The latest weekly Essential Research survey (providing a rolling average of results over the previous fortnight) shows Labor’s lead up to 59-41 after a long stretch on 58-42. Also included are leadership approval ratings which provide an interesting point of comparison with Newspoll: Kevin Rudd has 56 per cent approval and 33 per cent disapproval (compared with 59 per cent and 25 per cent in last week’s 56-44 Newspoll), while Brendan Nelson’s ratings are 24 per cent and 51 per cent (compared with 36 per cent and 39 per cent). Breakdowns are provided telling us how much of this approval and disapproval is “strong”, and there are also results on whether Nelson’s party has given him “the support he deserves”, and on the seasonal workers issue.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Essential Research: 59-41
Copyright © 2008 Private Media Pty Ltd, Publishers of Crikey.com.au. All Rights Reserved.
Independent news, blogs and commentary on politics, media and business.
Editor: Jonathan Green.
Publishers: Eric Beecher, Diana Gribble.
Level 7, 22 William St, Melbourne, 3000. Ph: 1800 985 502 Fax: (03) 8623 9975
554 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 5 6 [7] 8 9 … 12 » Show All
ESJ
Any idiot can read a speech written by someone else. She used to be a newsreader so I’m sure she can read out what Bush’s friends have knocked up for her.
I saw that the TrooperGate investigation is due to report on 31st October. I bet the Repugs try every trick in the book to delay it.
Socrates,
Obama supporters are still Obama supporters. So the fact they are humoured, ridiculing or frothing at the mouth re Palin is neither here nor there.
Palin’s job is to persuade the conservative voters in the swing States and get out the Christian Right on election day.
Not many of them will be blogging on left wing Obama cheersquad sites.
Regarding Palin, TrooperGate is the most serious skeleton, but by no means the only one in her closet. Apparently she has rejected funding support groups for teenage mothers. I guess she must have worried about the conflict of interest
ESJ
I agree with you on Watkins: there’s nothing like bad polls to remind you of your family obligations. I can’t say I blame Watkins though: it is a sinking ship and if he feels he gets no traction with the Phillips street bover boys then it can’t be much fun. Its going to get worse for Labor in NSW too. On todays economic data did you notice in the State breakdown that NSW economic growth was actually negative in the last quarter? With no asset sale money and little to invest, NSW will effectively be in recession by Christmas. Even if they don’t ascribe such labels on a state by state basis, that is the reality voters there will experience.
GG
Even comedians in the US MSM are making jokes about Palin, not just bloggers. She will cost them plenty.
They’ve always made jokes about politicians Socrates.
As for NSW – it certainly is implosion coming up. Which little green bottle will come down next? There at pension maximisation stage now – ie mps will be fighting to get a ministry because it maxes out there super not in the expectation of re-election.
Socrates
On Iraq policy specificaly , do you support Biden’s view or Palin’s (both of which I posted (at #211)
I’ve ommitted Obama’s and MCain’s because there 2 differing policys ar each different again from both Biden’s & th Lady’s
Interesting story here on odds of Palin being dropped and general US election betting.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080902/pl_bloomberg/azjwbcginwsg
GG
I read a few of the fundies comments on a website and they were quite interesting. They liked her views on abortion etc. They were worried that she should be staying home to look after her disabled baby and pregnant daughter though. One said “Her family need her more than America does.” They also made quite a few references to her parenting skills. It was all the kind of stuff that us lefties would never get away with saying, even if we were thinking it.
And even if she mobilises the right, she’s looking like a big turn-off to the independents.
I think you are right ESJ; its one thing to have a stiff upper lip when you are in government, but once you know its over it must be hard to keep discipline. Its not as though an excess of nobility of spirit has kept NSW Labor together over the years. Just as an example, it will be interesting to see if Belinda Neal even gets pre-selection back into her nice safe seat next time if Labot lose NSW. There would be a lot of people used to employment in political offices over a long time looking around in that circumstance, and she would be pretty vulnerable.
Ron
I have said before I was opposed to the idea of a war in Iraq from before it even started, and still am. Of course I don’t support Biden. I agree with Palin on that topic. Her views on energy are crazy though; Alaska isn’t even close to a solution for the US oil supply.
Socrates,
Neal’s seat is actually a marginal one that she holds by a thin margin.
She won’t hold it after the next election. Jim Lloyd (former Lib member) has already popped his head up I’m pretty sure. There’d be nothing like a Neal-style meltdown to get the former member thinking it might be worth the hassle of running again.
On the other hand, Labor could pre-select someone other than Neal, and give themselves a chance of holding the seat.
Diogenes,
I haven’t seen any credible poll re Palin as yet and reserve judgement.
However, I do believe the Democrats and the feral Obamists are demonising her excessively and that all she will have to do is continue breathing in order for her to be a hugely popular and credible candidate.
Diogenes @ 298 –
I can’t understand how any competent GP would be happy about okaying a patient 5,000KM away in Palin’s condition flying for 8+ hours based only on what the patient is saying. Surely, at a minimum she’d have suggested a quick check at the nearest ER, or by the airport medics.
Especially, given that it turns out this drama started a lot earlier than recent reports have been suggesting. Apparently, Palin first called the doctor about leaking amniotic fluid at 4am and didn’t arrive back in Anchorage until 10.40pm. That’s nearly 22 hours with the 3 hour time difference between Texas and Alaska factored in. More than enough time for a quick medical check you’d think!
http://www.adn.com/626/story/382864.html
BTW-probably not surprisingly, Alaska Airlines is one of the few that has no policy on pregnant passengers: http://airtravel.about.com/cs/safetysecurity/a/pregnantflyer_2.htm
However, unless Alaska has seceded from the Union without telling anyone, they are still subject to FAA regulations, so I suspect Palin’s doctor is not the only one about to get a “nasty letter.”
Socrates
“I have said before I was opposed to the idea of a war in Iraq from before it even started, and still am. Of course I don’t support Biden. I agree with Palin on that topic”
Ditto , as did Beasley
You will find every future Democrat or Repug Alaskan Governor will follow th Lady’s enegy line , its th nature of ‘State’ based politcs , as was here over th MRB
You ar going to be disappointed with Obama’s actual nuanced Iraq policy both with withdrawal and indeed his supplementary policy should Al quaeda ressurect itself in any meaningful way in Iraq , his Iraq policy regretably for me is not what people believe it is (for that one would be supporting either my no 1 preference Al Gore , or for example John Edwards) USA style politcal mirrors unfortunately
I’m sure Palin could answer that question for you… she’s been a secession supporter for a good while
Ron
Yes Edwards was my first preference (assuming Gore didn’t run) then Clinton, then Obama. However I have nothing against Obama, and feel that there is no hope that the US slide economically and in terms of moral and political authority will be stopped, unless the Republicans lose and Obama and the Democrats win. So while I’m not an Obama fan, I dearly hope McCain loses.
C’mon, McCain supporters (or should I say Obama haters) the selection of Palin is a shocker LOL.
How can McCain be trusted to make correct and informed decisions if he can’t even pick his own veep?
Surely Obama has to win from here. Surely the Americans will get it right this time?
GG @ 313,
“However, I do believe the Democrats and the feral Obamists are demonising her excessively and that all she will have to do is continue breathing in order for her to be a hugely popular and credible candidate.”
Whether or not that is actually true, you can see the Dems are very fearful of being portrayed in that light. Stories like “Palin must be trailer trash because she wears hoop earrings” are gold to the Republican theme of “don’t vote for the Democrats because they look down on you”, now playing in blue-collar, small town America.
Palin’s first speech, first press conference and the VP debate will be big tests, but if she survives them or does well, she’ll probably end up doing ok electorally. Nevertheless I don’t really see how choosing her can be a plus for McCain. Why her? There’s really no sensible answer to that question.
I’d be quite fearful if she became President.
Socrates
with regret in hindsite I invested considerable months into checking Obama ,less on Hillary , Edwards & McCain as it was more accessible and having too much soursed adverse information disallows my support for either candidate on principal , I’m now actauly an informal voter
Accordingly my concentration todate (& probably in future) therefore on Obama rather than equally with McCain is simply a reflection he’s more likely to win AND there’s quite more than sufficent posters here on thise ‘left’ site who criticise McCain’s weakness’s
If you ar intersted I hav th best expose I’ve seen on what US world policy should be inclusive of Geo Politcal plus intertwinning morals and standards within it as well as rule of law & UN Just need to find it ,it’ll take about 15 minutes to read , had it saved up in case someone said Obama and/or biden were FA experts ! , and they ar amateurs in comparison
Dyno,
You’re not a moose are you?
Over on LP, Mark Bahnisch sums up my views.
Another indictment of the so-called liberal blogosphere from The Pinocchio Theory:
There are two things that especially trouble me about the “liberal” blogosphere’s attacks on Palin. One is good old-fashoned misogyny. I just don’t believe that a white male candidate would ever be subject to the sort of treatment that Palin has gotten: the smirks, the knowing winks, the ridicule of her prowess as a hunter, the doubts as to whether she can be an effective public servant at the same time that she is a parent to children under 18 (and especially one with Down’s Syndrome), and so on. I am in no way opposed to the basic need for partisanship, for taking off the gloves and attacking the other party. But I wish I could see a bit more thought going into the premises of all these “liberal” attacks on Palin, the sorts of values that they are appealing to. We are not going to win if we base our attacks against the Republicans on the Republicans’ own odious prejudices and presuppositions.
Dario @ 316 -
I’m sure Palin could answer that question for you… she’s been a secession supporter for a good while
So I’ve heard. And Alaska is only a short hop from Russia, the champions of oppressed peoples wanting protection from powerful national overloads, too. Wouldn’t Putin just love to help Palin achieve her fondest wish. Talk about blow-back for Kosovo and threatened NATO expansion into Georgia and the Ukraine!
If I was a moose I’d be hoping she gets the White House – less time to shoot at me!
Ron
Thanks although I already have read a fair bit on those topics (and still have a fair bit more I haven’t finished reading!). Have you ever seen Australian ethicist Peter Singer’s book “President of Good and Evil” on Bush? Its excellent IMO. Points out the dangers in the moral absolutism that underpinns Bush’s personal philosophy and administration. Its a few years old now but no less true.
But GG,
The basic point is this person is totally unqualified to be President. The only obligation of any note whatsoever that the VP has, is to be ready to be President.
Palin isn’t, and won’t be by January next year.
No doubt we can all get a good laugh out of Singer criticising other people for “moral absolutism”.
Dyno@319. The Republicans have gone with Palin to mobilise the religious right to vote on election day. McCain is not popular with that group and they would sit on their hands on election day as voting is not mandatory in the US.
I think that if Miss Sarah was such a dud there wouldn’t be all this mass hysteria and panic and fevered searching for dirt to throw among the Oily One’s supporters. (wink)
She sure has got them stirred up and running around like headless chooks and her speech tomorrow is sure to break all prevoius TV ratings.
What’s that oily blokes name again? haven’t seen hide nor hair of him since Miss sarah came on the seen lol.
vera,
You make a good point – Obama seems far less interesting than he did this time last week!
That may not end up hurting him in the election, who knows?
GG
Thats just spin. The point is not fundamentalists’s beliefs or behaviour, but their moralising and hypocricy. Liberals hold the view (amoung others) that the State shouldn’t have the right to dictate people’s private beliefs and behaviour, unless it harms others. For exampe, I don’t demand that others switch their pesonal philosophy to small L liberal, even though I consider it a sound philosophy. The trouble is, that there is a depressingly familiar pattern whereby those who promote state intervention on moral issues, oftne fail to live up to the standards they demand of others. If they didn’t raise the morality issue in the first place it wouldn’t get discussed, but they do raise it and so are fair game IMO.
“Peter Singer’s book “President of Good and Evil” on Bush? ”
no haven’t will seek it out , expose i was refferring ALSO demolishs Bush policaly , morally , intellectualy and FA wise in a 15 minutes speech AND it includes Iraq Will post if it interested
Dyno,
Now Let me see.
Nixon was a crook.
Carter was a laughing stock.
Reagan slept all the time.
Bush 1 held a lot of positions but never did anything of note.
Clinton had a zipper problem.
Bush 2 is universally seen as dumb.
Now, what was that about Palin being unqualified to be President.
Oh, and Obama can talk a good a fight.
PfS @ 327,
I agree with that – that’s why they’ve done it. Also to try to get the money flowing in from the religious Right.
There’d have to have been better candidates, though …
GG @ 332,
They had all done a lot more than Palin has now, before they became President.
Dyno,
Palin is running for VP.
However, if that is the standard, please explain what Obama has done to be President.
GG
He struts the stage like a moooovie star reading speeches and being worshiped and bowed to by all his dopey opps i meant doting (truly i did) subjects.
GG,
You raised the list of ex-Presidents and their faults, I didn’t, so why now try to pretend they are irrelevant to this discussion (if they are irrelevant, you should have thought of that before bringing them into the picture).
I am not particularly an Obama supporter (though he is the most fascinating politician I’ve ever seen). Nevertheless it’s not my brief to “explain what Obama has done to be President”.
But Palin just seems to me to be an appalling candidate. Basically there is nothing she has ever said or done that makes me think she is up to being President (and being able to take over as President is the only function of significance for a VP).
As I said yesterday, I’m perfectly willing to grovel to you in due course, if it turns out that she is, after all, an inspired choice.
GG
“However, if that is the standard, please explain what Obama has done to be President”
May I ask you th same politcal queston slightly reworded , a pattern , that has disturbed me from day one about USA style politcs , and you hav been a witness for months including tonite
Thousands of Obama supporter’s posts of anti Edwards , anti Hillary , anti Bush , anti Cheney , anti Iraq , anti McCain , anti th Lady….and defensive posts of a minsecule Obama’s skeletons publicised
Now we know ANY democrat POTUS will be a “NON Bush”…no more gittmo , no more judicial interference , no more Katrina foul upsd , no more renditions , no more pre emptive Iraq style wars , no more of Bush style of governing…ie. NO more Bush but any Democrat will provide that ! but blogging always seems to stop in th last paragragh stage narative !!
BUT where ar th reasons stated specifacly FOR Obama as Obama and what ar th specific benchmarks he’s promisding by which he can be later judged
I guess there are different ways at looking at it. Obabma got his convention and speech in and all went well. Solid safe performance with a little bounce. So that is the last impression people were left with of the Obama team before the side show started. People might not like it but Biden and Obama make a solid safe looking team.
Next came the sensationalism of the Palin choice for VP quickly side tracked into the quickly found dirt on her and, what many Americans may see as an patent lack of credentials and experience. Her claim to fame really is to be a redneck, fundy Christian woman.
Simultaneously we also had a hurricane to also diminish the McCain’s convention and the word is out that McCain was forced into picking Palin.
So what contrast do voters have of the McCain team and the Obama team after the last week?
Obama being out of the limelight is probably a good thing – who was it that said don’t disturb your enemy whilst they are in the middle of making a big mistake?
I think Obama needed a little break from focus as well as people are getting too familiar with his style.
All Obama now needs to do is come out with Biden, show themselves as a solid sensible and dependable team to increase the contrast.
Personally I would be appalled if Palin ended up as VP as there is the chance she would be President and she seems to be so much worse than Bush – can just see her dancing to the stings of the fundy Christian right and their agenda.
Dyno,
My point was that Palin will do VP as a precursor to running for President. At which stage she will be amply qualified.
There were plenty of other candidates with religious right appeal that he could have chosen. Why her?
TP,
I don’t think any of the dirt – so far – on Palin is of all that much significance. The much-touted Troopergate seems to me like something that many people will admire her for – the ex-brother-in-law sounds a right bastard – and much of the rest is just flim-flam, quite frankly. And her religious views won’t hurt her in the places where it counts, they’ll help in fact.
It’s her complete lack of credentials that bridles with me. I think it will also put off many voters.
Dario,
Exactly. Why her?
Ron
Post a link if you like.
GG @ 340,
Ok, fair enough. We’ll see …
Can someone articulate what this “lack of credentials” means? As far as I know, all she has to do is be on the winning ticket and she is qualified, credentialled and experienced enough to be VP and POTUS if the opportunity were to arise.
Night all.
I’ll find it tomorrow in my files and post it & then leave to you if you wish to look at it , lots of people make hindsite views whereas he accurately predicted th future of where Bush would send up Is that book widely avaialble
end up
GG
In your flood of posts did you see #338
Also how ar you Vera , saw your straight shootin post there
Pages: « 1 … 5 6 [7] 8 9 … 12 » Show All