With the Olympics out of the way and less than a fortnight to go until polling day, the Western Australian election campaign is on in earnest. The official Liberal campaign launch was held on Sunday – footage of Colin Barnett’s speech can be viewed here, but it doesn’t convey the highly Americanised razzamatazz that dominated the vision on the television news. The Liberals finally have their first television ads in business: this remarkably drab positive effort, and a rather more innovative negative one. There have also been two further additions to the party’s roster of radio advertising, both dealing with law and order, making for six negative ads out of six. Labor’s campaign has gotten equally grim after a sunny start.
On Monday night came the low-rating televised leaders debate, hosted by Channel Nine, in which 30 of the 50 audience members drove the worm and delivered a verdict of 17-13 in favour of Alan Carpenter. The worm tracked fairly evenly, favouring Barnett for the first half of the debate and Carpenter for the second. Carpenter got good responses on “left” issues including privatisation, GM food bans and uranium mining, and when he pointed out he had called on the Salaries Tribunal not to increase MPs’ pay. He also drew blood when criticising the Liberals’ lack of women candidates, and when saying they had done “nothing to prepare themselves for government”. However, he did best of all when responding to moderator Dixie Marshall’s silly question about the contenders’ greatest moral failings with a joke about the Fremantle Dockers, and proclaiming his love for Western Australia. Barnett did well invoking the shadow of Brian Burke and WA Inc, but Carpenter also succeeded in drawing Noel Crichton-Browne into the issue, and Barnett appeared to indulge in an impromptu strengthening of his position on banning cabinet members from dealing with him. Other good responses for Barnett related to housing, education and teachers’ pay, but the worm headed south when Troy Buswell was raised. Barnett did notably less well than Carpenter responding to Marshall’s concluding question.
Last week’s expectations management exercise by Labor has succeeded in talking down the Centrebet odds on a Liberal win from $4.25 to $3.50, but one news outlet that has loudly refused to play along is The West Australian. On Saturday, the paper reported that notwithstanding reports of five marginal seats showing a 7 per cent swing to the Liberals, “Labor insiders also said the polling indicated the swing would be reduced to a situation where Labor would be returned to government but would lose some seats”. The paper’s Robert Taylor had this to say:
With nothing apparently working, Labor got desperate towards the end of the week, claiming that its own polling showed the Liberals would win the election if it were held this weekend. That’s cynical. What Labor didn’t say was that although close, the polling still suggests the Government would be returned by a reduced majority and with two weeks to go, nightly tracking polls show the swing to the Liberals slowing not gathering pace.
The West sounds confident enough that we can probably infer Labor’s tracking poll paints a similar picture to last fortnight’s Westpoll and Newspoll, perhaps slightly worse than the latter.
UPDATE (28/8/08): Robert Taylor reports: “Nightly tracking polls conducted by both parties show the swing to the Liberals is down to around two per cent, half of what they need to claim government. The Liberals are tracking voters in eight marginal seats, Labor is polling in five But both see the same trend, and it’s a win to Labor … Labor sources said they expected losses to be contained to three or four seats, two of which, Darling Range and Bunbury, are held by Liberal incumbents anyway because of the one vote, one value redistribution. And Labor still has not given up on Albany and Geraldton, held by incumbent Government MPs Peter Watson and Shane Hill. Albany is said to have swung towards the Government in recent days. Both sides believe the Liberals have something of a stranglehold on Kingsley, held by Labor’s Judy Hughes. Ocean Reef, Collie-Preston and Riverton remain in play.
However, the momentum might yet continue to build: the big business “500 Club” has announced it will donate $400,000 to the party’s marginal seats campaign, bridging what was reportedly a massive gap between the parties’ war chests.
Now for an overview of the situation in those marginals, bearing in mind that a net loss of nine seats will cost Labor its majority and most likely produce a minority Liberal government. Let’s start with the seats ABC state political editor Peter Kennedy might have had in mind when he mused on last night’s television news: “Could it be that sitting Labor members have opted for the safer ends of their electorates and left the marginal seats for rookies?”.
Ocean Reef (Labor 1.6%): Labor’s members for Mindarie and Joondalup, John Quigley and Tony O’Gorman, would have done their party a very good turn if they had abandoned their existing seats in the crucial outer northern suburbs to tackle this less attractive new prospect. The seat has instead emerged as a contest between two newcomers, both aged 28: Labor’s Louise Durack, a social worker and organisational officer with the locally based Women’s Healthworks who was hand-picked by Alan Carpenter, and Liberal candidate Albert Jacob, a Joondalup councillor. Labor sources said they were “concerned” about the seat on the basis of marginal seat polling.
Mount Lawley (Labor 5.8%): Nearly two-thirds of the voters in this new seat come from abolished Yokine: perhaps Labor would have done well to keep its member Bob Kucera on board rather than dump him for preselection, leading him to quit the party and initially threaten to run as an independent (he has instead decided to retire). The seat will instead be contested for Labor by one of the highest-profile of Alan Carpenter’s hand-picked candidates, Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and more recently director of former Labor MP John Halden’s lobbying firm Halden Burns. The Liberal candidate is Perth deputy lord mayor Michael Sutherland.
Jandakot (Labor 3.6%): The bulk of this new southern suburbs seat comes from the Liberal-held seats of Murdoch (which has been succeeded by Bateman, to be contested by Christian Porter) and Serpentine-Jarrahdale (whose Liberal member Tony Simpson will contest the radically redrawn Darling Range). Labor’s strength comes from smaller areas in the west of the electorate which have been acquired from the very safe seats of Cockburn and Willagee, both of which have maintained their identity. The member for the former is Energy Minister Fran Logan, who seems an unlikely vote-winner – he has been dubbed the “invisible man” of the campaign due to Labor’s unwillingness to bring him along to such events as yesterday’s wind power photo op in Albany. The member for the latter is Alan Carpenter. Should the Premier have boldly led by example, John Howard-style?
The following are must-wins for the Liberals in the metropolitan area:
Kingsley (Labor 0.0%): The northern suburbs seat of Kingsley was Labor’s only gain of the 2005 election, and had never been held by the party previously. It might be thought that Judy Hughes’s win for Labor was a one-off influenced by the fact that Liberal candidate Colin Edwardes was the husband of outgoing Liberal member Cheryl Edwardes, and also by the candidacy of Marie Evans (whose husband Richard Evans was member for the corresponding federal seat of Cowan from 1996 to 1998) under the “Community 1st” banner, reflecting local divisions in the Liberal Party. Hughes also suffered from the redistribution, which wiped out her 0.8 per cent margin by moving the electorate’s lowest-income suburb of Warwick into the safe Labor seat of Girrawheen. As part of last week’s campaign to dampen expectations, Labor claimed it had given up on the seat.
Riverton (Labor 2.1%): Labor member Tony McRae won the seat from Court government Workplace Relations Minister Graham Kierath in 2001 and survived an avalanche of bad press from The West Australian in the final days of the 2005 campaign, which memorably gave Colin Barnett’s costings debacle second billing to the news that Labor was running a dummy candidate. McRae suffered a more substantial setback during the current term when he was sacked as Environment Minister over dealings with Brian Burke’s lobbying colleague Julian Grill. The Liberal candidate is Mike Nahan, American-accented former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs. Expect to hear a lot from Labor in the coming week about yesterday’s call from the IPA for privatisation of electricity generation and passenger rail networks. A Westpoll survey of 400 voters conducted during the first week of the campaign had the Liberals leading 51-49.
Swan Hills (Labor 3.6%): Labor’s outgoing 31-year-old member Jaye Radisich reportedly has ambitions for a future career in federal politics, but she might have lost a few friends in the party through her determination to abandon this crucial marginal seat in favour of its safe-as-houses neighbour West Swan. Alan Carpenter was determined that West Swan should go to his chief-of-staff Rita Saffioti, and Radisich quit rather than stay put. The seat will be contested for Labor by upper house MP Graham Giffard, who loomed as a potential loser in the game of musical chairs resulting from the reduction of North Metropolitan region from seven members to six. The Liberal candidate is Swan City councillor Frank Alban. Labor says its internal polling has it feeling “concerned” about the seat.
Now the must-win non-metropolitan seats:
Collie-Preston (Labor 0.9%): Collie-Preston merges Labor-held Collie-Wellington with Liberal-held Capel, and has thus emerged as a head-to-head contest between respective sitting members Mick Murray and Steve Thomas. As the map on my electorate page demonstrates, it is strikingly polarised between the intensively Labor-voting coal-mining town of Collie and the smaller town of Allanson to the west, and the strongly conservative agricultural shires of Capel, Dardanup and Donnybrook-Balingup. A former president of the Collie Combined Coalmining Unions Council, Mick Murray was Labor’s best performing candidate at the 2005 election, picking up a 6.7 per cent swing in Collie-Wellington after gaining its predecessor seat of Collie in 2001. Analysis of booth results reveals that this swing was overwhelmingly concentrated in Collie itself, whose five booths swung to Murray by 12.6 per cent compared with 3.9 per cent elsewhere. It can thus be inferred that the Labor margin is boosted by Murray’s popularity with a very particular constituency that has no representation in those areas that were formerly in Capel, where Steve Thomas can instead expect a sophomore surge following his entry to parliament in 2005.
North West (Labor 3.1%): Previously known as North West Coastal, this seat now extends inland to take in the mining towns of Meekatharra and Cue along with the Murchison pastoral area, cutting the margin from 3.7 per cent to 3.1 per cent. However, of more concern to Labor is the departure of sitting member Fred Riebeling, who has been demonstrating his vote-winning ways ever since he won the Ashburton by-election in the dying days of the Lawrence government in 1992. Worse still, the Liberal candidate is Rod Sweetman, who represented the area as member for Ningaloo from 1996 until 2005, when the abolition of his seat had him hunting unsuccessfully for opportunities in Perth. Labor’s candidate is Vince Catania, who has been a member for the corresponding upper house region of Mining and Pastoral since the 2005 election, at which time he was reckoned to be an inner-city blow-in.
The following have been sent from one side of the pendulum to the other by the redistribution:
Darling Range (Labor 0.8%): This seat derives just 15 per cent of its voters from the existing seat of Darling Range, the real successor to which is Kalamunda, which will be contested by Darling Range MP John Day (it has a notional Liberal margin of 0.2 per cent, but the early campaign Westpoll gave John Day a 54-46 lead). The new Darling Range takes half its voters from abolished Serpentine-Jarrahdale, and will accordingly be contested for the Liberals by its sitting member Tony Simpson. Labor’s candidate is Lisa Griffiths, described by the local Comment News as “the only woman in a group of six scientists in WA specialising in electron microscopy”.
Bunbury (Labor 0.9%): It was long anticipated that Bunbury mayor John Castrilli would gain this seat for the Liberals at the 2005 election, but he ended up winning by just 103 votes. Being slightly bigger than the other main regional cities, not all of Bunbury was accommodated by the electorate under the old boundaries, the Labor-voting southern suburbs of Withers and Usher being in abolished Capel. The absorption of those areas has given Labor a 1.5 per cent boost, but the Liberals are reportedly very confident Castrilli should be able to make up the difference. Labor has nominated Peter MacFarlane, director of the Margaret River Regional Wine Centre and candidate for Forrest at last year’s federal election.
Albany (Liberal 2.3%): The other two regional city seats have gone the other way from Bunbury because they have had to make up the numbers from surrounding rural seats. In both cases this meant territory where Labor had played dead to finish behind the Nationals, ensuring they defeated the Liberals on their preferences. Labor thus has a better chance of retaining the seats than the notional margins suggest, as indicated by Alan Carpenter’s visit yesterday to spruik renewable energy (which was reported thus on the front page of today’s West Australian). For their part, the Liberals are promising to build a natural gas pipeline between Bunbury and Albany under a public-private partnership. Labor’s sitting member Peter Watson faces sports physiotherapist Andrew Partington for a second successive election.
Geraldton (Liberal 3.5%): A similar story to Albany, Geraldton was won by Labor’s Shane Hill in 2001 and has moved to the Liberal column after expanding into rural territory from the abolished Nationals seat of Greenough. The Liberal candidate is local farmer Ian Blayney.
Roughies:
Joondalup (Labor 3.6%): Changes of government in 1983, 1993 and 2001 all involved mass transfers of seats in Perth’s volatile northern suburbs mortgage belt, with Tony O’Gorman gaining Joondalup for Labor on the latter occasion. The Liberals would surely be hoping to gain this seat if they wish for a repeat in 2008, but their candidate Milly Zuvela has a remarkably low profile, notwithstanding a stint on Wanneroo City Council late last decade.
Forrestfield (Labor 4.5%): A new seat with no sitting member, so the margin might flatter Labor, who have nominated Andrew Waddell, a former official with the Centre faction Transport Workers Union who has worked since 1999 with the Western Australian Industrial Relations Commission. Here too the Liberals have nominated a candidate without much of a profile, school deputy principal Nathan Morton.
Southern River (Labor 5.1%): This electorate has been substantially redrawn, the existing seat providing it with only 56 per cent of its voters (the rest come from abolished Serpentine-Jarrahdale), so perhaps sitting member Paul Andrews is not as secure as his margin makes him appear. The Liberal candidate is the Reverend Peter Abetz, pastor of the Christian Reformed Church of Willetton and brother of Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz.
Kimberley (Labor 6.3%): I was tempted to put the 5.2 per cent Liberal swing at the 2005 election down to the one-off of Colin Barnett’s canal proposal exciting local hopes of job creation (it was first won for the Liberals in the late sixties due to the local popularity of the Ord River scheme boondoggle). However, a reader has suggested the snap election announcement has left Aboriginal voters in newly acquired Halls Creek and surrounding communities off the rolls, making the seat potentially of interest.
Kalgoorlie (Liberal 7.2%): A very rough roughie maybe, but worth a mention due to the departure of Matt Birney who won the seat for the Liberals for the first time in 2001 and picked up a 7.5 per cent swing against the trend of the 2005 election. The Liberals have nominated 27-year-old pastoralist Nat James, said to have been a surprise preselection winner over Kalgoorlie-Boulder Chamber of Commerce president Guy Brownlee; Labor’s Mathew Cuomo has rather more of a profile as a local lawyer. The race is further complicated by the entry of John Bowler, the Labor-turned-independent member for abolished Murchison-Eyre who remains popular locally despite being sacked as a cabinet minister in 2007 over dealings with Brian Burke and Julian Grill (the latter of whom preceded him as member for Murchison-Eyre). Local observers also aren’t writing off Nationals candidate Tony Crook.
265 Comments
That green is really green.
Your bolded margin for North West is wrong.
Where might Radisich be headed? Her state seat overlaps with Pearce - which would be a brave battle. And there wouldn’t appear to be a spot available in the Senate.
Next door Cowan perhaps? Or maybe the easier picking of Swan.
Both corrected. I’m still making changes to the entry - my habit is to publish first and ask questions later, but you two have been too quick for me.
The joys of blogging when your readership is the sum total of human knowledge
Anywhere but Pearce, as apparently she was pretty shaken by the rudeness of voters in the wheatbelt parts of the seat during the last federal election when campaigning for Christopher Myson.
Another fixup: in North West, the Liberal is Rod Sweetman (not Ron), and he was member for Ningaloo (not Burrup).
William, he’s actually a School Principal.
William,
Lol.
Cheers
Deputy principal I heard, Frank. I’ve promoted him and fixed the North West errors.
This poster might be a bit late if she intends to vote on the 7th
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24250445-5017005,00.html
While you are correcting factual details Nathan Morton is neither local (lives in Lesmurdie) nor does he work locally (he is from Cecil Andrews High which is not in Forrestfield). His only claim to fame is that he is related to Helen Morton from the Upper House.
Will be fun on the night after one washes off the sunscreen from standing at the booth and has endured counting. I will need an AM radio with headphones wont I.
Depends where you are - most capaign functions will have a large video screen to watch Kerry & Antony, and if you’re in a marginal seat, you might get your mug on TV during a live cross like I did in 2005
While you are correcting factual details Nathan Morton is neither local (lives in Lesmurdie) nor does he work locally (he is from Cecil Andrews High which is not in Forrestfield). His only claim to fame is that he is related to Helen Morton from the Upper House.
But is he related to the recently appointed WA LIberal Party Director Ben Morton ?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/23/2283431.htm
Top bit of front page of 2mws west///
“Froget talk of a tight race - labor’s home, says wa’s two best political commentators”
Paul Murray “The Liberals probably lost the election around lunch on Tuesday, when they failed to deliver tax cuts that seized on the political initiative and the public’s imagination”
Rob Taylor “Nightly tracking polls conducted by parties show the swing to the Liberals is down to around 2%m half of what they need to claim government”
The West features a Robert Taylor piece headed “Carpenter as good as home as early swing to the Liberals stalls”:
Rob Taylors article.. highlights
“Carpenter as good as home as early swing to the Liberals stalls”
“… the swing to the liberals that was evident at the start of the election campaign two weeks ago has stalled and voters are drifting back to the government, making a Labor victory at the September 6 election a near certainty.”
Since leaders debate “numbers have firmed considerably for Labor”
“Labor sources said they expected losses to be contained to three or four seats, two of which, Darling Range and Bunbury, are held by Liberal incumbents anyway”.
Labor still hoping for Albany and Geraldton. “Albany is said to have swung to the government in recent days”
Both sides believe Kingsley will almost certainly go Liberal.
Ocean Reef, Collie-Preston and Riverton remain in play.
‘Labor research shows that so far voters believe it advertising has been more effective”
Elsewhere, Taylor says “John Bowler has every chance of picking up the seat of Kalgoorlie from the Liberals while another former Labor ‘rising star’, John D’Orazio, has a slim hope of upsetting the ALP’s Reece Whitby.”
Hmm, I think this is a rerun of 2005 minus the Canal, but replace it with Uranium Mining. I know all about Chickens Hatching etc, but it does warm the cockles a bit and is a good omen for Sunday’s Campaign Launch at a city location opposite Esplanade Train Station
And yes I’ll be there
I wonder if John is counting on the Ethnic vote going his way ? Though he may have made enemies due to the Spagnolo business.
Somehow I don’t think the Libs Public Transport ads will work, considering Richard Court’s record re closing the Fremantle Line, and the privatisation of Busses, as well as closing the Midland Workshops.
I notice this was also the case in 2005 with the Libs in front until the Leaders debate, and then it drifted back to Gallop. I think the more people hear Barnett ramble on, the less appealing he is and it reminds voters why they didn’t vote for him last time.
Frank, the Freo line was Charles Court, not the idiot son.
How are the Liberals playing public transport? Promising to rip up the Mandurah line and turn it into a busway if elected?
Taylor reckons McGinty, Kobelke, Ripper, MacTiernan and Roberts “should move aside to make way for the incoming talant” as “they have had eight years to make their mark and none of them is on the way to the top job”. Tips Michelle Roberts, Fran Logan, David Templeman and perhaps also Margaret Quirk for the chop.
whoops mea culpa, but the idiot son did scrap passenger service assistants and introduced those useless Chubb guards thanks to a beatup over some girls getting their jeans stolen off railway property.
McGinty and Ripper I’d expect because the West have had it in for them since Day 1 and also Michelle Roberts. Logan might get a Junior Ministry of some sort, Margaret Quirk has been okay. I reckon the biggest casualty will be Mark McGowan from education, which might go to Michelle Roberts as she is a former Italian Teacher.
And you think that trumps the eclipse of the New Right?
Well with Jaye and D’Orazio out of the equation the New Right is all but dead
Hence the pigs-might-fly status of Roberts replacing McGowan.
Did Robert Taylor mention Swan Hills ? As I hear Graham Giffard sent out two flyers, one with achievents in the Hills with a Map, and a flyer on Water Rebates, which were sent to people in Parkerville yesterday.
Not a word.
Well it was only a theory - How many other Chalkies are there besides Ravlich & Ripper ?
I have heard that Alannah may be moving to State Development or something similar.
She does seem quite committed to her current portfolio however, especially since she is heading the taskforce that will map out Perths public transport needs over the next 20 years.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they create a super ministry with Planning & Infrastructure and hive off to a junior Minister the nuts and bolts of Transport like Taxis and the day to day operation of public transport.
Oh and Reece Whitby and Rita Saffioti win Morley & West Swan respectively, as well as Graham Giffard in Swan Hills, expect them to be in the Ministry
that should read IF
but both being fairly safe seats, the ALP should retain both, but Morley may produce an upset.
“Margaret Quirk has been ok”? Even as a dyed in the wool Labor supporter I would have to say she is the most un-ok parliamentarian on either side. Her behaviour over the issue of the female drug dealer jailed in Thailand was in my view disgusting and dispicable.
And I hope it comes back to bite her on the folds of her voluminous buttocks.
That may be true, but totally understandable in light of trying to minimise any backlash from the Howard Sattler types.
Dehumanising people for opportunisic personal gain and aggrandisement is never forgiveable under any circumstances Frank, sorry.
I totally agree, but can you imagine the outcry if she agreed in the first instance. With the Justice System it’s damned if you do, damned if you don’t - especially with our redneck media.
Frank, no matter what the greater good may be, people of principle should not descend to the level of the Sattlers and Howards of this world to gain political advantage, especially when the welfare of another human being is at stake.
To do so displays a fatal character flaw which in my view precludes them from any entitlement to hold high office.
The end never justifies the means.
But yes, I appreciate the pressures she was under.
‘if you’re in a marginal seat, you might get your mug on TV during a live cross like I did in 2005″
Wear a cap with a big PB stencilled on it Frank so we can recognise your ugly mug if it happens again.
even Paul Murray has come out calling it for Labour in this morning’s West.
who would have thought it?
I can only think that with both the Libs and the ALP saying that they expect to lose, that they are terrified of complete voter apathy and want to panic their core voters.
my personal theory is that toggle voters do not care about either party enough to vote for them. They have not taken to Carpenter, and want to spank him for a lacklustre tenure and a few gaffs, but they like the Libs even less, and don’t trust them to govern any better. I think the female vote will be decisive, and the Buswell issue has not gone away yet. I expect a few choice shots from Sue Walker aimed at the Lib Boys Club.
The minor parties are not a serious option in the Lower House, so what do you do? I reckon both parties fear that most folk plan to stay home or vote informal.
I think I tipped Michelle Roberts and Margaret Quirk to get boned some weeks ago - they are in the factions that Carps has sought to neuter. He has tried to kill the factions by creating one of his own, so I agree with Frank that Whitby, Saffioti and Giffard will get parachuted into cabinet if they win their seats and the ALP retain government.
So Labor’s predictions of electoral defeat last week had the desired effect and scared some people away from giving a protest vote to Barnett?
I know next to nothing about WA politics, but from the little I’ve seen, Carpenter seems to me a competent enough bloke! All Labor has to do is remind people of Colin Barnett messing up his sums in 2005, that ought to seal the deal.
Couple of points,
Radisich is finished in WA. Her faction, the New Right, has completely imploded, and its major protagonists have either been executed or are marking time until the end of their careers. She would have about 5% of the votes needed to gain a winnable seat Federally, and that is unlikely to change in the next decade.
Watch the polls by the end of this week - afer the Libs have been advertising for 5 or 7 days, it will be interesting to see how the electorate reacts.
Not sure Giffard will get a gernsey ……….might have a bit of baggage.
L #46 ….”Watch the polls by the end of this week - afer the Libs have been advertising for 5 or 7 days, it will be interesting to see how the electorate reacts.”
That latest TV advert without any audio (the one that completely ignores the needs of those who are visually impaired) is so bloody annoying, I reckon it will help the Govt, not hinder them.
Labor has to win Swan Hills first, and given William’s summary of Giffard’s attempts to get a safe seat, and his lack of joy, it would seem unlikely he’d have enough support to get into cabinet.
Early days yet, but The Perth Files election poll is showing a swing to Canal Col:
http://theperthfiles.blogspot.com/2008/08/fear-and-loathing-on-wa-campaign-trail.html
Cast your vote and send the link to anyone you think might want to have a say.
8 votes for Carps, 9 votes for Col? That’s it? Well I suppose it’d have to be more accurate than Westpoll…
Okay, okay… as I said, it’s early days. By the way, it’s now neck and neck.
Well the ALP are already running such an ad -it’s on the front page of the ALP Campaign site.
http://www.visionwa.org.au/
I’m in Darling Range (ex Swan Hills) and have been subjected to a fairly intensive mail campaign by Tony Simpson. Barely a day goes by without something rather glossy turning up in an envelope.
Lisa Griffiths’ campaign has been a bit less constant, with maybe half the number of mailshots and less expensively printed material. However, there has been a doorknocker round (1st weekend of the campaign) with LG’s small daughter in tow (which I’m not sure I’m entirely comfortable with).
I’m really not sure if Darling Range will fall to the Libs. The population centres it now contains have high middle-class hippie and progressive professional demographics, neither of which will be keen on recent Lib shenanigans. I can see Lisa Griffiths’ prior career outside politics and in the sciences being a significant plus too. Unless she was involved in doing unspeakable things to fluffy bunnies in the name of research of course.
I must say, being in a marginal State seat makes elections are much more exciting than being in a safe Federal one.
And technically Graham Giffard lives in that electorate, his street is right on the boundary.
I think Middle Swan is missing out on the Swan Hills stuff with Ellenbrook pretty much getting all the attention - Frank Alban is at a distinct disadvantage because as a City of Swan councillor, he advocated an “Ellenbrook Levy” because he believed the City of Swan shouldn’t be paying for the Parks and Gardens.
Anyone have any feedback on whats been happening out Mt Lawley or Scarborough way??
My Ning from The Worst Of Perth
Oh you lucky things to live in a marginal seat. I live in Maylands (safe ALP), and have received one leaflet from the ALP and that’s it.
No door knocks, no flyers, no posters in the streets and I could not tell you the names of the Lib and minor party candidates. I can only assume the parties are concentrating their efforts on the marginals.
it is depressing to know that my vote will have little effect, and that the election will be decided by a very small number of swing voters in a handful of marginals. The government will be chosen by the Kaths and Kims of Joondalup and Jandakot; the aspirational sandpit dwellers who want to be effluent.
Today’s Mail Call.
3 items from Graham Giffard.
Rebate Guide
Achievements in Swan Hills Map
Personal letter addressed to me on Education.
plus voting guide from the WAEC.
besides yesterday’s Brian Burke flyer from the libs - the Liberal Candidate has been strangely quiet
I’m in Floreat and I’ve had nothing from anyone.
When I lived in Melbourne I was lucky enough to be in Bracksy’s seat of Williamstown the year he knocked Jeffrey off the perch so unexpectedly.
It’s that campaign when Kennett ran on a platform of just shutting up and hoping the ‘Joan Jet Kirner’ Labor years would drag them over the line - keeping the ALP firmly bogged down in the mire - that has me so worried.
Kennett was still very much near the top of his game, but his ‘arrogance’ caused the boilover.
Fyi, Shane Maloney’s Murray Whelan series captures this era beautifully for anyone interested in Victorian poilitics.
I wonder if Colin banning the Bong and growing dope for personal use has frightened those people who consider themselves small l Liberal, but who smoke the odd joint or two jumping ship and voting Labor ? Especially those who smoke it to relieve pain from MS and Cancer.
The Citizen’s Electoral Council hit letterboxes in Subiaco (and possibly surrounding areas) with a dvd, a paper-style newsletter, a brochure and some other piece of paper on Monday. “World’s leading economist Lyndon LaRouche says…” etc. Anyone else on the leafy/ier side of town seen this?
Of course this election is not over yet but in light of some journalists’ comments mentioned above I will put on record again what I said on the earlier Westpoll and Newspoll thread where the Libs were very close to Labor.
“17 Gary Bruce Says: August 16th, 2008 at 9:38 am
I think the Newspoll is significant but I also believe (and I could be wrong) that this is the Liberal’s high tide in the polls. When push comes to shove people don’t elect rabble to government unless the government is rabble itself which I understand isn’t the case here.”
I still believe this will be the case.
Second thing through the mailbox for me, in Belmont… from the WAEC, with a map outlining the electorate boundaries and listing the polling booths (but unhelpfully not marking them on the map, like the website does).
Skink: +1 on the safe seat boringness. I don’t know who the other candidates here are either… it’s Eric the Ripper and, um, yeah.
Now we might be able to get some renewable energy investment in Australia.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=3&ContentID=94714
I was doing pre-poll HTV handouts at the Joondalup AEC office this morning (people from the seats of Mindarie, Ocean Reef, Joondalup and Wanneroo mostly)
The Lib guy rocked up at 10 am (1hr after opening), with some paper, a placard or two leaning against the wall, with some sandy rocks holding down his HTV cards. I actually felt sorry for the guy cos it was clear they were so unprepared.
Meanwhile, Labor had a nice umbrella, nicely organized HTV cards in pretty boxes with lots of big posters.
I live in a marginal too Forrestfield. Very different to living in a safe seat.
Have had lots of mail from the ALP candidate Andrew Waddell. And have been door knocked. Nice to actually meet the candidate. The ALP also have this big truck driving around advertising the ALP candidate which I have seem quite a bit.
Only had two things from the Liberal candidate. One a while ago and then the postal vote thing. Not heard of him door knocking either.
I live in the safe ALP seat of Perth. I’ve received nothing at all.
The local member (John Hyde) is great though!
I get the feeling that most of the Lib candidates are resting their chances on “Come-back Col” rather than spend too much money on campaign material.
All the material i’ve seen so-far hasnt had any solid commitments or policies, just attacking Labor (Burke, arrogance,etc, etc). Pretty shallow and boring stuff so-far.
I’d point out that the 500 Club this week donated $400,000 (count those zeroes) to the Liberal marginal seats campaign. I’d be fascinated to hear from marginal seat residents about the quantity and content of what they receive in the coming week.
after yesterday mentioning the website TheTruthaboutTroy.com, and posting the Sniffer song, the ABC have picked up on it.
are we doing the media’s work for them?
at least it is proof that the journos are reading this site
more power to your elbow
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/28/2349334.htm
Looks to me like truthabouttroy.com may have been taken down.
However, it’s still available via Google Cache:
http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:fLDaCShx4PkJ:truthabouttroy.com/index.php+the+truth+about+troy+wa+alp&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=5&gl=au&client=firefox-a
I did see the story about the 500 Club donation on the ABC news on Tuesday night
there was excellent footage of the local spokesman announcing the donation and the Club’s undying support for Barnett whilst a waiter in a tux cleared away the silverware from their three course lunch.
Barnett announced his planned tax cuts at the lunch, which were primarily to payroll tax and developers’ fees, so the Club’s members are bound to recoup any donation they make to the Libs if they get in.
#70 WB…. thats a good point.
From what i’ve seen so far its seems to have been done in house on colour printers (ie @ a Federal Liberal MP/Senators office)…… I bet we’ll see a push with some nice glossy’s next week in the seats they think they can win.
Charles @ 104 in the previous thread.
Great link.
Good to see that shareholders sometimes revolt for all the right reasons.
When the libnat shareholders also revolted on the same issue in the last fed election, the Lavoisier Group had an impact, but not the one they were gunning for.
Now, over to Rudd & Co, to see what they will do.
As I said yesterday, it seems that Troy website was prepared for an election with Troy as leader, and it seems that once Barnett was elected, they forgot to take it offline.
Hi William,
Is there no interest in the battles between sitting Lib & Nat members for Blackwood-Stirling and Moore?
If the Nats lose, they may also lose party status in the Parliament and begin the slide into electoral oblivion.
Forgive me for not having read the entirety of yesterday’s comments.
Noel Chrichton-Browne on Personal Attacks this Election.
Talk about Pots and Kettles
especially when it comes to Sleaze 
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20080828-WA-election-personal-and-sleazy.html
Carpenter orders Buswell website to be taken down.
But note this bit.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24256123-2761,00.html
GB 63 -
Innovative quoting yourself to prove a point.
Frank @ 79
Thanks for the link. Is it perception or does misogyny seems to run through politics in WA?
I note that the conservatives are outraged over the Troy buswell site. But don’t I recall the libs doing the same for both Mark Latham and Kevin Rudd as well ?
Talk about Pots and Kettles.
TruthaboutTroy has been given a run by PerthNow and WAToday, but you heard it here first, folks.
Joe Spagnolo, Chris Thomson - I know you read this - you owe me a beer
And not a word from The West either - have they got Net Nanny installed ?
I think sites like this one and worstofperth will be the ultimate influence on the election outcome.
77 Luke: I’m sorta interested. Blackwood-Stirling is more likely to go to the Nats due to Paul Omodei taking his bat and ball and going home, Moore… I’m not sure. It’s gonna be one of those seats where ALP prefs decide it… I had a bit of a google, but can’t find their HTV cards. (I’m guessing the Nats.) They’ll keep Central Wheatbelt and Wagin, so that’s three or four seats they’ll get.
By the way, one thing I found on the ALP site was the TV ads they’re running on GWN and WIN. Nice chirpy looking ads about what the govt’s been doing for Albany / Bunbury / etc, as opposed to the DOOOMM ads about Colin Barnett they’ve been running on Perth TV.
Barnett to redefine Election Campaign.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/28/2349542.htm
Truth? - you can’t handle the truth
Bill Johnston on ABC Drive explains the story about thetruthabouttroy.com
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/08/28/2349545.htm
90 That was a rambling interview Frank. I fail to see what harm there is in using material that is out there on the public record. It’s not as Labor they were making claims based on thin air.
Oops It’s not as though Labor were making claims based on thin air.
Exactly, I can rememvber quite a few Liberal “Dirt” websites at the last federal election.
and as for Russell Woolfe, it confirms my suspicions, he’s a Liberal Stooge. CAn you imagine how he would respond if the Libs did a similar website ?
ABC Drive did a few interviews of Nedlands folk… looks like the apathy bug’s everywhere. Half of them didn’t even know who the local member was, even though Sue Walker’s kinda well known.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/wa/files/nedlands_voxies_air.mp3
In relation to the big business $400k bump to the Lib war chest
The WA Union movement has dug a bit deeper aswell. Not to the tune of $400k, but it means the following ad will now run on all comercial channels during evening prime time viewing, every eveneing right up until the black out.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=iTG4nKbRTbk
Originally it was planned to run less often and on less channels.
After the launch of the advertisment, Colin Barnet and David Robinson from UnionsWA had a to-and-fro on radio. It is clear that the Libs don’t want the IR word mentioned.
Will the Ads raise this issue to some prevalence?
Transcript
SIMON BEAUMONT: True to his word Colin Barnett has given us some time in the studio this week. Dave Robinson has called in, he’s the secretary of Unions WA…[greetings not transcribed]
DAVE ROBINSON: “Colin, look I heard you talk about the policy, raft of policies you’ve got but there’s a huge omission, Colin. People spend a huge amount of time at work and policy in relation to workplace rights is fundamental to them and their families. Why are you, Colin, keeping WA voters in the dark about your industrial relations policy and why don’t you even have a shadow spokesperson on industrial relations?
COLIN BARNETT: “Well, Dave, one of the reasons, as you well know, is that industrial relations has essentially become federal now. Now there are issues obviously…
DAVE ROBINSON:”[inaudible]
COLIN BARNETT: “…no, with public sector employees, I agree.
DAVE ROBINSON: “Absolutely, and we’ve got a raft of small business as well.
COLIN BARNETT: “Yep, issues for non incorporated businesses, there are. Dave, what… we’re… we’re not going to be saying a lot about industrial relations in this election campaign, it is primarily lead Federally now and it flows on into public sector and the small sector… small business area.
But what we will be saying something about, and what I hope you will support us on, we’ll be saying something about restoring the integrity and the professionalism and the independence of West Australia’s public service. And, Dave, I’ll be counting on your support as a… as a prominent [inaudible] sector [inaudible] leader because it’s going to be in your members’ interest, Dave, that we fix up the public service.
DAVE ROBINSON: “Yes, but what is fundamental to people is to know what is going to happen to them in their workplaces in WA where you’ve got control over WA which you still have, unless you intend to cede all of your powers to the Commonwealth, is that what you’re intending to do?
COLIN BARNETT: “Ah, no, Dave, I won’t be doing that. Dave, look you shouldn’t be doing Labor Party calls to me.
DAVE ROBINSON: “I‘m not, no.
SIMON BEAUMONT: “Dave, are you a member of the Labor Party, Dave?
DAVE ROBINSON: “Of course I am, but…
COLIN BARNETT: “Yeah, well…
DAVE ROBINSON: “…this is about the workers.
COLIN BARNETT: “Okay, Dave. Dave, look at my record, my… Colin Barnett’s record in education..
DAVE ROBINSON: “That’s… that’s exactly what we do and we remember individual contracts and privatisation and [inaudible].
COLIN BARNETT: “Dave… Dave… Dave, you… look at my record in education, in improving the conditions and the housing and the salaries of teachers across this state. Look at the speeches I’ve made, one after the other in Parliament over the last 18 years about the importance of an independent professional public service in this state, that is what with respect, you should be advocating for your members. And that is what, if I’m premier, Dave, and I’ll… I’ll look forward to working with you ‘cause I like you, I’ve always got on reasonably well with you except for on the radio, but we get on okay, and I will work with you and I seek your advice and cooperation in restoring the independence, the professionalism and the standing of the West Australian public service.
DAVE ROBINSON: “That’s… that’s the public sector, what about everyone else?
COLIN BARNETT: “And… and that’s what… that’s what I’ll be doing, Dave.
SIMON BEAUMONT: “Better… better move on. Dave, thank you for calling and thank you for listening to the program as you always do.
But note a couple of notable absentees, the WA State School Teachers Union, and the Construction division of the CFMEU - it seems Heavie Kevie isn’t happy Carps forced him and Shells out, and the Teachers aren’t happy because of the Pay Deal.
You have to laugh at Barnetts comments re the Buswell website.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/buswell-website-pulled-20080828-44sa.html
Well why didn’t Troy think of that before he did what he did ?
Do you see the CFMEU not chipping in as profile damage or boost for ALP Frank?
Frank, do they have a Shadow Minister for Industrial Relations over there and if they do what does he get paid for if he doesn’t produce IR policy?
a boost because ever since Shelley Srcher decided to take her bat and ball home, there hasn’t been a peep from Kevin or Joe, mind you, they’re both worrying about their own political future atm
Fair call frank and without getting too far off topic;
“…there hasn’t been a peep from Kevin or Joe, mind you, they’re both worrying about their own political future atm”
so the follow up question would be:
do you see the CFMEU not chipping in to the ad campaign as a profile damage or boost for Kevin and Joe with thier members?
Profile damaging to them, but a profile boost to the challengers as they can rightly say that KEvin & Joe don’t care about their members.
BBD,
do you feel shafted by the FEds on IR?
I relish the challenge to move the feds ESJ and the Union movement is more willing to pushback against them than in any time in living memory
Come now BBD, its Workchoices lite that’s being prepared for you - as someone said if you mix shite and ice cream you get shite flavoured ice cream.
Heavie Kevvie and Medicare Gold arent looking out for your best interests are they?
ESJ, whatever did happen to the IR policy of the WA Liberals? Heard anything about why they can’t release it?
Um Steve - IR is no longer a State issue - it was agreed last Friday.
Did they throw the policy in a canal or something?
I am surprised tha Alannah McTiernan does not have a bigger following. With the possible exception of Carpenter, she impressed me the most during our short time in the West.
I am amazed that the Libs might win, yet feel pessimistic. They have been the most dismal State opposition I can remember. Can’t recall one policy initiative prior to the calling of the election. The West Australian continue to be the real opposition.
107 ESJ, surely they will have to pass state legislation to adapt to Friday’s agreement whatever that was? And won’t the Liberals need to explain what their position is before the election?
The only Industrial News of significance I heard last Friday was that Morgan had sacked 60 workers.
http://www.actu.asn.au/Media/Mediareleases/default.aspx
steve, there is news as in news which is repeated in newspapers and then there is news which is not published.
Oh, so it is a secret just like the WA Liberal IR policy? A strange world we live in ESJ.
No steve there was a meeting of IR ministers last Friday, strangely no news has been published as to what was decided in that meeting.
114 Edward - so what was it?
ESJ, sure you are not getting overexcited about very little?
http://mediacentre.dewr.gov.au/NR/rdonlyres/6BEE6747-1709-4623-9A52-31336F053FF4/0/WRMC77Communique.pdf
Now that that furphy is out of the way, there is nothing stopping the WA Liberals from releasing their IR policy is there?
steve 116 - no
GB - the states are referring their residual ir powers. So the WA IR thing is a beatup and they now it.
Or the Liberals could just throw their policy out there for public discussion and see what happens.
steve well it would be like the WA Labor party producing a State defence or foreign affairs policy.
ABC TV news item on truthaboutroy.com
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/08/28/2349589.htm
All we have so far ESJ is your say so. A claim without a shred of backing.
that’s all you need steve, believe me.
119 Edward how about this scenario Edward. The Libs win the state election and refuse to refer their IR powers to Canberra.
Afterall, if the meeting was last Friday the WA IR minister could not make any decisions being in caretaker mode.
126 The WA minister was one of the apologies, no doubt for that reason Gary.
Or the Greens and one independent could block it in the senate and the Liberal WA government has snuck through without any scrutiny in the election campaign.
I actually could see the Libs holding onto their IR powers. If the NSW Libs can vote against privatisation of anything then the WA Libs would be odds on to their IR powers.
124 Edward - so we just have to take your word?
To quote someone from another thread “Give me some more of those vintage ESJ quotes to support ESJ arguments.
Instead of “I think therefore I am” we have “I posted before therefore I am correct ” in your case.
Who knows how the Queensland Pineapple Party would vote either. The Nationals split from the Liberals to oppose and vote against workchoices in the Queensland Parliament last year.
I note on Ch 9 news has quoted Troy Buswell has seen it and that “he doesn’t care”.
And the sleazy stuff is only a small part of the site - it included his views on Daylight Saving, why he was a member of the ALP and other matters on the public record which would ghave easily be found with a google search.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/video?vxSiteId=1929a7b6-d2c6-4f56-bacf-9ca1759ced99&vxChannel=Nine%20News&vxClipId=1201_080828_ninenews&vxBitrate=300
Well, I just had a dig in my recycle bin and came up with the last two days’ efforts from the big two in Darling Range.
Two pieces from Tony Simpson, both arriving in the mail and addressed to both myself and Mrs Bogan. Yesterday’s was a card flyer mailout. Decent if not stunning quality printing. Big photo of Mr Simpson next to a pair of STOP signs (not sure about the symbolism there) and the slogan “Working for our local community”. On the reverse is Tony Simpson’s strong plan for Darling Range, which appears to consist of four dot points. Making our streets safe again (it’s the Hills for heaven’s sake, I’ve known more dangerous kindy classes), more police patrolling our streets (fair enough, when there is an incident it takes ages for coppers to attend), providing a more reliable power supply (also fair enough, as supply reliability here is on the third world side of appalling) and restoring quality local education (wasn’t aware that things had slipped). Slogan, “A strong voice for Darling Range”.
Today’s was a more labour intensive but probably cheaper “personal” letter, apparently signed by the man himself, spruiking his environmental credentials with particular emphasis on his opposition to “poorly planned developments” in the Hills. I’m not at all sure if a Lib has any credibility when it comes to curbing rapacious developers though.
One piece from Lisa Griffiths. Also a personally signed letter, interestingly addressed only to me and not to Mrs Bogan (contrast with TS’s efforts). Candidate raises three main points. The need for better power supply reliability (again), the need for more (and particularly non-sporting) facilities for teenagers and the challenge of local water supply. However, having raised these points, there are not even hints at solutions, let alone details of proposed actions.
There’s been lots of previous stuff but I’ve been conscientiously filing it in the recycling until today. However, the main weapon on both sides appears to be the personally addressed letter rather than the anonymous mail box drop. And, like I said, only one doorknock from the ALP.
If I was a swinging voter, I don’t know that I’d find either side terribly persuasive.
The minor parties have been basically silent, although the Greens candidate did put a post up on a motorcycle forum that I frequent. Not exactly mass marketing though.
I’ll report on any further material as it arrives.
Here are the Top 10 most popular stories on Perth Now, and the Buswell website isn’t one of them.
In fact it wasn’t even the lead story, which was the Jane Rimmer video and the death of the All Saints Actor.
1. Watch the Jane Rimmer video
2. Stars pay tribute to Priestley
3. Great Rotto shark hoax
4. Two-headed baby dies at home
5. Vesna’s tirade at Idol bosses
6. Eagles demand top picks for Kerr
7. Sullivan ‘going it alone’
8. Hawko’s new catwalk trip-up
9. Mauled Aussie maggot-ridden
10. Cops hit by drug lab fumes
Wayne Thompson, Independent Candidate for Carine again at LP.
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/07/day-1-of-the-wa-state-electionand-were-all-bored-already/#comment-500003
Damn, they’ve deleted his post
Hooooley Mooley. Now that’s a post. They haven’t deleted, it’s there and it’s enormous. I’ve gotta admit I haven’t read it… in the time it took me to scroll through it, my eyebrows had time to hit the top of my head, then come back down again. What’s he talking about?
Garrett changes tune on uranium
SMH - August 28, 2008 - 7:56PM
SNIP: Wayne, please provide a link rather than pasting articles in full. Comments should also be relevant to the subject of the post - PB
Wayne G. Thompson (Independent)
Carine 2008 State Election
Bird,
It’s a new post on a different thread, the original he was rambling on about “Charity Begins At Home”
It’s all right wing Sattler stuff.
I wouldn’t put it past Colin becoming Premier of WA on September 6, let us not forget that everybody seemed to expect Jeff Kennett to be returned in 1999 and that did not occur as Labor surprised the pundits. The same situation then appears to be repeating itself now with the incumbent doing a steady job with the economy, but was perceived as arrogant and out of touch and this cost them dearly when it came to the crunch. If anything is only to hurt the ALP and potentially cost them the 2008 election, it is arrogance with a touch of corruption.
Perhaps the greatest folly is that while Colin cost the Libs the 2005 election, had he stayed on and not resigned the Libs wouldnt have had 5 different leaders and could have put a far more convincing case to voters that they are ready to govern, the biggest stumbling block for the Libs this time around.
Still we all knew well in advance that if any Labor Governments would go down in flames after the election of the Rudd Labor Government, it would be in W.A and N.S.W.
I for one will be surprised and happy if the Liberals can win a State election since god only knows how long ago, it’s about bloody time. The result in N.T most likely wont be repeated in the magnitude of swings, but the will of the people has been shown to look unfavourably on Governments who smell of corruption and arrogance. Labor may just win in the end, but i wouldnt put it past the good voters in the West in chucking the ALP out with the dish water and giving the other mob a go, hell that’s just what happened to Mr John Howard last year.
Re: Garrett changes tune on Uranium article in the SMH - link as follows:
http://news.smh.com.au/national/garrett-changes-tune-on-uranium-20080828-44rf.html
Wayne Thompson - Independent
Candidate - Carine WA State Election 2008
140 Glen, you can’t dig up a copy of the WA Liberal Party IR policy for us can you? The locals seem to have misplaced their copy.
steve your being silly
I think hell has freezed over in NSW
We have a Labor premier voting for privatisation, because he had stuffed up the budget so much he has no money to spend
We have unions who is against privatisation, because …… every other state and almost every other country in the world had done it …. so it must be …. bad
And we have the NSW Liberals …. the incompetants …. who are against privatisation … yeah i do not trust the NSW Labor with my $1, let alone 16bn, but this takes the cake ….. they voted it down
1999 Vic is an interesting precedent, from memory Kennett started well ahead and lost ground steadily through the campaign, but the media (and Kennett) discounted the poll evidence that had both parties neck and neck by poll day. WA Labor don’t seem to be making Kennett’s mistake. But the 3 independents who put Labor in power In Vic all represented safe conservative seats. No equivalent of this in WA.
Collie-preston just a slice of gossip, nothing scientific, but from the Capel end of the electorate - people voting national for the first time in their life … wouldn’t tell me who they preferenced; because they wished they didn’t have too, but never mind, we will see if they have a few thousand friends or not in about 8 days.
Geoff, in Victoria in 1999, the Labor Party had the shadow Cabinet door knocking in Dandenong North two days before the election because they thought they would lose the seat. Neither party’s polling picked up the swing that thumped Kennett. In the more than 40 elections I’ve covered, it is the only election result I’ve seen where the swing in rural seats was three times the size of the swing in the mortgage belt. It is the only time in Victorian political history where the Labor Party came to office without gaining a seat in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne.
Kennett ran what the Americans call a ‘bandwagon’ campaign, and it is the case that convinces political parties to paint themselves as the underdog.
Jasmine, your gossip obviously isn’t very scientific. There is no National candidate in Collie-Preston.
I need to talk to better voters … they had voted … that is a worry.
They may have been thinking of the Legislative Council.
When Mcnair Anderson used to do exit polls in the 1980s, you used to get 10-15% don’t knows to the ‘Who did you vote in the Senate’ question. If people can’t give you an answer after they’ve voted about who you directed preferences to, or who you voted for in the Senate, is it any wonder that opinion polls conducted before the election tend to be unreliable with preferences and senate questions.
ESJ,
The current WA government will not refer its IR powers. It may pass mirrored legislation, or may have a “text based referral”, ie. a form of referral that can be revoked by State Parliament at any time. There will be no Victoria-style formal referral of the remaining IR powers with respect to non-constitutional corporations or State government entities.
Looks as if Colin’s plan to fill WA’s prisons with minor drug offenders might be a solution in search of a problem.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/29/2349686.htm
Hopefully Labor will pick this up and run with it as it puts a bit of a hole in one of the Libs Laura Norder planks.
Thanks Anthony - usually here they just call me a dill, which I’m pretty comfortable with.
Antony@147
Hmmm, I remember being in Victoria for the week before the election. There was a shift on about the Wednesday/Thursday - what started happening was that people started calling in to both the Greens & ALP offices (I had cause to be contacting the ALP on behalf of the Vic Greens) asking to help hand out material (leaflets & particularly HTV’s) when previously it had been really quite difficult to get people out. On the Monday I had an ALP organiser saying they were going to be lucky to properly cover booths in Ballarat & Bendigo, but by Thursday had way more than enough. I always had a sense that people thought it might actually be possible to change Government and decided to try, rather than just accepting that Kennett was going to win
Peter Kennedy on the Week in Politics.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/08/29/2349857.htm
Matt C,
The public sector will remain with the States. Otherwise the lot will be referred.
Not that it matters in any event 85% of employers are constitutional corporations.
Even if it is correct that there is a secret or unannounced agreement to refer IR powers – and I’ve seen no evidence for it other than your own assertion – from an electoral point of view this is the same as there being no agreement. The WA Libs have no IR policy to offer, and no reason that they can, or are willing, to point to for having none. The effect on voters is the same as if they actually had no reason for having no policy. At best, it makes them look amateurish and incompetent, a perception they are struggling to escape from anyway. At worst, it makes them look like scheming bastards who know that, if they revealed their intentions with respect to IR, they would be unpopular with voters.
Perhaps Stewart J, but Labor won seats it had never held before in history, seats it wouldn’t have even bothered polling. It won every seat in Bendigo and Ballarat for the first time. It won Narracan for the first time in decades. But it only gained 3 seats in Melbourne on a small swing.
And as I said, Labor were so worried about Melbourne they were door knocking their own seats. If you had a perception, it obviously wasn’t in the party polling. I’ve seen more 20:20 hindsight about the 1999 Victorian election then any other in my time.
I’d assume we would expect some sort of a Westpoll out overnight Antony would we? I just hope it shows the Liberals being competitive still.
Don’t worry Dovif (144) - If the Liberals win the next election, they’ll very quickly find a reason why privatisation is a good idea after all. A leopard doesn’t change its spots and you can be sure their decision to vote against it was based on short term expediency, not any kind of principle.
Mail Watch - Swan Hills.
Letter from Graham Giffard re Banning GM Crops.
Frank Alban, letter promising New Primary School for Ellenbrook, and a new Distict High School for Bullsbrook, plus a 4 page glossy Liberal Party brochure outlining their promises so far - no doubt funded by the 500 club.
It should be pointed out there are 3 Government Primary Schools in the area already, plus a High School, and several private schools.
161 Darn - the reason the Libs gave for voting against privatisation was because NOW was not the right time economically to do it. You can bet the right time for them would be just after they were elected.
Who says the Libs have learned nothing in 8 years of opposition, the realisation that building schools beats the hell out running them down.
Hmm, Barnett is throwing money at the North West.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=94918
Ok,
I’ve tallied up the mail stuff and here are the figures.
ALP - 9 items (including 1 addressed to me as a member seeking support with campaigning)
Libs - 4.
Other parties nil.
The ALP figure should be plus 1 addresed to me which makes it 10.
William’s in the sealed section of Crikey again
ESJ,
Yes, there will be some sort of referral of powers by WA. However, it will not be a complete referral. The closest to that will be a text-based referral, which can be revoked by the State.
Around 35% of employees in WA remain in the State industrial relations system (this includes State Government employees, employees of sole traders and partnerships, and employees of incorporated entities without significant trading or financial activities). The 85% of employees (not employers, as you said) is a national figure, and that includes the entirety of employees in Victoria, the Territories and the federal public service.
There will not be a full referral of powers by the WA Government (unless there is a change of Government). Either cite your source or shut up.
I don’t understand how you could claim that there was some secret decision made last Friday, while the WA Govt is in caretaker mode. The other States can’t resolve to refer WA’s powers on its behalf. Nor would NSW have been in any position to make a decision, given the fact that the are currently without a substantive Minister (Della Bosca has been temporarily stood down).
Looks like a bit of polling is needed to refresh the election narrative.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=94952
PS Sorry to have drifted off topic, but it is related to the question of the Liberal Party’s intentions re: IR
The Greens must be going for the Monarchist vote… from a Greens WA media statement:
Mitchella Hutchins, a well known local indigenous woman running for the Greens against Troy Buswell, is a major challenge for the discredited, ex- leader of the Liberal Party.
“The Greens are running a strong candidate against a man who has discredited himself, the Parliament and the Liberal Party,” says Greens Member for the South West, Paul Llewellyn.
“Mitchella Hutchins is a high profile, local business woman who is well respected in the Vasse area and who has met the Governor and the Queen.
Oh Dear, Colin is going to look like a dill if this is indeed the case.
http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2008/08/29/5534_ntnews.html
which is related to this.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/29/2350471.htm
Peter Kennedy says this text message was sent to him “in the early hours of the morning” from a person who “has been a good source in the past”.
William,
I had posted the audio file earlier, but thanks for the transcript anyway
Looks very close. Bridging a two seat gap doesn’t seem insurmountable.
The last week should be crucial, with anything potentially tipping the pendulum one way or the other. More corruption revelations could do it.
177 “More corruption revelations could do it.”
AC more likely they will backfire but it would be funny watching the Liberals snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
That two seat gap might be less surmountable than it looks. Look at the pendulum and you will see the Liberals need to hold Albany and Geraldton and win nine seats from Labor. Kingsley and Bunbury are apparently in the bag, and they can surely win Darling Range. Candidate factors in Collie-Preston (Mick Murray has already had his sophomore surge and Steve Thomas hasn’t) and North West (Labor candidate still perceived as blow-in goes up against a popular returning former member) suggest they are respectively likely and possible Liberal gains. Riverton very shaky for Labor as well. There’s six seats, but the next three are harder to find. If the northern suburbs truly are “tiger country”, Joondalup and Swan Hills might be on the table - though the consensus seems to be that they’re not, which suggests this “tiger country” line reflects a swing of about 4 per cent. Other required gains will have to come from areas that are expressly not “tiger country”, and thus on track to produce smaller swings. Jandakot (3.6 per cent) has enjoyed the double whammy of the Mandurah rail line and the Fiona Stanley Hospital project. Beyond that, Forrestfield (4.5 per cent), Southern River (5.1 per cent) and Mount Lawley (5.8 per cent) look out of range, and aren’t being discussed.
Victoria 1999, Anthony right that there has been a lot of hindsight. I once heard a senior ALP figure say that it was on the night before that they concluded that if the drift of votes continued they had a chance. Parties should be encouraged to donate their private polling for academic study after a decent interval. I suspect much of it would have little relation to what leaks out.
Re Barnett’s Inpex claims, the Northern Treasurer has already rejected the claim that Darwin has been selected.
Former WA Premier Peter Dowding talks to the ABC’s Adam Haynes about the election campaign.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/08/29/2349688.htm
I think the final result will be
Lab/Lib/Nat/Ind
33-18-3-3
With Lab losing Kingsley, Darling and Bunno
Ive tipped Walker snatching Nedlands, but I wouldnt bet my house on it (if i owned a house)
And btw, Joondalup will not fall, I’ve been at the Joondalup AEC office doing pre-poll HTV handouts, Labor is performing strongly. Tony seems to be a popular local member.
Re Ocean Reef handouts, too close to call
Mindarie, def Labor, same with Wanneroo
It’s funny how often Colin Barnett mentions Donna Faragher. I’d never heard of her until two weeks ago.
Any word on the ground on the Buswell website ? Do you think it’s a deciding factor ?
That’s her married name, she entered the upper house at the last election under her maiden name, which was Taylor.
“Labor believes it will retain Geraldton and possibly Albany. ”
Doesn’t that make it a 4 seat gap if this is possible.
Doesn’t that Buswell website stuff just put Buswell in the limelight again. No matter which way it comes Buswell is still not what the Libs want at the forefront of voter’s minds.
Re Frank
No, I doubt anyone cares about that silly website
These things may seem big in the news cycle, but for most people, its a vote for the party with the prettiest HTV cards. A large amount of people asked me today which party is currently in government, and decided they would just vote for them.
Oh yes, I dimly remember Donna Taylor.
Exactly, I’m pretty sure internal polling on both sides has highlighted this and that the mere mention of his name is enough to turn people off.
I see my summary overlooked Ocean Reef, which you’d think the Liberals would win.
So can anyone confirm if we are getting a Westpoll this evening/2mw?
And I haven’t heard of her yet. What’s that about William? Something I’ve missed?
Donna Farragher, I mean.
William,
Positive ALP ad with Carpenter and two of his daughters just screened on Ch 10 and is up on the ALP site.
http://www.visionwa.org.au/video/TVP117.wmv
192
William, yes I noticed that, Ocean Reef is a generally affluent Ocean side seat similar to Hillary’s. It’s a still got a more of a younger demographic than Hillarys tho (a lot of young people staying with the parentals), and Ocean Reef (the suburb) actually has the highest number number of overseas born residents in the metro area, so it is quite unique.
It’s in a fairly strong Lib Fed area, however Quigley seemed to do quite well as the Labor state member.
Barnett keeps mentioning her as a rising liberal star and future Minister. and their youngest member at 33.
That new positive ad is quite good. Carpenter is so much more likeable than cardboard Barnett.
And have you noticed how Carpenter isn’t afraid to use his family, unlike Barnett who famously said to Carpenter as Education Minister on the eve of the 2001 poll “Leave my boy alone” when Carpenter asked Barnett if he will send his son to a Government School.
SeanofPerth, if Westpoll assisted the Libs it would have been out already.
I predict more of the same , with the Libs down a futher point or two now Barnett’s honeymoon is over.
Don’t believe that Murray & co don’t know something. They are trying to save some respectibility when their Golden Haired darling goes down.
Shit
I hope we dont have to have a ministerial sacking during the campaign
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/29/2350678.htm
Lead story on ABC TV News.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/29/2350678.htm
SeanofPerth - snap.
William, you can delete my post as it’s a duplicate.
But I think Michelle will escape this because of the advice from her department.
I just hope its not the lead story in the west 2mw - i dont want this to blow up
they were surprisingly anti lib pro labor today
two special westpolls
walker to lose
dorazio preferences giving morley to liberal
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=94996
Special Westpoll taken in Morley & Nedlands.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=94996
The west has a Westpoll result recently published on its website (an hour or so ago) recording that Sue Walker is carrion and Whitby might be in trouble from his Liberal opponent on the back of D’Orazio’s preferences.
They wouldn’t be concentrating on this gormless dribble if Westpoll said anything universally favourable for the Libs.
Damn, great minds etc Sean.
indeed frank
well i hope we get a statewide westpoll 2mw?!!
Surely we are going to get some polls before the election?
I wonder if the building owner interviewed has links to the Liberal Party, and why only run the story on the ABC ?
William, all my gossip has Swan Hills in play. The premier has been out there at least once possibly twice (which excludes any suggestion Labor has given it away - which some drunks were suggesting along with Rita getting a shock next door) but nothing in my gossip suggests it is a Labor certainty which some surely thought it would be.
So the building concerned has not been touched, there is no indication of any intention to do so, the Heritage Council is aware of the situation and the reason for the non permanent listing, and are perfectly free and able to re- interim list the property if they have not already done so.
Anyone able to refute my assessment? If not, it is just more sleaze and innuendo from the masters of gutter tactics.
Have the Libs put up a website about this yet? They could call it Potty Porter’s Porkies.
That is indeed the case - if shhe had indeed signed off on it, then THAT would be conflict of interest.
And is it not an honour and a priviledge to have one’s property heritage listed? Who in their right mind would refuse the honour if they were able to accept it?
I think you’ll find this is the Libs attempt to get back at Roberts for refusing to Heritage List Cherrita - the Court Family Home when the owners wanted to demolish it and redevelop the property.
I detect a whiff of anxiety amonst the Labor comrades posting tonight.
And futher it is my view that Cherita,the former lifelong residence of that great Statesman and Civic Leader, Sir Charles Court, should be heritage listed.
Oh yes I forgot, it’s been sold and knocked down….
Frank, perhaps you and I should consult before posting!
ABC TV story on the alleged “Conflict of Interest”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/08/29/2350648.htm
Govt must have got what they wanted today in respect to pulling the Troy boy site… plenty of air time to repeat the message out about bras, sniffing and inexperience
And here is the section of the Heritage Act which deals in Conflict of Interest, but makes no mention if the the person with the conflict is the Minister, so Michelle did indeed err on the side of caution in refusing to sign off.
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/wa/consol_act/howaa1990295/s26.html
which is why the opposiition and the media don’t get it, if they had ignored the story, it would’ve died a natural death, but by highlighting it, it has brought the issue back out in the open and has turned the attention on the original target.
yeh thats what i thought
like honestly, barnett on TV defending troy buswell and saying he has suffered must have been exactly what Labor was hoping for
the thing is, i’m sure carpenter was fully aware of the site
however the libs raised it, and carpenter was made to look positive and premier like by scrapping the site, all the while making barnett look like an idiot
it went to script perfectly
Frank: exactly… it’s a good tactic when you want to continue pushing a particular message… the punters aren’t interested in the site (although no doubt several are looking for it) but it keeps it in the public eye… expect some emphasis now will be on Lib’s ‘independent’ assessment (rather than Treasury) of its costings to get momentum (Ch 10 news tonight).
And I wonder if they will both (Buswell & Barnett) be making the announcement - it would bring up images of Fred Flintstone (Buswell) and Barney Rubble (Barnett)
I note you ignored my previous comment, ESJ.
West TV on Bill Johnston.
http://www.westtv.com.au/?vxSiteId=43c6a3c7-abf1-4c32-b98d-c27f8fa83360&vxChannel=News&vxClipId=1416_WAU1447&vxBitrate=300
any comment on Statewide re Frank’s friend John D, and Whitby? I thought the interview was pretty hopeless from all angles?
Interview was pretty lame
D’Orazio looked weak and whiney, a useless old fool
Whitby looked nervous but his lines were OK
The questions could have been a bit more interesting
‘Westpoll reveals Walker, Whitby in trouble’
“Two specially commissioned Westpolls have revealed that controversial Independent Sue Walker will lose her seat of Nedlands at the coming state election and Premier Alan Carpenter’s glamour recruit in Morley, television journalist Reece Whitby could also lose to the Liberals in what would be a major upset.”
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=94996
D’Orazio looked weak and whiney, a useless old fool
He reminded me of this song
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=6qJfUppgVwA
Simon,
See Posts 206-208
Already covered, and a sideshow.
Do we know how many were polled?
Which was surprising for a Political Journo, but then again Rebecca Carmody reminds me of a yapping poodle
I’m assuming the usual 400 this time drawn from John D’Orazio’s personal address book
Liberal Party “Called An Early Election” ad, based on Laura Norder.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=zVWdGOrJU6U
Is that 200 per seat do you think Frank? It would be meaningful if it was 400 per seat.
Isn’t it strange having an opposition complaining about an early election. I remember oppositions in the past daring governments to go to an early election.
And a Liberal ad featuring Brian Burke.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=HW32g1C7riM
I’m assuming it’s 400 per seat, but we will find out when William gets the dead tree version.
Oh and is the ABC Biased to the Libs ? According to a friend of mine (female) who was in the Upper House for Many Years, was telling me that she was chatting to Lillijana Ravlich & Eric Ripper who were doorknocking in Riverton and got an excellent response, but heard ABC Drive play a Vox Pop of voters, and they were all Liberals.
Bill Johnston’s entry into parliamentary State politics is just one more reason major political parties need to choose candidates who are anything but Party big wig hacks, im sorry but what exactly does this absolute nobody bring to politics except smear and personal attacks.
Surely Labor could have fielded a candidate in Cannington with more to give to the ALP and the State of WA….
And wasn’t Andrew Robb a Former Federal Liberal Paerty Director Glen ?
Mr Pot, Meet Mr Kettle
On one level Glen i disagree, you’d hope most of your party big wigs could make excellent members, on the other levels I could not agree more.
242
I listened the the ABC thing on riverton this afternoon
It was basically 4-5 Liberal voters in a row with the usual health, arrogance blah blah
They must have gone to a retirement village
If you’ll read my post i did say this of both major parties frank.
Re Heritage listing of houses.
Having something heritage listed is a nightmare. You literally can’t change anything including inside without permission even have to paint in approved colours. It would be fair to assume that if the heritage listing didn’t go ahead, the properties would be worth a lot more. So put simply, by not listing, it lapsed, suddenly worth a lot more, serious conflict of interest. Surely the competant thing would have been to delegate the task, and have no further thing to do with it. Did she simply forget, or was it useful to pretend to do so?
You can put whatever spin on it you like, but the Troy website thing was grubby, and certainly doesn’t reflect well on those who did it. Carpenter killed it for the simple reason that it looked very crook. Surprising that a slick well funded machine like the ALP would make such a stupid mistake. And I’m sure that the LIBS would swap what they get from the 500 club quite happily for what the unions hand over to the ALP in money and personnel.
Appears McCain may have chosen Sarah Palin the 44 year old female Governor of Alaska as his VP.
Sorry William for it not being aussie news
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26454655
Her staff advised the council that she could not sign off her own property, it was up to the Heritage Council to reapply for interim listing or seek the necessary advice - the Council did nothing.
Michelle Roberts on Perth Now.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24264239-948,00.html
248 Buster - It doesn’t look quite as tacky as Troy though.
This Westpoll in #208 of 2 seats seems to have to 2 big weakness’s making its credibility shakey
First they did not disclose how many they polled , and even if 400 is not sufficent
Secondly re Morley , they ar showing Britza 51/49 , yet only 2.5% ahead on Primarys suggesting Britza mwinning an unlikely majority of dumped former Labor Minister John D’Orazio’s prefs , whose in 3rd place…and still leaving almost a further 15% in a combined 4th category (again unlikely) , which additionaly reinforces too small a poll sample for assessment
Not sure th Pols help info either way
Also there is no provision under the legislation as far as I can see that covers heritage listings where the Minister has a pecuniary interest in the property being listed.
Labor was smart with the Troy Buswell website… though I think the strategy was stolen from the West Wing… the Episode (64 I think - season 3) where Sam was baited by the republicans with a negative advert that received heaps of free press due to a free kick from him….
you’re not listening, are you Buster.
If Roberts wanted to avoid heritage listing in the long term she had no chance - the property would have been interim Heritage relisted with the Heritage Council eventually in the short to medium term, if not sooner.
If she wanted to profit from it being off the Register because of her “inaction” her only options would have been immediate demolition or to place it on the market for quick sale. Obviously the former did not occur and there is no suggestion that she pursued the latter.
Had she applied for a demolition permit or had an offer been received on it the local council would be immediately put on notice due to usual and even rudimentary enquiry and the demolition refused and the potential purchaser advised (if indeed anyone looking at that sort of property did not realise anyway) that the property had heritage issues. It would be on the local authority’s list of heritage properties in any event.
There is not, on any objective or half rational assessment, any possibility of her having anything to gain by not formalizing the listing, and to the contrary, had she done so, she would have been enmeshed in a classic conflict of interest emboglio.
All indications are that she acted entirely appropriately, on sound advice, and that Porter, Barnett and the rest of the Liberal dirt brigade have sprung into action in a deliberate exercise of smear by innuendo.
Sleaze bags all.
Embroglio.
And now that it’s on Perth Now, watch the usual subjects say the usual things about how evil it is etc, another nail in the coffin etc.
Reading Fulvio’s #256 concise 4 choises available , one that was chosen was only appropriate governance option , otherwise it was a no win governance issue And 5th one of ‘delegating’ would hav been worse with Liberals innuendo of being ‘cute’ to give a inappropriare advantage
From the Parliament Code Of Conduct.
http://parliament.wa.gov.au/web/webpages.nsf/WebFiles/LA+Code+of+Conduct+for+Members/$FILE/Code+of+Conduct+for+Members.pdf
I’m pretty sure by informing the Heritage Council why she was unable to sign of the Permanent Listing constitutes a disclosure of the Conflict of Interest.
Van Onselens latest piece of crappy loaded journalism
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24264490-5006789,00.html
Women voters to deliver for Labor
t
Peter van Onselen | August 30, 2008
AS things stand one week from polling day, Labor will win the West Australian election with a narrow majority, probably of no more than five seats. But it could be a long night next Saturday, as commentators and politicians alike try to make sense of the close results as they are posted in the tally room.
The Liberal Party is not without a chance. But the final week of the campaign would not only have to go its way, Labor would need to stumble. Short of startling Corruption and Crime Commission reports, that is unlikely.
The order has gone out for ministers to cut back their media commitments, leaving it to the Premier to act as the face of the party.
This is the first election since Labor introduced one-vote-one-value legislative reforms. Without those reforms, it is unlikely it would win a third term in office.
The closeness of this election could not have been predicted a month ago…
Wow, great angle Libs….. something about some property and conflicts of interest that were actually disclosed….hey, did I mention the alternative treasurer is a creepy chair sniffer?
So you should be. This is the WA election thread.
New thread.