I’ve got a feeling solar radiation has something to do with it.
In fact that would be an interesting question to ask Andrew Bolt “does electromagnetic radiation have anything to do with global warming?” It would help determine if he knows what electromagnetic radiation is, which will determine if he did any science at high school.
Slightly off topic
Wonder about the date on this
http://www.casa.gov.au/airworth/airwd/ADfiles/over/b747/B747-349.pdf
Socrates @ 707 and 718
A bit of a communication problem for us here? You wrote 707 ‘Its simple chemistry: CO2 blocks radiation far more than normal air.’ What I was trying to say was that he agrees with the chemistry, but not the quantum of the effects. Again, just to be clear, I don’t agree with most of what he says.
BTW for those interested in the anti-GG’s scrupulous balance and fastidious adherence to good journalistic standards in these matters, I seem to recall that Evan’s piece was published on the day either the Garnaut Report or the Green Paper came out.
Onimod you said, “Don’t worry – JOM doesn’t believe the link he posted, and it’s not his fault he can’t analyse anything said or presented to him – he’s just passing it along.” I’m open to all ideas not closed minded like some! If you understand the science can you please explain the mathematical model along with the boundary conditions used to make the said predictions? How does carying the boundary conditions affect the output of the model?
“Of course listing someone’s credentials is in no way meant to imply credibility… “No of course not but it’s ok when ron says 3000 scientists say…
“There’s a reason the shallow end of the pool is reserved for kiddies,” yeah because the big pool is for those who continue to drown.
Shows on which part of the electromagnetic spectrun?
I think it was 2 days later. What they should’ve done is had an article on the same page making the case for climate change so people could read both views.
Boerwar 728
Sorry if I misunderstood your explanation of Evans as support. The point I should have said was that Evan’s quantum of effects argument is also nonsense. There is uncertainty in any complex physical modelling exercise (not that Evans has ever actually done any of his own) but you can generally work out the likely result with a margin of error. The IPCC have presented the most likely outcome for CC, not the worst case. At present the 50/50 odds likely CC outcome is terrible and even the best case outcome will ruin some rural industries. Hence in a risk management sense, we must act now.
Also, I don’t regard myself as a CC “believer”. At least, no more than I believe in gravity, or electricity, or that the light will turn on at home when I flick the switch. I accept it as scientifically proven. hence when people like Evans reject it, despite beign trained in science, I feel like askign him if he still designs electronics assuming that eletrons will flow around his circuits, and if so, why? If he only disbelieves this particular thread of science, then again, why?
Neccessity drives advances
Hydrogen Power on the Cheap–Or at Least, Cheaper
The fuel of the future could be hydrogen—if it can be made cheaply enough. Currently, electrolyzers (machines that split water into its constituent hydrogen and oxygen) need a catalyst, namely platinum, to run; ditto fuel cells to recombine that hydrogen with oxygen, which produces electricity. The problem is that the precious metal costs about $1,700 to $2,000 per ounce, which means that hydrogen would be an uneconomical fuel source unless a less costly catalyst can be found. But researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T.) and Monash University in Australia report in Science today that they may have a cost-effective solution.
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=hydrogen-power-on-the-cheap
JOM
Your behaviour here shows you have anything but the open mind you claim to possess. If you don’t understand the science I suggest you keep reading and refrain from posting until you understand the framework within which the narrow viewpoint you’re spouting exists.
JOM 729
Tell me, if you are “open to all ideas not closed minded like some!” are you open to the following equally credible “ideas”:
- communist central planned economies?
- Keating’s J-Curve?
- the presence of WMD in Iraq?
- scientology’s beliefs that we are descended from aliens?
Personally I’m not JOM. Some ideas are rubbish.
Some more detail and prospects for the Canadian ice shelf
OTTAWA (Reuters) – Giant sheets of ice totaling almost eight square miles broke off an ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic last week and more could follow later this year, scientists said on Tuesday.
Temperatures in large parts of the Arctic have risen far faster than the global average in recent decades, a development that experts say is linked to global warming.
The ice broke away from the shelf on Ward Hunt Island, an small island just off giant Ellesmere Island in one of the northernmost parts of Canada.
It was the largest fracture of its kind since the nearby Ayles ice shelf — which measured 25 square miles — broke away in 2005.
Scientists had already identified deep cracks in the Ward Hunt shelf, which measures around 155 square miles. The shelf is one of five along Ellesmere Island in the northern Arctic.
“Because the break-off occurred between two large parallel cracks they’re thinking more could go this summer before the freeze sets in,” said Trudy Wohlleben of the Canadian Ice Service.
Asked to be more specific, she told Reuters: “More could be a piece as large as the Ayles ice shelf.”
“It’s a bit of a wake-up call for those people who aren’t yet affected by climate change that there are places on earth that are, and the same could be true for them (these people) if you fast-forward a decade or two or three,” he said.
etc….
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=giant-chunks-break-off-ca
The Evans bullbutter was first published on Monday, April 30, 2007 it just happened to re-appear two days after Garnuat.
I suppose I shouldn’t bite at JOM. If he and his cronies keep this rubbish up they’ll be laughing all the way to a second term in opposition.
Seems the EPA is not doubting GW
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=climate-change-hazardous-to-health
737
correct – one crack across the knuckles for both of us.
and people say the Greens are kooky!
Anyone else think that Hewson mentioning Andrew Robb in the context of LP leadership was a bit odd?
Has he been overseas yet in his capacity as opposition foreign affairs?
Obviously he’d be attending the olympics wouldn’t he – I mean it’s not like there’s a shortage of Asian currency needing a home here?
“Opposition Treasury spokesman Malcolm Turnbull has criticised Mr Swan and Prime Minister Kevin Rudd for “talking down” the economy.
“They have been seeking to slow our economy, that has been their policy and we have asked them how many jobs is this going to cost? What is it going to mean to people paying off their mortgages?” he said.
“They have been hell-bent on slowing our economy down and now they are getting exactly what they wanted. ”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/01/2321591.htm?section=justin
Talcum has got a case of the Brendas, surely the Govt is doing exactly what they should be doing?
A pefect storm is brewing for the Fibs, lower interest rates, petrol has already fallen $23 a barrel in 3 weeks and more to come, about $80 billion in various funds by the next election.
The Fibs economic credentials will be in tatters.
731
Socrates Says:
The IPCC have presented the most likely outcome for CC, not the worst case.
It is actually worse than that. The IPCC reports are first written by the scientists, and then edited by the governments (ie the politicians), and all participating countries have to sign off on it. Which means that the reports are watered down, politically acceptable versions of what the scientists actually think. (So those from the ’sceptic’ side who argue that the reports are politically tainted documents do have a legitimate point, but ironically not one in their favour.)
Also, the evidence base for the latest report (2007) had a submission cut off date of late 2006 (I think), but since then additional evidence (such as the much faster than expected ice melt rates) has emerged that suggest the report underestimated the problem.
There are a number of scientists who think that the IPCC reports are understating the rate and degree of CC, and the associated dangers. Whether they are right or not remains to be seen, but it is a reasonable possibility, one with potentially horrendous consequences.
I haven’t seen the word hubris on this site for a long time.
Thomas Paine @ 657 -
I am just wondering how people would view a TV documentary called ‘The Great Smoking Swindle’, using the same tactics that the other program did to cast doubt on the scientific assertions that it causes cancer, emphysema etc.
If they are able to scare up data and doctors/scientists they can present in a way to support their theory then I guess that is ok. If it has the effect of stopping from quitting or not stopping people from taking it up.
You’re perhaps more right than many realise.
It’s now well documented (see for example Greenpeace’s ExxonSecrets) that those with most to loose from carbon reduction schemes are employing the tactics developed by tobacco companies.
Indeed, the link between Big Tobacco and the GW debate is very strong as British journalist George Monbiot reported in The Guardian:
But what I have discovered while researching this issue is that the corporate funding of lobby groups denying that manmade climate change is taking place was initiated not by Exxon, or by any other firm directly involved in the fossil fuel industry. It was started by the tobacco company Philip Morris.
Even some of the ’scientists’ sowing fear, uncertainty and doubt about CO2 and GW used to do the same about tobacco and lung cancer. The only thing that’s changed is their paymasters.
All the ALP has done so far on the economy is essentially “Me Too”. The tax cuts were supposed to trigger inflation but they didn’t (Inflation is higher but retail Sales is weak, indicating it is NOT demand from consumers driving up prices).
Perhaps someone should ask Turnbull what he would have done differently?
(Yes, we probbaly are heading for a nasty period, but I’d still prefer to be in our position than the US’ position. Or the UK’s. Or Japan’s…. You get the picture.)
743 Agreed and I do read more up to date sources regularly. But when dealing with Evan’s nonsense I was just trying to demonstrate that even in the way he frames the argument his position is false.
740
Jen – you implying I’m NOT green or just kooky?
Can someone else read this piece and show me where the OO gets the headline “Rudd concedes recession is possible” from? I’ve read it and I’m buggered if I can find a quote from Rudd conceding this.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24112083-601,00.html
Socrates @ 731
I think we are on the same page. Most of Evan’s arguments are fairly standard CC sceptical stuff, presented in a civilized manner. Some gain a somewhat spurious ring of confidence from the number of letters after his name. From my perspective, ad alphabetem and ad hominem have about the same degree of value when it comes to assessing a position, ie practically none.
The only thing I actively dislike about Evans is a sort of mental laziness that he excuses with a sleight of hand. He argues that CC supporters are expecting folk to take on ‘authority’ that they are right because of the impenetrable nature of the modelling. And then he says the equivalent of I can’t be bothered having a look at the innards of the models. The innards are available to those with an interest but they require an awful lot of work – they are a bit like climate – very complicated. He can’t have it both ways.
Onimod #733 Since you know the science what equation is used to model cloud cover and what assumptions are made?
Socartes #734 lol, you’re post was vey good, I should clear up what I said and say that I’m open to credible ideas. I should also point out that I am of the opinion that if 3000 scientists from an Intergovernmental Panel on Ideas was formed and found the list of ideas you wrote about were valid and belief within them is justified then a majority of contributors to this forum would believe it.
Gaffhook #727:
It was a 737-300 was it not?
747
Socrates
Fair enough.
Sorry ,should have been 747-300.
Got to run… have a great day all
755 John – obviously John’s finished work for the day and is heading off.
onimod @748 -
I wsa referring to the CC deniers.:wink:
as in
Jen
It would be interesting to get a survey of CC attitudes amoung Liberal staffers now and then ask them again in the next election campaign.
732
Thomas Paine
Hydrogen is a very tricky energy source (strictly speaking, an energy carrier not a source), and many serious technical, economic, and safety problems stand in the way of its widespread use.
This article (link below) does a good job of describing many of these basic problems and bringing a necessary reality check to the hydrogen debate. Though I think it goes overboard on the negative aspects, and does not allow for possible important technical advances, such as the kind in the SciAm article you linked to. Hydrogen will almost certainly play a part in future energy use, but what kind and how big a part is unclear.
http://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-hydrogen-hoax
757 Jen
wink wink, nudge nudge indeed.
There’s nothing like turning up to a party 10-15 years late, finding no-one there and therefore claiming there never was a party.
It makes you wonder what they really get up in the morning for doesn’t it?
3.5 million years of evolution hasn’t got us nearly far enough.
I love the cheek of Turnbull.
There’s now an even chance that interest rates may be lowered by the Reserve Bank. The economy has slowed to that point. Many have had to eat their words regarding the tax cuts in the Budget: they appear to have buffered many from the full ecctects of the downturn.
And this idiot comes out and says the government is talking down the economy.
If inflation goes up it’s Rudd’s fault. If it goes down it’s Rudd’s fault. If it stays stable, Rudd’s is the “do nothing” government.
Uhlmann this morning asked was it a good thing that the economy had slowed.
If Rudd had answered “Yes” he’s out of touch and disconnected with Working Families.
If “No” then it’s a disaster, all Rudd’s fault.
If “Not sure” then Rudd is floundering.
The basic thing these two turkeys – Turnbull and Uhlmann – don’t seem to understand is that while they’re carping and sniping on the sidelines, bags of wind blowing malevolent airs up each other’s rectums, the government is actually accomplishing something more than just “talk”.
I’ve been critical of Rudd lately, but he’s streets ahead of his opponents.
BB… exactly what are they accomplishing?
LTEP
A reduction in Govt. spending, and a slowing of the economy. Resulting in a reduction of inflation (0.6% in the month of July according to TD securities). Interest rates are going to fall, unemployment is still near record lows, working families will be better off and the Fibs will be skewered.
749
ABC 702 has been running sameheadline all afternoon in news updates. OO – ABC no difference as far as I can tell. Same misleading headlines same people employed.
onimod-
looks like the evolutionary process has got us far enough to wipe ourselves out, all the while declaring that we are far too clever to let that happen.
One could suggest that as a species we are getting exactly what we deserve.
Bit like politics really….
JoM
John , you keep coming up with implausible , and as we knock dems down with th plausible your islands of credibality narrows Now re Dr David and cosmic radiations theories If you read th IPPCC Fourth assessment 2007 that theory was examined by 3,700 scientists & dustbined I await your next theory taken from quack quack’s site
but your latest 3 defenses to me of: just happenened to shear off coinciently now when th earrth is warming , th crack only appeared in 2002 after 3,000 years without a crack , and there’s still ice left theres in th North Pole areas ar getting as thin as th ice itself is up there
Well all this is a long way from psephology, but I thought I should mention to Just Me that there is at least one serious error in that Zubrin paper (confusing the gross and net income for a service station selling petrol v hydrogen). While correcting that error doesn’t make hydrogen look too realistic, it does bring his credibility into question. Even more so when you look at the stuff he’s spouting on ethanol, and the fact that he’s now employed by a crack-pot US “think tank”.
I’ve seen an article on the web that claims to have a number of other errors which discredit the whole piece. In a number of cases I can’t tell whether Zubrin or his oppenent is right, but I wouldn’t take his work for gospel.
Gaffhook @ 727 -
Wonder about the date on this
It doesn’t appear to be a case of protecting backsides. That CASA repeat of the FAA directive was issued before the QANTAS incident, indeed the issue seems to go back to at least 2002 (2005 version here). Furthermore, it only affected 3 of the 30 747-400s in QANTAS’s fleet and the particular aircraft involved wasn’t one of them. It apparently has a different backup oxygen system.
Further to Ron’s good points in 767, for those who don’t know, the “cosmic radiation” theory being referred to is not the radiation (heat energy) we get from the sun. It relates to background radiation from various sources in the rest of space, which is a bit random and hence variable. However as I said before, the amount of energy involved doesn’t even go close to explaining global warming. For that matter, nor does sun-spot activity.
Gary Morgan did not let us see his words of wisdom today, maybe he is still trying to find a way to explain his poll results?
Stephen L, I agree that article is a bit on the extreme end of the criticism spectrum, and should not be taken as representing the best critique around, I just could not find a better one at short notice. But it does legitimately raise the still serious problems with hydrogen. We are not going to move to a hydrogen based economy anytime soon.
BTW, I am a moderate fan of hydrogen, I think it will play a substantial part in the energy equation, but only in the longer term.
I don’t want to be too dismissive of Thomas Paines story re hydrogen cars – they might be an excellent long term solution. However at best they are a long way off. I agree with Justme and Stephen – there is a lot of silly stuff being said about car power alternatives.
When you consider what is at stake for the car companies with peak oil, there is a simple way to understand the vability of the options – look at what theya re trying to build. The only serious work being done is to get hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles into production. The rest are still in the laboratory stage, 20+ years away unless there is a major brakthrough.
Can anyone please advise why Chris Ulhmann gets to do the ABC TV News reporting and the major ABC Radio interviews?
What’s so special about this guy? I don’t recall this ever happening before.
Following his evangelical performance a few weeks ago on “The Insiders”, I am surprised he’s allowed to do anything anymore.
He really has a lot to learn. Bullying the interviewee, or using old barristers tricks to try to trip them up, is really very poor.
He has to learn the interview is not about him, it’s about the interviewee, and what we can learn from what they have to say. The ABC Radio audience is more than capable of separating the bull from the truth, without Ulhmann’s pathetic efforts.
And while I am at it, will someone please tell Fran Kelly, that her interviews are not about her either. I don’t care what she thinks.
Oh if only Geraldine Doogue would do weekdays again!!
DOGB
#671
“The Canadian chunk (around Ellesmere Island) was 18 square kilometres of a 440 square kilometer ice shelf. That’s about 4%”
NO its not , Ellesmere Island Canada was once ENTIRELEY ringed by a single enormous ice shelf that has been breaking off progressively Th 440 square kilometers in size the Ward Hunt shelf is the largesst of those REMANANTS
A chunk of those remanants ALSO broke off in 2005 from Ellesmere Island’s western coast , the Ayles Ice Shelf So its 4% of whats not been lost , a pattern that th IPPCC scientists predicted Its th pattern thats important , not just th individual chunk that itself would demollish john’s house , which supports CC Just like earliers this year Antarctic Shelf had a big collapse , just like less rain & more hot years in last dozen than recorded ever since 1850 I post this re 4% bit , so my friend JoM doesn’t try that 4% arguments
Beautiful follow-up soaking rain in parts of the Murray/Darling basin but still need more because the subsoil is awfully dry. I hope it is widespread and that all those with grain crops in are getting it and that the spring pasture growth gets a good kick out of it, and that the storage catchments are getting it as well.
Its a statistical fact that it always rains more under a Labor Federal Govt.
Runawake
had th IPPCC checked that issue , I am sure they’d hav agreed with your conclusion
vera 765 Says:
August 1st, 2008 at 4:26 pm
749
“ABC 702 has been running sameheadline all afternoon in news updates. OO – ABC no difference as far as I can tell. Same misleading headlines same people employed.”
After our Rodent changed th ABC Board to ‘right’ leaners , and then Quinton was excommunicated , I presume th Board progressiveley has employed mangement to fit there leanings , who in turn employ such ‘leaners’ where they can downstream or hav a choice of candidates You may be seeing some of that output slowly , hope not
Uncle Rupert applied this theory to ‘oz’ , with our Phillip Adams thown in as fish & chips for us
It’s looking like a .5% interest rate cut either this month or next month.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/08/its-on-this-month-or-next.html
Brenda is off for a 10 day overseas trip, what will the mice get upto while he is away?
Seems Rudd and Swan got the budget cuts about right too.
http://business.smh.com.au/business/how-rudd-gambled-on-the-reserves-next-move-20080727-3lry.html
Steve @ 780 and 782
You wouldn’t happen to be an apparatchik would you?
Boerwar
Its is as obvious as Costello’s lack of gonads, the next move in interest rates will be down.
ruawake @ 784
I’d rather not think about the state of Williwillinot’s atrophied goolies. I’ll leave that to all the liberal voters who must be wondering why he is playing with them.
Yep, it looks likely that interest rates are going to head south for their next change, but my question stands: ‘Is Steve an apparatchik?’
Given that the term means “agent of the apparatus” it depends on the apparatus. I guess the apparatus for a scrotumectomy is best used by an apparatchik.
ruawake@764
seems like a whole lot of spin to me. And as far as inflation and interest rates go… I’m sure people were arguing the previous Government didn’t have control over interest rates… but this one does?
As for the ‘reduction in spending’… I don’t find it was particularly significant and larger cuts could’ve been made if they’d had some courage (e.g. Defence spending is still a crime, the silly school computers pledge, the tax cuts etc.). Add in the token tax measures (on RTDs and luxury cars) which appear to have no real purpose (not that I have a problem with revenue raising, if the revenue is spent on something useful… no signs of that yet) and it’s nothing that much to crow over economically.
I’ll definitely be interested in seeing the direction of the ‘Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme’ however, that will require a lot of courage if its done properly and will be enough to have made this Government worth it. No points for the silliness in cutting fuel excise or assisting people with energy cost increases though, which seems to defeat the purpose of having the scheme to begin with.
LTEP
I actually have no problem with compensating the low incomes in instigating the CPRS – seems like a reasonable (if backdoor) way to narrow the income gap.
If those same low incomes are living in 400m2 McMansions then yes, an opportunity will be lost.
Yes low compensating low income earners and seniors is an attractive proposition, but again, this takes political courage as people will be upset that they don’t qualify for compensation. Non means-testing is always politically more palatable and, with the Senate composition, I find it hard to imagine Labor will push for compensation only for low income earners (the Libs and Fielding would certainly oppose it which would leave it resting on the vote of Xenephon). In the end this leaves Labor open to a sustained attack on an issue which will already be difficult enough to sell. I predict the compensation will be across the board, at least to start with.
In other news, found this comment on Peter Martin’s blog which I thought a fair chunk of the readers of this blog may appreciate:
“Howard did little for the battlers in decile 5 who repeatedly got him over the line.
But he did look after their “aspirations”.
He loved the word aspirational. It meant – I am not doing anything much for you right now, but I am helping the really rich. One day that might be you.”
Aristotle at 774 (oddly enough our local ABC signal). Like you, I scratch my head about Uhlmann’s prominence, and want to slap him in relation to his interviewing style. His contempt for the PM and Labor is barely concealed; his questions this morning on AM loaded, though deftly handled by the PM. I can only conclude his advancement suited those in management wishing to please the Board and ensure their own advancement. Maybe they figure that if they keep it up, that in conjunction with the O.O. they can get rid of Labor federally? What makes me laugh, however, is that despite all the effort, Newspoll just stubbornly refuses to shift their way.
Rudd has already signalled that carers and pensioners will be over compensated for the ETS, CPI increase plus, plus. No more stripping grannies for Kev.
The opposition has been banging on about the medicare surcharge, but half a million people may vote with thier wallets and follow the Kevs new way.
Well well, the boss of the NRMA has said that petrol prices are 2 cents a litre cheaper in WA due to fuelwatch. I tip fuel prices to fall by as much as 3 cents with fuelwatch in Sydney.
The next rate movement is expected to fall most likely by 0.25 at around the new year. Oil prices appear to have peaked and should now stabalize at a sustainable level.
All under Dubya’s watch we have experienced the worst credit crisis in global history. However, the financial securities in Australia are fundamentally very strong and the market will recover stronger than ever by the time of the next election.
Rudd will be even more popular. Gusface’s prediction of 100+ seats for Labor may have been one election out.
LTEP, I wouldn’t forget, or underestimate the tax and welfare review also happening. The more I see of Fed. Labor, the more I see some serious intellect, and very smart political nous. Not that there aren’t things to kvetch about, but the Libs. pining for Costello is very funny. Not as funny as half-Nelson’s performance. Not as funny as Allbull fulminating about Labor’ economic performance. The week has been a gold mine of political laughs.
Sid Maher in the Oz thinks Starbucks is a major corporation. Sid, Qantas still has 32,000 staff, Crud Coffee only had 650.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24113887-12377,00.html
H”S”O, you are right. I agree there is some serious intillect in Labor. After low income earners are compensated to respectable living standard levels, I reckon there will be some huge taxation reforms. I wouldn’t be surprised if company tax was lowered to stimulate the economy to compete with the rest of the world.
The Liberals (will die inside) if it were a Labor Party to lower coy taxes. LOL
783 “You wouldn’t happen to be an apparatchik would you?”
Yes, I surrender Boerwar it takes a special inside talent to link to a story from July 28 on August 1.
We could hav a situation of interest rates lowered by th Reserve on one hand , and our Banks adding there ‘premium’ to intrest rates , for higher world cost of funds on th other
ron @ 797, that’s likely to happen.
Why would that be likely to happen? In a high interest rate climate all the banks will be trying to get the rates down ASAP to attract more customers. They still need to open new loans in order to ensure future profits.
794 ruawake great reporting that:
“Rudd concedes recession is possible”
and yet no where in the artcile doe she even go close to conceeding that. Pure The Oz bullsh*t
Greed Shows On. The banks will keep their rates as high as possible for as long as it can be possibly justified. As soon as one of the majors lowers rates, then the others will follow.
ditditdarditditditdardit……***Tonight Classified refused to rule out the possibility of him wining 10millions dollars soon!!! *** ditditdarditditditdardit…
Classified was heard to say, “well, I plan to get quite drunk tonight, probably aim to get a bit-of somethin somethin at some stage… By the end of the night when I’ve got $2 left in my pocket,
I’m going to put it all on Tony Abbott !
Next headline ….. (Classified banks on Nelson!!!!, pictures @ 11)
800 Grog – I read the same article and made much the same comment at 749. Amazing stuff isn’t it? They just make it up as they go along and this is journalism is it?
ah dammit, that was supposed to be (Classified banks on Abbott) ….grrrr…mumble grumble..mumble
The article was perfectly clear to me! The PM is admitting to bungling us into a recession.
BTW – does anyone know what is happening with Lyne?
Centre,
One man’s greed is another’s risk management. It depends on your point of view.
But, yes, the majors are unlikely to be in any hurry to cut each other’s throats going for more market share at the moment.
797
ron Says:
August 1st, 2008 at 8:24 pm
We could hav a situation of interest rates lowered by th Reserve on one hand , and our Banks adding there ‘premium’ to intrest rates , for higher world cost of funds on th other
798
Dyno Says:
August 1st, 2008 at 8:27 pm
ron @ 797, that’s likely to happen.
799
ShowsOn Says:
August 1st, 2008 at 8:37 pm
Why would that be likely to happen?
Reason is Fed Reserve Bank and th private Banks hav separate objectives Th Fed Reserve Bank has to control inflaton tiger but not let economy get out of whacko either way , presently trying a soft landing Whereas if cost of funds go up (reely or allegedly) then they’ll add an interest rate premium , as they hav already done
Re attracting customers with lower interst rates to be competitive , its a cartel
are we in a recession?
No Classified, we’re not. Hopefully we won’t be, either.
Having said that, confidence is quite important over the next few months (and the stuff we dig out of the ground, of course).
Whether it was Rudd’s fault or that of the Oz, that was a really bad headline today on news.com.au. Definitely not what is needed right now.
I don’t know whether Rudd actually said anything to justify the Australian’s headline or not. But he’d probably be well advised to get on the front foot over the next few days and clearly articulate all the reasons to be confident in our economy.
If the banks refuse to lower rates quickly just hit them with a windfall tax and see them jump back into line.
steve, it sounds simple, but in reality it would be an absolute lawyer’s picnic. It would be easier to regulate the rates banks can charge, in fact (though equally silly).
E.S.J at 805. I don’t know if you know just how tiresome you’ve become? Do the Fed. Libs. not understand global economics? Listening to Fluffballs today, and yourself, there is no way most people in the electorate can take you seriously.
Dyno you’d only have to keep it on until they came back into line with the RBA and keep it up the sleeve for future use. If they do the right ting no payment, step outside and get hit.
One thing the Govt should probably be doing is something Swan foreshadowed quite early on (December 2007, I think). That is making it easier for people to move their money between banks, and to make informed choices.
It’s not easy though, would take a lot of hard policy work on things like the law around disclosure of terms and conditions on financial products.
Has the Govt said much about this lately? Maybe, but if so, I’ve missed it.
Classified, we’re not in recession, but the Yanks are. Not only that but they’re so seriously in debt, mostly to China, that whoever is next POTUS, they better be able to speak Mandarin, or have a mate who can do so.
OZ HEADLINE
“Rudd concedes recession is possible”
Article:
Speaking on Melbourne’s 3AW radio today, Mr Rudd refused to rule out a recession but argued Australia was in a better position than most other economies in the Western world to ride out the financial turbulence.
Asked if there were more job cuts ahead, after recent layoffs by major corporations including Qantas and Starbucks, Mr Rudd said: “Well, if you’ve got a slowing economy coming off the back of the highest inflation rate in 16 years and 12 interest rate rises in a row, then the flow-through to growth in the economy and the flow through to employment, one just follows the other.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24112083-601,00.html
Had Rudd irresponsibly ruled out th possibility of a recesion , then th overseas markets would regard Rudd has beeing fiscally iresponsible NO politcan in th world can make such a guarante , given current world economic turmoil
“oz’ made a cheap politcal headline , and importantley in a financial sense at kindergarden economics standard
steve, define “into line with the RBA”. Sure, you might talk about a fixed basis point spread (or something, I don’t know), but how do you adjust the formula for credit risk (which is much higher now than, say, two years ago)?
The last thing you want to do right now is give the banks an incentive not to lend at all because they don’t think the spread they’re getting justifies the risk.
That’s just for starters. The devil is really in the detail in this area (not that I’m a banker, by the way).
H”S”O, the yanks are lucky. 8 more years of Dubya and they would all be speaking Manadarin.
The RBA is a Federal Regulator I’m sure they either have the power or can be given the power to run an orderly banking system.
Of course there will be job cuts ahead.
Has there ever been a period where some company somewhere in Oz at some time has not cut some jobs for some reason or other?
Can anyone guarantee there will be NO job cuts at any time anywhere in the immediate future?
The journo’s question was a trap, as outlined by Bushfire in #762 above, its the sort of question where to answer ‘yes’ gets you in strife, where to answer ‘no’ gets you in strife and where to give as ambiguous, straight bat, non-resposive answer as possible…gets you in strife!
This is a beat up, yet again, it reflects on the journo, who later added the dreaded word ‘recession’ for impact, and the paper, who headlined and ran that, not on Rudd.
Centre
#818
th Democrats hav controlled all of Congress since 2006 , thats 2 other arms of power & legislation capacity Except genuine ‘left’ Democrats only 1/2 there Party , everyone else believes in NO effective financial regulation at all ! Both pres candidates love there free unregulated economy
Thats why they hav a financial mess & meltdown
Language ? you may be right Manerin , but seeing they live off mighty oil , perhaps a 2nd language of Arabic might help also
Harry Snapper – 812
Blofeld to Bond: “You’ve suddenly become rather tiresome Mr Bond”.
Um – the tax cuts were a bribe as I recall in November last year. Now they are visionary.
The govt talked up hysteria about inflation, now we have had rates go up and crunch the life out of the economy – the reality is if they hadnt gone overboard on the rhetoric and just left the sub prime to do the work we would be fine – sadly now we will go through a recession.
If the banks want to go in another direction, I fail to see how the RBA can’t exert influence over their opposing values:
“It is the duty of the Reserve Bank Board, within the limits of its powers, to ensure that the monetary and banking policy of the Bank is directed to the greatest advantage of the people of Australia and that the powers of the Bank … are exercised in such a manner as, in the opinion of the Reserve Bank Board, will best contribute to:
(a) the stability of the currency of Australia;
(b) the maintenance of full employment in Australia; and
(c) the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.”
Since 1993, these objectives have found practical expression in a target for consumer price inflation, of 2-3 per cent per annum. Monetary policy aims to achieve this over the medium term and, subject to that, to encourage strong and sustainable growth in the economy. Controlling inflation preserves the value of money. In the long run, this is the principal way in which monetary policy can help to form a sound basis for long-term growth in the economy.
http://www.rba.gov.au/MonetaryPolicy/about_monetary_policy.html
steve,
The RBA does run an orderly banking system. But it’s a free market.
What they don’t have the power to do, in a globalised world, is to totally insulate us from the effects of credit failures happening all over the world.
Rudd is quite right though when he says we’re much better placed than most.
I’d just like to see the banks try it. I have every faith that they would be dragged kicking and screaming back into the real world, but we will soon see.
And um Mr Rudd didnt you say the “buck stopped with you?”
And you were going to “end the blame game”
steve, I’d be fascinated if you were to provide the details of what you think the RBA should do to prevent the banks charging wider spreads to take account of increasing credit risk.
The ACCC can monitor banks for collusion (and various other sins). I’m sure they’re already on full alert vis a vis interest rates.
ASIC can monitor financial institutions on disclosure issues.
But the RBA stopping institutions from charging a higher price for the higher risk they’re currently facing? (Whilst not doing anything to endanger bank solvency, of course). Put it this way, I’m all ears. Tell me more.
steve @ 825, they’ve already widened their spreads, if that’s what you’re referring to. It started months ago.
I’d love to see Nelson, the Liberal Party and The Australian defending the right of banks not to pass on the RBA’s interest rate cuts – that would be funnier than the CC fiasco.
Classified 808
We are not in a recession. Growth is slowing but that doesn’t mean the economy is going negative. Technically a recession is two successive quarters of negative growth and that certainly won’t happen unless there is a major global collapse. Remember that our biggest exporters have just signed deals that massively increase the value of our coal and iron ore exports, as well as increases in quantity being implemented. Hence the money will keep flowing in. Spending is dropping now but that will allow the reserve to drop interest rates and thus stabilise the situation. Plus the tax cuts kicking in will help.
This is exactly why I said two months ago that Rudd and Swan just needed to keep their nerve on that fuel tax cut rubbish and they would be fine. As long as they don’t go crazy in the next budget and spend too much interest rates should start trending down by the next election. In that case they will have shown themselves to be better economic managers than the outgoing lot (aka the drunken sailors) and the liberals chances will be deader than Nelsons.
E.S.J. Firstly, you’ll never find me anywhere, anytime articulating a point of view about the tax cuts, because I waited and listened. You may describe it as hysteria, the gov’t description of inflation, however, now it seems the Reserve may have to scale back interest rates. If all you’ve got is a hammer, everything you meet will be a nail.
steve,
Notwithstanding the Liberals’ ineptitude I’m pretty sure you won’t see them do that.
What they will do (if they have any sense whatever) is say “what is the Govt going to do to stop the banks behaving like this?”.
Which is not an easy question to answer.
We a mob who can spend three weeks arguing about dates that are all after the date an ETS begins is capable of anything in my book.
I’d love to see it but I don’t think Rudd will be imposing any regulation on the banks. Sure, words will be spoken but his track record doesn’t give me much hope. This is a man who has “consulted” with business over changes to Workchoices, who has retained the ABCC, who has told union leaders they can “jump in the lake”. I can’t think of any occasion when he’s actually done anything meaningful to rein in the excesses of big business.
Could be right, steve, time will tell. They’ve certainly been hopeless at articulating what should have been a pretty simple position on the ETS.
Steve, they can’t make the banks pass on interest rate cuts. The best they can do is hope that competitive forces in the market keep interest rates low. However in this present financial climate, it is not easy to do.
Ron, the US could only dream of a decent government after Dubya. I hope Obama does win. I believe he is strong and has the ability. But we better leave US politics to the island.
I agree with Socrates
#831
Offical Interest rates will trend down if th Govt is fiscally responsible , as there will be less demand Our problem & every other Countries is , due to US woes & mismangement World , cost of funds to all Banks will rise
Howard in later years ran an expanionary budget , via tax cuts redirected and Reserve Bank had to keep raising rates to curb spending exess , which were driving up inflation One fighting th other !
Any nuancing by Govt could only be in th ‘fees’ area Steve , rather than in interst rates because in a slowing economy we want them to lend
Can the Feds start their own bank again as in the Commonwealth Bank Mark 2? How practical is it and how feasible is it? If they did, could they just simply instruct it to stick to some sort of lending interest rate that is tied to the RBA rate? If they did, wouldn’t the other banks have to fall into line?
Dyno, as I understand it, it’s a sod of a question. Firstly, the NAB, for instance, has gotten itself badly exposed to the sub-Prime mortgage debacle in the U.S.. With the outrageous foreign debt the U.S. has, and their reliance on Chinese money just to keep going, I think, the U.S. is stuffed, and the more Australian banks are tied into the U.S. market, the more compromised they are.
Drat, I’m probably doing what Fluffballs thinks is just the pits.
805 Edward StJohn – please quote from the article where Rudd admits we could head for a recession.
The government won’t have to do much, angry customers will do it for them.
ron,
We not only want the banks to lend, we also want them not to go broke.
Unless we want to move to a planned economy (and the history of the 20th century suggests that we don’t), it’s pretty hard in the current environment for the Govt (or the RBA) to force banks to put a lower price on credit risk than what they (the banks) feel comfortable with.
Agree that fees could be an area to look at, and (as I mentioned above) product features and disclosure more generally could be.
It’s all hard, detailed work, though, with a huge amount of effort involved to avoid unintended consequences.
Look at FSRA. Supposed to make customers better informed, but the net effect has been that people get more paper (and are therefore less likely to look at any of it) than previously.
Centre
was referring to how US politcans overall look at business & ‘free enterprise’ , and do not believe in any regulaton They beleive th market is king and th market solves all , without a social justice or social equity responsibilty Its th American way , free enterprise
Unlike US politcans & most members of both of there Politcal Partys , we in ‘oz’ (rightly) demand those things 2 responsibilities from th economy , we’re closer to many European models & there expectations
Boerwar, it would cost a fortune. And ultimately a government bank would find itself in the same position as the publicly listed banks.
Toolman tried his hardest to trip Rudd up in some word game on AM but failed. No doubt the idea was to get the focus off Nelson quick and get Rudd to admit to anything that could be construed as recession. Toolman failed badly at this and simply repeated himself. Rudd speaking in his special babble as usual avoided using any of the key words.
The OO noting Toolman’s failure went ahead with their story anyway when they realised that facts and or truthful reporting no longer formed part of their journalistic standards.
The OO has unfortunately after cross pollination/infection with Howard become a no-standard rag.
Quite right Thomas
#846
There was a gotcha question , will you guarantee no recession , obvious responsible answer is no
then th distorted ‘oz’ Headline: “Rudd concedes recession is possible”
Yes Ron. I hope that Obama is strong enough to implement the necessary regulation to its completely “small government” free enterprise system that it needs.
WTF? The economy is still growing at 0.6% per quarter, that’s about twice as fast as the U.S. economy.
I prefer the RBA’s practice of jumping on the interest rate button early compared to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tendency to do nothing, which just resulted in a huge pile of bad debt that is crippling the U.S. economy.
If there is even a slight chance of us heading into a recession the RBA will just start cutting rates, which will free up more credit, and get people investing and spending again.
So what island is the eunich Hamlet of the Hammock holidaying on?
Centre @ 845
A Government bank wouldn’t have to make $4 billion profit. I reckon this might make a difference to rates and fees.
Gary Bruce 841 – If you cant see it I cant help you.
Of course there is a recession coming – Tanner is openly using the “R” word on Lateline.
winston, boerwar, it’s an interesting idea. Its time may come (again).
Oh, I see. Whatever Tanner mentions happens. Hopefully he talks about chocolate and cute bunny rabbits as well.
Winston, we could have a government owned company in every sector of the economy to compete and send all other companies broke. Then all companies would be government owned.
Then we would have communism. It wouldn’t work. An economy works best with privatisation and free enterprise.
Centre,
Bit of an exaggeration, isn’t it? When the Govt owned the Commonwealth Bank, Qantas, Telecom, various GIOs, etc, etc, did we have communism?
Centre , quoted th campaign economic advisor earlier today re supporting sub prime lending He appointed Jason Furman to head his new whole Administrations economic team. Jason furman sits on th Wal Mart Board & responding to Wal Mart employees wage demands to increae there 47 an hour wage rate said “efforts to get Wal-Mart to raise its wages and benefits are creating ‘collateral damage’ that is ‘way too enormous and damaging to working people and the economy … for me to sit by idly and sing Kum Ba Ya in the interests of progressive harmony” .Spoken like a real capitalist dry economics man Centre better than Dubya , absoluteley !! But none of them US pollies think like aussie ‘left’ pollies
$7 per hour rate
$7 per hour rate
Oh ShowsON,
Let me explain (For you I always have time for an explanation) – its about expectations. Tanner using the “R” word is a very conscious decision I can assure you.
Essentially today is the first step on the recessionary road – you soften people up by talking about how there might be a recession, before you get to the next stage of admitting a recession, then you debate the end of the recession/ beginning of the recovery etc etc.
No, but we had an economy that was 1/4 of the size it is now. And the All Ordinaries index was around 1500, whereas now it hovers around 5000.
The Feds could always use a putative fifth pillar as a threat, lol; but hang on, bad for my bank shares lolnot.
On recession, isn’t there some form of technical definition involving how many consecutive quarters of negative growth? Aren’t most people predicting that the Australian economy will continue to grow, albeit at a reduced rate? Aren’t the terms of trade for our major exports, although at already high levels historically, likely to go up, at least in the short term?
I suppose if US economy gets recessed and pulls the chinese economy wdown ith it our economy will more or less get dragged into recession regardless of what anybody here does?
I just hope they bring back cowrie shells as currency. A bit difficult to get stampeded by hedge fund shorts in cowries.
ShowsOn. That was my point, if not very well expressed. The inflation inherited from the Howard/Costello years is quite real. Without going into the minutiae of it all, if you’ve got a bit of a mind to follow the debate, Turnbulls confected rubbish is just that. It’s just projection, pure and simple.
Perhaps some satire on projection wouldn’t go astray about now? Except I feel about like Tom Lehrer, when satire became redundant.
The RBA is purposely engineering a slowdown in the economy. The only question now will be if it is a hard or soft landing. I would think that the RBA needs to reduce rates now if it is to engineer a soft landing. Of course all this has nothing to do with the Federal Government. They are just bystanders in regard to monetary policy. How anyone could blame them for the actions of an independent body is beyond me.
One thing that seems common in many contemporaty governments is to adopt newspeak when descibing outlooks. Howard and Costello just kept parrotting “A strong economy” no matter what. Similarly the yanks like using “strong dollar policy” even though the US$ has tanked. It seems to fool some of the people some of the time.
Dyno I think the point Winston was making that a government owned company would not have to make the same level of profits, if any at all, as a privatised company.
Drawing a long bow Centre.
A Government Bank = communism? I must look for my little red book.
Of course privatisation has been a sensational succes in public transport, power, etc.
Read recently that Britain has outsourced military training to private companies – resulted in increased costs and less accountability.
Boerwar, Recession= 2 quarters of negative growth
You know what’s funny Ron, the yanks reckon they live on the best country in the world?
No, this is just one way the current government differs from the previous one. It doesn’t pretend things are perfect when there are problems to deal with. It doesn’t say something is possible (interest rates will stay at record lows) when it may pan out differently.
Labor is effectively trying to depoliticise economic issues to demonstrate that Labor aren’t better, but certainly no worse than the Liberals on economic issues. Just as how in the U.S. Republicans aren’t considered better than Democrats (well, there is a reason for this, Republican administrations (Reagan and both Bush’s) have a habit of running up huge deficits that are balanced by Democrats – Johnson or Clinton come to mind).
Whenever the U.S. goes into recession Australia usually follows, because the health of the U.S. economy is a good indicator of the health of the world economy. Of course things may be different this time because we are selling billions worth of commodities to China and India which may see us through, even if the services sector enters recession, commodities may technically keep us out.
Another thing to consider is that the U.S. is a huge market for Chinese exports, so it is not in China’s economic interests to let the U.S. economy slow down further. Hopefully this will encourage the Chinese to devalue their currency in order to make their exports to the U.S. cheaper, so that they are more affordable for Americans, which again will just help the U.S. and thus the world economy improve.
Oh FFS! Why would you admit the economy is in recession when it grew by 0.6% in the previous quarter!? Wouldn’t that be completely f’ing ridiculous, as well as lying? The old spin book for dealing with recessions is obsolete, because the new government is trying to depoliticise economic issues by demonstrating that with a functioning modern deregulated economy, no side of politics is better than the other at economic management. The best way to improve the economy is to get the world to agree to get rid of trade barriers, but that is as much an international relations issue as an economic issue.
No winston, I never said that. Re read the posts. Refer to your 851. How much profit would you like the CBA to make?
852 Edward StJohn – that is weak. You have no idea, just sniping away.
You see Winston, they could make zero profit. Now read my 856.
ShowsON – quarterly GDP figures are subject to revision. I wouldnt bet the bank on that 0.6% figure staying unchanged.
As I say the elites are using the “R” word – tells you everything you need to know.
Dare I say it – Kirri R was right!
Yes I agree the inflation was real, and it was seeded by taking $1.5 billion out of education and training in their first two budgets, and timing tax cuts when the economy was at full speed, instead of when it was slowing.
I can summarise the Howard / Costello years – we got a heap of extra cash into the economy from selling commodities. The government took the resulting revenue and gave 50% back as tax cuts which over nearly 12 years essentially just covered bracket creep. 25% they dished out as new transfer payments mainly to middle income families with kids to compensate for the fact the tax cuts only covered bracket creep, and that the GST didn’t include adequate income tax cut compensation. The other 25% went from shifting the books from 2% deficit to 1% of GDP surplus, which in the scheme of things is meaningless, but it gave them something to talk about in parliament.
Meanwhile, the expenditure on health and education as a proportion of GDP went down compared to the increased investment of the states (Abbott admitted this at the start of the election campaign). But crucially they didn’t replace the money they took from education in their first two budgets, and they didn’t invest in water and clean power infrastructure, which is why we are now debating these issues with a new government. If they had done that with money from the mining boom they probably would’ve won last year’s election.
Yes I agree, the previous quarter figure was initially 0.6, but it was revised to 0.7.
Centre
Frankly thats why i do not take notice of what they SAY , one says it sweety , th other mumbles & belongs in a retirement village
Centre , but they will not make benchmarks (definitive promises) so you can judge them after , Darfur , Ruwanda , th Palestinians , ratify Kyoto , World Trade Organization re tarrifs for poor Countires , universal health , reverse all Bush tax cuts to th rich etc We ALL want hope & things to change , but when they do not specifically promise it , so when i hear that what all US politcans say in every speech “God bless America” , i think instead our ‘left pollies’ do make benchmarks
Not sure we are in complete disagreeemt on this one Centre.
My rcollection is that the government and private banks survived quite well together in the past. Only difference was that the private banks didn’t gouge their customers.
One example. I belong to a community group whaich has just been informed by CBA that we have beeen transferred to a new scheme (no choice) which charges us $10 a month – yet we have about $500 in the bank and negligible income.
ShowsOn
th net difference inflation inputed in th terms of trade last decade Hawke/Keating vs howard/costello was 400 billion There is nothing wrong with debt if its servciable & used for infratucture & to develop growth
Yes I agree. Debt was 2% of GDP when Howard was elected, big deal. It would’ve shrunk naturally as the economy started to grow even faster. It didn’t need billion dollar cuts to be achieved. And when they go cutting what do they hack first? Education of course, the thing that is most important to securing future economic growth.
That deficit was not like the 6% of GDP deficit that that supposed economic genius Ronald Reagan gave the U.S. budget in the mid 1980s. The only way Bush Sr could fix that mess was by introducing tax increase on high income earners against his infamous promise to do otherwise. This of course cost him the 1992 U.S. election, which allowed Clinton to ultimately balance the budget.
I can see where you are coming from Winston.
As for monopolies, I do believe they should certainly stay in government control.
I’m crashing. Cheers guys.
Well I just listened to the first part of the Lateline with Tanner and, in the first part at least, there was no indication at all of Tanner using the ‘R’ word.
When Trioli twice suggested that ‘many’ and ’senior economists’ were predicting recession Tanner said ” I don’t share that assessment” and gave reasons why eg ALP tax cuts stimulus, money from China and specifically said he ‘did not accept’ that they slowed the economy down too much and that those who suggested that ‘need to think again’.
I stopped listening when Abbott started.
Puts the lie to ESJ’s BS re Tanner talking recession doesn’t it?
We’ve entered th world of ‘gotcha’ questons Its interviewer who brings up th “R” word & no matter how an interviewee answers , a headline like ‘oo’ one comes “Rudd concedes recession is possible” because “R” word was “discussed” , but it is not what Rudd said
Oh and by the way, don’t take my word for what I heard, check it yourselves, it always pays to go directly to the source rather than accept the version[s] of others.
What reely annoys me is we in ‘oz’ and rest of World’s peoples ar going to go through rough economic times that will hurt , because th US financial system unlike ours , is effectively unregulated & built on complete greed (which has caused this current financial mess , and we suffer pain)
And what doubly annoys me is ALL ALL these US politicans say “God bless America” , believe in there unregulated system , and believe there unregulated ‘market’ will “sort” it out….but not for ordinary peoples
I look at dems regarding ANZUS Treatys , just like my mother in law outlaw , a necessary devil Otherwise a plastic society where money & power ar kings
Banks ? another ‘mother in law , would like to see there “fees” under more scrutiny
Fred , believe you , probably a gotcha question
OO and ABC take note, don’t get caught out like Fox did.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-OpIXfXKO8&feature=bzb302
So does this poll mean that Rudd has entered a new ‘honeymoon’ period? Jeez he must have shagger’s back by now
On the recession topic, I believe it is necessary and a long overdue purgative for the excesses we have seen in the past decade or so. We have experienced a drunken sailor expansion in consumer spending and debt levels, totally unjustifiable real estate markets and expectations.
If the banks don’t play ball on interest rates, I am sure the Gov’t has many subtle measures up their sleeve, starting with removing the four pillars and actively encouraging more foreign banks in.
Boerwar @ 839 -
Can the Feds start their own bank again as in the Commonwealth Bank Mark 2? How practical is it and how feasible is it? If they did, could they just simply instruct it to stick to some sort of lending interest rate that is tied to the RBA rate? If they did, wouldn’t the other banks have to fall into line?
Yes, they could. However, would you keep your money in a bank that had its policy decided not by what was fiscally prudent but what was in the best interests of the government of the day?
Nor is their any guarantee that the other banks “would fall into line.” When Treasurer Howard capped home loan interest rates in the early 1980s at uneconomic levels for the banks they just stopped lending on mortgages and concentrated on credit card and consumer loans, upping already high rates to keep profits rolling in.
While you may not own any bank shares outright, if you have super then indirectly you do. The banks make up about a quarter of the stock market and most funds have a significant percentage of their funds invested in bank shares. Whatever you saved on interest rates would likely be lost in retirement income.
Thank you MayoFeral @ 889 and others on the topic of a Fed bank
Disclaimer: The writer has bank shares and wishes he had sold them all last November.
Some follow up thoughts and questions:
Could the Future Fund be used as the start-up capital? If so, wouldn’t the only real cost be the opportunity cost and wouldn’t we be comparing the benefits of lots of extra housing, and personal banking services at cost, with, say, the fuel savings and improved market for rural commodities arising from the great inland railway, or, say, the improved economic efficiency arising from tens of thousands of extra training places? Or am I missing something about the long term cost of capital here? Wouldn’t the other banks be forced to be more competitive, or would they just simply say, that bit of the market is no longer open to us because we can’t compete and make a buck?
Could the basic charter be that, once it has commenced, it only has to maintain the real value of its capital, ie that it covers depreciation and inflation but nothing more?
Could it be set up in the same way as the reserve bank so that, within its charter, it makes its own decisions somewhat unconstrained by the Government of the day?
Could it have a limited charter so that it provides only three things:
1. basic personal banking transaction services at cost?
2. lending only for personal house mortgage services at cost?
3. credit card services at cost, but say limit the credit to, say, $2000 per card holder so that it is basically only about running basic household bills and shopping?
Could the amount of the startup capital be set and limited so that it would not be a dominant player but that it would be a significant enough player to stop the four pillars from behaving like a virtual cartel? Could it be small enough not to be a monopoly but big enough to provide some real competition? I have to confess I am not sure about the risk management implications of all this.
On a related matter raised above, I am reasonably sure that this proposal would not have too much to do with communism. Were Marx and Engels still alive they would probably write several hundred thousand words on something about the discussion being a symptom of the crisis of capitalism. The would have some considerable optimism about the subprime mortgage crisis and the follow on effect on the world’s financial structures as being excellent signs that der tag is nigh. They would regard a partial state bank as a desperate last-ditch attempt by bourgeois capitalists to halt the the triumph of the proletariat, and as being a clumsy attempt at delaying the march of historical forces by setting up a secularist opiate of the masses.
Winston #878:
We are with Adelaide Bank. This has been recently taken over by Bendigo Bank, the “People’s Bank”.
There have been three non-RBA rises in our interest rates this year. So much for banks.
They start out full of idealism and enthusiasm, and then the dreaded “shareholders’ rights” thing takes over and they start behaving just like a real bank: gouging, bloodsucking leeches, ripping off customers who can’t really leave them (they’ll only end up with another bank).
St. George used to be a building society. The Happy Dragon and all that guff… remember? Now they’re one of the worst of the worst when it comes to fees and charges.
Bah! Humbug!
BB and others
a look back to 1949 and the issue of nationalising banks is quite instructive
i feel the same forces are afoot
Solar rebate applications on the rise, Govt says
The solar industry claims the means test has crippled business.
But Environment Minister Peter Garrett says applications for the rebate have increased by 150 per week since the test was bought in.
Q: Whatever will Hunt whine about now?
A: He’ll completely ignore the facts and continue to cry crocodile tears in support of the well off/rich deserving government welfare.
Jjst on “talking down the economy”, Turnbull’s revival of his January-February mantra.
Did anyone notice Abbott last night on Lateline? Talking the economy down like there was no tomorrow.
The Libs really do want to get their story straight.
Thing is, I can’t see Turnbull – if he becomes leader – being able to rein in these self-appointed “senior statesmen” from the Howard era, in any meaningful way.