The Australian reports that Labor’s lead in this fortnight’s Newspoll is down slightly from 57-43 to 56-44. Kevin Rudd is down three points as preferred leader to 65 per cent while Brendan Nelson is up two to 14 per cent.
The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change in Labor’s long-standing 58-42 lead. Also featured is a national-level question on state voting intention which suggests collective primary vote support for the state Labor governments is 7 per cent lower than for federal Labor (40 per cent compared with 47 per cent), although Coalition support is only 3 per cent higher (38 per cent compared with 35 per cent). Further questions involve federal Labor’s performance on various individual issues, and attitudes to the balance of power in the Senate.
745 Comments
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GG
when you gt a chance hav a look at #171 , but may neeed #213 to access it , as my computer is giving me some payback somehow
Ron 246
August 27th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
In only 8 months , this is a diferent Country & sometimes its easy for some to forget what was , W/Choices , Haneef , Hicks , Iraq war , discrimatory GST , no appology , worse little ‘care’ , tax cuts for th rich , kids overboard , no Kyoto , etc s etc s , now green paper on CC ETS , roll out start National sppeedy broadband , internet & panels in schools commenced , 13.9 +further 3.7 billion Water program , price watchs , assault on indigenous health and welfare , bigest tax review in 50 years commenced , but in a democracy you do not get a revolution , nor want one
Ron – good try.
W/Choices – ACTU disagrees with you on this.
apology, Kyoto, assault on indigenous health and welfare – where’s the money ron?
Water program – its a Potemkin village job, 400m is chickenfeed investment for show
green paper this, green paper there
Nothing’s happening, what did these people actually do in 12 years in opposition other than knife each other? Doesnt seem there is anything they really want to do
Grog
is that 12 a minute dissatisfation with Brenda possible to go to infinity , was thinking whether Horatio ended up being th last one standing being dissatisfied with himself
ESJ,
Therefore, why the constant whinge?
Agree that Rudd and Co have been constrained so far. However, exciting reform times on the horizon.
MRB
Climate Change
Computers in Schools
Broadband roll out.
It’s happening all around. Just open your eyes and support a Government that is reformist, but taking the electorate with them.
I looked up the SA Education policy on truancy and the police already have the power to fine parents of truants. I assume this is the case in the other states. A fine is much the same as cutting welfare benefits so why was there the need for this added policy?
There is another aspect that looks suspiciously like dumping on welfare families. There have been lots of arguments about why truancy occurs. We seem to all be accepting that truancy only occurs in families on welfare. This cannot be the case. Why doesn’t Labors policy spell out what they plan to do to parents with truant kids who aren’t on welfare?
I thought it is very apt that King Cross is a part of Wentworth where its sitting member Malcolm Turnbull was doing a “deep throat” (according to 4corners last Monday) on his former friend Kerry “Goanna” Packer. Just as well that it wasn’t done at the Pink Pussycat. Otherwise, it would have been a very deep “deep throat”.
Ron – with 13,778,553 people currently on the electoral roll and Newspoll having 6.6 million of those people being dissatisfied with the Nightwatchman, he could be around for a fair while yet losing 12 people a minute before only the true die hard ALP supporters are left telling Newspoll that they love Brendan
253 Ron, I have faith that Nelson will never be dissatisfied with himself – given his penchant for loving the sad stories, I’d say the lower his approval rating goes, the more happy he gets with himself.
(He probably spends idle moments dreaming about buying a Tarago and lining up for petrol on Tuesday nights… maybe throwing a wheelchair in the back just in case)
Ron, GG, Finns
McCain up 46-44 in the latest Gallup during the Dems convention. Looks like more tears in November for the Dems.
Possum,
This has been Nelson’s problem all year. Liberal supporters actually prefer Rudd to him.
This is why he can’t last as leader.
There is an old saying that applies to the Libs if they want to get back to Government.
“I would not be starting from here”.
ESJ,
Hillary, 2012.
259 ESJ, I’m inclined to agree with you on that one…a long ways to go, but Obama needs a bump from this week…momentum has been lost a bit.
ESJ, she looked, sounded and performed sensationally, like a truly POTUS candidate. Let see how Obama performs on Thursday. If the recent poll numbers and commentaries are to be believed, the Dems have picked the wrong candidate.
GG and the problem is they need to find someone whom ALPs supporters prefer to Rudd.
Turnbull? For a while maybe until they get to know him… anyone else? I’m struggling to think of one.
Maybe they could see if Julia wants to swap parties. If they offered Tanner the treasury maybe he would come across with her.
Finns The Hopemaster even had the gall to set up a faux Rose Garden stage in the stadium.
Come November “plouffe” and “axelrod” will be the names the democrats dare not speak.
Grog
“He probably spends idle moments dreaming…”
As you ar aware Turnbull supporters say Brenda dreams daily in front of a mirror sayng who I better than me , who would Newspoll poll , th mirror answer or Brenda’s…within MOE
I beleive th Liberals ar frozen between Brenda who they know is no good and his toffyiness who they ar scared may be better
ESJ @ 249
Oh. I was getting really curious there for a while. I thought Ruddy must have done a Teddy. ‘Who was his Wallace?’ I was thinking.
I would give it a while yet, but I agree with you insofar as the Rudd Government having some fairly conservative inclinations.
When you structure the whole shebang to be a competition for the centre in a two horse race, that is what you tend to get.
Rudd/Gillard will do some important things that the libnats would never do, but I suspect it will never stray very far from the middle ground.
Rudd and his team are all about spin and little action. A 21 Billion surplus, a water policy which practically says the lower Murray lakes can die and an economy going nowhere.
This country has a problem with creating ideas and vision, the concern is the other side has ideas either and is generally the same or if anything slightly worse.
Meant Nelson has no ideas either.
Marky Marky hs no ideas either.
marky marky @ 269
That is cruel. Nelson has plenty of ideas. It is just that they are above his station.
Julia on LL at the moment. Anyone know who the presenter is?
Grog,
The first step is surely to find someone you can get behind?
“find someone you can get behind”
All the better to stab them in the back?
Think there levels of dislike between Brenda and his toffyiness were not only evident in this weeks 4 corners program but polls themselves Assume no opposition leader in ‘oz’ history State or Federal has held on to his position to fight an electon (assuming that) , so Liberals do know they hav to change
There problem seems that despite polls showing his toffyiness ‘more electable’ & surprisingly imprtantly equal with Cossie with Labor voters that dislike is strong
wondr if part is tffoyiness is new boy on blok since only 2003 and has leepfrogged all th 12 rear Howard Govt guys & gals , and he is small ‘L’ to them as well vs there mentor th rodent
Yep lets introduce a truancy program which blackmails minority groups into making sure their kids go to school, a program not about funding programs in schools to make kids to want to be at school. Populist nonsense which will go down well amongst right wing Sydney shock jocks. A policy which takes the easy road. No political will at all.
GG more of the same from you no doubt in regards to policy. The same old economic rationalist bulldust which is ruining this country and creating massive disparities throughout the world.
How dumb is LL to compare Hilary spekaing at the convention with Rudd at the press club – apples with very over-ripe oranges??
How about comparing her with his election launch address to get some equality? (not that I’m suggesting Rudd is a great public speaker)
Ron,
How about the Blues. 8-10 wins as predicted with another chance on Saturday.
Great effort from a young team on the rise.
Get on board the Carlton express for 2009. Probable top 4 and Premiership chance.
Marky,
Put your racist KKK mask on.
I’ve come to the conclusion that Rudd will never satisfy the left of the party, as we have seen here but he will be in power for quite awhile. The left would have him out of power next election if they had their way.
Judge Growler at 260: “I would not be starting from here”
It’s pretty funny.
The Libs have to careful on this though – there was a group of affluent Libs (make up about 1.5%-2% of the electoral role) that swung back to the Coalition in the last 3 weeks of the campaign, and they have, for all intents and purposes apparently moved back to Rudd over the first 6 months of this year.
The problem for the Libs is making sure they come back.
In many respects Nelson is for the Libs like Crean was for the ALP, except Crean had a comparatively decent TPP score by sponging prefs off the Greens. It took BOTH Latham and Rudd to fix the ALP primary from the dismal state that Crean left it in (and if anyone wants to argue about Latham, give me a yell and I’ll show you the data, it goes against the popular narrative a fair bit here).
Leaders can shift demographic groups semi-permanently – but what happens if Turnbull turns out to be (as I think I’ve said here before) a Mark Latham in a Fioravanti suit, but without the suburban mum bounce and the demographic drawback facility?
The Libs need to be careful because Nelson (and not only Nelson, but the entire shadow cabinet) are in danger of FUBARing accountable government for a few terms by pretending that this veneer of credibility they have is actually real. It wont be real until they have real leadership – and by real leadership I mean someone that the public doesn’t think is a complete cockspank. But by the time they pull their heads out, they could have whistled two terms up the wall simply because of the effects of electoral hysteresis that occurs with the primary vote of a party under poor leadership.
272 Grog – Leigh Sales. Rudd isn’t a great salesman but hell neither was Howard FFS.
GG you have not changed. The same old silly personal attacks upon people. You never seem to have anything to say which is credible or is intelligent. Go back to the Banyule council mob.
Ron @ 275
I would have to say I used to think Turnbull was the obvious choice. Now I am not so sure.
Turnbull would have been opposition leader except that in the immediate aftermath of the election he started making public policy statements. There were two things about this: (a) they were not the result of consultation, and (b) they were policies with which important elements of the libs disagreed. Despite that, he still got to within 3 votes.
Now, when they have all had an opportunity to study him a bit more carefully:
He was successful on the Wright case.
HIH/FAI, well…let’s just say, sub judice
The republic failure.
The fairfax failure thinggie including, as a subplot, ratting on a goanna – I mean to say, how Australian is that?
Sort of 3/4 on the biggies have not exactly panned out. His personal failings have also been extensively noised abroad.
If the Messiah is not the Messiah, despite Shanahan’s best efforts, then can Turnbull really be the No 2 Messiah? It just has to be quite questionable.
My view is that they should simply head for the next generation.
Possum,
Don’t agree with the analysis. However, what Rudd has done is make the transition a continuum. ESJ is right to a certain extent. What Rudd has done is smooth the change of government so most people don’t even know it has happened.
A triumph of Australian democracy.
The same Lateline whom made allegations about pedophile being rife in aboriginal communities. Currently their are have been less than five cases, and Lateline well this issue has long gone. No doubt helping Howards policy of intervention and a Land rights grab.
All of a sudden Rudd should be giving showy speeches, inspirational speeches, narratives. What is all of this BS all about? Let him present it the way he knows best. People aren’t exactly clamouring for a change of style or asking for a definitive message. They just want him to get on with it.
Possum @ 281
Please, what does ‘FUBARing’ mean?
Marky Marky @ 276
There were some very good posts by Harry Snapper Organs on the this topic further up the string, and which you may have missed.
marky,
You are a dreay little nobody who professes support for Labor but always criticises. Never, is there a positive.
From the heart of my bottom, please one day, before you shred your mortal coil, say something positive about your Labor Government.
282 GB, ta, haven’t been watching LL for a while I forgot who she was.
The main reason I don’t think Turnbull will be the man for the Libs, is by the time the republican referendum rolled around even I was thinking of voting no just because he was so insufferable.
Enemy Marsupial
“there was a group of affluent Libs (make up about 1.5%-2% of the electoral role) that swung back to the Coalition in the last 3 weeks of the campaign”
Beleive instead 3 of 4 Polls to Sat before electon were big Labor leads , think swing was in last week & reflected in last week , th move back was widespread except Q’ld so alot of non affluent Libs must hav moved in other electorates , think many reasons including a more focused attack on voters of financial effect of a Government change hitting peoplesthoughts of there pockets (a tsanami)rather than th weak Liberal more general approach , thats 4 disagreements Enemy Marsupial for us
GG my final comment tonight, i could say the same about you but in reverse.
Yes immigration policy they have been very good here and their policy on medicare rebates is also good.
Luxury cars tax is also good policy with some adustments needed.
Climate change policy although recognising it they i am afraid are doing little.
Emissions trading has been a failure in Europe and do not understand why we need a masive surplus. How about issuing bonds and invest in solar energy, i bet they super funds would buy them very quickly. But i am afraid we have a government stuck in the mud for ideas and innovative initiatives.
Marky,
Don’t let the door hit you on the arse on the way out.
Exactly Bruce. It’s only the MSM who are pleading for this ridiculous ‘narrative’ rubbish. The people couldn’t give a damn. They just want Rudd to put his head down, let him do his job and then assess his performance in 3 years.
Grog
“by the time the republican referendum rolled around even I was thinking of voting no just because he was so insufferable.”
me to Grog , those 4 corners adds of toffyines spitting dummy would be reely damaging in an electon , Liberals need to llokk to ”left’ field to stabilise like Julia or even toughen up Joe Hockey , even if interim till 2010
exactly exactly Dario , they’re etting on with lives at moment ..reasonably content , & polls show i think
268
marky marky Says:
Rudd and his team are all about spin and little action. A 21 Billion surplus, a water policy which practically says the lower Murray lakes can die…
Prithee, from whence magically cometh this water to slake said parched lands?
Greeny at 285, I agree with what your saying there – Rudd has been, deliberately, a seamless transition. And it’s a clever political approach.
But I think some demographics at the moment aren’t actually about Rudd, anymore than the so called “Howard battlers” were about Howard between 1996 and 1998. BEtween 96 and 98 they were all about whatever else was on the table (or rather the absence of it) in that period, and in many respects I think the same applies to Rudd – except this time the people Rudd has brought on board that are at risk aren’t the people that won him the election per ce (although there’s certainly a chunk of that in there), but are the people he’s gathered since his election win.
And it’s with those post-Rudd-election converts that the Liberal Party is in danger over.
Boerwar at 288
F*cked Up Beyond All Recognition
GG,
Are you really stuck in the City Banyule? Some lucky Greensborough residents get to live in the Shire of Nillumbik, the most livable municipality in the country.
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