The Australian reports that Newspoll has produced its second successive result of 57-43 in Labor’s favour. The Prime Minister’s approval rating is up two points to 68 per cent, while Brendan Nelson’s preferred leader rating is down two points to 12 per cent. More to follow.
We also have the weekly Essential Research survey showing Labor’s lead steady on 58-42. Also featured are questions on issues deemed important in determining vote choice, economic conditions, interest rates and China’s human rights record. The first of these provides at least some good news for the Coalition if you know where to look: Labor’s core strengths of health and education are found to have fallen in importance since January, while economic management and taxation are up (though so is environment). There is also an echo of the Gippsland by-election in the substantial increase on “Australian jobs and the protection of local industries”.
UPDATE: Newspoll graphic here. Brendan Nelson’s disapproval rating up from 42 per cent to 48 per cent.
969 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 13 14 [15] 16 17 … 20 » Show All
banana
Bush had at least been Governor of a large state. Obama has literally never run anything. I don’t think Bush is a phony: I think he’s an idiot. But you can’t say he stands for nothing.
The Russians might not have is all their own way in Georgia. Those Georgians are bloody tough. Watch this video. A female Georgian reporter is hit by sniper fire while live on camera, puts on a flak jacket and finishes the report!!
Georgian Female Reporter Shot Live On TV- Continues Reporting!
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/08/amazing-video-georgian-female-reporter.html
“But you can’t say he stands for nothing.”
I think that title has been claimed by the WA Opposition leader in the short term.
And no amount of cheerleading from the WA Media will improve his chances either
There would have to be a bit of WA polling out overnight one would expect Frank.
William,
Now that the privatised entity has failed, will you introduce a US thread for the start of the conventions?
Ron,
The only bad baba icecream is that made by my mother in law.
Ahh, yes – Westpoll, but I think we should move that port of the conversation over to the correct thread.
ESJ,
I think William has indicated he will consider such once the WA election is out of the way.
Obviously, William has his priorities and we must all remember that the real Poll Bludger is a free site of the highest quality for participants.
I think we should allow William to organise himself and continue to support him through the current travails regardless of our personal impatience.
Adam
There is no correlation between how experienced a President is and how successful he is according to electoralvote.
How Good Are Experienced Presidents?
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Info/experience.html
ESJ
You really need to talk to the US historians who come up with the rankings of US presidents. Nixon rates behind Carter, Ford, Bush I and Bush II.
The list of candidates are posted for the electorates of Lynee and Mayo’
Could we have a new thread to discuss these candidates?
A new Greenhouse Gas Bill was tabled today and the Greens aren’t happy.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/fed-committee-backs-clean-coal/2008/08/15/1218307224831.html
http://parlinfoweb.aph.gov.au/piweb/Repository/Legis/Bills/Linked/18060803.pdf
I can’t accept that Obama is a stand for nothing inexperienced phony.
He is highly intelligent and has a strong vision of social justice for the US. As for the economy, it would be impossible to do any worse than Dubya lol. In fact any Democrat could do better than a Republican.
I’ll tell you something, Obama is very strong. He could look down at Hillary and she would run away like a scared little kitty cat.
The US’s global standing has been shattered by Dubya. I think Obama is just what they need. But will the racists vote for him? I wouldn’t bet on it!
So as long as you ’stand for something’, you’re qualified to be President even if you’re an idiot… okaaaay
Centre,
Are you implying anyone that does not vote for Obama is a racist? Please explain.
Yes of course when Obama loses everyone will howl about racism. But I think the American people would happily elect a black president if they had a candidate who they had confidence in. If Colin Powell had run in 2000 he would have won much more easily than Bush did. There will be a “Bradley effect” lurking but that’s not why I think Obama will lose. He will lose because crucial demographics will decide he is not trustworthy as President.
Diogenes,
For shame Nixon is not accorded the respect due to a visionary and a statesman.
GG, no way. I just believe that if someone is “somewhat racist” they may not vote for him.
No, neither were men of his ilk, like Hitler, Stalin or Mussolini.
I have not seen any reason for the American people not to have any confidence in Obama. And I disagree that Obama is not trustworthy to be President.
Obama has been strongly endorsed by people who know more about US politics than everyone here and on Gilligan’s Island lol put together.
ESJ,
Pity he was a crook.
Wash your mouth out GG. He made mistakes as Nixon said “I gave my enemies a sword and they stuck it in with relish”
We are all capable of making mistakes no?
They are only “mistakes” when you get caught
Mayo by-election Candidates
Candidates list in CSV format [2k] Ballot Position Party name on ballot paper Candidate Name Occupation Contact
1 The Greens Lynton Vonow School Services Officer 29 Wattle St
LOBETHAL SA 5241
Mobile: 0427 975 047
Email: lynton.vonow@sa.greens.org.au
Fax: 08 8212 4822
2 Conservatives for Climate and Environment Rachael Barons Administration 9 Warren Ave
PROSPECT SA 5082
Home: 08 8342 3248
Email: rachael@cfce.org.au
3 Independent Bill Spragg Tafe Lecturer PO Box 374
MONTACUTE SA 5134
Home: 08 8390 2324
Mobile: 0403 261 186
Email: bspragg@clearmail.com.au
4 One Nation Mathew Keizer Community Support Worker 16 Bonn St
LOBETHAL SA 5241
Mobile: 0438 846 222
Email: ummagigi@yahoo.com.au
5 Independent Mary Brewerton Retired Nurse RN P.O. Box 232
GUMERACHA SA 5233
Work: 08 8389 1623
6 Australian Democrats Andrew Castrique Laboratory Technician P.O. Box 176
NAIRNE SA 5252
Mobile: 0421 653 501
Email: andrew.castrique@sa.democrats.org.au
7 Liberal Jamie Briggs Consultant GPO Box 20
ADELAIDE SA 5001
Email: jamie.briggs@saliberal.org.au
8 Independent Malcolm Ronald King Retired P.O. Box 82
CHARLESTON SA 5244
Work: 08 8389 5507
Home: 08 8389 5507
9 Family First Party Bob Day Builder 7 William St
HOUGHTON SA 5131
Home: 08 8265 9442
Fax: 08 8396 4828
10 D.L.P. – Democratic Labor Party David McCabe Clerk 65 Chopin Rd
SOMERTON PARK SA 5044
Mobile: 0458 247 057
Email: dlpforsa@esc.net.au
11 Independent Di Bell Anthropologist-Writer RSD 446 Finniss-Clayton Rd
FINNISS SA 5255
Work: 0427 554 194
ESJ
There is a large body of opinion that Nixon’s little misdemeanors were pretty trivial compared to what happened under all of his successors.
Nixon’s failings go a bit past ‘mistakes’.
I understand why many ‘oz’ people like th guy , antithisus of George Bush , a perceived reel change , and great Orators as he undoubtedly is sound inspiring and his broad messages sound what we believe BUT till you see what the phoniness of what they actualy said or do (and that requires a lot of research that ‘oz’ peoples do not hav time to do) one can not reel assess Also remember great speaker/actor Ronald Reagan , but this guy is better
Examples only of Snake oil salesman: Anti Kyoto , anti universal heathcare , pro death penalty even when no murdr is invlved , suported Supreme Court July 08 removing Washington citys laws baning hand guns , opposes semi automatic gun banning , did not support 2 bills to close gitm , pro Exxon in Exxon Valdez case , supports illegal Telco’s getting immunity for Bush’s illegal wire taps , since June has supported all 4 stanses of consevative Supreme Court judges to horror of progresives , has threatened in front of a full Editorial board to pre umptively nuke both Pakistan & Iran..etc That’s why I suggested a choice between an oiliness Alexander Downer vs geratric Billy McMahon , voting informal looks good
Oh dear, all this US discussion made me nostalgic, I checked on the failed privatised entity – the crazed Catrina is threatening to unleash a virus on PollBludger. I guess it shows the nature of the beast.
Oh, goodie. Someone with a lot more cred on the issue also thinks we could become a regional energy provider if we play our solar, geothermal and wind cards right: http://bravenewclimate.com/
Though of course we’d all be wasting our time because CC isn’t important. Brendan said so.
Pardon my ignorance, ron, and I intend no disrespect, but whom are you referring to, McCain or Obama?
NEws
Russain troops in violation of appeasement ‘truce’ hav entering big city og gori and adding more troops to forify AND a Poti a port on Black sea
No where near Ossettia
also Russian ‘peace keepers’ term was used today , thats guting englash language , i mean Gestapo and Russian secret police hav commonalities
Georgia is being dismembered in front of our eyes , a democracy to boot
Where’s at least th economic sanctions with some tough words
This is rather confusing, I thought I was on the psephology blog site Pollbludger as opposed to Mr Andrew Bolt’s blog. I guess it is easy to get confused.
The vicious comments here reflect disgusting partisan jabbery, an insult to Mr Bowe and to all of those who consider themselves interested in psephology.
I’m sure George has the cojones, Ron, he just has to ask Rumsfeldt or Cheney where he left them.
Mary Brewerton was the ALP candidate in Mayo last year. Now she is running as an independent.
Completely off topic. I’ve got the NRL on in the background and a Dronco player was tackled blatantly into touch and the touchie missed it.
They do nothing, get to make one decision in a game, and get it wrong. FAIR DINKUM!
732 Ron that was all in the link at 632. It must have taken a while to translate it into news for English speakers and readers.
735 Centre the action was probably on his blind side. Queenslanders can be very one-eyed at times.
Adam in Canberra,
Check your email
Sorry Fulvio
that adverse list related to all publicly sourced words from Obama’s own mouth , so he’s not much , but my adverse list for geriatric McCain is even longer
I started accumualting files on both and should hav stopped when it was obvious earlier on NEITHER would get elected by Public in ‘oz’ because they both bullsh.t and also both flip flop regularly on policy Incidently oiliness’s past very close ‘associations’ with both a convicted terrorist , a fraudster and an extremist would NOT qualify him to be appointed to any governemnt Statutory Authority in this country at all on governance and good character grounds , whereas McCain dis barment would be he’s a complete ‘maverick’
As for George Bush , he does hav beliefs , i just happen to think bluntly they all stink , and also I think he is a fool
.
Reckon we ar a ‘lucky’ country
What’s a Dronco? William, please ban all thugball talk here.
What blind side? He’s a touch judge. They can only look one way lol.
Steve, Queenslanders, one-eyed, Naahh.
Adam you know, Brisbane Droncos. That’s what we call them in Sydney. Yes St.George have scored. O.K. No more footy talk.
Unlike Simon Beaumont on 6PR who has “Kahunas”
And I refer you to this post on The Worst Of Perth
http://theworstofperth.com/2008/03/17/squeezing-his-kahunas/
Steve
#736
thanks Steve I did not realise that , when I pulled up link earklier after you posted it , I couldn’t understand language , just tried again same , so that must be source info thanks
Oh dear I hope this doesn’t become a US thread. They were always so bitter and twisted – no fun at all.
But I will take issue with the statement that Obama could scare Hillary. There have been numerous reports over the last year that he finds her intimidating.
Zoom I saw one debate between them and Obama held his ground so strongly. He appeared the strong leader of the two IMHO.
A few curiosities with the American election.
We take a baseline of the Kerry states.
Kerry = 251 (1 faithless elector, should be 252)
Bush = 286
Swing states include:
Nevada – 5
Colorado – 9
New Mexico – 5
Iowa – 7
Ohio – 20
Michigan – 17
Virginia – 13
Some say others but I wouldn’t be too ambitious about Florida or Pensylvania changing hands from 2004. Here is is my analysis.
For Obama to win he needs 19 electoral votes (18 unofficially as if there is 269-269 it goes to the HOR and the Dems will do well in the HOR this year).
Assuming Obama wins all of the Kerry state the following applies. It is likely that Iowa and New Mexico will be trending Democratic this year giving:
Obama = 264
McCain = 274
This means Obama needs to pick up at least another 5 electoral votes, this could mean Nevada which gives 269-269 or Colorado which gives 273-265.
If Obama loses Michigan or Pensylvania he is in serious trouble unless these big state losses are confined to one and Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, Missouri or some other tougher, less Democratic state goes his favour. I think Michigan will go for Obama however due to his status as a Midwestern.
If Obama loses New Hampshire, Gore did not win it in 2000 Obama can still scrape through with both Colorado and New Mexico and Iowa with 269-269.
Some wildcards like Montana could come through Democratic depending on a number of factors but with its 3EV it may not be as significant as some of the others.
Nevertheless, interesting race.
OIl prices out of Georgia war
Good Oil supplies ar in Central Asian countries and was a smal step away from M/E oil reliance for Turkey AND West generally Russia did control all pipeline from Cenral Asian Republics (formerley in soviet bit) Georgian oil pipeline was non russian ‘controlled’ and ran 1700km through Azerbaijan Georgia and Turkey , from Baku to Ceyhan
ALL of this oil ended up in Europe and USA , about 1% of World suplies , but intended to grow in futre Assume oil prices to be somewhat afected in future through uncertainty so another Geo political dream of minimally weaning off oil sheiks is in tatters
Suppose Czechs of 1968 remember tanks rolling in also
NOTE NEWS that Russian PM quote says Russia will act as “Guarantor for Ossettia and Abkhazia autonimous provinces on whatever they deside for there future” (these ar Georgian sovereign territory for heaven sake Russia will ‘bribe’ them out of Georgia and under there control sufferage (not sure Steve if this was in that link ?) Its like stretching anologies like Indonesia guaranteeing NSW and Q’ld can breakaway from ‘oz’ whilst having there troops in Brissy and Sydneytown
One day a journo will say this Georgia fiasco was appeasement , then more journos may say it , then public groups may , then public may , then finally World polliticans like USA/NATO , but it will then be too bloody late for Georgian peoples
Sorry Centre my friend , mr oiliness a pussycat in direct hard questoning ABC interview then latrer NBC one , but hell surely Georgia is more important than a few Yankee doodlers anyway
I’m sure Putin would find HRC intimidating too. Obama couldn’t intimidate Bambi.
Pages: « 1 … 13 14 [15] 16 17 … 20 » Show All