The Brisbane Sunday Mail today carries a Galaxy poll of 800 respondents, which disappointingly for the conservatives shows no improvement following last weekend’s merger. Indeed, Labor has slightly increased its two-party lead to 53-47 from 52-48 in the outfit’s last such survey in June. Labor’s primary vote is up one point to 44 per cent while the LNP is on 40 per cent, down two points from the combined Nationals and Liberal vote last time.
The unreliability and/or Coalition bias of Galaxy is apparently taken for granted by most commenters on this site, so perhaps an overview of its track record is in order. The following list shows its primary vote findings in the final poll before each election it has covered, followed by the actual result in brackets (with Labor shown first each time).
Federal 2007: 42.5-42.5 (43-42)
NSW 2007: 40-38 (39-37)
Victoria 2006: 42-39 (43-40)
Queensland 2006: 48-38 (47-38)
Federal 2004: 39-46 (38-47)
179 Comments
lol @ bias! Please. This is within the error margin. There has been no movement. If anything, the bias could be called from a Labor leaning poll.
oh, and 44 to 40 with no Greens support looming. This is being very good to Bligh.
Thanks for adopting my name for the first two comments, much appreciated, saves me the trouble of having to think for myself.
“This time last week, the Queensland Coalition’s 51-49 lead in a Courier-Mail/Galaxy Research poll contributed to a frisson of excitement about its prospects at the election which, it was correctly anticipated, would be called three days later. A second Galaxy poll published today shows just how much has changed since then. Labor now leads 53-47 on two-party preferred with a primary vote up 3 per cent to 45 per cent, while the Coalition is down from 43 per cent to 40 per cent. ”
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/369
This shows how wrong Galaxy can get things in the run up to an election, they get it right on the night but are often spectacularly wrong beforehand.
Saw Springboard on Meet the press. Is it just me or does the deep voiced redneck get to other people. What is that, another annoying syptom of the Redneck is repeated us of the term, ‘listen to the people’. “I think that when you listen to the people they are telling us that they want a united party”. How do you know that Mr Springboard? This poll show the opposite. Bang goes the merger.
He suggested that Brenda wants a united party Nationally as well, I’m sure thats just what he feels like at the moment another divisive issue that is bound to cause heated and divisive debate.
Poor Haratio is such a sad sight at the moment that I am genuinely feeling sympathy at the moment. Now I know that that is a big call but really its getting to the painful stages.
The next big challenge for the Borg this week is to find a new Shadow Ministry. Just how he will manage that with the list of candidates available is unclear. It will be interesting to see how many former Liberals he locks into senior economic Shadow Portfolios. My guess would be very few after the battle for the Presidency, the Leader himself being a former National and a take no prisoners approach.
“This shows how wrong Galaxy can get things in the run up to an election, they get it right on the night but are often spectacularly wrong beforehand.” And that is exactly why I don’t trust them.
Will the Borg determine the number of former Liberals in the Shadow Cabinet on the proportion of Party members, the proportion of former Nat to Lib politicians or just name a former Nats cabinet with a couple of token ex Libs thrown in down the batting order?
Sorry steve. Long time reader and 2nd time comment. Forgot there was another. Follow the Preferences, I am not a fan. But I have begun to think Bligh is just bad enough to get done. We’ll see.
Much ado about nothing, within the margin of error. Now, back to business as usual.
This poll has to be on the mark because it shows Labor ahead.
All the pollsters are reputable firms, Galaxy included.
Nielsen, Morgan, Newspoll and Galaxy, are in the business of providing quality market research information to clients who pay for their services. Any whiff of impropriety and their businesses would be in the toilet.
In the case of political polls, it is paid for by Media outlets – News Ltd (Galaxy), Fairfax (Nielsen), The Australian (Newspoll). Morgan carries out their own polling without it being for any media outlet, although last year they conducted some polls for Crikey.
Galaxy it should be noted, also did work for Get Up, in last years election campaign.
Whilst David Briggs of Galaxy may come across to some as wanting to be a bit of a celebrity, that does not diminish the quality of his firm’s work, as William’s figures above show.
The more pollsters the better, in my view.
GB @ 7,
Do you trust the other pollsters more than Galaxy? If so, why?
“In the case of political polls, it is paid for by Media outlets – News Ltd (Galaxy), Fairfax (Nielsen), The Australian (Newspoll). Morgan carries out their own polling without it being for any media outlet, although last year they conducted some polls for Crikey.”
I was of the understanding that the market research companies did the polling for free or next to free for the newspapers, after all if you were to name 5 market research companies we would all come up with 5 pollsters.. Not many ways you can get you company name on the front page of the paper/first news story on tv every fortnight (for a good thing atleast..).
I trust the pollsters, but not necessarily the respondents. How many of them actually give the poll question more than a couple of seconds’ thought -not wanting to appear indecisive? There are too many human variables involved in sampling opinions, which may be changed during the next news item or ad break.
Given the smashing The Borg got in the lead up to the Meger I think a primary of 40% is excellent, I was expecting them to crash. Amazing the paper spins it Labors way. Go the Borg!
Spot on, Aristotle.
12 Dyno – I believe some polls are better than others. They all have their foibles and outliers but over time some stand out better than others. Galaxy seem to be able to pull out a “positive” poll for the conservatives at a time they need it the most. Then remarkably gain accuracy at the election. Westpoll is all over the place.
Just my observations and opinion. So far I haven’t been persuaded by others to believe otherwise.
Absolutely Aristotle.
It is not in the pollsters interests to manipulate their figures or carry out dodgy research.
However, there may be some differences in the quality of the research conducted between elections and that conducted during an election campaign. Most of the pollsters will pay more attention to their sampling and weighting for their pre-election polls – often increasing their sample sizes, doing more sophisticated weighting, having stricter quotas, making more call-backs.
Where they can sometimes be criticised is in how they interpret their own poll results – often seeking to create a story for their media outlets, getting carried away with their own perceived celebrity status or introducing their own political biases. Briggsy once worked for Gary Morgan so maybe he learned a few things there.
“Where they can sometimes be criticised is in how they interpret their own poll results – often seeking to create a story for their media outlets, getting carried away with their own perceived celebrity status or introducing their own political biases. Briggsy once worked for Gary Morgan so maybe he learned a few things there.”
You’re absolutely spot on Winston.
Joe, that’s true of all the pollsters except Newspoll. The Australian is uniquely willing to shell out big money on polling because it exists not to make money for Rupert Murdoch (which it hardly does), but to serve as his agenda-setting vehicle for the political and business elites. That’s why the paper is so extraordinarily touchy about having its interpretations questioned.
Joe @ 14
They don’t do their polls for free or even next to free. But they do discount their usual commercial rates because of the value of the publicity. Most of these polls are included in omnibus surveys (where most of the survey comprises questions for commercial clients) so the actual costs to the polling companies is minimised.
Gary, Westpoll (a.k.a. the perfectly reputable Patterson Market Research) is all over the place because of its small samples (400). If The West Australian paid them to double that, I’m sure they would be just as reliable as everybody else – i.e. not perfectly, but in the ballpark most of the time.
23 William – I understand the reason, it doesn’t change the result. Boy, there seems to be a determination by some not to offend the polling organisations this morning. Am I missing something?
Has anyone been spoken to about lawsuits or something?
Wlliam @ 21.
Not quite. Newspoll operates omnibus surveys little different from the other companies and their research for The Australian is only a small fraction of their work. However, you may be right that they are getting paid more for their polls than the other companies.
No Gary, I’m just expressing a view I’ve always held about this site’s pro-Labor majority: that it’s a little too conspiratorially minded.
Winston’s answer to Joe is more on the mark than my own. It’s probably only Roy Morgan whose MO is to do the polling for free essentially for publicity. ACNielsen would get paid by Fairfax and Galaxy by the News Ltd tabloids.
GB,
No lawsuits that I know of.
I just think Galaxy seems to have a pretty good track record, albeit relatively early days for them.
It is true that, in the case of the 2007 Fed, it was often more pro-Liberal than the others. However the final margin (52.7-47.3, wasn’t it?) was significantly narrower than the vast majority of polls all through 2007, so in my book that makes Galaxy the most accurate one for that election (or at least the most useful as it ultimately turned out). William’s figures above indicate they haven’t done too badly on other occasions, either.
Granted, they haven’t been around for as long as the competition, so they’ve had less chance to stuff up. But I’d still be curious to hear which pollster(s) you regard as better, and why.
You may well be right about that too, Winston. I don’t have any special insight into what Newspoll gets up to, but one hears about it in general market research contexts less often than Roy Morgan or ACNielsen (which is of course a major international concern). My understanding though is that it was set up in 1985 largely or entirely on News Limited’s initiative.
I see no evidence that a merger is better than a tight Colaition so the LNP is placing too much hope in the simple fact of its merger. Has labor one more victory left?
Just a few thoughts which may be of assistance.
As this site is named pollbludger, the focus of the discussion invariably is on polls and the results thereof. Which is fair enough. However, it is important to understand that polls are a form of market research and to correctly understand what they are saying it helps to understand what market research is. So here’s a brief summary.
Research is designed to find information (which is all it is – it is not an answer) to help solve a problem, usually a marketing problem. Research tries to understand what is going on by sampling a group from an entire population, that’s all, a sample.
There are several techniques which can help provide this information and they fall into two categories; qualitative and quantitative research.
Qualitative research, of which focus groups is only one form, is useful for providing detailed information but only from small numbers of people. You need very experienced and skilled operators to do this well otherwise you’ll get all sorts of garbage.
Quantitative research (mass surveys) is useful in providing information from large numbers of people but is limited in the range of information it can research. Two problems will arise though, sampling error and non-sampling error. Sampling error or statistical error of estimate is the error margin you have to accept because you are researching a sample not the entire population. Non-sampling error is the mistakes that researchers can make in collecting, tabulating and analysing the data, and believe me they occur.
There is much more involved, but that’s the basic introduction. Used together and correctly, they can provide much valuable information which will help a business (political party) make an informed decision.
How media and others, choose to interpret the results is another matter entirely.
Yes William.
Newspoll was set up in 1985 – probably mainly at initiative of News Ltd – but it was owned 50/50 by News & an established research company, Yann Campbell Hoare Wheeler (now morphed into Millward Brown).
Not sure if ownership is sill the same.
Sol Lebovic was previously News Ltd’s Marketing Services Manager.
But they were always intended to be a commercial research company – they were the first to base most of their work on telephone interviewing.
28 Dyno – I believe I’ve answered your question. I should have mentioned Morgan. That is another pollster I don’t place a lot of faith in. Might I add he tends to favour Labor so it’s not a Labor/Liberal thing.
For me it’s easier to tell you the ones I’m not enamoured with. Those that remain have some degree of cred with me.
But Galaxy seems to have got most of the elections pretty close, GB?
This is a “bad” poll for the LNP?
Well, in the sense that they’re behind, it certainly is. But 53-47 is not an overwhelming gap. And this result tends to suggest that the previous 52-48, which was contrary to the conventional wisdom and I assumed was a rogue poll, might have been an accurate measure.
With a ten year old government I guess it’s inevitable people will be getting tired of it and looking at the alternative. Maybe with the LNP the Coalition will finally provide a contest, which for political junkies will hopefully make the next election alot more interesting than the last three. (Unless you’re a die-hard ALP member in which case the last three elections have been nothing but fun…..)
‘Follow the Preferences’ – Springborg is no Redneck. Or could you list a few of his ‘redneck’ policies or behaviours?
“But Galaxy seems to have got most of the elections pretty close, GB?” So has Morgan Dyno. Your point is? I think I covered that earlier.
Let me reiterate Dyno – “Galaxy seem to be able to pull out a “positive” poll for the conservatives at a time they need it the most. Then remarkably gain accuracy at the election. Westpoll is all over the place.” How close were they with a poll that suggested Labor would win 2 extra marginal seats in queensland last Federal election? You said it yourself they tend to favour the conservatives. Morgan tends to favour Labor.
I really don’t know what you are trying to achieve with this.
36
Graeme Says:
August 3rd, 2008 at 2:09 pm
‘Follow the Preferences’ – Springborg is no Redneck. Or could you list a few of his ‘redneck’ policies or behaviours?
He supported Workchoices to th hilt
Enough to make him for mine th worst of red necks
You might like to do some research into Springborg’s positions on immigration, law and order, climate change and stem cell research!
He’s certainly attempting to rebrand himself as some sort of urbane quasi-Liberal. But that’s not to say he’ll succeed.
Another couple of takes on the latest in the LNP saga:
Brian Costar -
http://www.apo.org.au/webboard/comment_results.chtml?filename_num=223189
And me -
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/03/queenslandism-ii/
Btw, I agree that there’s potentially a contest. But I also think it’s in Bligh’s best interests to wait rather than go early – Springborg now has to fill in his “we’ll fix the roads, hospitals, everything – details later” blanks, and if he fails to do so, that may take any amalgamation gloss the LNP has off, even if there aren’t further internal or external explosions.
While Springborg for the most part plays the conservative climate change denial line, I have read much about his quote that ‘çlimate change is caused by volcanoes’ but have never been able to track down where the quote was made or in what context.
Maybe he got that idea from the same source that inspired him to claim that recycled water would cause dangerous feminisation of blokes?
Here’s a link to a sample of the Borg’s sophisticated understanding of science:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2006/08/01/the-national-party-the-manly-party-for-really-tough-blokes/
“recycled water would cause dangerous feminisation of blokes?”
Might explain the libs tax concession on alcopops, safer and more manly to drink alcohol.
Though Springborg supported Work Choices it may not go so much against him with a federal labor govt now having control of industrial relations.
I think it will be a contest in Qld, but also agree with giving Springborg time to let the voters get to know him. He’s bound to come up with a Barnet canal type idea.
On the whole polling accuracy thing – the most accurate poll of the 2007 election campaign was actually Nines “Passion Pulse” online poll with an ALP TPP result of 53.2%
The accuracy of predicting an election result is a bit of a wank really isn’t it when we’ve got enough evidence to suggest narrowing right up until or even during the day?
Are they predicting a result, or publishing the result of the time of asking?
It sure is Oni,
The luck (or the lack of it) with the informal vote alone can give a % or so either way onto the final result. If you add in the 2% truly uncommitted swinging voters that refuse to answer polling questions and don’t make up their mind until they’re actually voting – well, polling predictions start becoming more luck than science to get even within 2%.
The LNP needs to win 20 seats to form Govt. in Qld, Bligh has had no real “scandals”. SE Qld (the seats that matter) is a construction site, with every digger, bulldozer or bobcat going bonkers.
Roads, bridges, hospitals, water grids all to be completed before the election.
Anna Bligh may lose a couple of seats at worst, but a LNP victory is fantasy.
Yes there is nothing out there yet, though the election is still 6 months off and the LNP would be pretty silly to go on the attack to early.
There are wholes in the ALP offering in QLD and remember Bligh is untested as premier before the people that count the queenslanders. Are we really ready to elect a female premier, uptil now we haven’t been given that choice have we. It is 2008 but Bligh was forced on QLD not elected.
Open slather tree clearing. Here’s a good idea for a party claiming to be interested in being in government and needing city voters to help it get there.
QUEENSLAND’S new Liberal National Party is considering lifting Labor’s ban on tree-clearing in a move that will anger moderate Liberals and complicate plans for the Rudd Government’s carbon trading scheme.
Plans to review the ban emerged as LNP leader Lawrence Springborg blamed Liberal infighting for a poll that showed the party had failed to win over voters in the two weeks since the state coalition partners merged.
“LNP strategists said that with former Nationals having a two-to-one membership majority over former Liberals in the LNP, the ban on broad-scale tree-clearing would be eased. The ban came into force in 2006 and is deeply unpopular with farmers.
LNP president Bruce McIver confirmed it would be reviewed. “This is one of those policies we will be working our way through,” he said.
Mr McIver would not be drawn on whether the ban would be scrapped. “We need to have those discussions.”
LNP Maranoa Federal Electorate Council chairman Lindsay Reardon said most former Nationals wanted restrictions on tree-clearing eased.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24123153-5006786,00.html
“the ban on broad-scale tree-clearing would be eased”
Didn’t take the Borg long, looks like they will run on adds featuring ute man with a chainsaw.
Someone had a reply to my assertion that Borg is a Redneck,
It’s the Dolly Downer Syndrome. What I hear you ask?
The conservatives spend about half their time calling other people names, someone calls a National party member a redneck, and lo and behold they get all antsy.
Its really a basic issue of logic. The National party is the most rediculous party you can imagine. How they have ever managed to con the Libs, let alone the 5% of the voters who vote for them is beyond me. Their attitudes to water is a classic example. They have no place for rational long term views or policies, they are about extractiona and exploitation. Their policies around many social justice issues are really right wing and reactionary. They have another trait that really annoys, they make calls on issues like private schools with lines like “there are struggling kids at these schools, some of them have health care cards. We should show a bit more care and compassion.” Then they all retire to the local Mens club and piss themselves laughing.
Another reason why Borg could be called a redneck. Jo B-P was the premier for 17 years, he was a member of the National Party. Russ Hinds was of course a Roads Scholar and a member of the Fabian Intellectuals offshoot, the …..
Red Neck? Absolutely.
Follow the Preferences you are a Turkey Mate. They only poll 5% hey? funny they hold 19 seats in the Qld House of Reps you tosser and 10 in the Federal House. Watch the Borg become the next Premier. Hope you cry yourself to sleep. Captain Bligh’s ship is sinking.
Yeah good luck with that Moose. The LNP is running headlong for the right wing and we all know that’s the way to win an election in Australia…
NOT!!
You lefties sound a little scared? The Borg got you rattled a bit??? 40% Primary vote is fairly highly for a rubble of a party isn’t it???? and 12 months to go. LOL.
Moose, worked out the ninteen seats beside Mount Qmmaney yet or is all too hard to tell us what seats will be picked up at the next election? We’re still waiting Moose…(yawn).
“They only poll 5% hey? funny they hold 19 seats in the Qld House of Reps you tosser and 10 in the Federal House.”
National results 2007 election, First preference votes:
http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-13745-NAT.htm
Greens: 7.79% seats won: zero
Nationals: 5.49% seats won: ten
Yeah, it’s *hilarious*.
(Btw It’s called the “Legislative Assembly” in Qld and the Nats hold 16 seats, not 19)
d
Oooh how edgy. Mark Bahnisch still going on about the Borg and female fish. All I am reading in that statement is “it is a highly emotion-charged debate.” AND it was a doorstop in 2006 campaign, might be time to move on.
Steve, I have worked out how the Borg will take 19 seats. Just like Krudd took more than 19 in November and just like CAN DO and his LANDSLIDE LIBERAL VICTORY in March. You can’t stop the Borg. Resistance is Futile and yes YAWN I remember handing out how to vote cards for Matthew Bourke in the BCC election in March, the LIBERAL candidate for Jamboree now the LOCAL CAN DO MEMBER. The Labor booth workers laughed at us and told me that there was no way that Felicity Farmer would lose, she holds the seat by 8.6%. Well LOL and apparently she walked out of her “Celebration Dinner” crying and has never been seen of again. THAT IS HOW THE LNP IS GOING TO SNATCH MOUNT OMMANEY.
ps* Darryl Rosin you are a tosser mate. The Nats got 17.3% at the last STATE ELECTION and the pathetic GREENS GOT 7.9%.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2006/
http://www.kevinruddlies.com/lies/kevin.htm
http://www.lnp.org.au
60 Moose – Nah, you mean Goose.
#57
Poor old Moose shouldn’t have been quite so forward in his gushing support for the LNP.
Dunno about 19 seats, but there’s certainly a lot of low-hanging fruit for the LNP if (and it’s a BIG if) they get their act together. I could see most of the Gold Coast seats except Albert and Burleigh going; certainly Mudgeeraba, Broadwater, Coomera and Gaven would change hands as part of any half-decent performance by the LNP, as would Aspley and Indooroopilly in Brisbane. The redistribution has made Glass House and Whitsunday line ball, while I think the LNP should retain the notional ‘losses’ of Clayfield, Mirani and Burdekin.
That’s eight actual plus (probably) three notional gains without doing much more than not being utterly incompetent. If the LNP were seriously challenging, there’s a lot of traditionally swinging seats with inflated margins (like Mansfield, Redlands and Moose’s favourite Mount Ommaney) that will be very tight.
If the LNP offers a united front I could see the election being very competitive with many seats changing hands. It’s a ten year old government that’s had more than its fair share of problems. Although, I could also see the LNP disintegrating into warring factions and leading to another Labor landslide. Whatever happens it certainly won’t be boring.
How do I know the LNP Will win?
Believe me I am a member of the LNP and the energy is amazing, I am sure it was the same feeling the ALP had when Krudd was elected leader. We can feel that is it time for change. Whatever you freaks think I am assure you that there are no cracks in the LNP as the twits that did not want to be a part of it like Mal Brough have resigned. The LNP now boosts more members in Qld than the ALP. 1 Party, 1 campaign, 1 fund-raising, 1 message, no 3 cornered contests and no ALP taking advantage of the former dis-unity in the Qld Coalition. We have a strong likable leader and Deputy and believe me they are currently speaking with the excellent “Celebrity” Candidates just like Dudd did and also the have the backing of Queensland richest man who, for your information tipped in 10 Mill to kick off the new party and Palmer said he will pay whatever it takes to Roll Labor. Captain Bligh is history.
Here is a recent news report.
Billionaire to fund new conservative party
Mining magnate Clive Palmer has publicly pledged financial support for a new conservative party proposed for Queensland.
Mr Palmer, 53, has an estimated $1.1 billion fortune based on his iron ore interests in Western Australia.
The Nationals also have use of his 100-seat private jet and helicopters, prompting the government last week to claim the billionaire had “bought” the party.
Mr Palmer told Nine News he would provide the finances needed to make a new party a reality.
“I will do what I can to make sure the party does win the next election,” he said.
“This new party will provide real opposition in this state for the first time in 15 to 20 years.
“It needs people’s backing, and it’s got the sort of backing it needs to get its message across.”
The Nats got 5% nationally and 10 seats in the House. That’s footy, deal with it.
The State election was slightly better for the Nats than you think. Their final primary result was 17.82% for 16 seats compared to the Liberals 20.10% for 10 seats (and the Greens 7.99% for zero)
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/state2006/results/summary.html#13
So the Nats in Qld are about twice as popular as the Greens. Quite an achievement for a party that once ruled Qld in their own right. “Only half as pathetic as the Greens”. You should put that on a t-shirt.
d
You sound scared of The Borg Dazza. You should be. Picture Arnie trying to Kill Sarah Connor in the Terminator and now picture The Borg, coming for the lefties.
63 Moose – all well and good but it doesn’t prove a thing. The election is still a long way off. I agree with much of what 62 MDMConnell says. I doubt the LNP can do it in one election. They will eventually do it, no party remains in government forever but IMHO the election after next is their best shot as long as they make big gains this election.
I don’t live in Queensland but if the polls are in anyway close to the mark at present then there doesn’t seem to be this great yearning for change, not a government changing swell anyway.
Why so aggressive Moose? Anyone who has to behave in this manner really doesn’t believe in the case they are putting. It’s argument by stealth not argument by reason.
I agree with Moose, when the great Jo Bejerky Peterson run the good ship Queensland we conservatives and our capitalist backers knew our bananas from our Pineapples. We know where to find them and where to leave the brown paper bags. Oh my word, you . Don’t you worry about that, you pinko Greeny lefties, When I was the Premier we had rules and laws aggainst your type, I know where your house is . Don’t you worry about that, We would have driven the Greenies back down south where they came from Theres no need for that type of , well you know its not natural, I mean a pumpkin pie is a pumpkin pie its not anything eles and its happy in being a pumpkin Pie.
Here is a brain teaser. Would Jo Berjerky P be a climate change denier?
“Would Jo Berjerky P be a climate change denier?”
Didn’t he want to destroy parts of the Barrier Reef to create a shipping channel?? Maybe he’d be an enthusiastic CC supporter- “well, the reef is dying anyway, so what’s the problem in blowing it up??”
“You sound scared of The Borg Dazza.”
Oh please. There’s little I would like more than young Lol and his LNP to start acting like a competent opposition. I actually expect they probably will get their act together, but I have my doubts about whether a) they can present an appealing face to 21st century Queensland and b) whether ‘vote for us ’cause we’re not the ALP’ will be a winning campaign.
I posted the above because in your enthusiasm, you seemed to be missing the fact that the Nats appeal only to a small, fringe group of voters. That’s not a criticism, it’s just the way it is, but thanks to the coalition they’re way more powerful than the numbers say they should be. Qld is different to the rest of the country, and it’s going to be interesting to see how they go.
“Picture Arnie trying to Kill Sarah Connor in the Terminator and now picture The Borg, coming for the lefties.”
Have you seen this move through to the end? You might want to reconsider your choice of analogy.
d
d
I say “Angels fear to tread where Moose rushes in” You are brave Moose but your politics SUCK!! As you are our tocken neo-con in QLD state politics here at the “bludger” I look forward to your beligerence with a laugh. Are you related to ESJ???
Moose 63 Says:
August 4th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
“How do I know the LNP Will win?
Believe me I am a member of the LNP and the energy is amazing, I am sure it was the SAME feeling the ALP had when Krudd was elected leader”
“SAME feeling ” ? No , not at all , we ALP were leading in th Rodent in Polls , so we knew we were going to win Whereas yous ar sitting at 40% , big losing teritory I’d say so you’re relying on fluff & hopelessness
Fluff and hopelessness – I like that ron. I think I’ll call them the FHP now.
So do you think Cap’n Bligh go early before the FHP has time to consolidate or will she give them time to stew?
Personally I think she’ll probably hold out till the very last minute possible.
Experience tells us that the QLD conserative parties hate each other almost as much as they hate Labor. The possibility of the FHP catastrophically self destructing is fairly high I would think and Bligh would want to allow time for that to happen.
Did someone mention low hanging fruit that could be picked up at the next election?
(1.3)% Mirani (Liberal National Party held)
(0.9)% Burdekin (Liberal National Party held)
1.0% Bundaberg (Liberal National Party )
2.0% Hinchinbrook (Liberal National Party )
0.3% Clayfield (Liberal National Party )
2.2% Currumbin (Liberal National Party )
2.2% Caloundra (Liberal National Party )
2.6% Kawana (Liberal National Party )
2.7% Mermaid Beach (Liberal National Party )
3.4% Lockyer (Liberal National Party )
5.9% Beaudesert (Liberal National Party )
7.4% Macrossan (Liberal National Party )
7.4% Burnett (Liberal National Party )
8.0% Mogill (Liberal National Party )
I am predicting a huge swing to the LNP and an unprecedented victory for the Borg’s LNP and to make you freaks a bit more scared the inside scoop is that Campbell Newman will consider a switch to State Parliament before the 2011 State Election as his second term will be coming to end around the same time.
LNP!, LNP!, LNP! GO THE BORG!, GO THE BORG!, GO THE BORG!
75 Moose – why aren’t you at school today? This is childish nonsense. Disagree by all means but the personal abuse and extreme claims without genuine debate just leave me cold.
Through no fault of my own I was in Queensland for the last election, at a lovely outpost called Cairns. Now being a bit of a political junkie I actually went and handed out how to votes, just rocked up and helped the team. Its always interesting and I reckon you get a bit of a feel for the electorate.
Hold on to your hat mister Borg, queensland and the good citizens of that great state are a long way changed from the good old days of Jo.
The thing that people like moose don’t get is that the reason that the Qld cons are in opposition is precisely the fact that the white shoe brigade, used to brag about their links etc. The Can Do attitude is really some stupid development at all costs mantra.
I know that its good to be positive etc, but really the level of self delusion with the fibs and Nuts at the moment is just rather bizarre.
oops, Clayfield is (0.3) % (Liberal National Party held). It is nominally Labor following the proposed redistribution.
Hi Gary Bruce,
Just giving you feral lefty twits a taste of your own childish behavior.
Moose
Who is Campbell Newman, Oh sorry I remember. What you are saying here moose is that the present leader is a dud and somewhat more that the party has no chance at the next election, HA Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
Bob Santamaria, Campbell Newman is the Conservative Leader that smashed the Australian Labor Party at the March BCC Election? Remember? ALP seats fell one after the other? Remember man?
No, what I am saying is that he will be the Borg’s successor after the Borg is Premier for a few terms and Newman learns the ropes in the State Parliament.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
You can’t blame Moose, when you support the conservative side of politics in Australia you have to scrape the barrel when it comes to recent electoral victory. Perhaps next we will have him crowing about the President of one of the university student unions who is a Young Liberal.
Well LTEP you make a good point but politics works in cycles and since we lost Canberra you will now see the States fall like Domino’s my friend. In fact I predict if Colin Barnett takes the WA Liberal Leadership (As it would appear as Buswell is about to resign) we will take WA by the end of the year. Then QLD, NSW. Not a bad start. More to come.
http://www.thewest.com.au/
Well I wouldn’t be completely surprised with WA or NSW, somewhat more surprised with Qld. I find it interesting you don’t see the Liberal Party in with a chance in either territory, both of which are due to have elections this year.
I think, and I’ve never been particularly on the ball with predictions etc., that the ALP will squeak back in in WA, NT and Queensland, be returned reasonably comfortably in SA and Vic and they’ll probably be returned in a minority Government in the ACT. The big chances for the Liberal Party, in my view are NSW and Tasmania. I find it hard to imagine that the Liberal Party could lose in NSW at the next election, but we’ll see.
Moose, you know why the Pineapple Party needs a miracle or three to win?
What’s their policy on land clearing?
Regardless of the answer they give, they’ll place *at least* 10 ordinarily winnable seats out of reach by virtue of simply talking about it. And they’ll be made to talk about it.
Daylight saving? Makes the Sunshine Coast difficult, again, regardless of the answer they give.
Those two issues alone are nearly an insurmountable barrier for Pineapple Party victory – let alone the grenades that the ALP is going to lob into the LNP ideological divisions.
LTEP. Libs have NO chance in NT & ACT and no chance in VIC whilst Ted is still leader. No chance in SA while Mike “British Toff Accent” Rann is Premier. Liberals were going to win big in TAS when Big Red was Premier but jury is out whilst we see how the new TAS Premier performs.
NSW is already in the Bag for the Liberals unless they roll Iemma, however they still have no one else competent in the ranks.
QLD have The Borg and you know my views on that.
Moose
82 “Perhaps next we will have him crowing about the President of one of the university student unions who is a Young Liberal”
LTEP, she’s already won Mount Ommaney with 8% swing in the mind of the Moose. Pity about the other 3.3% needed.
Possum Comitatus you will find out about their policies over the next 12 months and during the election campaign, that’s how it works my friend and before you shoot off at the mouth again remember that Federal Labor were a rubble before Krudd was elected leader. Remember? 3 leaders in one term? Mark “Mad Dog” Latham first, then Kim “Bomber” Beazley. Our Little Rodent was doing fine then within 12 months things swung around? remember?
A week in a long time in Politics Possum and Qld Labor will do what they do best…..go from crisis to crisis….actually I think Nutall will go to jail this year. Good mob those Labor Ministers….
1. Libby “Drunk” Clark
2. Gordon “Bag Man” Nuttall
4. Merri “Blackmailer & Beattie Rooter” Rose
5. Pat “Bruiser” Purcell
Just to name a few……..
Moose
84 LTEP – I think you probably have it right but Tas is not as clear cut as all that. I see the Libs picking up NSW at this stage but nowhere else as yet.
Steve, if Julie Attwood leaves Mt Ommaney is in the Borg’s bag. Yeah mate, 11% swing. Inflated number. By the way, did you see the swing the Liberals got in Richlands at the BCC Election? Milton Dick just won and that’s good old Battlersville.
Just in case you need some evidence Stevo.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/brisbane/2008/guide/rich.htm
79 Moose – well, we’ve had the taste now how about proving you’re not a feral righty twit.
Moose, you mention you’re a member of the LNP, is that the Young Libs or Young Nats?
Anna Bligh will be the first female elected Premier in Australia.
You’ve missed the point Moose – it doesnt matter what their policy is, it will alienate a group they need to win.
If they run with a policy of increasing land clearing – they will kiss the South East goodbye.
If they run with a policy of tightening land clearing they will kiss the regions goodbye
If they have a policy of keeping the status quo – conservative independents will tear them a new one in the regions and the South East wont believe a word they say and they’ll kiss that goodbye too.
Special interest agrarian socialism is completely incompatible with most of South East QLD.That incompatibility will be exploited to the rafters.
And I understand fully what happened with Federal Labor and their leaders. When Rudd gained the leadership, the ALP primary jumped 7 points in the next poll and remained there for 8 months.
What it it do with the Borg again? That’s right, it went backwards on the headline.The best that can be said is that it didnt move at all.
The other difference between QLD and the ALP federally was this chart:
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/trendalpnov20.jpg
The ALP vote was slowly but surely growing anyway – Rudd just accelerated it. The Coalition in QLD hasnt shown the same underlying pattern since the last QLD election.
Grace Bruce, I am a member of the LNP.
http://www.lnp.org.au
I am 35, too old for the Young Anything.
Possum Comitatus, blah, blah, blah. You read to much into things. This election is up for grabs. GO THE BORG!
Oh I see now. Moose is basing his predictions on the Brisbane Local elections.
Not going to happen Moose. Locally the ALP was in some disarray with Hinchcliffe refusing to run as leader (fairly gutless act IMO). They were forced to parachute a cleanskin in as leader. Greg Rowall is a nice guy but he’s no politician.
Campbell Newman on the other hand is an excellent campaigner and quite centrist in his policies. The result was fairly predictable.
If you think the QLD Labor machine is going to make dumb moves like that you’re in for a rude shock. The LNP is the national party in a new frock and the National party has always been about pushing the pork into the country. An increasingly urbanised QLD won’t like that and you can count on Labor to poke and pry at those particular weakness. See possum’s post above for more eloquent details.
I’m sorry Moosey, it’s not going to happen, it just ain’t.
We will just have see Snoopdoggieb. Time will tell.
GO THE BORG!! THE BORG IS BACK!!
Perhaps Moose, but the last time I checked electoral behaviour actually had a pretty big impact on election results. Call me old fashioned.
I know stuff like observable reality is a bit passe in the Pineapple Party these days, but TEH CAPSLOCK can only get you so far you know.
96 Moose – “I am 35, too old for the Young Anything.” Well, you’re out of excuses then. How about acting your age.
Moose is really just a subtle whisper marketer. Pretty soon Queenslanders will all suddenly realise how great Mr Springborg is and question why they didn’t vote for him in 2006. I’m sure the reason they’ll all reach is because there were 2 conservative parties rather than 1.
Possum Comitatus you are old fashioned. Gary Bruce go away you are a twit. LTEP you are correct. They did not want Quinn or Flegg as Premier. Thank you.
GO THE BORG!!, THE BORG IS BACK!!
They didn’t want Borg either – twice!
Moose reminds me of a newly married couple just back from a great honeymoon and looking forward to a great future. Everything is rosy. The glow of a successful union is still present. “We can do and achieve anything”. Trouble is the glow fades and pretty soon the “we can do anything” hits the reality brick wall.
There is really no use arguing with anyone in this frame of mind. Reality has to hit first.
Moose, you call everyone here that dares disagree with you “freaks,” you are unable to interpret even the simplest of statistics related to previous elections and your strongest (and let’s face it) only argument for the LNP is to hysterically scream “GO THE BORG!” at the end of every post.
If you are truly representative of your “new” party, then I would think Anna Bligh has far more to worry about from the Greens than the LNP and Lawrence “Two Time Loser” Springborg.
103 Moose – “Gary Bruce go away you are a twit”. I rest my case.
“Special interest agrarian socialism is completely incompatible with most of South East QLD”
That’s how it was before the merger, with the Liberals suffering a backlash in Brisbane due to the Nationals’ dominance of the Coalition So any resentment is probably built in to how people voted last time. If One Nation was still a force I would agree with you about losing votes to the right, but apart from an odd independent here and there I doubt we’ll see wholesale defections like 1998/2001. So there is scope for the LNP- if they’re smart- to move toward the centre-right and target the Southeast, which is of course where most of the key seats are.
“If they’re smart” that is…..
Play nice, Moose.
Snoopdoggie B, Mike Rann was also opposition leader for 8 years before just winning his first election (after a former Liberal supported him) Punters usually want to get to know the opposition leader first and Borg was only 35 when he first became leader and had only been the leader for 12 months. In 2006 we all now that had the Liberals not rolled Quinn for Flegg he was in with good chance. The polling was neck and neck and after the election a poll revealed that 66% of voters did not believe the Beattie-Bligh Government deserved to be re-elected and it was the Liberals vote that crashed in 2006 because of that twit Flegg not the Borg. He ran a slick campaign.
SNIP: Insult deleted – PB
Huh? In 2006 Lib vote increased 1.6% over the 2004 result while the Nats only increased 0.86%.
In 2006 about 50,000 more people voted Lib than Nat.
That’s a fact Jack.
Snoopdobbie B, the simple fact is that the Nationals & Liberals did not each run candidates in any seats. So The Borg did not have a chance with Flegg as Liberal Leader. Once people worked out he was a bumbling fool voters that only had a choice of ALP or Liberal did not want the slight possibility of Flegg as Premier. This scenario no longer exist with the LNP. Go the Borg….
Oh and BTW, while you are technically correct – Rann was opposition leader for 8 years – remember he gained a 9.5 TPP swing at his first election and won office in his second.
Compare and contrast with Springborg at your leisure.
Moose, the difference between the times spent in Opposition from Mr Springborg and Mr Carr and Mr Rann is that both Carr (in 1991) and Rann (in 1997) had better than expected showings at their losing state elections. To put this in perspective in NSW in 1991, the Liberal Party Government went from having an 18 seat majority to having to rely on the votes of 2 independents. In SA in 1997 the Liberal Government lost 14 seats (Labor gaining 11 from a low of 11 seats) and there was a 9.5% swing to the ALP.
Comparing this to Queensland, the ALP Government in 2006 only lost 1 seat and almost no swing (I believe). It’s an extremely poor performance and I’m surprised they’re giving him another shot. The best that can be said is it’s hard to believe he can do worse the second time around.
#111
I think the point is that the disarray in the Liberal camp hurt the Nationals as the senior partner. It couldn’t really hurt the Liberals much because with only 5 or something seats (before 2006) they could hardly do any worse. From what I understand that is the conventional wisdom- that Springborg was a nice enough guy, ran good campaigns, and would have made a decent Premier, but was defeated by his own Coalition partner as much as by Labor.
And although I wouldn’t put it as…um….”enthusiastically”…..as Moose does, I do think that without the endless distractions of three-cornered contests, One Nation, dud Liberal leaders, and debate over who the Premier would be, a Springborg-led LNP could be competitive this time around.
MDMConnell that you for your sensbile fair & balanced comment. Everything you pointed out is spot on.
This election is going to be interesting and competetive for the first time in a long time.
LTEP, Springborg was also leader at the 2004 election, so make that third time around.
Nah, you’ve got it backwards Mooseman.
The reason neither Flegg nor Springborg would admit who would be premier if they won was that the truth was unpalatable.
Everyone knew the Nats were the senior member of the coalition and that Springborg would be premier and nobody in SEQ wants a National party premier.
We remember Joh. We remember the gerrymander.
They wouldn’t admit it because it was a vote loser.
So what’s changed? The name? It’s the same dude in charge.
We’re not stupid Moose, we remember.
To give him his due Springborg has precided over a small swing to the conservatives in each election. I do think he’s a damn good campainer but he’s a National and that’s poison is SEQ.
…in SEQ.
MDM at 108,
I agree that’s how it was before the merger, and the Libs and Nats had real issues being able to negotiate around sensitive areas when they were separate parties working in Coalition – being the one party now makes even the very small ability they had to tread carefully through these issues almost impossible.
One of the big problems for the conservatives in QLD isnt so much that they will lose votes from the right (although that can happen in the regions in a blink of an eye and the merger will probably lead to conservative independents in some seats taking a bit of the vote) but that they have really struggled to regain all of the One Nation vote they lost. Without gaining all that vote back or finding another voting demographic to make up for that group, it’s almost impossible for them to win.
I’m currently hunting around for some more complete polling data for QLD to go through this point comprehensively at the state level, but the One Nation Effect in QLD politics was almost identical to the One Nation Effect that the Coalition experienced Federally. I’m working up a piece on this at the moment, so I have a fortuitous graph available to highlight the size of the effect on the Coalition primary vote at the Federal level to give an idea:
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/coalprimontrends.jpg
One Nation cost the conservatives 6 points which they’ve never gotten back at the Federal level – at the State level it seems to be about the same, maybe a tad less.
If the LNP in QLD makes a play on the right to get them back, they’ll write themselves out of the game in the SE corner.
That forces the LNP to make a play to the center to get them back, but on ALP issues (which, surprisingly, is where about half of the One Nation vote has ended up). The membership of the Nats arent going to be happy if the LNP makes a play to the centre – and every time they try it, the ALP will lob a grenade like land clearing into the mix, stirring up the membership and the LNP party in the process, with the fallout making a mockery of their play to the centre. They might get a bit of the now ALP ex-One Nation vote back, but they’d also lose some metro Liberal vote in the process. Net result – an election loss because they need both the old One Nation vote and the metro Lib vote to win.
It’s a game they cant win because the the twin support bases of the Liberal/National party fundamentally disagree with each other over many issues, and most of SE QLD disagrees with the Nats over nearly everything. The merger has placed a straitjacket on how the conservative side of politics can play for votes in QLD and has effectively killed their chances of being electable, let alone actually elected.
The merger was an idea so profoundly stupid that only the QLD Nats could come up with it.
At least in Coalition the two parties could disagree with each other, but more importantly position themselves to their own unique demographcis – now they cant do that because The Borg has assimilated the Libs into one giant agrarian socialist collective .
No SnoopydoggieB, you are incorrect. Do the Math Smart Boy, The Liberals were running in more seats than the Nationals. If the Coalition won in 2006 it would have met the Liberals held more seats in the Parliament and Flegg would have been Premier.
And if Springborg comes close to victory but does not get over the line this time around then the general chatter in the LNP is that he can have a fourth shot at the title because as this is a “NEW” Party technically this is his first shot as Leader of the LNP.
Re- Springborg and land-clearing. I see the fear soldiers are out on the job. Meanwhile the fact is we’ve got the AAP having Springborg last week saying:
“That issue’s gone, the laws are in place, and the laws are staying there in place, there is no issue,” Mr Springborg told reporters.
“It’s a furphy that some people have been dragging around based on previous statements of certain people. What’s done is done.”
Possum Comitatus you are kidding yourself mate. The NT has had the CLP for a long time and was in Government and in the USA the GOP can win areas like New York City or South Dakota. They just have one strong conservative party for ALL America.
Beautiful graph Poss and beautiful post.
The crazy thing is that with Springborg the Nationals have a leader that could have firmed up their base and stopped the independents in their tracks. If the Libs had got their act together at the same time then we would have had a real opposition QLD.
As it is the best thing I can see happening is another thrashing of 2001 proportions. At least that would break up this stupid merger and refocus the conservatives on the correct way to win government in QLD.
SnoopydoggieB, again you are fooling yourself. The Borg has spent 7 years investigating the Merger. He knows what Lib voters want, he knows what the Bush wants and he knows what Queenslanders want. They want one strong anti-labor voice and they want THE BORG.
Bludging Pollster – land clearing happens every election. The holders of regional Coalition marginal seats try to bolster up thier own vote by making noises about winding back land clearing regulation, the leadership has to confront the press and make a big song and dance about how it’s not true and that land clearing will not be increased, the metro voters see a farmer leading the National Party making promises on landing clearing and go “pull the other one sunshine” and the Nats lose a few percent of the vote in the regions to independent conservatives because they look like sellouts, and lose a few points in the metro area because the small “l” Libs dont believe a word of it.
Moose, The NT and New York arent Qld. It’s not about some blissfully inane comparison of conservatives vs non-conservatives, it’s about the two different demographics of Liberal and National party voters, with the divide being particularly divisive in Qld compared to anywhere else in the country.
Not quite that simple Moose.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,21145652-3102,00.html
Doggie, that was struck AFTER the 2006 election.
“At least in Coalition the two parties could disagree with each other, but more importantly position themselves to their own unique demographcis”
But they couldn’t. The Nationals’ decision to preference One Nation in 1998 and 2001 decimated the Libs in urban Brisbane, from which they haven’t recovered. Being an independent party didn’t help the Liberals much then.
“If the LNP in QLD makes a play on the right to get them back, they’ll write themselves out of the game in the SE corner”
Howard got away with this at Federal level for a decade. Although to be fair maybe that’s a game you can only play from Government, not Opposition.
“the twin support bases of the Liberal/National party fundamentally disagree with each other over many issues”
I think you’re reading too much into this. All parties are broad churches. Labor has to balance the trendy left with blue-collar conservatism. After Tampa everyone was claiming the ALP was doomed because they could never reconcile these two groups. Yet six years later they’re in government.
I understand all your arguments. My point is that these were all issues the conservative parties were struggling with before now. So I don’t see the merger having any drawback from that point of view, but I DO see it having the advantages of no three-cornered contests, no uncertainty over the leader, etc (as mentioned #115).
The Borg spent seven years gazing into Clive Palmers navel. What is it with Qld conservatives and their messiah complex?
You saying that the decision would have been different had they won the election?
Pull the other one.
All they had to do was come out and say ‘whoever wins the most seats is the senior partner’. They didn’t do that because they couldn’t. Because there’s no way on this good green earth that Lawrence Springborg would have been content with deputy.
“The Liberals were running in more seats than the Nationals. If the Coalition won in 2006 it would have met the Liberals held more seats in the Parliament”
Actually this is plainly not the case. While the Libs may have run more candidates, they also a much more disproportionate number candidates in unwinnable seats.
By my (quick, and likely slightly off) reckoning: Of the 33 Queensland seats held by Labor before the 2006 election with 2PP margins greater than 60%, 24 of these were contested by Liberals and only 9 by Nationals candidates. I wonder how a National might have fared in Inala, South Brisbane, Woodridge or Nudgee?
When was the last time there was a three cornered contest in QLD?
I see Moose is actually our old friend Snoopy, returning almost a year to the day after I banned him for calling me the c-word. Happy times.
133 Grant
I live in Inala and it amuses me to even think of a Nat campaining here. He’d have to have a thick skin.
One last comment. If Queenslander are so overwhelming against this merger and “they will do worse than 2001″ they how come in their first week as a merged political party 40% of punters are prepared to back them if an election was held last week? Time to go home and watch Kerry O’Brien smash some conservative.
135 William
How rude. You’re never a C word.
A word maybe, b word at the very worst.
Come on William Bowe. I am a reformed person. You lefties believe in rehabilitation.
Don’t ban me man just because of my poltical views. Snoopy is dead.
135 William – That explains a lot.
I don’t think they’ll do worse. I just fail to see how it really makes a difference. Even the name of the party is completely uninspiring, the Liberal-National Party… so essentially they are what they’ve always been, except under one roof. Why does this provide a voter with more incentive to vote for them?
In the end it just looks like a marketing, rebranding tool which is the exact ’spin over substance’ that many conservative commentators would be spitting chips about if it was Rudd.
How exactly are they different? What do they stand for? Unless they can clearly articulate this or present the public with a more marketable leader I don’t see huge things on the horizon. The best that’s come out of it is that there’s one less party to have to worry about their infighting derailing electoral tactics.
I suspect if he was going to ban you Moose, you’d already be gone.
137 Moose – ” Time to go home and watch Kerry O’Brien smash some conservative.” Go home? You mean you were at work? Why watch Kerry do it, stay here.
Gotta bug. Evening all.
MDM at 130
The Libs and the Nats disagreeing over policy is a common currency with the Coalition across Australia. It’s only a recent phenomenum that any disagreement between the two in Qld is a “big public issue”. That just comes back to having poor political skills – it never used to be that way, even when the Coalition was in government. It also doesnt help that the things they disagree with are issues like who gets to be Premier – honestly, that was complete amateur hour.
Dont forget that One Nation didnt just shift votes away from the Libs , it also took massive chunks of the vote directly from the Nats that they’ve never received back as well. It’s a bit of a misnomer to think that it was only the Libs that suffered the One Nation effect – both suffered, but with different demographics, which is the key problem with getting that vote back.Being a single party or a Coalition wouldnt have made much of a difference with the One Nation effect on the vote of the major parties on the conservative side – we saw that play out in all the Liberal held regional seats at the Federal level as well as the Nats seats.
Howard kept the whole show together with the glue of incumbency and massive pork barreling is sensitive seats – usually starting about 12 months out from the election, running through the pre-election budget right through the campaign and on to election day, often delivering the money, or starting to deliver the money BEFORE the election itself.
You cant do that from Opposition because you dont control the Treasury benches.And even Howard eventually succumbed to the same problem – even the glue of incumbency couldnt hold these twin support bases of conservative politics together.
Each party being a broad church is true, but it’s not so much about the congegation, but the issues each party has available to speak with their congregation. While Labor can throw the left flank a bone every now and then, they know that the left will not desert them as preferences will flow back, allowing them to really pivot to the centre.
But the Conservatives have a different problem, they need to throw more than a bone to their right flank or the right flank revolts (rural independents, One Nation etc). But the bigger bone they throw, the more distrust and revolt it creates in the metro Lib seats that dont share those values. As long as the Conservatives can use the macro-economy and defence as issues to keep the metro seats quiet, they can throw biiger socially conservative bones to the regions to keep them happy – but when the macro-economy spiel or the defence spiel breaks down (or the conservatives realise it’s broken down and cant throw bones as large as they like to the regions) – it allows the ALP to waltz in on their issues of education and health and services provision to pinch votes from everywhere.
Which is what killed Howard, and has killed the NSW Coalition as well.
I’m aware that after Tampa people were writing off the ALP as a force – I wasnt one of them though, I thought the whole exercise reeked of innumeracy. The big danger if the LNP cant juggle their demographics is that they dont just face three cornered contests in some seats, but 4 cornered contests where theres an ALP, an LNP, a rural conservative and a small L Liberal. The high growth tourism seats are open to that possibility. That would be the Pineapple Party’s biggest nightmare – all of the problems of the merger, but still three and sometimes four cornered contests with conservative rural independents and small L liberal independents.
dogb: “Because there’s no way on this good green earth that Lawrence Springborg would have been content with deputy.” Well that may change my opinion of him then. He may be a leader afterall. I initially thought he wasn’t. Your statement should worry the Government, not bandaid them.
LTEP: “I just fail to see how it really makes a difference. Even the name of the party is completely uninspiring” well that’s conservatives!
#146
Re Libs and One Nation: Sorry, mustn’t have made myself clear. I meant the Liberals lost urban votes not to One Nation, but to Labor because of One Nation. Urban voters perceived the Liberals as an appendage of some Nats-One Nation far-right alliance, and reacted by voting Labor in droves. From what I recall the Liberals did try to take a different line on ON, but being in Coalition with the Nats meant they were punished just as strongly. I stick by my point that being indepedent did them no good at all, as they were seen as just a lap-dog of the Nats (which, maybe, they were).
MDM,
The poor old Libs got hammered from both ends in the metro seats, they lost votes to Labor because of the way their country cousins were preferencing One Nation on the one hand, as well as actually having One Nation take votes off them in Liberal seats on the other hand!
I agree with you that being independent did them no good regarding One Nation – but if they were a single party at the time, would it have been any different (assuming the Nat majority made the decision to preference for the entire LNP)? Or would it have risked having even more urban voters move to Labor?
“William Bowe Says:
August 4th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
I see Moose is actually our old friend Snoopy, returning almost a year to the day after I banned him for calling me the c-word. Happy times.”
capricious? clumsy ? combative?
a centaur? a cherub? a chiseller? a catastrophe? a cleptomaniac? a coward?
a conservative? a coalitionist?
Possum,
I think there would have been more discussion and debate about ON in a merged party, rather than the Nats panicking and making a spot decision to jump in with the hard right. It certainly would have prevented the 4- and 5-cornered contests we saw in 1998/2001 which cost the Coalition seats by splitting the vote (Burdekin, Burnett, Charters Towers, etc). As for turning more urban voters off, didn’t the Libs end up with ONE seat in Brisbane after 2001? Hard to do much worse than that!
How is Fiona Simpson feeling? From deputy leader to ? She has more talent and political nous in her little finger than McArdle has in his whole body plus someone elses.
I think the LNP will lose Caloundra, Kawana and Noosa at the election, and pick up Buderim maybe, Dickson has lost his One Nation christian backers, will the Liberal “Buderim on Top” folks back him?
The Sunshine Coast will reject the Borg, Fiona will be an LNP island in ALP territory.
“I think the LNP will lose Caloundra, Kawana and Noosa at the election”
I don’t.
MDM,
I wasnt thinking so much of the seats (lucky – with a number like that there aint really much to think about!) but with the long term consequences of the vote, in that a certain chunk of the vote that left the Coalition over One Nation never came back. If a larger chunk left the Libs in urban areas, would an even larger chunk have never come back?
Which would have not only led to the Lib wipeout, but would have come close to an organisational wipeout as well.
MDM
Just my view, but I did say Mal Brough cannot win Longman.
Possum,
No, I think in urban areas the One Nation vote was taken just as much from Labor as from the Liberals. ON outpolled the Libs in quite a number of mega-safe ALP seats in Brisbane. The real damage to the Libs was the loss to Labor in the swinging middle-class marginals. A harder line against ON- which a merged party might have offered- would have damaged the party more in rural areas, but would have kept the middle class of Brisbane and the Coasts onside. And since some/most- if not all- of the rural ON voters came crawling back to the Nats in 2004, the longer-term implications would probably have been more favourable. As it is, by cosying up to ON, the Nats lost ground in the bush anyway, and the Liberals are still paying the price in Brisbane a decade later.
I think the vulger term for a female’s Genitalia
Just been catching up with the thread. Apart from the interesting stuff from various folk, the contributions from the Moose character are particularly entertaining. Too much U.S. TV watched in formative years, IMO. Shorts out the synapse.
Aristotle, much as I appreciate your thoughts on just about anything, the pedant speller in me suggests kleptomaniac is the correct spelling, however, this may escape Moose.
Frank C., Aristotle’s just joking.
I can just imagine the glee of conservative independents in both city and the bush lining up their campaign managers and bank managers right now to give the Liberal National Party the rough end of the Pineapple. It would be unsurprising to see a dozen or so of these win at the Pineapple party’s expense.
The best move for the Pineapple Party could be to take Shadow Minister Hobb’s policy for councils and deamalgamate.
Moose , my point too close to reality , you could not answer ?
ron 72 Says:
August 4th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Moose 63 Says:
August 4th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
“How do I know the LNP Will win?
Believe me I am a member of the LNP and the energy is amazing, I am sure it was the SAME feeling the ALP had when Krudd was elected leader”
“SAME feeling ” ? No , not at all , we ALP were leading in th Rodent in Polls , so we knew we were going to win Whereas yous ar sitting at 40% , big losing teritory I’d say so you’re relying on fluff & hopelessness
Moose 139 Says:
August 4th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
“Come on William Bowe. I am a reformed person. You lefties believe in rehabilitation.”
“Rehabilitation” ? we believe in it as an equity measure for those ‘saveable’ , but pineapple’s don’t fall into that definition , but fleetingly you were in our minds there
Yeah, as a leftie I would go for ‘Rehabilitation’ for Mr/Ms Moose, how about a re-education camp in the Simpson Desert for starters? And electric shock therapy every time he types ‘Go the ….’
Newspoll has done a bit of polling on the latest Pineapple Party’s attempt to sort out the fight over the spoils of defeat but there is still no sign of a Shadow cabinet being named. It must be a difficult job to fill the major Liberal National Party’s portfolios of Shadow Minister for tree clearing and Shadow Minister for daylightsaving.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24129821-5006786,00.html
meanwhile the Curious Snail serves up this nonsense to its readership.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24128703-3102,00.html
“4 cornered contests where theres an ALP, an LNP, a rural conservative and a small L Liberal.”
Poss
Perhaps the LNP needs to differentiate itself according to the area it is running in, like labor does in rural areas by calling itself country labor.
For example in rural seats they could call themselves the Country Liberal National Party or maybe put the national first to emphasis the bush bit, ie the National Country Liberal Party or even just the National Liberal party.
And in those 4 cornered contests you talk about then it should be the Conservative National liberal Party, this of course overcomes the problems you mentioned.
For city seats where they are wary of the nats they should do similar, eg LIBERAL national Party, or even Liberal N Party.
They need to get smart and sneaky like they did in Paulines time when they had election placards saying “Vote One National Party”, a real sneaky subliminal message. Maybe they can do that again “Vote ONE liberal NATIONal Party”.
Couple of interesting points from those links steve.
“Only 22per cent of voters believed Mr Brough would make a better leader than LNP state leader Lawrence Springborg (42per cent), although 36per cent were uncommitted, perhaps because of Mr Brough not having declared an interest in the job. His most recent stated intention was to leave politics for good.”
Perhaps they should also have polled on whether they ageed with Broughs intention to leave politics, though the last poll on this was done eight months ago.
And
“Some Liberal moderates were angry the LNP was now considering opposing a Labor ban on tree-clearing”
It is a clever move by the LNP to oppose the ban, if they clear all the trees then there won’t be any left for the greens to hug and they will leave for another state that still has trees thus increasing the LNP share of the vote.
Re: Possum Comitatus, Moose and QLD/US elections…
I would simply like to say that Possum is more right on this one than Moose is. While Reagan built his “Reagan Coalition” during the 1980s, it seems to be on its last legs right about now. It may get John McCain into the White House, but that’ll be all she wrote for that.
Regarding QLD, Poss is again correct: the Nats are strongest in areas which won’t countenance any slippage to the centre, whilst the Libs do best in areas which will whack any shift to the Right by feeding votes to Labor.
No matter what they do, the LNP is caught between pillar and post at the next election.
“Harry “Snapper” Organs Says:
August 4th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
Aristotle, much as I appreciate your thoughts on just about anything, the pedant speller in me suggests kleptomaniac is the correct spelling.”
Guilty as charged, Harry.
The Moose is back, Go the Moose!!!!! The Moose is a GOOSE!!!
Hey Moose go blog at dickheadsrus.com ….BBWWWWAAAGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
Can someone tell me if the agrarian socialist receive their subsidy cheques every second thursday.
And Rurla Liberals. Why do you forget them so?
Rod Says:
August 5th, 2008 at 6:57 am
Springborg doesn’t oppsose a bam Rod:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/LNP-urged-to-clarify-tree-clearing-stand-H74WQ?OpenDocument
“Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg late last week indicated the ban would stay in place.
“That issue’s gone, the laws are in place, and the laws are staying there in place, there is no issue,” Mr Springborg told reporters.
“It’s a furphy that some people have been dragging around based on previous statements of certain people. What’s done is done.”
But, he said, property owners had not been properly compensated under the deal and the LNP would address how the government could better respect property rights.:
It is obvious that many of you are too critical of the LNP and have failed to recognise that the new party, with new thinking, a new united team, and new united leadership, have a bright future.
Here, from http://www.springborg.com/lawrence-views.php?id=1 is a sample of the new thinking, which shows clearly just how clever they are, so clever in fact, that I doubt that many of you lot will even be capable of recognising the sheer genius of it all.
“Our capacity to generate renewable power isn’t to be measured as a quantity – as our vast reserves of coal and minerals, prime agricultural land, or fishing grounds have been measured in the past.”
So there you have it, brand new thinking, and no more of that old hat quantity rubbish.
“In a major new move, a Springborg Government will establish and fund regional partnerships between local researchers and authorities to expedite these alternative, renewable resources.”
Regional Rorts MkII the Nat just love regional partnerships.
Fun with Anagrams – Pineapple Party edition.
Anal Peppery Pit
Papa Inept Reply
Plainer Pap Type
Playpen Pea Trip
Aplenty Pap Ripe
Pale Nappy Tripe
Pale Panty Piper
Pearly Pant Pipe
Nipple Party Pea
Paper Plain Type
Nat Era Peppy Lip
174 We are not really interested in Pork barreling regional partnerships at present just a lull in the war long enough to name the Shadow Cabinet, is that too much to ask. By the stunned mullet silence that has greeted the Borg’s promise to name a Shadow Cabinet we can only assume that the war against the former Liberals goes on unabated.
BP aka Steve
“Liberal National Party (LNP) president Bruce McIver told The Australian newspaper the 2006 ban on broadscale tree-clearing could be scrapped if the party won the state election, due late next year. ”
They need to get their act together, with the LNP president indicating the ban will be scrapped.
Think of all the koalas that will be left homeless, oh the humanity.
The Liberal National Party has announced the former Liberal Party Director, Geoff Greene has resigned and candidates are being called this weekend for those seats not held by a sitting members. Preselections are to be sorted out as soon as the final redistribution is announced this month.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/first-casualty-for-new-conservative-party/2008/08/07/1217702224952.html
It looks as though confusion is the main trait of the National Liberal Party. Apparently you’re a member if the Pineapple Party website says you are:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24136277-3102,00.html