The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead back up to 57-43 after two fortnights at 55-45. No figures yet provided to back up its headline “Costello wanted as leader”. Hat tip yet again to James J.
UPDATE: Graphic here. It shows Peter Costello’s rating as preferred Liberal leader up to 41 per cent from 23 per cent in April (wrongly labelled in the graphic as April 2007), Brendan Nelson up from 15 per cent to 18 per cent and Malcolm Turnbull down from 25 per cent to 24 per cent – bearing in mind that 19 per cent has been freed up because Julie Bishop and Tony Abbott were not included in the question this time.
UPDATE 2 (31/7/08): Further attitudinal polling, including the finding that the Prime Minister is 3 per cent less experienced than he was six months ago.
UPDATE 3: Suggested Newspoll question format for next time: Is Rudd experienced? Has he ever been experienced?
1,444 Comments
A nice present for the coalition for their get together tomorrow.
The headline is a bit misleading as there is no figures on Costello in the report. This could change tomorrow I think.
The punters still support Rudd on CC. Full steam ahead.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24093309-601,00.html
Within last fortnights moe
Bring out the packer-wacker the poor Doc is flatlining.
Good call BSF
yes JoM, I bet that’ll console Nelson tonight.
Hey, Nelson will prove you all wrong and win government in 2010 on an anti ETS platform, so says Glen Milne, how can we doubt him?
And pigs might fly also(Progressive sniggers to himself).
How will News Ltd and Shamaham spin this one tomorrow? This doesn’t follow their script of a government on the nose and a resurgent Liberal Party.
Grog: Hey, at least Nelson is more popular than Gordon Brown, that’s something he can console himself with LOL
moe = move or else?
Peter “I am a procrastinator” Costello will suffer the same fate as Gordon Brown, namely a DUD.
Clearly the honeymoon is over and Rudd is a one term government
The Shanahan didnt come out of his cave last time, these figures must be breaking his heart.
Can News Ltd be any more blatant in their hard-on for Costello?
Isn’t Pete swinging in a hammock in the pacific on holidays?
4 JoM
…which was within the MOE of the week before no doubt…
and?
Also
Are we playing bingo on the first article to mention the honeymoon tonight?
We’ve got enough medicos in here - what’s the statistical recognition of the placebo effect? Does 14% really actually represent statistical zero?
Does anyone know if the 14% is an identifiable cohort?
On the plus side - he’s been there so long that it’d be fair to say that so few people are listening to anything he’s saying that his jelly-snake performance on CC will be rapidly forgotten.
8: We already know how it’ll be spun. It’ll be about leadership. Nelson flatlining, and Costello favoured to take over.
OK Progressive, I am waiting for the promised punchline.
#12 - [Can News Ltd be any more blatant in their hard-on for Costello?] - so do you feel an erection is coming then? A DD maybe?
Well, the sub-editor’s given the game away. Nelson’s poor advisor is going to up half the night coming up with a game plan for the morning radio.
Yeah, about the same as when he was treasurer.
Red wombat @ 5 you crack me up
The Doc flatlining ….
Clear and packer wack, no response we’re losing him, clear and wack , can’t find a pulse, TOD 22.55
Paging Smirk, paging Smirk
“The oil company BP, known for thorough statistical analysis of energy markets, estimates that countries with subsidies accounted for 96 percent of the world’s increase in oil use last year — growth that has helped drive prices to record levels.
In most countries that do not subsidize fuel, high prices have caused oil demand to stagnate or fall, as economic theory says they should. But in countries with subsidies, demand is still rising steeply, threatening to outstrip the growth in global supplies.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/28/business/worldbusiness/28subsidy.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&th&emc=th
Horatio’s anti CC stanse is winning him suport in th boardrooms , but not with th punters Th poll will be music to silky toff Turnbull
Good one red wombat
Nelson will break through one day.
I’m so sick of the Costello question. Get over it media!
I don’t think it is winning support in board rooms. If you were on the board of BHP, would you prefer a trading scheme with major party bipartisan support, or a patchwork organised between Labor, the Greens and a couple of independents?
ShowsON
black humour ShowsOn , Horatio does not seem to win a trick
JoM
common John , tell us why Horatio & Turnbull believe in CC and do not agree with the CC denier Bolt ?
shows on… move operations to india where there is no ets and save
So companies are going to mine LNG and coal situated in Australia from India? Whatever.
Brenda and the Fibs are going so bad at the moment, that here is a golden opportunity for the first time for the Greens to show some responsible economic policy and start planning for a shot at opposition.
These are consistently the worst figures ever by any opposition. They are even going worse than Latham before he got the sack.
Ron, Bolt is not a denier just a realist. Temperatures had been rising that much is true but they have since plateaued and may even be decreasing even though we continue to pump more CO2 into the air. Non of the predictions by alarmists and their computer models has come true to date so we are ebtitled to ask wtf?
As for Turnbull (I don’t know who Horatio is) I don’t know what his caper is he used to be cool but he has changed too left.
Shows On I meant to say they will limit there exposure to Australia as a result of the ETS.
Joke of the year.
This is untrue. You are misrepresenting the fact in all probability the warming trend has continued over the last decade.
John
Horatio is Nelson Why does Nelson believe in CC (and hav a CC policy) and not agree with the CC denier Bolt ?
“Peter Costello has been looking for a job that pays a lot of money. Apparently, Australian businesses are yet to be convinced that the former treasurer can deliver value for big money. However, there is no impediment to Mr Costello going back to the Melbourne bar where he worked before becoming the Liberal member for Higgins”…………..can just see Cossie pulling p#ss at Young & Jacksons.
4 John - You are correct but the problem is no matter which way the polls go the MSM fail to recognise the MOE. The narrative won’t be positive for Nelson tomorrow.
tip & froth
29 & 31
http://www.aussmc.org/documents/waiting-for-global-cooling.pdf
Yeah, that’s why Petronas & Santos are investing in a $2.5 billion LNG plant in QLD, Origin is investing in a $2.5 billion coal seam gas plant in QLD, and why Inpex want to invest in a $10 billion LNG plant in the Darwin.
They’re not worried about an ETS, why are you?
“The Rudd government will reportedly step back from the hardline immigration policy of mandatory detention for asylum seekers.
The ABC on Monday night reported Immigration Minister Chris Evans is to announce sweeping changes to the policy in a speech in Canberra on Tuesday.
Senator Evans will announce a shift toward detaining only people who pose a risk to the community, the report said.
The government will also stop detaining asylum seekers for long periods and will offer legal assistance to those denied a visa.
Senator Evans will also announce the temporary closure of the $400 million detention centre built by the Howard government on Christmas Island.
Graham Thom of Amnesty International said the policy shift represented a fundamental change.”
http://news.smh.com.au/national/govt-to-ease-immigrant-detention-policy-20080728-3mdb.html
Not that I’m a great fan of the Essential Research Poll but they had Labor on 57 to 43 as well tonight on “Agenda”.
ShowsOn please read: http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/column_seven_graphs_to_end_the_warming_hype/
Oh and by the by (I’ve always wanted to use that in a sentence) I’m worried about the cost of an ETS because it will needlessly increase living costs. It would seem the ALP are similarly concerned since their giving out free credits to industries, even the unions are concerned. Why aren’t you?
John
Eleven of the last 12 years rank among the 12 hotest years on record (since 1850, when sufficient worldwide temperature measurements began).
How do you explain that
LOL!
Let me guess, next you will be sending me links to astrology pages, and will try to convince me it is cutting edge psychology.
John of Melbourne
The IPPCC report of the 3,700 Worlds top scientists concludes quote:
” that it is “unequivocal” that Earth’s climate is warming, “as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.”
The statement is unconditional
Whereas you believe Andrew Bolt whose sceientist says the World is not warming Frankly neither you or Andrew Bolt hav any credibility in the light of
this irrefutable evidence (even Nelson & Turnbull agree with th IPPCC)
Ron #41 Climate is a dynamic system it has changed before and will continue to change.
ShowsOn #42, lol I do like your analogy. I have one of my own about global warming fanatics who claim the world is going to end, none of their predictions have come true their claims have as much basis behind them as tarrot cards.
I dont understand why some Libs and Nats and other nuts and bolts are allowed to carry on about Australia getting ahead of other countries on emission controls. The EC and plenty of other countries have been moving on it for some time. It shows the dominance of US companies and media that such nonsense gets peddled here without getting laughed at.
The world is going to end one day, that is inevitable. Anyone who has a year 8 understanding of physics realises that, but it seems you don’t. The problem of climate change is to ensure that as much of Earth as possible is habitable by humans for as long as possible.
The fact you don’t even understand what the problem is doesn’t give me confidence in the webpages you give me links to. But I do thank you for the laugh.
ShowsOn yesterday it was global cooling today it is global warming I look forward to debating you and others on William’s Blog about the next scare tomorrow it will be global stagnation.
Will people please stop quoting Andrew Bolt as some kind of reputable source. He has no qulaifications in science whatsoever, and has been soundly discredited on the subject. Lobbing a few graphs together as some kind of proof against global warming is beyond a joke.
I wish the Tianamen square rally back in the day brought down the Communist party of China. God help the poor suffering Tibetans and other minorities. http://www.theage.com.au/world/china-launches-tibet-crackdown-20080728-3m8l.html
I look forward to debating you when you display an understanding of science that is more sophisticated than that of a 5 year old.
JoM
“Ron #41 Climate is a dynamic system it has changed before and will continue to change”
John i given you a fair go today I’ve QUOTED the IPPCC Report of 3,700 scientists conclusions that
1/ World temperatures hav been increasing since the mid-20th century
increase in globally averaged temperatures since -20th century Evidence that human activities are the major cause of recent climate change is even stronger than in prior assessments.[3]
2/ CO2 from man has caused it
The report finds that it is “very likely” (90%plus) that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century.
3/ The report concludes that it is “unequivocal” that Earth’s climate IS presently warming
4/ the 6 scenarios of the next 90 years temperatures , each showing a rise
Th fact you ignore this scientific evidence , and believe Andrew Bolt places you in th company of of not just CC denier , but deniers of established science
ShowsOn you’re a gun! May I ask for your science background?
People who want to bicker about the reality or otherwise of global warming are advised to take their pick out of this site and this one.
Sorry William. Go Libs!
there’s only 43% of you , but with MOE , maybe 40%
If Tibet ever achieves sovereignty then I hope they achieve a proper Liberal Democracy. The theocratic system they had before Chinese invasion was as bad as Communism.
ShowsOn I concur.
Or this one.
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/07/28/rip-van-bolts-missing-months/#more-6848
Dario
maybe the Insiders could hav the CC denier Bolt on against Nelson , maybe Bolt can get Nelson to deny CC as well , and help Sir Kevin
ron, Kev doesn’t need any help. He’s doing just fine.
Few of the Lib Leadership figures
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24094239-29277,00.html
Newspoll Tables: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-29jul.pdf
Shanahan: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24093599-601,00.html
[Newspoll Tables: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-29jul.pdf
Labor go from 43 to 47 on primaries, that’s outside of the M.O.E., so J.O.M.’s first post in this thread is wrong.
it’s the climate change questions that are eye opening…
Libs are in trouble on that one if they take the ol hardline
84% think climate change is occurring, 12% don’t think it is, 4% uncommitted
Not wrong, they are jumping on the wrong ship that is heading in the wrong direction. The hilarious thing is that Costello has endorsed Nelson’s policy! When the Turnbull / Hunt position is the more sensible option.
64
Zombie Mao Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 1:15 am
it’s the climate change questions that are eye opening…
They are great on CC occuring , humans caused it and ETS Th MSN negative campaign has not any inpact at all
Shorter Shanahan:
Why they waste so much time on Costello, the Liberal Party’s perennial leadership prick-teaser, I don’t know.
He’s off playing the coquette again, back in the islands being “mysterious”, yet again teasing us all (in his and his urgers’ minds) with the thrilling possibility that he might deign to accept the leadership.
Same old, same old. How many times have we seen this out of Costello? There he is, incognito again, in the Pacific islands - again - too gutless to have a go off his own bat, so he makes quaking terror out to be “enigmatic” behavior.
The shivering bully. It gives him Dutch courage to hear the “reverence” for his elder statesmanship in the leader’s voice voice when Nelson says, “Peter can do whatever he wants, and I’ll back him.”
Total. Tosser.
Shows how lazy Costello is, he is on holidays while his father-in-law does the finishing touches on Costello’s book. LOL
It does make drilling for oil on the Grat Barrier Reef easier to cash in on if Nelson and the LNP kills it off first. Never forget the National Party policy in the Joh era.
It is no wonder that Newspoll is being to show the decision to put the ETS on the never never and consider national adoption of the Pineapple Party today in Shadow Cabinet would concern voters.
“It was eventually revealed that several Queensland Cabinet Ministers owned shares in companies that had successfully applied for sand-mining leases at Cooloola. In 1969 fellow Parliamentarians asked the member for Barambah (Joh Bjelke-Petersen) to sell his shares in oil and mining companies, including a number that were involved in drilling on the Great Barrier Reef, and he refused 4. Oil drilling on the Great Barrier Reef, which had begun in 1967, was a contentious issue for many years.”
http://www.archives.qld.gov.au/1972cabdocs/background.asp
http://www.openaustralia.org/debates/?id=2008-06-26.23.2
Beware. QANTAS is flying on pure luck at the moment. It’s not if but when a major accident will happen to QANTAS flight. There have been too many “technical problems but the safety of the passengers was never at risk”, rubbish. It’s bit like the CC deniers actually.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/door-opens-during-flight/2008/07/29/1217097180926.html
The media’s continual fascination with Captain Smirky is mystifying!
Costello is all wind and piss, the guy doesn’t have a backbone in his body!
Uh, Left is cool. That’s why the increasingly rightward Liberals can’t win a trick!
Ooops, left a tag open …
62 from Sham-I-am’s scribblings. Says it all really.
“In the Newspoll, Mr Costello’s strengths were among Coalition voters - with 53 per cent preferring the former treasurer - men and those over 50 while Dr Nelson’s were among women and those over 50. Mr Turnbull’s highest support was among ALP voters.
But when asked if Mr Costello’s leadership would make a difference in the way they voted, 57 per cent said it would make no difference…”
Finns- trying not to think that as hopping on board Qantas in 2 weeks. I’m running with the “they’d be really really careful now” reasoning.
44%! After more than a decade of displaying his wares, less than half of those polled prefer Williwillinot to others in his own party. After more than a decade of exposure, why isn’t it, say, 57%?
I wonder how Williwillinot’s book will address his courage? How will it address the fact that the majority of Australians simply don’t like him very much? How will it differentiate his contribution from outcomes that global processes were generating anyway? How will it sort out what was Howard and what Costello? How will it address his lack of the numbers? Will it address perceptions of his laziness and his abrasiveness? Will it address the reasons for the lack of corporate offers of sufficient substance? Will it address his enjoyment of his current spoiling role and the damage it is doing? Will it explain how his delay in making his decision now is helping liberal party supporters? Will it dig a bit deeper and address the conflict between self-belief and self-doubt that seems to continue to paralyze him? With a bit of flair it could be a bloody good read.
Mr Turnbull’s highest support was among ALP voters.
Um…aren’t the ALP supporters the ones the LNP need to attract to get back into government?
Tells you a lot about the Libs, ATM. And Shanahan. None have no clue about politics.
Correction:
Tells you a lot about the Libs, ATM. And Shanahan. None have no clue about politics.
Should read:
Tells you a lot about the Libs, ATM, And Shanahan. Neither have a clue about politics.
I’m just getting sick of Costello’s “winning” strategy: sit back, disappear if possible, and let everyone speculate, culminating in a draft (he wishes). Add “knowing” smirks and enigmatic utterances, signifying… nothing (at least no so far).
He’s been doing this since time-was. “My father told me to never tell a lie”… leaving rabid commentators to join the dots.
This man seems to be congenitally incapable of standing up for himself or what he believes in. How in the hell he could ever stand up to a real crisis, one that required true courage to confront, escapes me.
Even when he had the numbers, and when his party needed him after the election, he squibbed it… possibly for a dumb a reason as Howard had “anointed” him and he didn’t like Howard that night. He squibbed a front bench position. His whole life in politics has been taking no chances. even in 1995, when he gave in to Howard’s sweet little lies about a handover, he did it because he wouldn’t have to work at the leadership: it would have been handed to him.
What’s he waiting for? For the Libs to be so cowed and beaten that he can reassert his bully-boy tactics… on his own party?
Geez, this man, coquetting around, playing hard to get with the comely smile and the sexy ball gown, is the absolute last person the Libs or the country need to be Prime Minister. Trite, but true, it’s a sign of how desperate the Libs and their supporters must be that they even contemplate a loser such as this to be Leader.
He can’t stay in Parliament because he hasn’t got the numbers or the moxy. He can’t leave Parliament because he cannot get a job befitting his status. And he can’t bring himself to admit any of it. What a sorry excuse for a man, much less a politician.
If it’s not handed to him on a platter - whether that be the Leadership, a job, a gun economy, or an uninterrupted Question Time license to smirk - he doesn’t want it.
Re this BOLT phenomena,
It is rare that in a short period of time we see the complete collapse of someones credibility. Taking with it a whole raft of ‘thinkers’.
The reason that Bolt simply can’t change his stance is that his whole ‘career’ is based on this right-wing dogma around an anti-environmental, pro-market, pro-American, anti-intellectual loudmouthed bullying pro-vested interests ranting.
How would any of us feel if we were completely discredited by our chosen opponents. Bolt must lie awake at night in a cold sweat. “How could the Greens have been right all along”. “How could it possibly be that Bob Brown has been Totally right for the last 20 years.” “How could I have been totally Wrong all along, people must be laughing at me”.
The extension of this complete collapse in credibility then moves to ALL his other rather bizarre stances. There is of course a common thread that his rantings have. They support the powerful and rich. He is a crawler, a supporter of the rich, an attacker of the weak, a supressor of the underprivileged.
I keep seeing the meeting where all the Indigenous delegates stood and turned their backs to Howard. (Lets remember for a moment the Shame of his Stances around Sorry). There has been a move around Bolt similar to this, he had some credibility once?, now his CC stance has distroyed this, his attempts to continue the argument now becomes almost pathetic. But I say again it needs to be seen in this context. He can’t admit that he has been totally and catastrophically wrong as it would lead to a complete collapse in his ’sense of his personal credibility’. Really the only way out for people like Andrew is to stop talking about it. Just stop and start trying to focus on other more interesting debates.
BB@68&81,
That piece should be bottled!
BB…a BlunderBuss with perfect aim? Spot on.
Delightful reading.
Oops….’These pieces’..
It’s almost impossible to nail a jellyfish, but BB has done an outstanding job of it with Costello.
With a TPP at 57-43 the most interesting question is this:
Would Costello as leader affect your vote?
Its ALP voters that the Coalition need … and guess what?
ALP voters more likely = 15
Alp voters less likely = 20
Woops Peter that’s a net position of negative 5 for you.
Better get another job
Excuse if I am dumb, but is Costello really on holiday - again? I thought they were having a BIG meeting where all would be resolved. If he is the answer, wouldn’t he be there?
Absolutely correct BB. I’d love Costello to take on the leadsership. He would be absolutely slaughtered. Go Cossie, go for it. I dare you.
I love it, Nelson’s having his big Liberal Party meeting today, and Costello is out of the country: that says it all!
Annabel Crabb dealt with this Costello myth on Saturday.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/annabel-crabb/shows-over-folks-lets-move-along/2008/07/25/1216492729366.html
Question - how did Costello garner all this support from the press?
Lots of lunches, leaks or is he really that charismatic amongst a certain personality type?
Back in 1994, Costello could see that Hewson couldn’t last as leader. But instead of challenging Hewson himself, he thought it would be a better idea to put Downer into the leadership. That tells you all you need to know about Costello. He thought it would be a good idea to make Downer leader.
The Australian today puts Pravda to shame. You have to read that Costello poll carefully and when you do you note there was no preferred Pm number for backbench Pete. And when you see the numbers of voters who think he should be oppo leader, the figures also show that he is not a vote changer for the non coalition voters so the reshuffling of numbers would not appear to be an influence on the primary votes of the parties. Try and find that in the Australian’s coverage
But the Government Gazette seems obsessed with putting Pete into the Opposition leader’s office. They should be careful what they wish for.
As Barrie Cassidy pointed out on Insiders a few weeks ago the figure from Jackman’s book on the KevinO7 campaign was dodgy and a deeper anaysis of the figures showed Pete is on the nose with the voters. So what is the Oz up to?
And spare a thought for poor old climate change data manipulator Andrew Bolt (see Larvatus Prodeo) The punters just aren’t buying his shit. And yet the mainstream media continues to give the likes of Devine, Duffy Bolt Akerman the running on this issue without demanding anything like some scientific rigour in their claims. They continue with the line that there is doubt about the issue. Read the GGs poll today they numbers are extraordinary. The Libs still don’t realise what a vote changer climate change was at the last election. If they continue to use it as a political football they can kiss ideas of One Term Kev goodbye. They will be doomed for a generation.
Isn’t Cossie at a hammock convention in the south pacific?
The shadow cabinet may as well all be in a hammock in the South Pacific seeing their main work today will be to not make a decision until the rest of the world pass us by.
The hide of these people getting a plane ride, dress up in a suit, scoff scones and jam, decide to do nothing and get a flight and cab fare back home.
I always thought the role of the Opposition was to come up with alternative policies.
95 steve
Nah - now it’s their role to snip from the wings - any wing mind you left, right, arse or front, and slow things down.
It suggests they know what’s coming.
Has anyone plotted Vaile and Costello’s departure times against their parliamentary entitlements and superannuation package?
I reckon it’s getting that cynical in there.
If that’s the case, onimod then they can do that from home on an honary basis. If they are going to meet as a Shadow Cabnet they should be producing policy on behalf of the people who voted for them. They are paid to make decisions not put them off indefinitely.
You have indeed summed it up in a very devastating and exact way progressive 88.
The Finnigans @ 72 -
Beware. QANTAS is flying on pure luck at the moment.
Probably, but I suggest no more than usual.
It looks like last weeks incident was caused by an exploding oxygen bottle. Something which apparently has never happened before and presumably was not thought a danger.
And yesterday’s drama is more sensationalism than cause for concern. It wasn’t the first time that a wheel well door has failed to fully close and it won’t be the last. But at no stage was the aircraft in jeopardy. The only effect was some minor vibration. Maybe scary, definitely inconvenient, but not a danger.
Costello’s popularity seems to have risen significantly since he left the country. Could we make it a permanent arrangement please?
JoM
After the Newspoll resuilts where ar you , a disciple of th flat earth Andrew Bolt religion Newspoll has quantified a total of 12% who do not believe th earth is warming Now th other argument you had with me was man was not responsible for CC , well you did alot better there , only 3% agree with you , and 97% disagree with you
I think th Newspoll results demonstrate the punters themselves think CC deniers ar irelevant
97 Steve
If they make the wrong decision today, with these Newspoll figures in front of them they deserve everything they are going to get, inc extinction–don’t forget Possum’s article re over 70s dying off and taking their pro-Coalition stance with them. 20 seats within 10 years are at stake for the Fibs IIRC
steve
I don’t reckon I’ve been much more frustrated than when I saw Hockey on one of those group talkfest shows this year and he was asked about opposition policy on something and he flat out refused to talk about it lest he might ‘give away’ something the government might steal and use. Seriously.
I know pollies on both sides have this mentality.
They are obviously so bunkered in their own little world that they don’t even see the big picture that they are part of a process for governing the country for all of us.
Of course the media’s inability to see past the first disadvantaged and discuss compromise and progress rationally doesn’t help. And as Bushfire has been banging on about though - the fact that the country doesn’t have a perceived common direction just compounds the situation.
Leaving out Bishop and Abbott from the choices is one way to inflate Costello’s numbers. Why else would this be done?
Why not go all the way - take your pick, just Costello or Chris Pyne. LOL.
“It looks like last weeks incident was caused by an exploding oxygen bottle. Something which apparently has never happened before and presumably was not thought a danger”
It has happened before. There is a DC 9 in about one million bits at the bottom of the Everglades (which is basically two metres of swamp on top of solid limestone but you get the picture) and the crash was caused by an oxy explosion. Bad luck for the passengers but great news for the alligators. The plane was ValueJet which I believe is now out of business. Perhaps not. But the cavalier attitude of Qantas, from Dixon down, to everything regarding cost-cutting is going to have it’s inevitable conclusion one day.
On another note, a friend of mine who flies in high circles (pun intended) met the Qantas CEO at a bank function said he had never met anyone who had a such an intense dislike for other humans. Strong stuff, and from someone not prone to describing people like that.
bryce, why muddy the Newscorp stable’s numbers by having Pyne’s name there? Marcos,Saddam and Mugabe have showed them how it is done. Just ask do you agree that Peter Costello would make a lovely Opposition leader and just accept yes as the answer. There would be walls coming done, champagne guzzled and free popcorn to celebrate in every Murdoch office in the country. They could even write of ‘overwhelming support’ from the voters.
If my maths is right that’s 59% who don’t want Costello as leader.
I think Bushfire & othr posters hav over rated Captain Smirk , merely calling him gutless He and Bolt ar soul mates and friends going back to there Uni student days , and share th same fatal trait
Th Media always hav protrayed Cossie as the Gunna man , Cossie was always gunna do something , was always gunna to challenge , but pop nothing ever happened Cossie & Bolt are th ultimate liberals , th born to rule set and they beleive it as there right Most Liberal MP’s see themselves as part of the Liberal Party I reckon Costello sees himself above the Liberal Party , a birthright right to rule Captain Smirk has never challenged because he expected to be drafted , and has always expected to be drafted , an as he puts his brillcream on in Fiji today , he is still waitning for “that call” still , to be drafted
His smirk in infamious , but notice the reverse smirk , the sneeer when he wishs to dismiss an unwanted queston , almost haughty Do not be generous and just call the Gunna man gutless Peter Costello is a complete conviction politican of Peter Costello He expects ‘the call’ to be drafted , and probabley has driven Andrew Bolt crazy over th years asking where has that call to be drafted gone to , A born to rule man , in his mind
please please let Peter be leader of the Libs :wicked:
as in
If I’m the minority in relation to climate change then why are you waisting your time with me Ron?
Has Newspoll asked who who is your preffered choice of Prime Ministerr Kevin Rudd or Peter Costello?
ron and JoM
I wouldn’t be quite as enthused with the Newspoll results on CC as ron is. It’s frowned on (sorry JoM) to be denying CC at the moment so the pollsters get told what the polled think makes them look good. But in the quiet of the ballot box, with no-one looking on, its much easier to say “Bugger climate change”. Its the Bradley effect all over again.
The polls here in Ozland have been very consistent:
1. Labor is about 10% in front of the Coalitions on a 2PP: 55-45
2. Rudd is 50% infront of Nelson as the PPM: 65-15
3. 70% of the punters want action now on CC regardless of what others do.
I think this is a very solid foundation for Rudd to really do something significant and of long term value on CC for Australia as well as for the rest of the World. With a solid foundation like this, if he can’t, he does not deserve to win the next election.
I bet the Dems in the US election wish they have similar consistent poll numbers for their candidate. Obama seems unable to shake off McCain like Rudd has shaken off Nelson (as the PPM: 65-15). There is even a new Gallup poll today that says McCain is 4% infront of Obama. interesting.
The careerist do nothing set of decisions will be to:
(1) sincerely acknowledge that there is a problem with too much CO2 and assert they are complete, unanimous agreement with IPCC findings;
(2) sincerely look like they are sort of doing something practical as soon as reasonably possible but not with the Rudd Government’s unseemly, reckless haste and, of course, definitely not too late, no;
(3) have no negative impact on anybody, especially the big end of town, working families, children, industries, unions, miners, small business, fishers, farmers, car drivers, truck drivers, all other known sectors, voters, home owners, first home buyers, renters and populist careerists; (only green economic satanists will miss out).
(4) avoid getting too real until somebody important somewhere else does something, sometime and definitely not before the next election;
(5) ignore what is happening in Europe;
(6) allocate some notional funding to alternatives including un-means testing solar hot water; a bit more wind; and some more biofuel subsidies to keep the LNP happy;
(7) call for speeding up funding for that ultimate oxymoron, clean coal;
(8) call for the practicalities of nuclear power to be examined;
(9) call for the speeding up of uranium exports and for open slather on new nuke mines.
The anti-gg will hail this as practical, visionary and not damaging to Australian interests because they are on the do nothing bandwagon.
Diogenes I agree with your post at #112.
Hey JoM, did you and ron have the same english teacher at school?
At least ron makes valid points in his posts instead of just putting contrary positions forward hoping to get a bite.
re. 105
) about QF30, there is a bit of a difference between QF30 and and the plane that crashed in Florida - in the Florida crash, the Oxy bottles were cargo. I think a leak caused the hold to fill with oxygen, inevitably resulting in a fire (& crash).
From the pages of discussion I’ve seen on a couple of aviation forums (fora?
In QF30’s case, the oxy bottle was ‘part’ the plane (the pilots emergency supply I believe), and there was no fire. So I suppose it could be considered a ‘unique’ event.
A very professional crew, and a large slice of luck was involved in getting the plane down safely. If the bottle remained stuck in the hold leaking O2, the build up of O2 could have caused a fire in the hold, & the bottle itself missed anything vital as it was either propelled or fell out of the plane. And finally, the pilots were lucky there was another bottle of O2 still working, otherwise hypoxia would have set in fairly quickly, and QF30 might have ended up like the depressurised Cypriot Air (I think?) flight of a few years ago.
Still, I flew with Qantas twice this weekend, and felt safe (despite my fear of flying). You’ve got much better odds of winning the lottery.
cheers,
PS, Back to politics, it looks like Possum has an analysis of last nights Newspoll up (if its not already been mentioned).
Scorpio surely my English isn’t that bad?
Vlid points as seen through your eyes.
114 Boerwar
If you look at the list of voters the LNP don’t want to annoy, they are almost all Libs rather than Nats. Lots of farmers believe in doing something about CC, esp as it gives credence to their complaints about how the weather is increasingly causing farms to become unprofitable and need subsidies.
No-one points this out but I think the Nats and Libs are going to have problems maintaining a united front on CC/ ETS.
(I should also point out that nuclear fission should be on the table, although fusion is much better. The fourth generation nuclear fission reactors deplete the uranium to much smaller quantities of a less dangerous product than the third generation reactors.)
‘waisting’, ‘preffered’. ‘Ministerr’. All in one post, 111.
I’m sure you can do better!
Diogenes,
As one who promulgates scientific method, have you any evidence to back up your assertions of 112. Or is it some sort of religious belief system?
Finns @ 113, that Gallup poll was a poll done for USA Today and had a sample size of 791 people. The Gallup tracking poll which has been telling the story throughout the whole year has Obama at +8 at the moment.
Oops, guilty as charged Scorpio, I will do better.
I agree with Diogenes lets go nuclear.
This idea that people onlt tell you what you want to hear in polls is all well and good but it doesn’t explain away the significantly high numbers for this poll on CC. It also doesn’t explain away Rudd’s continuing high support. The “polled” may well give the “politically correct” answers on CC (I’m not comvinced) but on who they’ll vote for? Surely if they didn’t “really” like Rudd’s stance on CC this would show up in Labor’s vote.
119 “No-one points this out but I think the Nats and Libs are going to have problems maintaining a united front on CC/ ETS.”
Diogenes, I think there will be the odd lone wolf but overall they will be comfortable just cruising along and then blaming Nelson when the kick against them comes. We never saw any major revolt against detention of immigrants or workchoices so why will this generate any more excitement?
They will just slink away into another election loss without knowing what the problem is, even though people have explained it to them on a daily basis. The worst possible thing in opposition is to do nothing and not have viable policies should the tide turn.
Gotta agree with the GG (121) on this one, Diogenes, you gonna need some good evidence of that claim, at least in relation to climate change, because it is a very different issue from standard politics and the normal rules do not necessarily apply. I think those numbers from the Newspoll are actually fairly accurate and reflect a strong and legitimate concern among the populace.
The Finnigans Says: @ 113,
{There is even a new Gallup poll today that says McCain is 4% infront of Obama. interesting.}
Although it’s OT, the Oz has a different spin on it.
{BARACK Obama has opened upa nine-point poll lead over Republican rival John McCain following the Democrat’s adulation-soaked overseas tour - his biggest margin since Gallup began tracking the general election in March.
A Gallup poll released yesterday shows Senator Obama now leads Senator McCain among national registered voters by 49per cent to 40 per cent. }
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24092256-2703,00.html
Got to be kidding. Cost blowouts and delays all over the world on nuclear plants atm. Would take forever to get even one plant running.
GG and Just Me
The scientific method is to form a hypothesis and then test it using evidence. At this stage, it’s just a hypothesis based on previous studies which show that there are often differences between what voters tell a pollster and how they end up voting. There are good psychological reasons for putting up such a hypothesis.
At this stage, my hypothesis has neither been refuted or verified. My post didn’t say it would definitely happen.
Thank you for this opportunity to clarify this matter.
Dario
I don’t think nuclear is the best option for Oz (geothermal is IMHO).
Nuclear may well be more cost-effective in countries which do not have the natural resources for solar, hydro, geothermal, wind or, dare I say it, clean coal.
Diogenes
At this stage, it’s just a hypothesis based on previous studies which show that there are often differences between what voters tell a pollster and how they end up voting. There are good psychological reasons for putting up such a hypothesis.
Yes, and no. Evidence about voter behaviour on one issue does not necessarily reliably carry over to another. Like I said, I think climate change is in a different category from, say, opinions on refugees, or tax breaks, etc.
At this stage, my hypothesis has neither been refuted or verified. My post didn’t say it would definitely happen.
So it might happen, or it might not. Not much of an hypothesis. Bit too vague and too much wiggle room. Need a more definitive prediction than that for it to be a testable scientific hypothesis. Problem is how do we refute/verify your hypothesis? Well, on the refutation side, if the voters decisively choose Labor again next time (when CC will almost certainly be a major and possibly THE election issue, especially if we go to a DD over it), then that would give good support to my opposing hypothesis (that CC is different from other issues and there is much less gap than usual between what the public say in opinion polls and what they vote for in the privacy of the ballot box).
Just an hypothesis.
Looks like Julie Bishop wants to broaden the GW debate a bit and take the focus off the Libs divisions on the issue.
{DEPUTY Opposition leader Julie Bishop moved today to reopen the debate on nuclear energy.
“Currently, nuclear power is the only proven technology capable of delivering low emission reliable baseload power 24 hours per day,” Ms Bishop writes on a Fairfax website.
“The issue of nuclear power has to be debated rationally if Australia is serious about making deep cuts to its greenhouse gas emissions.”
Her comments will tighten tensions in the Coalition as the shadow ministry meets in Canberra to determine its position on emissions trading ahead of a full partyroom meeting tomorrow.
In February, Opposition leader Brendan Nelson declared: “There will be no nuclear power industry in Australia unless Mr Rudd has some sort of secret plan for it.”
Dr Nelson said then: “We certainly have no plans for, nor do we envisage, Australia having a nuclear power industry at any time in the future.”
Ms Bishop says today that if Australia is to position itself well for a future of low emission energy, “the nation must engage in a coherent debate about the nuclear option”.}
Although I have absolutely no idea where she gets this from?
{”In pursuing alternative forms of energy, there has already been considerable investment in wind generation and a lesser investment in solar generation,” she writes.}
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24095650-601,00.html
Here’s a good post by “Aussie Bob of Sydney” at Tim Dunlop’s site.
{
LOL… reading today’s Newspoll “analysis” by Dennis Shanahan would have you believe that it was solely a poll on Costello versus Nelson/Turnbull… with a small sidebar on Labor leading the Coalition by a country mile.
Talk about “Hope springs eternal”! Shanahan even concludes that there is a reasonable chance that Nelson (Nelson!) can turn around overwhelming community concern about Global Warming and convert us all into greedy, me-tooing GW sceptics.
I suppose when Dennis gets all those little pieces of paper spread out on his office desk (the ones with the lines and arrows joining them together) it looks feasible.
The only problem is it needs Smirky to grow a backbone, which from history is an almost impossible step in his evolution from coward to man.}
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/some_polling_analysis_and_the_environment/#commentsmore
Just Me
A DD on the issue would be an excellent way to test the hypothesis. If polling says Labor will win easily with CC/ETS as the main issue and then there is a significant difference in what actually happens on election day, my hypothesis will then become a theory with good evidence to support it.
If the Libs get creamed on a DD CC election, my hypothesis will be consigned to the dust-bin, and I’ll be forced to eat some humble pie, which I’m sure GG will force-feed me.
Diogenes
I think you are right about nuclear for some nations. Finland went for a fifth reactor precisely for the reasons you say - if you factor in environmental costs and energy security it becomes cost competitive, provided it is done to high safety standards (which theirs are.) They have no coal or gas to speak of, so illustrate your logic exactly.
That being said, the more I read about geothermal prospects here, I think that plus wind is the lond term solution for SA and Oz generally.
Roy Orbison @ 107 -
It has happened before. There is a DC 9 in about one million bits at the bottom of the Everglades
Nope. Totally different. The QANTAS oxygen cylinder is a thick walled container which stored liquid oxygen - basically the same as a scuba tank or LPG cylinder.
The Valujet crash was caused by chemical oxygen generators - small metal cans containing chemicals which react together to produce oxygen when a pin is pulled. They didn’t rupture but started making oxygen and a lot of heat when pins became dislodged because they were packed without their protective covers. This triggered a fire in the cargo hold which then engulfed the main cabin and quickly destroyed enough of the plane to bring it down.
While I’m at it, that idiot Malcolm Colless has written this in his column today:
… no doubt hoping that his readers were either too young or too old to remember why John Hewson lost that election.
It wasn’t that fightback! was weak on etail. It’s that it was mind-numbingly complex on details.
But what the hell… any port in a storm for the Rudd Bashers.
# 107 Roy Orbison wrote :
“On another note, a friend of mine who flies in high circles (pun intended) met the Qantas CEO at a bank function said he had never met anyone who had a such an intense dislike for other humans. Strong stuff, and from someone not prone to describing people like that.”
Thats the way he comes across to me as well.
For what its worth just saw the following, looks like someone sucking up :
“Try as you might, Geoff Dixon is a difficult person not to like.
Warm, affable and self-deprecating, he’s the sort of bloke men admire and women love.”
http://business.smh.com.au/business/private-equity-bid-comes-back-to-bite-dixon-20080728-3m94.html
A DD on the issue would be an excellent way to test the hypothesis.
Certainly the best test we have available.
But I do not think the opposition would be stupid enough to risk a DD in the face of those consistently high poll numbers in favour of the government’s (general) stance on this issue. The best they can do is pick at details and any inconsistencies to try to get the government to make minor modifications, which the opposition can then trumpet as major concessions and victories for ‘common sense’ and ‘good governance’. Assuming, of course, that the government gives them the opportunity.
John of Melbourne 113 Says:
If I’m the minority in relation to climate change then why are you waisting your time with me Ron?
Diogenes 114 Says:
ron and JoM
“I wouldn’t be quite as enthused with the Newspoll results on CC as ron is. ”
JoM , to convert you Here you ar a self proclaimed scientiist AND qualified engineer to boot , your years of Uni study learning the fountains of knowledge and it all has come to this for you , a barbarian leading you to th light , th CC
After you i’ll go after Bolt
“Labor going soft on borders: Coalition”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24095788-601,00.html
“Today’s announcement by the Rudd Labor Government of a more relaxed immigration detention system has the potential to result in hundreds of unlawful non-citizens disappearing into the community,”
Do the Fibs really want to fight this? They already lost. Seems to me they would be better shutting up.
ruawake, it be the newer brighter workchoices tomorrow just for something different.
Bravo Steve 144, you have summed it up exactly.
Or maybe they will decide to be takenover by the National Party that always seems to lift their spirits and be the source of much celebration.
http://nationalstakeover.com/
Very true. The ValuJet crash was caused by the illegal loading of three chemical oxygen generation devices in the hold with the consequences as noted above. Hardly similar to the Qantas situation.
Amen.
Not sure the bottle was in the hold as such but a pure oxygen environment in an equipment bay can be really bad news. (See Apollo 13).
Helios Airways Flight 522 – there are lots of other examples too.
As for the Qantas incident, I’ve been told these bottles are for backup only and the pilots correctly put the plane into a rapid dive down to below 3,000m where oxygen is not required. Worst case, the plane’s auto recovery system would have pulled them out of the dive in time for the crew to recover. But, yes, a tricky situation luckily avoided.
Diogenoski 114 Says:
“ron and JoM I wouldn’t be quite as enthused with the Newspoll results on CC as ron is. ”
Newspoll had 4 CC polls , Horatio 14% PPM , believe earth is NOT warming 12% , believe man has NOT caused any CC 3% , do NOT believe in any ETS 11%
And after seeing th above , you can say without a key stroke smile to see “I wouldn’t be quite as enthused as Ron ” ?
I am very yes , naturally zero %’s would hav been better on all of them Although i might add the “believe man has NOT caused any CC at 3% , well that 3% IS within the MOE potentialy making it a 0%
Politicaly these polls are ‘CCabulous’ , because threre is so much pro CC sentiment ‘fat’ there in this Newspoll in % terms , better than one could hav hoped as a defense for th ineviteble negative CC campaign that will come And where did you get that ‘Bradley factor ‘ term from Bradley factor refferred to US black Candidates not to ‘oz’ “black coal” liberal candidates
Sorry mayo - overlooked your 138.
Oh dear Brenda announces his new policy on an ETS - except its the same.
I guess he just got “turn-hunted”.
So that explains the unnatural glow in Julie Bishop’s eyes -they’re full of fission products. No doubt she’s got mates in WA sitting on huge uranium resources; of course she’s going to spruik that particular GW/CC “solution”. But reactors take 10 to 15 years of generating “clean” power to pay off the carbon debt accrued during their construction, then they’re due for overhaul or decommissioning after 25 to 30. As others have pointed out, nuclear power is the choice for countries with limited energy alternatives -or with other agendas, such as the development of nuclear weapons. For Australia, with the full gamut of renewables and LNG to boot, the nuclear option is way down the list.
Custard Costello will never lead anything. How much are we still paying him, while he spends his time scratching his arse and writing his memoirs? (Aren’t such books outlawed under proceeds of crime legislation?) The electorate of Higgins deserves better.
Looks like there is no change to Nelson’s latest ETS position. At least until after tomorrow’s Joint Party room meeting when it could all change once again.
{BRENDAN Nelson has secured the support of shadow cabinet for a tougher line on emissions trading that makes support for a scheme conditional on action by big polluters including China and India.
Coalition sources told The Australian Online that hardliners are claiming a victory after today’s meeting and claim the “big shift” was from frontbenchers Malcolm Turnbull and Greg Hunt.
“Brendan Nelson has carried the day,” a Liberal frontbencher said.
Dr Nelson will hold a press conference shortly. It is understood the shadow cabinet has agreed to a series of principles around the issue of climate change. His new policy position still requires the support of the Coalition partyroom tomorrow.}
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24096064-601,00.html
Samantha Maiden as usual gets it wrong - I watched Brenda’s press conference and he could not explain how the policy had changed, because it has not.
So where is the “big shift”. In the minds of Coalition sources?
Oh dear, what a mess:
From Skynews’ Agenda:
“Brendan Nelson managed not only to shoot himself on the foot but also stabbed himself on the arm”
“He cannot mess up more this CC thing over the last two weeks than what he has done”.
“Nelson is now of the view that Australia must act and implement ETS”
“Nelson has managed to turn the Coalition’s CC policy into an issue, rather than the Government’s”
“About 30% of the Coalition MPs are CC skeptic or denier and questioned the science”
“Nelson has come out of the last two weeks so much weaker and hard to imagine him holding on to the leadership”
“Peter Costello is indulgent in taking a holiday as the Liberal is crumbling and the punters will not put up with this kind of indulgent”.
154 The Finnigans - I watched that too. As far as Jennifer Hewett and the journalist from The Advertiser (Mark ?) Nelson has had a very bad couple of weeks. Bolt will be spewing.
Let me fix that sentence - “As far as Jennifer Hewett and the journalist from The Advertiser (Mark ?) were concerned Nelson has had a very bad couple of weeks.”
On 7’s 4.30pm news, their political reporter (not the dickhead one) said Brenda was very uncomfortable at the press conference and if you had trouble understanding the Libs position on CC you weren’t alone as he was having trouble understanding it himself!
Dennis Shanahan’s piece is not just about promoting Costello; it’s a not-too-subtle ploy to obscure the fact that in the last two weeks the gap in the Labor/LNP primary vote has widened from 5 to 10 percentage points, the TPP gap has widened from 10 to 14 points, and the PPM gap remained unchanged at over 50. All are mentioned if one looks carefully, but they scarcely jump out of the page.
The radio broadcasts have followed suit with scarcely a mention of the key poll figures. While the Costello angle is newsworthy, so are the other poll data. It’s another example of how the media in this country is susceptible to groupthink, or more plausibly in this instance, ‘non-think’.
Even the Costello story was bungled with mislabelling of the table, which did not match the text. With Nelson’s and Turnbull’s support virtually at a standstill, Dennis was able to say: “With Ms Bishop and Mr Abbott removed from the latest poll, all of the public support appears to have shifted to Mr Costello as speculation has swirled about his future.” Another take on the figures could be that when Bishop and Abbott were included they took 19 votes away from Costello, leaving him on a par with Turnbull. Dennis, the master of implausible spin, has done it again. He should know that using data in this way is fallacious, but why should he worry about statistical precision? The only credible motivation seems to be a determined push from several Oz journalists to reinstate Costello in the belief he might be better place to wrest Government from Labor at the next election. I guess he looked, but couldn’t find a more promising candidate.
“Nelson has had a very bad couple of weeks”.
And its only going to get worse, he may be able to keep the lid on the party room tomorrow but for how long?
They really need a good all in brawl - no holds barred cage match - clear the policy vacuum and get back in the game.
Brenda, the great appeaser, is doing his party no good at all.
Gary Bruce 155 Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
“154 The Finnigans - I watched that too. As far as Jennifer Hewett and the journalist from The Advertiser (Mark ?) Nelson has had a very bad couple of weeks. Bolt will be spewing”
How did Bolt get into it Brenda has announced 3 CC policys today , all in th one news conference , whereas Bolt believes in no CC policys at all since th world is not warming
Gary
I presume you mean Mark Kenny.
Diogenes
I don’t really have a very high regard for the quality of the ‘nuclear debate’ in Australia.
I suspect that the pro-nuclear lobby in Australia knows pretty well that whole-of-life nuclear power plants are commercially uncompetitive here and can usually only work ‘commercially’ overseas if (a) they are subsidised, and (b) people don’t think in terms of ‘whole-of-life’ when they use the term ‘commercial’. The exception might be in countries that don’t have alternatives and that might be held to ransom by oil/coal/gas cartels, but that has not been demonstrated. The current oil price, and Putin’s activities in relation to with holding fuel supply to the Ukraine, may make a liar out of me on this one.
Given the commercial realities in Australia, the real agendas of the very-active pro-nuclear lobby, who are given lots of space in the anti-gg, must be elsewhere. I suggest the following three:
(a) to act a spoiler as in: ‘Climate ecohysterics* can’t be regarded as having any credibility on CO2 if they refuse to consider nukes.’
(b) to act as cover for the real agenda as in: ‘Climate ecohysterics can’t be regarded as supporting other countries to reduce their emissions if they try to limit the export of uranium.’ The real agenda would be to increase the number of uranium mines, the amount of uranium exports, and to get to the Indian market in particular. This agenda is profit. (I am not against profit and enjoy it myself, if I can get it with the way the stockmarket is going, but I prefer the nuclear lobby to be honest about it.)
(c) to give careerist do-nothings something to talk about when they intend to do nothing but want to look like they seriously want to do something if only the ecohysterics would let them.
I am not against nuclear power generation per se and believe that the radioactive material can be stored safely. ‘Safely’ means at very great cost and over a very great time frame. However, I do believe that one day we will probably all be fairly sorry about nuclear weapons proliferation. There are some pretty hairy situations out there at the moment and they seem to be increasing. In relation to, I think, the Gaza strip, a senior Israeli has spoken about a ‘final solution’ and they have the nukes to deliver it. I think it was a frustrated slip of the tongue and does not represent mainstream Israeli opinion but, as with Goldwater, using nukes gets to be seriously on the agenda when things get very frustrating. Living next to the Gaza Strip must occasionally be deadly and mostly very frustrating. Living in it must be hell.
The Iranian Ahmadinadjad would be a very, very scary nuke holder. It is hard to see the Israelis letting that come about and it is also fairly logical that if they can’t do it conventionally, they will go nuclear. Let’s all hope the diplomacy works.
Pakistani governance is rocky and no-one can sure who would end up with the nukes if things continue to deteriorate. Probably a greater practical concern is the rapidly increasing amount of material out there which is suitable for a dirty bomb (ie conventional explosive core + nuclear leftovers instead of nails and bolts. These are dead easy to make if you have the stuff). One such bomb detonated in, say, Pitt Street, would make the whole of the Iraq insurgent bombing campaign look like kiddy kindergarten stuff - not because of the comparative numbers killed or injured or the comparative damage done to buildings and infrastructure, but because of the amount of time that would need to pass` before anybody could go back to Pitt Street to work. Weeks certainly, months probably. OH&S legislation would make it a crime for bosses to expect their workers to go there.
I have read somewhere or other that if the world’s entire current coal/oil/gas power generation was generated by nukes instead, we would only have about a generation’s worth of known uranium reserves. If true, and even if the capital were available, and even if the reserves were to be doubled and even if the efficiency of generation per kilogram of uranium were increased significantly, nuclear fission is therefore probably not a long-term solution for anything at all. If so, nuclear must be more about careerists thinking about jobs, pollies thinking about national sovereignty, and cappos making a short-term quid. But I must confess I don’t know too much about whether there are nuclear fission alternatives to uranium that are practicable.
* not sure where ‘ecohysteric’ originated but I first saw the term in the anti-gg. A subby must have had a bad night on the grog. Sort of clever, but a bit over the top if the anti-gg wants to persuade the other 84% of Australians that they are incorrect on CC and begins by implying that most of them are ecohysterics.
Amigo Ronnie, [Brenda has announced 3 CC policys today] - i am struggling myself. Over how to fit the Liberal’s top 5 into the top five classic positions of the Kama Sutra on CC. One each for Nelson, Bishop, Turnbull, Cossie and Hunt. There is a fit somewhere.
163
The Finnigans Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
“Amigo Ronnie, [Brenda has announced 3 CC policys today] - i am struggling myself. Over how to fit the Liberal’s top 5 into the top five classic positions of the Kama Sutra on CC. One each for Nelson, Bishop, Turnbull, Cossie and Hunt. There is a fit somewhere.”
5 normaly does not go into 3 but Brenda found the code Cossie was zero he was gunna put up a CC policy but wasn’t drafted , Hunts a fairyfloss so got 0.5% , gave 1% to Juile a good look lady , and rounded after that
161 onimod - That’s the one, thanks.
“How did Bolt get into it Brenda has announced 3 CC policys today , all in th one news conference , whereas Bolt believes in no CC policys at all since th world is not warming”
That last bit about Bolt wasn’t on “Agenda” Ron, that was me. Bolt was wanting and hoping Nelson would take a hard line on CC and the ETS. Obviously Nelson was rolled and he hasn’t, hence my comment. Bolt will not be impressed with Nelson now.
162 Boerwar
I read a book that agreed with you about. It named the three countries most likely to be responsible for a global collapse. They were:
1. Saudi Arabia- If the fundies take over and limit oil supply to the US
2. Pakistan- Risk of nuclear waste ending up with extremists, esp if Musharref is assassinated
3. China- If its economy collapses on the back of US dollar devaluation and getting left holding the bag, combined with the possibility that they can’t continue to manage their economy so expertly for ever and will start making mistakes
#162 Boerwar - [Pakistani governance is rocky and no-one can sure who would end up with the nukes if things continue to deteriorate.] - How Pakistan was ever allowed to have and continue to have the Nukes? The answer must be that Pakistan plays cricket. That’s alright then. So if I were the Iranians, I would start playing cricket.
” Bolt was wanting and hoping Nelson would take a hard line on CC and the ETS. Obviously Nelson was rolled and he hasn’t”
Gary , Brenda is such a flip flopper to hold his job , there is always th chance of a future CC policy mark iv to save his skin
Nelson got rolled: LMFAO!
That has made my day!
Thank goodness there are still a few intelligent people in the Liberal Party, especially Mal Washer.
Rudd could really make Nelson’s day even worse by getting on the box and thanking him for endorsing the government’s policy of going slowly on the ETS initially and lowering the cap and ramping up the carbon price as major emitters come on board, which is the opposite of what Nelson is implying the policy is!
Diogenes @ 132 -
Nuclear may well be more cost-effective in countries which do not have the natural resources for solar, hydro, geothermal, wind or, dare I say it, clean coal.
It seems to me there are two problems with this. 1) Economic uranium reserves, including secondary reserves such as nuclear weapons reprocessing are even more limited than oil and are expected to be exhausted within 40 years* at current demand (or 2 years if everyone started using it [Zittel W, et al, (2006)]), and 2) what limitations will the US insist on to allow countries to build nuke plants?
Okay, breeder reactors could solve the first, but if the US has apoplexy about Iran enriching uranium to fuel grade (<=5% U-235 -v- 90% for bombs) what will they think about vast quantities of plutonium entering the global fuel cycle?
* see also: Lack of fuel may limit U.S. nuclear power expansion
According to Paul Bongiorno on TEN NEWS, Nelson was rolled by shadow cabinet.
I’d trust him over the News Ltd/Pro Liberal Party hacks!
Shamaham’s piece this morning was more of the same drivel we expect from him and that toad Milne.
So did Nelson get rolled or is “Brendan Nelson has carried the day” correct or maybe an “elegant compromise” had been found.
Talk about spin - how about, as usual Brenda decided he would do nothing. Or Brenda tells people what they want to hear.
The funny thing is that he really did not need to say anything - the Govt is going through the discussion phase of framing an ETS and we will comment when all the details are on the table.
But oh no - being a political opportunist, or desperation to hang on as leader, he makes the Fibs policy the issue. Dumb, dumb, dumb.
Progressive, 170 and 172,
Once again your insight and profound wisdom excludes the possibility of any rational alternative point of view!
152 Scorpio - WOW did Samantha Maiden get the wrong info on that one!
I had read that before leaving work, and when I got home and saw the story on Channel 10 news I couldn’t believe it.
And get this dopey line:
“Dr Nelson’s new policy position increases the likelihood the Rudd Government will be forced to delay the introduction of the scheme if it wants to secure Senate support. ”
Why? The Greens will come on board; so will X and Fielding will do a bit of trading and bingo Libs irrelevant.
One of the reasons I support Labor and not the Liberals is because it is Labor who are the true capitalists and not the conservatives.
The conservatives support a regressive tax when it suits them (such as the GST), and a progressive tax when it suits them (such as coy tax).
The conservatives support free competition ONLY when it suits them, and a monopoly when it suits them (such as superleague).
Onya Sonny Bill and Mundine. NRL = pot-kettle-black!
Grog, it’s like watching an episode of “Monty Python” unfolding in real time with a cast of characters that the original creators of that program would have loved to have signed up.
They don’t even need to have rehearsals to provide the most entertaining comedy in ages.
Looks like the “Chaser” guys are out of a job now too.
Ch7 News Brisbane says Brenda’s leadership is terminal.
You have to wonder if this morning’s newspoll was the first for ages to actually have a real impact (rather than merely altering perceptions)
ruawake if you want to ever check out the head of a beaten favourite, look no further than Brenda after that party meeting LOL.
why don’t they advertise?
With a caveat that “no previous applicants need apply”:mrgreen:
bugger- maybe he’s writing an application.
If Nelson was rolled, then so, by proxy, was Costello, who had the same position on ETS as Nelson.
Another indication - if more are needed - that Costello has run his race and will soon be out of there. Well - just as soon as he musters up the courage to make the exit, that is.
So they didn’t commit hari kari for a caretaker leader? I am shocked; Perhaps they’re not all crazy.
I reckon there is a fair chance that Costello’s book is so full of ambiguity that nobody can get a clue about what he is going to do. And the saga will go on…
“Even when Nelson does extremely provocative things, such as proposing to take the party backwards on emissions trading, he doesn’t seem (so far) to blow himself up.”
Ka BOOM.
Jack the Insider’s blog is on Nelson http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/nelson_puts_the_house_on_climate_change/
apparently he had to re-write it due to Nelson changing position again!
“apparently he had to re-write it due to Nelson changing position again!”
No wonder he’s been so grumpy lately. By the time Nelson goes he’ll be glad to see it happen.
If posters would just listen to what Brenda actualy said after th meeting about ETS , it all becomes clear
Asked if the latest policy was any different to the coalition’s existing stance, he said: “Well, there are some particular…. look, there are a couple of changes in it.”
OR this quote
” Dr Nelson said Australia must move ahead with an emissions trading scheme, but insisted that it “must be informed by what the major emitters throughout the world choose to do”.
Well, now, fellow bludgers. Does anyone else find it interesting that voting intentions on primary and TPP, stubbornly refuse to move in the Coalition’s direction, despite the unrelenting negativity emanating from the O.O. and other well known cheerleaders for said coalition? It reminds me of an oft observed human phenomenon that when what you are doing doesn’t work, you re-double your efforts and do more of the same, thereby digging yourself an even deeper hole.
What an eedjut Horatio is, making himself and the endless position changes the story.
Steve 187 -
Top shot!
188 Ron, if he’d put it on his website or the Liberal Party’s where they usually put them we might have some idea of what he did say.
Read it religiously, ESJ.
188 ron, Thanks for bringing some much needed clarity to the matter!
Steve 192, your comments deserve careful analysis, study and reflection to be fully appreciated for their wisdom and insight.
scorpio
maybe a “slighty silly party” might work for the fibs
and brenda would be a lay down misere for minister for silly walks (and policy)
scorpio
maybe a “slighty silly party” might work for the fibs
and brenda would be a lay down misere for minister for silly walks (and policy)
It appears that the Australian does not know if its Arthur or Martha. Now we get: “Nelson rebuffed by own party”.
“FEDERAL Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson has failed in his bid to alter the coalition’s climate change policy.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24097697-12377,00.html
They have just as many karma sutra positions as Brenda.
Well ruawake, in their defense, Nelson is making it hard for them. It’s not easy proping up a dead duck.
excuse the American spelling - that’s defenCe.
ruawake , the same story is on News Ltd web site and a similar one on the ABC site.
When looking at your link I came across this!
{A WRIT is expected to be filed in the High Court tomorrow alleging the involvement of the secretive Exclusive Brethren in a variety of crimes, including fraud and kidnapping.
Three sisters, from India, who say they are on the run from the religious sect, allege they can link it to numerous crimes.
The women also allege the Exclusive Brethren is involved in money laundering, immigration fraud in New Zealand and bribery of police and members of the judiciary in India.
“We’ve got 3,000 pages of evidence … and now we’re going to expose this whole thing,” one of the sisters said in Canberra today.}
Pity they don’t have some info on the mob here in Australia. Howard & Costello’s good friends in prayer.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24097703-12377,00.html
Has Cossie gone off in search of the Holy Grail of Hammocks…………..the Spine Hammock (which also has an inbuilt silver platter for leadership invitations)
Wed Aug 22, 2007 10:35am AEST
“Federal Treasurer Peter Costello says he does not know why people get concerned about politicians meeting members of controversial Christian sect the Exclusive Brethren.
It has been confirmed that Prime Minister John Howard met senior members of the group in his parliamentary office two weeks ago.
The secretive sect, which does not allow its followers to vote, has previously been linked to funding and advertising campaigns supporting the Liberal Party.
But Mr Costello has told Southern Cross Radio that there is nothing wrong with politicians meeting the group.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/22/2011667.htm
Maybe this is why Tip has been silent recently. His past utterings have come back to haunt him.
Rudd should to to Nelson what Howard did when Crean was leader - completely ignore him. If Nelson is leader of the opposition at the next election Labor will win 110 seats.
“Maybe this is why Tip has been silent recently. His past utterings have come back to haunt him.”
That’s be a long list..
Poor old Brendan. Now he has the Pineapple Party circling him. He just can’t take a trick.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/no-regrets-over-qld-merger-nelson/2008/07/29/1217097232310.html
203 ShowsON - good advice. Rudd needs to help Nelson get to the eleciton. Last thing the ALP wants is for him to go down like Downer - imagine how Australia would be different if it had been Downer v Keating in 96.
Steve 205 - Quite right. I could not have put it better.
Anderson has handed his report to the National Fibbers already, so Brenda is Fibbing, its just that they will not release it for another 3 months because it will take that long to read.
Looks like the right wing nutters in the Liberal party just got rolled; I suppose we have to wait for the story in the Australian to settle down for while before one can be sure. Perhaps there is hope for the Liberal party after all, I doubt there is any hope for the Australian.
I think that after all the champagne cork popping in Brisbane over the weekend we’ll see a ‘Borg for Canberra’ push starting from tonight. Hope the Liberals in Canberra are in tip top shape for a brawl because their petty leadership battles are about to get overshadowed by the Northern menace. They should tap the Member for Maranoa on the shoulder and convert Springborg into a small fish in a big pond.
Steve 210 - very wise.
Grog & Steve
a SIXTH July Brenda CC policy emerged on th 7.30 Report tonite right from Brenda’s lips , actualy the SIXTH followed 30 seconds after th 5th
so in th intersts of clarity for our fathful Brenda supporters here , we should recap
1/ ETS to start in 2012 , without any conditions
2/ Australia cannot implement ETS without a commitment from the rest of the world
2/ ETS to start “sometime” , after China & India committ to a “timetable”
3/ ETS to start “sometime , after China & India make “committments”
4/ TODAY , the claytons “whatever” CC policy : asked if the latest policy was any different to the coalition’s existing stance, he said: “Well, there are some particular…. look, there are a couple of changes in it.”
5/ TODAY on 7.30 report “Australia must move ahead with an emissions trading scheme, but insisted that it ‘must be informed’ by what the “Major Emmitters” throughout the world choose to do”.
6/ 30 seconds later TODAY on 7.30 Report , asked what happens if the Major Emmitters choose to do nothing , do we not introduce an ETS
‘oh yes we will still introduce an ETS , um sometime , um when its appropriate and reesonable responsible to do so , but the cost of carbon would need to be low’
We all thought Hoaratio’s Hornets couldn’t be topped , but Brenda has taken CC toa new level of clarity , even live internet news servise cann’t keep up with Brenda’s positions
A good point from Jack the Insider.
{More troubling is the Coalition’s vote. The Liberals primary vote is down four points from last year’s election; the Nats down a point and on a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition is a whopping 14 points behind Labor.
The Coalition has 13 seats that sit on margins of 2 per cent or less. If yesterday’s Newspoll results were realised in a federal election, the Coalition would be flat out getting a cricket team together in the new parliament.}
The National’s vote should hold up fairly well at the next election which would make them a good chance of being the “Senior” member of the Coalition.
Just ripe for a complete takeover by the “Pineapple Party”. lol
in th interests of Brenda’s clarity , thought it was appropriate to hav two number 2/ ’s
So the Libs are now “Waiting for Cosso”.
No doubt the Libs and Nats will continue their divisive debate, Nelson will pretend he has an ETS policy and the liberal faithful will pine for a JH return.
Just like Bob Hawke in the ACTU days intervening at the right moment to induce a settlement, Costello sits on a lounge chair, umbrella drink in hand, just waiting for the call up from the Australian public to rescue them from their Labor induced depression.
What if Cosso doesn’t turn up?
You could write a play about it.
“What if Cosso doesn’t turn up?”
Santo Santoro will.
212 ron. I missed 7:30 Reporrt tonight. You’re kidding right?
Great question to ask him though - you would think he might have anticipated it a bit better.
Andrew Bolt’s blog on the subject - quite funny really, as he reacted to Maiden’s intital report… then quickly did an update, and claims it’s the Costello compirmise, and that Rudd will end up doing it too (I guess so he can later claim Rudd is really only doing Liberal policy - in light of the last two weeks a totally pathetic arguement).
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/brave_bold_but_can_the_liberals_now_stay_united/
215 GG - the great review of Waiting for Godot could well apply to “Waiting for Cosso” - Nothing happens, nobody comes, nodoby goes, it is terrible”.
And no doubt this line from the play got a run in the Lib shadow cabinet today:
“We’ll hang ourselves tomorrow (pause). Unless [Cosso] comes”.
If you want to get a feel for how Blindeye is handling climate change response policy have a look at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ckX3CRTSB0
GG
“What if Cosso doesn’t turn up?
You could write a play about it.”
In stage plays , they always have a double , Believe Dolly has been practising
GG @ 215:
Macbeth.
Yes of course Labor is genius, Liberal are d.ckheads and the popular will demands the abolition of anybody opposed to Chairman Rudd thought.
Yada Yada Yada!
Nelson is on two strikes in about as many days. First he got rolled on the Pineapple Party and then done like a dinner today. So when will king hit number 3 poleaxe him? Is tomorrow’s party room meeting too soon for someone with half a brain (if they still have anyone that qualifies) to slither the political knife through Brendan’s ribs? Will he wake up tomorrow realising he’s blown it big time and do the deed himself?
The poor git sure is living in interesting times! They should sell tickets
Of course GG a few plays/ novellas could be written about the Court of Chairman Kevin.
I suggest the following reading/viewing list:
Power without Glory
Midnight in Sicily
The Candidate (Robert Redford version)
Bob Roberts
etc etc
ESJ, Brendan’s done enough for Labor all by himself. Rudd’s getting a very easy ride lately.
Don’t cry ESJ
Grog, thanks for the link to the Bolter Blog.
Having an enjoyable read of the posts but was gobsmacked when I came across this one. Some of them must be indulging in too many “alcopops” me thinks.
{Excellent news. This is a gold-plated, sure-fire election winner. And it’s a remarkably similar position to that advocated by me and others a few days ago and which I emailed my MP about, as I expect others did.
This will likely result in Liberal government in every state and at the federal level in 3 years. Maybe even the ACT.}
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/brave_bold_but_can_the_liberals_now_stay_united/
Tearms of boredom Dario, Tears of boredom.
Once again BB,
Where’s the beef in the ETS?
Its kind of like the painless root canal that’s being proposed. I remember similar claims about the GST.
ESJ @ 224
“The Man Who Would be King”?
Scorpio
#213
Make a good point of the Libs primary vote down 4% , th LCP primary seems static at about 37% to 38% for months now , with Newspoll variances reeely being slight movements/moe differnces in the vote for th ALP , Greens or ‘others’
This underlying low static primary vote for th LCP leaves them in no mans land
.
PS/ Newspoll continues to overstate th LCP primary votes in th 2007 result by 0.3% and understote th ALP by 0.1% , do not know why but why shoulf the Loberals look better than they dod in 2007 ?
lol, winston.
How about “A Man for all seasons”?
229 ESJ, it’s not as if no modeling has been done, just not the final Treasury modeling. I can remember reading modeling from ABARE last year they modeled heaps of different scenarios. The beef is there if you look in the right places.
ESJ
Funny you should mention Midnight in Sicily. I’m just finishing Boss of Bosses, about how Bernardo Provenzano saved the Cosa Nostra after Falcone and Borsellino were assassinated.
It’s making me wonder whether John Howard might try to make a comeback…
234 It would be funny if he got rolled in the first attempt by the ‘Joh for Canberra insanity only to be thwarted by the ‘Borg for Canberra’ madness in his last hurrah.
Meanwhile, deep in the jungle…@ the horses for courses convention…
CC Petals & Brendan Buriers Inc; a rain check; ‘it’ will go the same way as this; Kev’s Klassic Klaytons: A rewind…
‘his accusation this week that journalists have misinformed the public over counter-terrorism cases and undermined the judicial system is his shameless hypocrisy.
And his call for a media commentary blackout on the reporting of these cases until all legal avenues have been exhausted raises the question: on which hilltop does Keelty stand when he makes such demands of Australia’s robust democratic institutions?
In Keelty’s ideal world there would have been no public scrutiny of the Mohamed Haneef case, which collapsed spectacularly after the AFP and the office of the Director of Public Prosecutions made crucial mistakes — mistakes that were revealed by the media. The Indian-born doctor was charged last July with providing a mobile phone SIM card to a terrorist organisation. The charges were later dropped because of lack of evidence.
Let’s refresh our memories over key events. There was the incorrect assertion that Haneef’s SIM card was found in the exploded jeep at Glasgow airport. This claim was used to support the ongoing detention of Haneef.
First Keelty tried to blame the prosecutors and then he tried to blame the British police for providing wrong information — a mistake the British police say they corrected before Haneef was charged…
When charges against Haneef were finally dropped, Keelty tried to blame the DPP, saying police were obliged to charge Haneef on the prosecutor’s advice. The DPP presses charges based on evidence put forward by the police.
Last year Keelty attacked the media for making police investigations difficult and he savaged Haneef’s barrister, Stephen Keim, for leaking a transcript of the AFP’s interview with Haneef. Everyone’s to blame but him.
Then in a speech to the Sydney Institute this week, he attacked media manipulation of public sentiment, acting in the defensive manner of someone who believes he has no case to answer. The AFP has many media spokespeople and they all want to spin the news their way.’
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/sushi-das/2008/01/30/1201369225528.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Goodness! And then…
‘Kevin Rudd says he has absolute confidence in Australian Federal Police commissioner Mick Keelty’ OZ Feb. But wait…
‘The Legal Services Commission, which ruled yesterday on Mr Keelty’s complaint against Mr Keim, sided with a new investigative report describing the Crown’s handling of the bogus terrorism case against Dr Haneef as “shambolic”. Hedley Thomas and Cameron Stewart | February 02, 2008
There’s more…John Clarke & Brian Dawe, Yes Minister & Monty Python pump the dead parrot & continue…
‘The truth behind the Mohamed Haneef affair will remain shrouded in secrecy after the man heading the inquiry declared much of the information he has seen cannot be made public…
• “The government accepts Mr Clarke’s decision as sensible approach to progressing the inquiry’s important work in fully examining the facts of the Haneef matter and reporting to government,” the spokesman said.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/haneef-inquiry-judge-classifies-info-off-limits-20080728-3m8e.html?page=-1
“The horse flu inquiry was given Royal Commission powers - our national security and our human rights cannot be any less important than the health of our horse industry.”
Someone said amongst the fofloling…as the chief dot joiner in an heroic savemyarse with pique maneuver ventured…
‘there were no grounds to believe former terror suspect Mohamed Haneef posed a security threat.’
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24097152-12377,00.html
Ah, Sushi & Hedley…come back. Hey & bring ‘Kev’ with you.:)
Grog #217 & Scorpio #227
if you go back to my #212 listing 6 Brenda CC policys including 3 today , th interpretation iin th Bolte link you provided , has now added a year now being “2012″ instead of “sometime” as listed in CC policy number 6/ that he said on tonights 7.30 Report
224 ESJ you do realise Bob Roberts is about an ultra right winger?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Pf5vkae9EA
Steve
“be thwarted by the ‘Borg for Canberra’ madness in his last hurrah.”
is this what is holding cossie from making a challenge ?
237 Ron, it was interesting the ducking of the last question here by Nelson too.
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2318136.htm
Yes Grog, there’s a little more to it than that though.
239 Ron see 205. Springborg is meeting Nelson for dinner tonight and lobbying party room members tomorrow to take the LNP as a national party. It’s not stopping Cossie but it will complicate life for Nelson, the Pineapple Party will just steamroll over the top of him like they did with Brough if he is not careful.
#215 - [Costello sits on a lounge chair, umbrella drink in hand, just waiting for the call up from the Australian public to rescue them from their Labor induced depression]
GG - This calls for a song of the Napoleonic proportion:
Remember when you ran away
And I got on my knees
And begged you not to leave
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=hnzHtm1jhL4
Well yes, but the politics is the main focus - great cameo by a young Jack Black as a Roberts wannabe bte.
The Candidate I can see a bit better.
Power Without Glory? I doubt you can make a case for a John Wren type controlling the ALP at the moment.
Well Grog defos law prevent further comment on that point dont they.
Steve
#242
You’d think Nelson had enough problems without getting involved at this sensitive time with th pineapple party wanting a National LCP The pineapple Party may also develop a new ETS policy !
Didn’t stop Frank Hardy…
{is this what is holding cossie from making a challenge ?}
Ron. No backbone more like it!
ron, the Pineapple Party don’t have policy just a ‘general direction’ or somesuch weasel word. They are just a divide and conquer of conservative forces outfit. I doubt that they will win an election anywhere but they will create havoc on a scale that only the Queensland Liberal Party truly appreciate.
Nelson ought to be a member of the gymnastics team for the Olympics, he’s done so many backflips and somersaults lately!
It’s a pity parliament isn’t sitting right now, I’d love to watch Rudd/Swan/Tanner savage these turkeys in QT.
Lawrence Springborg makes Morris Iemma look charismatic in comparison!
From PM transcript:
“Now, then Mr Rudd says that he wants to have bipartisanship on this. If Mr Rudd is serious about it, the first thing that he will do is sit down and have a discussion with me and my senior shadow ministers, make available all of his senior officials, including his Treasury officials and accept the fact that his political agenda of 2010 is not responsibly in Australia’s interest.”
So Mr Rudd has to bend over backwards but Horatio can say ‘2020 not achievable’ and that’s it!
errr 2010 not 2020
Amigo FINNS
“Remember when you ran away
And I got on my knees
And begged you not to leave”
you were thinking of cat
Lateline just did a story on the growth of bloggers running anti CC blogs , naturaly Bolt got a mention in it
Without going into th actual detail , as its not relevant to this thread but th principal is , I found th internet was ‘abused’ /manipulated by US based computer savvy suporters of one US Pres candidate , in getting positive storys out there on th net and negative re the opponent Candidate out there using many tricks
One hopes th anti Climate deniers do not do this , and make th net less than a useful souse of knowledge and info , but from Lateline the anti CC blogs hav grown significantly in th US and here in ‘oz’
Ron, we might see some policy from the Pineapple Party in a year’s time or maybe it will take two years.
J 6 of their constitution says:
Annual State Convention shall:
Determine the general policy of the party, and details thereof;
Steve “Determine the general policy of the party, and details thereof;”
Can imagine potential fundamentel policy differences between state Q’ld LCP vs other States Lib policys vs othr States Nats policys , then flowing Federally as well potentially with 3 different Federal “Party” stances ?
.
eg AWB one desk type difference
257 Ron, Andrew Fraser gives a pretty good account of their main problems just in this state. It would be a nightmare for them come election time nationally and conserve independents would spring up all over the place at their expense.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24093561-5006786,00.html
Dear oh dear!
I am entirely in agreement with Bushfire Bill (that would be earlier threads), about the timidity of the Rudd Government. I am unhappy. I expected a great deal more.
Has not happened.
I am in South Aus, no water, no hope. I am dismayed.
Also, no water, no hope, Rann Government.
Then, in an effort to underline the timidity, Kev retains Christmas Island, sentencing the poor devils to an uncertain future.
Not happy, Kev.
thats an excellent analysis by Andrew Fraser , and your point of “conserve independents would spring up all over the place at their expense” is a natural politcal outcome
I’m staggered the Federal Libs could not see the Federal mess this could lead to
both in party meetings , Fed parliament & future Fed electons But this is all positive for Sir Kev as Labor can stay where they are policy/politically
Bloody hell, some people are just never happy. He reversed the policy from one of mandatory detention to one of detention only for those proven to be high risk ffs. Given the amount of money the Howard govt wasted on upgrading Christmas Island, it may as well be used for those who need to be detained for whatever reason.
Also Dario
part of your valid point includes th onus of proof beeing legally reversed Th act of illegal entry I think is not now deemed to be a cause for holding alone , th Dept has to demonstate that risk you mentioned
Crikey Whitey
what do you wish Kev to do on CC ?
ron
Kev is tracking well on CC. Wish he and Penny would work much, much faster on water for the Coorong, in South Aus.
Nelson and crew are simply lost in the fast diminishing woods.
Crikey Whitey
am not familar with the detail of th water problem for the Coorong , other than what one sees in News Perhaps do up a fully costed submission & try and see her or Tanya there , or send it to them to there personal attention There offices will be forsed to at least acknowledge
Th biggest problem i see for ‘oz’ overall re water is Sir Kev cann’t make rain of course and there’s not enough falling Pity some of th economics of deal powered Delalinisation
‘desal’ not ‘deal’
with solar of course !
ron, it is actually not illegal under Australian law (and has never been) to enter Australia by any means, as long as you are seeking asylum and present yourself to the authorities as soon as possible. Whether or not your subsequent request for asylum is granted is another matter altogether. Howard managed to blur this distinction very well in 2001.
thanks Dario
Saw Chris Evans on 7.30 Report talking to Kerry O’Brien about reversing th onus and making th Dept justify th risk and I see he was refferring to ‘detention’ as opposed to asylum
Today at th ANU Chris Evans announced
“Currently persons who are unlawful may be detained even though the departmental assessment is that they pose no risk to the community. That detention may be prolonged. Currently, detention is too often the first option, not the last.
Under Labor’s reforms, persons will be detained only if the need is established. The presumption will be that persons will remain in the community while their immigration status is resolved. If a person is complying with immigration processes and is not a risk to the community then detention in a detention centre cannot be justified. The department WILL HAVE TO JUSTIFY a decision to detain – not presume detention.
Labor believes that the retention of mandatory detention on arrival of unauthorised arrivals for the purpose of health, identity and security checks is a sound and responsible public policy. Once checks have been successfully completed, continued detention while immigration status is resolved is unwarranted.
The key determinant of the need TO DETAIN A PERSON a person in an immigration detention centre will be risk to the community – a modern risk management approach.”
So thats one howard policy reversed
“it is actually not illegal under Australian law (and has never been) to enter Australia by any means, ”
But it is “Un-Australian”, especially if you throw your kids over the side whilst illegally entering Australia, do we really want people here who do that, seems like something a terrorist would do.
But those days are hopefully gone, the awful dog whistling has finally been silenced except perhaps for a few pitiful remnants vainly trying to emulate their master long silenced.
Mal Brough gives the Pineapple Party one last spray. Now that the LNP has its foot in Canberra the Federal Executive of the Liberal Party can expect to be making this sort of an exit sooner rather than later. As Brough says getting tangled up with the Pineapple Party is much worse than the election loss.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24099447-5006786,00.html
Steve
You do have to feel a little bit sorry for him, kicked out of govt, kicked out of parliament, his advice on aborigines rejected, Kev doesn’t want him,his advice on the merger rejected, rejected for the presidency.
The poor kid, many are saying what a great bloke he is and how much he has to offer but no-one wants to listen to him.
Codger@236,
Keelty seemed such a decent bloke. How much simpler it would have been to admit mistakes, but suspect he is covering too many other backs.
See similarities with Colin Powell, in that they accept sh*t-kicking as part of their office even though they would not in private life.
Obedience to their masters,whoever they are.
But truth is seeping out. And may decency prevail.
Mal Brough: “This experience has been much worse for me than losing the election.”
It’s called karma, Mal. Isn’t it wonderful?!! ;-D~~
Funny. Brough is revealed to be just another self-seeking, look after number one, politician and manipulator. The white knight hype that had built up around him was there for the keeping - but he’s now shown exactly what he’s made of.
Enough is never enough for some.
I couldn’t believe what I was hearing this morning on ABC Radio National. That annoying yapping FW Chris Pyne was saying that he never saw or heard Nelson was shifting Liberals’ policy away from the one it took to the 2007 election, the 2012 policy. Is this man living in a parallel universe from us punters?
Maybe this article from Shanananana should enlighten him:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24099494-11949,00.html
A good quote from Paul Kelly also from Rupert. And Rupert is absolutely right, on yer Rupert: [Many business leaders endorsed the view of Rupert Murdoch that "the planet deserves the benefit of the doubt"] - game, set and match.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24098310-12250,00.html
Oh dear. Another who bought the Howard fear campaign hook, line and sinker. How did the 911 terrorists get into the US Rod? On a leaky boat? You must be kidding. Give yourself a triple.
It has been well established and was the subject of inquiry how the lies about ‘children overboard’ came about and was perpetuated even though early on known to be untrue. We know now the complicity of certain government ministers in this and it bought us the lovely name Rodent then Lying Rodent.
There was nobody throwing kids over-board. The only people you would find in the water would be the result of a sunken boat - and there is supscion that the then Howard govt at one time may have instructed not to rescue such persons in relation to the SIEV-X, it was/is allegation/suspicion because the govt of the time was so depraved that it was thought possible they could do such a thing.
It is not un-Australian to flee persecution. I wonder how we would see things if Australia was the despotic or destitute country.
Poor Mal. Born to rule … until mugged by reality.
Amigo FINNS
“That annoying yapping FW Chris Pyne was saying (on ABC today) that he never saw or heard Nelson was shifting Liberals’ policy away from the one it took to the 2007 election, the 2012 policy”
Glad someone else finds Pyne annoying Am never sure whats more annoying about Chris Pyne , th plume , th tone or the stupidity of th actual words sprouting out The effort you relay today is not only CC denial , its denail of whatever happened in 2007 under Howard
The Howard government never produced any evidence to support their claim that parents threw their children overboard.
The evidence that Howard pointed to in the week before the 2001 election was a report of government ministers making the claim that parents had thrown their children overboard.
Yes, in the Howard government their own baseless claims counted as evidence.
The hypocrisy of these people is breathtaking:
MPs need more work to do: Opposition
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/30/2318718.htm?section=justin
“The Federal Opposition says Parliament is not being given enough work to do.
Parliament is in the midst of a winter break and also had a lengthy non-sitting period in April and May.
Shadow attorney-general George Brandis says Parliament should be sitting for more weeks this year.
“You’d think when the people change government, the new party that comes into government, after all those years in Opposition, would have a very full agenda,” he said.
“In fact this year the Commonwealth Parliament, the House of Representatives, will sit for only 18 weeks, which is the fewest number of sitting weeks of a Commonwealth Parliament that anyone around here can remember.”
This is coming from the party that caused such disruption to parliament over Friday sitting days that the government abandoned the extra day.
I am so pleased that their time in opposition is becoming a living death for them.
MPs need more work to do: Opposition
Maybe they could keep themselves busy by actually looking after the people in their electorate. Maybe Brandis is bored shitless because he’s a senator. That’s understandable as I am at a loss to understand what opposition senators actually do when parliament isn’t sitting.
Attend Senate committee meetings.
It’s true though. The lack of sittings is both bizarre and disappointing. You’d think a new Government would have more of a legislative agenda.
That’s not to say they have no work. The Coalition has given themselves lots of works in setting up all these Senate inquiries and Select Committees. They just aren’t bothered enough to actually show up to the inquiries or feign much interest in them.
It’s a standard issue for any opposition to say that any government isn’t letting parliament sit often enough. Of course opposition’s want parliament to sit more because they get free TV coverage for all their criticisms of the government. And they get roughly 50% of the speaking time, which is a lot more than when parliament isn’t sitting (Ministers can call press conferences whenever they like and it will be reported somewhere, the same can’t be said for shadow ministers).
The fact is over the last 20 years more and more of the federal budget is appropriated through executive regulations (i.e. ministers deciding to spend money on things) rather than legislated appropriations. About $150 billion this year will be spent based on decisions by the cabinet and ministers, not by appropriation through parliament.
I do not think this is ideal, but that is the way things have gone since the early 1980s, and was radically accelerated during the Howard years. This means there is just less legilsation to pass now, nearly half of all spending decisions are decided based on who is the minister.
Also in ‘oz’ article
Mr Stockdale (the Federal Libs Pres) said he abandoned his insistence that the new party president be a Liberal after the Supreme Court last Friday overruled a decision by the state Liberal council to cancel the weekend convention. “I consulted key figures and we concluded it was impractical to maintain our insistence on the presidency,”
So th Presidency was th only objection Everything else was OK , the balance of th Executive , the policy formulation & who’d hav control of it , th future efect on State electons & th mess such a new Party causes Federaly One would hav thought these issues would hav been considered Federaly months ago and the proposal blocked Federaly or tough pre conditons put on it Stockdale like Brough comes out of this poorly
Poor Rod, the sarcasm was clearly lost on some people.
Crikey 259 “Then, in an effort to underline the timidity, Kev retains Christmas Island, sentencing the poor devils to an uncertain future.
Not happy, Kev.
Comments made by some of “the poor devils” show they unlike you are happy with Kev’s “timidity” and releived that others won’t have to go through the same ordeals they went through.
Christmas island stands empty and as i see it will only be used as a stopover for health and ID and security risk checks of people arriving by boat. They will then be out in the community until their refugee status is determined.
A few points from Evan’s speech
“5. Detention in Immigration Detention Centres is only to be used as a last resort and for the shortest practicable time;
6. People in detention will be treated fairly and reasonably within the law; and
7. Conditions of detention will ensure the inherent dignity of the human person.”
http://webdiary.com.au/cms/?q=node/2451
(Speech delivered on Tuesday 29 July 2008 at the Centre for International and Public Law, Australian National University)
“At my first meeting with Department officials as Minister for Immigration, I asked who was detained at the immigration detention centre on Nauru and at what stage were their claims for asylum.
I was told there were eight Burmese and 81 Sri Lankans there. Virtually all of this group had already been assessed as refugees but had been left languishing on Nauru.
When I asked why the eight Burmese had not been settled in Australia in accordance with international law there was an embarrassed silence.
Eventually the answer emerged. The Howard Government had ordered they stay put. They had been left rotting on Nauru because the Howard Government wanted to maintain the myth that third country settlement was possible.
Sadly, Australia’s treatment of asylum seekers had sunk this low.”
282
ShowsOn
All of them? All of the time?
WE will decide WHICH laws to follow and WHEN we want to follow them!
Senators don’t attend every committee meeting, only meetings of the committees they are assigned to. It would be extremely un-parliamentary for a Senator to fail to attend a Senate meeting without a legitimate excuse (health reasons, other serious personal issues that would need to be explained to the Committee chair and President of the Senate.)
Shows ON - doesn’t that kind of attitude usually result in criminal action against those that broke the law????
Bring it on.
Rudd is off to the Olympics next week, then parliament resumes!
I’m missing Question Time, I wish I could watch Nelson and his bunch of incompetent hasbeens being savaged by the Government.
Anyone ever thought of Friday sittings for Brandis?
http://www.liberal.org.au/info/news/detail/20080307_BackdownonFridaysittingssavedGovernmentfromHighCourthumiliation.php
Meltdown going on and heads exploding at Bolt’s blog. Many vowing never to vote Liberal again.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/blame_not_nelson_but_his_colleagues/
Seems that Turnbull is being blamed for the lot.
Heheheheheh…
And who are the right wing crowd that frequent Bolt’s blog going to vote for, the greens? The problem for the Liberal party is not the extremes, it’s regaining the center.
Charles
Could it be time for another Pauline Hanson reserection?
Wow BB-
I’ve never read Bolt’s blog. Where did they find all those ESJ’s? I thougbt he was unique..
well Vera-
they appear to have the same kind of analytic abilities as PH.
wow… well, I’m never going in there again… bolts place is like a big room full of nazi’s on crystal meth shouting at each other
Jen
and they drag their knuckles along the ground behind them when they walk
Sounds like Bolt himself has given up on the Libs. I thought that would happen, given his stance on CC and the expectation he prospered that Nelson would produce a “courageous” CC/ETS policy. Expectations heightened then deflated badly.
Classified Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
wow… well, I’m never going in there again… bolts place is like a big room full of nazi’s on crystal meth shouting at each other
Classified yous civilised people don’t think like a Barbarian You should hav gone there under th pen name of “Andrewe Bolte” , proceed to put some far left ideas up that you state that Brenda (the ex Laborite you think reely bleieves in ) , and state that toffy Turnbull supports gay legislaton , and that thats how he won his seat on the ‘back’ of gay votes
The possibilites ar endless to creat havocs , maybe i will , beinfg such an affiable guy and all
Yes Bolt’s blog is an “interesting place” and like Classified I don’t think I’ll venture there again. You can see where Bolt gets his finely honed sense of balance and impartiality from.
Still it had some entertainment value. I particularly like one poster who looked back with envy on when Latham was opposition leader. That is, he thought Latham showed more fibre as a leader than the Liberal hierarchy. Thats funny
Good point Ron, a lot of possibilities. Perhaps I could call myself “Warren of Toorak” and bitterly deride the takeover of the liberal party by bounders from Sydney who have never even set foot in Geelong Grammar or Scots College! Menzies would never had stood for it.
Yes, just one brief experience of Bolt’s pack of rabid fanboys in full foaming-at-the-mouth mode is enough to leave a vivid, disturbing and life-long memory.
He must be so proud of the quality of his supporters.
Would be funny ron, but if you do go in there, make sure you’ve got overalls on and something to wipe the seats. You dont want to get any of whats flying around in there on you
BTW, are there any banking industry insiders out there? Noting the recent disclosure of further sub-prime losses by Merril Lynch and flow-on effects here, I can’t help wonder what will happen with Lehman Brthers, who as I understand it still have not revealed the full extent of their sub-prime losses, despite a large exposure. The contracts must be coming due soon, in which case the gig will be up for them I would expect. But interested if others have better info than I.
I should add, I do NOT believe the Australian banking industry or economy is about to collapse. I am just interested as to what might happen to the US economy. If a few banks here get embarrassed for making high risk decisions without adequate checkind good, I say. The regrettable part is that the fact they believe they can sqeeze customers to make up the loss without fear and thus illustrates how much of a monopoly they have become, and that they need to be re-regulated.
Alan Kohler made a few good points about this.
While the US banks had written down the CDOs to some degree, NAB essentially wrote them down to 10% of face value. Much further than the US banks had previousl done. (Though Merills have now started).
There’s a lot more to go if all the banks take them there - conversely NAB may make a reaonasbly significant wind-fall gain if they subsequently get to write-up the value of the securities. Even if they only get back 30 cents in the dollar, that’s a lot more than 10.
You should be greatful Australian have the ability to squeeze customers like that, to be honest. It’s that ability that keeps them looking OK in the current environment. If all the banks were running losses on their entire mortgage books of 1% per annum then they would be bankrupt very quickly. I’d prefer to pay the extra basis points than to have wholesale collapse of the banking sector.
The more scary story is the European banks. This “sub-prime crisis” is not really a sub-prime crisis any more, it’s a credit issue. And it’s global. The difference is that the European accounting and disclosure laws are less strict than the US… Heard this morning that many European banks would be subject to forcible closure if they were under the US rules. They have insufficient capital when measured under the US standards
Socrates @ 308 said:
Totally agree, We pay for their mistakes, but even the current govt doesn’t have the balls to take them on like they should. It’s the one area where I think PM Rudd should and could show so initiative.
Won’t happen though.
Socrates
$308
agree re more regulation & our banks ar not at risk , they hav more liqidity than th fragile US unregulated system But th cost of funds will rise , and we’ll (consumers ultimately pay
According to th Citibank assesment , re CO’s collaterised debt exposure etc ANZ has 23 billion , Wespac 9 billion CBA 3 billion , don’t hav NAB’s buts well above Westapac’s , and this is th area that ANZ hav proved most of there 2.2 billion bad provisions & Nab there 1.2 billion
The freeze on liquidity is worse in th US , according to US Reserve last 12 months has dropped 80 billion and annualised this year heading to 150 billion , and both US candidates still suport a laissez fair unregulated capitalist system , th American way , despite th Wall Street mess
Rates , the problem with th US is th degree of exposure the US system has taken on greedily without proper credit principals , and the bottom may not hav been reached Think “Capital’ needs some regulation to protect istself from its own greed , and more importantley protect small bus and th folks
vera Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
“Could it be time for another Pauline Hanson reserection?”
If your a labor supporter wish for it, the last round did untold damage to the Liberal party as it lurched to the right to pick up a vote that would have come back to them through preferences anyway.
There is no doubt in my mind that about 10% of the population supports Andrew Bolt’s nonsense and the crap the Sydney shock jocks go on with, just as there is 10% that support the greens, but you don’t win elections pandering to either group.
Amigo Ronnie, the great satan is selfish again at the WTO talk:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7532302.stm
As usual the great satan wants to protect its “poor” farmers with subsidies. Thankfully, OZ is on a good solid ground as it has or on the way to have many bilateral FTAs with key trading partners:
Australia’s Free Trade Agreements
* Singapore - Australia FTA
* Thailand - Australia FTA
* Australia - United States FTA
* Australia New Zealand Closer Economic Relations
* Australia-Chile FTA
Free Trade Agreements under Negotiation
* Australia-ASEAN-New Zealand FTA Negotiations
* Australia-China FTA Negotiations
* Australia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) FTA Negotiations
* Australia-Japan FTA Negotiations
* Australia-Malaysia FTA Negotiations
Free Trade Agreements under Consideration
* Australia-India FTA Feasibility Study
* Australia-Korea FTA Study
* Indonesia-Australia FTA Feasibility Study
http://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/ftas.html
Haven’t you noticed? They usually use names of the Apostles, or Biblical names, e.g.:
“James of …”
“Peter of…”
“John of …”
“Adam of…”
“Warren” is too atheistic. Like the “… of Toorak” though.
To be fair, Australian banks have made comapratively few mistakes.
One of the vaguaries of the Australian System was that the banks fund your mortgage primarily by borrowing in the short term money market. The banks passed this risk on to you when you signed a floating mortgage. This exposed you to the changes in short term rates.
Hence, when the RBA raised short term rates, your mortgage went up.
However, when the price of short term money rose for other reasons, your mortgage also went up.
The banks have not changed the fixed rate loans - becuase they didn’t need to. When you sign a fixed rate loan the bank borrows money for a longer time frame and so is unaffected by the subsequent increases in rates.
The broader Australian public was probably unaware that this could happen, but it was there in the contracts.
Go Bolt, what is he billed as? Australia’s most talked about columnist. I don’t see left wing Blogocracy getting that sort of treatment
Finally a bit of movement in Mayo.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24093560-5006787,00.html
Rates Analyst welcome back I haven’t seen your posts for a while either that or I ahven’t been paying attention. How do you see the current property market will housing prices drop?
JOM @ #316: Indeed, Andrew Bolt has been mentioned on this thread nearly twice as often as Kevin Rudd. If anyone cares what I think, I’m getting a bit bloody sick of hearing about him.
Will Brenda have a different version of his ETS today after Iron Bar has a quiet word?
OK William, I hear you
Kevin Rudd, Kevin Rudd, Kevin Rudd
314
Bushfire Bill Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
… Ron, a lot of possibilities. Perhaps I could call myself “Warren of Toorak”
Haven’t you noticed? They usually use names of the Apostles, or Biblical names
Well Bushfire , obviously th name “Ron” needs some fluffing up ! Also whilst we ar discussing names , th ‘oz’ expressions for idiots is usualy ‘quack’ , “quack quack” or “wanker” , so we should crown th climate denier guy , seeing we hav ‘Cossie’/Captain Smirk & Dolly
JOM,
I’ve been reading, but I tend to only comment when I think I’m better informed than the average blogger… hence I’ve been quiet until the topic turned to Finance / Banking.
Housing is in a slightly precarious state…
I think the upper end housing will fall. Too much money lost in shares and reduced salaries for bankers.
The more mid-level housing I’m not sure. Not looking for massive rises but could well do better than shares (for example) over the next little while. Falling petrol prices will put a bit of money back into the budget of these buyers.
Also, there is a really strong bid for rents. It indicates latent housing demand and the ability to pay up.
The final reason I think we won’t see the massive falls in the property market we’ve seen overseas is that we haven’t had a shift in credit standards too much - only a shift in price. People with reasonable credit can still get loans in Australia, if they want them. In the US, the tightening credit standards have removed whole swathes of borrowers who can no longer access credit.
If the RBA starts easing rates next year I think there could be a fair number of people who start looking to stop renting and buy.
So property flat for a year before recovering later on.
But back to more psephological issues…
Ron can I please ask you to place the letter ‘e’ in words ending in e, as your posts are difficult to read. Thank you
Pies’ blog is much worse than the one I musn’t mention
319 WB
agreed.
Far more wind than required ’round here.
Rationally discussing the irrational is silly.
Banking:
I’m not a banking insider, but I did notice John Stewart’s replacement was mentioned today - sounds like they’ve named their scapegoat, or more likely from what I know of him that he’s going to fix the problems before he leaves of his own accord, whether the board likes it or not. That might mean they think the end of their problems, or ability to control them, is close at hand. Otherwise his replacement will be in for a short ride, and that’s not a good look for anyone.
JoM
alot of swear words end in ‘e’ , especially regarding Liberals , so was taught to avoid that letter
As I mentioned above NAB were pretty brutal in their assessment of the value of their CDOs…
Not too much scoep for further losses there. Their presentation (available from asx.com) does mention another $4.5bn of corporate lending, but so long as this is not structured it would be difficutl to see the portfolio losing more than about 20%….
What was so horrific in the CDOs was that the tranching of the structure means entire securities can be wiped out in one go. Much harder to have that happen in a portfolio of normal loans. Even defulting companies normally pay back something…
323 Rates
I reckon it’ll be a lot worse than that, otherwise on a global scale we’ll be left with some of the poorest quality, but highest price housing in the western world.
I can’t see that happening.
The independent study last week that puts Sydney well in rental oversupply and the 30% per month drops in value in the US at present are closer to the mark for mine. There are most definitely areas that are still tight though.
Remember the IMF rated our stock at 62% overvalued earlier this year. I can’t see us avoiding a global repricing, and what’s worse is that it’d kill off future investment too.
Well, in truth, people, any time after I’ve visited the Bolt blogsite, I invariably feel like a long, hot, thoroughly cleansing shower. Ooh, it’s a nasty little place, eh?
324 JoM, All you have to watch out for is that ‘Pineapple’ doesn’t migrate down to your political local area because then you will really have something to worry about with words ending in ‘e’.
That’s good work Ron
Stevs can you explain the pineapple term please.
ron@327
racking my brain , but can’t come up with one.
‘t’s and ‘k’s no probs, but e’s have got me beat.
zillow.com is a great site to see that the u.s housing market is rooted.
omigod,
We also have the most property-benefiting tax system in the world…. (CGT exemptions and Negative Gearing)
Our foreclosure laws are different too, so there’s far less reason to dump properties. No “jingle mail” here and for good reason.
The tax system was a significant reason for the run up in prices and will help keep a bid in them.
One of my pet peeves is the comparison of Australian housing averages to the US. When the US has 50% of it’s population in 2 cities their data will look different too!
The Pineapple Party was the working name for the merged LNP in Queensland.
Amigo FINNS
#313
July 30th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
“Amigo Ronnie, the great satan is selfish again at the WTO talk:”
Washington said ‘that the “safeguard clause” protecting developing nations from unrestricted imports had been set too low”.
Absolutely , they still want to flood poor developing countries with there subsidized agricuture etc , often at expense of ‘OZ’ more price competitive (without subsidies) business’s Anti CC , anti WTO , financial anti regulation = greed , and all US politicans end there speechs with ‘God bless America’
Also looked at that CC problem for India & China you raied , was surprised there’s 600 million Indians alone without electricity !! Yet almost all of th US citizens do hav elecricity Both have unacceptable high emmissions & without both cut over time , CC success is unlikely
But Kyoto provided for ‘less developed countries’ like India to get emmissions targets dispensations vs developed countries like USA Therefore th USA stanse on Kyoto (that India must start at day one at th same emmissions target criteria as USA is not only selfish & unfair when Kyoto allows for th India’s , but is deliberatley giving them a “mafia” offer , knowing they will refuse , so that means th USA has an excuse to get out of Kyoto ?
and Brenda’s policy taken to its logical conclusion is actualy supporting that unfair USA stanse , as he knows India can not agree
I do like Nelson I think he is personable unfortunately he has to realise you can’t be all things to all men.
The Oz has the heading Nelson strikes another climate change position.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24101583-601,00.html
I suppose this is what happens when your leadership is balanced on a knife edge. Brendan just be yourself if you fall you fell because you were yourself, then there will be no misgivings.
and FINNS ,
US stanse on WTC of course as you already knows stops poor countries to be financially independednt developig there own food & agric industries
Very funny response JoM after reading this:
Steve, as I said before Nelsons problem is he wants to be all things to all men, unfortunately that can never happen.
336
I agree that things here are different. I just find it hard to believe that we’ll trend away from the rest of the world. I think reality is already fairly well disconnected from the current story. I’ll have to hunt that IMF data - but I don’t believe it was a US comparison at all - I think it was based upon looking at the difference between the relatively recent spike vs the long term trend.
And yes, I’m a cynic when it comes to the RE industry. The idea that RE has gone from a long term investment to a guaranteed short-medium profit machine doesn’t stack up as far as I’m concerned. At the very least it’s pricing a lot of Australians out of a better standard of living and I don’t believe that’s good for the community in general.
More likely out of his depth.
That’s because the Ruddmeister is just a little dull WB.
The ‘B’ man is never dull. Scary and often unintentionally amusing, but never dull.
JoM the one consistency about Nelson and the ETS is his inconsistency. It just gets worse each time he tries to explain it.
Onimod I agree with you when you say, “At the very least it’s pricing a lot of Australians out of a better standard of living and I don’t believe that’s good for the community in general.”
Steve he’s out of his depth becasue he wants to appeal to everybody. If you want to be everybodies friend in the end you’ll be nobody’s friend.
Yes, but with inflation runnning at 5% another year or so of flat prices counts as another 5% reduction (in real terms).
Our prices were also far more contained over the period 2005-2007 which makes the need for a substantial fall now less compelling.
Steve #346 I agree
Apostle “John” of Melbourne… Nelson is doomed.
The seeds of his damnation will be seen as his practice of trying to please whoever-it-was-he-was-last-speaking-to.
That’s OK for a while, to excite a bit of interest, but you can’t keep it up forever.
He was never leadership material: weak, vacillating, inconsistent, and a known traitor to many of the causes he took up. Once he was Labor. He vowed he’d never voted Liberal in his life. But we know now he was already negotiating to become a Liberal party member. Far too opportunistic and a real amateur in the midst of hard-bitten professionals like Minchin and his bovver boys.
Other leadership contenders…
Costello has well-known fatal flaws: mainly being that he has jelly for a backbone, disguised as “enigmatic silence”. A bully through and through and noth worth commenting on further.
Turnbull: not a politician. Smart, brilliant even… but not cut out to lead a party or a country.
Havern’t got a clue who else the Libs are going to put forward as their Great White Hope, but if any of the above get the guernsey, the party will be decimated at any election where they are the leader.
The Libs need to go through a period of penance and revitalisation. There’s no easy path back to power. Until they say their Hail Marys (and for a good while after they finally do) they’re wandering in the wilderness.
This is a party that today proudly claimed they had reset their policy on GW back to the one they took to the election last year. But they lost that election… I mean, what kind of fools are they to be proud of reintroducing a failed policy?
Really, they’re in a terrible situation.
All yours for $140k…….Viva Las Vegas http://tours4.vht.com/Viewer/PhotoGallery.aspx?ListingID=1146421&Style=PAN
He is out of his depth because he has no idea what he is talking about. Yesterday was bad enough today is just ludicrous. To come out of a Party romm meeting muttering about ‘in principle’ support is madness.
That’s probably a better gamble than most you’ll get in Las Vegas.
But only marginally.
Bushfire Bill and Steve I agree he is doomed.
As for other contenders I don’t know but hopefully Costello will come through and challenge for the position closer to the election. He has to kill the spinelss rumors. As for Bully wasn’t Kevin the same before his and during his rise?
Bushfire
If only the wider public was informed of the simple stupidity contained in your last 4 lines.
They can’t think their way out of a wet paper bag at the moment.
They’ve devolved to the point where they aren’t even self aware any more.
351 red wombat
LV is falling 3% per month at present - offer $120-125k on 90 day settlement maybe?
That’s the first time I’ve heard of Rudd being labelled a “bully”. Maybe your definition of bully” is a bit too broad.
A bully is someone who has no personal courage at all. In fact they’re usually a coward. They rely on others to prop them up exclusively. Just on this alone Rudd is out, but Costello is still in.
Costello made his name by being the King Of Question Time… he revelled in it… but only because he had a tame - one might say servile - Speaker. Very easy to strut your stuff then, when you can have your bum boy shut up the Opposition with a single word.
Time and time again, though, he had the chance to go for the leadership, but always squibbed it. No guts, no glory.
Costello was bullied as a child by his brother Tim. Bullied is as bullied was. Tim grew up. Peter never did.
They’re not “rumours” about him being spineless. They’re the truth, out there for all to see, repeatedly. His gutlessness, disguised behind that “arrogant” smirk has become his trademark. But when it was time for him to stand and deliver, he always found a reason to decline. The man has no faith in himself. Why should anyone have faith in him?
Cheers BB I understand your opinion but out there in the general population which aren’t tragics like us I don’t think there is that perception of him.
Sorry to be a bit late on the Bolt topic, and also sorry to put you through another one on the topic, William, but: (a) note the warning on the site that posts might be edited, and (b) note that my bro, who wrote what he considered reasonable entries for the site, says that some of them were censored. They were not rude, they were just comments more-or-less on the IPCC side of the CC fence.
I would say some of the Bolt posts are like some, but not all, of the posts here: made by apparatchiks; plenty of trolls; and plenty whose thought structures are a bit like Bolt’s: have an enemy; when in doubt attack; when not in doubt, still attack; verbal the enemy; when not attacking, whinge about how unfair something is; pick a statistic, any statistic that ‘prove’s’ your case; avoid trend or complex analysis like the plague; if thirty peak scientific organisations say one thing and you disagree with them, support the individual who disagrees with them; forget irony; forget nuance; express no doubt; et cetera, et cetera. Hmmm, I might have to clean up my act…
When discussing the Bolt phenomena with another reli, she started with the line: ‘Love him or loathe him…’ which is exactly where he wants everyone. Well, actually, I leave him.
All that said, I’ll give Bolt one big pat on the back: he was right about Howard, and took significant professional risks being forthright about Howard, long before it was fashionable amongst the Howard hacks. Some of them have still not got it.
Brenda has always been a stop gap leader, he only won by 3 votes which indicated the instability we now see. I doubt he has the numbers anymore if a leadership spill was brought on.
Costello is playing a spoilers role, he has no intention of becoming leader but he hates Talcum and will do all he can to make sure anyone but Turnbull is leader.
So who is left? Nobody to my mind, the Libs need to find someone with at least 60% support, maybe after a couple of election losses they will find one.
358 John of Melbourne - Don’t agree with that at all. The desperates in the Liberal Party and their rusted on supporters like him but not the general public. Tell me John, why did the Libs lose the last election if everyone knew that that magnificent symbol of all that is right in a politician, Costello, was going to take over the leadership during that term? In effect the last election was Howard then Costello versus Rudd. He obviously didn’t inspire people to vote for him then did he?
Bolt is doing nothing wrong, his brief is to stir the pot and he does it wonderfully. It’s the ABC who are failing their audience by taking him seriously. The 3AW breakfast chaps handle Bolt perfectly, one refuses to talk to him and the other just laughs at him for half an hour, and Bolt laughs along with him. A lot of people lump Bolt in with Alan Jones, Zemanek and that lot, Bolt is no where near as malicious or vindictive as them. He just enjoys being a contrarian.
358 “Cheers BB I understand your opinion but out there in the general population which aren’t tragics like us I don’t think there is that perception of him.”
Would this be based on your reading of a Melbourne blog, Jom, or something substantial? Or just a feeling in your water?
359 Boerwar
Was it luck, good management, or just that same bad strategy you described above?
The only reason he got any publicity was that same bad strategy meant he stood out from the crowd on the right as opposed to the the same message constantly (and boringly) coming from the left.
He’s a shock jock with a pen, and I honestly don’t think there is a lower intelligence or less productive job description than that. The only risk he carries is irrelevance. That it’s taken him this long to get this much publicity…that about sums him up for me.
Gary the last election was a case of anyone but Howard. He was in there long enough to have made enough enemies that just wanted him gone. People I spoke to mainly said he’d been there long enough and it was time to give someone else a go. If Howard had stepped down voluntarily after APEC and hand the batton to Costello it may have been a different story but he refused and wanted to be pushed which initself would have agrivated a lot of Howard supporters who were only interested in “Howard forever Costello never” crap.
The federal Libs should have learned the lessons of State Labor as soon as a party leader is poison dump him/her and move on this revitalises the party and people are once again re-engaged.
“Australia in implementing an emissions trading scheme can only do so when it’s ready to be implemented” .
Wow Brenda how intuitive.
Bushfire Bill wrote:
365 JoM
Against my better judgement I’m going to engage, and probably just once.
That reasoning is so ridiculously fanciful, and I know were on a blog so brevity is important, but still…
Please explain the current machinations of the LP if the only reason was that it time for ’someone else’s go”?
Seriously.
I think the people you’re talking to are either lying to you, or I just don’t know what.
Apologies for the formatting errors in my post.
Yes, whereas the next election will be the “anyone but Brendan Nelson” election, with most people figuring that the safest option will be to stick with the current Prime Minister.
The alternative is to vote for a party which changes their climate change policies every day.
Onimod I’m only reporting what I got told in conversation with probably 40 - 50 people. Most people were just sick of JWH.
What on earth are you doing in a room full of people who’s only measure of governance is time?
Do you think there might be a little bit more behind their reasoning than they’re prepared to tell YOU in a conversation.
Fantasy land mate, seriously.
RX
thats OK , this time
how come your blog came out pastel grey , colour of your keypad
Ron LOL, yep grey keyboard (and forgot to close a quote tag).
“Costello was never more than a pale shadow of the man whose performance he did clearly admire: Paul Keating”
Absolutely
Onimod the majority of conversation was between mates and work colleagues you’re right there may be a little bit more behind their reasoning than they were prepared to tell me in a conversation but I’m only reporting what was mainly said to me, I make no other claims. Fantasy land I don’t think so.
John - “People I spoke to mainly said he’d been there long enough and it was time to give someone else a go.”
And these people couldn’t be persuaded to vote for Howard this time knowing Costello would take over? Surely if Costello was so inviting that would be the change they would be looking for. Obviously Costello wasn’t their man then. What makes you think he would be now?
376
C’mon John - you’re either going to stand behind your statement and reasoning in 365 or you’re not.
Just think - 3.5 million years of evolution.
Howard managed to keep the “broad church” Liberals together and for this he has my respect (only on this). But in doing so he has done a great deal of damage.
The best thing for him to do was to hand over to Tip in 2006, get out while he was on top. Be he realised that his beloved Fibs would tear themselves apart if he was not head Fib.
So he hung on, delayed the inevitable and lost government, his seat and his legacy.
Would Ratty have allowed the pineapple merger? Of course not he would have just said NO, end of story.
Unless the Fibs can find someone like Howard they will disintegrate, but he made sure that he neutered anyone who could do the job.
His standard debating procedure is evasion. Don’t hope for much more, you’ll only be disappointed.
JoM, Calls it as he sees it, same with all of us. I think he deserves some kudos, its not easy being a Fiberal at the moment.
Oh the transparency, stand clear evidence based incoming…LOL
‘At a press conference in Canberra this afternoon, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd would not commit to increased royal commission powers for Mr Clarke.
“The Clarke inquiry is still under way,” he said. “I think we should be calm, temperate and responsible and wait for the outcome of that inquiry.”
…Last night, the police told the Herald: “The AFP has always been aware of ASIO’s position on this issue and the AFP will be providing its position on this to the Clarke inquiry and not via the media.”
Today, the inquiry hears from Ramzi Jabbour, the force’s head of counter-terrorism. These interviews are closed and transcripts of them will not be made available.’
Yuko Narushima
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/please-explain-haneef-mystery-thickens/2008/07/30/1217097296855.html
onimod at 364
Howard’s mob excelled at cutting off oxygen from media folk who did not toe the party line. They were also excellent at providing oxygen to the favoured few. I seem to recall freebie trips (for example on government-paid trips to Iraq), favoured access to newsworthy people, plenty of background briefings, and ‘inside’ scoops. The favoured few are now struggling to get traction because after ten years in clover they actually have to do some work and some thinking. How good they are at making the change can be judged from the anti-gg’s shambolic reporting of the opposition’s climate change response policy development. The reporting is nearly as confused as the reality. The basic problem for the favoured few is that they are still confusing ‘ought’ or ‘maybe’ with ‘is’.
I don’t hold any particular brief for Bolt, in fact the reverse, because of the damage he is doing in dumbing down rational public debate about CC. I appreciate opposition, dissent and informed debate.
Bolt picked early that the libs were doomed with Howard and went public about it. I agree that his bread and butter is a shock jock-type contrarian approach and stirring the pot. It is therefore a bit hard to judge when he is confecting and when not, but I believe that he was genuinely concerned about what was going to happen to the libs under Howard’s leadership and spoke out about it. It is useful to remember the context - apparent invincibility, a vast inertia, overt and covert patterns of media management with a liberal (sic) dose of fear and loathing. In this context, the rest of the Howard media hacks and most in the party room were either too thick or too gutless to do what Bolt did. Perhaps a weak benchmark, but I give him his due.
Sorry for the delay I stepped out for a bit.
Thanks Ruawake
Onimod I do stick by my statement in 365, “People I spoke to mainly said he’d been there long enough and it was time to give someone else a go. If Howard had stepped down voluntarily after APEC and hand the batton to Costello it may (repeat may) have been a different story.”
I acknowledge, the majority of conversation was between mates and work colleagues and that you’re right there may be a little bit more behind their reasoning than they were prepared to tell me in a conversation but I’m only reporting what was mainly said to me, I make no other claims.
I think that State Labor has it right and the Liberals should have learned the lessons of State Labor as soon as a party leader is poison dump him/her and move on this revitalises the party and people are once again re-engaged.
I can’t put it plainer then that.
Boerwar
I agree with 99%, but the idea that he’s doing what he’s doing out of any genuine concern is false.
It’s his job, and I defy anyone with 2 or more brain cells to do it long term; that’s all.
It’d be nice to think that journalistic responsibility correlated with their potential influence.
He was also more than a little late on the scene, and a lot of people had already done the thinking for him.
JoM, a question for you.
Who would you like to see as Lib Leader and why.? Is there anyone on the Coalition benches that can unite the party?
They seemed divided on so many issues.
The ALP has not lost a poll for so long and don’t look look being behind any time soon.
As someone who doesn’t vote conservative I find it hard to really listen to anyone from the opposition benches, I suspect a majority of voters may feel the same.
Red Kerry is skewering Brenda on the 7.30 report, poor sod.
JoM, that just sounds like twaddle. Howard was going to step down a year or two after the election anyway, so if those people who were sick of Howard really wanted Cossie then all they had to do was hang on. They clearly had more on their minds.
although not enamoured of brenda
i mean who would want to lead the fibs anyway
short of johnny’s deadhand engineering some mighty quadruple bypass
the fibs are now entering the last sad stages of the untimely demises of “menzies child”
i’ll be the first to say it
vale fiberals
You’re not wrong! Completely tearing him a new one
doh
should be demise not demises
Brenda making a total goose of himself.
The born to rule mob must be hitting the bottle tonight.
AllBull would just love it.
387 ouch. Nelson nearly lost it.
Sondeo I would like to see Costello lead the party in either the 2010 or 2013 election, which ever one will give him the best chance of becoming PM. Otherwise Malcolm Turnbull. Malcolm Turnbull appears to be a can do guy.
Uniting the party? Depends on how many votes Malcolm wins the next leadership ballot by.
Dario he was going to step down when it was in the best interests for the party then he was going to step down when it best suited him. He lost becasue he shifted the goal posts.
362 Turning worm. I have to disagree - there’s a lot of meanness and spit in his blogs
(and that William, will end my commentary on Bolt - I usually only link to him when he mentions an issue re polls/specific politics - i.e him arguing Nelson should do something in shadow cabinet - I’m not at all interested in discussing his anti-Global warming graphs - at least not on this blog)
394 JoM - but will the next ballot be an “anyone but Brendan” vote? i.e drowning man clutching at serpants time.
I’d say Turnbull will be expected to produce good polls quickly. There wouldn’t be a lot of love for him to fall back on in the party room.
BETTING odds on former federal treasurer Peter Costello taking over the Liberal leadership for the next election have narrowed sharply in recent days as Brendan Nelson struggles with climate change policy.
However, Sportingbet Australia says opposition treasury spokesman Malcolm Turnbull remains favourite to lead the coalition, albeit with odds widening slightly to $1.75 from $1.60.
Mr Costello is returning $2.50, in from $3.50.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24102570-12377,00.html
What odds that Brenda blows out due to his gaining a new end to his alimentary canal on the 7.30 report.
Grog excellent point, it may well be.
I don’t know why the Brendan continues on about CC and the ETS he should just palm off the question as Kevin used to do when opposition leader. Brendan should be saying we’ll see what more the government has to say before we make any judgeents.
Kevin what ever happened to putting downward pressure on prices: http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24101194-5017313,00.html
Where is whinging Wendy when you need her?
Kerry should have asked Brenda who is he to claim that Rudd will get it wrong in 2010 where he himself has no plan, no direction, no idea about CC and is a sceptic?
And on was basis can he justify his claim that the PM will get it wrong if implemented in 2010?
Brenda is a total laughing stock. Fullbull is an amateur. Cossie is all puff no smoke. I say recruit Latham for the Liberal Party. He could do a much better job.
JoM… who know what prices would be unless Kevin Rudd had put downward pressure onthem? I’d say they’d be much higher by now.
“Prices will always be not quite as high under a Rudd government”
On Brendan… my sister felt sorry for him. Steely-souled me didn’t bat an eyelid. The more this fraud of a man cops it, the better, as far as I’m concerned.
He chose his own path, he made his own bed, let him walk along/lie in it.
The funny bit was that not only has Brendan been trying to placate and say “Yes” to everyone in his own party, but tonight he was desperately trying to please Kezza. Jeeeeezzzzus! How desperate can you get?
Get RID of this idiot and let’s have some serious debate in our country about things that really matter. It’s embarrassing having to watch him.
edit before submit “what basis”
399 JoM
Yep it’s a no brainer, Nelson should’ve killed the issue dead.. wait to see how the Govt handles the implementation, and then come in with the “I think we need to rethink this folks” if it looks to be going bad.
He obvisouly thought he collected on the petrol rebate bet, and so he when double or nothing (and forgot to check the odds).
We live in a country with a market economy, are you suggesting that all prices should be fixed like in communism?
P’raps Brendon should re-consider being a G.P.. He sure as hell ain’t no politician. His performance tonight on the 7.30 Report was possibly the worst I’ve seen in a good long time. How does he sleep?
Meanwhile, the treatment of asylum seekers is changed to a more humane system, Rudd’s been on the phone till the wee hours trying to rescue DOHA, and a new High Court Judge is appointed - just getting on with it, resolutely.
BTW, for the first time in my life, I went and had a look at the blog of the person who shall not be named, just out of sheer curiosity. Reminded me of group treatment for the delusional - not recommended.
Grog at 393
Nearly? The do nothing careerists have come up with ‘principles’ instead of a policy. They think it means that they don’t actually have to say or do anything positive or definite while giving them a sniping platform. They think it means they can trim sails as required by the populist winds.
More likely it means that any slight CC credibility they had has gone. They should just have said that they would look at Rudd’s proposition once the details were on the table and once all relevant information had been provided. This is reasonable. They had plenty of time. The very silly thing is that after all the faffing around they appear to be practically on the same page as Rudd anyway, except for anything you can do we can do better.
Blindeye’s repetitious 7.30 Report ‘We’ll get it right’ begs the question of ‘Get what right?’ Bruffy’s gone huffy. Blindeye’s a goner. Williwillinot is waiting for Godot. Turnbullatagate must be pawing the ground.
The cesspit roils.
Centre - I have thought for sometime that the next liberal PM is probably not yet in the parliament. Looks more and more the case with each passing day.
Maybe the lib lord mayor of Brisbane will switch…..
ALL the possible candidates who are current MP’s have baggage of varying degrees.
Well Kerry! Well Kerry! Well Kerry!
407
dave Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Centre - I have thought for sometime that the next liberal PM is probably not yet in the parliament.
Has he been born yet ?
Dave, how about Phillip Ruddock? Apparently we have him to thank for Rudd changing the policy of locking up children in detention centres.
Thank you Al
Unfortunately sometimes the response here are no different to the responses on Bolt’s blog.
406 Boerwar…. well I was trying to be kind.
Mark Riley on Sunrise this morning (not usually how you want to start a serious point) said there’s not usally much sympathy for politicians, and none when the problems are all self inflicted.
Nelson must be praying for the Olympics to hurry up and start so we’ll all think about somethig else for 2 weeks.
If i was to give Sir Kevin some Barbarian advise , i’d say either lets NOT knock Brenda down too much , cause we reely do to want to face him in 2010 , or if we reckon Horatio is a lame duck , then lets kill him off quick so we allow enough time to demolish th next Liberal’s credibility Kindness is needed
Harry @ 405,
I’m not convinced Brendan does sleep. Those bags under his eyes are getting more and more pronounced.
His performance on 7:30 report was abysmal! He obviously has no clue about the issues surrounding climate change. And the Libs still haven’t learned what really cost them the last election: not listening to the public. The majority of Australians are all for an ETS, even if we do it before all the other countries. And yet they’re continuing on their merry head-in-the-sand way.
Oh well. Thanks Brendan for handing victory to Labor at the next federal election.
413 ron - agreed - remember the lesson of the Downer months
No, it was VERY funny. It’s a new genre - sit down comedy.
Ahhh… The Downer Months. Those were the days.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrFbtckAFyA
The Downer Family - Australian Dynasties
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUoADEsE4ZU&NR=1
Ok, Nelson goes, Turnbull takes over - what will be the newspoll bump?
53-47? 52-48?
Pref PM will he get close to 30%?
I think so. Currently Rudd has all the small l Liberals supporting him, Turnbull will peel some of those off.
The problem is, then the Right of the Liberals will be upset that Nelson got rolled, and will just create constant instability, which means eventually Turnbull will be in the same position that Nelson is now.
Of course if I was to give th liberals my barbarian advise , admittedly not supposedly as sophisticated as all dems politcal ‘experts’ , why would just ask one queston to th Party room:
guys yous hav 6 Brenda CC policys out there in July as we speak , and they ALL relate to post 2010 , ie after th 2010 electon , so why ar you hurting & arguing about which one when th electon is in 2010 , and after 2010 you can change it to whatever you want , it being non core
Tonight while being interviewed on the 7.30 report I felt sorry for Brendan Nelson. Kerry O’Brien nailed him but didn’t let him complete an answer. Nelson showed good grace to keep his cool but I suspect tonight has finished him as opposition leader. He was hopeless.
He stands for nothing and has no consistent ideological position. Nelson is trapped, a moderate who inherently believes in Labor values (look at his past) but who is propped up by the right wing of the Liberal party that despises Turnbull.
Brendan Nelson is a fundamentally decent man who is an inept leader of the opposition. He needs to be politically euthanised.
I don’t think Nelson is fundamentally decent at all. Maybe he was once, but not any more.
He’s just a chameleon, changing his colors every five minutes… literally. Good ridance to him. He’s now getting in the way of good governance. Even the Libs hate him.
Piers Akerman grew up in a leftist family, may have been a lefty himself when younger (not sure on that one) - and look at him now!
Tough call. Just because a person changes their policy position doesn’t mean they’re not decent.
I don’t know Nelson. I judge by gut feel and my instinct. I reckon he’s a good person but he’s a terrible politician.
Rudd attacks Nelson with a wet lettuce while Swan & co have been very easy on him. The last thing the ALP wants is a new opposition leader.
Showson @ 419
Agree. One of the really nasty things about being in opposition is that there are almost no lollies to hand out, no toys in the sandpit, there is nothing real to do, and there are very few options for smacking a recalcitrant on the botty. All a leader has is promises, and pollies know what that means. So, strange things happen.
The first is that to the pollies it looks like the words don’t really matter and then the pollies start to behave as if that is true. It becomes a self-fulfilling idea. Right now, who cares what we (the opposition) say about CC because we are not going to get to apply it, the Government is. The second thing is that the polly focus narrows down to what is happening inside the party - because it is the only place they can have an impact. The big egos have to get some sort of win somewhere. The folk at the extremes have a field day because they have nothing to lose and they think they can make ‘real’ gains within the party by getting extremist positions on the table.
From the outside it looks weird. Up close and dirty it must make some strange sort of sense. How else to explain the self-destructive behaviour of so many oppositions of all ilks? This opposition started reasonably well for an opposition, I suspect because it managed to maintain some discipline left over from their potty training days under Howard. I don’t believe the rump members of the ex-Iemma Government will do as well when they are first in opposition. The opposition discipline is now under severe stress because Blindeye has simply not grown in the job. Strange behaviour is on the way.
The future for climate change denialists. Nature isn’t going to stop just because they don’t believe.
425 Boerwar
Nice insight.
The pendulum has certainly started swinging.
It’s going to take a strongman to slow it’s momentum.
It is good to see one union body come out against the salary cap and in favour of Sonny Bill.
The salary cap is outright communism but big business wouldn’t care if it suits them. They would have restraint of trade and monopolies in an instant if they could.
That’s what we would get if we supported “small government” conservative ideology. No doubt, Labor are more aligned with, level playing field, fair referree (non superleague), capitalism than Liberal.
Oh, come on!
Nelson is the Ted Bundy of policy and allegience switchers. It’s catching up with him, finally, at last. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bloke.
The man stands for nothing except himself… and when you think how much of a stuff-up he’s made even of doing that, he’s still a complete fool.
Nelson is an empty shell and a positive danger to rational debate. Total spin. Total bull$hit. Total loser.
I don’t care if Labor wants him in the saddle because he’s a useful idiot. Get rid of him Libs, and do us all a favour. It’s painful to watch.
Te interesting thing will be how Rudd responds to Turnbull - he’ll have to play him different than he did Nelson (or would’ve Costello).
Obviously the ALPwould already be comming up with a strategy
http://austrolabe.com/2007/11/29/the-virtues-of-being-prepared/
but it will be good to see how Rudd and the ALP cope with a bounce for Turnbull - panic or comon sense.
If Turnbull takes the job I can see Labor reigniting the Republic debate to wedge him. He will already be on thin ice, hated as he is by many of the Liberal Right.
319
William Bowe Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
JOM @ #316: Indeed, Andrew Bolt has been mentioned on this thread nearly twice as often as Kevin Rudd. If anyone cares what I think, I’m getting a bit bloody sick of hearing about him.
How are they hanging Billy?
When the Krodent ‘calm, temperate and responsible’ letterbox & TV mania kicks in do you think the tone will turn?
I do.:)
Boerwar
#425
There ar many do’s and don’t’s when you go into opposition , but Nelson made the most basic within a week of becoming leader by a small majoritey He did not either stand up as Leader & make a CC stand on a CC policy he either 100% beleived in or on which he beleived was ’saleable to win an electon , thereby forsing th Party either to immediately dump him (imposible so early) or stand behind him
Instead like a poor leader , he has flip floped with th priority of trying to sustain & prop up his leadership , not realising that course is ultimately fatal Discipline starts at th top
Hollowmen was pretty good tonight
Yeah not bad James J - thought last week’s better but.
charles 426 Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
The future for climate change denialists
Thanks for that Canadian link Charles of a huge glacial sheet dropping off in last week I read today of th of Glacier National Park glaciers in US Rockies now at 1/3 of there 1850 size
More frightening was Fox & Franz Josf glaciers in NZ being a full 2.5 kilometres shorter than they were 100 years ago !
Didn’t see 7.30 Report , sounds like Brenda did poorly ?
charles @ 426 -
The future for climate change denialists.
That climate cooling they’re always on about sure does work in funny ways, don’t it?
If there is no salary cap the successful teams will get all the best players, and the unsuccessful teams will get the poor players. The unsuccessful teams will lose more games, and eventually go bankrupt, or require huge cross subsidies from the successful teams.
No sympathy from me for that inept fool Nelson!
He tried to curry favour with the extreme right of the Liberal Party, it has blown up in his face!
Tonight’s 7.30 Report was the funniest thing I have seen on TV all week, maybe all year!
438 ShowsOn. Yep, the salary cap essential or it’ll become like the English Premier League where every season everyone knows only 1 or 4 teams can possibly win.
I meant 1 out of 4 teams
And now Mike’s bother is getting it on Lateline.