The Australian reports that Newspoll has produced its second successive result of 57-43 in Labor’s favour. The Prime Minister’s approval rating is up two points to 68 per cent, while Brendan Nelson’s preferred leader rating is down two points to 12 per cent. More to follow.
We also have the weekly Essential Research survey showing Labor’s lead steady on 58-42. Also featured are questions on issues deemed important in determining vote choice, economic conditions, interest rates and China’s human rights record. The first of these provides at least some good news for the Coalition if you know where to look: Labor’s core strengths of health and education are found to have fallen in importance since January, while economic management and taxation are up (though so is environment). There is also an echo of the Gippsland by-election in the substantial increase on “Australian jobs and the protection of local industries”.
UPDATE: Newspoll graphic here. Brendan Nelson’s disapproval rating up from 42 per cent to 48 per cent.
969 Comments
RBA predicting 5% inflation at Christmas seems to be the more important figure today.
I won’t try to predict why the poll is what it is but I will compliment Rudd on two things lately.
Firstly he made a controlled but clear and sensible comment on South Ossetia, unlike Cheney’s crazy rant. Too bad the MSM was too busy on the Olympics to notice. (Behind every cynical politician who dumps bad news or corrupt decisions when the news cycle is focused on sport, a lot of lazy journalists share blame.)
Second, in my line of work (transport) Rudd (or someone in government) has finally changed the rules to at last get federal funding for planning for improved public transport in Australian cities. It will unfortunately take a while to get to the bottom of what needs to be done and years longer to fix the backlog but this is a major step forward which should be congratulated. I’m surprise there hasn’t been a bigger announcement.
Just quietly i think NT was the kick up the ass Labor needed to bring it down to earth and start governing for the people who put them there!
Oy Ron,
Watching Georgia? This thing is going to get bigger - much bigger according to the Russian dude on Lateline. Will not play well for the hopemaster but seems tailor made for McCain.
In Australia stability will be at a premium.
After hearing all day from the usual suspects that the outcome in the NT election coming on the heels of the Gippsland loss proves that federal Labor is on the nose with a disillusioned electorate and how Rudd might as well begin packing his bags in the Lodge right now, I can only assume the figures have been accidentally transposed and it’s really the Libs at 57% and that 68% of the surveyed would sacrifice their first born for the chance to be governed by Brendan. And if pigs could…….. LOL!
and the beat goes on.
neeeeeext
I think Paul Henderson and Terry Mills saw some pigs flying on the weekend!
The NT result is a chilling warning to the others States - a change in the electorates intentions may come silently and quickly upon you and leave you no time to deal with it. You can never take your position for granted - ask Howard. Might also make those with egos and leadership ambitions think twice before making a move.
These polls might sow a little trap for the LNP as the issue of industrial relations laws has fallen in importance. Might tempt some to reinvigorate the likes of Workchoices even if the stats showed something like a reduction of $100 per week in wages.
Also good to have the two polls together so we can maybe begin to calibrate Essential Research against Newspoll.
ESJ
Is that why Vice Idiot Cheney seems to be stoking the fire with his recent coments on Georgia? Hoping to start another war to help McCain get elected? I guess if a party is worth stealing government for its worth starting a war for. Great.
Seriously, given the disastrous way foreign policy has gone under Bush does anyone think they are better at foreign policy any more? Cheney has lots of experience too … Nicaragua, Iraq, Afghanistan, now Georgia … quite a record. The USA’s hamfisted liaison with Georgia has left that country in a disastrous position and now France and Finland are desperately trying to repair things. McCain is part of the Bush - Cheney axis of stupidity. He’s admitted himself he doesn’t know anything about economics either. It would be like us electing Wilson Tuckey.
Too bad Rudd doesn’t speak Russian. LoL
Do the yanks still have a stomach for more conflict? How much more do they want to bankrupt the economy? How much do they want to push up oil prices? And are we looking at the next Russian Tzar in Putin?
Thomas
Those are good questions. Its a pity nobody asked them before the Georgians started moving troops in. They gave the Russians the perfect excuse to do exactly what they wantd to do anyway. Putin would love to control the pipeline through Georgia. Talk about poking the bear. Maybe Cheney has the stomach for more fighting but that is easy to feel from the safety of a warm bed in Washington. I doubt the Georgians do now.
ESJ
#4
Yes , conflict in Georga helps McCain , but then what a choice they hav , a snake oil sales man and a mumbling geriatric BUT then those US voters elected a B Grade Actor in Reagan and a dumb Bush 11 , whose Dad Bush one tried to get employment in his mates Texas law firm , and Law firm actualy wantd to ditch him after a week ( and he defeated th able Al Gore)
USA system continues to throw up plastic pollies , and this year there are two
Thank goodness we live in ‘oz’
Socrates
can not th pipeline be diverted from th contested area containing oil and into Georgia , leaving Russia as only a tributary sugesting issue is oil based
It’s the NARROWING!!!! Oh wait, no it’s not.
Watching Georgia in the beach volleyball….no wonder Putin is invading
The writing is on the wall for all to see - CC is just a great motivator to get stuck into it. Concerted effort on developing renewable not just for CC but energy security and independence. How many of these wars/conflict in the Middle East and Africa could have been avoided if their oil wasn’t needed. It would be good to be able to ignore some lunatics in the desert as being irrelevant to the economy!
However we of course see the OO come to the rescue of big oil/coal and pushing their barrow for them still and holding Australia back in the dark ages whilst everyone else starts down the road.
Ron
Possibly yes; but it depends on where the Russian troops stop. They have bombed the pipeline but its is not in the territory they control yet AFAIK. However now they are across the mountains and firmly entrenched, there is really no natural or military barrier between them and controlling a strip of land across Georgia that could cut it off completely. I don’t know what will happen but they can basically do what they want now. Given hsi past form it would be surprising if Putin didn’t use the chance to take at least some form of control over the pipeline. Hence my view that doing anything that provoked conflict here was incredibly against the interests of Georgia and western customers of the oil and gas. Hence Cheney and the Georgian president were fools IMO.
According to the Lateline interview the Russians planned this invasion in April. Sometimes Socrates when all else fails you have to fight. A lesson the West learned to its cost in the 30’s.
Socrates
#16
“Ron
Possibly yes; but it depends on where the Russian troops stop. They have bombed the pipeline but its is not in the territory they control yet”
Socrates , hope I’m wrong , but susdpect when dust finally settles Putin will hav some sort of “control” of that oil pipeline Agree with you very foolish provacaton of th Russian Bear without a plan A or B
The parellels with Germany in the 20’s and 30’s are a bit eerie… a collapsed empire which is clawing it’s way out of economic ruin, feels embarrased by it’s fall from grace and wants to re-assert itself as a power, and still has designs on expanding into it’s neighbours’ territory.
What goes around, comes around.
Also a quote that seems to have been missed is the Polish President:
“[We've told] Georgia we’ll provide any help they ask for. We don’t have any plans to send troops, but you should never rule things out”.
Last week you were saying we are headed for a recession. How exactly is inflation going to continue to rise if we are headed for a recession?
ShowsOn @ 21,
Probably fair to say that no-one knows exactly where the economy is heading.
But inflation coupled with recession is far from impossible: it happened in the 70s, at a time when US foreign policy seemed increasingly impotent, and the price of oil had just skyrocketed.
showson its called stagflation.
You’re right, Dyno. They called it Stagflation, and it was one of the factors (one of many) that crippled Gough’s government.
Well, I propose that if inflation goes up, it means it is because we are going to keep growing too quickly.
I propose that if inflation goes down, it will be because the economy is slowing, which will reduce consumption.
Why do you think we are going to suffer stagflation when we haven’t had that problem for ~18 years?
Why do you think we will suffer stagflation when we no longer have a protected economy with centralised wage fixing?
And Fraser’s.
There is no reason why will will suffer stagflation now.
Won’t stop the righties bringing up the prospect of course
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-12aug.pdf
ESJ seems to have this philosophical idea that if he can think of something, then that means it is about to happen.
No reason ShowsOn? Only the classic reason - global price of oil.
Diogenes
#144
August 11th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
“Ronster
My point was that I don’t think China and India would be selfish if they refused to do anything about CC until they had the same emissions per capita as the truly selfish countries like the US, Australia etc”
Diogenoski , you’ve skipped th central issue USA (including Obama & McCain per there own policys) selfishly will NOT support ratifying Kyoto , if USA did then USA will get same FULL targets as every other “developed Nation” (ie. same citeria as EU, Japan , Canada etc)
India & China who’ve already ratified Kyoto ar ENTITLED (rightly) under Kyoto protocols to get temporarily a reduced target (vs USA , EU , Japan) because they ar clasified as “developing Nations” and hav put less CO2 up there in last 100 years and ar prepared to negotiate those reducd targets
WHEREAS USA ar selfishly saying USA won’t ratify Kyoto , unless Tyoto Protocols
ar changed for there economic benefit , to make China & India’s emmission target on same criteria as USA EU Japan etc But th other 182 Countrys who’ve signed Kyoto ar (rightly) happy to give China & India dispensation because they ar in fact “developing Countries”
Your point about ‘per capita’ emmissions may or may not be part of India/China’s reduced target negotiations but is acedemic presently , as th central issue is USA refusal to accept th exisitng 182 Country ageed Kyoto protocols in th first place (allowing “developing countries” like India/China temporary targets dispensation) My point is USA (including both current selfish Pres candidates) ar about to destroy Kyoto by not joining Kyoto , and this arises before one can look at per capita emmissions
For all th terrible sad humanatarian abuses in our World and curent Putin disgrace in Georgia , CC afects whole planet Even Uncle Rupert said “our world deserves th benifit of doubt regarding CC ” Pres candidatesd john Edwards & Mrs Cackle bich were prepared to , but Mr oiliness and Mr mumbling geriatric ar not We can only hope world pressure makes USA look past th mighty dollar (which by day is devaluing anyway)
And as I put quill down , so has Mr Shanahanigins with a spin story perhaps 57% to 43% is same as last Poll , so Liberals hav not narrowed but Labor has “plateaud” or was NT a start of dominos fo Liberals , perhaps with Cossie to rescue
ShowsOn, I see blood in the Tiber.
stagflation anyone?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/economic-gloom-hits-rate-cut-chances/2008/08/11/1218306775357.html
ESJ, no doubt about it twelve years of wasted opportunity under a Howard Costello government was always a big risk for Australia.
Until the banks get back into line and stop adding to inflationary pressure, things will only get tougher. It defies belief that the banks can add more to the inflation rate than huge world oil prices.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/business/now-the-reserve-bank-says-its-worried/2008/08/11/1218306819096.html
“stagflation anyone?”
Sounds more like a bunch of clueless economists, who now that they have to give reasons for their thinking are having a bet each way to cover their backsides.
Edward St John #33
The last time Australia saw stagflation was under Treasurer John Howard. Now it appears there is a chance he has taken us to the edge of that situation - again.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/opinion/editorial/general/howards-record-as-treasurer-questioned/133401.aspx
Rx,
The cause is a matter for economists to debate, the price will be paid by Mr Rudd. That’s politics old boy!
Where is the justice in this world eh?
You’re sure all the price will be paid by the inheritor of the Coalition’s economy? Some voters (probably not conservative voters LOL) will see who took us for 11.5 years to this point and take into account also global factors.
ESJ,
57/43 is justice.
We all want justice, but you’ve got to have the money to buy it.
57/43 to Labor is the sort of justice I can afford.
ESJ, the banks could cut rates now if they wanted to.
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24164098-14327,00.html
Double standard?
for those outraged on China over Tibet, where are the outrages over Russian on Georgia.
Those who were predicting war with Iran before the US POTUS election may have the next best, war in Georgia.
Classic article by Henderson for media studies.
Gerald labels organisations and journo’s as left of centre whilst complaining that “Radio National cannot find even one conservative-inclined regular commentator to cover US, Australian or British politics.”
However, Henderson fails to disclose his own right (far?) wing allegiences and those of the other journo’s and organisations he mentions.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/no-wins-for-howard-in-culture-wars/2008/08/11/1218306764370.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
The Narrowing! The Narrowing!
Brendan’s back to 12%
Read about the Iran, Israel connections to Georgia here:=
http://www.iraq-war.ru/
The interesting line is at the end of Dennis’ article - that all Costello had to say when asked about the Lib leadership was that he said last year that he was retiring from politics.
Given his previous statement that his mother always told him to speak the truth, then he’s retiring from politics.
We all know that he refused the leadership last year and that a desire to punish the Libs was part of this.
I can’t see why, when things are going exactly the way PC expected them to then, he would now deign to pick up the leadership.
He’s quitting, end of story.
It has only ever been about publicity for his book zoom.
Craven masochists, given they are begging him to lead them, after he’s spent months “punishing” them. LOL Craven + desperate (any port in a storm).
[We all know that he refused the leadership last year and that a desire to punish the Libs was part of this.] 46 Zoom
If that’s the case, Zoom, maybe he wants to punish them more by continuing.
I beg the Liberals to keep Nelson as leader, I’m enjoying the trainwreck!
SMH says to expect 5% inflation and 2% economic growth - not terrible (it’s about the same conditions Spain and half the EU are facing), but it’s not great either.
That said, the ironic thing is that we’re going to be doing economically better than most of the other developed world’s economies…
Costello is a surfer. But he only rides waves of success.
The worse things look economically, the less likely Costello will make a comeback.
I find it amusing that the journalists who are collaborating with Turnbull et al in spruiking the line that Rudd and Swan are guilty of “talking the economy down” are the most egregious perpetrators themselves. Shanahan’s habitual mantra - “… with talk of a looming recession…” - is a case in point.
The pensioners, doubtless hard-pressed, openly whinge when a Labor government is in power. They readily admit that their plight goes back through years of inequity, yet fail to make the connection that most of those years they lament involved J. Howard and P. Costello in charge of the nation’s purse strings.
Henderson rails (yet again!) about the Culture Wars, criticising the absence of “right leaning” commentators. He picks Radio National (one of the smallest audiences in the country), yet neglects to mention ABC TV; indeed he is a regular on Insiders, as are Bolt and Akerman. Lateline regularly hosts Liberals on panels and in interviews. And TV news always tack on an obligatory “however, the Coalition disagrees…”
I suppose Henderson would criicise (as do The Nameless One’s commenters) the concentration of attention by the ABC on the Liberals’ leadership woes. But if Cozzie is the Messiah, why shouldn’t we receive regular updates on his return from the wilderness? I want to be ready when He returns, don’t youse?
As someone pointed out a few days ago, the Libs can’t even claim to have a Lord Mayor as their highest ranking elected official anymore. Yet they expect the ABC to cover (and cover for) this clear failure of their party to perform by giving them equal air time. More stories with right wing commentators and more coverage designed to promote by giving equal time to a party that is nationally and even gubernationally, indeed locally out of office: how could that be balanced? I am reminded of La Trioli’s claim to Malcolm Fraser that her job was to present the government’s point of view even when they couldn’t be bothered to send someone along to the studio for a debate. How her gig on Lateline Friday interviewing Chris Pyne must leave her feeling now. She thought it was her leg up into the limelight. Tut, tut… yes Virginia, there is justice in the world.
A fortnight since the last Newspoll has gone by… A fornight in which it has been confidently predicted that Labor is a oncer, Costello was coming back to show those socialist buffoons a thing or two about managing the treasury, Wong was likened to Hitler and Saddam for acknowledging the drought, and the pensioners suddenly realised thay had been caught up in a raw deal, but blamed the wrong person for it.
And nothing much has changed, except Brendan’s a little worse off, Rudd a little better, interest rates are tipped to fall, Akerman yet again predicts a Heiner inquiry, the CLP loses another election, the ABC’s still a cabal of leftist, woolen tie wearing ratbags, our swimmers aren’t as fast as we were told they were, the Chinese faked some fireworks and the Russians put on some real pyrotechnics.
And where is the Messiah when you need him? Hiding under a table, weak and trembling, but letting it be known this is his way of being strong and silent.
All Shanahan’s little pieces of paper, blown off his office table by the prevailing winds of… sameness.
Now, where are those scissors? Dennis has some cuttings-out to do.
Bushfire Bill: well done mate, comment of the day award to you!
Methinks the biggest let-down of 2008 won’t be Nelson’s leadership performance, but his successor’s.
Thanks Bushfire, are you Mungo macallum in disguise??
Bushfire Fill, I want you to have your own regular column.
nice one BB
I think you’ve only missed one issue from the week - the fact that the Seven network seem to be obsessed by the US athletes when there’s no Aussie to crawl up the arse of - what’s with THAT?!
If I was Mungo I wouldn’t be hunkered down in suburban Sydney, rugged up like a sick Eskimo with my fingers blue and typo prone, listening to bulldozers wreak Sartor’s revenge on the patch of bush next door.
I’d be a Happie Chappie.
I’d be even happier if I could understand the difference between womens’ Olympic judo and two ferrets in a sack. Whatever happened to uki-goshi and tomenagi? Why couldn’t they stop slapping each other and then falling over?
Bliss would be my constant companion if Rudd realised that his opposition is so awful they’re making him look good. Bolt actually wrote, po-faced I presume, that 57-43 wasn’t too bad, considering. Considering what? That we could be hit by an asteroid later on today?
My mood would improve if Adelaide-Bendigo Bank had promised they’d stop randomly putting my mortgage up when they had the chance to on Lateline Business last night.
Lastly, if I could figure out this optics problem I’m working on, on and off between blog posts, I’d be rich. Then I might be Mungo after all, or at least give him a fright.
Oh Bushfire, if your previous post wasn’t enough to warm the cockles of my heart with a stingingly accurate summary of the rubbish being peddled by so many in the last week, then your analysis of the Olympic Judo bout last night is just so spot-on as to wipe away the last chills of winter from my soul.
Thank you!
And BB, if nothing else then putting a smile on so many blogster faces this morning *should* make you a Happie Chappie.
Julius Caesar refused the crown three times, only as a way of getting the appearance of being drafted into the job by a desparate group in need of leadership. But Cassius and Brutus stabbed him when he came to collect.
Watch out Dollar Sweetie!
Yes BB, a mad capped collection of sweet repartee, that I really enjoyed. Our female swimmers are a bunch of drug cheats, and it’s really getting under my skin. It’s not purely the fact that they are and that they are winning but it’s the throwing stones in glass houses that really gives me the irrats. Unfortunately this has brought out my sicofantic worse, as I can’t wait till one of them gets caught and blows the lid off the whole thing. Unpatriotic, you say. Well not really. I just can’t stand the injustice and people taking credit when it is not due. Cossie and Howard you are the same you economic freudsters.
centaur
I haven’t heard anything about our water babies - have you got any clues to back that up? Remember that sheeps blood extract and breast milk are still legal…wink wink… I’ve heard more disturbing things about some of our other ’sportsmen’ though.
Every time I see an opposition spokesman crying about the injustice in what are long term problems a flick of the TV remote and the quick muttering under my breath of “twelve years” eases my blood pressure somewhat.
Let’s just hope we’re not doing the same thing with the current mob in a decade - this country really can’t afford it.
“Julius Caesar refused the crown three times, only as a way of getting the appearance of being drafted into the job by a desparate group in need of leadership. But Cassius and Brutus stabbed him when he came to collect.”
Too right, Riccardo. Further, Caesar awarded Brutus a promotion before his assassination.
Socrates@8-
hope you don’t mind,, but just made reference to your Widson Tuckey comment over on the the US election thread ..
Sums it up in a couple of words
“The cause is a matter for economists to debate, the price will be paid by Mr Rudd. That’s politics old boy!”
You keep on making these statements ESJ without any supporting argument. If Rudd was going to be blamed for this situation it would be showing up now in the polls. It isn’t and he isn’t. Get over it.
Which is currently at its lowest price since May.
centaur 007
$64
“Our female swimmers are a bunch of drug cheats, and it’s really getting under my skin. It’s not purely the fact that they are and that they are winning ”
Which swimmers , and which drug test ?
Tricket 100% sure, Jones 95%, and Rice 80%. The cartel of athlete, coach and medico are always a step ahead. That’s why Marion Jones et al get caught years later. Everyone gets tested and you would have to be stupid or Bulgarian to take things close to the event. I have 30 years of training, and steroid experience to know what body structure can be achieved naturally and what can’t. Don’t get me wrong it’s not 90% of all the other competitors aren’t also but we are always throwing the stones. I only trust the horses and only because it’s dressage.
Does anyone else find it strange that the voting population thinks Nelson is a complete dud, but despite this they’re not really marking down the party that continues to keep him in the leadership position?
It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me - it basically says we’re going to vote for them no matter what doesn’t it?
In the party room there’s basically no impetus to roll the poor bastard because he’s not really killing the party - they might as well wait until the stars align before sticking the next bloke in the hot seat because apparently party reform or policy development are no longer criterion for attracting core voters.
I’m a bit sad for the country that the status quo is considered ‘good enough’ really.
71
centaur_007 Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Tricket 100% sure, Jones 95%, and Rice 80%.
Where is your evidence , apart from your amateur opinion ?
A gold medalist Tricket and Rice woulsd hav already been tested in Bejing
(having already been test regularly in ‘oz’ 0
You ar talking bullsh.t , your views represent less than 1% of ‘oz’ population
I hope you’re here in 8 years Ron. Like I said that’s not how steroids, growth hormone, etc work. Test all you want now.
Innuendo is no good centaur.
That’s the same as blaming all cyclists because there are definitely some that do dope. It’s a nice catch all but, it’s not true.
I’m not doubting the possibility of what you’re saying, but without evidence or a credible theory of the method it’s pretty shallow.
End of discussion as far as this goes - put up or shut up.
Besides, this isn’t the forum to be discussing this.
I find it easiest just to assume they are all taking drugs which makes it a level playing field. Then the best man/woman wins. All this hysteria about drugs is a bit silly. Who cares if they take steroids? What’s really freaky is that these drongos get paid megabucks at the taxpayers expense to swim a few laps of a pool and we all get excited by it.
Why do they have freestyle, butterfly, backstroke and breastroke? Do they run the 100m sprint backwards, sideways and skipping as well as forwards? Why don’t they just do freestyle?
I’ve had my ran, now lets get back to politics. The Rud government I believe will give pensioners at least $30 week extra, but they can’t be seen to be doing in response to a study or any lobby group. They missed a great opportunity at the budget. I’m not sure where they can sneak it in now and dissasociate from the other stuff and seen to be bowing to pressure. I think by next budget it will be a) too late b) predictable.
Anyone else?
rant that is
centaur@77 : Rudd can quite rightly use and point to, the review of the pension by his government if and when they increase it. He has said all along that he will wait for the review before making any decision.
“I have 30 years of training, and steroid experience to know WHAT body structure can be achieved naturally and WHAT CANN’T”
And NOT one official in swimming , or in Atheletics or in ‘oz’ Olympic Federation has such knowledge Anyone can throw mud by innuendo , and then as you say ‘lets get back to politcs’
Yes we should get back to politcs, your diwsgraceful unsubstantiatd slur simply needed to be rubbished first , I do rubbish it as innuendo seeing you could not put up or shut
I mean had you said Wilson Tuckey was on happy pills , fleetingly somone may hav taken you seriously until we realizied Wilson Tuckey has no excuse whatsover for being a dumbwit , he’s naturally one without any pills
It requires a particularly slavish devotion to be a jack- in-a-box troll, when your utter failure of a Party and its policies, gets its arse kicked in twenty odd elections in a row. To then offer a critique of the Party that did the kicking takes some chutzpah.
Socrates:spot on about journos. The thing is, I think most journos nowadays are so wishy-washy, so amoral, that they’re actually secretly impressed when someone like Putin does this during the Olympics.
I doubt many have much experience outside the PR-avertising-journalism industrial complex to actually be impressed by anything other than cynicism.
Gerard must be the current designated misinformation driver. The truth is of course that on the whole the media in Australia is right leaning and some journos far-right.
So Brendan has the party’s “unqualified support”…
http://www.theage.com.au/national/online-liberals-push-for-costello-20080811-3tmp.html
Diogenes@76
I think you may have forgotten Synchronised Swimming in that list…
Must be time to mention Workchoices again and what effect it would have on peoples ability to cope in a slowing economy and, that Costello was one of the prime movers. Quickly followed by a mention of a debate on the Republic issue.
On the French SBS news this morning they had what I think was the russian rep on the security council giving the US an absolute bagging. If I got it right, it was something or other along the lines of the pot calling the kettle black, sort of thing.
The clip ended with the the russian rep reminding the US that it had bombed civilians in Iraq, Afghanistan and Serbia.
Some of you might recall the Russians cranking up the starting motors on their Black Sea fleet when NATO was bombing the crap out of Serbs aka the southern slavs. It was humiliating for the Russians because those ships were going nowhere and were going to do nothing. They were forced to leave their little brother in the lurch. There are lots of threads to this nasty little Georgian war but one of them is the Russians getting one back on the West for Serbia. Unless Bush and Cheney are prepared to put up on Georgia, they should shut up because all they are doing is increasing the West’s humiliation every time they open their mouths and do nothing while the Russians complete their plans, whatever they are.
Other footage is available from sothern Russia of Ossetian refugees. These have Russian-type names and speak Russian. There are numerous russian minorities in former states of the USSR. In some of these states the ethnic russians are getting a very bad time indeed. This is to remind everybody that the bear has claws and that irredentism is alive and well.
Another thread is the russians versus the muslims.
Finally, of course, there is, ahem, oil.
I thought that the last big biggerup that Bush and Cheney would inflict on us was going to the bombing of Iran. I hope I am wrong and their last buggerup is in the Caucausus.
Rudd should increase rent assistance by $30/wk
Is not pensioners in own homes really hurting, it is those, esp singles, renting. Then at the review a pension increase can be granted.
Gary Bruce,
I cannot but speak the truth.
89 Edward - ok, let’s hear it then.
Ok GB, I am right, you are wrong.
EStJ
91 Edward - About as comprehensive and as in depth as your previous comments. The sniper in full flight.
Gary Bruce, I admit I have come to the conclusion that the shield of your Labor uber alles prejudice is impenetrable.
Yep, Boerwar, I fully agree. South Ossetia (and now Abkhazia) are Russia’s way of venting her spleen over Kosovo. If the US and its NATO chums can carve new countries out of old ones, so can Mother Russia.
Um Kakuru the facts are somewhat different, I believe Kosovo was 90% Albanian and had a genocide launched against them - some people might think this justifies the creation of a new State.
The Pineapple Party has shuffled the deck chairs and as per the usual Springborg confusion, the Shadow Ministers don’t actually shadow Ministers but adopt names dreamt up in fantasyland. Also it is delivered the week after it was promised.
Flegg has refused to take a shadow portfolio. The Shadow treasury position has gone to the head of the Santoro faction. The Member for Gympie, David Gibson has been put in the sustainability, environment and climate change and clean energy strategy shadow portfolio based on his opposition to the Traveston Crossing Dam.
The Nationals Fiona Simpson takes on the major infrastructure shadow portfolios.
Health shadow is Deputy of the National Liberal Party Mark McArdle. The Dentist from Surfers Paradise has been given Education Shadow role. Workchoices supporter Steve Dickson seems to have been named workplace and job security spokesman.
The winners seem to be ‘the outdated’ with Hobbs, Johnston, Horan, simpson, Malone, Seeney joining a long list of notable failures form the past couple of Shadow Cabinets who have so far been unable to make any impression as Shadow Ministers. It would be interesting to know what the average age of this recycled brigade happens to be.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/major-opposition-reshuffle-announced/2008/08/12/1218306842670.html#
93 Edward - when you want a proper debate on Labor and their future and want to address my points made in some detail and with reasoned argument (as opposed to unsubstantiated negative one liners and smart alec comments), let me know.
ESJ
Many South Ossetians have Russian citizenship. They claim they are being “ethnically cleansed” by the Georgians, and so cite the Kosovar precedent. From here, I can’t see through the Fog of War.
They way i read kosovo shananigans was the after the yugoslavian colapse, the croations moved to expel all the Serbs from their claimed lands. The serbs went to do the same thing with Bosnians et al, and the west said you can’t do that. Russia was in no position to do anything but sat and frothed at the mouth on the side lines. Orthodox countries will always support each other, Russia, serbia, greece, Cyprus eg the eurovision voting. now we have revenge, and how well it was put after pocking the bear, the bear wakes up with a roooooar!
(Ron do you know how steroids work? Do you have a science background?)
ESJ @ 95
The facts are always different. I am not saying the Russians have morality on their side. Just trying to alert people to the fact that there is history and context here and that it is not just a matter of Russians and the Ossetians bad, Georgia and the west good.
Russian governance appears to be reverting to ‘type’. Tsar, dictator, strong man. These folk have historically, and perhaps now, tended to believe that extra-judicial murder is OK at a personal level and then again, the Russians have a bit of a mass murderous track record, most of it, fortunately in the first half of the last century and further back.
Are the Russians ‘right’ in Ossetia? I would say, on the whole, probably not. Are the Georgians ‘right’ in Ossetia? I would say, on the whole, probably not. They were dopey bastards giving Putin an in. Apart from that, bottom line, whenever you feel you have to start shelling your own citizens, you have a moral problem on your hands.
That said, how well is the west placed to cast the first stone at the Russians?
On the whole this century we have white-anted whatever moral base we had.
True, assassination of political opponents is still relatively rare and appears mostly to be done by deranged individuals rather than state or party organs.
Torture, extra-judicial murder of selected targets via rockets launched from drones, kidnap, setting up ’special’ legal systems, systematic invasion of privacy, and systematic suppression of press freedom are now somewhat taken for granted. Of course there is some shillyshallying about whether waterboarding is torture, but really only amongst lawyers, politicians and such like. Ordinary people recognise it instantly for what it is. Remember when the only the bad guys did torture? The invasion of Iraq was not exactly a moral triumph, although western oil companies, surprise, surprise are doing quite nicely out of it.
Then again, the west, in particular the US Air Force, did stop genocide in Kosovo and congratulations to the West for this. This was a good outcome. And some of the bad guys are getting an international trial, which is also a good outcome.
Socrates@8
That doesn’t say much for the long-suffering and seemingly witless burghers of O’Connor, who have elected Wilson “The Man with a Criminal Intellect” Tuckey at every federal election since 1980.
Boerwar
Just to show how difficult the truth can be to find, there is a body of opinion that the Kosovo genocide only happened AFTER NATO bombed the Serbs. Evidently, there isn’t much evidence of bodies before the bombing according to this article. I’m not saying this article is the truth but who knows what the truth is.
I think Rudd is smart to keep fairly quiet on this one. Lining up behind the US with it’s total lack of moral authority just puts you in the firing line.
Sorry, forgot the link.
Genocide in Kosovo?
http://www.counterpunch.org/biglie.html
very informative diogenes
Diogenese @ 103 Thank you. Very interesting article and an issue ignored in the MSM. If true, somewhat of a bugger-up that cost lots of innocent Serbs their lives and many more their livelihoods.
Going back, we know some things with a reasonable degree of certainty. The first is that the Serbs had already demonstrated that they were into mass murder as a matter of state policy. They had demonstrated this against people who (a) were not regarded as ethnic serbs, (b) who were trying to break away from being governed by the serbs (c) who were mostly muslim (d) who were living in places which were once geographically part of some ancient serb empire or other and (e) who were living in places deemed by the Serbs to be part of their cultural heritage.
The kosovars fulfilled all these pre-requisites, so the West knew with a fair degree of certainty that the serbs were not going to be pleasant to the Kosovars. It was also more or less difficult to know what exactly was going on.
Then again, there is also some debate about what genocide means. Quite a few people think it can mean something less than killing every last person off. (I don’t).
That said, the article tells a story eerily reminiscent of the search for WMD in Iraq.
The Ottomans left a fair bit of unfinished business when they went to pieces, including the balkans. The problem with an empire as a governance system is it leaves all sorts of unfinished and nasty business when it collapses. If, as some people believe, the US has a quasi sort of virtual empire (troops in over 100 countries or some such figure), and the US is on the decline, what sort of nasty unfinished business are we going to have to address in the coming century?
And what we are seeing now is the legacy of the Romanov empire, which became Stalin’s empire, which Putin is trying to recreate.
Note Boerwar: The US is not in decline.
Adam @ 106
I think you are right about the first of the Putinovs. (Does he have a son, BTW?)
I would be interested in understanding more about your view about the decline of the US. I suppose I have a bit of a view that empires all go eventually and that we may be watching the beginning of the end for the US, with an understanding that the end might take a century or so. I also think the US is qualitatively different from other empires in that it does not necessarily have to have absolute extra-territorial control to gain empire benefits.
My rough estimate would go along the following lines.
In terms of soft power? Probably declining. In terms of relative economic power? Probably declining. In terms of relative global financial power? Probably declining. In terms of direct or indirect control over commodities? Probably declining. In terms of relative military power? Increasing. In terms of relative ability to innovate? Probably increasing. In terms of IP? Probably increasing. In terms of adaptability and flexibility of US governance systems? Probably declining.
You are confusing transitory epiphenomena (ie that Bush is a lousy president) with long-term trends. The key to long-term power is demography, which economic vitality and thus military power flow. The US continues to grow lustily, thanks to immigration and a high birthrate, while Europe is stagnant, Russia and Japan in decline, and China heading for a bust thanks to the one-child policy. The long-term trend is, as it has been for 150 years, for New World ascendancy over the Old World. Of course the US’s relative military and economic position vis-a-vis other countries has declined since 1945 - hardly surprising since all the other powers were in ruins then. But US superiority in virtually every field is still enormous and will remain so. The so-called China threat is a chimaera. China is heading for a hideous demographic, environmental and economic crash.
Adam,
Yes they are…..
They have been borrowing money from, amongst others, China to fund their wars for the last eight years….
If the Chinese economy slows and they need to (like the good socialists they are) spend money to make work, they’ll stop lending money to the US.
Money makes the world go round. And the US is running out.
Boerwar
What you ar saying is when USA sneezes all of World taks notice
Whilstever USA has th dollar as denommination , a huge consumer ecomony supported by increasing immigration , backed by an innovative private enterprise system and World’s strongest war machine , they do not hav a problem (there 5 trillion debt & trade deficits can be turned around , by a stroke of a quill)
Adam
Where do you get this stuff from? It isn’t just demographics, but a combination of finance, demographics and the number of educated workers. If not, you would expect Indonesia to be more powerful than Australia, because they have 10 times our population. On all such counts China is progressing very rapidly.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
I don’t pretend that the US is suddenly powerless, but they have been in a long term slide. At the end of WWII they were about 50% of world GDP. Now its a quarter, and shrinking rapidly. The US debt situation will affect them for a decade or more. Look at what happened to Japan in the 90s when their asset value bubble burst.
Adam
If China crashes economically, which I have repeatedly read IS going to happen, won’t they call in debts and sell off the US dollar and bring the US down with it?
Adam is of course correct. Capitalism does have an unfortunate tendency to have booms and busts, Schumpeter called it creative destruction. That shouldnt equated with the end of Western civilisation or the US as we know it.
EStJ
Adam, come back and tell me about it if the US civilization has survived for 5000 years.
Remember the Third Reich was supposed to last for a 1000 years.
At least the Chinese civilization has survived for the last 5000 years. They will survive for another 5000 come what may.
Of course Chinese civilisation will survive. China’s pretensions to be a great power will not, so long as they are a corrupt, inefficient, one-party state.
Demography does not equal merely size of population, duh. It means growth. Population growth + a free market economy = prosperity = power. Indonesia now has both and is indeed on an uphill incline, but from a very long way behind. Ditto India. China has little growth and will soon have none, and only a semi-free market economy. Europe has a FME but no growth. Russia has negative growth and a gangster economy.
Little Growth?
7% pa + last I checked…..
Admittedly, that’s down from 10%, but it’s still no slouch.
*rolls eyes* population growth
centaur
#99_
August 12th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
“(Ron do you know how steroids work? Do you have a science background?)”
Centaur , you claimed our Olmpic swimmers were drug cheats and named Libby Tricket 100% sure, Leisal Jones 95%, and Stephenie Rice 80%
You probabley had no place making such an irrelevant comment on an ‘oz’ Politcal site. Made worse by th fact you made an innuenndo slur without th slightest evidence
Put up , not here on a politcal site , but in an appropriate forum where suspect you will also be met with giggles without credible evidence
.
For those unfamilar shape changes , I ‘ve had involvement for over 20 years with a mainstream ‘oz’ pro sport , taking 15 to 17 years old skinny kids weighing 75kg plus , to within a short time to 95kg plus , full of muscles anywhere you want high powered high speed high endurance sharp reflex responses skin tones th lot , through modern training drills diets tecniques weihts etc etc programs , but geared to that sport Changing th mix is required according to th Sport So PB’s our Olymppic swim girl shapes ar not unusual to ‘experts’ such as ‘oz’ Olympic Federation (who ar experts in looking at ‘shapes”)
@114
5000 years of Chinese civilisation? I think that’s very hard to demonstrate. 3000 years probably, but more than that involves guesswork.
And even 3000 years of Chinese civilisation is not the same thing as 3000 years of China as a state. I think you’re overstating your case.
Sorry, I didn’t realise you were putting so much store in as futile a number as population growth….
I’d also revise your assumption that you can’t run a free market economy in a one party state. Politial freedom is not the same as economic freedom.
What is the advanage in sheer numbers of population anyway? As you seem to have conceeded with almost zero change in population the Chinese have managed to grow their economy by 10% + for multiple consecutive years.
Your missing the “productivity of Labour” part of the equation.
Population X Labour Productivity + Capital X Capital Productiviy = GDP
From there, higher GDP = Higher Power
This idea Rudd needs a narrative sounds like BS to me.
What narrative did Howard have? If he had one how well did it work for him last election?
With numbers like these in the polls why does Rudd need a narrative?
Was Howard ever criticised for a lack of narrative?
It’s total BS IMHO.
yes i agree about labour productivity. productivity comes from educating the workforce and investing in technology, but that can’t be done without economic growth. thus we get a virtuous cycle. economic growth must come first, as it is now doing in india and indonesia. in the long run india will overtake China unless China has political reform.
yes, china has created a reasonable facsimile of a free-market economy, but in the long run it can’t succeed without democracy, because only democracy (which includes free trade unions and NGOs) can prevent corruption and environmental degredation, which China’s kind of capitalism is producing. China wants to be a giant Singapore but that model can’t be translated to a major economy.
GB @ 121,
Howard’s narrative in 1998, 2004 and 2007 was:
“Vote for me or Labor will get back in and stuff the economy up…”
In 2001, it was:
“Vote for me or Labor will let terrorist illegal immigrants take over the country…”
And in 1996, it was:
“Vote for me or Labor will continue to stuff up the economy…”
Pretty simple (and successful, except for ‘07).
Gary Bruce
#121
“This idea Rudd needs a narrative sounds like BS to me.”
Do not know where you got that story from , but Michelle Grattan was running that line , and used W/C as an example of where Howard needed a ‘narrative’
Was very tempted to write to he and say a narrativee on a ‘bullsh.t’ blatantly inequitable policy will achieve zero
Anyway rudd has mapped out CC , and after white Paper will fill in broad story of what it means , thats a reel ‘narrative’ , about a reel policy
123 Swing - Well, Rudd’s will be just as simple. Vote for me or the Libs will bring back WC.
124 Ron, I’ve noticed a few journalist’s recently pushing this “narrative” BS. It’s just another way of criticising Rudd IMHO.
Ronster
As much as it guts me to say this, I have to agree with you. Anabolic steroids are over-rated. They do cause a small amount of increased muscle mass but they mainly work by increasing the psychological drive to do stupid things like get out of bed at 4am and work out at the gym for 4 hours before sensible people have even got out of bed.
There are plenty of people out there on anabolic steroids for medical reasons who look no different after taking them, except for the acne, breasts and bad attitude.
Adam
I’m still not sure if you think China will drag the US down.
Adam in Canberra
115
Can you cite a reference for the information on China that you are posting?
“Demography does not equal merely size of population, duh. It means growth. Population growth + a free market economy = prosperity = power … China has little growth and will soon have none, and only a semi-free market economy.”
Every year China’s population grows by 14 million people and that is with the one child policy. Population growth is not a problem like in the West!
Have a read of David Lucas article on World Population Growth - it was written in 2003 but has up to date links to the UN’s population websites where you can easily access accurate information.
http://adsri.anu.edu.au/pubs/BAPS/BAPSChap3.pdf
Looks like Fuel Watch is dead in the water. Still, the government can say it tried and was thwarted. Not there fault.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24168661-601,00.html
Considering that the Libs in WA under Richard Court introduced Fuelwatch, will Current Liberal Leader Colin Barnett have the balls to scrap it here ?
#119 - I suggest that it will pay for you to go and study the Chinese history and philosophy. The Chinese nation is both a political. social state and a state of mind.
Agreed. Leading by a huge margin in every poll, but they ‘need a narrative’. My arse they do. I can’t hear any of them saying the opposition need a narrative…
Fuel Watch DD trigger number one.
Watch Kev collect a few DD triggers just to scare the Fibs, it is always a good idea to have the threat of an early election. Even though I doubt it would happen.
ruawake @ 132,
Rudd will almost certainly have to go “early” to some extent - otherwise he’ll end up tripping himself up over the Vic elections in late 2006 or the NSW elections in March 2007.
My tip is that we’ll see an election in early-mid 2010 - he probably wants to “accomplish” a few more things before he goes back to the polls…
I wonder if Newspoll have any “Costello question” results coming out this week. I would like to see a Rudd V Costello PPM question. I’m not sure Cossie would do very well.
If I was Rudd I would be very cheerful at the prospect of a Costello return. A 2010 campaign against the man who thought WorkChoices didn’t go far enough would be a gift indeed. The only Liberal Rudd need fear is Turnbull IMHO.
133 Swing - The Victorian election in 2010 is fair enough but NSW doesn’t go until 2011. No problem of clashing there I would have thought.
I’ve also noticed a couple of Journos (Henderson for sure) saying that Rudd hasn’t achieved anything yet…
But it’s just that Rudd hasn’t done anything along the same lines as what Howard did. As a thought experiment I like to envisage what I think Howard would had done had he one the election (WC Mk II), then compare it to what we currently have (Sorry, Carbon Trading, Mandatory Detention) and the difference in the two is what Rudd has achieved.
Quite a bit really.
I think the important point is that most voters don’t care about politics, they just want to have someone in the job they trust not to screw it up too much so they can get back to watching the Olympics….
GB,
Rudd can go as late as March (or even April 2011), because Parliament didn’t sit for the first time until mid-February this year.
But of course, he’ll be smart and go in mid-2010 to stop the Libs complaining about him not calling an election after November 24…
138 Swing - yes, you’re right. I too believe he will go marginally early for the reason’s you’ve given. It makes sense.
MRET is planned for legislation approx May 2009 , and ETS commencement July first 2010
So you can guarantee a Federal Election will not be too much later than that , so allow th prospective whingers/losers from ETS to be aleged actual whingers/losers from ETS
Yes there’s a nice record of Mr Smirk wanting W/C to go further , and guess Sir Kevin is praying hard for his resurection Then we hav all of Mr Smirk’s interest rate rises vs as expexted Rudd’s interest rate falls
IRONY , Rudd slapping cossie down over interest rates , and Paul chuckling at tips discomforts
NOT allow whingers
@130
‘#119 - I suggest that it will pay for you to go and study the Chinese history and philosophy. The Chinese nation is both a political. social state and a state of mind.’
Maybe it would. But maybe it would pay you to consider the possibility that other people have some knowledge, not just you. Maybe you know more about Chinese history and philosophy than I do. But maybe not.
There is no documentary evidence from China from 5000 years ago. Archaeological evidence confirms that there were people living in China 5000 years ago, but I know of no evidence that suggests they had the same civilisation or the same state of mind as the later Chinese, and you haven’t presented any.
88
Jovial Monk Says:
Rudd should increase rent assistance by $30/wk
Is not pensioners in own homes really hurting, it is those, esp singles, renting. Then at the review a pension increase can be granted.
Good idea. Though it probably would be politically prudent to give the non-renters a little sweetener as well.
Adam says:
The only Liberal Rudd need fear is Turnbull IMHO.
And Turnbull’s greatest threat is his own party.
If there is an election for the House of Representatives in the first half of 2010, then unless it’s a double dissolution there will have to be a separate half-Senate election in the second half of 2010 or the first half of 2011.
Turnbull looks scary because he is comapratively left wing.
The potential for wedging him on previously declared positions (like the Republic) would make it tough for him to hold the liberals together while not losing creidibility.
Turnbull is only a threat as a “draft-in” candidate. If he is there for any length of time his natural inclination to the left will split the far-right liberals off him and Rudd will be fine.
Window of oportunity for 2010 election is fixed
Can noyt go into 2011 as legitimacy questioned
Can not go pre July 2010 as Rudd would not want to hav a completely separate Senate election held later in 2010 where an anti govt swing is more likely
ETS strikes July 1 , so cann’t leave it too long to call , before ETS bite hits
And i’d prefer Rudd facing Horatio Neklson or Mtr smirk , rather than silky Turnful
RA @ 146,
But where would the far-right Liberals’ preferences go? Back to the Libs, of course. That’s why it makes sense for Rudd to tack rightwards - he may lose votes from the left, but they’ll all flow back to Labor eventually.
J-D @ 145,
Good point. Which means, unless Rudd pulls the DD trigger, he’s only got a narrow period of time to call the election - which means, the Coalition can prepare for that date with relative certainty unless they hand Rudd a DD trigger…
“The US continues to grow lustily, thanks to immigration and a high birthrate, ”
The US population growth rate is about 0.88% which is near half the world population growth (1.59%), its birth rate of 14.2 per 1000 (world 19.97) and an net migration rate of 2.9 per 1000 (which is in the top quartile, but not spectacular).
And here’s a picture of population projections to 2050: http://tinyurl.com/5upq5f
d
Swing Lower:
Not the voters - the party members!!!
If you think they tied themsleves in knots about the 2011 or 2012 start date for an ETS just wait till they start arguing about when the new Australian President should start his term.
Apologies, that was a typo, not a dig at your user-name.
Don’t forget DD elections result in the backdating of Senators’ terms to the previous 1 July, so there’s a range of dates that constrain the following election as well. Eg, if a DD election was held in March 09, the next half senate polling day can’t be any later than May-June 2011.
d
Jovial,
As Mal Brough said to the former Howard cabinet, the pension needs to be increased. Not just rent allowance.
Gary Humphries is waffling about his Senate enquiry, but Brough actually raised it in Cabinet.
Who knocked it back? Tip probably.
ruawake, Tip used to send Brough all over the country to make promises without any financial followup and especially when Brough was Minister in charge of Disability services.
More Libs caught openly supporting a coup.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/online-liberals-push-for-costello-20080811-3tmp.html
I hope this is the right thread. I noted that The Australian did not bother to headline this Newspoll on its front page. If I had time, I’d do some research comparing the Newspoll results with the headlines for each over the past 18 months – I have my suspicions.
155 Diogenes
Kewl, let’s hope they tear themselves apart!
Jovial
How about we all sign up to the online push for Costello.
The Coalition and their supporters just cannot and will not admit that 12 successive interest rises,10 in the Howard/Costello years and 2 early in the Rudd/Swann Government term (attributed to the previous government) had anything to do with Howard/Costello economic mismanagement.
Even though our economy is mostly controlled by what happens overseas, the extent of the suffering is governed by what is done before any downturn. Many of us were talking of the impeding dangers of the huge personal debts of ours and the USA. The Howard/Costello government was warned a number of times by the RBA (interest rises) to slow down the economy however they did nothing, they were in a bribing mood and would could not change.
Now they want to place all the blame on Rudd and Swann for the Coalition’s incompetence.
hehehe was thinking about that
It’s probably a smart idea to get all the Labor supporters to push for a $weets comeback. It achieves two objectives at once. Forces the sweet one’s hand and makes him knock back the inevitable leadership offer or forces the MSM into a lather of excitement to know they have sown the seeds of a Labor re election.
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=26608641804
He He
ruawake
That’s a lovely photo of Julia. She came up a treat. Have you read the reply by Paul Ritchie to the Age article. There’s some serious cognitive dissonance going on there. He’s just wants the world’s greatest treasurer to stick around for a few years to give us the benefit of his wisdom and vast experience. But my favourite line is the last one;
He seems to missing the point here. We want Cossie to stay around more than the Libs do. I agree with Adam that we don’t want Turnbull.
Adam in Canberra @ 122 -
yes, china has created a reasonable facsimile of a free-market economy, but in the long run it can’t succeed without democracy, because only democracy (which includes free trade unions and NGOs) can prevent corruption and environmental degredation, which China’s kind of capitalism is producing
I would argue that Chinese corruption pales into insignificance compared to the official corruption inherent in the U.S. - think the military-industrial complex, Halliburton/KRB etc, farm subsidies, the huge bailouts of the banking system (and not just recently, it happened after the 1980s Savings and Loans scandals too).
And America is by far the worst polluter in human history, both per capita and overall.
I also submit that democracy has had very little to do with the fortunes of past economic superpowers. The British may have had democracy at home, to varying degrees, but there was precious little of it in the parts of the Empire that created the wealth. The same can be said of the Romans, Spain, Portugal and the Dutch.
Diogenes, an anyone but Turnbull campaign. Now you’re talking. You’d instantly have the full support of the Liberal Party, the National Party, the Greens, the Murdoch Press, the ALP, the Pineapple Party, the Fairfax papers and the major TV stations.
Amazingly, the OO has a much more positive take on the Draft Cossie site, chiding Fairfax for its “sombre coverage.” It’s all just a sign of the overwhelming love good-minded conservatives have for this great underappreciated Australian. They are waiting for replies to more than 200 invitations to join - including to Mr Howard, The Australian’s columnist Janet Albrechtsen, Ms Bishop and Alexander Downer.
ESJ- have you received your invite yet?
Costello supporters turn to Facebook
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24167975-5013871,00.html
How sad when the powerhouse of ACT Liberal Party Tony De Domenico joins the Tip = Messiah Facebook group and none of the media mention him.
ruawake, the support for Tip is just overwhelming and almost getting to the stage where only the few against him can be individually named.
#164 - Democracy is for the birds when you have empty stomach or as Confucius used to say “you cannot eat democracy”. The challenges for the Chinese Government have always been:
* How to feed 1.34 billion people
* How do you at least give them some human dignity not sub-human like the Japanese and Allied Powers used to regard them
* How do you keep social cohesion among the 1.34 billion people
It is very well for us here of 21 million people to pontificate of what the Chinese Government should or shouldn’t do. We all should be grateful that the Chinese do not have the kind of religious and social divides that have shackled India.
That almost guarantees failure then
So what would News Ltd’s angle be if Cossie took the leadership and the polls held for Labor?
My guess is they’d attempt to reset the honeymoon fantasy (it being valid only in relation to particular leadership contests, so they would explain).
But then how would their “narrative” change if, once the honeymoon delusion had run its course, the polls continued to hold for Labor?
My guess is that Everyone Loves Sham would quit journalism and open a mens nautical clothing store in Noosa.
I don’t know about The Mayne Abuser. He’s a little more desperate, so it’s likely he’d move in with his copy editor and construct some parallel universe out of papier mache in the lounge room - a chamber, a miniature Cossie, a “narrative” …
Mayoferal @ 164, I’m with you on judgment about the comparison of the corruption in the U.S. versus China. Howard et al. were just so primary school playground with AWB. Now, I wonder if anyone in the gov’t has been doing a bit of trawling through the contracts for the Christmas Island detention centre, for example. You never know what has fallen down the back of the couch when you’ve been in residence for 11 years.
Inner Westie, I’ve noted on a couple of threads that no matter what gets flung about as the end of the honeymoon (stupid concept to apply to politics), the all spin, no substance nature of the Rudd gov’t., he’s a control freak/micro-manager vs. he creates chaos, we’re headed into turbulent economic times, therefore, the great Costello must be dragged out from under the bed, even if he’s whimpering about not being lauded in this lunchtime (preferably extended with a noice sticky to go with the pud, to make up for being bullied by his older brother), the polls aren’t going anywhere. That’s interesting.
Adam thank you for your response
One issue is that in absolute terms the US can continue to grow but in relative terms it can decline. In economic terms it is the latter that has been happening. Conversely, in relative terms, the US military has never been stronger.
I question your basic assertion that what is happening is just a blip because of Bush @ co’ mismanagement. As others have pointed out, the US’ relative share of the world’s economy has had a long-term declining trend. There is nothing much in the wind to indicate that this trend will break any time soon. Bush has probably accelerated the trend by burning an estimated $3 trillion (high end estimate) in Iraq. I don’t have any proof, but I would guess that the end of most empires is usually accompanied by debasement of the coinage, serious balance of payment problems and big external debts. The US has these at the moment.
I agree that China is most likely heading for trouble. The question is how big will the trouble be? One reason is water: They are pumping fossil ground water at greater than recharge rates; they are poisoning existing rivers and lakes; their eating habits are moving up the heavier water costs chain; summer water flows from melting himalayan glaciers are heading for a crash; their industrialisation uses lots more water than it used to; and, probably, there will be significant regional CC variations in rainfall. They are busy damming what they can, so to some extent they are exporting their water woes to adjacent countries. For China, it is use now, pay later. As with water, so with most areas of the chinese environment. Taken in isolation, water issues are probably not insurmountable. However, to fix them and all the other environmental problems will take lots of $ and I would have no idea of what the opportunity cost of all that investment will be. However, the problems that other economic centres face individually or together in themselves do not necessarily make a compelling case that the US is not in some sort of trouble.
One of the reasons the US is interesting is because it is a different sort of empire from other empires.
I am not sure that I agree with the notion that being a democracy is going to turn around the US’s the long term decline in relative economic power. There have been many long term empires that have been run by emperors or monarchs, have grown but have then declined.
The old metropolitan empires were often run by (metropolitan) democracies as they declined. These include england, holland and france. It may be that a sufficient majority of the folk back home got sick of the cost of empire and so those countries baled out of ruling empires. Autocratic empires are not going to take too much notice of what people at home think and may continue to maintain empires for longer.
I agree that democracies are probably more likely to be less corrupt but it is not an absolute rule, and may only be a relative boon. At the height of its empire building during the Napoleonic war, one in four pounds invested in the British navy was defrauded, stolen et cetera. It was a thoroughly corrupt polity. You nominate Indonesia positively but it is generally rated as one of the half dozen most corrupt countries in the world. I would also question whether significant decision making in the US is not heavily corrupted by graft and political donations. I don’t have much of an idea of how much, but I am certain it is there to some extent.
Nation states,as opposed to empires, run by democracies can also decline, so it is hard to argue that democracy per se leads to growth or to decline.
I suggest that there are other important factors in why empires grow and decline that have not been considered in the above string. These include: exhaustion of low-hanging fruit commodities (eg oil in the US) and exhaustion of something like the ‘drive’ to empire or the end of manifest destiny. In democracies it might exhibit in something like a reverse drive to isolationism while problems back home are fixed. The degree to which societies are militarized may also be important. There was a time when standing armies were viewed with deep suspicion by most US citizens. No standing army, no empire. The current deeply entrenched position of the US armed forces may get deeper or there may be a time when the citizens start saying, well, we’d prefer better health care and education and less spending on the military.
Runawake
There you go and spoil cossie’s site saying he is hopeless That is not th idea at all
Fortunately i’ve followed with a strirring rendition for th savviour
With 12 years as Treasurer Peter has runs on board with interests rates management and terms of trade deficit control Make him leader to take on Rudd in 2010 with Peter Costello’s record as evidence
by RonPollb
Interest rates 12 increases
Terms of trade deficit, was 184 billion in 1996 , at 2007 electon was 540 billion ,
Wonder how long it will take just one of those alleged Liberal financial wizards to pick th above up is a total negative to Cossie , and then argue Peter reely did other Treasuary things right
“158
rod Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Jovial
How about we all sign up to the online push for Costello.”
some of us already did.
hehe
Ron, how quickly we forget, with a proven track record like that I think he will be the best friend Labor ever had. Bring $weetie back immediately and kick him upstairs into a leadership role.
Agreed HSO. In some ways I think a misguided faith in the principle of “authoritative voice equals powerful voice” affects the way people understand the pronouncements of mainstream political journalists in this country. (Probably any country, and probably all modes of communication … but anyway.)
Lamb Shams, for all his “little pieces of paper” (as BB would put it), is actually quite articulate and knows how to forcefully prosecute an argument. Ditto for the Queen of Bronte. Dare I venture that Anglo Oz’s convict heritage has cultivated within its dominant white population a public respect for larrikinism and irreverence, but a private desire to be told how to think and act by authoritative figures who can turn a phrase or two (crack a whip or two).
Is the USA Empire declining?
Yes.
Why.
Europe has learnt how to expand an empire without military force, it is now the largest economy. If Russia hadn’t acted Georgia would have been part of Europe within 10 year, probable still will be.
USA: Expansion into the middle east failed, influence in the rest of America declining. Will probable lose reserve currency status to Europe within 10 years.
Russia: OK they have their tanks in the next country, but in the long term I bet they don’t take economic control.
Adam in Canberra Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
” The only Liberal Rudd need fear is Turnbull IMHO.”
Don’t worry it will take at least two more losses for the right wing nutters to lose control of the Liberal party.
steve
#177
“Ron, how quickly we forget, with a proven track record like that I think he will be the best friend Labor ever had. Bring $weetie back immediately and kick him upstairs into a leadership role.”
Remember that “debt truck” he had of Federal Government 96 billion debt ?
Am having barbarian thoughts for 2010 , of a new debt multi coloured truck
for th terms of trade deficit
pictures of Cossie all over, Mr Smirk and all , 1996 $184 billion , 2007 $540 billion
And cossies words ‘I didn’t hav ticker to challenge Howard but look what I did with th debt’
Inner Westie @ 178:
IW, with the greatest respect… you’ve got to be kidding.
If Shanahan knew how to “forcefully prosecute an argument” he win a few more than he does now.
There’s a difference between being able to sit down at your keyboard and make up whatever greasy bathwater argument you feel like at the moment and actually convincing people, that is, getting them to act on your maniacal pamphleteering.
I should know.
“and actually convincing people, that is, getting them to act on your maniacal pamphleteering.
I should know.”
tell us more BB
181 Ron, Peter Costello would add new understanding to the ‘Peter Principal’. Cream only rises till it sours.
Tempted to publish my own Newspaper here , th “ozzie ostrich” , with head political writer , Andrewe Shanibullibolt , giving daily opinion ’spins’
@169
‘Democracy is for the birds when you have empty stomach or as Confucius used to say “you cannot eat democracy”. The challenges for the Chinese Government have always been:
* How to feed 1.34 billion people
* How do you at least give them some human dignity not sub-human like the Japanese and Allied Powers used to regard them
* How do you keep social cohesion among the 1.34 billion people
It is very well for us here of 21 million people to pontificate of what the Chinese Government should or shouldn’t do. We all should be grateful that the Chinese do not have the kind of religious and social divides that have shackled India.’
In fact, China does have religious and social divides, not exactly the same as in India, but much more significantly handled differently by the government. If China were more like India, it would be better for some people and worse for others. Whether the Chinese people themselves would prefer to have their country run more like the way India is run is something we can’t tell. Why we should be grateful for the way the Chinese government runs China I can’t see. I can’t see how it would be any worse for us if China were run more like India.
135 Adam - yep Turnbull is it for the Libs at the moment. Here’s hoping they’re too stupid to realise.
Mind you I also think later is better for Turnbull - the sheen will come off the more people see him. By the end of the Republic referendum even I was thinking about voting “No” because he was so damn obsequious - and he hasn;t learned anyhting since then either.
ruawake, your I love Cossie post has an answer, you commie!
steve
#184
“181 Ron, Peter Costello would add new understanding to the ‘Peter Principal’. Cream only rises till it sours.”
Yes Steve , and in his case it may not hav to rise far ! What is rmarkable is GST was a Howard creation from Hewson , so in 12 years just what did this guy do
There was no restructure of Taxation system gered to equity & incentive , no net extension of major public services like Schools & hospitals for future , no Information highway broadband and criticaly no major infrastructure created for jobs & future ‘oz’ competitiveness All he’s left behind as a memory is that smirk of arrogance i’ve joineed his Facebook as a member to draft him back as Leader & posted
BB, I was putting myself in the mind of an uncritical reader - or, at least, a reader with far less skill in “meta-analysis” than you. I’m not sure that the influence of Lamb Sham’s authoritativeness (let alone its existence) is denied so casually by many of the OO’s readership. For them, I claim, it is real. The force with which he prosecutes an argument is defined by how much impact it has on those to whom it is delivered. (A set which does not include you or me or a great number of people who are sceptical enough, indeed, who are simply inspired enough, to look for a subtext.)
While the bludgers are exporting democracy to other sites, I found an opportunity too good to miss.
That intellectual economic heavyweight the divine Miss O is live-blogging tomorrow. The topic is the somewhat inflammatory “Will you lose your home?”. She will display her wisdom on a range of weighty macroeconomic issues such as interest rates, house prices, and the looming recession. You are all cordially invited to join the HIGH NOON live debate.
What a treat!
Warning to Finns!! Stop reading now!
She is also specialising in criticism of the Beijing Olympics at the moment. Her new blog is “The Glum Games”.
There is a lovely response to her from Mulga Mumble brain;
J-D @ 186
Deng offered the big deal to the Chinese people. ‘You guys go off and get rich but keep your noses out of politics. Leave that to the Party.’ That’s the sort of deal that usually only works for a generation. But the next generation, particularly the ones who got rich, usually then want to get into the politics as well. It is an inherently unstable situation.
I have read somewhere or other that there are 20-30 000 incidents of civil violence in China every year. These incidents generally arise when some locals are bastardised by local or regional party officials. Redress is usually short-circuited courtesy the same folk who implemented whatever bastardry happened in the first place, hence the need for Mission Control Beijing (MCB). The bastardry often involves things like stealing land, paying poor prices for agricultural produce or not bothering to pay wages.
MCB, if it hears about a violent incident, sends a crisis team to try to stitch something up. I am not sure how often MCB is successful but it is useful to know that while, from the outside, China looks highly centralised, monolithic and totally top down, it is not. City, regional and local cadres can, and do, get away with murder.
Unlike in Taiwan, partially in Singapore and partially in Hong Kong, the mainland Chinese have hardly ever had democracy. What they have had is rulers with some form of ‘mandate from heaven’. In other words, as long as government delivers a fairly peaceful sort of existence where you can eke out a living, then OK. One of the reasons why MCB has occasional big sets of highly publicized executions of corrupt officials is to maintain its mandate from heaven. But when sufficient folk believe that the ruling dynasty has lost the mandate from heaven, the ruling dynasty is in big trouble. At such times, civil unrest may take a religious form. This is why the Communist Party reacts so strongly to Falun Gong. It is also why it is disingenuous of the Falun Gong mob to pretend that they are only a misunderstood religious movement. They potentially form a very dangerous revolutionary nucleus.
Whether most Chinese prefer their model of governance to that of India is a moot point. My guess would be that most Chinese would hardly really know what is happening in India. MCB likes it that way.
Pardon my ignorance, but who is Miss O?
Ron
Have you heard that mining service company WorleyParsons are planning to build a billion dollar thermal solar plant - the world’s largest - in the Pilbara within 3 years?
It will be the first of a planned 34 across the country by 2020. The first evidence that the ETS isn’t all doom and gloom but good for business. And as a major player in the mining sector possibly a sign that coal’s future isn’t rosy.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/12/2333041.htm?section=australia
Inner Westie @ 178. Interesting perspective on the Oz psyche. However, I think while it was something you could put your finger on, around the era between the World Wars, and maybe a bit beyond into the fifties, Australia is no longer like that place.
Would you believe I walk down the street to get lunch and look at the tall folks from Africa, and think, geez, these people are so … tall, and then there’s the tiny, teeny Vietnamese gals. Oz is something else these days, particularly when you start talking to these really, really tall folk and the really teensy, tiny folk. You’d swear you were in a Tolkien story, many a time.
Will you lose your home?
Hmm Costello Howard inflation and rate rises. It was far more affordable to buy the family home in Hawke’s time with high rates than now with housing and rent become unaffordable to many.
C.Overingblah is going to try and slag Labor how on this? Every financial pressure at the moment. Bet she has a bunch of pre-made sentences to cut and paste.
The LNP still believe they have a Mandate from Heaven even though their high priest was sacrificed on the Bennelong altar.
Mayoferal,
It was a natural. Australia has far more sunshine than coal.
Greeensborough Growler @ 197 -
Perhaps, but coal ismuch cheaper and we have enough to last us a very long time. The WorleyParsons project would not even have been considered if JWH had won.
MayoFeral
#194
Thats Mayo , great news isn’t it Each power station to power 300,000 homes , that 10 million potentialy meaning alot of excess power spare
Seeing presumably those major companies would hav had some unofficial briefings of generally where ETS plan will head , that is positive of what Rudd has in mind as ETS has got on those Majors there skate boards
Will watch for more data on structure & precise buiding planning of th thermal solar plant This is super solar
Part of ’structure’ I’d like to see is th proposed business plan , including ascending enegy output , retail cost to consumer , & distribution
Same info was just repeatd on lateline , with Green’s Milne politicising th anounsement ! how crass Its just been announced and she criticises Rudd for inaction and PROPOSES guaranteeing such projects profits for 20 years no less
Mayoferal,
1.When we run out of sunshine, it’s a permanent good night.
2. Coal is cheap because its true environmental cost is not factored into the economic equation. Anyone for ETS?
3. I’d like to see someone invent a use for all those CO2 gases in the air. If you could commercialise that then “Bob’s your Uncle, Sally’s your aunt and rover’s the dog”.
GG
1/ won’t happen ? , sun keeps coming up so far , and 2/ th cost will grow as th permits reduce against cap (thats when pointy end of political & econamic pressure may arise and colide , unless such projests as WorleyParsons hav capacity to replace required enegy needs
Still hope some govt oversight so consumers don’t get fleeced and enegy costs don’t make us uncompetitive
Ron,
1. I hope you are right.
Also on lateline tonite was Georgian ambasador saying they never expected Russian retaliation
Whilst they were naeve , a peace plan was debated earlier in year at Nato , with strategic efects to russia , turkey etc surely discussed Is Bush & Cheney completely asleep at 3 AM , or is this all amateur hour at th White House on inteligence and assessments , with Georgians paying ultimate price , and what were Eurpoeans thinking Putins bear had gone asleep
193 Just Me
Sorry, Miss O is the colour writer for the OO, Caroline Overington.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php
Caroline Overington
Ahh, of course. Thanks.
Caroline had made it clear she is not a fan of me , and I just can not understand why , I mean I tried to be civil when calling Mr Smirk th rodent’s own rodent
Ron,
I’ve noticed your chick magnet qualities with posters like Jen and Catrina as well.
I think a makeover is in order.
From now on you are Ron,………… James Ron!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ii1tc493bZM
am I allowed to add 007 , or would that be presuptous GG in attracting th cat and th Jen and th melanie and …well there ar so many
http://www.theage.com.au/national/fuelwatch-faces-fatal-blow-by-independent-20080812-3u67.html
INDEPENDENT senator Nick Xenophon has dealt an apparently fatal blow to the Government’s FuelWatch scheme.
Senator Xenophon said yesterday the current Senate inquiry into the scheme had strengthened his view that the plan would be illusory for competition and bad for consumers.
“I cannot support FuelWatch in its present form,” he said. He would only back it if there were considerable amendments.
Ron,
If you want to publicly present the number of your conquests, that is up to you. But, for me, far too much information you stud muffin.
I did stop at three , thats just three who saw no gentle side whatsoever despite best eforts Perhaps I missed using th secret code words “yes we can”
Well I did stop at three , thats three who saw no gentle side whatsoever , but perhaps th secret code words should hav been used “yes we…”
James Ron 00
211 James - the government still comes out smelling like roses on this one. “We tried but we were blocked in the Senate. Talk to the opposition parties.”
Agree Garry
But
“The scheme would require most service stations to register prices daily and would prohibit them changing the price for 24 hours.
In May FuelWatch was dealt a major setback when leaked cabinet documents revealed that four departments had warned it could push up petrol prices.
Senator Xenophon said evidence to the inquiry had been critical. It suggested FuelWatch would kill off independent operators.”
Therefore I would hav thought this extra info to consumers , and with prices fixed 24 hours in advance , would not dissavantage consumers at all , and more likely presure prices down , and can not uderstand th oposition to Scheme
Nick Xenophon in big Oil’s pockets already? If he thinks it illusory he thinks it will do no harm - so why block governments legislation?
One early failure by Xenophon in the role of independent. Wonder if he will get carried away with his own importance and start to make himself the government?
Which how it operates in WA and the sky hasn’t fallen in yet.
Mr X ’s excuse was non tabling of modelling and some Dept’s saying prices wouold rise
Looks like he’s out of his depth , because commonsense says info to consumers can not do harm (and more likely benefit) , yet confusingly he says it will hav no impact , and politicaly he could hav used it as well as a plus
On such a relatively minor issue compared to issues he will hav a potentially desiding vote on , its appears not a good sign
Xenophon is danger of getting carried away with his balance of power and thinking himself the rightful lawmaker and ignoring a few million voters. Yes, on such a trivial thing that has basically little downside and the possibility of good, it is a bad sign.
Is he so easily manipulated by the LNP or Oil? Or is he looking to make himself look important. Will have to wait and see.
The media misinformation run these last months is having effect in some areas. I heard one person today say that they heard others (whom she tended to agree with) that Rudd promised a lot but doesn’t seem to have done much.
Doesn’t mean people will turn away from Labor, just that the expected more. They should be making it very clear that it is the LNP and even Xen blocking initiatives.
But if the media wont report what the government of the day is doing truthfully then not much they can do about it.
If Xenophon is going to be the Senate fool (obviously too early to tell) then Labor will either have to make deals with him or DD. If Rudd ever won control of the Senate I wonder how quickly media ownership laws would change.
“It is understood that Senator Fielding, while supporting FuelWatch’s aims, has growing concerns about the scheme. The Greens are unconvinced FuelWatch would lead to a reduction in petrol prices”
LOL!, you mean as opposed to doing nothing?
… and on, and on, and on… talk about a broken record!
“We didn’t think anyone would get upset if we invaded South Ossetia and started bombing villages, shooting people and blowing things up. We’re a democracy after all.”
Does Jones have the hots for her?
On another subject, retail organisations claimed Grocery Choice is useless. If it’s so useless why not let it run and prove what fools the government are?
Same with Fuel Watch. Since when are motorists supposed to give a damn about fuel retailers, since they haven’t given a damn about us in, oh, the last several decades?
In the annals of Australian Hypocrisy And Greed, the attitude of the Coalition and grocery and petrol lobbyists is right up there with Tony Abbot’s “Don’t trust a politician to appoint a Governor-General. Trust a politician instead. I should know because I’m a politician.”
Of course the buggers don’t like Fuel Watch and Grocery Choice. Because they cover fuel and groceries which, combined together, have turned into a nice little earner for Coles and Woolies, whose grocery prices just happen to be about the same, as long as you don’t count Aldi, who are 25% cheaper than either of them. Franklins comes in a coupla dollars more than the majors, but Franklins don’t have fuel to extract the last few cents of “value” from the credit card.
But if the mug punters fell for Abbot’s scam, they’ll fall for this one. I mean, why be informed about the cost of fuel in your area, when it’s so much easier to just pull in to the servo and be price-gouged by the “Fuel Cycle”. We shouldn’t be too hard on petrol station owners. They have feelings too.
I expect the usual limp lettuce leaf response from the government on this. Happie Chappie Kevin Rudd keeps the Labor attack dogs on a muzzle leash. He’s got one of those little plastic bags and a pooper-scooper too, to make sure no-one gets offended if rover drops an oopsie on the neighbour’s front lawn. And no peeing up against those nice Liberal people’s tyres, or scaring that sweet old pensioner lady’s cat up a tree. Naughty dog! Stop humping that lobbyist!
Meanwhile the Coalition and their mates let the rottweilers run free, slathering over every juicy morsel that the nice Mr. Rudd - he’s the one with the halo - offers them, munching Shi-tzu’s and Labra-doodles as if they were chicken Schmackos. The theory is, I suppose, that if the Libs see how pleasant life can be when you control your mutt and play to the rules, they’re sure to learn by example and stop being so anti-social. The Devil’s in the details, y’know. Well… blow me down… there goes another Maltese! Down the hatch. Didn’t even touch the sides.
I don’t care about the polls. I voted for Rudd to fight for what he told us he was going to fight for. And, just as importantly, to look like he was fighting for it. If the public don’t know there’s even been a battle, then they don’t know there’s been a winner.
When things just happen everyone takes the credit. The Libs are getting far too much air-time and oxygen, not just because the media are that way inclined, but because it’s being ceded to them by Mr. Nice Guy. How in the hell did BHP manage to get away with announcing the solar power station without Martin Ferguson sticking to them like $hit to a blanket, waving “Me too”? In fact, how did they manage to get away with it without making the explicit connection that it had been in direct response to government policy and that they wouldn’t have done it otherwise? That’s the government’s job, but nobody’s home.
The mugs can only assume, “Things just happen”. Like the Prius factory (it was going to happen anyway), the solar network might end up being passed off as BHP and Rio Tinto being “good corporate citizens” without a mention that if there’d been no head kicking it would have been built in a million, increasingly hotter summers.
And now they’re running the line that the less we know about prices of fuel and groceries the better off we are. Unless a few more heads are kicked, that’ll stick too.
I’m all for everybody being nice to everybody else, but every now and again you have to let your dog crap on the neighbour’s lawn and hope they tread in it.
I can recommend the practice. It makes you feel like you’ve achieved something.
Dare say the government would be breathing a sigh of relief that Fuelwatch went down in the Senate. Saved by an independent from a bad policy decision. Chris Bowen would be hoping the whole silly idea is quickly forgotten.
Seems to me to be a political error for the Opposition to reject FuelWatch.
They’d have been better off abstaining or something. “We don’t think it will work but we’re willing to let the Government try it”. It’s not as if the scheme could ever be a big deal one way or the other in the real world.
GG, James Ron,
Go the chick magnet.
On policy questions as opposed to chick questions I am always prepared to take on board outcomes to adjust my views.
I have to say in the case of the Ronnettes privatisation it is proof that not all privatisations work.
9 months in power and not a lot to show for it todate Dyno. Setting up 2 websites is about the sum total.
One would believe that the Petrol Garages may as well close from Wednesday to Monday as every one fills their car on “cheap Tuesday”or is it “cheap Wednesday”. That is what the Oil firms, the Coalition and those opposed to Fuel Watch would have us believe.
228 ESJ - oh bollocks, that comment is so trite it is scarcely worth rebutting. Rudd did more in the first month than Howard did his first term. Kyoto, the Apology, yes and several website, and a whole lot more.
Twit.
ESJ - The Howard Party was in power for nearly 12 years and all it has to show for it is the GST (a straight steal of Hewson’s blueprint); high inflation and the least affordable housing outlook for first home buyers in our history; an independent Timor-Leste, though the Indonesians deserve most of the credit and our modest contribution was despite Downer’s best efforts to f*ck it all up; the soon to be gutted Slave Choices; an illegal war; and a number of decaying concentration/torture camps spread out across the Pacific.
228 “9 months in power and not a lot to show for it todate”
Unlike the brilliant opposition who are not sure who they want as Opposition Leader but have narrowed it down to anyone but Turnbull. Haven’t quite worked out what date the ETS should come in as long as it is after the actual date of implementation. Now they have given the go ahead for the religious right to run the Shadow Cabinet in Queensland. All this while rocketing to 43% 2PP.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24172458-5006786,00.html
Well lets examine the facts shall we:
Aboriginal affairs - where is the evidence or more importantly the money to show that Australia (ie our government) has spent anything or done anything extra to address Aboriginal disadvantage: ANSWER NIL
Kyoto - the government courageously signed a piece of paper for a target which we were already meeting. Other than that a discussion paper about what we might do.
WorkChoices - listen to the ACTU, the government aint planning on changing a whole lot.
BOTTOM LINE: It does add up to about 2 websites and some press releases.
ESJ on the other side we have had nine months of an anyone but Turnbull candidate fighting to hold his position against an as yet undecided anyone but Turnbull candidate and the fight goes on over the spoils of defeat.
What about an increase in pensions and the way the increase is assessed. A stop to an interest rate increase and soon to a decrease. A responsible Budget. Continued review of the Taxation, Pensions and other Government departments.
Defeat of Fuel Watch in the Senate would be excellent for the Gubbies:
1. It would probably only make a marginal difference to the price of fuel anyway but the marginal difference would have been a difference in favour of the motorists. Motorists will feel that they may have missed out on something good.
2. If it stops petrol prices from going down, even marginally, it contributes to a coherent pricing signal on greenhouse emissions.
3. It would show Mr X that his bluff will be called from time to time.
4. It demonstrates that the opposition is good at opposing something, anything.
5. It sets up a DD trigger which will make the next set of senate deal making marginally more easy for the Gubbies. It also provides them with more options over timing of the next election.
6. It provides the Government with a reasonable response to the narrative that they are doing bugger all.
Article on Mr Ruddock in the antiGG today stating that he sort of regretted incarcerating the kiddies. The human face of Howard/Costello.
BTW are kiddies still being incarcerated? Is this one that can be added to the websites only list?
Come on - this government should be renamed the Gunners as in we are gunna do this and were gunna do that…
Yep - but as the Liberals will soon find out detailed policy deevlopment is very hard withouth the Public Service to do it for you…
Hence, a number of ALP policies lacked the detailed implementation plans necessary. However, once the Public service figures out hte nuts and bolts I think we’ll see a fair bit of movement.
ETS is a classic example. Not Shock and Awe, but we’re actually getting very close to full on implementation.
ESJ the opposition should be renamed the Gladiatears - always glad to tear each other apart.
Grocery watch will be good according to Peter Martin. To really turn the screws on the grocery duopoly the website should include things like the Adelaide Central Market and Farmers Markets.
How anyone could buy meat, fruit & veg from supermarkets is beyond me {shudder}
Local butcher 2 doors down reckons the “‘Fresh’ Food People” keep meat for years at times and they no longer sell Jonathan apples which cannot be stored!
The first item of news is about the view of our Defence Minister on proportional representation (favourable).
http://fairvotecanada.org/en/
So, ESJ what would you have Labor do in the first 9 months of office? List the achievements they could have done without proper planning.
ESJ, what are the changes Labor is making to Workchoices? You’re the one saying it is minimal well let us know how minimal.
A huge budget surplus based on $7Bn savings not a bad start. Lots of little things done as has been reported by ‘Bludgers. An ETS to be planned for, already bearing fruit in the announcement of:
From ABC website:
“Aust firm unveils plans to build ‘world’s biggest solar plant’
“An Australian engineering firm has announced plans to build what it says would be the world’s biggest solar plant in Australia within three years.
“Worley Parsons has launched a study into finding possible sites to host the $1 billion plant.
“”The study is backed by nine Australian companies including miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.
“The Managing Director of the Worley Parson’s sustainability arm, Peter Meurs, says the project is ambitious.
“It could provide power for 300,000 homes - each power station - and our vision is that Australia’s a suitable place for this and we could build up to 34 of these power stations by 2020,” he said.”
Not bad for 9 months
Ronster
I’d be a bit worried about how much of a “chick magnet” you really are if Caroline is not enamoured by your charms. She strikes me as kind of desperate. I’m looking forward to hearing her views on how Ruddski has destroyed the World’s Greatest Treasurers legacy in nine months.
ESJ
If you were trout fishing you would be doing pretty well with your current lure, plenty of strikes, plenty of hookups, you are reeling a few in, and you are avoiding getting your feet wet. Lures are about deception and the nice thing about your lure is the excellent faux narrative *grin*.
247 Boerwar - I agree with that. I asked those questions of ESJ to show just that. I’m not really expecting to receive detailed answers to them. Of course I could be wrong but I doubt it. I’m expecting one liners and a personal attack on my views, that’s how the game is played I guess.
Don’t have a link yet, but apparently, new consumer confidence data has just be released and it’s climbed by around 9%, which, from memory, means it’s higher than when the Messiah was last swinging in the Treasury hammock.
So much for all the Howard Party’s recession blatherings.
Beorwar,
If you are looking for friendly, intelligent debate on the “end of the empire”.
please try US Pollbludger site:-
SNIP: Link to bogus “Pollbludger” site deleted.
Trying to get any sense out of rusted on party paid hacks can be very futile,
although very informative and revealing.
enjoy
ESJ,
And the libs can be the “Druthers”. You know, they’d “druther” be in office than facing years of irrelevance. They’d “druther” stay irrelevant than develop policy.
Mayoferal,
Unforunately not…. It’s higher than last month but pretty bad overall.
We’ve increased to only marginally below the 2001 trough (US recession and 9/11) and except for that haven’t been this low since 1993.
the judge.
The site you mention is a parasite. William has politely asked them on a number of occaissions to desist from using the PB name and brand. However, they have basically given him the two finger salute.
It seems the operators and posters there are happy to steal someones reputation and intellectual property rights in order to further their own personal agendas.
I see them as a den of thieves.
Its about time James Ron and th Ronnettes took at big run at Australian lite Greens and there shallow moralistic obstructions to Sir Kevin and sound policy
in just last 2 weeks
SENATE: Lite greens oppose FuelWatch because they are unconvinced FuelWatch would lead to a reduction in petrol prices !!
What sort of policy purity is that ? (to keep little people motorists uninformed)
WA: Lite Greens claim they oppose uranium mining , yet ar talking to WA Liberals who FAVOR unranium mining , about giving them preferences Why ? because Labor favours exploration , but has no comittment to actual mining !!
What sort of policy purity is that ?
NT: Lite Greens oppose NT unranium dump , yet allow open preferences & so some of there preferenses go to NT Liberals who FAVOR a NT uranium dump ,
yet Labor opposes a unranium dump !!
What sort of policy purity is that ?
NT: Lite Greens oppose NT destroying Daly River with Development , yet allow “open preferences” & so some of there preferenses go to NT Liberals who FAVOR destroying Daly river with Develapment (yet Labor opposes th Daley river Development !!
What sort of policy purity is that ?
SOLAR STATION: 1 billion announcement last nite , do Lite Greens say thats great !! NO Christine Milne cmoes onto Lateline criticising Rudd he should do more for heavens sake each power station powers 3000,000 homes , plan 34 thats 10 million homes of solar enegy creates and this lite Green dill makes a lame criticism , how cras and empty
Ronnettes come out and slap down these lite Greens , Hell Brenda Nelson must be in charge of th lite Greens Party also EVERY one of these 5 lite Greens stanses ar hypocriticol and anti Labor with no intelectual purity
Here is a link about consumer confidence. Let’s see what Caroline makes of it. I thought consumer confidence went down in a recession but I don’t know much about economics.
Australian consumer confidence jumped in August from a 16-year low as fuel prices fell and the central bank signaled it may cut interest rates.
The sentiment index climbed 9.1 percent from July to 86.2 points, the biggest increase in almost two years, according to a Westpac Banking Corp. and Melbourne Institute survey released today in Sydney. It is the sixth straight reading of less than 100, showing pessimists still outnumber optimists.
Australian Consumer Sentiment Rises 9.1% on Fuel Drop
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=ajnj.wRREiKY&refer=home
Consumer Sentiment did fall 6.7% last month….
It’s sort of like the OO’s reports of massive increases in Nelson’s popularity from 7% to 12%….
Well, at least consumer confidence is heading in the right direction. Still, it would be good if it got above 100 sometime soon…
At the moment we’re sitting in a nice little spot. The falling oil price has more than offset the fall in the AUD. Hence, we can have rate cuts and falling oil prices.
However, if oil even stabilises while we have an easing cycle the fall in the dollar will see the petrol prices rise. That will be less good for sentiment.
Fuelwatch definitely DOA:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24173996-601,00.html
Fielding joins Xenophon in rejecting Fuelwatch…
And the NRMA unhappy about Fuelwatch being blocked:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/nrma-blasts-decision-to-block-fuelwatch/2008/08/13/1218306956422.html
Hmm - maybe the politics of Fuelwatch will play out for the Ruddster - he can blame the Libs for knocking it back without taking the risk of it not working at all…
the judge @ 250, thank you, but do you have a view about GG’s point @ 253?
Thomas Paine (221),
The “Rudd doesn’t seem to have done much” is the same line tried against the Bracks Government in Victoria. It is the twin of “Labor has no policies”. People’s ideas are often formed uncritically by repeated exposure to generalised messages to such an extent that the belief engendered comes to be regarded as unarguable fact. My favourite example is the belief that militant teachers unions control state Labor governments and win massive privileges for teachers – utterly contrary to the facts, but firmly believed on the Andrew Bolt Forum and in the editorial offices of The Australian.
However, this “Labor hasn’t done anything” belief will not take hold because what Labor will have done by the next election will be obvious to all who can read and see, just as the benefits of Labor in Victoria have been obvious: even my dog seems them when I take him for his walk past all the brand-new Labor Government built infrastructure in my town. Steve Bracks won two landslides despite the oft-expressed belief that he had done nothing. Kevin Rudd will end up doing a lot, and trivial stuff like FuelWatch and GroceryChoices won’t come into the equation in the long run.
Boerwar @ 262,
As a occasional commenter on the other site, I can tell you that GG gives a less-than-partial account of its operation.
I’m not sure if William has expressed a wish to be disaffiliated from it - although I note that the link to that site from here has disappeared recently.
However, the people (and the debate) there are interesting, if a little one-sided (I think I’m the most conservative blogger on that site). But they do come up with good points and the discussion about Russia and Georgia is informative…
Somewhere in the distant mists of memory I seem to recall a view that the consumer confidence index trends are good predictors of voting intentions. Does anyone know if there is a skerrick of validity in this dredged up bit of the past?
Swing Lowe
Completely agree with 264.
However, I did see a few occasions where William’s posts were moderated and binned. The irony of the Pollbludger having his own posts deleted from a site named after him was lost on the denizens of the site. They really need to change the name.
Swing Lowe,
I may be partisan, but I am right on this occaission. If you need verification please refer to their editorial thread for the self serving justifications of their LEGAL SNIP … and their unseemly abuse at William for simply asking that his rights be respected.
Yes Boerwar,
I’d say #253 was a ringing endorsement.
Let’s just say jealousy and envy might be a motivation for such misinformation.
Diogenes and Swing Lowe
GG in #253 made an unqualified assertion , and in #267 backed it I hav not seen GG ever make wild asserions about on subject , so I assume he is 100% correct
Yous two now can continue posting , but with now pre knowledge of GG’s post information of shabby (at th minimum) treatment of our moderator , and shame on you if you do
as for th Judge , obbviously a generic ‘mole’ role here
OK, thanks guys, I’ll have a look at the site and a tad foreconfused is forearmed.
Comment referring to previous comment that got a LEGAL SNIP deleted - PB
Whilst I may not totally agree with everything that goes on at the US site (such as binning William’s comments), it does serve a purpose - a forum to discuss the US elections amongst fellow Aussies (without putting up with the News Ltd trolls).
As for William’s intellectual property rights being infringed, I think that’s more of a personal issue between William and the editor(s) of the site that should be settled between them (and not something for us to comment on). That said, speaking as a lawyer, it isn’t quite the open-and-shut case of “trademark infringement” that GG makes it out to be - due to various legal reasons (jurisdiction, commercial benefit, etc.)
SNIP: Reference to previous comment that got a LEGAL SNIP removed - PB
So, the point of this post is, blog away there if you want to have a in-depth (if slightly dull and one-sided) discussion on US politics and also go there if you want to see a variety of views on Russia-Georgia conflict…
SNIP: Comment refers to previous comment that got a LEGAL SNIP - PB
The Overington live blog is arguing about FuelWatch and GroceryWatch. Her argument is, repeatedly, that providing information on prices “is not the business of Government”. Why not?
Diog - maybe she should start screaming like a mad harpie over abolishing the ABS then.
Dunno what she thinks the CPI is if not price information published by government.
Possum
Her next argument was that GroceryWatch would just be a great big tax-payer funded advertisement for Aldi, which is German (as if that was relevant). She then says we don’t need to hear this because we all know Aldi is cheaper anyway!!
LEGAL SNIP - PB
But everyone is entitled to their own ethics and opinions regarless of how sleazy they may be.
Totally agree Chris. Those pushing the ‘done nothing’ barrow probably believe the statement to be absolutely true, but that’s because they dismiss everything that the government HAS done as being nothing if they don’t agree with it (e.g. apology, kick off abolishing WC, sign Kyoto). It’s not that the govt has done nothing, it’s just that to the haters they’ve done nothing that they agree with (and will contort their beliefs accordingly as the government keeps doing things).
That’s good, GG. Work the diminished responsibility angle. Your’e not drunk are you?
Just had a quick perusal …
can’t believe discussion about the US site is still topical!
Move on fellas.
An excellent and balance article on the individual vs the collective.
Harmony and the Dream, By DAVID BROOKS
The rise of China isn’t only an economic event. It’s a cultural one. The ideal of a harmonious collective may turn out to be as attractive as the ideal of the American Dream.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/12/opinion/12brooks.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
Finns
Thanks for that article. Absolutely fascinating. It’s a shame that he didn’t include references to some of those ideas between the basis of individualistic and collective societies. I would love to read more on them. I’m sure I can at least find the evolutionary psychology basis for his comments about contagions.
Rejecting the concerns of the senator whoes support you need and essentially calling them an idiot, probally isn’t the best strategy to gain their vote.
To be perfectly honest, I’m thinking that the Rudd government would privately be thrilled about the defeat in the Senate of Fuelwatch.
With it about to get defeated, Rudd can start blaming an “obstructionist” Senate, much like every recent PM has, saying that they have not allowed the government to act on helping reduce fuel costs for ‘working families’. As such, the fault now lies not with the government for not doing anything but with the Opposition for stopping the scheme from coming into force (expect the NRMA to assist the government with the attacks).
However, the added benefit for Rudd is that no one ever gets to find out whether the scheme actually works - which means no political downside for Rudd (from what was beginning to look like a dud policy initiative).
Hence, Albanese’s aggressive tone against Xenophon - he doesn’t want Mr X to support the bill; instead, he wants to ensure that he doesn’t have a change of heart…
285 Swing Lowe - I agree. It’s not a bad thing for the government.
Any views on the odds of a double dissolution? Despite comments about ALP’s lead “dropping” to 57/43 that is still higher than the polls at election time. If carpenter gets returned in WA does anyone think Rudd would be tempted to take on his formidable opponent Nelson in an early election?
TW,
Confronted with the facts, you resort to abuse. Good for you.
Socrates,
What issue is Rudd going to pull the trigger over?
It can’t be Workchoices, coz the Liberals will allow it to pass.
It won’t be Fuelwatch or Grocerywatch, coz they’re both policy duds (IMHO).
It needs to be over something substantive - like if Rudd attempted to lift the compulsory superannuation rate to 12%…
Comment referring to previous comment that got a LEGAL SNIP removed - PB
286
gary- you mind reader you
Fate of FuelWatch in Liberal hands: Rudd
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/13/2334002.htm?section=justin
ETS is looking the most likely to me.
I think Rudd would prefer not to go to election straight efter it’s introduction, since it will increase electricity prices and the like.
So if he can convince the Liberals to block it in the Senate (when 80% of the population want it) he will then have all the necessary requirements filled:
- Popular with electorate
- Reasonably important (enough so that the electorate doesn’t begrudge having to vote about it)
- Liberals find the topic awkward
Swing Lowe & Diogenes
please do not be hypocritical “playing” word games
Fact is Moderator actualy closed his US thread completely down because as he efectively said , those posters were so childish & pety So much so it had become almost a fulltime job for our moderator to moderate them (and our Moderator was unpaid by th way)
Then , our Moderator being a ’softy’ and good guy , helps these undeserving posters to set up there own thread !!! Even supplying plug in & computer program info to them to set up there own thread on the internet !! And also even gives them a link , and even lends temporarily his PB brand name , and so genorosly all this by William to help them get started !
But thereafter , there ‘childish’ nonsense continues he believes on there own Site , so quite properly our moderator wants his PB brand name back after a month that he’s temporarily lent anyway , so that his brand name is kept to what standards he desires & is quite entitled to decide
NOW all this undeserving Gilligans group had to do is say to william is “yes we’ll do so immediately and thanks very much William we reely appreciate your help and also appreciate you lending temporarily your PB brand name”
No not thems , he gets efectively insulted by “stalling’ , Gilligans did not give back th temporarily lent PB brand name as requested , and so hav efectively refused
Such behavour is both an actionable civil matter and a gross breach of ethics ANY poster who wishs to condone such apalling behavour , (when our moderator has been so good to them and continuing to be to us in supplying us an informative ‘oz’ site for free) by continuing to also post there as well , knowing th above is both principals selfish and does not apply basic decency & ethics , (instead of posting at one or th other)
So Diogenes & Swing Lowe , now thats its all laid out here , do not hide behind a lame “oh its got nothing to do with me” non ethical lame excuse , get off th bloody fence , and show principal
RA,
The only problem with going to a DD over ETS is that the Libs can run the mother of all scare campaigns over the potential effects of implementing one.
All the Libs need to do is to get some half-baked consulting firm to run some “plausible” but unlikely projections that show the ETS ruining the Australian economy and shifting Aussie jobs overseas and it’s the new environmental Tampa.
It seems smarter to wait for the ETS to come through and wait until people realise that the world isn’t about to fall in. Hence, Rudd’s haste in ensuring that the ETS comes in in 2010 rather than 2011 (or 2012)…
IW,
Any reason you can’t confront the uncomfortable facts in this case?
Much easier to abuse me, eh?
Good for you.
Grocerywatch will be good LOL
It cost millions to publish the price of goods in each store for THE LAST WEEK!!!!
so when you drive from Sydney to Parramatta to buy your orange for $1 less, you will find out that the sale is now off, and it is now cheaper in Sydney….. that is one of the stupidest plans of all time
a. most people buy groceries at their work, on the way home or at their nearest supermarket, the time lost to drive an hour to buy grocery so it is cheaper is lunacy
b. supermarket has weekly sales, you are much better off getting the brochures of Coles/ Woolworth/ iga etc on the net, so people know when the sale is on. printing of last week’s “sales” prices is a waste of money
c. It is anti-competitive, Coles and Woolworth can just give the government their sales brochure and report for all 300 of thier stores, meanwhile an independant grocer will have to spend time to report how much they are charging to the government.
All it really is is to let Rudd waste your money so it look like he is doing something, when he should not have lie and implied he would do something about grocery prices
really rankles the born to rule set doesnt it dovif
why the idea of giving people unbiased information and comparisons is just too much
next they will demand that they have the right to vote
peasants eh what old chap?
GG,
consider this: when cry babies are confronted with a truthful description of their behaviour, they shriek “abuse, abuse!” (This, they find, is easier than a mature acknowledgement of their immaturity.)
Anyway, I would have expected more strength of character - dare I say, more forbearance - from a self-appointed Moses of the Masses.
My advice to you is be brave, catch the dawn punt to Gilligans Island and … RAISE HELL.
Totally unsupported factoid. Some people, yes, but “most”?
You miss the point. If shoppers can compare prices they have the opportunity to be bloody-minded about who is a few bucks dearer. I suggest quite a few would relish the opportunity.
You are talking through your hat. The goverrnment does not require reporting. If they did they would require a special law to get Grocery Choice up and running (as they do with Fuel Watch). They send “secret shoppers” around at random times to do the price watching. Cost free to the supermarket, unless they’re overcharging.
To me, the squwarking by the retailers is disingenuous. If Grocery Choice would have no effect, then when prices did not come down the retailers could crow that their prices were fair. What they are afarid of is clearly that extra competitive pressure will be put upon them.
All the rest is bull$hit, like the Liquor Retailers’ complaining about increased sales of spirits under the alcopops tax. If either scheme was so advantageous to the respective industry retailers, as they claimed, you’d think they’d shut up about it and ride the wave of increased profits.
Add in petrol (which both of the major supermarket chains tie-into their grocery businesses) via Fuel Watch, and you’d have a perfect storm of consumer information, which people could use or not, as they chose. As it is now we have no choice…. back the future of the “weekly petrol cycle”, price-gouging of fresh food (in particular) by the majors, and consumer unawareness that perhaps just up the road or around the corned (not from Sydney to Parramatta like some idiot said above) they might save a few bob on their weekly shop and keep the bastards honest.
No chance of that now. I hope the Libs and their trogs in support are proud of themselves.
As said in Labors press release, they are reporting “last weeks prices weekly”
It might work in place where sales never happens, but to spend $100 million to tell us the prices that was on sale at supermarket last week is lunacy
Bushfire Bill - where do you do your grocery shopping?
IW,
I have opinions and am not afraid to use them. You may disagree with them, but they are blunt, forthright and to the point.
If Moses came down from the mount today and said he had Ten Commandments, you would obviously disagree with and try to get around the one about “not covetting thy neighbour’s ass”.
Allegorically, that is what this issue is about.
GG, if “Moses came down from the mount today and said he had Ten Commandments”, they’d dope him up and send him to the nearest psych ward (or, equivalently, promote him to cardinal)!
But seriously, methinks you’re a little hung up on asses. Child psychologists would refer to this as evidence of the “donkey phase”.
Or could it be that, gasp, you were referring to something else?
Anyway, keep your pecker up old boy. It’s not that the residents of the other place don’t like you, it’s just that they don’t understand you. I don’t mean the cry baby you. I mean the broad-shouldered, courageous, self-anointed vanquisher of chardonnay socialism you.
oh - it was about the neighbour’s DONKEY….
thank god for that - you should see`the size of him.
POSTERS
My #293 post was very detailed
IF it is inaccurate , William would say its inaccurate
IF it is accurate , any sensible poster knows why nothing is said
I would NOT hav said anything either , but a succession of Gilligans have come here today and not told th truth or attacked GG who did tell th truth
They ar Th Judge , Turning Worm and Inner Westie
Just because th truth is unpalatable , still makes it th truth Kevin Rudd stands for something postive including principals , hope so do his supporters
ron and GG -
it’s your principles that I so admire:
You may like to borrow my horse sometime…
you know- the High one.
300 Dovif
Where do you get the idea of $100m? I have seen $13m reported for 4 years IIRC
And it will work.
Well, this sh*tfight obviously has some passionate history behind it. I ain’t gonna get involved, other than to say that it is a bit rude of The Other Site to use the ‘pollbludger’ name, (though I seriously doubt it is illegal). With all those articulate brains and imagination, couldn’t they have come up with something a little original?
Jen, don’t encourage GG with talk of horses as these are related to asses and ass is another name for donkey.
Ron, thankyou for today’s word quiz. So far, your posts have helped to delay my London-to-a-brick dementia by at least five years. And just for the record, I am not a resident of, nor am I even an infrequent visitor of, your Troubled Island Home. I’m just an amused bystander.
Ron
I don’t think they should use the PB name. But I don’t think it’s a hanging offense. Just because I don’t agree with one of their decisions doesn’t mean I would boycott them.
It’s a bit like Rudd not boycotting the Beijing Olympics.
Anyway, apologies all. I’m clogging bandwidth with unpoll-ished flotsam.
Signing out …
No more on Gilligan’s Island please - certainly no more promotion of it. I should acknowledge that a particular description by GG of their actions was overreaching, and have removed it and a number of other references to it.
Anyway fellas.
I’m done.
This has become an ongoing shitfight over what was originally about the Clinton vs Obama race, and got way too personal.
I have had a great time with some/many of the posters on William’s wonderful site, but draw the line at SNIP: reference to previously snipped statements removed - PB
Shows how low it’s got.
Cheers, and all the best.
Jen.
Just Me
you ar a person of principal
you ar a person of principal
Yes, but no interest.
You need not have at all
Your words were all that were necessary from any person of principal
Does anybody know whether there is any sort of connection between consumer confidence levels and how people are likely to either poll or vote?
Diogenes
“It’s a bit like Rudd not boycotting the Beijing Olympics”
Rudd nor any US politcans threatened that at all In fact th US politcan only suggested to “plan” for boycotting opening ceremony only as a protest over Tibet IF my group of sin “James Ron and th Ronnettes” was tarnished by you putting it up on your alledeged medical quack practise , I’d expect my ‘friends’ of principal to boycott you , so I don’t like your philosophy , give it some contrainess thought
As for Rudd , he gave th Chinese his firm views on tibet as reported on AP very frankly with principal Hope he does same with Russia (re Georgia) and USA (re Iraq) no principal , no soul , thats difference from Rudd vs th rodent , and others
Question is, why is this continually presented in the Oz as a Brendan Nelson problem and not a Liberal problem?
It was a close shave, but even in the NT, which once was uncontested CLP terrain, Labor won again. When are we going to see write-ups for what is the real problem, the one that should be staring commentators in the face? That the Liberal Party is just too right-wing for the electorate.
Remember how Labor - which still had all 8 state and territory governments - was subjected to column after column about how it needed to change everything it believed in if it ever wanted to win federally again? There was a bit of that for the Libs after the election, but I don’t see much soul-searching by our over-represented right-wing commentators.
Dario (278),
You are right, but it goes further than that. Posters on the Andrew Bolt Forum often claim that the state Labor Government has done nothing, I respond with a list of specific facts; e.g., 5,193 extra teachers, funding primary schools to allow prep to year 2 classes to be capped at 21, $1.4 billion in capital expenditure on schools in the first two terms, proportional representation for the Legislative Council, etc. Then they respond by saying the Labor Government has done nothing. It’s a parallel universe.
With the Commonwealth Government, it is a little different because we haven’t even reached the first anniversary yet. But I guarantee that three years from now, with tax reform under way, a national curriculum in place, etc, etc, the same persons will still be telling the world that Labor has done nothing, I will be responding with new specific lists of what it has done and they will be responding to me by stating it has done nothing. The parallel universe lives!
It looks like my amigos are having good time and my horsey has bolted.
Diog, the problem with the West is that they think they have got the mortgage over the wisdom of how a nation should be run and behaved. It was never better said by Dubya: “You either with us or against us”.
Chris Curtis @ 318
The ‘labour has done nothing’ story is an interesting one, and the idea of a parallel universe is probably useful to contemplate. I suggest that the parallel universe is an experiential one deliberately set at a personal level. It has its own validity and is powerful.
‘Labour has done nothing,’ is useful because it is like a mantra and can be repeated endlessly and requires no conscious thought.
I suspect that it is not necessarily about reason or reasoning. Responding by listing things done may miss the point. The appropriate response would be cue into the experiences of those to whom the mantra is targetted. This can be difficult if people are experiencing increased petrol prices, increased grocery prices, increased credit prices and so on.
The mantra is also instantly accessible to anyone who on a personal level does not experience a changed impact from government actions. This is a corollary of the mantra: ‘What has labour ever done for you/me?’
The other powerful thing the mantra does is that it establishes a timeframe: “NOW”. This is useful for opponents of the Gubbies for two reasons. The first is that it links in a temporal sense anything currently unpleasant to the Gubbies and not to erstwhile folk. It also creates a sense of ‘Why not already?’ This is what I was sort of getting at when I commenting on the cleverness of ESJ’s ‘faux’ narrative. As soon as you engage you have lost ground on the issue of timing and accountability.
The mantra is also powerful because it simplifies things and lots of folk like things simplified. Complexity bewilders.
I suggest also that the mantra has emotional rather than rational power because plenty of people respond to it by offering lists of things done, despite plenty of evidence that providing lists of things does not stop the chanting.
If the above makes some sort of sense, then responding by providing lists of things done does a couple of things: (1) it shows that the provider of lists just does not get it; (2) it reinforces the power of the mantra in the mind of the chanter.
If so, the correct response to the mantra is for the Gubbies to ensure that punters have the sort of experiences they want.
Jen, if you happen to drift over to this thread for a read, I’m sorry that you have pulled the plug.
“THE Federal Government says FuelWatch is needed to end “effective collusion” by big oil, as independent senators vow to scuttle the scheme.”
This approach will carry a lot of weight in the electorate. It is up to the opponents now to prove this wrong.
Boerwar @ 320
Interesting comments. But I would not dismiss the power of evidence and reason so hastily. They often don’t persuade immediately (and for some, not at all), but persistent evidence based reasoning is hard for most to deny in the long run. For example, climate change.
Keeping a list of the substantial policy decisions Labor has implemented to hand for ready use in such debates is a very useful and effective tactic, as long as you do not expect instant or unambiguous results, or waves of political conversions. By forcing your opponents into irrational denial, you reduce their ability to persuade the less committed. Your main aim is not to change the minds of your hardcore opponents, that is a waste of resources, but to persuade the less committed and the borderline undecided. Why do you think political parties spend such disproportionate effort on the swinging voters?
It is a grossly inefficient use of time and energy trying to convert the Bolts, Ackermans, Devines, Shanahans, and Albrechtsens of this world, or their adoring flocks.
Perhaps positing a question like “Would Howard have done it differently?” would also highliught the things that have been done.
As soon as you can make them list the things that Howards wouldn’t have done, they are creating their own list. Now, hard-core right wing types will take this entire list as mistakes, but the more moderate types can then be asked
Are you glad we stopped locking up children?
Do you think Rudd was right to end Workchoices?
Since they themselves provided the list it’s harder then to argue Rudd is not doing anything.
William
Putting aside the US site fracas you referred to above, can I suggest that, if it is possible and you know a legal friend, that you protect your “Poll Bludger” name by whatever means affordable? I think you have achieved a level of balance and quality which is above the norm. We all respect your efforts to keep the site balanced, even when we are told to tone things down. The fact that there have already been several instances of journalists trolling through here for ideas shows that others recognise its value too.
Boerwar
I found this study from Portugal which says “no”, at least in Portugal. They say Rudd (being left-wing) would be punished for increasing unemployment more than inflation (the opposite being true for right-wing). For all governments, the past and present is more important than the future in evaluating their performance.
The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=359361
Boerwar,
You have given me food for thought. I am an excessively logical person, even though the evidence for illogical thinking everywhere hits me in the face. Mantras occur throughout political discourse as summaries that save the need for research and thought. I do not expect to convince the rusted on, but I expect that there are many readers of websites who never post and who are open to argument.
I am not able to cue the experience of those with whom I dispute because their experiences are not clear: all the reader gets is the repetition of the slogans.
The mantra-chanters will not stop, but the citizenry at large are not convinced and, if my assessment of the Commonwealth Government’s agenda is correct, the citizenry will not be misled by the mantras. Indeed, your mention of petrol and grocery prices is a good example of an issue that the government can do little about, and it deserves the heat it takes on this matter. My point is that bigger issues will decide the election, and they will work in Labor’s favour.
I will keep responding with facts, not always on lists, for they can work. I have been conducting a pretty vigorous defence of what Labor’s computer policy is, and it is now rare for people to claim falsely that Kevin Rudd promised to give everyone a laptop or that he promised to give every student a computer or that people who do not pay any tax because of their low income will not get the education tax refund. There are still those who claim that the promise has been broken; e.g., they state that the policy has suddenly become “access to”, when “access to” was mentioned in the media release before the election.
Just Me (323),
I agree with you. My aim is to convince the swingers, not the rusted-ons.
Rates Analyst (324),
Your point is valid, but references to John Howard would not be relevant on the issue I am dealing with.
Boerwar asks, “Does anybody know whether there is any sort of connection between consumer confidence levels and how people are likely to either poll or vote?”
Oooh.. pick me, pick me!
According to a few quick regressions of the newspoll data since November 1985 against consumer confidence data, a 10% increase in consumer confidence has, on average over the last 22.5 years of Newspoll, led to a 1.2% increase in the primary vote of the party in government, as well as a 1.5% decrease in the primary vote of the opposition.
They’re both statistically significant relationships.
Socrates
#325
Your literary proses , and as with that of your Ancestor Socrates , very well said and thoughtfully so , both in words and in underlying principal and spirit , compliment
#325 - [that you protect your “Poll Bludger” name by whatever means affordable? - the first thing you do is that you dont “lend” your brand to other site, period. Especially to an amateurish site that has an “Editor in Chief”. WTF, are talking about NYT, WSJ, The Times, AFR?
328
Possum Comitatus
Very interesting Poss. Do you have any peak periods where the confidence level rose appreciably yet the government pop vote remained steady or fell? If so it’d be interesting to see what the political issues were for that period.
Just Me @ 323 and Chris Curtis @ 327
Thank you. If reason didn’t come into it I wouldn’t be here!
I think there are probably different groups of people out there. Some of the folk would probably fit into my story quite handily. Others would fit into your story in the sense that they would be somewhat open to knowing what is really going on. For the latter folk it is useful to have lists of things done. I would probably agree with you that the former group are rusted on and the latter group might fit into swinging voters.
Reflecting on it some more, I believe the real question is whether mantras help establish the agenda and help set or reinforce parameters of the debate. If so, ‘Labour has done nothing,’ is a clever way of establishing an agenda, diverting effort and creating the bounds of the debate. An alternative is that mantras don’t do much more than act as a signal for the converted that: ‘Here is another tribe member!’ and the mantra acts as a mild reinforcer.
I would not discard the importance of connecting the story with what individuals experience.
Rates Analyst @ 324 That would be an interesting list to see.
Diogenes @ 326 thank you for that. It demonstrates that what I was thinking was wrong. Intuitively, I would have thought that there was a connection.
But then, I have just noticed Possum’s @ 328 and thank goodness for that.
FINNS
#319
“It looks like my amigos are having good time
Diog, the problem with the West is that they think they have got the mortgage over the wisdom of how a nation should be run and behaved.”
“good time” yes when telling th truth to petals who spread false informaton Naturaly you are unsupprised my very detailed #293 has not been challenged on accuracy by anyone , not even a single word
“mortgage over the wisdom” IF you ar a Palestinian whose lived in Gaza for 40 year in barbaric conditions , no food or water for your kids , no schooling for them , no future job oportinities for dems , you also wuld be inspired by George Bush’s and curent 2 shallow Pres. candidates principals condemning human rights abuses (but only usualy where there is oil wells)
I think human rights abuses involving mass deaths like Iraq (US) , Zimbarbe , Ruwanda (UN/US) , Georgia (Russia) ar much much worse by comparison in comparisons , than restricton of freedoms & fewer daths in Tibet , and yet th USA seem oblivous to th contradiction Believe Rudd will be equaly firm through diplonatic channels condemning all human rights abuses including first 4 above Double standards on principals and decency flourish everywhere in world , which is partly why dsound solutions don’t occur
Blocking Fuelwatch may actually benefit the government long-term.
Most Sandgropers think it’s great ands will be peeved that ‘their’ idea has been canned nationally which may get them onside, remembering that they were lukewarm about Labor in the election.
It can also be something to use to bring Xenephon down a peg or two in SA. IMHO, he’s been much over rated here. He had a few small victories, but if you look at the major issues he campaigned on he’s had little if any effect. Apparently, he really works at helping people at the individual level which accounts for much of the communities high opinion of him, but on the bigger picture he’s more show than substance.
Labor could do well to hint that he’s: the best friend the oil companies have ever had
As for the Labor’s done nothing. chant, it sure would help if they promoted their achievements more.
Yesterdays announcement of the proposed 34 $1 billion solar plants being an example. Why haven’t Rudd, Wong and Garrett been all over the media like a rash crowing about this being the first fruits of the government’s ETS, and making a big deal about it proves that tackling CC is not all doom and gloom. That it can be very good for business and jobs, too. And how it could be bigger than Labor’s previous great energy initiative, the Snowy Mountains Scheme.
BTW-this is no idle comparison. The Snowy cost around $800 million spread over 25 years (1949-74). Not sure what that is in today’s money, but I’m guessing it’s less than $34 billion.
Reflecting on it some more, I believe the real question is whether mantras help establish the agenda and help set or reinforce parameters of the debate. If so, ‘Labour has done nothing,’ is a clever way of establishing an agenda, diverting effort and creating the bounds of the debate. An alternative is that mantras don’t do much more than act as a signal for the converted that: ‘Here is another tribe member!’ and the mantra acts as a mild reinforcer.
I am inclined to the alternative interpretation, at least for the longer term. I do agree that in the short term mantras and slogans can sway some people for long enough to significantly influence their immediate choices, but this tactic remains largely a self-justifying and self-reinforcing rhetorical behaviour.
After a while it becomes easy to produce an unarguable list of substantial policy decisions to rebut the claim. Even if they do not agree with those policies, most will acknowledge that they were implemented (or at least their implementation was genuinely attempted, but foiled by the dastardly opposition/independent senators, oooooo, boogyman!).
Poss 328
Very interesting. I don’t claim to have done any detailed regression statistics but I looked at the relationship between Real Average Wages and election results back in the mid-1990s. If my calculations were correct there were only four occaisions since 1910 when the government wasn’t reelected if that statistic was going up, or defeated if it was going down. Trouble was, ABS stopped collating the data after 1978 (from memory) with the shift to productivity based wage increases. My estimated reconstruction was the basis for the conclusions after then.
fieldmouse and mr x have just ensured they are seen as out of touch and more in tune with big busines
joe and josephine average are going to pretty pissed me thinks
maybe they are angling for leadership of the fibs????
Steve K, the consumer confidence index has over 25 periods where it’s moved dramatically (over 10% within 2 months) going back to 1985.
It’s a series with enormous amounts of monthly variation in it.
Socrates - that’s interesting - fits into that whole “good times make for easy government” thing that tends to happen a fair bit.
Ron 329
Thanks I don’t pretend to be as wise as Socrates, so I’ll just be happy if I can know what I don’t know
Mayo Feral @ 334
We should not forget what a free ride Howard/Costello had from gouging the public purse for what was often close to party political PR. Squillions.
The Gubbies’ climate change ads should be sending shivers up the spines of Nelson, Turnbull, Tip & Co. Well, OK, in the absence of spines, it should be sending shivers up their something or others.
Mayo 334
I agree with your comments about Labor mentioning its successes. I mention again one I said the other day - Labor appears to have now changed the transport funding rules so that federal funds can be used to examine public transprot as a solution to urban congestion. I say “appears” because I have seen no policy announcement. Yet this is a major step forward over the previous government, on both environmental and economic efficiency grounds.
Just me @ 335
The question might be: ‘Are the two are necessarily mutually exclusive?’ If not, the trick to being an effective communicator/debater/disputer/persuader might be to know which bit of the terrain you are travelling through.
gusface
Fielding, of note is that libs recently defected to Family First in SA and WA claiming that the Liberal Party was not “conservative” enough anymore. Is Fielding seeking to take FF to the right of the Liberals. May be a dangerous move, from what I recall more FF preferences went to labor than to liberal. Fielding may not worry about losing left supporters if he believes he can pick up a net gain by moving further to the right.
Mr X, is a string anti-poker machines campaigner which got him elected. Of the many things they ask for is more info for gamblers, eg time spent money spent etc. Be strange for him to deny information to consumers for petrol.
gusface
Fielding, of note is that libs recently defected to Family First in SA and WA claiming that the Liberal Party was not “conservative” enough anymore. Is Fielding seeking to take FF to the right of the Liberals. May be a dangerous move, from what I recall more FF preferences went to labor than to liberal. Fielding may not worry about losing left supporters if he believes he can pick up a net gain by moving further to the right.
Mr X, is a string anti-poker machines campaigner which got him elected. Of the many things they ask for is more info for gamblers, eg time spent money spent etc. Be strange for him to deny information to consumers for petrol.
Considering Justme 335s comment, I think the “Labor has done nothing” line illustrates just how desperate the Liberals and their paid media cronies have become. First its false - there have been a lot of policy changes, that will take some time to bear fruit, but the direction has changed.
Second though, it shows that the Libs don’t actually want to have a policy debate - they just want to go back to soundbites. Maybe because they don’t actually have any internal concensus on what their own policies should be?
Rod
I would observe from my time in Adelaide so far that Xenophon is a sharp politician, quick on the populist gimmick. He does care about a few issues, but after that, will go what he sees as the popular route. Hence his stand on Fuelwatch doesn’t mean a lot IMO.
Fielding on the other hand IS more conservative than the Liberals. It isn’t a change, thats his true form - economically conservative and socially very conservative. Anyone who understands how FF came about and who is behind them will know why. “Fundys First” is their real name IMO.
I must admit I had hopes that Xenophon would be a voice of reason in the Senate and wouldn’t be blocking bills unless it was necessary and guided by some high principal.
It is simply weird his coming out against a minor measure like Fuel Watch which probably at worst will be neutral in effect but at least gives people the opportunity to look and choose and, it may well have some benefit. And he has not yet sat a single day in the Senate.
Going off half-cocked like that smacks of grandstanding, raising his profile, trying to make himself seem important to the folks back home in SA. Or is it just inexperience and being persuaded by the first person who got into his ear. It seems a bit more like a gimmick than sensible decision.
In any case it is a bad start for him when he really needed to build some credibility beyond poker-machines and gimmicks. I dare say his popularity can as easily disappear as it appeared if he seems to be acting as a blocker of the government.
It also raises the question of the responsibility lone Senators have and especially if they can exercise a balance of power.
My antennas hav been
Go to war or claim there’s an enemy on horizon , Government popularity goes up
Perceive to cause a resession , popularity goes down usualy bye to Government
Make people ‘happy’ , good times , confident to spend , popularity goes up
Do not sell a message , someone else will , and maybe not to your liking
Be naughty and get away with it , and who cares about popularity
Why single out Xenophon? The Greens, Family First, Xenophon and the Coalition all don’t support FuelWatch.
Possum et al
Is the consumer confidence level worked out on how people perceive they are currently travelling or on how they think they’ll be in 12 months? I’ve also seen one for 5 years in the future.
333 Ronster
The US were far from the worst in Rwanda. They just ignored it and allowed it to happen, as well as pulling out the UN. The French actually helped it to happen. Of course, the French strenuously deny this. I think their argument is that they are just a nation of “cheese-eating surrender monkeys”.
France took part in 1994 genocide: Rwandan report
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jOlufsBxNXIw5nXaUj6N_f1QVvuQ
I am also disappointed with Family First on this for similar reasons and the LNP. I am not singling out Xenophon but highlighting that I had higher hopes of him but noted that he is in danger of type-casting himself early as mr gimmick.
The Greens I believe are still yet to decide, or so said Bob Brown who also noted his surprise that FF and X had made up their minds so early.
At the end of the day it is a minor item forgotten by all after a few weeks - though it is grating that we be denied the opportunity to at least trial something that could well have benefits simply because of political games.
I for one want it because I want to punish those outlets who come out with the highest price on the day, and punish them some more if they make a habit of it. Like many I am sick of being ripped off because they can rip us off.
342
Boerwar
I think there is some truth in that.
345
Socrates
I agree with both those points. The Coalition (The Party Formerly Known As ‘The Government’), are definitely still thrashing about trying to come to terms with the shock of rejection and political irrelevance, both now and for the foreseeable future. And, not surprisingly, they are also now in a serious policy vacuum, (and, perhaps, to some extent a philosophical vacuum as well), which cannot all be sheeted home to their ineffectual leader.
Boerwar @ 340 -
We should not forget what a free ride Howard/Costello had from gouging the public purse for what was often close to party political PR. Squillions.
Sorry, for not making myself clear. I wasn’t suggesting the government go on an advertising binge. It should have used the media to report what is by any measure a newsworthy story. It did receive a few seconds of air time and the odd column inch of newsprint, but it could have been a lot more if the Ministers had talked up the significance of what WorleyParsons are proposing.
BTW-another statistic: The Snowy’s maximum generating capacity is 3,000,000 KW (much less ATM because of the drought). The 34 solar farms will generate a peak 8,500,000 KW, or nearly 3 times as much. Yes, that is for a limited number of hours a day, but if storage was included, which it isn’t, the 24 hour base load capacity wouldn’t be all that far behind the Snowy’s maximum output and a lot more than it has been generating for some years, or perhaps ever will again in a CC affected world.
“Fielding on the other hand IS more conservative than the Liberals.”
That’s sad, looks like labor may have to hope for a Coulston in the liberal ranks.
350
It’s a mixture of past year and coming year.
The Consumer Sentiment Index is an average of five component indexes reflecting consumers’ evaluations of their household financial situation over the past year and the coming year, anticipated economic conditions over the coming year and the next five years, and buying conditions for major household items. Assessments about future unemployment are also recorded.
That’s from here
Ten News have run a piece about the demise of Fuelwatch and Rudd’s WA visit. They reported that in one area of Perth there was a 25 cents/litre variation in the published unleaded prices across the outlets. The locals all had access to that info.
No doubt something similar occurred in the rest of the country too, but unless we drove around all day to check we wouldn’t know. And the oil companies new best friend is going to make damn sure we never do.
I can’t hear the sound, but TT is now doing a piece on “Why do the female beach volleyballers wear so much less than male beach volleyballers?”
I quite like the beach volleyball. Both mens and womens. And I’ve seen much more womens than mens so far this year….
Perhaps TT should ask the Channel 7 team?
356 RA
If it’s an average of past, present and future, that study from Portugal can still be reconciled with Possum’s data. In Portugal, they attributed the past and present to the Government but not the future.
They obviously aren’t Rage Against the Machine fans or they would remember the famous chorus from Testify
MayoFeral @ 354
I agree that it would be a pity to see the Gubbies go the way of the Howard/Costello use of the public purse for quasi party political pr purposes. The Gubbies say they are not going to do it but power has a way of white-anting ethical behaviour.
Nevertheless, even at vastly lower levels, fed PR expenditure is mostly going to be a plus for the Gubbies and, for the next round, the Nelson/Turnbull/Costello whomsoever opposition is going to have to find its own money for a change. It will be yet another shock to their system. Therefore a key base rule in the competition will be different.
The Opposition is going to have to do some hard yakka policy work to overcome the limitations of competing from Opposition. They won’t have taxpayer funds, they won’t have the public service and they will not be able to use taxpayers money to shovel some out to ‘think tanks’ for free policy work. Fortunately, they will have some time on their hands, if they use it wisely. I hope for the sake of good government that that is what they will do. They could start by forgetting about each others’ personalities and focusing on policies.
I suspect, without knowing it, that one of the things that happened was the MSM got used to getting its snout in the Howard/Costello PR trough and liked it that way, which is one of the reasons for the way stuff got covered then and still gets covered now. They would like to get back to that way of doing things. I suggest it is why the Gubbies are finding it difficult to get traction on big important things like the Worley Parsons thingoes: no money in it for the MSM.
It would be interesting to know what has happened to profit levels of relevant MSM companies since the demise of the Howard/Costello Government PR trough.
Taking into account the impact of other things like the subprime mortgage meltdown, my bet is that their profits are not looking as healthy as they might otherwise have been. It really was a lot of money.
How could it happen? after all the high hopes we had… Mr X has gone with “No Fuelwatch”
Damn, I remember when he was a “across-the-board kinda guy
Back in the “No Pokies” days… before he got “big”
As I posted in the WA thread, WA Libs pledge to keep Fuelwatch in WA.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=91198
William,
I suggest registering the business name “Pollbludger”.
Then if you get infringed you can protect the name. Sadly if you allow someone to use the name you may not have legal recourse or rights to reclaim the name.
Suffice to say the privatisation seems to have failed in any event. It’s a bit like the James Bond franchise - who remembers the 1984 Connery rip off “Never say never” with Connery and Klaus Maria Brandauer.
“I suggest registering the business name “Pollbludger”
There is a site pollbludger.com.au and its domain name is for sale.
“WA Libs pledge to keep Fuelwatch in WA.”
So Frank, I take it we can expect Julie Bishop to come out and urge West Aussies to vote against Barnett for his pledge to maintain this ridiculous scheme?
I doubt it, but it would blunt her attack on Fuelwatch, and would give the Government good fodder to produce ads highlighting the differences within liberal ranks.
But, but, but, bludgers, surely what’s interesting is that despite the constant chanting of the mantra and associated delusional rantings from the usual suspects, the polls say something quite different! The Primary vote is not moving, the TPP is not moving, outside MoE, nothing, nada, zip. Have a look at Possum’s graphs. Personally, I loved Half Nelson’s stuff today about persisting with what he’s doing no matter what the polls say. Reminded me of Howard promising to work harder as the polls continued to show they were going to lose.
I’ve got to say, like Bushfire Bill, I’d love a bit of fire in the belly stuff from Rudd, but have resigned myself to it not happening, unless he gets the chance to do something like the apology again, which happily surprised me. It’s not his style.
I also wonder about how much they could legitimately use the incumbency to push a greater awareness of what they are actually doing in the MSM, but equally, have grave misgivings about ABC Online, as I’ve previously noted, as have others.
Nevertheless, the polls stay stubbornly the same. Why do you think that might be?
Frank
What about Barnett urging the liberal WA senators to vote for the federal Fuelwatch scheme, after all they are supposed to represent their state and it is state liberal policy to support Fuelwatch.
Thanks for your concern everybody, but there isn’t enough money in this racket to warrant copyright protection, and I don’t believe anyone who infringes upon my obvious ethical right to decide what happens with the name is doing themselves any favours. That said, I’m fascinated to learn that somebody has turned pollbludger.com.au into an ad farm.
It wasn’t me, I happened on it by accident, typing in your web address after a beer, or 2, maybe 3.
William
I suppose it’s not a great time to ask this but are you going to have a US thread starting a few weeks before the US election? Just wondering…
HSO
The Govt. has been quietly working on various groups, autistic kids, F111 deseal-reseal, DSP to work changes, carers have twigged that the utilities benefit is real, immigration detention changes etc etc.
These are little things that do not get headlines, but people who are affected notice.
Sure it wasn’t, Rod. Yes, there will definitely be some sort of US election action on this site as the big day approaches.
“That said, I’m fascinated to learn that somebody has turned pollbludger.com.au into an ad farm.”
is that why no-one answers my posts on that site
Finns
I looked up the theories behind collectivist societies being located closer to the equator and individualistic societies being closer to the poles. The data is pretty robust that this is a genuine phenomenon but the cause is highly speculative.
David Brook’s article mentions the contagion theory. From what I’ve read there is probably a correlation between collectivist groups and high-pathogen areas rather than a causation.
After all, civilisation began in these cultures and they were the ones who got off their arses and created agriculture and high density societies long before this happened in the colder climes. They would have had a whole range of different selection pressures than the lazy gits kicking back in northern Europe.
William any updates on WA election?
ESJ, All your WA Election needs can be found on this thread
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/911
William Bowe
#369 Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
“Thanks for your concern everybody, but there isn’t enough money in this racket to warrant copyright protection, and I don’t believe anyone who infringes upon my obvious ethical right to decide what happens with the name is doing themselves any favours.”
That is consistent with my post #293 Guess respect for a moderator , who has supplied us so much and with so much of his effort , and all for free , can be simply repayed by poster’s principals of where they selectively post (especialy when obvious ehtical rights ar trampled on and still ar)
Saw recent Report on ACCC Supermarket Inquiry , where price comarisons of “farm gate prices” compared to “supermarket retail prices” all had 2008 as end comparison date , but product start dates varied ?
eg Eggs 2000/01 when farm gate egg prices were at lowest , Chicken & beeef at March 2002 , Bread march 2002 , pink lady Apples 2004 , yet milk start date March 2002 prices fell 18% thereafter and later rose Effect was to diminish gap between progressive ‘farmgate prices’ vs progressive ’supermarket retail prices’ , making it look supermarkets were not gouging Why not hav same start dates for all products to enable easy modelling and comparsons , data is available
Can anyone explain this? Is it a recession, high oil prices, responsible oil use due to CC concerns (just joking) or something else?
U.S. oil demand during the first half of 2008 fell by an average 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared with the same period a year ago, the biggest volume decline in 26 years, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080812/us_nm/usa_oil_demand_dc_2
eg. Eggs “farmgate prices” hav rissen 12% since 1990 , yet Eggs “supermarket retail prices” hav risen by over 100% , yet Inquiry says th 2 sectors prices hav been going up at same pace , do ACCC Beaucrats actualy go to supermarkets themselves and shop for food
ruawake @ 370. That’s, I think, part of the explanation, that real people are beginning to experience something different. What has got me absolutely fascinated, however, is that despite all that has been thrown at the Rudd gov’t. the polls just don’t shift to any discernible degree, which is why I wonder about all of the usual explanations going around. Maybe some of the proper pseph types might have some ideas?
Frankly, I’d been expecting some movement in Newspoll, given the O.O.’s general behaviour, and the endless chanting of the mantra.
Harry ,
Nelson , memories of rodent still vivid , things ar not bad , just elected Rudd and he’ s nothing wrong , alot right , and 57% to 43% is wonderfull
Thanks Frank C.
Ron 378 - well said, bounders and cads really just deserve a good horsewhipping.
GB - ask the questions and I shall answer.
HSO - its only 9 months even Whitlam one reelection (just) in May 1974 - 16 months later yet another 19 months later was massively thrashed. The vacuum of this government will become apparent in good time.
ESJ,
And I bet you thought you were skilled at challenging people’s preconceptions. I reckon I got a few people out of their comfort zone today.
LOL GG, I saw.
GG , well you could in future try my gentle conciliatory approach , ever thought along those lines
William Bowe @ 369 -
I’m fascinated to learn that somebody has turned pollbludger.com.au into an ad farm.
Stand practise for most domain name agents if you don’t create a DNS record linking the name with an IP address - usually because either you’ve not yet finished the site or you’ve registered all the permutations of the URL to protect the name and are only actively using one.
In this case I’d say someone has registered the name on spec, hoping to eventually make a profit off your hard work. Though that’s harder with .au domains because they’re supposed to be reserved for registered business of the same name.
So Xenephon and Fielding have come out against fuelwatch. Why?
Don’t they believe in transparency and open competition. I would side with the independency of the opinions of the NRMA over a couple of nothing pollies trying to make a headline anyday.
What about the professors at Gilligan’s Island? They can predict the entire destruction of global financial markets but don’t have the brains to come up with their own name. Maybe something will come if they keep scratching their other head!
Diogenes @ 379 - Don’t have a clue, but there was an ‘expert’ on the ABC midday news claiming petrol consumption hasn’t gone down here to any noticeable degree. The only thing that’s changed is people are getting more savvy on when to fill up and are using shopper dockets more. The supermarkets have been the main winners. Big surprise, eh?
Thanks for your thoughts, Ron. I still think it very interesting.
Diogenes @ 375. There’s a more well developed way of understanding societies, developed by Kluckholn & Strodbeck, anthropology gurus, who developed a system of sorting societies, not only across the individualist vs. collectivist spectrum, but also across a number of other dimensions, and across spectrums, within the dimensions. If you’re interested, I’ll dig out the specific reference.
What it boils down to is this; all societies are faced with sorting a number of existential questions:
what is man’s relationship to man (not being sexist here, just shorthand)? hierarchical, collegiate?
what is man’s relationship to time? past, present, future oriented?
what is man’s relationship to place? man in charge of, operating in conjunction with, subject to, the environment?
what is the nature of man, essentially good, essentially evil, essentially a mix of both good and evil?
and so on.
Different societies trend along different trajectories, much as Mr. Palmer’s political leaning thingy tends to sort your own political leaning, along a number of different paths, depending on what you’re asking about. Social vs. economic questions, for instance.
MayoFeral
Maybe if it not costly/dificult to remedy , you may be able to email th info to remedy to William directly MayoFeral , rather than post info here
#375 Diog, [the lazy gits kicking back in northern Europe] - The theory goes like this. the closer you are to the equator, the lazier you get. You know, warm weather, no season, palm tree swaying, hula hula and rich soil. In particularly true for Indonesia where the volcanic soil is so rich, you dont need fertiliser. In fact, the volcanoes regular dump more fertiliser. So they have a kinda relax type culture, very relax. Why do thing today where you can do it tomorrow.
Ron,
Your interventions today were astute, well argued and a positve contribution to the discussion ( as always) and I’m certainly glad you were there in support.
It takes all types to make a world and some times you have to break eggs to make an omlette. So for me, from now on, it’s no more Mr. Nice Guy.
E.S.J. It may well be that the current government doesn’t survive more than one term, but I’d be betting you’d rather have the current polling looking a bit different, eh?
NO HSO I support good government not parties.
LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) — Police on Friday arrested the head of a federal agency charged with developing Nigeria’s impoverished southern oil region after allegations that the man spent millions of dollars on a witch doctor in hopes vanquishing a rival.
Maybe Nelson should give this a try!
The Finnigans, @ 392. Do you subscribe to this theory, if that’s what you want to call it?
HSO 390
I’d love to see more on that theory. Any chance of the reference? The collectivist vs individualist theory is a pretty blunt way of categorising societies.
From Brazil with Love. If you cant beat them with guns. at least beat them with skimpy bikini and samba.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/olympics/volleyball/7558304.stm
GG re a “Mr. Nice Guy”
what p.sses me off is we do hav a Mr nice guy , a moderator who gives us all opportunity of enjoyment vs idiot box , all for free , he does ‘nice guy’ thing to help people who had already given pain , and gets ‘grief’ back for it , ethical rights trampled on , and still is getting that ‘grief’ Hope all stand by principal and respects
At some point , may canvass ideas with all here , re a way around current regulations like formal donations /equivalent by those wishing to , to give some recompense back on a periodic basis
Well. I’ll be buggered, E.S.J. It’s never occurred to me, reading your postings, that you would ever, short of having a nuclear device inserted in one of either your or one of your dearest’s orifices, with the count down from 10 happening, that you would ever say anything positive about the Fed. Labor gov’t.. I’ve been reading here more than I post, for a while, and I can’t recall one single thing you have ever said, that was positive for the current gov’t..
Diogenes, I’ll dig out the proper reference for you tomorrow.
#400 Amigo Ronnie - when you have got an Editor in Cheif, you gotta act like a dictatorial editor in chief and just ignore and trample the Mr. Nice Guy.
Centre
#388
“So Xenephon and Fielding have come out against fuelwatch. Why? ‘
Good you Centre , saw your Gilligans coment in 2nd para
Regarding our Mr X and Fielding , a reel disappointment isn’t it denying opportunity of consumers getting 24 hour in advance petrol rice info
On TV last nite Mr X said Scheme was ‘illusionary’ , ie. will provide no benefit Then why not pass it ! Fieldings excuse I saw on TV was independent stations may get squeezed out , but thought thats what majors ar doing right now AND playing withh fuel prices by th day ?
Thanks very much, Ron etc, but back on topic now please.
no problem
HSO - if you have read my earlier posts you will see I am huge fan of PJK but of the current government I think they are more in a Bob Carr mould. I would submit that is evidence enough of my bipartisanship.
Now for you? Anything positive to say about the Liberal party?
Any polls about the wa election William?
ESJ
Nelson suported Apology
Now i expect them to embrace CC , ETS plus solar
Ron, I have driven past my area, stopped to put some fuel in, then found the next servo offering cheaper fuel.
So next time, I go to fill up at the servo who was offering cheaper fuel only to find this time the guy I had just past was offering the cheaper fuel.
It’s a joke! I would like to know before hand.
Only two so far, this one regarding internal Liberal polling which apparently convinced Buswell he should go.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24142595-5017005,00.html
And this one for the ALP seat of Jandakot.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24155022-5017005,00.html
Centre what was the price difference?
Diogenes 379
The decline in US fuel suage is indeed remarkable, but is a combination of two factors: first the realisation that cheap oil (say under $50/bbl) is gone, second they are probably in recession. Oil consumption has declined in most western countries, but not as much as in the US. In the last recession we had here, fuel consumption dropped 2-3%. You only have to move the world oil market from deficit to surplus to change the direction of prices. However nobody should be fooled - oil consumption and price will go up in the northern hemisphere winter and in the long term (2012 on) it will go up in real terms.
ESJ, “Anything positive to say about the Liberal party?”
Yes, two words
sinking
ship
Thanks Frank
I was under the impression Labor may have been doing it tough seeing as though they brought Kevin in, your attached articles tell me otherwise.
FINNS
#399
“Georgia beat Russia in volleyball” in Bejing
Great , Amigo will bring a little joy in Georgia for a feew seconds
If I posted th reel feelings story there , it would bring a hole new meaning to lingos in Russian
centre
thought you meant ’stinking’, as in pile of.
Centre if your concerned about saving of a couple of bucks how will you cope come an ets?
Centre ,
i think we all hav and its so frustrating , am sure most consumers do suport it , and hope minorities opposition does get publicity
Honestly can’t recall JoM. Something like 7c. Enough to make me notice.
Socrates
#413
Latest Bloomberg report and also Standard & Poors survey of economists suggested 50′50 on an R , down from 70% in april However you ar right consumer sales only rose 2% in april store to stoe to 2007 and as inflation is currently 4.3% thats a net decline in units generaly
GDP 2008 is 1.6% , forast july-Dec 0.7% , forcast 2009 1.6% , so fragile but seems not yet R and may end up as a ‘hard landing’ (despite projected large housing losses and house prises decreases still forcast to come)
forcast 2009 is 1.5% not 1.6%
Gus, if Brenda leads the liberals at the next election, I reckon your prediction of 149 seats was one election out
Cheers Centre.
If anyone is up for a great movie I highly recommend, “Don’t Be A Menace To South Central Whilst Drinking Your Juice In The Hood” It’s piss funny
Oops forgot to add a link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCecHKvBwjM&feature=related
Centre
funny you should say that
each time the poss updates his pollytracker, i run a seat count
on my reckoning the band for the next election will be 100-110 range
but if the LDP eventuates 90-100 range
early days but brenda and her fellow stars are setting a very low benchmark
Gus
haven’t done figures for a while , does that forcarst around 54.5% 2PP
Ron
basing on also state by state weighting, fib disintegration as a % multiplier
currently runs 54% east coast,50 west coast ,52 sa nt
the unknown known is the current state election
the unknown unknown is the possibilty of the LDP
the known known is the MSM bias
known unknown is the % turnout vs elgible voters vs state issues
“known unknown is the % turnout vs elgible voters vs state issues”
yep Gus , see th basis thanks , think NSW with Yemma/equivalent successor still there may be a problem gaining seats , & getting 54% averege for east coast
Agree its looking very good presently for a net overall increase in Labors seats for 2010
ron
east coast is nsw qld vic
vic and qld are running at 55-57
dilemma is a known known so already factored , though surprisingly fatty o doesnt rate as highly as he should
Amigo Ronnie, [Amigo will bring a little joy] - indeed it is very joyful to also report that rice eating girl from the Bananaland is absolutely sensational. She is beautiful, elegant, articulate, big smile, big heart, compete as if there is no tomorrow, and won two effing gold medals. She was also born in 1988 and a dragon. how chinese can you get.
Compare this to that 800m runner whats-her-name, big mouth, grumpy looking, bitchy, accused everyone of cheating except her but she has not won a single effing thing. She was born in 1978 and a horse. No wonder.
point proven hso.
“Anything positive to say about the Liberal party”
The’re not in government in any state or territory of federally.
Morning all
Is the Opposition deliberately lulling around? Turnbull in his counting house, counting all his money. The Wicked Witch has tossed the NT entrails into her cauldron and is stewing. Tip is smouldering, crossing a few ‘t’s and dotting a few ‘i’s, working out whether you spell ‘bbold’ with 2′b’s or not 2′b’s. Nelson is on his grand farewell tour, doing what, talking to whom, thinking about what? Who knows? Who cares?
William
It may have arisen here before or elsewhere before, therefore probably not an original idea, but have you thought about a competition to name Tip’s book?
Can I suggest the final chapter be named “Deckchairs on the Titianic” ?