The latest weekly Essential Research survey (providing a rolling average of results over the previous fortnight) shows Labor’s lead up to 59-41 after a long stretch on 58-42. Also included are leadership approval ratings which provide an interesting point of comparison with Newspoll: Kevin Rudd has 56 per cent approval and 33 per cent disapproval (compared with 59 per cent and 25 per cent in last week’s 56-44 Newspoll), while Brendan Nelson’s ratings are 24 per cent and 51 per cent (compared with 36 per cent and 39 per cent). Breakdowns are provided telling us how much of this approval and disapproval is “strong”, and there are also results on whether Nelson’s party has given him “the support he deserves”, and on the seasonal workers issue.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Essential Research: 59-41
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554 Comments
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Is John Watkins in a very safe seat?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/watkins-set-to-quit/2008/09/03/1220121304006.html
#251
Ryde is normally a marginal seat but the terrible results for the Libs have blown the margin out to double figures. Maybe the demographic change that saw Howard booted out has had some effect too. It’s about 10% or something but probably the kind of seat the Liberals could/should win if they win government.
Not sure where you’ve been Ron, but Obama’s got plenty of attention over the views of his pastor. Why should Palin not get the same treatment?
Don’t know where this would go, but:
NSW Deputy Premier John Watkins is resigning from Parliament. With Rob Oakeshott likely to win Lyne on Saturday, there should be a double by-election in Ryde and Port Macquarie. Ryde is held with 10.1% margin, and was a very marginal seat before Watkins built up his margin. I would expect a strong Liberal candidate could win it.
“NEW South Wales Deputy Premier and Transport Minister John Watkins will retire from politics at the 2011 state election.”
No by-election in Ryde.
# 243 wrote
“Palin’s appearance makes it all interesting again.”
She looks and sounds like “Elaine” from Seinfeld to me. Those glasses, her face shape – and the voice sounds pretty close to me.
Pity Kramer is not running – he would get heaps of votes and lets face it would be very hard to be worse than bush.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24287355-5001021,00.html
Apparently he’s quitting Parliament immediately to take up a new position. The article mentions “a by-election on a date to be set”.
Watkins has allowed Iemma to reshuffle/renew the cabinet while protecting Labor from a by-election. Whether it has any positive effect or not is debateable.
Sky Noos reported that Watkins will quit at the 2011 election.
Although online Sky Noos does say “a by-election on a date to be set”. Strange.
Standard level reporting for Sky
The Australian is reporting that he will retire at the 2011 election?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24287493-12377,00.html
So I guess he will retire on Monday
No, 262 ruawake, this article also says – “A by-election will be held on a date to be set.” So who knows.
Daily tele article implies he’s found a new job in the private sector, so it seems unlikely he’d just hang around the backbench for the next two and a half years.
And if the state Liberals are to have any credibility whatsoever, they must win any by-election in Ryde.
“And if the state Liberals are to have any credibility whatsoever, they must win any by-election in Ryde.” Absolutely.
What is the difference between Skynews’ Agenda and ABC1’s Insiders?
In reply , some exposure of Lady is reasonable but not th same treatment as one is running for th top job and one as an assistant , also Obama had th whaciest of whaco’s Rev , Having that Rev as your priest for 20 years would be like Kevin Rudd having Exclusive Bretheren as his priest for 20 years , but with even more extreme ‘teachings’ than them
One has 6 letters, the other has 8
and as I said earlier Ron, Obama copped stick for his pastor, so why shouldn’t Palin?
Finns went:”What is the difference between Skynews’ Agenda and ABC1’s Insiders?”
One budget and usually two dills.
”What is the difference between Skynews’ Agenda and ABC1’s Insiders?”
With Agenda you get to miss – Bolt, Toad, Milne and Kelly.
Occasionally Agenda has Hawker on – the best political brain in Oz.
NSW reshuffle now on the cards, apparently there is plenty of deadwood to be pruned.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24287848-12377,00.html
Perhaps you may think i’m not agreeing with you th Lady should not get some treatment , I am , all I’m adding is overall it should be proportionate to there respective jobs they’re running for whereas McCain should get equal ‘treatment’
Also I mentioned th extreme relativities between th 2 priests extremism which is a point , although it does seem all US politcans for some reason seem imbeded with a zealous religous bent , and also a God bless America bent to finish every speech which I find annoying
Ryde , Deputy Premier Watkins seat he’s to vacate is in Maxine’s Federal electorate , hope she does not waste her capital there over Yemma
I find most posts on America to be annoying.
ruawake, what’s your take on the Liberal senators. Do you think they are just going to be sidelined or can they get back in the main game?
Ron,
The first rat departs the ship in NSW.
No that happened in bennelong.
You just forgot ?
Gold, dave.
ESJ,
If you can be bothered, check out 129 on Gilligans. The Beagle Boys can’t think up a new name. Now they can’t tell time. Six dropkicks in search of someone to punt them.
sondeo @ 231 -
I’m glad that someone else has made a statement such as this as I am having a running battle with a christian nutter
So much for us all supposedly being God’s children, eh?
steve
The Liberal Senators are irrelevant they just haven’t realised it yet. Labor is finessing Mr X and Feilding and they will give The Greens a reason to pass legislation.
Will the BoP 7 pass the Medicare Surcharge Bill, of course they will.
Sue H @ 235 -
Was the discussion interrupted for a specific reason?
God moves in mysterious ways, child!
.
Diogenes @ 236 -
<i.But the doctor stuffed up and made an unnecessarily risky and stupid decision because his patient was a VIP.
Has the doctor actually made a statement confirming what Palin claims, or is this just on her word? I’ve not found one, though I did find this in a comment to a (US) ABC article so take with a large dollop of sodium chloride:
re: MDMConnell @ #265
John Watkins is taking up a position as CEO of Alzheimers Australia.
My guess is the by-election will be held after the new railway opens later this year.
Two of the stations are in the Ryde electorate and the other station a few hundred metres outside the electorate.
Alex Mitchell from the Telegraph was on ABC radio this afternoon saying people don’t want the Railway, so the Libs will win the by-election (or something along those lines).
It will be interesting to see the outcome of the by-election as the main opponent of the Epping to Chatswood railway is now the Liberal Party Leader.
“Labor is finessing Mr X and Feilding and they will give The Greens a reason to pass legislation.”
Some of these issues ar beyond Mr X and Feilding’s comprehenson
That sounds like utter rubbish to me. I used to live in the area and work at Macquarie Centre, and a train line would have been awesome! The Terror probably just interviewed Liberal party members as usual.
Well they already got the Greens vote on the luxury tax by exempting fuel efficient vehicles, so I think the prospects are good
well Labor drafted legislation with that freebie in mind so as to sensibly trade it away , otherwise Greens would hav asked for something else again But those 2 cowboys ar out of there depth which makes negotiating difficult to know what they’ll ask for
True, I think X & FF will be more difficult to negotiate with. It won’t be a good look for them though if the Greens are willing to compromise and they aren’t.
Here’s the Economics Committee Report on the “Tax Laws Amendment (Medicare Levy Surcharge Thresholds) Bill 2008″.
http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/committee/economics_ctte/tlab_medicare/report/index.htm
Oh Dear, what a circus this Federal Opposition is. A Liberal senator forgot to turn up to vote and Fielding is lost in space as usual.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24289395-12377,00.html
Diogenes,
Is Gilligan’s Island still running ?I got some crazy email from crazy Catrina last week, I didnt read it – was worried it was a virus (she has made earlier threats in that direction) and deleted it.
and the organ grinder continues to show extreme relevance deprivation syndrome
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/03/2354786.htm?section=justin
sigh
Gusface, Howard is probably the reason Senator Boyce missed the vote.
“Senator Boyce said she was attending a function at the time and did NOT hear the bells ring.”
Thats pretty hard to achieve , and why didn’t Liberal whip do his job As for Fielding my post unfortunarely was prophetic , he and X a nightmare for sensible negotiations & thankfully after th next electon he will be gone
MayoFeral
I was only going by what Ron said. He doesn’t tend to provide links. I got the impression from Ron that he was basing his information on what “Yup Yup” reported that the doctor said. I haven’t seen anything from the doctor. I’ll look around for more as the story unfolds.
My feeling is that Palin’s doctor is going to be getting a nasty letter very soon and the words “malpractice” and “negligence” are going to be on it.
ESJ
Stop being naughty. What do you think of the chances Palin will be Eagletoned? If Obama was Nixon, she’d wouldn’t make it to the convention on Sunday IMO.
MF
I found a reference;
So the doctor is denying being asked for an OK to fly but the Palins are saying they checked with the doc. It’s hard to imagine Palin didn’t mention to the doc that she was in Texas. Looks like to doctors lying to me. There are plenty of obstetricians happy to go on record to say that Palin should have gone straight to hospital.
Diogenes,
Let’s see how the Palin speech goes tonight before we rush to judgement. I think it will be clear by 1 October (after the first debate) as to who will be President. If the hopemaster isnt in front by 5 or more on that date John Sidney McCain III will be the 44th President of the United States of America.
Regarding the US contest, I can see now why Obama was being so circumspect about Palin: the last thing he would want would be for her to withdraw! She seems to me to be a diasaster. Her inconsistencies are funny to Democrats, but must trouble the very fundys she was presumably brought in to appeal to. Plus her lack of judgement is a serious issue – McCain is not young and there is a real chance she could wind up being president if he won. That prospect will be ridiculed in the campaign. I can’t imagine her debating Biden. If she stays the candidate, unless there is some very strange surprise tactic waiting in the wings, I think McCain has no chance. Thats great news for those of us sick of Bush, but it would surprise me if the Republicans would give up this easily.
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