6.00pm. Booths have closed. Your first port of call in all respects should be the ABC site; me second.
6.29pm. The new Bayview booth in Fong Lim has apparently been reported: ABC radio says it shows an inadequate swing for David Tollner of less than 5 per cent, but this is based on Antony Green’s guesstimate of how the booth would go.
6.34pm. ABC Radio reports early figures from Brennan and Drysdale showing the CLP with a big enough swing for the former but not the latter.
6.38pm. A small booth in Daly shows a 5 per cent swing to the CLP, not nearly enough to put Labor in trouble if it’s indicative.
6.40pm. Trish Crossin says scrutineers say Labor are looking good in Fannie Bay and Fong Lim.
6.41pm. ABC site now providing results.
6.43pm. ABC computer says CLP retains Blain, Araluen and Drysdale (Drysdale is Labor-held but notionally Liberal post-redistribution); Labor retains Brennan (a big win if so) and Fong Lim.
6.45pm. ABC Radio reports CLP scrutineers sounding very confident about Braitling, no problems in Araluen.
6.46pm. I suspect that Brennan call is highly premature: one very small booth has reported. Labor Senator Trish Crossin tells ABC Radio that Drysdale is not looking good, having been made notionally CLP by the redistribution. Antony Green says consistent 5 per cent swings across Darwin.
6.49pm. ABC computer gives Labor Fannie Bay, Wanguri and Fong Lim – so no dice for David Tollner if accurate. It also gives Katherine to the CLP, which on the raw figures looks like a sound call. It was expected they would face a strong challenge from independent Toni Tapp Coutts.
6.52pm. CLP Senator Grant Tambling tells ABC Radio the two booths in Fannie Bay are highly disparate, so we shouldn’t assume they’re out of the hunt on the basis of the one that has reported.
6.54pm. The Ludmilla booth reporting in Fong Lim has changed the situation there dramatically, according to ABC Radio: apparently very tight. That’s with about 50 per cent counted compared with 11.8 per cent recorded on the computer.
6.56pm. ABC computer now calling Fong Lim for Tollner.
6.57pm. ABC computer calls Stuart for Labor: no surprise there.
7.00pm. ABC Radio reports about 30 per cent counted in Johnston and no trouble there for Labor.
7.02pm. Independent incumbent Gerry Wood romping home in Nelson.
7.05pm. Live coverage from Sky News, but no luck from ABC TV streaming.
7.08pm. ABC computer says CLP to retain Greatorex, Labor retaining Johnston.
7.12pm. ABC Radio says Greens polling strongly in Nightcliff; Labor to win.
7.14pm. ABC TV streaming now in business, but the news is still on.
7.15pm. Slight CLP lead in Labor margin Port Darwin. Another strong performance for the Greens.
7.17pm. ABC computer says Terry Mills to retain Blain for CLP.
7.19pm. Let’s look at the best case CLP scenario. They have won Drysdale and Sanderson; no figures for Goyder but let’s say it theirs; Brennan and Fannie Bay not good on early figures but too early to call; could well win Port Darwin and Fong Lim; haven’t won Nightcliff or Johnston; no real figures from Daly or Casuarina; anything else probably not winnable. ABC Radio indicates the Labor will win Karama. So I’m giving them seven seats, could well win another two, will need to do a lot better to win a further two, and another two we don’t know about yet. The outer limits of the best case scenario gives them 13 seats and a bare majority.
7.27pm. Labor has clearly retained Casuarina, so I’m now ruling out a CLP majority.
7.29pm. Clare Martin tells ABC TV the CLP is doing better than she had expected.
7.32pm. Martin says Labor in “serious trouble” in Brennan, but the ABC computer still only reporting 8 per cent. Fannie Bay very close.
7.34pm. Antony Green still indicating Labor will win.
7.36pm. Great result for Jodeen Carney in Araluen. Maybe if she’d been leader …
7.42pm. ABC Radio says Labor 12, CLP 9, independent 1, in doubt 3.
7.42pm. Antony Green confirms Labor defeat in Brennan, but Clare Martin says Labor looking good in Daly.
7.46pm. Outstanding seats to watch: Fong Lim (likely CLP gain) and Fannie Bay (likely Labor retain). If the CLP wins both it could be 12-12-1. Slow count in Daly but Labor 10 per cent ahead: maybe the CLP can still hope for a miracle there. Overall swing of over 9 per cent, according to ABC.
7.51pm. So CLP notionally retains its six seats; seems to have won Brennan, Port Darwin, Sanderson; ahead in Fong Lim, behind in Fannie Bay; has won Braitling from a retiring independent. So 12 seats not out of the question – meaning it’s too early to say Labor has won.
7.56pm. Daly count firming up, Labor has clearly won. All down to Fong Lim and Fannie Bay, and CLP likely to gain the former. Most likely result 13-11-1, but 12-12-1 not impossible.
7.58pm. CLP leads in Brennan by 3.2 per cent, 58 per cent counted, so they’re almost certainly home there.
8.01pm. For my own reference: Fong Lim CLP leads 2.4 per cent, 50.8 per cent counted. Fannie Bay Labor leads 1.4 per cent, 59.3 per cent counted.
8.03pm. NT Electoral Office site not handling the strain.
8.05pm. Well, isn’t this exciting. Labor 40 votes ahead in Fannie Bay: the 1.4 per cent figure is purely a projection, which are of less use in NT elections than other places.
8.06pm. Looks like the early scare for Labor in Stuart, based purely on speculative ABC computer projection, has now passed.
8.15pm. Antony says we will get 50 more pre-poll votes tonight from Fannie Bay, where Labor leads by 40 votes. Would like to hear a similar update from Fong Lim.
8.21pm. There seems to be some vague doubt about Arafura: independent preferences to decide the result on currently available figures, but yet-to-report Aboriginal communities should resolve the issue in Marion Scrymgour’s favour.
8.22pm. Antony notes low turnout in Fong Lim and speculates we could get a lot of absent votes from voters confused by the new boundaries, which makes sense because it’s a new seat.
8.26pm. I gather this independent in Arafura has directed preferences to the CLP: Antony says 11 per cent of preferences need to leak to Labor for Scrymgour to win.
8.34pm. ABC computer says the Labor lead in Fannie Bay is now 55 votes, up from 40.
8.36pm. Antony says 57 votes.
8.40pm. Antony says Labor’s scare in Arafura has passed.
8.45pm. Important political lesson: don’t knife a leader who takes you to a gigantic landslide victory without any historical precedent.
8.52pm. The overall vote is line-ball on two-party preferred, although this might be corrupted by the two seats where Labor members were elected unopposed.
8.56pm. David Tollner’s lead in Fong Lim has narrowed: with the vote count up from 50.8 per cent to 55.0 per cent, the margin is down from 2.4 per cent to 1.6 per cent.
9.00pm. Renewed doubt about Arafura: leakage required to Labor now 18 per cent rather than 11 per cent.
9.22pm. Antony says substantial preference leakage in Arafura means Scrymgour is out of the woods. All down to Fannie Bay then.
9.29pm. Remiss of me not to have mentioned the extraordinarily low turnout.
9.50pm. Paul Henderson’s speech concedes the CLP only nine seats, apparently regarding Brennan and Port Darwin as well as Fong Lim as in doubt. Much talk of the low turnout and the possibility of large numbers of absent votes as a result of the redistribution.
347 Comments
If anyone wants to use it, I’ve got a map of NT electorates for Google Earth. Download the file here and open it in Google Earth.
http://www.box.net/shared/bqe918d6o4
Am I missing the live streaming of ABC1 coverage somewhere on the ABC site?
It doesn’t begin until 7 pm Central Time.
William: wrong timezone.
it’s only 5.30 in Darwin…
Silly me.
Hang on, I think William got the right timezone at the top. It’s now 6:30 in Darwin (7:00 here in Sydney).
Yes, and on ABC Radio they are beginning to report results (see above).
And they just said it’s half past six on the radio.
1st results in from Fong Lim, Bayview booth 274-203 to tollner. Not sure what the swing is though
Darwin Radio ABC news says early figures have a 6.7% swing to CLP.
They said 4 point something on ABC Radio, but it’s a new booth so that’s based on an estimate of the 2005 result.
Too early to be getting reliable swing figures yet, not enough votes counted in enough booths, give it 30-60 minutes.
why can’t I get the ABC to stream? Grrr
OK now we have it.
ABC computer calls Brennan for Labor.
NTEC have results for Fong Lim with 43% counted….http://notes.nt.gov.au/nteo/Electorl.nsf?OpenDatabase
The ABC website has called that the CLP will retain Blain, Drysdale and Araluen and the ALP will retain Brennan (5.9% swing TO Labor) and Fong Lim.
Streaming is patchy for me. However, local ABC TV coverage will be up in 15 minutes.
ABC radio is working great, and they have Antony Green on it. ABC TV popped up briefly then was lost.
Labor seems to have held Fannie Bay, or so says the Greenster
ABC Darwin seems like amateur hour compared to Sydney radio…
bit worrying for the ALP in Fong Lim…I’d have expected Bonson to be doing a lot better.
Labor holding Fannie Bay with an increased margin is interesting, I would have thought Gary Lambert (CLP) was a strong challenge.
ABC now calling Fong Lim for Tollner.
That’s hardly surprising Swing Lowe – Sydney is 40 times bigger than Darwin
Labor’s doing pretty well even to be in the hunt for Drysdale, given that it has a notional CLP majority.
ABC now saying 8.0% 2pp against Labor but on Labor track to win by 9 seats.
Anyone having any luck with TV streaming?
Not here.
Sky News is covering the election live.
Early days yet, but the only non-aligned MP (Gerry Wood, Nelson) seems to have seriously increased his already large margin.
Looks like Labor will get thumped in Drysdale.
What’s the URL ?
Mr Green is reporting a strong Green vote. (No pun intended.)
Fannie Bay looks like a hold for Labor.
TV Stream just started working for me
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
Me too.
Can that ABC computer be right? It has Labor with 39.5% PV of the vote and the CLP with 50.6%?
Greens polling very strongly in Nightcliff and Port Darwin – around 20 per cent.
Same Here, showing ABC News atm though.
Gary, for some reason results seem to be coming in more quickly from Alice Springs than Darwin, so I imagine the high CLP vote is an artifact of this.
Plus too ultra-safe Labor seats were uncontested, so that should skew the popular vote to the CLP.
Thanks feral.
Website says that the ALP’s in trouble in Port Darwin – bit surprised there.
Can that ABC computer be right? It has Labor with 39.5% PV of the vote and the CLP with 50.6%?
Correct, but that is because almost all the booths with the largest % of votes counted are in favour of the CLP, and with one exception were already CLP seats.
That number will be much closer in an hour or two.
CLP scrutineers are claiming Drysdale and Goyder. With big chances in Fanny Bay Port Darwin and Brennan.
Apparently according to ABC Radio news, there has been a high number of absentee votes because of the new boundries which were only finalised just weeks before the poll was announced. And Absentee votes won’t be counted until Monday.
Healthy swing to CLP across the board, but not surprising given the huge Labor win last time, they were unlikely to improve their position.
Apparently very low turnout.
In all three Alice seats (Greatorex, Araluen, Braitling) the Greens are close to the ALP, who are polling very badly in all three (unsurprisingly). In two of them we are close enough that I could see a Green coming second.
Oh, and 23.5% in Nightcliff.
CLP wins Sanderson.
It’s going to be a bit of a blow for the government if both Sanderson and Fong Lim (plus Drysdale) have fallen: three ministers losing their seats is not a good look.
Anyone disagree with any of this:
Drysdale and Goyder are both notional CLP seats, so the CLP wins there don’t signify. The real or possible CLP gains seems to be Fong Lim, Port Darwin and Sanderson. The last I heard Labor was holding Brennan and Fannie Bay. I wouldn’t call three gains much of a result for the CLP.
Help me out here Ben – are you a chance of winning anything?
Admittedly something pretty freaky would have to happen in the outstanding Fannie Bay booth. Brennan still too early to say.
Can’t find the Sanderson results on the ABC site.
Just Me, I heard that on the radio. Nobody seems to be in doubt about it. However, Labor have held Casuarina, so my best case CLP scenario is now 12 seats (and that’s VERY best case).
You talking to me William?
No, we’re not. All three Alice seats are safe enough for the CLP. If we beat the ALP it won’t help. The CLP has a significant primary vote majority in all three.
Our best result is Nightcliff on 23.6%, but we’re still 10% behind the CLP there.
Thanks Ben.
Anyone know anything about Daly?
William! (@55) Given the discussions of dramatic repercussions for Greens, I’d call it doing okay. The issue as always is finding the required 25 candidates to run, especailly when an election is called as quickly as this was. So, while not winning a seat, the vote is good and strong, bodes well for the future in terms of local Councils, and the potential for a Green win in the next 2 electoral cycles.
But then, I’d also be worried about the poor turnout (or absentee votes?).
Why are the updates for the most crucial seats always the slowest? Sanderson and Brennan, has that been mentioned on the radio?
I wouldn’t have thought it possible either, but my ears prick up when I hear talk of them coming second. They’re seats I hadn’t been looking at.
Currently Labor to win by 5 seats according to latest ABC news.
Wish you’d run a Green in Sanderson… I had to choose between a guy who got pissed at the cricket and sexually harassed a woman, and the liberal candidate. So, of course, I was forced to vote Labor again…
Once NT politics was dominated by race and incumbency advantage. It now seems to have normalised to be much more like the rest of Australia, although look at the poor performance by the indigenous CLP candidate in Nhulunbuy as an indication of what some CLP voters still think?
Thanks William.
Jodeen Carney (Araluen) is doing extremely well. Increased her margin for the second election running, this time with a 20% swing (so far).
ABC Radio panel saying
CLP 9
ALP 12
Ind 1
Too close to call 3
If the Greens had a candidate as good as Jane Clark in a seat as good as Nightcliff I reckon we might have had a show. Pity there’s about 2000km between them.
although look at the poor performance by the indigenous CLP candidate in Nhulunbuy as an indication of what some CLP voters still think?
Possibly. But Nhulunbuy has always been a strong Labor seat.
And no doubt the NT Intervention would’ve had an effect with the locals distrusting of Liberal/CLP Politicians whatever their racial background.
brennan in trouble, daly and johnston looking good for ALP, according to the TV
What’s going on in Brennan?
There’s been no updates on the ALP website since it showed a 5.9% swing to the Labor Party, but now Antony Green is saying it’s been lost.
Okay, it’s been updated now to a CLP gain with a 3.8% swing.
ABC online now calling ALP13, CLP 11, Ind 1. But seats haven’t updated so no indication where CLP has supposedly ‘won’ an extra 2 seats…
Brennan would make four CLP gains. What are the other seats in doubt?
Brennan looks to go to CLP with 3.8% swing with 58%counted. It was a 0.6% margin.
OK now giving CLP Brennan and Sanderson (apparently)
75: ABC computer has Fong Lim, Port Darwin, Sanderson, and Brennan as CLP gains.
I would call four CLP gains only a predictable correction after the whopping defeat they had last time. Where are the other two doubtful seats?
James J, how come Drysdale isn’t on the list?
WA markets will be interesting after this.
As a summary,
the CLP seem to have gained Brennan, Sanderson, Port Darwin and Fong Lim, as well as Braitling, Goyder and Drysdale, which were notionally CLP.
The only other close seats seem to be Fannie Bay and Stuart, but Labor is still leading in both.
So, overall.
ALP: Nightcliff, Johnston, Karama, Casuarina, Wanguri, Arafura, Daly, Arnhem, Nhulunbuy, Barkly, MacDonnell, and maybe Fannie Bay and Stuart.
CLP: Sanderson, Port Darwin, Fong Lim, Braitling, Araluen, Greatorex, Goyder, Drysdale, Blain, Katherine and maybe Brennan.
IND: Nelson
I reckon CLP gains: Braitling (Ind), Brennan, Drysdale, Sanderson, Goyder.
Undecided: Fannie Bat, Port darwin, Fong Lim.
So 12-9-1 so far
Drysdale and Goyder became notionally CLP following the redistribution so are not classified as CLP gains by the ABC website.
Who does the independent support in the case of a hung parliament?
Wonder how much the CLPs threat to public services jobs cost them?
I’m open to disagreement here, but the CLP has held all six of its seats, recovered Braitling, won Brennan, Port Darwin and Sanderson; ahead in Fong Lim, behind in Fannie Bay. Twelve seats and a hung parliament not out of the question.
Antony Green says that the 17.5% swing in Stuart is unreliable and should be lower and thus not so close for the ALP.
3 observations:
1. A conservative electorate reverting to the mean
2. Australia wide appears to be a pattern of some of the paint being stripped off Labor margins at State and Territory level with the 2nd generation leadership
3. Suggests we will be seeing a string of Liberal governments at the State level from about March 2011 onwards.
Yeah, if they pull ahead in Fannie Bay and stay ahead in Fong Lim and Brennan it’s a dead heat.
Who knows what Gerry Wood will do if the parliament is hung?
Being only one or two seats from government and defeating up to six sitting members (incl the two notional CLP seats with ALP members) in good economic times must be a pretty good result for the CLP, considering the predictions were a 2-3 seat gain at most. Probably there’s a very strong Clare Martin factor where most territorians were voting for her personally rather than the ALP.
90 Edward – I agree with your prediction but one election doesn’t make a trend.
ESJ,
If there’s going to be such a “string of Liberal governments”, why would it begin with the state which will be last to go to the polls?
Remember, before NSW there will be elections in WA, SA, Tas, Victoria, Queensland, and the ACT. In other words, everywhere.
Twelve seats and a hung parliament not out of the question.
Indeed.
I have very little doubt that Gerry Wood would back the CLP if it came down to it.
I agree with Edward’s first two points. On point three, I can see only NSW as even a possible Coalition win in the next cycle, and the NSW Libs have a long history of sabotaging their own chances. I would say Labor is fairly safe in WA, and I don’t think there is any chance of Qld, Vic, SA going to the Coalition next time up. I don’t know enough about the new guy in Tas to have an opinion.
93 MDMConnell – that’s probably the only real conclusion you can come to.
1. A conservative electorate reverting to the mean
Debatable.
For the CLP to have gone from 4 to 13 in a 25-seat Assembly in the one election would have been nothing short of miraculous.
Going from 4 to 11 is quite a good result for the CLP, and puts them in a very competitive position for the next election.
So much for the northern suburbs of Darwin deciding elections.
Sure, Sanderson was one of the seats to change hands, but the CLP’s comeback was built on three seats around Palmerston and the only three “too close to call” are the three southernmost Darwin seats (Fannie Bay, Port Darwin, Fong Lim).
Well if SeanofPerth in the WA thread is indeed correct with a story in tomorrow’s paper regarding Troy Buswell, I’d predict the so-called damage minimisation by re-electing Colin Barnett as leader will be a complete waste of time
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=911&cp=1#comment-177142
The ABC computer is giving Labor 13 seats at his stage.
I’m thinking the guy who put $100,000 on the ALP would be feeling just a touch nervous at the moment. He’ll probably get it back, but it doesn’t look like quite such a smart bet.
Also, the ALP is coming 4th in Braitling despite having the Donkey Vote. You don’t see that very often.
One of those is Fannie Bay though, and they’re only 40 votes ahead. And the ABC projections are more dicey here than elsewhere – only two or three booths per seat, and a lot of guess work required by Antony to divide them up to calculate post-redistribution margins.
So if I read it right
NT Labor are 41 votes away from losing government?
People are underestimating the effect a federal ALP government will have on the state votes ahead. Instead of a (say) 1-1.5%% protest going to the ALP, the protest will now go the other way…in effect shifting perhaps 2-3%.
The Greens ran split tickets in their six seats running. One of those was Port Darwin, where they polled 15.7% and the CLP is on 53.7% 2PP. Maybe the ALP will rue not listening to the Greens on their issues if they lose their majority.
Two Labor members being elected unopposed is looking like a costly error for the CLP now.
What was that about Arafura on ABC TV just now?
“I would say Labor is fairly safe in WA,”
Should have a look at the 2nd video clip William put on the Morgan post, nothing is a given in WA.
There is a big swing in Arafura, but the indigenous vote from Manangrida and Tiwi Islands isn’t in yet
You might be right there, Peter K.
One interesting issue arising out of this strong CLP performance is Terry Mills leadership. On the face of it you would have to say he is pretty safe, for now. But will he lead them to the next election?
Is there a suggestion that somehow the betting market was manipulated in the NT election?
Labor set to win another election
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24154540-5005962,00.html
There is certainly a discrepancy there, Diogenes.
Antony was saying that in Arafura the ALP need an 11% leakage of preferences from the second CLP candidate and the independent to win. It doesn’t sound as credible, but it could well do the same as Fannie Bay.
Or even give them a majority if the CLP wins in Arafura and Fannie Bay.
I just think everyone thought that gaining 9 seats was a bridge too far.
What happens in the betting market if the parliament is hung?
Betting markets tend to pay out on the party who provides the new premier (whether by majority or with the help of independents).
116 My understanding is that they pay on the team who gets sworn in as the government.
Can’t see Labor losing Arafura.
It comes down to Fannie Bay, though Fong Lim is still not certain (could be a large absentee vote).
Fannie Bay new count – Labor now up by 55 votes with 5 of 6 booths in, making up 65% of voters.
Update in Arafura – Labor gets 71% 2PP – easy win.
Lord D, it said that on the screen when Antony was deliberating over it – I think it might make contested assumptions about independent preferences.
Will we know the final result tonight?
Sorry, so the ABC computer is assuming the IND will preference Labor? But the actual prefs are supposed to be directed to the CLP?
Why did the ALP knife Clare Martin? Maybe it was a mistake? Anyone have any local knowledge?
It’s a weird one alright.
http://notes.nt.gov.au/nteo/Electorl.nsf?OpenDatabase
Well, which ever way it goes it will make for stronger government one would think.
pardon my ignorance – who is the seat of Fong Lim named after?
What’s with the two CLP candidates in Arafura? Add them together and there is still a lot of doubt.
There’s definitely something funny going on. I can’t remember seeing a more one-sided betting race turn out close. The real odds according to the bets placed should be 200 to 1!!
‘Tidal wave of support’ for Labor
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/08/2329392.htm
Try Fong Lim Adam.
Arafura will be very close…. Current results CLP1 512 CLP2 453 IND 455 and ALP 1116. Will come down to leakage.
Alec Fong-Lim first Chinese Mayor of Darwin ?
I think it is after Alec Fong Lim, very popular mayor a few years back.
That was only part of the problem, as she said on the ABC coverage, it was also the NT Intervention which made her disenchanted with politics in general which influenced her decision to quit.
yes OK, but who was Try Fong Lim?
All booth votes now in in Fannie Bay, Labor by 57, 50.9-49.1 with 66% of enrolled voters tallied. Looks like there must be a few absentees.
thanks for sensible answers
The League playing brother of Alec.
Must say Clare Martin always presented as articulate and likeable on the telly, the current bloke comes across as a boofhead – which shouldnt be a disadvantage in the territory?
What happened – an outbreak of metrosexualism in Darwin?
Martin was barely able to survive a move against her a year before she eventually went. Those who undermined her have no business being in politics.
130: True. But i don’t think anybody saw this result coming. Everybody was just assuming a comfortable ALP win. Everybody has been caught by suprise.
Nothing bookies love more than crying poor, it is their main source of publicity.
Diogenes, wasn’t the Vic 1999 election supposed to be a Lib cakewalk according to virtually everyone? Instead Labor made incredible gains on the night, and won govt a month later after the Frankston East by-election. This was a major upset – sometimes upsets do happen against all the odds. It looks like the CLP has fallen just short here.
Ben Raue 95 -
Why would it begin with the State that is last to go to the polls?
Answer:
I think the State and Territory governments (with the exception of Tassie and NSW) probably have one more go left in them. This cycle is what will bring the ALP back from the stratosphere to competitive margins in the States.
NSW and Tassie are different because you will be having 3rd generation leadership at the next polls.
The CLP has to be ruing the fact that they didn’t have a candidate in Macdonnell – surely it could have been a candidate for a big swing to the CLP…
So who is going to be Opposition Leader – Tollner?
Never knew the reason they knifed Martin except someone else wanting to be king and queen. I guess they assumed the huge backlash firstly against a corrupt and arrogant CLP under Stone then Burke would continue to carry through. But people have obviously forgotten those days and voting for what they think of the ALP.
Arafura showing 11% swing to CLP with 4 of 5 booths having an actual 2PP count. Labor leads easily 63-37.
Tollner’s lead has narrowed from 2.4 per cent to 1.6 per cent.
If it was a horse race the stewerds would be investigating. However, it is a little hard to take a dive in an election.
There is a quite low turnout in Fong Lim, and there may be a large number of absentee votes, so Tollner is not safe yet.
Clearly if Clare Martin had led the ALP to the polls she would’ve won.Even if the swings were similar she would’ve held onto Fannie Bay easily, and she seems to still have some life left in her.
Smart people in the Labor Party.
Also, anyone remember the supposed reason Paul Henderson gave for calling an early election? What does a hung parliament do for stability?
I gather because of the new boundaries there is an unusually high absent vote, which is not being counted tonight. With such dinky little seats this late counting could make significant differences to tonight’s apparent results.
Surely Terry Mills has shored up his position?
Yes I dare say Clare Martin would be chuckling into the chardy tonight. A touch of schadenfreude eh?
Will the NT ALP be doing any soul searching? or will it be dismissed as rednecks voting for rednecks after 2 temporary abberations?
Final result will be Labor 13, CLP 11, Independent 1. Labor to hold Fannie Bay by a slightly smaller margin than Clare Martin first won it.
State elections tend to have a little higher rate of people not voting (because there is no way of voting interstate). And the population of NT moves around a lot more than the rest of Australia. Their trips interstate tend to last longer than Australians too (due to distance).
A couple of observations on the Fong Lim figures.
All booths counted and a total of 2,684 votes counted out of a total enrollment of 4,883. Has NT adopted non-compulsory voting or there a huge proportion of absentee and pre-poll voting in NT?
2 candidates and 145 informal votes – just over 5% !?
ESJ, I’d expect if Labor scrape in with this one cabinet will be meeting regularly in Alice Springs.
Well Clare Martin is stuck on ABC1 unable to get away from the cameras and doesn’t look that happy.
Lord D @ 144
My recollection is that the final opinion polls for the Vic election in 1999 predicted a close result – but few believed it and the Libs were generally expected to win easily.
In a way it’s good to see that the bookies seem to be way off in this NT election. Perhaps this might puncture the myth that the bookies odds are the best guide to election results.
To be fair though – 5000 votes per seat means the personal factor is everything. It might not be a swing against the government as much as one or two unpersonable MP’s. Thats the beauty of NT politics I guess.
I have to say it is the NT. Like Kerry, no seat can be considered Safe in the NT. Very small population per seat.
Apologies to newcomers whose comments have been locked up in moderation.
William:
Those who undermined her have no business being in politics.
A bit strong, I’d venture although at least she kept talking in the third person to a minimum unlike the apparently re-elected incumbent:
The former fitter who took over the leadership in November said he slept well last night and was “absolutely committed” to staying in the top job.
“There are few years in Hendo yet,” he (Hendo) said.
What a tosser.
Paranoia moment. Given that Anderson has endorsed the intervention, reportedly hates and the CLP hasn’t run against her is there a chance they think they can woo her across if it would change the government?
Well it is not such a bad thing for the NT. The the loss and the thrashing the CLP received in the past seems to has cleared them out of their old nasties, made them humble and got them to restock.
They are not the same racist corrupt group they were. Even Terry Mills worrying about environmental issues for the LNGP plant. The previous CLP would have built it in the middle of the CBD if that is what it took. Probably what needs to happen on a Federal level too – the LNP get a thrashing next time around etc.
The independent Gerry Wood is already salivating and playing hard to get.
The outcome of the Territory election is in the balance with Labor losing four seats and the outcome hinging largely on the result in the Darwin seat of Fannie Bay.
Mr Wood would not say which party he would support if he holds the balance of power.
“I would give it the due consideration that Territorians would expect of me,” he said.
NT Independent ponders balance of power
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/09/2330040.htm
He’d be a mug if he did otherwise.
If it is 13-11 all it will take is one Labor rat or one Labor MP’s unhealthy eating habits to catch up with them – and “Hendo” will be off to the knackers.
Winston, yes that’s the difference. In Vic we had opinion polls, not in NT. Even in the final polls, Newspoll and Morgan both got it about right, but AC Nielson was garbage, predicting a 54-46 Coalition victory – similar to its problem in the last Fed election, when its final poll said 57-43 Labor.
Thomas Paine: “The the loss and the thrashing the CLP received in the past seems to has cleared them out of their old nasties, made them humble and got them to restock.”
Pity Dave Tollner has re-emerged from the undergrowth.
In the end the NT-wide 2PP vote is useless. The overall swing was about 8%, yet the first five seats on the pendulum look like falling, which the pendulum would’ve predicted would’ve required a 16% swing.
Also I reckon if the CLP just edges out the ALP you have to assume that MacDonnell and Arnhem would’ve given Labor a majority (maybe a moral majority!)
Could someone explain to me why there are two CLP candidates in Arafura? I don’t think I’ve seen such a situation in Australian elections before (of course, that’s not saying much, I haven’t been watching for long).
Does this tell us anything about how the Territorians, and more importantly the indigenous community, view the Intervention?
Diogenes perhaps they don’t like Laura Norda campaigns.
Agree with William, Diogenes.
To describe Woods as “already salivating and playing hard to get”, is a bit over the top.
Woods is taking the only sensible path available to him.
Does this tell us anything about how the Territorians, and more importantly the indigenous community, view the Intervention?
No.
is the 65.7% turnout in Fannie Bay correct? Is this normal for NT?
Maybe, but another factor is the Garma Festival which is on this weekend and the large number of absentee votes as the majority of the Indigenous voters would’ve voted at the booth there, and which will not be counted until Monday.
I hardly hear anyone mention the intervention up here. You wouldn’t know there was one from talking to a lot of the people. In fact it is hard to pick up on any issue that seems to have gotten people going. The low voter turn out indicates that people were not much interested in anything.
Maybe housing prices and high rentals? A fair bit of negative press along the way and of course Terry Mills comes over as nice genuine sort of a guy, calm and stable so people wouldn’t have been put off by him. But other than that you have to wonder if people are balancing the ledger of having a Federal Labor.
How come the counting for tonight is almost complete and they have not addressed the results in Arnhem (or whatever they have named that electorate since the redistribution)? How can I find out whether Malarndirri McCarthy has retained her seat? Rather bad coverage on the part of aunty!
At some stage the Wall-to-Wall Labor governments was going to end. If the ALP was to choose a State or Territory to lose, the NT would probably be the choice (the smallest population, the most difficult issues)
Fair enough. My apologies to Mr Wood. Although if I was him, I’d be salivating and playing hard to get. It’s an independent’s dream.
I’m just horrified the what we’re going to have to put up with from Shanahan etc if Labor loses. I can see it now. After 25 (?) successive state wins, Rudd’s election sets the scene for an unexpected Labor loss. A ringing endorsement of Howard’s intervention. Labor becoming arrogant and out of touch blah blah
I have to agree with the interviewer question to Henderson, the ALP ran a negative campaign that was off putting.
Henderson is conceding only Sanderson. His four seats in doubt are presumably Brennan, Port Darwin, Fong Lim and Fannie Bay. Given the large proportion of uncounted absent votes, this seems a fair call. Labor only needs one of the four to win 13 seats.
“But other than that you have to wonder if people are balancing the ledger of having a Federal Labor.”
If you accept that proposition (which is certainly a reasonable argument) then some voters would have been voting Labor locally to “balance the ledger” when Howard was in power.
185 – You’re not Dennis yourself?
185: Hah, Labor’s probally performed poorly enough for Shanahan to do that regardless of who wins.
If Labor retain government in the NT Dennis will be saying those things anyway.
The obvious solution is not to read the Liberal Party Press Organ aka The Australian.
James J – snap.
I was wondering when the voice of Pravda would show up.
Its a bad result for Labor – end of story. If you were Malcolm Turnbull you’d certainly be very encouraged at how politics is going to play out in 2010.
-Weakening economy
- Fed Govt takes the blame/ poor performance to date
- electorate does not appear to be enamoured of Labor
Strong/positive Liberal leadership – who knows what could happen eh?
ESJ, a nice attempt at spin, but you obviously don’t have much experience with Territory politics, it holds no lessons for the federal scene.
Does anyone know when absentee and postal votes are to be counted? Will counting resume tomorrow or on Monday?
I am actually unaware of any particular difference between the two parties that matters.
From my observation of the CLP they certainly don’t reflect the Federal Liberal party. I don’t see any weirdo right wingers etc. I suspect you could swap parties and not notice the difference.
That will do for tonight I think. Do recall that this is little more than a jumped-up shire council election and not worth a great deal of navel-gazing. See you all in Perth.
194 Edward – what are you on? No-one here has suggested anything other than that. However trying to predict the next Federal election result on this outcome is foolish to say the least.
According to Anthony Green, some postals were counted tonight, but the rest of the Postals, plus the absentees will be counted on Monday.
It is actually a great chance for renewal for NT labor with three ministers retiring at this election and three possibly losing tonight. The larger green vote than normal is also likely to lead to a reassessment of priorities too.
Or maybe Gary @ 188 Howard only stayed in power “to balance the ledger” with the Labor dominated states.
No – not really. Actually, I prefer to think that most voters can tell the difference between state and national elections.
GB, just me,
Not predicting the result of the next Federal poll, simply making the point if you were Turnbull and reading the portents for 2010 you would have to feel they were favourable.
One down one to go: Watch out Carps!
The only lesson in this election is if you replace a popular leader with a machine shoe-in – you get what’s coming to you. Oh – regards to ESJ.
203 Edward – I know I’m stating the obvious but the 2010 election is over two years away. Who knows what the circumstances will be then.
re counting – Thanks Frank. Just noticed that Drysdale has pre-polls and some postals counted. Seems Gunner in Fannie Bay is now out to a 47 vote lead (winning slightly on postals) as well.
204 The Dark Knight – the last time I looked the CLP hasn’t won yet and may not.
LOL!
Steve #178 (sorry you were in moderation so long), to quote from my election guide: “The Northern Territory is the last remaining jurisdiction where conservatives maintain their old custom of giving voters more than one endorsed candidate to choose from. Their nomination of Angie Seibert and Tristan Mungatopi in Arafura typifies the strategy, with Seibert to campaign in West Arnhem while Mungatopi covers the Tiwi Islands. “
As I said yesterday, Labor will lose a state/territory election eventually!
If it’s not this one, it may very well be WA on September 6.
A win is a win and tonight the ALP have won another Election! yes the CLP have made some gains but the ALP have been returned and as Adam points out the real action is in Perth!!
Yes well calling it in the middle of the Olympics is extremely cynical and may very be a too clever by half move, but they are still clear favourites to win.
More like a Dowding election the September poll I think.
213 Thanks William, it actually makes sense in that light.
Alan Carpenter should be a little concerned after Gippsland & now this result.
And after the Sanderson result, the WA Libs must be breathing a big sigh of relief that they are not stuck with Buswell.
Sure the ALP will lose an Election and while its a long way off but I’m starting to think Brumby might have a fight come 2010 and as we have discussed many times before Lemma in NSW in 2011 and while the polls look good Rudd will have a big fight to win in 2010 (should win it)
Gary #211 I know and isn’t it great! But I reiterate: Watch Out Carps!
William, Does Alan Carpenter have a Liberal brother or sister?
I don’t thinks so if this story re Buswel;l’s alleged “Victim” is anything to go by.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24153351-2761,00.html
220 The Dark Knight – how come sportingbet will still give you $4.50 for the WA opposition, I’d have thought if your theory was right they would have had your mates installed as raging favourites by now?
well steve the bookies were offering $10 for the CLP werent they?
Any price on a loser is not good,ESJ.
Exactly ESJ
This is the attitude which makes Federal politics irrelevant to Territory politics and vice versa.
Last time I looked ESJ, the bookies paid out on who was sworn into government, they don’t tend to pay out on hard luck stories.
All I can say Dark Night is that you are counting your chickens. This one hasn’t hatched yet let alone the WA one.
200
Thomas Paine
Agree completely. The difference between the ALP and the CLP in the Territory is minimal. ‘Conservative’ in the NT means something quite different to elsewhere in Australia, a fact I suspect most southerners have not grasped.
Looking at the number of votes involved, I am tempted to ask a different question – is it worth abolishing local councils in NT except for perhaps the Aboriginal communities? Many of these electorates are smaller than the average Council ward in eastern States. BCC wards are larger than the whole territory electorate!
No, we need sheltered workshops for failed MLAs.
Just Me
thats as realistic as saying there is no difference between th communists and Australian Greens
233
Not even close, ron.
The Greens result is worth a closer look, as the “4.1%” territory-wide result doesn’t really tell us anything.
In the seats that the Greens stood, namely Araluen (13.51%), Nightcliff (23.60%!), Port Darwin (15.60%), Braitling (14.82%), Daly (7.86%) and Greatorex (18.37%), Greens candidates received 2,736 of the 17,199 votes already counted (as of 10.30pm 9/8).
That’s an average of 15.91% – a very impressive result.
I also note that the Greens candidate in Braitling, Jane Clark, finished second – possibly resulting in a Greens/CLP 2CP seat (if the preferences from the conservative independent and ALP candidate flow her way). Another first for the Territory.
Communist & Australian Greens
or
CLP favoring a Uranium dump and Daly river development vs Labor opposing both
under the bed Ron
92% of Federal voters vote either Labor or Liberal , so they can clearly tell there is a difference between th 2 Parties
Its only th 8% Greens supporters who can not see a difference Being only 8% of th population on such a simple matter is damning of th objectivity of those 8%
So what will Shanahan’s monday .oz. story be ?
.
Voters turn on Labor , due to fears of Rudds ETS , or
Liberals return to th fold in expectaton of Cossie returning , or
Voters finally turn to Shanahans’s advise
Great logic there Ron.
It would also appear that those “8%” (source?) have a much better understanding of the virtues of preferential voting than you.
I’m happy to be with th 92% of th population , 8% is about th ‘rational’ CC deniers percentage
With regards to the low turnout, there are a number of aspects being considered
1) Confusion with the electoral distribution which was only completed 6 weeks before the election meaning many voters turned up at regular booths to find they were in a different electorate., to be resolved by absetee ballots in the next week.
2) A failure in advertising of the poll and/or a failure of registered citizens to fulfill their voting obligations as a factor of the short duration (19 days – with a two day window for voter registration and two public holidays) of the campaign.
3) The general flow of voters in and out of the electorate which can be quite significant in the NT, meaning some voters werent registered at their address.
One recurring theme being recognised is the disenfranchisement of eligible voters because of the undue haste of the election.
It may be expected that a challenge to the result in a close seat like Fannie Bay may be on the cards if the final bill is much less than 80% of the eligible electorate.
Rohan
#235
“The Greens result is worth a closer look, as the “4.1%” territory-wide result doesn’t really tell us anything.”
Yes it does , it means australian Greens actualy got 4.1% of th ACTUAL NT vote
.
You can not then cherry pick only th seats Greens THEMSELVES chose to stand in , and ignore th ones Greens themselves chose NOT to stand in because they knew there vote would be small , and xclaimm a cer impressive result
Hell , Labor could cherry pick too , take th 13 seats it may hav won , and average th vote won just in those ALP seats won , a very impressive result would show
Then th CLP could do th exercise but only on there probable 11 seats they won ,
and th CLP would also show a very imprssive result
So now we hav all parties had a very impressive result
Reality is Clare Martin dumping was dumb & done by novices and may hav been a factor , but as most storys predicted a big Labor win this looks like a ‘protes against a landslide’ vote Landslide predictions & storys usualy encourages voters to make a ‘protest’ vote not expectng to or reely wanting to toss Labor out Wonder if having a Fed Labor govt was also a facotor Swings hav to go somewhere so they went CLP & some Greens Th electon in WA will be more revealing
There have been a lot of posts on this blog forecasting all sorts of wild results for the ALP. I go back to previous messages; get your head out of your ass and look at reality. The CLP were never going to win (came closer than I even predicted) but were never going to lose by the margin predicted by those who can’t differentiate between logic and blind allegiance.
Looks like the silent majority shocked all.
The biggest winner of tonight would have to be Peter Styles. This is a man who has never, never, never, never given up. First stood for election over 10 years ago, was rejected by his electorate, by his party, yet kept on going. Former CLP President Suzanne Cavanagh, to her shame, did everything she could to undermine this guy. Where the hell is she these days!
He is a tough man who will be hard for the ALP to crack.
John
#244
“The CLP were never going to win (came closer than I even predicted) but were never going to lose by the margin predicted by those who can’t differentiate between logic and blind allegiance.”
Who ar you refferring to ? My post to Stewart J #166 on previuos NT thread predicted Labor 15 seats , ie. an anti Labor swing & most posters here I think did think similar , holding 19 out of 24 is unusal anywhere
Why would anyone extrapolate from a state/territory election to the next federal election when the latest newspoll figures show a thumping win to Labor if a federal election were to be held right now? I’m still predicting that the ALP will gain seats in 2010.
Obviously not you Ron, but those who have dominated this chat talking Green politics and even predicting an ALP win in Katherine were talking about what they wanted rather than what would happen.
Don’t make me go back and find them, they are there.
What role do you think NT Labor’s opposition to the Intervention played in this?
I have not seen or heard many people talk about the intervention in Darwin that much and, only then in a matter of fact detached way. It is not a big an issue as people might imagine, since it is a complicated multi-faceted issue to the local it is hard for anyone to say this or that is wrong.
For the locals it was not an issue influencing the vote. If anything at the time people were a bit cynical that it was a Howard election ploy and usurped Martin and Labors planned actions.
I think most Territorians just want some answers and action. They are sick of the arge bargy of black/white fella politics and just want some logical solutions. Most would see the intervention as a good thing.
I didn’t see it as a big factor in the vote, either way
Was it the NT election that the big punter placed the $100,000 bet on the ALP? If so he wouldn’t be sleeping too well tonight.
John
#248
“Obviously not you Ron, but those who have dominated this chat talking Green politics…”
Oh Green politcs , yep th 8% of Green voters who cann’t tell th difference betwween Labor and Liberal parties , whereas th other 92% can seee a big difference and so vote one or th other Guess Katherine was winable if no CLP voters voted
.
Th PRO CLP Intervention policy i thought may be only a lite factor Perhaps we hav for first time in ‘oz’ a US type “Bradley Factor” Its a theory suported/disputed in USA and applies to US black candidates where voters do not talk about there uncomfortable ‘black’ feelings for fear of being called a racism , and then lie to pollsters saying they’ll vote for th black candidate , but in secrecy of ballot box vote with there secret feelings against th black candidate How would one know if its rubbish , such theories ar hard to rebut
I’m not in touch with the redneck element but I have had the feeling for a while that the generation of strong emotions with regard to Aboriginals and Aboriginal issues one way or another ended with the CLP demise from power. One good thing about the demise of the CLP and LNP is the removal of racism from electioneering.
There are no doubt those that were motivated that way but it is simply not noticeable, even in private.
My explanation for the swing is that:
The old CLP is distant enough now that people no longer hold distaste for them; Terry Mills as leader is actually the opposite of the old CLP character;
Thus the pendulum’s huge swing last time comes back to center.
Consistent negative press has tainted the ALP over time;
The ousting of Martin for no particular reason;
Henderson being relatively new in the job hadn’t really connected;
Higher living, housing and rental costs;
Sound growing economy giving people confidence to change;
People assumed Labor would win so voted CLP to give some opposition;
Basically people saw the CLP under Mills as a different more human party and the ALP a party lacking a personal connection (Martin gone).
Now would the CLP have won if they hadn’t come out and threatened public service jobs? Probably cost them Fannie Bay maybe.
IMHO
It also seems that negative politicing aka Howard, GOP and the ALP this time no longer works that well, if at all. People have become so familiar with it and so suspicious of pollies they are rejecting the negative approach.
They will have to be more sublime in the negative campaigns in the future – no doubt we will follow the next GOP lead on that.
Thanks Ron
great comment…just not sure what you are tryinmg to say.
Funny about tonight. The winners are losers and the losers are winners. Reminds me of the Sneddon comment “while we didn’t win, we didn’t lose either”.
244
John Says:
There have been a lot of posts on this blog forecasting all sorts of wild results for the ALP. I go back to previous messages; get your head out of your ass and look at reality. The CLP were never going to win (came closer than I even predicted) but were never going to lose by the margin predicted by those who can’t differentiate between logic and blind allegiance.
We are all geniuses with the benefit of hindsight, John. Might be worth pointing out that virtually nobody, including the ‘professionals’, predicted anything like this outcome. So I think that us amateurs on this site are entitled to a little slack.
To your credit, you did call it 13-11-1 for the ALP, which is looking pretty good at the moment.
However, getting it right once is no big achievement, you could have just fluked it, even a stopped clock is right twice a day. So unless you successfully predict election outcomes at a rate far above the average pundit, I respectfully suggest get off your high horse. I am prepared to bet you have got it seriously wrong before, more than once, and will do so again.
Lastly, I am hardly a blindly allegiant Labor party diehard. I have changed my vote before, more than once, and will no doubt do so again.
248
John Says:
even predicting an ALP win in Katherine were talking about what they wanted rather than what would happen.
Don’t know if you are referring to me, but if you are then you might wanna get your facts straight. I didn’t predict a Labor win in Katherine, just said that it could be interesting seat to watch (because there was a popular independent preferencing Labor), and that the CLP couldn’t take it for granted this time. Hardly a fantasy land prediction.
Ben Raue @ 103,
I don’t know about the northern suburbs being reduced in electoral importance. They do remain one obstacle between the CLP and government.
244 “Looks like the silent majority shocked all.”
By probably returning Labor to power when you say yourself,
‘The CLP were never going to win (came closer than I even predicted) but were never going to lose by the margin predicted by those who can’t differentiate between logic and blind allegiance.’
Who is shocked? The Labor Party who have probably won or the CLP who have probably lost. The margin is immaterial, the bookies will pay up whether the win is one seats or the lot. The Government will be formed whether the ALP win by one seat or 25 seats.
The only people in shock seem to be CLP supporters for reasons unclear but apparently associated with some delusion that running last in a two horse race means they can now take over the known universe. Good luck with that theory.
i suppose this just proves that the old Nifty Wran was absolutely right when he said that: “You have to feel that an election is coming on”, otherwise a premature rejection will happen.
William, have you ever done a post on elections like Victoria’s 1988 one – where it looks like a government can smell economic trouble in the air and goes to the polls to get reelected before the extent of it is known? I suspect WA and NT have an element of this, getting back in before it gets too much worse.
What’s better than beating the conservatives by a massive margin?
Ron, it’s obviously correct to say that the Greens got 4.1% of the vote, but that one number in isolation is not very informative.
Last time the Greens ran in 14 seats and got 3.9%. This time they ran in six seats and got 4.1%. The four seats they contested both times got an average pro-green swing of 6%. Their best result was 23.6% (+8.4) which I’m thinking puts it in the top 10 Green results at a State election.
d
Gary # 263. I know I know. Beating them with a narrow margin.
Darn
Centrebet said a lady from WA bet $50,000 on NT Labor at $1.10 two days ago.
While it is clear that there were many drivers for the swing, amongst it all, I trust this will serve as a lesson to parties who tolerate sexual harassers and to the harassers themselves. Voters don’t like this particular form of abuse of power. Congratulations to the woman concerned for sticking to her guns.
I hope that the WA voters now give their serial offender the same sort of treatment.
Diogenes, the interesting thing with the WA election is that the latest polls with a small sample size are tipping a tory win. Sportingbet won’t have a bar of this and have labour 1.18 and tories 4.40.
Re #263 & 265: don’t be so hasty, gentlemen!
Looking at the detail of the results for Fannie Bay, you’d have to say that there is still a possibility that this election will come down to a choice by the Independent, Gerry Wood, to decide the Government.
At the 2005 election, Clare Martin did slightly better out of the combined pre-poll, postal, absent and declaration votes for Fannie Bay than she did with the regular votes cast in the electorate booths on election day. Put that down, perhaps, to name recognition when the voter doesn’t always have how-to-vote literature.
This time round, the pre-poll votes split exactly 159 each for Labor & CLP, marginally worse than the 51% Labor got at the booths yesterday. The 46 postal votes counted last night went 24 to 22 in favour of Labor (52.2%).
At the last election there were 166 postals, 543 absent votes (ie where the voter turns up at a polling booth outside the electorate) and 20 declaration votes (where the voter is not on the roll and casts a vote later admitted to the count). If you assume the same total of postal, absent & declaration votes this time, then the CLP needs to get about 54.2% of the remaining votes to win Fannie Bay. Not out of the question at all.
269 canberra – I didn’t imply Labor has won. My point is if it does it is sweeter than winning by a large margin.
On the huge discrepancy between the betting market and the actual result, it’s probably just another example of the truism that our opinions are only as good as our information.
Without good polls etc, we had crappy information and formed a crappy opinion.
steve
Centrebet and Sportingbet are both still offering very generous odds on WA Libs. William has an article at Crikey, published before the NT vote, saying that the Libs are a good bet at those odds. I think William has remained “ahead of the curve”.
255
Thomas – If the ALP does hold Fannie Bay – and wins the election – I hope you are right about it being being because of the the attack by the CLP on public servants. Conservative politicians and their supporters often seem to forget that public servants are mostly modestly paid, hard working people with families to feed like everyone else. And they do a good job delivering a range of important services to the people. They do not deserve to be singled out as a convenient punching bag by self serving politicians.
One of those elections where undecided voters broke strongly one way: consider Vic in 1999, SA in 1979. Vote has fallen CLP’s way as Labor would have a clear 2PP majority if all seats had been contested, still a good CLP performance. Did high Green vote reflect disillusionment with Labor on the left? Would Martin have had more appeal to these voters? The argument that incumbency is crucial in NT politics looks to be refuted by this and the last 2 polls. Contra Adam the NT LA now looks more like a normal parliament than a shire council of permanent members.
I watched 20 minutes of The Insiders this morning. First time i’ve tuned in since the Nov election.
I don’t think i’ll bother again until maybe the next election.
What a bunch of washed up old windbags.
#262
Beattie was a master at this, 2001 and 2006.
NSW, although it has fixed terms, would have been very happy the election date was 2007 rather than this year.
Bracks in Vic 2002 went a full year early, one of the first possible dates for election, and romped it in.
I don’t think going early benefits the opposition unless they are already credible- and can play the “They’re running scared of us, what are they hiding from?” card. If the opposition is unelectable (as in QLD, or in Victoria 2002), a government can do what they like and nobody cares.
I admit I was shocked as to the swing against the NT Labor Government after keeping up to date with it last night. If it ends up being a hung parliament – I guess we could start to see the beginning of the cycle back to Qld 1998 [I know this was an odd example but it still remains] or more over Vic 1999 or SA 2002… the questions would be- would the independents back the minority Labor Governments as opposed to Liberal/National/LNP/CLP [all the same really] Governments? I always thought that the first two to fall would be WA this year [until I caught a sniff of changing winds] but still reckon it might or definitely NSW 2011. I think this will be the election that marks where politics is heading in the following few years re: the rise of the independents with both Labor and Liberals becoming indistinguishable. [Also NSW to watch for Greens in Marrickville if they can finally break through and get a lower house seat at a general election {Excluding Tassie}].
I still reckon Labor will get their one seat majority, making that punter sweat for every dollar of their bet, but it will be interesting to see how the election next time will occur and if the CLP will break back into any Labor Federal seats come 2010-2011. Perhaps the CLP can start asking their new MPs to help pay the debt off, since they already asked the whole of the NT anyway.
Although, with this result in NT, I think Labor under Stanhope are in serious trouble in ACT. I would like to see the odds on that one as I hear Labor down there is probably in more trouble than Labor in NT seemed to have been by the media.
Politics_Obsessed: Not going to happen. *Really* not going to happen.
The ALP here in the ACT are looking a bit tired, and they’ve had a few controversial issues, but the Liberals here are in the worst shape of anywhere in Australia, now that the Qld Libs are no more; it’s only been eight months since they had to expel the Shadow Treasurer, Richard Mulcahy, to try and end three years of very public internecine factional bloodshed. Until that happened, they’d had two blocs of three members who were not on speaking terms, were blasting each other through the press, and in one case was taking legal action against the other one; with poor old Bill Stefaniak holding the balance between the two.
The Greens may win an extra couple of seats, if the Senate results from ‘07 is anything to go by (plus the fact that the leader in the Assembly, Deb Foskey, who cannot handle the media to save herself, is retiring and being replaced by a much better candidate); the independent mayor of Queanbeyan is a big chance to pick up a seat; Labor might also win Mulcahy’s seat, which should be a Liberal one. That’s it. Zero chance of the Libs winning government; I’d bet my house on it if I had one.
Rebecca,
Likely ALP will lose their majority though. Which could be portrayed as a loss to some degree.
Ron
You have used the 8% analogy again. I do not think this is reasonable. If you look at federal elections going back over 20 years there has been a decline in the combined vote of the major parties. Yes, at the last election this decline was slightly reversed, but still only 80% of voters voted ALP or Liberal. People exercised their votes in voting Green, Democrat, National, Family First, Hanson etc, or were informal. And I don’t believe you can discount the informal vote (or non-attendance either) as people who are somehow supporting the current major parties.
So the Greens polled 8% federally – this doesn’t mean that support or approval of the policies is restricted to those 8%. I actually know many ALP voters who are supportive of Green policies but vote Green ‘2′ because they either believe they have to vote for one of the two major parties (and need to stop the Liberals being elected) or want to have an impact on the policies of the ALP (and thus consider being more involved). Again, maybe I know people who are more accutely engaged than other electors, but this also extends to people with a more peripheral interest in politics.
Now, I’m not saying the Greens are about to win government – far from it – but the manner in which you discount voter intention is problematic. Considering our previous discussions, it would appear from the results that the Greens going ‘open’ in respect of preference direction did not massively damage the party in respect of winning votes, although I equally acknowledge that the Daly result would seem to indicate that it may have depressed an otherwise good result. From my (very) rough calculations, Green preferences seemed to flow to the ALP around 65%-70% – which is very different from the 80%-90% at the last federal election when the Greens DID preference the ALP.
Indeed, if absentees and postals do not bring up the turnout I’d also suggest that people have voted with their feet in respect of their attitude towards formal government in the NT. Whether that’s a reflection of cynicism or just not getting to the polls I leave for pollsters and the NTEO to try and figure out – does anyone know if any company/university/EC conducts any polling of this kind? I would half assume that an inquiry by the NTEO would include a survey of people who did not vote as why they did not vote, but I don’t know. And I am counting this separately from the ‘please explain’ letters that would normally be sent out.
I agree with both Rebecca (#278) & Darryl (#279) on the impending ACT election. Labor will become a minority government, having offended a number of people over their two terms. But the Liberals here are a complete laughing stock. It’s likely that Labor will lose seats to the Greens.
The last term of majority government was a decidedly abnormal outcome given the electoral system and numbers of seats in the Legislative Assembly.
281 Agreed. the ALP have been pretty shocking, but I can’t see a 30s something bloke called Zed winning – espeically as their policies smack of the lets pretend we have a bottomless pit of money type.
Definitely a minority govt and possibly a liberal one.
If labor and liberals are tied on seats and libs have achieved the majority of votes who will the greens support.
May even have the former lib Mulcahy and that indendant mayor holding the balance.
Labor is on the nose and has done so many back flips, twists and turns due to the approaching election that they should have been on the olympic gymnists team.
One of their blokes Barr, has the same smirky smirk as King Smirk, he has tried hard to get rid of it, but was still there plain as anything when he was announcing school closures. He will be lucky to hold his seat.
Labor to lose at least 2 seats, probably 3, libs to get 7.
The article doesn’t add much to the sum total of knowledge, but the headlines is a cracker.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/ufospotting-chicken-farmer-could-claim-balance-of-power-20080810-3sx4.html
Stewart @ 280,
Why do you think the informals and non-voters would be more favourably disposed to minor parties than the formal voters? Or have I misunderstood you?
In a way Labor is probably lucky to have had the near-miss in NT, rather than a more comfortable victory.
It’s only human nature to become complacent after a sequence of victories such as Labor had up to Nov 2007. If WA Labor have any brains they’ll now realise that the upcoming election is an important contest, against the best (?least bad?) leader WA Libs can put up, and that it needs to be taken seriously. Moreover the Nov 2007 Fed result in WA shows the Libs are, in some senses, far from a spent force there.
At least that’s what I’d be saying to Labor if it was a football team, and I was the coach.
Dyno @ 285
I’m suggesting that informals and non-voters may equally be seen to be expressing a political opinion, admittedly much harder to define than those that just number the boxes. Potentially, in not voting, they are giving an opinion on ALL political parties (and perhaps the political process?).
Consider the effect when there is a by election for a leader who resigns after losing an election. While there may be a rise in the votes for minor parties etc there can also be a rise in non-voting. This can be partly explained by the lack of absentee’s, but equally we hear of voters being annoyed at having to go back to the polls so quickly, ‘ annoyed that the MP didn’t stay the full term etc. If the turnout is really only going to be down to 75% in some electorates in the Territory this makes me wonder – some may be roll inaccuracies (from the transient nature of roll and people not being prepared for the election), but that wouldn’t seem to explain it all.
In the context of minor vs major parties it does mean you can’t say 92% of the electorate have endorsed the major parties when potentially only 70% have (and in some seats less than that).
Yeah Rebecca I admit seeing Zed’s face on front of the paper about his dual-carriageway road promise – did look scary. I can’t remember if it was Piping Shrike or someone else that did a comparison on the ages of all the Labor and Liberal leaders across the country. Zed’s the second youngest for memory. But from people I know down there [yes I'm not a territorian] most say they are really off put by Labor. I agree with Rod at #283 about all the back flips.
I’m just saying after this “”shock”" election result – that ACT Labor would seem more vulnerable than they currently seem. I’m thinking Labor 8 or 9 seats. I don’t think they’ll go backwards to 7. I reckon the Liberals will hold on 7- with one independent and one Greens. [As much as the Greens talked last election about getting 2 seats - I really can't seem them pulling through this time. I could very well be mistaken... I reckon it'll be close to two seats - but as discussed previously on this site - CC is now "dominated" by the majors and have seem to be quiet down in ACT since the last election.] It’ll be hard for them to break through -although – if Labor really does botch their campaign- I wouldn’t put it past the Greens. Stanhope, from what I hear, still has a lot of respect from the ACT popular [esp after the anti-terrow laws fiasco] and that might carry Labor through this time.
populace* not popular
Rod: It’ll almost definitely be a minority government in the ACT, but there really is zero chance of a Liberal one. They’ll be lucky if they can regain Mulcahy’s seat; I would be extremely surprised if they picked up any new seats.
There’s also virtually no chance of Mulcahy being re-elected – he has no profile outside of his factional shenanigans, and he makes Genghis Khan look like a communist in a place where that doesn’t go down real well. A much more likely outcome: back to minority government, with the Greens (and Pangallo if he gets elected) holding the balance of power, as in basically ever election before 2004.
Barr isn’t in much danger either. Two years ago, after the school closures stuff, I’d have said he was gone, but it seems to be largely forgotten outside of those affected, the civil unions stuff didn’t do him any harm, and he’s being seriously talked about as the next Chief Minister.
Politics_Obsessed: I think the Greens getting two seats is a strong possibility. The retirement of hard-left Labor MLA Wayne Berry in Ginninderra has left the last “death” seat there back open; until Mary Porter miraculously won it for Labor in 2004 (thus handing them majority government), it had always been held by minor parties. The Greens previously held it 1996-98 before their member retired and they lost it to an independent, and then to the Dems; with the Senate results and the on-the-noseness of Labor, I think they have a good shot of getting back. As for Stanhope…I think he’s taken a pounding in the popularity stakes this term, but he’s still more considerably more popular than Zed Seselja.
anyone know what the 2PP result is?
The Legislative Assembly in the ACT should be expanded to 21 seats (3 seven-member electorates).
Then the Greens may get 3 or even four seats.
Politics and Rebecca
Interesting result in ACT would be labor 7, lib 7, Pangallo, Mulcahy and 1 greens.
Who would form govt, especially if libs got more primary votes.
Rod: It might be an interesting theoretical, but it’s not going to happen. The seventh seat in Molonglo is going to be an all-out battle between the Liberals, Labor and Pangallo; Mulcahy isn’t even in the running.
I know folks from interstate seem to be enthralled by the prospect, but perhaps I need to repeat this: really, there is absolutely no chance that the Libs here are even going to come close to victory. It’s a naturally Labor territory, the Libs are in the worst state of any conservative party in the country and the government isn’t that unpopular. I might remind people that the only Liberal leader to actually win an election in the ACT was Kate Carnell, who was both well to the left of and way more charismatic and well-liked than any of the current Liberal caucus.
The current standings in the Assembly are 9-6-1(Green)-1(Mulcahy). The only seat which I suspect Labor might be in serious danger of losing is the open seat in Ginninderra, which is probably more likely to go to the Greens than anyone else, but could go to the Liberals. The second question is the fate of Richard Mulcahy’s seat – he ain’t going to win it, but it could go to Pangallo or either Liberal or Labor. For those dreaming about Labor equalling the Liberals in seats, where the heck do you think those seats are going to come from?
Looking at the outstanding result for the NT Greens,
and hysterical behaviour of Labour Party hacks in the lead up,
could some have been privy to private polling.
Lets see if we can extrapolate my theory across to the WA election
Judge,
Why is it a good result for the greens? 4.1% of the vote and only 0.2% swing?
Darryl, they only fielded candidates in six seats: 13.5 per cent in Araluen, 14.8 per cent in Braitling, 7.9 per cent in Daly, 18.4 per cent in Greatorex, 23.6 per cent in Nightcliff, 15.6 per cent in Port Darwin.
Pseph at 291
The 2PP is 52.5/47.5 CLP/ALP
but that is a bit skewiff as the two uncontested electorates need to be added in at 65/35 or so ALP/CLP which is what they would have gone.
Thanks William. That sounds much more impressive.
SENIOR federal ministers have cautioned against reading too much into the Northern Territory election result, but warn that next month’s Western Australian poll will also be tough for Labor.
NT swing ‘nothing to do with Rudd’
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24156638-12377,00.html
Thanks William,
Hi Darrly, its easy to over look the fantastic achievements of The Greens across Australia when the MSM in cahoots with the LIB/LAB, 2PP Club, fail to acknowledge The Green.
An example is the electoral body in NT still calling LIB/LAB as 2PP when the Green are clearly the 2nd party,here:-
http://notes.nt.gov.au/nteo/Electorl.nsf/d5f7a15849ae6dd9692564e40011c8ba/0e029fe8eceb7fb5692574a100017628?OpenDocument
Some perspective on The Greens position here:-
http://greens.org.au/
Have the greens ever run ahead of the ALP before?
The comparisons of the NT election with those of the larger states’ LGA elections is appropriate.
With just 217k people compared to for example Blacktown City with 287k any attempt to extrapolate the result is silly.
On that point William are you going to set up a thread for NSW LGA electiosn which are going to happen state wide on 13/9?
My mail is that NSW is waiting Mo Io and the ALP with baseball bats and will relish this opportunity to get their retaliation in first.
That set of results will be worth talking about since they will show if the Lib/Nats have any cred in NSW or whether the INDs and GRNs will be the real winners.
Thanks Rod and Rebecca for your informed opinions.
I agree it’ll be a minority government – and I guess it’ll make Labor work hard again like they did in their first term. I wonder how the Democrats death Calculator is going?
Darryl… was trying to find the data on the Cunningham By-election but Adam Carr’s site doesn’t want to load that page.
So I’d have no idea… have to wait for those more astute and knowledgeable on the matter.
That’s the other thing WA and ACT have in common is independents that have resigned from parliament from the majors. Interesting to see Liz Constable put in a shadow ministerial position… perhaps a copy of what Mike Rann did with the sole National Member in the lower house of SA? Would these independents stay that way or conform back to the parties?
Also, after the WA election – who do we reckon will hold BOP in the upperhouse? Still the Greens or perhaps a combo Greens/Family First? Possibly Green/Nat?
Darryl,
Yes in 2002 bi-election for the federal seat of Cunningham NSW,
springs to mind.
well albert…. most ‘independents’ in council elections are major party members anyways and can hide behind that… for example my Local Mayor… ‘No Show’ Nick Berman… elected as ‘independent’ Mayor for Hornsby Shire Council, yet jumped at the first opportunity to be a Liberal candidate at the 2007 State Election. [His attempts at first the state seat of Hornsby and then the state seat of Epping were both thwarted. Thank goodness they were.] Speaking of which… would Lord Mayor Clover Moore stick it around for another term of Lord Mayor? The workload she must have must be huge for now. Surely taking it’s toll?
I think Darryl means running ahead of the ALP on primaries.
Yes, we have. We came 2nd in Vaucluse and North Shore in the 2007 NSW election. But like Alice Springs, these seats are in strong Liberal areas without much Labor presence.
Good catch Darryl! I don’t think the Greens have ever outpolled the ALP except Cunningham in 2002, but that was only at the final 2pp count (52.23 grn v 47.77 alp). Primaries were 23.03 v 38.13.
Cunningham results are at: http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/supplementary_by_elections/cunningham/results.htm
d
Speaking of Green/Ind dynamics – just took a quite look at election night results for nightcliff [mentioned earlier by another person in the post] and braitling…
In Nightcliff – The Greens effectively garnered the swing against Labor and had it for themselves [a little off the independent not being there this time] and the CLP swing towards them was from the independent from the previous election not standing this time. I guess you could try to analyse that as Labor voters who were fed up going to the Green side, but that’s very general and would have to look at all the results. Some credit seems to be there for that theory. [Also - how well the Greens do with other independents in the field....]
Which brings me to Braitling, the Greens managed, so far, to be ahead of labor and the independent candidate. I think that is a solid effort for the Greens, but an open seat due to retirement of the sitting member, also being an independent, might skewer analyse on this seat. Nevertheless a good result for the Greens.
Listen to Ben, not me :^)
d
Results for historical Cunningham bi-elettion, ALP defeat, link here:-
http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/supplementary_by_elections/cunningham/results.htm
Politics_Obsessed
I was in Cunningham electorate at the time. From memory Greens only got 23% primary to about 42% ALP. Greens home on labour council independent preferences who got about 20% primary + other independents prefs.
Does anyone know of a pendulum for ACT? (multiple ones I guess). My out come is:
Brindabella 3-2 (maybe 2-3)
Molonglo 3-2
Ginninderra 3-3-1 (3rd lib seat could ind)
most likely ALP 9 Lib 7 Grn 1
Best case for libs ALP 8 Lib 8 Grn 1 – still a minority ALP govt
RE 312 above swap molonglo for ginninderra
Can anyone tell me if the Greens actually won anything apart from bragging rights about how many feral ratbags there are in the NT?
Ben Raue -
When are you people going to put up a decent candidate in Port Jackson or whatever its called now?
Albert Ross
True, the Local government election will be a key milestone. If Labor loses badly that will set the scene for 2011 AND if there is any move going to happen it will happen after the poll and electricity privatisation – ideally if Labor is going to change leaders they will want to do it before Christmas.
GG,
It was the metrosexuals who nearly did “hendo” in.
The Greens have won your attention GG
The judge,
My attention is about as valuable as a used condom in a knock shop.
My opinion, now that’s another thing indeed.
Of course, the problem with NSW LGA elections is that the Libs have traditionally not run “formally” in these elections.
As such, any baseball bats directed at Iemma will probably result in some random independents and/or Greens controlling councils. That said, the size differential between some councils (see Strathfield v Hornsby or Ku-rin-gai) is so staggeringly huge that it’s hard to say whether a consistent statement is being made across the state..
ESJ,
WTF are metrosexuals and how do they do on country trips? I just hope this result is not the “Priscilla Queen of the Desert” Libs flexing their muscles.
Getting lazy and haven’t looked through all the postings on this site but has TPP count been done for the NT election and if so how does it compare with the TPP for the November Federal election for the seats in the NT. The comparison between the two would IMO give a better idea of the swing away from labour than the swing compared with the previous NT election. I notice the Deputy Leader of the Opposition is trumpeting very loudly the swing of 9% but unless this is the swing compared with the last Federal election her claims are somewhat baseless.
GG,
Would the time and attention you give to The Greens
be equal to the attention you give to used condom or knock shops
or both?
the judge,
Are you asking me, “Have I stopped fuc**king over the Greens?”
LOL GG 320.
The Liberal party has always done a fine line in Queens.
@319
The Liberals have certainly traditionally not run ‘formally’ in many NSW councils, but it is a tradition which has eroded. For example, Woollahra Council used to be run by Liberals organised in the ‘Woollahra Action Committee’ and the Liberals in the City of Sydney used to call themselves ‘Civic Reform’, but the Liberals now contest elections in both those councils under the Liberal name. I am sure the Liberals now run under that name in most if not all urban LGAs, although the pattern may well be different in rural areas.
Realistically the 2PP for the Fed election and for the NT election cant be compared at the micro-seat level when considering the large local member factor.
eg..
In November 2007 at Moulden, Damian Hale (ALP) got 57% of the vote (340 out of 600)
In August 2008 Terry Mills (CLP) got 58% of the vote (450 out of 780)
Broadly however, 2PP at the Fed was 50.2/49.8 ALP/CLP, and for the state election it is 52.5/47.5 (not including the two seats without a contest)
Enjaybee,
Your question about comparing 2PP figures from 2007 Federal figures for NT with yesterday’s preliminary figures was sufficiently interesting to entice me to do some rough numbers.
Some-one in the thread has indicated that the 2PP figure (so far) is 52.5/47.5 (Labor/CLP).
The comparative figure for the combined two federal seats (my calculations of Antony Green’s figures) is 55.6/44.4.
The point has also been made in the thread that the two non-contested seats would have improved Labor’s 2PP figure across the Territory. My guess is that is worth something less than half a per cent to the aggregate, so that the notional figure becomes 52.9/47.1 (for yesterday). So the swing compared to the Federal election, which was the basis of your question seems to be about 3% to the CLP.
In the course of doing these numbers, I looked up the 2005 figures from the NT Electoral Commission, which give turn-out figures at 80% across the Territory, ranging from 64%-89% in individual electorates. Turn-out (estimated late in the count, but not complete) in the Federal election was 92% in Solomon, and 81% in Lingiari.
@315
(’Port Jackson or whatever its called now’)
Balmain
Dartboard at 326
In other words, if I’m interpreting you correctly, as a rough comparison and I know its only rough, there was actually a swing to the ALP of 2% by NT Voters compared with the Federal election.
Dartboard, 50.2% was the figure for Solomon only. Lingiari was 61.2% 2PP, which is how I arrive at 55.6% for the whole Territory.
Your point about incumbency (with special relevance to the NT Assembly) is of course critical to any comparison of this sort.
Enjaybee
By using that measure of account, then there was an 8% swing away from the ALP at the Federal election from the previous Territory election…
Also Hendo sounds like a most unimpressive leader? Another reason the comparison might not mean too much.
The NT election result will come down to whether in the next approximate 600-700 absentee and postal votes, the existing 57 vote margin is maintained.
CLP will need between 53 and 55% of the remaining votes (currently having about 49.5%) to take the seat and probably a minority government.
and of course.. Im talking about Fannie Bay..
301 judge: That’s actually rather odd. There’s four candidates, so it isn’t immediately clear who would have come second (independent and Green were pretty much neck and neck on primary vote), but it is obvious who would NOT have: the ALP candidate, who came last. If I’m understanding this correctly, he would have been eliminated and his votes distributed among the other three, so the final 2CP result would have been either CLP/Ind or CLP/Green. Of course, the CLP guy got more than 50% of primary vote, so it’s kinda academic, but it is a little rude to whoever actually did come second. Antony Green’s page on the ABC site has it as CLP/ALP as well.
Judge @ 301 and Bird of Paradox @335: The notional two-party counts are necessarily conducted before the Electoral Office can be sure who has come first and second. The procedure is that each individual booth counts primary votes first, and then conducts a two-party count based on the pre-determined candidates deemed most likely to come first and second. Each booth does this without any knowledge of what’s going on at other booths, so that a clear picture of the election outcome can be produced as quickly as possible. I remember that in Wentworth at the 2004 election the AEC wrongly guessed that the top two candidates would be Malcolm Turnbull and the independent Peter King, who in fact finished third behind Labor. The notional two-candidate count has no formal standing: the “proper” preference count is not conducted until all the votes are in, with candidates eliminated and their preferences distributed in turn.
hurray the Libs are actually doing well in an election, how long has it been since that last happened…three cheers for the top enders
However the CLP will likely shoot itself in the foot after this. A few weeks before the election a few of the 4 only CLP MPs revealed they would probably challenge for the leadership after the election.
Assuming that this isn’t a CLP minority govt with Woods.
I believe that it is the face of Terry Mills people want to see front the CLP leadership, it is certainly what it needs. Can the ego’s of the others be controlled? We have Tollner and Elfrink back who would be considered more senior given both were in a government at one stage or other ( and we already saw Tollner talking over the top of Mills on camera before the election and, he wasn’t even elected).
Tollner will have to contain his tendency to boofheadery and retract his standing on Workchoices. And will he try for the Federal seat again?
It will only take some ego competitions within the CLP to ruin some of their gains.
Henderson may have to go at some stage but, who to replace him? Kon Vatskalis was dropped from a ministry some time ago but was a more likable and personable person but, will be seen as too weak to be leader. Delia Lawry probably the most strong candidate to replace him – but does have an arrogance issue and, I know of one case where she treated a ‘non-commissioned’ worker with very little respect.
She may be the smartest one of the bunch and a good performer in her portfolios so far. Handled estimates committee fronting for both Treasury and Lands very well.
The ALP will need to find some decent candidates if they want to win the next election and of course they need some sort of profile. They may try to lure Michael Long and or Charlie King into politics. Both would win just about any seat hands down.
Oh Dear, the Curious Snail has been supping on the entrails of the NT election to the point of believing there own propaganda about an early Queensland election. This despite being told many times over the past week that the election will be held at the end of next year.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24157437-952,00.html
With regard to the CLP leadership…
I would suggest that with Dave Tollner just ahead in Fong Lim and Gary Lambert needing after the day counting to win, neither has the type of mandate that would show that their personal appeal would extend to gaining the leadership.
Both will be grateful to be in parliament let alone being the leader.
I would be more interested in the thoughts of Jodeen Carney who could probably be assured of a block of 4 votes (out of 11) in any internal wrangling.
On the ALP leadership… Chris Burns may have been a pointer to likely candidates with his direct criticism yesterday of Hendo and the results of the election campaign.
G’day Glen, welcome back!
Yes, finally something for you to celebrate!
Hmm, looks like labour and/or CLP should have tried a bit harder to cut a deal for those green prefs? Do we know whether they had a package on the table that was negotiable?
ALP insiders ‘quietly’confident of holding Fannie Bay and surprisingly upbeat about Fong Lim because of the large numbers(>5-600) of absentee votes from ALP friendly areas to be counted after lunch today.
Hi Boerwar,
Wasn’t that an entertaining election, and still giving.
Perhaps lifting the vale of secrecy and corruption surrounding donations to the LIB/LAB Party would be a good start in negotiations.
Follow the money.
http://www.democracy4sale.org/
Some journalists trying to link this election with Rudd in one way or another. Keep trying.
My advices is that the CLP expect to win Fannie Bay but don’t know what they are basing that on.
Had some discussions today about CLP leadership and Carney seems to generate some distinct reactions. You either like her or hate her. Apparently she can have a bit of a nasty streak. Tollner is a bit the same – some like him some view him with contempt. Anyway you would have to be a fool to get rid of Mills given this result.
For the ALP Chris Burns is quite a nice guy and maybe too laid back and easy going to take the job, but would be more engaging. Some made the comment that you had to be Greek to get to see Vatskalis or get anything out of him.
If it is a minority government then I guess Woods would have to front up and be a minister – (DPI) Lands & PLanning?
I heard Ken Parish, former NT ALP MLA for Millner, on ABC Radio over the weekend, suggesting complacency and arrogance as the major reasons for the big anti-Labor swing.
I would be very interested to see (but, sadly, never will) any exit polling, and any polling that reflects the views of those who didn’t vote.
Once final results are in, and we see both the final number of absent and postal votes and the failed-to-vote numbers in the seats that change hands, we might be judging that those who failed to vote had the biggest impact on numbers in the Assembly.