ABC Radio reports Alan Carpenter will go to Government House this afternoon to call a Western Australian state election for September 6. More to follow: yet-to-be-revised Buswell-era seat-by-seat election guide here. Hat tip to Zombie Mao.
UPDATE: Rather than do any actual work, I am republishing below the bulk of a post from a few weeks ago which was soon superseded by the Westpoll post. Elsewhere: “analysts” rate the snap election decision a blunder; Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times offers a non-exhaustive list of “seats to watch”; audio from ABC state political editor Peter Kennedy and Curtin University academic David Black; analysis from Tony Barrass of The Australian. The Liberals are off to a good start: John McGrath has quit the front bench, after being contentiously retained by Troy Buswell when the Corruption and Crime Commission found he had been involved in dubious dealings with Brian Burke.
When surveying the electoral landscape, one factor asserts itself with a force that makes all the sniffed chairs, snapped bras, lifted shirts and exposed Prince Alberts pale into insignifiance: the “one-vote one-value” redistribution (that at least is how it’s been marketed, but that’s a subject for another time). Going by the post-redistribution pendulum, you would never know that Labor was currently one seat away from minority government (at least when taking into account the three ex-Labor independents, which the pendulum doesn’t do). This is because the notional margins determined by Antony Green suggest Labor would have won 38 seats rather than 32 if the 2005 election had been held on the new boundaries. In the crude terms of uniform swings, the Liberals will need 51.4 per cent of the two-party preferred vote to be in contention for minority government (for a swing of 3.6 per cent), and as much as 2 per cent extra if they’re to go all the way.
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Metropolitan
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Country
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| ALP | LNP | IND | Total | ALP | LNP | Total | ||
| 2005 Election | 24 | 8 | 2 | 34 | 8 | 15 | 23 | |
| Redistribution | 32 | 8 | 2 | 42 | 6 | 11 | 17 | |
The creation of eight new seats in the metropolitan area was always going to be good news for Labor, which holds 70 per cent of its seats. Even so, it seems remarkable that all eight have found their way to the Labor column. The Liberals do have the marginal new seat of Scarborough, but elsewhere they lose Serpentine-Jarrahdale as part of an unhelpful carve-up of the outer suburbs. An appreciation of the situation can be gained by breaking the area into six pieces: two zones of Labor and one of Liberal heartland, and three where the election will be decided. These are outlined in the map below (indicated by the black lines: the blue ones are upper house region boundaries), with electorates colour-coded to indicate party margins (ranging in Labor’s case from lightest red for under 2.5 per cent to deep red for over 15 per cent).
Inland outskirts. The luck of the draw has turned two Labor and two Liberal seats into three Labor and one Liberal, but all could go either way. Liberal-held Serpentine-Jarrahdale has been divided among four notionally Labor seats, while Darling Range is mixed with abolished Kenwick in a manner that produces one highly marginal seat (Kalamunda) and one that is relatively safe for Labor (Forrestfield). The new seat of Darling Range owes more to Serpentine-Jarrahdale than the old Darling Range, emerging with a slight notional Labor margin.
Riverside and northern beaches. The all-blue strip along the western beaches now accounts for five Liberal seats instead of four, although Labor would win Scarborough in a good year. The riverside seats of Nedlands, Alfred Cove, South Perth and Bateman (formerly Murdoch) have all maintained their identity. Three of the nine seats in the riverside and northern beaches region are held by conservative independents.
Northern mortgage belt. Further north is the volatile mortgage belt, where the new coastal seat of Ocean Reef has muscled in among four existing electorates. All are Labor or notionally so (Kingsley has been left white on the map as it is a statistical dead heat), but most if not all are likely to shift with the next change of government – as the northern suburbs did in 1983, 1993 and 2001.
Eastern suburbs. The really good news for Labor is that there are now 15 seats in its inner suburban heartland from Girrawheen east to Midland and south to Armadale, including the new seats of Nollamara, West Swan, Cannington and Gosnells. The only cost for them is that safe-ish Yokine (margin of 8.2 per cent) has turned into marginal-ish Mount Lawley (5.8 per cent).
Southern coastal. This safe Labor strip is now accommodated by six seats instead of five, with Kwinana created from the south of Cockburn and the north of Peel (the remainder of which is now called Warnbro).
South-eastern. Southern River and Riverton are joined by Jandakot: all are Labor marginals, the margin in Southern River having been cut from 11.8 per cent to 5.1 per cent.
Then there are the cutbacks in the country, which owing to the “large district allowance” have impacted on conservative areas in the south-west (like I said, a subject for another time). The exception is the effective abolition of the vast Mining and Pastoral region seat of Murchison-Eyre (held by Labor-turned-independent John Bowler) and its replacement with Eyre, which more closely resembles the abolished Liberal-held seat of Roe as it includes Esperance and Ravensthorpe. This has involved the transfer of Esperance and Ravensthorpe from the Agricultural upper house region to Mining and Pastoral, cutting Agricultural’s enrolment from 93,886 to 82,479. Thus truncated, the Agricultural region now has four lower house seats in place of seven. As well as the disappearance of Roe, Liberal-held Moore has essentially absorbed Nationals-held Greenough, while the two Nationals seats of Merredin and Avon have merged into Central Wheatbelt.
The South West region has gone from 11 seats to eight, which can roughly be explained as Leschenault being absorbed by Murray (now Murray-Wellington), Capel being absorbed by Vasse and Collie-Wellington (now Collie-Preston), and Liberal-held Warren-Blackwood merging with Nationals-held Stirling to form Blackwood-Stirling. The remaining development to be noted is the expansion of Bunbury, Albany and Geraldton, each of which has shifted from one party column to the other. Bunbury is the largest of the three cities, such that the Liberal-held seat has been able to expand into Labor-voting southern suburbs which were previously accommodated by Capel. Albany and Geraldton on the other hand are Labor-held seats which have had to expand into surrounding conservative rural territory. However, this does not mean they are going to fall into the Liberals’ lap: Labor’s past lack of campaigning effort in the rural areas means they are stronger here than the margins suggest.
278 Comments
Best ABC PM line ever:
“Well, it has taken a while, but being labelled as a seat sniffer has proved to be sure political death.”
I’m guessing Carpenter by 10 seats.
I think Carpenter will win too but Buswell isn’t leader now.
Like the NT election this is going to be a short campaign.
That’s what everyone seems to be saying Gary, but isn’t 30 days about normal?
Yep, and Barnett hasn’t even decided on his Shadow Cabinet, meaning they’ll have no time to raise issues or polices.
VERY smart move
The Liberal Party ‘Endorsed Candidates’ page seems to be down at the moment as well. I would say it’s going to be undergoing some serious editing during the next 10 days.
Might this not have the potential to backfire on Carpenter? It looks pretty opportunistic.
Yes JB
it is a gamble
Smart move by Carps.
The Lib will not have time to organise themselves.
- a nip in the bud for the Lib.
and it will finish off Barnett once and for all.
- no win means no full term in office and retirement.
“Might this not have the potential to backfire on Carpenter? It looks pretty opportunistic.”
Do you really think people vote against a government because they go a few months ahead of time? I guess it could happen if the alternative was something to vote for but I doubt it in this case.
William, I see your point but isn’t 30 days the minimum requirement?
Totally agree, The ALP probably have the ads ready for airing tonight, plus during the Olympics there will be ALP ads in every break as according to a post in the old thread, the ALP had booked ads to run from August 1st
Pardon my ignorance, but after the redistributions, what are the state of the parties at the moment?
WA Today story quoting Colin Barnett.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/premier-alan-carpenter-to-call-wa-state-election-20080807-3rib.html
The first two weeks of the campaign will be silenced by the Olympics.
The new-look Opposition will barely have a chance to be seen.
Very smart move by carpenter.
I’d be surprised if the move backfires, though the ALP would probably lose a few seats whenever the electionw as held. Though it’s not unprecedented, it’s extremely rare for any leader, anywhere, to call an early election and then lose it (Des Corcoran, this is your life!). If Labor’s polling was showing any real risk of losing the election, Carpenter wouldn’t call it now. He’d need more air-time to get his message heard and air a few new policies.
With NT and WA now going to the polls, it looks likely that the amazing run of Labor election wins will continue.
Will Barnett be inviting Brendan Nelson to campaign for him?
Very good move by Carpenter, although I can’t help but wonder: Is he rueing not calling it last week?? If he did, the Libs would probably have been locked in with Buswell.
But Buswell will be oin the front bench as shadow Treasurer – can you imagine all the puns about sniffing money etc ?
Can quokkas vote?
oh no!… not the quokkas again
EXISTING (NOTIONAL):
LOWER HOUSE
ALP 29 (39)
Lib 15 (15)
NP 5 (3)
Greens 0 (0)
Ind 8 (2)
And here are the current Liberal Party Policies .
http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=63&Itemid=117
So the Coalition needs to win at least 10 seats to win government (with the help of independents).
In a House of only 59, I just don’t see that happening immediately after a leadership handover…
Actually it’s 15, but there is NO coalition this time.
I should point out that only two of those eight independents were elected that way: the actual election result in 2005 was ALP 32, LIB 18, NAT 5, IND 2. Although that’s ancient history of course due to the redistribution.
Opening odds on the election from Centrebet:
Labor $1.18
Coalition $4.25
hmmm… 18% return in 30 days… thats gotta worth a punt
What Antonio said.
This campaign is only going to be 12 days long, starting after the Closing Ceremony on the 24th.
I don’t think the Opposition is going to get much air-time over the next 16 days.
I wouldn’t be surprised if people don’t realise there is an election coming until about a week out (although this might not be unusual).
Here is the Liberal Party Candidates page.
http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=151&Itemid=56
And note they have no candidate for Morley – I wonder if they wil do a deal on Preferences with John D’Orazio ?
Thanks William that’s why I say there are only 2 notional independents although I reckon Walker (Nedlands) and Bowler (Kalgoorlie) have a very good chance of re-election joining Constable (Churchlands) and Woollard (Alfred Cove) who should have no trouble
“it’s extremely rare for any leader, anywhere, to call an early election and then lose it”
Jeff Kennett, at least six months early, 1999.
It looks as though Carpenter didn’t warn his own head office:
http://www.wa.alp.org.au/news/
No doubt the website is ready to go live as soon as he visits the Governor
Nice of him to call an election on my birthday
But there were extenuating circumstances, such as the collapse of the Pyramid Bank etc.
No such issues here.
So are all West Australians going to be ‘Glued’ to the Olympics????? I doubt it very much! I can think of 10-20% of the electorate who wont be influenced by Chinese propaganda!!!!!
The demographic that decides elections will be much more interested in the Limpix than in the elections.
The Premier will go to Government house within the next hour
What a big mistake. The public will not be happy with this completely political decision to go early. Bye Bye Carps.
And John McGrath resigns from the Liberal Front Bench.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/mcgrath-quits-liberal-front-bench-20080807-3rj6.html
And Political Analysts claim Carpenter has made a “Strategic Blunder” calling it early.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/early-election-call-a-strategic-blunder-analysts-20080807-3rjs.html
This will be a Drover’s Dog election for Barnett. Like what Hawke pulled on Fraser.
Slight difference, Hawke had no baggage, Barnett has his Canal.
“Policy analysts” – pish. In a week all this will be forgotten. The iron law of elections is “go when you’re ahead.” Ask Gordon Brown.
Seats to Watch, according to Perth Now.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24142075-5008620,00.html
Sorry Frankie Bolognaise, The WA Labor Govt is corrupt and out of touch. Carps is a dead man walking.
http://www.thewest.com.au/PollResults.aspx
Ha, and you base it on a Westpoll which is an Absolute Joke,
Enough Said.
Correction, an ONLINE poll which can be easily manipulated.
You, and the libs have NO crediability whatsoever.
You sound worried Frankie Bolognaise? Just like Carps is worried about Canal. Well you should be. Wait until Canal rolls out The Man of Steel to help him. West Australian’s love the Man of Steel.
Snoop, we’ll see. Let’s hope there are polls with more than 400 people being surveyed.
Anyone can make barracking statements.
No, The Libs are a shambles, they haven’t endorsed all their candidates yet, nor have they decided on a Shadow Cabinet, which includes Troy Buswell – talk about rewearding micreants, at least Carpenter either sacked, or made them force to resign when they got caught out.
Oh and name calling doesn’t help your cause either.
Only cowards resort to childish name calling.
Gary Hunt is a prime example.
That is the good thinkg about Carps calling the election now. The Liberals have the O/Games Coverage to sort themselves out. Elections are always decided in the last week. Silly move Al.
Moose, please call Frank by his name.
Labor very short at 1.2 with Lasserters.(betting to 107%)
This site usually lists a range of betting shops. Only one today for the WA election, the others are probably re-setting their markets.
http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/20929/20930/44843/West+Australian+State+Election
These are the markets for Lib Leader at next election, Costello favourite at 1.8 Turnbull 2.2 Nelson 3.5.
They are betting to 147%, which is very fat.
http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/20967/20968/44979/Liberal+Party+Leader+at+the+Next+Federal+Election
Perhaps William could make a rule at the outset that he will delete posts which are mere partisan barracking, eg “My side will win coz your side are grubs, nyah, nyah.”
The odd thing is that those analysts say that Carpenter has called the election before Barnett can settle in but yet it is a bad move. I would have thought it is a smart move. Why let your opponent settle in?
Ok William Bowe. I know you are just waiting to ban me for offensive behavior as conservatives are not welcome at Pollbludger.
56 Moose – that’s unfair Snoop. It’s your attitude not your politics that gets you into trouble.
Precisely, plus the fact that the ALP has TV ads already booked in means that will run from tonight, while the Libs will have to shoot new ads with Colin Barnett, which won’t be ready for at least 48 hours.
So you are saying that this is not a far left wing blogging site?
That should read “that they will be run from tonight”.
Unfortunately Adam, “nyah nyah” is in the eye of the beholder. John McGrath’s resignation is good news for the Liberals: his presence loomed as a big obstacle to their campaign on the Brian Burke issue.
59 Moose – I don’t recall saying that. I’ll say it again it’s your ATTITUDE not your POLITICS that gets you into trouble. There are conservative supporters who blog here and they’re not banned by William.
No more trolling please, Moose.
Well as long as it does not both you that I have a signed photo of John Howard on my office wall.
OK William Bowe but what is trolling?
Peter Kennedy on the Election Announcement.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200808/r279628_1185396.asx
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)
Read and Learn
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyah
Yes, but there is still the issue of Troy Buswell meeting with Noel Chrichton-Browne in the Parliamentry Carpark to deal with.
Thanks Frank for that link. Now there is an analyst/journalist that knows what he is talking about.
As you can see Adam, utopian socialism hasn’t yet fallen out of favour here.
Yep, Peter Kennedy is one of the most astute observers of West Australian Politics. In regards to Peter Van Onsrlen, it’s pretty much well known that he was a former staffer for a WA Liberal Senator, so he’s a bit clouded in his judgement
David Black & Dr Harry Phillips are pretty much straight down the line, though I’m surprised by their comments.
http://www.mwf.com.au/2007/content/standard.asp?name=OnselenP
Arrgh, that should be Peter Van Onselen
I’m reading Peter VO’s new book now. Dull and obvious. I could have written it without getting out of bed.
Lot of talk today about how clever this move is. Yes, the Olympics will gobble up media oxygen, but I’m not so sure it is actually all that clever. Most swinging voters make up their mind in the last 10 days of a campaign anyway, so the Libs will still have their advertising plus a campaign launch and debate performance ready by then.
As for not leting Barnett settle in, thats only a problem for unfamiliar leaders. Barnett has been Opposition Leader for four years, and was a miniser four 8 befor that, so I think the public is comfortable with him, and feels that he is at least a known quantity.
Finally, Barnett has been bagged as hopeless by some on this site, but his perfomance against a first-term Labor Government in ‘05 was by far the best of any Liberal Opposition in the same situation since ‘95. Compare Carr, Rann, Martin, Beattie and Brack’s re-election returns to Gallop’s.
The ad campaign writes itself for the Libs, with footage of Burkie and Labor ministers emerging from the CCC, interspersed with newspaper clippings, WA Inc references and foreboding voiceovers. I predict a tagline like “Labor – Don’t Let it Happen Again” or “Vote LIberal – WA Deserves Better”.
Carpenter is not particularly popular, and Labor hasn’t acheive sod-all in their 2 terms so far. Add to that a tanking housing market whihc the Libs could easily (politically) tie to Ripper’s stamp duty policies, and I think this one will be very, very close.
Since this is a WA thread, I have to get in a reference to my favourite Australian placename, Useless Loop.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useless_Loop
William should institute the Useless Loop Award for the candidate who does or says the dumbest thing in the course of the campaign. Any early nominations?
Audio of David Black explaining why the Premier has called an early election.
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audio/audio/200808/20080807-david-black.mp3
This journalist has a bob each way.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24142519-5013404,00.html
They have or they haven’t achieved sod-all, L? Make up your mind.
William Bowe, can we please have a definition of “trolling”? Or is it politically incorrect to have to define a term of abuse that you are hurling at someone who disagrres with you?
They haven’t acheived anything at all…what would make you think I’m fence-sitting on that one?
Let me be clear – this has been a government of very little policy direction.
Please refer to the link I posted in post 67
Dull and obvious? It’s nauseating. I picked it off the shelf in a book shop and had to restrain myself from committing criminal damage. Why are all books about liberal PMs such deluded hagiography. I’d read a decent book about Howard–he was a significant figure in our history, for better or worse.
I did not ask you Frankie Pepperoni
L, you wrote “Labor hasn’t achieved sod-all”. Sod-all means nothing, so you wrote “Labor hasn’t achieved nothing,” which is to say that have achieved something. What you meant to write was “Labor has achieved sod-all.”
Dinsdale, that’s his earlier book. I am refering to his election book.
Adam Carr–our very own Oscar Wilde
Incidentally, PVO is no Liberal hack…if you don’t like his writing that’s one thing, but considering the mauling he gave Barnett last State electio I doubt he’s some sot of right-wing plant.
Ahh, resorting to abuse, when specifically requested by William to cease doing so.
As I said, the mark of a coward.
Thank you Mr Carr…I is considerably inarticulate, ain’t I, when I posts in a hurry.
So L you’d put your house on Barnett winning?
Gary,
To quote myself, “…I think this one will be very, very close.” So, no, I won’t be putting the house on anything, except Jim Furyl to win the US PGA.
But Barnett has a very, very good chance.
I miss Glen…this Moose person is not up to the job. Longing for those irascible outbursts in German.
Wo ist Wenck?
Dinsdale, I bow in reverence at the mention of the Great One, whose shrines I have visited.
http://adam-carr.net/mainphotofolder/london/PICT0614.JPG
I think citing a online opinion poll with no merit should be a banable offence on this site… seriously its a site about polling.. THINK.
Uncanny likeness, Dr Carr
Trolling is when a freedom-loving patriot comes to a far left-wing blogging site in order to start arguments, or vice-versa. For future reference, the one hard-and-fast rule around here is that quarreling about moderation is not permitted. I don’t guarantee more than one warning on this.
That should be, Furyk…
“I think this one will be very, very close” – L. What’s this based on other than a love for Barnett and his crew?
Moose @ 84: okay, you’ve got what you wanted now. Bye.
I once tried to edit the Wikipedia page on Oscar Wilde. I tried to add a short story attributed to him that I entitled “Sticky the stick insect gets stuck on a sticky bun.” It was live on the web for about 20 seconds until a wiki-fascist sent me a terse message stating I would be banned. According to this 3 star general, Wikipedia is serious research tool. I used to tell my students the opposite.
Dinsdale, you’re too kind.
LOL @ Gary #99
I’ve got an ALP membership card that would seem to belie any ‘love’ for Barnett, although I do lay out some concerns I have re the current Labor Govt at #75.
Disagree if you like, but I’m hardly engaging in partisan assertion without reasoning.
Frank Calabrese
“moose” … a large furry quadraped, most noted for standing in the cold water, chewing its cud, sporting a whopping great set of antlers.
it appears you have been targetted … be warned …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4s4wejeyS0
One would still expect a swing to the Libs in this election, but it may not translate into seats won, givent he redistribution.
There are signs the mining boom is slowing down, but the problems of labour shortages and expensive housing are still there. I think it’s smart of Carpenter to go to the polls now, and it may lessen the swing he was likely to get against him (unless Buswell had remained leader).
Adam in Canberra – I do like Useless Loop as a place name. My favourite, here in victoria, is Pakenham Upper. Mount Buggery is worth amention too.
In Victoria we also have Tittybong, Upotipotpon and Dondangadale.
Do you know how Useless Loop got its name? It got its name at exactly the same moment that Shark Bay was discovered not to be an inland saltwater lake that a person could walk around.
103 L – fair enough but my question still stands. What’s wrong with the WA government in your opinion?
True story
L,
The fact that Barnett did better in 2005 against Carpenter than other Liberal opposition leaders did against Labor premiers in their first term ignores the clear fact that before the canal debacle, the Coalition were considered firm favourites to win in WA.
After all, the 2005 election took place soon after the Latham implosion and after the post-tsunami bounce for Howard. The Carpenter regime was just as “ineffectual” in its first term as it was in its second.
If Barnett couldn’t seal the deal in 2005 when he had a much stronger base to work from, it’s far from likely that he’s going to win in 2008, particularly given the current situation of the WA Coalition/Liberal party AND the unfavourable redistribution for the Coalition…
Carpenter wasn’t Premier in 2005, it was Gallop
Adam I think you’ll find “Dondangadale” is actually “Dandongadale” unless there is another place with a similar name. I ‘ve been to Dandongadale, not that any of this matters.
#106
I’ll pass that on to the folks at Nar Nar Goon and Koo-Wee-Rup.
“Mount Buggery is worth a mention too.” So you can go to Buggery?
Gary,
Without rehashing my post at #75, I think the Govt has several problems, some political and some policy-related. The last four years have been overall a net negative for Labor in my opinion….
The so-called “truth-in-sentencing” laws have been a political disaster, and the Libs are sure to exploit that. Carpenter admitted as much by promising to re-write them last week. Health has been badly managed, and most major stakeholders are offside with the Minister on the subject of health reform (although I doubt this will be a major issue, in all honesty). Outcomes-based education managed to damage the government in the education area, and while McGowan has now shelved it it certainly tainted Labor in an area of traditional strength.
There is, of course, the rich seam of political gold that is the CCC and its findings – do not underestimate the WA public’s instinctive loathing of the Burke name anywhere near government. For any half-competent political operative the negative campaign is an easy one to run.
But most importantly perhaps – can you name one significant acheivement that Carpenter’s government can claim as their own in the last two years? When the negative fur starts to fly, you need some positve results to fall back on, and I’m not sure that they are there.
Gary, you are right. But have you been to Burrumbuttock?
Swing Lowe,
WA is not a Labor state – at state and federal level they have consistently struggled to get a primary vote above 40%. One vote one value simply makes it slightly easier – it does not gerrymander WA in favour of the ALP. Lose on the 2PP and you will still lose.
And I don;t follow your reasoning….if Barnett would have won in ‘05 without the canal, why won’t he win this time, sans that particular policy?
For those who like it straight my Kimberley Community Cabinet video series from April this year may be informative. I reckon it captures Carpenter pretty much as he is.
Gary/Swing Lowe,
I forgot to mention – and how could I – various ministers propositioning staff, drunkenly acting up and accusations of Carpenter himself perving on young female MPs.
It all just chips away.
The Perth to Mandurah Railway
Libs won’t dare mention that, considering they’ve got Troy Buswell
L, obviously you are a Western Australian, I’ve been more fortunate and have been born in and live in Victoria (LOL). So whereas I could tell you what the Brumby government has done I can’t give you anything on Carpenter, hence my questions to you.
Now that I know where you are coming from I’m very interested in your obviously more informed and less biased (than most) view of things.
Don’t you think the Libs will struggle given the less than perfect start though? Wasn’t Barnett favoured to win the 2005 election but lost? People will only vote in an opposition if they feel they can handle government. Surely that is not the feeling over there at the moment.
Am I correct in thinking the Libs need about a 6% swing to win Govt? Is this likely?
This is a state where people have been happy to vote for Burke, Grill, Crichton-Browne, Tuckey, Campbell and Lightfoot. Obviously WA has a high grub-threshold. Carpenter looks like Mother Theresa by contrast.
No Adam but Burrumbuttock sounds like the a…..end of the world.
L,
The point of my last post wasn’t to show how great Labor is doing in WA (it isn’t) – it’s just that Barnett is a loser/idiot. He was granted an opportunity to be the first Liberal to defeat an incumbent Labor government since Borbidge did it in 1996 – and he (single-handedly) managed to stuff it up.
Now he’s supposed to take the Liberals from an even worse position – the redistribution having weakened the Coalition in several seats that it could otherwise have won – and gain 10+ seats out of a 59 seat parliament to win government 2 days after becoming the Opposition leader.
Call me a true believer, but I seriously doubt that a man of Barnett’s abilities (and I mean that in a negative sense given the 2005 fiasco) could accomplish such a feat in less than 30 days…
Adam, at first I thought you meant Ian Campbell.
121 Frank – good point. If the Libs want to get down and dirty it will come back in spades. From what I’ve read Carpenter handled the Burke issue well didn’t he?
Plus the fact that the Liberals don’t have the Nationals to give them a leg up with being in a coalition.
Yep, sacked ministers, and forced them like Norm Marlborough to resign from both Parliament and the Party, and of course Labor won the Peel By-election at the the height of the CCC inquiry with an increased majority.
He also forced both Burke and Julian Grill to quit the Party as well. And it’s a bit rich for the Libs to attack the ALP about Burke when Noel Chrichton-Browne actually works for Brian Burke, and is still a Powerbroker for the Libs.
Frank,
Maybe, but it blew out in cost, hasn’t helped congestion on the freeway and recalls to mind the worst of the CFMEU. Not exactly an unqualified success.
Swing Lowe,
Fair point, but I don;t think Barnett was all that bad in ‘05. I think he passes the credibility test as Premier, and given that election Oz are usually about who the voters hate least, Carpenter and his Government might have passed Barnett in the loathing stakes.
Incidentally, the Libs may have been favoured in ‘05, but I must confess to never buying that. It was simply a Federal hangover from Latham and Co, plus a bit of media noise. Gallop was a good thing from the get-go, I contend.
Gary,
I’m really no expert (and I was born in Mebourne myself
) but yes, the Libs will by no means have a rails run here. The start, the turmoil over their last 12 months – and 4 years for that matter – and the economic good times al give them a sizable task.
People generally vote against governments, not for oppositions, and they do that when they feel the Oppostion can handle the job. Now, Barnett, clearly can handle the job (much as I would detest his policy directions). And the Government has given the electorate a good many reasons to vote against it. The question is, in what proportions are those feelings held?
That’s because people are so hung up on their cars.
And people vote, Frank.
More to the point, based on the notional seats, Labor needs to lose 9 seats just to lose their majority.
Plus one of those seats could be lost to John D’Orazio, whose supporters would expect him to support a minority ALP government. So that’s ten seats that need to be lost even before Carps starts horse-trading with Janet Woollard and maybe even Brendon Grylls, leader of the Nationals. The Nationals are actually decent chaps in WA.
Nats voters would never wear a coalition with the ALP. Their MPs might be alright, but their voters would revolt and just vote Liberal the next time round, putting the Country Party out of business sharpish.
And you wouldn’t horse trade with Woolard….damn near certifiable. And a pathological Labor hater.
L–this is all well and good, but where are the seats that are going to fall? It isn’t just a matter of votes–there are 59 elections that are going to occur. Assuming the Libs can do a deal with Constable and (holding their noses0 the Nats, they will need to hold 27 seats in the next parliament. Which ones?
ok. make it 26 with woollard in the libs’ column. which ones
L -”People generally vote against governments, not for oppositions” – I agree with this statement but only if they think the opposition are worthy. Iemma is a case in point last election.
“The question is, in what proportions are those feelings held?” Fair enough and we can only wait for polling to come out to assess this.
On a good day I can see the Libs winning from the ALP: Kalamunda, Kingsley, Swan Hills.
Albany and Geraldton are notionally Liberal already, so they’re gone, in my mind. Sorry Shane.
Desperate move by a government in trouble, in my humble opinion.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor lost this one.
Why on earth didn’t they sit tight for a little while longer? The Libs are fractured and the longer time they had to disentegrate, the better.
Instead, calling this will give the Libs and ALP equal airtime for the next month and force the government to defend their very unimpressive record.
Bizzare stuff.
L,
To show you how incompetent Barnett was in 2005, in the Newspoll immediately before the election was called, the Coalition was up 49-34 on primaries.
Somehow, by election day, the primaries had changed so much that Labor was up on primaries 42-39. It takes great “skill” to turn a 15 point lead on primaries into a 3 point less in a matter of weeks – a “skill” that only Barnett and few other political leaders have managed to do (the most recent I can remember is Sen. George Allen (R – Virginia) who managed to turn a 20 point lead into a 2 point deficit in 2 weeks in 2006)…
“Why on earth didn’t they sit tight for a little while longer? The Libs are fractured and the longer time they had to disentegrate, the better.”
I’m not so sure about that A-C. They may have been better off than they are now in a few months time, knowing the election was coming and all.
Beg pardon, I meant Darling Range, Kalamunda is notionally Liberal.
On the other hand, the ALP could potentially win Kalamunda, Dawesville and Scarborough and make things interesting in Vasse if they chose not to run a candidate. Wouldn’t mind if we gave Rob “what’s all this then” Johnson a scare in Hillarys, but I don’t think so–not now Buswell is gone.
Hmm, Minor Parties will Benefit from the Election.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/minor-parties-could-be-the-big-winners-20080807-3rk5.html
Ok…as a Labor partisan, I hold concerns for:
– Forrestfield (new seat)
– Ocean Reef
– Wanneroo
– Joondalup
– Kingsley (notionally dead even)
– Collie-Wellington (lot of suppressed anti-Labor feeling up there)
– Albany (ALP just fell over with Green preferences last time)
– Swan Hills (will the retiring ALP member dump a bucket on the Party like she did to Carps re his alleged sexual harassment?)
– Jandakot (local candidate issues)
and I don’t know enough about Darling Range or Bunbury to call them either way.
Tony McRae should be fine in Riverton…so, the Libs/Nats have 21 seats now (notionally) and need 6 of those seast I listed. IO reckon 4 are in grave danger. That doesn;t leave a lot of fat for the ALP.
According to Seven News, The Premier has been to the Governor, and will be holding a Press Conference in an Hour’s Time.
William. I nominate you for sainthood. When I thoght you had “noosed the Moose” 2 days ago you let him have a say again only for him to shoot himself in the head again!!!
As Mr T says “Ahhi piddy tha ffoool”
Not sure why you’re so sanguine about Riverton, L.
Sportingbet’s WA Election markets are up:
Labor: $1.18
Coalition: $4.40
Hm, can the reports be handed doiwn while the Govt is in Caretaker Mode ?
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24142067-948,00.html
L,
From my count, the LNP have 19 seats, the ALP have 38 and Ind 2.
So the LNP need 9 seats to be able to govern with the Independents, 11 if they want to govern by themselves.
Your list only contains 9 “vulnerable” Labor seats – I doubt that the LNP will sweep the field and take them all…
Frank C @ 150,
Even if the reports aren’t handed down officially, it’s likely that there will be judicious leaking to “friendly” media organisations if there is anything juicy in the reports…
List of WA Labor Candidates here.
http://www.wa.alp.org.au/download/now/candidate_list.pdf
Swing,
You’re forgetting the Nats, who will line up with the Coalition when it matters.
William,
Given what McRae survived last time, I doubt that he can be moved this time. I think Jandakot, Swan Hills and Forresfield are far more rickety.
One more thing – if the northern belt goes against Labor, Mindarie is gone too.
The report on the ABC’s PM began: “It was Napoleon who said ‘never interrupt your enemy while he’s making a mistake”. This was apparently meant to refer to the leadership change. Strange call.
Apologies, Swing, counted the 2 conservative independents as Libs.
Hmm, Colin Hints that the Canal will be the Centrepiece of the Campaign.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/07/2327070.htm
Re Frank at 150, basically a report can be provided to Parliament through a Clerk if Parliament is not sitting – but this isn’t “not sitting” it is dissolved.
Complex constitutional question but ultimately I think probably is wrong and contrary to spirit, if not letter, of the Caretaker Conventions
Well Residents of Ellenbrook weren’t impressed by Frank Alban’s suggestion that “They should pay for their own Parks & Gardens, Rather than the City Of Swan”
For our Eastern States Bludgers here is a Timeline of events since the 2005 Election.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/major-events-since-2005-state-election-20080807-3rmo.html?page=-1
Adam:
Why go all the way to Useless Loop, when in Perth we have Innaloo, Upper Swan and Cockburn (the suburb that dares not speak its name – the ‘ck’ is silent).
Liberal partisans might recall that the 1947 Labor defeat in WA, largely unexpected, was the first notable setback for the Chifley govt.Difficult to judge from here but wouldn’t voters regard Barnett as solid?
Hm, The OO have posted the last WA Bewspoll, and note the format – a facsimile of the actual page as published in the dead tree verison back on June 27th
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/wanewspoll.pdf
What’s happened to Kim Chance? Was he eaten by a scandal while I was away, or is he retiring?
According to the Candidate’s list, he’s not there, so he is retiring.
http://fw.farmonline.com.au/news/state/agribusiness-and-general/political/chance-announces-date-of-retirement/771787.aspx
Wiliam @ 156. I found the quote strange as well, however, without wanting to lurch into another ‘exercise in futility’ discussion of reporting by the ABC, I find much of what and how political matters are reported, at our ABC puzzling at times. A further example being the fate of the lower Murray Darling. I’d be inclined to think that the complexity and novelty of the issues being discussed contribute to how things are reported, but then there’s the Napoleon quote, which just makes you thing WT….?
Election “Factbox”
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-poll-factbox-20080807-3roz.html?page=-1
Story on the Four Marginals which Robert Taylor DIDN’T Mention.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24142595-5017005,00.html
#162
Upper Swan?
In Victoria, we’d rather Mount Buffalo.
(sorry about lowering the tone…it was thinking of troy Buswell that made me do it)
Another interesting factor with an early September election is that it may well coincide with huge speculation of the RBA cutting interest rates by up to half a percent which is more likely to advantage the Government than opposition parties.
In reply to post 145, I think the seat of Riverton is not a safe bet for the ALP. Sitting member Tony McRae’s reputation was severely tarnished after he was dropped from cabinet after his secret links with Mr Burke were revealed.
In 2005, the how-to-vote card controversy in Riverton probably helped Tony McRae get over the line (although there was still a swing against him) and back in 2001 he was merely in the right place at the right time to gain the seat for the first time for the ALP when Liberal Graeme Kierath was voted out in a landslide after his controversial stint as Industrial Relations minister (and a strong union campaign against him in the seat).
I think Riverton is naturally a fairly safe Liberal seat and with swing to the opposition and a decent Liberal local candidate in Riverton it should return to the Liberal column.
The rates tracker:
http://www.sfe.com.au/content/sfe/products/trt/targetratetracker.htm
Henderson & Carpenter, the would be Mugabes of Australian politics. With elections now only every 4 years, surely they could allow people a decent choice. Henderson went a year early for absolutely no reason and allowed 17 days with two electorates having their choice abolished altogether. Now Carpenter goes one better and effectively allows just two, using the olympics to avoid scrutiny. If they were in Africa, who knows what they’d try…
Whatever.
“If they were in Africa, who knows what they’d try…”
Buffalo steak and Springbok burgers most likely.
173 Peter K – I want what you’re on.
I’m waiting for Rob Johnston to be reappointed Shadow Police & Justice Spokesperson – be prepared for some weird solutions to Law & Order :_)
Get over it Peter, they’re only provincial politicians doing the usual petty political manoeuvrings. If the voters want to throw them out, they are free to do so (unlike in Zimbabwe).
Tonight’s 7 Perth News Coverage, which includes a live cross to Colin Barnett – note the rolling of his eyes when they show the two shot
http://au.news.yahoo.com/video/-/wa#embedded-video-top
Ahh, dammit. Now I have to go and get my details changed at the AEC… then again, maybe I won’t bother. They think I’m still living in Armadale, so I’ll give McTiernan some love for the railway instead of re-electing Eric Ripper with my Greens preferences.
My view on the election: this is the state which gave the Liberals two shiny new federal seats while they got a good old-fashioned thumping over east, and they’ve got rid of Buswell, so it won’t be a whitewash. Barnett seems like a bit of a plodder, but out of all ex-ministers in the Court govt he’s one of the more likeable ones. Compare to Kierath or Shave, for example. I wouldn’t bet on them winning, though… according to the pendulum, Labor have to lose 9 seats they (at least notionally) hold, mostly in the Perth metro area, and then the Libs / Nats / independents all have to work together. I can’t see that happening.
If the Nats get 4 or 5 seats and end up with balance of power, I wouldn’t immediately say they’d go for the Libs, or that country voters would destroy them if they did anything else… Karlene Maywald in SA is a Nat minister in an ALP govt, and the voters in her seat don’t seem to mind. As long as Grylls / Waldron / Redman / whoever else gets elected act as a strong, independent voice for rural interests (ain’t that their job anyway?), it shouldn’t hurt them. They’ve stuck close to the Libs in NSW and Qld, and all it’s got them is a lot of rural independents (off topic just briefly, carn Rob Oakeshott), taking their place. Who knows, a minority ALP govt might make Grylls a minister.
135 L: What’s so bad about Janet Woollard?
Meanwhile, here is Ch 9’s Coverage of the announcement.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/video?vxSiteId=1929a7b6-d2c6-4f56-bacf-9ca1759ced99&vxChannel=Nine%20News&vxClipId=1201_080807_ninenews&vxBitrate=300
Help me! Help me!
I am entrapped in a household which has links to the world only via the Advertiser and whatever rubbish can be heard on local ragio.
It is far too much for me, comfort from the bludgers would be welcome, pleeease.
Crankynick Dissects Day 1 of the campaign over at LP
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/07/day-1-of-the-wa-state-electionand-were-all-bored-already/
Forgive me if this is a tad pedestrian but how is it possible that nigh on the first word to pass Barnett’s lips after getting the nod is “canal”? Is it supposed to be a get out in front of it early/elephant in the room tactic? Surely that won’t work…
Peter K
#173
“Henderson & Carpenter, the would be Mugabes of Australian politics. With elections now only every 4 years, surely they could allow people a decent choice. Henderson went a year early for absolutely no reason and allowed 17 days with two electorates having their choice abolished altogether. Now Carpenter goes one better and effectively allows just two, using the olympics to avoid scrutiny”
Clearly you think Labor will win by going at this convenient to Labor time So what ? fixed term elections ? or just unappy consevative ?
“the would be Mugabes of Australian politics”
Would not wish that if i was you , those Mugabe types do not like consevatives at all
Has Barnett got a preselection yet?
Not officially by the party, despite Deidre Willmont “Withdrawing for the good of the Party”
Robert Taylor in The West reports the latest Labor polling is “thought to give Labor a nice buffer over the Liberals”, while the Liberal polling that convinced Buswell to go showed Barnett was less recognised than Matt Birney. Elsewhere in the paper, Amanda Banks reports Deidre Willmot “will likely have to put her political career on the backburner”, although she might yet run in a seat where they don’t have a candidate – i.e. one they are unlikely to win (Tom, to answer your question, she has stepped aside from Cottesloe so yes, Barnett has preselection).
Hmm, so much for Van Onselen’s statement about Barnett having a recognition factor amongst voters.
And I wonder how the First time Voters will vote, considering they were in Year 9 when the last Election was held ?
WA and SA Newspolls. Both 54-46.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/wanewspoll.pdf
WA poll was taken over the last 2 months with Buswell as Lib leader.
Oops sorry thats an OLD poll.
If anyone recalls the 2005 Election Campaign, you will recall Colin Barnett entered the Liberal Party Policy Launch to the theme from MASH, which is subtitled “Suicide Is Painless”.
Now if Troy Buswell was still leader, would this be his Campaign Song ?
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=hTaofNXSWMA
William, from your Morley Page:
Magro wasn’t defeated, he withdrew his nomination at the 11th hour, though it was probably too late to cancel the ballot.
The WA Libs have a Facebook page.
http://www.new.facebook.com/group.php?gid=26876022768&refurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.new.facebook.com%2Fs.php%3Fq%3DTroy%2BBuswell%26init%3Dq#/group.php?gid=9256860294
WA Seats to Watch Story from ABC TV News.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200808/r279757_1186061.asx
That Facebook page is one of the most idiotic things I’ve ver seen in campaign material!
Protect WA’s booming economy from…?
Free advertising to the other guys you think?
Have the Liberal strategists bet everything they own on a Labor landslide so they’re deliberately throwing the game?
It seems the creator of that Facebook page was a former candidate for Balcatta for the 2005 election.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2005/s1311014.htm
197: That facebook group wouldn’t be an offical one created by the party. Like most facebook groups, it would be just one created by a supporter.
Labor has to lose a state election sooner or later! They are vulnerable in WA, I’m only basing this on their poor performance(in that state) in last year’s Federal Election.
But, the Liberals have stuffed up their own chances, and I doubt resurrecting Barnett will get them over the line!
So, because of the recent redistribution(that favours Labor) and a booming economy, I’ll tip a narrow Labor victory!
Progressive @ 200,
Surely it is more likely that this will happen in NSW than in other states. Not a day goes by in NSW when either the SMH or the Tele (or both) is attacking the government for some stuff-up.
The only thing stopping the Liberals from winning in NSW is… the NSW Liberal Party, who, even with a decent leader like Barry O’Farrell, still can’t seem to cut through with voters.
That said, I don’t think the WA ALP Government is in anywhere close to a precarious position as the NSW ALP Government is – so, given the redistributions and the leadership issues in WA, I’m still tipping a comfortable ALP win there…
Swing Lowe: the one thing in Iemma’s favour is that he doesn’t have to face the people until March 2011!
#198
“Melinda Poor was accused of being a Liberal Party plant when she infamously called Perth talk-back radio in September to challenge the ALP’s Family Tax Policy. Back then she said the policy would make her family $1800 dollars a year worse off.
Ms Poor disputes she was put up to it by the Liberals, saying her membership of the party had lapsed at that stage. Now she’s a fully financial member, and tomorrow she’ll CONTEST the seat of Balcatta in northern Perth as the Liberal candidate.”
Ar you saying it only takes 10 months from being allegedlky a non Liberal , then to be a Liberal who forgets to pay there membership , and then to be an endorsed Liberal candiate
Anything’s possible in today’s Liberal Party. Their current federal leader was a card-carrying ALP member in 1992.
On the ALP losing somewhere eventually: By my count Labor has now won 21 state and territory elections in a row since 1997. Tomorrow the NT will make it 22. WA on 6 Sept would make it 23 (though I’m not counting that chicken until it hatches). Labor has now become the “default party” at state/territory elections. Unless there is a major scandal or economic collapse, Labor will win. Even the Iemma government, despite all its baggage, would start favourite in my book.
There was a swing to Labor in WA at the last federal election. Labor was very lucky to hold Cowan and Swan in 2004 (look at the Senate votes in both seats).
Bird @ 181,
Errrr, the poll displayed by William this morning would seem to disagree.
As for Janet Woollard, having watched her in Parliament for 2 years and heard her squawkings after that, as well as knowing the family somewhat, allow me to assure you – certifiable.
Geoff, there was actually a swing of 2.1% to Labor in WA in the last Fed election.
Labor was very unlucky in WA in the federal election. There was a statewide swing, and every seat swung to Labor except Cowan and Swan, which Labor lost (while picking up Hasluck for a net loss of one). Cowan was obviously lost due to Graham Edwards retiring. Swan seems to have been a case of a complacent local member, who having survived the Latham election thought he was safe.
on the WA Liberal party website, Colins photo is made to look like a polaroid stuck on the page with stickytape: http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/
just in case it changes: http://img242.imageshack.us/img242/4940/libstw7.gif
That gives one confidence.
With TroyBoy out of the picture it is now Carps who is on the nose. The real question is whether the inevitable swing against Labor will be enough to put down the Govt.
A very astute observation – who wins the election depends on how big the swing is. Obviously you were paying attention at Crichton-Browne Academy.
@204
In no one State or Territory is the recent Labor record genuinely exceptional (I’ve got the data to back this up). The striking phenomenon is that this run of Labor wins has taken in all States and Territories at the same time. This could be the product of a new pattern in Australian politics, affecting all parts of the country, which makes Labor the ‘default’ winner of State and Territory elections, as you suggest. But it could also just be a coincidence.
(You could make quite a strong case on the historical record that Labor is the ‘default’ winner of Tasmanian elections. Since Labor came on the scene there, the other side has never been able to put together an extended run of election victories.)
there is a theory that Carpenter has a death wish. there is rumour that he is not happy in the job – he is at heart a conscience politician and he has not been allowed any “thinking time”, as Keating put it this week, because he has been busy trying to neuter the Labor factions, weeding out the Burke cronies, and squabbling with a biased local media.
as for the “what have you done for us lately” question, they have been flashing the cash lately with big new hospital and medical research schemes, and no doubt will be rolling out more ways to spend the windfall from the resource boom. I’m guessing a second gas pipeine might be timely.
you are on the money skink. Sorry Adam I know you don’t listen to talkback or taxi drivers
Antonio @ 170, I’ll see your Mount Buffalo and raise it with WA’s tallest peak
-Mount Meharry.
Labor would do well to remind the electorate that a majority of Liberal members tacitly approved of Buswell’s offensive behavior by twice re-electing him as the most suitable alternative premier, even after it caused international outrage. And pointing out that Buswell would likely be the Treasurer in a Barnett government, and Barnett’s likely successor, can only help the ALP. I’d like to see somene ask Liz Constable if she’d have confidence in Buswell in either role.
I talk to taxi drivers all the time – mainly about Pakistan or Somalia or wherever they happen to be from.
#213 has me laughing but it will make dear leader carps very very happy.
No offense to anyone posting but I’m assuming you aren’t watching WA politics very closely.
Skink,
Y’know, he could just resign. Why throw an election when you can quit in a huff?
how did this get sidetracked onto place names?
my vote goes to Lake Disappointment
“You could make quite a strong case on the historical record that Labor is the ‘default’ winner of Tasmanian elections.”
Actually, I thought Gunns was the default winner in every Tasmanian election…
Silly old Tasmanians, voting for parties that offer them employment, rather than a party that wants them to live in caves and eat tofu.
At the risk of continuing the sidetracking of this post, I think the point is more Gunns’ alleged/perceived corruption of the process of Government, rather than the hyperbolically expressed stereotype of Green policies.
nothing wrong with tofu AiC -.-
Buswell is now the shadow treasurer
bahahahahahahahahahahahaha’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/08/2329087.htm
ooo Liz Constable is in the shadow cabinet
So much for her being an “Independent”
Labor should be hitting Churchlands with “A Vote For Liz Constable, Is A Vote For Colin Barnett”
‘Labor should be hitting Churchlands with “A Vote For Liz Constable, Is A Vote For Colin Barnett”’
erm get real
Churchlands is bluer than a blue thing in a blueatorium
That would probably INCREASE Constable’s vote in CHurchlands…its as conservative as it gets down there
http://www.facebook.com/friends/?id=1209473632
and no wonder
Labor release their First Promise – Probably to counter the oldies backlash at the Federal Budget.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/08/2328796.htm
oh Lordy – Carp’s first policy announcement looks like an appeasement to Howard Sattler. He should have gone on 6PR to announce it
anyway – it looks like the pork-barrelling has commenced
I Know – good move, but I’ll bet Sattler will whinge about it only being available between 10-3pm during the week because it will affect people who leave early for medical appts etc.
And poor old Deidre has missed out playing with the big boys.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/08/2328642.htm
since Carpenter’s campaign slogan is “Vision and Stability”, I wonder if he will also be offering old folks free spectacles and zimmer frames.
Close but not quite.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/08/2328796.htm
The “Bedwetter” (Skink’s Term) on Colin Barnett.
http://blogs.watoday.com.au/outsidethesquare/2008/08/barnett_braces.html
Zombie – that Churchlands comment was hilarious.
It was certainly no surprise Barnett got Constable on side – I predicted it in a previous thread and even the West picked it up (not to blow my own horn or anything).
Small business and housing for Buswell – fine – but Treasury seems a bit much to me (again, see previous thread).
I can’t help but think that the people here are FAR too politically involved to give an accurate impression of popular support (or otherwise) for any given candidate or party.
As an example – I was lurking here yesterday when I saw the news the election had been called. My reaction – ‘Whoo hoo’ – my co-workers, ‘oh crap’.
Carps: Vision and Stability
Colin: Fission and Ability
Hmm TWAT (WA Today) are really going hard against Barnett – which is a refreshing change from The Worst
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/barnett-carries-baggage-for-libs-20080808-3s40.html
Has Paris Hilton andorsed anyone yet?
Troy Buswell would be her preferred Candidate
And it is confirmed that the Nationals will NOT be part of any coalition.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=89845
should that be:
Carpenter: Vision and Stability
Colin Barnett: Derision and Calamity
or maybe Barnett should have retired: Fishing and Senility
This should embarrass the Liberals no end
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/willmott-gets-unexpected-support-20080808-3s3h.html
I need some polls soon, the really tough thing about state elections is how few useful polls we seee….
hmm… interesting to see who Carpenter is going to bone if he earns some electoral capital from this
Radisich has already been given the cold shoulder – maybe Roberts and Quirk will follow McHale and that will be the end of the Stygians
and another for the “what have they done for us lately” – the unfinished Heath Ledger Pillpoppertorium
jasmine,
the current web poll running at The Waste has the Libs streaking ahead at 59-32 and you can’t ask for clearer and more unbiased polling than that
And Perth Now’s Current polling:
You have already voted! Here are the results so far:
West Australians are going to the polls on September 6. Who will you vote for?
Labor
32%
Liberal
51%
Independent
5%
Anybody else
10%
Total votes
Total of 2826 votes
Really Scientific that – you can easily rig thes online polls by clearing your cookies and rebooting your modem to get a new IP address
Anyone care to guess how many upper house seats the cave-dwelling tofu-eaters will win?
The West surprisingly have a very good election website with links to electorate profiles etc.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=73076
Christ, Adam. I could’ve confused you for a fellow Liberal.
Nothing working-class about the Greens…all raving socialists and fundamentalist nutjobs
4 – North Metro(Giz), South Metro, East Metro and South West(Paul)
From my understanding, the Greens believe North Metro to be the least likely of those four. They’re apparently quite confident of South Metro.
249 Frank – I remember online polls being conducted by the Daily Terror last federal election showing the Libs were shoe ins on every issue and on voting intentions. If I didn’t know better I’d be thinking the Young Libs were hard at work.
Ithink you’re pretty much on the mark, and it’s easy to discguise it as most, if not all Yoiung Libs work in the Corporate world, and have access to PC’s during working hours, and are possibly IT experts running automated scripts to achieve it.
Hmm, Shelley Archer to stand as an Independent in the Upper House – More money wasted by Hubby Kevvie and the CMFEU
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24148767-5017005,00.html
Hmm, from the Crikey Email, Can William please post this for us plebs ?
“Most, if not all Young Libs work in the Corporate world.” Ho ho – most Young Libs are either law students or else work in Liberal MPs’ offices.
These are the Top 10 stories on Perth now and not one of them is a State Election one.
1. Newman returns serves on MP
2. Maddie ’stolen by pedophiles’
3. Viewers fury at Kate Ritchie
4. Death threats to AFL stars
5. Sneaky mountain lion snatches…
6. Carson dumped in modern style
7. World’s biggest ecstasy bust
8. Sam ‘embarrassed’ over Wriedt
9. WA hopefuls in model show finals
10. Lisa Marie Presley having twins
Why I love PB:
• 76
Adam in Canberra Says:
August 7th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Since this is a WA thread, I have to get in a reference to my favourite Australian placename, Useless Loop.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useless_Loop
William should institute the Useless Loop Award for the candidate who does or says the dumbest thing in the course of the campaign. Any early nominations?
• 106
Adam in Canberra Says:
August 7th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
In Victoria we also have Tittybong, Upotipotpon and Dondangadale.
• 112
Gary Bruce Says:
August 7th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Adam I think you’ll find “Dondangadale” is actually “Dandongadale” unless there is another place with a similar name. I ‘ve been to Dandongadale, not that any of this matters.
• 113
Antonio Says:
August 7th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
#106
I’ll pass that on to the folks at Nar Nar Goon and Koo-Wee-Rup.
• 114
Gary Bruce Says:
August 7th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
“Mount Buggery is worth a mention too.” So you can go to Buggery?
• 116
Adam in Canberra Says:
August 7th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Gary, you are right. But have you been to Burrumbuttock?
• 125
Gary Bruce Says:
August 7th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
No Adam but Burrumbuttock sounds like the a…..end of the world.
• 162
Ophuph Hucksake Says:
August 7th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Adam:
Why go all the way to Useless Loop, when in Perth we have Innaloo, Upper Swan and Cockburn (the suburb that dares not speak its name – the ‘ck’ is silent).
• 170
Antonio Says:
August 7th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
#162
Upper Swan?
In Victoria, we’d rather Mount Buffalo.
(sorry about lowering the tone…it was thinking of troy Buswell that made me do it)
215
Ozymandias Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
Antonio @ 170, I’ll see your Mount Buffalo and raise it with WA’s tallest peak
-Mount Meharry.
Hahahahahahahahah (made my day).
Okay but what about Koolyanobbing?
Kalgoorlie Lib reckons he is on track for a win.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/08/2329043.htm
Hmm, it’s one of those 3 way contests I was talking about plus John Bowler, who was well liked and respected in the electorate under the old boundaries.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wa2008/kalgoorlie.htm
Ex ABC TV,
Colin Has Dumped his Canal – full details on Stateline at 7.30pm
And here is the article.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/08/2329629.htm
That’s an amazing backflip Frank, I thought the canal was the thing that was supposed to show what a visionary Barnett is and how progressive he is compared to a static government.
I’ve spoken to Brendon Grylls in the past and I believe him when he says the Nats won’t enter a coalition with anyone under his leadership.
Who would they support in a possible minority government? I imagine that would depend on the response to the Nats royalties policy.
The Nats are also reportedly considering directing preferences to Labor ahead of Liberal in certain seats.
Kalgoorlie is actually a four-way contest. The Nats candidate is a high-profile local Tony Crook, better known than the ALP and Liberal candidates.
I would guess there would be a small swing to Labor
this depending how sitting Mps in the south west and Geradlton go
could be the difference between a labor Landslide and no change
I reckon John Bowler’s got as good a chance as any in Kalgoorlie. Labor and the Libs seem to be running young no names, and I wouldn’t write off the Nat candidate… last time, they didn’t run in Kalgoorlie or Murchison-Eyre (or even in the upper house region?), so it’s hard to say how they’ll do. If the Liberal vote goes down in flames without Birney, and Labor don’t get that much of the vote, it’s possible Bowler could come second (I’m guessing to the Libs, though I wouldn’t lay money on it), and if Labor and the Libs preference each other last, he could well end up winning. Same could be said for the Nats, actually. Put it this way, if Labor and the Libs don’t have a good hard go at the seat, they’ll lose it.
State Election Timeline courtesy of the WA Electoral Commission.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/state/pdfs/TimeLine_Aug_2008.pdf
at 247 we have “Stygians” I’ve done google and wiki and I still don’t quite get it; I’m assuming we are in sexist territory?
Video of Canal Dumping.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/08/08/2329645.htm
From the Morgan thread.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=AZTCQdFAuDI
Frank can I take it that you are not a Victorian for your post no 34 was very wrong
34
Frank Calabrese Says:
August 7th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
But there were extenuating circumstances, such as the collapse of the Pyramid Bank etc.
No such issues here.
Pyramid Building Society fell over under the Cain ALP Government in the early 1990s!
Yes you are indeed correct, I got it the wrong way around and was thinking about Kennett Winning the Election from Joan Kirner.
New thread.