The Australian reports that Newspoll has produced its second successive result of 57-43 in Labor’s favour. The Prime Minister’s approval rating is up two points to 68 per cent, while Brendan Nelson’s preferred leader rating is down two points to 12 per cent. More to follow.
We also have the weekly Essential Research survey showing Labor’s lead steady on 58-42. Also featured are questions on issues deemed important in determining vote choice, economic conditions, interest rates and China’s human rights record. The first of these provides at least some good news for the Coalition if you know where to look: Labor’s core strengths of health and education are found to have fallen in importance since January, while economic management and taxation are up (though so is environment). There is also an echo of the Gippsland by-election in the substantial increase on “Australian jobs and the protection of local industries”.
UPDATE: Newspoll graphic here. Brendan Nelson’s disapproval rating up from 42 per cent to 48 per cent.
969 Comments
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ESJ,
And the libs can be the “Druthers”. You know, they’d “druther” be in office than facing years of irrelevance. They’d “druther” stay irrelevant than develop policy.
Mayoferal,
Unforunately not…. It’s higher than last month but pretty bad overall.
We’ve increased to only marginally below the 2001 trough (US recession and 9/11) and except for that haven’t been this low since 1993.
the judge.
The site you mention is a parasite. William has politely asked them on a number of occaissions to desist from using the PB name and brand. However, they have basically given him the two finger salute.
It seems the operators and posters there are happy to steal someones reputation and intellectual property rights in order to further their own personal agendas.
I see them as a den of thieves.
Its about time James Ron and th Ronnettes took at big run at Australian lite Greens and there shallow moralistic obstructions to Sir Kevin and sound policy
in just last 2 weeks
SENATE: Lite greens oppose FuelWatch because they are unconvinced FuelWatch would lead to a reduction in petrol prices !!
What sort of policy purity is that ? (to keep little people motorists uninformed)
WA: Lite Greens claim they oppose uranium mining , yet ar talking to WA Liberals who FAVOR unranium mining , about giving them preferences Why ? because Labor favours exploration , but has no comittment to actual mining !!
What sort of policy purity is that ?
NT: Lite Greens oppose NT unranium dump , yet allow open preferences & so some of there preferenses go to NT Liberals who FAVOR a NT uranium dump ,
yet Labor opposes a unranium dump !!
What sort of policy purity is that ?
NT: Lite Greens oppose NT destroying Daly River with Development , yet allow “open preferences” & so some of there preferenses go to NT Liberals who FAVOR destroying Daly river with Develapment (yet Labor opposes th Daley river Development !!
What sort of policy purity is that ?
SOLAR STATION: 1 billion announcement last nite , do Lite Greens say thats great !! NO Christine Milne cmoes onto Lateline criticising Rudd he should do more for heavens sake each power station powers 3000,000 homes , plan 34 thats 10 million homes of solar enegy creates and this lite Green dill makes a lame criticism , how cras and empty
Ronnettes come out and slap down these lite Greens , Hell Brenda Nelson must be in charge of th lite Greens Party also EVERY one of these 5 lite Greens stanses ar hypocriticol and anti Labor with no intelectual purity
Here is a link about consumer confidence. Let’s see what Caroline makes of it. I thought consumer confidence went down in a recession but I don’t know much about economics.
Australian consumer confidence jumped in August from a 16-year low as fuel prices fell and the central bank signaled it may cut interest rates.
The sentiment index climbed 9.1 percent from July to 86.2 points, the biggest increase in almost two years, according to a Westpac Banking Corp. and Melbourne Institute survey released today in Sydney. It is the sixth straight reading of less than 100, showing pessimists still outnumber optimists.
Australian Consumer Sentiment Rises 9.1% on Fuel Drop
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=ajnj.wRREiKY&refer=home
Consumer Sentiment did fall 6.7% last month….
It’s sort of like the OO’s reports of massive increases in Nelson’s popularity from 7% to 12%….
Well, at least consumer confidence is heading in the right direction. Still, it would be good if it got above 100 sometime soon…
At the moment we’re sitting in a nice little spot. The falling oil price has more than offset the fall in the AUD. Hence, we can have rate cuts and falling oil prices.
However, if oil even stabilises while we have an easing cycle the fall in the dollar will see the petrol prices rise. That will be less good for sentiment.
Fuelwatch definitely DOA:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24173996-601,00.html
Fielding joins Xenophon in rejecting Fuelwatch…
And the NRMA unhappy about Fuelwatch being blocked:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/nrma-blasts-decision-to-block-fuelwatch/2008/08/13/1218306956422.html
Hmm – maybe the politics of Fuelwatch will play out for the Ruddster – he can blame the Libs for knocking it back without taking the risk of it not working at all…
the judge @ 250, thank you, but do you have a view about GG’s point @ 253?
Thomas Paine (221),
The “Rudd doesn’t seem to have done much” is the same line tried against the Bracks Government in Victoria. It is the twin of “Labor has no policies”. People’s ideas are often formed uncritically by repeated exposure to generalised messages to such an extent that the belief engendered comes to be regarded as unarguable fact. My favourite example is the belief that militant teachers unions control state Labor governments and win massive privileges for teachers – utterly contrary to the facts, but firmly believed on the Andrew Bolt Forum and in the editorial offices of The Australian.
However, this “Labor hasn’t done anything” belief will not take hold because what Labor will have done by the next election will be obvious to all who can read and see, just as the benefits of Labor in Victoria have been obvious: even my dog seems them when I take him for his walk past all the brand-new Labor Government built infrastructure in my town. Steve Bracks won two landslides despite the oft-expressed belief that he had done nothing. Kevin Rudd will end up doing a lot, and trivial stuff like FuelWatch and GroceryChoices won’t come into the equation in the long run.
Boerwar @ 262,
As a occasional commenter on the other site, I can tell you that GG gives a less-than-partial account of its operation.
I’m not sure if William has expressed a wish to be disaffiliated from it – although I note that the link to that site from here has disappeared recently.
However, the people (and the debate) there are interesting, if a little one-sided (I think I’m the most conservative blogger on that site). But they do come up with good points and the discussion about Russia and Georgia is informative…
Somewhere in the distant mists of memory I seem to recall a view that the consumer confidence index trends are good predictors of voting intentions. Does anyone know if there is a skerrick of validity in this dredged up bit of the past?
Swing Lowe
Completely agree with 264.
However, I did see a few occasions where William’s posts were moderated and binned. The irony of the Pollbludger having his own posts deleted from a site named after him was lost on the denizens of the site. They really need to change the name.
Swing Lowe,
I may be partisan, but I am right on this occaission. If you need verification please refer to their editorial thread for the self serving justifications of their LEGAL SNIP … and their unseemly abuse at William for simply asking that his rights be respected.
Yes Boerwar,
I’d say #253 was a ringing endorsement.
Let’s just say jealousy and envy might be a motivation for such misinformation.
Diogenes and Swing Lowe
GG in #253 made an unqualified assertion , and in #267 backed it I hav not seen GG ever make wild asserions about on subject , so I assume he is 100% correct
Yous two now can continue posting , but with now pre knowledge of GG’s post information of shabby (at th minimum) treatment of our moderator , and shame on you if you do
as for th Judge , obbviously a generic ‘mole’ role here
OK, thanks guys, I’ll have a look at the site and a tad foreconfused is forearmed.
Comment referring to previous comment that got a LEGAL SNIP deleted – PB
Whilst I may not totally agree with everything that goes on at the US site (such as binning William’s comments), it does serve a purpose – a forum to discuss the US elections amongst fellow Aussies (without putting up with the News Ltd trolls).
As for William’s intellectual property rights being infringed, I think that’s more of a personal issue between William and the editor(s) of the site that should be settled between them (and not something for us to comment on). That said, speaking as a lawyer, it isn’t quite the open-and-shut case of “trademark infringement” that GG makes it out to be – due to various legal reasons (jurisdiction, commercial benefit, etc.)
SNIP: Reference to previous comment that got a LEGAL SNIP removed – PB
So, the point of this post is, blog away there if you want to have a in-depth (if slightly dull and one-sided) discussion on US politics and also go there if you want to see a variety of views on Russia-Georgia conflict…
SNIP: Comment refers to previous comment that got a LEGAL SNIP – PB
The Overington live blog is arguing about FuelWatch and GroceryWatch. Her argument is, repeatedly, that providing information on prices “is not the business of Government”. Why not?
Diog – maybe she should start screaming like a mad harpie over abolishing the ABS then.
Dunno what she thinks the CPI is if not price information published by government.
Possum
Her next argument was that GroceryWatch would just be a great big tax-payer funded advertisement for Aldi, which is German (as if that was relevant). She then says we don’t need to hear this because we all know Aldi is cheaper anyway!!
LEGAL SNIP – PB
But everyone is entitled to their own ethics and opinions regarless of how sleazy they may be.
Totally agree Chris. Those pushing the ‘done nothing’ barrow probably believe the statement to be absolutely true, but that’s because they dismiss everything that the government HAS done as being nothing if they don’t agree with it (e.g. apology, kick off abolishing WC, sign Kyoto). It’s not that the govt has done nothing, it’s just that to the haters they’ve done nothing that they agree with (and will contort their beliefs accordingly as the government keeps doing things).
That’s good, GG. Work the diminished responsibility angle. Your’e not drunk are you?
Just had a quick perusal …
can’t believe discussion about the US site is still topical!
Move on fellas.
An excellent and balance article on the individual vs the collective.
Harmony and the Dream, By DAVID BROOKS
The rise of China isn’t only an economic event. It’s a cultural one. The ideal of a harmonious collective may turn out to be as attractive as the ideal of the American Dream.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/12/opinion/12brooks.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
Finns
Thanks for that article. Absolutely fascinating. It’s a shame that he didn’t include references to some of those ideas between the basis of individualistic and collective societies. I would love to read more on them. I’m sure I can at least find the evolutionary psychology basis for his comments about contagions.
Rejecting the concerns of the senator whoes support you need and essentially calling them an idiot, probally isn’t the best strategy to gain their vote.
To be perfectly honest, I’m thinking that the Rudd government would privately be thrilled about the defeat in the Senate of Fuelwatch.
With it about to get defeated, Rudd can start blaming an “obstructionist” Senate, much like every recent PM has, saying that they have not allowed the government to act on helping reduce fuel costs for ‘working families’. As such, the fault now lies not with the government for not doing anything but with the Opposition for stopping the scheme from coming into force (expect the NRMA to assist the government with the attacks).
However, the added benefit for Rudd is that no one ever gets to find out whether the scheme actually works – which means no political downside for Rudd (from what was beginning to look like a dud policy initiative).
Hence, Albanese’s aggressive tone against Xenophon – he doesn’t want Mr X to support the bill; instead, he wants to ensure that he doesn’t have a change of heart…
285 Swing Lowe – I agree. It’s not a bad thing for the government.
Any views on the odds of a double dissolution? Despite comments about ALP’s lead “dropping” to 57/43 that is still higher than the polls at election time. If carpenter gets returned in WA does anyone think Rudd would be tempted to take on his formidable opponent Nelson in an early election?
TW,
Confronted with the facts, you resort to abuse. Good for you.
Socrates,
What issue is Rudd going to pull the trigger over?
It can’t be Workchoices, coz the Liberals will allow it to pass.
It won’t be Fuelwatch or Grocerywatch, coz they’re both policy duds (IMHO).
It needs to be over something substantive – like if Rudd attempted to lift the compulsory superannuation rate to 12%…
Comment referring to previous comment that got a LEGAL SNIP removed – PB
286
gary- you mind reader you
Fate of FuelWatch in Liberal hands: Rudd
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/13/2334002.htm?section=justin
ETS is looking the most likely to me.
I think Rudd would prefer not to go to election straight efter it’s introduction, since it will increase electricity prices and the like.
So if he can convince the Liberals to block it in the Senate (when 80% of the population want it) he will then have all the necessary requirements filled:
- Popular with electorate
- Reasonably important (enough so that the electorate doesn’t begrudge having to vote about it)
- Liberals find the topic awkward
Swing Lowe & Diogenes
please do not be hypocritical “playing” word games
Fact is Moderator actualy closed his US thread completely down because as he efectively said , those posters were so childish & pety So much so it had become almost a fulltime job for our moderator to moderate them (and our Moderator was unpaid by th way)
Then , our Moderator being a ’softy’ and good guy , helps these undeserving posters to set up there own thread !!! Even supplying plug in & computer program info to them to set up there own thread on the internet !! And also even gives them a link , and even lends temporarily his PB brand name , and so genorosly all this by William to help them get started !
But thereafter , there ‘childish’ nonsense continues he believes on there own Site , so quite properly our moderator wants his PB brand name back after a month that he’s temporarily lent anyway , so that his brand name is kept to what standards he desires & is quite entitled to decide
NOW all this undeserving Gilligans group had to do is say to william is “yes we’ll do so immediately and thanks very much William we reely appreciate your help and also appreciate you lending temporarily your PB brand name”
No not thems , he gets efectively insulted by “stalling’ , Gilligans did not give back th temporarily lent PB brand name as requested , and so hav efectively refused
Such behavour is both an actionable civil matter and a gross breach of ethics ANY poster who wishs to condone such apalling behavour , (when our moderator has been so good to them and continuing to be to us in supplying us an informative ‘oz’ site for free) by continuing to also post there as well , knowing th above is both principals selfish and does not apply basic decency & ethics , (instead of posting at one or th other)
So Diogenes & Swing Lowe , now thats its all laid out here , do not hide behind a lame “oh its got nothing to do with me” non ethical lame excuse , get off th bloody fence , and show principal
RA,
The only problem with going to a DD over ETS is that the Libs can run the mother of all scare campaigns over the potential effects of implementing one.
All the Libs need to do is to get some half-baked consulting firm to run some “plausible” but unlikely projections that show the ETS ruining the Australian economy and shifting Aussie jobs overseas and it’s the new environmental Tampa.
It seems smarter to wait for the ETS to come through and wait until people realise that the world isn’t about to fall in. Hence, Rudd’s haste in ensuring that the ETS comes in in 2010 rather than 2011 (or 2012)…
IW,
Any reason you can’t confront the uncomfortable facts in this case?
Much easier to abuse me, eh?
Good for you.
Grocerywatch will be good LOL
It cost millions to publish the price of goods in each store for THE LAST WEEK!!!!
so when you drive from Sydney to Parramatta to buy your orange for $1 less, you will find out that the sale is now off, and it is now cheaper in Sydney….. that is one of the stupidest plans of all time
a. most people buy groceries at their work, on the way home or at their nearest supermarket, the time lost to drive an hour to buy grocery so it is cheaper is lunacy
b. supermarket has weekly sales, you are much better off getting the brochures of Coles/ Woolworth/ iga etc on the net, so people know when the sale is on. printing of last week’s “sales” prices is a waste of money
c. It is anti-competitive, Coles and Woolworth can just give the government their sales brochure and report for all 300 of thier stores, meanwhile an independant grocer will have to spend time to report how much they are charging to the government.
All it really is is to let Rudd waste your money so it look like he is doing something, when he should not have lie and implied he would do something about grocery prices
really rankles the born to rule set doesnt it dovif
why the idea of giving people unbiased information and comparisons is just too much
next they will demand that they have the right to vote
peasants eh what old chap?
GG,
consider this: when cry babies are confronted with a truthful description of their behaviour, they shriek “abuse, abuse!” (This, they find, is easier than a mature acknowledgement of their immaturity.)
Anyway, I would have expected more strength of character – dare I say, more forbearance – from a self-appointed Moses of the Masses.
My advice to you is be brave, catch the dawn punt to Gilligans Island and … RAISE HELL.
Totally unsupported factoid. Some people, yes, but “most”?
You miss the point. If shoppers can compare prices they have the opportunity to be bloody-minded about who is a few bucks dearer. I suggest quite a few would relish the opportunity.
You are talking through your hat. The goverrnment does not require reporting. If they did they would require a special law to get Grocery Choice up and running (as they do with Fuel Watch). They send “secret shoppers” around at random times to do the price watching. Cost free to the supermarket, unless they’re overcharging.
To me, the squwarking by the retailers is disingenuous. If Grocery Choice would have no effect, then when prices did not come down the retailers could crow that their prices were fair. What they are afarid of is clearly that extra competitive pressure will be put upon them.
All the rest is bull$hit, like the Liquor Retailers’ complaining about increased sales of spirits under the alcopops tax. If either scheme was so advantageous to the respective industry retailers, as they claimed, you’d think they’d shut up about it and ride the wave of increased profits.
Add in petrol (which both of the major supermarket chains tie-into their grocery businesses) via Fuel Watch, and you’d have a perfect storm of consumer information, which people could use or not, as they chose. As it is now we have no choice…. back the future of the “weekly petrol cycle”, price-gouging of fresh food (in particular) by the majors, and consumer unawareness that perhaps just up the road or around the corned (not from Sydney to Parramatta like some idiot said above) they might save a few bob on their weekly shop and keep the bastards honest.
No chance of that now. I hope the Libs and their trogs in support are proud of themselves.
As said in Labors press release, they are reporting “last weeks prices weekly”
It might work in place where sales never happens, but to spend $100 million to tell us the prices that was on sale at supermarket last week is lunacy
Bushfire Bill – where do you do your grocery shopping?
IW,
I have opinions and am not afraid to use them. You may disagree with them, but they are blunt, forthright and to the point.
If Moses came down from the mount today and said he had Ten Commandments, you would obviously disagree with and try to get around the one about “not covetting thy neighbour’s ass”.
Allegorically, that is what this issue is about.
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