The Australian reports that Newspoll has produced its second successive result of 57-43 in Labor’s favour. The Prime Minister’s approval rating is up two points to 68 per cent, while Brendan Nelson’s preferred leader rating is down two points to 12 per cent. More to follow.
We also have the weekly Essential Research survey showing Labor’s lead steady on 58-42. Also featured are questions on issues deemed important in determining vote choice, economic conditions, interest rates and China’s human rights record. The first of these provides at least some good news for the Coalition if you know where to look: Labor’s core strengths of health and education are found to have fallen in importance since January, while economic management and taxation are up (though so is environment). There is also an echo of the Gippsland by-election in the substantial increase on “Australian jobs and the protection of local industries”.
UPDATE: Newspoll graphic here. Brendan Nelson’s disapproval rating up from 42 per cent to 48 per cent.
969 Comments
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GG, if “Moses came down from the mount today and said he had Ten Commandments”, they’d dope him up and send him to the nearest psych ward (or, equivalently, promote him to cardinal)!
But seriously, methinks you’re a little hung up on asses. Child psychologists would refer to this as evidence of the “donkey phase”.
Or could it be that, gasp, you were referring to something else?
Anyway, keep your pecker up old boy. It’s not that the residents of the other place don’t like you, it’s just that they don’t understand you. I don’t mean the cry baby you. I mean the broad-shouldered, courageous, self-anointed vanquisher of chardonnay socialism you.
oh – it was about the neighbour’s DONKEY….
thank god for that – you should see`the size of him.
POSTERS
My #293 post was very detailed
IF it is inaccurate , William would say its inaccurate
IF it is accurate , any sensible poster knows why nothing is said
I would NOT hav said anything either , but a succession of Gilligans have come here today and not told th truth or attacked GG who did tell th truth
They ar Th Judge , Turning Worm and Inner Westie
Just because th truth is unpalatable , still makes it th truth Kevin Rudd stands for something postive including principals , hope so do his supporters
ron and GG -
it’s your principles that I so admire:
You may like to borrow my horse sometime…
you know- the High one.
300 Dovif
Where do you get the idea of $100m? I have seen $13m reported for 4 years IIRC
And it will work.
Well, this sh*tfight obviously has some passionate history behind it. I ain’t gonna get involved, other than to say that it is a bit rude of The Other Site to use the ‘pollbludger’ name, (though I seriously doubt it is illegal). With all those articulate brains and imagination, couldn’t they have come up with something a little original?
Jen, don’t encourage GG with talk of horses as these are related to asses and ass is another name for donkey.
Ron, thankyou for today’s word quiz. So far, your posts have helped to delay my London-to-a-brick dementia by at least five years. And just for the record, I am not a resident of, nor am I even an infrequent visitor of, your Troubled Island Home. I’m just an amused bystander.
Ron
I don’t think they should use the PB name. But I don’t think it’s a hanging offense. Just because I don’t agree with one of their decisions doesn’t mean I would boycott them.
It’s a bit like Rudd not boycotting the Beijing Olympics.
Anyway, apologies all. I’m clogging bandwidth with unpoll-ished flotsam.
Signing out …
No more on Gilligan’s Island please – certainly no more promotion of it. I should acknowledge that a particular description by GG of their actions was overreaching, and have removed it and a number of other references to it.
Anyway fellas.
I’m done.
This has become an ongoing shitfight over what was originally about the Clinton vs Obama race, and got way too personal.
I have had a great time with some/many of the posters on William’s wonderful site, but draw the line at SNIP: reference to previously snipped statements removed – PB
Shows how low it’s got.
Cheers, and all the best.
Jen.
Just Me
you ar a person of principal
you ar a person of principal
Yes, but no interest.
You need not have at all
Your words were all that were necessary from any person of principal
Does anybody know whether there is any sort of connection between consumer confidence levels and how people are likely to either poll or vote?
Diogenes
“It’s a bit like Rudd not boycotting the Beijing Olympics”
Rudd nor any US politcans threatened that at all In fact th US politcan only suggested to “plan” for boycotting opening ceremony only as a protest over Tibet IF my group of sin “James Ron and th Ronnettes” was tarnished by you putting it up on your alledeged medical quack practise , I’d expect my ‘friends’ of principal to boycott you , so I don’t like your philosophy , give it some contrainess thought
As for Rudd , he gave th Chinese his firm views on tibet as reported on AP very frankly with principal Hope he does same with Russia (re Georgia) and USA (re Iraq) no principal , no soul , thats difference from Rudd vs th rodent , and others
Question is, why is this continually presented in the Oz as a Brendan Nelson problem and not a Liberal problem?
It was a close shave, but even in the NT, which once was uncontested CLP terrain, Labor won again. When are we going to see write-ups for what is the real problem, the one that should be staring commentators in the face? That the Liberal Party is just too right-wing for the electorate.
Remember how Labor – which still had all 8 state and territory governments – was subjected to column after column about how it needed to change everything it believed in if it ever wanted to win federally again? There was a bit of that for the Libs after the election, but I don’t see much soul-searching by our over-represented right-wing commentators.
Dario (278),
You are right, but it goes further than that. Posters on the Andrew Bolt Forum often claim that the state Labor Government has done nothing, I respond with a list of specific facts; e.g., 5,193 extra teachers, funding primary schools to allow prep to year 2 classes to be capped at 21, $1.4 billion in capital expenditure on schools in the first two terms, proportional representation for the Legislative Council, etc. Then they respond by saying the Labor Government has done nothing. It’s a parallel universe.
With the Commonwealth Government, it is a little different because we haven’t even reached the first anniversary yet. But I guarantee that three years from now, with tax reform under way, a national curriculum in place, etc, etc, the same persons will still be telling the world that Labor has done nothing, I will be responding with new specific lists of what it has done and they will be responding to me by stating it has done nothing. The parallel universe lives!
It looks like my amigos are having good time and my horsey has bolted.
Diog, the problem with the West is that they think they have got the mortgage over the wisdom of how a nation should be run and behaved. It was never better said by Dubya: “You either with us or against us”.
Chris Curtis @ 318
The ‘labour has done nothing’ story is an interesting one, and the idea of a parallel universe is probably useful to contemplate. I suggest that the parallel universe is an experiential one deliberately set at a personal level. It has its own validity and is powerful.
‘Labour has done nothing,’ is useful because it is like a mantra and can be repeated endlessly and requires no conscious thought.
I suspect that it is not necessarily about reason or reasoning. Responding by listing things done may miss the point. The appropriate response would be cue into the experiences of those to whom the mantra is targetted. This can be difficult if people are experiencing increased petrol prices, increased grocery prices, increased credit prices and so on.
The mantra is also instantly accessible to anyone who on a personal level does not experience a changed impact from government actions. This is a corollary of the mantra: ‘What has labour ever done for you/me?’
The other powerful thing the mantra does is that it establishes a timeframe: “NOW”. This is useful for opponents of the Gubbies for two reasons. The first is that it links in a temporal sense anything currently unpleasant to the Gubbies and not to erstwhile folk. It also creates a sense of ‘Why not already?’ This is what I was sort of getting at when I commenting on the cleverness of ESJ’s ‘faux’ narrative. As soon as you engage you have lost ground on the issue of timing and accountability.
The mantra is also powerful because it simplifies things and lots of folk like things simplified. Complexity bewilders.
I suggest also that the mantra has emotional rather than rational power because plenty of people respond to it by offering lists of things done, despite plenty of evidence that providing lists of things does not stop the chanting.
If the above makes some sort of sense, then responding by providing lists of things done does a couple of things: (1) it shows that the provider of lists just does not get it; (2) it reinforces the power of the mantra in the mind of the chanter.
If so, the correct response to the mantra is for the Gubbies to ensure that punters have the sort of experiences they want.
Jen, if you happen to drift over to this thread for a read, I’m sorry that you have pulled the plug.
“THE Federal Government says FuelWatch is needed to end “effective collusion” by big oil, as independent senators vow to scuttle the scheme.”
This approach will carry a lot of weight in the electorate. It is up to the opponents now to prove this wrong.
Boerwar @ 320
Interesting comments. But I would not dismiss the power of evidence and reason so hastily. They often don’t persuade immediately (and for some, not at all), but persistent evidence based reasoning is hard for most to deny in the long run. For example, climate change.
Keeping a list of the substantial policy decisions Labor has implemented to hand for ready use in such debates is a very useful and effective tactic, as long as you do not expect instant or unambiguous results, or waves of political conversions. By forcing your opponents into irrational denial, you reduce their ability to persuade the less committed. Your main aim is not to change the minds of your hardcore opponents, that is a waste of resources, but to persuade the less committed and the borderline undecided. Why do you think political parties spend such disproportionate effort on the swinging voters?
It is a grossly inefficient use of time and energy trying to convert the Bolts, Ackermans, Devines, Shanahans, and Albrechtsens of this world, or their adoring flocks.
Perhaps positing a question like “Would Howard have done it differently?” would also highliught the things that have been done.
As soon as you can make them list the things that Howards wouldn’t have done, they are creating their own list. Now, hard-core right wing types will take this entire list as mistakes, but the more moderate types can then be asked
Are you glad we stopped locking up children?
Do you think Rudd was right to end Workchoices?
Since they themselves provided the list it’s harder then to argue Rudd is not doing anything.
William
Putting aside the US site fracas you referred to above, can I suggest that, if it is possible and you know a legal friend, that you protect your “Poll Bludger” name by whatever means affordable? I think you have achieved a level of balance and quality which is above the norm. We all respect your efforts to keep the site balanced, even when we are told to tone things down. The fact that there have already been several instances of journalists trolling through here for ideas shows that others recognise its value too.
Boerwar
I found this study from Portugal which says “no”, at least in Portugal. They say Rudd (being left-wing) would be punished for increasing unemployment more than inflation (the opposite being true for right-wing). For all governments, the past and present is more important than the future in evaluating their performance.
The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=359361
Boerwar,
You have given me food for thought. I am an excessively logical person, even though the evidence for illogical thinking everywhere hits me in the face. Mantras occur throughout political discourse as summaries that save the need for research and thought. I do not expect to convince the rusted on, but I expect that there are many readers of websites who never post and who are open to argument.
I am not able to cue the experience of those with whom I dispute because their experiences are not clear: all the reader gets is the repetition of the slogans.
The mantra-chanters will not stop, but the citizenry at large are not convinced and, if my assessment of the Commonwealth Government’s agenda is correct, the citizenry will not be misled by the mantras. Indeed, your mention of petrol and grocery prices is a good example of an issue that the government can do little about, and it deserves the heat it takes on this matter. My point is that bigger issues will decide the election, and they will work in Labor’s favour.
I will keep responding with facts, not always on lists, for they can work. I have been conducting a pretty vigorous defence of what Labor’s computer policy is, and it is now rare for people to claim falsely that Kevin Rudd promised to give everyone a laptop or that he promised to give every student a computer or that people who do not pay any tax because of their low income will not get the education tax refund. There are still those who claim that the promise has been broken; e.g., they state that the policy has suddenly become “access to”, when “access to” was mentioned in the media release before the election.
Just Me (323),
I agree with you. My aim is to convince the swingers, not the rusted-ons.
Rates Analyst (324),
Your point is valid, but references to John Howard would not be relevant on the issue I am dealing with.
Boerwar asks, “Does anybody know whether there is any sort of connection between consumer confidence levels and how people are likely to either poll or vote?”
Oooh.. pick me, pick me!
According to a few quick regressions of the newspoll data since November 1985 against consumer confidence data, a 10% increase in consumer confidence has, on average over the last 22.5 years of Newspoll, led to a 1.2% increase in the primary vote of the party in government, as well as a 1.5% decrease in the primary vote of the opposition.
They’re both statistically significant relationships.
Socrates
#325
Your literary proses , and as with that of your Ancestor Socrates , very well said and thoughtfully so , both in words and in underlying principal and spirit , compliment
#325 – [that you protect your “Poll Bludger” name by whatever means affordable? – the first thing you do is that you dont “lend” your brand to other site, period. Especially to an amateurish site that has an “Editor in Chief”. WTF, are talking about NYT, WSJ, The Times, AFR?
328
Possum Comitatus
Very interesting Poss. Do you have any peak periods where the confidence level rose appreciably yet the government pop vote remained steady or fell? If so it’d be interesting to see what the political issues were for that period.
Just Me @ 323 and Chris Curtis @ 327
Thank you. If reason didn’t come into it I wouldn’t be here!
I think there are probably different groups of people out there. Some of the folk would probably fit into my story quite handily. Others would fit into your story in the sense that they would be somewhat open to knowing what is really going on. For the latter folk it is useful to have lists of things done. I would probably agree with you that the former group are rusted on and the latter group might fit into swinging voters.
Reflecting on it some more, I believe the real question is whether mantras help establish the agenda and help set or reinforce parameters of the debate. If so, ‘Labour has done nothing,’ is a clever way of establishing an agenda, diverting effort and creating the bounds of the debate. An alternative is that mantras don’t do much more than act as a signal for the converted that: ‘Here is another tribe member!’ and the mantra acts as a mild reinforcer.
I would not discard the importance of connecting the story with what individuals experience.
Rates Analyst @ 324 That would be an interesting list to see.
Diogenes @ 326 thank you for that. It demonstrates that what I was thinking was wrong. Intuitively, I would have thought that there was a connection.
But then, I have just noticed Possum’s @ 328 and thank goodness for that.
FINNS
#319
“It looks like my amigos are having good time
Diog, the problem with the West is that they think they have got the mortgage over the wisdom of how a nation should be run and behaved.”
“good time” yes when telling th truth to petals who spread false informaton Naturaly you are unsupprised my very detailed #293 has not been challenged on accuracy by anyone , not even a single word
“mortgage over the wisdom” IF you ar a Palestinian whose lived in Gaza for 40 year in barbaric conditions , no food or water for your kids , no schooling for them , no future job oportinities for dems , you also wuld be inspired by George Bush’s and curent 2 shallow Pres. candidates principals condemning human rights abuses (but only usualy where there is oil wells)
I think human rights abuses involving mass deaths like Iraq (US) , Zimbarbe , Ruwanda (UN/US) , Georgia (Russia) ar much much worse by comparison in comparisons , than restricton of freedoms & fewer daths in Tibet , and yet th USA seem oblivous to th contradiction Believe Rudd will be equaly firm through diplonatic channels condemning all human rights abuses including first 4 above Double standards on principals and decency flourish everywhere in world , which is partly why dsound solutions don’t occur
Blocking Fuelwatch may actually benefit the government long-term.
Most Sandgropers think it’s great ands will be peeved that ‘their’ idea has been canned nationally which may get them onside, remembering that they were lukewarm about Labor in the election.
It can also be something to use to bring Xenephon down a peg or two in SA. IMHO, he’s been much over rated here. He had a few small victories, but if you look at the major issues he campaigned on he’s had little if any effect. Apparently, he really works at helping people at the individual level which accounts for much of the communities high opinion of him, but on the bigger picture he’s more show than substance.
Labor could do well to hint that he’s: the best friend the oil companies have ever had
As for the Labor’s done nothing. chant, it sure would help if they promoted their achievements more.
Yesterdays announcement of the proposed 34 $1 billion solar plants being an example. Why haven’t Rudd, Wong and Garrett been all over the media like a rash crowing about this being the first fruits of the government’s ETS, and making a big deal about it proves that tackling CC is not all doom and gloom. That it can be very good for business and jobs, too. And how it could be bigger than Labor’s previous great energy initiative, the Snowy Mountains Scheme.
BTW-this is no idle comparison. The Snowy cost around $800 million spread over 25 years (1949-74). Not sure what that is in today’s money, but I’m guessing it’s less than $34 billion.
Reflecting on it some more, I believe the real question is whether mantras help establish the agenda and help set or reinforce parameters of the debate. If so, ‘Labour has done nothing,’ is a clever way of establishing an agenda, diverting effort and creating the bounds of the debate. An alternative is that mantras don’t do much more than act as a signal for the converted that: ‘Here is another tribe member!’ and the mantra acts as a mild reinforcer.
I am inclined to the alternative interpretation, at least for the longer term. I do agree that in the short term mantras and slogans can sway some people for long enough to significantly influence their immediate choices, but this tactic remains largely a self-justifying and self-reinforcing rhetorical behaviour.
After a while it becomes easy to produce an unarguable list of substantial policy decisions to rebut the claim. Even if they do not agree with those policies, most will acknowledge that they were implemented (or at least their implementation was genuinely attempted, but foiled by the dastardly opposition/independent senators, oooooo, boogyman!).
Poss 328
Very interesting. I don’t claim to have done any detailed regression statistics but I looked at the relationship between Real Average Wages and election results back in the mid-1990s. If my calculations were correct there were only four occaisions since 1910 when the government wasn’t reelected if that statistic was going up, or defeated if it was going down. Trouble was, ABS stopped collating the data after 1978 (from memory) with the shift to productivity based wage increases. My estimated reconstruction was the basis for the conclusions after then.
fieldmouse and mr x have just ensured they are seen as out of touch and more in tune with big busines
joe and josephine average are going to pretty pissed me thinks
maybe they are angling for leadership of the fibs????
Steve K, the consumer confidence index has over 25 periods where it’s moved dramatically (over 10% within 2 months) going back to 1985.
It’s a series with enormous amounts of monthly variation in it.
Socrates – that’s interesting – fits into that whole “good times make for easy government” thing that tends to happen a fair bit.
Ron 329
Thanks I don’t pretend to be as wise as Socrates, so I’ll just be happy if I can know what I don’t know
Mayo Feral @ 334
We should not forget what a free ride Howard/Costello had from gouging the public purse for what was often close to party political PR. Squillions.
The Gubbies’ climate change ads should be sending shivers up the spines of Nelson, Turnbull, Tip & Co. Well, OK, in the absence of spines, it should be sending shivers up their something or others.
Mayo 334
I agree with your comments about Labor mentioning its successes. I mention again one I said the other day – Labor appears to have now changed the transport funding rules so that federal funds can be used to examine public transprot as a solution to urban congestion. I say “appears” because I have seen no policy announcement. Yet this is a major step forward over the previous government, on both environmental and economic efficiency grounds.
Just me @ 335
The question might be: ‘Are the two are necessarily mutually exclusive?’ If not, the trick to being an effective communicator/debater/disputer/persuader might be to know which bit of the terrain you are travelling through.
gusface
Fielding, of note is that libs recently defected to Family First in SA and WA claiming that the Liberal Party was not “conservative” enough anymore. Is Fielding seeking to take FF to the right of the Liberals. May be a dangerous move, from what I recall more FF preferences went to labor than to liberal. Fielding may not worry about losing left supporters if he believes he can pick up a net gain by moving further to the right.
Mr X, is a string anti-poker machines campaigner which got him elected. Of the many things they ask for is more info for gamblers, eg time spent money spent etc. Be strange for him to deny information to consumers for petrol.
gusface
Fielding, of note is that libs recently defected to Family First in SA and WA claiming that the Liberal Party was not “conservative” enough anymore. Is Fielding seeking to take FF to the right of the Liberals. May be a dangerous move, from what I recall more FF preferences went to labor than to liberal. Fielding may not worry about losing left supporters if he believes he can pick up a net gain by moving further to the right.
Mr X, is a string anti-poker machines campaigner which got him elected. Of the many things they ask for is more info for gamblers, eg time spent money spent etc. Be strange for him to deny information to consumers for petrol.
Considering Justme 335s comment, I think the “Labor has done nothing” line illustrates just how desperate the Liberals and their paid media cronies have become. First its false – there have been a lot of policy changes, that will take some time to bear fruit, but the direction has changed.
Second though, it shows that the Libs don’t actually want to have a policy debate – they just want to go back to soundbites. Maybe because they don’t actually have any internal concensus on what their own policies should be?
Rod
I would observe from my time in Adelaide so far that Xenophon is a sharp politician, quick on the populist gimmick. He does care about a few issues, but after that, will go what he sees as the popular route. Hence his stand on Fuelwatch doesn’t mean a lot IMO.
Fielding on the other hand IS more conservative than the Liberals. It isn’t a change, thats his true form – economically conservative and socially very conservative. Anyone who understands how FF came about and who is behind them will know why. “Fundys First” is their real name IMO.
I must admit I had hopes that Xenophon would be a voice of reason in the Senate and wouldn’t be blocking bills unless it was necessary and guided by some high principal.
It is simply weird his coming out against a minor measure like Fuel Watch which probably at worst will be neutral in effect but at least gives people the opportunity to look and choose and, it may well have some benefit. And he has not yet sat a single day in the Senate.
Going off half-cocked like that smacks of grandstanding, raising his profile, trying to make himself seem important to the folks back home in SA. Or is it just inexperience and being persuaded by the first person who got into his ear. It seems a bit more like a gimmick than sensible decision.
In any case it is a bad start for him when he really needed to build some credibility beyond poker-machines and gimmicks. I dare say his popularity can as easily disappear as it appeared if he seems to be acting as a blocker of the government.
It also raises the question of the responsibility lone Senators have and especially if they can exercise a balance of power.
My antennas hav been
Go to war or claim there’s an enemy on horizon , Government popularity goes up
Perceive to cause a resession , popularity goes down usualy bye to Government
Make people ‘happy’ , good times , confident to spend , popularity goes up
Do not sell a message , someone else will , and maybe not to your liking
Be naughty and get away with it , and who cares about popularity
Why single out Xenophon? The Greens, Family First, Xenophon and the Coalition all don’t support FuelWatch.
Possum et al
Is the consumer confidence level worked out on how people perceive they are currently travelling or on how they think they’ll be in 12 months? I’ve also seen one for 5 years in the future.
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