The Fairfax broadsheets today bring the latest ACNielsen poll of federal voting intention, showing Labor’s lead up to 55-45 compared with 54-46 last month. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 43 per cent with the Coalition down one point to 39 per cent. The poll also finds Peter Costello to be favoured as Liberal leader by 56 per cent of the 1400 respondents compared with 27 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 17 per cent for Brendan Nelson. In head-to-head terms, Costello leads Turnbull 49-35 and Turnbull leads Nelson 47-31. Worst of all for Nelson, his approval rating is down from 36 per cent to 31 per cent and his disapproval is up from 46 per cent to 53 per cent. Hat tip to poll watcher extraordinaire James J.
UPDATE: The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows Labor maintaining its lead of 58-42. Also featured are questions on pensions, industrial relations and Australia’s performance at the Olympics.
315 Comments
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Sorry, Ron, but 35% for the Libs ISN’T far too low.
I have faith they can go even lower…
charles + ron,
Didnt Bob Brown come out a couple of months ago and say someone attempted to bribe him over cross media ownership changes years ago.
MY question is if your suggestion as to principles true – why wasnt this matter reported to the police? Do you know?
“101
zoom Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Sorry, Ron, but 35% for the Libs ISN’T far too low.
I have faith they can go even lower… ”
so do I brother, so do I
Keep digging Eddy…don’t you think the dirt machines of the Major Parties would have had a good sniff around already.
Try another one.
You can do better than that.
On second thoughts, maybe you can’t.
ESJ,
The “Greens” fish are on the bite again. What bait do you use?
Diogenes @ 94. I’ve not followed S.A. at all really, so would not have a clue about whether or not, Rann is an egotistical number. I suppose all pollies have to have a robust ego, or you wouldn’t survive. Cojones, on the other hand, Costello don’t have. And there is a difference between being egotistical/narcissistic and having cojones. The LNP haven’t worked it out as yet. Giggle.
The truth GG the truth.
I recommend to all ” Salmon fishing in the Yemen” by Paul Torday. Read it and weep with pleasure.. Particularly recommended for those who post here or lurk.
ESJ,
You are a genius. I have never known “Greens ” to be lured by the truth.
Harry
I agree. The combination of lazy, egotistical, rude and gutless would be a first.
ESJ
I’m just about to read the section in the CIA history “Legacy of Ashes” on the Nixon years. I’ll let you know how he gets on…
In the days when the righteous ruled the land and God lived in Bennelong, I recall that the Greatest Treasurer on Earth entrusted a goodly proportion of the Future Fund to American Fund Managers.
Are those monies still in American hands, and how has that investment prospered?
Would we have been better off following Malcolm Fraser’s advice, or are aging public servants now destined to retire to a life of luxury due to the Tip Top Stragedy?
Anyone know?
For those still wondering where is Brendan, I have found him busking at a self awareness seminar.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMeub2NK_Fs
zoom
#101
“Sorry, Ron, but 35% for the Libs ISN’T far too low.
I have faith they can go even lower…”
I ‘ve just completely ditched my short sighted opinion Zoom , and I am going 100% with your faith my friend
Harry
” Salmon fishing in the Yemen” by Paul Torday
could there be red Herrings in those Yemen waters to fish for
Fulvio , thinkthey’v sunk just like alot of Chinese investments , althugh Chinese in past hav been more cautous taking less return and US Treasury As you imply monies could built alot of schools , hospitals and infrastucture instead of US Managers creaming fees
Fulvio 111
I don’t know about all of the FF investment but I recall reading recently that they were holding a lot in cash deposits at present which is very sensible. That cash has both held up liquidity in the local banking system and still earns interest rather than risking losses. AFAIK they had not posted a loss, which is a good result.
Not thanks to past or present government mind – the FF is run by people who know something about finance.
Here come the DD triggers:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/nelsons-battle-plan-oppose-at-every-turn/2008/08/18/1218911572783.html?page=2
That’s good to hear Socrates. But you’d think something which ties up so much of the Nations retirement investment would be more transparent, with regular official public reporting of outcomes.
I don’t read the financial papers much (well, to be honest, at all) but I’m sure I would have noted with interest any reported profit/loss statement if it had been published, and I’m also sure at least some of the media would have widely disclosed information if it was available
I also wonder at the logic (as opposed to the original idealogical obligation and desire to ingratiate) of the initial decision to place control of the funds monies in foreign hands.
Oh Dear, after nine months of doing nothing except dream of who could be their next leader, shadow cabinet is ‘bored’ and has began a new bout of dreaming about who could be the next leader.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24201664-952,00.html
William, NSW newspoll.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24203986-5006784,00.html
Latest on Mayo by election candidates.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24197127-5006787,00.html
Fulvio
To be fair, the FF does report regularly; its just that the MSM doesn’t always bother mentioning it unless there is something interesting. I found this document:
http://www.futurefund.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/2293/Portfolio_Update_300408_Approved.pdf
So they are reporting quarterly and up to 30 April 2008 their return in 2007/08 was +2.7%, well ahead of the negative returns most funds reported in 2007/08. Looks like Gary Costello and Vanguard are doing a good job.
Despite my cynicism of the Howard government’s wasteful spending and financial management generally, I have no complaint about the Future Fund. It was a sensible decision to prepare for future PS super liabilities and the management of it has been taken out of political hands and given to people who are competent with cash. Similar to the Queensland government’s approach with PS super (via QITC) and that state is now miles ahead financially as a result.
Henderson is off with the pixies again, this time on the play Gallipoli:
“Military debacle”… “devised with the best intentions”. Sound familiar?
I guess if it was a military debacle based on grave mistakes in both intelligence and generalship – although all done “with the best intentions” – then, gee Gerard, they really did die in vain, didn’t they? Their best intentions… our soldiers’ lives. Sounds about right.
Apparently there’s only one “correct” interpretation of Gallipoli, and the latest stage production does not conform to it. So pontificateth Gerard, anyway.
I’ve often thought that Howard’s obsession with Gallipoli was more about touting the idea of fighting Muslims on their own ground as the cannon fodder of a foreign protector, and hence to justify Iraq.
Henderson is still one of Howard’s greatest supporters. Gerard’s little dummy-spit this morning does not disabuse me of my suspicions regarding the Gallipoli Industry.
This is especially poignant when you consider that to prop up the “gallant defeat” schtik of Gallipoli, real existential battles like Kokoda (which we, uhm… won… no debacles there) were officially played down, pooh-poohed and outright trivialized by members of Howard’s government (e.g. Downer) and his tame appointees to the Australian War Memorial.
Kokoda was another close run thing too, not the battle… the politics. Old Churchill got us into the “military debacle” in Gallipoli in 1915, and tried to squeeze us into staying in North Africa in 1942. We could always win New Guinea back, it seems was the Old Man’s thinking, like Singapore. Luckily for us, Curtin was made of stern stuff and turned him down the second time, against the advice of… wait for it… Earl Page and Pig Iron Bob Menzies sitting on the Imperial War Cabinet in London. How’s that for “close to the action”?
No, no, no, no… say the revisionists. Kokoda was a Labor show, therefore it was all shabby politics, grandstanding and smoke-and-mirrors. We can’t have no steenkin Labor governments getting the credit for military successes. The Libs own national security, don’t y’know? “Gallipoli forever!”
But there was, however, thankfully one difference between Gallipoli and Iraq. Just about the only thing Howard got right regarding Iraq was that he kept our soldiers, in the main, out of the killing zones, thus minimizing both our own and Iraqi casualties at our hands. Quite a different reality compared to Gallipoli. Maybe it was the wheat we thought we could flog the Iraqis that caused us to tone down the mass killing side of things?
After all, they like the taste of Aussie wheat. Everybody knows that.
From Russian with love indeed. Apparently there is no movement at the station at Sweet Georgia Brown.
The Russians are simply following the template set down by the Americans in how to do “regime change” (simply substitute Iraq with Georgia and USA with Russia) and Nato in the Kosovo intervention (simple substitute Serbia with Georgia, Kosovo with South Ossetia and Nato with Russia).
As I understand it the Future Fund has not yet made any truly substantial investments.
They are very much below the radar in markets at the moment.
Socrates is right – they have huge amounts in cash deposits (still).
But when your mandate is to earn CPI+3% and you can do that in cash and Bank bills, why not?
Socrates,
That “update” is from 30 April. Hopefully the 31 July update will come out soon.
I also notice the “Latest News” on the front page includes documents in March as the latest “latest news”.
So their not exactly ear-bashing us!
Rates Analyst
Agreed it will be interesting to see where the FF eventually invest the cash. But given the current market, I am quite pleased they have not rushed in and made premature investments, when many funds have still to finish declaring their sub-prime losses. There has also been a considerable windfall benefit to our banking institutions by having that cash in hand when international markets are short of credit.
BTW I know this is an engineers view of the world, but to put “infrastructure bottlenecks” in perspective, here is a quote from a shipping industry website. I think it is pretty damming of the previous governments infrastructure spending record. bear in mind that the costs of queued up cargo ships runs into millions of dollars per day, and last year we exported several billion dollars less of minerals than we otherwise would have because of these capacity constraints. i.e. we couldn’t get the minerals out of our ports fast enough to satisfy customers who wanted to buy it.
“Nearly 17 % of the 750-strong global fleet of Capesize bulk carriers were delayed at ports over the weekend, according to the Global Port Congestion Index which tracks ship delays. Of the 129 bulk carriers at anchor, 52 are off Australia, with another 51 at ports in Brazil. Of the ships waiting off Australia, 38 are off Newcastle waiting for coal.”
Oz actions for Georgia
An ABC Reporter located in Georgia reported late last nite on an ABC site no withdrawal , I copied story for myself and was only going to post link , but I cann’t find link now , so sorry am posting part of ABC Journos whose inside Georgia
“Deadline passes for Russian withdrawal from Georgia
Russia moving missile launchers into South Ossetia: reports (PM) The deadline for Russia to begin withdrawing its forces from Georgia has now passed.
There are now reports of the Russian military moving short range ballistic missile launchers into South Ossetia.
American intelligence officials say the Russian military has deployed several SS-21 missile launchers and supply vehicles to positions north of Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital.
From there the missiles can reach much of Georgia, including Tbilisi, the capital.
There does appears to be movement of Russian troops from some positions in Georgia.At a Russian road block just outside the town of Gori, ABC correspondent Phillip Williams saw Russian tanks, armoured personnel carriers and jeeps heading in the direction of South Ossetia.
But he also passed an entrenched Russian force just 35 kilometres from Tbilisi, which shows no sign of moving.”
Cost of appeasement
Stephen Smith Australia’s FA minister could not hav been more blunt to Russians , its not yours to occupy
I find most informed Aussies do not hate USA , but ar continuously frustrated & angry at its continuing FA double standards , hypocracy and self interst Even this late stage , barring fronm G* (and therefore probably from WTA) , making Georgia a provisional NATO membber , and moving troops to its Capital Tbilisi would be “a JFK Cuban crisis” type play to face down poker man Putin …before it too late
What do we get from USA , th three major policans McCain Obama Bush , th three Stooges , with Bush & Obama weakly still ‘talking about’ what USA may or may not do after both lamely initially blamed Georgia as well , whilst McCain’s approach no doubt is absolutely correct but whether its driven by sheer politcs who knows with USA politcans
Kevin RUDD hope is th working overseas hot lines to get any Leader to show some ‘mettle’ …maybe in Europe , to reely financially punish Russia big time by kicking Russia out of G8 , and thereby effectively zeros there WTA member application
Exactly what does Georgia have to do with Australian electoral analysis?
Foreign Affairs has ALWAYS been an “oz politcal issue” (and particulaly warsd like Iraq and Vietnam) that th Liberals try to wedge Labor on
Last 3 electon hav been on it If you do not think Nelson and co ar not sweating on Labor’s reaction to this massive Geo political play , which ALSO ultimately will impact on oil and gas prices , and so inflation & growth
BTIW , what do you want to talk about
‘116 Dario’
The LNP does not present a sufficient or persuasive argument for its decision to block these government policies in the Senate. The reason really seems to be ‘because I can’. Well not really – it is their close association with those industry groups that continues to set their policy, even out of government. They can no longer think for themselves.
It also appears to have decided to block things the public might actually see as sensible things – like Fuel watch, medicare levie and alcopop tax, luxury care tax.
So later during an election campaign we might see these things come up again – Liberal’s blocked efforts to help Australians …… etc.
Liberal party is in bed with medical insurance companies to keep premiums and income base up.
Liberal party is in bed with energy industry to keep their profits and profit base up – anit-climate change anti-measures to deal with it.
The Liberal party is in bed with the alcohol industry and both support drink driven youth crime, the victimisation of young women.
The Liberal party is in bed with the rich elite by blocking luxury car tax.
The Liberal party is bed with Big Oil by blocking Fuel watch.
Who does the Liberal party support? The anti-Australia party? The LNP have given Labor some ammunition for their magazine later.
Liberal voters genuinely believe in there philosophy , and Greens voters genuinely believe in there philosophey Result is policy differences on those philosophys by all three Partys
Liberal Conservative looney faction (Howard) ar 100% for business and free enterprise & st.ff equity There is a Greens looney dogma faction believing th extremist reverse Fortunately Bob Brown is not part of that faction
Labor is a ‘left’ equity based policy Party , which recognises both reality of globilisation and positive benefits of growth & low inflation for average people , and so sensibly ties one to other Whilst debates/disagreements within Labor Party arise regarding th margins
Liberal Party’s opposition on above issues is consistent with there philosophy , and is equally opositionist regarding private schools , private hospitals , private non medicare for same reason Pity for debating purposes small “L” liberal faction is so small now
Ron
I agree that is what Liberals think. There are so many inconsistencies in their policy and indeed internal contradictions in their “philosophy” that it isn’t credible.
Regarding business, there are three massive contradictions:
First they talk about free enterprise and free markets, but whenever it is inconvenient (to business) this is ignored. For example, the single desk wheat sale system continues, even after evidence that it harmed the national interest (bribes to Iraq). No free market there.
Second numerous subsidies to business continue: diesel excise rebates for farmers and miners (why a subsidy? if a subsidy, why only those industries?), tax deductions for business cars etc. They want the rest of us to supprot them.
Third, the “user pays” principle is applied to individuals but not businesses. Individuals are expected to pay income tax and yet still have to fork out more for the health, education and transport. Business thinks it perfectly legitimate not to pay tax, and still wants the state to provide all the services they need: foreign trade, infrastructere and skill training support presumably get provided at someone else’s expense. On top of that, there is the question of who pays for those who can’t pay for themselves: the young, old, sick, mentally ill etc. If business gets away with paying no tax then the rest of us are stuck with the welfare bill too.
Regarding liberal “philosophy” I have a much bigger concern though. The hard liners who have degenerated into mere conservatives (not small l liberals) seem to think its fine to combine absolute business freedom with the right of business or the state to limit personal freedoms. That was why Workchoices jarred so deeply; business could bargain but there was no right to strike or collective bargain, a clear attack on personal freedom.
Attitudes on social issues such as abortion, euthenasia and gay marriage are no better. So they have this bizarre notion of “freedom” that says business can do anything and individuals can’t.
In the end, you can see from their behaviour that Libeal philospphy simply boils down to a tribal “help my friend/hurt my enemy” mindset, with business being their friend, rather than any coherent “philosophy”. No different to the NSW ALP right, just the opposite set of friends. Hence I have low regard for both.
Bushfire Bill @ 122 -
“Military debacle”… “devised with the best intentions”. Sound familiar?
Best/good intentions? Aren’t they what the road to someplace called Hell is paved in? I think it’s near Gori in Georgia.
Maybe it was the wheat we thought we could flog the Iraqis that caused us to tone down the mass killing side of things?
After all, they like the taste of Aussie wheat. Everybody knows that.
Funny then how they don’t buy much of it anymore, isn’t it? OTOH, American and recently European wheat farmers are laughing all the way to the bank:
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Agflation/idUSN2145832620080721
GG @ 112
lol.
LTEP @ 129
Good question.
Let’s face it, growing up in the 1950’s with wistful dreams of the British Empire, and not going to Vietnam and all, gave little Johnnie a bit of a soldier complex. The lead in all that petrol and in his toy soldiers probably did not help.
One of his enduring successes was a trend to militarizing Australia. He probably both rode it and stoked the trend.
He was well above the average of other world leaders during his tenure in terms of sending off the troops, so it must have given him a secret thrill.
If the result of the last elections had been reversed we would probably have troops on the way to Ossetia by now to show the Russians a thing or two.
But, to be fair and on the plus side, one of the few things for which Howard and Downer were not properly recognized was that they showed some sensible cold feet about jumping into any Taiwan Strait stoush.
ESJ @ 107 and others
lol
ESJ. while I wouldn’t want to teach my grandmother to suck eggs, and noting that you are obviously an accomplished exponent of the angler’s art, here are some fishing tips for your consideration:
1. Chuck in plenty of berley. The closer the berley smells and looks like the real fish tucker the better (as in your ‘truth’). The volume of berley should be calibrated to keep the prey fish hungry for more.
2. If at first you don’t succeed, keep casting. Sooner or later, prey fish cannot restrain themselves from striking at a well-presented lure.
3. If your line gets snagged, don’t pull it directly towards yourself. If the lure suddenly comes unstuck and rushes back towards you, the trebles can become embedded in some nasty places, of which I would rate eyes and those things Costello lacks as being the nastiest.
4. When in croc country don’t stand at the water’s edge. No need for you to get hurt, so stand well back from the water.
5. When in shark country/box jellyfish country don’t stand in the the water.
6. Vary your lure choice according to the prey species. For example, lures with a bit of pink in them are often attractive to rainbow trout, which also have a bit of pink on them. And so, for a green fish…
7. Vary your retrieval action according to the prey species.
8. Team fishing is useful because you can use a combination of lures and retrieval actions in the same bit of water. It can really get the prey species stirred up. I note that you do, from time to time, receive some well-judged support from fellow fishers.
9. If you don’t get a hook up, move to another patch.
10. Keep a few panfish, but throw the rest back for another day.
11. Most of all, take care not to hook yourself. From personal experience, I have to say that the medicos can hardly stop laughing for long enough to cut the hook out and stitch you up.
Tight lines.
If Rudd puts the alcopops, medicare levy etc legislation back to House Reps for a second time, to get DD trigger would Nelson still oppose them?
Well it depends on whether he thinks Labor would want to hold an election over taxes. In any event it’s questionable whether Mr Nelson would be around in the time it took there to be double dissolution triggers and if there is a leadership change, whether the shadow cabinet would be markedly different. By then, there may be differing perspectives on the legislation.
Medicare levy would be a very popular DD trigger–a big tax CUT
Jovial Monk @ 139
There have been other posts suggesting that a DD is highly unlikely apparently because it mightn’t solve the BOP problem in the Senate.
I would guess that if the WA premature something or other backfires, as it were, then the likelihood of a DD would be even less.
It looks like the libnats are going to try and delay/stop anything or part of anything that they deem unpopular. The question will be whether labour has better spin: ‘We would like to get on with governing but these clueless, negative, irresponsible do nothings are blocking us’ or whether the libnats ‘Labour is out to punish working families and we are protecting them’ line works better.
One issue is whether labour is going to accept compromise, and have the libnats cherrypick, or whether labour does not compromise and just shuts down whole packages, blaming the libnats for the whole thing.
Obviously, lots of interesting tactical work coming up.
Never said nothing about HAVING a DD. But Nelson or J. Bishop might think twice about opposing the second time.
Having the WA ALP returned as is likely will make the DD stick a bigger one.
Well, I hope Brendan is true to his word.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24207255-12377,00.html
I was waiting for this. From the Daily Telegraph’s on-line letters forum:
Now Rudd is responsible for the poor little baby whale losing its mother. There should be a plan in place for these kinds of happenings. Presumably putting the calf into a federally funded Maritime National Park… or something.
All I can say is …. wow.
Next month Costello releases his book, then retires from politics. It will be back to business as usual Brenda v Talcum.
Brenda thinks he will have the numbers ’till the next election. He may be correct but only by a slim margin.
This ensures regular leadership speculation for the next two years. Sigh
I think it’s pretty obvious that it was a teenage whale driven to ecstasy use (or whatever drugs young whales are using these days) by the high price of alcopops and Rudd removing the $5000 lump sum payment for all new whales born
145
Bushfire Bill
BB, It read like sarcasm to me but I might have a dysfunctional sarcasm antenna.
148 Steve K – you could be right. I really don’t think anyone would be that stupid do you? Although over at that blog that “shall remain nameless” …..
With the blocking of the changes to the Medicare levy, the libs intentions are to eventually have 90% of people falling into the $50,000 pa income threshold and there by ending the Universal Medicare and having pensioners and the marginalised needing government health benefits.
Which of coarse that has been their intention since 1975
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