The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead back up to 57-43 after two fortnights at 55-45. No figures yet provided to back up its headline “Costello wanted as leader”. Hat tip yet again to James J.
UPDATE: Graphic here. It shows Peter Costello’s rating as preferred Liberal leader up to 41 per cent from 23 per cent in April (wrongly labelled in the graphic as April 2007), Brendan Nelson up from 15 per cent to 18 per cent and Malcolm Turnbull down from 25 per cent to 24 per cent – bearing in mind that 19 per cent has been freed up because Julie Bishop and Tony Abbott were not included in the question this time.
UPDATE 2 (31/7/08): Further attitudinal polling, including the finding that the Prime Minister is 3 per cent less experienced than he was six months ago.
UPDATE 3: Suggested Newspoll question format for next time: Is Rudd experienced? Has he ever been experienced?
1,444 Comments
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Bravo GB 996
That sums it up in a nutshell. The fundamental difference between the “modern” Labor position and any true commitment to public policy.
You miss one thing – leaders lead and advocate for policies and persuade the public to a point of view.
In the case of modern Labor too many assume the electorate is inherently conservative and only a “pale echo” approach is possible.
Yes Keating lost in 96 but he was also principally responsible for the 13 years before that. Not a bad record all in all.
Amigo FINNS
#997
“Amigo Ronnie, did you mention oil & power-hungry d!ckheads? ”
yep spot on , you ar so much more precise than I
We in ‘oz’ believe in a pollie who will try to do something about CC Alot of ‘oz’ bloggers here may wonder why we call th Messiah Obama Mr Oiliness with words & CC
Good example, los angeles times today:
“Major Obama shift on offshore drilling; some might be O.K.
Another sudden switch and another major slide toward the center by Democratic Sen. Barack Obama.
He told a Florida newspaper today he is NOT against ALL offshore drilling for new oil resources.
Switching from his PREVIOUS BLANKET opposition to expanded offshore drilling, Obama tells the Palm Beach Post he could get behind a compromise with Republicans and oil companies to avoid a gridlock over energy policy.
The freshman Illinois senator (Obama) and presidential nominee-to-be added: “If, in order to get that passed, we have to compromise in terms of a careful, well thought-out drilling strategy that was carefully circumscribed to avoid significant environmental damage — I don’t want to be so rigid that we can’t get something done.”
So much for CC & environment , always flip flops on every issue
I have replied to your 1000 posting ESJ but for some strange reason I’m being moderated. I have no idea why.
I am sure Ruddster would be the first to congratulate Obama on his decision to support offshore oil drilling, seeing as Ruddster himself has approved a massive expansion of exploration for oily fields in Oz’s economic zone. I’m not sure how people can suggest that offshore oily drills is incompatible with tackling CC as Ruddster would never approve exploration if it meant further CC, I’m sure.
Obama ‘Switching from his PREVIOUS BLANKET opposition to expanded offshore drilling’
thats a flip flop in anyones language By th way , there was a CC & environment reason for his FORMER stanse , now conveniently ditched
Sir Kevin did ratify Kyoto , th US man won’t even to commit to do so
Sir Kevin does not flip flop , he & Penny ar already into a Green paper
ESJ
1000
“The fundamental difference between the “modern” Labor position and any true commitment to public policy.”
would not it be beter to see what is in th Whiite Paper A Green paper was out within 8 months after a prior Garnaut Report also done in that time
flip, flop goes the us man. scribble, scribble goes the tin tin. glug, glug goes the bowser. puff, puff goes the pipe, pipe.
Fair point ron 1005 – the white paper may be a sign of redemption for this lot.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Turning worm
#1006
replying to my #1004
An inconvenient truth
ESJ
#1007
hoping it will map a course that is econamicaly & CC prudent , actualy believe solar geothermals etc will get a run , maybe even rons solar farms
New Galaxy Poll for Queensland. It’s better for Labor but I still don’t trust Galaxy.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24117512-952,00.html
Gary
with good reason , and 800 people isn’t big
“Primary support for the Bligh Government is 44 per cent, up one percentage point from a pre-merger poll conducted by Galaxy in June. Support for the new LNP is 40 per cent – a drop from 42 per cent in the June poll.”
However even at 42% , th LNP could never get to 50% 2PP , so thats encouragng , better than other way around
Some of you seem to be getting climate and weather mixed up. A hot day in the Canadian artic does not prove anything. GISS global temps are just 0.2C above baseline long term averages across the planet. (And Goddart data tends to be a lot warmer than other sites that are measuring global temp data.) Hadley for instance is showing an temp average below baseline averages.
If you want a laugh check this out.
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/al_gore_places_infant_son_in
Thankyou Diogenes @ 979…Mr Fisk gives it a wisk etc…
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-new-actor-on-the-same-old-stage-883270.html
As for Rudd & Potato Head re Haneef…
New post up on the Galaxy poll.
The latest worry for the deniers:
Arctic ice continues to thin
* 02 August 2008
* NewScientist.com news service
SANTA is skating on very thin ice. In 2007 the sea ice at the North Pole was at its thinnest since records began.
Christian Haas of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, Germany, and his team estimated the thickness of late summer ice at the North Pole in 2001, 2004 and 2007. They found that the ice was on average 1.3 metres thick at the end of the summer in 2007. By contrast, its depth was 2.3 metres in 2001 and 2.6 metres in 2004.
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19926673.400-arctic-ice-continues-to-thin.html?feedId=online-news_rss20
China is not totally lost on this:
Funny that the right wing loonies within the LNP think they are right whilst China takes it all seriously.
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn14455-could-china-lead-the-green-revolution.html?feedId=online-news_rss20
Frank Calabrese @ 977
I don’t often agree with the poisoned dwarf but I believe he has identified some talent in Hunt (and, in passing, Wong). Hunt is much smarter than most of his colleagues, works much, much harder than most of colleagues, and is slightly wetter than most of his colleagues. Unlike most of them, he actually thinks in terms of policy as well as politics. He is reasonably baggage free. He works the punters well but doesn’t have to worry too much about his seat margin. His daddy was a minister in some Victorian government or other. He is building up a bank of favours with his colleagues and, of the current opposition class, would have to be counted as one of those most likely to succeed, if the neanderthal crusties in the opposition ever give him a chance. His main problem is probably the old gravitas/image: He looks like a boy, which he exacerbates with a certain boyish enthusiasm. From time to time he jumps early to the conclusion. The baton is rattling away in his knapsack, itching to get out. Given his youth, he will probably not be a complete geriatric by the time his mob next get into power. He would be worth a punt on being PM by about 2025.
Bolt on Insiders is running as hard as you can on Costello
Harry @ 980
It’s funny the way social workers are stereotyped as being champions of the downtrodden and weak. As you say, they also have the reputation of being rottweilers when they take neglected kids away.
I was at seminar with a social worker in our group. Each person had to say how their profession was unfairly stereotyped. The doctors said that they weren’t greedy and did it for the patients blah, blah.
The social worker said that she hated never being able to say anything slightly judgemental without someone telling her that a social worker can’t say things like that. She said she sometimes had the overwhelming urge to yell out “I hate blacks” just to kill off the stereotype.
Just Me and ShowsOn
Janet has quite a lot of legal experience according to Wiki. Her inability to form a cogent argument and complete lack of understanding of the law and society must have led to her being ditched from her profession, hence her bitterness towards those who have been a success and become judges.
Old news Thomas Paine, for this year with just a few weeks left in their summer we will see far less melt than last year. It is interesting that the Antartic has not suffered the same melt issues as the Artic.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
I though Malcolm Farr was hilarious repeatedly calling Andrew Bolt “Kerry”.
The Nameless One thinks he’s on a roll, a twofer: CC denialism and Costello.
Cassidy seems to have no authority over his ramblings. I’m wondering if he’s been told to leave he-who-shall-remain-nameless alone?
It seems the inmates over on Gilligans Island are resorting to downright lies to criticise those who prefer not to play on their site of mediocrity. Megan claims on the latest string (148) that I have supported KR and his doom and despair scenarios. I dare them to show one instance of this.
Of course, truthfulness or accuracy is not one of their long suits.
BB- with JA and Keef still on the board it would hardly be surpriing if the Uber Troll is given immunity.
Surely Kevin The Saviour can do something to get rid of them???????
The Mayo by-election looks fascinating. Labor is not going to run a candidate. The Lib preselection went sour and Bob Day, who is a cashed up businessman, lost and is now going to run as the FF candidate in Mayo. The Greens have polled well in Mayo (11% in 2007). The wildcard is Brian Deegan who ran in 2004 and got 16% of the vote. He is likely to run.
Depending on the preferences of the Greens and FF, which I guess will go to Deegan, there could be a silly chance of an upset.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24119440-2682,00.html
And some straight-talk about Costello, finally, from Chateau Murdoch, in today’s Tele editorial:
Howard wasn’t on the backbench before he became leader in 1995, was he?
GG, please don’t come on here and leave completely off-topic comments about things that have been said on other websites.
There’s something hilarious about Bob Day joining Family First. To Stephen Fielding’s credit, he was anti-WorkChoices, whereas Bob Day – along with Peter Costello – is a founding member of the H.R. Nichols society. He didn’t think WorkChoices went far enough. Even in the Hewson years Bob Day suggested that people under 17 years of age should be paid $2 an hour.
Does anyone think Bob Day would’ve complained about the pre-selection process if he was pre-selected?
Sometimes you’re better just to go with your first instinct.
Costello’s first instinct last November was to accept the fact that he’d never be PM, get a job that was easier or more lucrative (or both), and have more time with Tanya. Even if some people (like most PBers) interpreted that as a selfish dummy-spit, that would not really be his problem.
Although I reckon he’d have to be the Liberals’ least worst option for the next election, from a personal perspective he’d probably have been best off to stick with Plan A.
Oh no, Abbott sees his chances slipping away – “Costello Welcome [to front bench] but not as leader” http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24120732-29277,00.html
Dyno- maybe no one else wanted him, and he has to reconsider politics just to keep the kiddies in socks and undies
Jen that’s one of your dumber posts even for you.
Yeah, I think he was.
The Tele editorial also points out that Costello was Howard’s superior in the Libs when he dropped his daks and took one for the party from Howard. Talk about gullible! The Deputy leader, Leader almost-designate, got spooked by Howard The Nobody!
I get the feeling that Cozzie has a fear of failure, coupled with a fear of being at the place where the buck stops. He’s always had someone above him to take the rap if things go wrong (and to take the glory when they don’t, unfortunately). He’s never gone solo, has always had the instructor sitting next to him to take the controls if he funks out.
I’d predict there’ll be a surge of support for the Libs, or at least for the leader of the Libs, if Cozzie took over, followed by a long decline over the next few months as people realise that “dominating” Question Time is entirely dependent upon having a tame Speaker to, once again, to pull rank against the other side of the House on Cozzie’s behalf.
Milne’s article in today’s Tele did make a good point (for once): that Hunt sees an opening in the form of the alternative energy debate for the Libs. I for one agree that this is a glaring hole in Labor’s strategy, which seems instead to be based on skin-of-the-teeth rescue from the gloom and doom pervading people’s view of the forseeable future. Milne blithely repeats the mantra on Garret’s “failure” on solar panel rebates, even though we know now there’s evidence that applications for the rebate have increased, rather than diminished. The perception is that Labor has sold off solar without anything to replace it and, I suspect, no amount of linking to obscure articles by bloggers here, or curt press releases by the government seeking to prove otherwise will help.
Cotello’s best last hope is to sell the prospect of sunshine to come. If nothing else (and if it works) it will put some confidence back into the minds of the voters, already beaten to a pulp by a barrage of bad news – about everything, seemingly – that we hear on the news every day. Rudd should watch out there. Impending misery focuses the punters’ minds, but prospering in the final run gets them enthusiastiic regarding actually doing something about it.
I keep thinking of that scene from The African Queen where Bogart and Hepburn are grimly pulling the boat through a swamp, being eaten alive by leeches and mosquitos, dying of thirst for their troubles. The camera rises to above the swamp and we see that our hero and heroine are but a hundred metres or so from the lake, and salvation. ye thtey give up and are only saved by a rain storm that floats them over the reeds an onto the lake’s surface. Whoever has the nouse to take the camera off the tripod and lift it above the swamp, as it applies to Australia’s own future, will profit from the exercise greatly.
Hunt is already on the job, trying to convince his colleagues that, “It’s the future, stupid!” Hunt is saying that whether we believe in Climate Change or not, the future can be sold as rosy. This gets everyone on side on the party room, believers and deniers alike, and could give them and a possible Costello leadership, something to run with against Labor.
Meantime, the process wqorkers of Rudd’s cabninet try too hard to look like economic consrvatives, even economic Drys. In my opinion they are fight yesterday’s war. They won the election. Time for new tactics before the other mob get them first.
Pretty sure JWH was still a frontbencher when drafted in early 1995. For example, see here:
http://www.nma.gov.au/education/school_resources/websites_and_interactives/primeministers/john_howard/
One of the points about Howard was he never gave up (let’s hope for the Liberals’ sake that he has finally done so now!).
Jen @ 1033,
He could always make decent money at the Bar.
The hours wouldn’t be short, though.
1027 – yep BB, he’s already had the leadership given to him two times on a silver platter – 95 and last Nov. He declined both times.
That they feel the need to go to him now, suggests they are REALLY struggling.
I still think he’s more interested in selling his book.
How could a prospective leader not have turned up to the party meeting last week?
He was definately on the front becnh – check the the vision when he is going against Downer right at the end Howard get’s up to do a point of order:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAAf9nSd3ig
and while you’re there have another look at the low altitude flier clip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaLLP4sc_6Q&feature=related
Dyno- I remeber hearing after teh election that Tip didn’t get the offers he was expecting to come rolling in. Wasn’t there talk of the World Bank at one stage?
I believe he was Shadow Minister for Industrial Relations (now called Workplace Relations for some reason).
What would the shadow bench be under Costello?
Could you imagine Pete and Malcolm smiling together side by side. tee hee.
So much love to go around.
Grog-
it would be Toast.
Bring it on.
I agree Jen – Turnbull is a much trickier proposition – no baggage, looks new, looks like a leader, seems moderate, so swinging voters won’t fear him.
Costello is a quick and desperate fix – the Libs need to remember the eleciton is 2 1/2 years off. Thats a long time for the lazy Tip to stay interested.
Turnbull has baggage, though.
No easy answers for the Libs at the moment.
Dyno-
If they don’t find someone soon they will become as relevant as One Nation.
hey! – there’s a thought… I’m pretty sure Pauline is looking for a party to lead, and who better to replace JWH without changing a thing.
One of the lines about Costello that is bounced around a lot is he is a great parliamentary performer. The same thing is said about Keating. Except that both were never headline acts until they were in Government. Performance in opposition is a different story, you not supposed to rant as much when you ask questions as when you answer them.
Among the times he could have had the leadership, you could included 1994 when they made Downer leader and last September after the APEC non-showdown.
A lot of nonsense has been spouted regarding Costello and his future (and I don’t discount my contribution to this nonsense). On reflection, he has simply taken a sabbatical during 2008 in order to ask himself the questions about whether he intends to take the next step in politics or move on to a different career outside. I believe that 12 years as Treasurer entitled him to that time to decide.
No doubt family considerations are a huge issue. Having jobbed out the raising of his children to his wife, Mrs Costello has now established her own separate career with the ANZ Bank. Does anyone consider the family implications of asking Mrs Costello to forgo her carreer again, so that Peter can re-establish himself outside Parliament?
In this context the overseas jobs were never a chance. The alternatives were a juicy sinecure in Australia or a return to the Bench.
Partisan politics in Australia tends to label as “idiot” anyone who supports the opposite side. It is all pretty childish really. AS a Labor supporter, I would like to see Costello assume the leadership and hopefully bring some policy discussion to the fore. The populist nonsense spouted by Nelson and Co is pathetic and the Australian community deserves more from their elected Opposition.
Costello may not be the answer long term, but at least we’d get the question of his courage and competency addressed.
On Bob Day
Ben Schneiders, The Age, 17 November 2007
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/liberals-in-workplace-worry/2007/11/16/1194766965937.html
This millionaire advocates below-minimum pay for apprentices!
Remind me why I will never vote Liberal …
The media love Costello. They loved his parliamentary performances. I’m yet to be convinced the voters enjoyed them as much.
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