The Australian reports that Newspoll has produced its second successive result of 57-43 in Labor’s favour. The Prime Minister’s approval rating is up two points to 68 per cent, while Brendan Nelson’s preferred leader rating is down two points to 12 per cent. More to follow.
We also have the weekly Essential Research survey showing Labor’s lead steady on 58-42. Also featured are questions on issues deemed important in determining vote choice, economic conditions, interest rates and China’s human rights record. The first of these provides at least some good news for the Coalition if you know where to look: Labor’s core strengths of health and education are found to have fallen in importance since January, while economic management and taxation are up (though so is environment). There is also an echo of the Gippsland by-election in the substantial increase on “Australian jobs and the protection of local industries”.
UPDATE: Newspoll graphic here. Brendan Nelson’s disapproval rating up from 42 per cent to 48 per cent.
969 Comments
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Cheers Adam,Poss
considering theri fairly high profile and huggability factor, I am surprised that more Olympians have not entered fed parliament
ps googled ric charlesworth- seems he did some good work whilst in par,also “oppy” seems to have been one of the good fibs,whilst wilfrid has quite an interesting wiki entry -”Kent Hughes proved to be a controversial figure in politics, and was never afraid to publicly espouse his personal beliefs, such as an admiration for fascism, of which he had a poor understanding.”
Ron,
Southern Ossetia has been a de facto independent state since the 1991 Georgian-Ossetian conflict in 1991, with a government supported by the Russians. (Bear in mind that North Ossetia is part of Russia) In 2005, South Ossetians almost unanimously voted to continue their existance as a de facto independent state. A very similar state of affairs exists for Abkhazia, which declared independance from Georgia in 1995. The Russian government had already been giving South Ossetians Russian passports under Putin, so many South Ossetians were considered Russian citizens. Russian peacekeepers were in place prior to the fighting that broke out over the last few weeks.
On August 1 fighting broke out between South Ossetian and Georgian troops (and both sides have denied provocation, and through the propaganda, it’s impossible to tell who actually did). In response (from the BBC), Russian ambassador Yury Popov:
On the 8th of August,
After this, a heavy offensive against the South Ossetian capital of Tshkinvali was launched by Georgia with heavy shelling of the city. Russia claims that this heavy shelling killed many civilians and amounts to genocide. Their justification for action was on the grounds of protecting their civilians (that they had supplied with passports) from genocide. They then sent their troops into Southern Ossetia, which led to the conflict that we’ve had over the last week or so.
The six points of the ceasefire are:
I don’t want to go into the specifics of the actual conflict itself, as seeing through the propaganda fog from both the Western media and Russian media is completely impossible, but the ceasefire is hardly appeasement. The ceasefire is a return to the pre-conflict status that was already in place. The entering of Georgia outside of the South Ossetian border is (Reuters)
It’s not a case of them allowed to retain their troop positions were they are now, all combat troops are required to withdraw from Georgia, with peacekeeping troops in South Ossetia remaining (and able to patrol in what seems to me a DMZ-type arrangement). No similar patrol strip exists in Abkhazia.
Al
Judging by the American’s hysterical reaction, all of this came as a complete surprise to them. I realise that the CIA is considered to be one of the most inept organisations ever formed but how could they miss this one? If they really are co-operating with the Brits, French etc it looks like all the western intelligence services dropped the ball yet again.
Kent Hughes wrote a series of articles in the Melbourne Herald in the 1920s called “why I am a fascist”, which he took a long time to live down. He was a rather silly man although a fine soldier and patriot. He didn’t really know anything about fascism, he just wanted to shock people out of their complacency. He never belonged to a fascist group or did anything incompatible with parliamentary democracy.
I don’t know if it came as a surprise to intelligence services as much as it did to the media. Because there’s been no nice news grabs or short succint statements of events over the last few months, what’s been going on hasn’t been heavily reported, because it’s simply too overwhelming to explain to the general populace. What people do understand though, is “Russia invades Georgia”, so this jumps to prominence as soon as it occurs. The CIA factbook says about Georgia (datestamp on page says last updated 7 August):
This latest conflict has been in the pipeline for months, bearing in mind that this is part of a larger conflict that has been going on for centuries. I think it’s not so much a sign of a weak intelligence community in Washington, but a painfully weak presidential administration who haven’t paying attention to important international disputes. This I think feeds into the US media which lives a very sheltered life, with international news (with the exception of Iraq and Afghanistan) being almost non-existent.
The Australian, 15 August 2008:
So we have in Dollar $weetie an IR extremist, who prescribes harsh draconian work laws for all employees. Make the bastards work harder, longer, for less money, and no job security!
But what is his own attitude to work, his own work ethic, when it comes to putting in the hard effort of his own?
Clinton Porteous, News Ltd, August 01, 2008:
It’s Work(NO)”Choices” for everyone else; soft and cruisy for the born-to-rule.
Adam in Canberra, have you altered your opinion on the November Presidential Poll?
Nope.
oh,oh
I’ve just realized that my water allocation this year will be zip. I thought it would be bad but zero megs is, well, not a lot of water to keep things ticking over. Glad I’m not depending on it for my livelihood.
You can always rinse your dentures in San Pellegrino, Boerwar.
Yes.
http://canberrabicyclemuseum.com.au/malvernstar/opperman_the_cyclist.htm
late entry for cossie’s book
“my secret love-playing second fiddle”
More good news for Qantas. Move along, nothing to see here. I’m not sure what the spokeswoman would say if the panel had fallen on some poor bastard from 10,000m.
“It had absolutely no flight safety implications,” the spokeswoman said.
Panel falls off Qantas plane on Singapore
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24184899-5006301,00.html
Adam @ 610
lol. How do I get there?
No no, Boerwar, it’s a brand of mineral water. Perhaps I should have said rinse them in Fosters. (Gosh I must be an elitist.)
Adam
*grin* As soon as I can afford some dentures I’ll pick up a slab of Fosters and give your suggestion a go.
The Empire Strikes Back!
The Russians hate “encirclement”. They’re not going to be happy with this.
U.S., Poland Reach Agreement on Missile Defense
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aakWCWAS_u34&refer=worldwide
Diogenes 603
You raise a good question about western intelligence on Georgia. it seems that Nato repreentatives were actually in Georgia meeting with Saakashvilli only a few weeks earlier, so it is amazing that they got thigns so wrong. Once you realise ther significance of the pipeline and know Putin’s own background, its hard to believe that anyoen would expect the Russians to have ignored this.
BTW if anyone wants a good news source on Georgia, the European blog “A Fist Full of Euros” has had a blogger actually in Ossetia while this has been going on. Well worth a read. See:
http://fistfulofeuros.net/
Good to see that NATO East is ready to take on the Rooskies even if NATO West has gone all Chamberlainite.
Further to Diogenes 603, here is another comment on Georgia, suggesting that the US massively messed up the diplomatic game. Its almost comic till you realised that a nation’s peace and freedom has been virtually destroyed thanks to these miscalculations:
http://www.samefacts.com/archives/georgia_/2008/08/unbefckinglievable.php
Diogenes
Just saw your 617 and you are so right. The article linked in my 620 mentions amoung other things that the US backed missile shield in eastern europe is one of the direct reasons why Russia withdrew from a European treaty last year, which in turn is why the Georgians had no idea that there were several divisions waiting over the border when they invaded Ossetia.
Its scary to think that the intellects making the free world’s biggest diplomatic, defence and security decisions are no better than the clowns portrayed in The Hollowmen toying with our economy. Yet Ossetia shows that that is the case.
Oh yes, Russia invades Georgia and it’s all the US’s fault. Ho-hum. I agree that Bush has been all talk and no tanks when it comes to taking on despots. But then, what thanks did he get when he did take out a despot, namely Saddam Hussein? (And by the way, have any of you noticed that the US has now actually won the war in Iraq? I thought not.) But Bush won’t be round much longer. In fact I suspect Puto-Stalin wanted to get his war in before McCain becomes President. Mad Mac would’ve told Sarkozy to stay home and sent in the marines. That’s the language KGB Staff College alumni understand.
US won the war in Iraq? Because it is fairly quiet there? And won it by arming Sunni militias?
Adam
I think that is nonsense, both factually and rhetorically. First, Georgia invaded Ossetia first, in violation of the 1994 cease fire deal, which had been internationally brokered. Once that happened all bets were off. The Georgians needed the ceasefire to survive; they were fools to break it. But the point of the articles I posted links to was that the US has several hundred military advisors in the Georgian army right now and not only didn’t stop the invasion but doesn’t seem to have even realised it was happening until too late.
As for responses, the US doesn’t have enough troops left to stabilise Afghanistan, let alone intervene in Georgia. Where exactly do you think they would get the Marines from? Give up in Iraq? Russia has at least three Motor Rifle Divisions in Ossetia now – 50,000 men plus 600 tanks. They are now dug in in a mountainous area with a secure supply route back to Russia. They’re not going anywhere. Putin called their bluff and won. I’m not saying I like Putin, I just recognise that he’s smarter than his foe.
As for Iraq, lets see what happens after the US withdrawl.
I will agree with you on one thing – McCain is mad.
Is this the US thread?
585
Dario
Pretty bad, ain’t it.
Adam, I think plenty of people approved of rubbing out Saddam. He was a mass murderer and got what he deserved. No tears there. So, George W Bush achieved something positive by going into Iraq. I am not sure that George works for the gratitude of onlookers, so is probably not especially concerned about the general lack of gratitude. But, no doubt, we all like to liked and we all like to be thanked for a good job.
On your other point, yep, I thought that the surge and the accompanying change in strategy was a load of cods but I don’t mind stating that I got it wrong and that it has worked a lot better than I thought it would. I could put in some qualifiers about what it all really means, but that is the bigger picture.
But before saying that this means that the war in Iraq has been ‘won’ and that George W gets 10/10 for victory, I would consider the following questions:
1. For whom does having Iraq firmly in the pro-Iranian Shi-ite camp constitute a victory?
2. Is the Iraqi democracy in any way sustainable?
3. Is there a victory or has the battle shifted? Haven’t the terrorists done what all terrorists do and simply moved to where the fight is likely to be cheaper and more fruitful – aka Pakistan (now there would be a nuclear prize) and Afghanistan? Is there a connection between casualties in Iraq trending down and US casualties in Afghanistan trending up?
4. Was the price worth it? About 2 million people have fled the country, about 2 million people have been internally displaced and, make a guess, several hundred thousand have been killed and injured. A generation of kids has been denied effective schooling and are psychologically very, very damaged. The place has been trashed. The stats are dodgy but you get my drift.
5. What price the loss of moral authority that comes from bodgying up some story about WMD which was, after all, the prime ‘reason’ for starting the war?
6. If western oil companies end up with the oil concessions, for whom does the war represent a victory – for the Iraqis?
7. If the cost is somewhere up to $3 trillion what are the opportunity costs? Would the American economy be in some sort of better shape now if the funds had been invested in US infrastructure, research, education and training?
8. If it was all about despots, why just one? And why that one? Mugabe would have been a whole lot cheaper and the results would have been gratifyingly better. Is there a credibility problem with the despot line in that the US has a bit of history of propping up despots itself when it suits?
With respect to Russia, Georgia and the role of Bush, all three patently had a role to play. The ones who did not cock it up were the Russians. Yet. They have what they wanted. Is there any morality in what the Russians are up to? No. Who is chiefly responsible for the butchery? The Russians.
Did the Georgians cock it up? Clearly, they gave Putin the in he wanted. Did Bush’s management of a semi-client state cock it up? Clearly. Bush simply is not a cleanskin here. He has the power, he was meddling, he cocked it up. As you say, it is not ‘all’ his fault by any means. But, not surprisingly given his track record, it looks remarkably like he stumblebummed his bit of the picture.
Your point about Putin’s CV is chillingly accurate. Nasty.
Adam
Du bist Berliner. (BTW JFK was grammatically incorrect with “Ich bin ein Berliner”, that meant he was in fact a Berliner bun. The Germans don’t use “ein” for citizenship.)
How do the Germans view the future of Russia?
On Georgia: South Ossetia is part of Georgia and the Georgians are perfectly entitled to occupy their own country if they want. These Soviet-era “autonomous republics,” in Georgia and elsewhere, are just gangster-run enclaves that should be abolished. In any case Ossets are not Russians and what goes in South Ossetia is none of Russia’s business. Georgia is no threat to any legitimate Russian interest. The Russian army is a corrupt and ramshackle mess, as was shown in Chechnya. One division of Marines could have Putin’s Motor Rifle Divisions for breakfast.
On Iraq: what were the criteria of success BEFORE the invasion? (1) Get rid of Saddam: achieved. (2) Eliminate Iraq’s WMD: achieved (not hard since their weren’t any) (3) Eliminate any prospect of future Iraqi WMD development: achieved. (4) Give Iraq a constitution and an elected government: achieved. AFTER the invasion the additional criteria were (1) Defeat the Sunni-Baathist insurgency: pretty much achieved after a lot of blunders. (2) Defeat the Shia-Sadrist extremists: They’re not exactly defeated, but they have been successfully overawed and are behaving for now. So, I would class that as 80% success, a big turnaround from two years ago when total failure seemed likely. Thankyou Secretary Gates, Gen Petaeus and (after a slow start) PM Maliki. I disagree that Iraq has now become an Iranian client. Maliki and Ayatollah Sistani are smarter than that. They may all be Shia but there’s no love lost between Arabs and Persians.
From Wikipedia:
Jelly doughnut urban legend
According to an urban legend, Kennedy allegedly made an embarrassing grammatical error by saying “Ich bin ein Berliner,” referring to himself not as a citizen of Berlin, but as a common pastry[3]:
Kennedy should have said “Ich bin Berliner” to mean “I am a person from Berlin.” By adding the indefinite article ein, his statement implied he was a non-human Berliner, thus “I am a jelly doughnut”.
The legend seems to stem from a play on words with Berliner, the name of a doughnut variant filled with jam or plum sauce that is thought to have originated in Berlin.
In fact, Kennedy’s statement is both grammatically correct[4] and perfectly idiomatic, and cannot be misunderstood in context. The urban legend is not widely known within Germany, where Kennedy’s speech is considered a landmark in the country’s postwar history.[5] The indefinite article ein can be and often is omitted when speaking of an individual’s profession or residence but is necessary when speaking in a figurative sense as Kennedy did. Since the president was not literally from Berlin but only declaring his solidarity with its citizens, “Ich bin Berliner” would not have been correct.[6]
The origins of the legend are obscure. The Len Deighton spy novel Berlin Game, published in 1983, contains the following passage, spoken by narrator Bernard Samson:
‘Ich bin ein Berliner,’ I said. It was a joke. A Berliner is a doughnut. The day after President Kennedy made his famous proclamation, Berlin cartoonists had a field day with talking doughnuts.[7]
The New York Times review of Deighton’s novel added the detail that Kennedy’s audience found his remark funny:
Here is where President Kennedy announced, Ich bin ein Berliner, and thereby amused the city’s populace because in the local parlance a Berliner is a doughnut.[8]
In 1988 William J. Miller wrote in an April 30 New York Times article:
It’s worth recalling, again, President John F. Kennedy’s use of a German phrase while standing before the Berlin Wall. It would be great, his wordsmiths thought, for him to declare himself a symbolic citizen of Berlin. Hence, Ich bin ein Berliner. What they did not know, but could easily have found out, was that such citizens never refer to themselves as “Berliners.” They reserve that term for a favorite confection often munched at breakfast. So, while they understood and appreciated the sentiments behind the President’s impassioned declaration, the residents tittered among themselves when he exclaimed, literally, “I am a jelly-filled doughnut.”[9]
In fact, the opposite is true: The citizens of Berlin do refer to themselves as Berliner; what they do not refer to as Berliner are jelly doughnuts. While these are known as “Berliner” in other areas of Germany, they are simply called Pfannkuchen (pancakes) in and around Berlin.[10] Thus the merely theoretical ambiguity went unnoticed by Kennedy’s audience, as it did in Germany at large. In sum, “Ich bin ein Berliner” was the appropriate way to express in German what Kennedy meant to say.[11]
Although it is false, the legend has since been repeated by reputable media, such as the BBC (by Alistair Cooke in his Letter from America program),[12] The Guardian,[13] MSNBC,[14] CNN,[15] Time magazine,[16] The New York Times[17], and in several books about Germany written by English-speaking authors, including Norman Davies.[18].
As for the creation of the speech, it had been reviewed by journalist Robert Lochner, who was educated in Germany, and had been practiced several times in front of numerous Germans, including Berlin Mayor Willy Brandt. The many video and audio recordings of the event show only enthusiastic applause following the statement; the only laughter occurred later, when Kennedy jokingly thanked his translator for his translation of Kennedy’s German sentence into German.
During the speech Kennedy used the phrase twice, ending his speech on it. However, Kennedy did pronounce the sentence with his Boston accent, reading from his note “ish bin ein Bearleener,” which he had written out in English phonetics.
The Germans have a big problem with Russia because they get so much of their energy from Russia or Russian-controlled sources. Plus they have the legacy of history to deal with. Germany threatening Russia is not a good look. So die Kanzlerin has been very Chamberlainits so far.
“How do the Germans view the future of Russia?”
Looks like the Germans prefer the Russians to be in Russia by the look of the headlines in Berlin today.
“Die Russen sind immer noch da”
http://www.taz.de/1/politik/europa/artikel/1/die-russen-sind-immer-noch-da/
Adam
Mea culpa. The basic premise of my argument was true though, although the bun thing was a stuff-up. The correct German phrase is “Ich bin Berliner.” I’m not sure what they made of “Ich bin ein Berliner”. It probably just sounded clumsy.
Adam
So, was it worth it?
It was read and approved by Adenauer and Brandt beforehand. If they’d've had any problems with JFK’s German they’d've said so.
Boerwar, Iraq is now the only functioning democracy in the Arab world. Iraqis are no longer being tortured, gassed and massacred. The Kurds have regional autonomy. A lot of nasty jihadists have been killed. There has indeed been a lot of bungling along the way, mainly the result of intelligence failures, in both senses of that expression, in Washington. But the outcome is as good as can be expected from any war. Much better than the Treaty of Versailles, for example.
The Kurds have regional autonomy.
For how long?
Adam
Do you disagree with Rudd’s comment during the debate with Howie?
I think we are getting a bit off-topic here
My #584 post on Georgia
.
said every party had made an “error” (Georgia , Russia , USA , Ossertians , EU/NATO) , and then sought to identify who were more to blame , seeing truth is first cauality of war
UN recognises Georgia as a country , Ossetia is part of that country Georgia , that is a fact It is an autonimous province It is not part of Russian , and is not “russian”
Russia invaded country of Georgia , now whether there were prior ‘qagreements’ or not , Russia still invaded a sovereign countrey , and hav NO legal right to do so under International They deseve most criticism
Further before this Russia ilegaly commited cross border escapades into Ossetia (Georgian sovereign land) , and offered Ossertians russian passports (Georgian sovereign peoples) & created mischiefs to provocate Georgia (…successfully last week)
So do not let anyone put an argument at all Russia is anything but th corupt ruthless dictatorial murderous State it always has been
Next Georgia , has been negotiating with NATO/EU for entry last few months , and told your Ossetian province is a worry with ‘unrest’ Very naeve to send troops there , but it did hav a legal right to , so lets not dismiss rules of a sovereign Countrys legal rights to act within its borders as IF Ossertia is not part of Georgia , it is..other than to legit queston human rights abuses , which do NOT give Russia a foreigner ANY legit to invade
Next Ossettia , they want independence and concurrently been casuing mischiefs as hav russians , that is diferent queston to present status of russia invading
Appeasement ? Russian troops today remain in Georgia outside even Ossetia province’s borders but within Georgia , WITHOUT a timetable to wihdraw They didnot use appeasement word with Chamberlain either , but it was appeasement
WITHOUT any coresponding economic penality by th West to Russia as Agressor
US/NATO well they built a oil pipeline thru Georgia to make NATO member Turkey’s oil secure from Russian ‘control’ , well not now
US/NATO This Russian provaocation has been happening for months , CONCURENT with Georgia negotiating to enter NATO/EU….could not USA/NATO see th connecton , Russia wanted Georgia nOT to join Nato/EU and also to ‘control’ Georgia itself Bad strategic planing I’d say
US/NATO response , very lame , Georgia a sovereign Country was invaded , after it responded to provocotion by Russian intrusions on its sovereign lands
and after it took naeve & foolish actions within its own country’s borders Action by th West especialy dumbo George should hav and still should be harsh diplomatic and firm economic penalties , but bush’s responses just like oiliness phoney Obama & geriatric mumbler McCain are p.ssweak
Russia instead hav come out unscathed , a smiling Bear keeping Gorgia from NATO/EU , some ‘control’ threat over Turkey pipeline , dismantled sovereign Georgia
Losers NATO/USA incompetent pre intelligence , and wimpish post response
Losers sovereign Georgia
Biggest losers , civilians of Ossettia and Georgia Hope Ukraine is not next
Adam, I’m surprised you haven’t responded to Jasmine over in the WA Thread
I’m quite happy for the discussion to be off-topic while it remains at its current high standard.
*Goes off to see what Jasmine has said
William: Any chance you could bump/start new threads about Lyne and WA?
You big softie William
Adam
My apology I misunderstood your remark on Putin: I agree with you on that view.
Adam
We might have to agree to differ significantly on some aspects of Iraq war while agreeing on some other aspects.
I am curious to see how you would assess US/our involvement in Afghanistan/Pakistan and the likely course of the conflict there. You may have noticed that in previous posts that I am very keen on us getting out of it but I would be interested in your views.
I think our involvement in Afghanistan is entirely right and proper, and being done with the ADF’s usual professionalism. But the battle to stabilise Afghanistan will not succeed until there is some tough dealing with the Pakistanis. Another job waiting for President McCain.
William, there is only that much you can say about Cossie, Ruddie, Gillie etc before it gets BORING. So occasional “off topic” with the “in topic” like Sweet Georgia Brown can only add spice and splice to PB.
Guess I say cynically , sovereign Georgia is yesterdays paper wrappings for th World , another indictment that its better to be located over huge oil reserves So to Afghanistan we ‘oz’ may be there for right reason , but do Afghanistanians understand that as they grow poppy , wonder about Al quaeda and Tailaban , and why was not full focus there in first place , rrather than Iraq
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