The Australian reports that Newspoll has produced its second successive result of 57-43 in Labor’s favour. The Prime Minister’s approval rating is up two points to 68 per cent, while Brendan Nelson’s preferred leader rating is down two points to 12 per cent. More to follow.
We also have the weekly Essential Research survey showing Labor’s lead steady on 58-42. Also featured are questions on issues deemed important in determining vote choice, economic conditions, interest rates and China’s human rights record. The first of these provides at least some good news for the Coalition if you know where to look: Labor’s core strengths of health and education are found to have fallen in importance since January, while economic management and taxation are up (though so is environment). There is also an echo of the Gippsland by-election in the substantial increase on “Australian jobs and the protection of local industries”.
UPDATE: Newspoll graphic here. Brendan Nelson’s disapproval rating up from 42 per cent to 48 per cent.
969 Comments
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Apologies, that was a typo, not a dig at your user-name.
Don’t forget DD elections result in the backdating of Senators’ terms to the previous 1 July, so there’s a range of dates that constrain the following election as well. Eg, if a DD election was held in March 09, the next half senate polling day can’t be any later than May-June 2011.
d
Jovial,
As Mal Brough said to the former Howard cabinet, the pension needs to be increased. Not just rent allowance.
Gary Humphries is waffling about his Senate enquiry, but Brough actually raised it in Cabinet.
Who knocked it back? Tip probably.
ruawake, Tip used to send Brough all over the country to make promises without any financial followup and especially when Brough was Minister in charge of Disability services.
More Libs caught openly supporting a coup.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/online-liberals-push-for-costello-20080811-3tmp.html
I hope this is the right thread. I noted that The Australian did not bother to headline this Newspoll on its front page. If I had time, I’d do some research comparing the Newspoll results with the headlines for each over the past 18 months – I have my suspicions.
155 Diogenes
Kewl, let’s hope they tear themselves apart!
Jovial
How about we all sign up to the online push for Costello.
The Coalition and their supporters just cannot and will not admit that 12 successive interest rises,10 in the Howard/Costello years and 2 early in the Rudd/Swann Government term (attributed to the previous government) had anything to do with Howard/Costello economic mismanagement.
Even though our economy is mostly controlled by what happens overseas, the extent of the suffering is governed by what is done before any downturn. Many of us were talking of the impeding dangers of the huge personal debts of ours and the USA. The Howard/Costello government was warned a number of times by the RBA (interest rises) to slow down the economy however they did nothing, they were in a bribing mood and would could not change.
Now they want to place all the blame on Rudd and Swann for the Coalition’s incompetence.
hehehe was thinking about that
It’s probably a smart idea to get all the Labor supporters to push for a $weets comeback. It achieves two objectives at once. Forces the sweet one’s hand and makes him knock back the inevitable leadership offer or forces the MSM into a lather of excitement to know they have sown the seeds of a Labor re election.
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=26608641804
He He
ruawake
That’s a lovely photo of Julia. She came up a treat. Have you read the reply by Paul Ritchie to the Age article. There’s some serious cognitive dissonance going on there. He’s just wants the world’s greatest treasurer to stick around for a few years to give us the benefit of his wisdom and vast experience. But my favourite line is the last one;
He seems to missing the point here. We want Cossie to stay around more than the Libs do. I agree with Adam that we don’t want Turnbull.
Adam in Canberra @ 122 -
yes, china has created a reasonable facsimile of a free-market economy, but in the long run it can’t succeed without democracy, because only democracy (which includes free trade unions and NGOs) can prevent corruption and environmental degredation, which China’s kind of capitalism is producing
I would argue that Chinese corruption pales into insignificance compared to the official corruption inherent in the U.S. – think the military-industrial complex, Halliburton/KRB etc, farm subsidies, the huge bailouts of the banking system (and not just recently, it happened after the 1980s Savings and Loans scandals too).
And America is by far the worst polluter in human history, both per capita and overall.
I also submit that democracy has had very little to do with the fortunes of past economic superpowers. The British may have had democracy at home, to varying degrees, but there was precious little of it in the parts of the Empire that created the wealth. The same can be said of the Romans, Spain, Portugal and the Dutch.
Diogenes, an anyone but Turnbull campaign. Now you’re talking. You’d instantly have the full support of the Liberal Party, the National Party, the Greens, the Murdoch Press, the ALP, the Pineapple Party, the Fairfax papers and the major TV stations.
Amazingly, the OO has a much more positive take on the Draft Cossie site, chiding Fairfax for its “sombre coverage.” It’s all just a sign of the overwhelming love good-minded conservatives have for this great underappreciated Australian. They are waiting for replies to more than 200 invitations to join – including to Mr Howard, The Australian’s columnist Janet Albrechtsen, Ms Bishop and Alexander Downer.
ESJ- have you received your invite yet?
Costello supporters turn to Facebook
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24167975-5013871,00.html
How sad when the powerhouse of ACT Liberal Party Tony De Domenico joins the Tip = Messiah Facebook group and none of the media mention him.
ruawake, the support for Tip is just overwhelming and almost getting to the stage where only the few against him can be individually named.
#164 – Democracy is for the birds when you have empty stomach or as Confucius used to say “you cannot eat democracy”. The challenges for the Chinese Government have always been:
* How to feed 1.34 billion people
* How do you at least give them some human dignity not sub-human like the Japanese and Allied Powers used to regard them
* How do you keep social cohesion among the 1.34 billion people
It is very well for us here of 21 million people to pontificate of what the Chinese Government should or shouldn’t do. We all should be grateful that the Chinese do not have the kind of religious and social divides that have shackled India.
That almost guarantees failure then
So what would News Ltd’s angle be if Cossie took the leadership and the polls held for Labor?
My guess is they’d attempt to reset the honeymoon fantasy (it being valid only in relation to particular leadership contests, so they would explain).
But then how would their “narrative” change if, once the honeymoon delusion had run its course, the polls continued to hold for Labor?
My guess is that Everyone Loves Sham would quit journalism and open a mens nautical clothing store in Noosa.
I don’t know about The Mayne Abuser. He’s a little more desperate, so it’s likely he’d move in with his copy editor and construct some parallel universe out of papier mache in the lounge room – a chamber, a miniature Cossie, a “narrative” …
Mayoferal @ 164, I’m with you on judgment about the comparison of the corruption in the U.S. versus China. Howard et al. were just so primary school playground with AWB. Now, I wonder if anyone in the gov’t has been doing a bit of trawling through the contracts for the Christmas Island detention centre, for example. You never know what has fallen down the back of the couch when you’ve been in residence for 11 years.
Inner Westie, I’ve noted on a couple of threads that no matter what gets flung about as the end of the honeymoon (stupid concept to apply to politics), the all spin, no substance nature of the Rudd gov’t., he’s a control freak/micro-manager vs. he creates chaos, we’re headed into turbulent economic times, therefore, the great Costello must be dragged out from under the bed, even if he’s whimpering about not being lauded in this lunchtime (preferably extended with a noice sticky to go with the pud, to make up for being bullied by his older brother), the polls aren’t going anywhere. That’s interesting.
Adam thank you for your response
One issue is that in absolute terms the US can continue to grow but in relative terms it can decline. In economic terms it is the latter that has been happening. Conversely, in relative terms, the US military has never been stronger.
I question your basic assertion that what is happening is just a blip because of Bush @ co’ mismanagement. As others have pointed out, the US’ relative share of the world’s economy has had a long-term declining trend. There is nothing much in the wind to indicate that this trend will break any time soon. Bush has probably accelerated the trend by burning an estimated $3 trillion (high end estimate) in Iraq. I don’t have any proof, but I would guess that the end of most empires is usually accompanied by debasement of the coinage, serious balance of payment problems and big external debts. The US has these at the moment.
I agree that China is most likely heading for trouble. The question is how big will the trouble be? One reason is water: They are pumping fossil ground water at greater than recharge rates; they are poisoning existing rivers and lakes; their eating habits are moving up the heavier water costs chain; summer water flows from melting himalayan glaciers are heading for a crash; their industrialisation uses lots more water than it used to; and, probably, there will be significant regional CC variations in rainfall. They are busy damming what they can, so to some extent they are exporting their water woes to adjacent countries. For China, it is use now, pay later. As with water, so with most areas of the chinese environment. Taken in isolation, water issues are probably not insurmountable. However, to fix them and all the other environmental problems will take lots of $ and I would have no idea of what the opportunity cost of all that investment will be. However, the problems that other economic centres face individually or together in themselves do not necessarily make a compelling case that the US is not in some sort of trouble.
One of the reasons the US is interesting is because it is a different sort of empire from other empires.
I am not sure that I agree with the notion that being a democracy is going to turn around the US’s the long term decline in relative economic power. There have been many long term empires that have been run by emperors or monarchs, have grown but have then declined.
The old metropolitan empires were often run by (metropolitan) democracies as they declined. These include england, holland and france. It may be that a sufficient majority of the folk back home got sick of the cost of empire and so those countries baled out of ruling empires. Autocratic empires are not going to take too much notice of what people at home think and may continue to maintain empires for longer.
I agree that democracies are probably more likely to be less corrupt but it is not an absolute rule, and may only be a relative boon. At the height of its empire building during the Napoleonic war, one in four pounds invested in the British navy was defrauded, stolen et cetera. It was a thoroughly corrupt polity. You nominate Indonesia positively but it is generally rated as one of the half dozen most corrupt countries in the world. I would also question whether significant decision making in the US is not heavily corrupted by graft and political donations. I don’t have much of an idea of how much, but I am certain it is there to some extent.
Nation states,as opposed to empires, run by democracies can also decline, so it is hard to argue that democracy per se leads to growth or to decline.
I suggest that there are other important factors in why empires grow and decline that have not been considered in the above string. These include: exhaustion of low-hanging fruit commodities (eg oil in the US) and exhaustion of something like the ‘drive’ to empire or the end of manifest destiny. In democracies it might exhibit in something like a reverse drive to isolationism while problems back home are fixed. The degree to which societies are militarized may also be important. There was a time when standing armies were viewed with deep suspicion by most US citizens. No standing army, no empire. The current deeply entrenched position of the US armed forces may get deeper or there may be a time when the citizens start saying, well, we’d prefer better health care and education and less spending on the military.
Runawake
There you go and spoil cossie’s site saying he is hopeless That is not th idea at all
Fortunately i’ve followed with a strirring rendition for th savviour
With 12 years as Treasurer Peter has runs on board with interests rates management and terms of trade deficit control Make him leader to take on Rudd in 2010 with Peter Costello’s record as evidence
by RonPollb
Interest rates 12 increases
Terms of trade deficit, was 184 billion in 1996 , at 2007 electon was 540 billion ,
Wonder how long it will take just one of those alleged Liberal financial wizards to pick th above up is a total negative to Cossie , and then argue Peter reely did other Treasuary things right
“158
rod Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Jovial
How about we all sign up to the online push for Costello.”
some of us already did.
hehe
Ron, how quickly we forget, with a proven track record like that I think he will be the best friend Labor ever had. Bring $weetie back immediately and kick him upstairs into a leadership role.
Agreed HSO. In some ways I think a misguided faith in the principle of “authoritative voice equals powerful voice” affects the way people understand the pronouncements of mainstream political journalists in this country. (Probably any country, and probably all modes of communication … but anyway.)
Lamb Shams, for all his “little pieces of paper” (as BB would put it), is actually quite articulate and knows how to forcefully prosecute an argument. Ditto for the Queen of Bronte. Dare I venture that Anglo Oz’s convict heritage has cultivated within its dominant white population a public respect for larrikinism and irreverence, but a private desire to be told how to think and act by authoritative figures who can turn a phrase or two (crack a whip or two).
Is the USA Empire declining?
Yes.
Why.
Europe has learnt how to expand an empire without military force, it is now the largest economy. If Russia hadn’t acted Georgia would have been part of Europe within 10 year, probable still will be.
USA: Expansion into the middle east failed, influence in the rest of America declining. Will probable lose reserve currency status to Europe within 10 years.
Russia: OK they have their tanks in the next country, but in the long term I bet they don’t take economic control.
Adam in Canberra Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
” The only Liberal Rudd need fear is Turnbull IMHO.”
Don’t worry it will take at least two more losses for the right wing nutters to lose control of the Liberal party.
steve
#177
“Ron, how quickly we forget, with a proven track record like that I think he will be the best friend Labor ever had. Bring $weetie back immediately and kick him upstairs into a leadership role.”
Remember that “debt truck” he had of Federal Government 96 billion debt ?
Am having barbarian thoughts for 2010 , of a new debt multi coloured truck
for th terms of trade deficit
pictures of Cossie all over, Mr Smirk and all , 1996 $184 billion , 2007 $540 billion
And cossies words ‘I didn’t hav ticker to challenge Howard but look what I did with th debt’
Inner Westie @ 178:
IW, with the greatest respect… you’ve got to be kidding.
If Shanahan knew how to “forcefully prosecute an argument” he win a few more than he does now.
There’s a difference between being able to sit down at your keyboard and make up whatever greasy bathwater argument you feel like at the moment and actually convincing people, that is, getting them to act on your maniacal pamphleteering.
I should know.
“and actually convincing people, that is, getting them to act on your maniacal pamphleteering.
I should know.”
tell us more BB
181 Ron, Peter Costello would add new understanding to the ‘Peter Principal’. Cream only rises till it sours.
Tempted to publish my own Newspaper here , th “ozzie ostrich” , with head political writer , Andrewe Shanibullibolt , giving daily opinion ’spins’
@169
‘Democracy is for the birds when you have empty stomach or as Confucius used to say “you cannot eat democracy”. The challenges for the Chinese Government have always been:
* How to feed 1.34 billion people
* How do you at least give them some human dignity not sub-human like the Japanese and Allied Powers used to regard them
* How do you keep social cohesion among the 1.34 billion people
It is very well for us here of 21 million people to pontificate of what the Chinese Government should or shouldn’t do. We all should be grateful that the Chinese do not have the kind of religious and social divides that have shackled India.’
In fact, China does have religious and social divides, not exactly the same as in India, but much more significantly handled differently by the government. If China were more like India, it would be better for some people and worse for others. Whether the Chinese people themselves would prefer to have their country run more like the way India is run is something we can’t tell. Why we should be grateful for the way the Chinese government runs China I can’t see. I can’t see how it would be any worse for us if China were run more like India.
135 Adam – yep Turnbull is it for the Libs at the moment. Here’s hoping they’re too stupid to realise.
Mind you I also think later is better for Turnbull – the sheen will come off the more people see him. By the end of the Republic referendum even I was thinking about voting “No” because he was so damn obsequious – and he hasn;t learned anyhting since then either.
ruawake, your I love Cossie post has an answer, you commie!
steve
#184
“181 Ron, Peter Costello would add new understanding to the ‘Peter Principal’. Cream only rises till it sours.”
Yes Steve , and in his case it may not hav to rise far ! What is rmarkable is GST was a Howard creation from Hewson , so in 12 years just what did this guy do
There was no restructure of Taxation system gered to equity & incentive , no net extension of major public services like Schools & hospitals for future , no Information highway broadband and criticaly no major infrastructure created for jobs & future ‘oz’ competitiveness All he’s left behind as a memory is that smirk of arrogance i’ve joineed his Facebook as a member to draft him back as Leader & posted
BB, I was putting myself in the mind of an uncritical reader – or, at least, a reader with far less skill in “meta-analysis” than you. I’m not sure that the influence of Lamb Sham’s authoritativeness (let alone its existence) is denied so casually by many of the OO’s readership. For them, I claim, it is real. The force with which he prosecutes an argument is defined by how much impact it has on those to whom it is delivered. (A set which does not include you or me or a great number of people who are sceptical enough, indeed, who are simply inspired enough, to look for a subtext.)
While the bludgers are exporting democracy to other sites, I found an opportunity too good to miss.
That intellectual economic heavyweight the divine Miss O is live-blogging tomorrow. The topic is the somewhat inflammatory “Will you lose your home?”. She will display her wisdom on a range of weighty macroeconomic issues such as interest rates, house prices, and the looming recession. You are all cordially invited to join the HIGH NOON live debate.
What a treat!
Warning to Finns!! Stop reading now!
She is also specialising in criticism of the Beijing Olympics at the moment. Her new blog is “The Glum Games”.
There is a lovely response to her from Mulga Mumble brain;
J-D @ 186
Deng offered the big deal to the Chinese people. ‘You guys go off and get rich but keep your noses out of politics. Leave that to the Party.’ That’s the sort of deal that usually only works for a generation. But the next generation, particularly the ones who got rich, usually then want to get into the politics as well. It is an inherently unstable situation.
I have read somewhere or other that there are 20-30 000 incidents of civil violence in China every year. These incidents generally arise when some locals are bastardised by local or regional party officials. Redress is usually short-circuited courtesy the same folk who implemented whatever bastardry happened in the first place, hence the need for Mission Control Beijing (MCB). The bastardry often involves things like stealing land, paying poor prices for agricultural produce or not bothering to pay wages.
MCB, if it hears about a violent incident, sends a crisis team to try to stitch something up. I am not sure how often MCB is successful but it is useful to know that while, from the outside, China looks highly centralised, monolithic and totally top down, it is not. City, regional and local cadres can, and do, get away with murder.
Unlike in Taiwan, partially in Singapore and partially in Hong Kong, the mainland Chinese have hardly ever had democracy. What they have had is rulers with some form of ‘mandate from heaven’. In other words, as long as government delivers a fairly peaceful sort of existence where you can eke out a living, then OK. One of the reasons why MCB has occasional big sets of highly publicized executions of corrupt officials is to maintain its mandate from heaven. But when sufficient folk believe that the ruling dynasty has lost the mandate from heaven, the ruling dynasty is in big trouble. At such times, civil unrest may take a religious form. This is why the Communist Party reacts so strongly to Falun Gong. It is also why it is disingenuous of the Falun Gong mob to pretend that they are only a misunderstood religious movement. They potentially form a very dangerous revolutionary nucleus.
Whether most Chinese prefer their model of governance to that of India is a moot point. My guess would be that most Chinese would hardly really know what is happening in India. MCB likes it that way.
Pardon my ignorance, but who is Miss O?
Ron
Have you heard that mining service company WorleyParsons are planning to build a billion dollar thermal solar plant – the world’s largest – in the Pilbara within 3 years?
It will be the first of a planned 34 across the country by 2020. The first evidence that the ETS isn’t all doom and gloom but good for business. And as a major player in the mining sector possibly a sign that coal’s future isn’t rosy.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/12/2333041.htm?section=australia
Inner Westie @ 178. Interesting perspective on the Oz psyche. However, I think while it was something you could put your finger on, around the era between the World Wars, and maybe a bit beyond into the fifties, Australia is no longer like that place.
Would you believe I walk down the street to get lunch and look at the tall folks from Africa, and think, geez, these people are so … tall, and then there’s the tiny, teeny Vietnamese gals. Oz is something else these days, particularly when you start talking to these really, really tall folk and the really teensy, tiny folk. You’d swear you were in a Tolkien story, many a time.
Will you lose your home?
Hmm Costello Howard inflation and rate rises. It was far more affordable to buy the family home in Hawke’s time with high rates than now with housing and rent become unaffordable to many.
C.Overingblah is going to try and slag Labor how on this? Every financial pressure at the moment. Bet she has a bunch of pre-made sentences to cut and paste.
The LNP still believe they have a Mandate from Heaven even though their high priest was sacrificed on the Bennelong altar.
Mayoferal,
It was a natural. Australia has far more sunshine than coal.
Greeensborough Growler @ 197 -
Perhaps, but coal ismuch cheaper and we have enough to last us a very long time. The WorleyParsons project would not even have been considered if JWH had won.
MayoFeral
#194
Thats Mayo , great news isn’t it Each power station to power 300,000 homes , that 10 million potentialy meaning alot of excess power spare
Seeing presumably those major companies would hav had some unofficial briefings of generally where ETS plan will head , that is positive of what Rudd has in mind as ETS has got on those Majors there skate boards
Will watch for more data on structure & precise buiding planning of th thermal solar plant This is super solar
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