The big news of the last week has been Labor’s publicising of comprehensive internal polling from the marginal seats of Albany, Kingsley, Riverton, Ocean Reef and Swan Hills. The figures show Labor trailing 34 per cent to 48 per cent on the primary vote, or 45-55 on two-party preferred. The trend line in the polling showed that just one week ago Labor was leading 52-48 on the back of a post-debate rally, restoring their fortunes after the much-touted 6 per cent swing picked up the previous week. I assume we’re talking about unadjusted results for the five specific seats, in which case they compare with a 2005 result of 51-49. It must be remembered that there are peculiarities to this particular collection of seats: Kingsley had a slightly anomalous result last time, local issues involving Leach Highway may be biting in Riverton, and Labor doesn’t have sitting members in its notionally held seats of Ocean Reef and Swan Hills. Against this is the fact that Labor can expect a better-than-average result in Albany, as they will be campaigning seriously in the newly added areas for the first time. On balance, the sample of seats used might be expected to add up to a slightly above average swing. If another 2 per cent can be accounted for by the margin of error and late efforts to scare waverers, Labor will still get its nose in front. Otherwise …
Labor is certainly behaving like a party with the smell of death in its nostrils, judging by the pitch of its scare campaigns on uranium mining and GM crops. However, The West Australian remains loftily dismissive of the message Labor is trying to send on polling, and indeed most other things. It should hope for vindication on this score, as last Thursday its front page proclaimed: “Forget talk of a tight race – Labor’s home, say WA’s two best political commentators”. Both of those commentators remain unmoved by the latest Labor figures. Paul Murray writes: “The pretty graphs shown fleetingly on television last night are not the detailed polling figures that are needed to examine Labor’s claims properly, as the ABC journalists who presented them know full well.” Such reliance on polling strategy is compared unfavourably with “Labor titans like John Curtin, Doc Evatt, Gough Whitlam and Bob Hawke”, who “bravely plotted their own political courses, according to their consciences, in their dealings with the electors.” You are invited to contemplate a Paul Murray transported in time to the early 1970s, turning out columns in praise of the brave and principled leadership of Gough the Titan.
Robert Taylor writes that Labor “only has to improve between 2 and 3 per cent by polling day and it wins”, which makes it sound so easy. Furthermore, “the poll produced by Labor yesterday wasn’t too much different from the way things were running in the last week of the 2005 election campaign when Geoff Gallop came from behind just a week out to record a comfortable victory” – though on that occasion Labor had the free kick of Colin Barnett’s costings debacle two days out from polling day. Great weight is given to the survey’s other findings: “24 per cent of those polled said they could remember something that appealed to them about a Barnett message while 38 per cent said they could remember and liked something the Premier had said”, while only 31 per cent thought the Liberals ready for government (which interestingly compares with low-20s figures being put around at the start of the campaign). Expectations of the result are much as they’ve always been: 61 per cent of voters believed Labor would win, compared with 18 per cent for the Liberals. The bookies too remain non-plussed, offering $1.25 on Labor and $3.50 on Liberal.
UPDATE: Super-size all that: today the bottom of the front page is headlined, “Speculation ALP back on track as new polling figures withheld”. This is based on Labor’s refusal to release its figures for a second day running. The West is also literally running free Liberal advertising.
Also:
• More on The West Australian: A mirthful Matt Birney told 6PR’s Simon Beaumont that the Liberals had “certainly been aided and abetted by the West Australian newspaper – and more power to them I say, good on you guys, keep it up”. The West responded to this embarrassing assessment by criticising the ABC. Inside Cover’s Neale Prior went so far as to provide a direct number for ABC news chief Kim Jordan, encouraging readers to call and annoy him (anyone got Prior’s number?). Prior noted that the paper had equally been slammed for Labor bias by no less an authority than Colleen Mortimer, a reader who had sent them an email.
• The front page of the Liberal site features the television ad which Labor’s pollsters blame for their apparent slump. I personally don’t find the ad so devastating that it explains a 7 per cent reversal, and find myself wondering if the furore over the TruthAboutTroy website might have crystallised doubts about Labor’s style.
• There’s also a seventh radio ad on the Liberal site, and it’s yet another Whingeing Wendy effort (this time with a male voiceover). Radio advertising has been a point of difference between the two campaigns, with Labor’s jocular style typified by a depiction of Barnett as a quiz show contestant struggling with questions about uranium mining. In an interesting parallel with the federal campaign, Labor’s ads seem tailored for FM whereas the Liberals sound like they made theirs with talkback in mind.
• Ian Taylor, who led the Opposition for a year between the departure of Carmen Lawrence in 1994 and the brief tenure of Jim McGinty, has been expelled from the ALP for endorsing independent Murchison-Eyre MP John Bowler in his campaign for Kalgoorlie. Bowler was one of the four ministers whose scalps were claimed by the Corruption and Crime Commission’s inquiries.
• The Western Australian Electoral Commission predictably dismissed a Liberal complaint against Labor ads attacking Barnett over “nuclear waste”, as its power lies only over material involving “the casting of the elector’s vote”. The complaint nonetheless succeeded in communicating the party’s grievance through news coverage.
• Labor’s big ticket campaign launch item of a rail line to Ellenbrook no doubt has a lot to recommend it on policy grounds, but it inevitably invites speculation as to the government’s electoral objectives. The line will serve the electorates of Midland, Morley, Bassendean, West Swan and Swan Hills. Notwithstanding the complicated state of play in Morley, the only one of the aforementioned which is on the electoral front line is the latter. The Liberals matched the promise in such short order that there was speculation Labor had locked in the policy to pre-empt them.
• Another interestingly targeted policy is Labor’s promise to change the public transport fare structure to make fares cheaper in the outer suburbs. This benefits a wide arc of marginal seats from Ocean Reef on the northern coast through Joondalup, Wanneroo and Swan Hills to Darling Range.
485 Comments
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I’ve never been one for fence-sitting, so here’s my predictions for tomorrow’s result, and this time on Monday I’ll either be copping it from all of you or glorying in my status as a self-appointed psephological genius.
Colin Barnett will be the next Premier of WA, with a Grand Tory coalition of Liberals, Nationals and unhinged Independents that will total 32 seats. John Bowler will win Kalgoorlie, Morley will be very tight between the Liberals and Reece Whitby, there will be very low turnout in North West leading to a paper-thin margin either way for Vince Catania and the intellectual pygmies in the ALP Leader’s Office will be blaming everyone else for the debacle by about 9pm tomorrow night.
I can honestly say that I really hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think I am.
I now fully expect to have shit heaped on me when Labor are returned with an increased majority…haha…but I’m calling it, and calling it against the ALP.
If you believe that, I hope you have money on the Libs. Centrebet is paying $3.5 for a Liberal victory.
I think the 3.50 is for an outright Liberal victory.
“Colin Barnett will be the next Premier of WA, with a Grand Tory coalition of Liberals, Nationals and unhinged Independents”
That prospect will probably be the biggest factor in labor’s favour- stability in government versus a rag-bag coalition.
and for the record, i think the margin of victory will be no more than 2 or 3 seats either way. (lib minority vs labor majority).
“I think the 3.50 is for an outright Liberal victory.”
Nope, the rules state: “Payout On Party That Provides Premier”.
So if the new government is a coalition (of any kind) that includes the Liberal party, it pays $3.5.
Note I took those words from sportingbet.com.au, but the wording at Centrebet is almost identical.
The media’s desperation/determination for a Lib win ramps up a notch.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/claims-of-labor-party-link-to-donation-from-drug-trafficker-20080905-4ae0.html
Average Joe
The odds are for Liberal forming government (Minority would do)
DooDoo WA Labor kept a big budget surplus, but did not spend enough on infrastructure, they are now trying to spend it and the public is saying,
“why wait until now to spend it” You have had 6 years
Mr Orange
Labor called an election 1 day after a change of opposition leader, they did it so the Liberal cannot form policy under a new leader.
It was a political move, but there were problems with the move
1. it goes against the Australian tradition of giving people a fair go
2. new leader gets a honeymoon period
3. it makes the government look arrogant, especially since Carp wants fixed term elections, he is doing a backflip and going against principles to get an political advantage
If Carpenter loses, he has only himself to blame
But I do not belive in polling Labor by 7 seats
The election result will clearly be a Liberal Government the question is how large. The Party is campaigning like a timid scared cat hoping against hope – throwing out scare campaigns in the hope of victory.
Labors campaign has been woeful and frankly threw away a winning hand.
The ALP office has much to apologise for with a lacklustre advertising campaign.
If the betting has $3.50 that is a steal.
I am sorry it is so as the Liberals are a rabble but with a short campaign and therefore without the time to scrutinise them Labor has been hoist by its own petard.
What’s the point of trying to spend a surplus on infrastructure all at once if there are no workers to construct it, dovif? All you get is hugely inflated costs and time blow-outs.
andos
so you are arguing to do nothing at all?
Government has a large work force, they have people looking after the infrastructure of the state, they have planners who can plan a rail line for the last 5 years
A government is also able to recruit from other state
Of course they could have done something
Even through Rural Perth had a mining boom, that does not means no houses/appartments get build in Perth. and it does not automatically means costs blow-outs
Carpenter has already said he will build the trainline in 3 years, does he thinks the boom will end then …. NO
I don’t understand why Perthites scream about the Gov not spending enough money. It is a huge state, with a small population, so even though mining royalties are large, the cost of implementing infrastructure is high. I guess the government has been spending less money on ‘visible’ infrastructure. Maybe their mistake has been not to spend on a few icons here and there which can make voters feel like something is being done because they can see it.
It’s almost as if the population of WA is all Gen Y, they want everything now, and nothing will satisfy them. If the Liberals think they can change that attitude then good luck to them.
Money breeds greed.
Re 263, pressed submit too soon, basically report the flyer to the electoral Commission as it is in clear breach and could get the libs in deep doo doo.
Re the Fibs crowing about a Liberal Win, I have a nice bridge for sale
And the big bets keep going to Labor:-)
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/plunge-on-labor-20080905-4ab3.html
Quick Ideas survey.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/the-worst-campaign-ever-20080905-4aa9.html
Reading Barnetts statements it sounds like he thinks he’s Premier already and the arrogance is already oozing out of him.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24298748-5017005,00.html
Hi all,
The results from the Miss Maud’s coffee bean poll can be viewed on the Greens WA newsblog:
wa.greens.org.au/blog
wa.greens.org.au/blog/missmauds
We’ll also be liveblogging the election tomorrow.
The smart money are going on ALP, but at $1.22 I am not sure if that is that smart
There is always the chance that the ALP had run too far with the “we are losing campaign, while they were really in front.” While they no doubt were, they probably did the survey in the wealthy part of the 5 marginals
That the electorate now thinks they will lose and do the trendy thing and vote for the winners THE LIBERALS
If you believe Talkback callers and dills who post on News Ltd “Blogs”.
I’m sorry, you will have egg on your face
the guy who runs UMR who does the labor party polling could make the data speak to you if he wanted to. He is a genius. No doubt they could easily bias the sample, for example calling everything at night time will get you more liberals, calling during the day will get you more labor. Stuff like that.
From The Greens Blog.
http://wa.greens.org.au/blog/missmauds
*
It should be noted that EVERY Miss Maud poll has favoured the Liberal Party, so we can assume that it’s clientle are those of senior years
266 Frank – The big punters have surely “studied the form” closely. I find it interesting that Labor is doing well in the betting. Is it possible these people have inside info on the polls? You’d think with such a close result they’d wait for the polls to be released.
Yep, I agree, they must know something that we mere mortals don’t.
I note on a West TV story on the media’s view of the campaign, 3 of the 4 interview pick Labor to win, only Geof Parry from Ch 7 predicts Barnett.
http://www.westtv.com.au/?vxSiteId=43c6a3c7-abf1-4c32-b98d-c27f8fa83360&vxChannel=News&vxClipId=1416_WAU1471&vxBitrate=300
Re Frank at 274
Yeah, those geriatrics are well known Greens supporters as well:-)
Peter Kennedy on the Rise of the Liberals.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/05/2356564.htm
Our Anthony on the Election.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/05/2356319.htm
Breaking news:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/labors-cash-link-to-drug-trafficker-ahead-of-wa-election-20080905-4adz.html
GG,
Already posted earlier
Re 280…see 268
Carpenter on AM.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/05/2356082.htm
I just put those Miss Mauds numbers into Antony’s calculator for East Metro (throwing a few randomish numbers around for ‘other’, and splitting the Democrats between the Greens, Libs and Labor). Depending on what the randomishness is like, it returns either 3 Lib / 2 ALP / 1 Grn or 2 Lib / 2 ALP / 1 Grn / 1 CDP. Greens get a quota easily, and CDP do well on the preferences.
Has anybody got a Family First MLC in the metro area with that calculator? It seems to be a bit harder to do… some of the tiny little parties seem to be favouring the CDP out of the Christian parties.
I notice Antony was saying Labor did poorly in WA last federal election. Wasn’t there a swing across the board to Labor in WA of 2%?
Frank
I tipped Labor by 5 earlier and I stand by it, but if they lose it is because Carpenter told everyone they will lose, and Kim (I know how to lose elections) Beasley did the same and the WA News.
When everyone has a negative message on Labor and carries it too far, a perception start forming in the electorate.
It would be ironic if Carpenter helped feeled the perception when he knew he was in front
From the Crikey sealed Section.
My prediction
ALP
ALP 27
Lib 24
NP 4
Ind 4
Ooo – that could be VERY interesting, depending how it falls. Who are your four independent picks?
Peter Kennedy on The Week In Politics.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/05/2356172.htm
4 independents is rather fanciful. I can only assume he is backing the guy in Carine, and Sue Walker to get up.
btw i’m tipping the same as pollbludger, but i reckon the Libs pick up Southern River and drop one between Scarborough, Carine and Swan Hills
The dark knight, your prediction would make a Liberal Premier
Add national to Lib, add 2 Lib Ind to Lib
all we need is one more
BTW,
I note that the ALP placed their full page ad on the backpage of the 12 page wraparound of The West’s preview – VERY good strategic move, as people will take notice of that rear page.
BTW, The Doctor’s Ad correction appeared on page 50
291: Or D’Orazio in Morley, or Bowler in Kalgoorlie. Constable and Woollard are certainties (Constable will probably get ~30% margin, as in 1996 without a Liberal candidate), Walker, D’Orazio and Bowler are all possibles. The smokey would be the guys in Carine or Scarborough, I suppose. Imagine if the independents split down the middle? Now that’s a show I’d pay money to see.
Nationals will NOT form a Coalition – NEVER EVER.
292, rather…
I think Labor will win narrowly with a loss of seats but I think the Carpenter government has been poor and will get back because the Libs are also a sad lot. There are too many poor Ministers such as Kobelke and Roberts. Ripper too smirky and fails to communicate budget position re boom. Carpenter too grumpy and visionless. Get McTiernan as Premier and get rid of the dead wood or better still get rid of all State Governments – an expensive waste of time.
centrbet has labor back to 1.27 and labors in to 3.40…
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