I’ve been too preoccupied to offer commentary on Saturday’s Mayo by-election, but maybe interested readers can do the job for me in comments. Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs is a short-priced favourite to succeed Alexander Downer in the traditionally safe seat, but two other candidates in the field are of at least theoretical interest. One is Bob Day, the cashed-up Liberal candidate for Makin at the November 2007 election who is running with Family First after being knocked back for preselection. The other is independent Di Bell, described on her website as “writer and editor in residence at our very own Flinders University” and “Professor Emerita of Anthropology at The George Washington University in Washington DC”. Bell has the backing of Senator Nick Xenophon, which was seen as a decisive factor in independent Kris Hanna’s surprise re-election in Mitchell at the 2006 state election after parting company first with Labor and then the Greens.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Mayo by-election thread
Copyright © 2008 Private Media Pty Ltd, Publishers of Crikey.com.au. All Rights Reserved.
Independent news, blogs and commentary on politics, media and business.
Editor: Jonathan Green.
Publishers: Eric Beecher, Diana Gribble.
Level 7, 22 William St, Melbourne, 3000. Ph: 1800 985 502 Fax: (03) 8623 9975
88 Comments
Interesting that Labor decided not to run a candidate. Are they afraid of a further backlash?
William, you’ve got the wrong Mitchell – should be SA 2006, not federal 2007.
Thanks Bird, corrected.
You only need a majority of one to Govern, GO.
I think Labor have a tad over that, and dont really need the distraction.
Perhaps the Greens will give you the contest you desire. They are looking to be the second party in Federal politics as the Libs continue to implode, after all.
GP
How many safe labor bi-elections seats did the Liberals stand a candidate in the past 12 years?
I’ll save you the trouble. ZERO.
Have heard absolutely nothing about this election with all the WA stuff, but was surprised by the candidate with the support of Xenophon. Given he won a Senate seat outright as an independent and boosted Kris Hanna, has there been any suggestion of a boilover?
While you are correct that Hanna was a Labor member for Mitchell, William, he was a member of the Greens between February 2003 and February 2006 before he won Mitchell as an independent.
As a Mayo voter I will share my thoughts……………………
FF have spent heaps! lots and lots of corflutes and 3 types of junk mail, all utter rubbish about lighthouses and what Bob Day was like as a kid, just reactionary and sentimental crud with almost no policy.
The Libs are running with the campaign “Send Rudd the strongest possible message”. In my opinion this is rubbish. A lot more heads would be turned in Canberra if ANYONE other than Briggs won. Independents and minor parties always get more for their constituents and it would be a far bigger wake up call to do something about the Lower Lakes if Di Bell or the Greens won, considering the Liberals did nothing for them when in power.
The Greens have run a well-organised campaign. Plenty of corflutes and a very knowledgeable candidate in Lynton Vonow. Brown, Parnell and Hanson-Young have all been in the electorate campaigning for him. However today I received an anti-Greens leaflet in my mail that will hurt them a bit, though I still suspect that the Greens will finish second and perhaps even reduce the Liberals margin.
Di Bell, though not very well funded has received much coverage. She has focused her campaign entirely on the plight of the Murray, which should give her broad appeal.
Mary Brewerton, ex-ALP candidate is incompetent, stupid and under resourced. Some die-hard ALP supporters might continue to support her but not too many. I haven’t seen any corflutes of her and she didn’t attend the candidates debate.
In the candidates debate Lib Jamie Briggs proved himself to be arrogant, rude and even a little bit scary (No change from the last member then). Whilst the Greens and Democrats candidates were the most impressive.
The Local Rag (Mount Barker Courier) letters to the editor are overwhelming anti-Briggs. This is because he helped draft Work choices, was preselected through EXTREMELY UN-DEMOCRATIC means and is one of only two candidates that are not locals (the other being from the DLP). He is also from the extremist fringe of the Liberal Party as was Bob Day who wants to remove the minimum wage.
The chief reason I can see for the ALP not to run is that the focus of the campaign is overwhelmingly to do with the state of the Murray, an issue they intend to do nothing about. That this disaster happens to coincide with the bi-election will benefit the candidates with an interest in such issues, like Vonow and Bell.
Though Briggs will probably win I do not foresee a landslide. FF will take many votes from the Libs and only 75%ish will be returned in preferences. As the ALP isn’t running the contest has less to do with the bickering of the two establishment parties and more to do with policies and candidates, which won’t help the Liberals because Briggs is a Dhe@d. There are some important similarities between this bi-election and the one in Cunningham. Opposition leader Crean was on the nose then, Opposition leader Nelson is now and other nominees for sitting party candidacy angry at rotten pre-selection procedures ran as independents then and Bob Day is running for FF now.
What I cannot begin to predict is the voting behaviour of the 31% of voters that supported the ALP last time. What will they do?
@1 – the coalition did not once, despite 6 opportunities, run a candidate in any Labor held seat in their 11 years of government.
I hope Briggs loses. He has not finished his university degree after I-don’t-know-how-many years, hasn’t had a career in the private sector, and has worked as a staffer his entire life.
You either have to be a dishonest man to nominate yourself given this kind of background, knowing that you’re not meant to be in office when you haven’t really lived life like the rest, or barring that, just plain stupid.
As a conservative my hopes are on Day. But I’d rather the Greens win than Briggs — at least their candidate is a real guy with a real life, real education and real job.
Praying that the people of Mayo are smart enough to reject Briggs. I think they are.
Stormboy
I think that sums it up perfectly. Labor was very smart not to run a candidate because of the Murray River anger which shows little sign of abating. The Libs must be a bit worried about not looking too fantastic or they wouldn’t have introduced the Lower Lakes Porkbarrel Private Members Bill.
Briggs does appear to show promise that he could be every inch the wanker his predecessor was. It’s a shame Brian Deegan chose not to run. He would at least have made sure Briggs only limped in.
This is the first time that I have posted on this blog, I have followed this blog since the last Federal election.
This thread is of particular interest to me, as I work for a member of the SA parliament.
My mail tells me that alot of liberals who voted for Briggs in the pre-selection joined the party very very recently. Ive also heard that the decision to not run a candidate for Mayo was a tactical decision made by the ALP. Basically Brewerton is running again this time as the de facto ALP candidate in all but name. However, Briggs should win easily. In Adelaide, you would not even know of the by election.
Michael @ 10, the fact that Briggs has not even finished Uni is not new to me. Plenty of staffers, both Labor and Liberal have started Uni but never finished, the best example I can think of being Sports Minister Kate Ellis MP.
I don’t live in Mayo but just as an observation as a resident I have seen very little of Bob Day in the media lately. Maybe he is working hard just withing the electorate, maybe it is my steadfast avoidance of reading the (shudder) Advertiser. But I’d say Briggs has it from my perception at this stage. I’d be very happy to be wrong though, because we need another Howard-clone party machine Liberal member like a hole in the head.
Eric Blair
I also heard that many people who voted for Briggs were so enthused by his candidacy that they joined the party shortly before pre-selection. I believe Bob Day found fault with this groundswell and resigned with some recriminations over the transparency of the pre-selection process. I believe I heard the word “fixed” or “rorted” or “undemocratic” or something like that.
What has Alexander Downer done since he’s gone to Cyprus??? Lot a lot!
(from the Cyprus Mail)
FOR THE first time since the disastrous Burgenstock lock-in four years ago, the leaders of the two communities will sit down for fully fledged negotiations this Wednesday.
The 2004 referenda left the Turkish Cypriots beating their chests about their “unjust isolation” while the abject lack of diplomatic charm in the Papadopoulos government had the Greek Cypriots feeling the same.
The voting public noted the lack of progress on the Cyprus problem in the last elections, leaving Papadopoulos out from the first round. The new government, headed by AKEL chief Demetris Christofias, promised to make an earnest start in ending the decades-old conflict. His Turkish Cypriot counterpart, Mehmet Ali Talat, offered the same.
Soon after Christofias came to power, the Ledra Street crossing was opened, and the two leaders soon set up six working groups and seven technical committees to prepare the groundwork for direct talks. The technical committees dealt with day-to-day issues and confidence-building measures while the working groups focused on the core elements of a future settlement (security and guarantees, territory, property, governance and power sharing, EU matters and the economy).
After a little flirting, some bickering, a few domestics and the odd dinner and wedding invite, Talat and Christofias finally agreed to a date and are now ready to start the next “big” effort to solve the Cyprus problem.
The omens are never bright in Cyprus but with the pro-solution AKP government still in power in Turkey, and two leftist comrades leading negotiations, one could say there is reason to put the zivania in the freezer, just in case.
The flare up on Friday after the Turkish Cypriot side refused to open the Limnitis checkpoint to allow Greek Cypriot pilgrims to visit Ayios Mamas in Morphou is a clear indication of how far apart the two sides remain and why that bottle of zirvania may never be opened.
The Sunday Mail asked Presidential Commissioner George Iacovou just what could be expected from this Wednesday’s first meeting.
“A nice photograph. It’s really the official kick-off but there’ll be no ball game on Wednesday,” said Iacovou.
The two leaders will meet in the cosy quarters of the UN Chief of Mission Taye-Brook Zerihoun, along with the new UN special envoy for Cyprus, the former Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, for a simple opening ceremony.
Downer will read a message from the UN Secretary General and give his own comments, after which the two leaders will each make a short statement. There’ll be an informal discussion and then a joint statement released. There’ll be no Beijing-style celebrations on Day One of The Talks.
“The premises don’t offer the services for a bigger show,” explained Iacovou.
A week later, September 10, will be the next meeting, where negotiations will start in earnest. The first subject has been suggested by Talat and approved by the Greek Cypriots, who will likely choose the topic of discussion for the following meeting.
The leaders will meet on average once a week, as prepared in advance. There’ll be no set day for the meetings, which will depend on their commitments. The first break in talks will come between September 20 and 28, when Christofias will be in New York for the UN General Assembly. The working groups will continue to perform both preparatory and detailed work.
“Once you get going, you need to put the negotiations into the shape of an agreement, so the working groups will be doing plenty of work,” said Iacovou.
While the two leaders have met informally several times, the preparatory work for direct talks was largely undertaken by the two aides, Iacovou and his younger Turkish Cypriot counterpart Ozdil Nami. The two were responsible for coordinating, supervising and evaluating the work of the technical committees and working groups.
Both Talat and Christofias have been keen to define the talks as a “Cyprus-owned” process. Though both don’t share the same view on when the process might end, they are in agreement that there will be no outside intervention or strict time frames, unlike 2004. As a result, the actual details of how the talks will be conducted remain specifically vague. Both leaders prefer to play it by ear and see how the first two or three meetings go.
According to diplomatic sources in New York, Downer will attend the meetings once a month for the first four months, and then move to Cyprus in 2009 to play a more hands-on role. In the meantime, it’s not yet clear whether Zerihoun will deputise in Downer’s absence for negotiations to be conducted in between meetings, using the now familiar Iacovou-Nami connection.
Speaking from Ankara last week, Talat predicted that the Cyprus problem could be solved by the end of the year. Given Downer’s planned living arrangements for next year, and lack of progress in the key issues of security and guarantees, territory and property, this seems a touch optimistic. It’s more likely the two leaders will take baby steps towards a solution, starting off with the easier issues before digging in to the more thornier chapters.
As for Downer’s role: “Downer will play a significant role. But the UN Security Council has agreed that this is a Cyprus-owned process. The UN or Downer won’t be taking initiatives or preparing documents unless the leaders ask them,” said Iacovou.
Asked whether Downer was in danger of becoming a glorified note-taker, the presidential aide replied: “No. It depends on his skills. If he’s sufficiently tactful and bright as opposed to abrupt or reacting on the spur of the moment, then he can make a lot of significant contributions.”
The official language of the talks is English. There is no cap on the number of people in each delegation, but the confines of space will probably set the maximum at five for each, including the UN team. The Greek Cypriot delegation will be made up of Christofias, Iacovou, a note-taker, interpreter for the odd moment when Talat expresses himself in Turkish, and a fifth person.
“We could use this fifth seat to rotate people. Depending on the subject, we could bring an expert or someone we trust,” said Iacovou.
Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2008
@10
Of course they’re (we’re) not smart enough to reject him. Too stubborn to change as much as anyone else, of course…
Not that I’m voting for him. Or would ever consider it.
The Tiser has virtually ignored the by-election. The Sunday Mail ran a page of Briggs comments this week, with candidates listed neither alphabetically nor in order of position on the ballot paper. Briggs was on top though he’s actually well down the list. Pathetic.
The Advertiser also has a love-affair with other staffer-hacks like Pyne (who, together with a senator, breeds future staffer-hacks in his office). Why doesn’t the press actually raise a voice against it? Labor is just as guilty.
Pyne is an idiot – he’s said that the Liberal vote will drop at the by-election, as it is just “plain mathematics” when 11 candidates are fielded. What drugs is he on? There is no Labor candidate. That’s a third of the vote to go to other candidates. And the Lib vote is always very close to the 2PP vote at elections. There is no reason at all why the primary vote should go down. Pyne has simply said it so he can say after the election he said it would happen just so they dont have egg on their face.
The coalition to suffer in Mayo, coalition to be reduced to 64 seats in the lower house thanks to Oakeshott in Lyne, and an unpredictable WA election but I still think Labor will get over the line.
Michael @ 18
Not all of us staffers are comlpete hacks
Just those with no experience of real life or a real job are hacks. However the system that breeds them (this goes for ALP and the tories) encourages mediocrity and lack of imagination.
The problem with the press, in particular the Advertiser/Sunday Mail here in Adelaide is that they with a very few honourable exceptions are in general also mediocrities who are satisfied with the status quo.
BTW, i also agree that Pyne is a complete non-entity. Thank God the libs lost in november
“Mary Brewerton, ex-ALP candidate is incompetent, stupid and under resourced. Some die-hard ALP supporters might continue to support her but not too many. I haven’t seen any corflutes of her and she didn’t attend the candidates debate”
That’s rather harsh and, despite the under-resourced bit, is simply not true. Yes she has no corflutes but come election day she will have plenty of helpers and how-to-vote cards on every booth. She has also had plenty of publicity as the “ex Labor candidate”, so I think you find that a lot of the voters who voted Labor last time will support her again.
She’s the dark horse in this campaign, along with Di Bell. Never underestimate the way that preferences spray…
Surprise, surprise. The Tiser today breaks the silence with a piece saying Briggs is expected to win with a reduced Liberal majority. The Libs attack on the Greens (advocates of heroin injecting rooms etc) gets a mention.
Eric @ 20. Apologies if I smeared with too wide a brush. I do know many staffers and they are good, hardworking people with life experience. It’s the ones who are nothing but career staffers, having done nothing else, and then try to enter politics and spuriously “represent the people”.
Michael @ 23
No worries mate, totally agree with you anyway. Must admit, from some of the staffers that I know in the ALP in SA, I fear for the future of SA
It was good that Mary Brewerton gave Labor voters someone to support. And the piece she contributed to the Mount Barker Courier, though off topic (the River Murray), was pretty sensible amid all the current hype.
In the unlikely event I ever form a rock band I will to call it “Remember Stormboy”.
Today I received a propaganda pamphlet entitled “Thinking of voting for the Greens? The information in this pamphlet is somewhat mis-leading and I realised that it emanated from the Liberal Party although they did not have the guts to put their Logo on the pamphlet. Why not? Are they not wanting people to see how low they can go. I suggest to people that the look at the Greens web-site to see what their policies actually state, as the pamphlet only cherry-picks information
out of context, e.g. DEATH TAXES The Greens will re-introduce an inheritance tax., but omit to say that this applies only to multi-millionaires.,and so on.
@27
You received the Exclusive/Absolute Brethren pamphlet?
There’s a large community of them in Littlehampton and Mt Barker (and probably elsewhere in Mayo, but I’m sure of them), so it’s not just general dislike of the Greens they’re pursuing here…
PHIL Robins:
Yeah I think the ALP vote will be split between Mary Brewerton and David McCabe (DLP).
Thats the logically choice.
Ziggy
The pamphlet that came out in Mayo in the last few days attacking the Greens ‘radical policies’ is definitely from the Liberal party, not the exclusive brethren.
If you look really closely at the back, you may need a magnifying glass, you will see that the pamphlet was authorised by J Burston, 104 Greenhill Road Unley which is the same authorisation as all other Liberal material.
concerned voter mayo
DEATH TAXES
CARBON TAXES
I’d say everyones concerned.
Ziggy
The Tiser has been particularly silent on anything other than the libs. Even the letter to the editor seem to be edited with no commentary. From inside Di Bells campaign it feels like there has been a blanket put over alternative views. I hope people think before they vote. Also there are many things which distort the voting…like 3 weeks of prep-polling where if you want to you can vote anytime before the date. This advantages the major parties as they have their material/ machine ready to staff the booths with the how to vote cards etc ready. A short inside view!
I think voters in Mayo should consider the lower Murray as the most urgent local issue. Given that none of the political parties have done anything about this issue (least of all the Libs) a vote for independent Di Bell would be the only sensible course of action in my opinion. While Di Bell doesn’t have the same monetary resources of the big political parties, she has made her commitment to solving this issue very clear on her website: http://www.vote4di.com
There seems to be a question over whether a pamphlet attacking the Greens is from the Liberals or the Exclusive Brethren, but experience in Tasmania has shown that it could be both:-
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,20876,21114814-421,00.html
It would not surprise me if they were so lazy as to use the same pamplet as used elsewhere. Afterall they have been caught out before but there were no serious consequences.
Neil Cotter
Just heard an interesting little snippet of information the other day which I will post as a blind item…apparently during the process of working out preferences, one of the candidates (male) contacted all the others and told them he was putting them at number 2 on his ticket and asking for a reciprocal arrangement. Some have obliged (or so I understand), but others were politely non-commmittal. A week or so later he put out his “this is me” pamphlet, complete with how-to-vote card. He had put a one next to his own name and…the rest of the boxes were blank, thereby keeping everyone guessing as to his actual intentions until election Day.
It raises two issues for me; firstly, did he really think that the candidates wouldn’t speak to each other and therefore find out that he had lied to them (well, all but one) and secondly, is that really appropriate behaviour for someone who is currently very strongly playing the “you can trust me, mate” card? And isn’t lying a sin? (oops!)
Mary Brewerton, unlike David McCabe, does live in Mayo.
What is it with DLP candidates that they do not live in the seats that they are standing for.
rod Says:
“What is it with DLP candidates that they do not live in the seats that they are standing for.”
Sorry Rod I thought this was a federal bi election, with national and regional interests.
Ziggy
There are other candidates in this election apart from the pseudo Labor candidate, the protest candidate Di Bell and the major parties. Bill Spragg, Councillor on the Adelaide Hills Council is running a second time as an independent. Although not receiving the support of Nick Xenophon and the accompanying publicity, he is well respected in his council district and should do well in the north end of the electorate. Di Bell actually has more resources available to her than people realise. She had glossy flyers early in the election and has almost as many corflutes as the Greens. Bill has recycled posters from his earlier attempt and has been knocking on doors for weeks. He might surprise people with a stronger than expected showing. Since the Di Bell supporter posted a link to a website here is Bill’s http://www.billspragg.id.au
Notice his domain is in Australia and he is more than a one issue protest candidate.
‘Professor Emerita’. That’s choice. Emeritus is so commonly used that it is now genderless.
I suppose we should address her as the Candidata.
If Di Bell or the Greens can get more than 20% of the first prefs then just maybe they might get an upset. Almost every candidate, except for Briggs and Brewerton has Di Bell as no 2 on the how to vote card. Brewerton has the Greens. Shame she doesn’t have Bell as well to help tip the balance.
If Briggs wins this one then he’s more than likely set for life – what a depressing thought. He, Andrew Southcott, Birmingham, Trish Draper and a host of young liberals gatecrashed Bob Day’s campaign launch and then he tried to say it was a ‘co-incidence’ that they were there in the first place. Do we really need more wankers in parliament? There’s probably enough all ready
Any info where Brewerton and FF preferences are being suggested? While preferences tend to spray around all over the place despite HTV cards its a huge help if all are getting to people like Bell and Vonow before Briggs
Rory, it surely doesn’t matter much that Brewerton has the Greens second so long as she has Bell third, which she does. It will only matter if she needs Brewerton’s preferences to avoid exclusion by staying ahead of the Greens.
Wakefield:
I believe that FF are not directing preferences. (very strange indeed for a party that boasts christian ideals) But Liberals are preferencing FF according to the Australian (28th August)
<a href =http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24251966-5006787,00.html
I thought that Brewerton’s preferences were being directed to the democrats.
Ziggy
Wakefield:
Try that link again
Ziggy
I can tell you that Mary Brewerton has put the Greens second and Di Bell third; Bob Day is last and Briggs is just before him; her intention is obviously to try to get Lynton up and if not, then Di (which doesn’t mean she has anything against Di, just that she has a stronger personal relationship with Lynton).
And don’t read anything into that…
Ziggy – FF are not directing preferenced SO FAR. I bet any money they have a HTV card ready to go for election day and that it will ultimately preference the Libs (if not directly).
*preferences. Please excuse my uncoordinated fingers
As I understand it, FFP did make deals with a number of parties over preferences. They waited until those partiy’s HTVs were printed and then reneged in favour of an open ticket. This is not only dishonest, it also betrays their so-called ethics on preferences. Even though only about 40% of FFP voters follow a ticket, a flow of that magnitude would obv iously have helped the Libs. On an open ticket the preferences will scatter and Di Bell and the Greens (at bottom and top position respectively) will benefit. This should be anathema to them; but it just goes to prove that they are just like any other party – pragmatic and sometimes shady.
Don’t write off the DLP. The DLP has always polled well in labor areas and with no official labor candidate, the DLP is marketing their candidate as ‘the labor alternative’. That’s gotta count for something. My feeling is that their preferences will flow through FFP to Briggs and get him over the line.
I was at a candidates forum last night and the moderator, Professor Haydon Manning, said that he had been told by a journalist that yesterday Family First had definitively decided not to provide any preferences on their how to vote cards and only ask people to put Bob Day number 1.
Dave:
Yes dave, I think FFP has lost a lot of credibility over this election. Campainging in the makin election he was a strong supporter of workchoices.
He then changes to the FFP who are pro the ETS scheme.
Then organises preference deals with a number of partys, and renegs on them all.
It would be hard for Bob Day, or the FFP to make a stand on principles after this bi election. On top of that what platform will he stand on if elected?
Ziggy
CHINDA63
CHINDA63 Says; ” Ziggy – FF are not directing preferenced SO FAR. I bet any money they have a HTV card ready to go for election day and that it will ultimately preference the Libs (if not directly).”
Seems like they’ve missled everybody.
Taking Bod Day as a candidate, missleading everyone after their how to votes have been printed.
Looks like they’d vote for the devil if they thought they could win a seat.
(I hope their not running on a christian platform this election)
Ziggy
ZIGGY, if you’re right and FFP does run a ticket (as against a risky ‘vote 1 FFP option which invites informal votes) then this will prove beyond doubt that they simply can’t be trusted on any front, any time.
Have either of the SA Family First senators (Dennis Hood, Andrew Evans) been supporting Bob Day?
If Family First is not alloting preferences and Day picks up a slab of formr Liberal votes, this by-election could be very interesting.
PHIL Robins:
The way I see it is. Bob Day is unlikely to draw the 4% of family first pary vote last election. Half of those will feel very uncomfortable voteing for a candidate that does not represent their view. (Probably move to the DLP,the more traditional christian party).
This means Bob day will be starting with a base of abour 2%. Pollsters say he could pick up about 5.7% which would give him a total vote of about 7.7%.
The DLPs started with a tiny .60% of the vote will probably pick up the 2% from ff and should gain about 7% of the ALP vote. Leaving the DLP vote at 9.6%.
The greens started with 10.6% of the vote and will be lucky to advance with and independent labor standing though but lets say for the sack of the argument that they pick up another 2% meaning they poll 12.6%
Brewerton has stood as an independent and will loose at least the amounts the DLP and greens stand to pick up (7%) so at best she would pickup say 24% more likely with the additonal candidates standing about 20%.
The liberals should drop at least the amount that ff pick up coming from 51% – 5.7% = Leaving a vote of 45.3%.
Just from those figures this seat will be won on preferences.
Ziggy
I too was at the candidates’ forum last night in Aldgate and what an interesting and revealing night it was too! It would have been hard to have written a play script as entertaining as this – we even had a joker in the pack, who appeared to have come straight from the local front bar (where did he get the $500 one wonders?!)
Of the 7 candidates who bothered to come (and our little upstart from Canberra, who sees the seat as safely his, was not one of them) one candidate stood out head and shoulders above the rest – Di Bell. It was Di who was at least able to mount a strong argument (in contrast to some candidates, who struggled to put a sentence together): she is articulate, quick thinking and powerful in her rhetoric. She was so very clearly the only candidate who would be able to stand up in parliament and argue a case for Mayo and the Murray.
This will be an interesting by election – there is a chance that preferences will return a candidate other than the incumbant’s cardboard cutout replica. Then again, if he does get in, it probably won’t even make front page news.
And don’t forget the Democrats and other independents!
Mylorian@57
Nothing biased about your representation of the meeting is there?
Perhaps you should declare your hand. You are doing exactly what the media has been doing in trying to present this as a two horse race and marginalising the other candidates. At least one of the other candidates got spontaneous applause from the audience for responses he made to questions from the floor. So although Di does comes across as the most articulate she is not necessarily the most in tune with the electorate.
In fact she admitted at the meeting that she has picked up that there are other issues important to the electorate apart from just water.
What a shame she did not understand this from the start.
Ziggy, good analysis of the vote. Except I don’t think Mary Brewerton will do as well as you expect. I don’t think she has much booth support on the ground.
The risk to the Libs is, if they poll low 40s, then they may well not get enough preferences to get them over the line.
The number of independents additional to FFP not running a ticket means that there’s probably anything up to 20% of the total vote that cannot be accurately predicted. This may well favour the DLP in some respects and will definately be a booster to the Greens. There may well be three candidates still standing as either the Greens or the Libs get past the post.
Steve Lewis in the Tiser today predicts a Briggs win. He mentions Vonow, Day and Bell, but no-one else – not even Brewerton, who achieved a big swing and finished second to Downer as the ALP candidate in the general election last year. How shallow can you get?
Phil Robins:
The media seem to have their agenda on this bi election.
I Think the advertiser should get their act together because the reporting on this bi election has been awful.
I think I’ve learnt more from this site than anything that hopeless paper has printed
Ps go dave McCabe (DLP) for Mayo
J Clarke
Hayden Manning stated at the Mayo candidates forum on Wednesday night that only 50% of voters follow a how-to-vote card. This means if Briggs gets 40% only half of the remaining 60% of voters will have been influenced by a how-to-vote.
If candidates without how-to-votes get a total of 20% of the vote then 10% of the total vote would have gone anywhere regardless of how-to-vote cards.
The really amazing thing about how people vote is that a fair proportion of the voters believe that only one of the two major parties is worth voting for. Having scrutineered at an election it was surprising to see how many people who voted Labor 1 had voted Liberal 2 and vice-a-versa. It was this voting pattern that stopped John Schumman winning the seat of Mayo in 1998 when 10% of the Labor vote slipped to Liberals and got Downer over the line. This could lead to 2 to 3% addition votes going to Briggs simply because Labor has not fielded a candidate. Scarry!!
Ziggy, your not a local and have shown you’ve no idea about Mayo.
I have lived in Mayo for over 20 years and have not met one resident Cathlic (Although of corse, its not usually the first thing you ask someone, so I may have inadvertadly). We are THE LEAST cathlic electorate. The only votes the DLP will get is from those looking for Labor and get confused.
Brewerton is out of the picture! SHE HAS NO CORFLUTES! SHE WAS THE ONLY CANDIDATE NOT TO ATTENDANCE EITHER CANDIDATES DEBATE! AND SHE WAS THE ONLY CANDIDATE NOT TO SUBMIT A PLATFORM TO THE MB COURIER!!!!!!! Get over her. She has few supporters.
The top four will be (probably in this order): LIB, GREENS, BELL, FF.
Lynton will make a great local member and he has my blessing.
This situation approximates a ‘perfect storm’ for ousting the libs. I will conceed, if it doesn’t happen now, it will probably never happen.
ERICA
Erica says: “The really amazing thing about how people vote is that a fair proportion of the voters believe that only one of the two major parties is worth voting for.”
It’s hard to imagine that people are that stupid. They either dont care about their country or are just to lazy to find out. Lets hope that trend dies before its too late.
Most of the people I know look to vote for one of the minors first so as to maintain a democracy and then pass thier second vote to the major of their choice.
Jodie
Erica @ 39 -
There are other candidates in this election apart from the pseudo Labor candidate, the protest candidate Di Bell and the major parties. Bill Spragg, Councillor on the Adelaide Hills Council is running a second time as an independent.
He’s been the only candidate to knock on my door. We had a longish chat and he seems to have his head screwed on right (or we’re both equally silly
.
In the dozen years I’ve lived in the electorate I can’t recall Lord Downer ever sending me anything, but I’ve been deluged by half a forest worth of literature from the Libs, including 3 or 4 personally addressed letters (bit of a worry because I’m a silent elector), which makes me wonder what their polling is telling them. The anti Greens pamphlet adds to the perception that Briggs may not be travelling well.
Phil@61: It’s the Tiser…they never leave the shallow end of the pool
Preferences are the key in mayo and HTV cards have an influence but are not decisive. Since party names have been printed on ballot papers a lot more people do their own preferences. Some may look odd but there is usually a rationale behind them. A % of people believe that minor parties are a pest, even ones that are close to their philosophy. These people seem to believe in “strong government” – easily fooled by the argument that a vote for a minor party is a wasted vote (when truth is just the opposite). So the defeat of Schumann was caused by some Labor etc voters preferring Downer to Schumann – not usually a “leakage” or mistake but sometimes laziness. But equally there is a % who vote for all or most minor parties before major parties (plague on their house, all politicians are bastards etc voters). So Schumann got preferences from a lot of people who voted One Nation from memory.
So just because 50% or more don’t follow HTV doesn’t mean they are random. All it needs for Briggs to lose is for 50% of voters to decide that they are prepared to move preferences among the rest. Day has got no hope as those voting against Libs will not want a proxy Lib/fundamentalist. Bell being an independent has probably got the best chance as she will probably lock up quite a few votes that would revert back to Libs as compared with Vonow and Brewerton, particularly with Xenophon support. Votes from these and other minor groups apart from Day (Rich Families First) will flow strongly to Bell but probably not better than 2/3 overall. So for Bell to win it needs about 33 Briggs, 17 Bell and 50 others. Bell gets 33.3 and Briggs 16.7 of other 50 and Bell wins 50.3 to 49.7. Vonow and Brewerton could do it as well if they get ahead of Bell but less likely. Live in hope.
Wakefield, I generally agree with your assessment except for the percentage of preferences that the Liberals will receive.
At the last election Downer got 51.08% on primary and got an extra 5.98% on preferences, which is about 1/3′rd of all preferences as you point out. My feeling though is that the Liberal’s won’t get 2/3′rds of the larger number of preferences this election but will instead receive about the same 6% of total preferences as last election.
I agree with Haydon Manning’s assessment that if the Liberals poll below 45% on first preferences it will be a competition and if they get closer to 40% than they will struggle to win.
Just a quick interjection to stuff up your calculations but about 75% of voters, depending on the party affiliation, follow HTV cards. Labor and Liberal voters are especially obedient.
Diogenes:
With tonights news indicating that the fuel will rise 20% and Electricity 40% under the proposed ETS Scheme, we should all step back and have a think.
What party is the only party that will do all in it can to stop this monster from being released onto the public.
A Tax that will serve no purpose. A Tax that will hit the poorest and reward the polluters.
What party is that….. The DLP thats who.
So the way I see it is the DLP is up againts a bunch of yes men you are all in agreeance that this tax should be introduced.
So think hard (These bi elections might be our last chance) and lets all get behind David McCabe of the Democratc Labor Party.
Otherwise we will end up with this monster and only have ourselve to blame.
Ziggy
Damn right, Ziggy. Lets all sit back with head in the sand waiting for nature to extract its revenge.
However, for all those wimps
who don’t want to see it all end:
Garnaut figures show petrol will go up 5 cents/litre on his recommended carbon price of $10/tonne, and the 40% increase for electricity is over 12 years to 2020. For those on average incomes or less there will be kick backs which will rebate up to 80%, anyway. Or you could invest a few thou on a solar PV system which in SA currently returns you 44 cents for every KW you pump into the grid. This will rise with every price increase to ensure it’s at least double the going retail rate.
MayoFeral:
Carbon will be traded. There is no sure way to measure Carbon.
The major polluters are already planning how to cash these credits through other subsiduaries.
What joke. Kevin is trying to work our ways to try to stop the crippling effect on pensioners and the low income.
The only thing we are sure of is it will do no good, control and cost the lowest income earners in everyway.
But most of all, will achieve nothing. I think we already have enough yesman puppets standing Mayoferal.
Ziggy
Yeah, we have system in place for charging companies and people to stop polluting … it’s called the taxation system. Already in place, already tested, and low income earners can be easily assisted.
Sadly, “tax” is a bad word these days, so we’re going to spend more money setting up a duplicate taxation system that is overly complicated and difficult to administer, called the carbon trading scheme.
And now we find out the bar is so low nobody will have to actually stop polluting!
Anyway, my hope is a Di Bell or (of course) a democrat Andrew Castrique upset (4% would be good too!).
Come on Mayo … you can do it!
Here’s why I think Mayo will be a lot more interesting than most of the pundits 9but not Professor Haydon Manning) seem to think:
1. Alexander Downer quit the seat just a few months after his re-election, forcing on the people an unnecessary, costly, disruptive by-election. That deserves some kind of backlash.
2. There’s a mood in the electorate to lash out at the establishment, especially over the water issue. In Mayo, the Liberals are the establishment. They did nothing to alleviate the water crisis while in office. There’s no Labor candidate to punish. The Libs are the next best thing.
3. Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs is a Canberra blow-in who was one of the architects of WorkChoices.
4. Briggs won a conflicted preselection contest. Crying foul, wealthy long-time Liberal Bob Day, Liberal candidate for Makin last November, quit the party and is standing against Briggs under the Family First banner. He has spent up big in the by-election and, crucially, is not alloting preferences. If he can take a slab of the conservative vote, a lot of his preferences may not return to the Liberals.
5. The Greens seem to be on a bit of a high. Certainly the Liberals have targeted Greens candidate Lynton Vonow with a pretty full-on attack, suggesting they are worried. Vonow should be well known as he stood in the general election.
6. Although Labor is not contesting the by-election, its candidate for the election last year, Mary Brewerton, has left the party and is standing as an independent. Last year she gained nearly 30 percent of first preferences and more than 40 percent two-party. Now that she is without both the advantages and handicaps of standing in the name of Labor, it will be interesting to see how she polls. Certainly she should have name recognition and apparently she’s well-organised at the booths.
6. Di Bell, a very articulate environmental independent, has the influential backing of the man who can do no wrong, No Pokies Senator Nick Xenophon.
7. Democrat Andrew Castrique and independent Bill Spragg also were candidates at the general election, which should help them a bit.
8. Importantly, eight of the 11 cndidates are preferencing against the Liberals.
Having said all that, it’s nearly always been a pretty safe Liberal electorate with plenty of conservative rural voters to outweigh the Adelaide Hills trendies. Unless they’re well behind at close of counting tonight, the Liberals will cruise home on a superior postal vote campaign. The massive retirement village called Victor Harbour will be manna from heaven.
I know this is going to sound like unsubstantiated biased snark, BUT nonetheless:
I have it on reasonable authority that the doyen(ne)s of the Mayo Liberals are very concerned about Lynton Vonow.
I heard that before I heard of the pamphlet – a little bit of classic Lib tactics!
I personally would love to see him get in – but I don’t for a moment think it’s going to happen. 56-44 Lib-Green (just numbers out of the air, but I don’t think it will be close. So much for Green optimism).
Also good analysis Phil.
70 Diogenes. Have you done any scrutineering of votes for your 75%? At the 2007 Federal election the booth votes I checked (about 1000) showed about 50 % of ALP votes followed HTV, 45 % of Libs and about 1/3 Green and FF. With minor parties and independents the figures are all over the place because there usually are no HTV. With FF for example the end ALP Lib split might have been about 2/3 but they got there by different ways.
69 Tim – I’m suggesting Libs will get about 1/3 of preferences of all minor groups. Higher for FF, lower for others. If thats the case Briggs will win unless his primary vote is 35% or less. That is possible in this sort of by-election but not likely.
Josh WK:
That would just excelate the governments plans to implement this regressive
carbon tax on the poorest in the community.
Lets say no to this monster tax and vote for the only one who will do all he can to stop it. (He will gain a lion share of both sides preferences as well).
Lets all go David McCabe (DLP) for Mayo or forever be lumbered with this tax on the poor and small and regional businesses.
These bi elections are our last chance to send a message
Ziggy
Wakefield
I can’t find all the references but there is this on Wiki. This one says prefenence leakage is only 20%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preferential_voting
80 Diogenes. The figures quoted are for the final outcome which includes people who get the same result through another method or just luck rather than follow HTV. With minor parties and independents there is a much lower % who strictly follow HTV but again a higher % who end up at the same place just through restricted choice when its down to distribution between only 2 or 3 candidates left.
Just visited a Stirling polling booth. HTVs handed out for Bell, Brewerton, Briggs, Castrique, Day and Vonow. Briggs gets preferences from no-one. Day has a big, finely printed HTV on quality paper but let’s “You decide” who to preference.
The last Australian Electoral Study, which I think is put out by ANU, found that 51% of all voters reported following the how to vote card. Probably a bit higher but it isn’t up to 75%.
Wakefield@78 … 35% at first sounds low to guarantee the Liberal the seat, but as this thread has teased out the numbers, it is probably realistic. With a solid base for the FF candidate and some Labor party transfer to the Liberals, getting that last 15% shouldn’t be too hard for the Libs.
That’s the beauty of PR in my mind, it doesn’t matter if 60% of the candidates are from one side of politics, if 60% of voters want someone from the other side, he or she’ll get in.
And to be fair, if you can get 35% in an election with 11 candidates then your team has done something right!
Tim
I think at the last fed election about 75% of FF preferences went to labor, which went against their HTV and what FF stands for.
51% does sound a bit low, majors primary is around 80%.
As a matter of fact Ziggy, that’s why I support Vonow.
And you’re wrong if you think the ALP supports a carbon tax. They don’t. That’s why they’re not creating one while they’re in government.
I support the Gs because they might actually put a real price on carbon emissions. Because the Greens are the only party talking about acting on climate change and supporting those on the lowest income to get through the pain that action will cause – pension increase (long before the Libs or DLP said anything); assistance for low income earners; feed-in laws & efficiency retrofits to help households earn money from a clean energy future, rather than just paying as they will under your model (either now or 30 years down the track). Acting now means less pain, zigs, not more.
Environmental action + social justice campaigning. Sounds right up your alley!
Unfortch – still don’t think Vonow’ll win it. Briggs has it for now (fervently hoping I’m wrong).
Josh WK:
The DLP have been against a Carbon Tax/Trade right from the beginning.
It serves no purpose. Will do no good. The burden on the poorest people in our community will be far to great.
One only has to look at warnings coming out of Europe. The greens will only increase the burden on the poorest people in our community.
Bob Brown even wants to shut down all coal power stations.
The extreme green ideology hopefully has reached its peak and once people start to realise the danger of this ideology they will desert it in droves.
Young 18 year olds grow up someday you know
Ziggy
New thread.