BRENDAN Nelson has secured a modest improvement in fortunes as the nation’s alternative prime minister while Australians were distracted by the two-week Olympic carnival.

However, the latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows the Opposition Leader continuing to flatline on an approval rating in the mid-teens.

And as the Coalition partyroom meets today after weeks of leadership speculation over the future of former treasurer Peter Costello, the poll also shows little change in support for the major parties or their leaders.

It reveals that Dr Nelson’s rating as preferred prime minister has improved slightly from 12 per cent to 14 per cent as Kevin Rudd slipped three points to 65 per cent. The shifts were within Newspoll’s margin of error.

“All we’ve got here is a slight erosion of Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister,” Newspoll chief executive Martin O’Shannessy told The Australian Online. “My gut tells me, the world’s been on hold for the Olympics and therefore nothing has changed.”

According to Newspoll, full details of which will be published in The Australian tomorrow, support for Labor fell by one percentage point on a two-party preferred basis, based on preference flows at the last election, from 57 per cent to 56 per cent. Support for the Coalition increased by from 43 per cent to 44 per cent – still below their support at the November election of 47.3 per cent.

To be honest, I don’t think the Senate would use its regulations power to block carbon trading. The government is clearly angling to come to some arrangement with the opposition on the issue. Even if the next election gives the Greens the sole balance of power, I don’t think Labor will budge from its position. Labor will do a deal with the Coalition, or put the Greens in a pincer by saying vote for our bill or you get nothing, and then blame the Greens if the bill doesn’t go through.

Back in 1993, the 2 WA Greens did that to Labor on the Mabo bill. A bill had to go through to create a legal framework for Native Title, and the 2 WA Senators forced Labor to their position. The position is reversed on carbon trading, because there is no legal framework without the legislation. If Labor can’t do a deal with the Coalition, Labor can play hard ball with the Greens by saying its vote for Labor’s bill or you have nothing. That’s not to say the Greens aren’t justified in trying to toughen up the legislation when it eventually appears, and it is certainly in line with the mandate the Greens have received from the electorate, but even with the sole balance of power, they won’t have a strong bargaining position.

Despite two weeks of damaging speculation about the Liberal leadership, Kevin Rudd has been unable to make any headway in the most recent Newspoll with the result being within the MOE. Nelson’s approval rating seems to be the only factor keeping the Labor government’s nose in front of the Coalition. With renewed speculation that highly-fancied and electorally-popular Peter Costello will be drafted for the Liberal Party leadership in a bloodless coup, the chances of Kevin Rudd being re-elected look increasingly remote based on this latest Newspoll, exclusive to The Australian.