A bizarre set of results today from Westpoll, the headline figure showing Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred from primary vote figures of Labor 42 per cent, Liberal 35 per cent, Nationals 7 per cent and Greens 10 per cent. Alan Carpenter leads Colin Barnett as preferred leader 51 per cent to 28 per cent. If you believe the Westpoll results, you must conclude that Troy Buswell’s departure has been an unmitigated disaster for the Liberals, sending them from a 51-49 lead to a 50.2-49.8 deficit at the start of campaign to the fiasco indicated by the current figures. Stranger still are two individual seat polls. The Liberals are apparently set to seize the unwinnable seat of Morley, where they lead 51-49 from primary votes of 38 per cent for stop-gap Liberal candidate Ian Britza, 35.5 per cent for Labor’s Reece Whitby and 12 per cent for independent incumbent John D’Orazio. The point of this was to assess D’Orazio’s chances of retaining the seat after breaking with the ALP, and they were obviously not expecting such a result. In Nedlands, independent member Sue Walker languishes on 16 per cent compared with 47.5 per cent for Liberal candidate Bill Marmion and 23 per cent Labor’s Colin Cochrane. No sample size is provided for any of the three polls – we can guess the main poll was about 400, in keeping with the usual Westpoll practice.
UPDATE: Reader SeanofPerth reports a Galaxy poll of 800 voters in tomorrow’s Sunday Times shows the Liberals 51-49 ahead. This would be Galaxy’s first ever poll of Western Australian voting intention, which you can make something of if you like. The Liberal-Nationals vote is 46 per cent against 39 per cent for Labor. Report here; further results here.
245 Comments
Crazy!
Labor beating Sue Walker in the western suburbs? Pffft. Mickey Mouse indeed… didn’t they come out with some amazingly wrong calls this time last election?
I’d be careful about calling Morley unwinnable (for the Libs), by the way. Labor only picked up Ballajura in 2001, and the Liberal there before was a minister. It’s unlikely but it could happen. (Not at this election… maybe in 2013?)
No, Libs beating Sue Walker….
I meant on the primary vote… 23% for an unknown Labor candidate vs 16% for the conservative, well-known sitting member. It doesn’t sound credible to me.
Oh, I see what you mean, Labor having more first preference votes than Walker.
I think the Labor vote is pretty much what Labor could expect to poll, and in line with their vote in that electorate in the past.
What it does show is the deep divisions and bitterness in the Conservative vote, and the fact that in Liberal heartland shafting the party is not smart politics.
On another point, if this Westpoll is even remotely close to the mark, Liz Constable will be feeling pretty sick over losing her virginity as an independent by getting into bed with Barnett.
Yeah, the Labor and Greens votes both sound OK on face value. It’s the two conservatives that stick out… Walker 16% vs Marmion 47.5%. If people in the western suburbs just blindly vote for the Liberals like that, Liz Constable wouldn’t have been in parliament as long as she has. I reckon it’s just the West looking for a result they want. (Subiaco Post likes Walker, by the way, and that paper’s probably more influential out there.)
Bird, you have to bear in mind that Constable has always had an aura of stability and common sense, and left the Liberal party on a point of principle at a time when the Libs were travelling reasonably well (comparatively).
Walker on the other hand has been portrayed in the press as a fruitcake, and what she has been reported as saying lately has done little to dissuade that perception.
Constable has always been considered by the Liberals as “one of our own” even if technically not a party member. She is less of a threat to them, as she has shown to be the case by this excellent little adventure on her part, whereas Walker’s bitterness is seen by Liberal supporters as having dangerous ramifications.
But in the end, who really knows?
Re Nedlands: margin of error 5 per cent. Might even be a sample of 200, in which case 7 per cent. So it could just as easily be Marmion 42 per cent, Walker 21 per cent and Labor 19 per cent. Whether or not she wins from there depends on how many Greens voters (12 per cent according to the survey) break with the how-to-vote card and put Walker ahead of Labor. By giving Labor second preference, the Greens have perversely given the Liberals a huge boost. I’m not writing Walker off, but this has at least convinced me to tip Nedlands for the Liberals when I announce my predictions early next week.
The predictions are returning? Good to hear!
Given that she originally aspired to be the Liberal member for Floreat, I’m not sure Constable was that pure to begin with.
Here’s the explanation of the marginal polls from Robert Taylor.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=94996
Roughly translated it is saying that the Liberals are still way ahead in the marginal seats as revealed in the last Westpoll and the leaked Labor Polling from last Thursday week.
Labor needs to be very careful that any gain to them is not just in the safe Labor seats as nearly every marginal poll released so far during the campaign has shown a surprising Liberal strength in the marginal seats.
Westpoll didn’t manage to get anywhere close to the results in marginal seats before the last election so I’d take any seat polling this time with a grain of salt.
LTEP, if I was Labor I wouldn’t be taking the chance on the polls being wrong. After all their own leaked polling was saying the same thing. The only other option if they can’t turn the marginals around this week is to pack up and move out of their offices.
If the underlying result is 54-46 Labor’s way, Labor wins crushingly.
Lord D but why has every scrap of marginal polling been so weak for Labor in Newspoll, Westpoll and their own internal polling?
Surprising that as of one minute ago the 2pp Westpoll result is not on the West’s website at all while the Walker Whitby results still have top billing.
Or is it?
steve@13. I don’t believe Labor would leak “bad” internal polling without an ulterior motive.
As I said in my original comment, I just don’t consider Westpoll’s seat polling to be reliable. On a large number of occasions their seat polling has been vastly different to the outcome. I recall one poll they said the Libs would win the seat 60-40 and Labor won 54-46, which is a huge difference. They polled several seats just prior to the last election, said the Libs would comfortably win all of them and then they won none of them, and went backwards in a few.
It’s not that I necessarily believe Labor can’t lose the election. I just don’t believe Westpoll.
Westpoll has shown itself to be very Mickey Mouse, let’s face it. I wouldn’t be taking any notice of it one way or the other. Any poll that can show Troy within a whisper of government while leader and Barnett way out in front (if he was leader) then can come up in 2 weeks with a poll showing Barnett a mile behind as leader is a poll not worth a crumpet. As for the marginal seat polling make that Mickey Mouse times 10.
steve - be careful what you wish for. You may want Labor out in WA, but how on earth will that fit in with the Liberal narrative that Labor federal and state governments = bad? We can’t possibly have a state Liberal government!
Or maybe we can, just for comparison. It would be nice for Liberals to take some responsibility for once instead of gaining a free ride, sniping away at all the governments because none of them are Liberal.
Yes, bring on the state Liberal government comparison, and make state Labor shine as the far lesser of two evils!
All Westpolls need to be taken with a grain of salt….in one sentence, ‘bull butter’!
I note that Perth Now are not taking comments on the so-called Heritage Listing conflict of interest. Strange to say the least.
And I note this comment from the West which confirms what Fulvio mentioned last night.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=95029
Score ALP 1 - Libs Nil
Carpenter supports Roberts.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/30/2350897.htm
Porter claims his first scalp -his own!
Carps pledges to double RSPA funding
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=95055
Carps pledges to give low income households rebates for energy efficiency stuff, greater water rebates etc etc
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=95086
sounds all a bit weird.
weirrrrrrrrrrrrd
Carpenter will continue the green theme by promising a $1000 rebate for hybrids and low energy vehichles 2mw
new galazy poll out in sunday times
51-49 to the LIBERALS
Labor on 39, ‘coalition’ on 46
Carps on 46% PP
Where did you hear that, Sean?
It’s on the PerthNow news site on Planet 3 on my mobile
The stories always come up there a few hours before they are up on the website
Talk of ‘coalition’ reminds me… I found the Labor HTV cards on their site. They’re preferencing the Nationals ahead of the Liberals in Moore and Blackwood-Stirling, so that makes it easier for the Nats to win both of those (particularly in Moore, where ALP prefs will probably decide it).
By the way, William - there’s a Ken Gunson at position 6 on the Blackwood-Stirling ticket, according to that HTV card but not on your page. He ran in South West (upper house) in 2005 as an independent.
BTW poll was 800 voters
Says result shows 3.3% swing to Libs
Says it will result in hung parliament
48% say health services have deteriorated under Labor
48% hasn’t shared the boom
40% believe law and order has deteriorated
38% believe education has suffered
60% believe Libs would improve health, education and laura norder
59% say labor doesnt deserve to win
69% say libs dont deserve to win
5% nats
9% greens
Van Onselen predicts Labor win with 5 seat majority
Good work - I’ve added news of it to this post.
Well, we’ll see how good Galaxy is now. It’ll only take 7 days to find out.
My guess is that Galaxy will come out with a late swing to Labor later this week.
Galaxy Poll now on Perth Now.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24267829-948,00.html
Galaxy chief David Briggs said Mr Barnett would be in trouble if Saturday’s election mirrored past voting trends in New South Wales and Queensland, where the public wasn’t happy with the incumbent, but didn’t have enough faith in the Opposition to vote them in.
“In other states they thought it was better to stick with the devil you know rather than change,” Mr Briggs said.
“They toyed with the idea of voting for the Opposition but pulled back at the last minute.
“That could be the factor that gets Labor over the line in WA.”
Is this Briggs having it both ways or not?
Does anyone rate the Nationals a chance in Eyre on Labor preferences?
Briggs has always made statements like that,trying to have an each way bet if his original result is wrong
And note how they highlighted the 800 polled compared to Westpoll, though they didn’t mention it by name - The Sunday Crimes is trying to out Liberal the West
If 54/46 Labors way is correct… then the libs cannot be ahead in marginal seats
they need to win from Labor it is just not possible
What is possible is seats such as Ocean Reef without a sitting member may be
won by the Libs
I stand by my earlier prediction of a probable ALP win
If 48% say health services have deteriorated under Labor does that mean 52% believe haven’t?
OK now it’s getting interesting.
But going back to the Westpoll - I think we are being a bit harsh here.
As William has previously piointed out, Westpoll are a reputable and competent research company but are limited by small sample sizes. Which means their figures will fluctuate more than other polls.
However, I think their 2PP estimate is being very generous to Labor. The only way they could get a 2PP of 54-46 from their data is to allocate over 50% of “other parties/independents” to Labor. But in the last state election they went about 75-25 to the Libs.
Using preference flows from last election 2pp comes out around 52-48 to Labor.
Of course, that still gets Labor a win. However, I am also aware of pollling (which may be released in the next couple of days) which shows a 2pp around 50/50.
The other interesting factor is that the “don’t knows” is higher than usual at this point of the campaign. There is a substantial proportion of voters still to make up their mind.
Yep, love the selected quoting of the figures to highlight the negatives, and nothing on Barnett’s approval rating either.
Something is very fishy here.
If I recall correctly, didn’t the Westpoll on Election day 2005 predict 50/50 ?
It’s got Winston up and running.
Actually, according to Antony’s calculator a 3.3% swing to the Libs gives Labor 30 seats. A one seat majority.
Oh and I wonder if Glen will be describing the Galaxy Poll as “Bull Butter” ?
William, from the Fed election threads, I think you said that the West isn’t owned by News Ltd, but the Sunday Times is. If that’s the case, this is probably the final Galaxy poll, as News Ltd simply won’t have a vehicle to publish Galaxy in. The final Westpoll and final WA Newspoll should be in next Sat election day.
I think William is referring to thefact this is the first Galxy Poll dedicated to WA Politics rather than a National Galaxy Poll.
“However, I am also aware of pollling (which may be released in the next couple of days) which shows a 2pp around 50/50.” That isn’t as good as the Galaxy finding for the Libs but, again, according Antony’s calculator a 50/50 would be a 2.3% swing to the Libs and gives Labor 30 seats. A one seat majority.
37 Michael:
Possibly, but I doubt it - Graham Jacobs is too popular in Esperance, and the Labor candidate down there has been utterly invisible (the Labor member for Murchison-Eyre was John Bowler, and he’s not running in Eyre), so the Nats would have to get a similar vote as Jacobs rather than rely on their preferences. Not likely. I’d say the Nats have a better chance in Kalgoorlie than Eyre, as there’s no popular sitting member to deal with - that’ll be a very interesting four-way race.
I’m sure you are right Gary. But I wasn’t predicting a Liberal win. Just making some observations on polling results. Which suggest a close result. You are reading way too much into my comments.
Sunday Times Talking Up Brendan Grylls having the Balance of Power.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24267618-5008620,00.html
I think you misinterpreted my post Winston. I was just responding to your “now it is getting interesting” comment with the “It’s got Winston up and running.”
The rest of that post was just an observation on the Galaxy finding of a hung parliament.
Isn’t it getting interesting GB?
51 Frank - I’m not sure this talk is good for the opposition. People don’t want unstable government. It just might send a few back to the government.
How can 51/49 to the Liberals end up in a hung parliament? Is there a gerrymander over there?
Also, have either or both of the parties had their official election launches yet?
53 winston - I don’t recall saying it wasn’t.
And GB, I don’t think that anyone here could misinterpret your posts. It’s always very clear wher you stand.
Libs had theirs last Sunday, ALP Tomorrow (I’ll be there and will give an on the spot report :-))
Darn, the Libs have, Labor’s is tomorrow.
57 winston - don’t underestimate yourself Winston, everyone knows where you stand too. I’ll say this about misinterpreting my post, you managed it.
Thanks Frank and GB for that info.
Frank I’ll be particularly interested in the ALPs public transport policy.
Darn - according to Antony Green’s calculator the Lib/Nats need 51.4% to have a one seat majority with the help of two conservative independents.
Darn - they’re assuming the Liberals and Nationals to be in coalition, which they’re not; there’s also a few conservative independents. All of those would probably support a Liberal government if they hold the balance, but the Liberals are unlikely to get enough seats for a majority (that’s 30; they’ve currently got 15 notionally, including one which may fall to the Nats), hence the talk of minority govt.
Thanks GB. Looks like they’ve got a pretty big task.
Thanks Bird (63). Sounds a bit like a dog’s breakfast.
I must say that when we had a minority ALP govt here in Victoria a few years back, it was one of the best governments we’ve had. I think the real trick in politics (for the electorate anyway) is to make sure the bastards don’t become too complacent and arrogant.
Whichever way it goes over there next Saturday, it looks like you will achieve that end.
Westpoll Story re 17 seat Majority is still on their ste under Breaking News, but it’s not in the WA News section.
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=510714
Sunday Times Editorial.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24266941-5005374,00.html
frank i will be at the launch also, how can i spot you?
yes, in retrospect that sunday times galaxy poll is totally loaded, which is unusual, cos joe spagnolo, despite his lack of journalistic talent is usually quite balanced.
In 2005 the sunday times predicted either a minority liberal government or a one seat labor government. they did endorse labor, though either they will endorse labor again or they will remain neutral, i dont think they could seriously endorse barnett without looking stupid.
You missed the important bit Frank:
They backed Labor in 2005 as well, with rather more enthusiasm. The West too backed Labor last time, but I wouldn’t put money on them doing so again.
RE 67
So it seems the ST endorsed the return of the Labor govt, even though the article was completely loaded.
I’ll be in the Wheelchair with Beard, Glasses, a Cap and a Vest with Radio Receiver
That’s because the previous editor was actually quite balanced in his coverage of things political and the current editor, Sam Weir is from a News Ltd paper in the east.
William
There’s no way the West will endorse Barnett. You have probably noticed you could probably say they have been pro-Labor in the last two days. They’ve realised Barnett is a dud.
The West will probably grudgingly endorse Labor as they did last time (they only said incumbent lol they didnt mention the L word), however theres a chance they will remain neutral and call both partys crap
Two factors have decided the reason why The West have dumped on Barnett.
Tax Cuts - and the way Barnett make the half-hearted promise, “subject to an audit”
Retail Trading Hours - Labor actually promised something, Barnett only said he’d “consider it”.
Hmm, just saw the ALP Election “ad” on the ABC which was presented by Mark McGowan, instead of the Premier.
yeah send in the clowns to overcome Carps arrogance. *rolls her eyes*
what did he have to say Frank?
Labor good - libs crap. unreliable. disorganised. unready to govern. He was right of course but would have said it even if he wasn’t.
Don’t Trust Barnett because of inexperience, disunity in opposition plus what Labor has promised, all drab talking head behind a desk, as per the ABC charter. Think it went for 5 minutes, which is dictated by election result.
Actually the “announcements” are here.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/partyannouncements/
Actually it’s 3 minutes per major party, and 10 minutes for the Party Launch on TV, and 10 Minute radio spots.
Fact sheet here.
http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/documents/election_campaigns.pdf
Quick question, what’s the story with Graham Giffard and Vince Catania’s upper house seats if they win their lower house seat. does the next person on the ticket only get 6 months in power until the new Legislative Council is Sworn in ?
Yes - I think it should have already happened. A similar thing happened in 2005 when Jim Scott (Greens) quit his upper house seat in South Metro to run in Fremantle against Jim McGinty. Lynn McLaren was #2 on the Greens ticket from 2001, so she spent a few months in the upper house. She didn’t win in that election (neither did Scott), so that’s all she got.
Carpenter is gooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnneeeeeeee …
“I’ll be in the Wheelchair with Beard, Glasses, a Cap and a Vest with Radio Receiver ”
No pink carnation?
Be interesting to see what happens after the election on both labor and liberal side.
If libs lose and lose badly do you think there will be moves for a LNP in WA.
Have just gotten our first HTV cards (ALP) here in Balcatta. John Kobelke will benefit -not that he really needs to- from a great donkey-vote, with himself in the # 1 ballot spot, and the Libs’ Hatton last of five. I haven’t seen the Libs’ HTV yet, but my guess is they’ll just recommend a reverse of the ALP’s HTV.
Interesting that Barnett was in Kalgoorlie throwing cash around like a drunken sailor.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wa2008/kalgoorlie.htm
I think he will give much away about where he is concerned enough to visit this week.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=95097
Rod at 82
A LNP in WA? No way I can see it. They hate each other but the Nats would allow the Libs to govern as a minority government and boy would the Libs hate having to do that!
Grylls has done the right thing for the Nats in making them a true rural independent party. They can only ever win 3 - 7 seats. Their interests are better served by sucking resources out through independence rather than following the joint party line.
Liz Constable has been spotted campaigning in Mt Lawley - shock win for the Libs there?
86 Antony Green thinks this is one to watch and after reading his summary you can see why. I don’t think there’s any surprise she is campaigning there is there?
45
Frank Calabrese
Frank it is far less bull butter than a poll of 400, a poll of 800 carries more weight in my book and is far closer to the mark, which is that it will be a close race.
Had Colin just stayed the leader after his Canal of an election in 2005 the ALP would be heading for wipeout territory, if the Libs dont win this election they have only themselves to blame, the ALP dont deserve to win but the Opposition hasnt given the people of WA great confidence in their ability to lead after making Smelling of Troy leader of the Party.
Still, if the people want a protest vote and do so in large numbers it could pull off a fluke victory for the Libs.
Thanks Michael
“Their interests are better served by sucking resources out through independence”
How far do they have to go before they attract the interest of the CCC in asking or demanding extra funding to their electorates for support.
Seems a hard election to call, but labor is expected to scrape back in, if they do Barnett is gone as leader and they have to find a new direction. Should be 4 years to the ext one and on the meantime the LNP in QLD would have been assessed by the electorate.
Likewise Family First who libs are joining as they consider the libs party not conservative enough anymore.
If the lib primary vote suffers then they will really need to look at where they are going.
Careful what you wish for…
A Barnett premiership would gift Rudd three or four WA seats in 2010.
I read Carps also promised to build a tram line down Alexander drive at the campaign launch. Why would they spend that kind of money unless Mount Lawley was in play? I think it may be a roughie. Historically, the seat was always a fairly safe Liberal seat (George Cash, Ray O’Connor etc).
Labor still very short odds to win. Prices suggest a greater than 70% probability.
http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/20929/20930/44843/West+Australian+State+Election
Two weekend’s before the Federal Election, bookmaker’s prices were
suggesting the average probability of an ALP win at around 70%.
In the last weekend before the election the ALP’s win probability had increased to over 80%.
Saw the ad Frank, Very wooden. Glad I’m a Queenslander!
91
bryce - If those 3 or 4 seats didnt swing to Labor when the Coalition was getting wiped out elsewhere in Australia and when the Tories were on the nose, the ALP dont have a hope in hell of achieving such a gain in 2010, they’ll be lucky to win anything i suspect, regardless of whether Colin is Premier.
Light rail down Alexander Drive/Fitzgerald Street into the City is a good investment. Hopefully it will be the start of a larger inner city network.
Any more Public Transport in Perth’s woefully serviced market is a good thing.
interesting the train to Ellenbrook, heavy rail for Swan Hills indeed, Swan Hills clearly is in play but not locked down either way.
Well, I wasn’t too far wrong when I guessed the big $ Labor item would be the Thornlie-Jandakot line…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/31/2351166.htm
This is the sorta thing I want to see more details on… where they’re gonna run it, for example. (I can’t see an obvious place for a rail corridor that doesn’t involve a lot of tunneling.) Sounds good though. This, the Butler extension of the northern line, and a bunch of other stuff (Armadale line to Byford, airport line, northern line all the way to Yanchep) got announced a couple of months ago as a 20 year plan, so I guess this is the first wave.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=81669
Hi, does anyone have a link to the full version of the NewsPoll survey? They rang me on Friday as part of the survey, and I’d like to know the results - can’t see them in yesterday’s West or even on Patterson’s website, which still refers to a Carpenter vs Buswell preference as premier!
By the way, I received a thick, glossy, full colour 8 page brochure from Labor’s Mount Lawley candidate in my junk mail today. We’ve never seen so much campaigning in the area before!
Helen, did they say they were from Patterson? If so you mean Westpoll rather than Newspoll. If it was Newspoll who rang you, it would have been for a yet-to-be-published survey which will appear in The Australian in the next few days. Going on their past record though, I would expect Newspoll to do their polling during the coming week and publish it on Friday or Saturday.
Andos (97) - I’m a little confused. Is the light rail you mention for Alexander Drive in addition to the fast bus service down Alexander Drive mentioned in Bird’s post (99)?
Also can you tell me when the light rail project is supposed to commence. Hopefully it is not just part of some 20 year plan that will probably never come to anything.
Auto trams are like this
http://www.physorg.com/newman/gfx/news/2006/IVI_Autotram_tcm6-73012.jpg
I believe its to be completed within 3 years
Still waiting for official policy on the Labor website
Hi William, yes, it was Patterson, so it would have been Westpoll. It was very brief, asking whether I’d vote for Labor or Liberal, whether I’d prefer Carpenter or Barnett as Premier, and who I’d vote for in my electorate (which they named). I think that was it.
Carpenters speech is up
http://www.visionwa.org.au/policy/carpenterspeech2008.pdf
Westpoll graphic
Galaxy graphic
I don’t get it. Health - Who will make it better? Under Labor 50%, Under Libs 59%
What the …?
Gary it is a distortion, the complete lies and fabrications of the West, along with their picking on extreme cases has created an image that is false and unfair to the underlying reality.
It’s strange you should say that Jasmine, I was about to write something similar. I really have my doubts about Galaxy I must say. I’m open to change if they prove to be correct but this graphic and the way the poll has been used by the paper doesn’t fill me with confidence they will be. This is just being used for effect, to get the desired result IMHO.
the galaxy was a load of huff
the sunday times positively hates the carpenter government, they haven’t gotten over their silly little ‘raid”
they used to be quite balanced, but it all came undone when the new editor (sam weir?) came in, he’s utterly useless, and a paul armstrong wannabe
In that Galaxy poll, it has ALP 39 Libs 41, Nats 5 for voting intention. Out of 800 people sampled, I wonder a few things. Were those 800 evenly spread across the electorates? If so, that’s 800/59 ~ 13.5 people per electorate… hardly scientific. Plus, if the sampling included country seats (particularly Moore, Blackwood-Stirling, Eyre and Kalgoorlie), it isn’t smart to add 41 and 5 to get 46 for a combined Lib/Nat vote - anywhere Libs and Nats are running against each other, either the Lib or Nat figure won’t count, so the true Lib/Nat figure would be lower.
Meanwhile, if this sampling was just within Perth metro area, why include the Nationals? Whichever way I look at it, it’s odd.
I’ve just read Carpenter’s campaign speech and I’d vote for him for sure if I lived in WA. If you West Aussies ever want to swap your Labor government for our mob here in Victoria just let us know.
Bird, you could ask those questions about any poll. No doubt they targeted a representative sample, and if successful their results should tell us the overall statewide vote within a 3.5 per cent margin of error. That covers all the poll results we’ve been hearing about except Westpoll, which itself had a margin of error of about 5 per cent. If you’re not comfortable adding the Liberals’ primary vote to the Nationals, skip to the 2PP where you don’t get that problem.
I don’t mind our Labor government in Victoria - each to his own I suppose.
That was a very good speech by Carpenter.
yeah you can say many bad things about Carpenter, but he is a great performer.
Just out of interest, how many people here are Labor supporters? If I’m not mistaken I seem to detect a slight leaning towards the left…
he is the best premier in the country, i cant think of anyone close
Ok,
Launch Report
First of all, this site is a bible for quite a few candidates I spoke to, in particular the Candidates for Morley & West Swan, and Reece’s Campaign Manager sometimes posts here under a nom de plume.
Now down to the juicy bits, as reported Public Transport is the big winner, as well as the environment. I was in the front row in the aisle and shook the Premier’s Hand :-), Carps did a great speech, and I enjoyed the reference to Mike Nahan and his Nuclear Waste proposal, plus the fact the Premier made him “Minister for Waste Dispoal” and Norman Moore “Minister for Uranium”
Today’s Announcements have starved the libs of any media oxygen and make Barnetts promise of up to $150 per seniors look like loose change.
I also overheard the candidate for Bunbury saying that he saw John Castrilli and the other South West Libs at the Football yesterday and quote “they were cryin in their beers” - which means that the South West is in trouble for the Libs.
All in all a great day and Roll on saturday
I see Verity James is doing the voiceovers on the Greens ads.
WB: not surprising Vertiy James is doing Greens ads… during the late 1990s as an interviewer she out greened the Greens!
I noticed the Greens ad. I can’t help thinking the timing is bad, as their ‘vote for us for renewables rather than nukes’ line appeared 10-15 minutes after news reports of Carpenter saying the same thing at the launch.
Just putting together a crack team for The Worst of Perth’s live full day election coverage next week.
http://theworstofperth.com/2008/08/31/state-election-live-and-worst/
Frank Calabrese, I’d have liked to include you as well, but you have already indicated you will be at a Party party. Have replaced you with Porn advice blogger Johnny “Young White Lesbians” Scrotum.
Saw Verity at a comedy event I performed at once. She appeared somewhat maggoted, so may have turned a green colour later in the evening.
Oh and I asked Mark McGowan why he did the LAP announcement for the ABC - he explained they took half a day to shoot, and they couldn’t afford to lose Carpenter for half a day shooting the announcement.
that should be ALP of course
Two ALP fliers in the mailbox today, Graham Giffard Trail Bike Strategy, and an ALP flyer NOT authorised by Bill Johnston, but a very good doublesider called “Welcome to the Liberal Boys Club”.
Will scan it in shortly and send it to William to Post.
Headline on the Galaxy graphic is hilarious - “Your Brutal Report Card …” !?!?
But it is understandable that some might be confused by the figures presented. The problem is we don’t know the questions asked. The pie charts and the figures below are obviously the results of different questions. But we don’t know what those questions were - and we should.
There are international guidelines for the publication of opinion polls - see http://www.esomar.org (the guidelines on public opinion polls are actually very readable and very informative as a primer on opinion polls) - which include an obligation to publish basic information about the sampling, survey methodology and the questions asked.
It doesn’t seem that either Galaxy or Westpoll have reported the questions asked (although it may have been printed elsewhere in the article). Now this may be more the fault of the media - but for the sake of their credibility and professional standing the polling companies should be insisting on it.
That flier you sent Frank. I say tool shed rather than boys club.
http://theworstofperth.com/2008/08/29/punp-the-stump-election-08/
I find it very strange that Westpoll only highlights the seats of Morley and Nedlands, where there is a prominent Independent candidate standing. What about other seats, especially where it is a new seat with multiple non-ALP or Liberal candidates. Westpoll polled me, but I cannot find any mention of my electorate in the Westpoll results - why hasn’t the West reported on or published the full results?
Helen,
Westpoll apparently conducted a statewide poll and 2 separate polls - in Morley and Nedlands. This was most likely at the request of The West i.e their client.
It would seem you were interviewed a part of the statewide poll.
Would be very interesting times if we have a Lib minority govt needing support of the Nats in the lower house and the Greens having balance of power in the upper house. Forget about 4 year terms, we could be back to the polls next year!
I haven’t had any flyers from anybody to date - but I am the Greens candidate!
An independent (who resigned from the Libs the day nominations closed) is the most active campaigner with large posters on trailers and a large ad in the local paper. Wonder if he is funding it all himself or where is the money coming from? Has been a safe Lib seat but the incumbent member is not running this time.
Labor “boys’ club” flier courtesy of Frank:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/liberalboysclub1.jpg
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/liberalboysclub2.jpg
ALP Transport Policy announced Today.
http://www.visionwa.org.au/policy/newdirectionpolicy310808.pdf
William, Did you record tonight’s 7 News, apparently I’m in the Launch story. Can you please Youtube it ?
Alas no, Frank.
Insiders on the WA Election.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200808/r287606_1227259.asx
that insiders what absolutely shocking
its clearly a bunch of people who know nothing about WA wishing for a Liberal win
And what an idiot Glen Milne is “haven’t spent anything on infrastructure or education” wtf???? how does $26.1b sound?
was absolutely shocking*
Barnett still insisting Uranium Mining is on the cards.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/uranium-mining-in-wa-still-on-the-cards-barnett-20080831-46b1.html
hi rossco was the seat you are refering to carine safe lib 7% rumors have it he is in trouble against the independent
I love how The West under reported the crowd - it was 480, got it straight from Bill Johnston’s mouth
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=95140
Re Rossco and Southernboy: is the independent you are referring to Bill Stewart (long-time local councillor Bill Stewart) or Wayne Thompson?
Didn’t Labor promise to legislate on Uranium mining (I think it was Gallop) last time too? I’d be surprised if their recent environmental announcements were anything more than an attempt to keep a few percent of voters that were considering switching to the Greens - the backlash from the early announcement that couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Barnett.
They’ll forget them as soon as they win no doubt. At any rate, there’s a risk that they may face an upper house that will stop any of this progressing if they’re too successful in winning (back?) the green vote. They’ll need a Greens balance of power.
Good luck to the ALP trying to get anything done with a Libs/Nats/Dan Sullivan Legislative Council…
They can get it through before the changeover to the new upper house in May if they can get the support of Shelley Archer - a big if, I imagine.
It should be noted that Karen Middleton was the only West Aussie on the Insiders panel, and she used to be Political Editor at The West., but really I feel sorry for the Eastern Staters who had to endure this load of uninformed crap, if you needed local experts, get Peter Van Onsolon for heaven’s sake
I am but a humble NSW resident but it will be interesting (if the poll turns out badly for Labor) if the Labor campaign genius rhetoric gets retired.
William when will you be publishing your predictions?
Trust me, Labor will win this election and they will do well
All this talk of tiny majorities and minority governments is bullcrap. Everybody was saying it last time, even Peter Kennedy from the ABC predicted a minority government in 2005
I was very disappointed in the ABC’s coverage of the launch, which like 7 focussed on the fact that the Transport plans arre targetrting to 3 marginal Labor seats.
Oh and EVERY ad break on Ch 7 in the last hour has been a Liberal Ad ?
147 Edward - What on earth are you on about? What rhetoric and by whom?
ABCs wasnt too bad, but it was very close minded, much like the rest of the WA media
It’s quite apparent in planning circles that the north east of the city, which has lots of activity centres and capacity for high density is woefull underserviced by public transport - you dont spend $100m on safe Labor seats just for the fun of it, it’s a good planning outcome
Channels 10 coverages was positively woeful, very very brief segment on launch and a full story on colin barnetts silly pensioner plan
Nope - she said she’ll block it.
http://news.theage.com.au/national/wa-parties-battle-over-uranium-mining-20080826-42tc.html
Thanks Bird.
Ahh with the Boy Band Candidate
It was a silly move by the libs to release ANYTHING major today, as the Public Transport Policy announcement today became the Media Narrative, and would’ve lead Radio News for most of the day.
Oh and speaking of media types, saw Peter Kennedy, Robert Taylor and Geof Parry, and I note that the ABC tonight showed the LIberal Campaign Launch, and on Monday & Tuesday will be showing onw ALP and one Lib 3 minute announcement. I’m assuming with such a short campaign, the ALP policy launch would not have been ready before the Electronic Media Blackout on Wednesday.
I agree SeanofPerth - Carps to romp it in - quite apart from everything else, people do not want GM crops or uranium
Quite possibly one of the worst articles to come out the australian…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24271843-5006789,00.html
What is this idiot on about?
Apparently the fact that Labor people dont wear stupid glitter hats means something is up
God that is such terrible journalism, was she even there? she certainly misread the mood
It was late because they were still processing the name tags at 9.59am.
And so the OO prefer Style over substance.
Well, at least she got the numbers about right…
Nope, the offical figure was 480, as I noted before, I’ll bet the Libs never got Morning Tea afterwards with the yummy muffins
And Vanessa Amorosi isn’t “Rock” Music, especially that produced by Mark Holden 
And this was the song Alan Entered the room to
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=J39WUUSWm4w
Frank, I hate to say it, but you are starting to quibble….
And when the choice of parties to vote for depends on the quality of their morning team and head banging music, I’ll move to Siberia, where the tea might be bad, but I can avoid the music.
And here is Amanda’s other story on the Launch.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24271844-5006789,00.html
West watch.
Page one: “I dare Premier to dump me: Roberts”. Michelle Roberts says the Labor caucus and not Alan Carpenter will determine the cabinet.
Inside Cover: A photo shows Ainslie Gatt, the Liberal candidate for Maylands, in bed with four other comely young lasses. This was taken at the home of “Raunchy Promotions boss Steve Zielinski, who was holding a cocktail party to celebrte 28 years in business”.
Page five: “Crash reignites P-plate ban row”.
Page six: Robert Taylor’s Campaign Sketch notes Labor’s low-key approach at yesterday’s launch. Smaller items on Liberal refusal to submit costings to Treasury and Liberal efforts to keep the Michelle Roberts heritage properties affair alive.
Page seven: Main article on Labor launch by Robert Taylor headlined “ALP hopes new train will put it on track to victory”, giving the kind of coverage Labor would have been hoping for. Side-column comment piece by Curtin University professor of sustainability Peter Newman on public transport, which might be rated pro-Labor in a broad sense. Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri calls for a light rail line through my part of the world, down Hampton Road from Fremantle to Cockburn.
Page nine: “Liberals pledge to create mental health minister”. Also includes coverage of Liberal promises targeting old folks. Smaller articles headed “Bans on three lobbyists to stay, says Barnett” and “Labor green credentials ‘window dressing’”, the latter quote coming from Greens MP Paul Llewellyn.
Page 20: Editorial critical of Labor health policy.
Page 22-23: Headline letter to editor critical of Labor uranium policy. Second letter says yay for the government. Three anti-government letters in “In Short”.
The article from the Australian is truly amazing and not in a good way. I agree she obviously was not there. The cheers went on for ages. And we clapped till our hands hurt. Particular during the GM nuclear points. We be great if some of the press covered the real details of the reduction in crime and the number of new schools opened in the ALP government as carpenter covered. But that is never going to happen with our press. We need another newspaper in this town so we can have some real journalism.
Is the Michelle Roberts stpry one of the stories on the right (long column) or it the big lead story?
God Roberts is useless, is she trying to kill herself off? Talk about a non team player
Big lead story, Sean.
Unless she’s still pissed off that the New Right are now impotent
Mind you neither Kobelkie, Ravlich, Roberts or Ripper were on stage, but sitting in front row. And I note they put poor old Reece Whitby at the back of the candidates on stage.
And I’m surprised Amanda O’Brien didn’t mention the Lib launch had personalised Bottled Water
re the Inside Cover story, that’ll really go well amongst the Women’s Vote, and perpuates the myth of the Libs being a “Boy’s Club”
Hmm, There goes the Liberal Support from Rio-Tinto and BHP Billiton
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24271510-643,00.html
“For example, why would they continue to receive a concessional royalty rate”
This is at odds with the fed libs stance on the concession Woodside enjoys on gas.
Are the WA libs trying to distance themselves from the feds?
For those who think that a simple merger will be the solution should the conservative rabble be beaten on Saturday, consider this:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24263012-5006786,00.html
165: “We need another newspaper in this town so we can have some real journalism.”
What? Journalism that perpetuates your own point of view?
Did we ever get to the bottom of which way Campbell Newman jumped?
As the most senior elected official of the Liberal Party, the fact he may not actually be in the Liberal Party anymore is an important development.
He didn’t seem too ecited by the prospect a few weeks ago, as reported here
Though his homepage now has the LNP logo.
Sean,
No, journalism that balances the single one-eyed paper that we suffer.
even the Australian, with a decided Lib bias, is mature enough to have columists like Phillip Adams to try to balance Milne and Albrechtsen
the West does not.
Melbourne has a left leaning Age balanced by a right leaning Herald
we do not
Well since we had the laughable Fairfax online experience, I’m not sure another paper would make much difference. Barnett must be spewing though that The West built him up then Teh Paul Murray started saying he was going to lose last week. It was their cheerleading that pulled him out of potential retirement.
This is an autotram:
http://www.hybridcarnews.org/entry/autotram-new-modular-hybrid-vehicle-concept-that-draws-power-from-energy-storage-system
On a slightly different subject from the last few posts:
I am now officially peeved with Carps. On Saturday, I received in the mail my applied-for postal vote (for Hillarys - I had forgotten to register my change of address :oops:). On the back page of AN OFFICIAL (WA Govt-issued) ELECTION PUBLICATION was Carps’ grim face, urging me to vote Labor.
Geez! Talk about abusing the levers of power!!! This has now switched me. For the first time EVER, I will be preferencing Libs ahead of ALP, and well does Carps deserve this kick in the teeth, by my reckoning.
*mutter**grrr*
179 Mathew - Good luck with Colin.
Gary Bruce #180
I’m not saying that Colin Barnett is much (or any) better. But surely that kind of behaviour needs to be punished?
That’s up to you Mathew, it’s a free country but if enough people think that way then it’s Colin here we come. From rabble to government in one easy lesson and as I say good luck with that.
Matthew, you should clarify exactly what you received. If you received official postal vote material, that is the ballot paper and return envelope, from the WAEC and it contained voting material for the Labor Party, that is an offence under the electoral act, and if it was sent to you like that by the WAEC, then that is a scandal that should be exposed.
If you received a postal vote application form and it contained Labor material, that’s OK because it was sent to you by the Labor Party. If it had been sent by the Liberal Party, it would have come with Liberal material. The postal vote application forms are sent out willy nilly by the political parties, and they have a return address to the party, who note your name, pass the form to the Electoral Commission to deal with the ballot papers, and then the party sends you its how to vote material. But it has been 20 years since postal vote application forms have been official documents that can only be provided by the Electoral Commission.
My advice is always to pre-poll vote rather than postal vote. Postal votes rely on the post and matching signatures on application form and voting envelope. In a close contest, parties can go to town trying to knock out postal votes and there are more grounds for them being rejected from the count. Pre-poll votes receive a lot less scrutiny, and they don’t involve any processing through political parties.
“If you received official postal vote material, that is the ballot paper and return envelope, from the WAEC and it contained voting material for the Labor Party, that is an offence under the electoral act…”
Antony, have there been any cases of this happening in previous state or federal elections and have parties been prosecuted?
“On the back page of AN OFFICIAL (WA Govt-issued) ELECTION PUBLICATION was Carps’ grim face, urging me to vote Labor.”
This reads like the postal vote was dual sided. Sorry, but I find it very very hard to believe that anything printed by the WAEC has any pro-Labor campaign message. Let alone a dual sided postal vote with the Premier on it. Please clarify quickly or withdraw what seems to be a serious allegation.
No, because the ballot papers come from the Electoral Commission, and if there is how to vote material inserted in with the ballot papers, then someone is tampering with the mail at the postal vote handling centre. There is no evidence of that ever happening. However, people get confused about whether they are receiving a postal vote or a postal vote application, and it nearly always turns out to be the application form that people are complaining about having receiving party material with. There is nothing illegal about parties sending out application forms as part of their party material.
Actually, what confuses people even more, the parties tend to send out the application forms with envelope labelling like ‘important election material’, which is obviously ambiguous and makes people think it comes from the electoral commission.
Peter Kennedy on 720 this morning with the Week in Politics.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/01/2351495.htm
There have been some comments re the West’s reversal of opinion. I think saying the Govt is a shoe in to be returned (which is probably more or less true) it the very best way to maximise Lib / Nat / anyone else vote. So it seems consistent to me.
And while I’m not sure the train to Ellenbrook is good policy, I’m pretty sure it is great politics and with the Libs coming out this morning (smelling a lot like they aren’t going to echo the policy) you have to expect Swan Hills was bought for approximately $850 million on the weekend.
ALP Promises Cheaper Public Transport.
Oh and the Libs will match the Building of the Ellenbrook line.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/01/2351877.htm
I joined the Australian Electoral Commission in 1981 and worked for them for about twenty years. When I first started, the practice of parties being involved in the postal voting process was almost unheard of (other than passing on any postal applications mistakenly sent to them rather than the AEC) and the AEC would have taken a very dim view of any such interference.
Times change and now both major parties are up to their eyeballs in sending out thousands upon thousands of applications whether people ask for them or not. The net result is a lot of confusion, a lot of duplicated applications and a lot of frustration for the AEC trying to make sure that all applications are received from the parties in time to make the cut-off point for processing and posting each day.
The parties claim of course that they are just trying to help the electors to have their vote, but out here in the real world we all know that is self serving bull shit. They are interfering because they both believe they can gain a political edge by doing so.
It has become a very expensive practice for the tax payers., as postal votes cost a lot more to process than a normal vote in a polling booth. A high percentage of those now applying for a postal vote do so for no other reason than that one or both of the major parties sent them an unsolicited application. The total number of postal votes issued per election has been climbing massively over the past ten to fifteen years and there is no sign that it is likely to plateau any time soon.
Just finally, I can assure everyone of two important things:
1. Only the AEC and equivalent state organisations actually issue the postal votes,
(The actual enveloping and posting of the ballot papers is usually outsourced these days - the wonders of privatisation - but it is carried out under very strict supervision).
2. It is totally illegal to include any voting material from the parties with the ballot papers.
Well Frank if you are right and the Libs will echo the Ellenbrook train it will be interesting in your parts.
And here is Barnett’s commitment to the Ellenbrook Spur.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/01/2351816.htm
Has anyone asked Mr Barnett if he intends to keep the new line (and all the others the Labor government has built) in public hands, or does he plan to flog it off at the first opportunity as all good liberals do?
Today Tonight Story on Alan Carpenter shown on the night of the Leaders Debate.
http://www.westtv.com.au/?vxSiteId=43c6a3c7-abf1-4c32-b98d-c27f8fa83360&vxChannel=Today%20Tonight&vxClipId=1416_WAU1426&vxBitrate=300
And for Balance, here is the Colin Barnett Story.
http://www.westtv.com.au/?vxSiteId=43c6a3c7-abf1-4c32-b98d-c27f8fa83360&vxChannel=Today%20Tonight&vxClipId=1416_WAU1433&vxBitrate=300
Thanks Frank,
I’d have say Mrs Carps is hot.
I’d have say Mrs Carps is hot.
And she looks better in real life
I must say the Carpenter Story had more light and shade considering he has a family, while the Barnetts looked like empty Nesters. And I liked the grab with Peter Dowding, which showed that like Reece Whitby, they both didn’t take sides when reporting State Politics - take note Print Media
Are we going to hear complaints from the press of “metooism” about Barnett over the Ellenbrook train?
Doubt it.
And the Free Seniors Travel, and the extra Nurses.
What hypocrites the Media are
Barnett Rules Out Workplace Agreements, no doubt spooked by the Unions WA TV ads, but note there is no IR policy.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/01/2352182.htm
there were some questions on an earlier thread regarding IR policy:
Barnett has today stated that the Libs will not re-introduce individual contracts, and adds a line that he considers IR to now be a Federal matter.
perhaps that explains why Julie Bishop declined to attend the Lib launch
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/01/2352182.htm
Frank - you beat me to the trigger
damn, you’re fast
200 Frank - that is a scare campaign waiting to happen. No IR policy, I don’t believe it.
And a perfect wedge to be applied federally by Julia Gillard, and locally by Carpenter - Will a Barnett Government still support a return to Workchoices.
A leopard doesnt change its spots…just like Barnett doesnt change his slime! Cant wait for those individual agreements during the Nuclear winter……let them eat “Yellow cake” said Barnett to the angry masses!
Barnett has just complained about a Labour ad the attacks his uranium policy
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/liberals-complain-about-labor-uranium-ad-20080901-46xe.html
Barnett said: “I saw the advertisement actually and it talked about where would you bury nuclear waste in Western Australia - you do not get nuclear waste from uranium mining, you get nuclear waste from nuclear power stations,” he said.
not true, Colin. There is plenty of radioactive waste in uranium tailings which is either contained in ponds or pumped underfground
Darn - you didn’t think your cheap shot at Libs being the party of privatisation would go unquestioned? Have you ever heard of a wonderful place called NSW and their current electricity situation?
Or maybe QANTAS, or even the CBA???
That is not to say that the Libs don’t privatise - but, hello, kettle will you accept a collect call from the pot?
As for committing to match government promises - that’s very much in the style of Opposition leaders everywhere - including the current Prime Minister eg see http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/why-rudd-says-me-too-again-and-again/2007/08/05/1186252546386.html
And here is the ad in question.
http://www.visionwa.org.au/video/TVP119.wmv
207 VPL - ever thought he may have been talking about the WA Libs and WA Labor seeing that we’re on this thread? What has WA Labor privatised?
Barnett can “consider” IR to be a federal issue all he likes, but until (unless) there is some kind of referral of powers, around a third of employees in WA will continue to be employed under State IR laws.
“As for committing to match government promises - that’s very much in the style of Opposition leaders everywhere - including the current Prime Minister.”
VPL, you really didn’t think you could get away with this piece of misrepresentation did you? No-one here was criticising the Libs for doing it, they were criticising the media for treating the Libs differently to how they treated Rudd. I bet even you now see it as clever politics whereas I bet you were criticising Rudd for doing it last year.
I note that the ABC’s TV coverage will be curtailed by the opening ceremony of the Paralympics at 9.50pm, despite it also being simulcast on ABC2.
If the result isn’t known by then, Pollbludgers will have to rely on ABC Radio, as the commercial channels aren’t doing ANY Election Night Coverage, bar I’m assuming some sort of News Update.
Well that’s a little dissappointing. Does anyone even watch/care about the paralympics? Surely the state election is somewhat more important?
Interesting to see the Libs proposing more funds for mental health services, particularly in the Indigenous area.
VPL (207)
I don’t agree that stating the truth is a cheap shot. Show me a Liberal politician and I’ll show you someone who’s just itching to get on with selling off everything that’s publicly owned - if there’s anything left. I admire Alan Carpenter for taking a strong stand against privatisation and regard him as being the best Labor premier in Australia at present.
You make a good point of course in referring to the privatisations done or proposed by other so-called Labor politicians. But it’s the Liberals who have an ideological commitment to privatisation for its own sake - not Labor. That’s what I was referring to.
For what it’s worth, my own view is that placing the whims of shareholders above all else, is not the best or most efficient way to run a society.
To clarify regarding my WAEC Postal Vote…
I had applied for a postal vote some time previously. I believe that what I received was a genuine postal vote form (but will check again, upon returning home) with Carps and his message to vote Labor on the back of the form.
Upon getting home (late) tonight, I will recheck it and clarify, possibly with a giant mea culpa if I have gotten it wrong on first impressions.
Sky Noos will be covering the election, if you have cable TV.
But all the Post election Parties only have Access to Free To Air TV.
218 - What a bummer. Mind you Frank you may not want to watch if it turns nasty.
GB,
Peddling misinformation again - 203
You would have been shot as an agent provocatuer in another less tolerant country.
Matthew @ 216
I haven’t applied for a postal vote, and don’t want one, but I got an application form anyway through the post, with ALP propaganda on the reverse.
I think the parties mass-mailshot voters with these things in the (in my view, misplaced) hope that people will be grateful to them. I expect this is what you have got; as Antony has pointed out, an actual postal ballot form with party material on it would be a serious offence, and one that would be certain to be detected and publicised. So, if only for reasons of self-interest, neither party would do this.
If I’m right, the fact that you have applied for a postal vote is coincidence; you would have got this application form anyway.
For the record, I think the practice of parties doing this is shoddy and should be stopped. Parties should not be allowed to associated themselves and their publicity with the mechanics of compiling the electoral register or casting votes, if only because it can give the impression that voting and voting rights are susceptible to some degree of party control or patronage, and this degrades public confidence in the electoral process.
Before you all get so upset about the ABC coming off air at 9:50, we normally go off-air at 10:30. All we’re doing is dropping the call of the board which takes up most of the last half hour. In this day of the internet, when we publish all of the elections results and with more detail on the internet, it’s not the most essential part of the coverage. We publish more detail of the Legislative Council on the internet as well, where we have almost nothing to say about it on air.
All counting should be over by 9:50. By 9pm, the new totals reported are usually down to a trickle. If the result isn’t clear by 9:50, it won’t be any clearer by 10:30. If it is absolutely line-ball, and neither leader has spoken, we can extend past 9:50, but it is not scheduled that way. But there has to be a good reason to go past that point, as all the satellite switching has to be changed to prevent the paralympics going to air automatically at 9:50. Programming a national network at that time of a Saturday takes a bit of organising.
FreoBloke (221)
Totally agree with your last para.
220 Edward - take a look at the posts before mine on that matter ESJ and get your facts straight.
The people’s court would lead you off to the execution cells quick smart GB. you are peddling lies and disinformation which you know to be untrue.
Gary,
ESJ never worries about facts. He is the Mata Hari of PB.
225 Edward - Not so ESJ. Supply me with their IR policy (the one Barnett says they haven’t got) and prove me wrong instead of trying to besmirch my character.
“Mr Barnett says the Liberal Party won’t be producing an I-R policy before the election but he says there will be no return of individual contracts.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/01/2352182.htm
Gary - did I kick your dog or something in a past life? Pointing out simple facts like 1) Privatisation is not limited to the Libs, and 2) Opposition leaders always go with ‘me too’ nowadays, seems to have rubbed you up the wrong way. Darn said ‘as ALL good Liberals do’. Even he/she didn’t take issue with whether it was a reference to State or Federal.
For the record I thought Rudd ran a smart and tight campaign and I certainly didn’t criticise him for his strategy. As for my position on privatisation - I believe government exists to ensure services are provided - not necessarily to provide them. That said, some things are better done by government, others not.
Now - on to tonight’s mailbag.
I received two flyers from the ALP. The “Liberal Boys Club” one and a “Bill Johnston - working for our community” one. As for the first - a) since Diedre Willmott technically withdrew she wasn’t ‘dumped’. b) I doubt any Libs would prefer ‘inexperienced and immature men to talented women’ but they have to work with what they’ve got. Of course, the Libs don’t have an entrenched affirmative action policy. c) The Libs have at least four former ministers in their front bench IIRC - that’s hardly lacking in experience. As for the second - I have absolutely no idea what, if any, local connection Bill Johnston has with the seat of Cannington. I have certainly never seen him involved with any local issues. I don’t even know if he lives in the seat. Can someone enlighten me as to his affinity with my electorate (other than, of course, the fact that it has a double digit margin for his entry into the Legislative Assembly?).
The Liberals don’t have an IR policy, as Barnett clearly states. 223 GB - you said you didn’t believe that there was no Liberal IR policy. Is there any proof or truth behind this remark or is it mere conjecture? I think that’s what ESJ was commenting upon at 220.
Oh - Online Opinion is running a survey on the election. Just got an email about it. They actually asked me to let people know so, here you go, this is the link:
http://polling.nationalforum.com.au/index.php?sid=66776&lang=en
Of course, with all the lefties here maybe I should keep it a bit quiet…
One thing that irks me - it keeps offering ‘Coalition’ as an option… what Coalition?
“Mr Barnett says the Liberal Party won’t be producing an I-R policy before the election but he says there will be no return of individual contracts.”
Barnett didn’t say he hasn’t got an IR policy just that he won’t be producing it.
Oh - while I’m here… my local paper carried a letter two weeks ago from a guy saying he’d called Mike Nahan about a local issue and his call hadn’t been returned a couple days later so he went to Tony McRae and he sorted his issue out straight away.
I wrote an email to Nick Sherry on 17 March 2008 as Minister for Superannuation re: my govt super. I just got his response today, a mere 5 1/2 months later or 168 days. Phew, the speed was overwhelming. On the upside he did include an apology about the delay
Anyone who want to provide me with the WA Libs IR policy please?
Leave out “who”.
Gary, they want to release it the Monday after the election. It would scare the horses if produced before the election.
Barnett doesn’t have an IR policy like John Howard didn’t have a GST policy in 1996.
Barnett must have one because it is scaring the daylights out of our NSW readers.
I can remember Salary-Anne Atkinson promising there would be no increase in the General Rate, too, during a Liberal campaign launch. Everyone assumed General Rates were not going to rise in the next Liberal budget. General Rates rose across the board, but not a very specific and inconsequential ‘The General Rate’.
235 steve - you’re probably right. As I said earlier this is a ready made scare campaign, whether they have one but won’t release it or they don’t have one at all. A stupid move on their part IMHO.
Gary the only thing scarier than a Liberal IR policy is a sneaky attempt to hide their IR policy till after the election. It is afterall only words on paper why hide behind this Federal Issue propaganda?
I think the distinction between having an IR policy and producing it is mere semantics. Obviously if elected the Liberals will have some sort of IR policy, but presumably it would be similar to the current situation otherwise they would announce it. Where’s this scare campaign stuff coming from? Hardly much to be scared about boys and girls!
In that case the Liberals would have no reason not to release their IR policy before the election would they?
Well, there probably is no real policy to accounce. They are unprepared, and haven’t the faintest idea what exactly they’re supposed to do.
241 Duke - “but presumably it would be similar to the current situation otherwise they would announce it.” A very BIG assumption there. The scare campaign stuff as you call it is what Labor wants to tar the Libs with. They’ve left a blank sheet for heaven sake. State Workchoices here we come.
New thread.