The September 6 by-elections for Mayo and Lyne initially loomed as fizzers, with Labor showing no inclination post-Gippsland to test the waters in unwinnable seats. They have instead respectively emerged as mildly and enormously interesting, thanks to the entry of non-major party players. In Mayo, housing tycoon Bob Day will bring a cashed-up campaign to bear against the Liberals as the candidate of Family First, having failed to win Liberal preselection for Mayo after unsuccessfully contesting Makin last year. Day would nonetheless have to be considered a long shot against Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs, but it’s a very different story in Lyne where independent state MP Rob Oakeshott has been rated the “clear favourite” by Antony Green. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Nationals polling puts his approval rating in the electorate at over 70 per cent, and says the party is concerned Labor will “direct resources to Mr Oakeshott’s campaign”.
Lyne covers a 100 kilometre stretch of coastline up to 400 kilometres north of Sydney, the main population centres being Port Macquarie (home to 33 per cent of the electorate’s population) and Taree (14 per cent). Smaller centres include Old Bar, Lake Cathie and Harrington on the coast, and Wauchope and Wingham further inland. The National/Country Party has held the seat since its creation in 1949. The electorate covers the entirety of Oakeshott’s state seat of Port Macquarie, which provides Lyne with 55 per cent of its voters. Oakeshott won Port Macquarie as the Nationals candidate at a 1996 by-election ahead of independent John Barrett, who had come within 233 votes of defeating Mark Vaile as Liberal candidate for Lyne in 1993. He was promoted to the front bench after the 1999 election, taking the sport and recreation, fisheries and ports portfolios. In March 2002 he quit the party, claiming its local branches were controlled by property developers and questioning whether the party was still relevant to an electorate transformed by tourism and demographic change. The Nationals campaigned aggressively against him during the 2003 campaign, in particular over his support for drug law reform, but he was overwhelmingly re-elected with 69.7 per cent of the primary vote. This fell slightly to 67.1 per cent at the March 2007 election, his two-candidate preferred margin down from 32.8 per cent to a still formidable 28.2 per cent.
The Nationals candidate is Rob Drew, who was mayor of Port Macquarie until the council was sacked by the state government in February. The Macleay Argus reports he won a preselection vote ahead of Taree solicitor Quentin Schneider by 48 votes to 15. State party leader Andrew Stoner was reportedly urged by “senior colleagues” to throw his hat into the ring, but perhaps sensibly decided to stay put. The prospect of an Oakeshott candidacy was a cloud on the horizon from the time of Vaile’s departure, with Oakeshott earlier threatening to run against Vaile at the 2004 election. There has also been intermittent speculation over the years that he might be enlisted by the Liberals, although this might never have been more than wishful thinking by the party. Most recently, powerbrokers including Senator Bill Heffernan approached him to contest the by-election as the Liberal candidate, hoping that his success might push the Coalition further along the road to a merger. The party has instead opted to sit out the contest, aware that its presence would only increase the already high likelihood of an Oakeshott victory.
The other thing to be noted is that win, lose or draw, Oakeshott’s candidacy will initiate a state by-election for Port Macquarie – though that is a subject for another post. While it would be open to Oakeshott to re-contest Port Macquarie, owing to what Imre Salusinszky calls “a quirk in NSW electoral law”, Oakeshott has declared that such a move would be “unfair to the community”.
342 Comments
Don’t forget your Greens.
Lyne:- http://greens.org.au/lyne
Mayo:- http://sa.greens.org.au/Mayo/
I’ll change my name from oakeshott country to avoid confusion. I also admit to being a member of the ALP in Port Macquarie
Great summary William. I am still predicting Oakeshott to get a 55 -60% primary but there are a number of points that may become significant in the next few weeks.
1. The effect of the dismissal of Mayor Drew’s council. This followed an inquiry into the Glasshouse (findings are on the net). Under Drew’s administration a project to build a simple 500 seat auditorium turned into a convention centre with all possible bells and whistles that could eventually cost the ratepayers $80M. The Nationals have portrayed this as a conspiracy by Iemma and Oakeshott to destroy a Nationals’ bastion of power.
Somehow I don’t think this interpretation is playing well in Wauchope. There was no great public outpourings of grief at council’s demise despite several attempts to stir it up. My reading is that most residents, even those who support the Glasshouse, are still shocked at the council’s financial inepptitude. Drew’s pre-selection is more an indicator that there was no one else rather than an attempt to play on public sympathy for his dismissal. His pre-selection can only benefit Oakeshott
2. The tone of the campaign. I have no doubt that Oakeshott’s vote increased in the 2003 election when the Nationals started to throw dirt depicting him as a drug supporting dilletente. The early indications are that this will be a dirty campaign and that can only help Oakeshott’s vote
3. “Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Nationals polling puts his approval rating in the electorate at over 70 per cent, and says the party is concerned Labor will “direct resources to Mr Oakeshott’s campaign”.” I agree with the polling but while many ALP members will enjoy handing out his HTVs what financial support can we give him – the proceeds from the cake stall in Horton St? This is Nationals disinformation to attempt to make Oakeshott as a Labor tool. He will not need or want ALP financial support
“This is Nationals disinformation to attempt to make Oakeshott as a Labor tool.”
I agree. A convenient rebuttal is a mention of the none-too-subtle attempts by the Libs to woo Oakeshott to their side.
(An ALP member in Port Macquarie?! You must be pretty lonely. Most of the people I met up there were screaming Libs. But despite that, Port is still a very nice place.)
Brian Deegan, the fomer magistrate who lost a son in the Bali bomb horror, announced today he would not be contesting the Mayo by-election. In the 2004 general election, Deegan went after Alexander Downer in Mayo and scored a primary vote of 15.15 percent (to Labor’s 16.49 percent). After preferences, Deegan finished with 38.19 percent.
The washup over the Lyne and now Port Macquarie by-elections is the now selfish response of the Liberals who want to contest at least one of these seats. When Peta Seaton retired from state politics in the lead up to the 2007 NSW election Pru Coward was quickly parasuted into her seat although pru was not the sitting member for Goulbourn and the Nationals had every right to field a candidate it chose not to. The Liberals should return the favour in relation to these two seats as they lie in Nationals heartland.
Anew breed is emerging out of Lyne.There numbers are growing slowly but surely.Labor supporters with green tinges and very strong independent streaks.
Paul, neither the state seat of Port Macquarie nor the fed seat of Lyne (which has Port Macquarie as its largest pop centre) really qualify as “Nationals heartland” any more. The times they are a changin’. These seats aren’t hereditary fiefdoms, and may the best man (or woman) win. Sea-changers (especially retirees) have turned Port Macquarie (both the seat and the city) into a Liberal-leaning enclave. The Libs can’t be blamed if the demographics have changed, and this is no more true than for the Mid-North Coast.
One by one, the Libs and Labor are prising the Nats off the eastern seaboard, as the coastline becomes increasingly urbanized. Lyne is/was one of their last toeholds.
Mr B… The Antony Green link goes to “The world today”
Yes, the World Today report contains the quote from him that I’m using.
Paul Nash @5, you forget the Southern Highlands background.
When John Fahey moved to Federal politics in 1996, the Nationals contested his seat of Southern Highlands. They spent a fortune on the campaign and finished just ahead of the Liberals on the primary vote, but Labor finished third and directed preferences to the Liberals.
What the Liberals never forgave was that the funds spent in Southern Highlands trying to defeat a Liberal were not spent in the Clarence by-election held the same day. The Nationals lost that seat to Labor, increasing the Carr government’s majority from 1 to 3. The Liberals were understandably furious.
So in 1997, when Wendy Machin retired, the Liberals were determined to run in the Port Macquarie by-election. In the end the only reason they didn’t was because Liberal leader Peter Collins put his leadership on the line to prevent it happening. Oakeshott was elected without a Liberal opponent.
The only way the Liberals won’t run in Port Macquarie is if Barry O’Farrell does something similar. The Liberal Party organisation always wants to run in urban seats like Port Macquarie. Go back and look at the Port Macquarie Federal figures in both 1984 and 1993, the last occassions in which there was a three-cornered contest. The Liberals oupolled the Nationals in Port Macquarie.
I’m also unsure what Imre means by a ‘quirk of NSW electoral law’ saying that Oakeshott could re-contest his own seat at a by-election. All that needs to happen is that the issue of writs for Port Macquarie be delayed until after the Lyne by-election, a perfectly acceptable delay. That can happen in any state as there are no rules on when writs for a by-election must be issued.
Back in 1974, the sitting MP for Goulburn Ron Brewer resigned to contest the Federal election. The Askin government didn’t issue the writ until after Brewer’s defeat, at which time he was able to contest the vacancy in his old seat.
The real story is what would have happened had Andrew Stoner agreed to contest Lyne as the National candidate. The NSW Labor government would have made sure writs for Oxley and Port Macquarie by-elections were issued BEFORE the Lyne poll to ensure Stoner couldn’t get back into state parliament if he lost Lyne.
Just a minor quibble Billbowe – Wauchope and Wingham arent on the Pacific highway. One is on the obviously named “Wingham Road” that comes out of Taree, Wauchope is on the Oxley Highway that joins up with the Pacific highway rather than actually being on the Pacific Highway itself.
Possum, love your work over at your place – very funny.
Thanks Possum, I’d managed to get that past OC a.k.a. MidNorthCoast. Now corrected.
What do you mean Jayne?
This isn’t an attempt at disinformation is it?
Oakeshott is not a) a Labor supporter b) particularly green or c) very strongly independent – he always says he is a conservative who left the Nationals because of the influence of the local white shoes and the increased influence he could have as an independent. The Liberals keep seeing him as one of his own. Any local Labor support of him is purely on a basis of ‘your enemy’s enemy is my friend.’
Interestingly Truss in the World Today has gone with the Labor connection – if that is the best the Nationals can do they are in for a very big beating.
BTW Taree and Port Macquarie are not technically on the Pacific Hwy either having been bypassed some years ago!
Judge back up at comment 1.
The Greens in the Lyne election might get to achieve something the Nationals wont.
Win a booth – Elands!
Aww midnorthcoast, now look what you’ve gone and done!
With William furiously re-writing away, do you think it would be a good time to state that you can throw rocks from Taree and hit the highway (OK, Cundletown – pretty close) and that Port Macquarie these days has basically expanded out to the highway itself?
Nah – we’ll wait for him to rewrite some more!
Antony,
The Southern Highlands saga goes back to 1988 when the seat of Southern Highlands was created to replace Goulburn. The National Party MP for Goulburn (Robert Webster) was forced to vacate the seat so that the Liberal member for Camden (John Fahey) could move to a safer seat. Many people in the Nationals were annoyed about giving up one of their seats for an MP who couldn’t be bothered campaigning in a marginal seat.
(It’s ironic that Robert Webster later became a member of the Liberal Party and until a few months ago was their NSW State Treasurer).
Poss, imagine if they had workers at the other booths.
57.8% primary vote(2007 Fed) that will rock the foundations of the 2PP club.
LOL
Judge – if they had workers at *some* of the other booths in the electorate, election night coverage would take a back seat to clips of rampaging cow cockies wielding blood soaked 4 by 2’s .
So saying, the Comboyne booth seem to be generally peaceful considering. I’m sure it has nothing to do with a large chunk of the Greens out that way being roughnut dykes built like Brahma bulls.
Actually, my post ceased to mention the Pacific Highway after the PC-inspired rewrite.
Excellent inside info. on Lyne Poss.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/08/06/all-you-need-to-know-about-the-lyne-by-election/
Extra banana out tonight.
midnorthcoast,I can assure you I am no National stooge.Just saying it as I see it. After living in the area for over 50 years I have seen things slowly change.Sorry if you have mistaken my comment.
Jayne – with a decent local member that could stick the third rate spiv developers (like what happened at Harrington, Old Bar and the outskirts of Port)) back in their box, could help build a financial coalition to permanently fix the river mouths at the Manning and could assist with the development of an upstairs economy in Port and Taree (no small ask – only world peace as the chaser!) – Lyne would change very very quickly.
@18
Not quite right, Barry.
The redistribution for the 1988 NSW election increased the Legislative Assembly from 99 seats to 109. Southern Highlands was one of the ten new seats created. John Fahey, the sitting member for Camden, had always had his home base at Bowral, which was included in Southern Highlands rather than Camden following the redistribution. (Camden, on the other hand, became more favourable for Labor as a result of the redistribution adding Campbelltown suburbs to it.) Fahey ran for Southern Highlands and won: this had no effect on Robert Webster, who was re-elected as the National Party member for Goulburn, which had not been ‘replaced’ by Southern Highlands.
The thing was that the Coalition had made an issue of opposing the expansion of the Legislative Assembly and went on to honour their election promise to reverse it. So another redistribution came into effect for the 1991 election, with the Legislative Assembly reduced from 109 to 99 seats and Goulburn one of the ten seats abolished. The town of Goulburn was instead incorporated into the seat of Southern Highlands (and in a knock-on effect Camden’s boundaries shifted southwards again, although not as far as Bowral, making it more favourable to the Liberals again) and Webster ended up running for the Legislative Council instead of opposing Fahey.
Poss,I like to think it can all happen.
It will be interesting to see if Jamie Harrison will now run, as he stated he would a few weeks ago. He was a local councillor who opposed the Glasshouse. He got a surprising 4% at the 2007 federal election. The spivs accussed him of being an Oakeshott glove puppet, if he is then I presume he will now withdraw from the contest.
Of course he is much more famous for losing his trousers at the local Irish tavern
http://blogs.smh.com.au/sit/archives/2007/02/embarrassments_bags_of_trouble.html
Just looking at the hard core of hard corest cow cocky vote in Lyne – those Man of the Land types that have National Party haemoglobin running through their veins, in the Hannam Vale, Johns River and King Creek booths the voters delivered the Nats primary votes of 47.1%, 56.8% and 61% respectively at the last Fed election. During the last State election, they voted Oakeshott 54.7%, 52.3% and 53.8% respectively on the primary vote.
Anyone know what the largest TPP margin for a seat in modern Federal history is?
Oakeshott must be approaching close to 75-77% TPP.
re: J-D @#25
J-D,
You are indeed correct about the redistributions and the election at which Robert Webster was forced out. Thank you for correcting me!
That aside, people in the National Party were annoyed that Robert Webster was forced to give up his seat so John Fahey could stay in Southern Highlands instead of returning to his original seat of Camden. Hence the reason the Nationals contested that 1996 by-election in Southern Highlands.
BTW, when was the number of members reduced to the current 93?
Barry and J-D. You’re referring to the 1991 election, not 1988. And one of the legacies of 1988 was that the Nationals had a poor choice of candidate in Burrinjuck which allowed the Liberals to win the seat. So when Webster resigned, his seat was divided between two Liberal seats, where if the Nationals had won Burrinjuck in 1988, the party could have resolved it internally.
And I could toss in Wal Fife and John Sharp in Hume at the 1993 election as well.
But the point the Liberals made in 1996, about the Nationals spending money trying to beat the Liberals and in the process losing a seat to Labor on the North Coast still stands. It was why the Liberals (disastrously) ran in Clarence at the 1999 state election, and the bitterness between the two parties cost the Coalition Clarence. There hasn”t been a three cornered contest at a state election since, but the Liberal Party organisation is very keen to run in any Port Macquarie by-election, unless the nationals have a stunning candidate.
Barry, the Legislative Assembly was reduced to 93 at the 1999 election.
Antony, from the Nationals’ point of view John Sharp knocking off Wal Fife at the 1993 election was payback for Fife knocking off Stephen Lusher at the 1984 election.
Is there any word on Oakeshott nominating a “successor” (i.e, another rural independent) to stand in Port Macquarie?
Or is that seat going to be handed on a silver platter to the NSW Coalition?
re #30
Antony,
Thank you for your reply.
I stand corrected about 1991 instead of 1988 (J-D also pointed out my error).
The Nats are developing a habit of choosing poor candidates (or may be it is harder to get a poor candidate elected in a country area).
The Nats candidate in the 1996 Clarence by-election was admitted to hospital with a stress related illness during the campaign. I suspect that if the Libs had nominated a candidate in this by-election, they may have outpolled the Nats.
The bitterness between Libs and Nats seems to go on tit-for-tat.
It is my understanding that the Libs were annoyed about Albury in 1978 & Gosford in 1984.
J-D @#31
Thank you for that!
the judge @ 22
Thanks for the link. Couldn’t agree more with the map “all you need to know about the lyne by-election”
There’s an interesting Obama poll write-up over at Daily Kos.
GB
#36
August 6th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
“There’s an interesting Obama poll write-up over at Daily Kos.”
What has that got to do with th Lyne By-electon Most Aussies interest in US’s 2008 curent Presidential Electon is how it affects our ‘oz’ Mcain is more ‘free trade’ (good for ‘oz’) and , Obama is more ‘protectionist’ (this is very bad for our ‘oz’ Exporters especialy our Farmers & our ‘oz’ manufactured products) Both McCain & Obama ar financed by big Oily companys (if one checks there donations & lobbyists lists) , so both very unhealthy on Consevation as both want extended off shore oil drilling (so a massive minus for our ‘oz’ World based consevation policys eg on marine life & ecologies Both McCain & Obama do not suport ratifying Kyoto and hav never even said th words ever from there oily mouths (so both very negative for ‘oz’ support of Kyoto and CC) Both McCain & Obama could not ever get appointed to any ‘oz’ Govt Statutory Board or even to Fed or State Govt position (as both hav numerous very unsavourary associations in there hoistorys (so very bad for responsable credible
‘governanse’ , so a negative for ‘oz’ in expecting a fair or honest go re US vs ‘oz’ economic & other relations
So stay with our Rob Oakeshott in Lyne , beter than either yank for ‘oz’
Th most signifant politcal point about Lyne’s by electon I think has actualy been made by WILLIAM’s comments editorial here : “In March 2002 he quit the party, claiming its local branches were controlled by property developers and questioning whether the party was still relevant to an electorate transformed by tourism and demographic change. ”
Even as we speak th Nats Party have not twigged to there flwaed overall strategic politcal and branding policys & planning Hell here is a seat they’ve held Federaly continously for 60 years no less, and ar on a ‘bad nose and noise’ with voters One would hav thought Nats Party (and indeed a Liberal Federal Executive ) would see politcal reality or at least objectively queston why IF they did so , it might help thems understand part of there almost irrelevence Federaly at 43% to 45% 2PP in all recent polling trends in 2008 For mine well may they saviour there ‘purity’ of yesterdays philosophies , policys outcomes & priorities , rather than voters ‘generatonal agenda patterns & outcomes expectatons , and so I honestly hope National Party’s Lyne electon defeat is not so so devastating , that even they will twig
Possum @ 28 I suspect the highest TPP margin would be the fed seat that runs to the west of Mildura, but I don’t really know for sure and I don’t even know the name of the electorate
There isn’t an electorate that runs to the west of Mildura. Mildura is on the northern border of the electorate of Mallee (called Wimmera before 1949).
The safest seat on TPP margin atm is Batman, sitting on a 26.0% margin for Labor. I can’t find any seat from 1993 onwards that beats that margin.
So Oakeshott, if he gets 77% TPP, as Possum suggests he might, will be winning by the biggest margin of any federal MP in this century (or millenium)!
Forrest has had some big wins in Mallee including 74.75% in 04, but I think the highest recent TPP margin is Batman from 07 when ferguson won 75.95%
Morris Iemma scored 83.97% 2PP in the state seat of Lakemba in 2007.
JD @ 39 Thank you, you’re right. What I do remember is some travel out that way and feeling uncomfortable in the social atmosphere. There was a fair bit of scorn and a fair bit of barely suppressed anger at the city mob. Post modernism, relativism, complexity and shades of grey did not feature very much in the discourses reported in the local MSM. I discussed the ‘feel’ of the place with some locals who pointed out to me at the time that the seat had the highest margin in the country. The interesting thing is that Mildura is a largish regional city and there is not enough of a labour vote there to give the nats (I believe?) any sort of run for their money. I think this has been a fairly long term sort of thing and if the nats do hold it, it might be the last nat seat to hold out.
The vibes were getting some extra juice from the bloody drought (quite a normal drought really, and not as bad as the Federation Drought, they hastened to explain). That the Murray had virtually stopped flowing and that what was left in it was getting increasingly salty was also causing some anxiety. Not happy chappies.
The last time the Liberals ran a candidate in Mallee was in 1993 (when the then incumbent Nationals member retired), and the Nationals candidate (still the incumbent member now) beat the Liberal by only 50.5% to 49.5% (primaries Nationals 37.7%, Liberals 32.5%, Labor 26.%).
Will Mo Ie even be running as an endorsed ALP candidate next time around?
Hey Ron, stop harshing my mellow. I’m just as Aussie as the next bloke. This site’s all about poll tragics, and I’m interested about what’s happening in the U.S. – maybe not on the same gut level as I would be for an Australian general election, but still interested.
Being interested in what’s going on in other countries doesn’t mean you’re any less interested in what’s happening in this country – though I confess to finding bi-elections in safe conservative seats a little ho-hum.
And let’s stop this nonsense that there’s no difference between someone on the centre-left and a candidate on the far-right – did the Howard years teach people nothing?
One of the more interesting things about polls is comparing attitudes in this country with those overseas. For instance, I find it interesting that Australian women tend to be more politically conservative than women in the U.S. Doesn’t everyone else find that interesting? Would anyone what to take a stab at the reasons why?
Bi-elections?….sorry.
There are two of them…
GB
#46
“And let’s stop this nonsense that there’s no difference between someone on the centre-left and a candidate on the far-right – did the Howard years teach people nothing? ”
What they taught is to think , and listen to what a politican say & what is policys state So GB , don’t let facts get in th way of partisan support IF a phony ‘left’ candidate supports ‘right’ views & policys , he is still a phony , irrespective of what tag he claims to wear Of course if you wish to dispute th policy specifics I outlined to demonstate that point (which ar on th public record ) , I await your coment
I am a partisan – and proud of it!
No problems with holding a politicians feet to the fire – in fact, it’s essential. But there were a lot of people talking tweedle-dum-tweedle-dee in the US in 2000 and voted for Nader. What did they get? A war in Iraq that simply wouldn’t have happened under a Democratic administration.
The same is true in Australia. I know of Lefties in Australia who voted for Howard in ‘96 out of sheer disdain for the Keating government (much of it justified). They were taught a lesson I dare say they’ll never forget.
And if I were an American, I would have supported John Edwards because he was more clear-cut – more Left – when it came to things like universal health care. But there’s something perverse about inististing there’s no difference between centre-Left (Rudd, Obama) and far-Right (Howard, McCain). It’s dangerous nonsense.
Are Sydney and Melbourne far apart or close together? It depends on your perspective. If you are an astronaut looking down from the moon, they’re about equally far away, and the difference is negligible–and this would be even more emphatically the case if you were in orbit around Proxima Centauri. The difference between Sydney and Melbourne looks a lot bigger, on the other hand, if you’re in Albury or Canberra.
It’s the same in politics. It is meaningless to ask whether Labor and Liberal are politically similar or politically diverse unless you first establish what your standard of comparison is. (It is indisputably false to say that there’s _no_ difference between them, but for some people–_depending on their own political position, which therefore needs to be defined to make the discussion meaningful_–the difference might be negligible.)
My feet are firmly planted on the ground and Melbourne’s a bloody long way away.
I get a sense that this very dangerous notion that not a lot separates the major parties in Australia is on the wane. It’ll probably return with vengeance when people on the Left forget what the Howard/Bush years were like.
It’s such an easy thing to say: they’re all alike, there’s bugger all to choose between them. But I just can’t fathom how anyone could honestly deny there’s a vast difference between the Rudd and Howard Governments? Don’t people read newspapers? Much of our politics is a little to the left of America’s, but the same is true there.
Disagree all you like with Rudd and Obama, but let’s finally put this dubious notion of no difference to rest.
Quite co-incidentally I was talking to a western Sydney ALP suburban branch president yesterday evening. His “mail” is Costa, a country member, will go soon and Mo is finished and will be gone by March.
A purely unsubstantiated rumour but there you have it… what are blogs for anyway?
GB, it looks like an important difference to me too. But I recognise that that is a result of where I’m standing. From the point of view of, say, Fidel Castro, the difference doesn’t look vast. In order to disagree with this assessment, you have to disagree with Castro’s point of view. I’m happy to say that I do, I’m just saying that you can’t separate the issues. If somebody comes here and says that from their point of view the difference between Howard and Rudd is insignificant, I’m happy to say that in that case there must be something wrong with their point of view, but I don’t imagine I can argue a contrary case without at the same time (at least implicitly) attacking their underlying position.
Is that clearer?
Albert Ross
#53
“what are blogs for anyway?” To pass on you did , some end up occuring , although those rumours about Costello having ticker will never happen
GB
#52
“how anyone could honestly deny there’s a vast difference between the Rudd and Howard Governments? ”
I hav seen a number (but not all) disengenuous Greens suporters say here on this site that Rudd is ” a consevative” For those Greens posters it is a cheap “non ticker” way of saying there’s no vast diference between Labor and Liberal policys
Unfortunately one has to ignore many US politcans , because th lines of ‘left’ and ‘right’ ar blurred in th US by some clever US politcans who bullsh.t and ar plastic As mentioned in #37 th 2 current candidates will be bad for ‘oz’ , being oiliness phony Obama who pretends to be ‘left’ , but his written policys say different for example his policys ar not 100% for universal healthcare at all and do not support Kyoto ratificaton And McCain who is a maverick ‘right’ Republican BOTH ar all over th “left” and “right”‘ place and flip flop on fundamentel core issues However John Edwards is a fair dinkum ‘left’ politican
In ‘oz’ , we hav been fortunate our culture makes it imposible for politicans
to avoid being clearly ‘left’ vs ‘right’ This has at least meant for a “right” Howard to get away with getting re-elected (whilst th voters knew he was ‘right’) he had to ‘con’ middle leaning voters with $ bribes & spin about interst rates (and with poor Labor Leaders/ campaigns helping him) Finally after 8 years th ‘right’ Howard thought he could get away with an extreme ‘right’ policy (W/C) and got caught out by a good ‘Left’ leader in Labor Kevin Rudd
Politics – especially nowadays – is very simple.
I’m a rank-and-file member of a union. Under workchoices many people I know could have lost their house or gone to prison simply for taking part in trade union activity that would be considered normal and perfectly legal in any other democracy.
With what were centre-Right parties being captured by people with very extreme views, to view politics nowadays as some kind of dry, academic exercise simply defies reality.
There are a lot of law-abiding people who will now not go to prison. Liberals and Republicans have made politics very simple and clear-cut.
The libs have wimped out and will NOT nominate a candidate for Lyne.
Oakshott to break 80% mark….
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/08/2329128.htm?section=justin
wimped out? With oakshott running it makes a lot of bloody sense.
GB
#56
“Politics – especially nowadays – is very simple”
Yes , simple for phoney politcans , everything is packaged into a 15 second TV grab or a controlled press conference Voters therefore who then then vote by just relying on th Party’s name tag ar foolish They may as well just pre vote all there votes for a particular Party 30 years in advance , then we’d hav PM’s elected who ar not even yet born
Need to listen to what is promised in politcal election campaigns and what there policys state specificaly , and if not happy change Party vote or vote informal
I’ll leave yous guys here Labor has won again A great day Morgans latest poll 55% to 45% Just where ar those anti Labor forces as voters certainly like what they see in Sir Kevin todate
I called Gippsland early for the Nats but I think Oakeshott will win Lyne.
The Nats can’t win this type of seat while they’re in coalition in opposition.
There are three options for the Nationals:
1) Merge with the Liberals (might work in Queensland, won’t work anywhere else).
2) Steady as she goes (and keep losing seats when sitting members retire).
3) Quit the coalition and be independent (as per Brendon Grylls in WA).
ron, you’ve simply ignored what GB says about industrial relations. Do you really think there’s no difference between Labor and the Coalition on industrial relations? Or is it a difference that doesn’t matter to you? Or would you rather just dodge the issue because you don’t want to disturb your preconceptions?
Only a few days left for an independent Labor person to show the flag by nominating for Lyne and Mayo. C’mon guys and gals! Fill the void left by the ALP.
J-D
#62
Given you would hav read my #55 , #59 and #60 posts collectively , I can only assume you ar also deluded by that oiliness phoney as well , who carrys a ‘left tag’ , but has ‘right’ policys Thought you guys could hav put up a more clever argument
#64
Ron, I have read your posts, and none of them actually look at any specific issues and the actual positions of the parties on the issues, only at your generalised perception, not backed by any concrete evidence. Once again you have failed to confront, for example, the specific issue GB raised, that of industrial relations.
It’s a simple question: do you agree that there is a real difference between Labor and the Coalition on industrial relations? If you don’t want to answer it, nobody can make you, but the implication that you prefer to avoid anything that would call your preconceptions into question is obvious.
Thanks J-D. I find this reassuring. If I’d have said the same thing say 3 years ago, lots of people would have come out of the woodwork agreeing with Ron.
But I get a sense that most people on the Left – even people who are perennially disappointed by the ALP – just can’t make that argument any more. Some repeat the same old tweedle-dum-tweedle-dee mantra, but it’s half-hearted at best.
I think if something no longer fits reality, drop it.
Michelle Grattan on this by-election.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/nats-face-vaile-of-tears/2008/08/09/1218139160473.html
GB, don’t get me wrong. I can see both sides of the argument. If somebody were to say frankly ‘Yes, there is a difference between Labor and the Coalition on industrial relations (and some other things), but _from my perspective_ that difference is just not important’, I would respect that. It’s legitimate for people to have different perspectives on these things. It’s Ron’s refusal to acknowledge that there is any difference on industrial relations at all, preferring instead to repeat his mantra, that I find suspicious.
I think what a lot of people really feel (and not just on the left) is that there isn’t as much difference between Labor and the Coalition as they would like there to be. That’s legitimate too–and to be honest, it’s the way I usually feel myself. But it’s not the same as saying that there’s _no_ difference–which is untrue now, and was also untrue three years ago. It was untrue too in 1974, when Bob Catley and Bruce Macfarlane’s book _From Tweedledum to Tweedledee: the new Labor government in Australia, a critique of its social model_ was published. Yes, that’s right, in 1974 some people were saying that the *Whitlam* Labor government was not significantly different from the Coalition. And again, I expect the truth then was that there wasn’t as much difference as they would have liked. That’s fair enough: I just think that if that’s what you mean, that’s what you should say.
J-D
Speaking of industrial relations, there was this story
“Donut King boss Jim Martinoski unleashed a tirade of abuse to his then-employee Jennifer Claus while trying to force her to sign an Australian Workplace Agreement last year. He told her if she refused to sign it her hours would be cut to 15 per week. Mr Martinoski also said to her: “And as for you, Jennifer, asking for your f…ing payslips, we’re not going anywhere, so you don’t have to keep f…ing asking for them.” “If it was up to me, I would close the shop for a week, sack everyone and rehire everyone – people who do care about my business.”
Federal Magistrate Philip Burchardt said Mr Martinoski’s behaviour was an “inherently unattractive and significant form of misconduct”. “This was bullying conduct against an employee who plainly felt it to be offensive and oppressive, because she resigned almost immediately thereafter,” he said.
But Employers First’s Garry Brack said the Government was taking the magistrate’s ruling out of context and that a no-swearing rule was unrealistic. ”
I think Garry should run in Costello’s seat when he pulls the pin and run exactly on this issue. Stand up for what he believes in.
Rod
“I think Garry should run in Costello’s seat when he pulls the pin and run exactly on this issue. Stand up for what he believes in.”
as the esteemed john elliot would say “pigs arse”
I’ve got a copy of that book too, J-D! One of the classics.
I sometimes wish the ALP would put a lot more distance between itself and the Libs. Although I’ve gotta say I’ve been suprised by some of the decisions the Rudd Government has taken – I would have expected them to be much more cautious in a lot of areas.
But just look at Iraq, the Tampa election, workchoices (the only first world country to effectively outlaw unions), refusing to sign Kyoto or do anything about global warming…..I’ll stop here because I could go on until the site crashes. I mean, how much of a difference do people want?
James Langley the Labor candidate in the November election has announced that he will run as an independent. His main policy on local TV tonight was to attack electricity privatisation. Those with too much time on theirs hands and who wish to find out about his politics, will be rewarded by googling his name.
J-D
#68
I make clear pro Labor Party comments in #55 (last paragraf) , including quote :
‘ W/C is an extreme right wing policy’ , and that there is a clear difference between ‘left’ vs ‘right’ politcans in ‘oz’ I then also indicate clear suport for Kevin Rudd in both #55 and in #60 So my pro Labor and anti W/C views ar clear to all but you & GB
You 2 hav gutted English language in your posts in your apparent desires to use that despicable W/C Policy as red herrings to camoflage , either your own non Labor allegiences and instead disengenuously your suport of Greens Party , and/or your blind suport for that US oiliness phoney politican who carrys a ‘left’ tag but has in fact clear ‘right’ policys , or likely both Unlike yous I noted the great Labor PM Rudd who will fortunately dismantle despicable W/C when in th US , made no effort to personaly see that alleged ‘left’ oilines phoney politican face to face , but did so for Clinton , so Kevin07 can pick a phony as well Being a former very experienced diplomat , Kevin07 would not innocently make such a mistake
W/C will be Howard’s one of twin historical adverse legacys , th other losing hiws own seat Kevin07 can take credit for both
Ron, I’m sorry, I misunderstood what you were saying. I didn’t grasp the contrast you were making between Australia and the US.
If you are saying that the difference between Democrats and Republicans is not as big as the difference between Labor and the Coalition, you are of course emphatically correct. Please accept my apology.
J-D
Accepted completely J-D
.
th other guy was very subtlely running that line to suport a particular candidate who is th antithisus of Kevin Rudd and , I assumed you were th back up
.
J-D , think we ar a ‘lucky country’ in many ways including we hav a very sharp choice between ‘right’ and ‘left’ politicans/Partys in ‘oz’ , which no amount of sweet talk by a candidate to camoflage (which occurs in USA) or ’spin’ by th MSN can hide
Correction ” a line” , not “that line” ,
suggestion being any Democrat is = to Labor in policy , to suport a particular Democrat candidate (who has a actualy raft of ‘right’ policys including opposition to universal healthcare , does not support rafication of Kyoto , is pro guns , is pro offshore drilling in pristine waters , has appointed th most consevative of economists to run a future Treasury etc etc etc) , none of which Rudd or Labor would suport
If you’re talking about comparisons between countries, it’s only fair to say that it’s Australia which is closer to other democratic countries (in this particular respect) and the US which is more atypical. But even in the US there _is_ a difference between Democrats and Republicans, even if it’s not as big as the difference there typically is between parties in other democracies.
“and the US which is more atypical”
Agree completely
We ar it seems , like many European Countries having true complete ‘left’ parties Whilst th USA does hav two separate Partys , I think it was Michelle Grattan who said they ar both of th ‘right’ , with Republicans far more so than th Democrats , and with th Democrats having a ‘left’ wing I feel John Edwards is an example of that Democrats ‘left’ wing , as he strongly supports universal healthcare , ratifying Kyoto and is firm on consevation
Would hav been very happy J-D , with a candidate from Democrats ‘left’ wing like John Edwards , especialy regarding CC via his support for ratificaton of Kyoto Sadly this is not th case in this election Actualy Al gore was another who I’d liked given his CC credentials , although he’s not quite as dogmatic on universal but open
which is why I was posting that a ‘left’ tag for a Democrat in USA is meaningless , and I was suggesting one has to look at politcans individual policy stanses Some Democrats pretend to be ‘left’ when they ar hav ‘right’ policys , some pretend to be ‘right’ when they hav ‘left’ policys , ands some ar all over th place
This is where you originally asumed at first when I suggested looking at a politcans policys to decide if he was ‘left’ , you thought I was talking ‘oz’ Alot easier to pick in ‘oz’
Lets not forget the third party in this election who also enjoyed a swing toward her in the 2007 election and represents the third strongest party in Federal politics above the Nationals. This is Susie Russell of the Greens. Her team has helped to promote her profile in the region including the recent visit of the only Federal party leader senator Bob Brown of the Greens. Will all of the ALP voters back Oakeshott after the “Glasshouse” shenannigans? Probably not. What is the only other alternative? The Greens. Don’t get Rob’d! Go Susie!
http://three-rivers.nsw.greens.org.au/index.html
Susie Russell has been the only candidate so far to put policies out, host the leader of her party and attend community rallies. The rally against the proposed Marina extension is a great example of local action. What are Oakeshott’s and Drew’s view on a development that threatens the sanctuary of a unique species of dolphins in the Hastings River? Nothing. Stoney Silence.
Oakeshott is appearing just as conservative as his old collegues the Nationals, and was happy to be filmed on the 7.30 report last night with another ex Nationals collegue.
And what was Oakeshott’s role in the sacking of the Hastings Council? He’s happy to remove our democratic right to vote for our council, yet seeks his democratic right to be elected! What a hypocrite!
So, if the Nationals really, really get whacked and the Greens do as well as you think, the 2CP result could end up being Oakeshott vs Greens, considering the Libs and Labor aren’t running – no major party in the last two. Has that ever happened in a federal seat before? It’s happened a couple of times in Queensland (independent vs One Nation).
The real labor party is running a candidate in Lyne. It’s called the DLP. Why is the DLP running a candidate in Lyne? Well… analysis of the Lyne by-election seems to be of the National/”independent” personalities, their personal track record on specific local issues and their careers (saving or advancing them). What is missed in all of this that country people and farmers currently have no major party representing their interest. My grandfather was a dairyman. He lost his fingers chopping wood and had to upgrade to milking machines. But you don’t have to be a farmer to observe that rural people have been abandoned and despised. The Nationals (even the deputy PM and trade minister) have let Lyne and down at the federal level, the ALP doesn’t care enough to run, and the Greens do not have the interests of farmers in mind. Surely it would be better for Lyne if rather than paying farmers to leave their farms, they encouraged the transfer of needed resources, people and industry out of the noisy big smoke into rural areas (which would be better for the environment as well). The DLP, having reformed as a state party as well, intends to contest both the next state and federal elections in both houses, and will give fair representation of the interests of workers and families in rural areas as well as urban areas. Dale Higgins, Vice President DLP NSW.
William, can you open a Mayo specific page?
“The real labor party is running a candidate in Lyne”
Dale, what is the difference between the DLP and the ALP, all I know of the DLP is what my dad told me ie “They existed to keep labor (the ALP) out of office”.
Thanks.
83 Dale Higgins: That DLP website (linked in the other thread) is absolutely dreadfully designed. Apart from the HTML abuse (god, I hate frames), if I just happened on that site out of the blue, how would I find out the party is running in Lyne? If you expect to use a website to get the attention of people who have never heard of your party (or thought it vanished in the 70’s), it needs to be a lot better.
Also, here’s a list of all the candidates, from the AEC:
1 The Fishing Party Bob Smith
2 Citizens Electoral Council Graeme Muldoon
3 Independent Stewart Scott-Irving
4 D.L.P. – Democratic Labor Party Michael Patrick O’Donohue
5 Independent Robert Oakeshott
6 The Greens Susie Russell
7 Nationals Rob Drew
8 Independent Barry Wright
http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/supplementary_by_elections/2008_lyne/candidates.htm
I guess By-elections have a role in democracy. As we can see from the above, they give free oxygen to the fringes.
Suzie Russell to outpoll Drew …really!. The reformation (pun intended) of the DLP, presumably as an advocate of Port Macquarie’s biggest land owner and developer. Of course these groups have only got their deposits to lose. They get 3 weeks of publicity and then when they fail to make a significant impact nothing more is heard and they do not have to make excuses.
“Suzie Russell to outpoll Drew ”
I’ve seen the Greens vote growing but it’s a brave call midnorthcoast, are you privy to secret polling?
No. I was ironically commenting on #81, #82 who suggested this. Of course its not going to happen. Greens always build themselves up before a poll and when it dosen’t happen they just high step away from it. I guess that’s the advantage of being on the fringe
Hi midnorthcoast,
I reread #81, #82, and nowhere did they say “Suzie Russell would outpoll Drew”,
so I thing it’s your kind self who is building them up.
Another typical example of Green bashing by our jelous opponents.
Thank you.
At 80 the greens the third strongest force in Australian politics above the Nationals oh really. The greens haven’t got a single seat in the House of Representatives where governments are made whereas the Nationals have 10.
Also the Greens have never had the balance of power in the Senate whereas the Nationals did between 2005-2008. The Greens will end up like the DLP and the Democrats and disappear forever whereas the Country/National Party will remain a permanent fixture on Australias political landscape.
The Nationals were on the Government benches. Hardly a balance of power.
Oh really, Paul Nash, results from 2007 Fed election.
Party Votes Percentage% Swing %
Liberal 4,506,236 36.28 -4.19
A L P 5,388,147 43.38 +5.74
The Greens 967,781 7.79 +0.60
The Nationals 682,424 5.49 -0.40
Count third from the top, so #80 is correct
Over one million Australians voted for The Greens in the Senate,
to ignore that you are just fooling yourselves, and ignoring the FACTS.
Another interesting aspect of the Lyne by-election is its comparsion with the recent Gippsland by-election. In Gippsland the Victorian National Party leader Peter Ryans state seat of Gippsland South fell within the federal boundaries of Gippsland likewise New South Wales National Party Leader Andrew Stoners seat of Oxley falls within Lyne. Both Leaders have performed strongly for their respective parties and have a strong personal following. This aspect will see a strong National Party victory in Lyne like the recent win in Gippsland.
I’m neither for or against the Greens (sure, I’ll be voting for them on the day, but on the other side of the country) – I’m more interested in this election than the one I’m actually voting in, though. My internet-ninjas did some research for me, and found the seat of Nicklin in Qld was the only known case of no major party finishing in the final two (Peter Wellington vs One Nation, 2001 state election). It’s never happened at the federal level since there’s been political parties, but if Oakeshott is as popular as everybody says and the National candidate is a real dud, it ain’t out of the question. Remember the Cunningham by-election in 2002… I doubt many people were tipping the Greens to win that, but they did – weird things can happen when major parties don’t run. It’s more likely to be Nationals second, though… I can’t see too many preferences from the CEC / DLP / Fishing Party going to the Greens, and I don’t know about the other two independents (both ran last year, got a combined 1.6%).
No, let me reassure you, it’s out of the question but I tip Suzie Russell will win Elands booth.
The overlap between stoner’s seat and Lyne is not great. Certainly Stoner’s seat of Oxley is a typical national party seat but thanks to sea changers and coastal development, the Nationals now have little relevance in Lyne
The difference between Gippsland and Lyne is Oakeshott. If he didn’t run it would be like Gippsland.
Yes you are right Phil, Nationals would win without Oakshot. He is a former National who gets the National vote. Without him that vote would revrt to the Nationals. The DLP preferences will be of interest. Will they go to Oakshot?
I suspect DLP preferences like the DLP vote will be random
I’m sorry, but when did the Greens become enemies of the farmers? Missed that. Is it when the Greens started polling better then the Nats(the supposed farmers party)? Or when the Greens creating policies on farming. Policies created by farmers, not the NFF by the way.
What do the DLP pretend to stand for anyway?
The ALP pretend to stand for the unions, as well as hospitals, education et al. Yeah going great guys. A friend had to buy private insurance as he was going to die within weeks if he didn’t have an operation, the best he could hope for was within six months! Um, something wrong there.
The Libs. Say they are for small business. Haven’t noticed any small business going worse off now that the Libs are gone.
Thats right. They are pro business, pro money, anti-union. Until the wind changes.
The Nats. Heroes of the farmers. Um try again. Heroes of the NFF. Remember wheat desk? Most farmers who used to vote nat vote Lib cos it saves time, or Green, to get water.
Greens. Coming to be known as the party for the environment. Well done people, you’ve noticed they have been right about climate change all along.
But essentially they are the ENEMY.
But I cant even tell what the DLP want people to think they stand for. Except maybe they say whatever the person they are talking to wants to believe.
Ah, now I see why everyone hates the Greens. The Greens tell it like it is. It scares you, because all the other parties survive by lying through your teeth.
Way to go Bert,
Don’t worry about the Green Haters here, they are rusted on party hacks, with snout in the trough.
The Greens bring a breath of fresh air and solutions to challenges we face.
The Greens are shaking the foundations of the 2PP Club and have shown its just a “house of cards”
The voters love The Greens (despite the lies and hate spread be MSM) and that’s what counts.
The Judge.
You say : the voters love the greens”.
I think the msm give them quite a good go.
What idiot would for vote for a party that promotes “Global Governance” as one of its priniciples and population control as one of its aims.
Whether or not you believe in man-made global warming is up to you, but to even consider introducing the measures that the greens promote would change this country for ever.
It’s good to see the DLP step up to take the ALP vote in both these bi-elections.
So lets everyone in the labor movement get behind these blokes and give them the support they need, or we may end up having “Global Governance” Population Control” and an enconomy laiden with a tax that could destroy any hope of our childrens future.
Ziggy
Yeah I know judge.
I’m always wondering why people support parties/candidates because thier family does, or stuff like that. Does anyone actually look at the policies, or lack of, and wonder if the party deserves to be worshipped?
I doubt it, and thats why the 2 party system(if anyone thinks the Nat/CLP/NLP are a seperate entity, they’ve been taking drugs for waaay to long) will fall apart sooner or later.
The 2 party system won’t fall apart. I see no evidence to support that in any case and the parties certainly will do their best to stop that happening.
Bert, I think people might take some guide from their families especially if they aren’t up to date on all the issues.
Forget about trying to learn about LIB/LAB they cant be pinned down.
Where does LAB stand on uranium, privatisation, public education,
public transport, war in Iraq, alternative energy, etc, the list goes on.
The 2PP Club deliberately try to confuse the electorate, and allow themselves to be pushed around by the lobby group offering the biggest bribes.
Follow the money here:-
http://www.democracy4sale.org/
Fortunately the message is getting through, although slowly.
If you look at the demographic of voters The Greens have great support in the younger age group.
Tasmania where The Greens have been established longest the voters have stayed with The Green into the middle age groups.
The Liberals are actually a dieing Party—biggest support in over 55
If any one wants to learn about The Greens and their policies its easy
http://greens.org.au/
I wasn’t talking about taking a guide from their family. I’m talking about those people who’s only reason for voting the way they do is because thats who their parents/so vote for.
THE JUDGE:
I have them all here….. Unbelievable how anyone can vote for them.
What about this one:
1. Global governance is essential to meet the needs of global peace and security, justice, human rights, poverty alleviation and enviromental sustainability.
……3. The system of global governance must be reinvigorated…. Wow.
(They used to call that treason when I was a kid)
what about population:
1. Australia must contribute to achieving a globally sustainable population ?
I know now why they refer to them as the “extreme Green” party machine.
They sound like something out of a hitler youth training manual.
(only aimed at young women)
Ziggy
ZIGGY
It’s one thing to quote, quite another to get it so wrong as to sound moronic. (And before anyone tells me off for name calling, notice Ziggy just called my friends hitler youth)
Global Governance is talking about the UN system. Is there anyone that actually thinks that works? Also the EU is Global Governance. Well, Regional Governence. They seem to be going quite well.
Population Control. This does not mean one child policy or anything like that. All it means is dont have kids for the sake of it. If you cant afford/are too young(I’m talking 14-18 as too young)/dont have the time for kids/more kids, then dont have them.
Seems sensible. If you cant afford to feed yourself, why are you having a kid?
Bert:
They are straight of the greens website.
They are the greens policys.
and yes the policys do read like something out of a hitler youth manual.
Happy.
Besides I have never elected anyone at the UN. Have you?
So why should we be accepting policy touted by an unelected body anyway.
Of course I haven’t elected anyone to the UN. People are elected to the EU. The global governance system, eg: World Bank, IMF, UN and so on need reinvigoration.
Bert:
Okay so you do support population control and unelected Global Governance.
What about this one then.
10. The education system to provide age-appropriate information about the diversity of sexuality.
Or this one.
Legislate to remove LGBTI (lesbian, Gay, bisexual,transgender or Intersex (whatever that is) people in federal legistlation.
(That why they have a minister for Intersex)
20 Fund services to promote and protect LGBTI youth (Notice to promote)
Does anyone every read policies.
Surely no one can vote for this mob.
What about you Bert ?
ziggy
Bert:
You say: “Population Control. This does not mean one child policy or anything like that. All it means is dont have kids for the sake of it”
Doesn’t really sound like a “control” then does it? I mean, as you put it, that would be in status quo rather than a policy proposal. Perhaps you mean that the “policy” is a misnomer?
If so, it surely reads badly sounding more like something the Nazi’s did quite effectively.
Having said that, some of the “principles” detailed at http://greens.org.au/node/792 sound rather more reminiscent of the old USSR!
Could folk please stop breaking Godwin’s Law?
ziggy,
Global Governance is not global government
and The Greens dont have a policy on “population control” as Burt pointed out.
The link soylent gives to The Greens policy on Population is straight forward.
The old USSR encouraged big famalies, even giving women medals for having over 10 kids.
The Greens policy is nothing like the old USSR.
[b]Bird of paradox:[/b] Godwin’s Law indeed!
I’d have thought I was pretty well on point, irrespective of any rules of the blogosphere. But a not bad as an attempted shot (but better not mention the war)
[b]judge:[/b] Did I mention radical feminism as well as the old USSR?
“inequitable distribution of wealth and power”
also ….
[i]“global and domestic social justice and equity;”
“global social justice”
“globally, to improve social and economic equity”
“increasing our contribution to programs that empower women and increase their access to a wide range of safe family planning options”
“increasing our overseas aid budget… directed to the poorest, which often include women, with a focus on … sexual and reproductive health services.[/i]
Well that would be killing the kill them if you don’t want them policy I guess.
Well there’s that unwanted baby theme again.
Soylent, you want < and > rather than [ and ] for your tags.
Thanks William. I’m a novice at this, and note there seems to be variations from site to site on HTML syntax, with some of it being stripped clean away (ignored).
JUDGE
Judge says:
“Global Governance is not global government”
Hmmmm thats a good one.
Judge says:
“and The Greens dont have a policy on “population control”
Doesnt your policy state this:
1. Australia must contribute to achieving a globally sustainable population ?
As they say, sounds like , looks like
1984
Can we please wind down this discussion on the Nazism or otherwise of the Greens, or perhaps direct it to the latest federal polling thread? It’s been quite a while since anyone’s actually mentioned the Lyne by-election.
Soylent:
It certainly is a family unfriendly party eh ?
Hope my kids never get involved with a party like this. Just goes to show, most people actually think the greens are harmless or in someway an alternative.
To much about social engineering and not enough about the environment.
I think Ziggy might be right it is not unlike the hitler youth documents.
We live and learn
What do you think Soylent.
1984
1984: I don’t know about family unfriendly. Doesn’t this man sound like he’s from a good working family:
Green candidate “Lynton Vonow’s Christian upbringing has given him a strong social and environmental conscience. He is an ethical and responsible man of integrity and common sense”
The cognitive dissonance incumbent with such a position should keep him on his toes if nothing else!
He also professes to want to “make the world safe for our children ….and create ‘green collar’ jobs …. in solar, wind and tidal power”.
Nothing I could see from him about the War or Adolf.
And his party is in favour of “adoption, fostering, artificial insemination” for men & women, and (I think) intersex as well. That would be promoting families wouldn’t it 1984?
Go the windmills. Oi! Oi! Oi!
Back on topic now please.
“Lyne by-election preview”
I’d have thought some discussion regarding the policies of Mayo candidates was at least as important as the geography of the electorate detailed in your opening article.
If you want to give Green candidates (or indeed preferred others) a break, that would doubtless be your prerogative.
With respect, should I stand corrected with pursed lips?
Sorry, I failed to notice that you were discussing the Greens candidate.
Soylent:
The Candidates in this one to watch are
1. Robert Oakeshott(Ind) 2. Rob Drew and the dark horse Michael O’Donohue for the DLP.
Its a National Seat, Robert Oakeshott is an independant in the state and will now look to be favourite. The DLP Michael O’Donohue is an outsider and will gain a fair share of he ALP vote, (There’s no FF) so should pick up their vote and no CDP (so Should pick up their Vote). The DLP policies certainly will attract voters in this electorate.
The ALP are Centralists – The DLP De Centralist.
The ALP are Globalists – The DLP prefers a more mixed economy.
The ALP have deserted the bush – The DLP Vote is increasing in the Bush
(and even scored up to 2.8 in areas without any advertising at all in the 2007 senate result). Then last of all Susie Russell who would be hard to draw any preferences from this lot.
I would predict that most of the major players will preference the DLP including the fishing party (Which DLP policies cover anyway) and the independents.
If Robert Oakeshott gains 50 % then his in.
Rob Drew would be the beneficairy of preferences. (Also a good Chance)
Susie Russell will gain no preferences .
Michael O’Donohue will gain the bulk of preferences and provided he can get over Sussie Russell (this would depend on where the ALP votes goes) then he is also a chance.
Hows that sound Soylent.
Ziggy
Ziggy
Sounds good to me. You may be over optomistic in regard to the DLP vote, but it is possible for them to go well if they do well in preference deals with other candidates.
Most of the other parties are now realising how dangerous and divisive the Greens are, and are putting them last.
Remember Peter Kavanagh DLP won a Upper House seat in Victoria with less than 3% of the vote after receiving a good preference flow. But you have to remember he gained the last of 5 seats, and it is different when there is only one seat on offer.
Still if the DLP get a good preference flow and finish in the top 3, it would be an outstanding result for them.
Maybe voters will start looking at DLP policies and vote accordinly, and forget the old unfounded biases and hatred that prevented them voting for them in the past.
Michael O’Donohue is unknown in the electorate. His party is unknown in the electorate. He has no publicity in the electorate. He is uncontactable and has not responded to an invitation to the one candidate forum that is being held. Any ALP voters who are old enough to remember the DLP WILL NOT vote for Michael O’Donoghue (what a bizarre suggestion).
The thought of the DLP suddenly re-appearing after 35 years in a Lyne By-election has the political cognizetti scratching their head in amazement. The ALP vote will go overwhelmingly to Oakeshott, a smaller proportion to Suzie Russell.
If Michael O’Donohue gets more than 5% of the primary I will walk down Horton St naked.
midnorthcoast:
Well you better start getting fit, and dont forget to post it on the web.
The 2007 Senate for lyne had
DLP 1.56% (with no advertising whatsoever)
CDP 2.66% Should pick these up
Family First: .72% (should pick up these)
Total 4.94% before he starts.
The DLP has a very strong stance against the Carbon Emission Trading Scheme as well. That should pull votes from across the board. Both from the ALP and Coalition.
I still say that the order is as i prevously stated.
1. Oakeshott (ind Nat)
2. Rob Drew (Nat)
As there is no ALP and looking at the demographics I can’t see Sussie Russell getting too many preferences…. Can You ?
3. Considering that DLP won one and almost 2 Seats( 2006 in Victoria) with ALP preferences I cant understand why you would think that the DLP would not draw ALP votes. The DLP membership particularly the younger ones still predominately come out of the ALP. They are both Labor parties with the differences I listed above. The DLP polls well in regional centres as well so the setting is ideal.
Admitingly he wont have the funding of the cashed up greens, but the demographics of this electorate certainly favour him.
As I said:
That leaves the Dark horse Michael O’Donoghue.
Perhaps you need to look again
Ziggy
The differnce in Victoria was a huge advertising campaign, plus a large group of the ALP pointing out that it is a different DLP.
Also the simple fact is the DLP went AWOL in NSW but stayed around in Vic.
Michael O’Donoghue does not live within 100 kms of the electorate. If he gets any publicity at all, this will be the one fact that will stand out. If the DLP have 5% support in Lyne surely they could have picked a local as candidate.
BERT & MIDNTHCOAST
Bert…. The DLP is in a rebuilding stage and where and when they stand is up to each state branch and the federal executive.
It has stood candidates in every Federal election since the split. (maybe not nsw or SA where they are contesting these bi elections).
Yes the party is a different party today then the one you may remember, but that shouldn’t stop the new members from having a go when and if they wish.
Isn’t that a political partys role, to stand for parliament ? They last held a state seat in NSW I believe in 1978 and did achieve a good result in their first go at the senate in 30 years last year.
midnorthcoast:
What has he got you worried? He’s a contract teacher and has moved around and has a rural background. The party still attracts younger members from the ALP and I dont see any reason why they wont support the DLP do you ? Or are you still along the lines of 30 years ago ?
Dont forget to post the picture.
Ziggy
Ziggy, I would certainly like to know more about him because I have heard nothing here except for a low whistle from elderly ALP members when they hear that the DLP has suddenly reappeared after abandoning NSW in 1974. For all I know he may be another Frank Reid, an 80+ pensioner living in Sydney who was the AAFI candidate at the last state election. When he was eventually tracked down he denied any knowledge of his candidature and claimed his signature had been forged on the nomination. Obviously the “New DLP” haven’t been able to attract younger members of the ALP in the electorate or one of them would have stood.
Honestly, I am very interested in what these people who call themselves the DLP stand for. The old DLP could be interpreted in a number of ways: 1. a product of the cold war 2. A staging post for middle class catholics on their migration to conservative politics 3. A conservative front whose sole aim was the denial of government to Labor. Certainly the old DLP never had a chance at government and its policies played little part in its electoral appeal. None of these interpretations are now vaild – so why do these people call themselves the DLP? What ever their policies wouldn’t another name now be appropriate?
You obviously have intimate knowledge of Michael O’Donoghue (are you he?), so you may be able to tell us if he is a a willing candidate and will be gracing the electorate with a visit during the campaign. This forum seems to be the DLPs main publicity for the by-election. I don’t think you will gain many votes here.
I am a realist and see a 4/5% vote for the DLP as being good for a party in the process of rebuilding, and with some support from preferences being right up there in the last 3/4 but with no hope of winning.
This by-election for the DLP is not about winning .
It is about getting an increase in their primry vote, to about 4/5%’;
an increased awareness in the party profile by the public of NSW.,
which will lead to an increase in the party profile in the leadup to the next Senate Elecion.
It is all about putting the DLP in a position to enable them to have a real chance at the next Senate election.
To a position of real influence in the State, where they will be taken seriously, and their preferences can play a part in deciding the composition of the Senate.
This will have a major difference to the party, the part they play in australian politics, and the influence and respect given by all other parties, the media, and the Australian public.
Dear DLP sock puppet, you’re lucky the site crashed last night, because I was in the middle of typing something rather intemperate.
The DLP might get 1% of the vote. Their scary religious policies are already covered by the CDP, who are much more established in NSW, and anyone clueless enough to mix them up with the ALP would probably forget to vote altogether. When it comes to electing the NSW senate in 2011, nobody is going to care about a federal by-election three years previously where your party got 1% of the vote from 2% of the population. Remember, most of NSW is not in Lyne.
There is a good articule in the Sunday Age about how Peter Kavanagh DLP is performing in the Victorian Upper House, and the effect for the good he is having on the Parilment.
I recommend it to all who are interested in the future of the DLP.
Support for the DLP is growing and membershi is increasing
“At a time when the major parties are struggling to get people to attend branch meetings, some DLP branches in the seat of Hotham and in Ballarat and Geelong are attracting new members. And they are young.
Mark Farrell, secretary of the Hotham branch, is an example of the new face of the DLP. He feels “pumped” about the DLP, he says. The 32-year-old’s parents were involved in the party, but he became active because of the DLP’s views on protecting Australian business from cheap imports and boosting small businesses. In a year, the branch has collected 28 members, with an average age of 26. The gender split for this branch is similar to the DLP generally – about two-thirds are men.
The interesting thing about the new branch members is that many of them are young conservatives who have become politically active. They are, says Farrell, young working-class people, often tradesmen, and a big factor in their loss of faith in mainstream parties is economic, such as being locked out of the housing market.They see something in the DLP’s nationalist, protectionist economic policies, their support of tariffs and their belief that young (heterosexual) families need more help to buy a house. Perhaps the DLP, long thought to be a near-corpse of a party, has some life in it yet.”
midnorthcoast:
If your so interested why don’t you contact him.
Its not like he’s not uncontactable. For someone I listed as a Dark Horse you certainly seem interested. Why are you one of the other candidates ?
I dont Michael personally but had no trouble in contacting him, and wishing him luck. I’m a supporter of the DLP but not in Lyne. Politics is an interest and its good to see this young man have a go. Dont your agree. The Old DLP and the current DLP may be the same party but I’m not expecting Gough Whitlam to jump up and stand for the ALP, so why are you comparing them to our party members of the 1970’s. I think you should update your knowledge a bit as others are doing on the modern DLP of today.
Goana: Yes I agree but hopeing Michael can poll more than 5% so Midnorthcoast: quote
“If Michael O’Donohue gets more than 5% of the primary I will walk down Horton St naked.”
Ziggy
RE DLP article in the Sunday Age, it is called ,
“New order in the house, (by)
Melissa Fyfe
August 24, 2008
Page 1 of 6 |”
Enjoy the read
Ziggy Would love to see Midnortcoast “walk down Horton Street Naked”"
The mind boggles
Meanwhile, young homosexual families (yes, they do exist) should take a long walk? What a charming policy.
This is all very interesting.
In the mean time, in the real world, there is little local interest in the election. Drew’s advertising concentrates on his time as Mayor which I feel is a poor decision as he was in fact relieved of office for financial ineptitude and it reminds many voters of the Glasshouse fiasco. Charges that Oakeshott is a Labor puppet have also proved ineffective – Oakeshott rejoins that he is a conservative who flirted with the Liberals. The quiteness of the campaign is difficult to interprut but is possibly a sign that the Nationals have not yet laid a glove on Oakeshott
Bird of paradox:
We’ll its good to see one green voter out there.
Ziggy
Ziggy:
From the Green’s home page as it currently stands:
“The Greens will be reintroducing a Democrats bill to ban junk food advertising to the Senate,” Senator Brown said.
I did not know the advertisers were targeting senators – you’d think they’d be happy enough with the food provided.
But seriously, do you think the paradoxical bird is a Green voter because of the Greens policy for “access, regardless of sexuality and gender identity, to adoption, fostering, artificial insemination and in vitro fertilisation procedures”?
What’s the DLP got to say about IVF access for a minority group, and do they believe there is a place for intersex as a gender?
Ziggy
Peter Kavanagh DLP Upper House Vic. is showing by his actions that he is really a very reasonable man, and has even been able to work well with Greens on some issues they agree on
Quote from Melissa Fyfe “New order in the house, Age Aug,24″”
“But despite the Greens not supporting Kavanagh on his social beliefs, they get along very well. Indeed, many MPs willingly admit that, far from being obstructive or irrelevant, Kavanagh has made the upper house a better place, particularly in the areas of scrutiny of government, transparency and checks on the state’s gaming industry.”
Goanna at 133.
“This will have a major difference to the party, the part they play in australian politics, and the influence and respect given by all other parties, the media, and the Australian public.”
Increased awareness does not mean respect or anything else.
The more Greens there are, the less respect they get.
One Nation won seats in Qld. They didn’t get respect or anything.
Hardly supports your claim.
And at 135.
The Greens are growing all the time, but because its nothing new, it doesn’t get reported. 28 members in a year? Thats nothing. My local branch got 40. And thats below average for the state.
Bert
The point is that this increase in numbers comes to a Party thas was thought to be in the terminal stage.
The new members breate new life and fresh ideas to the party, and the fact that they are average age of 26, and “young working-class people, often tradesmen,” must be of some concern for the ALP”.
I think we can safely say a new dawn has come to the DLP, where the party goes with this new dawn is going to be a question that all who have an active interest in politics in this country will await the answer to in coming years
GOANA:
Well said… and good news. I dont get to here a lot up here.
I know we’re still opening new branches up here in Queensland as well, but 26 is a good age to have them so keen on politics.
The NSW group seem quite young as well. When speaking to them they all seem very polite well mannered and very dedicated. A Credit to the party.
We are recruiting them in their 30’s and 40s but some of the outer regional areas are starting to show interest in the younger age groups.
It may come as a bit of a culture shock to some of our older members next federal election. But I think they are enjoying telling tales. I had an older member bring in old campaign posters and etc dateing back to the 60s. Some even even back to the old QLP days.
Keep up the good work.
I’ll try to put in the link for you
http://www.watoday.com.au/national/new-order-in-the-house-20080823-40y3.html?page=6Hotham
Ziggy
Looks like Ziggy and Goanna have created a whole DLP movement in their minds.
I’m thinking that the DLP might not rate IVF access for a homosexuals, intersex as a gender top priority.
Or did you miss the question raised Ziggy?
Greeensborough Growler:
“a whole DLP movement in their minds”
One swallow doth not a Spring make (or two)
GREENSBOROUGH:
I’m and ALP Voter and I’ll be voteing for them
They are the ALP with all the negatives removed.
Might start to wake up some of our branchs where members get no say and personalities and Union members take priority over us.
Besides someone has to put a stop to this globalisation rush.
Do we own anything anymore? Or are we still selling everything the brings in income.
Yep I’ll be talking to him and some of my mates as well.
GZG: I think the greens might be the right people to ask on that one.
I think they’re the only ones that know what a intersex person is. (not in my oxford)
But there’s not doubt whoever they are they’ll vote green anyway.
1984
1984,
Seeing there isn’t a Labor candidate, you have to vote for someone and so do your mates.
The biggest negative you will remove is the responsibility of implementing their policies. Only real Political Parties get to do that.
GREENSBROUGH
The only other players are a National, Ind National and the green.
At least this way we keep it in the family and may even get lucky on the preferences as ziggy has said.
It might be good to inject some new ideas into the lower house.
The DLP policies might gain support amoungst the other members in the house.
It’s worth a go.
1984
GG
The fact that there is a grassroats movement of youngish 20s to 40s people to membership of the DLP in 4 States proves that it is not just “a whole DLP movement in their minds”.
These are a group of people with keeness and enthusiasm, with no memories of the bitterness of ‘The Split’,.
They are drawn to the DLP by it progressive policies that value life from conception to natural life.
These policies are designed to help the average and not so average family in rearing teir children and coping with the problems that such family endure.
They are not policies to cater for the ‘mythical’families’ and ‘intersex’ persons???, that the Greens so called policies are designed for .
1984
You will be rewarded with your vote by helping to put traditional Labour family values back on the agenda, for the ALP, and for the community
I’m beginning to think the DLP posters are all the same person. What’s this fascination with intersex, anyway?
Bird
no fascination from me.
Intersex is just an idiot term dreamed up by a idiot party. (Greens)
The DLP concentrates on real people, real families, and the needs of them and their children.
With a new team of young and enthuastic supporters to bolster th older party members, the DLP is alive and well, and growing daily.
As young australian families look to a party that understands their needs, and aspirations, and not the party of the radical left, that is anti life.
The term intersex was around a very long time before the Greens.
It covers those that feel that they are male but have femasle parts, and vice versa. The ones that go in for a sex change.
Bert
Ok i accept what you say on face value.
But that policy is hardly a priority for any political party.
How many Australians are “those that feel that they are male but have female parts, and vice versa. The ones that go in for a sex change.”
I guess it says a lot about the focus of the Greens.
It is not about the needs of mainstream Australians.
Not even about needs of minority groups in this country.
What are their policies about?
Answer,
anti life, anti family, anti anything that is good and wholesome in our society
I’m me, died in the wool Soylent Green by the way B of P. No multiple personality on my side (unless I AM psychotic!).
The ones that go in for a sex change (or some serious counseling) …… how many are we talking here?
I mean are we in the 0.0067% range like phenylketonuria or more like the 0.5% prevalence of Coeliac disease? I daresay it will be very low, but in any case, would this affliction be an issue of concern for the voters of Lyne in the upcoming election?
Would the voters really want to create a new “gender” and if so, by extrapolation, what about a further one for those who’ve had total hysterectomy, or orchiectomy?
A bit like the “religion” field on a database form. Does one say Christian, evangelical, AOG, or name the specific “one off” non-affiliated church you connect with.
One last minute thought: What would be the cost to amend all the paperwork and all the computer software & databases to cater for this proposed change? Better and cheaper to pay for some good counseling I’d have thought.
Soylent
Ha Ha well said,
i am rolling in the aisles
It would be really funny if it was’nt so serious to have the sort of people who advocate some of thése ‘nonsense’ political ágendas wanting to influence the political life of this country, via the Lyne by-election
Bird of paradox
Your sure you’re not bert ?
1984
Bird
Or do u want to promote sexchange operations so you can become Bert??
Good luck with the operation, but dont expect me to support it financiallly!!!!!!
goanna,
Its your prerogative to focus on any issue you like, but to accuse the Greens of focusing on that one issue when you are, looks a tad hypocritical.
The Greens are used to false accusations of being a one issue party yet have 100″s of policies.
The Green don’t hide their platform or history unlike others.
That’s why over one million Australians vote [1] The Greens.
Judge
As you well know the DLP also has 100’s of policies which are all listed on their website for everybody to see.
The DLP has been formulating policie for 50+ years that are in the best interests of all Australians, now and into the future.
To many people criticize the DLP without looking at their policies.
Judge: There’s been a bit of chatter about the non-populist issue of “intersex”, one of the Greens “100’s of policies”.
Indeed they do have a plethora of policies, and I’ve not heard anyone here saying that they just focus on intersex.
Still, a policy is a policy, and as such, is fair game for comment. Widespread and unfavourable comments sometimes bring changes in policies.
Let’s not forget that they’ve got plenty of other extreme policies to breakdown a society, wipe out farmers or just tickle the enviro-nuts. Maybe we could further discuss some others that spring to mind.
1. Abortion
2. Euthanasia
3. A national labelling system that identifies products as “cruelty-free”
4. Phase out intensive farming practices in meat, dairy and egg production.
5. Equal representation of women and men in public life.
6. Marriage of homosexuals
7. Proposal to cut CO2 to 80% below 1990 levels 2050 whilst at the same time “distributing the cost fairly, both domestically and between nations”
You’re right! Our society would be under threat of extinction if we allowed equal representation of women and men! Or responded to climate change in any concrete and just way!
(Irony is very difficult to express in plain text – I think I’ve made my point, as have you, Soylent. As for the aims I mention above – well, we’ve got a bit of work to do on both, but they’re not impossible dreams. Unlike, say, the DLP winning Lyne.)
For the record:
Intersex people are people born with sexual characteristics of both sexes – so that would be a biological trait that, presumably, doesn’t warrant discrimination from the likes of the DLP (by the way, I don’t know if some of the posters on this site have heard, but to most of the country, the DLP is either a joke party or the people who kept the real Labor Party out of office – or never even existed, for vast swathes of we under-30s).
Transgender people are people who feel that they were born into a body of the wrong biological sex, i.e. they feel male but have female organs, or vice-versa. As with many issues of personal identity, there are shades of grey here, and I don’t want to generalise – but that’s usually how the term is defined.
The two terms are separate and discrete.
Now that that’s sorted out, may I clarify that the Green stance is based on the idea that families come in more than one variety, and that there are fundamental human rights and dignities at play in this area. I might point out that this sense of human equality underpins a lot of Green policy – it would be a little hard to base Nazism on this ideology, so I think that one’s safely away.
Moderate this last bit away if you think it’s appropriate, William, but I’d like to point out that the current DLP posters on this site are ignorant and bigoted (not to say that all DLP identities are), and that their comments don’t belong on this site. I am still unconvinced that they’re not the same person with three identities.
What’s the term for that?
Now back on topic – I don’t think Oakeshott’s margin will be as enthusiastic as, say, Iemma’s in 2007 – but he will win the seat barring a major upset. Nationals to come second, with Greens third, and the other candidates including the DLP providing interest but no threat as yet.
Margin in the higher 60s.
(says city slicker with little to no local knowledge – conventional wisdom is a brilliant thing)
Saying that – are there any Lyne or Mayo residents who could give us an idea of the campaign in either seat? Update update?
Ménage à trois ?
No, I’m the normal one
Judge & Bert & Greensborough
and Bird of paradox
Lyne is a rural and regional centre. The target of the greens, and one of the areas that will suffer the most should a Carbon Emissions Trading/Tax Scheme be introduced.
Whether or not you believe in man made global warming, a carbon trading scheme is not the answer.
1. It will not achieve its aim see Link 2
2. It will be another tax where the workers and small regional business pay
to compensate for the major emitters (Global TNC’s) Link 3
3. It will allow global giants including banks and TNC’s to cash in at our and our childrens expense.
4. It will harm our own regional businesses by making them uncompetitive while letting the major emitters of the hook.
The DLP is against regressive taxation and would better use the wasted funds in CTS developing clean and renewable technologies.
This policy alone will make our DLP candidate be attractive to political aware voters.
Link 1. Consensis or No Consensis
Link 2.
Link 3 The Tax
Ziggy
Judge & Bert & Greensborough
and Bird of paradox
Try again. If this fails help I might need some help william
Link 1. Consensis or No Consensis
Link 2.
Link 3
ts try again with those links.
Hope this works.
Ziggy
Josh WK: [ Saying that - are there any Lyne or Mayo residents who could give us an idea of the campaign in either seat? Update update? ]
Yep, midnorthcoast (further up the page) is from Lyne, as is Possum Comitatus (he might’ve posted here, certainly posted his own article on his site). Both reckon Oakeshott’s gonna tear the Nats a new one… midnorthcoast was saying the campaign’s fairly low key so far.
By the way, that term you’re looking for is ’sock puppet’.
Last time I looked at any polls, 80% of voters understood that Climate Change was real, that human activity played a significant role in this happening and that voters wanted the Government to do something about it, now. Furthermore, they were prepared to pay a price.
I reckon there might be a few working families in that 80%. I also think anyone that continues to deny global warming and climate change exist are outside the mainstream of Australian political life. So, be a ratbag. It don’t worry me none.
Bring on your alleged army of malcontents.
Josh WK
My initial prediction was.
1. The Independant – Oakshott (Favourite)
2. The National – Rod Drew (Must be a look in)
3. Sussie Russell (I think her vote could even fall from last election) I honestly believe that the greens peaked in the 2007 and now will bear the brunt of the governments Carbon Trading Scheme. (Imagine the damage to rural and regional centres when this CTS is implemented fully).
Sussie will also struggle to get and preferences in this lot as well.
4. The Dark Horse… There are a lot of rural voters. Plus a good spread of Liberal voters, as well as the ALP voters. Its where these votes go that could decide the outcome. There is bound to be a protest vote on the Nationals for causing the Bi Election so the DLP could pick up a fair share of these.
So the two favourites will lead down the straight. Its whether 3rd & fourth horses and gain enough disgruntled or 2nd preferences to get to the finish line
Or it could be a one horse race.
Ziggy
Greeensborough Growler:
Its irrelavent if you want believe in man made global warming or not.
Its this regressive tax, (All pain for no Gain) that they dont like.
The carbon Emission Trading Scheme is very unpopular across that electorate.
I know I speak to small businesses, including Transport etc that come out of Taree, Port Macquarie and surrounding areas.
In fact some have donated to us up here. (A lot of truckies work in SE following the work) That policy and many of the DLP policies are very popular with rural and small business. I dont know if they can get the message out in time though.
It might take a couple of goes, which might be too late for the district.
Once its in, Its In. Fully implemented they estimate from farmgate to the table on most foods (particularly, Beef, Lamp and Dairy) an increase over a few years of 46 %. Think of all the money the brokers and traders will be making at the expense of your local small businessman. “Think about it and think hard”
All that for a tax that will achieve nothing at all. (Just substidise the poluters) Are you going to support a tax on your kids and grand kids for a flimsly green ideology?
Ziggy
Ziggy,
And the dish ran away with the spoon.
Greeensborough Growler:
I think you ment.
“Last time I looked at any polls, 80% of voters understood that Climate Change was real”
And the dish ran away with the spoon.
Lets see what scientists really know:
<a http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24036736-7583,00.html
Ziggy
Ziggy,
The guy is not a scientist, he is an engineer.
http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/articles/DavidEvansbio.html
Put up job from the the BCA.
Hang your head in shame.
But, you believe in fairy tales if that is how you get your jollies.
Should never have been employed by the Australian Greenhouse Office.
Well [b]you and I[/b] had better zip our lips with our unworthy two bobs worth …..
[i][b]After you[b][/i] Greeensborough Growler
[i][b]Otherwise, hang your head in shame.
Sorry – a slower learner as the years roll by.
Greeensborough Growler:
The guy is not a scientist:”
Should never have been employed by the Australian Greenhouse Office.
Well you and I had better zip our lips with our unworthy two bobs worth …..
After you Greeensborough Growler
Otherwise, hang your head in shame.
Soylent,
Ziggy is the one who accused him of being a scientist @174. My point is he ain’t qualified as a scientist in the field and the use of the Dr monniker is a tad misleading in the context.
Someone close to me is a doctor of theology. Come over and see us next time you want your appendix out.
Greeensborough Growler:
Thats right but he would be the closest to the models and outputs they are trying to achieve. As you know if you design the programme you have would have an intimate working knowledge of the system and models that they were trying to achieve.
The’ve spent $50Billion around the world trying to prove this theory. The only thing they’ve managed to achieve is a consensus that there is no consensis.
Lets here it from another
Or another.
or another.
But one thing is for sure we know who is going to be profiting, and it isn’t the electorate of Lyne or any other electorate.
Now lets have a look at that Tax again. Because as I’ve said I dont care if you believe in man made global warming or not.
You know how we never know what fuel will cost. Thats because the arabs will sell it for $80 per barrell and the Singapore prices could be $147 so who makes all the money out of it…… Brokers and Traders. They’ll be cashing in your your electorates tax. Have a look
Getting the idea yet. Lets see if will assist the NSW tax payer.
See what others say about this enconomically disasterous tax.
The DLP is against the implementation of a Carbon Trading/tax Scheme in anyway shape or form. We Believe that the funds that will be wasted could be better used in developing renewable energies and cleaner technologies.
Ziggy
Ziggy,
Sad for you, but your credibility is shot. I am sure the link with DLP will be a thoroughly researched scientific paper though. ( controls guffaws of laughter).
My post at 170 stands unless you have some real evidence. You’re firing blanks at the moment.
Greeensborough Growler & Soylent
Pleny of sceintist in that lot including the IPCC.
But as I’ve said I dont care if Greeensborough Growler believes in fairies at the end of the garden (nothing against the greens). What I’m saying is we should not be implementing this horrific Carbon Trading Scheme.
Read to your hearts content.
Ziggy
Greeensborough Growler
Greensborough Gowler
“Sad for you, but your credibility is shot”
There not my words but if you disagree with all that lot than I know whose credability is shot.
You can believe what ever you like.
But have the decency to attack this carbon Tax and all that it stands for.
Ziggy
Greeensborough Growler:
And again, reworded and revv’ed up. Are you a “scientist” of the right discipline?
Or a B. MTy (Blogger of Mythology).
I jest without offense intended, but the point is valid.
And of course, Ziggy has a point as well. If this guy is a loser, why was he employed by the Australian Greenhouse Office to program the climate change modeling software, and was he aware of the related issues, or was he just a spreadsheet (or FullCAM) data entry lackey making some spare bucks, albeit with a Stanford Phd?).
Ziggy,
Have the decency to stop talking rubbish.
Soylent,
See 183 above.
Soylent:
I think Greeensborough is a lost cause. He is determined to have this monsterous tax introduced onto his neighbours at all costs.
The earths warming so lets tax the people and give it to the polutors.
Go one Greens
Ziggy
Soylent: See 183 above.
Don’t need to. I wrote it.
Greeensborough Growler:
I must confess that I’ve not yet read the voluminous links provided by Ziggy.
However your statement that:
I am sure the link with DLP will be a thoroughly researched scientific paper though. ( controls guffaws of laughter).
Is I guess related to his link titled
The DLP is against the implementation of a Carbon Trading/tax Scheme
No apparent link to DLP, so it would seem that you have summarily dismissed any argument put forward. I guess the hour is late, and the mind may be lazy, but why not wait till the light of day, and respond with a meaningful argument after reading the material? There may be some clangers, who knows.
Greeensborough
As I’ve said we are only against the tax..
Even if there was……….it still wouldn’t warrant introducing this tax.
If you cant see that then (Forget your brainwashing for one second)
and just look at who’s profiting from this tax, and how much it will cost the average Australian.
Ziggy
First we have the Stanford Phd previously employed by the Australian Greenhouse unqualified to offer a qualified meaningful opinion on climate change.
THEN we have the [point 170} 80% of the public understanding that Climate Change was real.
And this was an argument for your side?
And if consensus of scientists is proof, (it’s not), then what do you postulate is the meaning of a poll saying that 80% of the lay public believe in “climate change” or “global warming”?
On this game-set-match note (:), I bid Growlers & Ziggy’s good night
Ziggy,
Having had your scientific reference squashed as being unreliable, you now resort to what you always believed, “We don’t beleive in it , because….. well, we don’t believe in it”.
Please come back when you have a credible argument. This emotive nonsense is nothing but tosh, puts you fairly at odd with the majority of Australians (I dare say many of your young Australian families you go on and on about) and doesn’t correspond with what the sceince and our glorious Labor Government are telling us.
Oh, in a democracy, it’s the tyranny of the majority. Sad for you I know.
Greeensborough Growler
Lets refresh this agrument on Carbon Tax.
You discredit the engineer who designed the software modelling package to track global warming. David Evans:
You brushed of Jenifer Marohasy
“Jennifer Marohasy, a biologist and senior fellow of Melbourne-based think tank the Institute of Public Affairs. Anyone in public life who takes a position on the greenhouse gas hypothesis will ignore it at their peril.
Duffy asked Marohasy: “Is the Earth stillwarming?”
She replied: “No, actually, there has been cooling, if you take 1998 as your point of reference. If you take 2002 as your point of reference, then temperatures have plateaued. This is certainly not what you’d expect if carbon dioxide is driving temperature because carbon dioxide levels have been increasing but temperatures have actually been coming down over the last 10 years.”
Marohasy: “Actually, no. The head of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has actually acknowledged it. He talks about the apparent plateau in temperatures so far this century. So he recognises that in this century, over the past eight years, temperatures have plateaued … This is not what you’d expect, as I said, because if carbon dioxide is driving temperature then you’d expect that, given carbon dioxide levels have been continuing to increase, temperatures should be going up … So (it’s) very unexpected, not something that’s being discussed. It should be being discussed, though, because it’s very significant.”
You ignored
Geophysicist Philip Chapman says he’s not convinced by the current arguments on global warming – and says the drop is due to a slowdown in sun spot activity.
You don’t want to know about the profit.
But you still want that tax.
What did the people of lyne do to you and greens.
Ziggy
Ziggy.
Your not the only ones against the Carbon Emission tax..
Michael Costa the Nsw Treaurer has spoken out against it on a number of occasions. So there is a lot of support against it ziggy.
Keep up the good work
1984
Ahem. Actually, the ETS as it currently stands might deliver an initial windfall profit to polluters – IF the permits to emit are given out freely, only IF – and that’s why the Greens support a better design for a system that would distribute the load among the polluters, with support for low-income people who will struggle when carbon pricing effect.
Now, as far as I can tell, that’s what the DLP supports – action on climate change, with buffers for those who need it and action on big polluters. Was there something I missed?
By the way, saying that centuries of climate science got discredited by the Lavoisier group isn’t actually an argument. In any way. At all.
The science behind global warming is incontrovertible fact; within that, there are very small natural fluctuations in average global temperature that manifest themselves differently in different areas of the planet. The overall trend is steadily, overwhlemingly for an increasing global average temperature.
I don’t know if you noticed, but the 10 hottest years on record are all within the last 15-20 years.
I’d call that, along with the considered opinion of thousands of people more qualified than the pet ’sceptic’ scientists, somewhat convincing.
Now to link all this to Lyne…hmm…something about families.
And, seeing as I can give the perspective of a proud New South Welshman, saying that Michael Costa supports something is akin to saying it’s
a. political death; and
b. a terrible policy.
Thank you for pointing that out.
Josh
@194
post of the thread
The Nationals have chosen their candidate for the Port Macquarie state by-election that has resulted from Rob Oakeshott’s resignation from State Parliament. She is Lesley Williams, a nurse from Lake Cathie who got a primary vote under 20% against Oakeshott at the last state election. I am surprised by this, I was expecting the job to go to Rob Nardella, a dismissed Port Macquarie councillor and Vaile staffer. Perhaps the Nationals have realised that involvement with the Glasshouse is the one factor able to get the locals’ juices flowing. Nardella is certainly closely aligned to the Glasshouse
Labor will not run a candidate and the only other declared candidate at this stage is James Langley who ran as the Labor candidate for Lyne at the last federal election and will run as an independent now. He has resigned from the party.
Jamie Harrison, a dismissed councillor who opposed the Glasshouse and is seen as an Oakeshott protege has placed ads in the local media asking for expressions of support. He gained 5% at the last federal poll and I feel is a potential challenger. He has apparently not been harmed by the unfortunate incident involving his trousers at the Irish tavern.
My barber, Jimbo, reckons he would be a better member than any of the above and I tend to agree.
The big question is whether the Liberals will consider a run and if they will be able to find a suitable candidate in the next few weeks.
For our climate change deniers, here’s something tht compares you to tobaco denialists.
http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/who-is-behind-climate-change-deniers-20080802-3ou6.html?page=-1
Greeensborough Growler
That makes sense……Not. Now I’ve heard everything.
Why dont you listen to your own green friends.
<a href = http://risingtide.org.uk/resources/factsheets/carbontrading<who profits
Why is it when you try to discuss the carbon trade/tax scheme, the alarmists will not listen and continue on their illogical (almost religous belief)that taxing a population will somehow benefit them. A regresive tax is simply that. (A Tax of the poorest members of society). The emitters wont be coughing up anything. It will be you, and our regional farmers and companies.
I have said on a number of occasions I dont care what you believe and its obvious you dont care what I believe about global warming. So leave it at that.
Here have another look at what the left side of politics is saying.
If you live in lyne then you would have a fair Idea of the damage this tax will cause on the community.
Ziggy
GREENSBOROUGH GROWLER:
Perhaps you alarmists should take a breath and look at this article again from the Australian.
It might start to bring you back to reality.
Remember once its it its in. It would be impossible to reverse a carbon trade/tax system so any mistakes we make today will be with us forever.
Ziggy
The alarmists and extremists in this debate are the Climate Change deniers. You disbelieve the science and you disbelieve popular opinion. You’ve got your fingers in your ears, your eyes shut and your stomping like a child.
Ratbags is you.
Greeensborough Growler
Now your confused. So once again.
Just for you.
1. Alarmist = Personal who believes in man made global warming.
2. Denialist = A person who still retains and open mide and finds it difficult
to believe thaty hypothesis now that the latest satelite figurs show the
Why do you think it necessary to introduce a regressive taxation system on the population. A Tax system that both sides of parliament agree will achieve nothing but do enormous damage ?
I understand the brainwashing and indoctrination you have been experiencing.
One only has to listed to the radio and watch the TV to see millions of dollars of propaganda(tax payer funded of course) being aimed at the population.
Greeensborough Growler
Now your confused. So once again.
Just for you.
1. Alarmist = Personal who believes in man made global warming.
2. Denialist = A person who still retains and open mide and finds it difficult
to believe thaty hypothesis now that the latest satelite figurs show the
Why do you think it necessary to introduce a regressive taxation system on the population. A Tax system that both sides of parliament agree will achieve nothing but do enormous damage ?
I understand the brainwashing and indoctrination you have been experiencing.
One only has to listed to the radio and watch the TV to see millions of dollars of propaganda(tax payer funded of course) being aimed at the population.
Greeensborough Growler
Sorry bumped the space bar….
1. Alarmist = Personal who believes in man made global warming.
2. Denialist = A person who still retains and open minf and finds it difficult
to believe that hypothesis, now that the latest satelite figures show the world is
has been cooling.
Ziggy
An interesting turn in today’s TV ads
1. Nationals: negative ad attacking Oakeshott’s support for electricity privatisation ( I don’t think this is his actual position) and is therefore a Labor puppet. The day after the State Nationals broke with the Liberals to say they will oppose privatisation in tomorrow’s vote
2. Oakeshott: Endoresment from Tony Windsor, showing how much an independent has gained for the New England electorate
Cheers gusface – I imagine you’re also familiar with our glorious Treasurer.
On Port Mac – it will be the various disaffected independents, Nats and Greens, and probably the same candidates from other parties (the dreaded DLP etc) as well. Nats to win, at this stage, barring astonishing shift in political fortune (or Oakeshott’s loss federally, in which case he’ll return to his old ‘country’).
The small rural booths throughout Lyne and the booths in Taree will be the key to the result of the Lyne by-election. The so-called favourite Oakeshott has a high profile in Port Macquarie but struggles in the other parts of Lyne including Taree and the coastal farmland belt up towards Port Macquarie. The selection of High profile Former Port Macquarie Mayor Rob Drew as the Nationals candidate could split the Port Macquarie vote 50/50, With a week and a half to go it looks like the Nationals will pick up the remaining undecided vote in the key rural parts of the electorate and Taree itself. As i’ve said before during this thread the Nationals should hold Lyne.
Josh
my father in law lives taree (near racecourse).
old school 10 pd pom,always been a fib/nat leaning voter.respects tony w. a lot for his stands on issues,he said he would miss vaille but the windsor endorsement will help mr O for sure.
re costa-besides being a goose sometimes and not admitting it ie CC,i would prefer him to who???? ever the state fibs had.
that said state labor needs to redress some serious institutional malpractices and regain its political “mojo”
Paul,
The small rural booths won’t make a pinch of difference (apart from the fact that they’re small). Oakeshott won more than 50% of the primary vote in every booth in the State election including the small rural booths of Hannam Vale, Johns River, Moorland and Lansdowne – all of which are actually part of the Taree and Manning River economy and community rather than Port Macquarie and the Hastings River community.
There is absolutely no evidence anywhere that Oakeshott struggles in Taree – far from it. Apart from those 4 mentioned typical rural booths that are actually part of the Taree economy (and where Rob O got 56%, 53%, 70% and 76% of the Primary vote respectively – not TPP, but Primary), there’s also semi-rural and coastal booths of Harrington where he got 76% and Coopernook where he got 77% – both integral parts of the wider Taree area.
In fact – the closer the booth was to Taree, the higher his primary vote went.
Far from Oakeshott struggling in those areas – the opposite seems to be the case. Add to the fact that Taree itself is the largest ALP voting area and Labor won’t be running a candidate, Oakeshott is virtually guaranteed to win the Taree booths in primary votes alone (like pretty much everywhere else in the electorate – except Elands where the Greens will win).
Rob Drew’s “high profile” comes from being the mayor of a Council sacked for financial incompetence. By standing Drew as a candidate, the Nationals will likely score their lowest ever vote in non-Port Macquarie booths in the Hastings Valley, where everyone not from Port thinks the Glasshouse should be dismantled and slowly rammed piece by piece up the the rectums of the sacked councilors, while saving the especially pointy bits for the ex-Mayor himself.
So the Nats have lost every booth in Lyne that sits in the State seat of Port Macquarie, the closer the booths were to Taree at the State election the higher Oakeshotts vote was, there are very few booths to the South of Taree apart from Old Bar (and the Nats only win that by 51% TPP in federal elections – so they arent going to win it this time), the booths around Wingham have voted for any conservative but National in droves whenever given a chance (1993 for the Libs and 1998 for One Nation) – so where is this mythical vote going to come from?
Comboyne?
All 280 of them?
The only way the Nats can win is if Oakeshott gets abducted by aliens.
Oh, and should add – the Greens might come close to winning in Mt George, with its 220 odd votes.
And thinking about it even further, the Greens should probably man the Crescent Head booths more than usual to boot.
re: midnorthcoast @ #204
Sounds like the Nationals have confused themselves.
At the 1999 state election the Liberal/National coalition had a policy of full electricity privatisation. As an endorsed National Party candidate at that election, Rob Oakeshott would have supported the National Party policy.
So, using National Party logic, Rob Oakeshott is a Labor puppet because he supported National Party policy when he was a National Party candidate.
I guess that means Rob Drew is also a Labor puppet, unless he has renounced support for all National Party policies.
Josh WK:
“Our society would be under threat of extinction if we allowed equal representation of women and men” (sarcasm assumed)
I threw the “equal representation of women and men” policy into my earlier post as equal representation is not consistent with the “best person for the job”, and makes no sense as a blanket policy.
Equal pay for a man & woman doing the same job; no problem, why not. Two to one ratio of women to men in a field; no problem, why not, as long as the best person does the job. Anything else is just “jobs for the boys”, or girls, or members of whatever particular club, minority group or disaffected party is doing the lobbying..
“dreaded DLP” @ 205? Is that a sense of fear & trembling I detect?
Ziggy in one of his earlier posts had an invalid link regarding “green” opposition to the dreaded (yes, dreaded) carbon trading. I doubt that anyone bothered to actually follow through and read it as (and I do guess), most here will happily shoot the messenger and ignore the message to boot.
Nevertheless, it is worth a look:
The case against carbon trading:
http://risingtide.org.uk/resources/factsheets
As an incentive to students, the same site will probably have some material you can use against Ziggy!
Still not quite there,drilling down one level from above …. here it is:
http://risingtide.org.uk/resources/factsheets/carbontrading
Wish there was a preview mode when posting!
Agree with Possum. I initially thought Oakeshott might suffer by not having a big profile in the town areas of Taree. However, he currently represents and does well in areas approaching Taree and before the 2006 election he did well in Wingham which was then part of the PMQ electorate. However, the selection of Drew means that a National with a much lower and largely negative profile will be his opponent in Taree.
There are plenty of small rural booths in Lyne but their component of the total is low and they will not save Drew, particularly as he is from the white shoe wing of the party. The New Country Party did well in those booths in 2004 and the late and highly respected Dr Pat Stevens did well there in 2001 despite being a godless socialist (ALP), largely because he was born west of Wingham.
I think many in PMQ would also like to insert the Glasshouse in Drew’s orifices
Possum
I agree with your summary 100% re Oakshot.
I was a resident of Taree when Oashot was first elected as an Independent Member in Port Macquarrie.
Oakshot was the topic on everybodys lips at Taree at that time.
Most of my work mates were his supporters, with window stickers etc, and some manned polling booths.
I dont recall any other candidates name being mentioned at work, or in the Pubs or on the street of Taree, at the time.
So I suggest Oakshot is a shoo-inn, unless something drastic happens.
So the only interest is in how the other parties perform.
The Nationals will poll well, but a lot of their voters will vote for Oakshot.
The other interests are the Green and DLP votes.
Yes the Greens will win in Elands, but will struggle in other rural areas, and in Taree itself.
The interest will be can he DLP pick up any of the ALP vote in Taree.
My guess is they will pick up enough of the votes to establish themselves as a force in the electorate in the future.
I expect a 4/5% pimary vote for the DLP.
They will pick up some preferences, and fnish up the table, probally 3rd or 4th. Enough to make people sit up and take notic of them. but not enough to even come close to winning
Midnorthcoast,
I also agree with most of yr post.
Also believe that a lot of the ALP voters that voted for “late and highly respected Dr Pat Stevens”, will transfer to the DLP.
Dr. Stevens was highly respected in the Catholic community, and also the wider community. I epect these voters will transfer to the DLP
Goanna, even if I accept any of that, how are the church-going ALP-voting Catholics of Taree going to know that there is a DLP candidate? What the DLP stands for? That this DLP is in fact ALP-friendly as distinct from their last interactions of the DLP? Are the priests telling the congregations?
Fighting an election is more than paying your deposit and sticking a label on the ballot. For a start you need a candidate who has actually visited the electorate. Many candidates get 1-2% of the vote but is this a real intention or is it a random vote akin to a donkey vote? I get the impression that you think Michael O’Donohue’s vote will be high he will be confused with the ALP but if the voter is that ill-informed/disengaged he/she is just as likely not to vote or just vote randomly
Dear Mid North Coast,
I wanted to respond to some of your comments. I agree whole heartedly that there is more to running than simply putting on a coat and tie and saying “me too”. You need to clearly differentiate yourself from the rest of the field, so as to give electors a real reason to vote D.L.P. So I have included the following policy statement:
The Democratic Labor Party – D.L.P. has returned to Australian politics. At the 2007 Federal Election, we contested the Senate in all six states for the first time in decades. We received more than 50,000 votes in N.S.W. The D.L.P. is contesting the Federal by-election of Lyne and we need your support.
The D.L.P. stands for Australian Workers, Australian Families, and Australian Values. No more privatisation and no so called “Guest Worker” programs. We will keep public infrastructure public and we will maintain our public infrastructure to the standard that is expected by Australians.
The D.L.P. is opposed to any further privatisation in this country – especially the A.L.P. State Government’s proposed plan to privatise the power industry. The pro privatisation forces within both the major parties are threatening to sell off every single piece of infrastructure this country owns.
The D.L.P. is also opposed to any of the so called “Guest Worker” programs that are being championed by the Nationals and currently trialled by the A.L.P. Federal Government. These programs must be stopped before they take root in Australian soil.
The Lyne Federal by-election is your opportunity to say no to the privatisation of public infrastructure. The Lyne Federal by-election is your chance to say no to the so called “Guest Worker” programs. Put Australia first. Put Australians first. Vote for the D.L.P. at the Lyne by-election.
Yours truly,
Michael O’Donohue
D.L.P. – Democratic Labor Party
P.S. I am 34 years old.
Welcome to the fray Mr O’Donohue!
Some seem to have the idea that the DLP is for old blokes living in the past.
I trust that won’t be you and wish you every success.
Where do you live?
Why won’t you come to the candidate night?
Soylent:
We dont have to bow to these greenies.
We dont have to subscibe to a 2 Party Policy. The DLP is back and is the only party that has the Australian Traditional christian values built into it’s constitution.
Lets stop the carbon tax that will destroy this nation and rural commuities forever.
Whats happening elsewhere.
<a href= http://www.watoday.com.au/national/new-order-in-the-house-20080823-40y3.html?page=6
Go the DLP …………The Only real Alternative
Or as Michael says….. A Better way than Cargon Taxing.
Ziggy
Dear Mid North Coast,
I assume that this question has been asked in good faith and so I will try to answer in good faith. My residential address has been a matter of public record since the nominations were declared on Friday the 15th of August and has been readily available on the A.E.C. website continuously and still is. I am currently residing in Warabrook which is a suburb in Newcastle. I have travelled widely, working as a secondary school teacher. The last location in which I worked was the Northern Territory, but I have spent most of my life in N.S.W. Please note that this is a Federal byelection, not a local government election (which does have residential restrictions), and so it should be about big issues, up to and including foreign policy. If I should be so blessed as to win the byelection, I would be overjoyed at the prospect of living in Lyne.
Regards
Michael O’Donohue – D.L.P. Candidate for Lyne
P.S. I have answered every email and email invitation I have received.
My email address is also a matter of public record.
dlpfornsw@hotmail.com
Can the newly resurgent DLP not find some youngster who lives with his potential constituents (this is a much more important factor in regional rather than metropolitan areas)
Dear Mid North Coast,
I have answered some of your questions, now perhaps you might be kind enough to reciprocate. How do you justify further privatisation? In particular, the proposed privatisation of the N.S.W. power industry.
Regards
Michael O’Donohue
D.L.P. Candidate for Lyne
Dear Mid North Coast,
And do you have anything to say about the so called “Guest Worker” programs?
This may become a very pressing “regional” issue – as you put it.
Regards
Michael O’Donohue
D.L.P. Candidate for Lyne
Hey, you are the one standing for parliament and I am probably the only person on this forum capable of voting for you. Your policies are so brilliant that I was going to volunteer to hand out your HTVs but If you take that attitude you can forget it.
Dear Mid North Coast,
If you or any others would like to assist with the D.L.P. campaign, please contact me via my email address: dlpfornsw@hotmail.com or you can phone me on 0412 634 203
I would be more than happy to discuss the matter further over the phone. I have genuinely attempted to keep all my posts positive and focussed on policy.
Regards
Michael O’Donohue
D.L.P. Candidate for Lyne
midnorthcoast:
You might want to join or head up the local branch
Join resurgence
Ziggy
O’Donohue: your email address looks more like a general address the state office of the party would have (not to mention that it’s a Hotmail address)… surely you rate an odonohue @ dlp.org.au or something. Is there more than one DLP member in NSW, or are you it?
Also, the DLP website (apart from being quite badly designed) doesn’t mention either you or the Lyne by-election anywhere. Why so? It’s linked in your posts, I follow it and see nothing.
If i still lived in Taree i would be happy to join the local branch, and assist the DLP to reestablish itself as a force in the electorate.
Maybe you could entice Mark Vaile to join.
He could use his knowledge and influence to help steer the party in the right direction in the area.
I know his best wishes are behind the DLP, but of course he can not come out publically and endorse the DLP candidate
“Australian Traditional christian values built into it’s constitution.”
Just what are these ATCs?
Bird of paradox:
“your email address looks more like a general address”
My, that was cutting critique, though not in the spirit of political discussion!
Solyent
Bird is getting desperate to find something to attack the DLP about and the best she can come up with is to criticise the candidates Email address.
That says that the DLP is definately going in the right direction and promoting good policies that are in t he best interests of all australia.
Now if the candidate can only come up with a better Email address he is ‘home and hosed’. !!!!!!
thanks for the vote of confidence Bird.
Dear Mid North Coast,
There seems to be something of a preoccupation with party size (and other paraphernalia) rather than party policy. You don’t join a political party because it is big or because it is small. You join a political party because you believe in its constitution, its principles and its policies. You join a political party because you love what it represents. Similarly, when it comes to casting your vote – you vote for the party and policies that you believe in. Another reason why I am running for the D.L.P. in Lyne is because of the D.L.P. supporters whom I have met and befriended along the way. These individuals represent what I love most about Australia. Many of them are older Australians who have lived quite selfless lives and wish to live in an Australia with values and institutions that are not completely alien to the ones they grew up with. I find that I share the cares and concerns of these men and women. I have also found myself inspired and enthused by their generosity of spirit and their kind heartedness and their sense of decency. These are the Australians that I aspire to represent. Since the 2007 Federal Election we know for a fact that there are more than 1,000 electors in Lyne who are prepared to vote D.L.P. We want to give them and every other elector the opportunity to vote D.L.P. again.
Regards
Michael O’Donohue
D.L.P. Candidate for Lyne
Mr O’Donohue,
Do you agree with the alarmist ratbags suporting you on this blog regarding Climate Change?
Greeensborough Growler :
Not climate change. Carbon Tax.
Ziggy
Mr O’Donohue:
“P.S. I am 34 years old.”
So am I, but that’s no excuse.
Living in Newcastle but standing for Lyne? What do you actually know about the electorate?
No offence – but most of the community will know you’re a blow in, and not take very kindly too it.
If the DLP were serious – and I am starting to have my doubts – they would have selected a local candidate.Local recognition, local roots, local experience counts for everything in rural seats.
For instance, what would you do if elected to deal with the mouths of the Manning?
As for the “guest worker” program – do you like fruit rotting on the trees because it cant be harvested to be brought to market (and in the process endangering the economic viability of some regional communities)?
What would you suggest is the solution to a tight labour market allowing labour flow to it’s highest value uses in a boom, and leaving industries like horticulture that are ordinarily cost sustainable over the cycle, being put in long term danger because of short to medium term labour shortages?
And why do you believe in big government on the one hand, but then government just small enough to fit through the bedroom window on the other?
And I’m asking this as someone that spent the first 20 years of their life in the Manning Valley, has most of my family there and will undoubtedly move back there in the future.
And another question to Mr O’Donohue
If the DLP were really concerned about the costs of an emissions trading system in rural and regional Australia, why have we not heard a peep out of them about the potential for carbon abatement and carbon credit creation schemes in regional Australia? While you may well not believe in AGW (and I really care not if you do or don’t) – the fact that the world is moving down that path for risk management reasons alone makes the position of the DLP somewhat politically juvenile.
If the DLP actually gave three fifths of five eights of sweet FA concern about the costs of an ETS on rural and regional Australia, they would be doing more than their best imitation of Nancy Reagan just saying no… if you get my drift.
POSSUM COMITATUS:
I think michael and the team in Nsw are doing far more than their share.
Personally I think they are giving 8 eights of an effort. Unlike the major parties they are funding this from their own pockets. Michael has a family and is also a contract teacher. He comes from a rural background and loves Nsw and the areas in lyne.
He is not a wealthy man, in fact most of the DLP team are from working class with a love for their country and their state and fund most of their campaigns from thier own pockets.
I am from Queensland and am trying to get stickers etc made up for transport drivers who work our of Port Macquarie and Taree who have come north for work and cant always make it home on weekends because of fuel cost. They like most regional small businesses are well aware of the pending danger of the ETS.
Think about it… Brokers are already cashing in on hard working locals with fuel.
(Arabs sell it for $80 and the singapore price is $147) who is making the money.
Certainly not their locally owned transport companies who cant even make it home some weekends.
They are all concerned about the ETS and my only hope is that I can get them printed before September 6th. I think its an honour to know michael who is and will be campaigning on foot around Port Macquarie on Saturday and Sunday.
If you would like to help michael and his team please dont hesitate to contact him by phone. We are all doing this out of love for our country and our belief in decentralisation of which the ETS will destroy.
The ETS is a regressive Tax. (That means it takes from the poor to give to the rich) the poor include consumers (you) and regional small businesses & farmers,
to give to the rich (the emitters & poluters).
This is just another GST in the form of Carbon, Which also has the potential to control everything we do in life right down to how many children we can have.
I’ll leave you with this link.
<a href = http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23358915-7583,00.html
Ziggy
Bird of paradox
I have designed a new website design with all states having their own page on local and state issues. They should be running by the next general election.
As I have said before we are all volunteers (and our members fund everything) that love this country (Unlike the corporations that run the majors).
Ask anyone in the ALP or the Liberal party whether they feel part of the party process.
Its a sad world if marketing and presentation overides principles and policies.
Should you wish to lend a hand in the campaign or donate please dont hesitate to contact michael by phone or email.
Ziggy
Ziggy,
So now you agree with CC, but don’t want to do anything about it.
Squirrells are you.
Ziggy,
Michael could be St. Michael – but if he’s not a local, it will matter in a place like Lyne – regardless if in an ideal world it ought to or not. Personally I come down on the side of it ought to being a matter of import… but that’s just me.
If the Transport workers are concerned they should unionise. They’ve been ripped off for donkeys and have never organised to act in concert to raise their incomes. An ETS will increase the price of their inputs, which they are fully within their rights pass on. If the Transport workers got their act together, they would be one of the least affected industries in terms of price absorption.
We dont actually know the incidence of an ETS. We dont know who it hits, where and how because it hasnt actually been designed yet. Because of it’s complexity (in terms of how it operates, who it hits, at what cost – as well as the lack of any indication of whether there will be any carbon credit creation opportunities built into the system) – waxing lyrical on an ETS being Teh End of Teh World is just political posturing. (and look, I appreciate that such posturing is what happens in an election – but this is Pollbludger – we know how these things work around here
)
Possum Comitatus
I was brought up in the country and as my father and probably your father said you’ve got a brain (Girley or sony jim) so use it.
Here’s another link from the ALP side that supports it.
The TWU treats us as the little brother. They wont help the contractors or small businesses any support and they treat the DLP as the poor cousin.
ETS’s are already running around the world and we know exactly who they’ll hit.
The sad part is though that both sides of government agree that it will achieve nothing at all.
Ziggy
Ziggy – we wont really know what the ETS will be until:
1. The Treasury modeling is released.
Which then starts
2. The horsetrading that will take a fair while to finish.
12 months at least. Until then, everything said about the consequences of an ETS is mostly the gun of political rhetoric firing copious quantities of blanks.
Possum Comitatus:
“Possum Comitatus Says:
“If the Transport workers got their act together, they would be one of the least affected industries in terms of price absorption.”
Possum Comitatus
lets face it the TWU has sold out to the corporate ALP. They wont back the workers because they are using the union as a career move. (into the ALP)
You only have to look at the last election to see that. (thats why membership is falling).
The DLP hasn’t had an influence in the unions since 1984.
We normally get on well in regional centres because of our decentralisation policies that are similar to the Nationals.
On the ETS though we Stand Alone. Thats okay because the DLP stand on principle and we will fight this one out till the end. (even if it costs me everthing)
I love this country and and will not stand by and allow a carbon trading scheme which will take away the free will of all people whether they be country or city.
I have always believed that the rural people have more common sense then city dwellers and that why I think the party is making a stand in lyne.
Ziggy
Possum Comitatus:
One only has to look at the models on offer.
The all point to a regressive tax on the people.
As you know under the MAI signed with the UN (ITC) we cant impose any undue tarriffs or restrictsions on TNC’s (Transnational Corportations) or Global Countries.
We are though allowed to impose those restrictions on our own regional businesses So under our agreement our regional companies will fund the global poluters.
If we try to impose undue traffifs or restrictions they maintain the right to have the Australian community compensate them or chose to move offshore with their workers.
Yes it is a horrible agreement but it stands. So no matter which way you look at it an ETS is heads they win tails we loose.
Ziggy
Just a couple of points of order Ziggy – it’s under the WTO that we cant impose tariffs on certain goods without the expectation of having retaliatory trade restrictions imposed upon our own exports by other countries. Which is fair enough – there’s no such thing as a free lunch (and to save Billbowes bandwidth here we wont even get to the cost/benefit analysis of tariffs themselves)
The Multilateral Agreement on Investment really has nothing to do with it – it couldn’t, the agreement was never implemented. Once France backed out, it fell in a heap because of the OECD consensus rules.
I just don’t understand when people say that the MAI has rooned us all – it was an agreement never signed and never implemented by anyone.
But the big thing with the ETS (like with just about every other major economic change) is that we aren’t dealing with a pie whose size never changes, so we aren’t dealing with a system where we’re fighting over the size of the pieces of that static pie.
We need to see the proposed ETS system first before we can rationally make a judgment on it, because without seeing it, without seeing the minutia and the detail (and without knowing whether carbon credit creation processes exist within it) – we don’t know the size of the pie we’re talking about, and hence cant really start comparing which mob gets the biggest slice.
Possum Comitatus
If its not going to achieve anything. (I think we all agree with that)
Why bother looking at any scheme.
Its a no win system for Australia. (But has the potential of real damage)
You and I both know that if we turned everything off in this country it would make not difference at all to any perceived threat to man made global warming.
I hope they dont just want to creat an industry of tax for the sake of it.
Why are we even looking at it.? We should be more involved in incentives to producing greener technologies or puting up tax consessions for R&D in renewable energies.
That way we will get a result that is measurable.
Dont you aree ? (and a lot safer and cheaper)
Ziggy
Greeensborough Growler:
Climate change has been happening naturally for thousands of years.
You were saying that it was man made Glaboal Warming.
I was trying to discuss the carbon tax. So I suggested that we agree on a consensis that there was no consensis on man made global warming.
I attempted many times to proceed to the next subject but you couldn’t or wouldn’t move on to the Carbon Tax system question.
CC never came into the discussions.
Ziggy
Actually Ziggy, I think Australia could come out a winner with a properly designed ETS, which if done well could encourage other countries that may be reluctant over CC amelioration systems to come down the same route, and make a massive contribution to reducing global particulate pollution as well as hitting the risk management targets needed to be confident of nuetralising any AGW effects associated with climate change.
From my perspective – which is really an economic perspective based on pareto optimality, I dont need to believe or not that AGW exists, just that enough people believe it’s true and act accordinly, as well as there being enough evidence to suggest that it *might* be true that we should act because of simple risk, and should act pretty urgently.
The key is how to act in a way that creates a win/win situation (or at least the pareto optimal way that allows some to win, but doesnt allow anyone to lose) broadly speaking?
So I’ll withold my judgement until I see the ETS details – but I think action needs to be taken, and taken pretty urgently as a matter of risk management alone.
Possum Comitatus:
Thats what they said about the GST.
I have never seen a tax implemented where it is a win win situation.
The ALP governement wants this implemented by 2010.
If we wait around till the reports, it may be too late to put a stop to it.
I have read all the reports from the CSIRO re Australia leading with new technologies, and cashing in on new carbon economies.
I believe that we could achieve that anyway and would be in a better position to do so without a ETS.
I spoke to a farmer recently who had replanted trees in areas that were once forest areas on his property. He is very consious of the environment and his footprint reading was very low, he was congratulated and infomed that he may be able to gain carbon credits. They then informed him that if the position changed he would be penalised.
I believe in Fee Simple, if he needs to change or adapt to a market change to make a living he should be able to. I dont believe removing the basic right to use their land to earn an income should be taken away from them. This is what will happen under such a system.
We need to compensate for initiative not penalise a land owner for trying to make a living. That way we would still achieve those goals and implement a risk management system. The risk managment system we should be implementing is one the rewards the land owners for being responsible, not tax them when they are trying to survive.
I aslo believe that this tax should be put to the public at a general election,
as was the GST.
Ziggy
On a different topic to carbon tax and CC.
Articule in THE AGE on Bills before the Victorian Upper House on Abortion and also on Euthenasia.
It demonstrates the effect that just 1 DLP memer of Parliment can have on political discussion.
(”Liberal MP John Vogels has had more than his fair share of experience of death. His three brothers died at ages varying from a couple of days to 40 years. His wife and two best friends died in the space of about three years, all of cancer. “And do you know something? Each and every one of them fought to the last minute to stay alive,” Vogels told Parliament. His mother died last year, aged 93. “She had led a wonderful life, but the last six months were terrible. She had lost the circulation to her feet, and her legs had to be amputated. I thought, ‘I wish mum did not have to go through any of this suffering and that she could just be helped to pass on’, because that is what mum wanted. She believed in heaven. She told me, ‘Dad is up there waiting for me; I have got a lot to tell him, and I just want to pass on’.”
Vogels began the debate thinking he would support Hartland’s bill. But after listening to the speeches of his colleagues, he changed his mind. “I do not have the guts to end someone else’s life,” he concluded. “Although I understand the good intentions of the bill, after weighing it up and in all conscience, I cannot support it.”
One of the speakers who swayed Vogels was the DLP’s Peter Kavanagh. He acknowledged the bill was motivated by compassion, but said legislators had an obligation to use their intellect, reasoning and understanding of human nature. Arguing that betrayal is “almost always done with a kiss”, Kavanagh said that if the bill were passed, he could envisage thousands of circumstances in which vulnerable people would come under pressure to “volunteer” to be killed.”)
WE certainly need more DLP members in parliments in Australia using “their intellect, reasoning and understanding of human nature.” in informed debate
You guys crack me up.
How is this for a scenario based on the flow of preferences?
Let say it a close fight. Drew doesn’t get enough votes to get in outright. Oakeshott doesn’t get enough to get in outright. Susie Russell of the Greens doesn’t get enough to get in outright, which is no surprise. Lets face it DLP guys, the Greens are the third party in the picture here climate change or not.
Oakeshott’s prefs don’t go anywhere because he’s “Independant”. Drew has put Susie before Oakeshott. Susie has put Oakeshott before Drew. The Fishing, DLP, CDP send all their prefs to Drew.
What happens if it gets to the point where the Nationals prefs flow into Susies basket????
All you conservatives could end up electing a Green for Lyne. The only way you can prevent that scenario would be to vote for Oakeshott.
Well thats got you stumped!
It ain’t much of a scenario since no one will be going to preferences, except for obscure reasons like placing Lyne on the pendulum – probably somewhere the 70/30 TPP mark.
Oh well, still, just checking the stats on our Three Rivers Greens website
three-rivers.nsw.greens.org.a and we’re getting plenty of traffic from this page. Thanks for talking so much about the Greens.
Don’t get Rob’d, vote for Susie
Odge:
Re: “we’re getting plenty of traffic from this page”
Golden rule explains all …. Know thine enemy!
Odge: the preferences are going to have to go somewhere. This is a federal by-election, so preferential voting ain’t optional… chin up, it means the major parties can’t play the dirty trick on you lot like in the last NSW election (Balmain, Marrickville).
As for your scenario: this is all observation from the other side of the country, but if Oakeshott’s as popular as everybody keeps saying he is, he’ll get a massive amount of the vote, taken off the Nats and ALP. He’ll win by some absurd margin, over who – well, if the Greens get primary vote 3-5% above the Nats (ie: if Drew cops a real pasting), that’ll be you. So get campaigning if you want to embarrass the Nats.
LOL, the web traffic has been on a steady rise. Don’t stay on the site too long, you might get corrupted, even converted.
This page is just one of many sources of traffic. How about you google this “lyne candidate” and see who’s bio is ranking highest out of our candidates.
BIRD OF PARADOX:
BIRD Says: if the Greens get primary vote 3-5% above the Nats ?
In Lyne. I dont think so, and even if they did the preferences would push Drew in.
Ziggy
Bird
You are dreaming if you think the Greens will get a primry vote better than the Nats.
(Or perhaps youhave been smoking some ot that stuff yr Green friends grow up Elands way.)
The Nats will easily outpoll the Greens in Taree, where Mark Vaile lives, and in the country areas, except for the Hillbilly Green areas.
DLP voters will be spread across all areas and will mainly come from young working families
As I will be in Sydney next week, I pre-polled in Taree at lunch time today. At the booth there were 3 Oakeshott supporters handing out HTVs, a tacky display with Green HTVs and an unattended card table for the Nationals. In my purely unscientific observation over 10 minutes, none of the electors bothered with a Nationals or Green HTV but all (about 20 as it was lunchtime) approached Oakeshott’s supporters. If this is Drew’s heartland, he is in deep trouble.
I was disconcerted by the HTVs of Oakeshott and the Greens. Oakeshott just had a 1 against his name with no suggestions for prefrences but a highlighted section saying all squares must be filled. The Greens had a 1 against Russell and a 2 against Oakeshott but nothing to say all squares must be filled. It will be interesting to see the informal vote. Drew had a traditional HTV with all squares filled, 2nd preference went to the Shooter’s Party and 3rd to the DLP.
My Prediction for First preferences:
Oakeshott 65
Drew 18
Russell 7 (their result in the LC for PMQ at the last state election)
Shooter’s 5 (their result in the LC for PMQ at the last state election)
Informal 2
All others 3 (In the order of Citizen’s Electoral council, DLP and 2 Independents)
oakeshott country :
I didnt know that there was a shooters party candidate standing.
Oakshott 65% ??????
So you think that all he ALP vote will go to Oakshott ?
Glad your not running the polls.
Ziggy
Interesting indeed. Is just numbering the first two preferences and leaving the rest blank valid in NSW state elections?
Bird of paradox:
The other thing is where the traditional liberal voters will place their vote.
Perhaps this might be an indication <a href = http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24253127-5006787,00.html<No to how to vote
Ziggy
Bird of paradox
Lets try that again…….
Ziggy
My mistake : I mistook the Fishing Party candidate for a Shooter’s Party
I will change my prediction to:
Oakeshott 65
Drew Nationals 18
Russell Greens 7 (their result in the LC for PMQ at the last state election)
Fishers 5 (their result in the LC for PMQ at the last state election + 2% Donkey)
Informal 2
All others 3 (In the order of Citizen’s Electoral council, DLP and 2 Independents
Yes, going on the last state election results for Port Macquarie, most Labor voters will go to Oakeshott. In a Federal Election Labor usually gets about 32 -35% and would expect a similar result in a state election if Oakeshott was not standing. Last Years’ state election result was Oakeshott 67 National 19 Labour 9 Green 3, so more than 20% of voters have already left Labor mainly for Oakeshott. The remaining die-hard Labor supporters will split between the Greens and Oakeshott boosting the Greens to around 10%.
In other news per today’s Port News http://www.portnews.com.au/ :
1. Senator Heffernan has suggested the Liberals run in the Port Macquarie State by-election creating the expected response from the Nationals
2. There has been a negative reaction to the National’s negative TV ad
3. A successful (well at least 150 people turned up) candidate’s night was held. All candidates except Drew (who claimed it was a set up organised by his anti-development opposition on council – the Resident’s Action Network) and the DLP candidate (who was unavailable) turned up. No more candidates’s nights are planned
4. The dismissed deputy mayor Bob Sharpham (who started out as leader of the R A N and then went pro-development) will run in the Port Macquarie by-election as an independent – I am interested where his preferences go – I suspect he will strongly favour the Nationals (some believe that he was always a Nationals stooge)
If Michael O’Donoghue is about – can I ask what is his view of the 4th Pod ?
midnorthcoast:
If port macquarie is like any other seat. Voters dont tend to follow the same pattern in Federal as they do in the state.
In november last year the Nationals Mark Vaile scored 52% of the primary, it seems highly unlikely they would fall to as little as 18%.
People vote differently totally different federally as they do in the state.
I would hardly think labor voters would view Oakeshott in anyway a replacement for a labor candidate.
Sussie may pick up some primary but by preferencing oakeshot 2nd have taken themselves out of the race.
Labor voters would be aware of that and may surprise you. The suprise election of the DLP canidate in Victoria come for the ALP preferences. I also think that it would be a no win for them puting in a independent National instead of a sitting National.
Ziggy
I guess we will see but I am here and I have followed this closely.
It is all about grass-roots politics. Oakeshott is seen as such a good local member that the discussion of party labels and ideologies is largely irrelavent. Vaile as a politician was not particularly popular but in a straight Labor v Nationals fight would always get an absolute majority. As shown by Tony Windsor in New England this becomes meaningless if a good independent is available.The Nationals regularly got > 60% primary in Port Macquarie but this was reduced to 5%. What is your bet?
Half that post went missing. To restart:
The Nationals regularly got > 60% in Port Macquarie but this was reduced to 5% primary. What is your bet?
I can’t get the post to work. So I won’t try any more.
Dear Possum Comitatus
The community know that the National Party politicians have been pretending to be country focused for generations now. Many of the Nats look, sound and ARE city Liberals. Many Nat pollies wish to merge with the Liberals.
Local communities anywhere would prefer to have a patriotic Aussie DLP MP who puts the interests of both farmers and workers and pensioners and families ahead of corporate interests. The ALP is just another Liberal Party; and the National Party is just another Liberal Party. Who can be serious with these crews who have sold out Australia socially and economically especially since the mid 1980s with all the privatisations. Only the big end of town benefits.
Vote DLP. We say a Big NO to privatisations; and a big NO to guest workers where local Aussies can be found, and employed.
The “local roots” of pro big business and pro neo- economic rationalist National Party politicians?! Gimme a break !
Michael Webb
DLP President- NSW Branch
midnorthcoast:
So I take it that Port Macquarie is the bulk of the population of Lyne, is that correct ? With Taree being the second biggest centre.
What percentage of lyne would Port Macquarie make up?
Ziggy
Port Macquarie electorate is currently just over 50% of Lyne but includes boothe that are traditionally seen as part of the Manning, Oakeshott has in the past represented a larger slice including Wingham and Cundletown.
In part of the post that was omitted I said that I had an initial feeling that Oakeshott may have been less popular in Taree town area but if Drew is unable to staff the pre-poll booth (just as the nationals have been unable to staff the Port Macquarie booths in the last two elections) thes Oakeshott is headed for a significant victory
As that worked, I will try some of the rest of my post.
You have said that Labor voters will support the DLP in Lyne because a Victorian DLP MLC was elected on ALP preferences. But NSW is not Victoria and unless the priests have been spruiking for him (and I have missed Mass for the last few weeks) no one in this electorate knows that there is a candidate that identifies himself as DLP. Particularly as he is a blow-in who can’t even come to candidate functions (always a publicity gift for marginal candidates). Any ALP voter old enough to have voted last time there was a DLP candidate in Lyne (They would now be a minimum of 54 years old) is not suddenly going to vote for a DLP candidate with a sub-zero profile just because they have got (is it Labor or Labour) in their party name.
You obviously have significant conections with these people who should be more pitied than encouraged, so in the absence of Mr O’Donoghue and his partner on the senate ticket who had the same surname perhaps you might answer:
1. Is there a DLP branch in LYne? If so how can I contact the secretary (a local number or physical address rather than a mobile please)?
2. As Possum has already asked, what is the policy on the entrances of the Manning?
3. What is the DLP policy on the 4th pod?
These are the questions that are being asked rather than some obscure ways of controlling the world that appear on a 2nd rate web site.
midnorthcoast:
You may have to ask Michael some of those questions. He is campaigning over the weekend.
On the 4th Pod though I believe that he would be in support, in line with our federal policy. Improvements in the provision of health is a priority for the DLP and I believe a DLP member would work far better with the ALP governments (Both federal and state) then an independent former National member.
Health.
“Substantially increased funding for hospices and for the provision of palliative care for the terminally ill.
Increased availability of funding for after care and home nursing services to help free up hospital facilities and meet increasing demand for emergency and acute beds, particularly for the aged.
Increased funding to outer metropolitan and regional hospitals to prevent closures due to rationalisation and ensure round the clock access to emergency services.”
The DLP has a strong focus on regional issues and unlike the ALP centralists they believes in decentralisation and have a strong focus on regional development.
This is a federal seat and if Oakeshott honestly believed in pushing these policies forward, the electorate would have been better served by him remaining in his state seat.
Ziggy
midnorthcoast:
The DLP is looking for new members and supporters. Anyone wishing to support us or join the rebuilding of the DLP contact Michael on the mobile listed or email dlpfornsw@hotmail.com.
Ziggy
So I take it te answer is No
midnorthcoast:
Yes on the 4th Pod.
You should direct your other questions to the NSW State branch or Michael himself.
I have asked him and no one identifying himself as midnorhtcoast has made any contact at all by phone or email.
Ziggy
There is no party infrastructure in Lyne – yes or no
Don’t write Mayo off to the Libs yet. Water activist and Independent Di Bell is emerging as a powerful voice for the people of Mayo. Fellow SA and newly appointed Senator Nick Xenophon has thrown out all stops to support Di in her campaign saying “Di’s for water and I’m for Di”. She also has support from John Schumann who in the 1996 election mounted a serious challenge to Alexander Downer. For more info see http://www.vote4di.com
midnorthcoast:
You’re obviously obsessed with big party infrastructure. (Does the two party duopoly make you feel comfortable) or are really interested.
The DLP have active members in the lyne electrote yes. Whether they have a branch or are party of a Regional Branch (Which is common in smaller parties)
i dont know, I have suggested though who you can contact in that regard should you wish to participate.
If this was a state election of which oakeshott would be more suited, then I would be of the same opinion. But this is a federal bi election, and the voters of Lyne are aware of that.
Yes the new member may, if part of a team may be able to assert pressure on the federal government about state and some local issues, but if someone was unsuccessful at the state level to achieve these goals, then why would he think the possition would be any easier at the federal level. I Believe that the Nationals or a DLP candidate would be better suited.
In saying that I have the highest respect for independents like Peter Windsor and Bob Katter but they rarely are able to have input into the major federal issues and problems of which the country is now facing. Besides Oakeshott hasn’t campaigned on any big federal issues. (correct me if I’m wrong, you know what the media is like).
ALP voters are faced with the question who do they want to represent them on federal issues. A National, An Independent National or another Labor party.
Most ALP voters (both young and old) grown past the anomosity of the past. They see that the DLP is a viable option and probably well suited for this electorate. With clear differences in their federal policy stand.
Ziggy
THE DLP IS NOT, HAS NEVER BEEN AND WILL NEVER BE “ANOTHER LABOR PARTY”
Although their sole strategy in this by-election seems to be to confuse people who normally vote labor into voting for them because they have a similar name.
How do we know what connection if any these people have with the splinter group set up in the 1950s whose sole aim was to deprive the ALP of government and which disappeared with its reason d’etre in 1972?
This site is for the discussion of psephology not policy but you have bored us all onto death with your obsession with someone who will be lucky to get his deposit back. I will not comment on this again no matter how provocative you try to be. I will continue to comment on the events in the electorate over the next week.
midnorthcoast:
Talk about credibility Shot Mr Midnorthcoast.
Incredible that the high court and the Australian Electoral commission got it wrong but northmidcoast knows it all. Changes history on the fly.
Look its quite obvious that you are part of oakeshotts PR team but if you that confident then you shouldn’t have to worry. (65%).
You said: “But I cant even tell what the DLP want people to think they stand for. Except maybe they say whatever the person they are talking to wants to believe “?
We’ve presented a host of policies on our side. All I’ve heard from Oakeshott are 2 state policies. I keep reminding you that this is a federal election.
All you keep on about is that you’re only interested in big party infrastructure. Perhaps that’s why the country is in such a mess. Spend big win the seat. Sell off the country and rubbish any minor party that tries to have a go.
If your predication is right that Oakeshott will get 65% of the primary and the Greens have been silly enough to preference him (thereby eliminating themselves) then what is there left to debate.
And a little on the Labor partys history article
Ziggy
midnorthcoast:
Talk about credibility Shot Mr Midnorthcoast.
Incredible that the high court and the Australian Electoral commission got it wrong but northmidcoast knows it all. Changes history on the fly.
Look its quite obvious that you are part of oakeshotts PR team but if you that confident then you shouldn’t have to worry. (65%).
You said: “But I cant even tell what the DLP want people to think they stand for. Except maybe they say whatever the person they are talking to wants to believe “?
We’ve presented a host of policies on our side. All I’ve heard from Oakeshott are 2 state policies. I keep reminding you that this is a federal election.
All you keep on about is that you’re only interested in big party infrastructure. Perhaps that’s why the country is in such a mess. Spend big win the seat. Sell off the country and rubbish any minor party that tries to have a go.
If your predication is right that Oakeshott will get 65% of the primary and the Greens have been silly enough to preference him (thereby eliminating themselves) then what is there left to debate.
And a little on the Labor partys history
article
Ziggy
Midnorthcoast
your suggestion that (THE DLP IS NOT, HAS NEVER BEEN AND WILL NEVER BE “ANOTHER LABOR PARTY”)
is an insult to all the great Labor men who sacrificed their seats and careers for the principles of the Labor movement.
You should hang your head in shame for even suggesting they were not Labour men.
These men were the greatest Labor men, and members of parliment that this country has ever produced.
They are the inspiration for all of us in the DLP who carry on in their great tradition of putting our country and principal before personal gain.
If you are any sort of a man at all you will retract that statement
GOANNA:
I think its a waste of time talking to midnorthcoast, he’s obviously not a labor man. Just a PR man for Oakeshott.
Ziggy
The only reported local news today is that Barnaby Joyce was in the electorate to support Drew. They toured the Buckett’s Way and called for increased Federal funding for rural roads. Joyce stated that federal politics was a balance between the two sides of politics (”one goes right and one goes left”) and that local funding was achieved through the argy-bargy of the two sides. An independent, he stated, is of necessity excluded from this process. There were no reported events from Oakeshott or the other candidates.
Dear MidNorthCoast
To me, you lack credibility with your remarks about the DLP and what we stand for and who we represent.
The Nationals and their farmer organisations, to my way of thinking, have not represented the farmers and people of the bush for several generations now.
Why take the big parties seriously, except for the social and economic harms they do to the average dinky di Aussie?
DLP people are in the main Christians of various denominations and are upset by how the ALP is just another party of big business and of anti family and anti Church political correctness agendas.
There are Nats/Libs and ALP pollies who are supporting ideological tax regimes to impoverish the average Aussie working man and family. This is unacceptable.
The DLP are back to stay and to flourish.
Michael Webb
“that local funding was achieved through the argy-bargy of the two sides. An independent, he stated, is of necessity excluded from this process”
I thought there was a study which showed that funding in the independents electorates was on par or better than others.
Yes, I admire Joyce’s chutzpah in coming up with that one. On further reflection I think Joyce said the two sides of politics were cog wheels one turning left, the other right.
Very little in the local media today except puff pieces that the main candidates are getting excited about the polls and a visit from a Teachers’ union honcho who called for more funding. I will wait to see what this evening’s TV ads bring.
The evening news via prime TV and NBN – after a story of a whale caught in a fishing net and a story about the refurbishment of the toilet block in Bellingen.
Luke Hartsuyker (Cowper) and Rob Drew had a street walk in Taree to point out the rising cost of living and the Rudd government’s waste of funds with price watch
Oakeshott ads continue on a fairly benign and beige course and promise federal support for widening the Highway between Port macquarie and kempsey and enlarging Port Macquarie Hospital (the 4th pod).
The Nationals ads complain that Oakeshott co-operation with Labor has not resulted in the extension of the Hospital and reduced its waiting list -”Oakeshott he is too close to Labor” (Those who know of the unique history of this hospital and the role of the Nationals may be surprised by this attack).
DLP are just a bunch of papish plotters – will turn this country to an outpost of the Vatican.
I’m off to watch the Da Vinci Code to see their diabolical schemes.
Riccardo:
Thats right Riccardo you probably believe the Da Vinci code as well.
You know it was written for the enjoyment of women ages 18-40 dont you.
Yep you certainly sound like a big Shiela.
Ziggy
Hey Riccardo,
The Da Vinci code was a very boring movie. The characters sounded serious but were signifying n-o-t-h-i-n-g. Banal dead beat conspircy plot with $$$ as their earthly reward my good man.
Dr Frank Mobbs can assist you there:
http://www.thetruthdecoded.org.au/The-Da-Vinci-Lie-with-Dr-Frank-Mobbs.php
Michael Webb
Michael Webb,
Sounds like the DLP campaign in Lyne.
Greeensborough Growler :
No still alive and kicking. But according to midnorthcoast everybody’s campaign is over except oakeshott. He states he’s polling 65% the greens about 7% and everybody else to make up the leftovers.
Is he Oakeshotts campaign manager or what ?
Ziggy
Ziggy,
Still alive. Ha!
The parrot is dead.
I’d just love to know what this is supposed to mean. You do realise that if the Greens’ second preferences get counted, it’s because they got eliminated already… right?
Greeensborough Growler: To confuse the umm, pythonesque analogies ….
I’m not dead yet!
Dear GG,
LOL, now that is just conspiratorial ‘thinking’ on your part.
I have been told by an acquaintance that he has recieved an unauthorised and unsigned postcard through the mail with the simple message “A vote for Oakeshott is a vote for labor” in a facsimile hand written style. He is sending it across for me to have a look at.
Interestingly the only article in today’s papers is in the Macleay Argus reassuring its Kempsey readers that they are no longer in the electorate and do not have to vote.
For a by-election that may have a significant long term effect on the National party, it is hardly setting the place alight.
I think the Nationals have given up. Today’s free local paper The Express (arguably the paper with the biggest circulation because it is thrown on everyone’s lawn whereas the PM News has a circulation of less than 10K) has no advertising for Drew and two full page ads for Oakeshott. On NBN TV last night there were no Drew ads but multiple 5sec spots for Oakeshott which were merely cards saying Oakeshott – Independent.
The Holiday Coast Pic(rap)torial didn’t disappoint. It had all the right wing editorial (propaganda) including our new gun toting world champion 15 year old girl on the cover.
It amazes me they keep throwing that thing on my lawn. I threw it back at the car delivering them one day when I just happened to be out in the garden. The biggest problem is I live on a corner block with the driveway facing on road and the letter box on the other, so I get two of the damn things every time. They can’t seem to work out its the same house.
They offered all the candidates editorial, but only conditionally if you took out a half page ad. I know the Greens told them to shove it. They have a reputation for editing other candidates editorial. Looks like everyone else bar Oakeshott took them up on the offer. He has his ad inside the cover on page 2, however, it looks like the HCP forgot his editorial. Oh Dear. maybe they will be kind enough to run it after the election.
The rest of the issue is virtually page after page of driveling suck up, bum kissing praise for Drew. Puke!
That should have read “The Pictorial has a reputation of editing other candidates editorial”
I remember well the aftermath of Oakeshott quitting the Nationals there were rumours that Oakeshott was close to then Liberal Leader Brouden. Apparently the Nationals threatened the Liberals that if Oakeshott defected to the Liberals in Port Macquarie that would be the end of the state coalition. Subsquently Brougden was found to be unstable and attempted suicide. If Oakeshott was influenced by this man it raises questions on his political acumen. Residents of Lyne deserve decent and asute representation the Country/Nationals have provided that since the seat was created in 1949 and we saw the last member become Deputy Prime-Minister what could Oakeshott possibly provide.
There would ahve been nothing wrong in Oakeshott quitting the Nationals and joining the Libs. There is no real difference between these two parties.
I personally think that the Nationals are mad to be in Coalition with a party of business because most traditional country people are rural socialists in the best sense of that term. In fact without government intervention and services ( the ’socialism’) the regions would be stuffed. In fact they already are due to the big business agenda of successive Coalition and ALP governments especially since the privatisations began in the mid 1980s era and continuing today.
Say NO to Privatisation. Vote DLP.
There would have been nothing wrong in Oakeshott quitting the Nationals and joining the Libs. There is no real difference between these two parties anyway.
I personally think that the Nationals are mad to be in Coalition with a party of business because most traditional country people are ‘rural socialists’ in the best sense of that term. In fact without government intervention and services ( the ’socialism’) the regions would be stuffed. In fact they already are due to the big business agenda of successive Coalition and ALP governments especially since the privatisations began in the mid 1980s era and continuing today.
Say NO to Privatisation. Vote DLP.
Mr Nash.. no actually, just Nash – “Mr” would confer some level of respect that clearly isn’t warranted here.
Let me get this piffle right- if the rumor you heard about Oakeshott’s friendship with Brogden was true, and that being friends with someone that suffered a particularly nasty bout of mental illness “raises questions” (talk about grubby horseshit – is this what you clowns are honestly reduced to?), then somehow the Residents of Lyne deserve better than this?
You’ll get all of the votes you deserve with that argument.
Enjoy your electoral pounding on Saturday.
The sheer cluelessness of someone pretending to have an interest in Lyne (an area with one of the highest suicide rates among adult males in the country) while simultaneously accusing anyone that has, not even a close, but merely a rumored closeness to a person with a mental illness as somehow lacking acumen, is simply astonishing.
Simply astonishing.
309, 310
Possum,
Hear hear! I totally agree with your sentiments.
My pictorial hasn’t arrived yet. I look forward to it each month but I am surprised they even took Oakeshott’s money – I guess that everyone has his price. I once had the job of writing the Labor party advetorial for the pre-election issue of the Pictorial ($1000 for a half page) The editor was quite good about it – I could write what ever I like provided I did not say anything against Mark Vaile – you can’t ask for fairer than that.
Mr Nash, it sounds as if you would know (and we are all friends here so you can share) have the Nationals stopped advertising in Lyne?
#307
mate were you involved in the Lindsay shite.from the tone of your ramble i suggest that you learn to evolve from the cesspit which you currently call home and get some form of treatment.
ps did the heiferman put you up to this;as this sort of faeces has his distinct odour.
I agree with Possums comments re “Nash”. The Coalition and State Labor policies of sweeping mental health under the carpet over the last decade haven’t helps a great deal.
Now, I recall some DLP nitpicking over Greens policies a while back. I can say confidently that the Greens share some common ground on many of the DLP policies however, I can see some BIG differences.
“Development of nuclear engineering and power generating capacity to promote conservation of non-renewable energy resources and to facilitate preparedness for “last resort” strategic defence contingencies.”
Can I ask the DLP where they stand on nuclear power in the Lyne electorate and storage and transport of nuclear weapons and waste from the fuel cycle? This is a BIG policy difference. Personally I’d feel safer sharing a house with an Intersex person.
Your policy on nuclear power and weapons goes strongly against the grain of another DLP policy
“Limits on the manufacture, distribution and use of products with known toxic, destructive or pollutant effects and greater public access to information needed to assess the “accident” potential from such products and the risks to public health.”
This one is good but doesn’t resolve too well with your nuclear policy as radio active waste is one of the most toxic substances. What is your policy on the storage of nuclear waste given its toxicity last hundred of thousands of years?
Are you aware that the Port Macquarie Hastings is a Nuclear Free Zone?
I could get into the gutter and respond to Nash comments by saying it is what you would expect from the typical nat, whose parents share the same set of grandparents.
I could but won’t.
Oh and this
“Honesty from public authorities as to the incidence of HIV-AIDS in Australia being overwhelmingly a homosexual disease and honest endeavours by Federal and State governments to inform and educate the community as to the primary cause for its spread – non-monogamous and promiscuous sexual practices.”
I’d like to see some statistics to back up this one. I agree with the second part of this, the primary cause, but does it matter that a disease affects one part of the community more than another. In other countries it is poor people who don;t have access to contraceptives either due to poor government policy or religeous reasons. Prostate cancer is overwhelmingly a male disease, what difference does that make? The only point of this policy is to blatantly discriminate against homosexuals. What does that achieve other than appeal to homophobia?
Nice way to alienate the electorate DLP
Again, DLP
“Development of nuclear engineering and power generating capabilities for peaceful purposes that facilitate future options for acquiring a nuclear deterrent capacity if international efforts to limit proliferation of nuclear weapons fail or the nuclear umbrella of our allies can no longer be guaranteed.”
So lets say we’re against proliferation, but just in case, lets keep it as an option for ourselves. Nice piece of hypocrisy there DLP.
No one wins a nuclear war.
What is your policy on depleted uranium weapons? Of which, thanks to the previous government, we now have a capability and have used them in joint training exercises in Shoalwater Bay Queensland already, sensitive habitat for threatened dugong and world heritage marine park.
DLP, your stance on Euthanasia may not go down so well in an aging electorate like Lyne:
“Enforcement of the criminal law with respect to procured abortions and euthanasia through the prosecution of medical professionals who violate human life.”
Due to the average age resulting from a large retiree population, a disproportionate number of people living in Lyne are facing the latter stages of their lives and would like to have some control over how and when they will take their final breath. This was one of the hottest topics at the Candidates Forum. You should have been their!
ODGE:
Cant be any worse than Bob Browns efforst to shut down our entire coal industry. Any solar system would require a base line power facilty to maintain supply.
The Extreme Greens have no answer…. Their only answer is to shut down everthing and Tax everything we consume, or use, what we eat right down to how many children we can have.
Yes the extreme green monster is attempting to change our life forever. We should all be concerned.
<a href =http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/03/26/1881503.htm<Never Happy
We are not living in the 1950’s and 1960s where these types of technologies were new. We now live in 2008 where we are working on technologies(in nuclear) that will exhaust the rod and leave no waste.
I think it would be irresponsible to not continue research in this area.
We’ve all had enough of the scare tactics employed by the extreme greens,
who will never be happy until everything is shut down.
Sustainable population (Population Control) and Gloal Governance are the principles behind this monster.
Lets hope the people in Lyne and Mayo send a message to this bunch of extremists that have the potential to change our lives forever.
Ziggy
Odge
I support life at every stage from conception to natural death.
I also oppose the death penalty.
And I oppose all killing, from the unborn, to those near the end of their lives. I oppose all wars, and the killing of any innocent civilians.
For our country I HAVE A DREAM,
that every individual from conception to natural death will have the full protection of the Law to live out their live in peace.
I dedicate myself to trying to ensure that this dream becomes a reality in this country.
I believe the best way to enable this to happen is to support the policies of the DLP, which are in accord with my views.
I encourage all Australians to do likewise
Odge
Re euthenasia, which is the ultimate in Elde Abuse.
Governments have to introduce laws to protect the most vunerable in our society from being abused by the more powerful.
Most people think that the incindent of abuse is rare in our society.
Unfortunately that is not the case.
I have had 4 years experience investigation elder abuse in a large regional area. In that time I was able to prove 60 cases of elder abuse.There was a similar amount of cases that i was unable to prove, or I was able to resolve in some other way.
The abuse involved, physical, emotional, and financial abuse, and neglect. By far the greatest number of cases was of financial abuse.
When elderly people become vunerable, and especially when they have substaintal assetts, and develop dementia, it is amazing how many ‘relatives’ suddenly become ‘ interested’ in them.
The level of financial abuse ranged from stealing their Pension, to stealing $140,000.
If euthenasia became legal I fear for the safety of these vunerable people who would be subject to enormous pressure from relatives who would benefit from their early demise.
There are people in our society who would use euthenasia to hasten the death of vunerable elderly people.
Laws have to be in place to protect them.
Euthenasia should be a crime in our society.
To kill any human being between conception and natual death, should be, and always remain, a crime in our society.
Nice attitude Ziggy. Sticks and Stones….
So, back to my question, do you sanction a nuclear power station on the Manning, Hastings or Macleay rivers??????
By your logic, nuclear, a “technology from the 50’s 60’s”, is better than utilising the limitless nuclear reactor in the sky, the Sun, the source of all energy on this planet that has the power to drive the wind and tides in conjunction with using electricity more efficiently than our current wasteful practices and stimulating jobs in new industries?
Your nuclear aspirations sounds a lot more EXTREME to me. But there you go.
Surely our renewable technology has come a lot further than its origins in parallel with nuclear technology in the 50’s and 60’s? Australia had been world leaders. We’re not stuck in some Apollo 13 time warp fellas. If renewables had the development funding that we use to subsidise the coal industry in 1 year (millions instead of hundred of thousands), we would certainly be a lot further down that road. China is investing more in installing renewables than we are per capita. Its a joke!
Any response to your blatant homophobic policies? Its not like homosexuality hasn’t been around since the dawn of time. Why do they deserve to be treated any less human than the rest of us? How many “family” men leave their wife and kids to hangout down at a local beach or park after dark with other men? Yes, for some family life is a thin veneer of reality. They are the ones you need to worry about. That is the dishonestly that affects families.
Greens extreme? No, I think your grasping at straws there. You are genuinely afraid because we are actually becoming more mainstream every day as people wake up the the solid policies we are pushing. Why else would the ALP and Conservatives pick them up as their own? Just look at Drew’s latest flyer. Its almost embarrassing.
See you at the polls. I’m going for 10% Green this time
I take it all back. Drew TV ads have reappeared
I also have my copy of the pictorial. Better than ever. Where did they get the editorial photo of Oakeshott? – he looks about 25 and in a very tired and emotional state.
Odge I thought you said all the candidates had taken out advetorials but the only ads I can see are 2 pages for Drew and half a page for Oakeshott.
ODGE:
No I wouldn’t.
Solar is not the answer. It can support another base power system and thats what we have to discuss.
ODGE says:”China is investing more in installing renewables than we are per capita. Its a joke!
As well as Nuclear stations and clean power coal as well.
Your right odge we’re not living in the 50′ or 60s so you’d be quite aware of the very new and safe methods available. We need to keep our eye on the ball on these techologies.
Look the greens have run very good scare campaigns. But can only come up with a tax. They rubbish clean coal, and to think that wind driven power can drive the needs of this country is laughable.
Heh look we’re not against renewables. If the nation could throw out this carbon trading/tax systems we would (as we’ve learnt from europe) save billions of dollars. Everyone agrees that the ETS will criple and change this country forever.
We need more research and more funding into the right areas and less talk of this ETS, which both sides of government agree will achieve nothing.
Yes Nobody denies that the greens are the most extreme party in Australia today. They reject everything, pass nothing through parliament and have policies that can only harm Australia.
Ziggy
France has no problem with nuclear power and neither should we in Australia in any electorate.
It is a non-issue made into an isse by the non-thinking Australian socialist Left and liberalists with perhaps too much affluence on their hands.
France is doing well by using nuclear for most of its energy needs.
A total non issue except for those who think that the greatest IQ levels are found on the ABC’s Q & A or on other biased inner city audience talk fests that pass for open debate on the ABC and SBS.
Thats better, rational discussion instead of heated emotional responses. Funny, I never mentioned an ETS. The current ETS proposals being discussed are a product of the ALP, and if they are just going to hand out exeptions to already heavily subsidised industries, I agree, there will be no point to it anyway.
The Greens have strong policies that are developed from the grass roots of the party. We have regular state delegates conferences where delegates bring the decisions made on issue from their local branch. It is very democratic. Policies can change as more information comes to light on a topic. You’d be surprised how many scientists, economists, farmers, doctors, lawyers and academics are involved at all levels of the Greens.
Midcoast, I said they offered all candidates free editorial, but only on the condition that the candidates took out paid half page ads. I agree about Oakeshott’s photo. Looks like he is worried the camera is going to bite him.
Clean Coal? Sounds good, but very early days technology wise. Despite the fan fair and ministering unveiling some new pipes on the side of the Munmorah coal fired power station, we still don’t have an operational demonstration plant and they’ve been working on this for close to 5 years. How much longer before we can definitely say it will work?
As far as the French and nuclear power, What are they doing with their old power plants when it comes time to decommission them? I don’t believe they have all the solutions yet either. Why do countries that use nuclear power have such difficulty with long term storage of waste? Because it is really nasty toxic stuff. Just shipping it around is extremely dangerous, there is even a global register of accident and incidents that includes a spill from a shipment on the Pacific Highway near the Camden Haven River some time ago, in the Lyne electorate, and I don’t need to remind you of the very real terrorist risk. Why do has the US not built a new reactor in nearly 50 years. Apart from China and a couple of dubious states, who is building new reactors. The new technologies that you speak of mostly remain on the drawing board, in theory, and un-proven. Apart from that, nuclear can only take us 40- 100 years before viable supplies are exhausted, it is energy intensive to mine and process, leaving us in the long term with even more problems.
If the sun can power the planet, why can it not provide for us. Sure, it is going to take some readjustment, but we’re pretty good at that. Look what we’ve achieved with CFC’s and the Ozone layer. I believe that is in your policies too.
Goanna,
I agree there is a lot of abuse out there regarding elderly people. But hasn’t your experience shown you that the current system is not working. People don’t just start or stop killing each other just because there is a change of law. Murder is murder. The idea is not to make murder easier, on the contrary, euthanasia legislation is aimed at making it safer and giving the power to the person who’s money and life it is before they loose control, not family, friends or nursing home administrators. Think of the aging population issues we are going to face over the next 30-50 years. Choice is going to be a very big issue and a blanket ban just isn’t going to cut it with the Baby Boomer Generation who are wealthier and more educated than any before them. Experienced people like yourselves will be required to ensure all the important safe guards ar in place and constantly monitored and re-evaluated. By your own admission, the system is already being abused, so lets work towards fixing it.
There’s an ABC feature on the Mayo and Lyne by-elections:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/04/2355321.htm?section=features
Odd… they seem to be assuming the Nationals will retain it, with Oakeshott just giving it a bit of a shake. Opposite to everything else I’ve heard about it…
Yes, it disagrees with the local ABC news service which predicts a strong oakeshott win (who is Hayden Manning)
Meanwhile torrential rain means the election is on the back burner to flood warnings.
midnorthcoast
Which minor party do you think will fair well ?
Jodie
I am sticking with my prediction of (based partly on state results and the poor choice of a nationals candidate): Oakeshott 65 Drew 18 Russell 8 fishing 4 (with a significant donkey component) that does not leave a lot left over.
Oakeshott must be glad he got out of that monkey house a couple of hundred km down the coast… it’s chaos over there!
MIDNORTHCOAST.
I can’t see oakeshott getting 65% and I think Drew will cetainly get more than 18%.
We’ll see how good you are I’ll say both oakeshott and Drew on 40% each and the rest will decide on preferences. A lot of oakeshott’s vote will go donkey.
Jodie
Lyne bi election will be decided on local issues despite efforts by the Nats to try to show concern about the Rudd government. These are the issues we have top consider with only two mgenuine candidates standing out in the field. Independent Oakshot has a proven record as local State member, he is running a conservative campaign based on this and his willingness to listen to the electorate with no malice for any of his opponents. Drew on the other hand enters the contest with huge amounts of baggage which the Nats seem to dismiss as not important. As mayor of Port Macquarie – Hastings Council Drew and his fellow councillors were dismissed for incompetance. While in office they were also responsible for encouraging the building of a Diesel Powered Power Station in the Camden Haven without any communnity consultation. A subsequent bitter fight was eventually won by the locals and the submission rejected by the Dept of Planning. To the disgust of the local community the Nats and Drew are trying to rewrite history and take the credit themselves. Drew is a very unpopular personality in the area at present and is basically running a smear campaign against Oakshot which is further angering the locals. My reading of the mood locally suggests a huge defeat for the Nationals.
AJ Dunlop
With tonights news indicating that the fuel will rise 20% and Electricity 40% under the proposed ETS Scheme, we should all step back and have a think.
What party is the only party that will do all in it can to stop this monster from being released onto the public.
A Tax that will serve no purpose. A Tax that will hit the poorest and reward the polluters.
What party is that….. The DLP thats who.
So the way I see it is the DLP is up againts a bunch of yes men you are all in agreeance that this tax should be introduced.
So think hard (These bi elections might be our last chance) and lets all get behind Michael O’Donohue of the Democratc Labor Party. (DLP)
Otherwise we will end up with this monster and only have ourselve to blame.
Ziggy
Prediction: Oakeshott win.
people need to get their facts in order before they make silly assumptions and judgements…
Zesta:
Maybe he will. Lets all hope not.
ziggy
Polls Closed.
VTR: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13827-130.htm
New thread.