• Call it expectations management if you will, but Labor is sending out strong signals that it is in big trouble despite what the betting markets think (Centrebet continues to offer $1.18 for Labor and $4.25 for Liberal). Yesterday Alan Carpenter spoke of his party being in a “knife-edge political situation”. Geof Parry of Seven News has today been told internal polling shows Labor headed for defeat on the back of a 7 per cent swing, although two-thirds expect them to win. The ABC was told the party had given up on its most marginal seat of Kingsley (although local resident Bogart writes in comments that he has “received calls and stuff in letter box last night”), and is “concerned” about Riverton and Swan Hills (with respective post-redistribution margins of 2.1 per cent and 3.6 per cent, and a prematurely outgoing sitting member in the latter case), as well as the new seats of Ocean Reef (notional margin of 1.6 per cent) and Jandakot (3.6 per cent). The latter comes as a surprise, as Labor was earlier trumpeting polling showing it ahead 56-44, and should presumably have cause for optimism due to the Fiona Stanley Hospital and Perth to Mandurah rail line.
• Upper house voting tickets were lodged on Monday, and can most easily be perused at ABC Elections. A lot more on this shortly. The Nationals have predictably backed off from their threats to preference Labor ahead of the Liberals depending on the reception to its push for 25 per cent of mining and petroleum royalties to be invested in regional areas. However, they have put Family First and the Christian Democratic Party ahead of the Liberals, which could yet turn up some interesting results. Surprisingly, the party is fielding candidates in all three metropolitan upper house regions. Their lower house card can be read here, though it’s hard to make sense of if you can’t put names to parties.
• The Greens are directing preferences to Labor in most places where it matters, but are offering open tickets in Morley (where ex-Labor incumbent John D’Orazio is running as an independent), Mount Lawley, Pilbara and Kimberley (despite its female indigenous incumbent). They will preference the Nationals ahead of the Liberals in Wagin and Central Wheatbelt, but are yet to declare their hand in Blackwood-Stirling and Moore.
• Monday’s West Australian released further results from last week’s Westpoll survey, providing unprompted responses to the question of “key issue in voting decision”. It indicates the meme of Alan Carpenter’s “arrogance” has caught on, with 10 per cent listed as nominating “Govt/Carpenter arrogance”. Other responses were 19 per cent for health, 12 per cent for law and order, 11 per cent for environment, 10 per cent for education and 10 per cent for “cost of living/economics”.
• The leaders’ debate will be held on Monday, the day after the Olympics closing ceremony, and screened as part of an hour-long edition of Channel Nine’s A Current Affair. Nine will reportedly have to air it unedited after the event as it lacks the facilities to screen it live.
• Antony Green concurs with Peter Brent’s assessment that Saturday’s Newspoll should have put Labor’s lead at 52-48 rather than 51-49, and provides much detail on minor party preference flows at the 2005 election.
• The surprise early election announcement has resulted in a dramatic drop in the number of candidates, from 375 lower house candidates in 2005 to 161.
• Click here for audio of my appearance on Jennifer Byrne’s program on News Radio on Tuesday. Readers in the fashionable end of town can enjoy more of my media tartery in the latest edition of Western Suburbs Weekly.
• Joe Poprzeczny’s State Scene columns for WA Business News generally deserve wider coverage, so here’s an extract from his assessment in last week’s issue. I personally am standing by my existing assumption that any minority government will be a Liberal one, unless John D’Orazio or John Bowler get up in Morley and Kalgoorlie:
To begin analysing the possibilities it’s important to keep the number 30 in mind, because that’s how many seats a side must win in the 59-member lower house to form government … However, even if one or two seats in the ‘quite solid’ category tumbled into the Barnett dilly-bag, there are others outside the 29-seat category that could go the other way, that is, fall out of the Barnett dilly-bag into the Carpenter-McGinty sack. Consider the Barnett-led camp’s following problems. The first that needs highlighting within those remaining 30 seats is that four – Wagin, Central Wheatbelt, Moore and Blackwood-Stirling – are set to be won by the Brendon Grylls-led Nationals, which leaves Mr Barnett only a possible 26 seats remaining. Moreover, Mr Grylls has made it clear that he and his three lower house colleagues aren’t interested in being ministers. In other words, forget dreaming about another conservative coalition …
Mr Barnett, even if he does well, by which State Scene means if he wins 26 seats, would at best only be able to form a minority government, one relying on the four Nationals who wouldn’t join him in coalition. And it’s here that an entirely new factor – one that’s so far been overlooked – walks onto WA’s political stage. Let’s say Mr Carpenter wins all his impregnable-to-quite-solid Labor seats, giving him 29 seats, one short of being able to form government. And let’s say Mr Barnett wins the remaining 26 minus the four National seats, which is far from certain. What would that mean? Firstly, it puts the Nationals in a potent position to start talking turkey, as they say in the bush, on which side to support and under what conditions. Secondly, when it comes to offering the power to form a government surely WA Governor Ken Michael would feel under some obligation to offer the majority party – in this case Labor – the first offer of the Treasury benches since they’d have 29 MPs, to 26 non-Laborites plus the four Nationals …
Among those 26 seats are several that Mr Barnett is likely to have great difficulty winning, if indeed he even stands Liberal candidates. State Scene puts no fewer than six into this group. They include the three held by Independent Liberals – Janet Woollard, Liz Constable and Sue Walker. True, efforts are being made to coax them across, and he may succeed in one or two cases. But only a brave person would predict all three women can be counted on to offer him full and unconditional backing. This qualification may not trim the 26-seat number down to 23 seats, but it certainly means the 26 figure is far from rock solid. Moreover, many Liberals have been viewing the two provincial seats of Geraldton and Albany as set to fall into their dilly-bag. That, however, remains a brave prediction with their current Labor incumbents – Shane Hill and Peter Watson, respectively – far from easy marks. And there’s another problem; the seat of Kalgoorlie, which Mr Birney isn’t contesting. Although many see Kalgoorlie as being Liberal on the basis of the past two elections, that’s a brave claim since those figures reflect Mr Birney’s two performances. With Mr Birney now out of the race, and with sacked Labor minister, John Bowler, contesting Kalgoorlie as Independent Labor, it’s quite likely to go to him or Labor candidate, Mathew Cuomo, rather than to a Liberal. If Mr Bowler wins Kalgoorlie he’d be able to negotiate himself into becoming lower house speaker if Labor found itself with only 29 seats. And the Liberals are far from assured of winning Collie-Preston that’s being contested by their frontbencher, Steve Thomas, who faces a tough fight.
342 Comments
ffs William
I read all that (actually I didn’t but…)
WHO should I bet on? There’s a cold fiver going down on this, one way or the other and you!…. my likable (almost) hairless little friend…
may well be the key!
Ah the business end of all this speculation. One thing to add to your comments and that is that if there is a minority government, I believe that the governor could change the government by offering the premiership/governemnt to the other side if one side falls. A bit like what happened in 75?
Not being overly up with WA politics, it is amazing that the Nats and the Libs would be sending these mixed messages to the electorate. Here is the first call, ALP returned, reduced margin, majority government with 32 seats.
Preferences will of course determine the election.
ABC News lead with the leaking as well, poll was taken in 5 Marginal seats. 57% say ALP will win, while only 25% say the Libs are ready to Govern.
The leaking is typical Labor strategy. They are trying to change expectations amongst their supporters to prevent a 1995 QLD-style ’send ‘em a message’ outcome. Good media management by Hawker Britton. The fact is that the Libs only got a leader 2 weeks ago and are a complete rabble. This stuff about the Libs is getting quite out of control, fed by a complicit media.
Is this the same five marginals highlighted in the last Westpoll?
I just want to add three more things: the electoral mathematics are still very difficult for the Liberals, Labor STILL has the massive advantages of incumbency and the Liberals STILL have no money. I’d be putting my money on Labour. A 25% return on tips is not bad at all!
Perth Now story on the leaked polling.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24220333-948,00.html
Joe Spagnolo on the “leak”
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24220346-948,00.html
This will make the next Westpoll interesting, if it carries on the trend of big swings to the Liberals, it might kill the goose that they thought was going to lay a golden egg.
Comments are already up
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24220333-948,00.html
ABC Story on the poll leaking.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200808/r284624_1211695.asx
But Frank is it the spin or is it the truth? What’s your local assessment on the “leaked internal polling”?
Honestly I don’t know what to make of it, it could be a reaction to the sympathetic coverage given to the Libs by our Partisan Media, especially our only Daily Paper The West Australian, who are very pro-liberal and would blame Labor if someone farted in the same room
ESJ, it brings to mind the Bill Hayden years where he led everywhere except the business end of the election. It would just be a confirmation of the Westpoll and Newspoll of last weekend but with a bigger time lag. Decent polling in the NT would probably have picked up what the happening there too.
Knowing two or three weeks out from the poll is a great advantage compared with finding out on election night. The Government will turn the heat and pressure up a few notches as a result of this polling.
I see Gary Bruce isn’t with us at the moment but I have been channelling his thoughts . . . .
“nothing to worry about here . . . this is actually a good result for Labor . . . Labor’s pollsters have no credibility, they’ve got form . . . if the Liberals were going to win they’d be a lot further ahead now . . . this is a very clever tactic from Labor . . . this doesn’t tell us anything about how people will vote . . . 2 weeks is a long time in politics, everything could change . . . the next poll will tell us more . . . yeah.”
16 Winston – thankyou, you’ve saved me the trouble. I feel honoured that you take that much notice of what I say.
Actually, like most of you, I have no idea what is really going on over there. Your guess is as good as mine. I suspect Labor will win but I wouldn’t be betting my house on it.
Gary, I thought you were pretending to be Winston.
Re Frank at 14:
If the ALP were to invent a cure for cancer, the West Australian headline would read:
ALP TOO LATE FOR MILLIONS
Winston Gary Bruce?
“Critics slammed The Carpenter Government yesterday for failing to find a cure for AIDS. The besieged Premier yesterday denied allegations by Opposition Superstar Comeback Kid Colin Barnett that the Carpenter Government was failing Western Australian families”
Ahem, on another note
This 7% thing is silly, its clearly a strategy by Labor to make people think twice about a protest vote and to sympathise and empathise with Carpenter.
This 7% thing is silly, its clearly a strategy by Labor to make people think twice about a protest vote and to sympathise and empathise with Carpenter.
It may or may not work either but it will focus their campaign like nothing else will.
23 steve – I agree. You’d think if they were going to make it sound credible they’d choose say 4% or they wouldn’t release the figures at all. Let’s face it you only release such figures for effect.
I think it is also to overcome this “arrogance” perception.
Gary, another day on the hustings where they won the big news story too.
Exactly, and compare it to what Barnett said, sounding all cocky and stand offish, like he did when he got his sums wrong in 2005.
Mind you the people who post on Perth Now and The West online are people who haven’t got the confidence to ring talkback radio
Which was poo-poohed by the Secretary of the ANF who is remembered for siding with the Libs last election and who I believe isn’t even popular with some of his own members.
I remember Beattie saying after a poll showing he was about to win the last Qld election easily, “This could cost us 10 seats”. Classic.
Isn’t that pretty much what WA labor was saying tonight?
Correct me if I’m wrong, anyone, but isn’t the ‘expectations game’ generally only played during the waning days of a campaign.
If Carpenter is wheeling these lines out now, over two weeks before polling day, there must be an element of truth (and desperation) to this, right?
I think it is Steve. Hose it right down to an expectation of a loss. Frighten the heck out of the electorate. They could wake up on that Sunday morning with Barnett and his rabble in government and the sniffer as treasurer.
Not necessarily A-C. It is a close election, no doubt in which case it pays to be the underdog. Barnett is going overboard the other way. Isn’t that also a sign of desperation?
AC there’s an element of truth alright but will the Opposition be able to withstand the heat from now on? That is the unknown.
A-C
Watch the ABC Story here and watch how both Carpenter and Barnett respond about their chances.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200808/r284624_1211695.asx
Seems some are assuming Labor fabricated this leaked poll. A “cunning plan”perhaps. But if they were confident of winning, they wouldn’t need to.
Steve, exactly, the onus will be on the opposition not to stuff it up, especially on Sunday during the Liberal Launch, and on Monday during the debate – all it needs is another crazy Canal type annoucement/promise and it will end in tears for the libs.
35 But if they were confident of winning, they wouldn’t need to.
Yeah, remember the NT election Winston – that theory worked a treat there.
35 Winston – Oh, so now you want to believe leaked Labor polling. I wonder if you’d be so enthusiastic if it showed Labor winning easily. You’d be all over it like flies over crap.
Interesting that the Leak story has not made it to The West Online, but was on the ABC, and Perth Now.
I’m waiting on how they will spin it for the Dead Tree version.
Steve, you are confused.
In WA they have polling- party and public. So they should know what the position is. So why would they spin this line if they are well ahead? It suggests panic.
Call it panic, call it cold calculated planning, call it a mistake, it puts the pressure right back on the Libs.
It suggests clever politics. Make yourself the underdog. Parties try and do that all the time, particularly front runners. A genuine underdog tries to play their chances up. Ring a bell?
As Robert Taylor said in the West, as did Paul Murray, Howard did exactly the same thing.
What is the Liberal response going to be? Pop a few more champagne corks?
Expect the the really big spending promises, which will be easy to counter as being irresponsible mangers of the treasury.
Alternatively the Libs could back off for a week or two to regain their underdog status, I’m sure that would work well.
The ALP advisers are either really smart or have totally screwed an impossible to lose election.
First they go early during the Olympics – which has given the libs an excuse to have an extra two weeks to get ready with advertising etc.
Then addressing the arrogance issue, which was brought up in a westpoll so should have been ignored until the oxygen had gone – by denying it, Carpenter Arrogance is now the Liberal message. As a result of this the whole ALP campaign to date (Carpenter PVA instead of individual candidate, Carpenter TV ads, Carpenter etc) has played into the Libs message.
And now this polling – two weeks out of the election – before the libs have a chance to stuff it up with the launch or debate, still during the olympics – If the purpose is to scare people away from protesting, surely it’s too early in the campaign. AND guess who will use the polling to go and collect some big cheques, if as suggested the libs are poor.
I would be interested if anyone is actually polling the 6-7% seats (Wanneroo, Mindarie etc) to see if these swings are not just happening where the Libs are targeting…
meh its all political jiggery pokery
My guess is that the election will be messy, and not very clear.
John D holding the balance…just putting it out there.
Only the following on the Labor polling in The West, from Robert Taylor’s “Campaign Sketch” on page 7:
Well I can confirm that this is not a tactic to scare voters. Its very real based on decent data. Frankly I have difficulty seeing how we can come back from this.
The strategy group is crapping itself. And they only have themselves to blame. How they have let this arrogant line to become an issue is beyond me. Some of the greatest leaders in history could be described that way…just exactly how is it a negative? Despite the worsts reporting, this is not a bad government, its been probably the most economically responsible government in WA’s history, we have real infrastructure being created and on the whole people are doing pretty well. How these circumstances to add up to a scenario where Buswell becomes Treasurer is beyond belief.
Only if it’s someone else’s shout.
But what does the ‘natural order of things’ mean?
Unlike in other states, this Labor government’s majority has never been particularly large. Barnett may not get a ‘tidal wave’, but he doesn’t need one.
The natural order of things may mean a Liberal government. And I believe that’s exactly what William has previously argued.
I wonder if he didn’t include the 7% stuff because the info was leaked to the ABC, Perth Now and Seven, Nine & Ten didn’t run with it all.
I’m surprised they haven’t exploited the “Buswell as treasurer” line more. I mean, Barnett is giving him a strong endorsement (and impliedly endorsing his appalling behaviour) in handing him that portfolio.
Is there any chance Buswell could lose his own seat?
Yes, you would think they’d do that, though maybe they’re going to run those ads in the last 2 weeks to maximise the impact
Unfortunately, former Liberal Bernie Masters, who almost won the seat at the last election has decided not to run and the seat is fairly safe.
54 Sean
I think it’s London to a brick that the ALP will target Buswell in the last few days of the campaign. Given his low standing in the electorate, it’s amazing that he’s been given such an important portfolio.
How much of a swing would it require, his seat?
9.6%
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wa2008/vasse.htm
Not unattainble, considering some of the giant swings in the last federal election.
Another, not so publicised aspect to this is his time as President of the Busselton Shire Council where he presided amid allegations that he’d sent the council bankrupt.
Sean 59
I suspect a swing of that magnitude would only be attainable if there was a state wide swing to the ALP. But I will be surprised if there’s not a sizeable backlash against him.
The new boundaries of Vasse (his electorate) could affect things, perhaps?
#60
Yes Frank. It lends itself to a similar attack to the one that the Libs mounted against Latham during the 2004 Federal election.
#63
A very strong strategy in 2004.
Liberal Party Radio Ads targetting Brian Burke.
http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=489&Itemid=140
Ads 3 & 4
#64
Yes Sean. It was very effective and I’m sure that will not be lost on the ALP strategists in WA.
(bed time for me)
G’night, Darn!
“State secretary Mark Olson says the Government must also address major parking shortages at the major hospitals if it is to attract or retain nurses in the profession.”
So labor say they will employ an extra 800 nurses and 60 doctor interns and Olson says this won’t work as they will have nowhere to park? Is this right Frank?
“Mr Grylls has made it clear that he and his three lower house colleagues aren’t interested in being ministers.”
That is weird, all power and no responsibilty?, the whole point of representation is to put forward and implement policies for your constituents.
Very smart of Hawker Britton, they are creating doubt in the electorate on who will win government, so people will now focus on the Liberals and their policy.
And not the stuff ups of the ALP, ie explosion, Burke, royal commission etc
Labor will romp it in, they will have at least 12 seat majority.
7%? yeah right that put Labor at 46 2PP, looks like Capenter need to be taught how to tell fibs, maybe he is talking about a safe liberal seat compared with the last election
The Liberals are now in the position of a dog catching a car. Do they go ahead of the car and run the risk of being run over. Run along beside it with the risk of someone leaning out the window and cracking a stockwhip in their face or back off and begin the chase all over again?
Steve @ 70
*grin*
All the noise, dust, gravel and diesel fumes should help the canine concentration.
I think Insider, above, is here to help the ALP cause by perpetuating the myth. The next lot of opinion polls will tell the story.
In a close 2PP contest you would put money on Labor as was case back in the 1980s: Federal 1990, Vic 1988, SA 1989, WA 1990 all Labor wins from a 2PP minority. Carpenter remains Premier until he resigns or is defeated on the floor of the House. If the Nats want a minority Lib govt supported by them they will have to pledge to vote Labor out in the House and then Carpenter would resign
71 “All the noise, dust, gravel and diesel fumes should help the canine concentration.”
Boerwar, the problem is that once the Liberals hit the front they will be expected to lead or at least show some leadership skills.
A party with four changes of leader, all their policies under review and split from their running mates the Nats will find it difficult to concentrate for two more weeks. I’m sure that had the campaign been the same length as the NT campaign they were in with a possibility of an undeserved win.
If they had four years of stability, all their policy work finalised etc., it could have been a different matter. It is too late to do all that in a campaign. The focus will shift to Liberal Party policy once the Olympics are over and then the Liberals will find the going very tough. Labor will just be hoping the Libs can keep ahead in the race and the polls for the next week or so.
Not quite the right spot I know, but this may interest a few here:
Roy Morgan fires employees
RA, a morgan survey found the company was not moving in the right direction.
Is it time to play which Ministers wont show-up to play opposition?
From Insider at 50: The strategy group is crapping itself. And they only have themselves to blame. How they have let this arrogant line to become an issue is beyond me.
Oh pulease – anyone who hadn’t noticed the massive arrogance before the election has had two weeks of the Carps adds kicking Colin. A work colleague who had to ask who the premier was said that add convinced him to vote for whomever that other guy is.
It hasn’t been a bad Government but it is hard to be a really really bad Government when it rains money for the whole time of your term and all you have to do is spend and cut taxes. Perhaps if Carps hadn’t embraced the Burke people and then shoot them off one by one it would be a bit better.
I think we should see the poll leaking for what it was and is – an act of desperation. You do not say we are going to get stuffed in an election as it sends out the wrong signals. Therefore if they are doing it it is because they really are stuffed. Labor is failing to get a coherent message out – other than we have lots of money. Ironically by truncating the election and using the Olympics as cover they have stopped themselves from being able to focus on the Libs and show up their lack of policy. Currently all people are thinking is truth in sentencing, RPH and they hate Jim McGinty. I do think Carps looks a bit arrogant but I think they have annoyed people by going early and they don’t have convincing narrative. Labor needs to change tack and focus on the Libs as a whiole, the last four years etc. Otherwise it is cactus.
Also how come the CSA are running anti labor ads do they have a death wish ?
Wow, Centrebet still offering great odds for the Libs @ $4.25 – much better than Sportsbet. Makes you wonder about the disparity.
Might be a good time to put a bit of money on them.
Legislative Council calculators now up at
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/
“Wow, Centrebet still offering great odds for the Libs @ $4.25 – much better than Sportsbet.”
I’ve tried to find the Sportsbet odds and can’t find them. What are they A-C?
oops, meant ‘Sportingbet’
http://sportingbet.com.au/uipub/sport.aspx?l1id=34&l2id=951444&l3id=951445
For those thinking Labor is in as much trouble as they say they are in, why would you release such figures if it really was the case? Why would you want to exacerbate the problem? As I said earlier, now you want to believe Labor polling. If it were the other way you’d be saying, “Come on, pull the other one.” Not necessarily because it was showing Labor in front but because it was Labor polling.
“A work colleague who had to ask who the premier was said that add convinced him to vote for whomever that other guy is.”
If you went by the number of stories I read like this before the last Qld election you’d expected Beattie to have been wiped out.
I think that you believe it as if you were saying look this is serious and putting out crooked figures you’d show how close it was not an electoral wipe out. There can be no logic to that position. You only do it if its true because people think you will win and the polling also says people don’t rate the Libs so you try to change the dynamic. Like putting a cats nose in its own poo. I don’t say it is all over but that Labor are in deep do do – if their polling has gone done the plug in a week it can come back but look at Barnet he also looks like a guy about to win.
Effectively the Libs are asking for voters to support a minority Liberal govt propped up by the Nats who will claim a right of veto over any govt policy they dislike. If the media actually focused on this it would be good for Labor
Ok – thought I’d re-enter the fray after a long-ish hiatus (induced primarily by the unpleasant tone of many comments on the previous thread).
1. Polls are polls – as they say, there’s only one poll that matters. I am slightly surprised at the size of the swing but not at all surprised that there is one. IMHO many people were unhappy with the government (and while I won’t agree that they are a particularly good one I will agree that they certainly aren’t particularly bad) and had generally been left with a slightly unpleasant taste in the mouth – even if they couldn’t precisely identify what it was.
2. I have been both impressed and disappointed in Brendan Grylls. On the one hand I think he has done an impressive job of leading his party and marking the clear differentiation between them and ‘the other guys’. They have positioned themselves as unabashedly the bushies, not just Libs with Akubras. Good for them – it creates for them a clear and natural constituency and allows them to focus their efforts. Of course, it also to a large extent condemns them to always be on the fringes UNLESS they can parley their position into real power. When he says he isn’t interested in doing deals with the Libs for coalition/cabinet (but he is prepared to be ‘bribed’ by a ridiculous deal to disproportionately spend money in the regions) I don’t take him to be saying he won’t do deals EVER but to simply be reinforcing the Nats independent stance.
4. I also think that the attack ads by the ALP will turn perhaps as many people off and it will work on. It seems a pretty desperate tactic for a government who is supposed to be touting all their wonderful achievements.
4. Last point – I think that although most people won’t voice it they recognise the cynicism in going to the polls this early and although they may not consciously punish the government for it, it adds to the nasty after-taste mentioned above.
Heaven help us if we vote someone like “Sniffer” in to be our State Treasurer?!?!?!…….He cant even run a back-water council like Busselton without sending it broke. I dont think a campaign about that scary fact is negative at all….its the nightmarish reality under a Liberal Government!
looks like “Sniffer” will have to go off site to top himself up now that Parliament is a “dry” workplace.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/22/2343730.htm
As a fairly ignorant observer of Western Australian politics, the thing that strikes me most about the commentary is how very uncertain most people are about what is going on. It seems to me tha tpeople are trying out various narratives *sic* to see if they will fit but there appears to be little confidence about it.
Is it because things are close? Is it because lots of folk are undecided? Is it because the choices are an unattractive Tweedledum and Tweedledee? is there some loosening in the entrails of the polity that has yet to congeal?
Anyway, to an outsider, it is interesting watching the tentative nature of much of the commentary. Apart from anything else, it does not gel at all with the disparity in the betting odds.
But on the other hand will Barnett put a ban on his ministers dealing with Noel Chrichton-Browne, in particular Troy Buswell.
If he doesn’t, then exposes the Libs as hypocrites over their attacks on Burke.
Frank – no question NCB is poison and it would be smart to put a ban in place IF it ever becomes an issue – if not, why bother.
As for Orange – the only people who will have to worry about voting (or not) for ‘Sniffer’ are the lucky people of Vasse who live in one of the most beautiful regions of the country. And they don’t get a say on what cabinet post he may (or may not) be appointed to.
Boer – you’re right. You would think that an ALP win would/should be a foregone conclusion but it is clear that most people are not as certain as the bookies.
Basically that is his argument, and he even opposes the use of shuttle busses to ferry stuff from the areas which are available.
May I suggest that Nurses who work the same shift and live near each other consider carpooling ?
But “the media” here in WA, are doing the hardest to elect a Liberal Govt, in particular the West Australian and radio 6PR, through Burke associate Bob Maumill have conducted a concerted campaign against Labor on every front imaginable.
Meanwhile the Libs release their Helath Policy.
I like this bit.
I wonder if the Doctors would be willing to give up their weekends to do more operations ?
Also, The Libs will build a multi-storey carpark at Sir Charles Gardiner Hospital as well to appease Olson
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=93417
from the Morgan thread.
VPL…”the only people who will have to worry about voting (or not) for ‘Sniffer’ are the lucky people of Vasse who live in one of the most beautiful regions of the country. And they don’t get a say on what cabinet post he may (or may not) be appointed to.”
Lets hope the people of Vasse spare us all the potential of that nightmare becoming a reality!
Whether he is given the Treasurer portfolio or some other portfolio, its almost a cert that he’ll get something (deal done to step down etc, etc)…….that in itself is outrageous! The scary thing is that Lib’s could just get up.
Perhaps if insider is still lurking he could tell us who the strategy group is?
Carps? Big Bad Bill? Joe Bullock?
Maumill is campaigning for the Libs? Paul (Knowallus Blowhardus) Murray is doing his best for Barnett.
From the Perth Now story on Libs Health Announcement.
Which proves that Olson is a Liberal Patsy.
I wonder if the Libs will reintroduce Workplace Agreements ?
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24223692-5017005,00.html
From Crikey.
Interesting to note that the biggest news story today isn’t the poll leaking, nor the Liberals Health Announcement, but the closing of the Member’s Bar
William, you quote Joe Poprzeczny as saying:
‘When it comes to’? But that’s not what it comes to! No such initiative rests with the Governor. He doesn’t have to decide who he wants to offer the power to form a government after an election. After the election the incumbent Premier (Carpenter) will still be Premier. An election does not terminate his commission. The initiative will rest with him. If Labor wins a majority in the Legislative Assembly, he can simply continue as Premier without any action by the Governor being required. If the Liberals win a majority in the Legislative Assembly, Carpenter will resign and (if it’s necessary or appropriate) formally advise the Governor to invite Barnett to form a government. If neither of those things happen, the initiative will still rest with Carpenter. He may decide that he has no chance, resign, and probably advise the Governor to send for Barnett–but at that point the initiative does pass from him to the Governor, who can act as he sees fit, with or without the outgoing Premier’s advice. Or the Premier may decide not to resign at once and to have Parliament meet in order to test his support, possibly (if he sees fit) after negotiating with cross-benchers.
The point is that no election result, by itself, requires the Governor to take the initiative on the basis of a judgement about who should have the chance to form a government. The Governor will only be required to act on the basis of the response by the politicians to the election result, which in most situations will settle the matter and in nearly all will give him very strong guidance.
Dr Harry Phillips on why the ALP have leaked internal polling.
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audio/audio/200808/20080822-harry-phillips.mp3
Peter Kennedy on the Week in Politics.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/08/22/2343340.htm
104 Frank – This bloke makes a lot of sense.
Yep, Dr Phillips, along with David Black are two of WA’s most respected political analysts, and are usually on the money, unly Peter Van Osolen, who’s pretty shallow by comparison.
Yes, that’s all consistent with my understanding, J-D.
that should read unlike
Is Brendan popular over there? He’ll be standing right beside Colin.
Good question, knowing how the West are spinning the anti-Rudd stuff it could be a plus, or a minus – hard to tell.
So, William, you and I both understand how the system works but Joe Poprzeczny seemingly doesn’t.
Foreign Minister, and former WA State ALP Secretary Stephen Smith on the Election.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/22/2344043.htm
GB – “Is Brendan popular over there? He’ll be standing right beside Colin.”
Brendan who??
Stephen Smith on Perth Now.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24223963-948,00.html
Antony Green’s Election Calculator based on the 7% swing, if replicated state wide.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/calculator/?wa=-1.3&retiringfactor=1
Will people in other states (e.g. Victoria) be able to watch the Barnett v Carpenter debate? Maybe on Sky (cable) or something – anyone know?
I believe one of the conditions was that the debate be available for streaming on the various news sites such as thewest.com.au and Perth Now.
No Frank, this is a 7% swing
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/calculator/?wa=-7&retiringfactor=1
And people should have a go at the LC calculators. It’s surprising how easy it is to elect Family First or Christian Democrat members in Agricultural and South-West, and also a National Party MLC in Mining and pastoral.
http://www2b.abc.net.au/Elections/View/SenateCalculator.aspx?e=2&ca=emet
Mark Olson on Ch10 on the Liberal Health Plan.
“I’m glad someone has finally thought of the car parking situation” (paraphrasing.
Nothing about the extra nurses or doctors or waiting lists, but a bloody car park
The man’s a joke.
I gave the LC calcs a quick go, Antony, and its remarkably difficult to get the two current Green MLCs elected – and on past figures Family First got up in SW. That said, I probably didn’t change the figures enough from the default 2005 ones, so I’m really working off ancient assumptions.
Also – I think there might be a double-up of Franklin’s figures in the Tas state redistribution calculations, I don’t remember Lyons being quite that enthusiastic about either the ALP or the Gs. (that said – thank you so much for that – the state figures were bloody interesting)
Antony 119: That post should be spoken with a Paul Hogan accent.
Also, why are the Nationals running in East Metro? As a former country boy I’ll be happy to preference then fairly high up, but this area is hardly the country. A bit odd…
I assuming it’s because of the semi-rural areas of Swan Hills which includes Grape Growers in the Swan Valley, Hobby Farmers in Gidgegannup etc.
Except they’re also running in North Metro and South Metro. I suggest they’re doing it for leverage in preference negotiations.
Barnett reckons calling an election early was “Unfair”
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24224807-5017005,00.html
Josh@122. That’s because the two provinces the Green currently represent had 7 members, and now they only have 6. Under the old system, if Labor and the Liberals each had 43% and the Greens 7%, the two majors had 3.4 quotas and the Greens 0.58, and the majors’ surplus would elect a Green
With 6 members, the two majors have 3 quotas and would promptly fill all 6 seats. Green prospects are better in East and South Metro where the quota has fallen than in North metro and South-west. I don’t know why the Greens agreed to this change.
William,
Interview with Alan Carpenter after the ad break – can you record and Youtube it for our Eastern Bludgers ?
126 Frank – Is he setting out his excuse for losing already? He needs to get over the “poor me” act pretty quickly and get on with it.
Josh @ 122, The Franklin figures are right, but I’d actually got the wrong numbers for Lyons. Labor’s vote should have been higher, the Greens lower.
Sure thing – thanks for clearing those two things up.
It seems the WA Police Union don’t like the Liberals mandatory sentencing for assaulting Police to apply to youths, despite helping the Liberal Party to draft the laws.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=93266
“Well, would it be clever to jump into the Olympic swimming pool five seconds before the other competitors?”
The libs, like any other party should be on election footing within a year of an election, they only have themselves to blame for being unprepared.
If Barnett wants a parable, it is more like the tortoise and the hare, with the libs as the hare installing Buswell who raced off ahead when installed, stopped to sniff a bottom, raced off again, stopped to undo some underwear, took off again, stopped to do something, god knows what, with a quokka, then keeled over when the tortoise made his move and had to be replaced.
For our Eastern States bludgers, here is how Fuelwatch prices are promoted on the evening news – this is from 2002-3.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=MOsT-vlyAhI
The big benefit I see from fuel is it may stop those 20c + hikes we see in a day, we had one yesterday.
The majors may try it on, but if an independent only hikes 5c they will pick up a heap of business as they are stuck with those prices for the day.
Frank no wonder Barnett was so sad in your 126. He’s decided to outunderdog the underdogs.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24223963-948,00.html
Yep, and you note the last sentence re only answering 2 questions from the floor. I wonder if the Journalists were from The West and were Dorothy Dixers ?
Just got a call from “Nationwide Polling” polling Swan Hills, but would’nt divulge who they were polling for – so I refused
Oh and they cited the Privacy Act for not divulging who they were polling for.
Had a look in the electronic white pages, and there is nothing listed.
Ex ABC TV News,
Barnett refuses to rule out banning MP’s from dealing with Lobbyists like Burke, Grills and Chricchton-Browne.
Talk about hypocrisy.
Frank,
There are specific privacy principles which apply to market & social research. If divulging the name of the client may influence responses (and it often does with political research), researchers are within their rights not to tell you the client. However, they are obliged to tell you who the client is after the interview is completed (if you ask). So not sure why you refused – could have been interesting.
Don’t like doing surveys without knowing who the client is -which is my right. If companies aren’t upfront about who thy’re doing the research for, then it isn’t a credible survey – when writteb surveys are sent you are always told who the client is and what purpose it’s for, why can’t it apply to phone surveys, for all I know it could be someone gathering information to break into my home.
Frank,
Nationwide Market Research operates out of East Victoria Park. They are listed on the AMSRS site. They are are a registered market research fieldwork company. If you’d done the interview maybe you could have told us something of interest.
That’s beside the point, I prefer people were upfront about which organisation they are doing research for.
I said I would only participate if I was told who the client was, the caller refused, so the call was ended.
It’s their loss, not mine.
I’d encourage people to do phone surveys. It’s often very illuminating in terms of the subject and how they ask the questions. And you can usually work out who the client is. And Frank, market research companies don’t usually break into people’s homes.
That’s beside the point, ANY crook can make up a name similar to Nationwide’s and dupe the caller into divulging information.
As I said, if they told me who the client was, I’d be happy to take part, they didn’t – so I refused.
As is MY right as a person.
At this stage Carpenter may well be happy with a very narrow win. You can forget uniform swings in this election. There was little uniformity in the 2007 WA swings.
Respect your right not to do the phone survey Frank.
We choose to read your thoughts, they’d actually get paid to do it.
Not sure who’s better off. We’re allowed to switch off. They’d have to listen.
A couple of Transcripts from last Friday’s Stateline (I note there was no election stories this week.)
Story on the reinvented National Party fighting for survival
http://www.abc.net.au/stateline/wa/content/2006/s2338672.htm
Studio Interview with Independent MP Liz Constable.
http://www.abc.net.au/stateline/wa/content/2006/s2338678.htm
frank
you seem to rattle the fibs somewhat
keep up the good work
ps does your 5-10 seats still stand or is my 2-4 seats looking more likely
ta muchly
I aim to please
I think your 2-4 seats is more the probable, than my 5-10, but you never know until Antony Green calls it
Kevin, the federal swings in WA varied from 4.62 to Labor in Forrest, to 2.49 to Liberal in Cowan.
12 of the 15 seats swung 0.5-4% to Labor. That’s fairly uniform.
The small number of seats makes it difficult for the Mackerras cancelling to work perfectly. But its arguably more plausible (with a bit of give or take) when there are a larger number of seats.
hmm, Smiths Beach may come back to bite Buswell on the Bum.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/22/2343183.htm
Another “Straw Poll” from Perth Now.
Is Alan Carpenter in for a rude shock with the State Election results?
I think his reign is doomed
62%
He’ll be all smiles with a win
20%
It’s too close to call
17%
Total votes
Total of 839 votes
Unfortunately Frank that straw poll’ may as well hav said 100% think Carpenter will win or 100% think Carpenter will lose
In close elections such as i think this one will be , absence of key electorate polling makes estimates dificult to predict
Facebook Page for Colin Barnett.
http://www.new.facebook.com/profile.php?id=883415051&refurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.new.facebook.com%2Fs.php%3Fk%3D100000004%26id%3D9256860294%26gr%3D2%26sf%3Dp%26s%3D20#/group.php?gid=32525716342
Here are the results of the Miss Maud “Coffee Bean Poll” for the 2007 Federal Election, which has always shown a Liberal victory. (note, I’ve edited the quote to save space, but the full release and photos are at the URL below)
http://www.missmaud.com.au/TopLinks/whatsnew/tabid/64/ArticleID/51/Default.aspx
Various videos of the Liberal Party Scarborough campaign including the Candidate Launch for Liza Harvey and a Community Law & Order Forum in Kingsley
http://au.youtube.com/user/nihongo02341
Here’s another completely unscientific poll: the Miss Maud’s coffee bean poll, spotted at Belmont Forum this arvo. (F5… I see you’ve posted about it already Frank.)
Liberals: 230
Labor: 160
Greens: 140
Democrats: 40 (are they even running at this election?)
‘Other’: um, a few.
Nationals: a couple of beans, nowhere near the first mark.
A bit funny, considering this is down the street from Eric Ripper’s office, and I don’t imagine he’s worried about his seat. I tried those numbers in Antony’s calculator for East Metro (giving 10 to ‘Other’, calling the Democrats ‘Other’ as well, and 5 to the Nats), and came up with 3 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Grn. Who knows, it might happen. I’d be surprised if the Greens get 24% of the vote, though.
I wonder if they allow multiple voting over several visits, ie 1 bean per person, or 1 bean per visit. It’s quite easy to rig if you go there everyday for lunch and the staff don’t remember you’d already voted, or it’s quite easy for the libs to pay people to go there for lunch or even to buy a cake.
Oh and I think Belmont Forum is also near to several old people’s homes/retirement villages who only discovered they’ve been screwed over by the Federal Govt since Nov last year
Belmont Forum is in the middle of suburban hell… actually Cloverdale, despite the name. Not a good place to be on Thursday nights. I went to a ‘community forum’ thing put on by Eric the Ripper a few weeks ago, that was mostly old people (plus me, token student, scarfing down all the free sandwiches and biscuits and cake and coffee), and they seemed mostly OK with him – small whinges like not enough 38/39/288 buses, trees on the verge etc. The exception was a guy of about 40 from Rivervale, who was whinging about the percentage of Homeswest in that suburb… “it’s not that I don’t like the people, some of my best friends live in Homeswest”. I think I’ve heard that line before.
Do you actually have to buy a coffee to ‘vote’ in the Mauds thing? (If so, that would definitely skew it towards the kind of people who would actually pay good money for that coffee… I get mine much cheaper elsewhere.) When I went by, the dish of beans and the little scoop was just sitting there out the front. I’d've put a few in for the Greens (because, hey, it’s how I’ll be voting), but it was 5.45pm, which thanks to a certain other vote a few years ago, meant I had to dash to get my shopping done. Hmph.
Here is an article on the 2004 Bean Poll from The Australian.
http://www.missmaud.com.au/write/BeanPollArticle2004Lge.jpg
Here is an AM report on the Bean Poll and how it’s conducted.
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2007/s2100052.htm
The West Australian continues to talk down the idea that Labor is in trouble. From a news report:
From Robert Taylor’s Campaign Sketch:
If Labor “didn’t say” it, how does Taylor know? If nothing is working for Labor, marginal seat polling shows 7 per cent swings, tracking polls are continuing to trend the Liberals way (albeit with diminishing momentum), Labor is feeling “desperate” and they are going to lose “some” seats (remembering that their majority from 2005 wasn’t all that great) surely it is at worst a slight exaggeration for Labor to say “the Liberals would win the election if it were held this weekend”.
For all that, The West sounds confident enough about what it’s reporting that Labor’s tracking poll probably does paint a similar picture to last week’s Westpoll and Newspoll – perhaps slightly worse than the latter. The 7 per cent swing figure was probably selective – no doubt it’s what they were getting from Kingsley. The swing could still have been smaller in the other seats mentioned (Ocean Reef, Swan Hills, Riverton and Jandakot) without contradicting the ABC report that they were “concerned” about them.
Unless the West are talking it down in an attempt to tell the Libs that if they don’t pull their weight, they’ll be f*cked
, but then again, didn’t Stephen Smith say roughly exactly the same thing 2 weeks prior to the 2005 Poll ?
On closer consideration, what Taylor is obviously saying is that the background information (reportable but not attributable) Labor is providing journalists tells a slightly different story to what they are saying on the record – in which case his reporting is not unreasonable.
Isn’t that always the way when you want to get your message out ?
And note that The West weren’t originally in the loop when the polling was first released – Taylor must be royally pissed off by that
, plus Paul Murray has been getting stuck into Grahame Armstrong over at the Sunday Times because he was formally a member of the media team in Premier & Cabinet (though I’ve always found Grahame to be straight down the line).
BTW William, all of the West’s Campaign Sketches are now on The West’s website in the State Election section.
I think Robert Taylor is a bit too close the the Libs and hence he is trying to downplay the Labor polling which a friend in the know tells me is not an exaggeration.
Apparently the ALP is staring down the barrell of a bit protest vote and is trying to unwind it. If Taylor is undermining that it is to help stir and keep high the protest vote. Perhaps feeding the cynical Labor strategy.
I think that assuming the poll is correct we could all be looking at a Barnett Government so anyone who doesn’t want that better go get themselves involved in an ALP marginal somewhere.
This isn’t the greatest Governement in the world but the Libs have been in chaos for three and one half years and have no real coherence or ideas of what to do in Government other than GM and uranium – it would be sad for this great state if they slid in.
The marginal polling, or something similar, would probably have been dumped on the electors today via the local paper had they not been released by Labor on Thursday night.
Readers who have The West as their only source of election information must be amused at all the fuss over a seven percent swing against Labor. Based on the stories there the only surprise is that it isn’t seventeen percent against Labor.
The golden haired, all conquering Liberals who not only have a NT loss to fuel their crusade but also the dubious myth of different political colours being needed to service state and Federal issues are just, natural underdogs according to the latest from The West.
So poorly are the Liberals going that their tongue is hanging out of their mouths and they are slobbering, heat stressed, lame and exhausted as they stagger towards the finishing line. Even losing “momentum” according to the latest comedy sketch in The West today.
This is all rather tiresome. *Of course* Labor is claiming to be in danger of losing. This is how you prevent complacency and stop your base vote leaking to the Greens. *Of course* the Libs / The West are claiming the opposite. This game of “expectations management” should be well known to everyone here by now.
I’m with Adam. There are stories feeding on each other here. I came off air from a very localised NT election three weeks ago to discover the entire room was a twitter with what was the message for Labor in Canberra. If one Labor MP in Darwin hadn’t been offerring to put his tongue where it wasn’t wanted two years ago, he would have held his seat, and the vacuum created by the close result in Fannie Bay wouldn’t have left so much space for speculation.
The laws of politics seem to be following the laws of physics these days and filling political vacuums with political atmosphere. When I had this whinge with a senior journo this morning about how last weekends Newspoll had suddenly become the catalyst for an electoral surge against Labor across the country, they responded “yes but its about the atmospherics”. Such a Canberra view of the world.
Antony
“they responded “yes but its about the atmospherics”
maybe they are meteorologists and no one has had the heart to tell em to their face that politics aint weather forecasting.
the other theory was maybe they are hot air balloonists!
I can’t wait to see the headlines when we finally have a national poll where Labor’s 2-party vote falls below 56%. It’ll be bigger than the relief of Mafeking and about as relevant.
So what can we expect to see over the next fortnight from the local papers? The put away the binoculars theory because the Liberals have the election in the bag or the put the binoculars to your eyes and keep them there because it is going to be a close race theory?
After four years of one theory it is refreshing to see a glimpse of another.
The West was pathetic this morning.
Some giant article on the front page alleging some Ministers are in trouble for being called at witnesses in some police corruption probe
According to the west its a major embarrassment and will affect the campaign yada yada
not one single other media outlet has even bothered to mention it
SeanofPerth, it relly had a bigtime impact on the betting markets too. They are still quoting the Libs at $4.25 the same price as before the story was written.
I am surprised that the seats of North West and Kimberley have not been mentioned yet as possible losses for Labor. The word around the traps is that Indigenous groups will be keen to let Labor know that it shouldn’t take the Aboriginal vote for granted again even if it means four years of Barnett and Buswell to make the point.
The early election also means that there will be a lot of people not on the rolls. Usually there is a lot of work done in signing people up to vote a few months out. It didn’t happen this time and will cost.
Kimberley: not so much, since the Labor MP there is Aboriginal. North West should be interesting, though… Rod Sweetman, who used to be a member up there in the 90’s, is running for the Libs, and the sitting Labor member is retiring. As far as country seats go, I’d rate the Libs’ chances higher in North West than in Collie-Preston or Kalgoorlie. It depends how well the Nats do, too… I’m not sure what their vote’s like up north, but their preferences could push it Sweetman’s way.
Great tactic that. There can few people anywhere who suffer from worse political leadership than Indigenous Australians.
Today’s west was particularly odious but gives Labor an opening if they are smart enough to pick it up. Carps can come out all guns blazing as the corruption fighter draw attention to sacking D’Orasio and take on the West who are being outrageous by drawing Roberts and McGinty in on the basis of nothing whatsoever. He could use lines like you may not like Jim McGinty but no one has ever suggested he is corrupt. Or I have fought corruption in my party and got rid of D’Orasio now the West is trying unfairly with the help of the Libs to sully the names of people no one has accused of anything. An onslaught on the issue is coming from the Libs take it head on or it may bite. He can in doing so play up the corruption fighter side of his ternure which should be at the fore in this campaign.
Spudster, the problem you and the Premier have with your ‘Corruption fighter’ theory is that John D’Orazio was cleared of absolutely everything. No corruption to see there, and he had a lawyer that outsmarted the Premier and Big Bad Bill (who probably still needs lessons in the difference between cash and cheque) so linking him deliberately to corruption is ‘brave’.
So the hundreds of branch members and anyone awake and with half a brain really know the premier’s rejection of John D’Orazio was much more about factional in-fighting than corruption.
Nothing new to factional fighting in Labor, twas always thus, but please don’t give Carpenter any more credit than your average dear leader (remember Adam don’t readtoo literally – Carp’s isn’t North Korean, nor communist).
Claims in 2mws sunday times “newspaper” from Julian Grill that Brian Burke played a big role in elevating Carps to Premier
The Sunday Times is such a rag
I thought everyone knew Burke played the KEY role in making Carps Premier, it is hardly a surprise – think about it.
where I say ‘knew’ I mean kinda assumed …
187 jasmine – has this been proven?
proven? you mean like has anyone looked at the votes in caucus and determined if Burke was the difference.
Unless you were in caucus, I think proof is probably beyond us, but drawing conclusions isn’t.
189 jasmine – I’ll take that as a “no”.
well you can take it any way you like it wasn’t a very insightful question. If you had asked if either my understanding or my conclusion was that Burke was the difference I would have said yes. Proof unless you are in court on trial is a pretty silly concept.
For example have you got proof he wasn’t?
Dear Jasmine,
I don’t agree that D’Orasio was cleared of everthing. What occurred was that the Inspector McCusker determined that the CCC should not make such a finding against JD as it was not within its powers – he did not exonerate JD. What he did as I understand the events was as police minister was that he talked to his mate pasuale Minneti about his speeding fine – as I understand it Pasquale advised him that there was a corrupt policeman who could fix these things. JD, who remember was the police minister then called this policeman to discuss doing so. The fact that he did not proceed surely does not absolve him from this act. If he was fair dinkim he would have reported this. Either he was one of the worlds total incompetents or he considered acting totally inappropriately and did nothing when advised of potentially illegal behaviour. Remember the guy was police minister. His and your defence that he was cleared is simply untrue.
On Burke – we have a corrupt ex pollie whose influence has been destroyed by Carpenter and we consider believing the ex pollie over carps are we all nuts. This is vengeance and we should see it for what it is.
Carpenter has many failings such as naivety and overconfidence but he is about as squeaky clean a pollie as WA will get. I have many criticisms of his time as Premier but he should be supported for taking on the disgraceful influence of certain ex pollies.
I just don’t agree with you spudster. I don’t get how you draw your conclusions. I’m not going to argue.
191 jasmine – Not when it comes down to a politician protecting their good name. How easy it is to throw mud without evidence? I think you’ve shown how easy it is.
Looks like Colin is at it again, this time with a gas pipeline.
www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=261212
Sorry for the link -see if this works.
http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=261212
Well the ‘prove it’ concept is simply an attempt to divert attention from a relevant and fair question, it is not mud-throwing and the influence of Burke both before and after his ‘expulsion’ is pretty obvious to everyone.
I would ask you to explain how he became premier without Burke’s support. Even Carpenter has never said this was the case, he has simply stated he never sought Burke’s support.
That the Sunday Times runs it makes it that much harder for you to close your eyes and pretend it is completely ridiculous until someone you actually are going to believe comes out and says it.
Oh and my last word on the subject and a humorous aside when was the last time a politician had a good name?
“Well the ‘prove it’ concept is simply an attempt to divert attention from a relevant and fair question.” So now we don’t need evidence that something has occurred, let’s just bellieve it anyway because it fits in nicely with our bias. Lovely.
You’re into the “he hasn’t denied it therefore it must be so” camp. What a croc that is.
When can we expect another Newspoll?
Next weekend or hopefully sometime this week?
it hard to tell but i think labor must be favoured to win
with the regional seats (especially the seats which have a alp
sitting member) I would expect to be retained by their current members.
the 3 independent liberals are likely to retain their seats as well
and I think Kalgoorlie is a toss up, once you take away Mr Birney’s person vote
which I think could be worth up to 10%
also the national party is much more independent than one would expect
and HATED by the Liberals
A status quo result with all this could leave only 20 official libs or less in parliament
I don’t expect we’ll get another Newspoll until the day before the election.
Jasmine,
Your comment at 198 is simply wrong – any consideration of how Carpenter became Premier would have to start be considering who has the numbers in the ALP caucus. From what I read Burkes old right faction have very few MP’s hence they only ever managed to get one Minister Norm Marlborough before his fall and in reality it would have been the sworn enemies of Burke the new right and the left who I understand easily had the numbers – so in effect Burke had little chance of getting him or anyone else the premiership. In reality it is more likely Jim McGinty would have been the power broker who sorted it out and last time I looked he was supposed to hate Burke.
Perhaps Burke did get the people he had influence on to vote for Carpenter but since he couldn’t stop it what difference does that make. Carpenter didn’t seek his help. The argument that getting help when you don’t seek it makes you guilty would make Barnett guilty of being in bed with Burke now.
The reality is that Burke and Grill are seeking to stick the knife into the first politician who has actually done them and their influence peddling over. Burke is part myth and has to keep the myth going hence this rubbish about the leadership of the ALP. Why do we keep believing this old has been.
For all Carpenters failings he seems squeaky clean unlike many in WA.
The media is getting carried away with themselves
They did it in 2005 as well, presenting a pathetic opposition as a credible alternative, and the voters werent too stupid to fall for it.
Did anyone see Van Onselens piece of crap in todays sunday times? my god, a new low
Libs launch election campaign
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/24/2344856.htm
The Western Australian Liberal Party has officially launched its election campaign.
Hundreds of Liberal party supporters gathered at the University of Western Australia for the event.
The guests included the Federal Leader Brendan Nelson and the former WA Premier Richard Court.
Independent MP Liz Constable was also present, after joining forces with the Liberals for this election.
Liberal Senator Michaelia Cash told the gathering that the WA Liberals would only be in Opposition for another two weeks.
“Liberal Senator Michaelia Cash told the gathering that the WA Liberals would only be in Opposition for another two weeks.”
Are they all going to join Barnett in retirement in two weeks time?
I’ve heard the claim that the Libs are not currently fit for opposition let alone government but I thought they might have at least let their opponents run that line.
Sean,
do you have a link? what did van onelson say?
Sorry its not online, it was an opinion piece
Just kept on crapping on about the early election, why its so terrible, why Labor is so terrible
Why Colin Barnett is so fantastic…
He did however, say at the end, he still expects Labor to scrape in
Sean, I can’t understand all this obsession about an early election. Didn’t Barnett say, “We’re ready, Bring it on” the day he got elected as Leader?
It’s ridiculous
Barnett spent a fair time whingeing about it at the Perth Press Club yesterday as well
The Libs would have to be morons not to know an early election was coming, they make it out like people are offended about not having to vote in February.
Most people dont even care, and those that do probably already vote Liberal
I dont see how Barnett can expect to win when he’s constantly whingeing about the fact an election is actually being held.
Here’s as much of the Peter van Onselen article as I’m comfortable republishing. I’m not sure that Barnett “has been given the duration of the Olympic Games as a honeymoon period” – it might seem that way to the politically engaged, but I suspect Carpenter was correct in calculating that Barnett’s been starved of oxygen in terms of reaching low-interest swinging voters.
214 It all sounds like most of the assessments that have come out so far. The only thing different his admission that the media have been giving Barnett “a fair go” so far.
It is a debatable point whether this media “doing it for him” actually helps or hinders struggling leaders in a campaign. I suspect the media aren’t quite the help they consider themselves to be.
Lol
Liberals first ad here
http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/
Gawd he looks ridiculous.
216 SeanofPerth – Why doesn’t Barnett just say he believes in motherhood? This ad tells us nothing really, except he doesn’t like the early election.
A quote from the article William quotes above:
“Carpenter didn’t give Barnett the traditional Aussie fair go, so the media have done it for him …”
Oh please… I don’t even know where to start with this one.
216 I prefer this Liberal party piece from the day before the election was called.
“We are in election mode.”
“This is a different election than 5 years ago”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/08/06/2326359.htm
Re The Ad – What a bloody Whinger – no policies no vision.
Re Burke, Grill’s only doing it to help Burke, nothing more and the public, according to the ALP polling haven’t seen Burke as a factor.
Van Onsolon – former Howard Staffer – He’s the richard Wilkins of Political Analysis :-0)
Jasmine is using the same line as she did in the Karaoke incident – she’s like D’Oerazio wwho won’t let go – he honestly thinks he’s the Messiah, but he’s a *
*Testa Di Cazzo
(Richard Cranium in Italian)
Hmm, Barnett entered UWA to Vanessa Amorosi’s “Absolutely Everybody” – the last time one of her songs was used, in Ansett’s case “Shine” THe Company went bust
Frank probably up there with his 2005 effort when Barnett entered the room to “Suicide is Painless” – the theme from MASH …
The conservatives are finally awake. Some negative comments have appeared on my Laborview Kimberley Community Cabinet videos on Youtube and Teachertube. Optimism is not well placed at this stage. Don’t think West Australians get Carpenter. He’s not a run of the mill politician. Almost as genuinely eccentric as Alannah McTiernan who deserves a national profile.
224 Kevin, I was actually reading a Teachers union thread about half an hour ago from the day the election was called and they weren’t happy at all.
teachers are pathetic. the union is anyway. they feel entitled to pay equivalent to doctors for 1/3 of the work. i dont find a lot of sympathy for teachers in the general community that i meet and their greedy demands.
I think you’ll find that the Teachers Union has been split with a faction who are aligned with PLATO- the anti Outcomes Based Education lobby group. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re the ones stirring the pot for the Libs and re trying to stonewall the current teacher’s pay offer, which the main Union body have accepted “in principle”.
It was Plato.
http://platowa.com/index1.html
The Libs put teacher’s pay increase at the centre of their campaign launch today.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24230111-5008620,00.html
And note that is in addition to any pay rise currently being voted on.
Is it a bad thing if the Liberals want to increase teachers pay? I dont understand whats wrong with that in a WA context?
I think you’ll find that the Teachers Union has been split with a faction who are aligned with PLATO- the anti Outcomes Based Education lobby group.”
So add elements of the teachers union to the nurses union and another union, was it the police union?, who are dissing labor and are pro liberal.
Do you think maybe Carpenter should run a ” beware of the union (boo) bosses campaign” if the the libs are voted in?
There has been a long and protracted and often bitter pay dispute between the State School Teachers Union and the Govt, with the union threatening to campaign in marginal seats. At present the union has agreed to an in principle agreement on Pay & Conditions.
The Union Podcast is here.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=6YEaf6pW8ac&eurl=http://www.sstuwa.org/
And the pay deal negotiated is here.
http://sstuwa.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=706&Itemid=1
Unfortunately, there is the splinter group I mentioned above who are driving the no vote, this splinter group had attempted to vote their members onto the executive, but failed.
For Barnett to come as the “Fairy Godmother” at an Election is cynical in the extreme.
ESJ,
It’s a well known fact that teachers and police can rely on Liberal promises. Just look what happened in Victoria in the 90s under Kennett.
Careful what you wish for, eh. You just might get it.
It does seem a bit of a trend though GG, public sector unions complaining about State Labor Governments.
It would seem logical to me that a public sector union (of all unions) would want to keep at least the appearance of distance or neutrality between the major parties.
Besides hoeing into public sector workforce isnt necessarily popular as per Kennet, no GG?
Agreed that it is a cynical move by Barnett to support wage increases for public school teachers.
However, unions have been very successful over recent years in attracting public support for their issues. The recent teachers EBA negotiations in Victoria are just one example. The general public actually supported the teachers industrial action and the Government eventually gave the union much of what they wanted.
Unconditional union support for Labor is no longer guaranteed – just like Labor support for workers interests is no longer guaranteed. So the unions have been fighting their campaigns on issues – which party delivers the best result for their members is less important.
ESJ,
PS unions not supporting Labor Givernments is pure folly. Show me any example where Unions are better off with a Liberal Government. Really, it is support Labor or the knackery.
Sometimes the turkeys vote for Christmas.
Do you think unions will be around in 10 years time GG?
Of course if Labor put the teachers’ demands at the centre of their campaign they would be pandering to unions wouldn’t they?
GB, LOL
Do you unions actually still exist in WA? Didnt they die and nobody noticed?
240 Edward – you tell me Edward, I have no idea.
Kevin Reynolds and the CFMEU have been strangely silent since Shelley Archer decided to quit politics – this was the union behind Brian Burke.
But to answer your question Unions WA (the peak body) are still around but haven’t been very vocal this time around.
To quote from one of the comments on Perth Now regarding Stephen Smiths warning of a Liberal Win from “Andrew of Perth”, a very interesting tidbit about who introduced Outcome Based Education which the Libs are so opposed to – it seems it was introduced by Colin Barnett himself.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/comments/0,21590,24223963-5017005,00.html
That’s interesting Frank, I wonder if Labor will make a lot of this over the next couple of weeks.
Actually found this speech Barnett made in 2006 which is interesting where he is defending Outcome Based Education.
http://www.mp.wa.gov.au/colinbarnett/Publications/OBE%20Parliament%20Speech%2017%20May%202006.pdf
William,
Anything of note from Robert Taylor – does he describe the Liberal Party Launch as the Second Coming ?
Looks like Taylor’s had the day off.
Sean of Perth @ 226
“teachers are pathetic. the union is anyway. they feel entitled to pay equivalent to doctors for 1/3 of the work. i dont find a lot of sympathy for teachers in the general community that i meet and their greedy demands.”
I feel another ‘oh please’ attack coming on. If teaching was so easy and such lazy work for good money you wonder why there are teacher shortages!
I’ll tell you what is easy and lazy, bashing teachers and supporting it by saying that the public is on your side.
Well break out the champagne, bring out the dancing girls, no need for the last two weeks of the campaign because the Liberals have as good as won according to the Australian.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24235181-5006789,00.html
Did I miss something…. or has no one commented on the south west gas line?
from Bunbury to Albany ? promised by the liberals
It runs through 3 marginal seats !
AND APPEARS THE COSTINGS ARE WRONG !
Is this similar to the canal from Broome?
Pfft
As if The West Australian would let that become an issue
Mick, it was mentioned at 196 and 197. Labor needs to make a big play on this. This smells of “the canal’. What else will Barnett get wrong? Can he be trusted in government to get it right?
Mick I haven’t seen any costings for “Colin’s colon” yet. What is the problem with them?
Well, calling the Olympic fortnight a honeymoon period for Colin is one way of looking at it.
Another would be to say that we’ve had a fortnight in which voters haven’t been reminded why they didn’t vote for a Barnett government in 2005.
Whilst I wouldn’t be so rash as to make a firm prediction, I wouldn’t be particularly surprised if the Libs tank in the polls now that Col’s getting some air time.
The government claims they have already done the study on this and found that, for the expense involved, too few people will benefit by it.
And according to the West, Absolutely Everybody was Geoff Gallops 2001 Election Theme Song
Can’t the Libs get ANYTHING right ?
“Rock anthem”?
Intellectual Bogan, you want < and > for tags rather than [ and ]. This mistake gets made often enough that I assume platforms other than WordPress do it differently.
Word from Ch9 studios, is that the worm gave the debate to Carpenter.
Apparently no big hits, no tax cuts and no canal.
“Rock anthem”?
More like “Chicken Rock” as it was I think written and produced by Mark Holden – nuff said.
Mre perth media/politics trivia, Mar Holden’s movie Blue Fire Lady was written by none other than Burkie’s good mate and chief Carpenter critic, Bob Maumill.
thewest.com.au reports no big policy announcements were made
*yawns* so no point watching the worm tonight then?
262 jasmine – but Jasmine you’re a neutral observer aren’t you?
Are the Libs raising expectations too much, anything less than victory will be seen as a major let down.
and here is the article.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=93947
and as explained earlier, due to the downsizing of facilities at STW 9 by it’s owner’s WIN corporation, the Station doesn’t have the facilities to do a live multi-camera broadcast – in fact their Master Control is in Wollongong.
I think it is brilliant the way the pipeline can be announced without the supposed partner being advised.
“Mr Barnett said he had not spoken to Western Power about the plan, but believed they would be a suitable partner for the project.”
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=93642
I second Col’s claim that Labor “won” the audience, but have to add that apparently about 50% of the audience was undecided at the end.
Centrebet has finally cut its odds on a Liberal win – from $4.25 to $4.00.
I hear a rumour that a deal was done amongst the Lib powerbrokers which meant that Troy Buswell would step down as leader but only if Colin Barnett promised him the Shadow Treasurer position. Colin would take up the leadership and according to the polls this would put the Libs in a much better position of winning. Colin agreed to stay in the leadership for a year, enough time for Troy to show that he had grown up and was responsible enough to be Premier. Colin would step down and take his retirement as planned, Troy would become leader and Deidre Willmott will be brought into Parliament in the Cottesloe by election.
Of course, InsideWA. But I’ll only believe it when it’s published in Inside Cover.
What a Surprise – NOT. Even Blind Freddie could see that scam coming from a million miles away.
That “rumour” should be distributed far and wide
Yes I could see it as well but sources say they have seen an e-mail confirming it!
Well why don’t they release it?
Hmm, so Barnett isn’t going to promise Tax Cuts.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/25/2345751.htm
*laughs* I’m not going back to the other debate there is no point, but rumor is fine for you Frank, so long as it is a liberal rumor. Just the Labor ones you need definite proof for?
And I’m curious Frank why do you hate normal branch members? You come out of one of those strong unions that benefit from the fewer real branch members there are?
Hmm, Greens not Preferencing Labor in Cockburn
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/25/2345694.htm
I am NOT a member of any Union. I am a norm al rank and file member who believe it or not support the Party through thick and thin – unlike yourself who only supports it when you feel like it.
“unlike yourself who only supports it when you feel like it.” What? Are you telling me Jasmine is a Labor supporter? Hell, with supporters like that who needs enemies.
Yep, she outed herself when she stated she had an argument with Bill Johnson over the Party’s new policy of not accepting Cash Memberships except in person at Party Office, which was introduced to further prevent branch stacking where certain people would pay fo multiple memberships out of their own pocket.
I am a supporter, just not a cheerleader.
Now I can consign most of Jasmine’s comments to the “sour grapes” bin.
And I certainly did not ever discuss the amendment with Bill either before or after.
And I can consign you to the ‘members are great so long as they don’t dare voice an opinion’ bin. It is a large bin Gary you have lots of friends.
No, not at all. First of all I’m not a member and never have been. I’m wondering why you still are one? It sounds to me like you should do you and the party a favour and move outside the tent. Maybe to the DLP?
Oh really, then why did you say this then ?
Because Bill was in the media discussing it publicly. I was trying to make it clear this had been publicly discussed and wasn’t inside secrets.
Today’s Peter Kennedys’ This Week in Politics report.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/08/22/2343340.htm
Whoops, that’s Friday’s, which I had already posted.
The Wests updated article re debate that Frank posted before now says carps won 57-43
Pre-debate, Centrebet had them at $1.20 ALP, $4.00 Lib……it will interesting to see the odds tomorrow.
SoP “The Wests updated article re debate that Frank posted before now says carps won 57-43″
I cant find the story you’re referring to. Do you have the link?
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=93947
“Mr Carpenter came out marginally ahead overall on the worm’s verdict, with 57 percent of the voting studio audience declaring him the winner and 43 per cent declaring Mr Barnett the winner.”
Strange description that – “marginally ahead”. 57 -43 is marginal is it?
But this is The West we are talking about here, they’ll do anything to spin their man Colin
– even if it’s to talk down the worm and the ALP internal polling story.
“However, there is expected to be much argument about the verdict which will be delivered by the worm given that only 30 members of the studio audience were handed the device which records their responses as the debate unfolds.”
Would they be questioning this if the result was in favour of their Colin intead?
Surely a random selection is fair enough although why not poll the whole audience?
Make that “instead”.
Of course not, why do you think they called the debate a “fizzer” ? As I said, they’re doing their hardest for Colin, after dumping on him last time because of the Canal.
The Libs, in announcing their School Behaviour Management policy, are sending mixed messages on Law & Order regarding police resources.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=94026
Hmm, Libs odds are shortening according to Sportingbet.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/25/2345938.htm
ABC TV coverage of the Liberal Launch.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/08/25/2345114.htm
And here is the CORRECT link to Today’s Election Update from Peter Kennedy.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/08/25/2345319.htm
Frank, that was a great video of the Liberal Party launch. Painting on a blank canvass you could say.
WACOSS has launched its election campaign:
http://www.wacosselection2008.org/
(Full disclosure: I work for WACOSS).
PS There has been some coverage of the WACOSS campaign launch here and here. The launch was also covered by Nine, Ten and the ABC.
I like this on Solar Panels.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/25/2345987.htm
Re Solar Panels, here is a more extensive article from The West.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=94018
Talk about the Liberal 10 minutes Frank 300 by PK.
But it should be noted that Eoin cameron, the host was the former Liberal Member for Stirling in the First Howard Government.
WA Libs at $4.00 cf. $3.50 about Helen Clark says much about the way Barnett supporters feel about his real chances.
Longer odds than HC – and she’s a goner!
And to rub salt… Labor in NSW is $1.90! LOL
ALP Print Ad targeting Barnett.
http://www.visionwa.org.au/images/notocolin.pdf
And here is the TV ad.
http://visionwa.org.au/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=5&Itemid=35
I think Labor are on the right track with those ads. Remind voters that to vote for the Libs is a risk. It feeds into the perception that they are not fit to govern. Going after popular causes is not a recipe for succes. If it was Baillieu would be Premier now.
I saw 3 ALP ads on both Ch 7 & 10 between 4.30pm and 5.30 pm, and not 1 Liberal ad.
Says it all really.
Just saw a preview of the Debate on Ch 9 – As soon as Barnett started to defend Buswell the Worm went into the Red, and went up when Carpenter reminded the audience on how the Libs protected and promoted him to leader.
hrmm the debate was fun
the panel was stacked with pro-liberal journos, but Carps did excellent, he really got into his groove in the second half
barnett just fell to pieces, arrogant, rude and plain unconvincing
I also just finished watching the ‘debate’ – bit lacklustre IMHO.
As for Labor’s ‘don’t risk it’ line – I don’t see it getting a lot of traction… maybe it’s just me but the names in the Libs are already well known – they’re not new, young, surprising, unpredictable or even particularly risky to my way of thinking…
Ok – now as to the debate… Peter Van Onselen made his mandatory appearance and his comments were fairly obvious I thought.
I thought Barnett did indeed start strongly but weaken as it went along – Carps did the reverse. Carps presents better (presumably in part because of his media background) but neither landed any big blows. Barnett tried to stay on message regardless of the question – bit annoying at times. Both were fairly conciliatory on many issues which was a little disappointing.
Was not very surprised with the voting at the end – winner was 57% to Carps (IIRC) and pref party 20/23/57% Lab/Lib/Undecided… meaning that it’s still all there to play for.
It also reinforces the peculiar position we see in WA where everyone thinks Labor will win but there’re a lot of people voting the other way…
Yep, both SeanofPerth and VPL have summed up the debate perfectly.
And did you notice Barnett did not answer Dixie’s question re the “Biggest Moral Mistake” ? Also Buswell and lack of Women is still the Elephant in theRoom for the Libs, and note that Barnett has made a half-hearted backflip on banning his ministers dealing with Burke, Grills and more importantly Noel Chrichton-Browne. In the first instance, he should dump Buswell as shadow treasurer now
If he doesn’t it means he won’t deliver on it.
That sounds about right, VPL. To begin with, response to Barnett was pretty positive, sticking to remarks that Labor had squandered the boom, along with raising the issue of trust over links to Brian Burke. To begin with, Carps got thrown questions on personality and arrogance, although I expected nothing less from Robert Taylor. Carps deflected these, but hovered around neutral.
Come the second half, Barnett dodged questions and struggled with his party’s issues with women and Troy Buswell. These saw sharp declines in his support, and Carps performed strongly in this half.
PerthNow called the debate unremarkable, declaring that Carps and Barnett stuck to pre-rehearsed attack lines, and announced nothing new during the debate (which Barnett did last time with his canal). It also noted that 50 people were in the studio audience.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24241370-2761,00.html
The West’s website called the debate a ‘fizzer’ for much the same reasons. However, the West remarked that only 30 people were given voting doohickeys, which it claims puts both the worm and end-game voting into suspicion.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=93947
What is utterly remarkable is that NEITHER report gave the end results, which stated Carps won the debate by over 10%, and that the Libs were very slightly preferred, with over half the voters going for the “Other/Undecided” category.
Perth Now has finally posted their report on the debate, which they delayed like the broadcast itself.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24241370-948,00.html
Perthnow didnt mention the 57% result for Carps, or even mention that he won. I wonder if they would call the debate unremarkable if Barnett won?
Though I wouldn’t be surprised if other media outlets were forbidden to release the figures as the program was pre-recorded and nine wanted to release the figures during the debate itself.
I don’t think you can conclude too much from one debate one way or the other really. Some here are reading too much into it. I wonder how many people watched it.
they have changed their story
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24241370-948,00.html
“Worm marks Carps the winner” with the full results
On the subject of women in Parliament. The Queensland Parliament has 29 women in the 89 seat parliament. Labor 23, Liberal 1, National 2, Independent 2
Labor Liberal National Independent
Attwood Stuckey Menkens Cunningham
Barry Simpson Leelong
Bligh Pratt
Boyle
Croft
Darling
Grace
Jarrett
Jones
Keech
Kiernan
Lavarch
Male
Miller
Nelson-Carr
Nolan
Reilley
Smith
Spence
Stone
Struthers
Sullivan
Van Listenburg
And the comments on Perth Now are so predictable, They must have had their comments sitting in a word file ready to be posted
Anna Winter on the Debate at Larvatusprodeo
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/25/no-alarms-and-no-suprises/#more-7051
I think the debate would have reminded a lot of people about why they didnt vote for Colin Barnett, he’s so uninspiring and lacks any sort of charm or relate to the people factor. I think people will begin to drift back to Labor
I agree, but I’m worried that not many people watched it as it was shown on the low-rating Ch 9, instead of Ch 7 or the ABC. I know the ABC couldn’t do it as their studios are being fitted out for use as the Tally Room, but you’d think that the ABC could’ve done it as an Outside Broadcast from the Town Hall, or similar location.
An did you notice there was no representative on the panel from Channel 7 ? I wonder if Ch 7 got snubbed because of Reece Whitby standing for Labor in Morley and it would’ve been seen as a conflict of interest, though that didn’t stop Nine having Dixie Marshall, daughter of former Liberal Member for Dawesville, Arthur Marshall.
http://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/parliament%5Cmemblist.nsf/WAllMembersFlat/Marshall,+Arthur+Dix?opendocument
This is what a DIE HARD liberal voter wrote (this guy is your typical liberal, regurgitates all the cliches and party spew)
“Very disappointing Barnett.
You looked like a loser and spoke like a moron. And as for the “moral” question you received from the moderator, I was actually shaking my head in SHAME.
That’ll take me 2 weeks to get over.
Carpenter was the usual boring, unethical vacuum cleaner… but he definitely won the debate.”
SeanofPerth:
Where did that quote from the DieHard Lib come from ? I wonder if those 50 voters were selected by the mob who rang me the other night ?
I can well imagine Labor preparing ads that will play up on the Buswell factor if the Worm is anything to go by.
Frank,
I thought the “worm factor”" was Buswell.
And here is the policy on Colin’s pipe
http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=62&Itemid=117
GG
what about th Channel 9 worm
Frank it came from the political thread in the west australia skyscrapercity forum
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?p=24448660#post24448660
I think some ads displaying that Buswell would be Treasurer under a Lib government would go down great – you could tell by the worm that he is pure political poison
SeanofPerth:
I’m amazed at that forum, you’d think it’d would be filled with card carrying members of the 500 club, but the posters think like us
THey were right about how the worm responded when either Carps or Barnett spoke, half of those in the audience looked like 6PR listeners with a few stragglers from 96fm 
Perfect Redneck/Bogan demographic – none of this ABC Riff Raff
Frank you will find that on the planning, development and infrastructure front – Labor support is almost unanimous, especially in the planning field. Alannah MacTiernan is breath of fresh air and innovation this state so desperately needed
SeanofPerth @ 333 “I think some ads displaying that Buswell would be Treasurer under a Lib government would go down great – you could tell by the worm that he is pure political poison.”
-spot on. Buswell is a skidmark that stains the whole of the party, from the MPs who three times voted him as best alternative premier among them, to the party officials who backed him so publicly. That the majority of a party could make such a collective misjudgment shows them as unprepared for government.
The litany of ‘Libs shoot own feet” headlines (Frank C @ 309) is effective, but I have no doubt there are even more anti-ALP headlines in the archives, given The Worst’s habitual carpet-bombing of the government in its reporting.
ABC TV News Report on the Leaders Debate.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/08/25/2346149.htm
The Queensland redistribution causes first reaction. Carolyn Male decides the New seat of Morayfield looks easier than Gjasshouse.
“MEET the state MP who’s ditching her own electorate because it’s too hard to win and will fight to contest another where she prefers the shopping.”
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24241614-952,00.html
Sorry wrong thread but great yarn.
Sean – disagree about Allannah and infrastructure – in fact I thought from the debate that there was very little support in general in that area.
I do agree with Frank et al about Buswell – as I said in a previous thread, he needed to be on the front-bench because of the strength of his parliamentary performance but Treasury was too important/too high profile for it not to be used to bash the Libs over the head with. I also agree to some extent that it showed both a questionable moral approach and the dearth of talent in the parlt Lib party that he not only remained leader but fended off several challenges – in the end he wasn’t pushed (but should have been), he went on his own terms.
Few more thoughts from last night:
As for that final question by Dixie – ‘your biggest moral failing’ what the hell sort of question is that??? Not even in your political career but your life in general…??? I thought it was irrelevant and out of order but no question Carps played it best – even getting a laugh (one thing the Dockers is always good at it getting laughs). Barnett really did a crap job on that question and he got it second giving him a couple minutes to think of a response.
The ‘moral failing’ one was borrowed from Rick Warren’s Saddleback Church debate in the US Presidential campaign, I believe. It was framed in personal rather than political terms. McCain said allowing his first marriage to collapse was his greatest failing. Obama singled out his prolific drug use during his teenage years.
Did Barnett even actually answer the question? He started to talk about his drugs policy before Dixie Marshall scolded him for dodging the question.
New thread.