The Fairfax broadsheets today bring the latest ACNielsen poll of federal voting intention, showing Labor’s lead up to 55-45 compared with 54-46 last month. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 43 per cent with the Coalition down one point to 39 per cent. The poll also finds Peter Costello to be favoured as Liberal leader by 56 per cent of the 1400 respondents compared with 27 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 17 per cent for Brendan Nelson. In head-to-head terms, Costello leads Turnbull 49-35 and Turnbull leads Nelson 47-31. Worst of all for Nelson, his approval rating is down from 36 per cent to 31 per cent and his disapproval is up from 46 per cent to 53 per cent. Hat tip to poll watcher extraordinaire James J.
UPDATE: The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows Labor maintaining its lead of 58-42. Also featured are questions on pensions, industrial relations and Australia’s performance at the Olympics.
315 Comments
I wonder if the WA Libs will still invite Brendon to campaign here in light of this poll, or will they invite Costello ? Nelson is to the WA Libs this election, what Latham was to the WA ALP in the 2005 State Election - poison
I’ll be more imppressed with a poll that pits Cossie up against Rudd. This 15% of Labor voters are more inclined or less inclined stuff really tells us nothing. Show us how Cossie would affect the voting intentions.
agree
Interesting despite costello’s high plus figures vs Turnbull overall , buried in Poll is amongst Labor suporters (55%) Costello vs Turnbull is line ball 42% to 41% , suggesting a change of Leadership either way may not improve Liberal’s poll standings , OR if so it will be by same rate
I wonder if Nielsen have changed anything since the election when they appeared to be a little higher than the rest.
Hmmm…
Where have all the ‘one term’ stories gone?
Peter J Nicol… they’ll be back. It’s just that the media much prefer leadership stories over any other story when it comes to politics. The uglier the fight the better. This is certainly doing Mr Costello’s book sale prospects no harm.
On the Insider show yesterday Barry Cassidy said that if Costello was leader that he would be able to take it up to Rudd policy wise at least, unlike Nelson.
Where do the these commentators get these weird ideas from?
Bushfire Bill @ 7 -
Who’d buy it? the juicy bits will be summarised in the Fairfax papers anyway.
I predict in the bin, out the front with the Da Vinci Code guff and Dog Whisperer paraphenalia within three weeks.
Agreed. I’ve heard the first print run is 50,000. Don’t know how many trees that is, but I fear a lot of them will have died for nothing.
As for the “juicy bits,” my betting is that he’ll chicken out on most of the really damning stuff. Seems to me that he’d come out of it as dirty as Howard, given that for 12 years he did whatever Rodent wanted even when, supposedly, he was against it. Flushing the huge surpluses down the Treasury toilet, for example, with bugger all to show for it.
Still, they could always sell it as a cure for insomnia!
Muskiemp at #8 wrote:
Cassidy would say that (he’s got a grudge against Rudd, doesn’t he?), but others would differ …
The only “policies” I have heard come from Slack Pete involve a Third World IR agenda: Pay cuts for workers, slave wages for apprentices, abolishing of protection from Unfair Dismissal for every employee.
Meanwhile, Mr SmirkChoices himself appears not to be the hardest worker around; in fact is deplored by colleagues for laziness …
Hahaha so the Libs are feeling renewed because a poll puts Cossie above Nelson for the opp leader’s job??? My aunt’s right elbow would be more popular than Mr 12%! Desperate times, despereate measures I guess.
At the last election the Australian people had the opportunity to embrace Costello as Prime Minister because Howard had implicitly agreed in principle to hand over if the Coalition were victorious. They chose not to accept the invitation.
I cannot see anything that has happened in the last 10 months that has changed peoples minds to a great degree. The polls are saying that the present time the intention of the electorate is to maintain the status quo.
This is not to say that people agree with everything being done by PM Rudd and his government, but they are not seen as incompetent.
Wow there’s a lot violent agreement this morning isnt there? Where’s Gary Bruce for a different perspective?
That’s a bit strong.
Things have definitely changed for the worse economically. I’m not blaming the Rudd government for that, quite the contrary, but things have changed.
If you read the chicken entrails and pay attention to the economic news I suppose it could be said that the evidence was there for a downturn, coincidentally in the post-election period. But not many do that, or if they do, can understand it. In my experience, people woudl rather believe things will tootle along as they were forever. It’s a human trait.
I think a big thng in the voters’ minds helping Rudd’s election was that the economy would sail along as it had before, but that a few loose ends would be tied up in the moral government stakes by a more compassionate Labor.
The Libs were deathly afraid of this thought process, hence Costello’s attempt at trying to talk up the sub-prime crisis (in the process trying not to talk down the economy), all tied up with his “Ferrari mechanic” fable. But when sub-prime seemed to fizzle out a bit (before it really hit in the second round) the electorate wrote off Cozzie’s talk as scare-mongering. I wouldn’t be surprised if they actually marked him down for it.
It didn’t help that negativity on the economy just before an election would be looked upon as a political mistake. Howard probably told Cozzie to stop the “black cloud” talk and get on the up-beat again. Neither party really got into disaster scenarios, or if they did, they only dipped their toes in the water rather than take the full baptism.
I think Howard was delaying and delaying the election hoping for bad economic news. when it didn’t quite come in time, the game was up and he had to go. This was a lucky break for Rudd, in no uncertain terms. If the election had ben scheduled for just a few months later, I’m not so sure Rudd would have won, what with banks imploding and interest rates rising. Even so the interest rates and inflation would have been Howard’s fault, the public would have remembered how we dodged a bullet during Asian Meltdown and, on balance, returned the Libs, in my opinion.
Now that Labor are in government, I think people will stick with Labor for at least a couple of elections, simply because Labor have done a good job of cutting off the Libs at the ankles. They saw off Howard and many of the old hands, and I don’t think Cozzie will hang around… too much like hard work. I think Cozzie would have known back in September that if sub-prime hit hard there was nothing he could do about it either.
Now that the decision has been made it’ll stick. I’d bet Costello knows there’s nothing he can do and that the people wouldn’t put up with him - a “Treasurer” totally out of power - for very long, without serious rumblings. I think the voters realise there are no quick fixes for the economic troubles we’re in. Although they’re not disastrous, they’re serious enough and will have to be rectified by the slow-and-steady method rather than cheap shots like petrol excise cuts.
At the moment Labor are the only ones doing policy development (as opposed to stupid sniping and sloganeering, hankering for the good old days) and the public will remember that come next election.
The other point is that a downturn in the first year of a term coudl be well and truly forgotten by year 3… and it’s year three that the next elelction happens!
ESJ
I’m going to disagree. If the Libs can manage 55-45 with a hopelessly unpopular leader, moving to another leader can only improove their situation. Neither Cossie nor Turnbull rate anywhere as badly. I know lots of Lib-leaning swinging voters who won’t vote for the Libs under Nelson coz they reckon he is a joke. They might vote for Cossie and they would really give Turnbull a good look at.
I think the Libs would still lose under Smirk 53-47 or something like that. If Turnbull could get the Libs to support him with a bit of discipline with no divisions (unlikely) it could be even closer.
Bushfire Bill @ 14 :
See what you mean.
Perhaps we could unify our theories by proposing that things have changed for the worse, but the change came too late to save the Liberal Party’s arse?
Am I the only person who thinks this is in bad taste? How can you name a swim centre after someone who drowned?
Stephanie Rice recently visited the Harold Holt Swim Centre.
The sting in the Nielsen poll is in voter intentions. Cossie is popular with the Lib voters who are just desperate for some good news but he is a turn off for the non coalition voters who parked their vote with Ruddy last year. No sign of them moving it out of the garage if the Cossie gets the nod. I just can’t see Cossie reinventing himself as a firm tough leader. The baggage is too much . He’s a political gunner. He was gunner do lots of things if only he had had the ticker to chuck Howard out. He’s a dilettante with no passion for the job.
hHe doesn’ deserve it and we don’t deserve him.
And Diogenes, I think I spotted Harold Holt at the opening of the Beijing Olympics in the official party. So I don’t think Steph was doing anything in bad taste.
13 Edward - You have an opportunity to state your own views and all you want is my view. Says it all really. Aren’t you late for school?
Oh, by the way Edward I put my view earlier (see #2).
Alan
Judging by the way they swam, I think that our men’s swim team might have spend a bit too much time at the Harold Holt Swim Centre.
Peter Hartcher has an interesting view on this poll.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/peter-hartcher/2008/08/17/1218911460359.html
Nelson’s ratings are in free fall because he is being undermined, not because his performance is any worse. I expect most of the change in his ’support’ are Liberals who just want him gone, rather than Labor or swinging voters who want a ‘contest’. These figures therefore reveal nothing and people can hypothesise about Costello for however long he keeps playing this silly silent game.
I think the Harold Holt swim centre is a great example of the wry Australian sense of humour
That’s highly debatable, on several fronts
Dario
Apart from the double O in improove, how do you disagree with the Libs getting a “bounce” by chucking Brenda?
28 Diogenes - If I may step in here, just read the Harcher article (link above at 24). Stirton expresses this doubt.
GB
That article says that the Libs would improve under Tip but not by enough to win, which is basically what I said.
Yes, as GB & Diogenes said, from the article:
“But even so, the poll does not suggest that a Costello leadership would be enough to put the Coalition ahead. ‘Superficially it looks good for Peter Costello,’ Stirton observes, ‘but when you look at where his support comes from, it’s mainly Liberal voters.’
But to win an election, the Coalition needs to win over people currently supporting Labor. Asked whether a Costello leadership would make them more or less likely to vote for the Coalition, 15 per cent said more likely but 24 per cent said less. ‘Costello is a net negative among Labor voters,’ Stirton points out.”
The other large problem with Costello is that he has a hell of a lot of baggage, i.e. WC. While the Libs might be dumb enough to believe that the voters have forgotten the last election already, you can bet the voters haven’t. Nelson & Turnbull don’t have that burden around their necks (although they have others), and you can bet Labor will remind everyone come election time about the policy formerly known as WorkChoices. It will be an equivalent to Labor’s ‘economy & interest rates’ burden that took them 12 years to get over.
Diogenes
#30
“GB
That article says that the Libs would improve under Tip but not by enough to win, which is basically what I said.”
No it doesn’t Actualy Poll says alot of conflictimg things but not that
1/ It puts Costello MINUS 9% (15% more and 24% less likely) thats not imptovement , 2/ then it gives Mr Smirka big surplus over Nelson/Turnbull amongst Liberal supporters (well thats useless trying to win over some of 55%) , and 3/ then it rates Mr Smirk & Turnful equal amongst labor suporters (which means they will equaly bring Liberal vote down or up)
All up , alot of timber mixed with fluff saying little , except for one thing Sir Kevin has a great 10% lead tgats been consisitent all year
30 Diogenes - to me Stirton actually questions whether the Libs would gain by Costello’s leadership.
“But to win an election, the Coalition needs to win over people currently supporting Labor. Asked whether a Costello leadership would make them more or less likely to vote for the Coalition, 15 per cent said more likely but 24 per cent said less. ‘Costello is a net negative among Labor voters,’ Stirton points out.”
How do you have a net loss from those voters you need to pick up, ie those who say they would vote Labor, and gain? You’ve already got those saying they will vote Liberal.
It all depends on who those Labor voters who had strong feelings about Cossie were. If the 24% who were less likely to vote Lib with Cossie were never going to vote Lib anyway, they are pretty irrelevant (I would be one of those). If the 15% who were more likely to vote for Lib under Cossie are the genuine “swinging voters”, the Libs would get a net win under Tip.
We really need a direct Rudd v Tip poll.
If I’m correct, it boils down to this …
The Coalition lost votes to Labor, and the Coalition needs them back.
Assuming thy lost the votes because of WorkChoices (biggest vote-changer), I doubt Costello can entice them back, given he is even more radical on IR than Howard was prepared to go.
Especially, as Dario said (#31), if Labor runs a Costello-IR scare campaign, I see Costello as a net vote-loser for the Coalition.
The fact that he (now) seems preferred by Coalition voters as leader is neither here nor there really. The rusted-ons are always going to vote Liberal, no matter who the leader.
Sorry this is off topic folks, but I thought you might be amused. Last night I was watching the Olympic boxing on SBS. Before an ad break the anchorman, Les Murray, mentioned that Australia’s last Olympic boxing medalist was Grahame Cheney (who won silver as a light welterweight in Seoul, 1988). By way of explaining that Grahame was not related to Dick Cheney, he mentioned that our medal-winning champ was “not as punch drunk as Dick.”
(I didn’t know punch drunkness was genetic, but that’s probably just a reflection of my pugilistic ignorance.)
34 Diogenes - “We really need a direct Rudd v Tip poll.”
Agree entirely. We could debate this poll all day and get nowhere. Too many factors missing. As I said back at #2 a comaparison with Rudd and Labor is needed. I suspect this won’t happen unless Cossie commits to the cause.
Maybe they named the swim centre after the guy who was kidnapped by the Russians?
That’s not in bad tase. The guy’s a hero. Being interrogated and tortured all these years…
Our friends at the Facebook site “I support Drafting Peter Costello” are pretty excited by the Nielsen poll.
I don’t even think it was one of the bludgers (whose comments on that site seem to have been expunged).
Diogenes @ 19
I think naming anything after Harold Holt was in bad taste.
On reflection, I may have been a bit harsh on Bush and Condi about Georgia.
1. I will stick to the view that they didn’t control their client properly.
2. The US capacity to act was fatally weakened once they over-reached militarily in Iraq and Afghanistan. This was made plain when the US military went public against a strike on Iran.
3. The NATO allies have cold feet. They are mostly Elois. Having suffered more than their share of the bulk of the 20thC casualties, and in some cases being more or less completely reliant on Russian energy, they have no stomach for bear baiting. The German economy would be trashed within days.
Bottom line, short of going straight to the NUKE option, Bush and Condi do not have the conventional chips on the table to deal.
I wonder what Costello would have named after him. The top of an iceberg maybe?
I don’t know what all the chatter in the media is all about. Costello was and intuitively was always going to be the preferred leader. Even Howard handing him the broken chalice was recognition that the job was his and that he would be the most acceptable alternative.
The Howard government really consisted of the two names, Howard and Costello, both incessantly iconised by the media. Costello’s profile would have given him some ready made authority and acceptability with the electorate. There would be no question on if he could run the country - he was already part of that for a decade.
So the media making games with the idea Costello is more popular than someone else is not news. The real news considering the advantage Costello has had is that Turnbull is not that far away.
But in any case this is all about who would be the most popular person to run the Titanic as it lay at the bottom of the ocean.
Gary Bruce Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
I wonder what Costello would have named after him. The top of an iceberg maybe?
Or a hammock
If anyone wants to know the abilities of Costello I can only refer them to his debate with Swan in the run up to the election. This was meant to be the event that showed up Swan and revealed the smart, glossy talented Costello in full flow.
Given that Costello had been Treasurer for a decade, had the benefit of Treasury advices and coaching you would think he would have made easy work of the nervous Mr Swan. But Costello was mundane, uninspiring, dull and did no better than Swan - the debate being pretty much a draw though the worm I believe gave it to Swan.
Or a hammock on top of an iceberg!
OK, here’s a trick question: What is the difference between Putin and Costello?
Offtopic message:
Gary Bruce:
Can you please see post 213 on the WA thread ?
William,
Can it be possible to configure wordpress to send people private messages so we don’t clog up the threads with offtopic stuff ?
William,
Latest ERMS Survey now out in Tasmania.
{PUBLIC support for Premier David Bartlett has fallen from 46 per cent to 40 per cent in the wake of the latest twin crises to beset the Tasmanian Government.
The latest EMRS political survey of 1000 Tasmanian voters taken last week had support for the Labor government and the Liberal Opposition tied at 30 per cent of the vote each.
But more Tasmanians still want Mr Bartlett as their Premier than Liberal Opposition leader Will Hodgman, who was preferred by one-third (33%) of voters.}
http://www.news.com.au/mercury/story/0,22884,24199130-3462,00.html
Is it possible that with Costello at the opposition helm, opposition tension between Costello and Turbull will continue to destabilise the Libs?
Having read that ERMS article Scorpio I still don’t know what the voting intentions are. Do you know?
With the Hare-Clark system of voting how can anyone know
Gary,
It’s a bit vague isn’t it. I suppose the proportional voting system there makes it difficult to get any sort of accurate 2 PP intention and translate that to potential seats.
“But more Tasmanians still want Mr Bartlett as their Premier than Liberal Opposition leader Will Hodgman, who was preferred by one-third (33%) of voters.”
So do we assume Bartlett was preferrd by 66%? That’s one massive lead if that is the case.
Given Liberals have to win some of Labors 55% support , this Poll specificaly polled Labor voters finding Turnbull and Costello rated equally (subject to MOE)
We already know from recent Polls of Rudd vs Turnbull that Rudd wins easily , so indirectley we already know Rudd vs Costello that Rudd will win easily (as of now)
Somehow Diogenes created polling history by turning a Poll of of Labor suporters showing 15% more likely to vote FOR Cossie VS 24% more unlikely to vote AGAINST (being a net 9% deficiency against Cossie) into a plus…by saying th 15% may be rusted on and 24% may be all swinging , therefore Cossie has a surplus Perhaps that may qualiy for an ‘oz’ role
An argument against is Labors 2PP has gone up by 2.3% since electon , and EVEN assuming they were all swingers , 24% of 2.3% as a plus to Libs with tip in control gives Tip 0.6% plus (54.4% to 45.6%) Thats th best for Tip with Shanahan logic
However rreality is of course one can only go as far as my 2nd par at max. with these polls What we do know is Shanahan , Bolt etc know Labor’s polling this year , with 3% MOE , has consitently showed an average of around 10% lead by all Polsters , meaning ANY Liberal opposition leader whoever , could not posibly diminish such a huge Labor lead significantly for th present time
Make that 67%.
Rx @ 35 -
Assuming thy lost the votes because of WorkChoices (biggest vote-changer), I doubt Costello can entice them back, given he is even more radical on IR than Howard was prepared to go.
Add to this that the only thing the punters have heard from Costello all year, apart from the Garbo-esque “I wunt to be left alone,” was his fulsome support for Nelson’s hard line ETS policy (version #3,728, from memory) which not even the shadow cabinet thought was a passably good idea.
Cossie has far to much baggage that Labor could exploit, but IMHO, the factor above all others that would ensure he’ll never got his bum on the Prime Ministerial chair is that Aussies don’t like petulant dummy-spitters and there are few bigger than him.
Ronster
As has been pointed out earlier, I AM Dennis Shanahan. That medical stuff is just a front.
Let’s wait for a poll of Rudd v Costello compared to a poll of Rudd v Nelson. If the Cossie poll is closer than the Brenda poll, I win (along with my little mates Milne and Bolt).
If there is no difference between the Rudd v Nelson and Rudd v Cossie (or if Brenda fares better than Cossie) then you win.
Costello will quit before Xmas. He’s just cockteasing everybody to boost interest in his book. This is an MUP marketting trick. If he was intending to stay he wouldn’t be publishing his memoirs, which will be a gift to Rudd. “Oh that mine enemy would write a book.” Job
Typical Shanhan , make up th rules in darkness awaiting print deadlines, then add some plain old fashioned Shana’s ’spin’ , and for desert then add his own unique variety of multi colored Tip ’spin’ to articles
What i said is Rudd presently will beat any Liberal easily , and that Labor voters per ACR Poll regard Turnbuyll & Cossie equally , meaning they’ll equally add to Libs vote (more likely, but not by much) , or both equaly will lower Libs vote) No amount of your Tippy toe ’spin’ changes your mangling of Poll figures of Cossies 9% deficient Mr S as spin for Cossie , nor my conclusion Kevin07 has consistenlty held 10% lead this year that no Libeal leader coud posibly hav alltered dramaticaly
People talk of 55% 2pp as if it’s “just” 55%. Does anyone remember polling during the Howard years? It was always 50-50 or a couple either way. Then the incumbent gains a few % during the election campaign. With Rudd/ALP’s polling, the coalition is in opposition for the next 20 years.
I came across this article earlier and found it most interesting. I wonder why it didn’t get a wider exposure at the time. I apologise for it being off topic but I am sure people who missed it would enjoy a read.
{But Howard’s father had another life. While this old soldier worked his humble Sydney service station, he was also - on paper - a New Guinea planter with a string of estates where 200 native labourers grew copra in his name. Lyall Howard had cashed in his status as a returned digger to “dummy” for the trading house W. R. Carpenter and Company Ltd. His own father, Walter, was doing it, too. The Howard case provoked secret, official investigations at the highest levels in Canberra, but they and their powerful backer got away with the scam.}
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/the-secret-howard-plantations/2006/06/10/1149815326249.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Despite what this poll says it is members of the Parliamentary Liberal Party that decide the leader. The Fibs don’t do factions very well but they do have them.
Brenda has to bite the bullet soon, he is the leader. Costello is playing silly buggers. He should say to Tip, put up or shut up.
All he has to do is call on all members to say they will stand at the next election and require this in writing by 1st Sept. If a member fails to give this undertaking they lose preselection.
Time to call the Tip factions bluff.
Two things.
I thing that swimming pool was named after the former Prime Minister because he liked swimming which is also probably not unrelated to his drowning so it is not so strange.
The article on the Tasmanian poll is the first mention I remember seeing of a Greens leader as a prefered head of government.
Why wouldn’t Nelson call a leadership spill as a circuit breaker? He might lose it but he’s going to be white-anted until he is forced to quit as the polls are not going to stop if he doesn’t do anything. It would force Tip’s hand and flush out Turnbull.
Tom imagine if those gutless opinion poll takers put Bob Brown on as preferred PM
That would be the end of 2PP house of cards
Judge.
To be PM you have to have the confidence of the House of Representatives. How many Greens are there in the “House”?
Tom
#64
“a Greens leader as a prefered head of government.’
Article says McKim greens at 12% prefered , Liberal Hodgeman at 33% , and quote ‘Barlett more than Hodgeman’ ( assume Barlett 55% less undecided) so Greens still 3rd in prefferred
Not a very clearly written article anyway , and they can not add up
Labor 30% Libs 30% Greens 16% Undecided 25% (guess extra 1% is Tassie devils )
Undesided at 25% , is alot of voters not sure (made more difficult by there voting system)
The Mayo by-election is off the radar screen in South Australia. The media did cover the Liberal pre-selection and Bob Day’s subsequent conversion from Liberal to Family First was covered by the Sunday Mail and at least ABC radio (but not I think The Advertiser).
Candidates were announced last Friday and the Tiser ran only a small item, naming seven of the eleven but not “four independents”. It designated Mary Brewerton, Labor’s candidate at the general election, as “ALP” even though she is standing an an independent since the ALP is eschewing the by-election. The Australian today called her “ex-Labor” but that’s probably wrong too; I don’t think she’s resigned from the party and she won’t be expelled because she won’t be standing against a Labor candidate.
With only two and a half weeks to go, let’s hope the Mount Barker Courier and other non-metropolitan media outlets are giving all candidates a bit more of a platform than we see or hear about in the city.
making Barlett at 40% preference and undesided at 15%
ruawake, what are you afraid of? peoples opinion?
If you want to get technical voters don’t have any say in who the is PM.
so why do polls consistently survey preferred PM?
judge
The PM is the leader of the party that has the most seats in the HoR, fact. The Greens have ZERO members in the HoR, fact.
Hence it is irrelevent to put Bob Brown in the preferred PM poll.
FACT.
:-P
69 The Mayo by-election is off the radar screen in South Australia.
Probably hoping nobody will show up just like they kept Mum in the Brisbane City Council elections and the NT. Democracy always does better with a high turnout and plenty of controversy.
ruawake, opinion polls ask all sorts of questions,
obviously you are afraid to know what people might think about Bob Brown as PM.
I think that’s a fact.
the judge
#66
“Tom imagine if those gutless opinion poll takers put Bob Brown on as preferred PM That would be the end of 2PP house of cards ”
2PP house of cards ? Greens were actualy given there opportunity on 24th November 2007 with reel 2PP voting , and voters gave them just 7% odd
Voters hav voted with there ACTUAL votes dismissing Greens as government material , let alone PM material
Your Greens comment defies politcal logic
Well how about Warnie for PM? Let’s get serious please…
judge
I am not afraid of anything.
Lets get real, Bob Brown would score less than Brenda as preferred PM. Take your proportional representation glasses off for a second.
Plus, Bob Brown is in his last term as a Senator.
What was the number of votes required to become an elected Tasmanian Senator? Tee Hee.
Diogenes @ 65
1. Nelson would not call a leadership spill because that would be the end.
2. Nelson and Tiptoe have had a private meeting which lasted longer than an hour. No staffers, no anybody. No-one knows what was agreed.
3. There are rumours that Nelson has looked considerably more relaxed since the meeting.
Latest Essential Research survey still has Labor 58-42 ahead:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/EssentialReport_180808.pdf
Must be a misprint William. Surely the impending annointment of Cossie as the new messiah should have the voters flocking to the Libs by now!
the judge,
As always you are putting lipstick on a pig.
#19, Diog - [Stephanie Rice recently visited the Harold Holt Swim Centre] - Why not?
Since we are very good at sports where there is water involved: Swimming, Rowing, Canoeing, Sailing, Triathlon.
So we should agitate to be included in the Olympics new water related sports like: walking on water; drowning; waterboarding and chinese water torture, not to mention binge drinking.
Stop the Games. We are ahead of the Poms (for now)
One question for the Labor party cheer squad.
Which party’s preferences decided the outcome of the Bennelong and I think 8 other electorates.
One word answer is all that’s required.
How relevant is that? ha ha ha
enough said
Hint its a color
It shouldn’t be surprising that Labor’s lead has increased since the election. There would have been a number of voters who in that last week deciding to stay with the Howard government because of anxiety about changing from something they knew and for so long.
Now the ice has been broken, Howard’s gone, Rudd’s in and running and the remainder of the LNP collapsed into school-boy antics. The waivering voter has now become the converted. The Howard ‘myth’ departed and what lay underneath was nothing.
When it comes to the next election will there be a narrowing toward the government? Afraid to change to a party that has trouble with continuity and, so far doesn’t seem to stand for anything except opposing the govt.
The LNP would then need to be close to 50/50 coming to the next election to allow for that ‘narrowing’ toward the govt should it occur. One wonders if 55/45 might become 57/45 come election time if no inroads have been made by the murdoch media.
the judge,
Thanks for all the fish.
judge
We have a preferential voting system, the fact is preferences flowed to Labor, and these were votes cast by the electorate, are you saying that the Greens would have voted for the Conservatives?
Get over it. The Greens are a minority party. When they win seats in the house that matters they can play with the Big Boys.
Until then they can play silly buggers in the Unrepresentative Swill Chamber.
It’s getting hard to boycott the Limpix when we keep winning stuff.
Adam,
It is very unkind of you to call the Libs Limprix.
But Adam is an expert in such matters
The Widening, according to Essential Research; The Flattening, according to Neilson. As AiC says, hard to boycott federal politics when we keep winning stuff. Seriously, looks like those being polled are saying pretty clearly, nup, we made up our minds last November, and unless the LNP can come up with something better than what’s currently on offer, which we think is not much really, we’re not at all interested. Tip’s the best bet? Why would you vote for a lazy, narcissistic, rude person? Dunno, myself.
If the Greens won the federal seat of Melbourne (which has a 4.71% margin on a Labor/Green bassis)(or any other HoR seat but Melbourne is most likely) then they would have a candidate for prefered prime minister.
The same goes at the state state level on the mainland (for prefered premier) with the relevent seat(s).
“Until then they can play silly buggers in the Unrepresentative Swill Chamber”
I must say in defense of Greens Party & its overall suporters , that there ar rwo factions in Greens Party
th first Greens faction is th sensible environmentalists faction (& now CC as well) who wish to constructively influence public and Labor policy who generally happily support a ‘left’ Labor policy Agenda Happy to debate with them Second Greens faction is a looney dogma driven fringe with delusions they ar actualy mainstream now but somehow Greens Party ar ‘cheated’ for representation by Labor and Liberal Partys , that Greens Party will be Government , and generaly ar anti Labor with strange chip on shoulder , talk th most & with most outragous statements here , and embarrass there sensible environmentalists faction & its factional Leader Bob Brown Second group mainly reside in Gilligans
Labor has not been immune in past from such an embarassing lunatic faction either , a small rump of which remains today but whose influence today fortunateley is negligible , but this fringe lunatic group were on show in th 2007 electon with WA union guy & Vic electical trades union guy
HSO
Mike Rann
George W Bush
Jeff Kennett
etc
Disunity is death. Death before dishonour.
Nats MP breaks ranks over Pacific worker scheme
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/18/2339240.htm?section=justin
Ahhh…. it’s just beautiful
Harry
#91
“Tip’s the best bet? Why would you vote for a lazy, narcissistic, rude person”
Is that your selection Harry for Tip’s new book title
William Bowe
#79
August 18th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
“Latest Essential Research survey still has Labor 58-42 ahead”
Haven’t keep track of this pollster’s history , however this poll seems to biased for Labor Whilst Labor’s primary vote is 45% (which one would think is upper levels), it shows Liberals at only 35% which seems far to low , and excess has gone to Greens 10% FF 4% and others 6% , and feel these later three Groups may hav bits of actual Liberal primary votes in there via MOE
the judge thinks Bod Brown should be pm.
I have a lot of time for bob brown, he is in my view principled even if I don’t like some of his views. But as prime minster, no way.
Charles
#99
I agree Charles with your entire post completely
Sorry, Ron, but 35% for the Libs ISN’T far too low.
I have faith they can go even lower…
charles + ron,
Didnt Bob Brown come out a couple of months ago and say someone attempted to bribe him over cross media ownership changes years ago.
MY question is if your suggestion as to principles true - why wasnt this matter reported to the police? Do you know?
“101
zoom Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Sorry, Ron, but 35% for the Libs ISN’T far too low.
I have faith they can go even lower… ”
so do I brother, so do I
Keep digging Eddy…don’t you think the dirt machines of the Major Parties would have had a good sniff around already.
Try another one.
You can do better than that.
On second thoughts, maybe you can’t.
ESJ,
The “Greens” fish are on the bite again. What bait do you use?
Diogenes @ 94. I’ve not followed S.A. at all really, so would not have a clue about whether or not, Rann is an egotistical number. I suppose all pollies have to have a robust ego, or you wouldn’t survive. Cojones, on the other hand, Costello don’t have. And there is a difference between being egotistical/narcissistic and having cojones. The LNP haven’t worked it out as yet. Giggle.
The truth GG the truth.
I recommend to all ” Salmon fishing in the Yemen” by Paul Torday. Read it and weep with pleasure.. Particularly recommended for those who post here or lurk.
ESJ,
You are a genius. I have never known “Greens ” to be lured by the truth.
Harry
I agree. The combination of lazy, egotistical, rude and gutless would be a first.
ESJ
I’m just about to read the section in the CIA history “Legacy of Ashes” on the Nixon years. I’ll let you know how he gets on…
In the days when the righteous ruled the land and God lived in Bennelong, I recall that the Greatest Treasurer on Earth entrusted a goodly proportion of the Future Fund to American Fund Managers.
Are those monies still in American hands, and how has that investment prospered?
Would we have been better off following Malcolm Fraser’s advice, or are aging public servants now destined to retire to a life of luxury due to the Tip Top Stragedy?
Anyone know?
For those still wondering where is Brendan, I have found him busking at a self awareness seminar.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMeub2NK_Fs
zoom
#101
“Sorry, Ron, but 35% for the Libs ISN’T far too low.
I have faith they can go even lower…”
I ‘ve just completely ditched my short sighted opinion Zoom , and I am going 100% with your faith my friend
Harry
” Salmon fishing in the Yemen” by Paul Torday
could there be red Herrings in those Yemen waters to fish for
Fulvio , thinkthey’v sunk just like alot of Chinese investments , althugh Chinese in past hav been more cautous taking less return and US Treasury As you imply monies could built alot of schools , hospitals and infrastucture instead of US Managers creaming fees
Fulvio 111
I don’t know about all of the FF investment but I recall reading recently that they were holding a lot in cash deposits at present which is very sensible. That cash has both held up liquidity in the local banking system and still earns interest rather than risking losses. AFAIK they had not posted a loss, which is a good result.
Not thanks to past or present government mind - the FF is run by people who know something about finance.
Here come the DD triggers:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/nelsons-battle-plan-oppose-at-every-turn/2008/08/18/1218911572783.html?page=2
That’s good to hear Socrates. But you’d think something which ties up so much of the Nations retirement investment would be more transparent, with regular official public reporting of outcomes.
I don’t read the financial papers much (well, to be honest, at all) but I’m sure I would have noted with interest any reported profit/loss statement if it had been published, and I’m also sure at least some of the media would have widely disclosed information if it was available
I also wonder at the logic (as opposed to the original idealogical obligation and desire to ingratiate) of the initial decision to place control of the funds monies in foreign hands.
Oh Dear, after nine months of doing nothing except dream of who could be their next leader, shadow cabinet is ‘bored’ and has began a new bout of dreaming about who could be the next leader.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24201664-952,00.html
William, NSW newspoll.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24203986-5006784,00.html
Latest on Mayo by election candidates.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24197127-5006787,00.html
Fulvio
To be fair, the FF does report regularly; its just that the MSM doesn’t always bother mentioning it unless there is something interesting. I found this document:
http://www.futurefund.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/2293/Portfolio_Update_300408_Approved.pdf
So they are reporting quarterly and up to 30 April 2008 their return in 2007/08 was +2.7%, well ahead of the negative returns most funds reported in 2007/08. Looks like Gary Costello and Vanguard are doing a good job.
Despite my cynicism of the Howard government’s wasteful spending and financial management generally, I have no complaint about the Future Fund. It was a sensible decision to prepare for future PS super liabilities and the management of it has been taken out of political hands and given to people who are competent with cash. Similar to the Queensland government’s approach with PS super (via QITC) and that state is now miles ahead financially as a result.
Henderson is off with the pixies again, this time on the play Gallipoli:
“Military debacle”… “devised with the best intentions”. Sound familiar?
I guess if it was a military debacle based on grave mistakes in both intelligence and generalship - although all done “with the best intentions” - then, gee Gerard, they really did die in vain, didn’t they? Their best intentions… our soldiers’ lives. Sounds about right.
Apparently there’s only one “correct” interpretation of Gallipoli, and the latest stage production does not conform to it. So pontificateth Gerard, anyway.
I’ve often thought that Howard’s obsession with Gallipoli was more about touting the idea of fighting Muslims on their own ground as the cannon fodder of a foreign protector, and hence to justify Iraq.
Henderson is still one of Howard’s greatest supporters. Gerard’s little dummy-spit this morning does not disabuse me of my suspicions regarding the Gallipoli Industry.
This is especially poignant when you consider that to prop up the “gallant defeat” schtik of Gallipoli, real existential battles like Kokoda (which we, uhm… won… no debacles there) were officially played down, pooh-poohed and outright trivialized by members of Howard’s government (e.g. Downer) and his tame appointees to the Australian War Memorial.
Kokoda was another close run thing too, not the battle… the politics. Old Churchill got us into the “military debacle” in Gallipoli in 1915, and tried to squeeze us into staying in North Africa in 1942. We could always win New Guinea back, it seems was the Old Man’s thinking, like Singapore. Luckily for us, Curtin was made of stern stuff and turned him down the second time, against the advice of… wait for it… Earl Page and Pig Iron Bob Menzies sitting on the Imperial War Cabinet in London. How’s that for “close to the action”?
No, no, no, no… say the revisionists. Kokoda was a Labor show, therefore it was all shabby politics, grandstanding and smoke-and-mirrors. We can’t have no steenkin Labor governments getting the credit for military successes. The Libs own national security, don’t y’know? “Gallipoli forever!”
But there was, however, thankfully one difference between Gallipoli and Iraq. Just about the only thing Howard got right regarding Iraq was that he kept our soldiers, in the main, out of the killing zones, thus minimizing both our own and Iraqi casualties at our hands. Quite a different reality compared to Gallipoli. Maybe it was the wheat we thought we could flog the Iraqis that caused us to tone down the mass killing side of things?
After all, they like the taste of Aussie wheat. Everybody knows that.
From Russian with love indeed. Apparently there is no movement at the station at Sweet Georgia Brown.
The Russians are simply following the template set down by the Americans in how to do “regime change” (simply substitute Iraq with Georgia and USA with Russia) and Nato in the Kosovo intervention (simple substitute Serbia with Georgia, Kosovo with South Ossetia and Nato with Russia).
As I understand it the Future Fund has not yet made any truly substantial investments.
They are very much below the radar in markets at the moment.
Socrates is right - they have huge amounts in cash deposits (still).
But when your mandate is to earn CPI+3% and you can do that in cash and Bank bills, why not?
Socrates,
That “update” is from 30 April. Hopefully the 31 July update will come out soon.
I also notice the “Latest News” on the front page includes documents in March as the latest “latest news”.
So their not exactly ear-bashing us!
Rates Analyst
Agreed it will be interesting to see where the FF eventually invest the cash. But given the current market, I am quite pleased they have not rushed in and made premature investments, when many funds have still to finish declaring their sub-prime losses. There has also been a considerable windfall benefit to our banking institutions by having that cash in hand when international markets are short of credit.
BTW I know this is an engineers view of the world, but to put “infrastructure bottlenecks” in perspective, here is a quote from a shipping industry website. I think it is pretty damming of the previous governments infrastructure spending record. bear in mind that the costs of queued up cargo ships runs into millions of dollars per day, and last year we exported several billion dollars less of minerals than we otherwise would have because of these capacity constraints. i.e. we couldn’t get the minerals out of our ports fast enough to satisfy customers who wanted to buy it.
“Nearly 17 % of the 750-strong global fleet of Capesize bulk carriers were delayed at ports over the weekend, according to the Global Port Congestion Index which tracks ship delays. Of the 129 bulk carriers at anchor, 52 are off Australia, with another 51 at ports in Brazil. Of the ships waiting off Australia, 38 are off Newcastle waiting for coal.”
Oz actions for Georgia
An ABC Reporter located in Georgia reported late last nite on an ABC site no withdrawal , I copied story for myself and was only going to post link , but I cann’t find link now , so sorry am posting part of ABC Journos whose inside Georgia
“Deadline passes for Russian withdrawal from Georgia
Russia moving missile launchers into South Ossetia: reports (PM) The deadline for Russia to begin withdrawing its forces from Georgia has now passed.
There are now reports of the Russian military moving short range ballistic missile launchers into South Ossetia.
American intelligence officials say the Russian military has deployed several SS-21 missile launchers and supply vehicles to positions north of Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital.
From there the missiles can reach much of Georgia, including Tbilisi, the capital.
There does appears to be movement of Russian troops from some positions in Georgia.At a Russian road block just outside the town of Gori, ABC correspondent Phillip Williams saw Russian tanks, armoured personnel carriers and jeeps heading in the direction of South Ossetia.
But he also passed an entrenched Russian force just 35 kilometres from Tbilisi, which shows no sign of moving.”
Cost of appeasement
Stephen Smith Australia’s FA minister could not hav been more blunt to Russians , its not yours to occupy
I find most informed Aussies do not hate USA , but ar continuously frustrated & angry at its continuing FA double standards , hypocracy and self interst Even this late stage , barring fronm G* (and therefore probably from WTA) , making Georgia a provisional NATO membber , and moving troops to its Capital Tbilisi would be “a JFK Cuban crisis” type play to face down poker man Putin …before it too late
What do we get from USA , th three major policans McCain Obama Bush , th three Stooges , with Bush & Obama weakly still ‘talking about’ what USA may or may not do after both lamely initially blamed Georgia as well , whilst McCain’s approach no doubt is absolutely correct but whether its driven by sheer politcs who knows with USA politcans
Kevin RUDD hope is th working overseas hot lines to get any Leader to show some ‘mettle’ …maybe in Europe , to reely financially punish Russia big time by kicking Russia out of G8 , and thereby effectively zeros there WTA member application
Exactly what does Georgia have to do with Australian electoral analysis?
Foreign Affairs has ALWAYS been an “oz politcal issue” (and particulaly warsd like Iraq and Vietnam) that th Liberals try to wedge Labor on
Last 3 electon hav been on it If you do not think Nelson and co ar not sweating on Labor’s reaction to this massive Geo political play , which ALSO ultimately will impact on oil and gas prices , and so inflation & growth
BTIW , what do you want to talk about
‘116 Dario’
The LNP does not present a sufficient or persuasive argument for its decision to block these government policies in the Senate. The reason really seems to be ‘because I can’. Well not really - it is their close association with those industry groups that continues to set their policy, even out of government. They can no longer think for themselves.
It also appears to have decided to block things the public might actually see as sensible things - like Fuel watch, medicare levie and alcopop tax, luxury care tax.
So later during an election campaign we might see these things come up again - Liberal’s blocked efforts to help Australians …… etc.
Liberal party is in bed with medical insurance companies to keep premiums and income base up.
Liberal party is in bed with energy industry to keep their profits and profit base up - anit-climate change anti-measures to deal with it.
The Liberal party is in bed with the alcohol industry and both support drink driven youth crime, the victimisation of young women.
The Liberal party is in bed with the rich elite by blocking luxury car tax.
The Liberal party is bed with Big Oil by blocking Fuel watch.
Who does the Liberal party support? The anti-Australia party? The LNP have given Labor some ammunition for their magazine later.
Liberal voters genuinely believe in there philosophy , and Greens voters genuinely believe in there philosophey Result is policy differences on those philosophys by all three Partys
Liberal Conservative looney faction (Howard) ar 100% for business and free enterprise & st.ff equity There is a Greens looney dogma faction believing th extremist reverse Fortunately Bob Brown is not part of that faction
Labor is a ‘left’ equity based policy Party , which recognises both reality of globilisation and positive benefits of growth & low inflation for average people , and so sensibly ties one to other Whilst debates/disagreements within Labor Party arise regarding th margins
Liberal Party’s opposition on above issues is consistent with there philosophy , and is equally opositionist regarding private schools , private hospitals , private non medicare for same reason Pity for debating purposes small “L” liberal faction is so small now
Ron
I agree that is what Liberals think. There are so many inconsistencies in their policy and indeed internal contradictions in their “philosophy” that it isn’t credible.
Regarding business, there are three massive contradictions:
First they talk about free enterprise and free markets, but whenever it is inconvenient (to business) this is ignored. For example, the single desk wheat sale system continues, even after evidence that it harmed the national interest (bribes to Iraq). No free market there.
Second numerous subsidies to business continue: diesel excise rebates for farmers and miners (why a subsidy? if a subsidy, why only those industries?), tax deductions for business cars etc. They want the rest of us to supprot them.
Third, the “user pays” principle is applied to individuals but not businesses. Individuals are expected to pay income tax and yet still have to fork out more for the health, education and transport. Business thinks it perfectly legitimate not to pay tax, and still wants the state to provide all the services they need: foreign trade, infrastructere and skill training support presumably get provided at someone else’s expense. On top of that, there is the question of who pays for those who can’t pay for themselves: the young, old, sick, mentally ill etc. If business gets away with paying no tax then the rest of us are stuck with the welfare bill too.
Regarding liberal “philosophy” I have a much bigger concern though. The hard liners who have degenerated into mere conservatives (not small l liberals) seem to think its fine to combine absolute business freedom with the right of business or the state to limit personal freedoms. That was why Workchoices jarred so deeply; business could bargain but there was no right to strike or collective bargain, a clear attack on personal freedom.
Attitudes on social issues such as abortion, euthenasia and gay marriage are no better. So they have this bizarre notion of “freedom” that says business can do anything and individuals can’t.
In the end, you can see from their behaviour that Libeal philospphy simply boils down to a tribal “help my friend/hurt my enemy” mindset, with business being their friend, rather than any coherent “philosophy”. No different to the NSW ALP right, just the opposite set of friends. Hence I have low regard for both.
Bushfire Bill @ 122 -
“Military debacle”… “devised with the best intentions”. Sound familiar?
Best/good intentions? Aren’t they what the road to someplace called Hell is paved in? I think it’s near Gori in Georgia.
Maybe it was the wheat we thought we could flog the Iraqis that caused us to tone down the mass killing side of things?
After all, they like the taste of Aussie wheat. Everybody knows that.
Funny then how they don’t buy much of it anymore, isn’t it? OTOH, American and recently European wheat farmers are laughing all the way to the bank:
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Agflation/idUSN2145832620080721
GG @ 112
lol.
LTEP @ 129
Good question.
Let’s face it, growing up in the 1950’s with wistful dreams of the British Empire, and not going to Vietnam and all, gave little Johnnie a bit of a soldier complex. The lead in all that petrol and in his toy soldiers probably did not help.
One of his enduring successes was a trend to militarizing Australia. He probably both rode it and stoked the trend.
He was well above the average of other world leaders during his tenure in terms of sending off the troops, so it must have given him a secret thrill.
If the result of the last elections had been reversed we would probably have troops on the way to Ossetia by now to show the Russians a thing or two.
But, to be fair and on the plus side, one of the few things for which Howard and Downer were not properly recognized was that they showed some sensible cold feet about jumping into any Taiwan Strait stoush.
ESJ @ 107 and others
lol
ESJ. while I wouldn’t want to teach my grandmother to suck eggs, and noting that you are obviously an accomplished exponent of the angler’s art, here are some fishing tips for your consideration:
1. Chuck in plenty of berley. The closer the berley smells and looks like the real fish tucker the better (as in your ‘truth’). The volume of berley should be calibrated to keep the prey fish hungry for more.
2. If at first you don’t succeed, keep casting. Sooner or later, prey fish cannot restrain themselves from striking at a well-presented lure.
3. If your line gets snagged, don’t pull it directly towards yourself. If the lure suddenly comes unstuck and rushes back towards you, the trebles can become embedded in some nasty places, of which I would rate eyes and those things Costello lacks as being the nastiest.
4. When in croc country don’t stand at the water’s edge. No need for you to get hurt, so stand well back from the water.
5. When in shark country/box jellyfish country don’t stand in the the water.
6. Vary your lure choice according to the prey species. For example, lures with a bit of pink in them are often attractive to rainbow trout, which also have a bit of pink on them. And so, for a green fish…
7. Vary your retrieval action according to the prey species.
8. Team fishing is useful because you can use a combination of lures and retrieval actions in the same bit of water. It can really get the prey species stirred up. I note that you do, from time to time, receive some well-judged support from fellow fishers.
9. If you don’t get a hook up, move to another patch.
10. Keep a few panfish, but throw the rest back for another day.
11. Most of all, take care not to hook yourself. From personal experience, I have to say that the medicos can hardly stop laughing for long enough to cut the hook out and stitch you up.
Tight lines.
If Rudd puts the alcopops, medicare levy etc legislation back to House Reps for a second time, to get DD trigger would Nelson still oppose them?
Well it depends on whether he thinks Labor would want to hold an election over taxes. In any event it’s questionable whether Mr Nelson would be around in the time it took there to be double dissolution triggers and if there is a leadership change, whether the shadow cabinet would be markedly different. By then, there may be differing perspectives on the legislation.
Medicare levy would be a very popular DD trigger–a big tax CUT
Jovial Monk @ 139
There have been other posts suggesting that a DD is highly unlikely apparently because it mightn’t solve the BOP problem in the Senate.
I would guess that if the WA premature something or other backfires, as it were, then the likelihood of a DD would be even less.
It looks like the libnats are going to try and delay/stop anything or part of anything that they deem unpopular. The question will be whether labour has better spin: ‘We would like to get on with governing but these clueless, negative, irresponsible do nothings are blocking us’ or whether the libnats ‘Labour is out to punish working families and we are protecting them’ line works better.
One issue is whether labour is going to accept compromise, and have the libnats cherrypick, or whether labour does not compromise and just shuts down whole packages, blaming the libnats for the whole thing.
Obviously, lots of interesting tactical work coming up.
Never said nothing about HAVING a DD. But Nelson or J. Bishop might think twice about opposing the second time.
Having the WA ALP returned as is likely will make the DD stick a bigger one.
Well, I hope Brendan is true to his word.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24207255-12377,00.html
I was waiting for this. From the Daily Telegraph’s on-line letters forum:
Now Rudd is responsible for the poor little baby whale losing its mother. There should be a plan in place for these kinds of happenings. Presumably putting the calf into a federally funded Maritime National Park… or something.
All I can say is …. wow.
Next month Costello releases his book, then retires from politics. It will be back to business as usual Brenda v Talcum.
Brenda thinks he will have the numbers ’till the next election. He may be correct but only by a slim margin.
This ensures regular leadership speculation for the next two years. Sigh
I think it’s pretty obvious that it was a teenage whale driven to ecstasy use (or whatever drugs young whales are using these days) by the high price of alcopops and Rudd removing the $5000 lump sum payment for all new whales born
145
Bushfire Bill
BB, It read like sarcasm to me but I might have a dysfunctional sarcasm antenna.
148 Steve K - you could be right. I really don’t think anyone would be that stupid do you? Although over at that blog that “shall remain nameless” …..
With the blocking of the changes to the Medicare levy, the libs intentions are to eventually have 90% of people falling into the $50,000 pa income threshold and there by ending the Universal Medicare and having pensioners and the marginalised needing government health benefits.
Which of coarse that has been their intention since 1975
A good one to have a DD on!
How would the minors view the possibility of a DD and how are their finances?
If Labor has a hostile Senate now, and the Senate has already decided to block even minor policies, it might not be much of a concern having a DD. It might come down to how they think they will do in the house of Reps.
If there is the genuine opportunity there to knock of another dozen seats wouldn’t they take it. It also punches some more holes into LNP finances.
Plus a solid victory would give them sufficient bragging rights in the Senate.
Dude…you would be amazed…
Sci-fi hasn’t caught up with the **The Telegraph** yet
TP
The minors don’t want a DD as they know they would lose the balance of power when Labor cruise to an easy win. Less Labor voters would do the two-bob each way and split the houses with their votes coz we’ll all be pretty pissed off at having to vote again. The Greens, Mr X and FF are thinking hard about how to maintain their relevance in the next parliament. Expect some surprises…
GB
On re-reading my cut and paste jobbie of your words came out wrong…
Apologies
Diogenes
A DD improves the likelyhood of minor parties being elected to the Senate as all senators are up for election not the usual half.
The quota required for election is thus halved.
So it it the Fibs who would lose out in a DD election, that is why I doubt there will be one.
Gary Bruce @ 144
That should inspire the troops!
If he keeps that promise, I am sure that there would be plenty of labour voters who would be prepared to chip in for a new guitar for his 52nd.
Shame on you KRUDD, most unpopular PM since Whitlam.
That is either trolling, or el primo stupidity.
the secret to electoral success-NOT
Nuclear is the answer: Liberals
“http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24207945-29277,00.html”
MayoFeral @ 135
The grand plan on both sides was to keep slaughtering away until one side or the other ran out of people to slaughter. While we tend to get a bit focused on Gallipoli for cultural/historical/partriotic, and perhaps even party-partisan reasons, in the end it really did not matter much where the slaughter happened, as long as it contributed to the overall slaughter.
However, Gallipoli was probably not such a good place for the English, French and Australians to get into the slaughtering game because the Turks had the high ground, sea landings were notoriously chancy and the depth of our holdings was a bit shallow. Also, the logistical connections were not too good for us and relatively easier for the Turks. Finally, the Turks were defending their homeland on home soil and were therefore well-motivated.
The Germans withdrew to a defensive line ino the Western Front that gave themselves all the advantages of terrain. This gave them slaughtering efficiencies.
Ahem. Bit of a connection between the Boer War and Gallipoli, actually. General Hamilton, a rooinek Boer War hero of sorts, cocked things up so badly in the second Gallipoli landings that he practically single-handedly ensured that the whole shebang was doomed to failure - in terms of the immediate priority of opening a short supply route to the Russian army.
Turns out the Britishers were more effective at war crimes in the Boer War (wholesale murder by neglect of boer women and children in concentration camps) than they were at fighting boer commandoes. In terms of war crimes, the ex horse-thief and cold-blooded murderer of civilians, Breaker Morant, was hopelessly inept by comparison.
Of course both sides were better at bastardising/murdering the bantus than at anything else, but like in Iraq and Afghanistan, nobody was counting. Baden Powell’s role in the near starvation and death of bantus does not bear close examination. The noble cause of Hamilton’s practical war experience? The rooineks were after the Joburg gold and invaded two democracies to get it.
I do hope that if plans for a Boer War memorial in Canberra go ahead that it is dedicated to: the bantus, to the inventors of the concentration camps, to the gold bugs, to the war criminals (in particular Kitchener) and to the Boer women and children who died by the thousands. But, I bet you they won’t, because they will be more interested in perpetuating self-glorifying historical crap.
List of Australia’s useless wars: Maori War, Boer War, WW1, Korean War, Vietnam War, Konfrontasi, Iraq, Afghanistan. Other formerly warlike nations have managed to avoid going to war for centuries. Why is Australia such an habitual warmonger? Why do we gravitate to slaughter? It is not pre-ordained. We have choices.
Australia might even have been able to stay out of WW2 if neutral and strongly armed, rather than, as was the case, the reverse.
Didn’t Brenda say that the only way Australia would have nuclear power stations is if Rudd introduced them?
The cracks are getting bigger.
Yes, apparently next month Cossie releases his book. He will go on about how a sensational economic manager he was and how he was concerned about funding Coconut’s irresponsible promises.
This book will be about Cossie taking ownership of the economic successes of the previous government and how Howard should have stepped down when Cossie asked him to.
Finally, he will go on about what a better PM than the Rodent he would have been and what a difference to the party he could have made.
The media will have premature ejaculations in planning for his honeymoon for the leadership, Cossie then becomes leader, and the long race starts for the next election.
And as I mentioned on the WA thread it won’t help the WA Libs, even if Barnett ruled out a Power Station.
And despite what the pro nuclear lobby think, this is a vote loser, pure and simple.
Ru
that was Brenda the Good,not his evil twin Brenda the Bad
apparently the good brenda keeps the bad one at bay, but when talcums itches the bad one comes out
Socrates
Shame Nelson and Libs over Medicare Levy , but consistent
Regarding particulaly ‘conservative facton Liberals like John howard , I actualy find consistency in there inconsistencys , because its there in its core written Party’s doctrine You may be trying to understand fron a ‘left-centric’ viewpoint by separating ‘business’ from ‘individual’ (or rather a specifi class of ‘individuals’
Medicare levy & $50,000 threshold , deliberateley planned 3 cruel blows at Labor ‘left’ most basis equity & social philosophy and existing policy
One to undermine principal of medicare , universal for all , cost not an inhibiting factor , free at low end , reasonable cost for middle , and fair escalation ttherafter
Two , to suport a PRIVATE entreprise Health Insurance industry , by making it more attractive to go private enterprise, at espense of public medicare system , AND these Private Insurance Industry is STILL still partly finaced by tax payer
Three , consequently via private health Insurance Industry , to further attact peoples into PRIVATE hospital Industry , at expense of public hospital system ,
AND these Private Hospital Industry is STILL still partly financed by tax payer
LESS monies collected by Governmetn from Medicare means LESS monies available for Hospitals (and finance th hart of Medicare This was a ‘business’ free enterprise Liberal Partys dogma at war with a labor ‘left’ equity supplied via Governemtn at a reasonable cost , and available to all
I’m obviously talking in broad here , as yes we need more Public hospitals , more beds etc etc (& yes private hospitals serve a purpose) , but clear philosophical and therefore policy diferences between Labor and curent ruling ‘consevative’
facton of Libs (& also with minority small ‘l’ libs)
In an ideal Howard world then all hospitals would become private and everyone must have private insurance. Thus health becomes secondary to profit motive at two levels and we know that when profits competes with human need who wins.
Socrates
#134
My further thoughts hav been to try to list by example in last post #165 , suggesting a common overall thread of Liberal philosohy (which then shows clearly in its consequent policys) , and its actualy wrtiten down in there sourse dogma doctrine , but ‘cleverly’ written for rusted on to lap up
If one compares to Labors (efectively Chifley ‘light on hill’ basis) , Liberals see firstly ’small’ government’ that does not interfere with th key Liberal philosophy priority being ‘private enterprise’ ( which to them leads to econamic wealth & growth as an end result…and end object….so there is no equity thought built in at end objective , as there is with Labor Think ‘freedom of individal’ is broadlley reffering to ‘freedom’ to participate or start in a ‘free enterprise’ busines….which almost by extension implys ‘workers’ in those ‘free enterprise’ business’s (run/owned by those ‘individual freedom of individuals’) ar almost a non entity or machine Now its not quite as stark as that , but seeems thats where emphasis is
Further , think they see ‘private enterprise’ providing a ‘trickel down’ efect to workers …non business owners , but with major rewards going to business individuals
So when you mention for example govt subsidies or tax concessions for business , thats consistent with there view that ‘private enterprise’ sits at ‘apex’ , and such ‘handouts’ simply oil it When you mention examples of ‘user pay’ , again thats th ‘apex’ (’free enterprise’) doing its priority job
You may hav a diferent view and am interested in your thoughts However thats why I for moment see no inconsistencys in there policys for tax subsidies , or user pays or , non ‘free enterprise owners’ individuals freedoms as they ar not part of ‘apex of a market economy as an end in itsself objective
As to NSW Labor facton you were unhappy with , well all Partys hav strains within them as Partys ar people with ambition as well as policy agendas , key is to ensure Partys overall policy & standards remain , thats ongoing Do you tend towards a Bob Brown approach , a Bracks faction approach , a Beattie or other I always found John Button in many ways ideal
Ron
“Small government” is another Liberal myth. They only say they want small government. What they want is government to act as a pro-business bully.
Despite the rhetoric, Howard by 2001 was spending more on government than Keating did! ROTFL!! He trully earnt his title “the drunken sailor”. Even worse, he managed to push government spending up while investment in education and infrastructure shrank. It was only the mining boom increase in national revenue that stopped Howard setting even more records in govt spending as a % of GDP. His spending kept increasing well ahead of inflation; he was just lucky that the economy grew faster than his pork barrel.
I don’t see my critique as relying on “leftist” ideology. The issues I refrred to are core aspects of political philosphy since the days of Locke and Mill, the founders of Liberalism. I didn’t even mention equity.
Ron
I’m not a member of any party but I’d say I’m closer in ideology to Labor than Liberal. Ironically I’m one of those small L liberals so its curious to me that I perceive that Labor and Liberal have shifted so far to the right that I seem to be too the left of both. I suppose that must be why I come across as a leftist. Yet I saw myself in the 80s as a centrist and more conservative than average. I don’t believe my views have moved to the left. The greens are too far to the left for me, but I can at least respect their sincerity. However I don’t think any party goes on philosophy these days; its sound-bite first, principles second.
As for Labor figures, I realise that the NSW Right is not the whole party and there are some bits I do respect. Of current figures I’d list John Faulkner, Lindsay Tanner and Penny Wong as my favourite performers. Quite happy with Rudd, Swan and Gillard so far too.
Socrates
It seems that the left and centre have merged. I was always left of centre and now find myself left of Labor on some things. I am still left re Health, Education and Transport. I am not against privatisation on most things except those 3 mentioned above. I am sorry that the Dems have disappeared as to place a protest vote is much more difficult (as I did in 2001).
Interesting couple of stories about the Pineapple Party and debt. The first about a backflip by Springborg on phasing out stamp duty and the other about the debt left over from the Liberal’s Gold Coast City Council campaign.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24210335-5006786,00.html
QUEENSLAND’S newly merged Liberal National Party has been saddled with a $600,000 debt because Liberal leaders were misled over the costs of a failed election campaign.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24210334-5006786,00.html
The Electoral commision of Queensland has released the final report into the redistribution of state seats.
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/asp/index.asp?pgid=393
The mining industry looks for a free ride and free permits. The status quo suits them and they’re giong to fight for it to last as long as possible.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24210440-2702,00.html
In good news, Ruddster supports geothermal with $50M which should shut the mining industry up a bit. The mining industry is a bit torn on geothermal. They obviously do well with the drilling and set-up of geothermal but they prefer coal with carbon capture.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/20/2340898.htm?section=justin
• The proposed electorate of Macrossan has been renamed Dalrymple after a well known North Queensland explorer and pastoralist. This change was supported in
a number of objections, including The Nationals (QRC/OBJ823) and Kett
Kennedy (QRC/OBJ95) who provided the Commission with a biographical
account of both figures.
• The electorate of Samsonvale has been renamed Pine Rivers which the
Commission accepts provides a better known and accepted identity for the area.
The Commission received a significant level of support for this change, including
support from the ALP, The Nationals and the Moreton Bay Regional Council.
• The electorate of Dalby has been renamed Condamine, taking into account the
fact that the Condamine River provides a geographical link which runs the length
of the electorate. Condamine was also the name of a previous electorate in the
region and was supported in a number of objections including one from The
Nationals.
Stafford doesn’t get parts of Chermside back, Clermont stays in Gregory and Mt Morgan stays in Mirani despite the objections about these three areas.
In other changes in the final report.
Duaringa and Bauhinia go to Gregory not Callide.
Kuranda comes out of Cook and into Barron River.
Perigian Springs stays in Noosa.
Doonan stays in Noosa
Township of Cooroy stays in Nicklin.
Mooloolah goes to the Caloundra electorate not Glasshouse.
Flagstone goes to Beaudesert.
Part of Cornubia West goes to Springwood rather than Redlands.
Waterford West stays in Waterford rather than Springwood.
Muskiemp
You are right but in a snse that is my point. you class yourself as “left” but I would say that you are in the merged centre you refer to. Forty years ago Robert Menzies, no socialist himself, presided over an economy with tarrif barriers, full employment, home loans capped at 6% interest and State owned banks. What passes for “normal” now is VERY right wing by any historical standard.
Socrates @ 176
Spot on.
Folk who think that Howard’s legacy is finished just because he got shunted from parliament, should think again. There are a huge number of Howard-vetted appointments still beavering away. Terms of reference and/or scopes of various institutions are still in place. Funding for pro-Howard world view institutions went up, and vice versa.
The framing of many debates still owes a lot to Howard. The real differences between liberal and labour on economic management are at the edges.
Militarism has had a boost and there is no sense that this will change under labour. We are still in two wars. The US alliance is stronger than it was when he arrived and has not diminished since.
Labour has reverted to bilateral trade deals.
The electorate has been conditioned by Howard’s populism to dependency on the government purse, the begging bowl, and an abiding sense of resentment that the government might be giving somebody else more. My guess is that this will be one of Howard’s enduring legacies, because it is very difficult to rebase the electorate to a different set of expectations.
The edges between church and state have become more blurred and there is no sense that this will change under labour.
The environment was generally toast under Howard and is still generally toast under Rudd. Be interesting to see whether this changes over time.
There are a few significant changes: racist dog whistling, compulsive xenophobia and bastardization of ethnic minorities have virtually disappeared under Rudd. Unfortunately, the latter is still into wrapping himself in the flag.
Boerwar
Yes I am no fan of Howard’s either. In the end he became a shrewd politician but never cared much about principles. Sticking to your own prejudices is not the same thing. I see little of Menzie’s principles in Howard; the latter only admired the former for winning, not much else.
All those who say he was a politician of substance should remember back to his stint as treasurer under Fraser. He was not called “Honest John” out of flattery - he was caught out badly several times. He just learnt to cover his tracks better over time. If that passes for substance then give me someone shallow.
Socrates
#169
“Ron
Small government” is another Liberal myth. They only say they want small government. What they want is government to act as a pro-business bully.”
Liberals and “small Governemtn a ‘Liberal myth’ , Yes and No I feel Socrates
ditto Liberals and “freedom of individual” a ‘Liberal myth’ again Yes and No I think Socrates Liberals and
“100% support free enterprise market system for profit ” Yes (and no No at all) , believing in benefits accruing ‘finally’ at poor level via ‘trickle down ‘efect’
I happen to believe above is true , but trying to successfuly explain Liberals Partys pecular interpretation of th above conflicting astatements into there philosiphy/beliefs is always been dificult
Believe thats why some pundits hav trouble identifying precisely what th Liberals do or ghav ever stood for
As to policy implementation from that , well sometimes they’ reimplemented
‘pure’ and sometimes less so What I do suggest is that out of above yes and no 5 combinations th ‘core centrepiece’ is free enterprise for profit (last combination) and that remaining 4 combinations of interpretation from from that centrepiece
For example ’small governemnt like ignore Howard’s bribing middle class welfare that created actualy ‘big government’ because Howard failed one aspect of there philosophy there but if one looks broader at there ’small government’ YES and NO philosophy , on one hand they believe in policys to ensure th less government does so ( say outsourcing Centre Link, hospitals schools etc) that leaves more for th ‘core centrepiece’ of free enterprise for profit in th total economy , AND policys then ar actively implamented for that purpose
YET conflictingley Liberals will use Public Govt to bully and subsidise this supposedly non govt needed free enterprise system or Industry where needed , in reality Liberals cynicly see this as simply oiling th core centrepiece or Industry to maintain its viabilty , and do not see th blatant contradiction of govt
‘of ’socialising’/protecting profits vuia subsidies/bus tax concessions for a supposedly independent of govt free enterprise system (thats where I got my Yes and No from in first paragraph) Further more conflictingly , Liberals then hav to create massive Federal/State Govt Tax & Industry beauocracies to adnminister these subidies , schemes & bus tax concessions (antithisus of ’small govt’)
So whilst there is a contradicton with ’small govt’ myth , and there is a above , core centrepiece of supporting free enterprise system for profit still remains achieved in both contradictions
Other combinations lited initially to me follow a similar conflicting pattern , but suport there core centrepiece…which is th end objective Thats my view of Liberals Why I mentioned Labor’s ‘equity’ base is Labors core beliefs/policy implementation do not hav Liberals support free enterprise as centrepiece and end objective , Labor instead sees th free enterprise system PLUWS government as simply a MEANS (niot an end objectice) to achieve more equity & social justice (of which ‘Medicare’ is an obvious example both of Labor , and its difference to Liberals who’d prefer US style free enterprise healthcare
Same policy fdiffs to Privae hospital , schools , unemployment benefis , medicare levy plus medicare itself , etc Most ‘left’ people see this contrast starkly I submit there is no change in this respect between 1980’s and now at all
What has however changed is globilisation and necessity to be absolutely financialy responsible and maintain economic sustainability inside ‘oz’ as we’re competing NOW directly with World , but believe this reality and requirement of Labor to talk about ithis subject/policys for this subject hav created an illusion of ‘moving right’ , rather than using current economic Globilisation tools’ to achieve same equity & sovcial objectives So maybe Globilised World has changed and people like you Socrates and I hav more dificulty accepting those changes , but see no change in objectices Any thoughts
pre Globisation , difference of Partys end objectives were stark , all globilisation has done is to appear to cloud such diferences , but they are still there (all thats changed is ‘means’ (using glilisation) used to achhieve same end equiity & social objectives
Muskiemp & Socrates
missed your earlier posts
Muskiemp there has been a merging to centre on economic policy for Partys , which is unavoidable if one is to be an economicly responsible in a globilised world Limitations as to what one can do flow from that , however not as to how ones ’social’ expenditure priorities ar set
Socrates , saw your reference to Menzies , Menzies govt sided with every single Employer’s submission to Arbitration Commission in 50’s and 60’s AGAINST workers submissions…I’d classify Menzies as an Employer’s man , and th antithisus of either ‘centre’ or ‘left’
177 Boerwar, that is the most glowing account of the Howard years I have ever read. Had to put my sunglasses on to read it.
Steve ,
Wait till ‘Rodent’ writes his book “re-writing” our history of his 12 year Liberal Government , and how his priority was always on ‘helping ‘ Aussie “battlers”
Love to see how ‘Rodent” will rationalize promising $3 billion personal tax cuts to wealthiest in 2007 electon vs Rudd promising to ditch them and give that same $3 billion to Schools for computers , fast internet etc
Hate to break it to you, mate, but it was those ‘battlers’ that did the best under his government.
BTW: what happened to the “education revolution”? Where’s our “national broadband”? Pretty weird, huh?
Computers going into schools tho that is just the digital ER.
Fast broadband, bit difficult to implement thanks to Howard’s Telstra privatisation.
A-C they might have been battlers, but they weren’t stupid not to know how well they were doing under the Rodent. Result; they voted him out on his arse, including his own seat lol.
By the way A-C who would you like to see lead your “sinking ship” of a party at the next election?
Interesting to see a further market move on the next Fibs Leader (probably due to my 162 post)
Cossie 1.70
Straightbull 2.35
Brenda Nelson 3.50
Mother Of Chuckie 9.00
Schrek 26.00
Nutty Mad Monk 34.00
A-C
The stats that show the Ratman Battlers had done better than other demographics is a sham.
If you remove the massive rise in house prices, they have done much worse than others.
Do you remember Ratty saying “I have not had any complaints about rising house prices” ?
Just because the value of your assets have increased, it does not mean you are better off.
The Education Revolution is happening, unlike the Rat Govt. this one does things.
Did you read the Age yesterday?
“Australia’s first region-wide wireless broadband network has been established on South Australia’s Yorke Peninsula.” ?
At last we have a Govt. that does stuff, not just talk.
Hi Centre,
Who’s better off under Krudd now?
Low, middle, high earners or all of the above?
Really, I’m very curious. This country has really taken off over the past 9 months. Prosperity and success as far as the eye can see.
Ruawake,
I generally try not to read that leftwing rag -but please fill me in!
If Australia’s first region-wide wireless broadband network been established on South Australia’s Yorke Peninsula is the first accomplishment of this colossal $4.7 billion project over the last 9 months then what a sink-hole taxpayers have found themselves mired in.
How is the ‘computers for every student’ errr… “computers for every *two* students” policy going?
I bet the Ruddster had a few words to say to DFAT about this. A briefing given to NZ journos describing our government’s view of her as a left-wing control freak whose foreign policy is a hang-over from the Vietnam War days.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24211807-601,00.html
Whoops, “her” of course refers to Helen Clark.
A-C
My Sister in Law who works for the Education Dept. says it is going very well.
A-C
I’m better off. When I go overseas to countries other than the US I don’t get spat on anymore.
Yes A-C
Low income earners: Increased benefits for carers and pensioners.
Mid income earners: After 10 straight interest rate rises in a row (8 under Coco) some economists are predicting a cut of 50 points as soon as next month.
High income earners: They will get their turn. But when they do, it will be shared among all income earners, not exclusively to them such as under the Rodent.
What is so unfortunate for the Fibs is that voters are going to realise that everything that they said they could do, Labor can do - only better!
Given the state of global markets, I know many on the left here are going to disagree, but I would like to see capital gains tax abolished. It truly is a ridiculous tax that only serves to penalise aspirational voters who make investments to try to get ahead. (That’s if they are lucky enough to make a gain)!
Coy tax should be reduced. It would place our companies in a stronger position to compete globally. Sure that would benefit the higher end but mid income earners would stand to gain a windfall with their super as well.
Also, I would like to see a new tax threshold of say 80% for salaries above $3 million. Those that get it are not worth that much. Most of them are totally useless, whose company I would like to name.
Centre,
I would agree of abolishing the Capital Gains tax if the tax deductions in gaining that capital gains was also abolished.
Muskiemp, interesting that the Get-up organisation believes in reducing the discount rate from 50% to 35% on gains from assets held for longer than a year. That’s a good policy although I would go further to zero.
On second thoughts I would bring in an 80% threshold on salaries including bonuses to over $2 mil. They pay themselves what they like, and they are definitely worth no more.
Centre @ 195
The outcomes of the coming debate on tax reform are probably going to be central to the future prosperity of Australia for a generation and probably for the future of labour in Government. I dread to think of what the opposition and the minors will do to any significant reform in the Senate.
I lost count after a while but the Howard/Costello anti-red tape team added well over 5,000 pages of tax law during their stint. That is about 500 pages of tax law per year in office. Thanks fellas.
One result was that taxpayers steadily became more and more incapable of managing their tax affairs without paid professional assistance and, consequently, there was a shortage of same so the prices for tax services went through the roof. Also, as usual, the really wealthy smartypants still managed to avoid or minimise their tax significantly.
Responding to your comments I would suggest the following:
1. Any reform that results in a drastic reduction in the size of the tax act would be excellent. The implication is that the tax arrangements would be simplified.
2. Tax law should include a greater emphasis on their intent. This means that instead of having $10,000 a day QCs protecting the very rich using the letter of the law, we would have them trying a much more difficult legal task - trying to defend their clients from anything that looks like they are arranging things to avoid tax. When in doubt taxpayers could get a reading from the tax dept. But, benefit of doubt not to the tax minimiser/avoider/cheater. The intro to the new Tax act would encourage courts to take a very dim view of scammers. Rather than with petty thieves, we could crowd the jails with tax cheat criminals. Just fining them part of their ill-gotten gains is ridiculous. They are big-time thieves and should spend at least some time with petty thieves.
3. The reforms would need to be a package. Reduction in capital gains and in company tax are probably both desirable, but the degree would depend on where tax receipts and social welfare costs for the next generation are going.
4. My pet desire would be to see that the family home is taxed just like other investments and that religious enterprises and so-called not for profit enterprises are also taxed just like other investments. The national investment in family homes is distorting our productivity and is distorting our environmental footprint. McMansion Madness in a time of global warming.
5. My absolute favorite wish would be the re-introduction of hefty death and gift duties. This means that individuals in every generation would be encouraged to compete in the marketplace on a more fair footing.
Boerwar, on point no.5, it’s obvious that you have either already inherited everything or you’ve got bugger all to leave your children!
Fulvio Sammut @ 199
*wry grin*
Like most people I do the best I can within the laws as I find them, if I can only figure out what they mean.
I would say that, in general, the operation of my proposed changes to the tax laws would probably leave me, my children and my accountant less well off. I am hopeful that the Senate will save us all.
Changes to taxes on the family home and to superannuation arrangements would give me a hit but the country needs it. The superannuation arrangements desperately need reforming after the blatantly distorted gift giving to self-funded retirees carried out by Howard/Costello in their final years).
Pretty well regardless of what happens to me, I would like to see an environment where my children could thrive through hard work, integrity and enterprise.
Interesting post Boerwar.
I cannot agree with your points 4 & 5. The assets obtained in those points would have been derived from prior earnings and taxes already paid. Everything else, yep I agree.
The Howard government went to extraordinary lengths to catch Social Security cheats. OK catch Social Security cheats, but the amount saved by the government on those cheats would pale into insignificance compared to what could be received from tax evasion by the rich.
Centre @ 201
Thank you. Cf points 4&5, it is highly like that any substantial changes would have to take into account the current situation and that transition arrangements, or grandfathering, or some form of gradual introduction would probably be necessary to make it both somewhat fair to all, and palatable to enough of the electorate.
Amigo Ronnie & GG, we could be right afterall: “Politico.com reported yesterday that 75 percent of Americans believe that John McCain can “handle the job of commander in chief.” Only 50 percent feel the same about Obama. A whopping 42 percent told pollsters they believe Obama is simply not up to the task”.
The natives are getting restless.
The Finnigans @ 230
A mate of mine said that the thing that really matters would be who Obama’s or McCain’s veeps are, because neither of those two worthies is likely to survive for all that long. Some crazed red-neck would probably take out Obama, and McCain would probably die of stress and old age.
Apart from that rather negative consideration, turnout is a really big deal in the US. Are you aware of any stats on how turnout might affect probabilities in the US?
Finns,
Um, I’m sure some wise person has said that before. Oh, yes, it was me. The whole Obama campaign seems to be unfolding before our very eyes.
Boerwar 198
Obviously agree with your points 1, 2 and 3.
Regarding 4 - first I agree with you on charities, and would add sporting clubs into the mix. This loophole has gotten so bad that it almost encourages money laundering. Ever wonder why an exiled Russian billionaire wants to invest hundreds of millions on an english soccer club? He won’t get all his money back but it is untaxed and an easy way to get it out of Russia… hmmm.
As for 4 taxes on homes, it sounds good in principle but the reality is that the huge raft of taxes on property sales and land taxes mean that I doubt this would make much difference. So I don’t object but I don’t see it as the big issue. Better to end negative gearing if we could. Everyone with an investment property would whinge but in the end its a zero sum game. Also teh existence of such distortions undermines Centre’s argument that you are proposing taxes on things that have already been taxed. Often that isn’t so.
Regarding 5, yes I’d be happy to see death duties and gift taxes too. The US still has them with an exemption for the family home. But even that has an upper limit so if you inherit a $20M Manhatten apartment you will pay.
The most immediate changes I’d like to see are an end to the oddities - so many tax deductions for farming and mining for example that you see many farms bought simply for their tax advantages. That nonsense must stop.
For me the big reform needed is a revision to company tax rules to cap or minimise deductions. Untaxed share dividends combined with a leaky company tax system means that much corporate income goes largely untaxed.
Boerwar
Thinking about both our points, there are ways such reforms can gradually be introduced. Just put caps or upper limits on the dubious deductions and let inflation do the work. Don’t end negative gearing over night - just limit it (un-indexed) to properties under say $500k and over time this will limit it to what it was meant for.
Now the final redistribution was published yesterday, the knives are out in the Preselection battles in Queensland.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24214163-952,00.html
The Queensland Moderate Liberals are thinking of forming a new party to outflank the Pineapple Party.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24215736-5006786,00.html
GG, the narrative on the MSM is turning negative for the kid. Look at some of the headlines on RCP today:
# Obama Has Lost His Swagger
# Obama’s Trip Was a Mistake
# Inflated Expectations Hurting Obama - Michael Goodwin, NY Daily News
# Does Obama Need Hillary Clinton? - John Nichols, The Nation
# Obama’s Female Voter ‘Problem’ - Ruth Marcus, Washington Post
plus: RCP National Average 44.9 43.6 Obama +1.3
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Our lady candidate is sitting very pretty and the natives are getting very very restless.
Now a bunfight has broken out over the money left over from the Brough campaign in Longman last year.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24215739-5006786,00.html
Queensland water use not quite as restrictive as other states in taking water from the Murray Darling system.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24215665-5006786,00.html
Steve @ 212
Another example of how the fed and state lab governments have failed in water management?
213 Boerwar I think the Feds will take over the leading role here as it seems to be a case of ‘too many cooks’ when it comes to the Murray Darling system. While they might have all failed in the past I don’t think it has to always be that way.
The NAB announces it will pass on in full RBA interest rate cuts and now it looks like the Federal Opposition is the biggest threat to interest rate cuts.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24217120-12377,00.html
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/business/nab-pledges-to-pass-on-rate-cut/2008/08/21/1219262359733.html
Brenda’s picked himself a fight with Nats maverick Kay Hull over the importation of fruit pickers from Pacific Island nations.
Brenda, it seems, wants lazy, fat, unemployed Australians to fulfil at task that it appears nobody wants to undertake.
Brenda should know that fruits, when left to wither on the branches, fall to the ground and rot in the mud.
Brenda should also be aware that Kay Hull will stand her ground and fight for the interests of Riverina fruit growers and farmers in general (unlike most other Nats, who are political Neanderthals with sheep’s brains) at the expense of the Dr’s tenuous hold on the Lib leadership.
Steve @ 214
Agreed. It will be one of the major tests of the Rudd Government.
Boerwar
“Another example of how the fed and state lab governments have failed in water management?”
Another example of your regular closet ‘Greens Party’ snipes against Labor I’ve challenged you before to look at COAG 6 State/Federal meetings going back over 2 years where Howard was problem , but instead of actualy looking at ‘water’ facts that don’t suit you , you instead pretend there is no drought and hav criticised Rudd for doing little
212 steve
As a Crow Eater, that’s a fuc#ing disgrace. For greedy water-hungry Queenslanders to be allowed by their State and our Federal Governments to take a record amount of water from the MDB shows how broken our system of federalism is.
I look forward to the Queenslander Rudd and SA Wong’s response to this. I know what it will be. Let’s give the Queensland farmers lots of money very slowly.
Ronster-over to you
Ronster
I should add that I don’t blame Wong/Rudd for this but it is up to them to fix it. It was that disgusting creep Beatty who handed out the extra licenses during a drought. If they don’t, they’ll lose seats in SA. Rudd being a Queenslander leaves him open to charges that he is looking after his mates and throwing SA under the bus if he doesn’t do anything.
Diogenes, thought that it might get that reaction. I just wonder how long the voluntary buyback will go on. The irrigators may well be ‘alarmed’ but they are going to have to play some part in the reparation too.
http://www.waterconserve.org/shared/reader/welcome.aspx?linkid=104871&keybold=water%20buyback
FINNS
Kevin Rudd now faces another & new economic problem being further access problems to US markets & our Agricultural industries competing with unfair US trade policys
One narrative that has dramaticaly changed is both US candidates adopted very ‘protectionist’ trade policys , that will cause FURTHER immense harm to our ‘oz’ beef , wheat & other farming communities As well as our manufacturing exporting Industires as well
They ar both going to unfairly screw ‘oz’ further on Trade , thereby hurting our pocket signicantly , and some people in ‘oz’ instead ar inspired by these 2 US candidate politcans pretty words of nothings in reality Bush is a terrible man , however either of his 2 almost equaly incompetent replacements , will be worse in trade issues for us Aussies
Ron
I think the two candidates in the US should just cut the crap and make each other their running mate.
Well heres some good news (hehehe) an environmental problem lack of money will solve. Remember that Gunns Pulp Mill proposal and claims they would have no trouble finding a funding source after ANZ withdrew …
Gunns have just announced a profit downgrade and their share price has lost 25% in three days. They are now selling assets to reduce debts and trying to raise $300M in capital. They need $2B for the mill. Despite promises, no potential funder has been named. See
http://afr.com/home/login.aspx?EDP://20080821000030214802§ion=news
(Sorry most of the article is behind AFR firewall)
Also a court just ruled against them, ordering them to pay $50K in costs to the Greens when their threatened civil damages actions came to nothing. See
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/20/2341372.htm
If it looks like a dead project, smells like a dead project, and has the balance shet of a dead project then its probably a ….
Also will all those who previously defended this turkey and still think the pulp mill makes financial sense please raise their hands?
Well timing is everything! I just saw another article that trading on Gunns shares has been halted! See
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/21/2342155.htm?section=australia
This time Gunns have named a potential funder, Södra, a big Swedish timber corporation. I find this curious. First there is no mention of it on Södra’s own website. See:
http://www.sodra.com/en/Media–news/
Second, all Scandinavian countries have very strict environmental laws on timber logging and pulp processing. I’d be very surprised if Gunns EIS would allow it to meet Swedish, Norwegian or Finnish standards. I wonder if Sodra know the history of this project?
Either way, it seems that the only way the mill will proceed now is if a significant chunk of it becomes foreign owned as well. Brilliant! This mill is a loser on every angle. Why can’t they just admit they were wrong?
If otherwise inteligent people in ‘oz’ actualy put time into significant research into th US candidates actual policys (not there ‘geek’ policy web sites) , they’d be horified to find there’s actualy a choice between a Liberal party Turnbull and a Consevative Howard
Both will hurt ‘oz’ on trade and badly in our pockets , th three fair dinkum ‘left’ possiblities (Gore , Clinton , Edwards) all would hav made A positive policy diference somewhere beit trade or otherwise , but ar not in race
Water (lack of & its future increasing cost) is a new additional hurdle for our farming Industry , competing with US Govt subsidised agriculure exports , and both Yankee candidates increasing ‘protectionism against ‘oz’ farmers is now another farmer’s hurdle
Kevin07 problem is time to restructure water after Howard’s neglact to give our frmers a chnce against unfair US trade agricultural policys
Mr X calls on the Ruddster and Wong to intervene. Why can’t Rudd cut back the Queenlander’s water licences???
Independent Senator Nick Xenophon likened the water take to putting four starving men in a room with a loaf of bread and having one eat it all before throwing his mates the crumbs.
Senator Xenophon also called on the federal government to intervene and ensure the equitable sharing of water along the river system.
“I want them to do the right thing by the entire river system,” he said.
“It’s not right that you have one part of the river system that is in virtual flood and the other part that is going to die.
“That, to me, is not what a river system should be about.”
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24216470-5006301,00.html
Ron
Yes, that is why I personally preferred Edwards or Clinton to Obama. I still hope Obama wins because McCain is worse and I desperately want to see the republicans kicked out. But I agree that Obama cannot possibly keep all his promises. The very midwestern states where he is so popular are going to demand that he protect them from foreign competitors, including us. The US is in such an economic mess that whoever wins is going to have to do things that are internationally unpopular to keep the local voters happy.
Ron
I’m not going to let you get away with that. Hillary repeatedly said how she opposed NAFTA (which Bill brought in) and wanted American jobs protected.
Diogenes, check out the CSIRO work.
Condamine-Balonne key findings by scenario
• Average surface water availability under the historical climate is
1363 GL/yr. At the current level of development 722 GL/yr (or 53%)
of this is diverted for use. This is an extremely high level of use.
Current monitored groundwater use is 160 GL/yr or 18% of total
water use.
• The recent (1997 to 2006) climate is similar to the long-term
average climate.
• The best estimate (or median) climate change by 2030 would
reduce average surface water availability by 8% and would reduce
the volume of water diverted for use within the region by 4%.
• Future development of plantation forestry is expected to be
negligible and the small projected growth in farm dam capacity is
expected to have a very minor impact on river inflows. Groundwater
extraction is expected to decrease in the future.
http://www.csiro.au/org/Condamine-BalonneOverviewMDBSY.html
Ron @ 218
1. LOL at your suggestion that I am ‘pretending that there is no drought on’. What a hoot! I would suggest that unlike all, or most, of the other bloggers on this site, the drought is actually costing me income. It has also hit other members of my extended family very, very hard as has the gross mismanagement of water by successive governments of both stripes.
2. I take it from your response above that you think that what is happening in Queensland is an example of successful water management by a labour government? How long do they have to be in before they consider themselves accountable for what they are doing? I am sure that the NSW and SA labour governments would find that interesting.
4. I would appreciate it if you didn’t verbal me on being a closet member of the Green’s party. I am not. If you follow my posts carefully you will see that I have given some fairly swinging criticisms of Green’s policy. I reserve my right to discuss issues from a personal point of view, free from any party allegiance. I am attracted to competent governments of whatever colour, and generally rate Brumby as competent. (You appear to find that hard to believe?) My approach is quite enjoyable actually, because, I don’t have to get glued on to untenable party political positions.
5. Do you think the Victorian Government has problems with overall water management? No? I do. We have known for over two centuries that we live in a country of droughts and flooding rains. Yet, the Victorian Government let a drought catch them unprepared. I know that party political issues are bound up in all this, but the first step in fixing problems is acknowledging that previous handling has failed, and taking some accountability for it.
6. Water management institutions, water consumption patterns, water infrastructure, water pricing and water policies processes are a national disgrace and have generated a crisis in the Murray/Darling. The crisis is economic, social and environmental. My criticism of the state labour governments is that they have been contributors on their watch to this state of affairs. I have previously acknowledged that they have inherited a lot of their problems from libnat governments of the past. I have also previously criticized Howard for his performance on water, which was also a disgrace. No-one is squeaky clean on this one.
7. My criticism of the Rudd Government is that after a decade in Opposition, it aims to develop a plan for the MDB by 2011. What’s all the hurry?
8. My praise (now and previously) for the Rudd Government is that it is expanding the quantum and scope of the buyback mechanism. My criticism (now and in the past) of the Howard Government that it did not adopt this policy. A bit hard to implement now that the system is running on empty, but the settings are about right.
9. I am happy to continue this discussion with you as long as we can both stick to discussing the issues rather than trying to label each other and making assumptions based on the labels.
Diogenes/Ron
Sorry good point Diogenes I forgot the NAFTA promise. Clinton was no better than Obama on protectionism of farm industries. I preferred her to Obama for other reasons but Edwards was the only candidate that I saw improving this situation. As I said though, its a bit academic, whoever wins will do the same thing.
Diogenes
You’ve asserted sometting i did not say , then argued against your own misrepresention of my words Suggest go back and read my 2nd paragraph
Th bloke is a phoney , A ronald reagan orarator but with even less substance wthan Ronaldo , and other is a maverick , both flip flop often within same day , botb will severely hurt ‘oz’ farmers and exporters
my 2nd paragraph demonstrated in th broad comparison of those 2 vs th 3 fair dinkum ‘left’ type politcans listed , and I stand by those commnets because those 3 pollies actual policys suport my comments
Ron
To suggest Obama is more protectionist than Hillary is just not supported by Hillary’s own comments. She attacked Obama for being too “free trade” and exporting US jobs overseas if he got in. Australian farmers are going to be stuffed no matter whoever got in, as the US economy is tanking and it’s populist to become protectionist when the economy looks bad.
Diogenes, the CSIRO had this summary for the Queensland Border Rivers area of their report. Wonder what Springborg makes of all this?
• There is a high level of surface water diversion in the Border Rivers
region which has reduced end-of-system flows and the reliability of
supply.
• A high level of groundwater development near the Dumaresq River is
expected to reduce both groundwater levels and streamflow in the
future.
• Climate change is expected to reduce surface water availability by
about 10%.
• Projected groundwater use for 2030 unlikely to be sustainable and
would further reduce streamflow; reductions would be most apparent
in periods of low flow..
I think I’ll give up on this caper the more one reads the more damning the figures get. This is also from the Border Rivers findings.
• Farm dam volume projected to increase by 13 GL
• 85% in NSW (14% above current farm dam volume)
• minor impact: 1% reduction in average annual runoff
• Projected additional 12 GL/y of groundwater extraction in the
modelled area of the Border Rivers Alluvium GMU
• this would remove another 9 GL/year from the river
• unsustainable – large reductions in groundwater levels
• Groundwater use in the rest of NSW is projected to increase nearly
6x overall and 27x in the New England Fold Belt GMU
• would lead to 30 GL/y loss in tributary streamflow
• Additional groundwater use and additional farm dams would reduce
surface water availability by 22 GL/y
• 55% due to farm dams 45% due to additional GW use
• GW use 28% of total water use on average and 67% in driest year
223
Diogenes Says:
I think the two candidates in the US should just cut the crap and make each other their running mate.
He he.
Steve @ 235 and 236
It really is a disgrace. Let’s all hope that Rudd rises to the challenge.
Cossie has repeated he won’t be challenging for the leadership. He wants it handed to him obviously. Make him earn it Brendan.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24218400-601,00.html
You get the feeling Cossie is protecting Brendan from Malcolm. All Brendan has to do now is not call for a leadership spill because Malcolm won’t dare challenge while Cossie is there.
We the amigos could be right again as it looks like Obama may needs Hillary to win office. There is no doubt the tide has turned against Obama. If I were Hillary, i would say NO. You created the mess, you fix it.
http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/20/obama-in-need-of-a-game-changer/
There is no doubt Obama is in trouble unfortunately. Bringing in Hillary is worth a shot but it won’t necessarily do the trick. A black man and a woman on the one ticket. Two firsts. I would like to see it personally but I’m not sure the Americans would. Pity.
Steve @ 235
Thinking about your posts some more, a couple of observations, and trying not to get too depressed about all the water buggerups:
1. On farm storages tend to be shallow and the ratio of evaporation to stored water tends to be high. While water may become so expensive that people will avoid on-farm storage, there has to be a policy question about why people should be allowed to do it at all. One ray of hope on this horizon is some plastic stuff or other that creates a surface film on dam water and reduces evaporation by a huge amount. In prep, but likely to be commercially available before too long. And for the environmentalists, it does not affect oxygen content of the water, allowing normal use of the water by aquatic life. Cross fingers on that one. It would be a useful government initiative to fund speeded up use of this stuff once the trials have been completed, hint, hint. It will be commercial, but the Government could make a big difference for a small government outlay in speeding uptake…
2. the overuse of groundwater is fairly endemic and is going to be a major part of the challenge. It is a worldwide problem. The relationship between groundwater and surface water in the MDB is in general still imperfectly understood. But recent understanding has tended to demonstrate that there is a much higher direct relationship than previously understood.
3. I suspect that there is a serious problem with the Qld rural/regional bureaucracy being too close to the irrigators - I would be willing to bet that there have been no, or very few, prosecutions for criminal activities relating to water use. It is the same mob who used to hand out clearing licences like confetti. Any general solution to the MDB which does not take this governance issue into effect is going to tend to fail.
4. One of the downstream effects of reduced flows, particularly during extreme low flows, is that the salt content will zoom. Adelaide is looking down the barrel on that one. With zero flow out of the Murray mouth, the mobilized salt slugs have nowhere to go and will concentrate in the lower reaches of surface waters. Adelaide drinking water will increasingly go above World Health benchmarks. In some cases, they will also back flow into groundwater basins if the groundwater levels are lowered through pumping, potentially damaging ground water resources as well.
5. In relation to your question: The perps here are the natural supporters of Springborg. I have not heard Springborg on the topic, but I can sort of guess what he thinks about. With a bit of luck it won’t matter what he thinks. But this means that what matters is what labour does. I hope it gets it right.
6. One of the major issues with any resolution of the MDB is where in the system the water ends up being used. A gig used downstream for irrigation has a much higher evaporation cost than a gig used upstream, if the gigs are transported in anything other pipes. Efficiency and logic would say that the the SA irrigation systems should be migrated as far upstream as practicable - but this would not be very palatable to SA irrigators, towns or pollies.
7. The truly frightening thing about it all is that the same mob who stuffed the MDB have now set their sights on the northern rivers.
Cossie said No. as we all know. The Libs are now in a a deep pile of you know what.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/costello-wont-challenge-for-liberal-leadership-20080821-3zce.html
#241. Zogby poll
IIRC, they show consistent bias in favour of the Repubs (in the same way that Morgan does for Labor here).
Swan is looking good now that the NAB has said they will lower interest rates if the RBA does. Whether he had anything to do with it or not the fact that he has been putting the pressure on recently verbally and with his coming changes makes it look as though he has. He is out there today saying the other banks should follow the NAB’s lead.
Diogenes , well done made an omlett scrambled upside down with muddy waters of red herrings combining 2 differnt points I made , first on trade vs ‘oz’ farmers
On trade , we will get screwed by both curent US candidates , particularlty in agriculture for our farmers (plus manufactured goods) , both ar long term hard ‘protectionists’ , dump them both for ‘oz’ Quite separately as an issue in other policys in reality Obama is a Liberal Turnbull and McCain is a conservative Howard
Broad comparsion I gave was th only fair dinkum ‘left’ type options were Gore , Clinton & Edwards and there actual policys support that description , I was happy with all 3 , so by comparison curent candidates dumpmaster material Specificaly on trade , Billy Clinton fought politcaly hard for free trade NAFTA , she publicly suported him , Gore VP strongly supported Billy , Edwards less so , Edwards & Clinton in this race hardened up there protectionism stanses Upshot is probably we would probably get raped anyway but there’s some spark there in those ‘left’ pollies history , whereas th current 2 there’s no hope/no spark , just pretty fluff
So even in Trade , one may hope based on history of 3 ‘left’ people I listed , but importantly in every other respect including supporting Kyoto & suporting universal healthcare Gore Clinton & Edwards ar geenuine ‘left’ type pollies , current two oppose both and ar not ‘left’ types , despite all th nice flip flop pretty words both sprout
Kevin RUDD and our economy already hav enough hurdles without now additional guarantee our farmers and manufacturer exporters being further ripped off by US subsidisys by both firm curent protectionist candidates
Costello was always more of a bully and so could monster the banks into keeping rates in line with RBA rates. But that could not have gone on forever–the banks have legal obligations to their shareholders.
Swan is coming on well but he needs to make changing mortgagor much easier and let RBA or FF take up peoples mortgages which would provide real competition again.
The Finnigans @ 244
So, what part of ‘No’ don’t the liberals understand?
“There is no doubt Obama is in trouble unfortunately”
Oh, no, don’t tell me I am going to be right afterall. I was the first to declare on this site that if the Dems go with Obama or Hillary, McCain will win the presidency.
Maybe we should keep a look out for any suicides on Gilligan’s Island yet LOL.
On the home front, Cossie is talking about the economy. The first Newspoll or ACN after he becomes leader is going to be HUGE!
Don’t worry about the banks not passing on any rate cuts. They will. There are mergers being planned so they are going to be nice and behave!
Gary
Think Wayne Swan deserves an anormous plaudit regarding rates Banks set a presedent of ‘premium’ rise last time , money is dear , there excuse still there and his public stanse has saved mortgage borrowers
Unfortunately , banks can do what they want , and even there ‘public announsement they won’t keep some of there claimed overseas higher cost of funds , implys there future right to do so But at least Wayne Swan has obviuosly done hard yards behind doors , rather than cossies 15 second mock outrage , befor he went for his capachino Alos Swan has made bar hardar to break in future
Centre,
The latest EV survey is telling the story very clearly. Obama’s support is just drifting away.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Aug20.html
Centre, I said right from the start that if the Dems were mad enough to nominate Obama that McCain would win, and I still expect to be proved correct. I don’t know when you first said it, but I’d be surprised if it was before me.
I of course disagree with you about Clinton. She would have defeated McCain easily. The country wants to elect a Dem president, but only if they are given a candidate with national security credentials, of which Obama has none. His empty, self-congratulatory campaign, culminating in his incredibly stupid and vainglorious Berlin speech, has been a disaster so far, and McCain settled any doubts about his capacity at the Saddleback debate. McCain is now within a few points in the polls, he is ahead in key states like FL, OH and MO, and is closing the gap in others like MI and IA.
In terms of Australia, we would be much better off with McCain, who has good free trade credentials, although with a protectionist Dem Congress we will still get shafted.
Adam I’m not to sure about who was first. Maybe you are right. William would have all past records anyway.
SNIP: Centre, perhaps you didn’t mean for it to come out the way it did, but your comment here was in highly dubious taste - PB
250 Centre - I wouldn’t claim victory on either of those two fronts just yet if I were you. The one thing people do remember is when you get it wrong afterall the boasting.
Does anybody know whether the polls are factoring in any changes to the pattern of turn out? In particular, would a significantly increased turnout of African American voters make enough difference?
pollster.com is showing an entierly different picture. I’d say it’s somewhere in between the two, Obama still with a handy lead.
243 Boerwar, we might be looking at the stage being set for the first Rudd v Pineapple Party dust-up if the Nats attitude from the past hasn’t changed.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/qld-nats-tip-out-murraydarling-plan/2007/07/29/1185647729502.html?s_cid=rss_national
Hav always thought it would be close over there and it is , whereas with at least 2 of my 3 preferred fair dinkum ‘left’ type options (Gore Clinton & Edwards) those ‘left’ pollies would ALREADY hav massive poll leads over McCain right now …simply because people want to get of th hideous fool Bush
Reality is voters ar seeing 2 candidates appearing not far apart whereas on Gilligans Obama is a ’savour’ , Gore & Clinton old style dirty politcs , and Mccain as Bush 111 incarnate
My view was Gore Clinton Edwards ar fair dinkum ‘left’ , Obama a phony Turnbull opposing universl healthcare & Kyoto ratication , and McCain a maverick Howard ( but NOT a Bush 111)
Biggest impact will be trade , where Adam & I share diferent view on McCain but we both agree Obama is clearly a firm protectionist McCain has a history of doing deals with Democrats to get legislation passed , is maverick , can be very consevative & expressed freetrade & protection , & presently Obama has forsed him to make more protectionist coments
Democrats control both houses of Congress , but Presidents still carrry weight , but given both candidates recent comments & th contracting US economy all adds up to our farmers etc getting ripped off even worse than current
Glitz and glitter of razamatzz US politcs nad our Kevin has to deal with these
It would be interesting to see if the ex-Liberal contingent of the Pineapple Party will be prepared to die in the trenches with hayseed hanging from the mouth defending irrigation rights. Somehow I don’t think so.
This name Liberal & Nats names business is becoming clearer to me by day between NT and Q’ld
In NT we hav “Country Liberal Party” , wishing to be “Liberal Country Party” but didn’t get around to changing name before election Whilst in Q’ld till June we had “National Party” and a seperate “Liberal Party” Now we hav a merged “Liberal Country Party” plus a proposed new “Liberal Party”
Now when they all get to Canberra they will all hav separate Party meetings , Qld ‘Liberal’ members of th Q’ld ” Liberal Country Party” will attend Federal meetings of “Liberal Party” together with ‘Qld “new Liberal party” members But Qld Nats members of th Qld “Liberal Country Party” will attend Federal National Party” meetings
Then dooza will be a subsequent combined “Coalition” Party meeting , folowing such meetings where such meetings ahv decided opposite policy views , what with Vic Libs , Vic Nationals , NT Country Liberal Party , Q’ld new Liberals , Q’ld Liberal Coutry Party…everyone with a diferent coloured “Party” tag for identification
The bad news for the Pineapple Party is that next week both the Federal and Queensland parliaments sit. I think that any Pineapple Party members can expect the Murray Darling Issue to meet them as soon as parliament gathers at both state and Federal level. It is sure to be a lively welcome to the new party.
In NT we hav “Country Liberal Party” , wishing to be “Liberal Country Party” but didn’t get around to changing name before election
They are changing to ‘Country Liberals’, not ‘Liberal Country Party’.
why should qld. be punished for the southern states wasting our water?
The water is in qld. started in qld. and the southern states wasted it .
Do not blame us for your inefficeny.
Re the Qld pinching water garbage.
It rained in Qld - the amount of water agreed on for environmental flows was exceeded. The irrigators took their legal entitlements.
The water restrictions in Brisbane were reduced from level 6 to level 5 as dam levels reached 40%.
This is a non issue.
265 madk:
Tensions over water scarcity in the basin were further inflamed by suggestions of illegal water diversions in Queensland, with South Australian Premier Mike Rann labelling such moves as “treacherous” and an “act of terrorism against the Australian people”.
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/murraydarling-crops-in-doubt-20080815-3wfk.html
Adam and Centre, since it’s Olympics time. We will let the two of you to fight out who said what first and when.
But it was the three Amigos who manned and defended the fort until the last drop. While the rest of you have conveniently disappeared back to the Hacienda.
It was 300 Vs 3 Amigos, until it got too hot for the 300s that they have to exile themselves to the G Island and continuing their one hand clappin’. No suicide yet on G Island but panic has set-in among the Lord of the Flies.
They are changing to ‘Country Liberals’, not ‘Liberal Country Party’.
remove the ‘o’ in country and maybe you have something truthful…
Howard with pressure from Nats was not interested in conservation regarding MD Basin , cutting back big irrigators & mostly a CC denier States for years wanted one Authority to mange MD , but rodent listed to Farming Federation and Nats
Now all of a sudden in middle of a drrought & CC , Rudd is suposed to perform miracles overnite
Whilst that headline seeker Mr X fills SA people with false propaganda of non existent MD water capacity that should be sent downstream Why does Mr X not tell th truth MD Commission audit says there’s only 4,800 Gl stored out of 24,000 Gl capacity , & there advice is thats insufficent to send downstream re environment etc etc
ruawake
First of all, there is well documented evidence that Queenslanders have illegally diverted water. Secondly, your comment “The irrigators took their legal entitlements” demonstrates the problem. Beatty gave out much too generous water allowances and said “Fcuk You!” to the rest of Australia. That’s why we need Rudd to show some leadership and take over the MDB.
Diogenes
So if it floods in SA and Qld is in drought will they pump the water to Qld?
And don’t give me Cubby station BS it was a dustbowl 18 months ago.
“Queensland ‘most in need of nuke power’”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24219808-26103,00.html
He said the ban on uranium mining in Queensland was contentious.
“There is no logic I can see for Queensland to not develop uranium reserves,” he said
ziggy loves pushing his nuclear barrow.
(sorry william posted this earlier on the wrong thread)
Before people start to feel angry about those deceitful dole bludgers not going out and getting a job for what physical or mental disabilities they may have, take a look at the management of investment bank Babcock & Brown.
Their share price has fallen from around $33+ to $2+ in the past year. Their great CEO with no obvious physical or mental disability (like dole bludgers) walks away with around $14 mil a year. Top-End-Of-Town shareholders are of course not given a leg up (like dole bludgers) but manage to dump the stock before they crash. And honest (not like dole bludgers) credit agencies maintain a AAA credit rating on the company.
So what do we hear from Brenda about the real losers in our society - more political point scoring dole bashing. I want action taken on the real criminals, NOW, Brenda you useless dope!
ruawake
If we could pump SA’s excess in a flood to Qld in a drought we would.
Fortunately, we have voted in Mr X and we’ll vote in another “like-minded” senator at the next election to keep the balance of power so we make Rudd see our point of view quite effectively.
Diogenes
#271
“Ruawake
First of all, there is well documented evidence that Queenslanders have illegally diverted water”
How many people , when , what evidence , & crucially how much water diverted
…hope your sourse is not th credible Mr X ,
Gus
do not know Ziggy would say that , no Labor government will agree to nuclear power Presume thats why Garnaut’s Report was so lite on th subject
Thanks Just Me , “They NT are changing to ‘Country Liberals’, not ‘Liberal Country Party’ , so you’re saying in NT its ‘Country Liberals’ & Qld ‘Liberal Country
Party’
To check on the river, scientists have used powerful satellite imagery normally used by the Defence Department.
“They clearly demonstrate that there’s been development on the flood plain after the moratorium in June 2001,” Professor Richard Kingsford from the University of New South Wales said, which has been involved in the monitoring.
“The Queensland Government’s assured us that basically they’ve approved structures because they were built before that date.
“But our imagery quite clearly shows that we could only find three storages and essentially there are a whole lot of channels there that have been built post-2001 and this essentially breaches that agreement.”
Paroo satellite snaps anger Murray-Darling farmers
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/15/2336025.htm?section=justin
Why on earth do the CLP cling to this dumb name? They are not a rural party - all the outback seats in the NT are Indigenous-majority or close to it and elect Labor members. They are a Darwin/Alice Springs/Katherine party, and they should be the NT branch of the Liberal Party.
Having read today’s offerings at Real Clear Politics and Electoral Vote, it’s even worse for Obama than I said above. Several national polls now have McCain in front, and EV’s big map has them neck-and-neck. The only Bush states that EV now has Obama winning are NM and IA. I agree that Obama will probably win NM, but I don’t think he’ll win IA the way the upper Midwest is going. Obama is only just ahead in MI and MN and could well lose them (helped in MN by this moron the Dems have picked for the Senate). VA is still shown as a tie, but it’s a long shot for Obama.
Of course, it’s not too late for the Dems to ditch The One and nominate Clinton, who can actually win the election. Obama does not have a majority of pledged delegates, and the supers can vote as they please. Things at Denver could get verrrrry interrrresting once all the supers are under one roof and start swapping notes.
Diogenes, this is an interesting view on the Murray Darling.
http://www.sauer-thompson.com/archives/opinion/2008/08/water-mismanage.php
That collecton of States would till reconfirm my feel it will end up a knife edge , If he’s just in front in blue MI & MN (27 ev) they’d be decisive ultimateley , and not sure where they were 10 weeks out in 2004 , but both ended up nite biters at 51/48
I ran that Denver line firmly from March to July to my chirping flock of 30 odd daily , based on every single electability criteria incl demographics showing HRC would win potus easily , but there politcal logic was submerged in there adulation
My faith however was shaken from many sourses , including ex Mayor Koch view , of mass afro american walkout from th Party ‘we,’ve been robbed’…again should he be rolled
Interesting , Kevin Rudd could hav , but did not make effort to meet him personally earlier in year & only spoke by phone
Finns, I thought there were 4 Amigos?
Madk and Ruawake
Regarding the Murray Darling, the fact that rain fell in Qld is not a defence to Cubby station water licenses. The point is that the natural status quo of where the water would flow to has been changed. That creates a disadvantage to downstream property that would normally receive some of that water. If this had been done within Queensland it would be actionable by teh downsream property owners. I understand there is a general principle in Qld law that if you change a natural drainage path you are responsible for negative downstream effects.
The reason why Cubby station gets away with what it does is that unfortunately the law doesn’t extend across the border. That is a function of our disfunctional Federal system that never dealt with these problems. Its the same reason why NSW could erect breakwaters across the Tweed River mouth that disrupted sand flow onto south Gold Coast beaches - there was no way for Qld to seek compensation, or make them fix it. I grew up in Qld but I’d still say that what Qld is doing over water entitlements is wrong in principle. The Cubby licenses were issued back in the Joh era without any adequate assessment of what could be sustainably removed from the MD system.
William I was only stirring.
After the first ballot all delegates are free to vote for whomever they like. They could then nominate their strongest ticket, which would of course be Gore-Obama. Hillary could be promised either Sec of State of the Supreme Court. But I dream… I fear in reality they will stay the course with the Titanic.
Did anyone see Clarke and Dawe tonght? It was on the ratings agencies and very good. They made a not too subtle reference to a rating agency rating sub-prime mortgages as safer than the Commonwealth Bank!? Anyone know which agency?
agree , think Ed Koch type view is too potent a ‘threat’ , with a double edged sword against (electorally) that candidate benefiting
Irony , i did an analysis of Super delegates decisons from March 2 (before Texas) to last one in June HRC won those last 12 weeks as voters started to understand issues , won 9 of last 16 States , won approx 506 to 475 delegates from those 16 elections , and massively won popular vote then (falling ultimately 2% short) BUT Superdelegates split about 75% to Obama , in defiance of election results (would hav expected momentum of Supers to go HRC way not in reverse )
Irony is , heard same afro ammerican ‘persuasion’ was trhen used , to which i posted to th ‘ adorers’ , well an hispenic candidate can use his ‘ethnic’ status next time using same method
Kevin07 ’s problem will be want he stands for with CC , Kyoto , trade etc
Hispanic or Latino origin 14.8% more spread , black 12.8% more concentrated , but principal
Socrates “Anyone know which agency?’
don’t know Socrates , but Standard & Poors rating agencies positive ratings of some now failed Institutions from prime morgage fiasco wouldn;t help there credibility
How was Clarke and Dawe tonight , watched Footy Show instead , worth looking via Internet ?
The Murray Darling has jumped up on the list of Mayo by election surprises.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24215631-5006787,00.html
Xenophon supporting Dianne Bell will be a big boost for her campaign. Bell has been a solid supporter of action on the River Murray including a long involvement with Ngarrindjeri - Aboriginal traditional owners of the lower Murray area including the Lakes and Coorong. Of all the groups who have lost out with governments stuffing up the River Murray over many decades, the Ngarrindjeri have been one of the big losers with their cultural associations with the area being regularly ignored and trampled on.
A win for Bell, the Greens or even Labor independent would be a great result for people concerned about the cynicism of both Liberal and Labor governments thinking that milking the Murray of more and more water wouldn’t cause environmental problems and economic problems for irrigators.
Costello’s got it worked out. Our economic problems started the Sunday after Labor was elected. Oh, and they’re responsible for the world’s economic difficulties too.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/costello-issues-challenge-to-party-faithful-20080821-3zll.html
and of course Cossie’s history of good judgement is impeccable , especialy his believing ‘rodent’ for 10 years that th ‘rodent’ would step down for cossie to take over , as he promised to do in 94
.
I just wish Mr X , instead of chasing cheap headlines for his self interst , actualy came out with a fully costed MD plan that included auditd figures of MD capacity and storage levels & projected rainfalls….as a counter to COAG’s comprehensive one agreed at 3/7/08 Meeting & already operational , but no he’ll get elected for 2 terms , talk alot , make SA people aggrieved , and achieve zero
Adam @ 285 says:
In actual fact, the delegates have a free vote on the first ballot as well.
And for South Australians , listen carefully to Mr X and see relative to th the Lakes and Coorong , if he ACTUALY nominates how many giga litres should be released now , how many by month over next 12 months , where specificaly that water will come from in MDB , and at what consequence to th areas from which it is taken
Mr X will not say because he does NOT know , truth is th required water does not exist Magnatude of disaster of th MDB has been grossly understated by him and others for politcal gain , but it was spelled out at COAG meeting Reports & decisons , and its a disaster including that only 4,800 gl is stored against a capacity of 24,000 Gl , need rain
It will surprise no one. Xenophon is interested only in himself and whatever it takes to make headlines to be re-elected. The great benefit of being independent is you can say whatever the latest popular thing is, regardless.
Given the state of the Senate he is going to get lots of opportunity to big note himself. He doesn’t have to put money where his mouth is because he ain’t in a major party that has to produce policies that are equitable and don’t wreck the economy.
David Walsh
“In actual fact, the delegates have a free vote on the first ballot as well.”
As he wn delegates from State primary elections 52% to 48% , and popular vote was even (depending on calc) , but he is electorally less electable , would you expect majority of Supers to overturn his presuptive status
No, Ron, I would not expect the Convention to flick the candidate who has flown the party’s banner as the presumptive nominee since early June. I was merely correcting an earlier statement.
For what it’s worth, the Democrats made the first ballot a free vote after the debacle of 1980; when Ted Kennedy embarrassed Carter by taking the fight all the way to the convention.
Ron,
Depends if they want to win or not!
Dario @ 258 earlier alluded to pollster.com as another source of polling info which might paint a better picture for Obama. However, the key is the trend and there is certainly a drift away trend from Obama.
The EV link I provided @253 also has a comparison with Kerry v Bush at the same time in 2004 election. At this stage Kerry was well in front.
Of course, no two elections are the same. But, I’d say there are worrying signs for the audacity and hype team.
Thanks David ,
my view now also caused in part by race & sex of 2 candidates , black caucus hav overtly made threats we heard as long ago as before Ohio Primary , and conversely if in reverse ‘female’ block would react simlilarly
GG
Polls hav not moved suffientley to overcome my factor mentioned above Th fact Obama happens to be regarded as ‘afro american’makes it almost impossible Fact that HRC is ‘female’ adds further complexity
Suspect had both been white AND both male , then suspect Denver may hav been a possibility for change
Unfortunately US method of picking there Party’s candidate is fundamentaly flawed , and for first time thrown up a 50/50 candidate chance of winning (Obama) vs from same Party on every Poll & demographic an alternative who has a 95% chance of winning (HRC)
To win 52% to 48% of th pledged delegates from Primary Electons , what Obama did 1/ using Internet and College Campus’s was organize to win delegates from unwinnable ‘red’ mid west/west Repub States 2/ use th same ‘method’ to get numbers turning up at Caucus Primary electons of 2 hour politcal meetings in a dozen States to win delegates 3./ win southern mostly unwinnable ‘red’ Repub States Primarys by getting over 90% of ‘black’ vote to win delegates 4/ won affluent blue blood afffluent ‘liberal’ Democrat strongholds states to win delegates 5/ two huge delegates avaialbel States FL & MI HRC won but States were disputatly ‘disqualified’
Whereas HRC won almost everyone of th ‘marginal to win’ States Result being Obama got 52% of delgates (but is signifantly less electable/ , see aboce where he won his delgates) vs HRC 48% (won where it counted to win ‘red’ States off Repub to win potus Thats th Party organizations fault , and Obama ‘played ‘th system , by 2% margin to win
LESSON FOR “OZ” , always hav your politcans pick your Leader , finally they will get it right
Boerwar
Your extensive post on Vic Govt politcal & economic MDB status replying to my one , has ben replied to on other thread
Ron @ 302
Yep. Thank you.
Amigos
There has been a monster betting plunge on Hillary for running mate. She has shortened from 10/1 to 3/1 over the last few weeks. I think we find out in the next 24 hours.
On Mr X, everyone in SA knows he is a shameless self-promoter and populist. His achievements are very minor compared to the noise he makes. But he does make a lot of noise and is giving voice to the frustrations of many South Aussies which makes him a potent force. You are all going to have to get used to him as he’s not going anywhere.
You may remember my criticism of Rudd using Maywald’s pathetic line “The Government cannot make it rain”. Well, she’s at it again. She got pulverised on ABC radio and can up with this gem.
She didn’t have an answer to why Queensland took a record amount of water out of the MDB during “the worst drought in Australian history” (Mike Ranns words).
Water security Minister Karlene Maywald lashes out on ABC radio
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24222885-5006301,00.html
For the first time in my life I agree with Bill Heffernan. Queensland is doling out water licences to farmers and then the Federal Government will buy them back. WTF is going on?
“Australian taxpayers ought to be alert to the fact that licences are about to be issued, which will then have to be bought back at their expense,” Senator Heffernan said.
‘Disgraceful’ water licence may earn $100m
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24221540-5013169,00.html
If Mr X has managed to stir up this much feeling amongst the eastern staters, then he’s got my vote again in six years time, that’s for sure. It’s important that he keeps the MDB as a front page issue, because it’s been swept under the rug for too long.
Diogenes @ 304 - I’ve long thought that the Rann government was the worst Labor one in history, but I’m starting to wonder if it might not be eclipsed by Rudd.
That Wong apparently didn’t have a problem with these water licenses speaks volumes. As does Gillard’s ruling out the return of student fees even though she knows their abolition is costing both students and universities.
We are heading for turbulent times and the last thing we need is a federal government that lacks backbone. Unfortunately, it’s becoming increasingly clear that on many fronts that this one does. Sure, the Lib/Nats would be doing even less, but isn’t that why they were voted out?
Mr X is UNKNOWN in East , Mr X causes zro feelings in East , South Australians ar being suckered by his self promotion He is as important as Pauline Hanson
Might be time to start pricing backyard nuke shelters
The Risk of the Zinger
“Let’s put aside the fact that McCain’s top foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, has in fact been a lobbyist for Georgia. In his own feisty comments in recent months, McCain encouraged Georgians to believe America would back them up in a crisis. That expectation was naive, and it was wrong to encourage it. It was especially wrong to give a volatile leader such as Saakashvili what he evidently imagined was an American blank check.
….Now, after the Georgia war, McCain should learn that lesson: American leaders shouldn’t make threats the country can’t deliver or promises it isn’t prepared to keep. The rhetoric of confrontation may make us feel good, but other people end up getting killed.”
McCain is also a friend of Saakashvili, who has a reputation for being a thug, further muddying the waters.
Diogenes @ 304 and MayoFeral @ 306
Time for a Royal Commission into water management in Australia.
Cubby has some sort of Queensland state ticket to divert water. I am assuming that the water trading licence would sit on top of that, and the that actual volume won’t be any different. (Head of the Cubby Group is ex Queensland treasurer deLacey).
The thing that will be different will be that the trading licence will make Cubby water more accessible to the buyback, and incidentally, also more accessible to folk from South Oz. If so, the issues management side of it has been atrocious.
Just guessing, mind you.
Gary Morgan has decided who’s fault it is that his Polls have a credibility problem.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/email-sackings-for-56-20080821-3zlm.html
No going to let you get away with that nonsense Diogenes Worry about ethics of th democraticaly elected Georgian President whose country got invaded by a thuggish Russian army , rather than blame ‘no ticker’ Obama , whose p.ss weak response among others encouraged Putin that USA ar all bluster , and not a defender for a democracy (unless there’s oil underground)
Not going to let you get away with that nonsense Diogenes Worry about ethics of th democraticaly elected Georgian President whose country got invaded by a thuggish Russian army , rather than blame ‘no ticker’ Obama , whose p.ss weak response among others encouraged Putin that USA ar all bluster , and not a defender for a democracy (unless there’s oil underground)
Crikey, we very, very bad.
Umm, not sure which thread it should go on but Christian Kerr in todays AntiGG has a spray at bloggers, including one that had a thread ‘Kick the Media’.
According to this Christian, it turns out that bloggers live in echo chambers and are narrow minded, intolerant, incorrect, ignorant, anti-American, lacking in argumentation and utterly ignorant. But wait, there’s more. Bloggers don’t weigh evidence, are smug, and don’t analyse data. Bloggers are not into nuance and they repeat assertions endlessly in the tone of undergraduates. They are righteously indignant, sneeringly superior, lacking in humility, prone to conspiracy theories and sometimes, paranoid about catholics, zionists and US government conspiracies. And,gasp, they also don’t like the MSM!
Fortunately, according to Kerr, the MSM offers balance and fact.
New thread.