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	<title>Comments on: Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria</title>
	<atom:link href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/08/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-victoria/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/08/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-victoria/</link>
	<description>Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth</description>
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		<title>By: Boerwar</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/08/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-victoria/comment-page-2/#comment-180948</link>
		<dc:creator>Boerwar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Aug 2008 09:02:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/920#comment-180948</guid>
		<description>Bob Santamaria @ 99

Spooky blogname! Brings back my childhood political memories!

Agree on the hardyhead and local and regional irrigator reaction to allocating water to save it. The South Australian Labour Government simply tossed its hand in the air and said the hardyhead is buggered in South Oz. Congrats to Brumby Government for sticking to its guns on this one. Now, if you had to lose your job, your business and your home for a tiny fish that almost no-one sees: really what would you do?

Taking it from the top:

1. A federal system of governance which is dysfunctional when it comes to addressing cross-border issues.
2. A first past the post voting system which gives nats a disproportionate lower house outcome compared with, for example, the greens.
3. State governments of all colours which have basically lacked the courage and competence to: (a) recognise that all was not well (b) do something effective about it.
4. Because of history of trade agreements that exclude farm produce, Australian farmers who have to compete against internal and external tariff barriers, other trade barriers as well as external subsidies. There is a direct connection between what farmers need to do to make a living and subsidies and tariff barriers for vehicle manufacturers.

There might be an argument that the nats have been the worst perps. But there is no escaping accountability by state labour governments. They have mostly been asleep at the wheel on this one until far too late.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bob Santamaria @ 99</p>
<p>Spooky blogname! Brings back my childhood political memories!</p>
<p>Agree on the hardyhead and local and regional irrigator reaction to allocating water to save it. The South Australian Labour Government simply tossed its hand in the air and said the hardyhead is buggered in South Oz. Congrats to Brumby Government for sticking to its guns on this one. Now, if you had to lose your job, your business and your home for a tiny fish that almost no-one sees: really what would you do?</p>
<p>Taking it from the top:</p>
<p>1. A federal system of governance which is dysfunctional when it comes to addressing cross-border issues.<br />
2. A first past the post voting system which gives nats a disproportionate lower house outcome compared with, for example, the greens.<br />
3. State governments of all colours which have basically lacked the courage and competence to: (a) recognise that all was not well (b) do something effective about it.<br />
4. Because of history of trade agreements that exclude farm produce, Australian farmers who have to compete against internal and external tariff barriers, other trade barriers as well as external subsidies. There is a direct connection between what farmers need to do to make a living and subsidies and tariff barriers for vehicle manufacturers.</p>
<p>There might be an argument that the nats have been the worst perps. But there is no escaping accountability by state labour governments. They have mostly been asleep at the wheel on this one until far too late.</p>
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		<title>By: Bob Santamaria</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/08/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-victoria/comment-page-2/#comment-180933</link>
		<dc:creator>Bob Santamaria</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Aug 2008 07:47:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/920#comment-180933</guid>
		<description>The plug the pipe people are a classic example, they have no interest in the environment and I have even heard them say that we should just make the &#039;Hard&#039; decidions now and leave the evnironment &#039;GO&#039; . The hard decisions are things like driving the Murray Hardy Head into extinction., sacrificing the lower lakes etc.

 Its stuffed anyway so why prop it up? You are however right. there goes one of the worlds great river systems, on our watch, gone, kaput, finito, dead. Its is dead sir, your parrot is stuffed. It would be funny if it wasn&#039;t so tragic. These idiots and their mates in the National party should be taken out the back and flogged.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The plug the pipe people are a classic example, they have no interest in the environment and I have even heard them say that we should just make the &#8216;Hard&#8217; decidions now and leave the evnironment &#8216;GO&#8217; . The hard decisions are things like driving the Murray Hardy Head into extinction., sacrificing the lower lakes etc.</p>
<p> Its stuffed anyway so why prop it up? You are however right. there goes one of the worlds great river systems, on our watch, gone, kaput, finito, dead. Its is dead sir, your parrot is stuffed. It would be funny if it wasn&#8217;t so tragic. These idiots and their mates in the National party should be taken out the back and flogged.</p>
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		<title>By: Boerwar</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/08/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-victoria/comment-page-2/#comment-180701</link>
		<dc:creator>Boerwar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Aug 2008 05:31:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/920#comment-180701</guid>
		<description>Follow the Preferences @ 97

Well, as a potential seller of a water licence, I find the last sentence interesting, but I will content myself by observing (as I have elsewhere) that I have a bit of a conflict of interest here. I should also state that they were married at the time of my birth. *grin* But, it is all a bit academic this year. There is no water to allocate to the my licence *fatalistic shrug*

Your general proposition of letting the system break down completely is an interesting one that I had not considered. It is an unfortunate side-effect of social/political/economic systems breaking down that one of the last acts on the way out is to completely stuff the environment. Basically, the participants have no real choices left. Haiti is a classic example. It is also why fishing communities will fish a species out of existence.

I suspect the MDB would be another complete environmental disaster if left to its own devices. It is well on the way now. So, I would support an orderly transition supported by government.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Follow the Preferences @ 97</p>
<p>Well, as a potential seller of a water licence, I find the last sentence interesting, but I will content myself by observing (as I have elsewhere) that I have a bit of a conflict of interest here. I should also state that they were married at the time of my birth. *grin* But, it is all a bit academic this year. There is no water to allocate to the my licence *fatalistic shrug*</p>
<p>Your general proposition of letting the system break down completely is an interesting one that I had not considered. It is an unfortunate side-effect of social/political/economic systems breaking down that one of the last acts on the way out is to completely stuff the environment. Basically, the participants have no real choices left. Haiti is a classic example. It is also why fishing communities will fish a species out of existence.</p>
<p>I suspect the MDB would be another complete environmental disaster if left to its own devices. It is well on the way now. So, I would support an orderly transition supported by government.</p>
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		<title>By: Follow the Preferences</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/08/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-victoria/comment-page-2/#comment-180660</link>
		<dc:creator>Follow the Preferences</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Aug 2008 01:59:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/920#comment-180660</guid>
		<description>It is an irony, they however are far from the first climate change refugees, look at the Darfur region over a 20 period and the future is written large for all to see. Darfur also highlights that religion is usually used as a tool of powerful men to push their own interests in war are not generally the cause of war. 
On a slightly divergent tangent, I believe that there is a good argument that the gov&#039;t s should get out of the water game(Purchasing) all together, sadly wait until the whole system fails and then start again. The effect of the current purchasing is just to make some of these bastards even richer than they are now.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is an irony, they however are far from the first climate change refugees, look at the Darfur region over a 20 period and the future is written large for all to see. Darfur also highlights that religion is usually used as a tool of powerful men to push their own interests in war are not generally the cause of war.<br />
On a slightly divergent tangent, I believe that there is a good argument that the gov&#8217;t s should get out of the water game(Purchasing) all together, sadly wait until the whole system fails and then start again. The effect of the current purchasing is just to make some of these bastards even richer than they are now.</p>
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		<title>By: Boerwar</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/08/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-victoria/comment-page-2/#comment-180606</link>
		<dc:creator>Boerwar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Aug 2008 10:10:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/920#comment-180606</guid>
		<description>Follow the Preferences @ 94

Yep, I think we are in fairly furious agreement. I hope you don&#039;t think I am a nat supporter *sound of dry reaching*

It is true that the numbers generally mean that south of the divide wins every time. But in the interests of good governance, governments should govern for all, which means that they should be listening even to the folk who mostly vote against them and who sometimes don&#039;t like what they are doing. My attempted contribution to this was to give some insights into what I believe folk north of the divide are thinking.

There is a sad irony that it is somewhat likely that the world&#039;s first global warming refugees (irrigators who have gone broke this year for lack of water and have been forced off their farms) are internal refugees and that they are fleeing Nat electorates.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Follow the Preferences @ 94</p>
<p>Yep, I think we are in fairly furious agreement. I hope you don&#8217;t think I am a nat supporter *sound of dry reaching*</p>
<p>It is true that the numbers generally mean that south of the divide wins every time. But in the interests of good governance, governments should govern for all, which means that they should be listening even to the folk who mostly vote against them and who sometimes don&#8217;t like what they are doing. My attempted contribution to this was to give some insights into what I believe folk north of the divide are thinking.</p>
<p>There is a sad irony that it is somewhat likely that the world&#8217;s first global warming refugees (irrigators who have gone broke this year for lack of water and have been forced off their farms) are internal refugees and that they are fleeing Nat electorates.</p>
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		<title>By: Follow the Preferences</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/08/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-victoria/comment-page-2/#comment-180585</link>
		<dc:creator>Follow the Preferences</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Aug 2008 07:58:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/920#comment-180585</guid>
		<description>Zoom you mention some of the characters and you are quite right., one was involved a few years ago arguing that they should have been able to sell water out of irrigation areas then turns around and argues the opposite when it suits him.(He own 000&#039;s if megs and is well known) he also was reported in the Weekly times of having phone repeatedly someone who was intending to run for a NFF water committee position, he abused and threatened this person etc. Bully and thug, rural people are not stupid, they basically ignore this lot and if the numbers at their protest are anything to go by they are of no worry at all to the Brumby Government.
Try arguing in Melbourne that securing the water supply is a bad thing,</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Zoom you mention some of the characters and you are quite right., one was involved a few years ago arguing that they should have been able to sell water out of irrigation areas then turns around and argues the opposite when it suits him.(He own 000&#8217;s if megs and is well known) he also was reported in the Weekly times of having phone repeatedly someone who was intending to run for a NFF water committee position, he abused and threatened this person etc. Bully and thug, rural people are not stupid, they basically ignore this lot and if the numbers at their protest are anything to go by they are of no worry at all to the Brumby Government.<br />
Try arguing in Melbourne that securing the water supply is a bad thing,</p>
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		<title>By: Follow the Preferences</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/08/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-victoria/comment-page-2/#comment-180582</link>
		<dc:creator>Follow the Preferences</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Aug 2008 07:50:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/920#comment-180582</guid>
		<description>Boerwar, you are correct, however, there are fault lines in the bush. One point that people make about the ALP win in 99 against Kennett was that is was won in the bush. With the minority government, every seat was cruicial, however since then they have won in the major centres and anything north of the divide has been irrelevant. 
The thing about the bush vote is that in these irrigation areas they poll 70-80 % in some areas, and some of the safest seats in Aus both state and federal are in these areas. The point that they seem to miss, or maybe they don&#039;t, is that it doesn&#039;t matter if there is a 100% vote for the Nats they won&#039;t win any more seats in Melb.
Interestingly they did well in Gippsland but I think the reasons for that have been discussed, but could I share with you a comment made by a member of the Nats upperhouse team. Re Gippsland he said, &quot;It really shows that Money equals votes.&quot; Amazing analysis really, had this not occured to them before. Did they not notice the other factors at play. Just between you and I the Nats are an absolute disgrace, their stance on climate change is the worst example of complete lack of leadership I have every seen. It their own constituents who are suffering the most and are in most need for real scientific decision making and risk management but the Nats still trot out the old deniers lines. They just hate the fact that the Greens/environmentalist have been right all along.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Boerwar, you are correct, however, there are fault lines in the bush. One point that people make about the ALP win in 99 against Kennett was that is was won in the bush. With the minority government, every seat was cruicial, however since then they have won in the major centres and anything north of the divide has been irrelevant.<br />
The thing about the bush vote is that in these irrigation areas they poll 70-80 % in some areas, and some of the safest seats in Aus both state and federal are in these areas. The point that they seem to miss, or maybe they don&#8217;t, is that it doesn&#8217;t matter if there is a 100% vote for the Nats they won&#8217;t win any more seats in Melb.<br />
Interestingly they did well in Gippsland but I think the reasons for that have been discussed, but could I share with you a comment made by a member of the Nats upperhouse team. Re Gippsland he said, &#8220;It really shows that Money equals votes.&#8221; Amazing analysis really, had this not occured to them before. Did they not notice the other factors at play. Just between you and I the Nats are an absolute disgrace, their stance on climate change is the worst example of complete lack of leadership I have every seen. It their own constituents who are suffering the most and are in most need for real scientific decision making and risk management but the Nats still trot out the old deniers lines. They just hate the fact that the Greens/environmentalist have been right all along.</p>
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		<title>By: Boerwar</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/08/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-victoria/comment-page-2/#comment-180542</link>
		<dc:creator>Boerwar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Aug 2008 04:29:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/920#comment-180542</guid>
		<description>Follow the Preferences @ 92 and Ron @ 90

Good detail concerning the water management boards and what can only be described as corrupt behaviour, even if &#039;legal&#039;. Mind you, in practice, they needn&#039;t have worried about the latter too much. As I pointed out in another post in relation to some skulduggery in northern NSW and southern Qld - I am unaware of prosecutions of water thieves. The local bureaucracies appear to be too close to the perps.

I wholeheartedly support your call for a Royal Commission into water management in Australia. It is a national disgrace, and the closer you look at any part of it, the worse it gets. However, since both labour and libnat governments have contributed to the current mess, I think that a Royal Commission would be very unlikely. Too many skeletons in too many closets. Even just the Senate enquiry TOR will already be difficult for the libnat senators to control - they have so much that they would prefer being kept in dark corners.

However, I would caution you against a view that somehow or other irrigators are generally more isolated from their country neighbours than so-called &#039;reasonable&#039; country people are from city people. Many country towns float or sink on irrigators&#039; economic activity. Although not very visible to outsiders, there will be long-term extended family relationships, sometimes going back five or six generations. Anyway, this supposed separation is not generally so in my experience; intuitively, it is not likely either. And we all know where complacency and guessing about what rural folk were really thinking got Kennett.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Follow the Preferences @ 92 and Ron @ 90</p>
<p>Good detail concerning the water management boards and what can only be described as corrupt behaviour, even if &#8216;legal&#8217;. Mind you, in practice, they needn&#8217;t have worried about the latter too much. As I pointed out in another post in relation to some skulduggery in northern NSW and southern Qld &#8211; I am unaware of prosecutions of water thieves. The local bureaucracies appear to be too close to the perps.</p>
<p>I wholeheartedly support your call for a Royal Commission into water management in Australia. It is a national disgrace, and the closer you look at any part of it, the worse it gets. However, since both labour and libnat governments have contributed to the current mess, I think that a Royal Commission would be very unlikely. Too many skeletons in too many closets. Even just the Senate enquiry TOR will already be difficult for the libnat senators to control &#8211; they have so much that they would prefer being kept in dark corners.</p>
<p>However, I would caution you against a view that somehow or other irrigators are generally more isolated from their country neighbours than so-called &#8216;reasonable&#8217; country people are from city people. Many country towns float or sink on irrigators&#8217; economic activity. Although not very visible to outsiders, there will be long-term extended family relationships, sometimes going back five or six generations. Anyway, this supposed separation is not generally so in my experience; intuitively, it is not likely either. And we all know where complacency and guessing about what rural folk were really thinking got Kennett.</p>
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		<title>By: Follow the Preferences</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/08/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-victoria/comment-page-2/#comment-180539</link>
		<dc:creator>Follow the Preferences</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Aug 2008 03:51:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/920#comment-180539</guid>
		<description>Re water stealing, there are a number of points lost in this debate which has not been picked up/ or ignored by the media.

Most of the owners of water recieved it from their Dad who&#039;s grandfather put a pump into the river and pumped until the grass grew. The size of many allocations is simply a reflection of the size of grand daddys pump. They paid nothing, or next to nothing, for many of these allocations and when you consider that the price of water &#039;rights&#039; has gone from about $200 per mg to over $1000 in the last 4-5 years they are really pushing the envelope. 
There are water boards in the north of the state who as long ago as 2002, (Yes that was 2002) allocated to their own board member over 12 gigs of high quality ground water for about $120 per meg, Thats the &quot;right&quot; not one years price. One of these then famously offered to sell his 4 gig water right to a near by town for about 5 million. Huge profit huge hypocracy, some of the Nat pollies know these people and get all huffy when they are called liars, which in many cases they clearly are. 
I firmly believe that the Governments should call for a royal commision into the running of these water boards, but I suppose you don&#039;t ask the question unless you know the answer, and people who are aware of the above facts will say things like, &quot;well yes that is all true, but they didn&#039;t actually break any laws.&quot; 
One last rant about some of these millionaire irrigators, they in many cases grow lucerne for race horses ,for rich mens recreation yet scorn pensioners in the city who want a bit of water to grow thier tomatoes. This is why they are spectacularily unsuccessful in thier protests. Yesterday their rally outside the office of Jacinta Allen in Bendigo attracted 150 people, all wearing acubras. Country people know they are complete hypocrites and regional people understand it as well.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re water stealing, there are a number of points lost in this debate which has not been picked up/ or ignored by the media.</p>
<p>Most of the owners of water recieved it from their Dad who&#8217;s grandfather put a pump into the river and pumped until the grass grew. The size of many allocations is simply a reflection of the size of grand daddys pump. They paid nothing, or next to nothing, for many of these allocations and when you consider that the price of water &#8216;rights&#8217; has gone from about $200 per mg to over $1000 in the last 4-5 years they are really pushing the envelope.<br />
There are water boards in the north of the state who as long ago as 2002, (Yes that was 2002) allocated to their own board member over 12 gigs of high quality ground water for about $120 per meg, Thats the &#8220;right&#8221; not one years price. One of these then famously offered to sell his 4 gig water right to a near by town for about 5 million. Huge profit huge hypocracy, some of the Nat pollies know these people and get all huffy when they are called liars, which in many cases they clearly are.<br />
I firmly believe that the Governments should call for a royal commision into the running of these water boards, but I suppose you don&#8217;t ask the question unless you know the answer, and people who are aware of the above facts will say things like, &#8220;well yes that is all true, but they didn&#8217;t actually break any laws.&#8221;<br />
One last rant about some of these millionaire irrigators, they in many cases grow lucerne for race horses ,for rich mens recreation yet scorn pensioners in the city who want a bit of water to grow thier tomatoes. This is why they are spectacularily unsuccessful in thier protests. Yesterday their rally outside the office of Jacinta Allen in Bendigo attracted 150 people, all wearing acubras. Country people know they are complete hypocrites and regional people understand it as well.</p>
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		<title>By: Follow the Preferences</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/08/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-victoria/comment-page-2/#comment-180536</link>
		<dc:creator>Follow the Preferences</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Aug 2008 03:35:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/920#comment-180536</guid>
		<description>Ron, could I join Anthony from a different thread and ask you to complete your words and check your posts, I find your entries mind bendingly difficult to understand.
The parts I understood in the last post I agreed with.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ron, could I join Anthony from a different thread and ask you to complete your words and check your posts, I find your entries mind bendingly difficult to understand.<br />
The parts I understood in the last post I agreed with.</p>
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