The big news of the last week has been Labor’s publicising of comprehensive internal polling from the marginal seats of Albany, Kingsley, Riverton, Ocean Reef and Swan Hills. The figures show Labor trailing 34 per cent to 48 per cent on the primary vote, or 45-55 on two-party preferred. The trend line in the polling showed that just one week ago Labor was leading 52-48 on the back of a post-debate rally, restoring their fortunes after the much-touted 6 per cent swing picked up the previous week. I assume we’re talking about unadjusted results for the five specific seats, in which case they compare with a 2005 result of 51-49. It must be remembered that there are peculiarities to this particular collection of seats: Kingsley had a slightly anomalous result last time, local issues involving Leach Highway may be biting in Riverton, and Labor doesn’t have sitting members in its notionally held seats of Ocean Reef and Swan Hills. Against this is the fact that Labor can expect a better-than-average result in Albany, as they will be campaigning seriously in the newly added areas for the first time. On balance, the sample of seats used might be expected to add up to a slightly above average swing. If another 2 per cent can be accounted for by the margin of error and late efforts to scare waverers, Labor will still get its nose in front. Otherwise …
Labor is certainly behaving like a party with the smell of death in its nostrils, judging by the pitch of its scare campaigns on uranium mining and GM crops. However, The West Australian remains loftily dismissive of the message Labor is trying to send on polling, and indeed most other things. It should hope for vindication on this score, as last Thursday its front page proclaimed: “Forget talk of a tight race – Labor’s home, say WA’s two best political commentators”. Both of those commentators remain unmoved by the latest Labor figures. Paul Murray writes: “The pretty graphs shown fleetingly on television last night are not the detailed polling figures that are needed to examine Labor’s claims properly, as the ABC journalists who presented them know full well.” Such reliance on polling strategy is compared unfavourably with “Labor titans like John Curtin, Doc Evatt, Gough Whitlam and Bob Hawke”, who “bravely plotted their own political courses, according to their consciences, in their dealings with the electors.” You are invited to contemplate a Paul Murray transported in time to the early 1970s, turning out columns in praise of the brave and principled leadership of Gough the Titan.
Robert Taylor writes that Labor “only has to improve between 2 and 3 per cent by polling day and it wins”, which makes it sound so easy. Furthermore, “the poll produced by Labor yesterday wasn’t too much different from the way things were running in the last week of the 2005 election campaign when Geoff Gallop came from behind just a week out to record a comfortable victory” – though on that occasion Labor had the free kick of Colin Barnett’s costings debacle two days out from polling day. Great weight is given to the survey’s other findings: “24 per cent of those polled said they could remember something that appealed to them about a Barnett message while 38 per cent said they could remember and liked something the Premier had said”, while only 31 per cent thought the Liberals ready for government (which interestingly compares with low-20s figures being put around at the start of the campaign). Expectations of the result are much as they’ve always been: 61 per cent of voters believed Labor would win, compared with 18 per cent for the Liberals. The bookies too remain non-plussed, offering $1.25 on Labor and $3.50 on Liberal.
UPDATE: Super-size all that: today the bottom of the front page is headlined, “Speculation ALP back on track as new polling figures withheld”. This is based on Labor’s refusal to release its figures for a second day running. The West is also literally running free Liberal advertising.
Also:
• More on The West Australian: A mirthful Matt Birney told 6PR’s Simon Beaumont that the Liberals had “certainly been aided and abetted by the West Australian newspaper – and more power to them I say, good on you guys, keep it up”. The West responded to this embarrassing assessment by criticising the ABC. Inside Cover’s Neale Prior went so far as to provide a direct number for ABC news chief Kim Jordan, encouraging readers to call and annoy him (anyone got Prior’s number?). Prior noted that the paper had equally been slammed for Labor bias by no less an authority than Colleen Mortimer, a reader who had sent them an email.
• The front page of the Liberal site features the television ad which Labor’s pollsters blame for their apparent slump. I personally don’t find the ad so devastating that it explains a 7 per cent reversal, and find myself wondering if the furore over the TruthAboutTroy website might have crystallised doubts about Labor’s style.
• There’s also a seventh radio ad on the Liberal site, and it’s yet another Whingeing Wendy effort (this time with a male voiceover). Radio advertising has been a point of difference between the two campaigns, with Labor’s jocular style typified by a depiction of Barnett as a quiz show contestant struggling with questions about uranium mining. In an interesting parallel with the federal campaign, Labor’s ads seem tailored for FM whereas the Liberals sound like they made theirs with talkback in mind.
• Ian Taylor, who led the Opposition for a year between the departure of Carmen Lawrence in 1994 and the brief tenure of Jim McGinty, has been expelled from the ALP for endorsing independent Murchison-Eyre MP John Bowler in his campaign for Kalgoorlie. Bowler was one of the four ministers whose scalps were claimed by the Corruption and Crime Commission’s inquiries.
• The Western Australian Electoral Commission predictably dismissed a Liberal complaint against Labor ads attacking Barnett over “nuclear waste”, as its power lies only over material involving “the casting of the elector’s vote”. The complaint nonetheless succeeded in communicating the party’s grievance through news coverage.
• Labor’s big ticket campaign launch item of a rail line to Ellenbrook no doubt has a lot to recommend it on policy grounds, but it inevitably invites speculation as to the government’s electoral objectives. The line will serve the electorates of Midland, Morley, Bassendean, West Swan and Swan Hills. Notwithstanding the complicated state of play in Morley, the only one of the aforementioned which is on the electoral front line is the latter. The Liberals matched the promise in such short order that there was speculation Labor had locked in the policy to pre-empt them.
• Another interestingly targeted policy is Labor’s promise to change the public transport fare structure to make fares cheaper in the outer suburbs. This benefits a wide arc of marginal seats from Ocean Reef on the northern coast through Joondalup, Wanneroo and Swan Hills to Darling Range.
485 Comments
How can The West say they’re not biased against Labor? They’ve been tearing strips off them for months, maybe longer. The tirade is constant. Probably goes back to when Gallop gave a free kick to The Sunday Times with a Royal Show deal. Relegating the defence to Inside Cover is insulting.
vitap 418 (previous thread) – yes, Christian Porter seems a decent enough guy. I had him last year as a tutor and he adopted quite a common-sense, reasoned approach to law and order issues. Quite insightful and interesting as well…one criticism I will make (take note Mr Porter) is that he has terrible handwriting, absolutely shocking. I wonder, do you still consistently drink sprite-zero Mr Porter?
By the way, does the media blackout come into effect tonight? I always thought it was at midnight on friday before election day? Has something changed or I have just been an idiot all these years?
Plus the fact that the Govt moved all Govt employment advertising from Print to the Web.
I also note that the Sunday Times have also gone VERY anti Labor – no doubt as payback for being raided over the leaking of cabinet documents relating to a “War Chest”
Bottom of the front page of The West: “Speculation ALP back on track as new polling figures withheld”.
Nothing more to it than that.
Yes, the media blackout on Radio & TV ads only comes into effect at Midnight, and has been that way since the proclamation of the Broadcast Services Act 1992.
Under the old act, the Blackout also included News and Comment as well as advertising, and prior to 1972, there was even a blackout of the Election Results into WA till 10pm local tim, as the Polls closed at 8pm, so as not to influence a late vote in a Federal Poll. These days with the Intertubes and mobile phones, it would be near next to impossible to maintain such a blackout.
William,
That’s a strange tactic to say the least and it just might work. You forgot to mention the ALP TV ad that has been runnig tonight – VERY effective, btw, the Male British voice on the ALP ad you mention, Greg Marston, is one of the Voiceover Artists used for State Govt Ads.
Page three: Fran Logan “fighting for his political life” due to his disputed story that he “had to counsel” a former government adviser for spreading rumours he had exposed himself at a hotel. The parents of the woman, “whose identity The West Australian has agreed to protect”, have written a signed statement accusing Logan of lying. “The couple said they had resisted requests to speak out on the issue for montghs but flet compelled to break their silence after it emerged that teh Labor Party had set up an internet site called the Truth about Troy, authorised by ALP State secretary Bill Johnston.” They have also volunteered their services to Donald Barrett, Logan’s Liberal opponent in Cockburn.
I think the last sentence sums that story up perfectly.
And they say The West isn’t biased
Internet is not covered though is it? If the parties were clever they’d bombard wa websites etc. with political advertisments. Has anyone ever heard of e-mails being sent out on a mass level by the political parties?
Here is your answer
http://www.zdnet.com.au/news/software/soa/Online-campaigning-beats-broadcast-blackout/0,130061733,339283063,00.htm
Not a good idea as it may be in breach of the Spam Act, unless it’s to their own party members.
On page eight, The West has a mock-up potential Liberal ad to demonstrate “how easy it would be for the Liberals to take what the Premier has said on television and distort its meaning in advertisements”. Beside a picture of Alan Carpenter:
“You reckoned Brian Burke couldn’t influence your Ministers. What’s your latest false pledge to the people, Carps?”
QUOTE: “Vision, stability, leadership”.
“So, why would you dump Michelle Roberts from Cabinet if you win on Saturday, Premier?” (This from a paper which I don’t think said a single word about Colin Barnett’s earlier refusal to confirm Troy Buswell’s place in cabinet)
QUOTE: “We need certainty and stability not disunity and chaos”.
“VOTE 1 LIBERAL”.
In full colour, complete with Liberal Party logo. I swear I’m not making this up.
And in clear breach of the Electoral Act as well
Really? Is the ad obviously fake or does it look like a real ad?
Does it have any authorisation on it ? If not, The West could be in VERY deep doo doo.
William,
Can you scan it in ?
Duke of Peredur, No democracy, in Europe, America or anywhere else would send out mass political emails. It’d be considered spam and so filtered out anyway, and I don’t think such a move would win any friends! Plus how would you know everyone’s email address in WA, when emails are not geographically fixed or given out freely. It’d only have to be people who’d volunteered their emails.
Frank # 10 , I see you pretty much answered that. I’d personally hate email political spam. So no way – never!
At the risk of breaching the act myself, here it is:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/walibad.JPG
Simon – I was just reflecting on the fact that they did it with letters. This to me seems worse than e-mails, which don’t really waste as much money or time. Surely what you’re suggesting is a bit of a double standard. The difference between an inbox and a letter-box doesn’t seem significant to me. It’s basically the equivalent of spam in a physical form, don’t you think?
No, you are covered under the fair use provisions of the Copyright Act for “Criticism & Review”
The West on the other hand…….
William – how large is this ad? It does seem a bit dodgy, given the very small heading which explains what it is.
Duke of Peredur # 19 , it’s not a double standard. I was simply pointing out the impracticality of the whole thing. My “real” mailbox doesn’t instantly dump and burn my junk mail. I wish it could! My point is that it would be “automatically” classified as spam and ignored. You’d probably not even see it. With real mail you would actually have to LOOK at it before you trashed it. Emails to party members is as far as this could work I think.
The scan’s life-size – it’s two columns wide.
Simon 22 – yes of course, I understand. I only wish this Spam Act applied to my letterbox as well. Then again, I seem to be having to pay all my bills online now which is really pissing me off. Ahh, if only people would be reasonable and sensible about things!
That ad is really a low act by the West and could backfire on both the Paper, and the Libs – I hope that the ALP do take this to the Electoral Commission as it does have the potential to mislead voters that this is an official Liberal Party endorsed Ad.
Duke of Peredur #24, yes agreed. You get things in your mail you don’t want, then have to got out of your way to request paper copies of things you need!
25 – Well Frank I hope it doesn’t backfire on the Libs because that would really be most unfair. The West has chosen to run this provocative ad and hopefully it will make no difference to how people vote. Expect in Saturday’s edition to see a full page ‘mock’ Liberal ad, and Patterson polling showing Labor winning in a landslide.
Re hospitals and emergency departments: the ideal location of these is very coloured by one’s own ability to reach one in a hurry. Looking at the wider community, how easy is it for people in a densely-populated area to reach an ED? Is there access by rail for the walking wounded or those needing out-patient services. How quickly can an ambulance reach the ED – does it depend on one major access route and what happens if that route is blocked? If Joondalup is blocked by ramped ambulances or no beds (or no suitable specialists), where is the next nearest hospital, and how long does it take to get there? For the northern suburbs, there is nothing between Joondalup and RPH, yet this is the area that has had most residential infill development. Access to Charlies is difficult now and that will only get worse. For those to the east of Perth, RPH is the nearest emergency dept (I don’t think Swan Districts is equiped to cope, but it should be). RPH might be a mess, but it is very valuable to have a hospital near Perth Central station and the CBD. PMH and KEMH are also in a mess and in very expensive locations and have to go. Osborne Park Hospital, adjacent to the freeway and a train station, is another hospital that should have an ED, but doesn’t. South of the river there’s SJOGM and Freo, again lots of further new developments to the south. The Fiona Stanley Hospital looks very flash for a public hospital and it looks like a bucket-load of public money will be wasted on inadequate design and poor project management.
The dire situation in healthcare in WA, “led” by Jim McGinty and the diabolical planning by Alannah MacTiernan are 2 big reasons to get Labor out, as well as McGinty’s handling of the justice portfolio.
Swan Districts DOES have an Emergency Deptart, I should know, I used it a few weeks back, and got treated fairly quickly.
Doesn’t Osborne Park have a hospital?
Ahh – ignore that last post… that’ll teach me to skim-read.
8 “And they say The West isn’t biased”
They also have not read the classic no nos of advertising even if it is presented as a “joke”. An ad with a photograph of Carpenter will be seen by many as an ad for Carpenter.
Years ago CUB ran an ad on Brisbane TV featuring a large group of young women riding bicycles on the Storey Bridge. It increased beer sales in Brisbane but got no increase in the CUB market share. It has become a salutary lesson in ads being tightly targeted in what they try to achieve. It would be funny if the West is turning the swinging voters who don’t read ads in detail towards Carpenter.
I am a bit shocked that even the West would dare to run an ad for the Libs like that and suspect that many Labor supporters deep down would not be comfortable if they had favoured Labor by printing something similar against Barnett. Our democracy is too fragile for this sort of thing.
Duke @ 19
It is the money and the time involved with letters which make them less of a problem than emails. If it cost people the same amount of money to send emails as it does letters I bet you would not get so many.
If Labor goes down on Saturday – will the Feds intervene in the State Branch?
Second Question: Win or lose it appears to have been a poor campaign for the ALP, why is the State Secretary being rewarded with a safe seat in these circumstances?
I heard this from a friend of a friend
The Labor party on Tuesday rang all the Liberal candidates up for election and 52% said they would vote for themself
Going back to the post on the previous thread from Frank @ 435
He quotes Barnett saying “I do not know the day to day polling”.
This is absolute nonsense. The leader would receive daily briefings of the party’s polling. That’s why they do it for goodness sake!
Kim Beazley writes an interesting piece in Fairfax today, reiterating teh point he made some weeks ago that WA is demographically a natural Liberal state without a large working class or ethnic bloc:
“It takes quite a lot to shake an Australian electorate away from an intended course. Election results are determined in Australia by the sort of people who don’t vote in United States and United Kingdom elections. Compulsory attendance at our polls ensures this.
Rather than being politically fascinated, this group is politically disinterested. They have an intense private focus which leaves them impervious to great debates, jazzy campaign launches and dyspeptic columnists and editorial writers.
On the whole they will vote the way they did last time, which was the way they voted the time before. The way they voted last federal election was Liberal.”
I mentioned in a previous post that WA had swung to the Libs last fed election, and got flamed by all you statisticians that although the Libs picked up a seat, the gross 2PP fpr WA swung towards the ALP.
http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/wa-labor-almost-gone-20080903-48kp.html
“The way they voted last federal election was Liberal.” It’s surprising Beazley has fallen for the same trap. Or he is using this wong impression to make his argument. The fact is there was a state wide swing to Labor last federal election in WA of around 2%. If that happens this state election (and I don’t think there is a snow flakes chance of that happening) then Labor wins easily. These are not figures Beazley would want to use to make his case.
Depends on whether Beazley is making an honest assessment of the facts as he sees them or is trying to help Carpenter sell the “Labor is going to lose” line.
40 Rates Analyst – I suspect the latter to be honest.
Kim need to pick a side and not sit on the fence
I think Kim did not see the Sniffler ad and webpages, or the entire theme that the Liberals are not ready to govern. These are hardly positive messages.
Then he send his 2 cents worth, ie that Carpenter needs to be more negative. While he was saying how good it was to be positive
He seems to be just mumbling something in the article, that was the same reason Australia did not vote for him to be PM
The ’suggested’ ad is a new partisan low, even for the West. I’m proud to say I haven’t paid for the rag since they stitched up Carmen Lawrence’s chance to become the first woman elected as premier. I sometimes get a recycled copy from a neighbour and cut it into cage-sized rectangles, on which my budgie makes appropriate comments several times each day.
I think the ALP are trying to avoid the situation in the NT, where they underestimated the extent of the swing against them and did not campaign hard enough, and also avoid the ‘bandwagon’ lazyness that sank Kennett – as someone pointed out earlier on this site.
I think both parties hope that there is so much conflicting polling, that voters will not vote tactically or informally, and vote for their preference of the major two.
if I can paraphrase Gilbraith:
“the only function of election forecasting is to make astrology look respectable”
The highly… ahem… respected election poll on The Perth Files is showing a healthy lead to Carps with 50% of the vote and Col Canal languishing on 33%.
I’m sure if the numbers were the other way around The West would find some way of presenting it as credible research.
Sorry I’m a little late on this point but I seem to recall the Spam Act has a specific exemption for political parties/charities and political communication…
Can’t look it up at the moment but I think I recall correctly.
Why does Alan Carpenter keep making promises to spend OUR money on various projects? He’s in Government, why hasn’t it already been spent and why isn’t he spending it now, instead of making promises for election purposes? How long does the Labor Government need to start improving hospitals, police force, etc. Our hospitals have been in trouble for years, why hasn’t it been done already?
Mr Carpenter, there is no need to sit on a big surplus just so you can say you’ve got a big surplus. It’s not YOUR money, it’s OURS. You should have been using it to improve things ever since you got into Government!
And, Mr Carpenter, what is your attitude towards Referendums these days? How dare you suggest you ignore the results of a Daylight Saving and Extended Shopping Hours referendum just to suit yourself. If, as you say, a Referendum only lasts for the term of the Government of the day, then you HOLD ANOTHER REFERENDUM, you don’t just change the law to suit yourself! Such arrogance towards we, the people!
I don’t doubt that the West’s lawyers will have vetted the piece closely, and they would have sailed as close to the wind as possible with this
as the Duke points out @27, they may be road testing it on Thurday, and if they get away with it they will go large on Saturday.
expect the West to have a blue wraparound election section using exactly the same font as the Liberal adverts, with a scowling shouty photo of Carps and a benignly smiling statesman-like photo of Barney the Dinosaur
Well the lawyers or the advertising dept didn’t vet the full page ad from the RPH Clinical Staff – it doesn’t have the necessary authorisation as required under the Electoral Act.
I’ve made the relevant phone call
WA did vote Liberal at the last Federal election: 53.26% of the Two Party Preferred vote was for the Coalition. I believe that is what Beazley was trying to say; more people voted for the Liberals (or Nationals) than voted for Labor in WA.
Kim didn’t even mention the swing…
Alan Carpenter on Radio National.
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audio/audio/200809/20080904-carpenter-rn.mp3
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/04/2355067.htm
VPL is quite right, political organizations and charities are exempt from the Spam and also the do not call register. Basically means they can put information into your letterbox even if it says “no spam” etc.
Barnett defends Buswell.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/04/2354947.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/04/2354944.htm
And I’ve just had a phone call from the Electoral Commission, THey’ve contacted the West, and are seeking out who placed the ad, and they will demand that they print a correction tomorrow
Score 1 FC The West & The Medicos Nil
#55 FC…….Well done Frank. Legend!
Once again the West live up to their code of ethics, ie “dont let the facts get in the way of a good story”, or in this case a “….good return from illegal advertising and a kick in the guts to the Govt”.
i would be very, very surprised to see a correction in the paper tomorrow.
Well, under the Act, the have to
If they refuse, they’ll probably be prosecuted.
And re the Fake ad, I asked the guy and he reckons they’ve haven’t breached the act because they’ve done it as part of a news story.
William
There’s an excellent article on the WA election and its ramifications in SA in the Tiser today which quotes you extensively. It’s not on the website though. Do you want it sent as a jpeg? One sample follows…
Mr Bowe says;
A me-centric abridged version of The Advertiser article:
Here’s me in a Geraldton ABC story. I did say the Liberals would win, but I guess the “close result” bit made better copy.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/04/2355059.htm
dovif@36 re 52% of Liberal candidates would vote for themselves.
Sorry mate, utter B/S. Tell your friend to tell his friend to stop dreaming.
Didn’t happen.
As for that ad in the west today, I read it a couple of times and had trouble trying to work out what it was about. The average punter probably didn’t even notice it.
Skink @ 44, dead right,(was it Galbraith?), this dodgy polling and the selective release of it is starting to make astrology look like science. I suspect that fairly soon the only people who will look at it and take any notice of it will be people looking at sites like this.
William
I’m guessing you aren’t expecting any Christmas cards from either Labor or Liberal this year. The rest of the article was interesting as well, but obviously not up to the first half.
They quote Peter van Onselen saying that electorates are more volatile than they used to be and that votes could move more quickly. I’m not sure if that’s true but I’m sure Possum could tell us.
I heard the Carpenter piece on RN this morning. Whilst I thought he came across very well with regard to the substance of what he was saying, I do wish his style was not so much one of weary impatience.
Not that RN listeners are likely to be the voters who decide this election.
When you have to deal with inane questions from the likes of Fran Kelly, Simon Beaumont and his ilk, can you actually blame him
Dio- according to 23 years of polling they arent.
Possum
Are you saying that the Professor of Politics at the Edith Cowan University is wrong?
Is he just spruiking for more WA voters to change? Wouldn’t that be a partisan stance not commensurate with his exalted post?
Far be it from me to tell people they’re wrong – for all I know, he might be using something other than every Morgan, ACN and Newspoll since 1987 to arrive at his conclusions.
Well he was a former staffer for Tony Abbott
Make up your own mind on that
Whats Peter “self promotion” van Onselen’s election-prediction record like? Since he’s been a media megastar that is…. Does he have any proven prowess or runs on the board when it comes to predicting election outcomes???
Who cares i spose…he’s a media megastar, thats what counts!
Anyone willing to to call a winner and by how many seats?
Ok,
Labor to lose 7 seats (5 actual, 2 notional); the first eight up the pendulum except Collie-Preston.
How many seats can the ALP lose without losing their majority?
The media trot out PVO for just about anything. He’s always happy to share his political viewpoint and enormous experience as Howard’s biographer to anyone who’ll listen from what I can tell.
Will – you needn’t worry about publishing ‘electoral advertisements’ here so long as its just part of the general commentary (see the “Poll Bludger exception” s. 187B(2)).
As for the doctors – the question is, does it constitue an ‘electoral advertisement’ – if it does – they’re sunk.
According to the guy at the electoral Commission, it’s a cut and dried breach of the act
As they asking voters to consider the issue when voting.
Mail Report.
Both from Frank Alban
Two postcards, one saying Liberals Will Build a Rail Line to Ellenbrook.
Second a generic Liberal one
Will Scan both in.
re Frank @53
Barnett has been harping on about the Inpex deal for weeks
the preferred site is on the Meret Islands in the Kimberley, but that site is not popular with environmentalists, or indeed the local Nats candidate:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/28/2348775.htm
72 Darn – 8 seats.
I reckon Libs will win all their current ones, cept Blackwood Stirling, plus Kingsley, Darling Range, Collie-Preston, Ocean Reef, Riverton NorthWest, Swan Hills, Nedlands and Southern River. Won’t win Jandakot in a pink fit, and Alfred Cove looks unlikely. Biggest swing should be in Southern River.
Hmm, Just heard Bob Maumill say, after some wag suggested some songs to play for Carpenter (about losing) that “They’ll win on the weekend” (paraphrasing)
Frank’s Liberal ad scans:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/libswanhills040908-1.jpg
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/libswanhills040908-2.jpg
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/albanrail1.jpg
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/albanrail2.jpg
The Impex deal is a big one – we’re talking about a multi-billion dollar project (I think I heard 25???) that should be in WA but is probably going to go to NT instead. Someone should be raising merry-hell over it.
Oh – in a sad indictment on my attention span I saw the RPH doctor’s ad and skimmed straight over it – too wordy.
“Someone should be raising merry-hell over it.”
Wasn’t it the reason for the early NT election?
#75 FC….Those ad’s reek of “me-tooism”….. Look at me I came up with the same great idea as he did. Cant see how the punters wouldnt be cynical of that rubbish…he said it, now i’ll say it too.
And why aren’t the media raising it, oh I forgot, it’s the libs that are doing it and it’s ok – now if it was the ALP on the other hand….
Pots & Kettles.
the Impex deal is a huge huge deal, the libs can’t get any info on it though, impex doesn’t want to take sides.
84 Mr Orange the problem the Liberals have is their only experience is in being a prize rabble. The Liberals have a history of dividing the promises into “core” and “noncore” and the difficulty for them is being able to deliver on their promises to the electorate.
Here are the Seats to Watch according to Perth Now, and Swan Hills isn’t amongst them
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24293431-5017005,00.html
88 Interesting that in Morely they are tipping the independent to be in with a chance. What other independents are likely to sneak in on the night that might have escaped scrutiny before the event?
I just noticed something, The Libs are promising a Rail line to Ellenbrook, but there are no plans for extra railcars to run on it
No need for rail cars with noncore promises Frank.
The Liberals don’t believe in public transport
They blatantly copied Labors ellenbrook line plan and PerthNow has put it as the Libs top pledge in their promises guide
And this is how Perth Now have described the ALP Promise.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24293432-5017005,00.html
Oh and there is no policy document on the Rail line on the Liberal website.
But here is Labor’s
http://www.visionwa.org.au/policy/newdirectionpolicy310808.pdf
Obviously the Liberal railway line is more important & sooner, “before 2015″ whereas the Labor one is just “by 2015″.
But on the flyer there is no mention of a time frame and the cost is “up to $850 Million”
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/albanrail1.jpg
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/albanrail2.jpg
96 the cost is “up to $850 Million”
Big chance you will never see it at that price.
‘Midland to Ellenbrook’? I thought the Ellenbrook line was supposed to branch off at Bayswater?
But Labor has said it will cost $850 Million.
The 75km Mandurah line cost $1.3b
This 15km line will cost $850m, it appears increased costs have been factored in.
I can’t the believe the media are so stupid to believe the Libs rail claim, as frank pointed out, where is there policy document?? they dont have one becuase there isnt one!
I’m assuming they’re meaning the Midland Line which would of course mean that it would most likely be branched off at Bayswater most probably at the rail crossing near Collier Rd.
Truth is that Inpex don’t really care about who is in power and just want to get on with the project. In all honesty though, does WA really need it right now? We’ve got the Gorgon and Pluto projects getting underway soon which will put a massive strain on our already streched labour market.
hmm ALP Internal Polling hasn’t improved.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/04/2355769.htm
Can anyone tell me if the promised Ellenbrook line will also run down a freeway reservation like the Mandurah line or will it have its own reservation?
No Freeway down that way, so I’m assuming it will be down Lord St with possibly some Tunnelling involved.
It will go up the middle of Tonkin Highway off Bayswater off the Midland line (basically a freeway)
It can either then go along Reid Highway (also like a fwy) then up Lord St OR It can continue up the Tonkin Highway Reservation to Gnangara Road, then along Gnangara Road to Ellenbrook.
So yes it is likely to be mainly in the median of major roads like the northern and southern suburbs railways.
RE That polling, Labor must be quite concerned about protect votes? Or are they simply trying to make sure they get a healthy majority?
I cannot believe in my heart of hearts that the Western Australian public will consciously elect a Liberal Government at this election. There’s no enthusiasm for Labor, sure, but every change of government here since 1974 (Tonkin’s one-seat victory in 1971 being something of an accident) has been towards a party with some semblance of a plan for the state.
I’m reminded very much of NSW 2007 or the 1990 federal polls – voters would dearly love to vote for any other option besides the two majors. And as in 1990, I think Green preferences in the Perth metropolitan area will see Carps squeak home with a majority of 2 (ALP 31 / Lib 22 / Nat 3 / Ind 3).
105 Someone said earlier in week they were polled by Newspoll for a Friday release so we will soon know a bit more than we do now.
Darn: it’s yet to be planned, but it would most likely run in the Tonkin Hwy reserve from Bayswater north to Reid Hwy. That road currently has traffic lights every km or so, but has plenty of space to turn them into interchanges in the future (kinda like the Kwinana Fwy was in the 90’s), so they’d do that at the same time. Just looking at it on Google Maps, I’d say they’d put stations at those interchanges like on the Mandurah / Joondalup lines… Embleton at Broun Ave, and Noranda at Benara Rd.
Tonkin Hwy will be extended north sometime, too… it’ll go around Ballajura and link up with Hepburn Ave, and the Tonkin Hwy / Reid Hwy junction will become a BIG interchange – something like the M7/M4 one in Sydney. The Ellenbrook line would probably run in the Reid Hwy reserve for a few km (with another station at, say, Altone Rd in Beechboro?), then run in its own reserve – possibly alongside Lord St, which may become a major highway itself one day. Not sure what they plan on doing at the Ellenbrook end – probably a tunnel.
There is a reserve right through the middle of Ellenbrook for the rail line, the town centre is already being built around it, no need at all for tunnelling.
So we will get a Newspoll and Westpoll 2mw, excellent. I think the west will pussy out and refuse to endorse either
The Ellenbrook line has long been considered. There are two options, unless they develop more, on is a long loop around from Midland, the other is the more direct route up from Bayswater. No tunnelling is needed at the Ellenbrook end it was designed with a transit corridor.
Hmm.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24293786-2761,00.html
Checked the Kal Miner, the West Australian’s regional, to see what’s happening there. Couldn’t find a mention of Ian Taylor or much else but ‘Liberals target Kalgoorlie’. It rivals the West’s ‘WA Government fails children: Lib senator’ for campaign non-News with attitude. Wish I were back in Broome just to stoush with the media much less the Libs.
Thanks to all who provided info re the Ellenbrook line. Much appreciated.
And for those playing at home.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=96130
Don’t you love the bias with the 2 stories on the leaders.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24293806-5017005,00.html
And note how they Gave Barnett a bigger headline font and a photo, while Carpeter is just a link below it.
The Sunday Times hasn’t gotten over that raid.
Yep, I got “newspolled” last night (maybe night before). They were looking for a male in the 18-24 range.
As did the Lazy Aussie from The Worst Of Perth last night.
Oh, and the poller said it should be released on Fri as they finish up on Thur.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/04/2355302.htm
I note a few ALP promises are missing from the Perth Now promise page via perthisboomin in comments
Matt Birney on 6PR saying that due to the redistribution that Labor has an extra 17 seats, and mentioned that internal polling is only shown to the Leader, Party President and the State Director. It is not shown to the candidate.
He will be taking calls till 5pm.
Talkon @106
Forget 1974 – think 1947
Ten news was woeful. Making out like Barnett was batman or something
Latest Odds.
Sporting Bet Bet Fair Centrebet Lasseters
ALP 1.30 1.30 1.25 1.30
LIB 3.40 3.40 3.50 3.40
http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/20929/20930/44843/West+Australian+State+Election
Gee $3.50 is a good price….
Labor still short priced favourite to win. Unless there’s a huge plunge in the next two days, the ALP will go into the election with a greater than 70% probability of winning.
http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/20929/20930/44843/West+Australian+State+Election
Ch 10 has been woeful during the entire campaign.
Just in case you missed Frank’s post!
I note that disgusting story on Fran Logan which was in the Dead Tree version of The West isn’t online.
Oh and there has been nothing on the other media sites either.
Frank #119 re newspoll. A bit guilty. I misheard him on the age range when he first asked, and after we went through all the other stuff, I didn’t want to disappoint him by telling him I was outside that range. I FEEL like a 34 year old though.
I had to ask him whether there were alternatives to satisfied or dissatisfied for his questions. He didn’t tell me there was a neither until I asked.
One of the questions was whether i was for or against Carps’ proposed anti uranium legislation. Since my shares in uranium explorers are already tanking, i had to register my strong disapproval with that one. Are South Australians any more mutated than they would have been without Olympic Dam?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/04/2355821.htm
Sean – but do you mean the campy Adam West type Batman, the young and hip Christian Bale Batman, the Michael Keaton Batman or some other type?
Labor still fighting in Kingsley. I thought they were giving it away as a lost cause a couple of weeks ago.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24291707-5006789,00.html
Our Anthony says Labor can win
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2355821.htm
Possum’s been playing up again. This time they had to use capsicum spray to restore Laura Norda.
http://www.cairns.com.au/article/2008/09/04/6741_local-news.html
Not long till Newspoll
Should be on the Oz Website at approximately 11pm WST/
“at approximately 11pm WST”
Frank, I don’t have to wait that long at my local dentist, but I’m sure Newspoll’s arrival will coincide with a huge betting splurge whichever way it goes.
Re. Kingsley: I reckon that’d be just Judy Hughes, doing it with less resources (and probably having a quiet grump at the higher-ups). The party may have decided not to bother with the seat, but she won’t want to lose it herself – she’d have to find another job.
Bop, an earlier Westpoll had it 54/46, so there is a lot of work to be done if Labor is to turn that one around.
Today’s letterbox drop in Mundaring…
Judy Moylan glossy
WAEC – Swan Hills polling places leaflet (addressed to all WA electors)
Giffard leaflet (includes $20 million to upgrade Bullsbrook district high school – no doubt complete with car park for the Rolls/Mercs and Beamers!!!
Rachael Siewert pamphlet… no mention of WA election
Giffard letter and postcard on anti-uranium mining (addressed to both me and my wife – they must cross check the electoral rolls)
Nothing from other candidates… perhaps tomorrow I’ll call in the bobcat man to empty the mailbox
Re: Antony Green’s comments about Bill Johnston being nice to the media – surely he can’t be too abrasive to the journos – he does want his party to win and is a candidate in his own right after all – albeit in a very safe seat.
Its a bit sad – there would need to be a political earthquake for Johnston not to get in, yet his attitude and negavity has really defined the campaign.
further, its a bit of a shame Bill wasn’t in a seat with like a 5% margin, he would have been shitting himself. The journos have obviously been waiting for awhile to sink the boots in on him, judging by the way they pounced on him.
I feel exactly the same way Joe and, what’s worse, he’ll be my local member. His negative campaign has really depressed me about my poor little seat.
I am yet to see a single statement about what he will do for my electorate. (Of course, the Libs haven’t made me any promises either but why would they – a drover’s dog would get elected in Cannington for the ALP).
145
I feel sorry for the people who are going to have that idiot (Bill Johnston) as their local MP.
Yup. The problem with Bill is that he’ll definately be a poor local member, but doesn’t seem to be much a “big picture” guy either.
I’m in Vic Park, with Ben Wyatt, and while a drovers dog could get elected there too, all credit to Ben, he has worked his arse off around the area, i even got door knocked!
Aristotle #128 – There’s something strange going on if Labor are claiming to be in dire straits while the betting odds are showing otherwise. Perhaps the people betting also think Labor will win easily, but will vote Liberal. Weren’t the odds for the Northern Territory election also heavily in favour of Labor? We know how close that was. Most people seem to want to vote Liberal but believe Labor will win. I’m not sure how useful the betting odds are if that’s the case.
the betting odds are really weird, and quite tempting… in a two horse race that guys like William here are calling as quite close? Good odds – though i’m wondering if the 3.25 is for an outright Liberal win? in which case i’d want like 20 to 1.
147
I’m sure they feel better for your sympathy, Glen
You know what they say – people deserve who they elect. Maybe Labor should have run an inanimate carbon rod in Cannington.
Duke, the difference here is that the betting hasn’t started yet. In the NT big money consistently went to Labor. That’s why I say Newspoll will be crucial. In roughly a 24 hour period from 6.00pm last night to 6.00pm tonight the volume on Betfair was $7 bet on the Liberals and $30 on Labor. Chickenfeed compared to what we are likely to see in the next 24 hours.
So I shall quickly check the poll at 11pm and then place my money immediately before the odds worsen. An excellent plan methinks.
I know I feel much better – thanks Glen!
Oh and Tomorrow the real poll that matter comes out – the Miss Maud Coffee Bean Poll. As decided by the old biddies and others who go there for lunch.
If that poll is anything to go by Frank then I guess Labor will be completely wiped out. Maybe the Miss Maud Coffee Bean Poll should replace the state election as the means by which we choose whom to govern. Certainly would make a bit of money for MM, and who doesn’t like to sip a coffee while they vote?
Well it can’t be worse than the last Westpoll Frank, everybody with money closed their wallets in reaction to that one.
It would be funny if Labor lost the election given they introduced One Vote One Value to benefit themselves, that being said 9 seats is a lot.
I fear the consequences if the Nats hold the balance of power.
I think it would be better for all city-dwellers, whether Labor or Liberal, that the Nats did not hold the balance of power. I for one would much prefer a majority Labor or Liberal government.
It may be not only the Nationals who hold the balance of power. I’m predicting a different sort of coalition, with several independents, Nats, Greens and others forming govt with Liberals. The Independent candidates look like they’re people who didn’t get chosen by Liberals, but who still support the Liberals, or disaffected ex-ALP people like John Bowler and John D’Orazio who might well support the Liberals out of spite, if nothing else.
Re a post of mine last night about hospitals – I’m glad that Swan Districts has emergency services. I was thinking about maternity cases that got shifted all the way to KEMH. By the way, although there is a hospital at Osborne Park, there are no ED services – in an area with difficult access to Charlies, yet the local population has risen 3-fold due to the infill development so beloved by Alannah.
The question remains as to whether the Libs can retain Nedlands and pick up maybe Alfred Cove to defeat these ‘Independent Liberals’. If they can hold Nedlands and win back Alfred Cove they’ll be looking good to win Government.
Helen, i agree it should be a majority government either way.
Thank god the libs are going to win. I’d be furious if carpenter got away with calling an election this bloody early.
Helen – in all honesty I doubt there will be a large number of independents or greens after the election. 3-4 Nats is likely, and maybe 2 independents? There certainly shouldn’t be more than 4 independents, although we’ll see. I may be completely wrong about all this you know. There might end up being 6 independents and 6 nationals, who knows???? I wish that newspoll would come out earlier! All this waiting is causing me to become quite apprehensive and unable to concentrate on anything else.
For any of you who can stomach it, Noel Chriton Brown has an interesting piece in Crikey called “Carpenter, Ripper, bras, booze and honesty”.
Where’s Frank and his committee? Wonder what they’re getting up to.
My faith in the parliamentary democracy will be tarnished if the Carpenter Government is returned, because i believe that any Government which is corrupt, of any Party, let alone one with 5 Ministers resigning, does not deserve to be re-elected.
That being said if the Liberals fail to win, they’ll have only themselves to blame.
Average Joe # 148
Also in Ben Wyatt’s electorate. I think he’s campaigned hard but is also a very, very active member – election or not. Always out and about doing something or other. He was handing out flyers at Vic Park train station at 7.00am last week. And I got a flyer from him in my letter box this week with endorsements from locals. One of the endorsements was form the LIBERAL ex mayor of Vic Park. Go figure.
NCB – Pot & Kettle – he should talk.
Frank
is the julie bishop-belinda neal story getting a run in the news over there?
cheers
Yep
Frank
this is a dog whistle from howard central
google has 531 articles on it
the msm are in full frenzy and like lindsaygate hopefully it will get exposed
but this time they are a bit smarter instead of a week or so its less tahn 2 f..ng days.
too little time to rebutt- anyway the msm wouldnt give it legs ..sigh
hope it backfires big time
Mount Lawley:
1 x addressed postcard from the Libs
1 x direct letter from the libs
1 x direct letter from labor
My prediction is that mount lawley is going to be a smokey due to the amount of stuff we have received. It makes sense I suppose – Menora/Coolbinia/Mount Lawley are all fairly safe Liberal areas and Michael Keenan looks after the rest of the seat. The only strong Labor bits are around Maylands. Kucera’s personal vote will also go.
Fact 1
the flight in question was last thursday
“Ms Bishop says she witnessed the incident on a Qantas flight last Thursday night from Canberra to Sydney”
fact 2
there was no bullying!
‘She was menacing in her tone [and] she was walking very close to Dr Nelson so I moved out into the aisle to stand in between them as I got my bag out of the overhead locker.”
However, Ms Bishop stopped short of calling Ms Neal’s behaviour bullying.’
Fact 3
note the timing
“Yesterday police announced Ms Neal and her husband, New South Wales MP John Della Bosca, would not face any charges over an alleged incident at the Iguanas nightclub on the NSW central coast”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/04/2355779.htm?section=justin
Does anyone think there is a chance of a minority Labor government?
Just checked with Sportsbet and disappointed to find they are not betting on the WA Poll.
For those interested in the odds for the US election, it’s $1.43 Obama, $2.85 McCain.
Darn.
WA Election Betting is here.
http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/20929/20930/44843/West+Australian+State+Election
Thanks Frank. Interesting to see the Libs are out to $3.75 with Centrebet. It seems they’re having a lot of trouble getting anyone to back them.
174 Darn: It’s unlikely. If they lose half a dozen seats to the Liberals, and D’Orazio or Bowler win in Morley or Kalgoorlie, it may happen, but most of the non-Labor/Liberal people likely to get elected are conservative (ex-Liberal independents or Nationals), so if here’s a minority govt it would probably be Liberal.
gusface #173: In all honesty, I would have to believe Mrs Bishop in that dispute, despite the rather dubious timing. Mainly because she speaks properly, dresses well and behaves properly, unlike Mrs Neal – who, if you haven’t worked out, I don’t like. By the way, why the conspicuous use of ‘Ms’? I thought that was limited to arts lecturers at university.
i have tomorrow’s front page of the west. how can i upload?
On Centrebet Labor odds shortened to 1.22 from 1.25 and libs out to 3.75 from 3.50
Email it to me at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com
I don’t believe Julie Bishop is a Mrs – I thought she was a Ms (isn’t she ‘involved’ with the former Lord Mayor?). Who does like Belinda Neal – even her former staffers aren’t fans!
now that is interesting considering Carps comments at PMH, as well as Anthony’s on PM.
I note that this time there hasn’t been any smoking gun cockups, bar thetruthabottroy.com
Duke
“By the way, why the conspicuous use of ‘Ms’? I thought that was limited to arts lecturers at university.”
dunno,those are ABC quotes not mine.
VPL # 183 – You’re probably right, in which case she is Miss Bishop, technically.
gusface 185 – Apologies. That is to be expected from the ABC, not that it really makes a huge difference.
Courtesy of The Voice of Reason, the front page of tomorrow’s West. Unfortunately, no Westpoll and a non-election lead story. However, the article on the bottom row exposes the Liberals to high-profile scrutiny, which the paper seems to have felt unnecessary through the course of the campaign due to the certainty of Labor victory.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/p01-allmins-1.gif
Is the newspoll actually coming out tonight at 11pm, or do we have to wait until tomorrow?
there’s a 12 page wrap around in The West tomorrow (something to look forward to ; ) )
surprisingly it’s the most balanced of the campaign. Paul Murray declares that Labor deserves to lose but the Liberals don’t deserve to win.
the catholics amongst us will be praying to St Jude
what on earth is the west playing at?
No election lead story or wrap around the day before the election?
i take back my comments 191
Ahh sitting on the fence after his bold prediction in 2005
Any editorial ?
The Seats in play according to The West
The new battleground according to the west:
Dawesville: Kim Hames vs Marion Blair
Darling Range: Lisa Griffiths vs Tony Simpson
Kalamunda: John Day vs Juliana Plummer
Kingsley: Andrea Mitchell vs Judy Hughes
Nedlands: Sue Walker vs Bill Marmion
Ocean Reef: Louise Durack vs Albert Jacobs
Riverton: Tony McRae vs Mike Nahan
Scarborough: Liza Harvey vs Scott Blackwell
Swan Hills: Graham Giffard vs Frank Alban
Albany: Peter Watson vs Andrew Partington
Bunbury: John Castrilli vs Peter McFarlane
Collie_Preston: Mick Murray vs Steve Thomas
Geraldton: Shane Hill vs Ian Blayney
Kalgoorlie: John Bowler vs Nat James vs Matthew Cuomo
North West: Vince Catania vs Rod Sweetman
no editorial
Hmm, and No Morley ?
And no westpoll or marginal polls?
Westpoll will be on Saturday, just to put the cat amongst the pigeons
If they do the westpoll on sunday they might get it right for once
Has Fran Logan had a follow up article by Jessica Strutt, or as I now call her Sl*t ?
she’s got her stories from someone who could be seen as being close to you Frank, or so I hear…
And has the Correction been published ?
didn’t see the correction but didn’t look too hard. will check again
Voice of Reason #194
Even if the Libs take every single one of the seats listed, by my count Labor still takes 30 seats and can form a majority government. Are these the seats The West are saying are in play?
But were obtained after much harrassment and badgering until Ms Strutt got the quote she wanted according to the original source’s staff
The Nation section of The Australian is in the process of being updated…
Interesting… these seats haven’t been mentioned that much anywhere, even though they’re very marginal (Kalamunda’s just 0.2% to the Libs, and Darling Range is 0.8% to Labor). Anyone reckon Hames, Simpson or Day might lose their seats?
Darling Range has gained the Darlington Primary School Booth from Swan Hills, and that was a good ALP booth last time.
out of the three i reckon day and simpson have their seats safely and with swings their way but hames may not get such a big swing.
dawesville is next to mandurah home of the new train line and the hard working david templeman
Darling Range maybe, a lot of $$ has been spent in the former Swan Hills part of the electorate where JR did HEAPS of local work and the Lib candidate is unknown. The other parts of the electorate are around Armadale and Kelmscot sort of
And ironically that’s where Graham Giffard lives.
Yeah, one of Jaye’s strong supporters and a member of the branch is a Booth Captain on one of the booths.
hmm, no Newspoll online.
2mws articles are up, doesnt seem to be a newspoll?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/thenation/wa/
the oz has stories but no newspoll
The Hills are rapidly becoming tree change electorates. I can’t imagine any “save perth hills” supporters would vote for or preference the “no logs no jobs” libs either
William,
Your mission is to grab a dead tree version of The Australian. Unless they will publish Newspoll Friday Night for the Weekend Oz, like in 2005.
Grassroots story from the Oz. I’m surprised The West didn’t pull another Tony McCrae stunt like last time.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24295332-5006789,00.html
i’m quite sure that i have not uttered a good word about the west in years but in fairness, tony mcrae did bring some ill feeling upon himself last election…
Oh and according to Inside Cover, Ian Henke, former Howard Staffer is behind the recruitment agency mentioned yesterday on Campaign Diary.
when is this news poll going to be realised does any one no
218: That’s why I think McRae’s got a pretty good chance to hold Riverton. Last election, he and his seat got splashed all over the front of the West two days in a row… he still won. They must like him there, I suppose…
maybe you’re right
If it’s not in the dead tree version, then definately Saturday.
In Lieu of there being no Newspoll, here is the latest from the unscientific, easily rigged(by deleting your cookies) Perth Now Poll
And note there is actually no provision to vote for Greens nor independents.
Poll Results
You have already voted! Here are the results so far:
Labor
52%
Liberal
46%
Greens
0%
Independent
0%
Total votes
Total of 3467 votes
McRae would most definally lose his seat if mike nahan was a people person and worked to win it his first mail out was the first weekend the election was called need i say more
This SMH article makes no sense, referring to Kim Beazley’s dire predictions.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/beazley-puts-a-twist-into-labors-chances/2008/09/04/1220121430208.html
i no it has a large ethinic community but it is easily a lib seat if you have a look at williams map the booths around shelly are only 60 percent liberal they could easily be 65 or even 70 liberal even willeton is only 52 labour kierath did hold it by 6 % and the boundaries have not changed much the reason why mcrae did so well in the past was his links to the ethnic community in the area which helps him in willenton and parkwood
southernboy,
These are the booths for Riverton.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Riverton/polling_places.php
just to correct my statement the lower both in willeton is 53 which can be won by the libs and the booth just a bit higher sould be more liberal if worked
But this time there is no independent liberal mayor running, which should make it more straightforward.
The timing has prevented the running of Dummy candidates.
No Westpoll yet? Must be something in it positive for Labor then.
I reckon both Westpoll and Newspoll will be published on Saturday so as to prevent any last minute announcements, if they were published now, it would give the parties time to work during the night to release some Big ticket item to announce.
Frank @ 232 “The timing has prevented the running of dummy candidates”.
Really?
Sorry Frank, 230.
As in “Independents” who are only there to give their preferences to one of the majors – usually conservative, you know the type, High Profile single issue candidates.
Frank Calabrese @ 226
Articles like that make me wonder who’s editing nowadays. As soon as you read clunkers like “WA was the only state to swing towards the Coalition in the last Federal election” it makes it hard to take the rest of the article seriously. Of course, we all know WA did not swing towards the Coalition in the last election and swung to the ALP by 2.14%.
They could’ve stated it in other ways of course, for instance it being the only state where the Coalition recorded a greater 2PP vote share than the ALP, or the only state where the Coalition increased its seat count. Finding out this material, of course, only takes a couple of minutes.
sorry about going off topic, but i’m finding it a bit hard to get my head around the SECOND article being positive for Rudd that Shanahan has written in a week, hmmm i wonder who his standin is, i can’t believe he’s suddenly seen the light on the hill and become a true believer at last, could a leopard change his spots so completely?????
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24296344-17301,00.html
Chris Hatton, standing for the Libs in Balcatta, letterboxed my street yesterday with a single A4 sheet in black on white. No photo, tiny typeface. No authorisation statement either.
I’d have thought the Libs would have tried a little harder to put a dent in Kobelke’s margin, given that he is the Police Minister and they are running strong Loranorder messages.
6PR announces that a poll of 1200 voters conducted for it by Quick Ideas in Morley, Perth, Midland, Joondalup, Ellenbrook and Cannington has the Liberals leading 48 per cent to 30 per cent. Apparently they did an earlier smaller survey that had Labor on 23 per cent.
Ozyman #238
Kabuki has been awful from day one. They should have tried harder.
If the polling is to be believed and we see a landslide victory to the Libs, then one has to seriously question the mental stability of West Australians. …Seriously, even if you are not happy with the attitude and performance of the Govt, how can anyone in their right mind hand over the reins to a group led by some who just yesterday admitted a lack of policy(detail)??!!?? How is that being ready to govern?
(I’m shaking my head in confusion as I type this)
liberals 18% in front in Cannington and Morley? riiiight.
William @ 239
Quick Ideas don’t even appear to be a research company. They are not affiliated in any way with the Australian Market and Social Research Society, neither of their principals are members, there is no evidence that they have any history or expertise in political polling. Salt required.
Labor in WA is really going to lose?
If Sandgropers are dumb enough to vote for Colin Barnett and the “Chair Sniffer”, that is a sad enditement on our friends in the West.
There are two questions in Morley and my gossip has no-one really sure of the answers.
Do John D and the Libs together beat 50% (assuming 100% swap of preferences) and then assuming they do who finishes higher of John and the Lib and how do the preferences actually flow.
I’m not sure anyone knows but I don’t think completely writing off a Lib win would be wise, it is just improbable, while you would expect a fairly tight preference flow from the Libs to John, I’m not sure anyone could bank on it backwards, John would have a lot of supporters from Labor who would be happy to preference him first, but going to the Libs second should be a big ask for these type of voters.
Has anyone heard seen morley how to votes for any one, I’m not close enough to know who is directing to who. I’m just guessing.
I keep reading that voters are wanting a greater share in the wealth of the ‘Boom’. Yet I never actually read how they want the boom wealth to be shared. Given that it is only a mining boom, surely people involved in mining will receive the benefits? If Labour loses the election because of the concept of people feeling left out, how will the Liberals change this perception?
The utterly non-scientific The Perth Files poll is showing Labor ahead:
Carps 41 (46%)
Col Canal 33 (37%)
The Greens 6 (6%)
What election? 8 (9%)
http://www.theperthfiles.blogspot.com
Iemma resigns…..
unions win in NSW…
I would be surprised if the liberal vote was anywhere near as strong as the “leaked polling” and media chatter are predicting. Punters obviously arent happy with labor and want to send a message. I dont for one secong believe however they are seriously contemplating putting barnett and buswell into government. The volatility in the polling is due in part to people venting their anger with the early election and percieved flaws with Labor. Their message has been picked up by Carpenter, who produced a Beattyesque mia culpa last night. Message sent, message received, now let sanity prevail. Labor to win with a reduced margin for sure but still a labor victory. We are different in WA but certainly not insane enough to put the libs in power.
I’ve never been one for fence-sitting, so here’s my predictions for tomorrow’s result, and this time on Monday I’ll either be copping it from all of you or glorying in my status as a self-appointed psephological genius.
Colin Barnett will be the next Premier of WA, with a Grand Tory coalition of Liberals, Nationals and unhinged Independents that will total 32 seats. John Bowler will win Kalgoorlie, Morley will be very tight between the Liberals and Reece Whitby, there will be very low turnout in North West leading to a paper-thin margin either way for Vince Catania and the intellectual pygmies in the ALP Leader’s Office will be blaming everyone else for the debacle by about 9pm tomorrow night.
I can honestly say that I really hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think I am.
I now fully expect to have shit heaped on me when Labor are returned with an increased majority…haha…but I’m calling it, and calling it against the ALP.
If you believe that, I hope you have money on the Libs. Centrebet is paying $3.5 for a Liberal victory.
I think the 3.50 is for an outright Liberal victory.
“Colin Barnett will be the next Premier of WA, with a Grand Tory coalition of Liberals, Nationals and unhinged Independents”
That prospect will probably be the biggest factor in labor’s favour- stability in government versus a rag-bag coalition.
and for the record, i think the margin of victory will be no more than 2 or 3 seats either way. (lib minority vs labor majority).
“I think the 3.50 is for an outright Liberal victory.”
Nope, the rules state: “Payout On Party That Provides Premier”.
So if the new government is a coalition (of any kind) that includes the Liberal party, it pays $3.5.
Note I took those words from sportingbet.com.au, but the wording at Centrebet is almost identical.
The media’s desperation/determination for a Lib win ramps up a notch.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/claims-of-labor-party-link-to-donation-from-drug-trafficker-20080905-4ae0.html
Average Joe
The odds are for Liberal forming government (Minority would do)
DooDoo WA Labor kept a big budget surplus, but did not spend enough on infrastructure, they are now trying to spend it and the public is saying,
“why wait until now to spend it” You have had 6 years
Mr Orange
Labor called an election 1 day after a change of opposition leader, they did it so the Liberal cannot form policy under a new leader.
It was a political move, but there were problems with the move
1. it goes against the Australian tradition of giving people a fair go
2. new leader gets a honeymoon period
3. it makes the government look arrogant, especially since Carp wants fixed term elections, he is doing a backflip and going against principles to get an political advantage
If Carpenter loses, he has only himself to blame
But I do not belive in polling Labor by 7 seats
The election result will clearly be a Liberal Government the question is how large. The Party is campaigning like a timid scared cat hoping against hope – throwing out scare campaigns in the hope of victory.
Labors campaign has been woeful and frankly threw away a winning hand.
The ALP office has much to apologise for with a lacklustre advertising campaign.
If the betting has $3.50 that is a steal.
I am sorry it is so as the Liberals are a rabble but with a short campaign and therefore without the time to scrutinise them Labor has been hoist by its own petard.
What’s the point of trying to spend a surplus on infrastructure all at once if there are no workers to construct it, dovif? All you get is hugely inflated costs and time blow-outs.
andos
so you are arguing to do nothing at all?
Government has a large work force, they have people looking after the infrastructure of the state, they have planners who can plan a rail line for the last 5 years
A government is also able to recruit from other state
Of course they could have done something
Even through Rural Perth had a mining boom, that does not means no houses/appartments get build in Perth. and it does not automatically means costs blow-outs
Carpenter has already said he will build the trainline in 3 years, does he thinks the boom will end then …. NO
I don’t understand why Perthites scream about the Gov not spending enough money. It is a huge state, with a small population, so even though mining royalties are large, the cost of implementing infrastructure is high. I guess the government has been spending less money on ‘visible’ infrastructure. Maybe their mistake has been not to spend on a few icons here and there which can make voters feel like something is being done because they can see it.
It’s almost as if the population of WA is all Gen Y, they want everything now, and nothing will satisfy them. If the Liberals think they can change that attitude then good luck to them.
Money breeds greed.
Re 263, pressed submit too soon, basically report the flyer to the electoral Commission as it is in clear breach and could get the libs in deep doo doo.
Re the Fibs crowing about a Liberal Win, I have a nice bridge for sale
And the big bets keep going to Labor:-)
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/plunge-on-labor-20080905-4ab3.html
Quick Ideas survey.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/the-worst-campaign-ever-20080905-4aa9.html
Reading Barnetts statements it sounds like he thinks he’s Premier already and the arrogance is already oozing out of him.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24298748-5017005,00.html
Hi all,
The results from the Miss Maud’s coffee bean poll can be viewed on the Greens WA newsblog:
wa.greens.org.au/blog
wa.greens.org.au/blog/missmauds
We’ll also be liveblogging the election tomorrow.
The smart money are going on ALP, but at $1.22 I am not sure if that is that smart
There is always the chance that the ALP had run too far with the “we are losing campaign, while they were really in front.” While they no doubt were, they probably did the survey in the wealthy part of the 5 marginals
That the electorate now thinks they will lose and do the trendy thing and vote for the winners THE LIBERALS
If you believe Talkback callers and dills who post on News Ltd “Blogs”.
I’m sorry, you will have egg on your face
the guy who runs UMR who does the labor party polling could make the data speak to you if he wanted to. He is a genius. No doubt they could easily bias the sample, for example calling everything at night time will get you more liberals, calling during the day will get you more labor. Stuff like that.
From The Greens Blog.
http://wa.greens.org.au/blog/missmauds
*
It should be noted that EVERY Miss Maud poll has favoured the Liberal Party, so we can assume that it’s clientle are those of senior years
266 Frank – The big punters have surely “studied the form” closely. I find it interesting that Labor is doing well in the betting. Is it possible these people have inside info on the polls? You’d think with such a close result they’d wait for the polls to be released.
Yep, I agree, they must know something that we mere mortals don’t.
I note on a West TV story on the media’s view of the campaign, 3 of the 4 interview pick Labor to win, only Geof Parry from Ch 7 predicts Barnett.
http://www.westtv.com.au/?vxSiteId=43c6a3c7-abf1-4c32-b98d-c27f8fa83360&vxChannel=News&vxClipId=1416_WAU1471&vxBitrate=300
Re Frank at 274
Yeah, those geriatrics are well known Greens supporters as well:-)
Peter Kennedy on the Rise of the Liberals.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/05/2356564.htm
Our Anthony on the Election.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/05/2356319.htm
Breaking news:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/labors-cash-link-to-drug-trafficker-ahead-of-wa-election-20080905-4adz.html
GG,
Already posted earlier
Re 280…see 268
Carpenter on AM.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/05/2356082.htm
I just put those Miss Mauds numbers into Antony’s calculator for East Metro (throwing a few randomish numbers around for ‘other’, and splitting the Democrats between the Greens, Libs and Labor). Depending on what the randomishness is like, it returns either 3 Lib / 2 ALP / 1 Grn or 2 Lib / 2 ALP / 1 Grn / 1 CDP. Greens get a quota easily, and CDP do well on the preferences.
Has anybody got a Family First MLC in the metro area with that calculator? It seems to be a bit harder to do… some of the tiny little parties seem to be favouring the CDP out of the Christian parties.
I notice Antony was saying Labor did poorly in WA last federal election. Wasn’t there a swing across the board to Labor in WA of 2%?
Frank
I tipped Labor by 5 earlier and I stand by it, but if they lose it is because Carpenter told everyone they will lose, and Kim (I know how to lose elections) Beasley did the same and the WA News.
When everyone has a negative message on Labor and carries it too far, a perception start forming in the electorate.
It would be ironic if Carpenter helped feeled the perception when he knew he was in front
From the Crikey sealed Section.
My prediction
ALP
ALP 27
Lib 24
NP 4
Ind 4
Ooo – that could be VERY interesting, depending how it falls. Who are your four independent picks?
Peter Kennedy on The Week In Politics.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/05/2356172.htm
4 independents is rather fanciful. I can only assume he is backing the guy in Carine, and Sue Walker to get up.
btw i’m tipping the same as pollbludger, but i reckon the Libs pick up Southern River and drop one between Scarborough, Carine and Swan Hills
The dark knight, your prediction would make a Liberal Premier
Add national to Lib, add 2 Lib Ind to Lib
all we need is one more
BTW,
I note that the ALP placed their full page ad on the backpage of the 12 page wraparound of The West’s preview – VERY good strategic move, as people will take notice of that rear page.
BTW, The Doctor’s Ad correction appeared on page 50
291: Or D’Orazio in Morley, or Bowler in Kalgoorlie. Constable and Woollard are certainties (Constable will probably get ~30% margin, as in 1996 without a Liberal candidate), Walker, D’Orazio and Bowler are all possibles. The smokey would be the guys in Carine or Scarborough, I suppose. Imagine if the independents split down the middle? Now that’s a show I’d pay money to see.
Nationals will NOT form a Coalition – NEVER EVER.
292, rather…
I think Labor will win narrowly with a loss of seats but I think the Carpenter government has been poor and will get back because the Libs are also a sad lot. There are too many poor Ministers such as Kobelke and Roberts. Ripper too smirky and fails to communicate budget position re boom. Carpenter too grumpy and visionless. Get McTiernan as Premier and get rid of the dead wood or better still get rid of all State Governments – an expensive waste of time.
centrbet has labor back to 1.27 and labors in to 3.40…
Oh and I note only the Fairfax press are running with the Drug Trafficking ALP donor story as well, it is not on Perth Now, The ABC nor on The West’s website.
Don’t you mean The Libs at $3.40 ?
Frank – there may not be a coalition, but the Nats would still most likely let the Libs form a minority govt – just with a lot more bending them over the barrel than they ever did to Court. Unless you can imagine Grylls, Waldron, Woodhams and Redman all lining up behind Carpenter…
In fact – now that I think of it, it’ll be an interesting weekend to be a National. Embarrassing by-election thumping on one side of the country, balance of power on the other. I wonder what Grylls makes of it all?
sportingbet odds narrowing as well..
Full betting odds here.
http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/20929/20930/44843/West+Australian+State+Election
Frank
If Carpenter forms a government with the National, I put the overs and unders for the coalition staying together at 3weeks
So the poor journos need help posting their blogs
It seems Grace over at the West is a busy little blogger, even posting today’s Nesblog on how you will vote.
http://blogs.thewest.com.au/news/news-blog-are-you-ready-to-vote/
have the newspoll figures come out yet
Nope, tonight, as well as Westpoll.
Omodei has a parting shot at the Nationals.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/05/2356045.htm
It will be funny if Newspoll has a swing back to Labor and Westpoll has a swing to the Liberals. They’ll have to get Galaxy to bring out a lunchtime one with a more accurate result.
The National Interest on Radio National will have a special on the WA election tonight. At 6pm eastern time.
Last week there was a discussion also http://www.abc.net.au/rn/nationalinterest/stories/2008/2350541.htm
And I just heard that Media Tart Van Onsolen talk up the Liberals on 6PR News by saying that the Libs have kept up the Momentum this week.
Carpenter & Barnett on 6PR taking calls on 6PR after 4pm
And Fairfax is gunning for a Liberal Victory.
http://www.watoday.com.au/national/showdown-in-boom-town-20080905-4a4o.html?page=-1
Hmm,
Perth Now/MissMaud Polls predict a Labor Victory.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24299207-5017005,00.html
Ha, so it wasn’t just my imagination last week. Alison Xamon’s looking the goods, and maybe the very boring Eric Ripper is about to get a nasty shock?
Have been offline for a bit
My 4 Inds are:
Constable – a shoo in and there is no Lib candidate
Woollard
Bowler
Stewart
betting odds still tightening
http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/20929/20930/44843/West+Australian+State+Election
ABC says both parties’ polling has them “almost even”, but with the Liberals ahead in “key seats”.
Don’t you love how WA Today has twisted the Bean Poll result only posting the primary vote, compared to Perth Now who did a 2PP.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/the-beans-have-spoken-20080905-4ael.html
Are the liberals ahead in both parties polling ?
Oh and The Leaders on 6PR shortly.
The preference flows represent a bit of guesswork on the part of PerthNow. I don’t think that reporting the results of the poll itself is ‘twisting’ the result.
Who’s the dick interviewing Carpenter?
Centrebet tightened again
Lab now 1.30 Lib 3.25
Harvey Deegan
Would you expect Van Onsolen to be doing anything else other than backing the Liberals?
How many copies did his biography of the Rodent sell?
Odds now going back towards Labor on betfair lol this is a nerve wracking rollercoaster
Barnett is stumbling on Tax Cuts. – blaming Treasury for not giving an accurate figure.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/labors-cash-link-to-drug-trafficker-ahead-of-wa-election-20080905-4adz.html
The last thing Labor needs on the eve of an election lol!
‘The Western Australian Labor Party received $2000 four years ago from a Sydney businessman and property developer convicted of conspiring to supply over $100,000 worth of drugs – raising fresh questions about political donations.’
And the Mauds Coffee Bean poll has spoken with the Libs ahead by a nose!
Still One vote One value may upset the party in the end, a close race most likely for tomorrow. But with what a shambles the State ALP branches are in almost suffering defeat in the NT and having the Premier, Deputy Premier and Treasurer sacked or leaving politics altogether it is the last thing Carps needs on the eve of an election.
We could be on the verge of a Liberal State win the first for nearly a decade, hey when Big Kim says you’re doing it tough he’d probably be right.
Still its anybody’s guess…..
I’m sure there are a whole heap of people listening to 6PR this Friday afternoon.
Rivetting stuff, much better than being at the pub.
Glen, That is old news and has ONLY been published by Fairfax – No other media media outlet has published it.
Frank, anything this close to the election regardless of who’s reporting it could prove devastating. Plus considering how corrupt the State ALP is, it doesnt look good regardless.
Based on the 6pr performance, who could in any seriousness vote for Barnett!
6PR and WaToday are doing their best to prop up the Libs
And frankly Barnett was terrible, had no clue on house prces and was very shallow on Tax Cuts – fancy blaming lack of access to Treasury Moddelling for being unable to give an approximate figure.
Colin did a beaut job on 6pr, what are you talking about.
Carps looks and sounds as if he hates the job. Who could blame him!
Frank is obviously a signed and active member of a labor party branch – Colin would look bad if he had a halo and wings according to him.
Frank, Colin was forced to run a small target campaign because Carps wanted an election because the ACCC came out with the final report on how corrupt the WA ALP is. Had this been a proper campaign and not started during the Olympics, the Libs and all the other parties would have been able to run more comprehensive policy platforms.
The blatantly anti labor reporting in WA is so over the top this election that it is actually winning some voters over to labor. Birneys statements about the assistance given to the libs by the west help affirm labors underdog status and may well backfire on the west by delivering labor votes from voters who feel that their being treated unfairly.
6PR haven’t got that much clout with only 10.3% of the available market.
http://www.blackman.com.au/perth508.pdf
How can anybody vote for a political party any party that in government had 5 ministers resign for corruption? If it were a Liberal Government id be rooting for a change in Government.
You cannot reward any political party for corruption plain and simple and that is the major reason the Libs are in with a shot tomorrow.
Of Course I am – At least I’m upfront, unl ike the Conservatives
Why are Liberal ads still running on perthnow? I thought there was a media blackout?
Glen, this beat up is only exceeded in its inanity by the glee with which you report it.
How stupid do you really think WA people are that they would accept this crock coming as it does from the usual suspects?
A donation of a paltry $2000 made four years ago pales into insignificance with the killing the Liberals were hoping to rake in from the money stolen by Firepower and Tim Johnston from vulnerable Western Australian investors. Who was it that tried to cash in on that little scam on behalf of the Liberals?
Oh yes, WA’s very own Liberal Party deputy leader, Julie Bishop.
I think websites are exempt due to a loophole.
And the Liberal Cheersquad are ringing 6PR in droves.
I think the election will be a Lib win which makes me sad as they are so pathetically poor. The reality was a long election would have been better for Labor to show the Libs have no policies whatsoever other then sending people to jail.
Lets be clear Carps destroyed the political careers of those involved in the CCC stuff and it was Labor which brought the CCC in. The problem I think is Labors campaign has been very poor and has failed to show up how pathetic Barnett has been. Also the west is practically baying for Labors blood. I have never seen a paper act in the way it has during the election. There should be an investigation into it.
Ok I’ve stopped listening to 6PR, I just cant stand it
Anything negative in the last few days can hurt, even though we dont have a proper picture on whether it is authentic or not.
How about Rippers performance trying to pull a 2005 black hole in the Libs costings for 2008, not likely given Troy Buswell has a sniff of the Treasurership.
WA’s will probably vote on how they did in 2007, in the Libs favour, but the worst result would be giving the Nats the balance of power. I hope either the ALP or Libs can get a majority government.
Did you hear that woman go on about Kalamunda Hospital – ffs, Swan Districts is only about 10-20 minutes away. And the guy whinging about the Joondalup Special Events Station, I’m sure the PTA would’ve taken the number of passengers who would use it into account.
Well, I’d prefer a government where bent ministers resign or are sacked to one that denies there’s a problem until the media furore (if there is one) dies down and then continues as before.
I’m also quite keen to continue with a state government whose Treasurer, smarmy git though he may be, can count to 20 without needing to take his socks off.
Oh, yes, and one who’s major infrastructure projects are actually useful (railway, desal plant) rather than monuments to vanity (belltower). Although, now it’s there, I do have a sneaking liking for the belltower.
Why cant the Libs replace Colin Barnett with Sarah Palin? lol That would energize the election.
I hope we have fewer independents, the only exception being Liz. I hope Sue and Janet get thumped.
Sorry Glenn but your guys have already gazumped labor on the dodgy donation front!
A Liberal candidate is being investigated for failing to disclose a $27,000 donation, it was reported today.
Paul Miles, who is running for the seat of Wanneroo against Labor MP Dianne Guise, cited an “administrative oversight” in failing to disclose the political donation he received during last year’s local government elections, ABC Radio reports.
rumpoleccat even if that were true, he’s not an MP. Carps had to sack 5 Ministers for corruption (proven). Ethics will be the killer if the ALP are thrown out tomorrow.
A few points…
Frank, mate, I love your work…but you have to admit 5 ministers getting the boot for corrupt behaviour is dreadful. No name strikes fear into the heart of a Westrailan like ‘Brian Burke’ does, and to be caught running around with secret phones and handing out Cabinet documents is just intolerable.
As for Carps, his staff are appalling, the timing of this thing has been all wring and the ALP generally has displaying the worst case of political tin ear I’ve ever seen.
WA is NOT a Labor state, and never has been, 1V1V or not. You need a good government, good policy and a good campaign to beat the Tories in WA, and the ALP have had none of the above in the last 4 years or the last 4 weeks.
As for Glen, turn it up old son. Blaming an early poll for the Lib’s lack of policy is a joke – they had 3.5 YEARS to get that right, but chose to intrigue like teenage schoolgirls instead. Not that the intellectual sandard of the State Libs would have likely produced much anyway, but you can’t argue they even tried.
And the West – plud 6PR – have shamed even themselves with their effort this last month. It’s been the most biased paper since Pravda, and about as strong on content. Armstrong is a total joke as Editor, and really, Labor voters should point blank refuse to buy the thing en masse…just to drive it broke or get him replaced.
Ultimately, the Libs will win, but will probably be more incompetent in government than the ALP. The true test will be to see if Labor can use Opposition to regenerate and get decent structure and policy back into its activities, to prevent a repeat of the last 4 years when they next get into Government.
But didn’t the Libs have to dump Athony Fels (now a Family First Candidate) and John McGrath) from the Opposition Ministry for dealing with Brian Burke ?
And we all know what happened to a Howard Minister
Pots & Kettles.
Glen,
How many Ministers did Howard sack for fiddles in his first term? Didn’t do him any harm in the long run.
No 357
Problem is GG is that you end up running out of Ministers to sack if the standards are set so high as to be inhumanly perfect.
I agree the labor party hasnt covered itself in glory with the CCC. However i wonder if the CCC existed in the court era what interesting titbits we would have garnered about the links between the states captains of industry and the court ministry. Also the CCC hasnt released its findings on a number of ministers so as yet corruption isnt proven . Carpenter acted prior to the final reports being handed down to ensure that the public could see that he would not tolerate any form of impropriety in his cabinet.
Labor on 1.35 and Libs on 3.0 at lasseters, everybody is tightening up
GP,
You write that as if it were a bad thing.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/plunge-on-labor-20080905-4ab3.html
Flood of small bets all from WA for the Libs today
“Spokesman Gerard Daffy said he had taken about $5000 of bets for the Liberals this afternoon, all from WA.
“I turned the odds out this morning after some big bets for Labor and whammo,” he said.”
Ch 10 News reported that the WAEC have already started counting Postal Votes, and Van Onsolen already knows the Newspoll results, but he didn’t reveal them and said that if the Libs had another 3 more days campaigning then they’d win, but he reckons either side will win by 2 or 3 seats.
Rightio folks, here’s my picks…
Labor to lose: Kingsley, Ocean Reef, Darling Range, Riverton, Bunbury and North West; all to Liberals. I think Mick Murray’ll hang on to Collie-Preston, though.
Labor to (notionally) gain one of Albany or Geraldton from the Liberals.
Liberals to lose Moore and Blackwood-Stirling to the Nationals, regain Nedlands from Walker (thanks to Green preferences), and hold onto Kalgoorlie by a reduced margin. (At least, I think so… see below.)
Nationals win / hold Central Wheatbelt, Wagin, Moore, Blackwood-Stirling; independents to hold Churchlands and Alfred Cove.
Anything else as on the pendulum.
So, that gives:
Labor 33 (-5)
Liberal 20 (+4)
National 4 (+2)
Independent 2 (-1)
Labor get back in, with a reduced majority.
My roughie is Kalgoorlie: is there any polling / reporting on how Bowler’s doing out there? If he comes second on primary votes, then he’s got a good chance of winning, as Labor and the Liberals are preferencing him ahead of each other. Alternately, if it goes Lib – ALP – Bowler, then his preferences could throw the Labor guy over the line. That’s harder to say, though… he’s running an open ticket. It’ll be the one to watch, anyway.
Betfair just blown up for libs to 3.30 then 3.40 from 2.50 earlier today
Labor back to 1.27 after being at 1.30
ABC News Story on Internal plling as mentioned by William at 320
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/05/2356988.htm
No 361
Yes, it is a bad thing. Politicians are not above humanity and they suffer from the same vices as everyone else.
Bird – Bowler will win in a canter
My pick for WA – Labor to lose 35 seats.
David Weber on AM re Green Preferences.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/05/2356945.htm
what do you guys think will be the biggest swinging seat?
The Libs have a good chance, but if they dont end up winning they’ve only got themselves to blame. Carps Corrupt outfit dont deserve to win, and the Libs havent looked like government material for a long while.
Colin should of stayed on after 2005 and had another crack without having all these temp leaders ruining the show. Clearly the OV1V issue will if anything help Labor over the line if they win. But i would not be surprised if there is a strong protest vote, the people generally dont reward corruption in Government no matter the Party. That is why Colin has a chance, but we’ll all find out the newspoll eventually and be able to factor that in. One would have to say given OV1V the ALP should hold on but who knows the Libs may come very close.
Tonight’s PM item.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/05/2357043.htm
370 – Don’t ya just love a smart alec conservative? I bet if they lose you won’t see hide nor hair of him/her/it.
Yep, I’m an ALP supporter through and through, and even I’m not making a prediction as I honestly don’t know who will win, though I hope Carps does it – but considering the biased media coverage to the libs, I have my doubts.
The mere fact that we are discussing the possibility of the Libs winning despite having 4 of its seats chopped and gifting 6 to the ALP thank you 1 vote 1 value, shows how on the nose Carps Corrupt Cronies are and the people are out to punish him and his government but perhaps not to completely throw them out. Still it will go down to the marginals and the leaked newspoll shows the Libs ahead, but i think the ALP ahead state wise by a very small margin. It’s anybody’s guess really.
No 375
Bit rich coming from you Gazza. In the next breath, you’re just as likely to praise PJK for calling JWH a coconut. Double standards, hypocrisy and elitism from the left, as usual.
No 376
“Biased media coverage”? What are you smoking mate? Wall-to-wall Labor – the opposition are lucky to get seven seconds in a new bulletin.
*news bulletin
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24300158-12377,00.html
Polling shows parties neck and neck
“THE West Australian Liberal party leads Labor in key marginal seats and could win government at tomorrow’s state election, according to internal polling by both major parties.”
You do NOT live in WA where the only Daily Paper is a virtual Liberal Party Mouthpiece and the only commercial Talk Station does the same.
They both make Pravda look like a school newsletter.
Glen, What leaked Newspoll, it is INTERNAL party polling.
Get your facts straight.
I reckon there are still vast numbers of undecided people who will probably come down on the side of Labor. I tip a Labor victory with a reduced majority. The people who are voting Liberal have already made their minds up. Its hard to get over chairsniffing and leadership chaos.
No 382
Come on Frank, are you really going to stand here and defend a (Ill-advised comment deleted – PB)? Disgraceful. The WA Government deserves every bit of criticism it gets, just as Buswell deserved it for his despicable acts as former Opposition leader.
Frank i have to agree with you there despite a recent story which said because Labor wasnt releasing any more internal polling they would win. But yes they are the most conservative tabloid around in WA.
Carpenter removed those cdaught out, The Libs promoted Buswell to leader no less than 3 times.
Oh and I might add, Buswell may well be in charge of the Purse strings come Monday.
372 – the biggest swinging seat will be Southern River. Watch out for a 10% swing courtesy of the flawed 5.1% swing calculation by all the “experts” together with a sitting ALP member who has done almost literally nothing compared to a Lib candidate who has run one of the more impressive local campaigns in a long time.
No 388
The bigger worry is another four years of Labor.
I’m comfortable with that
No 391
Of course you would be. You stand for corruption, incompetence and Brian Burke.
What time will the newspoll and/or westpoll results be released?
Fear not Frank (388), I think your team is going to win whether it ‘deserves’ to or not, and even if it doesn’t, it won’t be a disaster for your great state. Carpenter is the best thing going for the ALP. He has made an argument which is usually the last refuge of the desperate (that is, elect us because the other mob are so divided and such a ‘policy free’ zone not ready for government), seem persuasive enough for however many he needs in the handful of marginals to cling to government.
According to Peter Kennedy “Newspoll is looking Grim for the Government”
Just saw Peter Kennedy talking on ABC news of a looming bad newspoll for Labor.
Does anyone think the interest rate reduction will help Labor in WA?
Doubt it VERY much.
I’d pick Eyre to have a big swing. It’s got a Lib/ALP margin of 14.9% since the redistribution (which added in Labor voting), but Labor are running dead with some city kid who knows nothing about local issues or local anything. Even Labor people I know down in Esperance (one guy who got asked to be the candidate!) are voting for Graham Jacobs because they like him, and are somewhat miffed they’re being ignored again by Labor. There’ll be a dirty great big swing on the Lib/ALP 2pp, kinda meaningless because the Nats will come second.
Also, I pick Vasse to have the highest CDP vote in any lower house seat. There’s gotta be plenty of people down there who don’t vote Labor, and certainly not Green, but don’t like the chair sniffer… what with no Nationals or Bernie Masters, the CDP are the only other party running. Labor only dropped in a candidate there at the last minute, so who knows… it might be a Lib/CDP result. I can’t see Buswell losing, though.
Biggest margin’d have to be Liz Constable… 2PP vs ALP above 80%, as in 1996.
Odds tightening.
Book Value 106% 119% 107% 107%
Sporting Bet Bet Fair Centrebet Lasseters
LABOR PARTY 1.33 1.3 1.33 1.35
LIBERAL PARTY 3.2 2.4 3.1 3.0
http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/20929/20930/44843/West+Australian+State+Election
I’d say these are people who know of the Newspoll result.
I find it odd for Kennedy to mention Newspoll – Are the ABC gunning for a Barnett Victory ?
Van Onsolen is still predicting it will go down to the Wire with victory to whichever side by 2 or 3 seats – he must be basing this on Newspoll.
And I’d say you are guessing GB.
Labor to lose by 35 seats.
If the ABC is gunning for a Lib victory
WA ALP must be an arrogant government, out of touch and full of corruption
wait … that is what they are
#389, Southern River is the talk of the town atm, in regards to the election. Everyone seems to think the Liberal is a monty, which is why i’m backing it for the biggest swing also.
No 407
Excellent summation.
Frank Calabrese stands for arrogance, corruption and incompetence.
407 dovif – what part of WA do you live in?
409 – totally uncalled for.
GB,
What do you stand for?
Choc @389. Flawed calculation? If you take the results of the 2005 election and the transfers of enrolment between seats, that’s the value you get. If you’d like to invent a number you think is more appropriate, then do so, but don’t call it a calculation.
Margins are calculated based on the last election. I happen to agree with you that the Southern River could well see a huge swing. The demographic profile of that seat makes it look like one that will swing and swing big. I’d expect it to fall before other more marginal seats.
But 5.1% IS the margin if you use the results of the 2005 election. You don’t re-arrange seats on the electoral pendulum to match the order you think they will fall. Election night prediction is a statistical modelling exercise, and you have to start with a consistent set of electorate margins and booth results or you get garbage from your analysis. You always have to start with a validly and consistently calculated set of data. You can say you think that Southern River is more marginal than 5.1%. But on election night, I’m calculating swings on a booth by booth basis, and to get your swing right, than the two-party vote for the electorate has to match the two-party totals for the constituent booths, or your model produces nonsense.
Ahh, Generic Liberal.
You cannot discuss the issues, so you play the man.
I’ll still be supporting my side, Win OR lose.
i love how everyone has forgotten that Colin is a petulant drunk. Elect him at you peril! Four years is a long time
At least There is still Federal Labor and the federal Libs are in such a mess, a loss here will be a small blip
412 Edward – the moment you tell me what you stand for I will reply. Boy, you know how to keep a secret.
Talk about Arrogant, and we aren’t talking the ALP people here either.
All I can say to Generic Liberal, Glen and EdStJ – Don’t count your chickens before they hatch, I’m certainly not.
Hey Frank, are you giving it away?
Can you imagine if Newspoll is bad for Labor, while Westpoll predicts an ALP vistory ?
Which one will be correct ?
Actually Frank, Glen is ok. I’ve found his comments informative and balanced.
Nope, I genuinely do not know who will win, Deep in My Heart I want Labor to win, but as I said earlier, with such a feral media here it may be decided by the Effluent Kath & Kim types who like the look of Barnett.
Frank #420, based on the last Westpoll that’s certainly possible! But will there be a Galaxy poll as well to help make sense of things?
Winston, didn’t you predict a Labor win?
As for the polls I’d trust Newspoll over Westpoll any day, whether good or bad for Labor.
Nope, Galaxy was only last week for the Sunday Times.
There are too many new variables in this election to be confident of anything.
frank
fwiw im still sticking to 2-4 and have actually thought the 4-7 range is still in play.
most people i think have already locked in.
cheers
Frank, no one “genuinely knows” who’s going to win. But how about a prediction based on your close interest and knowledge? The polls are all over the place so I reckon your guess will be as good as any.
Exactly, which is why I cannot pick an accurate result, all polling is based on the old system when distributing preferences
Yes Gary, and I’m still going for Labor with reduced majority. But I see you still can’t get off that damn fence.
Well here it goes ALP by 5 seats, ALP to retain Swan Hills because of the fact the Liberal Candidate isn’t well liked in Ellenbrook.
Cheers Frank. Hope you’re right. How about you GB?
GB
I am from NSW so I obvisously have a bad rap of the NSW ALP
I also voted for Carr when he first got elected, so I do feel betrayed
when you look back at Carr in NSW for 10 years, he really did nothing, what he did, ie Xcity tunnell, lane cove tunnel he did horribly (ie closing free lane, company making hugh losses annd suing government)
the one big project he did was desalination plant, he propose it 2 weeks before his retirement, one week after his retirement he was on Macquarie’s board, guess who is building the desalination plant
Iemma was the same today, he say how much he did, he forgot the rail network was promised 3 elections ago, the unsafe hospital at Dubbo
You see the same type of things accross the labor state governments, ie Beattie in QLD, Carpenter in WA, and NT and you have to wonder whether it is just in the system
and now we have Rudd, he has started about 400 committees and has done nothing yet. If you are in government, you are voted there to make decision for all of us, you are not there to give jobs to the mates, benefit the union movement by hiring more public servants, or setting you up for jobs after you retired
ALP has just got a bad name atm
What fence, Winston? If you checked earlier on another WA thread you’ll know that I have given my prediction. Labor by 1 seat. I hope I’m wrong and it is more, but I’ll tell you one thing, I won’t be slashing my wrists if Barnett gets in. I won’t have to live with it.
Sorry I haven’t been reading all your posts Gary. Last time I looked you said you agreed with William. Not really the same as having your own opinion. And I don’t have to live with it either, but what’s the relevance of that?
Come on GB, I really am confused as to just where you stand, your posts are very cryptic. Give it to us straight!
dovif 433 – well said as usual.
Dovif – “If you are in government, you are voted there to make decision for all of us,” WITHOUT PLANNING AND FORE THOUGHT? You know, like the 10 million for the Murray Darling, back of the envelope stuff?
“you are not there to give jobs to the mates’ – LIKE HOWARD AND HIS MANY OVERSEAS APPOINTMENTS TO PARTY HACKS?
“benefit the union movement by hiring more public servants” – DIDN’T THE PS BLOSSOM UNDER HOWARD AND DIDN’T RUDD CUT THE PUBLIC SERVICE?
“or setting you up for jobs after you retired” – SEE ABOVE FOR HOWARD”S APPOINTMENTS
“ALP – has just got a bad name atm” – Terrible federally, you can see it in the recent opinion polls. LOL
GB you are like Lord Haw-Haw broadcasting away in Berlin as the Russian tanks come ever so ominously closer.
436 Edward – you first Edward, come on don’t be shy.
439 Edward – LOL
I see things are getting a little more heated around here. Good to see everyone a bit edgy and so forth. I notice quite an obvious divide between the liberal and labor supporters – interesting how it all comes out around this time. Anyways, does anyone know what time the newspoll or westpoll is coming out?
#413, Green,
The thing i have heard about Southern River is that all the booths fell liberal during the 07 election, and that is why the margin is inflated compared to 2005.
ABC 720 Radio Tally Room Blog http://blogs.abc.net.au/wa/720_tally_room/
Duke @ 442
“an obvious divide between the liberal and labor supporters”
How extraordinary.
Anthony @413 – the problem with 5.1% for Southern River is that it uses the 2442 votes taken from Gosnells Snr High School in 2005. The Libs primary was only 24.45% on that booth. Following the re-distribution there are no longer 2442 electors from Gosnells in the “new” S/River (there are actually 230). Hence the re-distributed figure is grossly skewed in favour of the ALP and gives the perception that S/River is the 11th seat on the pendulum to fall. At 413 you quite rightly predict that it will fall before other marginals “up” the list.
Average Joe @408 – wise choice.
Newspoll 11pm WST, Westpoll whenever the first edition of the Dead Tree version of The West – I think around 10.30pm WST
ESJ #439 – Best pollbludger call ever!
Winston #445 – Well, some of us hide it better than others.
Ch 9 revealed Newspoll.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/video?vxSiteId=1929a7b6-d2c6-4f56-bacf-9ca1759ced99&vxChannel=Nine%20News&vxClipId=1201_080905_ninenews&vxBitrate=300
While I don’t disagree that Southern River could be on for a big swing I notice no-one has mentioned Kalgoorlie? I would think (not having visited Kal since I was a kid) from my limited local knowledge that if one seat was going to swing that might be the biggie. I understand Birney had a big personal following and with a prominent Independent – who knows?
While I’m here – let me say I’m more than a little envious of the good people of Ocean Reef. Saw the two major-party candidates on the ABC tonight and they both came off very well. That Louise Durack is the blonde that I’ve been seeing over Carps/Rudd’s shoulder all the time. Well done ALP – she’s a cutie (of course, I think Sarah Palin is kinda sexy so there you go!)
Makes me feel very neglected with my choice of candidates…
VPL, i think you just got unlucky with the Labor candidate. a 13% seat should have really got the cream of the crop, not some party hack who is going to vote down the line everytime.
Hmm, according to Nadia Mitsopolous on Ch 9, Newspoll is Neck and Neck with Liberals in front in Key Marginal seats which means that Barnett can win if he forms a coalition with The Nationals.
With Grylls ruling that out, I reckon Barnett will be offering some nice big fat juicy carrots to achieve it.
Kal is a bit like Carine, with an independent there could be a huge swing – but thats a bit of cheating, i’m going Labor vs Liberal front on.
A Labor Senator on Lateline has admitted that the WA Government is likely to lose with a 4% swing.
Watched Channel 9 News , it has given nothing away saying “with Liberals in front in Key Marginal seats which means that Barnett can win if he forms a coalition with The Nationals”
if thats only th 5 marginal seats then do not understand there conclusion Headlne Newspoll result saying neck & neck means a cliff hanger depending where voters land…subject to MOE Internal Party Polling by seat would be more reveeling
Which Senator ? And most likely not one who is privy to internal polling.
No 458
I can’t recall his name; he was debating Helen Kroeger.
He was a former state secretary of the ALP and strategist, so I’d say he’s privy.
It is Der Untergang!
Fire up the shredders! Destroy the hard drives! Raid the wine cellars!
Found his name on the ABC Elections website: David Feeney
ABC online reporting Newspoll as 50/50
VPL see my posts @ 318 & 369
Bowler has Kalgoorlie in the bag
ESJ
LOL ….but your using all the lines everyone delivered against you Fibs at the last fed election
think of something original dammit man
ABC Online story on Newspoll
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/05/2357130.htm
If I’ve done this correctly on Anthony’s Calculator, this is how it would look.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/calculator/?wa=-2.3&retiringfactor=1
I predicted 2 to 3 seat Labor nail biting win a week ago , that 50/50 knocks that , BUT am hoping that Newspoll hav distribuuted there prefs bulk line based on 2005 electon result as normal , meaning there’s almost a 1% better result in there for Labor at almost 51/49 not 50/50…subject to MOE…still a cliffhanger but just favoring Labor (bertter that way than in reverse)
Van Onsoloen has been saying victory by 2 or 3 seats, so that’s about right.
Swan Hills goes to Lib by 0.2% which would make it the Libs most marginal seat.
I can only concur that the maddening thing about this 50/50 Newspoll is that the “key seats” where the Libs are ahead remain totally unspecified – if it’s places like Ocean Reef, Kingsley etc. it’s a total red herring as these are natural Lib constituencies they should never have lost!
It probably reinforces my belief that the ALP would lose the election if it was held on the old boundaries. The best thing that could ever have happened for them is the creation of the ring of relatively safe seats in the eastern suburbs of Perth which have built in enough fat to absorb the certain losses of the regional cities (although Albany is on a knife edge) and the swinging mortgage belts in the northern and southern suburbs (with Quigley and Guise likely to just hang on and O’Gorman and McRae in trouble but could still win).
Of all of them, I think Southern River is the only one truly likely to go thanks to McMansionland in Canning Vale. And if the Green vote is as high as I think it’s going to be, watch out for Darling Range coming back in the opposite direction.
And here is Anthony’s Calculator without factoring retiring members.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/calculator/?wa=-2.3&retiringfactor=0
Politics is a funny business, best not to make too many predictions – 3 weeks ago Gary Bruce was predicting a Labor landslide and hailing Carps strategic genius – now its too many variables to make a call!
LOL ESJ. Obviously he mistakenly thinks the people of WA enjoy the corruption, incompetence and arrogance of the Carpenter government.
I will thoroughly enjoy watching Carps’ concession speech. Good riddance.
“Premier Alan Carpenter gets a vote of approval with 48 per cent of those surveyed saying he makes the better leader.
Thirty-five per cent preferred Liberal Leader Colin Barnett. That is up 4 per cent from three weeks ago.”
I thought Carpenter was meant to be unpopular. If he’s unpopular what is Bernett?
Here’s one of Gary B’s gems from a while back
310
Gary Bruce Says:
August 25th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
I think Labor are on the right track with those ads. Remind voters that to vote for the Libs is a risk. It feeds into the perception that they are not fit to govern. Going after popular causes is not a recipe for succes. If it was Baillieu would be Premier now.
471 Edward StJohn – anytime you want to prove that statement go right ahead.
474 Edward – and it may yet pay off for them. Counting those chickens already?
217
Gary Bruce Says:
August 24th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
216 SeanofPerth – Why doesn’t Barnett just say he believes in motherhood? This ad tells us nothing really, except he doesn’t like the early election.
He may be deciding it was a really good thing tomorrow night!
How do you know that ad did it?
The Westpoll is showing 51-49 2PP to the ALP but with the Libs ahead in most of the key marginals.
And Carpenter leads Barnett as preferred Premier 47-27
ESJ – You forgot to show the posting that said I thought Labor would be returned with a 1 seat majority but, hey, accuracy and detail have never been your strong point have they?
And the Westpoll has the following:
Libs ahead in:
Scarborough 54-46
Kingsley 56-44
Kalamunda 59-41
Collie Preston 52-48
ALP ahead in:
Riverton 50.5 – 49.5
Gary Bruce
“You forgot to show the posting that said I thought Labor would be returned with a 1 seat majority”
What disturbed with your later 1 seat prediction was my 2 to 3 seats could make me 150% wrong in th margin
In any event if you guys hav access tomorrow to basis of Newspoll’s %’s and compare to my #467 think they may be understating Labor’s 2PP by 1% (MOE of course thows its both ways again)
Thanks for that Shannon.
Now along with Newspoll it seems that there may well be a return of the Govt, all things being equal of course.
New thread.