The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead back up to 57-43 after two fortnights at 55-45. No figures yet provided to back up its headline “Costello wanted as leader”. Hat tip yet again to James J.
UPDATE: Graphic here. It shows Peter Costello’s rating as preferred Liberal leader up to 41 per cent from 23 per cent in April (wrongly labelled in the graphic as April 2007), Brendan Nelson up from 15 per cent to 18 per cent and Malcolm Turnbull down from 25 per cent to 24 per cent – bearing in mind that 19 per cent has been freed up because Julie Bishop and Tony Abbott were not included in the question this time.
UPDATE 2 (31/7/08): Further attitudinal polling, including the finding that the Prime Minister is 3 per cent less experienced than he was six months ago.
UPDATE 3: Suggested Newspoll question format for next time: Is Rudd experienced? Has he ever been experienced?
1,444 Comments
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1100 TF, yep saw that as well. How sad must it to be gushing about a bloke who you have spent a decade trying to keep out of the leadership.
Don’t really care where Costello is leader – just as long as he doesn’t give his long standing, snivelling little side-kick Pyne a good shadow portfolio.
1102 Triffid
Well as he has about 2 friends in the party (Pyne and Brandis) I guess he’ll have to.
Grog @ 1103
Yes, its inevitable.
I just hope Pyne has another try explaining that he “has a hide like a rhinosaurous”
Has anyone else noticed that whenever Pyne mentions Brandis in the House of Representatives, he always calls him “Senator Brandis, S.C.”?
Gaff Hooked!
GG@1024,
Did I inadvertently set the curtains alight?
It was a lighthearted comment regarding Eddie’s 874 comment where he said “…KR was right” ! Credit where credit is due.
No offense intended,and it certainly wasn’t aimed at you.
1102 – Pyne is the type of friend that does more harm than good. Also I wouldn’t ask him for racing tips as he has been backing the wrong horse for two long.
I am? I did?
Gaffhook
#1107
Take your childish post of #1107 back to Gilligans With your false claims
And as “for discussion here about whether we ARE having a recession or not”
No one has aserted that either , hell we hav not even had one quarter of negative growth !
Th fact is US financial journals hav predicted th US may go down that path for 12 months , I also read them so I knew Kirri showy was simply also reading them then cutting & pasting them as if he wrote & predicted it Such kids stuff
This is reality ‘oz’ politcs & we ar simply heading for an economic downturn , that Reserve plan will be a ’soft landing’
I know it’s a bit pedantic but I’m disturbed by our host’s host. Their spelling doesn’t inspire confidence. If you look at the top of the PB homepage you can see their banner is:
Unlimited-space.com
Breaking the mold
It does conjure up some weird images.
Oops
On mature reflection, in the US they seem to use “mold” for both the fungus and shape.
God I hate being wrong!
If the banks don’t pass on interest rate cuts when they do happen maybe the Reserve Bank should allow mortgagees to move to it? That should make the banks see sense!
the yanks don’t use so many supuerfluous ‘u’s as we do
GG, I’ve just deleted your latest off-topic comment related to goings-on at Another Place. If you’re going to boycott commenting on another site (while still continuing to visit it – that I find particularly hard to understand), you deal yourself out of being able to respond to things being said there. You can’t have it both ways.
I know it’s a nice idea to think that as existing customers of the banks than we should be the first in line for relief, but in the open market where confidence and value is determined by the shareholders, they’re far more likely to think of profit and new customers before the existing ones.
Money trumps loyalty every time.
OK, guys, enough talk. Time to go for the messiah. So, on the record, what does the messiah have to offer? There were some positives which should be acknowledged. Timor L’este. Guns. Low unemployment. Low inflation. Low interest rates for most of his tenure. Growing economy also. How much was the messiah and how much others is open to question. But my view is that a messiah should mostly be without blemish or baggage. What does this messiah bring with him?
Getting into a stupid murderous and immoral war in Iraq, thereby creating about 2 million external and 2 million internal refugees and killing and injuring a great many others plus putting us at greater risk of terrorism. Getting absolutely wrong the reasons for going in and then the reasons for staying. Getting into a stupid, murderous and immoral war in Afghanistan. Supporting inhumane mandatory detention. Generating rising interest rates towards the end of his tenure. Pissing away the minerals boom and the best terms of trade we have ever had for most of our exports. Doing nothing for 11 years on CC. Not noticing AWB’s shenanigans. Either not knowing or not doing anything about Haneef and various other personalised bastardisations, including the filthy public lying about children overboard perpetrated while he was in Cabinet. Not a peep. Superannuation changes that have gifted fortunes to the rich and which are absolutely unsustainable for the public purse. Arguing that WorkChoices was not tough enough. Introducing a baby bonus for a continent which in terms of accelerating biodiversity loss is manifestly not being run on a sustainable basis. A whole generation of uni students with the HECs millstone around their necks. In terms of character, it is arguable that he has significant flaws: he is lazy, weak, vacillating and has got no cojones.
If this is the best messiah they can turn to, what does it say about the b team?
BTW is Gilligan’s Island another blog site? If so, could somebody please tell me what the link is?
William,
With the utmost of respect, the other site is connected to this site through your colourful link on the site, so there is a direct physical connection. I have not posted there simply because I do not trust the operators of the site to provide a fair and reasonable go, I am expected to post personal details that they may or may not choose to release to others, their site is dominated by a bunch of intellectual deviants and really, if it is not “Go Obama” there is no discussion.
You have basically jobbed out the credibility of Poll Bludger to these misfits and it is you who are trying to have it both ways.
I recommend you cut them off and start again.
What personal details do they require you to post, and can you give me a specific example of when they have ever failed to provide you with a fair or reasonable go?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Principle
So somebody did use Peter Costello as a case study and came to a conclusion that Cossie has reached his level of competence at being a treasurer and will reach his Level of Incompetence as the opposition leader.
Another person who has reached his Peter Principle is obviously Gordon Brown:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2481215/Gordon-Browns-personal-popularity-hits-historic-low-poll-shows.html
Cossie will suffer the same fate as Gordon Brown. You gotta know your limitation.
Fiins,
How many eggs?
William,
To register with any site, you need to inject personal email details. I never do that to sites that I do not trust.
The latest farrago of lies which you have conveniently left on site while deleting my response.
My point is you have allowed the brand of Poll Bludger to be diminished by a lack of care.
Finns,
Perhaps Costello does know his limitations?
As I said earlier today (well not quite in as many words), if I was his “life coach” (sorry for going all Californian) I’d tell him to quit. Now.
Longest-serving Treasurer, during a prolonged economic boom, is a reasonable legacy. Probably better than he’ll end up with if he becomes leader.
From the Liberal Party’s viewpoint, he’s probably the least worst option, though.
William ,
Re GG’s comments and Gilligan’s Island -
Arent you devaluing your brand with the link, in the words of Engelbert Humpeldinck isnt it time to release them and let them grow, in other words privatise Gilligans Island, if its efficient it will survive on its own.
#1124 GG – more importantly the IP which is more personal than the email.
My 2c worth.
William, you are the publisher and do not engage in the hurly burly of the debate. So basically, you are an independent umpire of the site.
Whereas on the other site, there is no publisher who is an independent umpire. I agree with GG that [if it is not “Go Obama” there is no discussion]. That’s the reason I do not post there, despite invitation from jen.
The Liberals need to figure out what they stand for, what philosophy holds them together as a party, what values are important and non negotiable.
Then they delevolop policies based on these principles. It does not matter if Humphrey B. Bear is leader, until they get the basics right they are toast.
There infatuation with a “leader” to lead them out of the wilderness is a fantasy, do the hard work and renew is the answer. Are they capable? At the moment no, but they should be thinking about winning not how to avoid loosing.
I don’t think an email address counts as a “personal detail” in this day and age. A large proportion of the commenters on this site just make something up. I take it the “farrago of lies” refers to Gaffhook’s comment – I have to concede that’s a reasonable point, so I’ve deleted that too.
Finns, GG and ESJ
You are all big boys. You don’t need an “independent umpire”. Heaven knows you are all more than capable of standing up for yourselves. William almost never intervened on the US thread anyway. He went away for a week and we didn’t even notice!
William,
What about the ones that are genuine? I agree, I have sometimes thought about doing exactly what you suggest but thought that was not an ethical thing to do (which obviously begs the question about the monniker but that is anothere issue).
If there was no connection to the US site via Poll Bludger I would not link.
Let them find their own way.
Diogenes,
That is exactly the problem with the new site.
Diog, would you give blood to the Blood Bank if Dracula was in charge?
If someone can provide me with a real-world example of wrongdoing by the operators of the other site, I’ll disassociate myself from it and tell them to stop using the name. Until then, I don’t see what harm they’re doing.
Who gives a toss about some other site? Just GO AWAY.
Okay, we’ve all said our piece now. It’s my brand and I’ll damage it if I want to. Now back on topic, please.
He also sang about lesbian seagulls.
They define themselves in the negative; they are generally against whatever Labor supports. The charter of my uni’s Liberal club explained this in the opening statement of their charter, “The Liberal students association was founded to oppose the university’s Labor club”. Two pages later they explained they were for liberty (is Labor against liberty?) and that Australia is a “Christian Nation”.
William,
Cheers.
Shows On,
Engelbert Humpeldink wrote Hansel and Gretel, so unless you have a variation on Ginger Bread houses crashing because of the US housing disaster, WTF are you talking about.
Finns
Any expert comment on what the Ruddster should do about the Beijing OC reneging on their promise to open up the internet? I gather a few sites have now been unlocked like Amnesty and the BBC but most haven’t.
Boycott the opening ceremony? Protest while over there publicly or privately? China has shown total contempt for it’s promised re human rights.
The lying and misinformation industry – seems there are a number in Australia fooled by them, but looking at the last poll most Australians were a little more intelligent and able to see through the BS and denialist campaign.
Wonder how many in the LNP are victims of the misinformation campaign and are perpetrators.
“I hear ‘reason’, I see lies”
#23 July 2008
# NewScientist.com news service
# Sociologist David Miller
“The PR industry today prefers to be invisible, particularly when its task is to fend off the consequences of actual science. When the desired message is likely to be treated with scepticism if given openly by a corporation or politician, it must be put in the mouth of someone seemingly disinterested. What appears more disinterested than a dissenting view from a scientist? When the interested party needs an even greater distance between them and their message, the PR industry sets up “third party” front groups.
Both tactics are clearly documented in the battle to protect the tobacco industry. We see the same strategy of publicising doubts – enough to prevent political action, or merely to delay it until a return has been made on investments – in today’s strategic use of science in climate-change denial, and to muddy the waters around obesity and binge-drinking as they become crisis issues.”
…………..he PR industry remains busy creating and managing front groups. The Scientific Alliance turned out to be run from the offices of Foresight Communications, a PR firm in central London, and at launch was funded by Scottish quarry owner Robert Durward.
The Social Issues Research Centre “fosters the image of… a heavyweight research body,” as Annabel Ferriman wrote in the British Medical Journal in 1999 (vol 319, p 716). It is run by the PR/marketing company MCM Research, which used to announce on its website: “Do your PR initiatives sometimes look too much like PR initiatives?”
ironically, the biggest asset such operations have is humans’ deeply ingrained sense of fairness. They do not have to win a scientific argument. They merely have to convince citizens – among them politicians, judges and juries – that there are “two sides to the argument”. The stage for inaction, or rather for continuing their sponsors’ harmful activities, is thus set. Worse, perhaps, in principle, is the creation of a perception that all rational inquiry is serving some hidden interest. If every dispute is presented as having two incomprehended sides, why, in fairness, not see them as equivalent?
The defence is simple: full public funding of research, with enhanced ethics standards including transparency about funding. Simple in principle, that is.”
The link
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/opinion/mg19926661.800-i-hear-reason-i-see-lies.html
but you will need to be a member to see the whole story.
GG
I just read that Malcolm Mackerras agrees with you (unless you are in fact MM) and says it is more likely than not that there will be a DD, which he predicts will be in Nov 08.
He says that Labor would win by its current margin in the lower house. The interesting thing would be the upper house where Mr X and Fielding would lose the balance of power, with Labor only needing the Greens to pass legislation.
I can’t link the article as I read it in the Independent Weekly, which hasn’t posted it on their website.
Amigo FINNS
#1126
Just back after 2 hours at a “support Cossie’ meeting , and find th site still afflicted by that #1107 Gilligans gallaharo persons interruption , by people who efectively think Rudd by comparision is a pale imitation of snake oil salesman Obama We had a good day of bloging till that bullsh.t arrived
Anyway , what does this ‘IP’ bit do you mentiond
Costello had the opportunity to show his talent during the last election campaign and especially after Howard made them a two-headed horse. He was weak and ineffectual.
The reason Costello has never gone for the job as he is aware of his limitations. He knows he is not able to handle it. It is not the same as sitting in the Treasurers chair being ordered around by Howard and heavily coached by Treasury. Costello has been a one trick pony.
The man after so many years in the job couldn’t even beat a very nervous Wayne Swan in their debate!
Costello is not particularly competent in front of the camera and finds it hard to make his point, losing impact.
Rudd would obliterate him in a series of debates.
Diog,
the Great Wall of china was built by mass abusing of the human rights of the the ordinary chinese people by its own Emperor over two thousand years ago. Nothing much has changed since in China. The Chinese understand more about power than rights. Why? Because basically it was and still is a feudal society that was defined and entrenched by the Confucious teaching.
Mao and his Communist dynasty thought they can swept away the feudalism but, as we see now, they are just as feudal as the old system they tried to sweep away.
There is not much Rudd or anybody can do. The Chinese still think they are the Middle Kingdom, the centre of the universe. The barbarians are still at the gate and best kept out. Many barbarians tried, some even conquered China, but in the end the barbarians are either absorbed or repelled. It is best not to lecture the Chinese too much because they never listen anyway. Just engage them as Rudd has done and give them time to sort out the issues their way.
Ron
without trying to freak you out
your computer has an unique id (computer specific)
your internet provider (IP) has a unique address (though dynamic it will associate with your computer)
your email address relates to your IP (but also carries a “stamp” from your computer)
so basically anyone can be tagged as to when where and what they were doing on the net
some programs provide “aliases” to hide your IP/stamp but encryption to avoid detection is only available to the usual suspects
also every IP has a record(backup ) of every transaction
currently retained for up to seven years (depending on site/stamp)
have a nice day
Ron ps
SSL
secure socket link use 128 bit encryption
5 yrs ago considered miltary grade
SSL2 use 256 bit encryption plus!
new standard set to come in 2009/10
dynamic allocation of ’stamp’ independent of IP but with traceable ’signature’ with variable backup to unspecified locations time independent
in essence there is ALWAYS a trail
You could use Torpark which shows your computer being in some random foreign country. It is however quite slow.
Now I believe called XeroBank Browser
…a secure and encrypted connection to any of the Tor or XeroBank routers can be created from any computer with a suitable internet connection, and the browser clears all data that was created on the portable drive upon exit or on demand.
..works by routing Internet traffic through several “onion” servers, obscuring the originating address.
TP
On the PR industry, can I humbly suggest you read “Thank You for Smoking” by Christopher Buckley. The book was hilarious and brilliant, the movie sucked bad. He explains all the lobbyists tricks, including the third party foundations with ironic names.
My favourites were the Friends of Dolphins, formerly the Pacific Tuna Fisherman’s Association (sorry for that one Finns) and the Land Enrichment Foundation, formerly known as the Coalition for the Responsible Disposal of Radioactive Waste.
sounds fun, I shall get it when I can.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thank_You_for_Smoking_%28novel%29
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