The Australian reports that Labor’s lead in this fortnight’s Newspoll is down slightly from 57-43 to 56-44. Kevin Rudd is down three points as preferred leader to 65 per cent while Brendan Nelson is up two to 14 per cent.
The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change in Labor’s long-standing 58-42 lead. Also featured is a national-level question on state voting intention which suggests collective primary vote support for the state Labor governments is 7 per cent lower than for federal Labor (40 per cent compared with 47 per cent), although Coalition support is only 3 per cent higher (38 per cent compared with 35 per cent). Further questions involve federal Labor’s performance on various individual issues, and attitudes to the balance of power in the Senate.
745 Comments
I wouldn’t be so sure. If just Mr X or Mr FF decide to oppose something then Baraby’s vote could be worth something…
Mr X has already demonstrated he is an attention seeker lightweight , so Barnaby’s time in limelight may not be finished
Wonder what Labor/Liberal primary vote movements ar in latest poll , ‘oz’ article doe not say
OHHH DEAR!!!, Rudd’s finished, he’s on the way out, –at least that was what Turnbull was saying today, though to give the guy a break he wouldn’t have seen this poll then, looks like this is one long honeymoon or perhaps a settled happy marriage, whoever takes over the leadership from Nelson is going to have a hell of a job to dislodge Rudd be it Costello or Turnbull.
Judy , if you get a chance , see a replay of tonite’s Four Corners on Turnbull for humour (replayed think Wednesday nites)
Here was Tunbull trying to do a Liberal TV add , and he kept forgetting his lines , and unbeknown to our Malcolm th camera was still going and going , and he kept getting more and more cranky and contankerous & kept spitting th dummy at himself , with camera rolling
(Labor probably hav numerous copies made of it tonite)
So now (thanks to Four Corners) we now have yet another reason why the Libs don’t want Turnbull in the Leadership. It will not look good to have the leader of the opposition having to face the federal court in a corruption lawsuit leading up to the next election…
Any suggestions for a new nickname for Turnbull? Perhaps “Media Skills”.
How about “The defendant”?
“…the chances of Kevin Rudd being re-elected look increasingly remote based on this latest Newspoll, exclusive to The Australian.”
Amazing! The evidence of the polls you would think points to anything but a Rudd loss at the next election. It certainly doesn’t support a view that Rudd’s chances of being re-elected are increasingly ‘remote’.
Truly bizarre - and really bit sad, you almost feel sorry for them, they miss their dad so much they are beginning to plead. Maybe they truly believe what they write or, is it just a subconscious call for help. Maybe they should click their heals together and say ‘there is no place like home’ so they might join us in 2008.
I guess with the failure of Howard to provide any kind of successor the Liberal supporters are left with trying to spoil govt in the Senate. They certainly have a couple of willing naive fools happy to be used in a trade a bit of short term grandstanding.
Where does it say that, TP?
Woops - somebody made up a pretend quote from the oz - a pretend quote
“Despite two weeks of damaging speculation about the Liberal leadership, Kevin Rudd has been unable to make any headway in the most recent Newspoll with the result being within the MOE. Nelson’s approval rating seems to be the only factor keeping the Labor government’s nose in front of the Coalition. With renewed speculation that highly-fancied and electorally-popular Peter Costello will be drafted for the Liberal Party leadership in a bloodless coup, the chances of Kevin Rudd being re-elected look increasingly remote based on this latest Newspoll, exclusive to The Australian.”
OK so they haven’t gotten that desperate.
Now, back to Mary Pickford.
hahahahaha hook, line and sinker
3 blogers anti American quotes tonite ,
‘Please don’t try to draw me into that game , before I take your prejudiced view on the situation , you’re like a broken record’
Of course these were to th messenger , because there US anti arguement was exposed as poor Fortunately Kevin07 and Labor policy is firmly committed to US alliance , and to posters earlier today who claimed ANZUS was just a ‘consult only with no defence committment , a quote from ANZUS protects this Countrys sovereignty
Article IV
‘Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific Area on any of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional processes.’ which requires to be read in context of th total ANZUS Treaty
Whitlam , Hawke , Keating and Rudd (as hav all there Defense Ministers) hav all taken this as a firm committment to defend ‘oz’ not only publicly , but in th first three’s cases , there biographies
Graphic
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-26aug1.jpg
Last 6 Newspolls show only one constant , Libs/Nats at 38% primary vote , which is massive landslide teritory for Labor There vote has not moved at all
Because Newspolls variances between th 6 Polls have been all with Labor vs Green vs ‘Others’ vote percentages , suggests there is not even anything positive in th Polls for them to hope for presently
Don’t worry Ron, Shanners will still manage to spin it…
Perhaps I should write a Shanna’s spin piece , and see how close it is , perhaps need a few drinks first
Shanigans headline “Coalition in holding pattern”….of landslide defeat , my words
.
“The polling is basically a bit better than it was at its WORST for the Coalition, but shows no sign of lifting.”
‘worst’ was 6 polls ago showwing a rout , all 5 polls since show a landslide
.
“The Liberals are FLATLINING on a two-party-preferred vote that would see them demolished at an election”
Thats 3/4 way down th article , “flatlining” sounds like you were drowning 20 metres down a few months ago , and ar still there
Surprisingly in summary , Shanigans has officially run th bus over Nelson…after everyone else has
More exlibs dessert the Pineapple Party sinking ship.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24242070-5006786,00.html
The most interesting point I found in Shanahan’s pieces was that he now seems to doubt that Costello will ride in like a white knight and assume leadership of the Liberal Party. It was only a few weeks ago that he had this big spread in the Weekend Australian hinting that Costello was sure to be available when the Party called him. When this is coupled with people like Bishop, Downer and even Abbott saying kind words about Turnbull on the Four Corners program, it suggests some Liberal power brokers have accepted the reality of a Turnbull ascendancy.
No change poll , extrapolating would be a no change election result too!
Let’s not forget that the Labor Newspoll 2PP whittled down to 52% by the time the 2007 election was held. And let’s also not forget the Howard government spent it’s time in 50/50 territory, a few either way, and let’s also not forget that Howard had a hard time getting close to Keating on Preferred PM when in opposition. There is a long way to go in the polls before the Liberals can even be considered competitive - something Labor had been for 11 years in opposition.
There’s nothing to suggest Rudd’s time will be any shorter than Howard’s. Quite the reverse.
Masterclass poll.
When’s the next Liberal Party room meeting? Today?
I give Nelson two weeks.
All of this waiting–for–Costello–the–Saviour–in–the–rain garbage isn’t helping matters much for the Libs.
Observing the Olympic team and our Prime Minister greeting them. Did we actually have an election in November last year? Has anything actually changed in this country?
Does this mean you wish Rudd hadn’t met them - or meeting the athletes is the sum total of PMship?
What a hoot! By constantly discussing Costello and the Liberal leadership, it turns out that Shanahan is actually a labour spinmeister.
From today’s Australian:
Exhibit A: Shanahan has yet another article mentioning Costello and the Liberal leadership.
Exhibit B: From a particularly condescending part of the editorial:
‘Like some quoted in Cut and Paste yesterday, those swallowing the line that Mr Costello is discussing his future with no one are making big assumptions. They are also dancing, perhaps inadvertantly, to the tune of labor’s spinmeisters, whose job it is to keep Coalition leadership speculation on the boil.’
Let’s apply Kerr’s fact, balance and nuance test.
1. nuance: A clever nuance here: the issue isn’t the constant speculation by the Australian on the Liberal leadership. The issue is that some people are making big assumptions that Costello is not talking to anybody about it. The nuanced messages are that The Australian knows everything; others are perhaps inadvertantly dopey; and labour is bad.
2. balance: There are only labour spinmeisters at work on the Liberal leadership. Liberal spinmeisters are not mentioned. The balanced message here is that Labour is bad. Liberal is good.
3. fact: Shanahan, by keeping the Costello leadership speculation going, is a Labour Spinmeister. The fact here appears to be that by twisting the truth and by not checking left hand and right hand, The Australian has met its usual high standards of MSM professionalism.
The real game started this week in the Senate. Nothing destabilized Paul Keating’s government in 1993 as much as the opposition to elements of his budget by the Senate. The “unrepresentative swill” blocked, obstructed and played populist politics for endless months. any sense of a coherent government vision seemed to evaporate. Looking after special interests was also the order of the day.
The farce begins again. What do promises not to block Supply mean if minor parties or independents can knock off billions from the budget bottom-line?
Sure enough, the Greens TOR is to get fresh water into those lakes. Policy implication for the Greens: Let’s go for the high-profile icon and not the system.
Labour wants to broaden the TOR (me wrong, yesterday) but the implication may be that it wants to delay an outcome. I’m not sure why they would want to delay an outcome.
I do hope the representative swill will get around to enquiring into the whole rotten shebang.
Last night, Media Watch covered the spat between the Curious Snail and the Brisbane Lord Mayor (his office anyway). The Snail has been displaying a bias against the Lord Mayor for some time now.
Given that and The Australian’s behaviour, I can only conclude that there is an inverse relationship between the bias of newspapers and any targetted electoral outcome.
“What do promises not to block Supply mean if minor parties or independents can knock off billions from the budget bottom-line?”
Means Mr X , Greens Party & FF Fielding chase cheap headlines & ar economicaly irresponsible
Paul Keating correctly called them “unrepresentative swill” , a term that has annoyed them & there suporters ever since , probably more for its pin point accuracy
Keating’s been gone for 12 years ffs
Apparently Mr Joyce stated yesterday on TV that he was willing to negotiate with the government. Mr X & FF you are on notice!
Rudd is going to use his press club address to flesh out his vision of what he wants to do in the next few years and where he want’s to take us, if that strikes a chord with Joe Public then the senate will balk him at their peril, the voters wont take too kindly to good visions being thwarted.
When’s the address judy?
Only Liberal PMs are allowed to greet Olympic athletes, it says so in the Constitution.
Greens Party whinged Kevin07 instead should hav been camped on Murray River checking its levels , and th Liberals complained 4 Corners should have been rescheduled so Malcolm could be there
I know we normally don’t carry over topics from previous threads but there was a fascinating series of comments from Antony Green on the possibility of ETS being a DD bill. It’s much more complicated than I thought.
Antony Green said;
Yes, I’m sure he has the expertise for that. Who needs the CSIRO when you’ve got a PM to go around the waterways collecting data…
Dario @ 33, I believe Rudd’s address to the Press Club is tomorrow.
11
Dario Says:
hahahahaha hook, line and sinker
In fairness to Mr Paine, that bit of parody was only distinguishable as such due to the context in which it appeared. Mr Shanahan could have easily written it. Sometimes reality is its own parody.
25
Boerwar Says:
Let’s apply Kerr’s fact, balance and nuance test.
I can see that becoming a new meme for the online satirists.
‘The Kerr-FBN Test’
It’s getting a bit nasty at the DNC in Denver and it’s not all Obama-Clinton fighting. The Democrats are handing out nice, shiny blue badges with the phrase “Ask Me How Many Houses I Own” on it.
HAHAHAHA
Well the Federal Conservatives have proved one thing this year:
They will say and do anything to cling to Opposition.
What about oiliness Obama owning his 1.9 million home , amongst others , a home acording to official Court documents was partly financed by his 20 year mate Rezko , since convicted of propery fraud
A typical north east Liberal elite , double standards
Costello is to speak at the National Press Club on the 16th of next month.
http://www.npc.org.au/upcomingSpeakers.html
Having a obstructionist Senate makes government difficult and thats what the Liberal party hope to do. The Liberals are like a person whose imaginary partner has cheated - they want to kill them both off thorugh spite. And the king of spite would have to be Minchin and co.
I wonder how long it has been since the Liberal party has had the well being of Australian and Australians as its reason for being?
I wonder if Rudd would go to a DD if it looked likely he could gain a bunch more HOR seats from the Liberals? He might not improve the Senate position but further decimation of the Liberals in the HOR would be tempting to at least teach them a lesson. Plus the Liberals are in sore need of a thrashing.
“Well the Federal Conservatives have proved one thing this year: They will say and do anything to cling to Opposition.”
Actualy Kevin07 has audited Murray River Basin Commission audited figures data on Murray River , but Greens & Liberal Senators yesterday cynically joined forses pretending those figures do not even exist ,….. in a sham ‘proposal’ of an ambulance chasing headline seeking to st.ff potential future of Murray River for there own Liberals & Greens short term political gain
These environmentel vandals Senators ignore Rudd’s responsible approach , and ar just interested in getting votes
.
yes , even after 12 years PK’s comment “unrepresentative swill” still strikes with accuracy
TP
From what I can gather from reading William and Antony’s comments about the Senate, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy what would happen to the balance of power in a DD.
Also from Antony’s comments on a ETS DD, I think we could tell from the ETS legislation whether it has been drafted with a DD in mind. (When I say we, I mean someone who knows something about these things who would kindly tell us).
Flaneur,it would be interesting to know where the Lord Mayor has been spending his advertising budget and if that could possibly explain this little spat.
Was more of a formality but:
Senator Hogg 68 votes
Senator Milne 6 votes.
Senator Hogg elected as President of the Senate
Ron,at 42,can you supply some facts to support your assertions?
Everyone predicted this but it’s still sad that we were right. White supremacists were planning to assassinate Obama during his acceptance speech from 750m. Is that possible? Are any rifles that accurate?
And Ron, I’m not even going to make a joke about there being no word yet about whether Hillary financed the operation.
Plot to Kill Obama: Shoot From High Vantage Point
http://cbs4denver.com/investigates/assisination.plot.obama.2.802827.html
http://www.newsweek.com/id/154782/page/1
Ron.this is a link to a Newsweek report on that oily elitist liberal with double standards.I am surprised you did not mention that he is also muslim terrorist who hates Muraka.
It will be interesting to see what sort of welcome the Pineapple Party get in Canberra. Their first outing in the Qld Parliament was a circus.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/treasurer-roasts-kfc-party/2008/08/26/1219516434931.html
42
Ron
We get it, Ron. You hate Obama. Well too bad, for better or worse, he is the Dems choice this time round.
For those of you with an interest, there is a good article in today’s Australian by Simon Montefiore called ‘The ghost of Stalin strides the Caucasus’. Lots of interesting historical detail, such as that Putin’s grandfather was Stalin’s chef and Saakashvili’s grandparents hid Stalin from the Tsarist police. Motefiori has been there often and knows what he is talking about.
Liam at 47:
That would explain it.
Whatever the cause, the paper’s actions are hard to justify.
31 “Apparently Mr Joyce stated yesterday on TV that he was willing to negotiate with the government. Mr X & FF you are on notice!”
Dario, if that was what Barnaby said discount it. The Opposition can do nothing about anything this term. Action has moved to others. Joyce is no position to negotiate anything with anyone. All he needs to know is that the Pineapple Party members did not win at the last election.
“The Opposition has lost its control of the upper house and won’t have the power, on its own, to pass, defeat, delay or amend legislation.”
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24243967-5005361,00.html
Flaneur @ 55
The quality of the discussion in the emails (quoted by ABC last night) between Corkill and the CM journo was not inspiring. What is happening could be a conspiracy or a cockup. Based on the texts provided, cock-up is looking good.
Whatever, it demonstrates why having one newspaper dominating a city may not be good for balanced information flows, and cannot be good for democracy.
Diogenes , you were th one not me , who brought up Candidates houses , but you strangely omitted to mention Obama’s own $1.9 million house , amongst others
Liam I did not make an asertion , I quoted a fact of court records , a fact Obama when questioned tried to slipperly avoid , and when continually cornered with evidence then could hardly deny , so HE aknowledged , followed by approx quote “it was not a smart thing to do” ….meaning by that stage his 20 year mate Rezko had by THEN be charged with property fraud
Obama is comfortable with ’spin’ , but when confronted with facts he like his admirers you and Just Me can not handle it Check th Court records if you wish
[Obama's] admirers you and Just Me
I have never said I was an Obama supporter (nor a Clinton opponent). That is your false assumption/imputation, and reveals far more about your views than mine. You will find no evidence on this forum (or elsewhere) that I am an Obama supporter. All I ever said about him was that I thought he would win the Dem nomination, which he did. That was just a straight psephological prediction, it does not in any way imply support for Obama. Indeed, I do not see a lot of difference overall between him and Clinton as far as electoral prospects go, or their general policy positions.
But I do think that much of the criticism of him is hysterical partisan nonsense from embittered Hillary supporters, such as yourself, apparently. He won the race against her fair and square, get over it.
Do you seriously prefer that the Dems lose (again) simply because your preferred candidate did not get up? If so, then you have a lot of political maturing to do. If not, then get behind Obama. Or at least, get off his back.
Ron,you can spin like a top as well as anyone.For your information I did not support Obama.Why do you not address the facts in the Newsweek report? Factcheck.org has shown your story as simply not factual. Just repeating G.O.P. spin does not make it a fact
57 Whatever, it demonstrates…
Boerwar, it is also important that the former media advisor went to work for another council after the elections.
On the topic of the Murray. This made me chuckle.
St Kev has done it again!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24240761-5013169,00.html
“The signs are there that we shouldn’t give up,” said Mr Davis, a curriculum adviser and former teacher. He has cheered the 170mm of rain that has fallen around the lakes since Kevin Rudd visited them in early July — not that he’s calling the Prime Minister a rainmaker.
Diogenes 50
A quick search on Wikipedia suggests that distance is quite possible, though difficult. Apparently armies are now using high calibre (50 cal) heavy rifles for snipers. They can fire over 1000 metres. So its possible and therefore a risk. I imagine it would still take some skill though.
Socrates
I’ve seen a professional shooter, shoot a fox with a .22 designed for the job from over 750 meters. Quite amazing really
The range is challenging but not a problem for someone who knows what they are doing. There would be no problem in the US gun market picking up appropriate gun and ammo. If people have not already got the skills, there is no problem picking up the necessary training. It is plausible that there are willing nutters out there. It is plausible that Obama would be a target.
Hockey bounced out of Question Time.
Member for Kalgoorlie thrown out.
Just Me
You spent a whole post without addressing th facts , and instead used red herring personal but that abuse does not improve your argument As I said not only ar there official public records but also Obama’s own public acknowledgement For someone allegedly not a Obama supporter , you show unusual degree of hostility
Liam
Unfortunately both candidates hav learnt to ‘abuse’ internet with numeous disinformation sites & others that ar attack sites Only reliable information is what comes from there mouths & public records both of which ar unambiguous As to your kindly comment “I am surprised you did not mention that he is also muslim terrorist who hates Muraka.” , well that is not a fact
They’re raving over at The Nameless One’s blog about the appointment of the GG’s private secretary.
Apparently Quentin Bryce knows this guy from way back. And he is gay.
This is all evidence of the sinister Labor government stacking their mates into plum jobs.
Makes you shake your head. They just don’t accept that Rudd is Prime Minister, has a perfect right to appoint whomever he wants (if allowed by law) and that he remains hugely popular among those who elected him, despite the Nameless One’s Acolytes’ wishes and prayers to the contrary, if today’s Newspoll is to be believed (and the last one, and the last one, going back to August 2006).
I know we have a propensity to whinge here, too, but these guys take the cake.
Sheesh…
Obama did publicly admit that he had cocked up on his house purchase arrangements. The ’significant other’ is facing indictment, or has been indicted or something, I am not sure. (Is being indicted the same as being charged? I don’t know).
Anyway, whether one house that is worth $1.9 million purchased under slightly noisy arrangements is any more of a campaign negative than 7 houses worth who knows how many million will be interesting to see.
The fact that the owner of the seven houses did not know how many houses he had is strangely compelling on two counts. One is that he may have difficulty being in touch with people who are having difficulty holding onto even one house, or who don’t own a house at all. (I used ‘may’ deliberately). The other is that if he can’t count to seven at his human scale, how is going to handle the numbers at a national or international scale?
In both cases, the important point is the capacity of the person concerned to delegate effectively. Do we know anything about that capacity?
The wiki piece on snipers says the “world record” for a sniper kill is 2430m! It was during the Afghanistan War in 2003 by a Canadian. The bullet travels at 750 m/s so it took three seconds to reach the target.
Diogenes
The modern 50 cal snipers rifle can occasionally make those shots but they’re still almost unbelievably difficult.
As for our friends in Denver.
A one shot kill at 750m with a conventionally available rifle is a very challenging shot. In anything less than perfectly calm weather I’d pretty much put my money on a clean miss. At that range a strong crosswind can push the bullet more than ten feet off target!
A professional sniper would change the odds considerably of course but I strongly suspect a pro would go for a shorter range shot anyway. To be sure of a kill at that range even the pros use match quality rifles, barometers, wind speed meters and laser rangefinders.
Coalition in the Senatre now talking down the economy while accusing Swan of… talking down the economy.
Of course the 50 cals also have the advantage that a hit pretty much anywhere on the torso is inevitably fatal. You don’t need a head shot when the bullet is the size of your thumb.
70 Boerwar
The latest I’ve heard is that it’s now 10 houses.
68
Ron Says:
You spent a whole post without addressing th facts
The real facts in this debate are that Obama won the nomination, fair and square, and you cannot accept that.
Sorry if you find that so hard to believe that I am not an Obama supporter (nor a Clinton opponent), and that you have to see anybody not overtly supporting Clinton and attacking Obama as ‘teh enemy’. Can’t help you with that.
Ron @ 12 -
and to posters earlier today who claimed ANZUS was just a ‘consult only with no defence committment , a quote from ANZUS protects this Countrys sovereignty
Article IV
snipped
Whitlam , Hawke , Keating and Rudd hare entitled to believe whatever they wish, but Article IV does not commit any member to come to the military aid of another.
Malcolm Fraser laid out the ANZUS limitations pretty clearly in a 2000 speech:
(Full text here)
He then goes on the list instances where ANZUS was put to the test and the U.S. failed to support us, notably over West Irian and Malaya from which he draws the same conclusions I previously outlined. Quote:
Bottom line: In the unlikely event we are ever invaded the only ones we can totally rely on is ourselves.
.
Socrates @ 63 -
They can fire over 1000 metres. So its possible and therefore a risk. I imagine it would still take some skill though.
Wasn’t Hillary bragging about her hunting prowess during the campaign? Used to blow high flying ducks out of the air if I recall correctly. Or was it raccoons?
dogb
I just looked up the JFK assassination and it was only 81m from the 6th floor of the Book Depository to the motorcade. There was a lot of argument that it was a stretch for Oswald to make that shot. I’m sure the modern rifles are better though but 750m would be a big ask.
Wouldn’t Obama have been wearing a Kevlar vest anyway? Would that have saved him?
Brendan Nelson in SMH saying he believes that the Labor vote is soft and not at all like the opinion polls show?
Yeh! and in 1975 Margaret Whitlam really believed that the Whitlam Government would be returned safely based on who she was talking to on the campaign trail.
I guess it is who you talk to?
Poor Brendan!
Ron,you have lost me,if you have some evidence to link to please do,Newsweek and factcheck.org are not Obama bots.Thats all on this.
Just Me
neither th official records nor Obama’s own acknowledgement ar stacked up against your…what ? abuse , your failure to check th records says it all , you ar th most uncloseted closet Obama supporters around Liam if you wish to rely on boidgy intenet sites for information instead of public records thats your problem
Fact is both US Partys hav made a decision , both made bad decisions , Obama a phoney and Mccain a maverick , and I’ll criticise whether you like it or not because they will both affect Kevin RUDD and Labors FA , and in Obama’ case his “protectionist policys will severeley hurt OUR farmer’s pockets and outr manufacturign exporters
MayoFeral @ 77
You conclude with: ‘Bottom line: In the unlikely event we are ever invaded the only ones we can totally rely on is ourselves.’ Spot on.
Other countries that are smaller than we are, and which have far greater degrees of vulnerability, appear to the have the national confidence to take a fully independent line, and to assume full responsibility for homeland defence.
Australian soldiers have generally, but not always, fought with great physical courage. Some Australian generals have shown high levels of strategic capacity. Australian civilians appear to lack a matching degree of moral courage and an unwillingness to explore an alternative vision.
Ron, you are going to see whatever you want to see.
Have fun.
78 Diogenes
The range for the Kennedy assassination is well within the abilities of even an amateur and while LHO was hardly that, he wasn’t great either. One clean miss from three shots is probably fairly substandard from that range. Someone of Oswald’s talent would probably struggle to get a clean hit on the car at 750m, never mind a head shot.
As for the Kevlar vest, it’s probably a good idea but not for the reason you think. What scares me (and it really does) is not the 750m shot, it’s the 75cm shot. Obama has no choice at this stage but to be as open and friendly with the crowd as possible. I hate to even think of it but I worry that some racist redneck jerk with two teeth, twelve brain cells and a Saturday night special will try to get him from point blank. A headshot at that range is difficult. O will be surrounded by the secret service and those guys react damn fast – but a snapshot is possible and most likely will be a torso shot.
I don’t know if O wears a vest when he goes into the crowd but I certainly hope he does.
Boerwar and MF
I met an Aussie soldier a few days ago who had been stationed in Iraq and the US. I asked him why the soldiers who came to see me never wore their uniforms.
He told me a story of when he was in the US, in uniform, walking down a street. A lady and her kid came up to him and asked him where he came from. When he said “Australia” the lady shook his hand and thanked him for helping their country, and told her kid to thank him as well.
In Australia he says he has been spat on, sworn at, called a murderer and threatened with violence when he wore his uniform in public. So the soldiers are told not to wear their uniforms in public.
Diogenes,
As usual, wikipedia has an answer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sniper_rifle#Maximum_effective_range
Check the accuracy section just above it as well. With a 0.1 or 0.2 MOA accuracy rifle that range is certainly do-able. At that range as well normal kevlar vests may not be effective for the correct ammunition.
Ron,good luck with all that.
On Four Corners last night they said that Turnbull got 6 million in fees from Packer for his Fairfax work and yet in the dark of night he risks all to scupper the deal. There are some serious questions to be answered here. On whose behalf did he do this? Did Conrad Black play any role in his decision? I am pleased he did, but I would still like to know on whose behalf he was acting.
Boerwar @ 82 -
Other countries that are smaller than we are, and which have far greater degrees of vulnerability, appear to the have the national confidence to take a fully independent line, and to assume full responsibility for homeland defence.
Something I have been advocating for decades. While I accept that a lack of confidence is a big factor, we shouldn’t discount that it has allowed politicians to run defence on the cheap.
The only advantage our alliance with the U.S. has delivered since WW2 is access to their best military equipments, but even that is no longer the case, as demonstrated by their unwillingness to sell us even a lower spec version of the F-22. Plus, I for one am mighty pissed that they have on a couple of occasions now knowingly sold us secondhand equipment which turned out be useless - the rust-bucket landing ships being a classic! It demonstrates a complete lack of regard for our security!
But even that lost advantage may not have been worth the price we’ve paid - Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, hosting facilities that are prime nuclear targets, the insistence that, as Fraser noted in the speech I linked earlier, in the event of war with China we must side with America even if it’s against our interests (yes, I’m aware that Rudd has indicated he won’t be bound but when push comes to shove…?), etc.
Diogenes @ 85
Well, I don’t even want to begin to believe that, but if it is true, it has to be faced. It is utterly disgraceful.
I protested against the Vietnam war. But I respected very much then, and I respect now, the men who fought on our behalf and took the opportunity to tell any vets I bumped into that that was my view.
I believe the disgraceful treatment by ignorant civilians of our vets who came back from Vietnam helped to finally destroy many of them psychologically, if the mental trauma of battle damage had not already done so. They should have been welcomed back as heroes, told that, sorry, the democracy had changed its mind, but we honour and respect your efforts on our behalf.
The following bit is a bit personal but anyway here goes.
Yesterday I wept. I was reading a book about the USS Aaron Ward. It was a picket ship near Okinawa and its job was to act as early warning radar station for air attacks from Japan against the US Okinawan invasion force. Most of the sailors aboard the USS Aaron Ward were very ordinary hostilities only people. They were hit by six kamikazis in the space of about an hour. The story describes what happened to individuals during and after the attacks. The story weaves in ordinary details about ordinary men who found themselves in hell. The story also weaves in the details of the families back home as they get the yellow telegrams.
I protested several times against the Iraq war. We don’t yet really know the stories of our men and women in Iraq and Afghanistan but they deserve our honour and respect. I understand the a significant proportion of them have been traumatized. If anything, we should weep for them; not revile them.
9
oldtimer Says:
August 26th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
“Brendan Nelson in SMH saying he believes that the Labor vote is soft and not at all like the opinion polls show?
Yeh! and in 1975 Margaret Whitlam really believed that the Whitlam Government would be returned safely based on who she was talking to on the campaign trail.”
Reminds me of Kennett’s wife ahter he was given the royal order of the boot. Her comment? I don’t understand the result - I don’t know anyone who voted Labor.”
Too late to say sorry to ‘nam’ vets , damage was done years ago , fight in rotten jungles , come to ‘oz’ where soldier was not even treated like a reel soldier like ww2 ones Called traitors , my Lai supporters , no anzac day , lost mates , many since died without any recognitions , many hav suffered mentality , but at least now there is appeciation & saw it this year at MCG
Ron @ 91
For the survivors, better late than never. As for the ones that didn’t survive the peace, well, yep, its too late.
Ron, MF and Boerwar
This soldier I met was a very pleasant straightforward guy. I was quite amazed by the matter-of-fact way he related it to me.
We have come a long way recently as Ron pointed out for the Vietnam vets for many reasons. So why is another generation of Iraq vets going through the same thing? Or was his experience very atypical?
#50 Diog - [Plot to Kill Obama: Shoot From High Vantage Point] - The Deer Hunter Boys are singing bye bye Miss American Pie.
being a rabid rabbit and wallaby shooter when young i feel that a few inaccuracies are present in this thread
1. a .22 will not kill at 750 metres
2. the necessary weapon would need to be at least a .357 cal to ensure kill at 750m
3. the line of sight would not be afforded unless the shooter was suspended from the ceiling
4. the room (and precints) is under constant microwave scanning to enable any metal profiling to appear
5. no ceramic rifle exists currently in the .357 cal and above rang
Diogenes @ 93
Let’s hope its atypical.
I saw some figures a month or so ago which, and I have only the haziest memory, indicated that something over 60% of soldiers return from either Iraq or Afghanistan or both were seeking compensation for stress. I hope they get it. That way war budgets can begin to include all the real costs.
I wish I had a dollar for every “soldier being spat on inthe street” story I’ve read or heard in my lifetime.
What a complete load of hogwash. Why do you bother promoting such cheap soap-opera drivel?
Soldiers don’t wear their uniforms in public in Australia. It’s just not the custom. In America they’re into it, but not here.
Bushfire,
Notwithstanding the specifics of what may or may not have happened, there seems to be a lot of anecdotal evidence about Vietnam vets getting a hard time, though, wouldn’t you say?
Bushfire
Some govt departments have uniformed officers working in them.
Bushfire Bill @ 97
Well, I could say something like: ‘I wouldn’t mind a dollar for every time Vietnam vets copped abuse.’ If so, we would both be at an essentially meaningless level of debate. Not sure whether the terms ’soap opera’ and ‘drivel’ adds much, either. These aren’t actors.
As to ‘complete load of hogwash’, I do recall that quite a few of my lefty peers (I being a lefty at the time) were well into personal abuse of soldiers during, and straight after, the Vietnam war. They boasted about it in righteous tones. Many Vietnam vets have reported having suffered one form of abuse or another. I don’t think they were all, or even mostly, bullshitting, but I may be wrong and you may be right.
Beyond that, I would be interested in how you would approach the issue of what the right approach would be to returned soldiers when either sizable minorities oppose a war, or when the majority shifts from being for a war to against a war.
BB
This was a soldier who told me. He was driving his car home from the air base at Edinburgh and stopped to fill up at a petrol station.
A revealing article in the New Matilda, shows Australian politics is rife with corruption :-
http://newmatilda.com/2008/08/26/dirty-money-behind-elections
Any one see that just before QT, Nelson actually congratulated Channel 7 on it’s Olympic Coverage? wtf
103 Worse than that Brenda was surprised when everyone laughed at him.
104 You’d think he’d be used to it by now…
On a more serious note, does anyone else follow the updates on arctic ice melting at the NSIDC website? Its very clear. After a slow start to ice melting this year, it is continuing to trend parallel to last years record melt, headed for another near record low. Given that weather conditions this year have been much less conduicive to melting, this is a serious outcome: it suggests that last years record was not a once off. If so, bye bye arctic in our life times, and then bye bye Greenland within a measurable period after.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
As of 18 August the “North West Passage” routes had opened to ice free sailing yet again.
I’m surprised this site doesn’t get more media coverage. It shows the real time situation graphically with clear unambiguous explanations.
WTF people WTF!!!
Patrick Cockburn has written an article PRAISING Bush II’s latest foreign policy in Iraq. He’s NEVER written a good word about GWB in eight years.
He applauds the timetable for US withdrawal, the ending of legal immunity for military contractors and dropping most of the pro-US anti-Iraq “nation-building” clauses.
There is a relevance for the US election. On the Obama side, his plan is basically the same as GWB’s so McCain can’t call him a liberal elitist surrender monkey without saying the same about Bush II. On the McCain side, it defuses the unpopular Iraq War to some extent.
It all makes the Rodent’s tagalong “we’ll stay there as long as you want us” stance look pretty sad. The Ruddster was ahead of the curve on this one!
Don’t know that it actually contributes to the debate, though I was certainly out on the streets protesting the Vietnam and 2nd Iraq wars, hiding objectors from the Vietnam war, and have seen a fair number of people for therapy, mostly from the Vietnam war, I’ve not ever come across anyone in uniform in Australia of late being vilified. Not a sample, I realise.
BTW, I find the latest deny the welfare payment to parents who don’t have their children enrolled and attending school proposal absolute bollocks. It’s probably the most stupid thing I’ve seen in a good long time. Children not being enrolled or attending school may be due to an extensive but not infinite range of factors, usually requiring a fair degree of expertise to analyse, and expertise that extends across professional, cultural and linguistic experts, as well as the people themselves, then the intervention needs to be tailored to local/community needs. I’ve no idea what Labor is up to with this gambit, other than a mantra that rings hollow to me. Might I suggest they consult some people who actually know what this sort of intervention will do, which is sweet bugger all.
Diogenes @ #101:
I’m surprised you fell for it. Do you believe every sob story told to you at servo pumps?
This is the oldest soldier’s trick in the book, put out over the ages to garner some sympathy from gullible members of the public.
Greek hoplites and Roman legionaires would have been saying the same thing to anyone who’d listen.
“Woe is me… my own country spits on my uniform.” (as they cry into their wine)
Did he ask you to lend him ten bucks too? And did you lend it to him?
There was no hatred of uniforms here during Iraq. Sure, a lot of people (me included) criticised the mission. But we knew Howard had made sure they were in the absolutely cushiest job in the Middle East: defending a backwater airforce base in a backwater province that had the lowest casualties in the entire theatre, and still does. How could anyone possibly accuse them of being murderers for God’s sake? They hardly fired a shot compared to their COW allies in other areas.
Most likely any aggro they might have suffered from being identified as soldiers was from tanked up locals in the pub thinking they could take on a soldier boy in a bar fight. It’s always been the way: likely lads fancying their chances against a uniform. Down through the ages.
The custom in Australia is to not wear uniforms when off duty. The custom in America is to wear uniforms. Two different cultures. If his superiors told him that he risked being spat on, and that he should go out in civvies, that’s more a reflection on the pathetic mindset of the wankers in command than the Australian public, and shame on them.
Stories like this… you heard it from a stranger in a service station driveway… he told you his commanding officers had told him… and the cute bit about the mum in America and her daughter… sounds suspiciously like one of those heart-wrenching chain emails that go the rounds every now and again. There were certainlyno reports of anything like this happening here. And believe me… if Howard could have wrung a few tears out of unpatriotic Australians bashing and spitting on soldiers just because they’d been to Iraq, he’d have wrung it for all it was worth.
You don’t need to promote obvious tear-jerker nonsense like this to make your case.
Socrates @ 106. I’ve been seriously focussed on this for some time since reading Brian at Larvatus Prodeao’s material. And before, anyone else starts up with the “What is it with you and Brian” stuff. Don’t be silly. Just found a very informed series of articles. I can’t do the linking thingy, so all I can suggest is going back through the archives till you find it. He does, however, know how to do links properly, so once you’ve found one, you’ll get the others.
The Coalition are doing nicely in the polls, aren’t they?
BB
Actually I was operating on him at the time (under local anaesthetic) when he told me. I was cutting a skin cancer off his cheek. And I seem to recall that he paid me, not the other way around. He said he was at a petrol station when he was spat on.
I am the most cynical person I know by a long way. I am incessantly questioned /accused “Aren’t you being too cynical?” . My standard reply is “It isn’t possible to be too cynical.”
He may have been bull-shitting me but I find that most people tell the truth when you have a scalpel in your hand.
Harry
You’re not the only person concerned about the eerily Howard-like policy of linking welfare payments to truancy. And keeping the Australian Building and Construction Commission isn’t all that popular either. Evidently it’s an affront to human rights.
Dissent grows in Government ranks
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24246147-12377,00.html
112 “Evidently it’s an affront to human rights.”
Diogenes, it all stems from here.
http://www.cyi.org.au/
And what’s wrong with servo sob stories?
Did you here the one about the family filling up their car at the servo - five kids in the back, maybe a wheelchair, Tarago I think - off to buy sausages because petrol was so expensive they couldnt afford meat.
Broke my heart at the time (sniff)
as i remarked earlier today Diogenes nothing has changed only new pigs feeding at the same trough.
115 Edward - so nothing at all has changed or will change? Is that your contention?
Good lord, Possum - was it you I was sitting next to at 3 am in the gutter at King’s Cross? (Certainly whoever it was was soft and fluffy…)
Essentially yes GB but as the gutless often do - when they finally screw up the courage to do something they blow the one big thing.
118 Edward - I’m sure this government hasn’t and won’t go far enough in changing our society for some true believers but to say nothing has changed or won’t change is going just that step too far IMHO. Let’s face it they haven’t really got into gear.
Although I didn’t like many of the things Howard did, not everything he did was wrong or bad. to throw out everything he did and start again surely is not required.
ESJ
I find it a bit disconcerting when there are double standards about Rudd and the Rodent. I think Rudd is a much better PM but there are things he has done, like suspending welfare payments to parents of truants, which would be denounced thoroughly by Labor supporters if the Rodent did them. But there’s barely a whimper when Rudd does them.
For some Diogenes politics is just football.
GB - a quarter of the term is up - that’s a heck of a warmup.
Rudd has said he is planning for the long term. The procedure is to determine where we are at, plan and implement. If that can be done in 8 months then he’d be a miracle worker.
You seem to expect everything to be done tomorrow. Then again maybe you just don’t expect it to be done at all. Whatever, you are being very judgemental far too early IMHO. Judge the situation in 3 years, not 8 months.
Just what would you have expected Rudd to have done in 8 months ESJ? I have asked this question before and have yet to get a response as I recall. Be specific.
“Who’s Ya Daddy” on Lateline………raving up Cossie
GB,
In the Budget he could have:
a) Abolished the 50% CGT discount for wealthy people
b) Abolished tax free super for rich people
c) Actually increased welfare spending for poor people (instead of gestures)
You dont need to wait years for equity GB, demand it, demand it!
Red
he really really misses johnny,was waiting for him to break down and cry
“oh for the good old days”
the fibs are still in denial mode- i feel their pain
MayoFeral
PM’s Whitlam , Hawke , Keating and Rudd believe ANZUS commits USA to our defence under attack via Article iv and in taking th Treaty in full They hav credibility in such National Security matters , you do not , neither does any Bob Brown type politcan As for you relying on Malcom Fraser’s views as support , well Malcolm Fraser’s credibility ran out on 11th November 1975
You represent a minority not believing in th overall USA alliance and suspect your narrow interpretation is so influenced Th wording difference between 2 Treaties reflects drafters styles at diferent time periods with one more stark , but intent and meanings of both of US obligations ar clear
You ar entitled to those views but ar mix up/influenced by th Alliance and th Treaty issues , ‘oz’ for example did not need to go to either Vietnam or Iraq under ANZUS at all , and because Labor opposed both wars ‘oz’ would not in hav been involved in either war under a Labor Govt , yet ANZUS nothwithstanding woud hav been still operational
Labor Party is absolutely committed to ANZUS longterm and for sound reasons , overwhelming % of ‘oz’ rightly support it , & for those that don’t for whatever reason (including anti US & pacifists) that don’t like ANZUS , they’ll had to get used to that as objections will make no diference
Diogenes @ 93 -
So why is another generation of Iraq vets going through the same thing? Or was his experience very atypical?
I have no idea whether what you’ve been told is true. I retired 9 years ago and have very little contact with the military these days.
However, a few observations.
I regularly see lads in uniform from the air defence regiment when I’m shopping in Mt Barker and haven’t noticed them being harassed. FWIW, they seem to live on nothing but sausages and beer. At least these seem to be the only items in their trolleys. Uncouth lot, the Army! Sniff
While most of the population was against the Iraq adventure I have not detected any anger over the issue. Anyway, I’ve always thought the animosity against Vietnam veterans resulted mostly from peoples guilt over having supported the war. Unable to face up to their culpability they took it out against those who had the least say in the matter. That and being poor losers.
While I’ve been on the receiving end of the usually comments from the public, and the odd WW2 digger, the only time it was more than that it came from, ironically, a Vietnam vet who took very great exception to my walking away when he began mouthing some of the same crap. Really went ballistic.
It all makes the Rodent’s tagalong “we’ll stay there as long as you want us in Iraq” stance look pretty sad.
But this IS Democrat VP Joe Biden’s years long firm stance May as well hav made US Iraq General th VP
Oh for Christ’s sake Diogenes, spare us, will you? How would you know who was telling the truth under the knife and who wasn’t? Did you hire a private investigator to follow up?
Really mate, you have been coming up with some awful balderdash lately, and this soldier with his death bead confession takes the cake.
Now you’re telling us that because you’re a surgeon you have an better inbuilt bullshit detector than anyone else because “most people tell the truth when you have a scalpel in your hand.” Oh really?
I’ve been under the surgeon’s knife several times before and I lied like there was no tomorrow to my bloke. He knew it to. And told me so. But he still did the op. We’re still mates.
Your posts are getting more like a late series episode of ER than a rational discussion of politics. You should argue the case on its merits, not from the standpoint of a medico to whom no-one dares lie, because their life is in your hands. [CUE: A thousand tiny violins]
Sorry, but I’m older than most coppers I come up against, most lawyers, most business colleagues and certainly most doctors. I’m not in awe of them any more. You have to do more to convince your readers than the “I’m a doctor, so I’m special…”, heart-strings gambit.
Bushfire Bill
I’ve never been spat on , and never heard of any soldier who has Howevber th issue i said in #91 is not spitting , beeing spat on is geez hell nothing in comparison to war or how paticularly ‘nam solders generly were later treated , almost always by those whose who opposed th war and by many govts
Edward StJohn
#126
“GB,
In the Budget he could have:
a) Abolished the 50% CGT discount for wealthy people
b) Abolished tax free super for rich people
c) Actually increased welfare spending for poor people”
ESJ , he could hav only done that by putting budget surplus at less than 1% of
GDP , given he was locked into matching howards 31 billion tax cuts (otherwise he may hav lost election) as regards point (c) however Schools program & medicare levy changes ar broadly for poor & middle anyway & they’re expensive However nothing wrong with your generall point and assume Rudd will focus this area further
Noww that economic indicators ar not as healthy with World downturn care is even more needed with spending & incentive re (a) as one needs growth in downturns , whilst (b) they’re taxed on income at marginal tax rates less offsets whilst capital inflows feeding into sysytem ar cheaper for economy than overseas sources whereas at another econ time I’d fully agree with you
Finally big chunks of budget ar loked into ‘middle class welfare’ , that Howard built in partly for politcal reasons This has taken a huge alot of spending ‘discretion’ away from Rudd and future Govts Not sure how or if it can be easily unravelled quickly without suicide electoral backlash , so Swannee may need time given it took 12 years of Cossie to creaste this unsatisfactary web , so your flat tax proposal doen’t look like a look in
126 Edward - You confound me Edward. At times I could swear you are a conservative at heart and other times you come across as a stark raving lefty. Hell, if the Labor government did as you suggest I’d probably vote against them myself.
I actually share your sentiment in regard to the poor and I’m sure the rich could afford the changes you advocate but it would be a sure fire way of losing the next election.
Changes have to be made slowly ESJ. You can’t make the changes from the opposition benches, it’s as simple as that. I think Ron is pretty much on the right track.
“I find it a bit disconcerting when there are double standards about Rudd and the Rodent… there are things he has done … which would be denounced thoroughly by Labor supporters if the Rodent did them. But there’s barely a whimper when Rudd does them.”
That’s because when Rudd does something he does it with love in his heart whereas there was only evil, evil I say, in the Rodents heart.
Ron, GB
As a certain political school of thought used to say:
“dare to struggle, dare to win”.
Rod @ 136. Don’t be silly. What a stupid thing to say. Rodent, Heart? You gotta be kidding right?
Tom.
How the story changes. For months it’s been:
Today, The Australian pronounces:
Do I detect the makings of a retreat from fantasy?
Poor Shanners and co, still can’t influence the political sphere no matter how much they try…
I was listening to ABC local radio on my way in to work today. Matt & Dave interviewed Lyn Arnold, former SA Premier. The extreme cutting off of benefits would be the last, extreme step.
Don’t believe everything you need in newspapers!
Gillard seems determined kids can break out of welfare and make better lives for themselves through education. If labor does nothing but this it will be one of the great governments.
Oh, Lyn is now leader of Anglicare.
As a well known Hillary supporter, i just gotta say that another double standard is running here. From what i have heard and seen so far, none of the previous losers in the Dem POTUS nomination have never, repeat never, actively and openly endorsed or supported the winner.
In fact, yesterday CNN showed a clip of the 1980 convention where Jimmy Carter defeated Ted Kennedy for the nomination and Ted Kennedy refused to shake hand with Jimmy Carter. Jimmy Carter had to run after Ted Kennedy to get a “unity” handshake photo.
So why is it that Hillary is demanded to “support” and “delivery” the Presidency to Obama. Obama is the nominee, he is the one that should win over everyone and everything.
btw: Michelle Obama’s sweet American Pie speech and children prop performance yesterday was excruciating to watch.
BB
I am surprised that a post describing a single soldiers experience has got you so excited. Why get so hysterical that I actually believe what one person told me?
Finns
Lots of losers in the primaries have supported the winner in the past for the good of the party, and their own future. I agree that Hillary has supported Obama as much, if not more, than most of them. It’s mainly the media who are trying to look for any sign of discord to create a story because Hillary has so many supporters that it’s crucial how her supporters vote. Most Obama supporters, myself included, think she’s doing more than enough.
Not only that, but the McCain camp found a disgruntled Hillary supporter and brought out a McCain ad saying how the supporter had sour grapes about Obama winning the nomination, and was going to vote for McCain, using Hillary’s name. What would you expect Hillary to do? Sit back and say nothing? I don’t think would just want McCain to win out of spite.
You quoted it authoritatively as having some kind of wider meaning. The gist of the comment and subsequent enhancements was that Australians so despise Iraq war veterans that the military brass has forbidden soldiers to wear their uniforms in public in order to avoid violence and denigration of our men and women who have faced the foreign foe. Subsequent comments by others were of the “shakes head sadly, if it’s true” variety… exactly the reaction you wanted, I suspect.
Then when challenged you started out with that “I’m special. I’m a doctor” business. You admitted you were only administering a local anaesthetic, but somehow we’re supposed to believe that even a straightforward day-surgery procedure brings out the unvarnished truth from your patients on any matter discussed, a truth that only you can be privy to because “most people tell the truth when you have a scalpel in your hand.” Some kind of “death-bed confession” concept I suppose. In other words, don’t argue BB, doctors are better judges of the truth than mere mortals.
Soldiers have been claiming the public hates them and their uniform for years, millennia in fact. And mothers and daughters always thank them for their service in the street. That’s an essential part fo the fairy tale. I’m surprised you were so gullible as to believe this horse$hit, and worse to tout it as some kind of meaningful contribution to any debate. If this story as to ADF policy was true it would have been publicised in every newspaper and on every TV news. It wasn’t. It’s clearly an urban legend, and that’s if you didn’t make the whole thing up yourself.
Enough, Bill.
Andrews Bolt and Landeryou report that a third Andrew, Jaspan, has been dumped as editor of The Age.
Diogenes,
I saw a couple of diggers in uni this morning at that well known hotspot, Maroubra Jungo. Not only did no one spit on them, they didn’t spit on anyone either. Now, if they were strolling down King St, Newtown, it may have been a different story. You never know what to expect from those long-haired, Commie, poofter uni students. They’ve been known to hang a greenie on an plain clothes copper. God knows what they would do to a pair of serving soldiers who were dressed to kill. And spookily, I am still waiting to see my first public dressing down of a Vietnam vet. But I can tell you that I’ve had a few soldiers (plus Navy and Airforce) whingeing in my lug about how unfair it all is. I get the impression that a lot of soldiers, while they to a great job in the main, want to spend the rest of their lives getting patted on the back. In much the same way as Dawnie Fraser has parlayed a few Olympic medals into a lifetime of glorious reverence. And don’t get me started on the birthday boy, Don Bradman…
That should start some celebrations among Age journos!
147 BB
Fair enough. I may have been taken in.
You’re way too kind, Diogenes.
Comments accusing Diogenes of lying are being deleted.
Bushfire Bill
I agree with you th principal of quoting one off examples is meaningless Th soldier instead of spiting may as well hav been hugging him as a friend , for all th relevence one of examples mean , and so see where you were coming from and agree
Other posters hav also quoted inappropriate negative stories here of ‘nam’ soldiers , but they’re one of type examples , and they reely hav no place because they imply & or belittle all solders as if all may be like that , which is wrong to quote such one of examplles & think that was your correct thrust
Solders ar like everyone else , ar good bad & ugly , but like all public overwhelminglly good , as for ‘nam’ solders as said yesterday some bad damage was done for returning nams in 60’s and 70’s too late to unfix now , but young show more appreciation as alot of older ones still see th solders as part of somehow blame problem but were just solders for there Country some still with som memory scars
We’ve all, at times, made the mistake of taking what people say around us being representative of what people are thinking generally. That of course doesn’t make what those people have told us untrue but we need to be careful not to jump to general conclusions based on their accounts. Lesson over and out.
Iraq is history, some people need to stop living in the past.
Whether we should have followed American in? Probably not, but the end result is a dictator stealing from his country and killing millions of Kurds cannot hurt his country anymore.
So it was good and it was bad
Our soldiers served our country proud and deserve all the accolades we get.
The problem with society is there are too many self righteous people in the world who thinks only their view matters, who wants people to hate our soldiers (Vietnam/Iraq) So that they can make a point. These people need to grow up and live in the real world
Vietnam yes, can’t say I’ve seen anything but respect for our soldiers over Iraq. The hate was all directed at the politicians.
I think I’ll move on to a safer topic. No more anecdotes from me!
Janet Albrechtsen has applauded Rudd’s new “tough love” policy of linking welfare payments to school attendance. It deserves “unequivocal praise”. She also claims that the policy follows in the courageous footsteps of John Howard and The Australian.
Tough love is now bipartisan
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/tough_love_is_now_bipartisan/
Feds to buy properties at auction to stop water diversion
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24248231-601,00.html
I was responding to a “hysteria” charge by Diogenes. It seems quite a few others agree with my substantial point, even if William doesn’t.
Onto other matters… Hilary just gave the speech that Rudd should have. How boring and flat can an oration get? Listen to Rudd’s effort and you’ll get a pretty good idea.
Education is important stuff but, due to Kevin’s stultifying delivery, guaranteed to fall as flat as a pancake on tonight’s news. We need inspiration, not more miserable promises of hard work ahead. If he’s not careful, Rudd will blow Labor’s opportunity to do something in government, by burying his party in a ton of policy and process. They’re needed, but lighten up Kevin, for God’s sake.
Swanee yesterday , enjoyed this
“the Opposition Leader, the Treasury spokesman and the former treasurer were the ‘three stooges’
You have got the Leader of the Opposition, one of the three stooges, who can’t do his job; you have got the member for Wentworth, who can’t get the job; and of course you have got the member for Higgins, who hasn’t got the courage to take the job,” he said.
.
.
now a competition to see who is Larry
I honestly don’t think Rudd can give an “inspiring” speech in the US Convention-sense. It’s not in his character nor have I ever seen him give one. After all, in his speech at the Labor election campaign launch, the biggest cheer when he said that he was a “fiscal conservative” - not exactly Kennedy-esque…
Of course, the $64000 question is how well a speech of the style Clinton delivered today would have gone over in Australia? Most people would have thought it “wishy-washy” and too rhetorical - you can imagine talkback lighting up saying “nice speech, but where’s my tax cut???”.
The sad truth is that in Australia, inspiring rhetoric gets you nowhere - it’s now all about tax cuts, interest rates and unemployment. The only good thing to note is that we’re not alone in this - remember, it was the Sheffield Rally that sank Neil Kinnock in 1992 in the UK…
Who is going to sit down and take notice of what Rudd says, inspirational or not? The populace won’t be sitting around glued to their sets or reading reams of prose on Rudd’s inspirational speech. Come on, get real.
The populace find it hard to tune in when an election is on.
Yep, Rudd should be out there deliverying the big ticket items based on jottings written on the back of napkins. We don’t need careful planning. We don’t need to know where we’re at. Just get out there and squander, er, I mean, spend the money on half baked schemes. That should keep them in power for about 11 years.
Precisely
william
the wrong andrew was sacked.
The Exclusive Brethren are crying foul over an attempt by the Greens to launch a senate inquiry into the activities of the cult.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/exclusive-brethren-hit-back-at-probe/2008/08/27/1219516539000.html
The Brethren grew fat from years of unwarranted and grossly inappropriate financial largesse courtesy of Howard & Co. Now the evil Dr Brown and his godless mob of witch doctors threaten to expose the shenanigans of this weird, weird bunch.
The Lord giveth, and the Lord taketh away.
And the Lord moveth in mysterious ways.
Whoever is President affects Kevin Rudds Govt including there “character”
You’ll never catch a ‘slippery’ man , unlike a thief , with his hands actually in th jewelry box
I hav supplied two links below (main one is th Democrat leaning New York Times (“NYT”) investigative report on Obama re Rezko dated 2007
Before pulling up this link , can I say th article does not follow chronological sequence so needs reading twice to follow a pattern of behaviour PLUS KEY data is scattered between ‘filler’ stuff
Secondly details in this article & similar hav never been challenged , and Governor of Obama’s own State Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich etc was also involved with corruption charges involving Rezko
Thirdly Rezko , since th article has been actualy convicted in June 2008 on those 3 Federal charges of fraud & corruption referred to in article Forthley preconceptions can colour conclusions before reading , and whether this is back door financing given there “mutual history” as I think , a conclusion of knowingly (seeing it was public info Rezko was sleezy ) of close personal & professional association does not sit with being “a fit and proper person” at th minimum
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/14/us/politics/14rezko.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
mainly tit bits of background & sale but is only a site , whereas NYT paper is credible
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3486054.ece
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/14/us/politics/14rezko.html?_r=3&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
only way to open this is open a new Google page and copy past above link
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/14/us/politics/14rezko.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Ron, don’t worry about slippery men from overseas. What about our own conservative authoritarian in christian socialist clothing.
174 TurningWorm - he’s not in power now. Remember? We had an election.
If the speech is inspirational enough, then it will be taken note of by the public. That’s the whole point of an inspirational speech. The details can be looked after by the relevant minister.
I hope you’re not arguing that Rudd shouldn’t even try to inspire the country. If not him, then who?
We were expecting a headland speech about the future and all we got was notice that a few heads will be kicked at the next COAG meeting. That’ll have the public out in the streets a’hoopin’ and a’hollerin’.
176 Bushfire - “If the speech is inspirational enough, then it will be taken note of by the public.”
I’m not convinced.
What makes you think an inspirational speech will turn anything around? Speeches don’t do it, actions do. Those that don’t agree with Rudd are not going to be persuaded by a speech. Those that see politics as a pain in the backside are going to keep on doing so. Those that support Rudd are not going to change, bland or inspirational.
Sorry, a speech is just that, not results.
BB, please feel free to list the inspirational speeches (other than in times of war - I think there is a place for them during war), that have really made a difference in Australia.
GB, not even the rodent himself tried to bring back the kanakas or cut centrleink payments off for families with unruly kids. It must be a Queensland thing.
Feds to buy properties at auction to stop water diversion
I’m not convinced this is the best way of going about fixing the overallocation problem. Plus Joyce has a point about the effects this could have on some communities.
I’d much rather see the government wipe the slate clean, determine how much water flow there is in the system, allocate sustainable flows to the rivers, including enough to fill backwater every few years to maintain their environment in good condition and then divide up/sell/lease/whatever the rest among current licence holders, providing compensation where necessary.
However, I doubt any government would have the courage to take it on.
179 TurningWorm - “GB, not even the rodent himself tried to bring back the kanakas or cut centrleink payments off for families with unruly kids.”
I’ll overlook the verballing of the actual policy re “unruly kids”.
Obviously you are against these things but I would bet that the average person has no difficulty with these stances.
Oh dear, how quickly we retreat into populism. Howard’s legitimacy must have been unquestioned for 12 years then.
I reckon you would be hard pressed to find any average person on the street in Australia who could provide you more famous speech quotes from Australian PMs than from US Presidents.
Actually, about the only ones I reckon you’d get from Aussie PMs would be Howard’s “we will decide who comes here”, and maybe Whitlam’s “It’s Time” although that was more of an overall election slogan than just a speech quote.
Nice little Libs /Greens clash over biofuel Power station.
“The Liberal candidate for Blackwood Stirling, Wade de Campo, says he supports the development of a 40 megawatt biomass power station near Manjimup.
The Greens’ candidate, Luke Petersen, says the station should be split into smaller plants to reduce the impact on local produce growers who oppose it.
But Mr de Campo says the plant has received environmental approvals and has been found to be safe to the community.
He denies he has a conflict of interest since he also serves as the local shire president, and is the owner of a trucking company.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/27/2348035.htm
I thought that’s exactly what he did in the NT intervention wasn’t it?
Talking about speeches. It will be interesting to see what tone Obama’s speech will be on Thursday:
1. Kumbaya speech - I am the one; I am the change that America needs; New politics, blah blah blah
2. I am one of you, I feel your pain and I got solutions to your problems speech
3. I am your commander-in-chief speech - Dubya like, i will proect you and america, strong homeland security and put the Russian and Chinese in place.
4. Attack McCain speech - too old, too rich, too senile, too out-of-touch, too close to Bush.
5. Attack 8 years of Bush speech
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/27/us/politics/27assess.html?hp
182 TurningWorm - unlike yourself obviously, I didn’t disagree with everything Howard did. I was glad to see him go for many reasons but he didn’t get everything wrong. He lasted nearly 12 years as you said.
GB, you miss my point.
We’ve had the detail and the process. It’s time to plant some big ideas in the public’s mind. That’s what they vote for, not arcane policy points made in obscure government position reports.
Of course there is a need for detail. But there is also a need for the people to know where they are being taken. Leaders have to rise up above the fray occasionally and show the way forward. They should leave the detail stuff to the underlings. Rudd insists on being across every brief, of being a “Devil int he details” man. He has to stop this and let his ministers do their job.
As to “war”… if the imminent immolation of the planet due to Global Warming is not something deserving of the nation going a war footing, then what is?
If Global Warming is to be as bad as the scientists say it is then everything - everything - will have to be subverted to it, and sooner rather than later. That means defence, the economy and at the root of it all, education. If we can’t defeat GW then wars, famine and all kinds of pestilence will follow. It won’t matter if we’re well educated or not, because the Law Of The Jungle will apply and it’ll be dog eat dog.
The last time the Earth warmed significantly was back in the Middle Ages. We were lucky then. We didn’t have the long range weapons, the technology and the populaton pressures to cause us to wipe ourselves and our childrens’ futures out. Today we do. GW is existential. We require more than details, details, details to get the message. We need to think beyond which pressure group or business organisation’s members will have temporary revenue setbacks, or which groceries will cost a dollar more.
But this is exactly the current state of the debate. Penny-ante stuff compared to the consequences. Whingers and moaners on the sidelines crying into their beer that they might lose 1/4 of a per cent of their income, swearing there’s nothing they can do to change their wasteful ways or we’ll all be rooned.
Contrast this with Hilary Clinton’s speech today where she called on the Democrats to work together not only for a secure future for America, but for a brilliant future, one of promise and prosperity… one where America regained its reputation for innovation, cleverness and co-operative World citizenship.
Wilson Tuckey is up in Parliament raving on now about a couple of hundred bucks extra in utilities per year if we get an ETS before 2010 (claiming of course he’s not a CC denier… like hell he isn’t). This is what Rudd is up against: endless minutae, rats gnawing at the edges of the last bit of cheese in the political cupboard to gain some imagined advantage, or in order to avoid being the first to go without. We are a small country. We can’t hope to affect the World’s ideas on GW. It goes on and on. The ultimate extension of his argument is to do nothing. But he not a CC denier, nosiree. Not Wilson. He just doesn’t want anyone to suffer from doing something about it before we all go down the tubes.
The only way to combat these erosive tactics is not to answer them with yet more details, more counter charges, but to rise above them and show the way.
Inspirational speeches are exactly what we need. The people will follow Rudd if he can convince them their future is not only secure, but exciting, prosperous and brilliant… but only if we act now and with enthusiasm.
The contrast between is effort and Hilary’s was stunning. You’d do well to find her speech on the net and listen to it. Every word of it.
Afternoon all. Sorry I missed the interaction on the vets. Looks like there is a bit of a blog consensus (not necessarily 100%) around that Viet vets were bastardised to a significant extent once they got home and that the civilians probably seem to have learned something by the time the Iraq vets returned.
A bit off topic but I saw a sign at a construction site today: ‘Infinity Constructions’. I must admit I thought that IP space had been taken a while back.
A small trial in the NT, you are correct Dario. But they never had the chutzpah to try what Ruddster is doing.
Actually I was too hasty on wilson Tuckey. He started out with the same old CC denial arguments, but then got onto something I found interesting.
So (gulp) I went to his web site (as he advised during his House Of Reps speech). Never thought I’d find myself doing that in this life, but there you go.
Some interesting reading on tidal electricity generation and hydrogen fuel for motor vehicles: http://www.wilsontuckey.com.au.
Tuckey’s angle isn’t anti-GW. It’s more for us to cease being dependent on Middle Eastern oil. This is something else Rudd doesn’t push: that anti-GW processes have benefits never discussed that have nothing to do with Global Warming.
Sorry Wilson. I misjudged you.
Equating CC with war is stretching it for me I must say. Yes, it’s a danger but I really don’t think people see it in the same way they view a military attack.
I’m also not convinced people will be swayed by the CC sceptics as you seem to believe either. We’ve had this discussion before and we will go over old ground. I just disagree with the notion that an inspirational speech will do the trick. Will it do the trick for Obama?
Socrates @ 106
Yep, I have been keeping an eye on it. I feel like the proverbial frog with a snake moving its way. And, yep, the Arctic is going to hell in a handbasket. And yep, there are some peculiarities going on. And yep, all those positive feedback elements like the permafrost melt releasing scads of methane and Carbon dioxide are starting to happen.
However, just pointing to what is happening to the Arctic ice and not mentioning what is happening in the Antarctic at the same time, is a bit like, like, well… er…a very little bit like B**t quoting the half dozen or so glaciers that are growing longer and ignoring most of the other forty thousand or so glaciers that are experiencing drastic reductions in net ice mass..
The Arctic sea-ice extent trend is in free-fall. The Antarctic has a slight upward trend in summer sea-ice extent.
Still Putin must be excited. A summer ice-free Arctic will become another flashpoint for the neo-colonialist wannabe. He will have to fight the Danes this time. They reckon that continental shelf stuff going out from Greenland means that a very large slice of it is all theirs. But will the Danes fight to the last Greenland Inuit. And if the Russians move first, will NATO be forced to act on the behalf of the Danes and the Canadians? Georgia mainly only lets oil through. That Arctic country is highly prospective.
TW
I believe “The intervention” didn’t withhold welfare payments. I think they were only “quarantined”. On a related matter, the teachers union and the Liberals are most upset, for different reasons, about Rudd enacting Howard’s “reforms” of sacking under-performing teachers and merging schools that aren’t up to their standards.
PM outlines system to compare school performance
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24249778-601,00.html
BB
I agree on global warming. Lots of experts talk about how warming in the Middle Ages (which weren’t as warm as currently despite what some sceptics say) was easily tolerated by the population due to much lower population density and interconnectedness between groups. They say that the “coupling” between many global needs (eg oil, water, grain, gas, coal) is so close that there is no redundancy in our systems to absorb even relatively minor perturbations, let alone the major ones predicted.
Our belief that humans can adapt to anything is not going to work this time.
Dio, there was a general policy of quarantining payments for all Aboriginal families. But there was also talk of a trial in a few communities of cutting off payments if kids were not going to school. I don’t think it ever amounted to much anyway. My knowledge of the NT intervention is pretty scant.
I apologise for mentioning the polls. I’ll keep it short before drifting off into more interesting areas,
1) My ongoing theory about the difference between the state and fed voting intentions are held here. Now I know this is not totally scientific, but I repeat, when the hawke keating thing was going on we had state fibs, etc etc. This would tend to be supported by the present polls, However the difference now is that ala NSW last year the opposition is so useless that they just can’t get their act together. It a bit like the Senate where there are a groups who doesn’t want any one party have the bat and ball. Really fairly wise.
Off thread, Re exclusive nutters, Go the greens, I reckon that they should broaden it to the Catholics and tony abbot, and convents etc, Schools maybe . One thing about the exclusive bretheran, no possible political backlash as they are exempt from voting, and presumable paying tax, I know that Work Shoices had special clauses exempting them from certain conditions!
Lastly the whole balance of power thing is a complete farce, in many governments the majors vote together 80% of the time. The new parties and inds have every right to vote against the government, remember most people voted against the ALP.
Since winning the election the Rudd government has performed exceptionally well. They delivered an excellent budget given the economic circumstances and have gone about their business of keeping their election promises and implementing their policies.
Of course, some are still not happy and expect miracles. However I must admit, the policy of cutting welfare payments to parents for not sending their kids to school is opportunistic, very Rodent like, out of touch and blatantly stupid.
I can’t imagine any parent not wanting to send their kids to school. The problem is with the system. If you provide an environment that is conducive to learning and where a student feels safe and content, they will want to go to school. Even I know that - and I am no quack.
Howard would implement this kind of policy to further cut costs and score cheap political points. I hope that that is not the case with this government.
Over the years, I’ve heard some very good speeches by Labor leaders, including Rudd. I’ve walked away from them expecting massive media coverage and discussion….they’re not even reported.
No matter how brilliant the speech, it will live or die on the 30 second grab…so why go to all the trouble of writing the rest of it, when you just need to get the 30 seconds right?
A few - very few - of us will go to the trouble of seeking out an important speech and reading it (I read Howard’s announcing the M-D rescue package; I occasionally read speeches on Hansard) but I’d bet that most will check out what’s in the papers and leave it at that.
NSW Coalition will vote against Electricity Privatisation tomorrow
This all transpired in February 2003
One could say that the LNP member for Herbert knows how to get a good story going. You know like the ones that asked to remain anonymous who said!
It almost seems like he was right there when all the action took place.
May have been trying to shore up a few votes in case the Rat pulled the trigger early.
At the time Peter Cosgrove knew of one incident —nationwide.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/stories/s788012.htm
GB, That’s the problem with Global Warming. It’s progress is slow, but steady.
Make no mistake. If GW is half as bad as they say it’s going to be, we’ll be in wars and all other sorts of territorial shenanigans as a result.
Once upon a time the planet’s population could absorb the angst. Not any more.
It must be terrible for governments to fight GW. Every time there’s a cold night in winter people switch off. If one summer is slightly cooler than the last, they lose interest.
I guess it’s akin to a patient being told they have terminal cancer. They feel alright (except for the occasional twinge or bad day), so how is it possible that in six months they’ll be dead, weighing half what they weigh now and screaming in pain even with the morphine?
We need direction or else all the best will in the world won’t get the population into gear to fight GW. There’ll always be someone who naysays, quoting phoney figures or showing off misleading graphs, even as they fry in their seats.
There’s enough doubt out there to allow opinions like yours: that it’s hardly a war-footing subject. That may be true today and tomorrow, but in a few years time you may have to change your mind.
OK, better late than never, but let’s have a close look at the Christian Kerr FBN test this morning as it applies to his article ‘New Chapter’ narrative implies PM has lost plot’ in this morning’s OO.
In terms of Mr Christian Kerr’s balance test, let’s look at his judgment about who has lost the plot. In terms of balance, we could compare Rudd with Howard in his last years and Nelson right now. Pretty clear to me. Howard led his party to perdition and got kicked out of his seat. One can only conclude that Howard must have lost the plot completely. Rudd knows what he wants to do: meet his election promises. They are on the record. They are complicated. They are large. He is meeting them. Mr Christian Kerr takes this for granted and, in effect, says: ‘So?’ This compares with Howard who routinely reneged on his election promises and on Nelson… well, Nelson can say what he likes but no-one is listening. Well, Mr Christian Kerr, in terms of balance, we have: Rudd the election promise meeter vs Howard the election promise reneger and comprehensive plot loser, vs Nelson’s policy flipflops and negavitity but no-one is listening. At first sight, looks very balanced Mr christian Kerr, but I have a sneaking suspicion that it could actually be a journo belonging to a certain MSM organ who has lost the plot?
Now for nuance. Mr Kerr states that ‘narrative’ is the same as ‘message’ and we can more or less gather Kerr’s take on it from the heading of his piece. Literally, the PM has ‘lost the plot’. So, Mr Kerr, which part of the ‘message’ has been lost? Rudd is devastatingly ahead of the libnat leader in terms of satisfaction rating. What part of the ‘plot’ are the overwhelming majority of Australians missing? What message aren’t they getting? One can only conclude that they must be so stupid compared with the nuanced Mr Kerr.
Now for the facts in the article.
The article makes the following assertions and presents them as fact, or factoid, or whatever: ‘You don’t do a speech with nothing to say.’ Phew. That’s a clever fact Mr Kerr. I just hope all the dopey buggers in readerland are grateful for that one. And then, in a post graduate tone, of course,: ‘Just taking a spray at the Opposition would be demeaning.’ Really? Is that a fact, Kerr? So, is the Opposition doing anything other than taking repeated sprays at the Government? Has it come up with a single positive policy prescription? Could this possibly be demeaning for Mr Nelson? These latter are what Mr Kerr apparently regards as an irrelevant facts. I have a ’sneaking suspicion’ that Mr Kerr is particularly strong on ‘irrelevant’ facts.
Talking about ’sneaking suspicion’, here’s another fact Mr Kerr comes up with: There is a ’sneaking suspicion’ that something is about to happen in Canberra. Golly, Christian, is that the best an top-line journo can do in the MSM? Perhaps we could call you ‘Sneaking Suspicion’ from now on?
Another fact, apparently, is that ‘narrative’ is another way of saying ‘message’. Phew. We dopey buggers just have to live an learn and learn from these pearls of wisdom.
To give him his due, Sneaking Suspicion also has some good questions. Unfortunately, they are predicated on the crap above and lose their credibility as a result.
Applying the general principle as endorsed by the OO, namely that schools provide public reporting on outcomes, my score and comments on the Sneaking Suspicion in this article:
Facts 6/10. The Sneaking Suspicion could do better by including all the facts and by not referring to ’sneaking suspicion’ as it if had a factual weight.
Balance 3/10. Does not take all the considerations into account. In particular completely disregards the fact that Rudd is delivering on his promises and also completely disregards any any reasonable comparison with Howard and Nelson.
Nuance 7/10. The element is not a fail, because the article shows clever signs of nuance with the way in which it creates and presents the ‘truth’.
Diogenese @ 194
There was a wet/cooling period back about then as well in England. I don’t recall which century or centuries it was in. But… the agricultural and food storage systems then in common use meant that the population had about reached its level and when the cooling period arrived, lots of people starved in the country side. Sorry I don’t have references for this. Might need testing, but I’m pretty sure I have it right.
Compared with that, we are nowhere near reaching the limits of population with today’s technology. But we have gone way past it for lots of people in terms of the way we go about things. Some examples:
Water is scarce, and energy is expensive, (they are inter-related) but a small proportion of the world’s population use a hugely disproportionate percentage of the water and energy. If the wealthy all agreed not to have: fridge, washing machine, air con, and we agreed not to eat high energy, high water cost food (basically meat), and we agreed not to travel to work one-to-a -car, then today’s agricultural systems would flood the world with abundant food.
The UN figures are about 800 million people go to bed hungry each night and up to five million kids die of starvation or starvation-related diseases a year. These figures are dodgy but they point to a terrible truth.
Centre @ 197. Some of my reasons for calling this policy stupid earlier in the thread are that some families are very dysfunctional, and this is not being blaming of them, however, for example, if one parent has a severe and chronic psychotic disorder, a young person may come to be the parent’s main carer if the partner is no longer around, and so not attend school regularly in order to care for their parent; some parents may have poor parenting skills; some parents have moderate to severe substance abuse/dependency problems and have great difficulty paying attention to their children’s needs; children, themselves, may have significant mental health problems which interfere with their learning and lead to school refusal or avoidance, and lastly, bullying is a significant problem in some schools and contributes to school avoidance or refusal.
I cannot see how cutting off welfare payments, even as a last, very last step, is anything other than stupid policy.
If the family is unable to provide for the child’s needs, remove the child early, and place them where their needs will or can be met.
Victoria has recently revised the legislation in this area, and while services are still being re-organised to respond differently to children at risk, at least now children don’t have to repeatedly be returned to dysfunctional families till they are totally ruined, and early intervention is getting better.
Also, there’s some tentative steps being taken to tackle some of the more serious problem communities in the State - tend to be more remote, feral, mixed parentage between primarily Aboriginal and white, can’t tell who fathered who by the third generation.
Buggered if I know how this will go, but cutting off their welfare payments would only increase the thieving, the stand over tactics towards those who do have money, including physical violence.
Boewar
I hav great difficulty in accepting your article using terms like Fact , Balance and Nuance…it bestows a level of pre existing credibility that Chris Kerr has not earned here , nor since achieved
To me
Fact (Spin) , Balance (Imbalance) , Nuance(Twist) = “SIT”
Howver you or other posters may wish to experiment further , not wishing to over elevate Chris Kerr in th PB hall of fame , beyond his level of credibility
Harry Snapper Organs @ 204
I have to admit my gut feeling was, let’s just cut welfare payments off delinquent parents. But your post but the brakes on that. IMHO, your words are good stuff because they are well-grounded.
My follow-on question would be: ‘Do you think there is a percentage of parents who are just plain slack, and who would respond to having their dollars cut off by getting their kids to school?’ and, if so, how would you differentiate between them and the desperates you describe @ 204?
Ron @ 205
*grin* I was a bit disappointed that you didn’t give him his rightful name: ’sneaking suspicion’.
Boerwar @ 202.
Superb!
Harry Snapper Organs 204
Spot on.
Boerwar @ 206. If there are any, I haven’t come across them. There’s usually a reason, or a number of reasons for why people behave the way they do, in my experience.
Differentiating or diagnosing the different factors affecting parental capacity, or the lack or deficiencies of same, is actually very difficult, and currently hard to do, given silo funding and therefore, how systems operate at service delivery level.
You don’t need to read the OO to know what it will contain. It has made itself that predictable.
Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs @ 210
Thank you. *Thinks: I am frustrated by all this, there seems to be no end to it, regardless of what governments do.*
Do you think there is a bit of a role for ‘push’ as well as ‘pull’, that is, pressure as well as support? Or is this basically my question @ 206 being asked in a different way, and you have already answered it?
QUERY
For those interested on accessing my link from #171 re Rezko , hav finally worked how one can
Copy link from PB to a word document & paste , then use mouse to copy link from th word document then printed link (to override existing copy stored via mouse ex PB) , then open internet Google whatever home page , paste , and enter , and its there
Can anyone explain why such a process is necessary Originaly I had one internet open , access a 2007 investagative article on Rezko in New York Times on Rezko , I copied link , saved it in word to put into PB , then opened PB , then copied link from word & pasted to PB , but can not then acess link either direct from PB or copying it onto a new internet opening without going via word as per above para
202 Boerwar; the fact Kerr quoted Ronaldson pretty much allows you to regard its entirety as utter bollocks (so par for the course really).
H”S”O, I totally agree.
You have to understand the reasons for a kid not attending school and then try to find solutions. I am dissapointed, it’s not smart, and a policy I would have expected from the Fibs.
“a policy I would have expected from the Fibs”
It is. Labor should have grabbed the bits off Pearson it wanted and developed its own policy.
It seems the Rudd Government’s search for a narrative is taking up shades of the 1982 Star Trek classic “The Search for Spock”.
Could it be alcopops? Could it be slashing welfare, could it be dodgy emission trading schemes, perhaps it could be sacking long serving school principals?
Where could it be? Is it hiding under that shrub, someone quick activate the search beacon!
Grog @ 214
I met Ronaldson pere twice and it was twice too much. I may have been insensitive but he appeared to me to radiate a certain feeling of loathing and resentment. If Ronaldson garcon is a woodchip off the old block then enough said.
Beyond that, the stats that Ronaldson presented are interesting, and Rudd would do well to have a look at them. According to Kerr, Ronaldson analysed some things for the nine months before and nine months after the election. In the nine months before the election, Rudd used the term ‘fresh ideas’ 87 times, and he has only used it seven times since.
This is useful input for Rudd, and we should be grateful that the Opposition is spending time figuring out better ways for Rudd to present his case. Clearly, they are somewhat lacking in any substance on their own account.
Who knows, but the solution may not be difficult to find, but difficult to implement?
If you provide an environment that is conducive to learning, students feel safe and content and participate in activities that they like, they will go to school?
ESJ @ 217
lol. Poetic straw man. How about, at the next election: ‘We met our election promises’. Promises listed and actions itemised. Compared with the tawdry record of Howard/Costello, it differentiates the brand nicely, does it not?
What about AFL. Our indiginous Australians are sensational at it. Sport may be the answer. Maybe schools should take sport as a real serious priority.
If you can become a soccer star for e.g., you could end up richer than all of us here put together.
Boerwar @212. It is very frustrating. It seems to me, and quite a few others who have both worked and researched this area, that we need a uniform national approach. For example, at the moment, families with significant child neglect/abuse problems regularly move across State borders to escape investigation or action by Child Protection agencies. Sometimes, they also move because they have low level skills and simply have to move wherever there is work.
If you had some across gov’t agreements in relation to child protection, as there are beginning to be in relation to mental health (specifically people who are subject to involuntary treatment orders, now operating between Vic. and NSW for instance), you might start to get somewhere.
It is also a very difficult area in which to work personally. I lasted 9 years.
Statistics In Space for the week.
According to Newspoll, since June 15th Brendan Nelson has been making an extra 124,000 people a week dissatisfied with him, every week.
That breaks down to over 17 thousand per day, over 720 an hour, or for those that really care about their time, 12 people a minute.
Possum, that’s ver risible.
Sorry, very, and it should probably be in billable untis.
units, bugger the arthritis.
Centre @ 221
Hmmm, taking it from the top:
Australia was colonised by an empire with the following qualities: it was slave owning and slave trading, it was not a democracy - corruption meant that you could buy certain electorates; it was thoroughly corrupt in terms of governance and fraudulent abuse of the public purse; in Australia, it used rum as a currency, and its missionaries used tobacco to addict Indigenous folk into coming and working for the missions; the age of consent was then about 12, but I may be wrong.
The British empire slaughtered its way across Australia in military terms and it introduced new diseases that killed well over half the Indigenous population. The last full scale recorded massacre was as recent in 1927 in Coniston and the Northern Territory.
It then paid a wage differential to workers, took generations of children away from their parents, and any time Indigenous people made a go of it (eg Corranderrk) it shifted them off to rotten soil land like Lake Tyers. I saw a documentary the other day in which Indigenous women were talking about their menfolk who were driven off some good farming country on which they were wheat farming.
The women said, ‘That is what finally broke the spirit of the men.’
In Western Australia at times Indigenous children were simply excluded from formal schooling. I have seen the miserable letters from their parents, begging their children be allowed to attend schooling.
The empire herded them on and off reserves for a century and a half, depending on the flavour of the day. Until the last part of the last century in Queensland, Indigenous women and men had to get the permission of the Minister or his delegate to marry or to leave, or to go back onto government settlements. A small fortune in Indigenous wages were sequestered by the Queensland governments of the day.
About 27 men were executed for rape in Queensland in the 19thC (may have gone into the 20thC). Not one of those men were white.
I could go on, but I would make two points:
(1) we have no real idea how to decolonize when the colonized are in the minority
(2) a game of footie might help, but it is tragically short of what will fix two centuries of systemic and racist bastardry.
P C @223. No wonder the Fibs are begging Tip to take the leadership LOL.
so people are dissatisfied with him even in their sleep.
at least he is making an impact
That’s very sad Boerwar. But now we must go forward. That’s all I can say.
Harry Snapper Organs @ 222
OK. Thank you. Perhaps something for cooperative federalism to focus on.
12 people a minute?? Now that’s substance!
Today was a real abdication for our Prime Minister boerwar! Does the man believe in anything?
Centre @ 230
Agreed. There is plenty of excellent stuff happening which never sees the light of day. I just get a burr under the saddle when people expect 200 years to vanish from where people are at. When you spend 200 years damaging people and then expect them to respond as if they are just early-stage middle class whites is ludicrous. But it is the way the ‘debate’ is being framed at the moment.
I would hasten to add that I am not in any way excusing bastardry by Indigenous people on Indigenous people, or for that matter non-Indigenous people. There is no excuse for it. Criminals should be treated as criminals.
abdication? doesn’t believe in anything? You’re talking about Nelson aren’t you?
ESJ
for starters:
that nelson should stay opposition leader for as looong as possible
ESJ @ 233
Being elderly, I had a bit of snooze this afternoon. I hope the world did not continue turning while I slept?
Oh wait that’s right, I forgot - it’s all Liberal policy - I guess they just didn’t have enough time in office to carry it out. Yeah 11 years, is far too short a period to do anything (unlike 9 months, which apparently is more than enough time to have done everything)
ESJ,
233 is a real blah comment.
The fact that life has continued iunabated in Australia despite a change of Government is a testament to our versality and general disdain of politics and politicians.
What were you expecting: Mass executions?
GG After 12 years of conservative rule I was foolishly expecting progressive Labor policy
239 GG
“What were you expecting: Mass executions?”
Well at the very least I was expecting those awful union bosses to be in charge.
ESJ @ 240
OK, goaded by your allusions I will try to stay awake until sunset at least from now on. What happened?
ESJ,
After 12 years of conservative rule, you were expecting and supported three more years of conservative rule.
Given Rudd and Co have implemented the Howard/Costello budget it is churlish to expect that the economics have changed that much in 9 months.
As I have said before, Labor has done much in the 9 months of office to set themselves up for a long reign.
But, keep throwing pies.
240 ESJ what were you expecting?? Weren’t you listening during November last year?
I guess it’s hard to get used to a Government actually caring about election promises…
Golly. Pies? Progressives? Promises? Mass executions?
*thinks: must try and stay awake next time*
In only 8 months , this is a diferent Country & sometimes its easy for some to forget what was , W/Choices , Haneef , Hicks , Iraq war , discrimatory GST , no appology , worse little ‘care’ , tax cuts for th rich , kids overboard , no Kyoto , etc s etc s , now green paper on CC ETS , roll out start National sppeedy broadband , internet & panels in schools commenced , 13.9 +further 3.7 billion Water program , price watchs , assault on indigenous health and welfare , bigest tax review in 50 years commenced , but in a democracy you do not get a revolution , nor want one
Ron,
As always, you say it far more eloquently than me.
I know it’s not worth a lot but there have been MSM polls on Rudd’s education “reforms”. Both the truancy benefits policy and the sacking underperforming teachers policy are popular, at least with those who voted. I’ve spoken to quite a few fairly left-wing people today who are happy with both policies, much to my surprise.
Rudd certainly knows what he’s doing. But then again so did the Rodent for four elections.
In the Tiser, 66% agreed with the sacking principals policy (500 responses).
In the OO, 70% agreed with linking truancy with payments (1000 responses).
GG - 243
After 12 years of conservative rule, you were expecting and supported three more years of conservative rule.
Well put and that’s exactly what we have. Labor Government that even a conservative can feel happy about.
tis a nice list Ron.
The Hollowmen was pretty targeted at Rudd tonight - Kirribilli open to charities.. keeping the Genereals waiting.
GG
when you gt a chance hav a look at #171 , but may neeed #213 to access it , as my computer is giving me some payback somehow
Ron 246
August 27th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
In only 8 months , this is a diferent Country & sometimes its easy for some to forget what was , W/Choices , Haneef , Hicks , Iraq war , discrimatory GST , no appology , worse little ‘care’ , tax cuts for th rich , kids overboard , no Kyoto , etc s etc s , now green paper on CC ETS , roll out start National sppeedy broadband , internet & panels in schools commenced , 13.9 +further 3.7 billion Water program , price watchs , assault on indigenous health and welfare , bigest tax review in 50 years commenced , but in a democracy you do not get a revolution , nor want one
Ron - good try.
W/Choices - ACTU disagrees with you on this.
apology, Kyoto, assault on indigenous health and welfare - where’s the money ron?
Water program - its a Potemkin village job, 400m is chickenfeed investment for show
green paper this, green paper there
Nothing’s happening, what did these people actually do in 12 years in opposition other than knife each other? Doesnt seem there is anything they really want to do
Grog
is that 12 a minute dissatisfation with Brenda possible to go to infinity , was thinking whether Horatio ended up being th last one standing being dissatisfied with himself
ESJ,
Therefore, why the constant whinge?
Agree that Rudd and Co have been constrained so far. However, exciting reform times on the horizon.
MRB
Climate Change
Computers in Schools
Broadband roll out.
It’s happening all around. Just open your eyes and support a Government that is reformist, but taking the electorate with them.
I looked up the SA Education policy on truancy and the police already have the power to fine parents of truants. I assume this is the case in the other states. A fine is much the same as cutting welfare benefits so why was there the need for this added policy?
There is another aspect that looks suspiciously like dumping on welfare families. There have been lots of arguments about why truancy occurs. We seem to all be accepting that truancy only occurs in families on welfare. This cannot be the case. Why doesn’t Labors policy spell out what they plan to do to parents with truant kids who aren’t on welfare?
I thought it is very apt that King Cross is a part of Wentworth where its sitting member Malcolm Turnbull was doing a “deep throat” (according to 4corners last Monday) on his former friend Kerry “Goanna” Packer. Just as well that it wasn’t done at the Pink Pussycat. Otherwise, it would have been a very deep “deep throat”.
Ron - with 13,778,553 people currently on the electoral roll and Newspoll having 6.6 million of those people being dissatisfied with the Nightwatchman, he could be around for a fair while yet losing 12 people a minute before only the true die hard ALP supporters are left telling Newspoll that they love Brendan
253 Ron, I have faith that Nelson will never be dissatisfied with himself - given his penchant for loving the sad stories, I’d say the lower his approval rating goes, the more happy he gets with himself.
(He probably spends idle moments dreaming about buying a Tarago and lining up for petrol on Tuesday nights… maybe throwing a wheelchair in the back just in case)
Ron, GG, Finns
McCain up 46-44 in the latest Gallup during the Dems convention. Looks like more tears in November for the Dems.
Possum,
This has been Nelson’s problem all year. Liberal supporters actually prefer Rudd to him.
This is why he can’t last as leader.
There is an old saying that applies to the Libs if they want to get back to Government.
“I would not be starting from here”.
ESJ,
Hillary, 2012.
259 ESJ, I’m inclined to agree with you on that one…a long ways to go, but Obama needs a bump from this week…momentum has been lost a bit.
ESJ, she looked, sounded and performed sensationally, like a truly POTUS candidate. Let see how Obama performs on Thursday. If the recent poll numbers and commentaries are to be believed, the Dems have picked the wrong candidate.
GG and the problem is they need to find someone whom ALPs supporters prefer to Rudd.
Turnbull? For a while maybe until they get to know him… anyone else? I’m struggling to think of one.
Maybe they could see if Julia wants to swap parties. If they offered Tanner the treasury maybe he would come across with her.
Finns The Hopemaster even had the gall to set up a faux Rose Garden stage in the stadium.
Come November “plouffe” and “axelrod” will be the names the democrats dare not speak.
Grog
“He probably spends idle moments dreaming…”
As you ar aware Turnbull supporters say Brenda dreams daily in front of a mirror sayng who I better than me , who would Newspoll poll , th mirror answer or Brenda’s…within MOE
I beleive th Liberals ar frozen between Brenda who they know is no good and his toffyiness who they ar scared may be better
ESJ @ 249
Oh. I was getting really curious there for a while. I thought Ruddy must have done a Teddy. ‘Who was his Wallace?’ I was thinking.
I would give it a while yet, but I agree with you insofar as the Rudd Government having some fairly conservative inclinations.
When you structure the whole shebang to be a competition for the centre in a two horse race, that is what you tend to get.
Rudd/Gillard will do some important things that the libnats would never do, but I suspect it will never stray very far from the middle ground.
Rudd and his team are all about spin and little action. A 21 Billion surplus, a water policy which practically says the lower Murray lakes can die and an economy going nowhere.
This country has a problem with creating ideas and vision, the concern is the other side has ideas either and is generally the same or if anything slightly worse.
Meant Nelson has no ideas either.
Marky Marky hs no ideas either.
marky marky @ 269
That is cruel. Nelson has plenty of ideas. It is just that they are above his station.
Julia on LL at the moment. Anyone know who the presenter is?
Grog,
The first step is surely to find someone you can get behind?
“find someone you can get behind”
All the better to stab them in the back?
Think there levels of dislike between Brenda and his toffyiness were not only evident in this weeks 4 corners program but polls themselves Assume no opposition leader in ‘oz’ history State or Federal has held on to his position to fight an electon (assuming that) , so Liberals do know they hav to change
There problem seems that despite polls showing his toffyiness ‘more electable’ & surprisingly imprtantly equal with Cossie with Labor voters that dislike is strong
wondr if part is tffoyiness is new boy on blok since only 2003 and has leepfrogged all th 12 rear Howard Govt guys & gals , and he is small ‘L’ to them as well vs there mentor th rodent
Yep lets introduce a truancy program which blackmails minority groups into making sure their kids go to school, a program not about funding programs in schools to make kids to want to be at school. Populist nonsense which will go down well amongst right wing Sydney shock jocks. A policy which takes the easy road. No political will at all.
GG more of the same from you no doubt in regards to policy. The same old economic rationalist bulldust which is ruining this country and creating massive disparities throughout the world.
How dumb is LL to compare Hilary spekaing at the convention with Rudd at the press club - apples with very over-ripe oranges??
How about comparing her with his election launch address to get some equality? (not that I’m suggesting Rudd is a great public speaker)
Ron,
How about the Blues. 8-10 wins as predicted with another chance on Saturday.
Great effort from a young team on the rise.
Get on board the Carlton express for 2009. Probable top 4 and Premiership chance.
Marky,
Put your racist KKK mask on.
I’ve come to the conclusion that Rudd will never satisfy the left of the party, as we have seen here but he will be in power for quite awhile. The left would have him out of power next election if they had their way.
Judge Growler at 260: “I would not be starting from here”
It’s pretty funny.
The Libs have to careful on this though - there was a group of affluent Libs (make up about 1.5%-2% of the electoral role) that swung back to the Coalition in the last 3 weeks of the campaign, and they have, for all intents and purposes apparently moved back to Rudd over the first 6 months of this year.
The problem for the Libs is making sure they come back.
In many respects Nelson is for the Libs like Crean was for the ALP, except Crean had a comparatively decent TPP score by sponging prefs off the Greens. It took BOTH Latham and Rudd to fix the ALP primary from the dismal state that Crean left it in (and if anyone wants to argue about Latham, give me a yell and I’ll show you the data, it goes against the popular narrative a fair bit here).
Leaders can shift demographic groups semi-permanently - but what happens if Turnbull turns out to be (as I think I’ve said here before) a Mark Latham in a Fioravanti suit, but without the suburban mum bounce and the demographic drawback facility?
The Libs need to be careful because Nelson (and not only Nelson, but the entire shadow cabinet) are in danger of FUBARing accountable government for a few terms by pretending that this veneer of credibility they have is actually real. It wont be real until they have real leadership - and by real leadership I mean someone that the public doesn’t think is a complete cockspank. But by the time they pull their heads out, they could have whistled two terms up the wall simply because of the effects of electoral hysteresis that occurs with the primary vote of a party under poor leadership.
272 Grog - Leigh Sales. Rudd isn’t a great salesman but hell neither was Howard FFS.
GG you have not changed. The same old silly personal attacks upon people. You never seem to have anything to say which is credible or is intelligent. Go back to the Banyule council mob.
Ron @ 275
I would have to say I used to think Turnbull was the obvious choice. Now I am not so sure.
Turnbull would have been opposition leader except that in the immediate aftermath of the election he started making public policy statements. There were two things about this: (a) they were not the result of consultation, and (b) they were policies with which important elements of the libs disagreed. Despite that, he still got to within 3 votes.
Now, when they have all had an opportunity to study him a bit more carefully:
He was successful on the Wright case.
HIH/FAI, well…let’s just say, sub judice
The republic failure.
The fairfax failure thinggie including, as a subplot, ratting on a goanna - I mean to say, how Australian is that?
Sort of 3/4 on the biggies have not exactly panned out. His personal failings have also been extensively noised abroad.
If the Messiah is not the Messiah, despite Shanahan’s best efforts, then can Turnbull really be the No 2 Messiah? It just has to be quite questionable.
My view is that they should simply head for the next generation.
Possum,
Don’t agree with the analysis. However, what Rudd has done is make the transition a continuum. ESJ is right to a certain extent. What Rudd has done is smooth the change of government so most people don’t even know it has happened.
A triumph of Australian democracy.
The same Lateline whom made allegations about pedophile being rife in aboriginal communities. Currently their are have been less than five cases, and Lateline well this issue has long gone. No doubt helping Howards policy of intervention and a Land rights grab.
All of a sudden Rudd should be giving showy speeches, inspirational speeches, narratives. What is all of this BS all about? Let him present it the way he knows best. People aren’t exactly clamouring for a change of style or asking for a definitive message. They just want him to get on with it.
Possum @ 281
Please, what does ‘FUBARing’ mean?
Marky Marky @ 276
There were some very good posts by Harry Snapper Organs on the this topic further up the string, and which you may have missed.
marky,
You are a dreay little nobody who professes support for Labor but always criticises. Never, is there a positive.
From the heart of my bottom, please one day, before you shred your mortal coil, say something positive about your Labor Government.
282 GB, ta, haven’t been watching LL for a while I forgot who she was.
The main reason I don’t think Turnbull will be the man for the Libs, is by the time the republican referendum rolled around even I was thinking of voting no just because he was so insufferable.
Enemy Marsupial
“there was a group of affluent Libs (make up about 1.5%-2% of the electoral role) that swung back to the Coalition in the last 3 weeks of the campaign”
Beleive instead 3 of 4 Polls to Sat before electon were big Labor leads , think swing was in last week & reflected in last week , th move back was widespread except Q’ld so alot of non affluent Libs must hav moved in other electorates , think many reasons including a more focused attack on voters of financial effect of a Government change hitting peoplesthoughts of there pockets (a tsanami)rather than th weak Liberal more general approach , thats 4 disagreements Enemy Marsupial for us
GG my final comment tonight, i could say the same about you but in reverse.
Yes immigration policy they have been very good here and their policy on medicare rebates is also good.
Luxury cars tax is also good policy with some adustments needed.
Climate change policy although recognising it they i am afraid are doing little.
Emissions trading has been a failure in Europe and do not understand why we need a masive surplus. How about issuing bonds and invest in solar energy, i bet they super funds would buy them very quickly. But i am afraid we have a government stuck in the mud for ideas and innovative initiatives.
Marky,
Don’t let the door hit you on the arse on the way out.
Exactly Bruce. It’s only the MSM who are pleading for this ridiculous ‘narrative’ rubbish. The people couldn’t give a damn. They just want Rudd to put his head down, let him do his job and then assess his performance in 3 years.
Grog
“by the time the republican referendum rolled around even I was thinking of voting no just because he was so insufferable.”
me to Grog , those 4 corners adds of toffyines spitting dummy would be reely damaging in an electon , Liberals need to llokk to ”left’ field to stabilise like Julia or even toughen up Joe Hockey , even if interim till 2010
exactly exactly Dario , they’re etting on with lives at moment ..reasonably content , & polls show i think
268
marky marky Says:
Rudd and his team are all about spin and little action. A 21 Billion surplus, a water policy which practically says the lower Murray lakes can die…
Prithee, from whence magically cometh this water to slake said parched lands?
Greeny at 285, I agree with what your saying there - Rudd has been, deliberately, a seamless transition. And it’s a clever political approach.
But I think some demographics at the moment aren’t actually about Rudd, anymore than the so called “Howard battlers” were about Howard between 1996 and 1998. BEtween 96 and 98 they were all about whatever else was on the table (or rather the absence of it) in that period, and in many respects I think the same applies to Rudd - except this time the people Rudd has brought on board that are at risk aren’t the people that won him the election per ce (although there’s certainly a chunk of that in there), but are the people he’s gathered since his election win.
And it’s with those post-Rudd-election converts that the Liberal Party is in danger over.
Boerwar at 288
F*cked Up Beyond All Recognition
GG,
Are you really stuck in the City Banyule? Some lucky Greensborough residents get to live in the Shire of Nillumbik, the most livable municipality in the country.
Sorry, the most livable municipality in the state. It is the most livable in the country among only those with median house prices below $1 million.
‘And it’s with those post-Rudd-election converts that the Liberal Party is in danger over.’
but alot of that is a mirage , unrealistic to think 56/44 would be a result , alot of pro Labor & anti Liberal factors there , 54/46 would be an unbelievable achievement to get (and massive win) This is 2.5 years from an electon & public ar content
Possum,
As we all know, the pre poll tpp figures were 56 and the election day tpp were 53. The latest polls show the same 56 numbers. Now, do we beleive the polls or do we believe the election? Don’t know.
Utterly respect how you get in to the quantitive aspect. Personal gut feel is that Kevin is travelling alright down here in Melbourne.
Chris,
Banyule rate about 30% less than Nillumbik?
Absolutely ron. The MSM and opposition (do I really need to separate them… the message seems to be the same) are never the less trying to spread the story of a government in trouble, for whatever reason seems convenient at the time. The evidence just isn’t there.
yep Dario , 54/46 spread would be a rout & its looking good , MSN seem ‘lost’ what to do as they’ve had exero efect
Actually Greeny (303), the pre-poll election figures were spot on for Newspoll, Morgan and Galaxy (with only Nielsen having a bout of systemic bias that election).
The public polls from what I’ve seen and heard pretty much tracked the party polling (with a bit of MoE difference at the fringes but not the last polls before election day).
People *DID* move in the last 3 weeks, and the undecideds and people that usually refuse to answer polls *DID* break to the government in the last week. Those anti-union adds were apparently pretty effective - especially in constraining the size of the ALP margins in outer-metro seats (and they saved Duttons skin in Dixon), but a chunk of the affluent Libs ran back to the Coalition as well over the same period. I don’t think anyone has really figured out why the latter group did that yet but, as you could imagine, theories abound and most probably arent worth a pinch of shit.
But since then, those hesitants, those incumbent breakers and the chunk of affluent wet libs that were pretending to be moving to Labor have, post-election, come back.
The big questions I suppose are whether the affluent wet-libs are still pretending (as they did in 07, as well as in North Sydney in 04 during Latham’s peak) to be ALP voters but will vote Coalition when push comes to shove, whether the Libs being in Opposition will be a barrier to getting them back if Rudd governs in even a mediocre fashion, and whether those outer suburban groups than broke toward the Coalition off the back of those anti-union ads will come back to an Opposition (which I dont think they will - that last group are incumbent sticklers).
Bring into that the dying of the Coalitions strongest demographic (today the 65+ group), the abysmal youth vote for the Coalition and Rudd doing, as you say, the seamless transition - poor leadership like Nelson could be structurally damaging the Liberal vote.
Possum,
Do not disagree with your analysis. The question is how accurate the current polls, given they can change significanly in the last week or so.
The answer is always the trend. However, you gotta ask how accurate the quantum.
My recollection & don’t hav figures at moment is Newspoll, Morgan and Nielsen showed big labor leads Sat before electon , with Galaxy at around 4 points diff
Ar we saying those polls were only wrong because there calcs of ‘undecided’ were wrong and most undecided instead went to Libs or swing happened in last week as reported by one MSN of internal Liberla & Labor polling (that said swing got stopped dead with pamphlet disclosure)
and GG , abit cheeky thinking top4 , not just settling for th 8
Ron,
Best talented side for Carlton since early eighties.
Ready to cause carnage.
better than 95
I’m with you there Greeny - I actually think the polls were accurate and that it was the people that moved in the last few weeks, especially the last week, and (I suppose, importantly here for poll tragics) that the polls merely measured the last minute change in public opinion.
Last minute changes are easy to explain in terms of people breaking to what they know, returning to the bosom of incumbency and familiarity so to speak, but the danger now is that without incumbency, the Coalition is naked when it comes to getting those folks back.
Which poses a dilemma; if its usually incumbency that causes Teh Narrowing when it occurs - what happens if it’s not the incumbent that’s behind?
I think Nelson needs to be surgically removed from the leadership ASAP - I fear that keeping him will, if it hasn’t already, cause structural damage to the Liberal vote and make them a eunuch Opposition of the kind that cannot hold a government accountable.
And that ain’t good for anybody.
Ron,
95 great side of champion players who were mostly well establised. 79-82 three premiersships in 4 years. They came, they saw and conquered.
But, Love em all.
Possum
Life would be better without the customers?
GG , thought you’d say that re 79 to 82
Leaving aside get out of jail excuse of MOE , this Poll ‘explanation’ th Pollsters ar NOW giving out I do not buy You’ve got statisticaly 6 consecutaive months of all 4 pollsters showing a big Labor lead right up to Sat before electon
So in absolute and trend terms for 6 months th 4 pollsets agreed Labor had a big lead , Gallaxy brroke ranks only on Sat befor eleton with a ‘narrowing’
Now these 4 Pollsters ar saying , lets forget all those 6 months of polling , er er , th ‘error’ was in our calcs of ‘undecided’ , and that error was there for 6 months by all 4 , and we never detected it , and they broke when ? , last week ?…some may say what was use of those 6 months polls or alternitively factors did occur in last week
RON,
Totally agree.
Trend is your friend in any poll or survey series. But, the problem is that the political polls all show labor at about 56%. This is the same in all the polls prior to the last federal election, apart from the week of the election.
Perhaps polls are totally reliable up until the moment you want to apply them.
Ron - you’re misconstruing what polls are.
Polls measure public opinion, and while, say, 90% of public opinion in any given week may be static, 10% isnt - and never really has been.
Galaxy, Morgan and Newspoll all came in at 52’s and 53’s as their last poll because that’s where the public opinion they were measuring shifted to.
We knew Labor were going to win because their trend was high enough to withstand any usual shift we could expect to see in opinion from that group of flitty voters in the last week.
The pollster weren’t saying “let’s forget those 6 months of polls”, they were saying “opinion shifted, and we measured it”
And we now know from the parties why some of that group moved in the last week - the Lib ads were effective, very effective in a certain demographic.
Opinion shifts at the margins quite rapidly - it’s what makes polling hard get a handle on, and why, for the tragics among us, you can never really have enough analysis to try and get to the bottom of it. It’s why we need big samples, it’s why we need to measure the trends, it’s why we need to break down demographics.
th figures you quoted were polls done in middle of last week
But up to Sat before electon & for 6 months before they were consistent & a big margin , and they ar th figures , which reasonably would conclude they were of little benefit except to say Labor would win irrespective
But polls also measure a margin , so it does not explain preceding 6 months by all 4 nor calcs on undecided vs final electon result ….except ‘events’ occuring in last week , pollsters can not hav it both ways …produce 6 months worth and then say they wwere reely right when they were out ..except as I suggest ‘events’ occuring in last week
and my argument supports State polling at min vs National , because cost factor cann’t be used as an argement against this if by keeping costs down you produce 6 months of grossly inflated margin leads
Ron - it does explain the 6 months previous to the election because some people simply changed their mind.
That happens.
Polls do nothing more than measure opinion at a given point in time. If opinion changes, the polls change with it.
And that’s what happened at the margins.
Hence 54-56 went down to 52.7
If opinion changes, the polls change with it.
Opinion change had to in th last week , unlike previous 6 months is only reasonable conclusion IF IF polls of prior 6 months ar to retain credibility …then one needs to find out why , and if it can be future ‘partly’ factored
Another reason for the late move in the polls may have been the anti-landslide factor. Some voters knew Howard was gone but didn’t want the ALP to win too big, so a they decided to put in a spoiling vote and not follow the masses.
Ron, the polls changed over the last 3 weeks, with the largest change being the final week.
Why? Because people changed their minds, and changed them at different times.
Polls didn’t require the election result to be the same as the polls had measured for 11 months previously to retain credibility - people changed their minds, they’re allowed to, they do it all the time.
That’s the ENTIRE POINT of election campaigns.
To get a few people (and a few people was all it ever was, and is all it ever usually is as a percent) to change their minds.
As to why they changed their minds, final week and post election party polling seems to have found out about half the reason, especially in the outer metro seats which we’ve mentioned earlier - the rest, as always, will remain a mystery.
And on that, I’m off to my tree - night all.
Dario thats a fair point , and also my sense Libs scare adds on Labor messing economy/messing interst rates in last week were harsher than prior
My ‘variance’ with Enemy Marsupial is 4 Pollster’s 6 months polls of huge Labor leads , can NOT hav credibility vs final result….unless
1// acceptance that movement happened in LAST week yet my friend is still saying last 3 weeks which is why I challenged , it had to be last week to make last 6 months Polls STILL credible , and
2/ a reasonable explanations given why in last week th Polls & result so dramaticaly happened , and you’ve given one possible reason , changing there mind is sort of one , libs better scare adds may be another , and may be other reasons like there method of allocating ’soft’ voting intentions may all get lumped into firm voing intentions without appropriate weightings
(otherwise we may as well ignore all Polls to middle of election week in 2010 because people might change there minds so am unpoersuaded with tht argument as an explanation !! IF i’m going to continue to treat poll trends well , except broadly to know if Labor is ‘winning’ , would better than that )
“And on that, I’m off to my tree - night all.”
I’m off to my barbarian tent
I’m off too. That’s why the wife is holding her nose. Nite all.
Voters want results not vision
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24251895-7583,00.html
Possum,
I think you’re right, Nelson’s leadership is probably doing long-lasting damage to the Liberal Party.
Notwithstanding the “anyone but Turnbull” sentiment that seems to be keeping him there, I’d be amazed if he’s still leader at the end of this year.
Turnbull is the next generation, isn’t he?
I can see Rudd deciding that he’s going to break this “Labor is captive of the unions” thing once and for all. Maybe next time the wet Libs won’t break back to the Coalition inthe last week.
Was pleased to see Leigh Sales ask Julia to compare Rudd’s speech with Hilary’s. I’d studiously avoided American election hoopla, primaries etc. until yesterday when I decided to check out Hilary’s speech as I had the TV on anyway. So this was the first speech of hers I’d seen pretty much in full. I thought it was magnificent.
This morning on the radio, reports said she’d saved the best till last, that it was a great speech. So I guess I tuned in at the right time. It was worth comparing to Rudd’s pedestrian effort yesterday. Both were made at critical times. However, Julia’s answer to the criticism was that the two speeches were made under different conditions: one a mid-term roundup, the other a pre-election oration to the troops.
Despite this Rudd’s effort should have been more exciting. We’re being assaulted by bad news on almost every front. Day-in, day-out the news and current affairs programs compete with each other to be more miserable than the other guy. We need some good news, some indication of just where we’re headed, or could be headed if we get of our collective butts and have a go. Hilary’s speech did this. Rudd’s did not.
There seems to be an attitude here that modern politics has too many glossy orations like Hilary’s and too few workmanlike gigs like Rudd’s. I can’t agree. I think we’ve elevated the workmanlike into the default position because that’s all we’re ever going to get from Rudd, so why not make a virtue out of the necessity?
Rudd’s speech: full of details, dire threats against teachers and principals, filling out forms, totting up columns of figures to reveal effectiveness of schooling, hard road ahead, starting almost from stratch, shoulders to the wheel.
Hilary’s: light on details, big on ideas and aspirations, take the high ground back, let’s be great again for all the right reasons. We’re smart and clever and democratic, free, we already know we can do it, let’s do it again.
The classic contrast between architect and tradesman. Both are needed to get the building up, with the emphasis on “both”. We’re not getting the inspiration from Rudd. He’s too scared of appearing to be flighty or insubstantial, and I think it’s in his nature anyway to plod along. It’s going to be a long, dreary road, and by definition there’s never an end in sight.
Thank God the other side is even worse.
Pearson says Feds are tougher than his truancy regime.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/28/2348540.htm?section=justin
WOW! However bad the Iemma government is, the Liberal opposition has just demonstrated how intellectually and economically bankrupt they are!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24253236-601,00.html
I’m kinda glad electricity privatization might not go ahead.
1. It was against the party platform.
2. Against public opinion.
3. It means they might hesitate to bulldoze the lovely bush near my home to put up a ventilation complex (size of a football field in the middle of virgin forest) for the North-West Metro if they don’t get the funds.
“3″ above is of course quite selfish and personal, but the process of approval for this facility had been secretive and deliberately misleading by the government, and that’s not right when people’s homes, neighbourhood amenity and property values are at stake.
That’ll teach me to live in a Lib-voting electorate.
Nobody comes out of this mess in N.S.W looking good!
Iemma’s leadership is terminal, and O’Farrell has demonstrated he’s little more than a shameless, political opportunist, and a short term one at that(rather like his boss in Canberra). So, in the run up to 2011, we have a government in paralysis, and an opposition with no policies or practical solutions to fix the problems in this state!
Bushfire Bill
330
“It’s going to be a long, dreary road, and by definition there’s never an end in sight.”
I watched the speech yesterday too and thought the delivery pedestrian and the content profoundly disappointing.
I think tough action against parents letting their kids habitually truant is needed!
In the 80s I built a couple timber frame houses with business partner. One set of tenants pushed their kids out the house at 9.00am and didn’t let them back in till 5.00pm! The kids did a lot of damage trying to get into the house.
One time we drove up and I noticed the rubbish bin had fallen over so I righted it and put the rubbish that had fallen out back in the bin and noticed one bit was a school report card–a wave of nausea swept through me that they could just throw it away! I am 61 and bet old Mum could find my Grade 1 report card in a few minutes!
I opened the report card and at the bottom the teacher had written “. . .needs more attention” and I knew the kid was never ever going to get that!
So some parents need to be belted with a 2 by 4 to ensure kids in school, do homework etc etc.
Also know in many houses 2-3 TVs would all be on, how the kids could concentrate on homework is something that beats me! Maybe the schools should allow kids that wanted to or needed it to do homework at school after school closed?
There are some real arseholes out there!
Bushfire Bill: I think I’m in the same electorate as you(Epping). And we’ve got a dickhead for a local member! Andrew Tink was a genius compared to that clown Greg Smith. Yep, it’s the price we Laborites pay for living in blue ribbon Liberal land.
Iemma has no plan B, that’s pretty much it for him and Costa! Who the hell replaces him, I don’t know! Nathan Rees? LMAO.
Watkins would be probably the most experienced of the alternatives, but the public transport thing is a millstone around his neck!
On the other side: Big Bad Barry is proved to be little more than a lightweight.
Where are his policies?
And will the business community stop donating to the Liberals? Probably not!
Jovial Monk
336
Problem is how does it help the children if they have nothing to eat for 13 weeks because their parents are being penalised for not sending them to school?
What utter tripe. One was made to a football stadium full of cheering one-eyed supporters a few months before an election on arguably the biggest television audience you get for political speeches. The other was made a year into the term of a new government to a room full of journalists with barely a busload full of television viewers. If you’re going to compare like with like then compare it to Rudd’s ALP election launch speech for goodness sake.
In news that hardly needs reporting, Senator Nick Xenephon has said in his maiden speech that his vote is not for sale:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/28/2348615.htm
Of course its not! After all that would be unlawful, and Nick is a lawyer, not some media-stunt driven self-publicist. You almost wonder why he even needed to make the statement? Maiden speeches are normally for saying what you stand for not what you won’t do. Nick made clear that he wanted to find a solution for the river Murray, ban poker machines, and maintain funding for the CSIRO. Only everything else would be negotiable. ROTFL
Well the Senate (opposition) has gone into full spin mode already. Opposition Senator Eric Abetz confirmed that the coalition would oppose the luxury car tax because the Senate committee report said it was inflationary.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/28/2348799.htm?section=justin
Only trouble is, the report says that the tax will be useful for FIGHTING inflation, with higher income earners havign received large tax cuts and currency movements mean that the prices of these cars have come down a lot:
http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/committee/economics_ctte/tlab_luxurycars_08/report/report.pdf
Courageous of Eric to fight for the rights of a wealthy person to buy an expensive (invariably foreign made) vehicle? Has anyone pointed out that almost every single one of these cars is imported? Noticed job losse in the car industry lately? I hope they (Labor) pursue them over this nonsense.
Dario, I was only paraphrasing what Julia said. In fact what you wrote seems to be a pretty good summation of what I wrote too: one was a pre-election rah-rah speech and the other was a mid-term (or middish-term) report with some stuff about COAG and sacking teachers.
Just would have liked to see Kevi open up a little. I know he has it in him. I wonder why he doesn’t let go sometimes and put the fools in the Opposition to shame for their grubby pedestrianism.
I get sick and tired of hearing bad news. We need a little geeing up every now and again. For Gillard to describe Rudd’s speech as outlining his vision for Australia was plain wrong. It outlined his vision for a subset of the Education portfolio.
For example, he didn’t say why education was important; what can be done by a well-educated population; what it can achieve that it’s not achieveing now. It just seems to be sort-of assumed that an educated nation is a “good thing” and that the benefits are self-evident.
After listening to the speech I was left with visions of assessment forms, P&C meetings to protest school closures and poor teaching performance, public servants in Canberra and the state capitals filling out forms, writing letters to each other and so on. All very necessary stuff as the policy is implemented, but hardly much to excite the imagination as a “vision”. In fact, more the opposite, I’d venture.
Judging by the new truancy policy there are also many parents who don’t see the self-evident benefits of education for their kids, and clearly many of the kids don’t either.
{#
338
Grace Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Jovial Monk
336
Problem is how does it help the children if they have nothing to eat for 13 weeks because their parents are being penalised for not sending them to school?}
Because the parents like to eat/drive etc so they will ensure junior gets to school.
I would expect that Michael Costa will pull the pin shortly.
I also expect Costa to blast the ALP, trade unions, the Liberal Party and humanity in general for his failure to sell off NSW electricity assests.
BB, you said ‘It was worth comparing to Rudd’s pedestrian effort yesterday’, and I don’t think it was at all. While you may want us to go all american with the hoopla and hollywood rubbish they have, I’d wager the the vast majority of this country certainly wouldn’t. The last thing we need is to see Australian politicans giving speeches like their US counterparts, so they just shouldn’t ever be put side by side for comparison.
Fagin Says:
I would expect that Michael Costa will pull the pin shortly.
Good riddance.
Jovial Monk, maybe Ruddster could hire people a Nanny, like he hired for his own kids on the public purse.
345 Dario - spot on.
What is showing up in polls (and I use the polls because they’re the only measuring stick we have to measuring public opinion on politics) that suggests Rudd is not performing well? Surely if it aint broke you don’t set about fixing it.
Dario, you miss my point. I’m not saying that Rudd should be all hoopla, but every now and again he should filp the switch and get into the inspiration thing.
The recitation of dreary outcomes, dire warnings, future COAG agendas, process-based outcomes and public service double-speak has its place, but in my opinion we need to be told - in competely unequivocal terms - where it is all taking us; why it’s going to be worth it.
The racing car driver can meander on about how he’s going to adjust the injector, crank up the drive shaft, polish the valves (or whatever). That has its place. But occasionally he needs to get up in front of his team and say “Just to remind you all… We’re gonna win no matter what. We’re gonna take the prize and we’re gonna succeed where others have failed. That’s really what we’re about and where all this pain and process is going to get us.” Same with any sportsman or business person, and I suggest politician: they should lead, and do it by showing us the goal, and they should make that goal attractive, even exciting to get the people following to want to achieve that goal.
I can’t imagine anyone hearing Rudd’s speech and wanting to get straight out, then and there, and start the process. More likely they would graon, “Oh Jesus… more late nights.”
On the other hand, speeches like Hilary’s and those of other great orators can energize a population and make them enthusiastic about the most daunting tasks.
In trying to be the anti-hoopla Prime Minister, I think Rudd has gone too far the other way.
GB, Kevin’s position in the polls has a lot to do with the Libs’ poor performance.
Would you rather do well in relative terms, or in absolute terms? Would you rather our leaders were a little better than their opponents, or great and good in themselves?
“For example, he didn’t say why education was important; what can be done by a well-educated population; what it can achieve that it’s not achieving now. It just seems to be sort-of assumed that an educated nation is a “good thing” and that the benefits are self-evident.”
BB had Rudd said all of that the same number of people who read and saw yesterday’s effort would be reading and watching. Most wouldn’t be aware or care that he gave a speech.
As for bad news you know as well as I do that the media feed on bad news. The good news ends up at the end of news programs or past page 15 of papers. Whatever Rudd says will be turned into bad news.
“GB, Kevin’s position in the polls has a lot to do with the Libs’ poor performance.” You left off the “in part”. If he was seen as incompetent or without a vision (a vision which was clearly put during the election campaign I might add - he did win) those polls in these economic circumstances, with a somewhat hostile media and bad news all around, would have quickly changed. They haven’t.
I thought there was plenty of inspiration during the six months before the election, and that was exactly the time for it (and funnily enough that’s where the US electoral cycle is at the moment), but surely now is the time for putting the head down and getting on with it. Stop listening to the MSM and all their rubbish about this ‘narrative’ crap. It’s just utter bs that they are using to trying to paint Rudd as doing nothing while they ignore everything that he has implemented and has begun implementing. The grand plans will bear fruit but the major things the government is doing will simply not provide short term results. If the people aren’t paying attention to the MSM’s rubbish, why are you?
I think you are asking for a show pony BB and I don’t believe people want that. Nor do I think Rudd is capable of it. They’ve had 11 years of bland and are very happy to accept more. Results are what they’re after not a performing seal.
So they spent tens of thousands of dollars recalling parliament for nothing…
Australian has article headed: ‘Opium output rises in Afghanistan’.
The article then provides the details: ‘The total amount of opium harvested fell from 8200 tonnes to 7700 tonnes.
BTW, remember when Vanstone was running around crowing about victory against opium growing?
The Rudd speech style issue and narrative themes are intriguing. There is a huge amount of policy stuff out there for serious consideration but the OO, for example, spends a disproportionate amount of space fretting about style and narrative. It is apparently not a serious concern for the large majority of people who are still expressing satisfaction with Rudd as PM.
Some of the posts above also indicate a yearning for a bit of fire.
It seems to me that the real question here may be: ‘Is Rudd’s approach to his speeches deliberate?’ Let’s just assume for a moment that he is smart enough to reflect on his style and the sort of impact it is having. Let’s also assume that he is aware of the narrative issue and the yearning for a bit of the vision thing and a bit of the fire in the belly thing. So, if the style is deliberate, and Rudd is cocking a snoot at the screeching of the OO parrots, then perhaps his real ’style’ aims could be:
1. to keep expectations focused and dampened by not raising the emotional temperature too much.
2. to present as calm, reasonable, in control and perhaps even (?) a bit boring.
3. avoiding differentiating himself too far from the people he is talking to by adopting a conversational sort of tone of voice.
4. to put the sharpest possible contrast himself with the confected outrage and faux passion of John Howard’s later efforts and the mealy-mouthed passion of the bleeding, caring Nelson?
5. to portray himself and the Government as meritorious technocrats by focusing on addressing issues and practical responses,
6 to present as a practical, focused doer and not as a bullshitting hyperbolic messiah.
Just to get a bit more context than Howard and Nelson: My choice for last century’s most effective public speaker was Hitler. My choice for the most responsive audiences were Soviet audiences when comrade Stalin was saying a word or two.
In NSW labour is for privatisation of electricity generating and the liberals are against it.
So, who put what in the water?
What’s the world coming to?
The Liberal Party and its supporters are long time proponents of electricity privatisation in NSW.
The ALP, at least at a grass roots level and within trade unions, is against the wholesale privatisation of public assets.
The Liberal Party now appears to oppose privatisation, whilst elements of the ALP wholeheartedly support it.
O’Farrell’s going to come out of this smelling a wee bit stinky, especially within the ranks of the business community. I dare say many grass roots Libs are miffed at O’Farrell’s shameless political stunt.
As for Costa: ride off into the sunset, you clown.
357
Boerwar
Well said. I would add
7. Being restrained and pragmatic now and focused on the boring details of genuine policy development, means that when he does make an inspirational vision speech, it will have far more background, depth and impact.
{#
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TurningWorm Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Jovial Monk, maybe Ruddster could hire people a Nanny, like he hired for his own kids on the public purse.}
And he could stay at Kirribilly like the Rodent, causing millions of dollars expense and endless inconvenience.
Grocery choice saves heaps Peter. Hiring comedy DVD’s is quite expensive but the creative forward thinking Rudd Govt has saved many people a motza with just a few clicks getting the average person heaps of chuckles for very little (well other than our tax contributions towards the latest Rudd inspired bureaucracy.)
I sure have to take issue with anyone criticising Grocery Choice. While I agree it has been a spectacular failure by any measure, how many previous Govts had the foresight to waste big money by replicating what most people throw out when it clogs up their mailbox without reading i.e. junk-mail ,not forgetting that this is new age , forward thinking just like he promised us. Tops !
My one minor criticism is there are not many photos of Kevin with any glamorous female Australian celebrities on the website however that is possibly because the girls are all in Australia whereas he on the other hand …. well..
Wacko of Berowra Hts (Reply)
Tue 26 Aug 08 (06:37pm)
Grocerywatch
some comments
I’ve never looked at it.
My local supermarkets send out flyers every week and the butchers and fruit shop display their specials outside their shop and occasionally place an ad in the paper.
Why would I waste time looking at something that is updated once a month and gives me choices that are laughable.
I was in Darwin when people discovered that prices were being compared between Darwin and Katherine (300kms away)
Grocery Watch, like Fuelwatch, is a sad, sorry waste of time and money. I would go as far as to say these are both initiatives that are an insult to our intelligence.
Jane (Reply)
Tue 26 Aug 08 (05:27pm)
I have logged onto GroceryChoice once and found it completely useless, it is very general and clearly another stunt by this dishonest government.
It is high time Mr Rudd came clean with the “Howard Battlers” that he mislead during the election campaign, he said he would bring down the cost of petrol and groceries and has done neither, GroceryChoice is an unacceptable waste of taxpayers money.
Mr Rudd needs to start taking responsibility for the cost of living pressures that are increasing under his stewardship and stop waffling on about 16 year inflation highs and 10 consecutive interest rate rises under the Howard government. Mr Rudd knows full well that the Howard Government managed the economy well including fiscal policy and that is why we now have such a large budget surplus. Inflation and interest rates were also managed well under the Howard government and would have been far worse under a Labor government if history is anything to judge by. Has Mr Rudd forgotten that rates were 10 percent higher under that elitist nutter Keating.
Our jet setting Priminister seems more interested on strutting the world stage and being a celebrities handbag than getting on with the job that he promised to do for those on struggle street. If he really wants to live such an opulent life of luxury travelling first class with his millionaire wife every month or so perhaps he should seek employment in the private sector or just retire early. I think that voters expect Priministers to travel and understand that first class is acceptable under such a high office but Mr Rudd is taking this privilege to a new level of abuse. Surely Mr Rudd has now used his quota of first class travel at our expense and should devote the rest of his term to resolving the domestic problems that he is ignoring. What is it with Labor Priministers, they all spend 12 months after their election travelling the world big noting themselves at tax payers expense? The next time Mr Rudd boards a 747 jumbo for some useless excuse to pontificate in front of a communist dictatorship, it will be seen as another slap in the face for the struggling working families that he used to deceive his way into government.
Darren of Sydney (Reply)
Tue 26 Aug 08 (06:14pm)
Just something for Ron way back at 213 and 172-174… all three of your links worked fine for me, but if you have trouble posting links try dropping off anything after a ?. They’re used for setting variables for the pages, and generally aren’t needed for just accessing a site. Once you hit the .html part of a link, you can just lop the rest off, so this link should work fine for you.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/14/us/politics/14rezko.html
Al
thanks for explaining that ,
so does that mean
“?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin” I should hav loped off including th ‘?’…?
Also when I called it up yesterday after posting it , it came up with th actual New York Times story heading but NO story , instead a ’suscriber login’ requird ..then I tried 2 other trys as you saw…same thing ..YET today I can pull it come , do you hav any ideas Al
Rezko makes Brian Burke look like an Angel of of decency and honesty
362 dovif - Of course these were all Rudd supporters before the election and voted for him? I don’t suppose they remember Costello blasting Swan and Rudd for not guaranteeing to bring prices down during the election campaign.
Oh, and of course there is yourself. Non biased, a great fan of Rudd and wanting to see him succeed so that he gets in with a bigger majority next time. LOL
Ron,
From your link:
Mr. Rezko, 51, declined to comment. He has pleaded not guilty to the federal charges.
People who know Mr. Rezko describe him as warm and personable.
Gary
No I speak it like it is, which is much more then a lot on this site, when I first heard about it, I called it stupid for the following reasons
1. who cares about last months prices, they might not be cheapest now
2. The site does not tell you about the quality, you can probably go to the cheapest store and find that strawberry season is over/ their strawberries is too ripe/ their goods are near used by date.
3. Coles/Woolworth has specials each week, junk mail is a better source for bargain (last month’s prices helps noone)
4. As I said before, other retailers have a problem completing with Coles and Woolworth, who has more resources, this is a complain from IGA, who is not small
5. I am not driving 5km to go to get the cheapest apple, then 5km more to get oranges; fuel cost
6. Most people do not have time to go further than their local Coles/Woolworth/IGA
It was a stupid waste of $13 million, if Rudd gave every taxpayer a $1 tax cut it would be worth more. This is just done so Rudd looks like he is doing something
I have not heard of one thing that the website does well from anyone yet. If Howard introduced this, you would be typing this instead
There is competition to Coles/Woolies: Farmers Markets. FM are growing rapidly and give fresher better produce (fruit/veg/meat/fish/milk&cheese, eggs/bread/herbs/seedlings etc than the big chains. I have emailed the ACCC to have Farmers Markets included on the website and ‘they are looking at it.’
Website will be improved in other ways too.
Muskiemp
#367
“Ron,
From your link:
Mr. Rezko, 51, declined to comment. He has pleaded NOT guilty to the federal charges. People who know Mr. Rezko describe him as warm and personable.”
Appreciate you may wish to make Rezko seem ok for Obama , but given th long association on th PUBLIC record thats not possible
And as for your “He has pleaded NOT guilty”comment , th article was dated June 2007
Since then , in 2008 Rezko has been found GUILTY by jury of 3 counts of federal corruption and fraud , including ‘public’ officials
True re Grocery Watch seems to be a flop and probably want work, at least they are trying to use the new media to inform.
Fuel watch is not a failure as it has not yet been put in place nationally, where it is in place in WA it has been there for a number of years. What I want is a chance to make up my own mind whether I am able to find the cheapest petrol in my area for the next 24 hours. The oil companies are having a lend of us with the BS of ‘Cheap Fuel Day’ and it appears people like dovif are willing to push thier burrow. As far as the so called Independents they are just as bad as Big Oil.
Re GroceryWatch, it isnt as if it can’t be improved. I have rarely seen a first effort website from anyone that has been spot on first time. As for the $13 million, that is a drop in the ocean quite frankly compared to the billions wasted under Howard. The cost shouldn’t even come in to it.
For clarification , th 3 convictions actualy relate to th Federal corruption charges Rezko leaded not guilty on
Ron, Just pointing out that stories can be interpreted to say what people want them to say. Since as you say he has been found guilty well you are the one who gave us the link to a 2007 story.
“I have not heard of one thing that the website does well from anyone yet. If Howard introduced this, you would be typing this instead.” Possibly but I would also give him credit for trying something. As it was he did NOTHING.
Muskiemp #374
I did openly report th convictions , that is not correct
Refer my #171
“Thirdly Rezko , since th article has been actualy convicted in June 2008 on those 3 Federal charges of fraud & corruption referred to in article “
dovif @ 362
I am a bit with you on Grocery Choices. In its current manifestation, it is not doing the job. The test is whether consumers are using it, and, as a result, there is downward pricing pressure on groceries. No sign of this at all, at the moment.
Grocery Choices needs to be real time and easy enough to access so that individuals can use it to make choices on an item by item basis. It is technically possible to deliver this but it does not do so at the moment.
If the databases and the portals are properly constructed and integrated with the electronic pricing systems (focusing on the barcodes) in supermarkets, the marginal cost over time should be minute on a per purchase basis.
In general, prices should face downward pressure as a result of the additional competition, and the amount of physical effort to compare prices should be also be reduced.
The Aldi ad the day after the first report came out made it plain that not all grocery chains need fear grocery watch.
Let’s hope that in 6-12 months time the Government commissions a review and then implements the recommendations of that review.
A well-informed market would make it more efficient, and Grocery Choices should be improved rather than simply destroyed. Ditto Fuel Choices and, if it transpires, School Choices.
I think unit pricing will be a good thing too if that gets applied across all the big chains
Ron @ 365
The stench is similar but Burke would probably be insulted if he was compared with Rezko.
and with justification Boerwar !
Its why I’ve said if i lived there , I’d vote informal and go to th pub using th blank ballot paper as a coaster
Boerwar 357 - thanks, I reckon you have hit on Rudd’s thinking. Not sure that too much razzamataz would work in Oz but I understand BB wanting a bit more.
I was in Gallery at Parliament House earlier this week - Rudd looked and sounded confident - Opposition were ridiculous most of the time and it is a pity that the cameras don’t show exactly how they act when the Govt. is speaking. Pyne, Ciobbo, Duncan and a couple of others on the end of the row are proper clowns.
Re FuelWatch
Have spent past 4 weeks travelling and the petrol prices were infuriating. We kept passing petrol stations with different prices and usually missed the lowest because we thought the one ahead would be the same price. Sometimes the stations were only 2 blocks apart.
Canberra was the same - 2 blocks apart and different prices. Yesterday morning (when we left for home) one station was 8 cents less than the next one and both were Shell Stations showing discount dockets. Same thing in Pennant Hills - passed the cheap one and were left with the next two at higher prices.
If FuelWatch had been on web we could have used the laptop to check where we could benefit most.
Bugger the Opposition for opposing it - I am all for being informed whether I save a bit or not.
Re Truancy thing - I spent many years in law office in large country town. I was constantly depressed with the number of legal aid clients who saw no reason why they should get the kids off to school each day. Many reasons for it but most of them were through alcohol or drug addiction and the inability to get up early. This applied to both the indigenous and non-indigenous community. It was extremely sad and I spent many sleepless night worrying about it. I have come to the conclusion that perhaps withholding money is the only way to wake some of them up. So, if it is done correctly and with compassion, I am willing for Rudd to give it a go but with lots of backup.
Poss (and others) critisized ACCC modelling, that Perth prices only dropped by entry of Coles. Real question tho is: does Fuelwatch save the consumer money?
Picking up stuff for my shop can’t always just fill up on cheap tuesday, and by the time I drive home I couldn’t be buggered lining up to save a fw cents per litre, be nice if cheap tuesday was all day tuesday!
Sue @ 381
Thank you. Also interested on your experience re: fuel watch. I believe that motorists will have a sneaking suspicion that the Opposition has short-changed them if it opposes FuelWatch.
Interesting too your observations in Parliament. Basically, it is hard to see the Opposition making any gains while it behaves as if it is anything but a Government-in-Waiting. This is sort of laughable but it is not good for our democracy. We need them to start doing some hard policy work - and on this front they don’t appear to have made a good transition from government to opposition.
There were some very good posts by Harry Snapper Organs on the truancy issue. I sort of lost the thread when I asked whether there was a point to a bit of push and pull (pressure as well as well as support) so not sure what his view was there. Like yourself, he has had a lot of practical experience at the coal face, which I always regard highly.
I find it odd that allowing people to know where the cheapest petrol in their area or along their route might be, is a bad thing. Line up 10 stalls selling the same quality eggs and you will purchase from the cheapest one.
I also think that setting a future price for petrol that cannot be changed during the day will encourage outlets to avoid the temptation to profiteer. Each day outlets tender for our business. If they are too high they get less business which will encourage them to be more careful the second time around. It is then up to the user to decide if they want to make use of the information.
Why all the over top rhetoric about this? Must be a sign of the Opposition having nothing in their policy basket that this is what they are trying to make a name for themselves with. Block it and Rudd can simply refer to the Oppositions role in keeping petrol prices high - true or not, it will ring true.
Grocery Choice’s value will be in the data it collects. It is not a “consumer” site per se. It tells people which of the big two wants to chase market share by being the lowest price prize winner.
Will Woolies or Coles want to be known as the consistantly high price winner?
dovif.
Nice regurgitation of the LNP talking points - but you miss the point.
Sue H @ 381 & Boerwar @ 383. Welcome your comments and observations re: kids being neglected. Psst, Boerwar, many people who visit here know I’m actually a woman of a certain age, and the name is a joke from an old (yes, carbon dating myself - probably have to apply for an ETS permit!) Monty Python skit. You might also see the odd post from Dinsdale Pirannha, also from the same skit.
I don’t know where you live, however, there’s some upcoming lectures by Prof. Dorothy Scott, my old boss and Foundation Chair in Child Protection and Family Policy (Adelaide Uni) in Melbourne in September, if you’re interested and can get to them. Let me know if you are and I’ll post the venues, etc..
About the push and pull idea, Boerwar, yes, of course, this applies to a greater or lesser extent, depending on the case. For instance,I’m of the view that if a parent is addicted to whatever it is to the extent they cannot effectively parent the child, remove the child as early as possible and place them somewhere stable. For years in Victoria, till the latest legislation, we’ve seen the courts returning children to circumstances we know, and have heaps of research to show, will just damage them irreparably. It’s why I don’t particularly like the cut off the welfare solution. I must admit I haven’t had a chance to look more closely at what else is being proposed, and am reacting to what is being reported as the highlight bit of the legislation. Will attempt to do so over the weekend.
Ok, Gary Bruce and Other BB Critics…
If Rudd keeps up the enthusiasm like he just demonstrated on The 7.30 Report, I’m prepared to cut him a lot of slack.
It was a neat combination of bureaucratic mumbo-jumbo (i.e. detail) and looking to the future (i.e. vision).
Keep it up Kevvo. That’s what we want to hear.
Grocery choice and fuelwatch, while I think they’re good things, are essentially rinky dink measures that really should have been let die with a shrug.
Though unit pricing is something I seriously want to see happen - is it just me or have the size of chip packets shrunk recently???!
387 BB - it was a good performance (and some good questions from Kerry as well - much better crafteed than the ones the LIbs threw at Rudd during QT today).
But for me, Julia on AM this morning was the star performer of the day.
There you go, Bushfire Bill, and I hope you stayed tuned for John Clarke and Brian Dawe - “Clever Kevin, they didn’t see him coming” piece. Best belly laugh I’ve had for a while. They know what’s going on, that’s for sure.
390 it was a corker.
Grog @ 389, I liked Julia’s taunting of Costello via the publishing company who liked their books to have spine by the author who doesn’t have any!
and at tomorrow night’s dinner, prawns for starters, followed by chicken and winding up with jelly for dessert!
There’s nothing quite like shadenfreude, is there?
Grog, have you had a look at The Piping Shrike’s blog? You may find it interesting, if you haven’t.
Yep Harry - it’s a good one
Bushfire Bill,
You have been sold a pup! Kevin Rudd aims to preside not govern.
The slow learners will take a while to pick it up.
Have an alternative read of Kevin07 , I do not think he has crafted anything actualy What you ar seeing is th reel guy , if one closely looks at history in both Goss Labor Govt and career as a Diplomot there is same consistency of a measured outcomes orientated no rammammtaz person , attends local church , lives in normal home etc , and can be nerdy witty
Reason he got out of strip club bit last year was cause aussies (rightly) believed it was contrary to his personality
It is not in him to give a PK stirring type speech , but it is in him to speak from
th hart as he did in appology speech simply because it was policy driven & so th speech was inspirational because of its subject matter , and not because it cam from an orator
But when actualy looks at what he is not (vs Howard) and what he has already
either changed/put in trains as I listed last nite , he is a reformer As for magnifiect PK and Gough they were exceptions , brilliant orators and with substance but th substance IS contained in there delivery
IF we want all th glitter & beautiful oratory from a Politcan , then thats what USA politcans ar , BUT they hav no substance in there delivery…all fluffy nothings Of course in case of Bush he is neither an orator nor has substance
MSN say Kevin07 is bland , and I say , but he delivers for th people , and thats all that finaly counts , seems voters think that way with Polls
ESJ “been sold a pup” ? I didn’t realise you were Chris Pyne incognito…
Greensborough Growler,
Sorry to be so slow in getting back to you. The higher rates in Nillumbik are the price we pay for being in the Green Wedge with little industry and little subdivision. I’m prepared to pay them.
Kevin Rudd was pretty good on The 7.30 Report. He seemed really normal, if you know what I mean. His attacks on the teacher unions, will, sadly, help him. His intentions re education are very good, and the states will cave in while the teacher unions, contrary to the myths of press are close to powerless, but I fear he is importing dumb ideas from England.
#394 Harry
Agree !
Shananhanahan should pick up on that great narrative - “Cunning Kevin and the 6 states and 2 territories”
Kerry O’Brien had a big smirk on his face on the cross back to him.
401 and I loved the “yes there has been some criticism about a lack of a narrative… thanks Paul…”
Was wondering , th Lord Mayor of Brisbane is th Liberal Party’s most senior elected official in ‘oz’ , who is th Liberal Party’s second most senior elected official in ‘oz’
No Ron he is not a Liberal anymore just your common garden variety Pineapple Party member since the Clive Palmer buyout there are no major Liberal posts anywhere of note.
I seriously doubt that people who oppose fuelwatch have ever owned a car or stopped to buy some petrol in their lives. For goodness sakes, show some imagination.
The price of fuel can vary as much as 25 cents a litre on any given day. You are basically playing two-up every time you stop to put petrol in the car. With fuelwatch, you won’t even have to check the prices on the net. The fact that prices will be displayed will create greater cosistency and competition among retailers.
Grocery Watch is a completely different ball game. However, I am sure that in the future customers will be able to instantly and efficiently obtain prices on the net as if you are walking down the supermarket isles yourself. At least we will all know that the idea originated from the Rudd government, and we will all know forever, opposed by the most useless opposition led by Brenda Nelson of all time.
I hate that word “narrative”.
LOL - Thanks Mr Rudd for Fuelwatch your the best!!! I love all the Labor hacks who talk like Kevin Rudd is the tsar looking out for his people from Moscow.
There is afterall a reason they called the show “Hollowmen”.
Mmm, what’s this I see in the water? A fishing line. Nah, I think I’ll give that one a miss.
Ahhh poor ESJ, doesn’t realise that the recent Hollowmen episodes were written under one J. Howard lol
I was able to catch the back half of QT today. I started watching when Tanner was answering a question, and it was so noticeable that Gillard and Bishop were having serious words at each other across the chamber.
There was Julia shaking her head with a great big gorgeous smile on her face. Julie B looked so frustrated LOL I thought she was about to have some kind of inner body experience.
If fuelwatch is not introduced the fuel companies should be stopped from obtaining or accessing the prices of other sellers in the market
has th new Q’ld ‘Liberal Party’ that was to be formed with some MP’s (subsequent to new Pineapple Party’s formation) seen lite of day Steve (can not find much news of it)
You believe what you need to believe Dario if it makes you feel better.
LOL GB,
Give me some more of those vintage GB quotes to support GB arguments.
Instead of “I think therefore I am” we have “I posted before therefore I am correct ” in your case.
dave
#412
“If fuelwatch is not introduced the fuel companies should be stopped from obtaining or accessing the prices of other sellers in the market”
Believe its a privately owned site , where Retailers freely provide there prices , not sure it can be closed , of course they do it to massage prices against consumers and not to give consumers th lowest price
One of great advantages of FuelWatch is rerquirement to posts prices 24 hours in advance , and I do not accept arguments FuelWatch in WA or anywhere does not depress prices , to me its commonsense it would
So any Stats that allege otherwise my reaction is you can make figures give any answer you like , but you can not beat is peoples sense of what is realistic and what is a bullsh.t figures report conclusion So am all for FuelWatch whatever its imperfections if any
qanda is raising some curlies re zion and its nuke arsenal
quiet enlightening
The WA site is run by the Department of Consumer and Employment Protection, which is a State Govt site, while fuelwatch.com.au is a private site and is NOT affiliated to the WA scheme.
sorry rest of post went into space
i was going to say that this show is going from strength to strength and if anything is an example of what auntie should be promoting-open and frank discussion
411 Centre - Bishop is not coping well with opposition. She and Hockey I think are the one’s struggling with it the most.
All this Yank flag waving is too much for this old aussie sheila to stomach,
at least our Kev writes his own speeches, boring maybe, but what you see is what you get, straight from the horses mouth, and that’ll do me.
Those ‘effin’ nausiating loud mouth posing egotistical limelight whore septics with their Hollywood style bullshit extravaganzas make me wanna puke. full of piss and wind the lot of ‘em.
“while fuelwatch.com.au is a private site and is NOT affiliated to the WA scheme”
That is site would think can not be closed by Govt action as its for petrol retailers ‘benefit’
Absolutely Vera !
vera @ 421. Perhaps you could have a word with Bushfire Bil?
421 vera - I wish you wouldn’t pull your punches and say what you really think. Well put though.
Grog @ 420,They’re all struggling with it. Perhaps Julie Bishop and Joe Hockey (lordy, how it must gall him that his supposed friend, whom he described as being unready to by PM, is) do struggle the most, but I’d be betting Peter Costello must be writhing in unfulfilled narcissitic angst.