Essential Research’s latest weekly survey features questions on refugees, climate change and the Olympics, along with the finding that federal Labor holds a 58-42 lead over the Coalition. Read all about it.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Essential Research: 58-42
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389 Comments
The narrowing……
No fair – again, no demographic breakdowns to poke fun at!
I think they’re sulking.
The new kids on the block seem to be showing “the widening” in spades.
If Costello takes over, can he better Nelson’s ratings?
If the economy does go into recession (and I certainly hope it doesn’t) I think it will help Labor overall. It will be to close to Howard’s era for them to duck responsibility for it. And actions such as that silly refusal to pass revenue measures like the luxury car tax in the senate will expose that they don’t really know how to be responsible about budgets – the Libs were just lucky.
How reliable is Essential Research?
Another poll has the Liberals way behind, probably much to the astonishment of their media mates, eg. Shanahan, Milne
Progressive what are you on about? How worse could it get for the Liberal Party?
Moose: it can get a whole lot worse for those dickheads, especially if they parachute Smirky into the top job. And if Costello does as I suspect and announces he’s leaving politics, all of the last few weeks will have been for nothing, and the right wing idiots will keep Nelson as leader to stop Turnball!
The Liberals are always a rabble in opposition!
It’s pleasing to see that voters with lower earnings are just as racist as their redneck US counterparts. They think the Rodent’s mandatory detention didn’t go far enough.
Rudd hasn’t been praised all that much here for his “politically courageous” decision to wind back mandatory detention but I think it’s the best thing he has actually done in power.
Socrates at 4
It is more likely that the majority of swing voters will either blame Labor for a recession since Labor has now been is power for 9 months, or if Kevin Rudd can win the argument about the international forces affecting the local economy then neither party will get the blame. Only a continuing of the current level of incompetence by the Liberals after a recession has been officially declared could see them become the loser.
I dont think you can say the govts changes are a ‘politically unpopular position’ using that poll.
How many of the respondents have a clue about how many refugees we take in and ever notice them and, how often does the issue register in their mind. The issue is nowhere near emotive as it once was.
They also say that Rudd has increased our refugee intake to 13,500 and ask if that is too high etc. But of course it gives them nothing to compare against. How much was the increase and how many have we taken in past years. The number is meaningless by itself.
The question really amounts to do you think 13,500 is a big number, small number or just right number.
People who support reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reducing air pollution and road fatalities should oppose the luxury car tax rise.
TP
I’ve been a bit surprised at the lack of dog-whistles from the LNP about the end of mandatory detention. It does show that the Rodent really didn’t leave behind a successor to take his place. There was abominable succession planning from the Libs, which happily will make them unelectable for at least one election and probably more.
#8
Voters may blame Labor if there’s a recession, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will vote for the Coalition. They may feel Labor is the lesser of two evils in hard times.
Remember Hewson – voters blamed Keating for the recession, but felt Hewson’s “cure” (a GST, public sector job cuts and throwing the unemployed off the dole) would just make a recession harder for them.
The Coalition needs to take notice of the lesson here. It needs to have a policy for getting out of economic trouble that doesn’t involve making it harder for the low-paid and the unemployed. Labor has an image (whether justified or not) of caring more for those who can’t help themselves, and for supporting basic public services more than the Coalition. The Libs/Nats need to work out policies to stimulate employment and economic growth without savaging welfare.
While I think voters will cut Rudd some slack, because the economic problems are global, the harder times will certainly prompt many of them to vote for the Coailtion if they think the Coalition can do a better job. That’s a big if, at the moment.
There are a lot of signs of unemployment increasing for low-skilled, low-paid workers (cuts at Don Smallgoods, Starbucks, SPC cannery), and quite a few small companies in country towns are quietly going out backwards at the moment. Basic manufacturing and food processing are getting particularly knocked around, and China will continue to undercut us in these areas.
Diogenes, just wait until the first boat turns up…
GhostWhoVotes 9
Surely someone could remind the punters about the Coalitions continuing fondness for Workchoices and how it might be abused in a recession?
ABC is reporting that Paul Wriedt attempted suicide, which seems to be more to do with a marital breakdown and work stresses that Sam Newman’s comments, which were probably just the last straw rather than being the main problem. It does remind us of how easy it is for us to comment on politicians from the comfort of our chairs without remembering what a stressful job it can be. Lets hope she gets well soon.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/05/2324396.htm?section=justin
Paula Wriedt has my sympathies!
It reminds me of Nick Sherry harming himself some years ago, after one Peter Costello launched a nasty personal attack on him in parliament!
We should remember politics is a stressful business.
Oh no, Diogenes. Those in the community who are least able to compete for resources are most afraid of competition for resources. How could this be? I’m sure an enlightened, compassionate body like the AMA would never be afraid of a little competition from overseas.
I suspect a recession will hinder Labor – but only a little overall. It will exacerbate their looming NSW problem, other than that probably won’t make much difference to the size of what ought to be a comfortable victory at the next Federal election.
A focussed, determined Costello would be by far the Libs’ best option if there was a recession. But, judging from his continued inaction over the past few days, I am probably referring to a Costello who doesn’t actually exist?
As to whether there will be a recession – Tanner has taken the best line so far, pointing out that it’s very premature to be calling one. But if you have any doubt about where the US is heading, have a look at this graph showing the amount of help the Fed has given the US banks at various times over the past hundred years: scary, considering the current series of “loans” (aka handouts) don’t really seem to have fixed the problem.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/borrow
I am leaning more and more to the view that Brenda will lead the libs to the next election. I may be wrong but if you think about it it makes a bit of sense.
Cossie the great saviour won’t stand, all this hubub in the past few weeks is designed by him to maybe get a few more book sales. He has deliberatly led on his drip fed msm mates and they have duitifuly done the job and stirred the pot.
2 Turnbull has to many enemies at the moment who would rather they lose than be beholden to the rich lefty one.
3 Really who else have they got ,that in in the next 2.5 years can engage the public, build a profile and take on Mr. Rudd.
4 Maybe the libs knew that lab. are in for more than 1 term and brenda is a 1 term leader.
The odds on Brenda being the leader at the next election are pretty good so a little wager may be a smart move.
The general consensus is that the interest rate has peaked and it is on the way down. Some are predicting that it will go down to 5.25% about 2010.
That will be 8 interest cuts till 2010 election time. Much better than 8 interest rate rise leading up to the last election. In addition, inflation is also expected to be in range. Who will be sitting pretty then in the election cycle? This will send shiver down Cossie’s spine.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24132206-20142,00.html
So Rudd in 2010 can boast that interest rates are always lower with a Labor Government in power? That’d be a nice turnup for the books.
TW
Doctors love people coming from overseas. About 20% of doctors are overseas trained. The whole health system would fall apart if we didn’t have overseas doctors.
The RBA will drop interest rates next month, the first since Dec 2001. Anyone think Swan will fail to point this out?
A quick sharp shock, people have stopped applying for credit. Started paying off debt and saving.
Swanee will be hailed an economic genious.
Finns @ 21,
I’m not an economist, and you may be for all I know, but I’d have thought the only way there’ll be eight rate cuts by 2010 is if we’re experiencing a pretty severe downturn?
In which case interest rates will not be the only, or even the main economic issue.
http://www.news.com.au/comments/0,23600,24130724-5007146,00.html
A solar Day , another new solar invention
Am not convinced either th MSN or Nelson & his bandits , realise th magnitude of econamic and structural reform Kevin07 is proposing with his ‘oz’ brand of ETS , which will change th face of ‘oz’ industry at every level and
our personal use of and for diferent vehicles & appliances affected ETS seems boring , is reely simply a tax and a cap But th final output should be solar geothermals etc , and th inputs will be th most fundamental reform change in ‘oz’ history My interest has been in th solar , an end enegy infrastucture & worry ETS will be ‘abused’ by big Oilys etc to prevent solar/equivalent
Whilst I’ve always thought this , describing a view of Costello today in #1433
actually annoyed because here is a consevative politcian who himself in 12 years produced his conservative program to us , but gave no vision and produced no futuristic econamic or structural reform (GST being a minus) but th Media loved him & treats him as a star Yet our Sir Kevin , bland and cautous is actualy producing a massive revolution affecting every walk of business & personel life , but professionally & quietley , but without Paul’s rope de dope flair
Challenge will be getting th solar etc going , when & by whom , and a huge problem is techno is moving so fast , when to draw line and say go with this one Today Gaffhook #1435 & Thomas Paine #1435 links of a new solar option (had copied yours Thomas when you posted it th other day ) option under this techno is solar as th starter (not dirty fossils) and pssible for hydrogen powered cars and creatng carbon-free electricity to power a house or an electric car, day or night , by new catylists developed avoiding need of expensive platinum Needs more engineering work to interface , but projected 10 years go th other altern as posted a month ago , of US alternative plan of tracts of land of photovoltaic cells erected , excess daytime energy stored as compressed air in underground caverns to be tapped during nighttime hours , solar concentrator power plants and a direct-current power transmission backbone
Perseptions ar false , Costello a MSN news pop star but no legacy , and Sir Kevin quietly creates a reform legacy , and we may be even more th luckey country , as with so much land and so much sunshine (solar awaiting) it could be exported to Asia
I think the point is that at the next election not all of the economic news will be bad. There will be light at the end of the tunnel, which can only assist the government.
Ron,
Style over substance is a curse that blights almost every aspect of society.
In the commercial setting, brand is more influential in success than manufacturing excellence. It’s a product of the same mentality.
19 dyno – yowwsaaah!
that’s a nasty little graph
You sort of get used to the main parties having a certain sort of inevitability about them. They get knocked flat, stuff around for about ten years, then crawl back up again as the other lot wears itself out in government. However, the conservatives have imploded and rebirthed in the past. The LNP is a current example.
This leads to a question – Are the liberals more likely to regroup within the current party framework and start on their Great March back to power, or is there a greater chance they will they disintegrate, restructure, rebrand and start again? I have to say I don’t really detect too many centrifugal forces, except for sheer frustration.
Quite possibly so, GB. In fact I’m with Tanner, it’s too early to be making assumptions about a recession coming.
The only definite bad I can see for Labor is NSW, with its utterly inept Govt that doesn’t face the polls till after the next election. That might cost Labor 2-3 seats at the Federal poll, but frankly, it’s not a big deal in the overall picture.
Boer
the fibs are finished kaputsky
before the last election i said they would turn on each other like sharks and devour their own
a few days ago i said vale fibs
it will be along slow and sometime agonising death
quite poetic really
Boerwar,
Barring a startling late-life development of intestinal fortitude from PC, the Libs need to go with Turnbull to become relevant again in the immediate future. It’s really that simple.
Longer term – Hunt, maybe? There’s not a lot else out there that I have seen.
If Labor becomes the party of business (which I actually think is a serious possibility, and definitely a logical consequence of the sort of predictions the Piping Shrike is making), then the Libs will be dead. However I’d imagine most Labor supporters would see becoming the party of business as anathema.
So – dunno. The Labor brand will definitely survive (and probably flourish), but the party may become unrecognisable. The Liberal brand – not so sure.
gusface,
If you’re right, business will surely take over the Labor Party. After all, they’re not going to languish on the sidelines with no chance of having a say in the important stuff, and the unions (traditional owners of Labor) are going backwards anyway.
Good news for the Labor brand.
Bad news for the Labor Party as we have always known it.
Alternatively, this may just be a bad time in the cycle for the Libs. We’ll know for sure, one way or the other, in about five years I reckon.
Dyno
i believe a composite fibs will happen ( much like the LNP)
the neocons will hold onto an increasingly irrelevant brand (liberal)
possibly the formation of a few splinter groups (state as opposed to federal)
and labor and the greens battling out for the other 80%
Yes, but if Labor and the Greens are fighting it out for 80%, Labor will be the party of business.
I personally won’t have a problem with that, and would support Labor under those conditions, but I doubt if many current Labor supporters would be too thrilled.
Still, it’s only my opinion. We’ll find out soon enough!
So no one thinks brenda will be in charge come 2010?
Can’t see it, madk.
I can see your logic, but I just think the Liberals’ desperation to win (or at least avoid total humiliation) will overwhelm them in the end.
Good luck with your punt, though, you’ve thought it out sensibly, you deserve to win.
Dyno @ 36. I agree that is the most likely scenario but five years may not be long enough. One risk for the laborites is if Rudd becomes a bit like Howard – so dominant that there is no natural successor, or succession plan.
I note that Mr Kennett is quoted as having said that the messiah has all the attributes of a dog except loyalty, so not much future there, methinks.
But, lol, If Labor does become a small ‘l’, socially wettish, business-owned party, and with a bit of knocking the rough edges off any market failure thrown in, they could just change their name to the LabLib Party. Then the Greens could change their name to the Greenish Labor Party and form the loyal Opposition. This would leave the Nats. They could change their name to the National Independents Party. They have always been rural socialists but the new party constitution would need to take something from late nineteenth century anarchist theory and some latish twentieth century chaos theory so that the inmates could all feel comfortable that they have a framework for addressing any internal conflicts.
madk
Your logic has only one flaw, desperation. Brenda is a compromise that the divided Fibs seem to be happy with but if he does not start to peg Labor back soon he is toast.
Costello will not lead, he will resign in Sept-Oct. This leaves Talcum who will only ever lead the Fibs with a slim majority.
So to my mind they will dump Brenda, not accept Talcum and pick someone else, my bet is Abbott who will lead them to a devastating defeat at the next election.
Dyno
#38
Would like to take a bet against your 2010 scenaro , but could be running my rons solar farms by then
Th Fibs will not splinter in that there core 38% to 42% will remain there’s Labor will not move from where it is for two fundemental but diferent reasons
Firstly Labor has a ‘left’ philosophical policy base , and so will retain th same voter mass as now Whether it pinchs a LITTLE soft Lib votes will not be becaiuse Labor has moved at all , but due to unhappy Libs There is absolutely no evidence of any Labor politcan remotely talking philo’s or policys inconsistent with curent Labor policys or philo’s Secondly why would they need to move , th Greens ar trapped to there left with no wwhere to go to th right , and th right spectum arc is smaller and Libs ar trapped in it with no where to go to th left
Libs win electons over Labor generally by pinching ‘labor type’ suporters , usualy when labor st.ffs th econamy or hav a Crean type Leader , and once Libs ar in they usualy hold power with ‘bribes ‘and targetted vote winning handouts or by wedgies to generally that voting group
Dyno, you dont have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing so said Bob Dylan.
By 2010, the economic wind looks like will be blowing favourably for Labor. If so, the Libs will have nothing left to beat Labor over with.
A superior economic manager was their only mantra. If that is gone, zip.
Let see what is left: CC, Environment, Water, Education, Infra-structure, Health, Reconciliation, Immigration, Defense, National security, Foreign Affairs, Housing, IR – Labor has got these well covered.
There is always Tourism, Sports and the Arts. Where the bloody hell are they?
Amigo Ronnie – [Libs win electons over Labor generally by pinching ‘labor type’ suporters , usualy when labor st.ffs th econamy] – i post too soon at #44
Anyone who still evaluates Australian Politics in terms of Left or Right is a dill (sorry ron).
This is the fundamental change the Rudd has introduced, some may catch on sooner or later.
The rump of the party that was the national party is instructive to the fibs
as the demographics change and their natural base dies off so does the party
with the likelyhood of oakeshott winning a cold shiver must be going down the nats spine- who’s next?
and still the fibs dither
Interesting article in the Wall Street Journal. When Voters Lie.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121763171653206035.html
“It’s a given that people fib in surveys, and this election season is especially tricky with race looming as an issue. How pollsters are trying to uncover the truth.”
“One of the toughest questions on any poll is whether people are telling the truth. It is a conundrum that looms front and center as voters look ahead to the first U.S. presidential contest that an African-American candidate has a chance to win. With polls showing overwhelming voter support for the idea of a black president, researchers and pollsters are trying to determine who really means it.”
“Pollsters look for the “Bradley Effect,” the idea that some white voters are reluctant to say they support a white candidate over a black candidate. The phrase refers to California’s 1982 gubernatorial election, when the late Tom Bradley, a black Democratic mayor of Los Angeles, led in exit polls against white Republican George Deukmejian. Mr. Bradley lost the election. The conclusion: some voters hid their true choice from pollsters. Skeptics say the issue was neither race nor honesty. One theory is that Mr. Deukmejian’s supporters simply didn’t want to participate in polls.”
There is no recession. There will be no recession. Labor will win the next Commonwealth election with more seats than it has now. Just wait for the real reform of the tax system and the real education revolution and the real federal-state reform, to mention just three vote-winners coming up. The Rudd Government is serious about the long term, even though that is obscured by the strangely repetitive fascination of the Liberals in Canberra copying the state and territoy Oppositions in their inability to deal with reality. The Liberals will not win a parliamentary election until NSW in 2011.
Ron,
Once the business folk work out the Libs are permanently dead they’ll be all over Labor like a rash.
Under the “Liberals are dead” scenario, the “they” you refer to (Labor decision-makers) won’t be the same people they are now.
It will take time, but it will happen, in my opinion. If we’re all still PBing in 2020, and it hasn’t happened, I’ll admit you were wrong and I was wrong.
(BTW, still not convinced the “dead Liberals” scenario is the one that will pan out. But what I am saying is if it does, then the Labor brand will become inhabited by people with quite different views to the current residents, and that will change the ALP dramatically).
“I’ll admit you were right and I was wrong.”
I do not belive that the libs would ever pick Abbott. Can they really be this out of touch?
CC @49,
I certainly agree with the first and last sentences of your post. It’s the bits in between that I am less certain about.
Oh, and the third sentence, totally agree with that.
Chris Curtis Says:
August 5th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
There is no recession. There will be no recession. Labor will win the next Commonwealth election with more seats than it has now. Just wait for the real reform of the tax system and the real education revolution and the real federal-state reform, to mention just three vote-winners coming up.
And Chris I have a bridge for sale that would be just perfect for you!!!
Hmmmm with the ETS has come the virtual death, thankfully, of the ‘all spin no substance BS’ in various blogs about the place.
madk
The anyone but Talcum clan is about 50% of the Fibs, if they can get their next candidate over the line after Brenda, it could be anyone. But The Mad Monk is my bet.
ruawake,
You could be right. Tragic.
Labor will be, or already is the party of business?
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/02/saturday-forum-labor-whose-party-is-it.html
Every time you’re wondering take a look at the the Gillard confidence index…
That infrastructure fund won’t attract many donations will it?
onimod,
Good article, very informative.
is rudd being uber machievellian by sending
1the elder statesman dolly (dont laugh) o/s to deprive the Fibs of guidance and stability
2the elder statesman ‘tank engine’ (damn fine fella) to deprive the nats of same.
because either way,it is proof of rudd now owning the middle ground and being two steps ahead of the game.
au contraire Jovial Monk – the spin has only just begun.
Good to hear Turnbull still blaming Swan for all the interest rate rises this year. He thinks he can’t stop Westpac and ANZ from raising their rates, but he does think Swan can force the RBA to raise them?
I hope we get much more of this sensible economic analysis from him.
Dyno,
We’ll see. I’ll be around to take the egg on face if anything I’ve said turns out to be unfulfilled.
ESJ,
I don’t need a bridge, but how much do you want?
61 gusface, sorry I have to laugh.
Grog
I try
OK, my two bob’s worth…
The only hope Costello had was if the RBA put interest rates up and then he could step in and “take control”, deny Climate Change and all the rest of the fanboy stuff that the contributors from The Blog which Shall Be Nameless appear to expect. Now that it looks like interest rates are going down, Costello doesn’t have a leg (peg or otherwise) to stand on.
Pretty soon we’re going to see that Labor has got it right in the Budget with the tax cuts and, in conjunction with the RBA, our economy will pull out of this international credit mess sooner than other countries.
The Libs will claim, naturally, that it is all their doing, getting the settings just right, pre-election, for recovery in 2008 a la surviving the Asian meltdown of the last decade. Labor will be able to argue that if they’re to be blamed for the rises, they can take the credit for the falls. Once interest rates start falling, it’ll be
There are a few still glowering with blackened brows about Recession, wishing it upon us, but that’s not going to happen. Our economy is too strong for that. Thanks Peter, for not dropping the ball, now pi$$ off hairy legs, and pick on someone your own size. Gnats, anyone?
We are about to turn the corner and strike out in front of the rest of the World. It is up to Rudd to tap the new optimism and start telling us how good we, in particular, can be, rather than how rotten things, in general, are.
I do not agree with those who are writing off Unions. Unions do not prosper when the economy is running well and people are in jobs. Then they do not seem relevant to people who do not want to spend money on union dues. This situation reverses in more challenging times.
There is a place for Unions in a society that wants to remain fair and equitable in the Workplace. But their place is NOT running a Government. Labor has done the right thing in their dealings with Unions, at least in the last few decades.
The central thrust of Workchoices was to destroy unions due to prohibiting of collective bargaining. Those that think that the Rodent’s workchoices was not far from Labor’s position are missing this point. Also the Safety Net of course was only added by the Libs under duress and is not their true belief.
Workers will always be the main part of Labor’s demographics. I cannot see them vacating this area and loosing the votes. Labor will always deal with business because that is where the nation’s jobs are generated. This “dealing with business” can perhaps be mistaken for Labor becoming the “business party”. You will also find that good unions will always have the well being of business in mind for the same reason – business generates jobs. They will not want to kill “the goose that lays the golden egg”. But they will still persue the interests of their members, sometimes aggressively.
I do not see a longterm future for The Libs. One of the reasons is their demographics are ageing, but more importantly the far right is gaining/has gained ascendency. These people only care about their own power and zeal for their own cause, even at the expense of the overall party. They, more than anyone else, are responsible for the decline of this party in recent years. Wherever they go, over time, they seem to destroy overall and not build up. They are closer to a cult than a real political movement. You have only got to be aware of people like Akerman and Bolt to see that.
Bushfire Bill what are you talking about? Nelson has already complained about interest rates going down and how it’s the sign of a bad Government.
You definitely can’t call that trying to have it both ways can you? If they go up you’re damned… if they go down you’re damned. I presume Nelson would like them to stay where they are now? If so, exactly where does he want them?
Political opportunism of the worst kind.
Thank God for Grocery Watch and Fuel Watch – Thank you Mr Rudd.
I’m with CC I do not think we will be in recession in the next 2 years. Australia GDP is still growing, although slowing but not enough to make it into negative territory. This last 2 weeks has seen an injection of around 1 billion dollars into the economy via the $600 per child handed to each family, haven’t people in here noticed all the shops having large ‘Toy Sales’. Our local Target was full of people spending their bonus, with kids in tow.
Besides China and India are still growing and buying our dirt.
Woolies and Wesfarmers will be rightly quaking in their boots.
69 LTEP – do you have a link? Would love to read that (I don’t doubt you, but would love to send the link to a few mates).
70 ESJ – you have a problem with unit pricing?
I know, been hearing Turnbull’s spin all afternoon
LTEP @ #69,
Oh he did?
So did Shanahan yestwrday, saying the electorate will be “angry and annoyed” at a reversal of RBA policy on interest rates.
Doubt whether that will stick, though. All people will know is that rates are coming down, just like Swanee said they should.
Note also on the tax cuts: these were Howard tax cuts originally, with Labor adpoting them. When the cuts looked like poison, you couldn’t find a Lib to say anything nice about them. Expect them now to rename them the “Howard-Costello Tax Cuts”, seeking to bask in the glory.
Poor fools. Too late, toooooo late.
LTEP, heres the link for Nelsons whinge lol.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24132684-5005962,00.html
“That was always Mr Rudd’s plan to slow the economy,” Dr Nelson said.
“And now the Reserve Bank is in a position, in looking forward, where it is so concerned about the state of the Australian economy that it’s forecasting there may be room to reduce interest rates in the future.”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24132684-1702,00.html
This to me, reeks of political stupidity… he wants to get press complaining about the chances of rates coming down? In other words he wants rates to stay where they are or to go up.
Doug,
So you think the Libs are going to die (which is possible, and I concede there is much truth in your comments about the Liberal Right).
What do you think business will do, then? Stay out of the political process altogether? I just can’t see it.
Classic business strategy is to take over the competitor that has a better product than you. If the Liberal product is (as you think) to be permanently rejected by the public, then why wouldn’t business just try to take over Labor?
It’s not a matter of Labor dealing with business, it’s a matter of Labor becoming a party that is run by business. Which I think is a likely consequence of the Liberals dying.
Still, as I said to ron earlier, I’ll happily admit to being wrong in 10-12 years time if it hasn’t happened.
And maybe the Libs won’t die after all. History isn’t linear. Just because the last seven years or so have seen the Liberal tide ebbing, it doesn’t necessarily follow that this will continue. But sure, they’ll have to tame the Right if they are to reverse the current trend.
More than Grocery Watch Eddy, and Peter Martin was upbeat about the Grocery Watch website being very useful indeed!
Best way to get prices down, break up Woolies & Coles and encourage other retailers to open up here.
Oh yeah Jovial Monk – the Feds are putting on the big bold policy moves – do they actually believe in anything or is it all about appearances?
Its embarrasing really that there is such a shallow policy agenda to this lot.
77 LTEP, I guess Nelson and Turnbull are betting people prefer inflation to a “slowdown”. Or they’re in favour of inflation – which is what we would have more of it f the economy didn’t slow down.
If rates start comming down by the end of the year (which they will IMO) by 2010 you think anyone will care about the last 7 months? SOP long as there is no recession, the ALP will cruise – the slowdown we had to have is hardly a winning slogan for Turnbull.
Last November did anyone think about what happened in 2005-6?
Nope.
the election is a looooong way off.
Jovial
and allow a level playing field for the tier two guys
(iga etc)
and the farmers-more buyers less price ahem agreement
and the transport companies etcetera etcetera
OK, that just can’t be true. Even Brendon wouldn’t actually say that would he?… It’s gotta be a dodgy report.
He wouldn’t… would he?
78 Dyno
Demographics is against the Fibs though, and they are doing NOTHING to attract young voters, are turning them off in fact.
I am not waiting on Grocery Watch, buying my food at the Central Market and Wayville Farmers Market. Buy meat or veges at supermarkets? {shudder}
Eddie Singe Gun.
Read -
http://www.accc.gov.au/content/index.phtml/itemId/838251/fromItemId/3737
Then come back and give us your considered views.
81 Grog
We were worried about WorkChoices
JM,
The Right has damaged the Liberal brand, no question.
It could be that the brand dies, but that the sort of things the Liberal Party has traditionally stood for (not neo-conservatism) continue to be advocated by an ongoing party.
The name of that ongoing party: most likely the Australian Labor Party.
William,
Are you still going ahead with the privatisation?
And William do you have a “scoring” system for posters? Will you be disclosing your “scoring” system?
88 dyno
Yeah, likely. Read somewhere ALP is now about where Menzies was in 50s, centrist with a bit of a leftwing.
We didn’t get there by accident, but thanks to Hawke & Keating making brave and momentous decisions. Rudd will continue that in his cautious style.
You lot need to find your Hawke and/or Keating. Put it that way Pouty Pete would be a disaster–policy lazy. As I have said, I have bet $10 that J. Bishop will lead the Fibs at the next election. She is weird but, but occasionally makes sensible statements, e.g. leading Emo Man from his turn on the ETS policy.
ESJ: huh?
Umm, ESJ, if you were PM right now what would be your top three or four big policy agendas and what would be your broad policies/programs for each? Your pot shotting is quite intriguing and I would be curious to know what you would do if you were in the driver’s seat.
signed
curious
William I read your comments at the PollBludger Sister Site.
You will recall upon your request I laid off commenting on Kirri R .
I was not without sore provocation including mocking comments about my mother making a mistake in not having an abortion.
Of course I dont claim to be a saint but I would like to know how exactly I am worse than Kirri R, I think its a reasonable question.
I thought Turnbull was going to start blaming the Labor if rates went down the way he was talking.
I think they need to change track and start putting things on the global economy – they could blame their inflation on it and rate rises and falls. At least they can get rid of some of the blame and remove some of the accolades to Labor.
But then – as noted before, if they don’t have anything to do with the economy then what are they good for? CC? ETS? They have nothing to sell.
Turnbull as a moderate is likely to be the most acceptable to Australians, apart from his off-putting style; but he would be nagged and nit-picked all the while by the Right anytime he looked like moving to the left too much – he would be wearing manacles or risked being undermined. The hard right may be willing to self destruct and lose elections rather than give up their dreams.
Edward StJohn
It may be a reasonable question. Just posted in the wrong place.
Forget it WB… He wasn’t catching anything. So like all good fisherman, he’s changed hooks and is testing different baits
Scoring? What are the criteria? Obviously the ability to to back flips is needed, what else? Dismount?
And months after the alleged event – get over it.
Oh my Lord.
This thread has to be one of the most cringe-worthy ALP wankfests I’ve ever seen.
ESJ still interested, actually, in a response to mine @ 93. Am genuinely curious.
A-C
Please enlighten us, what is in error? What do you think is happening? What are your views?
ESJ, it is my judgement that you behave provocatively with greater frequency and intensity than KR. You are entitled to an alternative opinion. I seem to remember the abortion comment came from another person who I then proceeded to ban, for which I received a very great deal of criticism.
Better than a cringe-worthy LNP wankfest.., of which we are seeing a lot lately.
Reading LNP supporters on other blogs shows that most are hoping for one thing – the ALP to stuff up the economy. That is it, nothing else. Not policy, quality leadership, visions, change, fixing up problems, just hoping the ALP will make lots of errors.
I suspect the LNP may also have this tactic at present.
Good luck with that.
jovial Monk @ 85, i was at the central market today, i bought a HUGE garlic metwurst –about 4 ft {direct from the Barossa} a big piece of jarlsburg, some pickled vegies and roast capsicum in oil along with Italian bread and fresh lettuce, tomatos and cucumber, yum-guess what i’m munching on right now — to be finished off with a bag of salted cashews fresh from the nut stall, food of the gods, mind it’s back to a normal dinner tomorrow night.
Dyno
It is partly a guessing game projecting into the future but I do think there will always be a right wing rump to which big business seems to be attracted to. I can see many small “l” Libs deserting and going to Labor if they keep hold of the centre ground and do not allow Unions to regain an undue position of influence in the political process. Small business will follow. The stereotype left – right view we have had will pass into history, except for those on the far right or far left. The centre will become a much “broader church”.
Small business supporting Labor is not the same as them running Labor. Most people are workers and Labor could not desert these voters, especially after having gained the “swinging ones”. If Labor holds to these people it is impossible for them to allow business(big or small) to run the party.
Lobby groups are a different matter. This is where Business will try to pressure the Government. But philosophically big business will stay with the far right, while small business can fit with the new Labor.
It leaves some room at the Left. Perhaps one day the Greens may get an economic policy and mature politically and become a force in this area.
Who knows? We can only project with what we know now and present trends. A Global War, a Global Depression, a exponential worsening of CC or anything we may not have heard of could change the whole picture. Politics is dynamic and I would expect, along with the rate of Global changes in other areas that politics will change a lot faster from now on. The old patterns of political parties will not serve us any longer.
One thing for sure in a democracy(and we hope we stay that way) parties that will not adapt and therefore no longer serve the needs of the people in a changing world will simply die. No party is sacred, not the Libs, nor Labor for that matter.
103 William – I agree you did ban the poster. Which I appreciated.
I think provocation is a question of the type and quality. I have regrettably succumbed to mere adversarialism at times but you know generally I havent attacked the man other than with 2 posters – Kirri R (who I think is a special case) and Socrates a couple of weeks ago for a when did you stop beating your wife line of attack.
In the other case I think mocking disability and violent language the denizen of the sister site takes the cake.
Boer War -
Top policy items: -
1. Negative Income Tax
2. Eliminate most tax deductions and have a sole flat rate of tax probably 35%
3. Up foreign aid to 1% of GDP
4. No one should be homeless period – not an expensive problem to fix.
Although William,
I am bemused for a blog on which I have not ever posted I am a regular topic of conversation.
Such is life I guess.
ESJ @ 108 Thank you. I simply don’t understand what the first one means. I am agnostic on the second one – I don’t really understand the ins and outs of it. I would be happy with 3, but would probably support higher percent, because as a nation we are very wealthy and can afford it. And I agree wholeheartedly with four.
read the headline of this article and then read on and find the tax is’nt being leveed on luxury cars yet, the main cause of the drop in sales is the petrol price and the tighter economy, sheez surely the meeja could at least try to be a bit more factual.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=609359
A-C
“This thread has to be one of the most cringe-worthy ALP wankfests I’ve ever seen”
what was the least cringe-worthy one?
Negative income tax is the idea that rather than pay pensions or social security you pay everyone the poverty level of income and recoup it through the tax system for those who earn more. In this way you avoid welfare traps were welfare recipients pay high marginal tax rates for getting work AND you avoid a large bureacracy to adminster the welfare system.
Doug @ 107,
Your conclusion is spot-on.
Sorry, way OT, but the WA Libs have to be kidding themselves if they think Buswell’s long-overdue resignation gives them a snowball’s at the next State election. The electorate won’t forget that a majority of the remaining Libs voted twice to retain Buswell as Opposition leader, even after his “character flaws” were laid bare. They are indelibly stained by their apalling lack of judgement, and deserve what’s coming to them in the next few months.
ESJ, why not drag up a hoary old chestnut from someone who is probably dead and gone. If it was such a great idea, how come your idols and former Treasurers Howeird and $weets didn’t implement this brilliant if archaic idea you support?
The last time I heard a version of the Nit being proposed was Pauline Hanson during an election campaign.
A-C
This thread has to be one of the most cringe-worthy ALP wankfests I’ve ever seen
Yaaaaawwwwwwwnnn.
113
Edward StJohn
I think that is by far the most sensible thing you have ever said on this blog, and I agree more-or-less completely, especially about the high marginal tax rates for those trying to move from welfare to work, fixing that would easily be the single biggest possible improvement for the long term prospects of that group (though there will always be some who are not able to work in any significant sense).
It certainly is OT, Ozymandias, and there’s a WA state politics thread running here.
Sorry William. Ta
ESJ
Are there any countries with Negative Income Tax? If so, how has it fared there?
Doug
#68
“Workers will ALWAYS be the main part of Labor’s demographics. I cannot see them vacating this area and loosing the votes. Labor will always deal with business because that is where the nation’s jobs are generated. This “dealing with business” can perhaps be mistaken for Labor becoming the “business party”. You will also find that good unions will always have the well being of business in mind for the same reason – business generates jobs. They will not want to kill “the goose that lays the golden egg”. But they will still persue the interests of their members, sometimes aggressively.
I do not see a longterm future for The Libs.”
I agree with all of the above It was th main basis of my difffering view earlier with Dyno It was also th basis of why I previousdly said here that Labor (a workers based Party) philosophicaly is very different from th consevatives/Liberals ( a business/free enterprise based party) and Greens 9started as an environment Party excl WA greens)
Workers hav been an part integral part of Labor since 1891 Neither th Democrats , th Greens , or th old workers party will take this voter ground ,
and you obviouly agree as above Therefore Labors fundamentel policys will always be geared that way re medicare , tax equity , hospitals , schools , welfare etc both Liberals , Greens & Democrats ‘wish” in hope otherwise , but this politcal reality will remain globilisation has simply changed th methad & mechanics to achieve Labor objectives
Future of th Libs , both you and Dyno paint poor futures , whereas I think th Libs rump will stay as is when Labor was out of power for a long time people predicted it would die also , but Partys formed so long ar resiliant you think “many small “l” Libs deserting and going to Labor ” Well whilst having some doubts , you ar correct thats theoreticaly possible without Labor changing a single policy !! , because apart from Parents influence & idealology against Unions they should be voting Labor anyway (th Libs do not look after them & most ar workers That would make labor over 50% on first prefs & unbeatable
Your scenario is extremely positive for Labor Whilst mine staying where they ar is not quite as good , but makes defeating Labor dificult as th Libs and Greens hav nowhere presently to expand to It hasbeen very obvious that Labor strategists know there is , and hav successdfully put itinto action with Labor holding all 6 States governments nd both Territories governments for 10 years now , so no reason to change what they hav already Federaly Howard was wily , Labor campained poorly and selected poor leaders , but Labor learned for 2007 campaign & it was a replica of there successful State ploys of isolating th other 3 Partys
Steve @ 116
Why don’t you support the negative income tax idea?
“i bought a HUGE garlic metwurst –about 4 ft, … to be finished off with a bag of salted cashews”
Man, that is a big hunger attack.
106
judy barnes
yeah often make a ‘weird’ meal like that from market goodies.
You been to Wayville Farmers Market?
Interestingly the ASX target rate tracker has 100% prediction for interest rate drop next month:
http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm
Boerwar it’s an old rightwingers trick to derail a thread. Next he’ll be trying to prove the earth is flat.
Rod theres eight of us here sharing–want some?
FINNS
#45
“Amigo Ronnie – [Libs win electons over Labor generally by pinching ‘labor type’ suporters , usualy when labor st.ffs th econamy]
You post fine , Labors st.ff was 75 & 1994/95 where Labor accepted th Reserve’s Bernie Fraser’s advice & made things worse , Amigo 2010 will be no problem for sir Kevin as you indicate
.
FINNS
#44
“A superior economic manager was their only mantra. If that is gone, zip.
Let see what is left: CC, Environment, Water, Education, Infra-structure, Health, Reconciliation, Immigration, Defense, National security, Foreign Affairs, Housing, IR – Labor has got these WELL covered.”
Absolutely amigo
No had dinner thanks Judy,
We do the same on Sundays, down to the markets, goat cheese, homos, carrot, beetroot and other dips, turkish bread and sausage.
mmmmmmm metwurst. That takes me back.
128 ron
think you will find Keating pleaded on bended knees to Bernie Fraser to drop interest rates
129
rod
how do you cook the homos?
Rod
whats the we bit?
ESJ
Why am I so naive?
I asked myself “Where has ESJ come up with such a radical proposal as NIT?”
Sounded like a Friedman theory. But it’s clearly politically impossible, hence my question above, but I thought you wouldn’t make a suggestion without at least some support in history. Hmmm, I needed a politician with two attributes.
(1) What politician would ESJ be happy to be associated with despite being on a sure-fire loser?
(2) What politician would be remotely capable of getting an idea like that up?
So I looked it up. What a bloody surprise!! Richard M. Nixon. Who else could it have been!!!
“Let see what is left”
The monarchy, the queen and country, the’ve lost their exclusive hold on the god bit, so that is all that is left.
Jovial
Wrap them in banana skins and palm leaves, lightly turn on a rottisiere, basting with peanut oil occasionally, can also stuff them with fruit.
For ESJ and others, who want to do something about homelessness, this piece of information:
“Strategies to address domestic violence – the single largest cause of homelessness and the most common reason women and children become homeless. ”
from this site:
http://www.homelessnessaustralia.org.au/site/mediacentre.php
may be considered interesting and relevant.
Stuff a fruit with. . .no won’t go there
Can you have an ALP wankfest with a 4ft garlic metwurst? Perish the thought.
Meanwhile, I’m interested in the debate here about whether we’ll have a recession or not. I don’t agree with those who can’t believe we’ll have a recession. I think it’s quite possible, but it’s likely to be mild. The definition of a technical recession is just two consecutive quarters of shrinking economy (I shy away from the oxymoron “negative growth”). We could certainly have that, given the way the housing sector has stopped building anything, and signs of reduced consumer spending. But the economy is so strong, and unemployment so low (with labour shortages in many areas) that we could probably cope with a little recession without vast numbers being thrown out of work.
New Zealand is now in recession. And so is Denmark. More countries will follow. But there’s a difference between an economy shrinking for a few months, and a major recession, where there’s mass unemployment and business collapses.
As I’ve mentioned previously, there are a few companies here laying off staff, and the slump in resources stocks will have to (at least slightly) slow the growth
of the mining industry, and delay a few projects.
More recessions around the world (particularly in the US) would reduce oil demand and bring down fuel prices here and elsewhere, and lower interest rates here would bring down the dollar, and thus boost our exports, and help save a few jobs. So what you’d lose on the swings you’d gain on the roundabouts.
So I guess I’m saying a mild recession is possible, but Australia would come out of it quite well (and well before the next Federal election).
Eddie, are you aware that the sort of ‘negative income tax’ you are advancing has been operational in some Scandinavian, with ‘old terms’ socialist leanings, governments for some time? I can recall proposing something very similar in the 70’s, to deafening silence. If you go all socialist on us, A.C. will have apoplexy. Would do evil grin, if I knew how to do it.
Jovial Monk
#131
“128 ron
think you will find Keating pleaded on bended knees to Bernie Fraser to drop interest rates”
You ar 100% correct Jovial Monk , my poor/loose wording Meant to say Keating had to accept Frasers “advice” (no choice) , although Fraser’s claim was govt had let inflation out & untill he saw it all th way back in , he wasn’t going to lower rates
And Labor got hit by Howard over it This is memory stuff only , was that th history there
Jovial
“think you will find Keating pleaded on bended knees to Bernie Fraser to drop interest rates”
I read that article on Peter Martins blogspot also and was a bit concerned.
Firstly that the reserve is supposed to be independent yet Keating wanted Bernie to do what he asked, that he didn’t may show they are independent.
However what was a worry was Bernies reason in that one member only of the board was for not dropping rates and actually increased them later, yet even though only one member wanted this the rest of the board went along to preserve unaminity.
It is a worry that one member, who may could be anti-govt could set rates that the libs used so effectively in 1996, the five minutes of economic sunshine.
Generally speaking Diogenes, Richard M.Nixon advocated many progressive policies, the Clean Air Act and the Americans with Disabilities Act were his.
HSO – As Deng Xiaoping said it doesnt matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice.
No Steve.. (rest of post self-deleted as provocative)
142 rod – I don’t think the RBA was independent at that point. only happened in 96?
Goodness. Negative income tax. Does this mean that if you want to sit around on your arse, the government will pay you a poverty wage? Would there be any requirement that you look for work, or could you get sit-down money? If you knocked back work, would you still get your poverty wage? Well, I guess you would under ESJ’s plan, because there’d be no “welfare bureaucracy” to stop it being paid!
I can hardly see a Liberal Party introducing such a policy for single mothers, for a start…they need to be sent out to work, preferably far from home, doing overnight shifts, to earn the money to pay for child-care, for which they can get a rebate! well, at least that seemed to be the thinking of the previous government, which ESJ adored.
Spot on, rod!
Ron @141: This might help the memory…….
http://business.theage.com.au/business/keating–fraser-starcrossed-mates-20080801-3oom.html
Interesting article.
140,
Oh yes Antonio every night I take out my copy of Van Onselen’s book and shed a quiet tear about what has passed us by … lol.
Grog
Here is the link http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/08/unfinished-business-paul-keatings.html
“Insecure, and feeling his way into the Reserve Bank job, Fraser refused to act on Keating’s pleas.
‘I said to Bernie, “We’ve got to be quick and flexible. This is the time to go into reverse.” Keating says.
‘But there was on the bank board at that time a standout against this. I’ve got the picture of him still fixed in my mind: he wore black suits and looked like a bad priest. I said to Bernie, “Take no notice of him, he has become an old fool”.
‘But Bernie wanted to keep his board in unison. He said he had to put a high priority on holding the board as one. And I wanted to strengthen Bernie’s faith in himself as an independent central banker.’
Keating says Fraser betrayed him a second time in 1994 when Australia was coming out the recession and the headline inflation figure nudged up a few points.
Fraser rammed up interest rates by 0.75 percentage points in October, by 1.00 percentage points in October and by 1.00 percentage points in December.”
The reserve bank was independent then, but should one person the board decide policy.
Though as a commentator says maybe its Keating trying to rewrite history, or as I mentioned, one anti-govt type bringing down a govt.
jovial, yup been there often, when the kids were young every friday evening we’d pack them into the back of the station wagon with some of their mates {no seat belts in those days} and do the rounds of the market for our weeks supplies and then take them for a meal to the gouger cafe, only kitchen tables and chairs in those days, mama had charge of the kitchen and the meals were original italian home cooking and they were enormous, we always got a warm welcome there with our wall to wall kids, gee those were the days, i can imagine todays grandies raising an eyebrow at me and saying “well really nan” if i suggested it as an outing nowadays, it was really the highlight of the week, you cant beat the sights and smells of the central market.
Grog, it’s got to be german garlic metwurst from the Barrossa Valley.
off topic,sorry William, i’ll pull my head in now.
Um Antonio I would rather people have money in their pocket then worry about some rorting the system, and to worry about rorting the system you need an army of bureacrats to check and protect the system which blows out the cost.
$300 a week hardly sets up anybody for a life of luxury. You lack heart if you are oppossed to that. You’ve probably never experienced a set back or unemployment I guess.
antonio, I suspect things have gotten a bit more convoluted than the classical definition of recession, as I suspect The Piping Shrike’s analysis suggests the political game has moved on from the usual political analysis – leaving the O.O. and many MSM commentators sloshing around in yesterday’s papers, so to speak.
Things aren’t as they used to be either politically or economically, the LP’s base voters are dying out and they have, as I understand it, almost no appeal to younger voters. The global economy is an extremely difficult beast to get a grip on, with the U.S. a basket case, courtesy of George the moron and the venal lenders and rescuers. Chuck in the planet doing things that spook the insurance companies, the first VCAT ruling today that said you can’t build within 2 metres of the shore, and you’ve got a lovely little recipe for who the hell knows what’s going to happen.
Hold on to your hats, it’s going to be a hell of a ride.
#141
An interesting quote from Keating. But Keating is a bit disingenuous to blame Bernie for all his woes. There are other options for slowing the economy, including cutting government spending and introducing new taxes, and keating didn’t want to touch them. It was easier to leave all the responsibility to the Reserve Bank, and let the RBA get all the odium. However, voters didn’t blame the Reserve Bank for high interest rates, they blamed Keating.
I remember buying a house when interest rates were 17 per cent, but business rates were considerably higher, and that’s what killed the economy. Most of us could cope with the extraordinarily high mortgage rates, because house prices were much lower then than they are now, but it was too much for business (ie factories, shops and farms) to face higher and higher repayments.
While Keating did much good for the economy, his use of his beloved “levers” was much less sophisticated than either of major parties would practice now. We’ve had more experience in an open market economy since Keating opened it up. And perhaps that will help the current government handle this downturn better than Labor handled the last one.
ESJ
your a hypoocrite
Ron
do you think the fibs will last or will demographics consign them to the dustbin of history
Rod
well was it we or just you having a pigout
Sondeo
#147
“OF DOING HIM IN by an excessive interest rate policy in 1994.”
thanks for that Sondero That line Paul believing Fraser ‘of doing him in’ comes back now
And good evening to you too Gusface.
Our GDP is about $1 trillion, transfer payments are about $100 billion currently, negative income tax would cost about $150 billion but a lot would be recouped through the tax system – bottom line affordable to end poverty in this country.
Jovial
Keatings experience may be why Rudd makes reserve bank deliberations public, makes it harder for one person to set the agenda, and now decisions have to be publically justified.
That’s what you meant by spot on? or was it the recipe for homos?
Gusface
It is we, but I get the goats cheese and sausages.
Kirribilli Removals got banned from this site?
A shame!
He’s actually not all that well at the moment!
ESJ: I disagree with you, but I respect your right to offer an opinion! This blog would be boring if it was solely an “ALP Wankfest”.
And, for those interested, Lindsay Tanner is currently appearing on the ABC Book Show.
#152 Actually ESJ I was attempting to be sarcastic. It tends to be the Liberal Party that “lacks heart” and constantly demands “welfare cheats” and “dole bludgers” be brought to justice.
As a single parent, I’ve had plenty of dealings with Centrelink and the Family Assistance Office, and am well aware of the welfare maze!
But I do think that giving everybody $300 a week is counter-productive.
I think the greatest outrages are the pathetic wages paid to apprentices, and the miserable allowances given to students. One of my daughters wants to be an apprentice, but instead, she’s working a tedious factory job because it pays so much more. This is not the way a clever country should be working. University students can’t get housing in the capital cities, need to work extra jobs to fund their study. Governments fail to fund enough uni places for doctors, vets, scientists – nowonder we have a labour shortage.
I think education and training need reform long before welfare and tax do.
ESJ
in other words “welfare for the rich”
say one thing,do another… wonder which former lib pm did that ESj
Rod
“It is we, but I get the goats cheese and sausages.”
too much information
Keating got rid of the levers, because they never worked properly.
Edward, pusses aside, if you design your tax and welfare system properly, it probable should include the sort of negative tax program you and others have suggested.
My view of it is this, everyone in the polity gets the basic wage paid to them above 18 years of age, beyond that the tax system takes over, at the simplest possible level.
Tanner is actually looking very “cool” on Auntie1. is there anybody on the other side that can look as cool as Tanner?
Sorry for being so “heartless”, but I don’t think people should get the “basic wage’ just because they exist. There’s little incentive to work at a shit job (and someone has to do them) if you get a basic wage for doing nothing. The biggest problem in the welfare system is that it’s so hard to get out of, because those who try to move out of the workforce often end up worse off, once they start paying tax and losing benefits. It’s particularly unfair on mothers re-entering the workforce, who may have to pay outrageous childcare costs.
We need a better basic wage, and better training to get people into meaningful and valuable jobs. If you can’t raise the basic wage, raise the minimum tax threshhold dramatically.
It’s an interesting debate, ESJ, and I do appreciate that you’ve raised it. I’m a bit sick of governments offering tax cuts as the answering to everything. If they take tax from us in the first place, why bother just giving it back to us? I’d rather it be usefully spent on health, education and, yes, welfare.
progressive
#159
“A shame”
No , William as usual made a correct call That Kirri consistently had ignored th moderator William’s very reasonable rulings , so he (rightly) got banned
Not being disengenuous posting that were you ? you ar on th same site & talk I assume I actualy found th guy happy to throw abuse , but whinged to th ref like a sook , when he got even a tiny bit back , drives Moderators mad those types Anyway wish him well and tell him to watch how he lies in bed , otherwise problem becomes a back daylight one
Ok -
ESJ -this is possibly the last time I will ever engage with you.
You have caused more upset and division than is reasonable on a site that is primarily about politics, but also crosses the divide into friendships that evolve from regular connection and correspondence with individuals, and that result in an understanding and appreciation of each other that is way above what happens in the MSM etc.
You have had the same chance as every other person here, no matter what their political differences and opinons ar,e to create those relationships.
instead you have gone out of your way to trash and belittle them .
And to some extent you have succeeded. there are people here who are seriously upset, and yet you remain blameless.
Well done
ron your a true gentleman for posting that 167.
I too have no ill-will to Kirri. He just wasnt cut out for the cut and thrust of blogging. He’s probably happier on the island now.
Okay, thank you everybody. I have NOT banned KR.
#109 ESJ – [I am bemused for a blog on which I have not ever posted I am a regular topic of conversation] – what have i done to deserve this?
Lindsay Tanner is the man, damn he was great on that Jennifer Byrne Book Show. I am frequently impressed with his TV gigs.
Jen,
I think the topic is stale and should end. Please promise to leave me out of your island posts too – its seriously weird to be discussed in another forum in which I dont participate.
You go your way, Ill go mine. Clearly William has attempted to be even handed (to the point of doing me down on the island posts today), so be it. The moderator/ owner sets the rules.
ESJ: You’re having another go at Kirribilli: not appreciated! He’s a far better blogger than me.
And Kate Ellis was on Good News Week last night on Ch 10 (though it is actually recorded at the ABC’s Ultimo studios – how ironic). She was good as well.
I don’t expect anyone from the Oppositions doing similar shows.
Ron 121
The great divide in society economically is workers vs employers. That division has been around for centuries and in fact ever since people stopped “hunter gathering” and began to work for other people. Whatever happens, I cannot see that changing anytime soon.
It is true what has changed is the Global dimension. But workers are still workers and they still have to be protected if the society is to remain fair and equitable. Business also must be healthy if there is to be employment but also for the wealth of the nation. But Labor will not cross the line to become a party belonging to business. After all, the true wealth of a political party is not measured in donations, but in voters and that is who has the say. Labor on just these logical grounds alone will always be the party of workers.
Yes there is a sharp divide economically and that will remain. Pholosophically yes between big business and Labor, but not really so much between Labor and small “l” Libs these days.
Libs these days.
I forgot. drinking a very nice white wine
Doug Are you serious?
Are we talking about the same ALP that raised millions from developers/ hotel interests etc etc in NSW?
The party of the workers?
Tanner should be made Treasurer quick smart! A real thinker.
Ron
care to answer my query re demographics and the demise of the fibs
pls
Doug
Labor is now the party of everyman/woman not just the workers
ps Unions BOO
couldnt resist
Hows your union doing gusface? Membership climbing?
5 members
mrs gusface is the organiser
gusface
# 155
“Ron
do you think the fibs will last or will demographics consign them to the dustbin of history”
Gusface I’d be intersted in your view , although maybe a politcal base may influence all our views but as a Labor suporter i believe both major Parties hav solid bases and will survive as close to historically averages in % support ( but increased globilisation as is likely , may change ther emethods how they achieve there existing Policys)
At 2007 Electon , Libs got 47.3% 2PP , only 2.7% from winning since then Sir Kevin has done outstandingley , th Libs hav done very poorly so Polls show 10 to 14% margin , but that was what it was 1 week out from last electon A turnbull or hockey will I think take Libs from ultra consevative to traditional consevative Liberals (and pragmetic) so i see 2PP at 2010 at 45% to 46% , a big Labor win , but 3 years latr could be narrowed somewhat , subject to our conamy’s status
Globally , long term troubled waters , that would support my defense of th Libs future as well Whilst th demographics do not lookk good for th Libs , I feel they ar a product of “young Agenda items/policy that th Libs ar totally out of court on now : ie. eg CC (Libs will wake up) , environwent (ditto) , W/C (time heals based on politcal history) , econamy now if a downturn (young jobs get lost & some young will swings back to libs ) So all of these factors would improve future young Lib votes & there future demographics , and a part of that current demographics and young ‘lost’ will retrn to Libs
As a Labor person , I’d like 65/70%% 2PP and Libs finished as Doug and Dyno think will hapen , but my opinion is different despite my “wishs” , so hav to go with my views not heart
What do you think Gusface ?
btw
if you remember i joined the twu just before the last election
though have only paid dues
that ad for big boofy blokes to go checkout dress shops just tipped me over
though i still cant figure why they turned out the lights at the end
why be shy eh esj?
Doug
#176
hav JUST seen your post AFTER my reply to Gusface , so did not include/account for whatever views you stated in your post , will send reply to yours
“Tanner is actually looking very “cool” on Auntie1. is there anybody on the other side that can look as cool as Tanner?”
Bronnie , amigo
Ron
re the fibs ultimate demise as a major political entity in its present form/structure:
partially poss’s analysis
mostly the current events both federally and state expose a huge rift between the ruling clique and the general members
also personal experiences before the last election and ongoing nefariety lead me to believe they is doomed
gusface do you think party membership actually counts for anything in either party?
Possum made an interesting chart along these lines:
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/vacunder40.jpg
Me and th enemy marsupial rarely agree , but thanks for th link and will closely study it objecticely at this stage Dyno , Gusface & Doug hav both put up good points for there demise
The parties are just brands behind which a machine shelters – neither is a massed based party. In NSW the Labor/ LIberal parties are less than 500 people in either party.
ESJ,
There is only one thing worse than being talked about and that is not being talked about.
SNIP
Progressive
“You’re having another go at Kirribilli: not appreciated! He’s a far better blogger than me”
That wasn’t me you ar talking about but neverthless , first of all your #159 was inaccurate completely , Secondley where did you get that wrong info from ? Thirdly you ar actualy far better , and seem to know more about econamics as he is not fully experienced in that area yet fair enough , and you ar not th showy , so don’t undersell yourself
500? NSW Labor has a bit over 800 delegates at its yearly conference! Labor has about 50,000 members nationally, and about 1/3 of those are in NSW.
Um yes, and ShowsOn many of those delegates are people roped into union delegations who often arent even members of the unions – we are talking friends, wives, husbands, partners etc etc.
Doug
#176
Up to th last 1/2 of your last sentence Doug , your post is my sentiments exactly ! Was not sure whether you ar refferring to “small L” Liberal voters or “small L” Liberl politicans like Andrew Peacock/Ian Mcphee ? (i mention Peacock/McPhee rather than more curent small ‘L’ones (not many) as Peacock/McPhee were Senior Liberal politicans)
IF you ar actualy reffering to th small ‘L’ Liberal voters , I do feel th Liberal Party has ‘forgotten” them & does not reely represent them anymore And I do accept theoertically this voter group could swing to Labor through lack of being represented/disallusionmnt WITHOUT Labor having to change a single policy Is this what you were saying or have I misunderstood that you alrenatively ar talking of th small ‘L’ Liberal philosophy itself , that Peacock and McPhee believed in ?
You can’t be a delegate to a NSW Labor conference without being a Labor member. End of story. If you are part of a union delegation it doesn’t matter, the chosen delegates must be Labor members.
It’s like you can’t make lamingtons at Liberal fundraisers unless you use blue rinse. It is just the rules of the game.
LOL! 500. What’d you do, think up a number and divide it by pi?
The news on global warming is being presented as more pressing and more often and yet the LNP is still twisting and turning in agony trying to present some semblance of an greed position, whilst actually remaining buried in the past with WorkChoices.
Who would have thought Minchin and co could be so blind after a decade of a mythical great Howard govt of cleverness and control? They still lives in Howard’s dream world where there is no CC GW or ETS or if there is ‘who cares’ and WorkChoices MkII is imminent. A world where no one has the right to speak except him and his type.
Some diseases have no cure and can only be left to run their course for health to return. Is Minichin the Flu or Hepatitis?
Rather odd poll at Morgans
“ALP stands to lose five seats in full and half-Senate elections – August 2, 1991″
http://www.roymorgan.com.au/
It’s the same old story with Cossie.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24136039-601,00.html
Have we not heard of this before. I will not challenge Howard, I will not wreck the Party, I want it on a plate, blah, blah, blah.
You can excuse him for not having the ticker to challenge a sitting PM. But no ticker to challenge Brendan Nelson?
Why do they bother with him.
BTW: Brendan Nelson should promise to Cossie that he will serve a full term of the Opp Leader, lose the election and then some 12 months after hand the opp leadership to Cossie.
Gee, Labor just can’t get anything right, can they?
After “talking up” inflation, the threat of a recession now looms because the Reserve Bank (not Labor) has allegedly over-corrected.
I guess you have to be able to believe the Reserves were as “spooked” by Swan’s inflation tough-talk as your average Working Family punter in the burbs was.
It’s all very confusing, and a bit hazy at the moment, but the clue came a few days ago when Shanahan floated the idea that not only are interest rate rises getting the battlers angry and annoyed, but now it’s the interest rate falls that have them hopping mad. Apparently Brendan took up the cudgel and tried that argument on for size as well. Maybe yer Average Joe out there with a passel of screaming kids packed into the back of the Tarrago stuck in a petrol queue just needs certainty?
Well, Mr. and Mrs. Mob will get that in spades from the latest machinations of the Lib illuminati to shoe-horn Cozzie into Nelson’s gig, via the latest plan: a”friendly takeover”. There’ll be bucketloads of guarantees that Cozzie won’t have to work for the job. That’s an essential point: the ex-Greatest Treasurer In The World doesn’t get his hands dirty, ever.
I’m trying to imagine the scenario as laid out in today’s OO: Brendan, I guess, will just pick up the telephone and ask Peter whether he wants to come over for a Leadership barbie, hand him the keys to the Lib policy cabinet when he gets there and give him a few pointers on the mess they’re in…. before trotting off into the sunset, happy at a job well done.
Meanwhile, back at the Labor bunker, the Cabinet will be shuddering with terror at the thought that the game is up. They’ll have no defence against The Great One’s stinging barbs on he economy. Interest rates up, or down… doesn’t matter…Labor have stuffed the economy, and Pete will tell us how.
First there’ll be a few bon mots on the dangers of opening your mouth too long and too loud on inflation. In Liberal World(TM) there never was a problem with inflation. That would mean they’d done something wrong, and we can’t have that. No, it was all Rudd’s mean-spirited attempts to sully the legacy of King John and his faithful Deputy Dawg, Perfect Peter. No matter that inflation actually did rise. This was only because Swanee went off at the mouth and blabbed about the dangers. Our economy is in a wonderful state… except when it isn’t because Wayne’s an L-plate Teasurer. Confused? Just ask Malcolm. He’ll explain it all to you.
Then we’ll hear how the Reserves wet their pants at all this price talk and panicked in a way that never would have happened if the Coalition had still been in office. They raised rates too far, too fast, as a result. Without the steady hand of the economic Mechanic In Chief tweaking the Ferrari, what else could they do? Never mind about oil rising at one stage to $170 a barrel, or the sub-prime crisis from America, they should have remained cool, kept their powder dry and just let the plasma-addicted peons continue to buy, buy, buy their way out of the sure-to-come Recession, just around the corner.
Now the buggers are talking about reducing rates! I mean: how weak is that? An ordinary person reading about this prospect might think that it’s a good thing; that maybe our economy is settling back into a stable phase. No, no, no, no, NO! In the OO’s and the Opposition’s fevered imagination, this is bad, not good at all.
If Peter, the Rock of the economy, can get back in in time, he might be able to take some credit for steadying the tiller. But if he leaves his run too late, things might get better all by themselves and then what would he have to whinge about?
Shanahan, Milne, Maiden and the rest of Team Australian at Chateau Murdoch are shuffling those little square pieces of paper around their fiscal Ouji board so fast lately that it’s amazing they can keep track of the convolutions and permutations of each new layer of “narrative” about how awful the government really is. Once upon a time they used a trowel, making a relatively neat job of it. But now it’s just truckloads of political compost dumped rough on the garden, smoothed over with a shovel, and let the worms do their job. And the worms are turning, nay, writhing in anticipation.
You gotta believe it’s the last throw of the dice for them. Nelson (who has said he has no intention of giving in) hands over to Cozzie (who has said he has no desire to hang around) so that Rudd (who is the most popular PM in history) and his party (which holds a crushing poll lead) can implode over an economy (that seems to be about to recover) that only tanked in the first place because interest rates (which rose 10 times under Cozzie) and petrol prices (that have nothing to do with Australia) went ballistic for a few months, but now everything looks like it’ll be settling down soon. Somewhere in there, too (if you take the Nameless One’s opinion into consideration) will be the Opposition’s stunning announcement that Global Warming is bunk because snow fell on Thredbo (or something) and that we should pollute, pollute, pollute our way out of Recession.
But please, whatever you do, don’t talk the economy down. Don’t for instance write hundreds of articles about how Rudd is scared of the “R” word. Or don’t opine that a downturn is sure as eggs due to Rudd’s policies. Don’t write pieces in the Tele that say Swan “refuses to rule out” a Recession and that means we’re having one. Don’t criticise the Budget tax cuts as “too little, too late.” No, no, no… that would be far to negative. That would be wishing ruin upon ourselves. and wishing ruin on ourselves is entirely the responsibility of Rudd and his band of wreckers.
I mean, there are limits, you know.
“But no ticker to challenge Brendan Nelson?”
I think Costello is worried about negative sentiment associated with him challenging and possibly toppling such a popular leader.
BB, an incisive and brilliant expose.
Excellent piece BB. Spot on.
From a SMH article about an Aussie who’s on the UN panel that approves the Kyoto carbon trading industry:
He argues Australia is in a privileged position because the world is looking for alternatives to burning fossil fuels.
“And guess who has a lot of knowledge and intellectual capital to capitalise on this,” he asks.
“Australia. We do. We really are a clever country. We punch way above our weight when it comes to scientific knowledge, engineering knowledge, engineering renewable energy resources and ideas and technology.
“We haven’t done that well in putting that technology into practice but we have it – we have a lot of answers that we can provide, dare I say sell, to China and India and Indonesia and Malaysia and … all those countries that are wanting to grow and expand and develop. We can tell them how to do it perhaps more cleverly than we did it ourselves.”
And all some cretins want to do is argue about whether we should start doing something about GW in July 2010 or January 2011. Sigh.. But then they’re the same mob that seem to believe all we’re capable of is digging bloody great big holes and shipping the dirt overseas.
BB,
I’m completely bored with Costello!
Will he, won’t he?
At least the Olympics will give the MSM something else to obsess about for the next 2 weeks.
But the real question Progressive is, are you bored with Swan yet?
ESJ 108
I have been busy at my day job lately and only just caught up with this thread. What on earth are you talking about? We have had several run-ins but I don’t believe I have ever made insinuations relating to your or any poster’s partner on this (or any other) blog.
Please specify the instance you are referring to before dragging my name into your defence.
Diogenes, negative income tax as raised on this thread by ESJ is indeed an idea that originated with Milton Friedman but it shouldn’t be automatically dismissed as right wing rubbish on that account. Here in Australia it hasn’t solely been pushed from the lunar right – Ron Henderson’s work had elements of it in particular. If we call it a guaranteed minimum income that sounds left enough? Have a look at this paper (sorry could only find it in PDF) for a catholic social justice endorsement of the sort of libertarian thinking behind Friedman’s proposal : http://catholicsocialservices.org.au/system/files/Mutual_Obligation_Oct_07_0.pdf
- including deploying Friedman to attack the income management components of the NT intervention.
ESJ, it wasn’t Nixon who signed the Americans with Disabilities Act, it was George H. Bush. I think you meant the Rehabilitation Act 1973?
MayoFeral,
Couldn’t agree more: they’re fighting political trench warfare, lobbing grenades and making bayonet charges. Politics here seems to be in permanent election mode. Casualties are high. Gaffes are amplified into major blunders. Avoiding trick questions is “abrogating responsibility”.
Swan, Rudd and Tanner don’t want to talk about “Recession” so they suddenly have “refused to rule it out”. If they mention the word “Recession”, then they’re talking the economy down (but it seems OK for the journalists who are criticising them to talk the economy down, and for Abbott and Turnbull to do so as well).
And then there is Costello. The drama around him reminds me of the movie, El Cid: in the final scene, after Charlton Heston (El Cid) was killed by an arrow, they propped him up on his horse and trotted him out to gee up the troops. Dead, yet not dead: still inspiring the battlers, somehow.
I don’t think they’ve realised it but there’s a Political Uncertainty Principle: the act of observing and commentating on the leadership, destroys the leadership. I’m with Progressive: I’m exasperated with all this Peter The Great talk. OK, so I’ve written reams about it, but only to try to lance the abscess, to overdose on Costello so that I can get back to normal operations.
Interest rates go up… that’s going too far. They go down… the punters will be angry. At who? Well, you’d think the proper target would be the RBA, but in Shanahanland, it’s all down to the government, because they didn’t heavy the RBA enough to keep them low. Of course, Cozzie couldn’t do that either – they put them up 10 times in a row under his watch, including the first of a series of almost unprecedented bank-only rises – but this is conveniently forgotten in the insane fog of war that pervades the battlefield at the moment.
Promised tax cuts are too little. They’re too much. The government are either craven, populist cowards or they’re overly grim eco-bots, betraying their base. They should break a few election promises. Then we can open up a whole new front and have a go at them for hypocrisy.
The critics have to be able to work petrol into this, somehow. So they make up a story about how Rudd was going to reduce petrol prices. They urge Nelson to fabricate a 5c a litre fairy tale, and then go Rudd for breaking a promise he never made (and which, in the fine print, they admit he never made… but the “perception” was there, don’t y’know). Anyway, when international oil shoots up by almost double since the election (for a while at least), they can then attempt to pin it all on Rudd.
They just want people angry and feeling dispossesed of their right to profligate spending. And they also want inflation down. You have to contract the economy to do so, but that just gives them a chance to claim Rudd went too far.
Their political pets stop Fuel Watch in the Senate.. and then damn Rudd for not introducing it! The “accepted” narrative now runs: “Fuel Watch is a failure,” when it hasn’t even gotten out of Committee yet. At any rate, all the whingeing and carping on about Fuel Watch and petrol prices allows them, all the more forcefully, to bring oil into the mix as part of Rudd’s mishandling of the economy. Of course, it appears, if the Coalition was still in power there wouldn’t have been an oil price spike, and there wouldn’t have been a sub-prime crisis. Grocery prices would have stayed low and retailers would be prospering. Pig’s arse, but who cares about the truth any more?
There does appear to be a way out. Rudd should quit the trench warfare and get himself an airforce. Fly over the top of the enemy lines and bomb the bejesus out of them. Get some tanks and run the bastards over. In short, a little hope is needed, backed up by ferocity.
But as long as the Sussex St. cretins are more interested in digging themselves out of trouble with a spoon, they’ll never ask, “What’s that over there?”
It’s a bulldozer, you idiots. Use it.
A war of attrition is one thing. A war of grand manoeuvre is another.
No answer ESJ? Hmmm….
Back to dodgy right-wing economics, the US Treasury has appointed Morgan Stanley to advise ono teh solvency of Fannei Mae and Freddie Mac:
http://news.smh.com.au/business/morgan-stanley-to-aid-us-mortgage-crisis-20080806-3qq1.html
ROTFL! Talk about getting the Fox to advise on Hen care. Morgan Stanley has already declared losses of $9.4Bn US this year on sub-prime deals gone bad. Why them? The only one of teh big five trading firms that avoided heavy losses was Goldman Sachs, yet they aren’t invited? Note that this contract runs out 3 days before the new POTUS takes over in January 2009.
MM @ 211 thank you for the interesting link.
Maybe all of the hoopla in the MSN about Williwonteshouldegiveme has achieved its purpose of deflecting the media away from the incompetence of the LNP over CC. I believe his Super matures about now and he has had a brief glimpse at what is happening in LaborLand and will decide that the pace is too hot even if he is in a breezeway in his hammock.
There are after all quite a few things happening that the MSM could follow up on with a report but unfortunately they would take all of the sting out of their vitriolic attacks on PM and Swanee.
These are but a few of the things that are happening out there at the moment and are probably causing the headless chook look alike that is the current LNP.
Federal Labor’s Plan For Older Australians, People With Disabilities And Carers
Federal Labor’s Volunteer Grants Program – Helping Volunteers With Petrol Costs
Labor Welcomes Regulation of Consumer Credit Industry
Rudd Labor To Tackle Cost Of Living – More Powers To ACCC To Monitor Prices In The Supermarket
Fresh Ideas For The Future Economy: Cost Of Living Pressures Faced By Australian Families
Federal Labor Calls For Senate Inquiry Into Cost Of Living Pressures On Older Australians
Rudd Labor Government To Appoint Petrol Commissioner
Skilling Australia – Federal Labor’s Plan To Fight Inflation By Closing The Skills Gap
Better Access, A Fairer System: Labor’s Full Fee Degree Phase Out
Federal Labor’s Commitment To Lift School Standards
Keeping Our Best And Brightest In Australia – Labor’s Future Fellowships
Federal Labor’s Plan For Improved And Expanded Commonwealth Scholarships
Federal Labor’s $42 Billion Minimum Schools Funding Commitment: Giving Schools Financial Certainty
Skills Australia – To Fix Nation’s Skills Crisis
Rudd Labor Government To Lift School Retention Rates
Federal Labor’s University Compacts: Investing In Our Universities’ Strengths And Promoting National Interest Priorities
Federal Labor To Help Parents Prepare Their Children For School
Federal Labor’s Job Ready Certificate
Federal Labor’s $284 Million For West
Federal Labor’s $2.5 Billion Trades Training Centres In Schools Plan
Federal Labor’s National Asian Language And Studies In Schools Program – Preparing Australia For The Future
Investing In Our Future: An Education Revolution
Federal Labor’s Plan For A National Curriculum For Australian Schools
Encouraging Young Australians To Study And Teach Maths And Science – Labor’s Education Revolution
An Education Revolution For Australia’s Economic Future
Federal Labor’s Low Tax First Home Saver Accounts – Larger Deposits And Higher National Savings
A Place To Call Home – Federal Labor’s Plan To Build More Homes For Homeless Australians
Federal Labor’s National Rental Affordability Scheme
Federal Labor To Invest $500 Million In Housing Plan Saving Homebuyers Up To $20,000 On New Homes
Rudd Labor To Establish National Housing Supply Research Council – Looking Forward: Next 20 Years
Rudd Labor Government To Reduce Red Tape And Increase Housing Affordability For Home Owners
Rudd To Consider Tax Credits To Create Affordable Rental Properties
Innovation Future for Australian Industry
Labor’s Enterprise Connect: connecting businesses with new ideas and new technologies
$14 million for a Mining Technology Innovation Centre in Mackay
$20 million Innovative Regions Centre in Geelong: Turning ideas into jobs
$1.5 Million To Build Innovation Connections In Northern Adelaide
Federal Labor’s $20 Million Manufacturing Centre In Northern Adelaide
Federal Labor’s $12 million Manufacturing Centre in North West Tasmania
Fresh Ideas: Manufacturing Roundtable And Background Paper
New Directions In Innovation – Lifting Australia’s Productivity
Federal Labor’s Plan For Primary Industries
Labor’s Plan For Fair Prices For Farmers
Labor Supports The Central West Queensland Growth Corridor
Labor To Support The Pine Rivers Growth Corridor
Federal Labor To Invest In The Northern Adelaide Growth Corridor
Federal Labor To Invest $10 Million In The Ipswich Growth Corridor
Federal Labor To Invest In The Northern Rivers Growth Corridor
Federal Labor To Invest In The Sunshine Coast Growth Corridor
Labor Moves To Strenghten The Trade Practices Act
Fresh Ideas For Small Business On Government Procurement
Small Business Measure: Labor To Fix Exclusion From Commonwealth Tenders
Action To Cut Business Red Tape
Labor To Reduce Business Regulation
A Tax Plan For Australia’s Future
Securing Australia’s Place As A Financial Hub – Fresh Thinking To Boost Financial Exports
Labor’s $3 Billion Savings Plan
Hope KR and Swanee do not get too carried away and start to do something
in the near future.
The LNP if they were anyway competent should have the Labor party back to 55/45 or lower by now.
They have no consistent story or line of fire on Labor and are simply scatter brain. Turnbull is as bad as Nelson on this score. If it wasn’t for enormous help from the media (which now seems to include channel 9 morning show with Stefa… and Bolt) they would be in an even worse position. The strategy seems to be no strategy, simply snipe from the side-lines at whatever comes along and have the murdoch boys make it seem legitimate.
Rudd has four big guns in the draw now whenever he wants to cause angst within the LNP – CC, Republic, Workchoices and Costello/Howard inflation-rates.
And as much as Turnbull and co want to muddy the waters with their talk on Swan, at the end of the day (next year) if rates and petrol prices go down people will only remember that there once was a problem and, that it seems to be getting better. Hence all the insesant talk by Rudd and Swan on inflation and rates in the first 6 months, to put that image deeply in peopes minds – making them seem the cause of the solution and, all the while people willing to cut slack because they see the Global problem.
It will be much harder for the LNP to pin economic troubles on Rudd/Swan and easier for Rudd to pin inflation and rates on the LNP.
I would imagine the Govt wanting to continue raising the awareness and alarm over CC the next year which will wedge the LNP even further when Labor take further action.
If the story in the Oz is true (it may not be, but they do get good drum from the Libs), it’s the worst possible scenario for the Libs.
If Costello won’t challenge Nelson, but will challenge anyone who does challenge Nelson (ie Turnbull), it will stop Turnbull challenging, and keep Nelson in the job. Yet Nelson’s leadership won’t be secure, because Costello has not ruled himself out as a potential leader.
The only other option, under this scenario, would be for Turbull supporters to present evidence that Nelson no longer has the numbers. But Turnbull will not get the numbers until Costello states categorically that he won’t be seeking the leadership.
Costello, I believe, is a personal friend of Nelson. It’s almost as though he’s playing a game to keep Nelson in the leadership, and stop Turnbull, without contributing anything of use to the Opposition in the way of effort or policy. It’s a complete spoiler’s role.
So it seems the way for Costello supporters to get their man into the top job is to court Turbull to challenge Nelson!
They’re not only unfit for government at the moment…they’re not even fit for Opposition.
ESJ, MM et al
Last week in Israel, Knesset introduced a Negative Income Tax which will commence in two months. It certainly is being reported as a progressive measure there, rather than a right-wing policy.
Negative income tax to be paid in October
http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000366450&fid=942
Damn Bushfire!
I need a cigarette and a nap after that
ESJ et al,
The negative income tax, also known as Guaranteed Annual Income, was DLP policy in the 1970s- it didn’t win many votes!
Hear Hear
“LOL! 500. What’d you do, think up a number and divide it by pi?”
That’s the sort of thing I’d expect Lisa Simpson to say.
But what ESJ said about 500 members is straight out of the Conservative playbook, ie, start with a number, or word, or rumour and then keep on repeating it until it becomes fact.
And this Costello thing is getting really boring. I assume he thinks being imperious is impressing people.
A form of Friedman’s Negative Income Tax proposal was implemented in the US by Gerald Ford its called the Earned Income Tax Credit.
As an egalitarian I prefer the Universal Basic Income approach. A comparison had been done by Davide, Tondani (2008): Universal Basic Income and Negative Income Tax: Two Different Ways of Thinking Redistribution.
It can be found at:-
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7016/
I think Antonio and Gafhook have no-balls game sorted out.
I suggested some time ago that his super would be a key component in his decision. The deflection away from Nelson was always going to be a mammoth task, but he’s done his best to spoil Allbull’s run.
For all the talk of impending trouble I just don’t think most people are feeling it – the birth rate is a good indicator of that – and I reckon the neo-cons are banking on a shift to conservatism as things do get a bit tougher.
Nelson to hold on, and on, and on, seems more likely to me.
BB – I really think someone should be seeking you for wider exposure. Regardless of the political content the writing has an ‘Australian-ness’ that’s gone walkabout.
(unless of course you already have that covered…).
On your air warfare strategy, I agree in principle.
I think the government is working on defining differentiation at present through a considered, more intellectual detachment from the celebrity news cycle that the Fibs seem so fixated on. I’d love to see ‘less is more’ be successful, and I think there is some appetite for it, but I’m not sure they’re not going to get stuck in the middle. Our population has been so absolutely conditioned to propaganda since 1975 (and earlier) that it’s a tough habit to change. It’s no wonder Chateau Murdoch is throwing everything at them.
Thank you for your brilliant satire BB. Shanahan et al should read it. It just might make them embarrassed. But then I suppose those so hell-bent on distorting the truth for their own purposes would be beyond embarrassment. In politics truth is irrelevant; perception is all that counts.
Coming from youse, I take that as a compliment. Ta.
I cant see how Costello could criticise Howard in his book and remain in parliament. The question he will always have to face is why he did nothing about it.
So if he is remaining in Parliament it is a safe bet his book will be totally uninteresting except to see how Peter see his world.
What an informative list Gaffhook. This is what is needed to counter the “all spin no substance” mantra. I had started a list myself, but haven’t had time to complete it; I’m only to early June. For what it’s worth, it’s reproduced below. There is some overlap with yours.
We should all add to the list and explode the ‘do-nothing Government’ myth once and for all.
Kyoto Protocol signed 3 December 2007, came into effect March, 2008.
PM and several ministers attended UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Bali December 2007.
Apology to Australia’s Indigenous Peoples 13 February 2008
Current level of military commitment to Afghanistan continued, but increased focus on training and mentoring of the Afghanistan national army 19 February 2008
Binge drinking initiatives introduced:
$14.4 million towards a grants based program focused on reducing binge drinking
$19.1 million to support innovative early intervention and diversion programs to get young people under the age of 18 back on track before more serious alcohol related problems emerge.
$20 million in a targeted television, radio and internet based campaign to confront young people with the costs and consequences of binge drinking.
As a next step, a collaborative activity with the heads of sporting codes across Australia
Skills Australia Bill 2008 to establish Skills Australia, a statutory body to provide independent advice to assist us in targeting government investment in training. 11 March 2006
Creation of Regional Development Australia (RDA) – area consultative committees transition to become local Regional Development Australia committees. 20 March 2008
Budget 2008/09 13 May 2008
Alterations to the Excise Tariff Act 1921 and Customs Tariff Act 1995 (‘alcopops’ legislation) 13 May 2008
Social Security and Veterans’ Entitlements Legislation Amendment (One-off Payments and Other Budget Measures) Bill 2008, 14 May 2008
Green paper on homelessness entitled Which way home? A new approach to homelessness. $2.2 billion new investment in affordable housing for working families and individuals. 26 May 2008
Tax Laws Amendment (Luxury Car Tax) Bill 2008 29 May 2008
Family Assistance Legislation Amendment (Child Care Budget and Other Measures) Bill 2008. Affordable Child Care Plan — a $1.6 billion investment in the future of Australian families, part of a $2.4 billion investment over the next five years in integrated early childhood initiatives. 29 May 2007
Higher Education Support Amendment (2008 Budget Measures) Bill 2008 to implement the Rudd government’s education revolution 2008-2009 budget package in higher education. 29 May 2008
Indigenous Education (Targeted Assistance) Amendment (2008 Budget Measures) Bill 2008 that appropriated funding for the first election commitments to close the gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous outcomes—an initiative to provide an additional 200 teachers in the Northern Territory.
Additional funding of $8.353 million in the 2008 calendar year to improve educational outcomes for Indigenous students. 29 May 2008
National Fuelwatch (Empowering Consumers) Bill 2008. 29 May 2008
Australian combat troops lowered the flag at the conclusion of their mission in southern Iraq. 2 June 2008
Appropriation Bills 1-6 that committed $50 million to introduce the national seniors transport concession scheme for seniors card holders by 1 January 2009, reintroduction of the Commonwealth dental scheme and $150 million to help 25,000 patients get the elective surgery they need.. 2 June 2008
First Home Saver Accounts Bill 2008; Income Tax (First Home Saver Accounts Misuse Tax) Bill 2008; First Home Saver Accounts (Consequential Amendments) Bill 2008 to provide $1.2 billion over four years to help first home buyers save for their first home. 2 June 2008
There’s more at http://www.openaustralia.org/search/?s=Government+initiatives
and talcum raises the white flag
http://news.smh.com.au/national/costello-entitled-to-stay-on-turnbull-20080806-3qmh.html
jellybacks one and all
229
It’s still all about no-spine’s ‘rights’ and ‘entitlements’…grrr
(has no-spine been secretly taping their swingers parties or something?!)
Diogenes – thanks for info on the Israeli NIT initiative, will try to follow up the debate on that
BB 212
A great read Bill, and some very good points. It is indeed absurd for the opposition to complain about a downturn now when their Senate goons blocked the new revenue measures in the budget just a few weeks ago. Pure mindless obstruction and hypocracy. As if reducing the number of imported luxury cars coming into Australia will cause a recession! They blocked the very measures most likely to help avoid recession.
ESJ: I’d happily replace Swan with Tanner, Swan doesn’t inspire much confidence in me!
I think we all know how he sees his world. Through the cracks between his fingers!
228
Ad astra
I must admit that i pinched my list from somewhere else.
I would never have had the time to research that list.
One suspects that our PM knows that whatever he says to the muckrakers will always have a negative spin of their bent put on it so he does not waste time talking to them about it. That is why they are reporting as per Bushfire Bill’s description (great stuff Bill). They are jumping at and wrongly reporting anything to get a reaction but they are not getting any traction.
One day all these muck rakers will wake up and realise that Kev and Swanee have been quietly chipping away, getting things done with minimal disruption, and all of those items plus others will be firmly entrenched in the public domain and they will not believe how happy people are.
They will expect the public to be full of doom and gloom because that’s how they have been opinionating everything in their columns and reams of a$#ewipe. They must surely be realising how irrelevent they are since November 2007.
That is when the people said we have had enough.
Grace @ 223 Thank you for the link, I think.
I didn’t realize this site was inhabited by, amongst others, egalitarians and libertarians and now my head hurts.
Boerwar
A lot of political philosophies as espoused by their originators are much more nuanced than people might assume from the way the terms are used in practice. I suspect many people interested in politics do not know the theoretical difference between libertarians and liberals. Many self-proclaimed libertarians would be embarrassed to read Nozick’s original views on government interventions to favour business (eg fuel subsidies etc). Nozick did care about justice, but had a particular view on what it was and how to achieve it. I think he would turn in his grave if he saw what some Neo-cons claiming to be libertarians have done with public funds for business welfare.
202
Bushfire Bill
Turnbull must be having a bit of Attention Deficit Disorder, as in not getting enough, to trundle out that preposterous line! LOL
Firstly, Stevens does NOT do the Treasurer’s bidding, and Swan did not ASK that rates go higher.
If all Malcontent can do is distort the plain facts for some media coverage he might think he’s being an oh so clever politician, but really, how many people are going to pay attention to nonsense of that order?
Or, if that’s the best attack he can come up with, he’s seriously in the wrong game.
I am bemused by the latest stories doing the round on the messiah.
I seem to recall that about the time the CHOGM was on and Howard’s continued tenure was in question, a journo used a brilliant metaphor likening John Howard to a poisonous snake and his colleagues, perhaps likened to a transfixed bunch of schoolgirls (?) standing around, too paralysed or hypnotised to do anything. They couldn’t act until Howard acted, and Howard told them that he wouldn’t act unless they acted.
Subtract a few electoral casualties and despairees, and much the same mob are now standing around paralysed by the mere prospect of the messiah saying something like: ‘Oh, alright, I’ll save youse all, if my mate hands it to me on a platter or if somebody else challenges my mate’. Again, all sorts of rules that paralyse.
Some severe psychological damage evident all round here. Is the continuing baneful Howard legacy at work?
Do nothings.
Just had a look at GroceryChoice.
Aldi themselves couldn’t have published a better ad: they’re consistently about 25% cheaper than the rest on the basic basket.
http://grocerychoice.gov.au/Default.aspx
BB, 202 & 212, well said, some of your best so far. I too think your thoughts should be getting wider exposure.
Some are calling GroceryChoice a gimmick. Tell me what I’m missing here. If it helps consumers to identify the cheapest supermarket in their suburb, that is the store the consumers can be expected to favour. Their competitors will then be under pressure to lower their prices to woo the customers back.
I see it as a relatively simple instrument which might deliver benefits of more intense competition.
(Better GroceryChoices than WorkChoices)
Rx, it doesn’t get down to suburb level. It’s more regional area… NW Sydney, Eastern suburbs, Inner West etc.
The standout is Aldi. I knew they were cheaper, but I didn’t know it was by 25%. That’s a substantial saving on a $200 grocery shop.
Long queues, though…
Thanks JM.
BB I’m sure it would be more effective if the information was detailed right down to the individual store/suburb. Then consumers would know just which shop to go to, rather than a broad guide to the most competitive chain in their general locality.
Lot more finnicky to upkeep though.
Have a look at Tax Review Paper
Rx, You’re not missing anything the opposition is. For a party that says it’s mantra is choice for the individual, I find it hard to reconcile why they want to oppose a web site that allows individuals the choice of where to shop for the best bargains.
Sondeo, pardon my cynicism. I think some in the Opposition want to see the scheme fail, they’d like to see petrol go up, not down, rates continue to rise, a recession come sweeping in.
They want to see Aussies suffer for voting them out!
You see this in malignant blog postings: “Aussies I hope you ENJOY your Labor recession. When you lose your house, remember we TOLD you not to vote for Labor.”
If the only way they think they can get back into government is on the back of people’s hurt, and not on their own merit, then a morally-bankrupt, naked government that would prove to be. Short-lived, too, I’d bet.
If the LNP keep talking about recession and nothing happens it is gonna make Labor look even better. The problem they have is the disconnect between their rehtoric and reality people experience which, may be falling rates and easing petrol prices.
If pressure comes on the employment (which is at a fairly high level anyway) people only need reminding of what Workchoices I & II would have done to their incomes.
Rx, Unfortunately I share your cynicism. But anything that gives more information to the consumer has to be beneficial in the long term.
http://aeo8.wordpress.com/2008/08/05/merits-of-grocery-watch-fuel-watch-choice/
PK’s take on Opium–The slow working dope
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24137001-601,00.html
250 Gaffhook video here.
http://media.smh.com.au/?rid=40240&sy=smh&source=undefined
sondeo – spot on
We’re seeing something that’s probably been in the drawer since “acme fightback” days – the “intellectual wedgie”. And isn’t it an great sight after the last lot perfected, but then over-used the “anti-intellectual wedgie”.
At some point in the near future someone is going to look up the domain details of “liberal.com.au” and find “K. Rudd” in the ownership column.
250
Gaffhook
Keating hasn’t lost the art of the barb has he? And he’s dead right, Costello is a gormless git that coasted along bathing in the reflected glory of a good economy and boom times.
One of the Forex jocks quipped (and so damned accurately) that the economy had done more for Costello than he’d ever done for it! LOL
Great line, worthy of Keating that one.
If anyone wants to break the market power of any retailer(s), it’s their distribution network you need to break up. Reduce their access to customers and you reduce their market share and power.
The three biggest oligopoly markets that give us all the shits are: banking, fuel, grocery.
Each of these markets has a few very powerful players.
The only way to break their collective dominance is to force them to sell 25% of their distribution outlets to competitors not currently in the Australian market. Most probably they would be international players, although new consortia may be developed here.
This would have most effect in grocery, followed by fuel, and then banking.
I have no idea what the legal ramifications would be with this sort of policy, but that is the only way you can break their dominance.
254 Aristotle
What you’re suggesting is only a problem with the ideologists (and the businesses themselves). It’d pretty hard to argue the high school economics ideology of the free market against the societal detriment on at least 2 of the 3 you’ve named.
How does the 4 pillars banking thingy work?
Loved PJK’s the line that he unfortunately made Malcs rich along with everone else!!:lol: (although he seemed to have missed me.)
I know it really upsets some people if I say mean things about Kevvie, but he is soooo boring compared to Paul!
Spot on, split them up, no monopoly, no oligopoly
no political power as well
The US has done this before in oil and the film business, amongst others.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherman_Antitrust_Act
http://www.usdoj.gov/atr/contact/newcase.htm#laws
Dept of Justice of the USA website, land of the free market ideology, explaining and describing the antitrust laws that prevent the dominance of economic sectors by monopolies [and an oligopoly is not too far away conceptually and practically] and give free trade some teeth.
Worth a read.
If they can do it so can we.
Better,
BB at 240, 243.
Couldn’t agree more re Aldi, and they’ve had unit pricing for quite a while too – haven’t noticed it resulting in aisles full of confused shoppers or hand-wringing owners.
Like many people, I haven’t got much money to throw around, but since I started shopping there a couple of years ago, I have certainly been able to spend a lot less, and eat better quality, and fresher, food than I could ever get at the (closer) big two chains. In fact I’ve spent almost nothing (about fifty dollars in twelve months) at the big two.
All the non-food items I’ve bought from Aldi have been excellent too, and for me it’s a much faster, less stressful, more pleasant shopping ‘experience’ all round.
Also thoroughly agree with the comments regarding the quality of your posts. Put me down for a copy if you ever decide to publish!
How did you go with your smoking campaign – I had to abandon blogs for a while, so don’t know if you posted what the outcome was. If you achieved what you set out to, good on you. If you didn’t quite get there, you’re sure to next time.
Another Aldi convert here too.
The thing is that it is not the Supermarkets per se, it is the “name brands”. Aldi brands may be no name but they are not no frills quality.
Are we paying for the Name Brand’s advertising? Of course.
A Costco will be opening up in Melbourne next year, with other stores to follow, I believe.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/costco-megastores-may-be-heading-for-australia/2007/06/01/1180205487139.html
Agree that supermarkets are less competitive than they look. New entry is very difficult and there is probably pricing policy which includes undercutting new entries and the small independents.
A few years ago a swag of executives from a certain oligopolic Australian supermarket chain went to Europe specifically to have a look at Aldi.
They returned and stated that it would never work here.
A few years in and Aldi has, I think but I may be wrong, about 5% of the Australian market. That is a lot of bikkies.
Some Aldi features. Not certain about these but are likely to be right:
1. a much smaller number of items (ie no faux choices between dozens of items that are essentially the same). It used to be a couple of hundred items and the checkout chicks were expected to memorise the prices for each of the items.
2. small stores, therefore you don’t wear yourself out going through all the isles. Also, the real estate cost per the unit item you actually end up buying is less.
3. because the stores are small, the carparks tend to be small – you are much closer between the car door and the store door.
4. Aldi virtually gives away items to lure the customer in I think the concept is something like loss leader. So, TVs at cost, for example. Not sure about the after sales service. Aldi also spends less on advertising than competitors.
5. long term deals with suppliers, so suppliers can invest in more efficient production, know their prices et cetera. This compares with certain other oligopolical supermarket chains who will screw suppliers. Short term this is cheaper for the consumer, long term, I]m not so sure.
6. Aldi has home brand stuff sometimes has a certain familiar look and feel about it – test this proposition next time you work through an Aldi store. I think Aldi policy is to have home brand stuff that is equal in quality or superior in quality to branded stuff but to have a competitive price. That is, they don’t undercut by giving home brand the status of crap.
7. more pallet work – ie the the product stays in the pallet, it is the pallet that comes out and the items are not individually unpacked by store workers, but by shoppers
8. fewer check out aisles, and customers pack it themselves.
9. I am not sure if Aldi sells shelf space. Certain other oligopolical supermarket chains do. That is, if you want them to sell your brand new food thingie, you have to pay them to put it on their shelves. Also, if you want the prime, high traffic spots, you have to pay them more. This also means that their home brands have an edge.
10. I think but am not certain that Aldi has a preference for buying store sites rather than renting space. I am not sure how it works in terms of finance and tax, but it does work in the sense that they are not at the mercy of the really big shopping centre owners. There can be some argy bargy where certain oligopolical supermarket chains and shopping centre owners try to stop competition by working the local planning laws to their advantage to stop new entry.
So, there are a lot of savings from the Aldi way of doing things, some of which get passed on. I think one oligopolical response has been more corner store, petrol station store, convenience store openings.
I don’t think Aldi is a listed company. I think it is owned by a couple of brothers (Aldi brothers) in Germany, so all profits are repatriated.
MayoFeral & Diogenes.
Slightly off topic.
Are you aware of these studies.
Quite a few mates of mine from the grey funnel line have succumed in the last couple of years including my brother. They are all in and around that age group.
I am aware that the NZ Govt has recognised that some of their guys were sprayed but still not sure what the Aus Govt’s position is.
http://www.ucdmc.ucdavis.edu/cancer/newsroom/newsdetail.html?key=1514&svr=http://www.ucdmc.ucdavis.edu&table=published
Umm, looking at my 264 post, it is long and only tenuously connected. Happy to take guidance, William.
It’s fine, Boerwar. I’ll have a problem if it turns into an argument, but I don’t see how it would.
Boerwar
Just my opinion but you nailed a few of the reasons for higher grocery prices.
220 Chris Curtis – the DLP had some very good policies, attending a conference a couple of years with the last of the old time comms and groupers speaking the remarkable thing was how many groupers would reflect a moderate left of centre position today.
Roy Orbison – yes it is about 500 active members and about 6,-7000 active members. But hey ignore the facts if that makes you feel better. Besides easier to stack out the party if you want a seat.
Thomas Paine – of course the ALP is going to abolish WorkChoices. I think the comrades from the ACTU might tell you different.
ESJ @ 269 cf DLP, spot on. In many areas the DLP was socially far more progressive than the libs. After all, their roots were labour. The schizophrenic thing was that they tended to see the rest of reality through the prism of a death struggle between catholicism and communism.
When the rumour of Costello going for leader get PJK going, I’m almost half hoping the LIbs do put him as leader (actually I am really hoping they’ll do it as it’ll lock in an ALP victory at the next election)
“”In national terms, to have such a nong – and he is, in policy terms he is a mouse – to have him back again, speaks volumes about the Liberal Party,” Mr Keating said.
“In Labor Party terms, I sort of hope he does, as he makes it a better pitch for us.”
Boerwar,
They were right!
Yes communism ironically is something trendy today – in Sydney we have the Lenin Bar which is decked out in red kitsch. Sadly the reality was death and executions.
Gaffhook
Australian soldiers were exposed to Agent Orange in Vietnam and received compensation about 10 years ago. I don’t know how many. The link between prostate cancer and Agent Orange would have been pretty hard to find but that study looks pretty conclusive to me. The journal “Cancer” only publishes studies with very well designed methodology.
Prostate cancer has such a high prevalence that there could be a huge number of veterans affected.
oakshott county is a urologist so he would know better than me.
But diogenes is it the roundup or is it just a factor of getting older explaining the prevalence of prostate cancer for vets?
ESJ @ 275 It looks like they stratified large samples.
What is not clear from the release is whether they did anything more than PSA tests, which, according to some, are not all that useful
ESJ
They used soldiers who were not exposed to Agent Orange as a control group and compared them with those exposed to Agent Orange. The two groups were also matched for BMI, race and smoking, all of which are linked to prostate cancer. The study looks pretty robust to me. A bet a whole bunch of lawyers are salivating.
PS Hope you saw my link to NIT starting in October 08 in Israel.
Ron 196 Catching up with your Post at 11.36 last night.
I was referring to the small “l” Lib voters themselves and the philosophical difference that occurs mainly at that level. No, I was not referring to Senior Libs or present MP’s. These have too much allegiance invested in the Party to change to another.
The main sticking point for those voters has been their attitude to Unions and their role within the ALP. Now that this influence has diminished and they no longer have such a key role as they used to , there is nothing philosophically I can see to prevent them going to the modern ALP. After all, most of them are workers and the ALP has plenty of people with aspiration in their ranks. Rudd is the obvious example whose family because of his wife is wealthy. Garret is also wealthy. On top of this as you point out their own Lib party has failed them. In fact, the polling figures the ALP is getting at the moment would have to include a number of small “l” Lib voters who have defected at the moment and are obviously considering their position. And as you say they could change to ALP without a single policy change.
Shanahanigins has diverted posts here from future solar , and from th liberls CC problems , and from th liberals leadership problems
Shanahanigins red herrings of interst rates going up ar bad , interst rates going down is ar worse , and interest rates unchanged hav ‘narrowed’ to not up and not down , so ar between bad and worse Consevative ‘oz’
Next will be cool dude Tanner to chalenge Swanee as Treasurer for a red herring I mean ‘oz’ at least to divert our attention from Liberals woes of unhappinesses could hav given some juicy snippets of Costello’s impending exsiting best seller
‘how to be Treasurer for 12 years and afterwards even wonder myself in th mirror each morning , did I achieve anything at all but fluff and smirks’
Sir Kevin to th Shanahanigans : apology , ratifyied Kyoto , green paper on CC ETS , roll out start National sppeedy broadband , internet & panels in schools , 12 billion Water program , price watchs , assault on indigenous health and welfare , today bigest tax review in 50 years
Sir Kevin has DONE these things already , making him already a great ‘left’ social & equity reformist on ‘big picture’ social , equity , financial , environment & CC Programs AND YET a ‘right’ consevative ‘oz’ writer miserabley looks on in jealously and uses a miserable oily pen to divert our shining eyes from Kevin07’s golden gems Why ? to help a ‘right’ consevative Liberal rabbles of ashs of there plastic philosophys of dooms & pessismisims and of wealthiest can plunder our poors peoples , and can not even ’spin’ th liberals 43% irelevance Think CC think our Tomorrows , Think solar think future bright , Think the Consevatives tink dirty enegy oils , and Think Shanahanigans no think Sir Kevins , Think not th ‘oz’
ACA had it that the new grocery check site was a total waste of time and should be closed down while TT had that the ACCC has gone to the dogs. Each one had an “objective” expert of course.
Not a good word at all. Surprise, surprise.
ESJ 178 your eg of NSW Labor
From my 176
“But Labor will not cross the line to become a party belonging to business. After all, the true wealth of a political party is not measured in donations, but in voters and that is who has the say. Labor on just these logical grounds alone will always be the party of workers.”
A positive statement of logic like this actually implies the negative. If a Labor Gov’t does cross the line and become a party of business and neglect their own voters they run a high risk of being voted out. This quite possibly will happen to the NSW Labor Gov’t at the next election.
Your example actually verifies my statement and does not disprove it.
Gusface 180
“Doug
Labor is now the party of everyman/woman not just the workers”
The majority of voters are workers or are supported by workers. I am talking of the major constituency of the ALP, not the minority who can be made up of Academics, Professional People, Managers, or from any other walk of life. In fact many of those from these other areas are attracted to the ALP due to an emphasis on fairness and equity in Society.
Workers does not just include blue collar people or labourers. It includes Admin people and many professional people who work for an employer.
It is no accident that Rudd aimed his election pitch at “working families”.
280 GB, don’t worry remember the last-week love-in with JWH and Costello on TT before the eleciton. They don’t matter.
Gaffhook@265,
Re: Viet vets:
Would be interesting to see if Motor Neurone Disease has been just as prevalent with the US soldiers and Vietnamese civilians.
Further, makes you wonder what side-effects the military cocktails being used in Iraqi and Afghanistan will cause our current troops.
http://www.vvaa.org.au/health03.htm
Hunt likens Rudd and Wong to Saddam Hussein:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/06/2326442.htm?section=justin
Then I guess when your leader has compared Iraq to Kokoda, any analogy is fair.
Looks like we need to update Godwin’s law. What a clown.
And remember B of P – he’s one of their stars of the future.
“287
Grog Says:
August 6th, 2008 at 8:06 pm
And remember B of P – he (Hunt) is one of their stars of the future.”
Well he thinks he is. But not too many others agree.
ESJ (269),
Was that the conference re the Labor split, held in the Victorian Legislative Assembly in 2005?
No Chris it was in the NSW Parliament, Jim McClelland spoke, Bob Gould, Laurie Short, the usual Sydney suspects at the time.
Grog @ 285
Revoltingly dopey thing for Hunt to say. ‘Any news is good news’ is going to catch up with him if he keeps that sort of boys own stuff going. The libs had 11 years and the current government has had 9 months. Following Hunt’s paradigm, who would mostly be like Saddam Hussein?
BTW, I wonder if Hunt also acknowledges the role of our friends and allies had in the US stirring the marsh arabs into revolt against Saddam only to let them swing in the murderous breeze of Saddam’s retaliation which included destroying their reedbeds and hidden water channels. No? Hunt isn’t 100% stupid, so probably knows about it. Well, Australian politicians have always been very good at selective history mongering.
Final point, I imagine that when inhabitants of certain pacific islands started calling for Australia to receive climate change refugees as a result of rising sea levels, they would not have got a lot of sympathy from some Murray Darling denizens and their dog whistling pollies? The rather ugly irony is that farmers from the Murray Darling may well beat the pacific islanders to become the first climate change refugees in the region. Bottom line, no irrigation water, no farming in a lot of that country, just expensive dust and sand with huge debt overlays. Perhaps the climate change refugees could relocate to some of the pacific islands that are a bit higher than the others?
ESJ,
Bob Gould spoke at the Melbourne Conference too – an interesting fellow. We also had Frank Scully, now the last living ALP(A-C)/DLP MP, Tim Hayes, grandson of Tom Hayes, Bill Barry, son of the Bill Barry and uncle of Peter Kavanagh, John Cain, and a host of others.
I’m yet to be impressed by Greg Hunt. He certainly does not strike me as quality leadership material.
Bugger! I missed PJK on 7:30 Report – anyone catch it?
Grog,
In a polite way PJK confirmed what everybody has been saying – Rudd Labor stands for nothing.
Grog @ 294
Yep.
He spoke about the unfinished business of superannuation reform (9% rather than 15% and said that Baby Boomers were going to suffer because Howard/Costello reneged on that bit).
He brushed off Red Kerry’s suggestion that he was still bitter about JWH.
He repeated the lack of structural reform line on Costello, the low flier line and the opiate line.
He made an implied criticism of Rudd by stating that it was an impossible job to micro manage.
He ended by stating the hope that Costello would return because it would be good for the labour party.
Not a brilliant interview but a good one, with PK in a mellow mood.
Red Kerry’s smarmy smirks put me off a bit.
ESJ @ 295
Our posts crossed. I think what he was saying was that all the bits needed to be collected into ‘a narrative’ which would be a bit different from interpreting it as PK stating that labour stands for nothing.
They stand for keeping the economic dunces in the Liberal party out of government, which is a very good start.
295 ESJ, so I guess by your statement, you believe the Libs stand for something?
Good luck with that.
“The report on Australia’s future tax system tells the story of how the nation has been treading water in reform terms on corporate taxes.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24136814-601,00.html
Ahhh, the Costello legacy. Economic policies that only his mum could be proud of.
ShowsOn.. I think you mean “only his father in law”.
LOL! Of course!
But Costello did invent the spineless book!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,6001451,00.jpg
294
I only caught the end 30 seconds.
The bit I remember is that he refereed to no-spine as
“Thallium – slow release dope”
Calling spades f$%king shovels as only PJK can.
Grog,
What can I do or say? If Labor has a mediocre offering I cannot but tell the truth!
What a weak echo of a great Laborist tradition in this country. I guess the cause of Labor will end with a whimper and not a bang.
Weak bureacratic managerialism is sooo much better Grog. More Swannie et al eh?
That is a good question. What does the Liberal party stand for? What are their policy positions and how many of them might know it?
All i can discern is they are against doing anything on CC and some of them deny its existence. I gather some will want to reinstall Workchoices type laws. So, nothing they can be proud of or can tell the public.
It appears their only reason for existence at the moment is to be the anti-labor party which is hardly needed since the murdoch media and co have adopted that role.
Weak bureaucratic managerialism. . .That will introduce an ETS, do complete review of tax system etc etc
What do the Libs stand for?
Gradual reintroduction of a plantation economy?
304 ESJ [Swannie et al?] C’mon give me another name you think is doing poorly? Gillard? Tanner? Smith? Bowen? Roxen? Burke?
Swan has been set up by the Libs as a failure purely based on his nervous performance in QT in the first two weeks. I haven’t seen Nelson, Turnbull or Bishop draw much blood from him since then.
At least he hasn’t screwed around with international finances like Costello did in his first year.
Swan is performing very well now.
ESJ, what did you think of John Cain Jr? Many say he was a true Labor man heading a true Labor government. I thought he was very good, unlike Kirner.
Looks like Hunt is pinching his talking points from Piers Akerman:
It appears that the anti-Labor forces have cracked, they are saying the silliest things.
Keating still has it, another masterful performance on TV tonight with Kerry!
I hope the Rudd Government does something about superannuation in its first or second term.
310 Tobias – nice pick up – but what were you doing there in the first place??
Greg Hunt? He’s one of Costello’s backers, which isn’t a great surprise, garbage tends to attract vermin.
Hunt has been off his rocker since he started bleating about millionaire developers not being able to get the solar panel rebate.
312 Prog – I haven’t seen it yet, but given I think the ALP (and Gillard especially) really got going last year after PJKs criticism of their selling of the IR policy, here’s hoping they do listen to him.
I was going to say “looking for pr0n”, but upon reflection I don’t think that’s wise.
Google News picked it up when I was searching for any other articles on Hunt’s statement.
Gaffhook @ 265 -
Are you aware of these studies.
Oh, goodie. Something else to look forward to.
Not that I’m expecting to live long enough to have to worry about prostrate cancer.
I read a study not long ago which found that the more sex you have during your 50s/early 60s the less likely you are to get it. Wonder of the DVA will come to the party on preventative Viagra?
Boerwar @ 296 -
He spoke about the unfinished business of superannuation reform (9% rather than 15% and said that Baby Boomers were going to suffer because Howard/Costello reneged on that bit).
Heard Peter Martin on the radio about this earlier today, and in his opinion most workers don’t need 15% to have a very comfortable retirement. Even at 9% they’ll have a greater disposable income in retirement than when they were earning.
He pointed out that what isn’t taken into account is that retirees have fewer expenses than workers. They’re not having to travel to work every day, park, buy work clothes or lunches, etc, etc
IHO, especially in the early years, the money would be better going into mortgage repayments.
I love how for Piers the solution to every problem is always just a penstroke away (but of course the ALP is so idealogically riven that it just won’t do it).
317 MF
Peter Martin has long been arguing that the super market is the most subsidised market in Oz:
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/02/tuesday-column-please-please-dont-put.html
as usual, he makes some good points.
310 – It has a lot more to do with a lack of rain. Rudd is not god and can’t make it rain.
And there is no water in the murray system to put into the system anyway and any water from the darling basin will mostly be lost along the way.
320 BSF yep it’s a bloody hard issue. With any finite resourse if you put more in one area that means you must have taken it from somewhere else.
Let’s be fricken honest, if it was as easy as Piers and other critics make it out then there wouldn’t even be a crisis.
It’s always easy to say do this and you’ll save the lakes. And just not bother about considering what has happened to the industries that have had to forego irrigation. And vice-versa.
Yes the Murray is overused, but it sure as sh*t didn’t just get to this state in the last 7 months.
Thanks for the link, Grog. I was driving at the time and missed some of the conversation so the article has filled in many of the blanks
Get REAL! Everyone knows the Murray-Darling was doing FINE up until last November. ’twas then that the threat of Australia-wide Socialism scared away all the water.
True, very thought provoking. However, I like the idea of earning more when I am retired than when I work. It would mean extra cash to spend on things I could never afford when working. Or money to give away to family, or to a charity, or to leave to others when I’m gone.
I see it as a bit of an extra reward for working for all those years.
SHowsON, I would try and counter that, but I can’t. As usual Piers has got it nailed. Damn he’s just got us commies beaten at every turn. Always thinking two moves ahead.
The lower Murray and the two lakes have historically often filled with sea water during droughts. And at times it has come a long way upstream. It’s only since the Goolwa barrage was built in the 1930s that they’ve been exclusively fresh water. Plus, as I posted a couple of weeks ago, due to evaporation, the water there is now nearly as saline as sea water anyway.
While it’s going to be bad news for the farms and vineyards in the area, the river and lakes will cope and will recover if good years return.
Bottom line: In the absence of substantial rainfall there is nothing anyone can do that won’t damage the interests of one group or another. Sad, but farming is like that.
Doug
#278
(and ESJ)
Doug we both agree “Workers will ALWAYS be the main part of Labor’s demographics. I cannot see them vacating this area and loosing the votes. Labor’s policys ar always geared to equity & fairness for workers Sir Kevins achievements todate prove this preference list #279)
ALL of th other Parties would love this Labor owned ‘workers ground’ ,but will never get it Labor has held it since its formation by workers in 1891 For all th fantasy talk of th Democrats & Greens wishing to expand , its not political posible in reality Those Partys ar permanentley frozen in th ‘outer left’ by Labor Despite ESJ’s ‘hopes’ , th Libs ar frozen out of this area in th ‘conservative right’
These terms represent political reality of different Party’s philosphies & principas & consequent policys Your point is th small “L’ liberal voters could move to Labor and we both agree “they could change to ALP without a single policy change.”
A diference in our views is you think small “L” liberal voters WILL do so (AND in big numbers) due to lesser control of Labor by Unions and that Labor does represent there interests (and so lead to th Liberals Party’s significant demise
Alterntively I think all small “ L” liberal voters SHOULD come because Labor reely represents them in th PRIMARY Labor ‘left’ philosophys & principas & consequent policys , but I’ll list in a fewer seconds why I think only some of these small L” liberal voters actually may come permanently (perhaps 2% to 3% max) coincidentley roughly th current 2PP % Labor vote increase it has presently from 2007 electon
I tink th balance of small “L” liberals will stay with th Liberal Party permanently , and ensure its survival , and see its current demographic ‘hole’ problam temporarily , due to ‘young/generational Agend issues that th Libs arr missing on presently , but over time will correct (including CC , W/C , ETS , envoronment , econamy still buoyant fr job , Water , no ‘attractive goody’ foreign ‘war’/threat to swing support around )I think this will self correct by Libs politcaly waking up (abit) and ‘save’ Libs Party
Th equal other major saving grace for Libs Party’s continued existence I see , is th balance of small “L” liberals will stay ALL with th Liberl Party due to ALL th other importent “left” Labor philosophical , principals & & consequent policys
differences vs small L” liberal voters , which small L” liberal voters do actually think ar as important a equity They ar
(AND ESJ may take consider following (which excludes hard ‘right’ Liberal philosophies) WHEN YOU ASK WHAT DOES LABOR STAND FOR my philosophical opponent ) :
The philpsophical , policy & principals differences of Labor to a Peacock type small ‘L’ liberal: Labor ,believe strong role for National govt in an economy Small L Liberals believe some role Labor believe National govt must ensure benefits or plus’s from any changes must be shared equally by people & not concentrated to a minority Small “L” Liberals believe National govt must be small govt providing basic public services otherwise its role is to facilitate/encourage private enterprise & free markets Labor believe National govt must ensure fairness and achieve more equitable share of richs & income for all Small “L” Liberals believe in liberty of individual for entrepreneurshp
In specific Policys , these variances of ‘left’ Labor philpsophical , policy & principals vs small “L” liberals ar general only : Labor supports universal healthcare , public hospitals rather than private hospitals , public education rather than private education , expanded public housing , welfare as a right usually without strings , usually means teting of Govt benefits , firm support of Unions , more regulated IR system , usually more govt/quasi funded Infrastucture , usually public transport over privatised transport , water in control of govt not private enterprise , more subsidised pharmacuticels , more humanitarian treatment of ‘illegals’ , more muliculured immigration , more independent foreign affairs from US , more accountability of ASIO etc , more equitable tax system skewered low/middle , tighter Govt regulation of market economy , firmer support of ACCC as institution , firmer on social justice issues like detentions gay issues human rights etc , is more “suspicious of Big Business profiteering conduct & exploitation , more pro a Republic , more inclusive on aboriginal affairs , far more pro environment , far more pro CC
Some of these areas Doug , I accept th differences of Labors ‘left’ phlosophies vs ‘right’ small “L” liberals philosophies may be smaller margins than between ‘right’ ‘conservative’ ones , but I wished to emphasise th general ‘right’ idealology ingrown thinkings generally in all ‘right’ philosophies /Liberal voters , then I tried to delete inappropriate small L ones or ones needing nuansing to take account of small L’ vs conservative therein I my ruh , may hav made sdome erors there I think the above other ‘right’ philosophies should not theoretically prevent all small “L” liberals ‘coming permanently to home’ ie. to Labor (thereby destroying th Libs Party) , but think those or some of those will
.
( th surface differences between th ‘left’ and ‘right’ spectrums today ar different to yesterdays , but only in some of there specific areas due to Globilisation etc , but those ‘left’ vs ‘right’ differences ar still there in there fundamentel underlying principals and outcomes and overall objectives ie. Chiflys light on th Hill’ diference is still there , despite Liberals , Greens , Democrats & extrem hard conservatives pretending otherwise ( Medicare & all solars & computers in all Schools ,& tax policy ar mere examples )
Extra examples:
and CC and environmet and Govt giving Govt moneyies to poor/middle peoples not th rich
AND Octiober 2007 Howar promises 34 billion tax cuts including 3 billion to th richer folks BUT ‘left; Rudd promises only 31 billion in taz cuts AND RIPPS OFF Howards 3 billion to th richer , and pomises into Schools etc Peoples unlike us doug , saying no diference of ‘left’ vs ‘right ‘ anymores do live in Gilligans or in fantasylands of th rich in moneys but not necessairlys th rich of harts
You are correct MayoFeral (@325). Before the barrages were built, in times of drought there are reports of people catching snapper as far upstream as Murray Bridge, and I think sightings of dolphins in the river as well.
As for the vineyards etc in the area, well one vine grower down that way spent $250,000 and built his own desalination plant. He now has unlimited water and it will pay for itself in a couple of years.
The problem with trying to “fix” the Murray (and nothing but an end to the drought will do that), is that every single stakeholder group doesn’t give a crap about anybody else. So every single group wants something different to be done. The people at Goolwa want either weirs built or sea water let into the lakes to preserve their tourism. But the farmers don’t want that because they wouldn’t be able to use the water for their crops/livestock.
ron,
You and I might have been at cross purposes the other day on this “Labor becoming the party of business” idea.
I agree with you that the Libs may well bottom out at roughly 40-45% support (TPP)and then gradually climb back up. In fact I hope that’s what happens.
But what I am saying is that if (and it’s no more than an if) the libs “die” (let’s interpret that to mean 15-20% of the vote, or lower), which is what some PBers think will happen, then I’d only give the Labor Party 5-10 years before it becomes the party of business. Reasons being:
1. business people will pretty quickly work out there’s no point supporting the Libs.
2. the real contest will be between Labor and the Greens. This will get business a lot more motivated about politics than they have been for the past 25 years (during the past 25 years the main contest has been between a party that looks after business well – Liberal, and a party that looks after business ok – ALP). But the Greens as a top 2 force? Many businesspeople will feel quite threatened.
3. business money and time will therefore flow to Labor. In fact, because of the Green threat that exists in this scenario, there’ll be much more total money and effort going into politics from the business community than is currently the case. The vast majority of this will go to Labor.
4. couple point 3 with the decline of union influence (which is basically a done deal already), and bingo – what you have is business as the dominant financial force in the Labor Party.
You and Doug have said “what about the Labor voters?”. Good point, but if the Libs have gone under 20%, the main bloc of voters Labor will need to stay ahead of the Greens are people who would now vote Liberal.
So, in summary, I am not saying the Libs will go below 20% (though I agree with others, it’s possible to envisage a scenario in which this happens). What I am saying is that if this Liberal death comes to pass, then I’d give the Labor Party five years in its current form. Maybe ten years, tops. The Labor brand will survive and even dominate, but the Labor Party itself, Ron, will be a totally different thing to what you have known up to now.
But it’s only supposition on my part.
So wrong on so many levels…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24141069-601,00.html
The Australian’s lead story say Hamdan is guilty of “war crimes” and that he wept as the judge read out the “sentence”.
Giving material support to terrorism is not a war crime. It is a Guantanamo-only “crime”.
He hasn’t been sentenced. In fact the next line in the article says he will be sentenced today. How can he have wept at the “sentence” if he hasn’t been sentenced yet?
“Material support for terrorism” is a catch-all “crime” which basically means “working for the other side”. Last I heard, working for the other side was not a war-crime in itself, except in Guantanamo World.
Hamdan has been a thorn in the side of the US court system. He made most of the appeals. So I guess they’ll throw the book at him.
310
Tobias Ziegler
It’s bloody rich coming from that mob who sat on their backsides for a decade and made soothing noises right up until the latest election, then whipped out a ‘back of the envelope’ BIG number which they didn’t even pass through Treasury, and then tried to convince us they were ‘on to it’! LOL
What a hide!
I do hope Penny Wong gets her $300m from the AWB, she could then forcibly buy back some water allocations and push some farmers off the land and resettle them…Higgins would be nice, eh?
You mean working for the other side by direct assisting a self confessed terrorist who used his parent’s cement company to fund the September 11 terrorist attacks.
Sure it isn’t a war crime, but I think it is a very serious crime, and he deserves everything coming to him, which will hopefully be life imprisonment.
330
Bushfire Bill
At Nuremberg they declined to put Hitler’s driver on trial.
Progress in the rule of law? Not in that little bit of the world that’s not Cuba nor under US jurisdiction either. Not much human progress in that empty space in George Bush’s head either I’m afraid.
Just how do they think this is going down all over the world? Let alone the Muslim bits of it.
dyno
quite interesting all this talk of the fibs demise weve been having
yesterday was talking to a former fib (staffer ) about comp stuff and we were taling upgrades daddaa,when out of the blue the talk steered towards the LDP
i presumed this was some sort of whizzbahgery but aftre a couple mins realised it was the liberal democratic party he was on about
maybe the subterranean rumblings are leading to this hybrid of “wets” but would be an extremely interesting melding of the dems and the good (kinda) fibs.
makes sense when you think about it.
Interesting indeed, gusface. Certainly, “good’ ones like the Member for Kooyong would be ideologically much closer to the dems than they are to the Minchins, Ruddocks and Andrews. But then, so probably, was Attila the Hun!
I don’t accept the Lib/Nats are as close to political oblivian as some here suggest/hope, but their future is bleak if they continue the march to the ‘right.’ Even Labor is now to the right of Ming the Merciless (and Holt and Gorton, and arguably line ball with Fraser when PM, he much more left-wing these days).
BB, #330 is off topic. Australian politics only please.
Mayo
“I don’t accept the Lib/Nats are as close to political oblivian as some here suggest/hope, but their future is bleak if they continue the march to the ‘right.’
the thing that i think is killing them is their state setups.the drive for a consensus at times is derailed by the varying influence of the current patriarch.
Each state is essentially afiefdom ruled by (currently) a very narrow clique,not so much interested in “national “affairs but their own vested interests.
the appeal to mcmansionites was only ever a short term policy and the harsh realities of day to day policy delivery has failed the fibs big time.
the greens increasing % and labs strong showing consisitently in the polls would be causing significant heartache at fib hq
So the economy is “going into recession” while employment is climbing. Let’s see the Libs spin this to their advantage.
http://news.smh.com.au/business/fulltime-jobs-surge-in-slow-economy-20080807-3rh9.html
That has got to be funny.
Turnbull and Co were getting ready to continue the recession narrative to take focus off possible lower rates and, employment figures go up.
Now anyone listening to Turnbull might start scratching their heads and wondering how his predicted doom and gloom matches the reality.
339
Thomas Paine
Funny party they’re not running isn’t it? Ten years of winding back infrastructure (like higher education selling expensive degrees to foreign ’students’ to barely survive…what a complete travesty!) and all the physical stuff, and then have the gall to say that Swan was talking the economy down. Well where did all the ‘boom’ money go? Oh, that’s right, tucked up in the Future Fund! Great, how about investing in our real future, if we’re going to still have one.
Turnbull’s a clown trying to get the audience’s attention off that other clown, Costello.
And yes, the next part of his act should be hillarious.
I’d like to point out in thallium’s defence that it is an excellent way to poison someone, but only if they are bald. Having your hair drop out before you die is kind of a giveaway that you’ve been poisoned.
Any views on how they got Litivienko, Diogenes?
341
Diogenes
It’s only taken years for the public to get enough of a toxic dose of the dope’s smugness to put them right, eh?
ESJ
Litvienko and his friend (who didn’t die) got some bad sushi in London which was laced with polonium. The assasins would have been better off poisoning his sushi with tetrodotoxin and blaming the chef for mucking around with puffer fish.
Poisoning politicians is becoming quite popular. They’re dropping like flies in ex-Soviet countries. Zimbabwe and Cuba are also pretty keen on the concept.
Dumbest way to poison someone. They quite literally left a radioactive trail across half of London.
The Tiser reports that tomorrow it will publish a 460 voter poll suggesting Kaylene Maywald the SA Water Security Minister who is the National Party’s only Minister in Australia, will lose her seat at the next election. She is behind both Liberal and Labor in the poll.
The Tiser has launched a relentless and bitter campaign against Maywald and Rann on Water, and is threatening to extend it to Wong and Rudd if nothing is done for the Murray.
Chaffey voters abandon Karlene Maywald in droves, poll finds
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24142980-5006301,00.html
Diogenes @ 346
Do environmental flows come into it for the Tiser’s Murray campaign or is it 100% about impact on people?
That’s it. According to the divine one, Cossie has no ball was because he has been bullied in his younger days by big and nasty brother Tim. And bro Tim has been feeling so guilty ever since that he turned to religion and became a a Baptist minister. As well as atoning his sin by also becoming the chief executive of World Vision Australia to help the poors and needies. Phew, i feel better now and also should confront my own big brother.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/miranda-devine/the-little-brother-never-born-to-rule-/2008/08/06/1217702136065.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Boerwar
The Tiser is big on environmental flows. They are showing endless photo’s of the dry Lower Lakes which they want rescued. NSW giving a 30 % water allocation to its farmers to “grow cotton and rice in the desert” has gone down particularly poorly when our farmers get 2% or something. There are allegations that Rann has sold out SA at the negotiating table to keep his Federal aspirations alive, as he is reportedly going to debunk from SA in about a year.
Fortunately for Labor, Federal Liberal has also botched water management but the comments comparing Penny Wong to inept dictators indicate they can see an opening. State Liberal in SA is so hopelessly inept that I am convinced they want to stay in Opposition as they enjoy the lazy, no responsibility lifestyle of not being in power.
On a brighter note, just had a chance to read last Sunday’s Murdoch rag and apparently the ATO is to triple the number of staff monitoring those worth $30 million plus to ensure they pay every cent owed.
So much for the government not having any substance. This wouldn’t have happened under Howard. Not if he’d been reelected every 3 years for the next millennium! This alone justifies Labor’s victory. Even if it really means they’re only putting on an extra 2 work experience kids.
PS: Fortunately, I just miss the cut
MayoFeral
You only miss the cut because of all those well hidden assets the tax office doesn’t know about!
Diogenes @ 339 thank you.
Good to hear that they are going for a balance between social, economic and environmental flows. Being at the cloaca end of the MDB certainly sharpens the senses!
The pollies having waited until there is bugger-all water in the system it is basically crisis management time. This means that none of the immediate options are good. Some may merely be less bad than others. It is also an absolute certainty that the pie is small enough to ensure that significant sectors will miss out. Meanwhile, record low inflows in May and not much better in June are in the nature of an evil omen for irrigators. Not looking too good at all.
The bit about Rann is difficult to understand. If he wanted to go Federal he would still need some sort of popular support base to get voted in. If so, how does appearing to sell out ensure that you maintain a popular support base in SA?
Boerwar
When I said Federal, I should have said Federal Labor President and whatever other high profile Fed jobs are going. He certainly doesn’t want a Federal seat, he wants something long-term behind the scenes.
Maywald is suffering acutely because her favourite excuse is no longer working. She loves the phrase “The Government can’t make it rain.” That worked quite well in summer and autumn which very dry in SA. The last few weeks it’s been pissing down (30mm in the last 36 hours) which has dented her enthusiasm for the phrase somewhat. Everyone can see millions of litres of stormwater literally going down the drain and we’re wondering why.
Basically, Diogenes, because stormwater is f***ing expensive to ‘harvest’.
It’s a bit like the old tank debate – surely, people say, we should whack water tanks on every house and that’ll drought proof them, when in fact tanks are one of the most expensive opitions for water storage and (if it doesn’t rain) only buy the householder a couple weeks more water.
Similarly, stormwater looks damn attractive but – as with anything to do with water – is nowhere near as simple as it looks.
Firstly, drains don’t go to a central point. In one street, the drains may go in many different directions – one might drain to the sewers, another to a nearby creek, another into a paddock, etc. To use the water effectively, these drains would need to be reconfigured so that all the water ended up in the one place. For even a small area of suburb, we’re starting to talk serious dollars – rejigging the drainage system will require not only streets but backyards to be dug up. If you’re really serious, given that all the water should end up in the same storage (multiple distribition points will bring its own set of problems) water will have to be pumped up hill or tunnels built.
Secondly, this water will need to be stored, treated and distributed. To get the water into a central place, requires multiple pumping stations to get it there and another set of pipes to redistribute it.
I’m a Victorian so I’m used to our water storage systems, so forgive me if the situation I’m describing isn’t relevant to you. Our water catchments are kept as pristine as possible, to minimise water contamination. Even then, water has to be treated – sometimes with several different measures – to be of drinkable standard.
Stormwater runs off roofs (which often carry a layer of dust and ash), into drains (obvious litter traps) – a degree of potential contamination higher than tanks. This means that this water would require a higher level of treatment than ‘normal’ catchment water.
I may be icing the cake a little – I’m a layman – but I think it’s more likely that I’ve overlooked expenses that a water expert would see. However, we get back to the problem that tanks have – efficient water storage and distribution does not come from little bits of water collected from here and there. Water is a bulk commodity and is most effectively gathered and distributed as such.
zoom
I should add that when we look at all that water going down the drain, it’s more a sense of frustration and helplessness than having a rational argument that it should be used. My argument was more a political one explaining SA’s disgust about water rather than thinking stormwater is the solution. Lots of comments on the blogs here talk about a civil war vs Qld/NSW/Vic due to water. I don’t think we’ve got all that many troops and generals here in SA so that one would be a long-term project.
That being said, aren’t there new suburbs being built which are configured to provide sustainable water from stormwater for the suburb as they are built? I understand that if you built the infrastructure as the houses go up, it can become cost-effective.
As an example about the Tiser’s campaign, I’ll link a site where they ask 16 “experts” on how to Save the Murray. I’m still struggling through understanding CC and haven’t got around to working out anything about water yet. If you asked a South Australian, they would all say that water/Murray is more important than CC to the future of SA, acknowledging that the two are linked.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/feature/ranked/1,,5017720,00.html
dogb@345
what’s the smartest way??:twisted:
hate that .
Finns- now I understand.
Diogenes @ 335
Thank you on info about Rann’s plans. Mayfield will not be the last pollie to lose a seat because of CC. CC mishandling was part and parcel of the end of the Howard Government and, depending on how CC stochastic events unfold, it is likely that other governments will end up going the same way. It is obviously a huge stressor already for the SA government.
Good to hear that Adelaide is getting some decent rain. These days nothing like a good fall of rain to lift the spirits, of most folk anyway. It still gives me the irrits whenever TV newsreaders in the middle of our worst drought on record call a sunny weekend without rain ‘good weather’. They are citified fools who just don’t get the scale of the tragedy that is unfolding in our farming areas.
BTW, I have seen some stuff on the Goyder Line heading South because of changes to long term rainfall patterns, thereby possibly putting the Clare Valley at risk as a production area. Now that would be a real vintage CC tragedy!
Dyno
#329
Your very detailed reply Dyno to my #326 Dyno does clarify I now understand it was a “possible” scenario , rather than from you viewpoint a “likely” scenario of Liberal Party’s demise Up to your clarifiaction post #329 , I’d been quite mystified frankley by your earlier post about ‘liberal party demise talk , given your stated politcal beliefs !!
Apart from your “possible” scenario , Doug and I ar debating another scenario (regarding th small “L” Liberal voters) Whilst I tend to be idealistic on Labor Party principals & policys and there benefits , but my studies over time of various politcal Party’s “positioning” & respective voters perceptons hav influenced my views of what is possible I can see merits in both your “possible” scenario , and also in Doug’s different again scenario , but unpersuaded so far
Taking your scenario for instanse through th 4 steps Dyno you outlined , I got to step 2 OK but only in a theoretical sense , was cautous step 3 may occur Also wondered at step 3/ where at that stage some of blocks of NON busines small “L” Liberal voters may be located , and who for
But Step 4/ was too much for me ! Actualy believe before step 4/ , and during step 3 if it commenced , clever Labor people i’d hope would prevent step 4/ ocuring and instead , see th wisdom in not being greedy (it is usualy fatal anywhere , includng politcs)
Even current 57% 2PP think i not “real deal” , feel perhaps up to 2% is disapproval/”flirting’ that is returnable to Liberal Party , with changed agenda & generational policys and a bettrer leader , so believe approx 55% to 45% is reality very tops Any big problems can reduce that 2% Also think small “L” liberal voters today probabley understand frustrations of Labor suporters when they had crazy ” ’sociialist left’ in Labor Party (and often dominating) , comparable to present Liberals problem having “dry conservative” wing in control
Am happy with Labor Party’s curent voter ‘left positioning’ and its continued
‘ownership’ of ” workers” , uninterupted since 1891 formation Its genuine ‘left’ policys for workers & its positioning has succesfully in politcal strategy left no room for Greens ever to move from ‘outer left’ to ‘Labor left’ It leaves th Liberals chance iof winning government , but to do so has to pinch all th middle (many of whom still ‘think left’) That requires alot of poor Labor decions & leaders & th reverse concurentley for th Liberal or a calamity
zoom @ 354 -
It’s actually easier than that. At least here. Most of the storm water in the Adelaide plain is channelled out to sea via only a handful of rivers/creaks. There are already a number of wetlands that have been constructed across the metro area that can filter out much of the contamination, and more could be constructed. And most importantly,there is a suitable aquifer to store the water We also have an expert on how to do all this working at Adelaide Uni.
According to his calculations the cost of the needed infrastructure is less than for the proposed billion dollar desal plant and could annually recover many times the quantity of water the plant could produce. Running costs would be a fraction of the huge amount required to desal salt water.
None of this is rocket science. One large council, Salisbury, has been harvesting it’s storm water this way and selling it to local industry for years.
But the government (and opposition) doesn’t want to know. So gigalitres of reasonably clean fresh water will be allowed to flow out to sea where it is killing the seaweed/grasses, to be thoroughly mixed with salt and then desalinated back into fresh water at a huge cost to taxpayers and the environment.
BTW-everyone who thinks the current problems couldn’t be foreseen should read the following from 2003: http://www.abc.net.au/stateline/sa/content/2003/s790327.htm
It also canvasses some of the solutions.
Mayo
#361
“One large council, Salisbury, has been harvesting it’s storm water this way and selling it to local industry for years.”
I’ve always assumed a cost/benefit plan by all Governmetns showed it up poorly , seeing th “idea” must hav been thought of by most ratepayers
Now that the Brisbane Lord Mayor has been signed up by the Pineapple Party by listing his name on their website, the collapse of the Liberal Party in Queensland means the Liberal Party no longer has any Minister or Lord mayor in any Federal, State or local government major city jurisdiction in Australia at present.
It is probably the first time that a country based party has set itself up to have such a major influence in major city politics, too.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/904?cp=2#comment-176742
Understand the symbolism of it, Diogenes, which is one of the reasons I now understand some of the issues (was advocating for policy changes along these lines and in the process got educated – a little).
One more thing, just while I think of it – stormwater has the same problem water tanks do, that if there isn’t any rain, you can’t capture it anyway.
As to the planning issues involved, yes, it’s common sense, in the same way that requiring all new houses to have ‘plumbing’ for optic fibre, water tanks (I’m not contradicting myself, every little bit helps), grey water recycling and solar panels is also. Unfortunately our mish mash of constitutions (Federal, State) and planning regimes (some state wide, some council by council) prevents some of these things happening as quickly as they should do.
Mayo, a bit dubious that naturally falling rain being discharged as stormwater can be doing environmental damage, unless of course you are referring to the pollutants it carries, which isn’t the fault of the stormwater (and should have been filtered out through those wetlands you mention). You do have to consider the environmental impacts of this water NOT going down the drains as well – in a natural system, it would all have flowed into the sea and the local marine environment would have evolved with this ‘expectation’ of freshwater flushing. If it’s all diverted to human use (and in an ideal stormwater capture system, you would expect the same water to be recycled almost indefinitely) then there WILL be some environmental cost to the marine systems.
I’m also dubious about ‘government doesn’t want to know’ claims. Why wouldn’t it? In practical terms, if there’s a workable solution that’s cheaper than other options on the table, governments will leap at it with open arms.
The advantage desal plants have over water tanks, dams, stormwater capture etc is that these all rely on rain and desals don’t. For Governments looking down the barrel of zero water allocations, this makes desal plants very attractive….if not downright essential.
zoom @ 364 -
Ever widening areas of sea grasses/weed in the waters off Adelaide have been dying for decades. It’s not pollutants in the water, but the water itself.
Yes,there was water runoff before the city was built, but only a tiny fraction of what ends up there now.
As for needing rain to make such a system work, well this winter the Adelaide plain has had better than average rainfalls. But most of this has ended up in the gulf and come summer we’ll be back to draining what little is left in the Murray to flush dunnies!
Why is Rann going for desal instead of strmwater harvesting? In a word, PANIC. It’s the quick and sexy fix for a government that did nothing for at least 6 years despite clear warnings from the very experts it continues to ignore on water harvesting.
As per my previous, a local council was able to set up a stormwater scheme in its area. Google ‘Mawson Lakes’ to see how much water they have available. Over 4,000 homes in the area will have dual water reticulation by 2010 and the water in the lakes is from recyled stormwater. A lot of the big manufacturers in the area get water from the scheme too.
Some links:
http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2006/s2158231.htm
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23661217-5014332,00.html
I’m a fan of Kate Ellis, she’s got tons of charisma, and she’s a good sort too!
But I concede that Sports Minister would be the easiest gig to have in the ministry LOL
I like MayoFeral’s points on saving stormwater. As he says, Adelaide is a special case, being on the plains and all runoff pointed westwards already. It certainly makes more sense than desalinisation.
I wonder about the future of the Murray-Darling basin, as do most SA and former SA people (like me). The inertia is very alarming, even if the politics makes such a condition likely.
Politically, it is not very likely that the upriver irrigaters will be removed or even restricted much in the short term, even if the case for getting out of cotton and rice gets stronger.
Politically and economically, however, it should not be too costly to convert various open channel irrigation schemes (in the MIA, the Upper Murray and various tributaries) to the Israeli-type drip schemes. It would lead to less water usage, less loss through evaporation and less salinisation.
Anyone have any further information?
6 Qld properties up for sale with water storages full holding 300GL of water. Should the govt buy these and send the water down the Darling?
I also have seen references that over areas of native vegetation rainclouds are seen but over adjacent farms are clear skies: if true this suggests some marginal land should be returned to native vegetation and so hopefully keeping the Goyder line where it is
Jen@356
Well, if I had to choose I think this would be right up there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluoroacetic_acid
No antidote, slow acting, may well be completely metabolised by time of death and even suboptimal doses cause nasty side effects including severe brain damage.
And before you ask, I’m a chemist. I deal with this sort of thing every day. Forewarned is forearmed.
Oh, just in case, I was only answering Jen’s toungue in cheek question relating to the polonium poisoning of Litivienko. Please don’t take this to mean I’m suggesting anything for god’s sake.
Cheers dogb. And I can get that at Priceline??
btw – who said it was tongue in cheek?
Jen@371
Not quite, but it’s a damn sight easier to get than Polonium. Actually as an Australian Green you probably know all about sodium monofluoroacetate – it’s common name is 1080.
Jen@372
(Walks away looking slightly worried)
I see one of Costello’s good mates, Peter Hartcher, has it firmly grasped in both hands as he pumps up his friend. The ALP would be saying “bring him on” surely.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/peter-hartcher/costello-haunts-labor-hardheads/2008/08/07/1217702246784.html
Sorry William, this is very very off topic but it has to be said as our existence on this earth here is on the line.
At Cern, the European nuclear research organisation in Geneva, they are going to switch on the world’s most powerful particle accelerator on 10 September, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC).
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7547118.stm
However, some scientists have claimed that if something goes wrong a mini black hole will be created and swallowed up the earth.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7468966.stm
So why are we jumping up and down about few human rights abused in China or the Iranian nuke bombs? We could be wiped out by 10 September. We really should be jumping up and down at the French-Swiss border.
Please tell me you have the sarcasm lever pushed into overdrive Finns?
(Love to see the correlation between the scientists claiming the end of the earth and the CC deniers…)
Amigo FINNS
#376
“However, some scientists have claimed that if something goes wrong a mini black hole will be created and swallowed up the earth.”
So we could all go to th never nevers , before our solar farms hav even been set up And all to find out where th cosmos came from
ron
Think of the bright side. They might be able to solve the nuclear fusion problem and fix all our energy needs.
Finns
The event horizon of the black hole generated with those masses of particle is probably about a millionth of a millimetre. As long as you’re not in that 0.00000000000000001 m, you should be safe.
Amigo Ronnie, actually, what really worries me is not that we might disappear into the black hole. Is really that we might not get to see Cossie publishes his book and becomes the Opp Leader.
Isn’t there a relevant comparison between the Swiss and the Saddam Hussein to be made here?
Peter Hartcher work has always been degraded by his inability to set aside political bias.
If he is really pumping for Costello then he is a fool pure and simple and has never observed Costello outside of QT.
Odd that a person be considered PM material based soley on his persona in QT, as he has done nothing anywhere else to suggest he should be a candidate.
Costello’s greatest achievement since 1994 was to remain a compliant doormat for Howard. He has shown himself a coward at every turn – in challenging for the leadership and in stopping Howard spending damaging to the economy (which he acknowledges). Not to mention a reduction in Education, Health and Infrastructure investment, something that might be useful in suring up the economy.
And as Keating observered he is without imagination, a policy mouse. A decade as Treasurer and couldn’t think up a policy. This is their white knight?
In fact I believe I saw a cartoon of Costello as a doormat in front of Kirribili at one time last year.
382 Thomas
It’s even worse when you consider that his so called abilities in QT were under the auspices of a ridiculously biased speaker.
It’s one of my dearest wishes to see tip go up against Gillard in the new parliament. She’ll tear him a new one.
FINNS
#380
“Amigo Ronnie, actually, what really worries me is not that we might disappear into the black hole. Is really that we might not get to see Cossie publishes his book and becomes the Opp Leader”.
Amigo , Actualy seeing according to Diogenosky’s calcs of space of millionth of a millimetre , plus barbarian conversions thats 0.00000000000000001 m , equal to th size of Cossie’s classic memoirs book …..and space left over for his heart
New morgan 55-45
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4313/
Morgan says -
“On a two-party preferred basis ALP support is unchanged at 55% while L-NP support is 45%, this is despite much media debate on who should be leader of the Coalition — Nelson, Turnbull or Costello.”
You have to laugh, it may be because of the leadership that the result hasn’t changed or that, because nothing has changed in regard to the opposition leadership nothing has changed in the polls one way or the other.
New thread.
How odd, you go to Morgans site and that poll doesn’t show and yet the link James gives works. What is going on?
Gary, all sorts of strange things are going on at Morgan at the moment, like that 1991 Senate poll leading to a broken link which has been there for a week now. I and I guess James too have learned about this poll from Morgan’s email alert. But like I said – new thread.