A bizarre set of results today from Westpoll, the headline figure showing Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred from primary vote figures of Labor 42 per cent, Liberal 35 per cent, Nationals 7 per cent and Greens 10 per cent. Alan Carpenter leads Colin Barnett as preferred leader 51 per cent to 28 per cent. If you believe the Westpoll results, you must conclude that Troy Buswell’s departure has been an unmitigated disaster for the Liberals, sending them from a 51-49 lead to a 50.2-49.8 deficit at the start of campaign to the fiasco indicated by the current figures. Stranger still are two individual seat polls. The Liberals are apparently set to seize the unwinnable seat of Morley, where they lead 51-49 from primary votes of 38 per cent for stop-gap Liberal candidate Ian Britza, 35.5 per cent for Labor’s Reece Whitby and 12 per cent for independent incumbent John D’Orazio. The point of this was to assess D’Orazio’s chances of retaining the seat after breaking with the ALP, and they were obviously not expecting such a result. In Nedlands, independent member Sue Walker languishes on 16 per cent compared with 47.5 per cent for Liberal candidate Bill Marmion and 23 per cent Labor’s Colin Cochrane. No sample size is provided for any of the three polls – we can guess the main poll was about 400, in keeping with the usual Westpoll practice.
UPDATE: Reader SeanofPerth reports a Galaxy poll of 800 voters in tomorrow’s Sunday Times shows the Liberals 51-49 ahead. This would be Galaxy’s first ever poll of Western Australian voting intention, which you can make something of if you like. The Liberal-Nationals vote is 46 per cent against 39 per cent for Labor. Report here; further results here.
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Sunday Times Talking Up Brendan Grylls having the Balance of Power.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24267618-5008620,00.html
I think you misinterpreted my post Winston. I was just responding to your “now it is getting interesting” comment with the “It’s got Winston up and running.”
The rest of that post was just an observation on the Galaxy finding of a hung parliament.
Isn’t it getting interesting GB?
51 Frank – I’m not sure this talk is good for the opposition. People don’t want unstable government. It just might send a few back to the government.
How can 51/49 to the Liberals end up in a hung parliament? Is there a gerrymander over there?
Also, have either or both of the parties had their official election launches yet?
53 winston – I don’t recall saying it wasn’t.
And GB, I don’t think that anyone here could misinterpret your posts. It’s always very clear wher you stand.
Libs had theirs last Sunday, ALP Tomorrow (I’ll be there and will give an on the spot report
)
Darn, the Libs have, Labor’s is tomorrow.
57 winston – don’t underestimate yourself Winston, everyone knows where you stand too. I’ll say this about misinterpreting my post, you managed it.
Thanks Frank and GB for that info.
Frank I’ll be particularly interested in the ALPs public transport policy.
Darn – according to Antony Green’s calculator the Lib/Nats need 51.4% to have a one seat majority with the help of two conservative independents.
Darn – they’re assuming the Liberals and Nationals to be in coalition, which they’re not; there’s also a few conservative independents. All of those would probably support a Liberal government if they hold the balance, but the Liberals are unlikely to get enough seats for a majority (that’s 30; they’ve currently got 15 notionally, including one which may fall to the Nats), hence the talk of minority govt.
Thanks GB. Looks like they’ve got a pretty big task.
Thanks Bird (63). Sounds a bit like a dog’s breakfast.
I must say that when we had a minority ALP govt here in Victoria a few years back, it was one of the best governments we’ve had. I think the real trick in politics (for the electorate anyway) is to make sure the bastards don’t become too complacent and arrogant.
Whichever way it goes over there next Saturday, it looks like you will achieve that end.
Westpoll Story re 17 seat Majority is still on their ste under Breaking News, but it’s not in the WA News section.
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=510714
Sunday Times Editorial.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24266941-5005374,00.html
frank i will be at the launch also, how can i spot you?
yes, in retrospect that sunday times galaxy poll is totally loaded, which is unusual, cos joe spagnolo, despite his lack of journalistic talent is usually quite balanced.
In 2005 the sunday times predicted either a minority liberal government or a one seat labor government. they did endorse labor, though either they will endorse labor again or they will remain neutral, i dont think they could seriously endorse barnett without looking stupid.
You missed the important bit Frank:
They backed Labor in 2005 as well, with rather more enthusiasm. The West too backed Labor last time, but I wouldn’t put money on them doing so again.
RE 67
So it seems the ST endorsed the return of the Labor govt, even though the article was completely loaded.
I’ll be in the Wheelchair with Beard, Glasses, a Cap and a Vest with Radio Receiver
That’s because the previous editor was actually quite balanced in his coverage of things political and the current editor, Sam Weir is from a News Ltd paper in the east.
William
There’s no way the West will endorse Barnett. You have probably noticed you could probably say they have been pro-Labor in the last two days. They’ve realised Barnett is a dud.
The West will probably grudgingly endorse Labor as they did last time (they only said incumbent lol they didnt mention the L word), however theres a chance they will remain neutral and call both partys crap
Two factors have decided the reason why The West have dumped on Barnett.
Tax Cuts – and the way Barnett make the half-hearted promise, “subject to an audit”
Retail Trading Hours – Labor actually promised something, Barnett only said he’d “consider it”.
Hmm, just saw the ALP Election “ad” on the ABC which was presented by Mark McGowan, instead of the Premier.
yeah send in the clowns to overcome Carps arrogance. *rolls her eyes*
what did he have to say Frank?
Labor good – libs crap. unreliable. disorganised. unready to govern. He was right of course but would have said it even if he wasn’t.
Don’t Trust Barnett because of inexperience, disunity in opposition plus what Labor has promised, all drab talking head behind a desk, as per the ABC charter. Think it went for 5 minutes, which is dictated by election result.
Actually the “announcements” are here.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/partyannouncements/
Actually it’s 3 minutes per major party, and 10 minutes for the Party Launch on TV, and 10 Minute radio spots.
Fact sheet here.
http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/documents/election_campaigns.pdf
Quick question, what’s the story with Graham Giffard and Vince Catania’s upper house seats if they win their lower house seat. does the next person on the ticket only get 6 months in power until the new Legislative Council is Sworn in ?
Yes – I think it should have already happened. A similar thing happened in 2005 when Jim Scott (Greens) quit his upper house seat in South Metro to run in Fremantle against Jim McGinty. Lynn McLaren was #2 on the Greens ticket from 2001, so she spent a few months in the upper house. She didn’t win in that election (neither did Scott), so that’s all she got.
Carpenter is gooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnneeeeeeee …
“I’ll be in the Wheelchair with Beard, Glasses, a Cap and a Vest with Radio Receiver ”
No pink carnation?
Be interesting to see what happens after the election on both labor and liberal side.
If libs lose and lose badly do you think there will be moves for a LNP in WA.
Have just gotten our first HTV cards (ALP) here in Balcatta. John Kobelke will benefit -not that he really needs to- from a great donkey-vote, with himself in the # 1 ballot spot, and the Libs’ Hatton last of five. I haven’t seen the Libs’ HTV yet, but my guess is they’ll just recommend a reverse of the ALP’s HTV.
Interesting that Barnett was in Kalgoorlie throwing cash around like a drunken sailor.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wa2008/kalgoorlie.htm
I think he will give much away about where he is concerned enough to visit this week.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=95097
Rod at 82
A LNP in WA? No way I can see it. They hate each other but the Nats would allow the Libs to govern as a minority government and boy would the Libs hate having to do that!
Grylls has done the right thing for the Nats in making them a true rural independent party. They can only ever win 3 – 7 seats. Their interests are better served by sucking resources out through independence rather than following the joint party line.
Liz Constable has been spotted campaigning in Mt Lawley – shock win for the Libs there?
86 Antony Green thinks this is one to watch and after reading his summary you can see why. I don’t think there’s any surprise she is campaigning there is there?
45
Frank Calabrese
Frank it is far less bull butter than a poll of 400, a poll of 800 carries more weight in my book and is far closer to the mark, which is that it will be a close race.
Had Colin just stayed the leader after his Canal of an election in 2005 the ALP would be heading for wipeout territory, if the Libs dont win this election they have only themselves to blame, the ALP dont deserve to win but the Opposition hasnt given the people of WA great confidence in their ability to lead after making Smelling of Troy leader of the Party.
Still, if the people want a protest vote and do so in large numbers it could pull off a fluke victory for the Libs.
Thanks Michael
“Their interests are better served by sucking resources out through independence”
How far do they have to go before they attract the interest of the CCC in asking or demanding extra funding to their electorates for support.
Seems a hard election to call, but labor is expected to scrape back in, if they do Barnett is gone as leader and they have to find a new direction. Should be 4 years to the ext one and on the meantime the LNP in QLD would have been assessed by the electorate.
Likewise Family First who libs are joining as they consider the libs party not conservative enough anymore.
If the lib primary vote suffers then they will really need to look at where they are going.
Careful what you wish for…
A Barnett premiership would gift Rudd three or four WA seats in 2010.
I read Carps also promised to build a tram line down Alexander drive at the campaign launch. Why would they spend that kind of money unless Mount Lawley was in play? I think it may be a roughie. Historically, the seat was always a fairly safe Liberal seat (George Cash, Ray O’Connor etc).
Labor still very short odds to win. Prices suggest a greater than 70% probability.
http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/20929/20930/44843/West+Australian+State+Election
Two weekend’s before the Federal Election, bookmaker’s prices were
suggesting the average probability of an ALP win at around 70%.
In the last weekend before the election the ALP’s win probability had increased to over 80%.
Saw the ad Frank, Very wooden. Glad I’m a Queenslander!
91
bryce – If those 3 or 4 seats didnt swing to Labor when the Coalition was getting wiped out elsewhere in Australia and when the Tories were on the nose, the ALP dont have a hope in hell of achieving such a gain in 2010, they’ll be lucky to win anything i suspect, regardless of whether Colin is Premier.
Light rail down Alexander Drive/Fitzgerald Street into the City is a good investment. Hopefully it will be the start of a larger inner city network.
Any more Public Transport in Perth’s woefully serviced market is a good thing.
interesting the train to Ellenbrook, heavy rail for Swan Hills indeed, Swan Hills clearly is in play but not locked down either way.
Well, I wasn’t too far wrong when I guessed the big $ Labor item would be the Thornlie-Jandakot line…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/31/2351166.htm
This is the sorta thing I want to see more details on… where they’re gonna run it, for example. (I can’t see an obvious place for a rail corridor that doesn’t involve a lot of tunneling.) Sounds good though. This, the Butler extension of the northern line, and a bunch of other stuff (Armadale line to Byford, airport line, northern line all the way to Yanchep) got announced a couple of months ago as a 20 year plan, so I guess this is the first wave.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=81669
Hi, does anyone have a link to the full version of the NewsPoll survey? They rang me on Friday as part of the survey, and I’d like to know the results – can’t see them in yesterday’s West or even on Patterson’s website, which still refers to a Carpenter vs Buswell preference as premier!
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