The Poll Bludger’s WA election guide has been reupholstered with predictions, campaign updates and a Legislative Council page. The upshot of the first of these is that I’m tipping Labor to emerge one by-election defeat from oblivion, with 30 seats out of 59. Predicted Liberal gains are Kingsley, Darling Range, Bunbury, Collie-Preston, Ocean Reef, Riverton, North West and Swan Hills, with no corresponding losses (such as Albany or Geraldton). Labor’s victory would thus depend on Jandakot, beneficiary of the Mandurah rail line and Fiona Stanley Hospital, and Joondalup, where a 4.4 per cent margin looks a bridge too far against a sitting member, despite talk of the northern suburbs as “tiger country”. However, it should be noted that further losses in Forrestfield, Southern River and Mount Lawley are not out of the question (the latter was a target of Labor’s campaign launch promise to build a rail line to Ellenbrook, reportedly pre-empting an announcement from the Liberals); that Morley turned up a surprise poll result on the weekend; and that Kimberley can be very unpredictable. I’m tipping the Liberals to lose Moore and Blackwood-Stirling to the Nationals, if indeed the latter can be said to be a Liberal rather than a Nationals seat; Janet Woollard to retain Alfred Cove, though not with great confidence; and Bill Marmion to recover Nedlands from Liberal-turned-independent member Sue Walker. That leaves the Liberals with 23 seats, the Nationals with four and two independents.
The upper house looms as a potential bonanza for the heretofore unrepresented religious parties: my guess is two seats for Family First, 15 for Labor, 14 for Liberal, two for the Nationals and three for the Greens. I expect Liberal-turned-Family First member Anthony Fels to win a seat in Agricultural along with two Liberal, two Labor and one Nationals, although Fels’ place could be taken by Mac Forsyth of the Christian Democratic Party if One Nation falls hard enough. I’m also tipping former Liberal deputy leader Dan Sullivan to win a seat in South West, joining two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens member, although the picture here is complicated – it could be right four, left two rather than three-all, and the Greens, Family First and Nationals are all in the picture. My tip in Mining and Pastoral is three Labor, two Liberal and one Nationals, though Labor’s third seat could go to the Greens and there could be a third Liberal instead of a National. In the metro area, I’m tipping three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens in East Metropolitan (it’s not impossible the latter seat could go to the CDP); three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens in North Metropolitan; and three-all in South Metropolitan.
Here are some of the electorate-level campaign updates from the election guide:
Collie-Preston (Labor 0.9%): Early in the campaign, Grahame Armstrong of the Sunday Times reported that Steve Thomas had “spoken in favour” of mineral sands miner Cable Sands while renting a house from them for $30 a week, which Thomas argued was all it was worth. Paul Murray of The West Australian claimed Labor had planted the story with Armstrong, a one-time press secretary to Geoff Gallop, whom he accused of running it even after it had been “factually destroyed by a letter from the company supplied to the newspaper before publication”.
Riverton (Labor 2.1%): The West Australian reported on Saturday that Labor was making a “last-ditch attempt” to hold the seat by promising the Leach Highway truck ban promised in 2005 would be fully operational by the end of the year. At present the government has implemented only the “stage” of the ban, targeting trucks longer than 19 metres. Riverton has been described during the campaign by party sources as “of concern” to Labor, and “in play”.
Bunbury (Labor 0.9%) and Albany (Liberal 2.3%): The Liberals have targeted two marginals in one hit with their promise to spend $225 million building a natural gas pipeline linking Bunbury and Albany.
And here’s me in Friday’s Crikey. An important point missing from the article below is that the Buswell website was developed by Labor while he was still leader – their error was in failing to recognise that the attack looked disproportionate after he’d quit.
With so much ammunition available to both sides, it comes as no surprise to find the WA election campaign dominated by negative advertising. Liberal mailouts have depicted Alan Carpenter projecting Brian Burke’s shadow onto a wall, while the six radio ads on the party’s website feature one Whingeing Wendy after another (in an interesting inversion of the situation in the party room, two-thirds of the voices are female).
For a party caught on the hop by an early election after a term consumed by leadership turmoil, such tactics might have been an operational necessity. The positive side of the Liberal campaign has won few admirers: policy announcements have been either re-heated or half-baked, with this week’s showpiece tax cut package criticised as both too modest and lacking in detail. The one television ad promoting Colin Barnett’s leadership qualities is either a conscious attempt to project an image of bland competence, or it indicates an even greater personality deficit than first feared. The party’s newer ad is more consistent with the tenor of the campaign, inviting viewers to spend a silent 30 seconds trying to think of “three good things Alan Carpenter’s Labor has done in eight years of boom”.
However, it’s been Labor’s tactics that have emerged as an election issue as the race enters the home stretch. On Wednesday the party launched an online dirt sheet called TruthAboutTroy.com, focusing on the colourful life and times of former leader and current Shadow Treasurer Troy Buswell. This was hardly the first time a made-to-order website had been used to attack political opponents, or even enemies within (most memorably in the case of the anti-Ted Baillieu website that was traced to Victorian Liberal Party headquarters). A Liberal-authorised federal election site called unionbosses.net continues to greet visitors with tales of “union thuggery”, “dirty tricks” and “Labor’s union links”, along with audio of former ALP member Dean Mighell employing intemperate language while addressing ETU members.
Part of the problem with Labor’s intensely personal attack on Buswell was that it arrived as concern over the campaign’s increasingly negative tone was ready to crystallise. It took only a short sharp talk radio backlash for Alan Carpenter to order that the site be pulled, with state secretary and safe seat candidate Bill Johnston sent out to face the music from a hostile Russell Woolf on ABC Radio. It was a different story earlier on in the campaign, when Labor took advantage of the Liberals’ unpreparedness to saturate Olympics schedules with ads promoting the government’s past achievements and future plans. With the website episode threatening to reinforce perceptions of arrogance and cynicism, it might be time for Labor to dust off its positive message in the final week of the campaign, shop-worn though it may be.
449 Comments
I’m thinking Labor 32, Liberals 21, Nationals 4, Independents 2. Not that my opinion carries any weight, mind you. I’m not sure about Alfred Cove, living in the electorate myself. There are lots of Janet Woollard posters along canning highway and in Applecross but relatively few in Mt Pleasant and elsewhere. With Kierath not running for the Libs, their vote should increase.
Interestingly, on one of her pamphlets Woollard claims she has spoken to Barnett and would join a coalition with the Liberals if required. Strange there is a Liberal candidate in Alfred Cove but not Churchlands?
There is no state based IR policy anymore anywhere, its about as useful as state based defence policies.
Some smarties in the ALP like to trot it out as a clever line - oh what are they going to do about IR, the answer is straightforward they (the Liberals) like the state ALPS will apply Forward with fairness. The one area where they have any choice is on what to do with their public service IR.
It was all agreed months ago. Or am I wrong GB, did all the Labor states not agree to forward with fairness (and its call for one national system?)
Off to the execution block you provocateur GB!
If I am Mata Hari GG, does that make you Sydney Reilly?
Haven’t we already had this argument?
ESJ,
My MI5 code name is Argus Tuft. (Say it quickly for the true message).
Personally, I’m not scared of state workchoices. That ‘big scary workchoices monster’ which reared its ugly head at the last federal election- what a lot of rot. Only little girls are scared of such a thing, surely!? Anyway, as ESJ accurately points out, state governments are quite limited in this area.
William,
There is a Flyer being distributed in Swan Hills by Graham Giffard featuring endorsements from various people, including Retiring sitting member Jaye Radisich
She also authorised a flyer detailing Labor’s approach to Trail Bikes, a local issue in the Hills area.
Duke, I’d forgotten about Moore, so I agree with you about the Nationals winning four seats and have changed by post accordingly.
I was pleased to see that WA Inc is still alive and well in the west on the 7.30 Report. If Mr Moodie wasn’t the victim of a politically motivated assassination over a trifling $6,000 travel allowance, I will walk from Adelaide to Perth. Who watches the watchers?
GG,
It seems from Williams post there may be some preventitive shredding going on in government offices in Perth as we speak?
Is it Der Untergang? Does Julie Bishop regret not deciding to become Liberal Fuhrer for Greater Perth after the federal downfall?
Diogenes,
Do you smell the fear in the air?
And bonus - Nader is +4 in the latest CNN poll. My automatic rife out of my cold dead hands - LOL
William, I wouldn’t bet on the Nationals winning four seats, but given their independent stance and consistently good polling (~30%) in rural areas, they should be able to pull it off on the back of Labor preferences.
My very amateur predictions are that there will be more non-ALP and Liberal seats than are being forecast. Based on living in the area, I forecast Bill Stewart to win in Carine and for Elizabeth Re to win in Scarborough, both Independents. I’m very disappointed that there has not been useful coverage of the new Scarborough seat, in particular. Antony Green - your ABC summary of the electorates says nothing about a burning issue that affects all of us who value the WA coastline: coastal development. The Liberals put up a pro-high rise candidate in Scarborough and a dubious candidate in Carine who does not live in the electorate and has no relationship to it. The ALP’s candidate in Scarborough is also pro-high rise.
I rang Patterson today about the poll I took part in on Friday and was told that next Saturday’s West Australian will publish the results. It will make very interesting reading just before we vote.
ESJ,
Wishful thinking on your behalf, I’m afraid.
Labor comfortably for me.
GG, your not related to Gungus Tuft are you?
Wouldnt have the slightest clue GG, its another country for sure. Not even an ethnic branch stack in sight?
Helen, I unlike Antony have mentioned the coastal high-rise issue on my Scarborough page, which you might like to put down to the fact that I grew up in the area.
I don’t know what you’re on ESJ but I want some. As for your comments that are making some sense to me I respectively disagree. As far as that issue is concerned we’re done.
ESJ,
Correct spelling is Goanges Tuft which is my Aboriginal name.
William,
I disagree with you on Swan Hills, after the Train Announcement on Sunday and with Frank Alban’s comments re Ellenbrook as a Councillor in regards to applying a levy for Ellenbrook residents to fund the suburbs parks and gardens, I very much doubt a Liberal win. Also, Swan Hills loses the liberal booth in Henley Brook to West Swan.
Make that “respectfully”.
GG, your German-Aboriginal first cousin isnt Ewe Pistoff?
ESJ
I don’t smell fear, just the pervading stench of corruption. Fortunately in SA Mike Rann assures us that we don’t have any corruption so we don’t need a CCC. Judging by the CCC in WA, we’re not missing out on much. I must say that Brian Burke still looks good in his Panama.
Indeed Diogenes, the State ALP’s collectively could you use some extensive colonic irrigation.
At least the conservatives do corruption properly with the ALP its usually something banal like a job for someone who is unemployable on their merits.
Uncle Ewe was a traindriver turned brewer who invented the world renowned lager called “Piston Pale”.
He was only Pistoff when the beer ran out.
ESJ
Given that one of Carpenter’s first actions was to remove the ban on WA Labor pollies schmoozing with Brian Burke and Grill, with the local rag cheering him on, I’m surprised that there aren’t more questions about his honesty, or stupidity. How many ministers etc do you have to sack before someone works out that you are the problem?
35-19-3-2 for me
Is anyone prepared to stick their neck out and go for a Liberal win? Where is Glen when you need him?
Sean,
What’s your take on Swan Hills ? I reckon Morley will be retained by the ALP, D’Orazio flip flopping on resigning, rejoining and then re-resigning cos he didn’t get his way makes him look like he’s only in it for himself, and not the Electorate.
BRIAN BURKE: Um, has the Minister met with Brian Burke since becoming the Minister for Small Business. If so, how many times? That was a simple question. Okay?
NORM MARLBOROUGH: Yes.
BRIAN BURKE: If, er, he, if Mr Burke, or any other lobby or lobbyist including Bill Hassel, Richard Court or Barry McKinnon seek to meet with me about matters infecting my responsibility, I’ll make a decision on the basis of the approach. Mr Burke and his family are friends of mine. I meet them from time to time and intend to continue to do so. All right?
NORM MARLBOROUGH: Yep.
BRIAN BURKE: It’s all signed off, but mate.
NORM MARLBOROUGH: Yes.
BRIAN BURKE: This is now three, four weeks since I gave you these answers.
NORM MARLBOROUGH: Yes. Yeah, but I didn’t write them down.
BRIAN BURKE: What are you f**king trying to do to me?
NORM MARLBOROUGH: I’m not trying to do anything. I just need to get them today.
I always find with the footy that when my team wins by a large margin it doesn’t quite have the enjoyment and satisfaction as winning by a point. Conversely losing by a point is always far more disappointing than losing by a large margin. A one seat win would be fine.
Gary, your footy team can’t lose the game later on at a by-election.
ESJ
Was that a Freudian or Joycean slip?
William, who’s to say there will be a by- election in a marginal seat if at all?
Wran operated with a one seat majority I believe. I’m sure there are other examples.
Gary
Rann had a one seat majority for his first term. It was a disaster. You can’t govern with a gun held to your head, especially if it is held by the Speaker who was being accused of really having illegal guns.
Wayne Goss being one of them, Gary.
Didnt William predict a one seat majority in 2005 as well?
GB, when I read comments like your 30, I reach for my sjambok.
I think Menzies coped alright with a 1 seat majority after the 1961 credit squeeze election.
Sean, last time I tipped every seat correctly except Kingsley and Greenough, which I failed to pick as a Nationals gain from the Liberals. I’m not saying I’ll do so well again this time.
Darn, Menzies put an end to his one-term majority by calling an extraordinary early election in 1963 that left the House and Senate cycles out of whack until 1974.
35 Diogenes - What made it a disaster? Didn’t Rann then increase his majority?
Oh - in the absence of any other responses I finally thought of one connection that Bill Johnston has to my poor little electorate - he’s the one that authorised the bulk of the negative ALP election material including the Troy Buswell attack website. I’m sure that must count as a local connection in some way…??? Still waiting on anything more substantial.
C’mon ALP’ers - the guy might even just live in the electorate, I just don’t know. Can anyone help? I must have missed the candidate’s declarations with their addresses this time around - they normally publish in the West don’t they? I never saw it.
38 Edward - great. Mission accomplished then.
They were in the West the Wednesday after Nominations closed
and are also here
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/Candidates%20for%20web.pdf
As I put some money on the result for a lib win (the odds were too good to refuse)… I guess I should predict a Liberal win.
I don’t know much about Jandakot, but I would add Joondalup to the list of gains. Guessing Forrestfield and Southern River to the Libs. I’d then skip Mt Lawley as a retain (for Labor) and make Wanneroo as a gain (for the Libs)… Wanneroo voted over 55% Liberal at the last Federal election and those newer areas of Madeley, Carramar, Tapping look more like Woodvale than they do Marangaroo. If Quigley wasn’t running, I’d add Mindarie to the gains - but he will probably hold onto the seat given the Libs not running a campaign and he’s got a big profile.
I think West Swan could get a big swing… but probably not enough.
So with Jandakot, Joondalup, Forrestfield, Southern River and Wanneroo - that gives Liberal 28, Labor 25, Nats 4, Ind 2…
That said, Labors anti-uranium campaign is penetrating well so I won’t bet my house on it - but at this stage I’m backing the Libs to form a minority govt.
Oh and Bill Johnston lives in Victoria Park, which is in the electorate according to here:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wa2008/cannington.htm
For the upper house I’m tipping:
North Metro:
3 Labor
3 Liberal
East Metro:
3 Labor
2 Liberal
1 Green
South Metro:
3 Labor
3 Liberal
South-West:
2 Labor
2 Liberal
1 Green
1 Family First
Mining and Pastoral:
3 Labor
2 Liberal
1 National
Agricultural:
2 Labor
2 Liberal
1 National
1 CDP
Overall:
16 Labor
14 Liberal
2 Green
2 National
1 Family First
1 CDP
Also, I think the ALP might have a few issues in the northern suburbs as was reported. A few Labor campaigners I’ve talked to seemed to be rather unenthusiastic about their prospects- unusual for university students to say the least.
No GB its more your my party right or wrong outlook (then your arguments) which are rather tiresome.
That’s your problem ESJ not mine. Live with it.
Postal Voting hits unprecedented Levels.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/media_centre/documents/Media%20Release14%2008%20Postal3.pdf
GB & ESJ,
William has made his prediction.
If you can just leave aside the schoolboy taunts, isn’t it time you made yours? Let’s hear it.
Well, William lives in WA and has his finger on the pulse so I will go with his prediction. For me it’s as good as any. I will reserve the right to change my mind however depending on further polling.
Have I missed your prediction Winston? Oh, and stop kicking my dog.
Frank (50)
As I commented on a previous thresd, postal voting is now running completely out of control due to the ever increasing involvement of the parties in the postal voting process.
If it gets much worse, the federal and state government may as well start considering conducting the whole poll through the post and save the cost of setting up polling places, as already happens in numerous local government elections.
16 William - yes, I did see your site describing the Scarborough electorate and that’s how I found The Poll Bludger. Apart from ads for Liza Harvey at bus stops and her tackle shop, she’s keeping a remarkably low profile around the electorate. There have been no “meet the candidate” sessions, unlike Scott Blackwell. The local ratepayers’ association has put out a leaflet about Liza Harvey, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, disputing statements she’s made on one of her cards. We really like this one: “protecting our seafront from overdevelopment”. Yes, only because from her viewpoint nothing should be higher than Ob City!
Also on coastal high-rise: in today’s West was an article about more proposed coastal developed unwanted by residents: http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=95213
I would like to take the opportunity to point out that although SOS Scarborough was disbanded, some of its ex-members and other residents have formed another group and are seeking an injunction in the Supreme Court against the City of Stirling, Western Australian Planning Commission, Alannah MacTiernan and others, to stop the proposed 8 storey development over a huge part of Scarborough. Although the City of Stirling has approved it, the State Govt has not. This group has found it incredibly difficult to get any media coverage about their fight - but then, who do you think the West gets most of its revenue from? I’m sure the Liberal Party has received lots of donations from the real estate industry and developers, and probably the ALP has too.
For residents in this area, this state election is very interesting indeed.
22 Diogenes - Brian Burke has a much more interesting look - he’s been spotted by some of his neighbours walking around with a parrot on his shoulder. Alas, no photographic evidence that I know of.
I live in Perth as well, and seriously, i think a lot of people are going to have egg on their faces come saturday.
Everyone has all gotten in a huff, all the conservative media is propping up a pathetic opposition, and Im just not feeling it on the ground.
Helen oh please, stop acting like some NIMBYs actually represent the community, the City of Stirling passed its amendments with overwhelming approval from the local community. Most people in that area are in favor of development, and being pro development isnt going to hurt someones campaign
Were you sitting on a fence when you wrote that GB?
Happy to give my prediction. Little chnage. A small increase in Liberal vote. Some former Labor voters will vote Greens out of disillusion with Labor. But no substantial change in seats.
Gary
It wasn’t Rann’s fault that it was a disaster and the electorate realised that hence the increased majority. It has to be said that Peter Lewis holding the BOP was always going to be pretty unstable.
I totally agree, if you believed the comments on Perth Now, and The West and listeners to Talkback - The Libs would win in a landslide and Carps would lose his seat.
In Swan Hills Graham Giffard has been having community meetings in all parts of the electorate, the mailouts have been 12 to 4 in his favour, and the local paper has at least a couple of ads per issue.
And Sunday’s annoucement, plus cheaper Public Transport will be a boost to this electorate and hopefully the increase in busses to my part of the electorate will really help - atm on my street, there are 3 busses per day, and none on the weekends.
55 SeanofPerth - that’s interesting Sean. Usually if there is a large swing on you do feel it coming. I remember when Kennett was first elected, you could see it coming a mile off. Also when Cain was elected in ‘82. I must admit though I didn’t see Bracks coming in ‘99.
57 winston - yes I was because I really have no idea. I’m not over there and I can only go on what is being discussed here. As a matter of interest are you in WA?
58 Diogenes - I remember that now. I see what you mean about it being a disaster.
Make no mistake, I feel a lot of disillusionment on the ground with Carpenter and Co but there seems be a general consensus amongst the ‘typical’ voter that the Liberals are in no state to be in government.
I really hope you’re right, Sean. I’m seriously considering leaving the state if this bunch of clowns somehow win. The minority govt might actually be more painful than a majority Liberal… the Nats will then try for their ‘Royalties For Regions’, so no more Ellenbrook line etc, and what’s left gets privatised and ends up like Connex in Melbourne.
As for Elizabeth Re, Helen… I doubt it. Labor and Greens are swapping second preferences, so Re’ll most likely finish behind Labor. Only way she’ll come second is if she gets a similar vote to Labor (say 30%) and a bunch of Greens voters ignore the HTV card. It’s possible, but I wouldn’t call it likely.
I reckon the Libs complaining to the WAEC will backfire on them as it will prove that they have something to hide re Uranium Mining and Nuclear Waste and Transport of same, olus the fact that the News bulletins are re-inforcing Labor’s message will resonate more the voter than a stand alone TV ad which most people ignore.
Frank - thanks for that link. I actually was curious to see if he lived in the electorate - regulars here will know its one of my bug-bears. Bill Johnston apparently lives in Vic Park and appears to be in the heart of Ben Wyatt’s electorate of the same name - ie Victoria Park. As I recall he had a bit of a tilt at that one, didn’t he? Oh, and in defence of William, his seat summary from your link doesn’t indicate either he, or Victoria Park, is in the seat of Cannington.
In the interests of balance let me also point out that Mr Chorley doesn’t live in the seat either. In fact, only the Greens and CDP candidates (who are the only ones left) live in the electorate and both look like they’re in my little old suburb.
Odds seem to be shortening. Sportingbet now offering $1.30 for a Labor win and $3.40 for Libs. Lasseters very similar. Surely there won’t be a Liberal victory? A few seats to the Liberals seems more likely.
GB (60)
You are right. When a big swing is on you can usually feel it.
No-one saw the Kennett loss coming because the big swing happened in the regional areas where no-one was watching. Everyone just assumed the country people would vote for the conservatives the way they always had before.
It seems that Perth Now have only just posted a story on today’s Policy announcements, but get it totally wrong re the complaint to the WAEC
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24279421-2761,00.html
Here is the WA Electoral Commission Report of the 2005 State Election.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/documents/state/2005%20State%20General%20Election%20Report.pdf
PerthNow didn’t even run Labors public transport cheaper fares announcement today as well
Not during the day, but just mentioned in that sotry I posted.
I’ve noted that Perth Now are very selective in Election stories they do report on - stuff that ensures that Labor gets bagged on, and it’s always by the usual subjects.
It pains me to say this, but The West’s Online Election section has been quite good and they have reported policy announcements from both parties as soon as they’ve been announced.
And this is the extent of the Cheaper Fares story.
How pathetic.
Frank - do you have any more detail on that fare zone thing? I live smack bang on a zone boundary, so this will affect me. Have they just merged zones 1+2, 3+4 etc or similar?
Details in the Media Release.
http://www.visionwa.org.au/mediareleases/cheaperfares010909.pdf
West watch.
Page one lead: “ALP under fire over ‘green power’ claims”. “Alan Carpenter, who on the weekend trumpeted that a vote for Labor was a vote for renewable energy, plans to supply nearly eight times more additional electricity from stations powered by fossil fuels than environmentally-friendly sources. With the election campaign in its final week, Labor’s advertising has tried to (emphasis mine - PB) hammer home the message that it is the party for renewable energy. But figures provided by the Office of Energy show that Labor will add 1100 megawatts of power to the South-West grid by 2009 using coal and gas-fired stations”. Supporting opinion from the Greens and the WA Sustainable Energy Association, who must be pleasantly surprised to suddenly find themselves gaining such prominence in the paper.
Page six: “Esperance lead report unlikely before election”. The timing of the report would seem to be in the hands of the consultants, though they could well be wary about causing the government avoidable discomfort at a sensitive time. Side column: “Carpenter won’t talk about plans for Roberts”. Smaller piece on Housing Industry Association criticising both sides.
Page seven: Robert Taylor’s Campaign Sketch gives Carpenter a wide-ranging bollocking on uranium policy, concluding: “Later in the day, the Liberals complained to the WA Electoral Commission that Labor’s advertisements on uranium were completely (emphasis mine - PB) misleading, which they are. But as we’ve already discovered, truth is harder to dig up than a WA uranium mine in this campaign.”
Continuation of page one lead with graphic illustrating the government has built more non-renewable than renewable power stations since coming to power. Small item on Buswell’s claim of “incredible hypocrisy” that Labor has criticised it for refusing to submit election promises to Treasury when Labor used a private firm in 2001.
Page nine: “Police union wants ban on takeaway alcohol” (in Halls Creek).
Smaller items: “Liberals match rail promise”; “Barnett reckless on call to scrap BHP royalties deal, says Ripper”. Opening para of the latter framed negatively for government (”Labor is refusing to reveal …”).
Page 10: “McGowan won’t agree to sacking principals”, giving a measured account of McGowan’s refusal to commit to playing along with the Feds’ school standads proposal.
Smaller but still substantial item on the Michelle Roberts heritage properties affair.
Page 11: “The P-plate driver involved in the crash in which three teenagers died late Friday would not have been allowed to carry the young passengers if restrictions proposed three years ago had been adopted”.
Page 20: Paul Murray on the inconsistency of Labor’s anti-uranium stance with the federal and other state parties.
Page 22: Two letters criticising Labor over uranium; one pox-on-both-their-houses; one criticisng Barnett; one praising Labor on GM; two smaller anti-Labor letters.
“West watch”
Having read that through its obviously “fair and balanced” Liberral Party may as well hav written it , very little objectivity & one can not asume such data will not influence votes
Also because the Government is in Caretaker mode reports like this cannot be released.
56 SeanofPerth Says:
“Helen oh please, stop acting like some NIMBYs actually represent the community, the City of Stirling passed its amendments with overwhelming approval from the local community. Most people in that area are in favor of development, and being pro development isnt going to hurt someones campaign.”
SeanofPerth - how about you show me the evidence where the local community has overwhelming approved high-rise?
And Sean, I know the work that Bill Stewart and Elizabeth Re have done for the community. All Liza Harvey seeks to do is to make a personal profit from her properties being turned into 8 storey buildings. She doesn’t give a damm for the community and sneers at residents’ concerns - I’ve heard her at meetings and read her letters to The Stirling Times.
Liza Harvey will lose votes for the Liberals - but we have to wait until Saturday to see that. It is more likely that ALP will win, and not the Independent.
lol, good old west watch, why dont they just say “Vote Liberal”
This is Ripper’s reasoning according to WA Today.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/ripper-tears-into-liberal-promises-20080901-4707.html
“Why don’t they just say ‘vote Liberal’”
But they, have, and they will.
SeanofPerth
#80
“lol, good old west watch, why dont they just say “Vote Liberal”’
You’re right , but rhis method of “presenting” ‘news’ is intended to influence voters on basis its objective news reporting Reluctant to say this however cann’t help thinking sometimes that a ‘left’ version of ‘oz’ would be a counter weight to slanted Media
Forgot to post this on sunday, but was wheeling past Miss Mauds in the Carilion and noticed their Beaqn Poll.
As of Sunday approx 1pm the count was:
Morning Tea Party - 61
Democrats - 1
Greens - 40
ALP - 145
Liberal - 180
Nationals - 3
Others - <20
Note these are approximate figures.
“Morning Tea Party”
where ar there preferences being directed to Frank
Ooo, that reminds me. They cleaned out the tubes at the Belmont Forum Miss Mauds, got a new poll going… last week sometime, the Greens had an almost full tube and were leading both Labor and the Liberals about 3 to 1 (didn’t see exact numbers, had heavy shopping bags); nothing to Democrats / Nationals / Other. Very interesting, especially in HSV jacket-wearing bogan hell. Either someone who works there was having some fun and games, or Alison Xamon is about to drag her #2 into the upper house with her.
Ron: the ‘Morning Tea Party’ is separate. It’s all part of the cunning plan to make Miss Maud (yep, she’s a real person) premier. Just in time, too, what with Carpenter closing the bar at Parliament House… they can have OK coffee and overpriced cake instead.
William, why should it be so surprising that Morley is in play? Morley is essentially the new Ballajura, which was Liberal held until 2001, and marginal Labor before 2005. From your WA 2005 page, it seems a very lacklustre Liberal campaign blew the margin out above 13%. The new Morley takes in the better Liberal bits of Ballajura, cutting the margin by 4%, which would make it line-ball on 2001 figures.
I’d say there’s more chance of the Liberals picking up Morley than some other seats lower on the pendulum like Mandurah and Balcatta. Certainly, there’s room for a rebound after the huge swing last time- it could be closer than the margin suggests.
Also, I’d probably pick Collie-Preston to stay with Labor. Mick Murray is obviously a huge vote winner down that way; in 2005 he took a marginal seat and made it safe, against the trend. The redistribution has added areas where he (and Labor) have never campaigned before, so his strong personal vote plus more active party involvement should boost the notional margin by a few percent. It’s probably the opposite of Morley; I can see Labor holding it while losing ’safer’ seats further up the pendulum.
#79 Helen….So Helen, have you seen much in the letterbox from the candidates in Scarborough?
I can’t comment on the last WA election predictions, but I can on the last Federal Election predictions, and from what I saw, William Bowe did pretty bloody well. (courtesy Bryan Palmer’s Oz Politics)
William Bowe (Poll Bludger)
84 seats ALP
Simon Jackman
54% ALP (+/-2%)
88 seats ALP
Malcolm Mackerras
89 seats ALP
Peter Brent (Mumble)
90 seats ALP
Possums Pollytics
54.9% ALP
94 seats ALP
Geoff Lambert
55.5% ALP
97 Seats ALP
Sean of Perth
Of course you are not feeling it on the ground, if you can feel it at a La bore Party Launch, Labor might finish 3rd behind the green
Is the Snifferals really just playing dead in WA? I guess Carpenter’s backflip on staying the course had left the Snifferals without policy, so it has become just a referendum on Carpenter
91 dovif - your prediction?
Just how accurate are these bean polls? Whenever I go to Miss Maud’s during election season I always notice the Liberal column is the highest - surely the somewhat older age demographic that frequents MM would affect this?
Also, the Liberals column is always higher in the Garden City Miss Maud’s than in the Carillion one. The Muffin Break bean poll in GC in contrast had the greens out in front! Quite bizarre really…
William, you still have Moore showing as Liberal retain rather than National gain. For the record, I agree with you; the Nats to end up with 4 lower house and 2 upper house seats
Helen (number 12), You support for Independents in Scarbourough and Carine is worthy but your facts slightly wrong… While the Liberal Candidate is pro-highrise, the ALP candidate for Scarborough is certainly not pro-highrise.
William and others,
Allow me to assure you that Jandakot is gorrrn as far as Labor is concerned, and Forresfield is line ball. I’d be surprised if Labor lost North West though.
Any thoughts from anyone on John Bowler’s chances in Kalgoorlie?
89 mr orange - letterbox drops from candiates: lots from Scott Blackwell, in fact, 3 items yesterday: calendar, card with local school promises and brochure with pictures and statements from various locals giving their support for him. On all his advertising, the “Dr” is very prominent and he’s “caring for Scarborough”. I read somewhere that he doesn’t even live in the suburb any more. As a family, we certainly don’t care for him as he caused injury to a family member that resulted in several operations and permanent disability. Definitely NOT getting a cross on our voting slip. A previous posted letter included a “meeting your local candidate” document, although this was sent after the first all-day session at Westfield Innaloo (how much did that cost the ALP?). This paper was received only 2 days before the 2nd session, for which you had to RSVP - I rang the number and left a message but nobody called me back. Very obvious that the ALP are spending up big in Scarborough electorate.
Brochure from Elizabeth Re yesterday and also the Greens Senator Scott Ludlam about a light rail network for Perth. All of the above 3 candidates have contact details on their documents.
By contrast, none of Liza Harvey’s stuff has contact details - if she wins, that’s an ominous signal for the electorate: she doesn’t want to hear from us! Liza Harvey has told us about her strong plan for Scarborough - 5 statements that have been refuted by the ratepayers’ association in their document. Nothing from Liza Harvey for almost a week.
I sincerely hope that bunch of NIMBY whingers in Scarborough don’t have any impact on the result.
97 Matt C - what do you know about the ALP’s and Liberals’ plan for Scarborough and how the planning process has been carried out?
The ALP will almost certainly, on present trends, lose - Kingsley
- Darling Range
- Bunbury
- Ocean Reef
- Jandakot
- Riverton
Labor will also have real line ball fights on its hands in - Swan Hills (this is back in the undecided column, courtesy of a train)
- Forrestfield
- Mt Lawley
- Collie-Preston
- Joondalup
On top of those, Labor are an outside chance of losing - Morley
- Kimberley
The Liberal Party’s only real chance of a loss is in Kalgoorlie, and that would most likely be to Bowler, although Labor could jag it. Much more likely loss to Bower though.
So here’s my prediction….and its a massive limb I’m going to go out on. The ALP to lose Forrestfield, Collie Preston and Swan Hills, Bowler wins Kalgoorlie. so now you have ALP 29, Lib/Nat/Con Ind 29….the balance of power goes to Bowler, or its a conservative government.
Bye bye Labor, in a cliffhanger….watch Forrestfield, the election will be won and lost in that seat.
Helen,
Absolutely nothing at all, nor do I care. I don’t begrudge you or anyone voting on the basis of those issues. Indeed, I think it’s admirable that you’re attempting to get information about your candidates in order to make an informed choice.
However, I hope that your small issue (though it’s significant to you and other local residents, it’s a small issue) does not have any impact on the overall result. In other words, I hope that the seat of Scarborough does not turn out to be significant in determining who wins government.
I too am from the northern suburbs (though I now live in West Perth), and have long resented the attention that the relatively wealthy residents of Scarborough and Cottesloe are able to command.
It was interesting to hear on ABC radio this morning Christian Porter’srefutation of the veracity of Labor’s Barnett - supports - uranium - export - through - WA -ports ad.
According to Porter the true Liberal position is that the Party will not allow uranium export through any port where people are put at risk. This of course is intended to imply that no populated port area such as Fremantle will be used.
In fact these are weasel words intended to give the Libs an out if and when uranium export takes place through ports like Fremantle.
As Barnett and the Libs are already on record as saying Yellow cake production and handling is not dangerous, when the export licences are issued they will merely say the material is harmless in its then state and can be transported through, for example, the Perth Metropolitan area, without the Libs having broken any commitment.
At no stage have the Libs said that radio active material or yellow cake (the same thing, really) will not be transported through built up areas or exported from commercial ports.
Their argument will be “we believe it is safe, therefore there is no risk, therefore Fremantle is open slather for export purposes”. Circuitous, begs the question, dishonest and deceptive. Says it all really.
I was in Perth last week and felt a lot of similarities to the Queensland election of 1995. There is a significant mood to punish Labor, but not necessarily change the government. Many people believe a change of government is not possible so the old protest vote will be back.
I’m tipping a liberal vote of somewhere between 51 and 53. Swings will be smaller in the change of government seats as voters will be less inclined to protest, but increase as we rise up the labor side of the pendulum. Whether or not this returns labor by a nose as predicted by William or elects the Libs will depend on candidates final days performance/ media coverage and luck.
Remembering in 1995 that Goss held on by just one seat, but was effectively 2% of a wipe out.
Michael Jones @ 102,
You’re not from Alice Springs, are you Michael?
100 Matt C - surely it’s a combination of local issues and what’s-best-for-the-state issues that should decide the outcome? Of course, there are those diehard ALP or Liberal supporters who weigh the issues before deciding who gets their vote. Anyway, coastal development is an issue for all West Australians, as well as for some coastal residents in particular. In the Scarborough electorate the issues are high-rise and traffic. In general, the WA community is not being listened to by the politicians and I believe that Saturday’s results will show that.
As to the “attention that the relatively wealthy residents of Scarborough and Cottesloe are able to command”, there is a huge difference between Scarborough and Cottesloe and the 2 suburbs are being treated very differently by their local councils and by the ALP and Liberals - don’t forget where Colin Barnett and a load of other politicians live! Scarborough’s demographic mix is being exploited by the current State Government and the Liberals promise to be no different. Scarborough has very mixed housing and socio-economic types. By the way, the proposed high-rise affects Karrinyup, Wembley Downs, Doubleview, City Beach and beaches north to Hillarys. Imagine being able to see not just the blott of Ob City from Fremantle or the Hills, but multiple buildings almost as high due to the varied topography of the area.
You have chosen to live in a high-rise area. Many thousands of long-term Scarborough/other suburbs did not.
101 Fulvio - The Liberals haven’t even formed government, let alone allowed uranium to be shipped through fremantle. It’s hardly deceptive or dishonest at this stage when they haven’t done anything. One could accuse both sides of dishonesty and deception (re. Labor’s uranium ads, Lib lack of IR policy)- I think that’s a given.
By the way, if they ever need to transport uranium, I would be quite happy for it to go right past my house. Honestly, it’s like being in pre-school the way everyone’s getting into such a fuss about it.
Garry Bruce
Labor by 10 seats
cannot see a change
Helen: “surely it’s a combination of local issues and what’s-best-for-the-state issues that should decide the outcome”
Yes, you’re right. Sorry, I was probably being a bit petty.
It’s a reflexive thing on my part, I suppose… All those suburbs you mentioned are wealthy suburbs, and I guess I resent any disproportionate focus on issues that affect those areas. I grew up in Craigie, a fairly bleak suburb that reeks of sewage from the adjacent processing plant whenever there’s an easterly breeze. I’m quite sure that many people in WA would love to have the problems faced by Scarborough residents. Nevertheless, you’re quite right that it’s an important issue and that voters like yourself should base their vote on whatever issues they feel are important.
I was just prematurely expressing dismay at the possibility that a relatively minor issue could overshadow larger things such as public transport, health, education, etc.
Anyway, sorry, this has drifted off topic. Back to the election.
I think William.s assessment over estimates the number of seats the libs will
win
but the difference is very small…….. at worst a narrow lib or minority Govt
(anti-Labor) through to a slightly increased labor majority……..
if labor held all their notional seats and retained Albany and Geraldton
and maybe won Kalgoorlie
I think the least likely result is a workable liberal majority
PS: has centrebet or simliar listed individual seat odds?
Boy after reading the posts here I’d better put the house and bank balance on the Fibs at $3.50
I’ll be able to buy 3 houses then!
Re individual seat odds: Doesn’t appear so, Mick.
I was womdering how much liberal mail others have received. I live in Forrestfield seat. Have received lots of stuff from the ALP guy. One about the new primary school, graffiti, bio and a few others. Also received a nice one from a local resident about the new community stadium ALP will build at the high school. It looks like he did it up himself as it says authorized and printed by his name at the bottom. Has anyone else had personal endorsements like this.
Still only had two things from the liberal. He has is face all around the shopping centre but still don’t know what he stands for. Kind of like the liberal party across the state I suppose. I know I will be voting for the party that invests in education in our seat. Interesting that everyone says its the seat to watch after we have been ignored for so long.
William
th seat of Moore you’ve predicted to go ftom Libs to Nats , and you wish to reflect that on sub menu page of Moore
Wndering why you felt Swan Hills is ‘lost’ , given th margin despite ALP ‘concern’
Thanks Ron, have amended Moore. Swan Hills has a retiring sitting member who left in acrimonious circumstances, Labor has an upper house blow-in competing against a local councillor, and there’s general talk that Labor are sagging in the northern suburbs (granted that Swan Hills doesn’t fit the profile of suburbs nearer the coast). However, this is by no means a confident prediction. Maybe the rail line promise will help them hang on.
In relation to the rail link in 3 years and 9 months, it reminds me of the North- West rail link in NSW, that was promised in 1992 to be build in 1995 (call me cynical, when the next election is called)
It is now 2008 and there is no rail link
Re the comments on Lib election material, a little birdy told me that the Liberal Party missed the Australia Post deadline for mail lodgement last week, and no extensions were granted….
Duke of Peredur @ 106.
I don’t follow your logic. The Liberal Party will be the Government if elected .One of the election issues is the mining and export of uranium. They have stated they will allow it to occur if elected. Will they permit its export through existing commercial ports, and if so, which?
Whether you embrace its passage past your front door is as irrelevant as whether I object to its passing within a thousand kilometres of me.
I, and I assume the electorate at large, want to know their policy. Once known, you vote how you wish, I vote how I wish.
My objection is to the deliberate manipulation of semantics, prevarication and obfuscation on the issue which the Liberals are engaging in.
Whats wrong with a yes or no answer unless they have something to hide?
Vera
#111
“Boy after reading the posts here I’d better put the house and bank balance on the Fibs at $3.50 I’ll be able to buy 3 houses then!”
Please don’t do that Vera ! think in a close call Labor will win in nail biter with 2 to 3 seats but not alot of public trend data , however th $3.50 is excellent odds in 2 close horse race Thanks William promises of rail lines always worth some votes unless other side neutralises th promise
Uranian Mining is about as good a scare campaign as the GST was
There is a nuclear power plant at Lucas Height in Sydney, and people have no problem with moving to Menai, one of the growth centers in the state
We are supposed to be scared of selling Uranium to India …. Who have nuclear weapons anyway ….. as does Pakistan
Shipping of Uranium is fairly safe, there are enough expertise around the world to do it in Europe, China, Russia, USA etc
And if we cannot find a place to store nuclear waste, there is the Northern Territory
Nuclear power is also green house friendly
The only problem is the fear factor
I was just looking at the 2005 election results and two of the worst booths were the Coogee and Phoenix primary schools which are in suburbs that have been redistributed elsewhere. I think that therefor the Greens will get a higher proportion of the vote this time.
Then, dovif, the Liberals should have no problem in shouting from the rooftops their intention to ship it from their port of choice.
Keep whistling.
Regarding what I said yesterday (on the previous thread) about abuse of official election material, I’ve rechecked what I received, and it appears that I was wrong. My bad, folks.
The Labor candidate in your electorate will be relieved.
re: Dovif @ #120
The reactor at Lucas Heights is a very small research reactor, not a nuclear power plant.
It is used for research and produces radio isotopes for medical purposes.
Follow the link for more info about Lucas Heights reactor.
http://www.ansto.gov.au/discovering_ansto/anstos_research_reactor.html
William,
On 27 August you wrote
Kimberley (Labor 6.3%): I was tempted to put the 5.2 per cent Liberal swing at the 2005 election down to the one-off of Colin Barnett’s canal proposal exciting local hopes of job creation (it was first won for the Liberals in the late sixties due to the local popularity of the Ord River scheme boondoggle). However, a reader has suggested the snap election announcement has left Aboriginal voters in newly acquired Halls Creek and surrounding communities off the rolls, making the seat potentially of interest.
The swing in 2005 was solely due to the huge popularity of then Liberal candidate Ron ‘Sos’ Johnston, the former mayor. If the Libs couldnt win it with Johnston they cant win it, despite the unpopularity of Carol Martin, the ALP member.
If Jaye left in Acrimonious Circumstances then why is she in a flyer I got today from Graham Giffard where she is supporting his Election to the Seat ? And as I’ve said many times, Frank Alban isn’t a popular chap in Ellenbrook with his comments and proposal, which was lost to impose a Parks & Gardens Levy on Elenbrook and Averley Residents because he believed The City Of Swan shouldn’t be subsidising them.
And Here is Today’s Mailcall:
Aforementioned Support flyer
Letter of Support from Pearce MP Judi Moylan for Frank Alban
Personal Letter from Graham Giffard urging a vote for him, and mentions us all by name.
Frank Alban letter complete with detachable How to Vote Card.
Giffard Flyer listing Achievements for the Electorate on one side and Promises on the reverse.
Greens Flyer.
RBA drops interest rates by 0.25%. That won’t hurt WA Labor’s re-election chances.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24281906-643,00.html
“Uranian Mining is about as good a scare campaign as the GST was”
Do you recall Dovif, how many seats the Libs lost going to that election promising the GST?
I don’t recall them going to the election promising the GST in 1996, Gary.
Ido however recall “never, ever”.
All four banks have promised to pass on the rate cut. Wonder if people will think their circumstances are improving and thus help ALP.
dovif @ #116
Dovif,
You may recall that the Greiner Liberal Government was re-elected in NSW in 1992. They promptly signed a contract to build a private motorway to the North West Suburbs. The widely held view is that this contract prevents the building of a railway line in competition to the motorway for a period of 25 years from the signing of the contract. Unfortunately, the secrecy provisions of the contract prevent anyone from finding out the details.
Gary Bruce
That was my point it was just a scare campaign, just politics. I do not see Rudd Rolling back the GST, the sky had not fallen in and Labor is no longer against GST
Plus Keating introduced the GST in Australia, he called it a sales tax
It is around in almost every country with a sophisticated tax system in the world. Labor was against it, because they think there was votes to oppose it.
The same argument can be use on Nuclear power
Gary
How big the reactor is does not prevent it from melting down, and things like half lifes does not change. We have had one in Sydney for over 30 years.
Barry
Since the NSW ALP promised in 2001 to build it and had just promise to build it again in 2008
I gather from this, they have some way of getting around it
The upgrade at Chatswood Station was done in 1998 in anticipation of the new rail link, which was never build
Can anyone tell me what the betting odds were this time last election…..my recollection is that it looked even worse for the ALP??
Sydney Punter Bets Big on ALP Win.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/20000-bet-on-labor-20080902-47oe.html
FC….Do you recall what the odds finished on at the 2005 election?
Wasn’t there some talk a few days ago about a woman wagering $200,000 on a Liberal win? I think she was described as being no dill either.
The Chatswood-Epping rail link is nearly finsihed!!!
Seriusly. There are actual tracks and things now.
130 Fulvio - I didn’t say anything about the ‘96 election.
Try the ‘98 election.
“The Federal election of 3 October 1998 was held six months earlier than required by the Constitution. Prime Minister John Howard made the announcement following the launch of the coalition’s GST policy launch and a 5-week advertising campaign.”
Well they obviously lost a few then Gary. Too bad it wasn’t enough.
Article on Ocean Reef swinging towards the KLibs, but note that the people interviewed are all over 55.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/swing-is-in-the-air-in-ocean-reef-20080902-47ic.html
Barry (132)
What a disgrace it is that governments of both persuasions can get away with signing contract with secret clauses which the voting public are not permitted to see. How are we supposed to make judgements about how these turkeys are spending OUR money if they won’t give us all the information?
It is totally undemocratic and sooner or later we, the electorate, will need to start punishing governments that indulge in this practice until they finally get the message we will not be treated like mushrooms.
Kingsley hinges on the Undecided.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/kingsley-hinges-on-the-undecided-20080902-47im.html
That Ocean Reef article was absolutely shocking, a 68 yr old, a 55yr old and the local 50yr+ pastor are representative of Ocean Reef? Give me a break
Who will be the ALP Leader if Carpenter goes down? Any tips chaps?
there’s a nice line at the end of that Ocean Reef piece:
“I think Labor has too much money to lose the fight, but they are going to get a black eye. They are going to get a nice shiner.”
pretty much sums it up - voters want to spank the ALP, but don’t really want the Libs in power
I think William has got the result about right - the slimmest of majorities for the ALP
I totally agree, where are the young people in the article. I reckon the local media are going into overdrive to elect Barnett with the number of crap articles this week.
btw sean, if you want a scan of the Giffard Flyer I mentioned, email at fcalabre at bigbpond.net.au (replace the at with @
Carpenter has maintained he will remain leader if the ALP loses. Barnett on the other hand……
Today’s junk mail in the Scarborough electorate:
Card from Liza Harvey with her name in a larger font and a bigger picture of her. Front has a picture of her talking to a couple of mums (one with baby) and you can see older children in the background: Liza Harvey, working for better neighbourhoods. This is a lie and misleading in the extreme!
Other side says she “has lived in Scarborough for 16 years, working closely with the local community on road, community safety and education issues”. I know for a fact that when a local group was trying to sort out a local traffic issue, Liza’s input threatened to ruin it for the community.
Otherwise she’s going to save RPH, get more police on the beat and replace a decrepit local school (P&C president of said local school appeared on Scott Blackwell’s leaflet yesterday, supporting him). This school has been fighting state govt for over 2 years to re-build this school and the funds were apparently promised before the election, so neither Scott Blackwell nor Liza Harvey should be claiming victory there. Also funding for teachers and more parking spaces at railway stations north and south (3000 places isn’t going to go very far, Liza).
The other Lib leaflet is rather empty. It’s almost A4 sized, with a bit of grass, sky and cloud on one side and “After eight years, what have Labor really achieved?” Turn it over to an almost blank page and it says “Don’t worry, we couldn’t think of anything either …”. The reverse says “If Labor couldn’t deliver in 8 years of boom … they don’t deserve another 4. Vote Liberal, better government, better state.”
I’d go along with that, but the Scarborough electorate doesn’t deserve Liza Harvey (still no contact info on her documents).
The Labor margin in Kingsley in 2005 was actually 0.8 per cent, not 0.1 per cent as said in the WAToday article.
As far as I can determine, 2017 has always been the completion date the NSW ALP has given for the North West railway. If my maths is correct 2017 is 25 years after 1992.
The Chatswood Station upgrade is part of the Epping to Chatswood Railway Project not the North West Railway. The upgrade of Chatswood station is still in progress - the legislation for the project didn’t pass through parliament until about 2002.
Follow the link to read more about Chatswood Station upgrade:
http://www.tidc.nsw.gov.au/ViewSite.aspx?PageID=34
This thread is supposed to be about the WA Election. So I will not make any more comments about NSW railways here.
that’s alright frank, but thanks anyway
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if the WA media to be believed it’s a shoo-in for the libs, but everybody knows that is utter crap
PerthNow and Sunday Times are News Ltd rags, enough said, The West, nothing needs to be said, and WAToday got most of its new ‘journalists’ from The West.
Labor will be safely returned with a health majority, people need to take a breather and not get swept up in the media hysteria. The betting markets are usually the way to look, and the Libs chances have ‘tightened’ from no way in hell to no way in hell
Dovif:
NSW ain’t WA - we don’t have public-private partnerships or secret contracts. Imagine Greiner building the Cross City Tunnel (without tolls), then Carr/Iemma the Parramatta-Epping line, all with public money - that’s what we’ve got. The Libs like roads and Labor like rail, but on the whole WA is much better than NSW for getting stuff done.
Bearing in mind a few years ago the WA government promised to build a line to Mandurah down the freeway, and then did it, it’s fairly safe to assume they’ll do it again this time. Despite some suburban mum whinging at Carpenter on the news last night, I think that’ll make Ellenbrook and therefore Swan Hills OK for Labor. And on the subject of rail, I’d expect to see a much smaller swing to the Libs in Mindarie than in the other northern suburbs seats, as they get the Butler extension. Maybe even a swing to Labor? Either way, John Quigley’s safe as houses.
re train links to Ellenbrook - hasn’t this been the promise for the last 10 years (well, it was to Stratton, but Ellenbrook’s now the likely end point)? That’d be like the promises to build a line to the airport (I remember D’Orazio saying it would happen if he was elected). These are in reality crumbs compared to the major undertaking now completed (Perth-Mandurah) and surely are not the key element of an overall transport plan. the North-West line in Sydney might actually be part of such a plan (although its all just on paper, predicated on the sale of electricty, AAA ratings etc etc), but they all become just promises, an exercise in wasted wish-fulfillment to quote Jerry Rubin.
My prediction is that the ALP will be returned. It will be narrow, say 2-3 seats, but be carried not on the primary but on preferences - the electorate giving the ALP a warning. I have no idea what will happen with the LC - probably cross benches with balance made up of FFP, Greens & Nats.
I must say I still find it hard to believe a party that has rushed together some policies with a very recently installed past leader (after much internal difficulties) and has as its shadow treasurer a discredited (in the voters eyes) past, has a real chance of forming government. Political history surely would indicate it is unlikely but I guess we are talking about the wild west (tongue in cheek).
Grylls Tight Lipped on who he’ll support if the Nats get the Balance of Power.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/02/2352631.htm
#155 seanofperth…..LOL. Very good.
has any polling been done by gender?
I am curious to know whether the ‘Lib Boys Club’ and the Buswell antics have had any traction with female voters
any feedback from the doorstep?
“… they will take that support for granted like they always have.”
There’s your answer in a nutshell, unless you you can refer me to the last WA Nat - Labor coalition.
and on the future leader question: has Barnett committed to serve a full term in Parliament even if he loses, or is Deidre Wilmott on a promise of a swift byelection?
Deidre will be the member for Cottesoe within 18 months either way, skink.
And will be known as the Liberal Party’s version of Rita Saffiotti, who of course was Carpenter’s Chief of Staff before being endorsed for West Swan
I’d say Grylls going on like this will get them Moore and an upper house seat in Mining and Pastoral, and give North West to the Libs (by preferences). Maybe even a second seat in Agricultural? They haven’t had that for a while, not since losing one of them to One Nation in 2001 (and then to the Libs).
Hmm, this is from Daffy on Perth Now
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24282487-5017005,00.html
And they’ve updated the WAToday article as well with this from Sportingbet.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/20000-bet-on-labor-20080902-47oe.html
Graham Giffard flier courtesy of Frank:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/giffardsupport1.jpg
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/giffardsupport2.jpg
Oi GB,
And I find it hard to believe a party that is rife with improper behaviour from top to bottom. Just name the ex-ministers.
And just what is the Jaye Radisich story ? How many 32 years retire?
I must also add that Graham Giffard lives in Darlington, right on the Border of Swan Hills and Darling Range, in fact his street runs through the border itself, I think he’s on the Darling Range side, so he cannot really be considered a “blow-in” as you assert. On the other hand Frank alban is actually a City of Swan Councillor, but for the Guildford Ward and actually lives in Guildford - so in reality Graham Giffard is more local than Alban is.
WB: thank you for the Giffard flyer… I live in Mundaring and so far have only received on thing from Giffard… nothing from other candidates… perhaps they’ve given the Hillbillies the big miss and focussing on Ellenbrook…
Interesting to see one of Graham Giffard’s pre-selection oponents endorsing him in that flyer….
Interesting, I’m in Middle Swan and have got 16 items from Giffard, and I’m aware that Darlington & Parkerville have been getting stuff as well - I wonder if Mundaring has missed out because of Distribution issues, I know that most of Graham’s stuff has been sent via Australia Post and some via the mob who deliver the local papers etc.
169 Edward - Those ministers are ex because Carpenter did something about it. That still doesn’t make the Libs electable IMHO.
No, she was seeking pre-selection in West Swan, but that doesn’t stop her supporting the Party and is hard at work with Vince Catania
Apologies, Frank is correct.
And I should know, she’s my second cousin
Not a bad sort, either.
For a New Right type
Stewart J
#157
I gave same 2 to 3 seat opinion in #119 , didn’t mention prefs but were implicit , and unlike our discussion on NT prefs , no disagreement as they’re consistent with policy & will decide numerous seats Assume you hav more HoR & less policy adherance for widespread support than Senate only & stricter more focused policy adherance
Dovif
#133 “Plus Keating introduced the GST in Australia, he called it a sales tax”
Do not recall PK doing that ?
Wrong, it was MUCH earlier than Keating
http://www.ato.gov.au/corporate/content.asp?doc=/Content/tax_history.htm
Would love to see how Carine is shaping up, i heard the Lib guy there is shitting himself over an independent unbalancing the ledger.
Another 3 items in the junk mail.
Giffard How To Vote Card
Giffard Flyer with achievements and plans for the Swan Valley.
Liberal Cloud flyer as mentioned by Helen
shittt
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=95640
174 gb - the labor party in wa is dirty. better a bunch of honest boofheads then a bunch of small time crooks on the make.
From The West:
“Poll shows Labor would lose election
In a surprise election move today, Labor has released polling which shows it would lose if the State Election were held now.
Labor’s vote, according to its own research, has dropped 6 per cent in four days to 45 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.
The Liberal two-party preferred vote of 55 per cent would see Colin Barnett record a comfortable victory.
Senior Labor officials said they believed negative Liberal advertising which began on the weekend had had a big impact on the voting.
They conceded that they were releasing the polling in a bid to stem a protest vote.
The polling shows that 61 per cent of people in five marginal seats still believe that Labor would win the election, compared to just 18 per cent who believe the Liberals would win.
Labor officials believe that people are indicating they would vote Liberal as a protest, not believing that it would cost Labor government.
PERTH
ROBERT TAYLOR”
seanofperth
I note that this story isn’t on any other news site and is written by Robert Taylor - he using this as payback because he didn’t get the other leak ?
its clearly a policy to limit a protest vote, i just hope they are going about it properly
184 Edward - yeah, yeah. Now your prediction?
I’ve heard that on ABC Radio news, Matt Birney has come out and congratulated the West Australian for their support of the Liberal Party.
I predict you’ll still parrot the party line whatever the result GB.
This internal polling leak is on the back of other polling in the past showing that people don’t believe the Libs are ready to govern. What better way to play on this feeling? Mind you it could be so.
189 Edward - yeah, yeah. Now your prediction?
It’s interesting to note that Labor last time leaked it to media outlets other than the West, and the West sort of played it down, while Today’s polling has so far only been to the West.
I wonder why this strategy ?
The ALP is losing this election and you can tell that by the issues it is running. If it was winning on its record why run the uranium staff. Keep it bread and butter that is what state politics is about. Its advertising is poor and the Libs much better. I wish it were not so but Barnett is going to be Premier next week unless there is a stuff up at Liberal HQ.
Birney: Liberal Party aided by ‘The West’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/02/2353625.htm
and the ABC has just posted ther Labor Polling story.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/02/2353626.htm
Why is Birney doing this? You’d think he would keep mum.
And here is the Swing according to Anthony Green’s election calculator.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/02/2353626.htm
Whoops, wrong URL, try:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/calculator/?wa=-7.3&retiringfactor=1
Bogart - from your lips to the great god of elections’ ears mate.
However, I can’t see it. Clearly the ALP are hot favorites - the bookies are seldom THAT wrong. Obviously the release of polling info by the ALP - this time and the last - is to cool expections and minimise the protest vote. Will it work, well, many people will sit back and go ‘yes I want to give them a slap but how much of a slap will it be’. For me, I want to give both majors a bit of a slap so maybe the 1st prefs will be down a bit but the eventual TPP flows are what counts and I still say that the ALP will probably get it where its needed.
MacTiernan’s having a go at the Libs about public transport:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/02/2353204.htm
I feel a cliffhanger coming on. Isn’t it exciting! I think lots of those currently saying they will vote Liberal might end up voting for a minor party and then Labor though. When is it that people are supposed to have made up their minds - isn’t it true that most people have decided by election day?
I wonder which TV station will get the leaked data ? I reckon 7, as The West, the ABC and 7 are the 3 most popular media outlets in WA, oh and Radio 6PR.
Ch 10 News to run the Polling story
Whether the ALP wins or loses it is just not plausible that their vote has dropped a massive 7 percent in just a few days.
What could possibly account for such an earth quake and why would the ALP be so eager to pass it on to the media?
I wouldn’t be panicking yet folks. Let’s wait and see what the reputable polls have to say later in the week.
For what it’s worth, my theory is that ALP polling is actually showing a very close election and they are deathly scared that a protest vote could see them lose by a small margin. They figure that by confronting the electorate with the real possibility that the Liberals might win by default, enough voters will back off to get the ALP over the line.
Could be wrong, but that’s the kind of games they all play these days.
Hmm, 2 ads in the same break for the Libs, one with general promises and the other on Law & Order.
The State ALP’s have been dominant for so long that they really cannot believe there is a prospect they could lose.
It resembles nothing as much as the Federal Liberals last year.
The ALP’s tactics with “releasing” polling is to hope people have just lost hold of their senses and just need to be shocked back into sensibility. As the Liberals discovered last year - when the mob takes a set against you its goodnight Irene.
Its strange that the polls show people think ALP will win but aren’t voting for them. As anyone seen this trend in any other elections and what was the outcome??
agree its implausible th vote dropped 7% in 4 days , also note th polling relates to th 5 specific marginal seats that Labor were tracking
Presume Labor has internal polling in other close seats which was not disclosed , indicating other seatas swing is not as bad Also a wise political move to be underdog and cut down any ‘protest vote’
Does anyone know where one can find 2PP results per booth for the 2005 election? ive tried looking on WAEC, ABC, adam carr and everywhere else.
In particular looking for North West Coastal, (now north west) and the bits of Murchison-Eyre that are now in North West.
I am trying to draw up the spreadsheet for election night results, currently I think the only person with the results might be Antony Green - so hopefully he reads this as I couldn’t find his email anywhere.
Would be much appreciated if anyone can pass on the data.
205 Darn - I believe that is probably the case. I thought of that myself.
Interest rate cut today couldn’t hurt
Here you are, Cameron. PDF unfortunately so if you want to cut and paste you’ll need to use Adobe Acrobat or some such thing.
I have a few questions for anyone - if they think they have an answer
Q: Have Labor showed any evidence of such a drop of support to the media? Last time (a week or so back) they didn’t seem to. Is this just a ploy to make things seem worse than they are? And would it work? Or might it be seen as a little too clever - and not make difference - whatever the real polling is. Seems to stem from some desperation - but maybe not THAT much desperation…
Ch 10 News had vision of the polling.
Cheers Frank.
Geof Parry on Seven says the primary vote figures are Labor 34 per cent, Liberal 48 per cent.
Yep, and my mug was in shot again
Interesting about Carpenter being more popular than Barnett and it’s Swinging Voters.
Being a long long way from WA, I am reluctant to draw conclusions about who’s likely to win or what the local issues are. But I do know a few general principles - 1. NEVER believe a political party that claims its polling shows it will lose. It’s only aimed at stemming a protest vote, and people only make protest votes when they’re very confident a government will be re-elected. The governments that really do get belted by a protest vote (Goss, Kennett and perhaps Greiner in his second election) don’t see it coming.
2. NEVER believe a bookie who says there’s a lot of money coming for a particular party, unless that party’s odds fall dramatically. Clearly, the bookies are desperate to talk up the Libs, because most money has gone on Labor. A bookie’s aim is to make money, irrespective of whoever wins the election.
An additional point…I do think, in these days of high petrol prices, that promises of new rail lines will be more appealing than usual to the voters. And Labor in WA has the extra advantage of having actually built a new rail line, so the voters might believe the new promises.
Polling is from “five marginal seats”.
I see you’ve covered my questions anyway - very interesting. And those figures William are extraordinary! I think that must be doctored a little. To claim the underdog status and scare just enough back to Labor (as has been pointed out here).
Mmmm, perhaps the marginals are looking that grim?
I wonder which 5 though ?
ESJ,
I agree with you there.
These guys have inherrited the dreaded ‘born to rule’ mentality.
Does anyone know which 5 marginals were polled? Maybe they were northern suburbs ones like Kingsley and Ocean reef. Still, the results seem to clash with the most recent Westpoll, which had Labor on 54% rather than the Libs on 55% - something’s amiss. Perhaps a strong Labor vote in safe seats…surely this would still not explain such a difference.
It’s interesting to note that this story has been covered by all the media outlets with the exception of Perth Now & WAToday(Fairfax), but last time those 2 were included but Ch 10, and The West, and I think 9 were not.
I could be wrong, but *every* single marginal seat poll over the past month has shown the Liberals well ahead.
A poll on its own is next to meaningless. A set of polls over a period of time showing a similar trend is well worth taking note of.
Labor’s in big trouble. Admit it.
The one consistent piece of polling throughout the whole campaign is that the Liberals have been ahead in all the marginal seat polling with the exception of one seat which was even. If the marginal polling isn’t turned around by Saturday, Barnett wins.
I hate to say it AC but for the first time ever I agree with you.
219 Antonio - spot on.
227 A-C - before we start crowing let’s just wait for the latest polling and then the actual election.
Thanks alot William!
Mind you there is plenty of precedent for governments getting a late swing towards them and as I said a few days ago the Bill Hayden election where he led until The Australian had a headline about a swing back to the Government greeted him on election day.
Michael Sutherland must think he is going to give Mt Lawley a real crack. I just crawled back home through various Mt Lawley suburbs and saw one of those hired single cab Hilux utes plastered in posters and pulling a trailer also plastered in posters. And even though it was quite dark, didn’t look like he was driving it. Seems like an awful lot of effort if it’s not going to be close…
Unless I’m mistaken Labor’s poll would be tracking polling, which means they speak to about 100 people a day. The party analyses this by aggregating a few days’ worth of results, but they could present the media with a one-day rogue sample and still be telling the truth. Nonetheless, the talk of a trend trackable since Friday is intriguing.
There is an interesting story here on the role of the Opposition Leader in elections.
http://www.australianpolitics.com/elections/behaviour/opposition-leader.shtml
A-C (227)
If you really believe the ALP is in big trouble you should be getting in touch with Sportingbet as quick as you can to snap up the easy money on offer. $3.40 is great odds for a sure thing, don’t you think?
As for me, I’ll be keeping mine in my pocket until I see what the professional pollsters are saying later in the week.
If the ALP is really trying to manipulate the electorate into believing they are going to lose, for tactical reasons, it is certainly working on the people on this site.
I believe that is the case as mentioned on either Ch 10 or 9, with 10 showing the actual polling page, which was only a graph, with the top part of the age breakdown.
Looks like being a late night on Saturday, esp for non-WA bludgers. Will there be the same Antony/William show as for the NT election?
Labor seats polled identifed on ABC TV as Albany, Kingsley, Riverton, Ocean Reef and Swan Hills.
And this is the Research Company being used.
http://www.umrresearch.com.au/index.html
The same company that puts out Essential Polling, that ran the MUA dispute etc.
William,
Did you record Kennedy’s Campaign Diary ? I know the ABC post video of the news stories, but they don’t post the Diary.
Peter Kennedy’s “Campaign Diary” on ABC TV:
So that’s a yes, Frank.
If UMR reseach can turn the marginal polling around in the last few days, it will be money well spent by Labor to hire good professional advice.
Steve -UMR and EMC are different mobs. Polling companies are a bit incestuous, and often sound the same (vowel - two consonants) , but those folks are different. UMR has been Labors pollster of choice for a long time, theyn use phone polls. EMC - the group that produce Essential Report use an online panel constructed by offline means.
Sorry for that Possum, but it might pay them to use both if things are as bad as they suggest.
steve @ 242 No
I note only Peter Kennedy named the seats, while the others haven’t. This is an interesting move to say the least.
So that explains the stories on WAToday on Kingsley & Ocean Reef - I wonder if Fairfax had an inkling before they wrote the stories ?
Out of those 5 seats, most really are ‘Liberal’ type seats. Albany, Ocean Reef, Riverton and Kingsley would normally be won by a half-decent Liberal Party. The question is whether the 7% swing is being repeated in seats such as Mt Lawley, Southern River, Wanneroo etc. Hopefully one of the upcoming polls will shed light on this.
Once again, does anyone know when most people decide who to vote for? I remember reading that the vast majority of people have already decided the day before election day. WIll the westpoll on saturday have any impact?
Scratch what I said at #235. The Labor polling material being waved around during the intro and outro on the ABC News looked most comprehensive.
Today’s mailbox in Darling Range:-
One from Greens Senator Rachel Siewert. Points raised, dental health care, ageing and junk food.
Three from Labor. One personally addressed letter (to Mrs Bogan) from Lisa Griffiths, same as I got late last week. One glossy A4 sheet on which a variety of political, professional and community figures extol Ms Griffiths’ virtues. One glossy anti-nuke flyer with Labor not mentioned anywhere (but authorised by Bill Johnston).
Nothing from the Libs, which vaguely surprises me.
Mount Lawley:
1. Letter from Lib senator
2. Letter from local Lib
3. 8 A3 page brochure from local Lib
We got a big brochure from Labor on weekend.
With a result that close it will be interesting to watch the upper-house vote
This is the first election with the weighted Gregory transfer system, although it still retains the flawed system of distributing excluded candidates’ vote preferences.
Preliminary review of the Queensland Senate results are indicating that under a reiterative counting system the Greens could have been elected instead of an ALP third spot.
This analysis needs confirmation and I am told the JSEM has requested a report from the AEC.
Antony Green wrote an excellent review of the “Hypothetical” in relation to the Victorian Senate result which highlighted the need for value weighted Transfer System as WA has now adopted. (Thanks)
Hopefully Antony can do further analysis on the Queensland result and calculate the result by excluding all other candidates except the ALP and LAPtop three and the Greens number one candidate and distributing the vote as though the excluded candidates had not stood.
Does anyone know if WA will be data-entering in the preferences and if the preference data will be published?
Hopefully they will be publishing the upper-house polling place results and avoid the disastrous mistakes made in the 2006 Victorian State Election.
Maybe Labor has done so much pre-emptive leaking to “manage expectations” that it no longer works, ie people understand leaked polling is intended to create a perception (that Labor may lose) that people discount it as counterintuitive.
If that’s the case the correct spin would be for Carpenter to come out and say he is confident of a strong win.
Gary Adshead with Colin Barnett talking about Grafitti .
http://www.westtv.com.au/?Channel=At+Large&ClipId=1416_WAU1458&bitrate=300&Format=flash
Question: Will the WA electoral Commission be publishing statistics on the number of daily statical account of Postal/pre-poll issues/returned before the close of the polls? This information provides a good indication of how the marginals might pan out. If as William has indicated the Government may have a one seat majority the swing in the pivot seats may be greater then the average as the parties will be fighting hardest in these seats. The postal/pre-polls can give a clue to what’s happening on the ground.
ESJ (257) - Unfortunately most of the great unwashed are not politically sophisticated enough to know when they are being manipulated. That’s why all major political parties employ spin doctors to such great effect.
PM Story on the Polling leak.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/02/2353719.htm
I note these comments frmo Matt Birney, and note Paul Armstrong’s statement.
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2353719.htm
Interesting, because Murray and Taylor seemed to have written the Libs off last week.
A shift in votes in the last week is not a new phenomenon. There is compelling evidence that it happened in the 2007 Federal election - a swing back to the Libs from polls showing around 55-45 a week before.
However, it is more an issue of voters making up their minds rather than changing them.
Few of the polls have published their “undecided” figures but I believe they are running at 10%+ which is high at this stage of the campaign. It says the election is still to be won (or lost).
Seems rather erratic - this sea-sawing - with the polls. I thought you’d just get a larger number of undecideds. And not what “appears” to be uming and awing going on….
How are undecideds factored into the polling info released? Isn’t it misleading not to publish it?
Perth Now have updated thier Uranium story to include the polling, which is really annoying as it makes no sense with the published comments.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24282485-948,00.html
Question: We all know parties do expectations management, but do betting agencies do it? When we are told an agency took a bet of $x for either party, do we know this is the truth? Are the betting agencies allowed to lie?
Simon @ 266
“Undecideds” aren’t factored in, they are simply excluded. Which means pollsters assume their vote will similarly distributed to who gave their voting intention. To do ortherwise would be just guesswork.
winston @ 269
Thanks.
205 and 213. The polling place results are a good early indicator. Assuming that they are more or less the same collector district as before if you compare the first 3 booths or 10% of the vote should give you an indication of the comparative swing early on the night. Remember you must compare only those booths with the same booths that you have recorded on the night information.
Using this method along with local knowledge I was able to declare the results for Melbourne State seat much earlier then anyone else.
Robert Ray was a master at this sort of analysis and early picks.
Polling place results are fundamental as is information on the number of postal and pre-poll votes issued before the election along with the returns.
Sadly in the past this crucial information has been left unpublished and scrutineers often left in the dark as bundles of votes seem to appear from no where unexpected and not properly accounted for. Victoria 2006 is a good example of the problems that can arise by not maintaining a open and transparent electoral process. Information and statistical data provided in a timely fashion is a MUST, even more so as we begin to adopt a computerised counting system. Three months after the election is unacceptable and can not be justified.
We should know how many postal and pre-poll votes have been issued before election day.
We should daily how many postal and pre-poll votes have been returned.
All pre-poll votes should be received back before election day.
We should know on election night or at the latest the day after the number of absentee and section votes issued which should all be accounted for.
Ideally we should also know how many ballots were issued, used, unused and returned also.
We should also have certified copies of the data-entry preference data published prior to the calculation of the results and the declaration of the poll.
*** NOT THREE MONTHS AFTER THE ELECTION HAS BEEN DECLARED ***.
The above information should be published on the Electoral Commission’s web site as the information becomes available.
This information is essential in the proper scrutiny of the ballot and will play a significant roll should the result be close.delay in the publication of this information only brings the system into question. The commission should have nothing to hide by maintaining an open and transparent electoral process.
We MUST avoid the mistakes of the Victorian 2006 state Election
Newspoll just called me for a Poll being released on Friday in The Australian.
Was the basic party questions and how committed I was to my selection. The only non-standard question was on Uranium mining. “Do you support a ban on uranium mining in Western Australia”, it might have had reference to Alan Carpenter “Do you support Alan Carpenter’s ban on uranium mining in WA” not sure…and it was only 3 minutes ago!
268 Edward StJohn Betting agencies are not in the business of losing money. They have highly paid actuaries calculating the odds and on most case they hedge their bets. Its like betting on black or red on the roulette table and occasionally going down into the numbers for individual seat. the odds chsnge on a daily basis depending on the campaign and the amount they stand to lose in the worst case scenario.
I guess they could try and fix the results and have as much chance as influencing the outcome as the media do.
Steve - sorry about the abrupt response @ 249. Possum put it much better.
But you are right that the Essential guys did the MUA dispute - and the anti-Workchoices campaign.
Abit hard to comment on unseen polls of just 5 marginals that may swing more than th rest
In any event at face value figures hav conflicts Firstly Primarys Labor 34/48 seems to big a drop in such a short term , secondly Carpenter prefferred 46/37 is aliit,e inconsistent with 34/48 , Thidly Greens votes would hav been expected to increase relative to last electon other Partys anyway & likely increase further based on such a low Laborr vote yet 2PP on those ‘leaked’ figures allows all prefs split to Labor of 60% which seems inconsistent with “leaked” primary figures , and certainly inconsistent with what a State wide poll would be likely
not suprised they didn’t include jandakot in the marginal seats - by all accounts the libs are taking a bath in that seat.
Question: Are blogs, such as Pollbludger, covered by the media black-out prior to election day?
i thought it was just no paid advertising???
Clearly Liberal insiders can’t see Barnett getting over the wire - otherwise the $3.50 on offer at Centrebet would be snapped up.
Odds of 5/2 in a two horse race is enormous!
Williams analysis and prediction, although still a Labor win (just), demands a much shorter price for Barnett.
For the betting man, probability is the key here. Take the $3.50 for the Libs and if Labor blows to $1.50 (still Bernborough odds) make your Dutch book and pocket a tidy 5% in four days.
Or do the backroom Libs know better than William - that Barnett truly does deserve his long price.
It’s only paid advertising covered by the media blackout - news and comment are permitted
William.What are the odds that who ever wins the election represents a minority of the overall electorate? To what extent does the “gerrymander” come into play in WA?
Does any one have stats showing if the Marginal Seats swing is less more or the same as the average state. It pays to do a comparison with past elections including the Federal Election to determine the magnitude and direction of the likely swing.
A seat that swung heavily last election may not have the same momentum as one that moved slightly. Barometric bench mark is a good reference point to consider at this stage of the campaign.
278
SeanofPerth I think it also prevents editorial comments on the election outcome also.
I’m surprised Bunbury wasn’t polled - especially after the scuttlebutt I heard at the ALP launch where John Castrilli and Steve Thomas were reportedly seen at the Football “Crying In Their Beers”.
Not anymore - hasn’t been for some years
bryce (279)
I think it’s more likely it would be the ALP insiders who would be snapping up the juicy odds. If you see any of them backing the Libs you can put your house on it.
Does anybody know if Brian Burke has made any comment on the election outcome? That would be more interesting.
This is from a 1993 ACMA Media Release and I’m assuming it is still in force today.
http://www.acma.gov.au/WEB/STANDARD/1001/pc=PC_90271
Labor adds concentrating on anti Uranium mining or Labor positives or , hopefully not other ‘negative’ subjects
I wonder if the Polling is a result of this Liberal Ad which is being getting saturated coverage ?
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=xuvI-K5sKnQ&eurl=http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/
And here is the Libs Law & Order Ad.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=yrAs8VaqkFs
Frank that add in your #289 is an excellent politcal add , that would win votes as its a combined positive & negative add all in one Bracks used exactly same + & - add technique to cause Jeff Kennett’s surprise defeat Only counter is to use same + & - add technique back
People have been voting at remote polls all this week in the Kimberley. The Aboriginal vote in these areas tends to be pretty solidly for Labor. However the word is that voter turnout has been down across the region by up to a third.
I have also heard allegations that the electoral commission did not sufficiently advise some communities as to when they would be turning up and that some polling places also may not have had the usual ‘polling place’ signs up. Many people did not know the that they had to vote on the given day and were off doing other things.
This will cost Labor several hundred votes, which would wipe out most of Carol Martin’s notional margin. I will leave it to others to draw any moral conclusions from this.
I agree with Frank #289. Noticed that ad and thought it the most effective so far.
My impression is that a lot of people are annoyed about issues that are essentially federal in origin. While much of this, if true, may be a hangover from the long years of the Howard government’s approach to dealing with state governments, federal Labor has not helped to date either.
I get the sense that communication channels between WA Labor and Federal Labor are still nowhere near satisfactory to the state group. Working relationships between state and federal bureaucrats and politicians appear to be extremely ordinary to me. And that is being polite. It has been hurting for quite a while in areas of social policy where the state tends to be seen as the end service provider.
Really, federal Labor should be a hot chance to pick up Kalgoorlie at the next election, but don’t appear to see it as a priority. What would the effort be worth? 5%? What is the margin? Why is it not a target?
If Labor lose on Saturday, some attention should be focussed on the Rudd government and how well it is working with its state counterparts.
Robert Taylor sounding a bit like Dennis Shanahan in reverse:
It’s surely stretching the elastic to say Labor would retain a majority from 47 or 48 per cent, unless they get very lucky.
I wonder if Robert Taylor and The West are really wanting a Labor Victory so they could continue to attack it - if the Libs Win, they’d suddenly won’t have anyone to pick on.
Taylor is trying to debunk Labor’s polling. That is to say that it is still OK to give them a good kick if you want. But I suspect that it is really close.
So let’s consider a Barnett win… He would be the senior Liberal in the land, and the other state and federal leaders would come to him for advice on how to defeat the ALP hegemony. Milne and Shanahan would write columns lauding his acumen and praising his fantastic new team… -Nah, sorry. I can suspend my disbelief only so far. It ain’t gonna happen.
William’s one-seat win to Labor scenario sounds plausible, if pessimistic, and would certainly make things interesting. Shaving Labor’s margin to within a breath of government would make it hard for Barnett to do what he really wants to do, which is to wash his hands of all things politics, and get back to hugging his sheep. He’d almost have to commit to pushing on as Lib leader, praying for a by-election, maybe for another four years of herding the feral cats in his party room. I can’t ever see that sense of commitment on Colin’s face. He comes across as someone who doesn’t enjoy the cut and thrust of politics, at least as far as media relations go. He seems always on the point of petulantly throwing his policy notes in the air and storming off.
The ALP is genuinely dismayed about what it sees in its polling of the 5 marginals, but its release of the figures is very much about countering headlines in the Worst Australian such as “Labor landslide” -a beat-up of a single poll result by a disreputable pollster. The West Australian’s reporting of the election has been abyssmal. Win or lose, I hope the ALP makes a detailed complaint to the Press Council about the slanted coverage.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/
Onselen predicts still Labor by a few seats
Taylor predicts comfortable Labor win, by 10 or so seats
Here is the direct link to the Lateline story.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200809/r288584_1232180.asx
Apparetly the Barnett Law & Order ads have been getting saturation coverage during the Morning News programs like Sunrise & Today, and the radio adds on 6PR & 6IX.
I’d like to see how the polling is once the Blackout on
TV & Radio ads kicks in at midnight Wednesday Night.
The Libs will celebrate across the country if Barnett wins. But if they do, Rudd should have a think about whether he wants more Liberal state governments to pop up or not and what he can do about it.
If Carpenter wins he will have much greater authority than he has had to date.
“Robert Taylor sounding a bit like Dennis Shanahan in reverse”
can you guarantee Robert Taylor and Dennis Shanahan ar not one and th same people
That Robert Taylor commentary on that polling data and his other psephological
“analysis” of current & past events , is quite unique , comapared to a Laurie Oakes or Michelle Grattan
Watch the Lateline Story and you’ll see Robert Taylor, he looks nothing like Sham a man
Fair enough Frank , but “Sham a man” may hav assisted with that article , it was so ‘Dennis’….’spin’ narrative turning data upside down , except narrative was to Labor
Please tell me Labor’s adds counter those excellent Liberal ones for th resons mentioned in #291
Ron,
Go to http://www.visionwa.org.au and click on downloads and have a look
Thanks for that Frank , my sense is that labor add in is no where near as good as Liberal one to catch swingers & undecided , nor as cuttingly focused
By way , am going to sleep now but before doing so whilst you’re ‘live’ , tanks for all your wonderful feedback & data its been terific & sure all other non WA PB’s feel th same way , and also when WA election dust settles hope you actiively get into ‘oz’ thread , but leave US stuff alone unlike me as spent months research on it , but with ‘oz’ politcs you’d be a great welcome contributor mate and look after yourself
The Oz on the leaked polling.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24285572-5006789,00.html
ABC TV Coverage of the Internal Polling Leak.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/09/02/2353735.htm
bugger, link doesn’t work, that and the story on Yesterday’s campaigning can be seen here.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/wa/default.htm
and click on the links in the video section.
Have just completed three online polling research for WA elections. Only one of the research had every question with the dot point starting with Liberal or Col “baby”. The other two alternated Lab and Lib as the first dot point in questions.
Today Libs have vowed to kill the massive foreshore development
http://theworstofperth.com/2008/02/14/decker-the-halls/
which is interesting because it seemed to have a lot of support, despite being absolutely ridiculous. The Worst of Perth tried to get the Libs foreshore plans some months ago but was stonewalled.
I wonder if the half arsed ferris wheel will get the boot too. If the libs win, at least my uranium shares will go up and there won’t be Swan island. There’s always a silver lining.
Ok - in last night’s mailbag I received - nothing!
However, this morning at my train station there was Ben Wyatt handing out his flyers (Oats St Station - heart of Vic Park).
Nice young bloke, I might even vote for him if I were still in that electorate.
Buswell will be treasurer under the Libs, Barnett has finally confirmed this. Will this have an impact?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/03/2354081.htm
If the Libs have killed the foreshore development, they’re doomed. Big, vulgar, glittery and expensive, it was perfect for Perth and likely to be hugely popular.
This could be almost as big a mistake as getting BHP offside.
It wasn’t just the Dubai-on-Swan proposal they want to can, but Alannah’s Notwork City policy. Those of us who’ve become interested in planning matters will be intrigued.
Also, heard Bill Stewart (Carine Independent candidate) and Katie Hodson-Thomas (present Carine Liberal member) on radio this morning. I don’t think they were appearing together. Katie denounced Bill for standing as an Independent, saying he should have sought pre-selection if he’d wanted to stand for the seat. She was very angry - another good sign for Bill. I have heard that the Croation tax accountant who has no connection to the Carine electorate has connections to NCB and that other behind-the-scenes puppeteer, Troy Prickard. He is currently Mayor of Joondalup, pushing high-rise at their beaches, against the wishes of the community and was formerly elected as a Coastal Ward councillor at the City of Stirling on a non-high rise platform, then voted it in. Bill Stewart was also Coast Ward councillor at same time and there’s no love lost there. (SNIP: No personal scuttlebutt please - PB). Along with what others have heard, the Liberals might well lose Carine, but Bill Stewart has said that he will support the Liberals.
Krsticevic is anything but NCB, no idea where they would come from, especially with how they pushed out Hudson-Thomas.
Regional WA voters will reach the crossroads when they vote on Saturday. Two big changes that have effected them enormously the one-vote one value redistribution seeing six regional seats abolished and eight created in the Metropolitan area and daylight saving. The ALP government enacted these changes but what did the Liberals do to stand up against them. The Liberals have always found popularity in regional WA after the 2005 defeat they chose in succession three Regional mps but when it came to the crunch of an impending election they chose a metropolitan leader once again. The Nationals are the only hope for Regional WA and due to the first of these changes they need former Regional ALP and Liberal Voters to help them regain party status in the Assembly and gain the balance of power in the council. At the 1974 Federal election the Nationals lost there last two Western Australian seats lets not let this happen on a state level.
315 Average Joe - Hodson-Thomas and Sue Walker in Nedlands were reported (in our accurate and reliable West Australian) to be disgusted with Troy Buswell and decided to resign from Parliament (Hodson-Thomas) and the Liberals (Walker). I have seen Walker in action in her community, but Hodson-Thomas has been absent in large parts of hers. When I sought her assistance on an issue some time ago, her electoral officer asked if me I realised that the boundaries were changing and that Hodson-Thomas wouldn’t be my member in future. So, even though she’s still my representative right up until Saturday, she has not been prepared to represent her community ever since they knew about re-shaping of Carine electorate (at least a year). Good riddance to her, I say, doesn’t matter whether the person is male or female - if they’re not doing a good job, they should go. How about politicians actually listening to and representing their communities, rather than what goes on in the party room, or am I being hopelessly naive?
its politics - every preselection is political
Walker and Hudson-Thomas were both terrible local members, but that hasn’t stopped anyone before! Its like complaining about Johnston in Cannington. Of course he is going to be a terrible local member, but that doesn’t mean he won’t win.
Buswell to reveal Costings.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/03/2353845.htm
From the totally unscientific Perth Now Poll.
Poll Results
Thanks for voting, here are the results so far:
With just days before WA goes to the polls, who will win the 2008 State Election?
Have your say on this story | Related story Read story now
Previous poll results
Labor
37%
Liberal
50%
I couldn’t care less
12%
Total votes
Total of 386 votes
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/opinion/poll/
Now this is VERY Suss - Perth Now’s “Election Guide only lists theLiberal and Labor Candidate for each seat, no Greens, CDP or others.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/index/1,21581,5017725,00.html
Only Mail Item today was a personally addressed letter from Graham Giffard about Uranium Mining with a flyer which quotes Barnett in Hansard
Helen the reason why Tony Krsticevic was pre selected is one he is closely linked with the Northern Alliance faction that is why he did not get rolled when Deidre wilmont was looking for a new seat
And two He also controls the majority of branches in Carine basically he is the John D’orazio of the liberal party
323 southernboy - thanks for that, but who and what is the Northern Alliance? Is Liza Harvey is part of that too? I can’t understand why she wasn’t booted out for Deidre Wilmott. So, if Krsticevic controls Carine branches and wasn’t going to allow Bill Stewart to stand, then why is Hodson-Thomas ranting about Bill Stewart being a political opportunist and standing as an Independent? (Sorry, questions from a very ignorant but interested bystander)
Northern Alliance is basically the golden triangle club + most people in the party in the 35->50 range who are politically ambitious. Run by Collier and Cormann.
Liza Harvey wasn’t booted because that seat isn’t safe enough for someone of the caliber of Wilmott.
Not sure what Hodson-Thomas is going on about - Bill Stewart had no hope of winning the preselection because he didn’t control the branches, so he went it alone.
The Full Robert Taylor article William Quoted last night.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=95789
well yes stewart would not have won the preselection
http://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/hansard/hans35.nsf/16ab30a0303e54f448256bf7002049e8/0f57a52375595950482570ae00300044?OpenDocument
go to that link it will tell you alot about the Northern Alliance who are the ruling faction at the moment and control the majority of northern branchs and divisions
and on Liza harvey well to get pre selected up there you have to play ball with them
Labor uranium flyer courtesy of Frank C:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/alpuraniumflyer1.jpg
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/alpuraniumflyer2.jpg
you are right Average Joe anyone who is willing to sell there soul and become loyal to the NA get a seat. unless your colin edwardes who is so unpopular in the party that Colleirs numbers in curtin voted against his will and voted for liz behjat the only one that is not one of there puppets that got pre selected in the northen suburbs
Bill stewart is bascally liz constable 17 years ago wanted to becomean mp new she was not going to win preselection because of NCB ran and won.
Carpenter defends releasing of internal polling.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/03/2354571.htm
Paul Murray on polling being released.
http://blogs.thewest.com.au/general/paul-murray-opinion-polling-manipulation/
Barnett’s response was inept , he did not nail his opinion of exactly why th polling was ‘leaked’ Then Carpenter has been given a free kick to further “explain”
/caution swingers & undecided not to make a ‘protest’ vote Smart move by Carpenter Sat will tell if its enough
FC: interesting piece at end of the piece is this:
This entry was posted by Grace on Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008 at 8:56 am and is filed under General, Politics, Opinion, Paul Murray. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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I think Mr Murray’s wife is called Grace!
And it can be confirmed via tracing the IP address
If so, it makes a mockery of Paul Murayy’s credibility - hang on, he hasn’t any to start with
I don’t understand? Paul Murray’s wife posted his opinion piece? so what?
I see Barnett has been campaigning at the site of Craigie SHS! Surprised to see him campaigning in solid ALP territory.
337 Matt C- Now that is what I call arrogance.
Craigie and Beldon each returned around 60% 2PP to the ALP at the last election:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wa2008/joondalup.htm
Why is Barnett campaigning there?
He then went to Kallaroo, which is solid Liberal territory. Why is Barnett campaigning there?
i don’t know how its arrogance to be campaigning in a marginal seat
More from Giffard via Frank:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/giffarduraniumletter.jpg
Er … because it’s in a crucial marginal seat?
Sorry Joe …
Hmm. Yeah, well. When you say it like that, I suppose it does make sense. Carry on!
340 Average - I was going by Matt C’s comment, 377, and assumed it was a safe seat. By the way, it was tongue in cheek.
just to let you no frank your candidates are on 6 pr frank alban did well now grame giffard is on
Liberal Costings have been released.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/liberal-promises-costed-at-18-billion-20080903-48qe.html
Putting my two bob on the election ads #291, I didn’t think the Liberals’ ads were that good. There is no single image or message that sticks in your mind after seeing it. Too many images and too many issues whizzing past. The only thing I can remember is Colin Barnett’s face. Is that going to move voters?
345 Gary Bruce: It’s a safe suburb in a marginal seat. Although PB shows the margin as 4.4%, so it’s not the most marginal seat around.
Graham Giffard performed very well on 6PR, for what it’s worth. Didn’t hear Alban.
yes i agree they both were good
Yep, Graham was good, but I’m biased
Didn’t hear Alban, Did Harvey mention his stance on a Parks and Amenities Tax in Ellenbrook ?
Just saw Carpenter having lunch with one of his daughters in the Carillion arcade foodcourt. He looked pretty relaxed. Lots of people coming over to say hello.
no he did not bring up the issue neither did graham i thought it may have been i line off attack against frank alban but he kept postive
#348 Barnett’s adds did not do anything for me personally either because I knew it was fluff My comments were based on potential undecided voters reactions who by definition think as of now neither Party is distinctive for there wishs and how they may react
Mentioned Bracks in Victoria in 99 in #291 because his win was a surprise and also he used a similar add technique Hope your view is shared by undecided’s
harvey did make a good point though about jayes popularity and ellenbrook is the key area i think the liberals will gain ground in swan hills but it might not be enough for them to win
Interesting WAToday/6PR are the only ones covering the costings - I’m assuming the others are going through it trying to find some holes
I can hear a liberal plant
What do people think about using family in the election? Obviously with Sarah Pallin’s current issues its topical but I was interested and a little surprised to see that Carps had been ‘having lunch’ with one of his daughters at the Carillon food court. No doubt someone will say it was an entirely private moment - I would argue it is probably one of the most public places in Perth and I don’t recall seeing him eating in there before - coincidence he’d pop up there with his kid this week?
Now, I would hate to see the families dragged into this but I think it’d be cynical of Carps to rule it out given what he’s just done. Of course, I’m curious at the line - does having your family in the flyers count as politicising them? What about appearing in interviews? What about having them help with the campaign? Is there a line and where is it? Is family always off-limits no matter how you might use them to help your campaign? I’m kinda just musing aloud here - feel free to jump in any time…
vpl, I can’t remember the last time I saw an election pamphlet without the mandatory family photo.
And both sides do it as well. I note that Frank Alban has his photo on his Election Material.
#335, his wife was probably logged in when he sent in his pap. Really grace can’t be any worse than murray, Australia’s most boring and most inept writer.
the libs ads are pretty bad. barnett looks totally exhausted, almost ready for retirement.
Carps daughter doesn’t look that pleased about being in his ad.
certainly no accident Carps was there at this time - i can’t see him being caught dead there any other time
i reckon once they appear in interviews they are fair game.
haha i was going to say, Carps daughter closest to him definately looks a bit jaded
Oh, I completely agree both sides do it routinely - I was just wondering when or at what point (if ever) does it open the families up to being targets?
I guess part of my thinking is also based on the Carps/Barnett radio interview over education last time around when Carps bashed Barnett for sending his youngest kid to a private school and Barnett got quite upset about what he considered an improper targetting of his family for political purposes… So, when are they legit targets?
They are legit targets when aren’t getting personal. Implying someone’s daughter is a slut vs they goto private school is a big huge chasm. I don’t think Barnett was in his rights to have a cry about that one.
Heck, there is a swing to Labor on the unscientific Perth Now poll.
Labor
63%
Liberal
29%
I couldn’t care less
6%
Total votes
Total of 1787 votes
You can’t get away with that one VPL.
As I recall that ABC morning show interview Barnett was trumpeting about how wonderful the State education system was under his stewardship. Carpenter merely asked him the obvious question, did Barnett’s child attend a Government school.
Barnett’s response was to attack Carpenter with a sheath of papers.
Hate to disappoint the cynics, but to me it looked to me like a father having lunch with his daughter. There were no minders or security around.
Average Joe
Would you still feel the same way if Barnett’s kid had a disability? Would you still feel the same way about Carps’ daughter if he was campaigning on a morality platform (not that I am suggesting for a minute anything about Carps’ daughter)? Is it never ok for an Education Minister to use private schools, a Health Minister to use private hospitals or a Housing Minister to not live in Homeswest accomodation (ok, the last one was a joke). You get the idea.
Frank, stop multiple voting! You’ll screw up the scientific methodology!
Fulvio - what was I trying to get away with - I RAISED THE EVENT.
VPL, next you’ll be wanting Barnett to move into a Government funded retirement village come Monday morning.
I can’t, it won’t allow multiple voting unless I reconnect and get a new IP address and/or flush my cookies, which I’m not.
Oh and heaps of Family First ads on 6PR - one just now was promising an immediate $150 top to the fortnightly pension.
Don’t get cute, you were implying Carpenter made a gratuitous attack on Barnett’s son. That was not the case.
I don’t think there is anything wrong with state Barnett’s daughter goes to a private school, that is a choice Barnett has made.
steve @ 373,
Noo, I don’t think he will be Premier.
GG, but isn’t the big Barnett plan, a long retirement and the sooner the better?
My wife thinks I’m cute. You were the one jumping to conclusions, all I said was Carps ‘bashed’ Barnett about sending his kid to a private school and Barnett got upset about it. I WAS THE ONE WHO RAISED THE EVENT. The ALP haven’t used it in their ads, no-one else has even raised it prior to me. If you object to the word ‘bashed’ I would be happy to withdrawn it and replace it with ‘confronted’. Are you happy now? There’s no need to get all precious about your beloved Carps.
So, are you saying that using Barnett’s young (I think he was an early teenager at the time) son (whom I understand - and I could be completely wrong about this - had a learning difficulty) and his family’s choice of education for political mileage was not gratuitous? Is there any possibility in your world view that someone could be a supporter of public education but choose to send a child to a private school because they felt it would be the best decision for that child… thousands of families make sacrifices to do it you know.
Sorry - that was in response to Fulvio obviously
“thousands of families make sacrifices to do it you know.”
Thousands make sacrifices in other ways for their children while sending them to government schools too, so what’s the problem?
Steve
No argument - that’s why families’ choices for their children aren’t necessarily political grist. So, we go back to my original question - when is it ok to target families/kids?
VPL, I can’t understand why you want to “target” families / kids?
People can send their children to whatever school they wish and that is not the issue. Whether you raised the Barnett incident or however it was raised is not the issue.
You chose to present the conduct of the parties in a way that was pejorative towards Carpenter.You failed to present the context in which the exchange took place, which context places Carpenter in the position of having asked an entirely appropriate question in the circumstances.
There is not now, nor ever has been, any suggestion that Carpenter knew anything about Barnett’s children in the particular sense. Why do you raise it?
Steve, good question, of course, I don’t. I can see I’m not going to get anything useful on my musings. Let’s get back to the election.
The West on the Libs Costings.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=95919
You just have to love the timing of this - trying to prop up their Liberal mates.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/03/2354719.htm
Article detailing Both Parties Costing from WAToday.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/election-costings-almost-identical-20080903-48qe.html
Just got polled by The Australian
I just saw William on the 7:30 Report.
I’m predicting a marginal Liberal Party victory.
Just saw Carpenter on TV and he looked stale and arrogant, whereas Colin Barnett actually looks like a decent opposition.
I also think the no uranium mining BS will backfire… most people don’t really care about Uranium mining(though they don’t want nuke powerplants here) and in a state like WA this will probably backfire on Carpenter. If I lived in WA I would vote Colin Barnett based solely on this issue.
Interesting times ahead.
How was I?
Barnett isn’t going to be able to use the ‘arrogant’ wedge on carpenter, because he’s Colin Barnett’s problem is that he’s Colin Barnett. Anyone who remembers the libs last term (so , not the under 25 set so much) will probably not be fond of the guy, even if they are fond of liberals.
It could go either way, although I’m still, alas, leaning to a lib win. Dark times ahead.
William, you were good although if the 7:30 report wanted to make a better program they should have devoted more time to you.
Meanwhile, at Edith Cowan University, the student Guild has assessed the five major parties, and has all but endorsed the Greens. Ranking the parties in four categories of Education, Health, Climate Change and Equity & Diversity, the parties were given letter grades. Labor has come second, with the two Christian parties bringing up the rear.
The results are as follows…
Greens (WA)…
Education: A
Health: B+
Climate Change: A+
Equity and Diversity: A+
Australian Labor Party
Education: B
Health: B
Climate Change: B+
Equity and Diversity: B-
Liberal Party…
Education: B-
Health: B
Climate Change: F
Equity and Diversity: D-
Family First
Education: B+
Health: D
Climate Change: D
Equity and Diversity: F
Christian Democratic Party…
Education: D-
Health: D-
Climate Change: D-
Equity and Diversity: D
Their justifications can be found here, along with a ’star’ system of grading the parties…
http://www.ecuguild.org.au/cms/ecuguild/pages/guild/stateelection.html
For those playing at home, ECU is the states second largest university student-wise, and has three campuses in Mount Lawley, Joondalup and Bunbury, all battleground seats.
The Guild invited all five parties to set up stalls today at Mount Lawley, but only the Greens showed. Mind you, I imagine the others were reluctant to support an event that dis-endorsed them! The general mood on campus is pretty disengaged. Many students here are unsure as to how to vote. Any news like this from other campuses?
I’m kind of jealous of all these people getting mail from different candidates. Living in Perth all I got was a flyer from John Hyde that talked about Labor in general on the first page, and inside had lots of scans of newspaper articles with Hyde ‘doing stuff’, so there’s a sense of action, but no specifics.
That, and a pamphlet from the Greens. I guess it’s my fault for living in a safe seat.
I’m surprised Colin Barnett is talking about ‘Saving Royal Perth Hospital.’ From what I’ve heard the old fittings and numerous cracks mean it’s rife with disease, and should be torn down and moved to a shiny, healthy new building before too many people die.
And it was as a result of the privatisation of the Cleaning services of the Hospital during the Court Era.
387 Frank
As a SA doc in the same situation as those in WA (Labor wants to build a new “Marjorie Jackson-Nelson Hospital” here which doctors don’t want) it’s pretty extraordinary that the WA docs would do something like that.
Is there a clear difference between WA Lib and Labor policy on the Fiona Stanley Hospital?
An overtly and grossly political advertisement paid for by hospital doctors is unfathomable just before an election. If Labor win, the doctors will get nothing as that kind of thing goes down VERY BADLY with Health Departments. All the Health Department has to say is “You made it into a political issue in the campaign and the voters endorsed our plan so fcuk off.”
I can only assume that the docs think the Liberals are going to win.
Oh geez - surprise, surprise - a student guild (and of ECU no less!) has backed the Greens then the ALP, who would have guessed?
In tonight’s mailbag - nothing, again. I sympathise Thomas - being in Cannington I am certainly not being swamped and no-one is promising to remove anything from my major roads!
Lots of people I talk to agree that RPH is past it - but they still don’t want to see it closed. Especially they don’t like the idea of losing the emergency ward nearest them.
The only thing that remined me that there was an election on was the local paper - but that left lots of wierd questions:
1. Ryan Chorley - a 25 year old Law/Econs grad - has a sub-heading ‘Experience’ in his ad? Huh? Have I missed something? What experience exactly does a 25 year old law/econs grad who lives in Kensington have of anything?
2. Bill Johnston’s ad says ‘BJ and Carps are working for Cannington’ - and yet AFAICT they haven’t actually done (or promised) anything for Cannington.
3. Greens ad doesn’t say much of anything
4. Ad about 250 trucks removed from Leach Highway… hum - bit sceptical when you promise a ban, then don’t (or only partially) implement it, then at the next election promise to implement it by Christmas.
5. A full-page ad (albeit on an even - or inside - page) for Mike Nahan. He’s taking this seriously and spending some cash
6. But the one that really had me baffled was this - the letters to the editor the Community Paper (in a very strict interpretation of the Act) requires all letters on State Election issues to have a name and full street address for publication. A letter expressly endorsing one candidate DIDN’T have an address where an article only decrying the poor viewing figures of the leaders’ debate DID have a full address published. Can someone tell me how a candidate endorsement is not a State Election issue but the failure to watch a debate is?
Yep, I was correct. I actually caught a VRE bug in the Spinal Unit in 2000 when I had a pressure area on my leg.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2002/jan2002/vre-j16.shtml
I can report there has been little activity at UWA. No real signs that an election is coming up, except for rather disengaged banter. Oh, and the presence of Christian Porter around the law buildings…seems to be on his phone constantly.
Interesting liberal flyer today which asks the usual thing about can you think of 3 good things Carpenter has done or something like that. When opened, there is a large blank, white space, at the bottom saying “don’t worry, we couldn’t think of anything either”. No labor advertising yet!
Bleh. One two-second grab.
Here it is - I appear at 4:14.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200809/r288998_1234256.asx
7.30 Report with a cameo by our William
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/09/03/2354723.htm
William,
Snap, you can delete my link and this post
i heard Porter is still lecturing at UWA out of ego. True?
If that is indeed correct, isn’t that a breach of his terms of employment which prevents a member of parliament from having a second job ?
The Curtin Guild may have other priorities than the election?
http://theworstofperth.com/2008/09/03/liquor-in-the-front/
http://theworstofperth.com/2008/08/08/ixnay-on-the-untcay/
Nothing stopping a member of parliament having a second job or business. Bill Johnston will presumably still be director of the labor party the day after the election presumably.
Nope, he steps down as State Secretary if he wins Cannington
Take heart Billbowe - the ABC can’t afford 15 seconds of fame, two is the best they can do!
heh well regardless, didn’t some Lib guy over east go overseas consulting during his term? I don’t think theres anything stopping you (well, other than the obvious of actually wanting to do a good job)
“I heard Porter is still lecturing at UWA out of ego. True?”
Hmmm…how is anyone meant to judge or know this? He is a new pollie, but I don’t think he is running around telling people he lectures out of ego. He has been my lecturer/tutor for a while and is always easy to approach, understands not all students are full time silver spooners and I have picked up that his legal mind doesn’t really match with some of the Liberal Law&Order policies.
Ego is obviously a bit of bias from the Labor guy i heard it from. But yeah, i’d say he had a contract he couldnt’ get out of.
Hmm, Ripper has found a Black Hole in the Liberal costings .
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=95937
Channel 9 already said, it is actually in the costings, Ripper was just too stupid to see evidently.
all this week the price on the libs has not moved from $3.50. I am looking at this election purely as a punter, and it is hard to imagine that if the libs thought they could win they wouldn’t have crunched the price by now, they are I imagine privy to all sorts of private polling?
True, I can see how people get the impression he has a bit of a ego…probably should have moderated my comment before, a bit harsh. When I first met him at start of last year, not knowing about his family Lib connections, I pegged him as a Labor man…showed me how well I can judge people’s affiliations!
As an aside, does anyone know what that recruitment website Peter Kennedy mentioned in his Campaign Diary was? The one for all the displaced party hacks.
I’m sure he is fulfilling a comitment because it is the right thing to do for his students’ sake.
I’m equally sure that no legal mind on either side of politics would in its non political moments endorse much of the crass and inane populism which passes for law and order policy.
$3.50 has stayed pretty consistant - the bookies don’t give out those kind of odds out of charity..
And it was Channel 9 and it’s Political Reporter Nadia Mitsopolous who caught out Barnett in 2005
I’m not sure of the nearest hospital south of RPH, but I’m in the fortunate position of living north west of RPH, near Oxford street, so I’m close to Charles Gairdner, and from the stories I’ve heard would be pretty creeped out if I was taken to RPH. It seems strange that there would be too many people concerned about losing RPH, given that it would be locked in traffic for most of the day.
I believe it would be either Charlies, or most likely Fremantle Hospital. It should be noted that the North Block was commenced in 1974, but lay idle right through the Charlie Court/Ray O’Connor period of Government, and it was finally completed during the First Term of the Burke Government.
Average Joe
#420
“$3.50 has stayed pretty consistant - the bookies don’t give out those kind of odds out of charity”
no , but they’re laying a book on a very close 2 horse race & may be trying to get a bit of balance into it
true - but you would think if ANY inside polling had shown the libs getting up you’d have seen a bit of money going there way, and apparantly the highest bet so far has been like 200 bucks.
And there has been no money whatsoever laid on a Liberal Victory since the release of the Internal Labor Polling, which must say something.
I thought william was more the strong silent type.
I’m just jealous of his curly hair.
The closest hospital to RPH is Sir Charles Gardiners Hospital and Hollywood Private Hospital
SCGH is a major trauma centre and about to get a $500m upgrade
it is utterly stupid having two major tertairy hospitals 3-4km apart from each other.
The libs RPH policy is based on sentimental stupidity of the highest proportions. even the AMA agrees with downgrading RPH
And some othe comments on Perth Now, you’d think that Labor are drowning babies by downgrading RPH.
Your never going to win closing down a hospital, good policy but joe public on the street wouldn’t have a clue.
I happen to agree - it is a massive waste having two major tertiary hospitals within minutes of each other and Charlies is probably the better option.
As for pollies having second jobs - does Jackie Kelly doing Dancing on Ice count?
I would think the nearest hospital south of RPH (with an ED) would be either Freo or SJG - Murdoch - depending on where you were (and if you wanted to try the private option). Presumably that will eventually be replaced by FSH.
Sorry - to clarify - it will be replaced by FSH in the sense that you will have a public tertiary care alternative to SJG - Murdoch in the same location (adjacent actually).
Tonight’s PM.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/03/2354799.htm
I cannot believe that Colin Barnett is privy to Internal Liberal polling, unless they are trying to hide something more dire than Labor’s.
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2354799.htm
Normally the Lib/Lab candidate doesn’t get access to the polling
But you would expect Barnett being leader would be privy to such polling if they are involved in the day to day running of the campaign.
Perhaps Porter still lectures at UWA because he is a good guy who doesn’t want to the let the faculty down given the abrupt nature of his election? Sometimes people’s cynicism is quite depressing.
Mount Lawley mail:
1 x direct letter from local lib with how to vote card ‘tear off’
Nothing from Lab.
Libs are spending a fortune in the seat.
I also would like to put in a good word for Porter, not least for his contributions to my Murdoch by-election thread.
ABC TV News item on Costings here. Unfortunately, I still cannot do a direct link to the file.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/wa/default.htm
Tonight’s Channel 9 News Bulletin including an item on Independents.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/video?vxSiteId=1929a7b6-d2c6-4f56-bacf-9ca1759ced99&vxChannel=Nine%20News&vxClipId=1201_080903_ninenews&vxBitrate=300
Mailbox in Darling Range today:-
One item from the Libs. Personally addressed letter from Tony Simpson, promising better local health care, more police resources and locking up minor dope offenders. Enclosed was a very glossy and expensive A3 sheet with a very small photo of Colin Barnett on the front and lots of policies to please the 6PR demographic. Particularly emphasises “Fully Costed, Fully Budgeted” in all policy areas.
That got delivered to Swan Hills last week, with a letter from Frank Alban.
Got some mail from Libs, Labor, and an independant this week in Scarborough. Looks like a last-ditch effort from everybody, good to see they’re all trying. Hope the winner keeps it up. No shortage of contact details for everybody there. Hate to have their phone bills.
Ch 10 just ran the ALP “The Liberal Party Can’t Run Themselves, They Can’t Run WA” ad twice in the last ad break during Ten Late News/Sports Tonight. saw that quite a bit tonight on Ch 10 and 9
When does the advertising blackout begin?
In 28 minutes local time
New thread.