The Poll Bludger’s WA election guide has been reupholstered with predictions, campaign updates and a Legislative Council page. The upshot of the first of these is that I’m tipping Labor to emerge one by-election defeat from oblivion, with 30 seats out of 59. Predicted Liberal gains are Kingsley, Darling Range, Bunbury, Collie-Preston, Ocean Reef, Riverton, North West and Swan Hills, with no corresponding losses (such as Albany or Geraldton). Labor’s victory would thus depend on Jandakot, beneficiary of the Mandurah rail line and Fiona Stanley Hospital, and Joondalup, where a 4.4 per cent margin looks a bridge too far against a sitting member, despite talk of the northern suburbs as “tiger country”. However, it should be noted that further losses in Forrestfield, Southern River and Mount Lawley are not out of the question (the latter was a target of Labor’s campaign launch promise to build a rail line to Ellenbrook, reportedly pre-empting an announcement from the Liberals); that Morley turned up a surprise poll result on the weekend; and that Kimberley can be very unpredictable. I’m tipping the Liberals to lose Moore and Blackwood-Stirling to the Nationals, if indeed the latter can be said to be a Liberal rather than a Nationals seat; Janet Woollard to retain Alfred Cove, though not with great confidence; and Bill Marmion to recover Nedlands from Liberal-turned-independent member Sue Walker. That leaves the Liberals with 23 seats, the Nationals with four and two independents.
The upper house looms as a potential bonanza for the heretofore unrepresented religious parties: my guess is two seats for Family First, 15 for Labor, 14 for Liberal, two for the Nationals and three for the Greens. I expect Liberal-turned-Family First member Anthony Fels to win a seat in Agricultural along with two Liberal, two Labor and one Nationals, although Fels’ place could be taken by Mac Forsyth of the Christian Democratic Party if One Nation falls hard enough. I’m also tipping former Liberal deputy leader Dan Sullivan to win a seat in South West, joining two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens member, although the picture here is complicated – it could be right four, left two rather than three-all, and the Greens, Family First and Nationals are all in the picture. My tip in Mining and Pastoral is three Labor, two Liberal and one Nationals, though Labor’s third seat could go to the Greens and there could be a third Liberal instead of a National. In the metro area, I’m tipping three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens in East Metropolitan (it’s not impossible the latter seat could go to the CDP); three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens in North Metropolitan; and three-all in South Metropolitan.
Here are some of the electorate-level campaign updates from the election guide:
Collie-Preston (Labor 0.9%): Early in the campaign, Grahame Armstrong of the Sunday Times reported that Steve Thomas had “spoken in favour” of mineral sands miner Cable Sands while renting a house from them for $30 a week, which Thomas argued was all it was worth. Paul Murray of The West Australian claimed Labor had planted the story with Armstrong, a one-time press secretary to Geoff Gallop, whom he accused of running it even after it had been “factually destroyed by a letter from the company supplied to the newspaper before publication”.
Riverton (Labor 2.1%): The West Australian reported on Saturday that Labor was making a “last-ditch attempt” to hold the seat by promising the Leach Highway truck ban promised in 2005 would be fully operational by the end of the year. At present the government has implemented only the “stage” of the ban, targeting trucks longer than 19 metres. Riverton has been described during the campaign by party sources as “of concern” to Labor, and “in play”.
Bunbury (Labor 0.9%) and Albany (Liberal 2.3%): The Liberals have targeted two marginals in one hit with their promise to spend $225 million building a natural gas pipeline linking Bunbury and Albany.
And here’s me in Friday’s Crikey. An important point missing from the article below is that the Buswell website was developed by Labor while he was still leader – their error was in failing to recognise that the attack looked disproportionate after he’d quit.
With so much ammunition available to both sides, it comes as no surprise to find the WA election campaign dominated by negative advertising. Liberal mailouts have depicted Alan Carpenter projecting Brian Burke’s shadow onto a wall, while the six radio ads on the party’s website feature one Whingeing Wendy after another (in an interesting inversion of the situation in the party room, two-thirds of the voices are female).
For a party caught on the hop by an early election after a term consumed by leadership turmoil, such tactics might have been an operational necessity. The positive side of the Liberal campaign has won few admirers: policy announcements have been either re-heated or half-baked, with this week’s showpiece tax cut package criticised as both too modest and lacking in detail. The one television ad promoting Colin Barnett’s leadership qualities is either a conscious attempt to project an image of bland competence, or it indicates an even greater personality deficit than first feared. The party’s newer ad is more consistent with the tenor of the campaign, inviting viewers to spend a silent 30 seconds trying to think of “three good things Alan Carpenter’s Labor has done in eight years of boom”.
However, it’s been Labor’s tactics that have emerged as an election issue as the race enters the home stretch. On Wednesday the party launched an online dirt sheet called TruthAboutTroy.com, focusing on the colourful life and times of former leader and current Shadow Treasurer Troy Buswell. This was hardly the first time a made-to-order website had been used to attack political opponents, or even enemies within (most memorably in the case of the anti-Ted Baillieu website that was traced to Victorian Liberal Party headquarters). A Liberal-authorised federal election site called unionbosses.net continues to greet visitors with tales of “union thuggery”, “dirty tricks” and “Labor’s union links”, along with audio of former ALP member Dean Mighell employing intemperate language while addressing ETU members.
Part of the problem with Labor’s intensely personal attack on Buswell was that it arrived as concern over the campaign’s increasingly negative tone was ready to crystallise. It took only a short sharp talk radio backlash for Alan Carpenter to order that the site be pulled, with state secretary and safe seat candidate Bill Johnston sent out to face the music from a hostile Russell Woolf on ABC Radio. It was a different story earlier on in the campaign, when Labor took advantage of the Liberals’ unpreparedness to saturate Olympics schedules with ads promoting the government’s past achievements and future plans. With the website episode threatening to reinforce perceptions of arrogance and cynicism, it might be time for Labor to dust off its positive message in the final week of the campaign, shop-worn though it may be.
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Carpenter has maintained he will remain leader if the ALP loses. Barnett on the other hand……
Today’s junk mail in the Scarborough electorate:
Card from Liza Harvey with her name in a larger font and a bigger picture of her. Front has a picture of her talking to a couple of mums (one with baby) and you can see older children in the background: Liza Harvey, working for better neighbourhoods. This is a lie and misleading in the extreme!
Other side says she “has lived in Scarborough for 16 years, working closely with the local community on road, community safety and education issues”. I know for a fact that when a local group was trying to sort out a local traffic issue, Liza’s input threatened to ruin it for the community.
Otherwise she’s going to save RPH, get more police on the beat and replace a decrepit local school (P&C president of said local school appeared on Scott Blackwell’s leaflet yesterday, supporting him). This school has been fighting state govt for over 2 years to re-build this school and the funds were apparently promised before the election, so neither Scott Blackwell nor Liza Harvey should be claiming victory there. Also funding for teachers and more parking spaces at railway stations north and south (3000 places isn’t going to go very far, Liza).
The other Lib leaflet is rather empty. It’s almost A4 sized, with a bit of grass, sky and cloud on one side and “After eight years, what have Labor really achieved?” Turn it over to an almost blank page and it says “Don’t worry, we couldn’t think of anything either …”. The reverse says “If Labor couldn’t deliver in 8 years of boom … they don’t deserve another 4. Vote Liberal, better government, better state.”
I’d go along with that, but the Scarborough electorate doesn’t deserve Liza Harvey (still no contact info on her documents).
The Labor margin in Kingsley in 2005 was actually 0.8 per cent, not 0.1 per cent as said in the WAToday article.
As far as I can determine, 2017 has always been the completion date the NSW ALP has given for the North West railway. If my maths is correct 2017 is 25 years after 1992.
The Chatswood Station upgrade is part of the Epping to Chatswood Railway Project not the North West Railway. The upgrade of Chatswood station is still in progress – the legislation for the project didn’t pass through parliament until about 2002.
Follow the link to read more about Chatswood Station upgrade:
http://www.tidc.nsw.gov.au/ViewSite.aspx?PageID=34
This thread is supposed to be about the WA Election. So I will not make any more comments about NSW railways here.
that’s alright frank, but thanks anyway
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if the WA media to be believed it’s a shoo-in for the libs, but everybody knows that is utter crap
PerthNow and Sunday Times are News Ltd rags, enough said, The West, nothing needs to be said, and WAToday got most of its new ‘journalists’ from The West.
Labor will be safely returned with a health majority, people need to take a breather and not get swept up in the media hysteria. The betting markets are usually the way to look, and the Libs chances have ‘tightened’ from no way in hell to no way in hell
Dovif:
NSW ain’t WA – we don’t have public-private partnerships or secret contracts. Imagine Greiner building the Cross City Tunnel (without tolls), then Carr/Iemma the Parramatta-Epping line, all with public money – that’s what we’ve got. The Libs like roads and Labor like rail, but on the whole WA is much better than NSW for getting stuff done.
Bearing in mind a few years ago the WA government promised to build a line to Mandurah down the freeway, and then did it, it’s fairly safe to assume they’ll do it again this time. Despite some suburban mum whinging at Carpenter on the news last night, I think that’ll make Ellenbrook and therefore Swan Hills OK for Labor. And on the subject of rail, I’d expect to see a much smaller swing to the Libs in Mindarie than in the other northern suburbs seats, as they get the Butler extension. Maybe even a swing to Labor? Either way, John Quigley’s safe as houses.
re train links to Ellenbrook – hasn’t this been the promise for the last 10 years (well, it was to Stratton, but Ellenbrook’s now the likely end point)? That’d be like the promises to build a line to the airport (I remember D’Orazio saying it would happen if he was elected). These are in reality crumbs compared to the major undertaking now completed (Perth-Mandurah) and surely are not the key element of an overall transport plan. the North-West line in Sydney might actually be part of such a plan (although its all just on paper, predicated on the sale of electricty, AAA ratings etc etc), but they all become just promises, an exercise in wasted wish-fulfillment to quote Jerry Rubin.
My prediction is that the ALP will be returned. It will be narrow, say 2-3 seats, but be carried not on the primary but on preferences – the electorate giving the ALP a warning. I have no idea what will happen with the LC – probably cross benches with balance made up of FFP, Greens & Nats.
I must say I still find it hard to believe a party that has rushed together some policies with a very recently installed past leader (after much internal difficulties) and has as its shadow treasurer a discredited (in the voters eyes) past, has a real chance of forming government. Political history surely would indicate it is unlikely but I guess we are talking about the wild west (tongue in cheek).
Grylls Tight Lipped on who he’ll support if the Nats get the Balance of Power.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/02/2352631.htm
#155 seanofperth…..LOL. Very good.
has any polling been done by gender?
I am curious to know whether the ‘Lib Boys Club’ and the Buswell antics have had any traction with female voters
any feedback from the doorstep?
“… they will take that support for granted like they always have.”
There’s your answer in a nutshell, unless you you can refer me to the last WA Nat – Labor coalition.
and on the future leader question: has Barnett committed to serve a full term in Parliament even if he loses, or is Deidre Wilmott on a promise of a swift byelection?
Deidre will be the member for Cottesoe within 18 months either way, skink.
And will be known as the Liberal Party’s version of Rita Saffiotti, who of course was Carpenter’s Chief of Staff before being endorsed for West Swan
I’d say Grylls going on like this will get them Moore and an upper house seat in Mining and Pastoral, and give North West to the Libs (by preferences). Maybe even a second seat in Agricultural? They haven’t had that for a while, not since losing one of them to One Nation in 2001 (and then to the Libs).
Hmm, this is from Daffy on Perth Now
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24282487-5017005,00.html
And they’ve updated the WAToday article as well with this from Sportingbet.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/20000-bet-on-labor-20080902-47oe.html
Graham Giffard flier courtesy of Frank:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/giffardsupport1.jpg
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/giffardsupport2.jpg
Oi GB,
And I find it hard to believe a party that is rife with improper behaviour from top to bottom. Just name the ex-ministers.
And just what is the Jaye Radisich story ? How many 32 years retire?
I must also add that Graham Giffard lives in Darlington, right on the Border of Swan Hills and Darling Range, in fact his street runs through the border itself, I think he’s on the Darling Range side, so he cannot really be considered a “blow-in” as you assert. On the other hand Frank alban is actually a City of Swan Councillor, but for the Guildford Ward and actually lives in Guildford – so in reality Graham Giffard is more local than Alban is.
WB: thank you for the Giffard flyer… I live in Mundaring and so far have only received on thing from Giffard… nothing from other candidates… perhaps they’ve given the Hillbillies the big miss and focussing on Ellenbrook…
Interesting to see one of Graham Giffard’s pre-selection oponents endorsing him in that flyer….
Interesting, I’m in Middle Swan and have got 16 items from Giffard, and I’m aware that Darlington & Parkerville have been getting stuff as well – I wonder if Mundaring has missed out because of Distribution issues, I know that most of Graham’s stuff has been sent via Australia Post and some via the mob who deliver the local papers etc.
169 Edward – Those ministers are ex because Carpenter did something about it. That still doesn’t make the Libs electable IMHO.
No, she was seeking pre-selection in West Swan, but that doesn’t stop her supporting the Party and is hard at work with Vince Catania
Apologies, Frank is correct.
And I should know, she’s my second cousin
Not a bad sort, either.
For a New Right type
Stewart J
#157
I gave same 2 to 3 seat opinion in #119 , didn’t mention prefs but were implicit , and unlike our discussion on NT prefs , no disagreement as they’re consistent with policy & will decide numerous seats Assume you hav more HoR & less policy adherance for widespread support than Senate only & stricter more focused policy adherance
Dovif
#133 “Plus Keating introduced the GST in Australia, he called it a sales tax”
Do not recall PK doing that ?
Wrong, it was MUCH earlier than Keating
http://www.ato.gov.au/corporate/content.asp?doc=/Content/tax_history.htm
Would love to see how Carine is shaping up, i heard the Lib guy there is shitting himself over an independent unbalancing the ledger.
Another 3 items in the junk mail.
Giffard How To Vote Card
Giffard Flyer with achievements and plans for the Swan Valley.
Liberal Cloud flyer as mentioned by Helen
shittt
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=95640
174 gb – the labor party in wa is dirty. better a bunch of honest boofheads then a bunch of small time crooks on the make.
From The West:
“Poll shows Labor would lose election
In a surprise election move today, Labor has released polling which shows it would lose if the State Election were held now.
Labor’s vote, according to its own research, has dropped 6 per cent in four days to 45 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.
The Liberal two-party preferred vote of 55 per cent would see Colin Barnett record a comfortable victory.
Senior Labor officials said they believed negative Liberal advertising which began on the weekend had had a big impact on the voting.
They conceded that they were releasing the polling in a bid to stem a protest vote.
The polling shows that 61 per cent of people in five marginal seats still believe that Labor would win the election, compared to just 18 per cent who believe the Liberals would win.
Labor officials believe that people are indicating they would vote Liberal as a protest, not believing that it would cost Labor government.
PERTH
ROBERT TAYLOR”
seanofperth
I note that this story isn’t on any other news site and is written by Robert Taylor – he using this as payback because he didn’t get the other leak ?
its clearly a policy to limit a protest vote, i just hope they are going about it properly
184 Edward – yeah, yeah. Now your prediction?
I’ve heard that on ABC Radio news, Matt Birney has come out and congratulated the West Australian for their support of the Liberal Party.
I predict you’ll still parrot the party line whatever the result GB.
This internal polling leak is on the back of other polling in the past showing that people don’t believe the Libs are ready to govern. What better way to play on this feeling? Mind you it could be so.
189 Edward – yeah, yeah. Now your prediction?
It’s interesting to note that Labor last time leaked it to media outlets other than the West, and the West sort of played it down, while Today’s polling has so far only been to the West.
I wonder why this strategy ?
The ALP is losing this election and you can tell that by the issues it is running. If it was winning on its record why run the uranium staff. Keep it bread and butter that is what state politics is about. Its advertising is poor and the Libs much better. I wish it were not so but Barnett is going to be Premier next week unless there is a stuff up at Liberal HQ.
Birney: Liberal Party aided by ‘The West’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/02/2353625.htm
and the ABC has just posted ther Labor Polling story.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/02/2353626.htm
Why is Birney doing this? You’d think he would keep mum.
And here is the Swing according to Anthony Green’s election calculator.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/02/2353626.htm
Whoops, wrong URL, try:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/calculator/?wa=-7.3&retiringfactor=1
Bogart – from your lips to the great god of elections’ ears mate.
However, I can’t see it. Clearly the ALP are hot favorites – the bookies are seldom THAT wrong. Obviously the release of polling info by the ALP – this time and the last – is to cool expections and minimise the protest vote. Will it work, well, many people will sit back and go ‘yes I want to give them a slap but how much of a slap will it be’. For me, I want to give both majors a bit of a slap so maybe the 1st prefs will be down a bit but the eventual TPP flows are what counts and I still say that the ALP will probably get it where its needed.
MacTiernan’s having a go at the Libs about public transport:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/02/2353204.htm
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