The Poll Bludger’s WA election guide has been reupholstered with predictions, campaign updates and a Legislative Council page. The upshot of the first of these is that I’m tipping Labor to emerge one by-election defeat from oblivion, with 30 seats out of 59. Predicted Liberal gains are Kingsley, Darling Range, Bunbury, Collie-Preston, Ocean Reef, Riverton, North West and Swan Hills, with no corresponding losses (such as Albany or Geraldton). Labor’s victory would thus depend on Jandakot, beneficiary of the Mandurah rail line and Fiona Stanley Hospital, and Joondalup, where a 4.4 per cent margin looks a bridge too far against a sitting member, despite talk of the northern suburbs as “tiger country”. However, it should be noted that further losses in Forrestfield, Southern River and Mount Lawley are not out of the question (the latter was a target of Labor’s campaign launch promise to build a rail line to Ellenbrook, reportedly pre-empting an announcement from the Liberals); that Morley turned up a surprise poll result on the weekend; and that Kimberley can be very unpredictable. I’m tipping the Liberals to lose Moore and Blackwood-Stirling to the Nationals, if indeed the latter can be said to be a Liberal rather than a Nationals seat; Janet Woollard to retain Alfred Cove, though not with great confidence; and Bill Marmion to recover Nedlands from Liberal-turned-independent member Sue Walker. That leaves the Liberals with 23 seats, the Nationals with four and two independents.
The upper house looms as a potential bonanza for the heretofore unrepresented religious parties: my guess is two seats for Family First, 15 for Labor, 14 for Liberal, two for the Nationals and three for the Greens. I expect Liberal-turned-Family First member Anthony Fels to win a seat in Agricultural along with two Liberal, two Labor and one Nationals, although Fels’ place could be taken by Mac Forsyth of the Christian Democratic Party if One Nation falls hard enough. I’m also tipping former Liberal deputy leader Dan Sullivan to win a seat in South West, joining two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens member, although the picture here is complicated – it could be right four, left two rather than three-all, and the Greens, Family First and Nationals are all in the picture. My tip in Mining and Pastoral is three Labor, two Liberal and one Nationals, though Labor’s third seat could go to the Greens and there could be a third Liberal instead of a National. In the metro area, I’m tipping three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens in East Metropolitan (it’s not impossible the latter seat could go to the CDP); three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens in North Metropolitan; and three-all in South Metropolitan.
Here are some of the electorate-level campaign updates from the election guide:
Collie-Preston (Labor 0.9%): Early in the campaign, Grahame Armstrong of the Sunday Times reported that Steve Thomas had “spoken in favour” of mineral sands miner Cable Sands while renting a house from them for $30 a week, which Thomas argued was all it was worth. Paul Murray of The West Australian claimed Labor had planted the story with Armstrong, a one-time press secretary to Geoff Gallop, whom he accused of running it even after it had been “factually destroyed by a letter from the company supplied to the newspaper before publication”.
Riverton (Labor 2.1%): The West Australian reported on Saturday that Labor was making a “last-ditch attempt” to hold the seat by promising the Leach Highway truck ban promised in 2005 would be fully operational by the end of the year. At present the government has implemented only the “stage” of the ban, targeting trucks longer than 19 metres. Riverton has been described during the campaign by party sources as “of concern” to Labor, and “in play”.
Bunbury (Labor 0.9%) and Albany (Liberal 2.3%): The Liberals have targeted two marginals in one hit with their promise to spend $225 million building a natural gas pipeline linking Bunbury and Albany.
And here’s me in Friday’s Crikey. An important point missing from the article below is that the Buswell website was developed by Labor while he was still leader – their error was in failing to recognise that the attack looked disproportionate after he’d quit.
With so much ammunition available to both sides, it comes as no surprise to find the WA election campaign dominated by negative advertising. Liberal mailouts have depicted Alan Carpenter projecting Brian Burke’s shadow onto a wall, while the six radio ads on the party’s website feature one Whingeing Wendy after another (in an interesting inversion of the situation in the party room, two-thirds of the voices are female).
For a party caught on the hop by an early election after a term consumed by leadership turmoil, such tactics might have been an operational necessity. The positive side of the Liberal campaign has won few admirers: policy announcements have been either re-heated or half-baked, with this week’s showpiece tax cut package criticised as both too modest and lacking in detail. The one television ad promoting Colin Barnett’s leadership qualities is either a conscious attempt to project an image of bland competence, or it indicates an even greater personality deficit than first feared. The party’s newer ad is more consistent with the tenor of the campaign, inviting viewers to spend a silent 30 seconds trying to think of “three good things Alan Carpenter’s Labor has done in eight years of boom”.
However, it’s been Labor’s tactics that have emerged as an election issue as the race enters the home stretch. On Wednesday the party launched an online dirt sheet called TruthAboutTroy.com, focusing on the colourful life and times of former leader and current Shadow Treasurer Troy Buswell. This was hardly the first time a made-to-order website had been used to attack political opponents, or even enemies within (most memorably in the case of the anti-Ted Baillieu website that was traced to Victorian Liberal Party headquarters). A Liberal-authorised federal election site called unionbosses.net continues to greet visitors with tales of “union thuggery”, “dirty tricks” and “Labor’s union links”, along with audio of former ALP member Dean Mighell employing intemperate language while addressing ETU members.
Part of the problem with Labor’s intensely personal attack on Buswell was that it arrived as concern over the campaign’s increasingly negative tone was ready to crystallise. It took only a short sharp talk radio backlash for Alan Carpenter to order that the site be pulled, with state secretary and safe seat candidate Bill Johnston sent out to face the music from a hostile Russell Woolf on ABC Radio. It was a different story earlier on in the campaign, when Labor took advantage of the Liberals’ unpreparedness to saturate Olympics schedules with ads promoting the government’s past achievements and future plans. With the website episode threatening to reinforce perceptions of arrogance and cynicism, it might be time for Labor to dust off its positive message in the final week of the campaign, shop-worn though it may be.
449 Comments
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Helen,
Absolutely nothing at all, nor do I care. I don’t begrudge you or anyone voting on the basis of those issues. Indeed, I think it’s admirable that you’re attempting to get information about your candidates in order to make an informed choice.
However, I hope that your small issue (though it’s significant to you and other local residents, it’s a small issue) does not have any impact on the overall result. In other words, I hope that the seat of Scarborough does not turn out to be significant in determining who wins government.
I too am from the northern suburbs (though I now live in West Perth), and have long resented the attention that the relatively wealthy residents of Scarborough and Cottesloe are able to command.
It was interesting to hear on ABC radio this morning Christian Porter’srefutation of the veracity of Labor’s Barnett – supports – uranium – export – through – WA -ports ad.
According to Porter the true Liberal position is that the Party will not allow uranium export through any port where people are put at risk. This of course is intended to imply that no populated port area such as Fremantle will be used.
In fact these are weasel words intended to give the Libs an out if and when uranium export takes place through ports like Fremantle.
As Barnett and the Libs are already on record as saying Yellow cake production and handling is not dangerous, when the export licences are issued they will merely say the material is harmless in its then state and can be transported through, for example, the Perth Metropolitan area, without the Libs having broken any commitment.
At no stage have the Libs said that radio active material or yellow cake (the same thing, really) will not be transported through built up areas or exported from commercial ports.
Their argument will be “we believe it is safe, therefore there is no risk, therefore Fremantle is open slather for export purposes”. Circuitous, begs the question, dishonest and deceptive. Says it all really.
I was in Perth last week and felt a lot of similarities to the Queensland election of 1995. There is a significant mood to punish Labor, but not necessarily change the government. Many people believe a change of government is not possible so the old protest vote will be back.
I’m tipping a liberal vote of somewhere between 51 and 53. Swings will be smaller in the change of government seats as voters will be less inclined to protest, but increase as we rise up the labor side of the pendulum. Whether or not this returns labor by a nose as predicted by William or elects the Libs will depend on candidates final days performance/ media coverage and luck.
Remembering in 1995 that Goss held on by just one seat, but was effectively 2% of a wipe out.
Michael Jones @ 102,
You’re not from Alice Springs, are you Michael?
100 Matt C – surely it’s a combination of local issues and what’s-best-for-the-state issues that should decide the outcome? Of course, there are those diehard ALP or Liberal supporters who weigh the issues before deciding who gets their vote. Anyway, coastal development is an issue for all West Australians, as well as for some coastal residents in particular. In the Scarborough electorate the issues are high-rise and traffic. In general, the WA community is not being listened to by the politicians and I believe that Saturday’s results will show that.
As to the “attention that the relatively wealthy residents of Scarborough and Cottesloe are able to command”, there is a huge difference between Scarborough and Cottesloe and the 2 suburbs are being treated very differently by their local councils and by the ALP and Liberals – don’t forget where Colin Barnett and a load of other politicians live! Scarborough’s demographic mix is being exploited by the current State Government and the Liberals promise to be no different. Scarborough has very mixed housing and socio-economic types. By the way, the proposed high-rise affects Karrinyup, Wembley Downs, Doubleview, City Beach and beaches north to Hillarys. Imagine being able to see not just the blott of Ob City from Fremantle or the Hills, but multiple buildings almost as high due to the varied topography of the area.
You have chosen to live in a high-rise area. Many thousands of long-term Scarborough/other suburbs did not.
101 Fulvio – The Liberals haven’t even formed government, let alone allowed uranium to be shipped through fremantle. It’s hardly deceptive or dishonest at this stage when they haven’t done anything. One could accuse both sides of dishonesty and deception (re. Labor’s uranium ads, Lib lack of IR policy)- I think that’s a given.
By the way, if they ever need to transport uranium, I would be quite happy for it to go right past my house. Honestly, it’s like being in pre-school the way everyone’s getting into such a fuss about it.
Garry Bruce
Labor by 10 seats
cannot see a change
Helen: “surely it’s a combination of local issues and what’s-best-for-the-state issues that should decide the outcome”
Yes, you’re right. Sorry, I was probably being a bit petty.
It’s a reflexive thing on my part, I suppose… All those suburbs you mentioned are wealthy suburbs, and I guess I resent any disproportionate focus on issues that affect those areas. I grew up in Craigie, a fairly bleak suburb that reeks of sewage from the adjacent processing plant whenever there’s an easterly breeze. I’m quite sure that many people in WA would love to have the problems faced by Scarborough residents. Nevertheless, you’re quite right that it’s an important issue and that voters like yourself should base their vote on whatever issues they feel are important.
I was just prematurely expressing dismay at the possibility that a relatively minor issue could overshadow larger things such as public transport, health, education, etc.
Anyway, sorry, this has drifted off topic. Back to the election.
I think William.s assessment over estimates the number of seats the libs will
win
but the difference is very small…….. at worst a narrow lib or minority Govt
(anti-Labor) through to a slightly increased labor majority……..
if labor held all their notional seats and retained Albany and Geraldton
and maybe won Kalgoorlie
I think the least likely result is a workable liberal majority
PS: has centrebet or simliar listed individual seat odds?
Boy after reading the posts here I’d better put the house and bank balance on the Fibs at $3.50
I’ll be able to buy 3 houses then!
Re individual seat odds: Doesn’t appear so, Mick.
I was womdering how much liberal mail others have received. I live in Forrestfield seat. Have received lots of stuff from the ALP guy. One about the new primary school, graffiti, bio and a few others. Also received a nice one from a local resident about the new community stadium ALP will build at the high school. It looks like he did it up himself as it says authorized and printed by his name at the bottom. Has anyone else had personal endorsements like this.
Still only had two things from the liberal. He has is face all around the shopping centre but still don’t know what he stands for. Kind of like the liberal party across the state I suppose. I know I will be voting for the party that invests in education in our seat. Interesting that everyone says its the seat to watch after we have been ignored for so long.
William
th seat of Moore you’ve predicted to go ftom Libs to Nats , and you wish to reflect that on sub menu page of Moore
Wndering why you felt Swan Hills is ‘lost’ , given th margin despite ALP ‘concern’
Thanks Ron, have amended Moore. Swan Hills has a retiring sitting member who left in acrimonious circumstances, Labor has an upper house blow-in competing against a local councillor, and there’s general talk that Labor are sagging in the northern suburbs (granted that Swan Hills doesn’t fit the profile of suburbs nearer the coast). However, this is by no means a confident prediction. Maybe the rail line promise will help them hang on.
In relation to the rail link in 3 years and 9 months, it reminds me of the North- West rail link in NSW, that was promised in 1992 to be build in 1995 (call me cynical, when the next election is called)
It is now 2008 and there is no rail link
Re the comments on Lib election material, a little birdy told me that the Liberal Party missed the Australia Post deadline for mail lodgement last week, and no extensions were granted….
Duke of Peredur @ 106.
I don’t follow your logic. The Liberal Party will be the Government if elected .One of the election issues is the mining and export of uranium. They have stated they will allow it to occur if elected. Will they permit its export through existing commercial ports, and if so, which?
Whether you embrace its passage past your front door is as irrelevant as whether I object to its passing within a thousand kilometres of me.
I, and I assume the electorate at large, want to know their policy. Once known, you vote how you wish, I vote how I wish.
My objection is to the deliberate manipulation of semantics, prevarication and obfuscation on the issue which the Liberals are engaging in.
Whats wrong with a yes or no answer unless they have something to hide?
Vera
#111
“Boy after reading the posts here I’d better put the house and bank balance on the Fibs at $3.50 I’ll be able to buy 3 houses then!”
Please don’t do that Vera ! think in a close call Labor will win in nail biter with 2 to 3 seats but not alot of public trend data , however th $3.50 is excellent odds in 2 close horse race Thanks William promises of rail lines always worth some votes unless other side neutralises th promise
Uranian Mining is about as good a scare campaign as the GST was
There is a nuclear power plant at Lucas Height in Sydney, and people have no problem with moving to Menai, one of the growth centers in the state
We are supposed to be scared of selling Uranium to India …. Who have nuclear weapons anyway ….. as does Pakistan
Shipping of Uranium is fairly safe, there are enough expertise around the world to do it in Europe, China, Russia, USA etc
And if we cannot find a place to store nuclear waste, there is the Northern Territory
Nuclear power is also green house friendly
The only problem is the fear factor
I was just looking at the 2005 election results and two of the worst booths were the Coogee and Phoenix primary schools which are in suburbs that have been redistributed elsewhere. I think that therefor the Greens will get a higher proportion of the vote this time.
Then, dovif, the Liberals should have no problem in shouting from the rooftops their intention to ship it from their port of choice.
Keep whistling.
Regarding what I said yesterday (on the previous thread) about abuse of official election material, I’ve rechecked what I received, and it appears that I was wrong. My bad, folks.
The Labor candidate in your electorate will be relieved.
re: Dovif @ #120
The reactor at Lucas Heights is a very small research reactor, not a nuclear power plant.
It is used for research and produces radio isotopes for medical purposes.
Follow the link for more info about Lucas Heights reactor.
http://www.ansto.gov.au/discovering_ansto/anstos_research_reactor.html
William,
On 27 August you wrote
Kimberley (Labor 6.3%): I was tempted to put the 5.2 per cent Liberal swing at the 2005 election down to the one-off of Colin Barnett’s canal proposal exciting local hopes of job creation (it was first won for the Liberals in the late sixties due to the local popularity of the Ord River scheme boondoggle). However, a reader has suggested the snap election announcement has left Aboriginal voters in newly acquired Halls Creek and surrounding communities off the rolls, making the seat potentially of interest.
The swing in 2005 was solely due to the huge popularity of then Liberal candidate Ron ‘Sos’ Johnston, the former mayor. If the Libs couldnt win it with Johnston they cant win it, despite the unpopularity of Carol Martin, the ALP member.
If Jaye left in Acrimonious Circumstances then why is she in a flyer I got today from Graham Giffard where she is supporting his Election to the Seat ? And as I’ve said many times, Frank Alban isn’t a popular chap in Ellenbrook with his comments and proposal, which was lost to impose a Parks & Gardens Levy on Elenbrook and Averley Residents because he believed The City Of Swan shouldn’t be subsidising them.
And Here is Today’s Mailcall:
Aforementioned Support flyer
Letter of Support from Pearce MP Judi Moylan for Frank Alban
Personal Letter from Graham Giffard urging a vote for him, and mentions us all by name.
Frank Alban letter complete with detachable How to Vote Card.
Giffard Flyer listing Achievements for the Electorate on one side and Promises on the reverse.
Greens Flyer.
RBA drops interest rates by 0.25%. That won’t hurt WA Labor’s re-election chances.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24281906-643,00.html
“Uranian Mining is about as good a scare campaign as the GST was”
Do you recall Dovif, how many seats the Libs lost going to that election promising the GST?
I don’t recall them going to the election promising the GST in 1996, Gary.
Ido however recall “never, ever”.
All four banks have promised to pass on the rate cut. Wonder if people will think their circumstances are improving and thus help ALP.
dovif @ #116
Dovif,
You may recall that the Greiner Liberal Government was re-elected in NSW in 1992. They promptly signed a contract to build a private motorway to the North West Suburbs. The widely held view is that this contract prevents the building of a railway line in competition to the motorway for a period of 25 years from the signing of the contract. Unfortunately, the secrecy provisions of the contract prevent anyone from finding out the details.
Gary Bruce
That was my point it was just a scare campaign, just politics. I do not see Rudd Rolling back the GST, the sky had not fallen in and Labor is no longer against GST
Plus Keating introduced the GST in Australia, he called it a sales tax
It is around in almost every country with a sophisticated tax system in the world. Labor was against it, because they think there was votes to oppose it.
The same argument can be use on Nuclear power
Gary
How big the reactor is does not prevent it from melting down, and things like half lifes does not change. We have had one in Sydney for over 30 years.
Barry
Since the NSW ALP promised in 2001 to build it and had just promise to build it again in 2008
I gather from this, they have some way of getting around it
The upgrade at Chatswood Station was done in 1998 in anticipation of the new rail link, which was never build
Can anyone tell me what the betting odds were this time last election…..my recollection is that it looked even worse for the ALP??
Sydney Punter Bets Big on ALP Win.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/20000-bet-on-labor-20080902-47oe.html
FC….Do you recall what the odds finished on at the 2005 election?
Wasn’t there some talk a few days ago about a woman wagering $200,000 on a Liberal win? I think she was described as being no dill either.
The Chatswood-Epping rail link is nearly finsihed!!!
Seriusly. There are actual tracks and things now.
130 Fulvio – I didn’t say anything about the ‘96 election.
Try the ‘98 election.
“The Federal election of 3 October 1998 was held six months earlier than required by the Constitution. Prime Minister John Howard made the announcement following the launch of the coalition’s GST policy launch and a 5-week advertising campaign.”
Well they obviously lost a few then Gary. Too bad it wasn’t enough.
Article on Ocean Reef swinging towards the KLibs, but note that the people interviewed are all over 55.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/swing-is-in-the-air-in-ocean-reef-20080902-47ic.html
Barry (132)
What a disgrace it is that governments of both persuasions can get away with signing contract with secret clauses which the voting public are not permitted to see. How are we supposed to make judgements about how these turkeys are spending OUR money if they won’t give us all the information?
It is totally undemocratic and sooner or later we, the electorate, will need to start punishing governments that indulge in this practice until they finally get the message we will not be treated like mushrooms.
Kingsley hinges on the Undecided.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/kingsley-hinges-on-the-undecided-20080902-47im.html
That Ocean Reef article was absolutely shocking, a 68 yr old, a 55yr old and the local 50yr+ pastor are representative of Ocean Reef? Give me a break
Who will be the ALP Leader if Carpenter goes down? Any tips chaps?
there’s a nice line at the end of that Ocean Reef piece:
“I think Labor has too much money to lose the fight, but they are going to get a black eye. They are going to get a nice shiner.”
pretty much sums it up – voters want to spank the ALP, but don’t really want the Libs in power
I think William has got the result about right – the slimmest of majorities for the ALP
I totally agree, where are the young people in the article. I reckon the local media are going into overdrive to elect Barnett with the number of crap articles this week.
btw sean, if you want a scan of the Giffard Flyer I mentioned, email at fcalabre at bigbpond.net.au (replace the at with @
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