6.00pm. Booths have closed. Your first port of call in all respects should be the ABC site; me second.
6.29pm. The new Bayview booth in Fong Lim has apparently been reported: ABC radio says it shows an inadequate swing for David Tollner of less than 5 per cent, but this is based on Antony Green’s guesstimate of how the booth would go.
6.34pm. ABC Radio reports early figures from Brennan and Drysdale showing the CLP with a big enough swing for the former but not the latter.
6.38pm. A small booth in Daly shows a 5 per cent swing to the CLP, not nearly enough to put Labor in trouble if it’s indicative.
6.40pm. Trish Crossin says scrutineers say Labor are looking good in Fannie Bay and Fong Lim.
6.41pm. ABC site now providing results.
6.43pm. ABC computer says CLP retains Blain, Araluen and Drysdale (Drysdale is Labor-held but notionally Liberal post-redistribution); Labor retains Brennan (a big win if so) and Fong Lim.
6.45pm. ABC Radio reports CLP scrutineers sounding very confident about Braitling, no problems in Araluen.
6.46pm. I suspect that Brennan call is highly premature: one very small booth has reported. Labor Senator Trish Crossin tells ABC Radio that Drysdale is not looking good, having been made notionally CLP by the redistribution. Antony Green says consistent 5 per cent swings across Darwin.
6.49pm. ABC computer gives Labor Fannie Bay, Wanguri and Fong Lim – so no dice for David Tollner if accurate. It also gives Katherine to the CLP, which on the raw figures looks like a sound call. It was expected they would face a strong challenge from independent Toni Tapp Coutts.
6.52pm. CLP Senator Grant Tambling tells ABC Radio the two booths in Fannie Bay are highly disparate, so we shouldn’t assume they’re out of the hunt on the basis of the one that has reported.
6.54pm. The Ludmilla booth reporting in Fong Lim has changed the situation there dramatically, according to ABC Radio: apparently very tight. That’s with about 50 per cent counted compared with 11.8 per cent recorded on the computer.
6.56pm. ABC computer now calling Fong Lim for Tollner.
6.57pm. ABC computer calls Stuart for Labor: no surprise there.
7.00pm. ABC Radio reports about 30 per cent counted in Johnston and no trouble there for Labor.
7.02pm. Independent incumbent Gerry Wood romping home in Nelson.
7.05pm. Live coverage from Sky News, but no luck from ABC TV streaming.
7.08pm. ABC computer says CLP to retain Greatorex, Labor retaining Johnston.
7.12pm. ABC Radio says Greens polling strongly in Nightcliff; Labor to win.
7.14pm. ABC TV streaming now in business, but the news is still on.
7.15pm. Slight CLP lead in Labor margin Port Darwin. Another strong performance for the Greens.
7.17pm. ABC computer says Terry Mills to retain Blain for CLP.
7.19pm. Let’s look at the best case CLP scenario. They have won Drysdale and Sanderson; no figures for Goyder but let’s say it theirs; Brennan and Fannie Bay not good on early figures but too early to call; could well win Port Darwin and Fong Lim; haven’t won Nightcliff or Johnston; no real figures from Daly or Casuarina; anything else probably not winnable. ABC Radio indicates the Labor will win Karama. So I’m giving them seven seats, could well win another two, will need to do a lot better to win a further two, and another two we don’t know about yet. The outer limits of the best case scenario gives them 13 seats and a bare majority.
7.27pm. Labor has clearly retained Casuarina, so I’m now ruling out a CLP majority.
7.29pm. Clare Martin tells ABC TV the CLP is doing better than she had expected.
7.32pm. Martin says Labor in “serious trouble” in Brennan, but the ABC computer still only reporting 8 per cent. Fannie Bay very close.
7.34pm. Antony Green still indicating Labor will win.
7.36pm. Great result for Jodeen Carney in Araluen. Maybe if she’d been leader …
7.42pm. ABC Radio says Labor 12, CLP 9, independent 1, in doubt 3.
7.42pm. Antony Green confirms Labor defeat in Brennan, but Clare Martin says Labor looking good in Daly.
7.46pm. Outstanding seats to watch: Fong Lim (likely CLP gain) and Fannie Bay (likely Labor retain). If the CLP wins both it could be 12-12-1. Slow count in Daly but Labor 10 per cent ahead: maybe the CLP can still hope for a miracle there. Overall swing of over 9 per cent, according to ABC.
7.51pm. So CLP notionally retains its six seats; seems to have won Brennan, Port Darwin, Sanderson; ahead in Fong Lim, behind in Fannie Bay; has won Braitling from a retiring independent. So 12 seats not out of the question – meaning it’s too early to say Labor has won.
7.56pm. Daly count firming up, Labor has clearly won. All down to Fong Lim and Fannie Bay, and CLP likely to gain the former. Most likely result 13-11-1, but 12-12-1 not impossible.
7.58pm. CLP leads in Brennan by 3.2 per cent, 58 per cent counted, so they’re almost certainly home there.
8.01pm. For my own reference: Fong Lim CLP leads 2.4 per cent, 50.8 per cent counted. Fannie Bay Labor leads 1.4 per cent, 59.3 per cent counted.
8.03pm. NT Electoral Office site not handling the strain.
8.05pm. Well, isn’t this exciting. Labor 40 votes ahead in Fannie Bay: the 1.4 per cent figure is purely a projection, which are of less use in NT elections than other places.
8.06pm. Looks like the early scare for Labor in Stuart, based purely on speculative ABC computer projection, has now passed.
8.15pm. Antony says we will get 50 more pre-poll votes tonight from Fannie Bay, where Labor leads by 40 votes. Would like to hear a similar update from Fong Lim.
8.21pm. There seems to be some vague doubt about Arafura: independent preferences to decide the result on currently available figures, but yet-to-report Aboriginal communities should resolve the issue in Marion Scrymgour’s favour.
8.22pm. Antony notes low turnout in Fong Lim and speculates we could get a lot of absent votes from voters confused by the new boundaries, which makes sense because it’s a new seat.
8.26pm. I gather this independent in Arafura has directed preferences to the CLP: Antony says 11 per cent of preferences need to leak to Labor for Scrymgour to win.
8.34pm. ABC computer says the Labor lead in Fannie Bay is now 55 votes, up from 40.
8.36pm. Antony says 57 votes.
8.40pm. Antony says Labor’s scare in Arafura has passed.
8.45pm. Important political lesson: don’t knife a leader who takes you to a gigantic landslide victory without any historical precedent.
8.52pm. The overall vote is line-ball on two-party preferred, although this might be corrupted by the two seats where Labor members were elected unopposed.
8.56pm. David Tollner’s lead in Fong Lim has narrowed: with the vote count up from 50.8 per cent to 55.0 per cent, the margin is down from 2.4 per cent to 1.6 per cent.
9.00pm. Renewed doubt about Arafura: leakage required to Labor now 18 per cent rather than 11 per cent.
9.22pm. Antony says substantial preference leakage in Arafura means Scrymgour is out of the woods. All down to Fannie Bay then.
9.29pm. Remiss of me not to have mentioned the extraordinarily low turnout.
9.50pm. Paul Henderson’s speech concedes the CLP only nine seats, apparently regarding Brennan and Port Darwin as well as Fong Lim as in doubt. Much talk of the low turnout and the possibility of large numbers of absent votes as a result of the redistribution.
347 Comments
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That will do for tonight I think. Do recall that this is little more than a jumped-up shire council election and not worth a great deal of navel-gazing. See you all in Perth.
194 Edward – what are you on? No-one here has suggested anything other than that. However trying to predict the next Federal election result on this outcome is foolish to say the least.
According to Anthony Green, some postals were counted tonight, but the rest of the Postals, plus the absentees will be counted on Monday.
It is actually a great chance for renewal for NT labor with three ministers retiring at this election and three possibly losing tonight. The larger green vote than normal is also likely to lead to a reassessment of priorities too.
Or maybe Gary @ 188 Howard only stayed in power “to balance the ledger” with the Labor dominated states.
No – not really. Actually, I prefer to think that most voters can tell the difference between state and national elections.
GB, just me,
Not predicting the result of the next Federal poll, simply making the point if you were Turnbull and reading the portents for 2010 you would have to feel they were favourable.
One down one to go: Watch out Carps!
The only lesson in this election is if you replace a popular leader with a machine shoe-in – you get what’s coming to you. Oh – regards to ESJ.
203 Edward – I know I’m stating the obvious but the 2010 election is over two years away. Who knows what the circumstances will be then.
re counting – Thanks Frank. Just noticed that Drysdale has pre-polls and some postals counted. Seems Gunner in Fannie Bay is now out to a 47 vote lead (winning slightly on postals) as well.
204 The Dark Knight – the last time I looked the CLP hasn’t won yet and may not.
LOL!
Steve #178 (sorry you were in moderation so long), to quote from my election guide: “The Northern Territory is the last remaining jurisdiction where conservatives maintain their old custom of giving voters more than one endorsed candidate to choose from. Their nomination of Angie Seibert and Tristan Mungatopi in Arafura typifies the strategy, with Seibert to campaign in West Arnhem while Mungatopi covers the Tiwi Islands. “
As I said yesterday, Labor will lose a state/territory election eventually!
If it’s not this one, it may very well be WA on September 6.
A win is a win and tonight the ALP have won another Election! yes the CLP have made some gains but the ALP have been returned and as Adam points out the real action is in Perth!!
Yes well calling it in the middle of the Olympics is extremely cynical and may very be a too clever by half move, but they are still clear favourites to win.
More like a Dowding election the September poll I think.
213 Thanks William, it actually makes sense in that light.
Alan Carpenter should be a little concerned after Gippsland & now this result.
And after the Sanderson result, the WA Libs must be breathing a big sigh of relief that they are not stuck with Buswell.
Sure the ALP will lose an Election and while its a long way off but I’m starting to think Brumby might have a fight come 2010 and as we have discussed many times before Lemma in NSW in 2011 and while the polls look good Rudd will have a big fight to win in 2010 (should win it)
Gary #211 I know and isn’t it great! But I reiterate: Watch Out Carps!
William, Does Alan Carpenter have a Liberal brother or sister?
I don’t thinks so if this story re Buswel;l’s alleged “Victim” is anything to go by.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24153351-2761,00.html
220 The Dark Knight – how come sportingbet will still give you $4.50 for the WA opposition, I’d have thought if your theory was right they would have had your mates installed as raging favourites by now?
well steve the bookies were offering $10 for the CLP werent they?
Any price on a loser is not good,ESJ.
Exactly ESJ
This is the attitude which makes Federal politics irrelevant to Territory politics and vice versa.
Last time I looked ESJ, the bookies paid out on who was sworn into government, they don’t tend to pay out on hard luck stories.
All I can say Dark Night is that you are counting your chickens. This one hasn’t hatched yet let alone the WA one.
200
Thomas Paine
Agree completely. The difference between the ALP and the CLP in the Territory is minimal. ‘Conservative’ in the NT means something quite different to elsewhere in Australia, a fact I suspect most southerners have not grasped.
Looking at the number of votes involved, I am tempted to ask a different question – is it worth abolishing local councils in NT except for perhaps the Aboriginal communities? Many of these electorates are smaller than the average Council ward in eastern States. BCC wards are larger than the whole territory electorate!
No, we need sheltered workshops for failed MLAs.
Just Me
thats as realistic as saying there is no difference between th communists and Australian Greens
233
Not even close, ron.
The Greens result is worth a closer look, as the “4.1%” territory-wide result doesn’t really tell us anything.
In the seats that the Greens stood, namely Araluen (13.51%), Nightcliff (23.60%!), Port Darwin (15.60%), Braitling (14.82%), Daly (7.86%) and Greatorex (18.37%), Greens candidates received 2,736 of the 17,199 votes already counted (as of 10.30pm 9/8).
That’s an average of 15.91% – a very impressive result.
I also note that the Greens candidate in Braitling, Jane Clark, finished second – possibly resulting in a Greens/CLP 2CP seat (if the preferences from the conservative independent and ALP candidate flow her way). Another first for the Territory.
Communist & Australian Greens
or
CLP favoring a Uranium dump and Daly river development vs Labor opposing both
under the bed Ron
92% of Federal voters vote either Labor or Liberal , so they can clearly tell there is a difference between th 2 Parties
Its only th 8% Greens supporters who can not see a difference Being only 8% of th population on such a simple matter is damning of th objectivity of those 8%
So what will Shanahan’s monday .oz. story be ?
.
Voters turn on Labor , due to fears of Rudds ETS , or
Liberals return to th fold in expectaton of Cossie returning , or
Voters finally turn to Shanahans’s advise
Great logic there Ron.
It would also appear that those “8%” (source?) have a much better understanding of the virtues of preferential voting than you.
I’m happy to be with th 92% of th population , 8% is about th ‘rational’ CC deniers percentage
With regards to the low turnout, there are a number of aspects being considered
1) Confusion with the electoral distribution which was only completed 6 weeks before the election meaning many voters turned up at regular booths to find they were in a different electorate., to be resolved by absetee ballots in the next week.
2) A failure in advertising of the poll and/or a failure of registered citizens to fulfill their voting obligations as a factor of the short duration (19 days – with a two day window for voter registration and two public holidays) of the campaign.
3) The general flow of voters in and out of the electorate which can be quite significant in the NT, meaning some voters werent registered at their address.
One recurring theme being recognised is the disenfranchisement of eligible voters because of the undue haste of the election.
It may be expected that a challenge to the result in a close seat like Fannie Bay may be on the cards if the final bill is much less than 80% of the eligible electorate.
Rohan
#235
“The Greens result is worth a closer look, as the “4.1%” territory-wide result doesn’t really tell us anything.”
Yes it does , it means australian Greens actualy got 4.1% of th ACTUAL NT vote
.
You can not then cherry pick only th seats Greens THEMSELVES chose to stand in , and ignore th ones Greens themselves chose NOT to stand in because they knew there vote would be small , and xclaimm a cer impressive result
Hell , Labor could cherry pick too , take th 13 seats it may hav won , and average th vote won just in those ALP seats won , a very impressive result would show
Then th CLP could do th exercise but only on there probable 11 seats they won ,
and th CLP would also show a very imprssive result
So now we hav all parties had a very impressive result
Reality is Clare Martin dumping was dumb & done by novices and may hav been a factor , but as most storys predicted a big Labor win this looks like a ‘protes against a landslide’ vote Landslide predictions & storys usualy encourages voters to make a ‘protest’ vote not expectng to or reely wanting to toss Labor out Wonder if having a Fed Labor govt was also a facotor Swings hav to go somewhere so they went CLP & some Greens Th electon in WA will be more revealing
There have been a lot of posts on this blog forecasting all sorts of wild results for the ALP. I go back to previous messages; get your head out of your ass and look at reality. The CLP were never going to win (came closer than I even predicted) but were never going to lose by the margin predicted by those who can’t differentiate between logic and blind allegiance.
Looks like the silent majority shocked all.
The biggest winner of tonight would have to be Peter Styles. This is a man who has never, never, never, never given up. First stood for election over 10 years ago, was rejected by his electorate, by his party, yet kept on going. Former CLP President Suzanne Cavanagh, to her shame, did everything she could to undermine this guy. Where the hell is she these days!
He is a tough man who will be hard for the ALP to crack.
John
#244
“The CLP were never going to win (came closer than I even predicted) but were never going to lose by the margin predicted by those who can’t differentiate between logic and blind allegiance.”
Who ar you refferring to ? My post to Stewart J #166 on previuos NT thread predicted Labor 15 seats , ie. an anti Labor swing & most posters here I think did think similar , holding 19 out of 24 is unusal anywhere
Why would anyone extrapolate from a state/territory election to the next federal election when the latest newspoll figures show a thumping win to Labor if a federal election were to be held right now? I’m still predicting that the ALP will gain seats in 2010.
Obviously not you Ron, but those who have dominated this chat talking Green politics and even predicting an ALP win in Katherine were talking about what they wanted rather than what would happen.
Don’t make me go back and find them, they are there.
What role do you think NT Labor’s opposition to the Intervention played in this?
I have not seen or heard many people talk about the intervention in Darwin that much and, only then in a matter of fact detached way. It is not a big an issue as people might imagine, since it is a complicated multi-faceted issue to the local it is hard for anyone to say this or that is wrong.
For the locals it was not an issue influencing the vote. If anything at the time people were a bit cynical that it was a Howard election ploy and usurped Martin and Labors planned actions.
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