Below are two pieces on the Western Australian election which I wrote for Crikey earlier in the campaign. A third piece on the Liberals’ paucity of female candidates, published yesterday, remains subscriber only.
The first is from Friday, August 8, the day after the election was called:
Yesterday’s announcement of a snap election for September 6 was the second bombshell to hit WA politics this week, following Troy Buswell’s surprise resignation as Liberal leader on Monday. Uncharitable observers are making comparison to the events of 3 February 1983, when Malcolm Fraser sprang an opportunistic double dissolution on federal Labor in the failed expectation of locking the party in behind Bill Hayden. The distinction of course is that Alan Carpenter was aware the opportunity to face the disastrous Troy Buswell had already been lost three days earlier.
As always when an early election is announced, few are buying the official explanation that a poll is needed to “end the cynicism” and “clear the air”, particularly in light of Labor policy supporting fixed four-year terms. Opportunism being the name of the game, Carpenter would plainly have done better to have gone last week, with a recent poll suggesting Buswell was weighing the Liberal vote down by as much as 6 per cent. Even so, there remains an overwhelming perception that Labor is in the box seat. Centrebet is offering a mere $1.18 for a Labor victory, against $4.25 for the Liberals.
The precedents for pre-election leadership changes have certainly not been promising, at least since Bob Hawke’s time: Robert Doyle in Victoria, Kerry Chikarovski in New South Wales and Bob Cheek in Tasmania all led state Liberal parties into the electoral mincer less than a year after taking the reins. The WA Liberals are further encumbered by the fact that Colin Barnett is their fourth leader this term, and they must also overcome new electoral arrangements that will require a notional gain of nine seats in a chamber of 59 to form even a minority government.
For all that, the Liberals have more going for them than interstate observers might assume. WA has hardly been a happy hunting ground for Labor in recent years: Geoff Gallop’s unspectacular re-election in 2005 was the only time the party’s primary vote has topped 40 per cent since 1989, a period covering seven federal and four state elections. Published polling during the Buswell period was not as bad for the Liberals as might have been expected, mostly putting Labor’s two-party lead at around 53-47. Buswell’s departure has also lanced a number of boils, reconciling vocal dissidents including former front-benchers Rob Johnson and Graham Jacobs.
Underdogs they might remain, but discerning punters should find those odds from Centrebet more than a little tempting.
The second is from last Wednesday. My assertion that the 2001 result was “unexpected” was contested in comments by Bernie Masters, who at the time was the Liberal member for Vasse. I personally was living in Melbourne, so Masters might well be thought a better judge.
Hardly an analysis of Labor’s surprise close shave in the Northern Territory has failed to make note of the other campaign in progress in Western Australia. Certainly the two elections have much in common: both involve Labor governments that came to power unexpectedly in 2001, seeking third terms after a mid-term leadership change. However, the main cause of excitement has been that both Alan Carpenter and Paul Henderson rushed to the polls ahead of schedule, acting with all the cynicism that early elections invariably entail.
Henderson’s decision to go 11 months early was made on the pretext that an environment of “certainty” was needed to assist the Territory’s bid for the Inpex gas plant, which failed to ring true given the Opposition’s equal enthusiasm for the project. How much this had to do with the result is hard to say. The conventional wisdom has been that bad publicity attending early election announcements is usually washed away by the tide of the campaign, leaving more pragmatic concerns to guide voters’ judgements on polling day.
Certainly there are alternative explanations for the Northern Territory election, not least that it was a correction after an extraordinary result in 2005 that had no parallel in Western Australia. No party should ever feel pleased with a swing of over 8 per cent, but Northern Territory Labor still recorded its second best ever result in primary vote terms and equal second in terms of seats. There is also the fact that the party had effectively knifed the leader who delivered them the 2005 landslide, for reasons that would have seemed obscure to those without their noses to the political grindstone.
In one sense the early election in WA is a less extreme circumstance in that Carpenter has gone only five months ahead of time, after laying the groundwork with talk of a “dysfunctional” parliament that had most bracing for a poll in October. However, of more significance than the timing was the political context: Carpenter called the election on Thursday just one day after Colin Barnett returned to the Liberal leadership, clearly having fast-tracked the existing timetable to catch his opponent off balance.
The historical record provides some support for the idea that early elections comes with risks attached. John Howard’s near-defeat in October 1998 came five months ahead of time, as did Bob Hawke’s disappointing performance in December 1984 (the 1983 double dissolution meant a half-Senate election had to be held no later than mid-1985). Jeff Kennett went six months early with both his bids for re-election, with respectively unremarkable and disastrous results. Those with longer memories might recall Labor’s unexpected defeat in South Australia in 1979, when Des Corcoran surprised his own party by going a full year early. On the other hand, Peter Beattie performed strongly in 2006 when he like Carpenter opted for a September poll that wasn’t due until February.
If the effect varies according to circumstance, Carpenter’s early poll might still be said to have a lot going for it. While the Liberals have been busy retooling their advertising campaign around a new leader, Carpenter has been able to trumpet his government’s achievements to mass television audiences captured by the Olympics. There is also talk from political insiders of empty Liberal Party coffers, which might have been filled if Barnett had been given more time to restore the party’s electoral credibility.
112 Comments
Which is evident on the Liberal Party Website of a Raffle which is not due to be drawn until the week after the State Election.
http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=11&Itemid=117
ABC News Video of the Nationals Preference Deal with The Libs, plus the announcement of the Liberals GM policy.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200808/r283323_1205292.asx
Gary Bruce
Did as you suggested with Peter , and when he replies Gary , I’ll post what he says
Thanks Ron, I’m very interested in what he has to say.
Latest ALP TV Ad Comparing Carpenter’s Experience & Vision with Barnett’s Plan for Retirement.
http://visionwa.org.au/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=5&Itemid=35
And another Laura Norder Pledge from the Libs.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=92562
There was some gibberish in the West Australian newspaper regarding “polling shows that Premier’s arrogance is a major factor”
Westpoll asked voters the reasons they may consider not voting for the ALP, and ‘arrogance’ was ticked by ten per cent of voters.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=92133
no doubt some of the pollsters out there will put me straight, but isn’t this called ‘leading the witness’ ?
a classic beat-up from the West – since when was ten per cent a ‘major’ figure.
if I conducted a poll asking why voters might not vote for Colin Barnett, and have a box marked “Because he looks like Shrek”, then a considerable number of people who would not vote for him under any circumstances are bound to tick that box – probably at least ten per cent
Next day I can gleefully run a story headlined “Barnett’s big mishapen head a major factor with voters”
Skink, in fairness to The West, the report does say: ‘The results showed up in a range of “unprompted” issues when voters were asked what issues or factors they were thinking about when they indicated their voting preference.’ I presume this means there was not in fact a “box” to be ticked marked “Carpenter’s arrogance”.
And the Federal Libs aren’t helping Barnett with stuff like this re Nuclear Power, despite ruling out a Nuclear Power Plant for WA.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24207945-5005361,00.html
Frank @ 9
Hmm. They should stop playing silly buggers and cut to the chase. Safe storage is now possible, if underpriced. What they really want to do is open up is the number of uranium mines and uranium sales o/s, including to India. Nuclear power stations in Australia are simply not commercially competitive.
According to Seven News, the “Leaders Debate” will not be shown live as according to Ch 9, they don’t have the facilities for a live broadcast, but they have assured that it will be screened unedited.
I know that the ABC couldn’t do it as their studios would be unavailable due to the construction of the Tally Room, but you’d think Nine would hire from the ABC, a Digital Outside Broadcast van for the event.
Nice work on Radio National today William.
Hope to see you voting for ths
libs
Hi William, congratulations on your appearance on ABC NewsRadio this afternoon. You spoke well.
Gary Bruce
reply “Hi Ron , Yes, you’re right… ” , also added normaly would refer to flaw I mentioned , didn’t partly as poor prefs calcs effect wouldn’t take account of all of th rounding flaw that I mentioned Gracous as well as very clever Guess for mine subject to MOE that th practicol efect is , one could regard Newspoll as a conservative figure & indeed ‘theoreticaly’ reduces MOE factor to Labors gain and converseley there’s some favourable Labor upside inherrent in that Poll
Trend Gary in future polls will be more revealing to us all
Thanks Ron. Yes, the upcoming polls will tell us more.
Antony Green has added the latest WA Newspoll to his Election calculator, which produces the following result.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/calculator/?wa=1.0&retiringfactor=1
The Libs/Nats actually lose seats
16 I don’t get that Frank, how does that occur?
If you see the list of seats, the ALP gain 2, while the lib/nats gain none
I am a little puzzled: that link actually shows a Labor landslide from 53.3 per cent 2PP. Whereas Antony’s Newspoll blog post has the Labor 2PP at 52 per cent, giving Labor a gain of four seats from the 2005 election and the Libs/Nats a loss of two.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/calculator/?wa=-0.3&retiringfactor=1
That’s amazing. It shows the task before them to win government. The next lot of polls will tell us the real story I think. If the Libs are in front then, Carpenter will be in trouble. Personally, I don’t expect that to be the case but who knows.
Thank you John and Rx, I might put audio up if I’m feeling sufficiently egotistical.
I didn’t think that was right. The seat count for Labor on 51% would be 34 – 23 – 2.
Even this figue looks good for the ALP
THough with the very low number of independnts standng, it will be interesting how the National and green preference deals will play out, as I notice in most cases the ALP are putting the Christian Democrats last.
BTW, here is the Liberal Statewide HTV card.
http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/images/howtovote.png
whoops, that should be:
http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=43&Itemid=117
And the Libs have put the ALP last in every seat.
And the Nationals 2nd.
How predictable.
Nationals HTV card.
http://www.nationalswa.com/pdf/Statewide%20HTV_FINAL.pdf
Interesting to note in Murray-Wellington, they’ve preferenced the Libs Murray Cowper 6th, and I’ve noticed in Gearlton there is a candidate called Trevor Sprigg, whom I’m assuming isn’t related to the recently deceased member for Murdoch.
Oh dear it looks like a misprint, cos according to the WAEC website the candidate is actually:
SPRIGG, Philip Christian Democratic Party WA
Unless of course he is also known as Trevor.
Just looking at the Nationals HTV card, it seems if the sitting member if it’s a Liberal or ALP member, they don’t get the second preference, hence Murray Cowper and Gary Snook in More being lower on the National’s ticket, same with Carol Martin.
Interesting strategy.
William @19. My web designer has loaded up the August 10-14 Newspoll incorrectly. I’ll get it fixed tomorrow.
Hopefully I’ll have the Legislative Council calculators up tomorrow as well, though I’m having problems getting resources because of the Olympics. I’ve put up all the group tickets at http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/gtv.htm
I can’t get my LC pages published until I can get an XML guru released from the Olympics project. Ive had my own input to the Olympics site at http://www.abc.net.au/olympics/2008/results/historical/ Click on the swimming events to see how I’ve applied my elections database software to the Olympics.
Antony, I see you’ve got Moore as being: Marginal Liberal 2.8% v NAT, instead of a safe LIB 18.7% (on the main page). Is this figured from the 2005 election in Greenough / Moore / bits and pieces of Merredin, and have you figured out similar Lib v Nat margins with any other country seat likely to be so? I’m thinking of Blackwood-Stirling and Central Wheatbelt particularly.
Antony,
With the Statewide HTV cards I posted, plus the ALP HTV cards on their website, can you predict an educated guess of the outcome using them as a template ?
Moore was easy because Libs and Nats contested all three seats in 2005, and we had actual 2CP counts for Greenough and Merredin. All of the old Moore was in the new Moore, so the easy assumption was to take the Moore distribution of preferences, but distribute Labor at the last count using the distribution of Labor preferences in Merredin and Greenough.
Trying to do the same for Blackwood-Stirling, Wagin and Central Wheatbelt is difficult because the Libs and Nats didn’t contest every constituent seat in 2005. I don’t think it’s worth guestimating ghost Liberal and National votes in seats they didn’t contest in 2005. However, I’d expect Labor to finish third in all three seats, as they will in Moore.
Guess the outcome of what Frank?
Hmm, According to Nine News, the Miss Maud “Bean” Poll, which she claims has been accurate for every election(though I think they got it wrong for the last poll), shows Labor slightly in front.
Video here.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/video?vxSiteId=1929a7b6-d2c6-4f56-bacf-9ca1759ced99&vxChannel=Nine%20News&vxClipId=1201_080819_ninenews&vxBitrate=300
The Election of course
Anthony,
Good to see your software has another (more predictable) use every 4 years.
.
While the web developers are looking at it, may I suggest they also look at the width of that “Gained” text. It seems to result in each of the rows with it being one pixel too thick. My javascript is a bit rusty (as is my html), but I think it is the way the strong tag is implemented in the CSS – putting it in a grey box. Either the box needs to be narrowed or the rows widened – either by a pixel.
I can guess election outcomes no better and no worse than anyone else. My interest is in modelling election night counts and it’s what I do for a living. One of the reason I rarely get to blog late in a campiagn is I’m usually up to my ears testing the software, verifying the data and trying to get the graphics to work properly. Try running a system that fully automates picking the winner, pulling up the correct winning candidate picture, drives a bottom of frame strap on the TV output and publishes the same results to the website. And I can change all the paramaters, turn off receipt of preference counts from the electoral office, over-ride an automatic prediction and even model new preference estimates. But you’ve got to be confident all your data is right first, which always means having to generate sensible test data for rehearsal, which is also an enormous hassle.
The biggest annoyance is people who want statewide 2PPs out of the system. I predict every seat based on booth modelling, and based on the final two candidates finishing in each seat. But you can’t get that data to add up to an overall 2PP total, and it’s of no use anyway, because the prediction in each seat is a more reliable guide to the election result that any overall 2PP.
Andrew, if you’re going to make a suggestion like that, you always have to tell me on what page. The words ‘gain’ and ‘retain’ appear all over the site.
I don’t know if they deliberately edited it this way, but here Gary Adshead on the streets of Osborne Park.
http://www.westtv.com.au/?vxSiteId=43c6a3c7-abf1-4c32-b98d-c27f8fa83360&vxChannel=News&vxClipId=1416_WAU1389&vxBitrate=300
That second video was funnier than the first. A bunch of city idiots in a shearing shed in Miling, probably annoying the farmers. (Of all towns within 300 km of Perth, why was Colin Barnett there? It’s tiny…some little place on the way from nowhere (um… Dally) to Moora, not even in the street directory.)
And they vote Frank.
Apologies, Anthony.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/calculator/?wa=-0.3&retiringfactor=1
BTW – I just checked. It is not happening on Internet Explorer – just firefox, but it does seem to be general on all of the pages with that sort of listing.
Paul Murray reckons the Libs were “lucky” to win Week one of the Campaign.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=9&ContentID=92569
“unprincipled decision” – hell anyone would have thought Carpenter committed murder rather than do what many governments have legally done in the past and go a few months early.
I am not sure why the Libs bother campaigning – just let The West do it for them
In a very close 2PP contest Labor benefits from the conservative vote being bottled up in the ultra-safe rural seats + sitting Labor MP votes in Albany, Geraldton & Collie-Preston. How organized are the Nats going to be to hand out cards in these 3 seats? Experience down here in Vic in 2006 was that Nat preferences drifted a lot.
Antony never makes predictions, which is why he has a prefect record of correct picks (nought out of nought), compared to the rest of us, and certainly compared to others such as Malcolm Mackerras – whose record by the way isn’t as bas as some suppose, although he did predict a landslide for John Kerry. Has Malcolm made an Obama/McCain prediction?
Frank @ 39 -great to see some of my local identities demonstrating their political acumen. Perhaps explains why Michael Keenan is our federal MP.
Finally got all the Legislative Council pages up for the election. And I’m just road testing the Legislative Council calculators to be published tomorrow.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/
Along with 6PR, and Perth Now.
Speaking of Perth Now, here’s some fun
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24212633-2761,00.html
From the article on Unions running Ads attacking Labor was this gem in the comments section.
Small problem, the Bus companies are private operators, and have been since they were privatised by the Court Liberal Govt.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/comments/0,21590,24211272-2761,00.html
Ahh, the Hillbilly is threatening to take hjis bat and ball if he doesn’t get his own way.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/royalties-for-regions-or-else-nats-20080820-3yk2.html
And didn’t Richard Court do exactly the same thing in 1996 and won with an increased majority ?
And here are the results for the 1996 State Election I mentioned above.
http://elections.uwa.edu.au/elecdetail.lasso?summary=true&keyvalue=952&nobanner=false&nominlink=false
Carpenter wouldn’t be surprised if Labor loses the election. Wonder what he’ll do for a living now the barbarians are at the gates? He could always go to the backbench and write his memoirs, I suppose.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/election-on-knifeedge-carpenter-20080820-3yq6.html
I seem to recall Gallop saying the same thing at the 2005 Election
But I still reckon Barnett on Sunday at his Policy Launch will announce something that will either be popular, or more likely, be something that will cause him to lose, like the Canal.
And the Libs are once again divided on Policy.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24213169-2761,00.html
Frank, Isn’t the modern version of the political campaign bible correct, when it says:
“Better to be a live Underdog than a dead lion?”
Hey Frank
Which labor politician do you work for?
Betfar is also running a book on the WA election.
60 Oops, Betfair
Hey Frank
Which labor politician do you work for?
None, but member of the ALP.
Which Liberal Party staffer do YOU work for ?
Pot Meet Kettle.
Frank Calabrese @ 53
Gryll’s gambit has a refreshing air of honesty about the Nats’ penchant for using the public purse for rolling out the pork barrel, decanting regional slush funds for party political purposes, and generally looking after sitting members, wink, wink, nudge, nudge.
To gain even a thin veneer of policy respectability, answers would be required for the following policy questions:
(1) Why stop at 25%?
(2) How would the slush be allocated?
(3) What objectives would the slush attain?
Conversely, if the electorate gives a clear mandate to either of the main parties, is it a corollary that the regions would be entitled to 0%?
For those who are interested in the proposition that history repeats itself, slush (skimmed off fat) was the cook’s perquisite in the British navy during the Napoleonic wars. The slush was then sold by the cook for personal profit. I would suggest that an appropriate policy name would be: ‘Gryll’s Slush Gambit’
Life just got a lot tougher still for Kim Hames and John Day, in their marginal seats… they’re getting a bit less of the lunatic fringe god-bothering vote. It’s only a few percent, but considering the Libs seem to be losing preferences from everywhere, it’ll add up.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=92821
And to think the Libs need to grab 9 seats from Labor, as well as holding on to their seats, it doesn’t look good for the Libs.
Are the Libs in any real danger of losing any marginal seats? I would have thought it was a matter of Labor hanging on.
With the redistribution due to One Vote One Value, there are some seats which were safe liberal, but are now Marginal, or in John Day’s case, they’ve moved to a new seat.
Plus there are some seats like Collie-Preston which have both sitting labor and liberal members running against each other.
Libs want to relax tough Fishing Restrictions.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=92908
So really we are looking at a whole new ball game. Should make for an interesting election. Thanks Frank.
Sounds like Bernett is going for every populist cause he can get his hands on.
Yep, they’ve shifted the goalposts quite a bit with more metropolitan seats than Country seats.
More info on the redistribution here.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/656
And an even better explanation, complete with current maps is here.
http://www.boundarieswa.com/2007/Final-Boundaries/
Frank
Re the fishing, I posted this about fishing in the NT.
Grace
I think you may have a point re push polling and the NT, but in a round about way.
That article you linked to mentions the effectiveness of the push polling in the NT especially in relation to fishing ” where half the population loves fishing for barra”.
The push polling apparently said that labor was to give the aborigines land/ sea rights that would threaten this NT past time.
Interesting about a week before this NT election the high court did just that.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/traditional-owners-win-sea-rights/2008/07/30/1217097331310.html
Push polling in the NT does not need a phone campaign, with such small electorates a whispering campaign in the pubs is just as effective. IE “See we told this would happen if labor got in”
Maybe the libs plan a similar campaign re fishing in WA.
re: Christian Democrat Preferences in Dawesville and Kalamunda.
This will make very little difference as the CDP and Family First did the same thing at the 2005 election, which means it will not make the swing vary compared to other seats. If there is a swing to or from the Liberals, it will be the same in Dawesville and Kalamaunda because the preferences are the same at both elections.
I had access to the tally sheets from 2005 and have actual minor party preference counts. In Dawesville, Family First polled 2.9% and preferences flowed 60% to Labor, the CDP polled 0.7% and flowed 39% to Labor.
In Darling Range (now Kalamunda), the CDP polled 3.8% and preferences flowed 56% to Labor, while Family First polled 2.9% and preferences flowed 45% to Labor.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/21/2342654.htm
Apparently Labor has given up on Kingsley
I’m pretty sure Labor only won it last time because of the fact Colin Edwardes replaced his wife Cheryl to run for the seat and suffered a backlash because of the Nepotism involved.
The polling must be quite bad for them to abandon it
It appears to be that way, it must have been a very brave move by Labor to write the seat off, but from Williams page.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wa2008/kingsley.htm
Quite bad is relative. It only needs to be a small swing in that seat. No use wasting resources on a seat that is not normally Labor and looks like going back to the fold.
Quite true, Kingsley was always a Liberal seat, and the infighting over pre-selection last time ensured it went to the ALP, and only just.
Meanwhile Barnett is talking up his chances of winning.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/21/2342704.htm
I hope Barnett becomes really cocky. I don’t recall the last Newspoll being particularly kind to him as such though.
It is true that Kingsley was always a Liberal seat up (until 2005) but remember there were small swings to Labor in the other northern metro marginals as well (eg Wanneroo where according to Antony’s site, Di Guise received 3.6% 2PP).
Anyone know what’s happening in Ocean Reef?
Yep, whereas Carpenter has been the opposite and has talked down a victory by saying it will be a knife-edge result, a tactic used I believe by Howard.
And speaking of Arrogance, Talk about the Pot calling the Kettle Black from Paul Murray
http://blogs.thewest.com.au/opinion/paul-murray-%E2%80%93-is-arrogance-an-issue/
The Kingsley result could be truobling for Labor for two reasons;
1) If there is a swing on in the Northern suburbs, several other seats could go as well…and the northern suburbs are where WA elections can be won and lost
2) If other seat, particularly northern ones, are shaky enough to need extra resources, that could be trobling for them and a reinforcing of point 1.
Seems weird as there still seems a huge amount of activity from ALP in Kingsley as I live there and recieved calls and stuff in letter box last night. I think it must be a wierd “we are underdogs” strategy.
How many Northern seats does Labor hold and by what margins?
Sending resouces to other seats doesn’t necessarily mean trouble BTW in those other seats.
Apparently Ocean Reef in trouble too (from ALP people in the North).
Labor holds 5 seats in the north, by between 0.1 and 7%.
I would have thought we’d all be expecting some swing against the ALP this election given the latest polling. It’s not so surprising that this low lying fruit would be picked as it were is it?
Which have all had boundry changes because of one vote One Value.
Ocean Reef is a new seat.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wa2008/oceanreef.htm
Gary,
I would guess that Barnett is talking up the possibility of a victory as I do not think that many in the Liberal Party actually believe it. He has to try to overcome the feelings that the Libs cannot win to get more out to assist on polling day. The only way to do that is to try to make them think there is a point.
I would agree with him (and Carpenter) BTW. There is a chance and, considering this government’s record, it indicates how poor the Libs have been over the last few years that they are not romping it in.
91 Andrew check out the cash bet on each party on Betfair in this election. Quite a substantial difference.
Perhaps fundraising might be another motivation for Barnett talking up the Liberals’ chances. Or maybe – God forbid – he’s telling the truth.
I have been told by another reliable media source that the Kingsley stuff is rubbish
Thought that story sounded suss, I wonder who leaked the story in the first place ?
sounds like bolocks to me
labor will lose kingsley tho
way too upper middle.
As I said above, it only went to Labor last Election because of the split in the Liberal vote due to Colin Edwardies running and the Community 1st candidate being the wife of a former Liberal Member for Cowan.
Colin is bringing out the Burke bogey
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/21/2342925.htm
boogey boogey boogey
I note Mark Olson doesn’t like the 600 extra nurses, but that’s not surprisingly that during the 2005 State Election he signed a pact with the Libs re Nurses Salaries.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/21/2342460.htm
Mark Olson is a Lib stooge, as well as being (SNIP: Flirting with defamation territory here, ZM – PB)
surprised he didn’t get a seat to run in really.
Westfarmers have had a swipe over trading hours. Happy that Bunnings can open 7 days a week but crying that Coles can only open 6 days.
Big chance that the Libs will change their policy on trading hours during the campaign if Barnett is not just there as a fund raising exercise.
When they bought in changed shopping hours in Queensland the Premier couldn’t even receive a fax as the shopping giants handed out letters to customers and offered to send them to the Premier of the time on behalf of retailers customers. They tied his fax machine up for weeks.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/labors-trading-plan-absolute-hash-20080821-3zh8.html
Seven news reports internal Labor polling is showing a 7% swing against the government
Geof Parry of Seven News says Labor polling shows a 7 per cent swing to the Liberals, although two-thirds expect Labor to win the election.
Was just about to post that – so that explains the Kingsley story ? And I wonder if the leak came from Reece Whitby ?
7% is pretty significant, Im not really feeling it on the ground.
Could this be part of some underdog strategy to try and reduce potential of protest votes
I think the NT needed that sort of leaked Labor polling. Where’s the leaked Liberal polling telling us how well they are doing?
Quite possibly yes, and the reason why it was leaked to Seven is simple, Seven here in Perth have the No 1 rating news service in the state, and with everyone watching the olympics, the message could get out to a very wide audience.
“Queensland ‘most in need of nuke power’”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24219808-26103,00.html
He said the ban on uranium mining in Queensland was contentious.
“There is no logic I can see for Queensland to not develop uranium reserves,” he said
ziggy loves pushing his nuclear barrow
gusface, I think Ziggy is a bit lost, the election is on over in WA at present and he turns up in Queensland. Just goes to show how out of touch these clowns are.
Labor is on $1.18 on centrebet and Libs at $4.25
New thread.