The latest Roy Morgan federal poll has Labor increasing its two party lead to 58-42 from 57-43 a fortnight ago. Their primary vote is up from 47 per cent to 50 per cent, while the Coalition is down from 37.5 per cent to 37 per cent. The difference comes from the Greens, down from 8.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 58-42
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138 Comments
It must be such a boring year for Aussie pollsters.
In other news, there’s an analysis of exit polling from last year’s election at Australian Policy Online.
Does Roy really think that an increase in support has anything to do with the Olympics?
Also, Why does he still bother with the ‘heading in the right direction’ thing?
Because he’s an idiot
Dave 55
Roy is a bit dim.
I like to think of him as a garbage man -
Just because he knows how to empty a can in to the back of truck doesn’t mean he understands what was in the can or why.
It doesn’t necessarily mean he isn’t pretty good at emptying the can though.
The interpretive crap is non-core business that’s damaging his brand from my perspective. It’s about as deep as pre-school kids bartering for better toys in the sand pit.
Ominod (and Dave), Roy Morgan has an excuse for being “a bit dim” – he’s been dead for 23 years. Your ire might be better directed at his son, Gary.
Dario
LOL.
I reckon he does it to bait us. Like that fake headline he posted a couple of months ago to humour those of us who occasionally plug in the anticipated web address for the polling.
ominod
nice analogy. Garbage in – garbage out.
William – good point! Not so much ire as bemusement though.
Quite possibly! If that’s it then he is top quality
My, aren’t we all getting comfy with these killer polls?
With Ross Garnaut releasing part two of his trilogy of reports today no doubt the nuke lobby will be talking it up as the solution to all our problems.
Good to see Garnaut has ruled it out, especially in light of this: Nuclear shortcuts exposed
If this can happen with a new American facility designed to process the most dangerous nuclear product, you have to wonder what goes on in countries with little to no standards.
You’re a funny man William.
So have they solved the problem of radiation from coal power stations being sent into the atmosphere, which eventually ends up on the ground?
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=coal-ash-is-more-radioactive-than-nuclear-waste
Ha! – classic!
No dimmer than us I suppose?
I guess if he (Gazza, not Big Red) writes the crap it saves an MSM journo from having to think about it – it might be the only way he gets published, if that even happens these days?
Morgan shows a drop in the Green vote, this seems to tie in with other pollsters recently.
Is this an anomaly? Or is it a perception of the new Senate numbers?
ShowsOn @ 12 -
Given a choice between standing unprotected next to a pile of the waste the South Carolina plant will be handling and a similar sized pile of fly ash, I know which I’d choose.
Actually, the fine particulates in the ash are much more dangerous, even if they contain no radioactive elements. Particulates are the cause of about 20% of lung cancers and may also increase the risk of cardiovascular disease. Still, you’d the amount of these you’re likely to breath in from fly-ash are small compared to what you;d breath in from vehicle exhausts, especially diesels. even if you lived near a coal powered power station. Lungs of city slickers are usually flecked by visible spots.
BTW-that article also makes the point that many rock phosphates contains appreciable quantities of uranium. What it doesn’t say is that plants are very good at concentrating this if the rock is used in fertilizer.
Bushfire Bill @ 9. I wonder what will happen to the polls if anyone registers that Mesmerelda has to step in to protect wee Brendon from that nasty Belinda Neal. Mind you, she does come across as a nasty and fairly useless piece.
Not surprisingly, even conservative commentators have panned McCains speech. As Finns said, it was a Dead Man Walking or maybe even rotting. Delegates fell asleep, it was described by CNN as the worst speech by a candidate since Carter in 1980 (and that didn’t end well) and of course had no new ideas, just recycled Repug rubbish.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/04/john-mccain-speech-reacti_n_124115.html
How is it possible to produce a bad speech in this day an age?
Diogenes
I see no Finns – must be from onther thread.
Or did Roy (Gary) have something in his report? 
Diogenes,
As you know, when people are under personal, financial and medical pressure they tend to look for “safe and sure”.
That is the message that McCain is selling.
Just because you don’t like it, does not mean it won’t resonate. The Republicans are fairly adept at winning Presidential elections.
“Mesmerelda has to step in to protect wee Brendon from that nasty Belinda Neal”
Brendon is recommending Bishop for an Australia Day award for her outstanding courage and selflessness in being prepared to throw herself on a live Belinda.
Diogenes
Greeensborough Growler
Two to come
Its great when four or five people can have a private conversation in public. New Topic posts William.
Oh Goody say the Fab Fourish, lets move there to continue our conversation. What was the topic one says? Who cares say the rest of them.
Come on guys give us a break, you are being unreasonable.
GG, Dio,
What do you think Obama should do next?
ruawake,
William has posted on this. It’s his site and he allows it.
I suspect there may be a solution after the WA election.
Cheers.
The problem they have is that they have had to fire up their base (because McCain is not seen as a staunch enough conservative by them) and did so by selecting Palin, but that has had the effect of firing up the Democrat base even more, and probably turning off the Independent voters. Not looking good for them.
Rod
maybe we should deploy mesmerelda to the US Presidential bodyguard.
No 23
Obama should come out with some real policy. He has zero executive experience and thus needs to demonstrate some policy affinity if he is going to compete with the impressive McCain/Palin ticket.
GG
will there ever be “non Bush orientated” benchmarks set by th guy and his supporters , or is ascension itself simply it , 5 seconds of sunshine Always todate its been just anti anyone & everybody else
Slip of the tongue.
TOM BROKAW: But the fact is, governor, that you have had eight years of a bush administration and a lot of Republicans in Congress for the last eight years, so why wouldn’t the american people say, look they had their shot we’re going to change?
TOM RIDGE: Because John Bush – because John McCain is very much his own man…
Oh dear, Tom Ridge is an idiot.
Greensborough Growler:
Crap.
The common presumption that Republicans are winners and Democrats are losers is wrong.
Since the war years, it’s about even-stevens: 9-8, Republicans-Democrats. Go back another few years and it’s 11-9 to the Democrats.
That’s Presidents: Bush jnr. (2), Clinton (2), Bush snr. (1), Reagan (2), Carter (1), Nixon(2), Johnson (1), Kennedy (1), Eisenhower (2), Truman (1), Roosevelt (4… two in the war years)
The way Republican whine and whinge about being undersogs and persecuted, you’d think it was 20-0 for the Democrats.
GG, get your facts straight, please.
Left field stat of the week.
From a combined polling sample of over 20,000 people since the last week of July – Nelson has lost over 256,500 direct Coalition voters in the Australian electorate.
That’s a lot of primary vote bleeding when your primary vote hasn’t effectively cracked 40% all year.
32
Doesn’t really matter unless where on the eve of an election. Nelson is unlikely to be leader in 2010.
BB,
In the last 10 terms; Republicans have won 7-3.
I reckon they do vote Republican more so. Otherwise Gore would have beaten idiot Dubya for sure in 2000.
Primary voters might not be so easy to bring back. Having changed people need reason to change again, simply putting in someone else wont be enough. The Libs will have to put on some solid performance to win them back.
Being negative all the time on everything wont do it.
Doesn’t matter eh GP?
Well, then – if it doesn’t matter – how about the Libs keep Nelson there until 12 months out from the next election?
Your primary will be hanging in the low to mid 30’s, the Nats will be wiped out by rural independents and Labor will cement themselves in government for another 2 terms before the Coalition even pretends to become competitive.
I’m sure the Labor Party reckons it sounds like a plan.
No 35
I agree, but there is simply no reason to defend the reckless taxation binge that the Government intends the Senate to rubber stamp.
1. Alcopop tax will not do anything. Evidence has already emerged both statistically and anecdotally that youths are going to hard liquor instead.
2. Luxury Car Tax is an unfair and inefficient tax. Why aren’t other “luxury” goods taxed? Luxury mansions, luxury yachts, luxury jewellery – indeed anything except the bare essentials to survive could be construed as a luxury. Completely stupid tax – Costello should never have introduced it, and Swan should have abolished it, not increase it. Rudd talks about being inclusive – yet his government has been on an anti-wealthy people tirade in parliament for days. What’s worse, it’s not Mercs, BMWs and Porsches that the tax will mostly affect. It’s the cars between 57,000 and 70,000 that are most effected (according to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries) – hardly the domain of millionaires. Once again, Rudd is the real economic vandal, punishing hard work, punishing working families, punishing Australian made vehicles.
Hypocrisy galore. Shame on Rudd.
BB,
And Im sure if you go back further….
My point of reference is 1968 since it is after Johnson introduced civil rights legislation and has resulted in the Republics taking the south ever since.
I think you’ll find it 7/3 since then.
GG,
Moroever look at the three: two by Clinton (a very gifted politician), and the other one straight after Watergate.
No 36
Possum, I fully acknowledge the polling issues that Nelson is facing. I expect the leadership to change by the end of the year, with either Turnbull or Costello at the helm.
GG, [I suspect there may be a solution after the WA election] – The Red Army is at the gate, the Czarina promised the revolution in 3h 38 min. But what have you done with the revolution? A change you can believe in indeed.
Well, why don’t we go back four terms? It’s still 2-all, with two of them stolen (Gore/Kerry) or at best won by the slimmest of margins.
In October last year (to… shudder… talk about Australian politics for a change), the point could have benn (and was regularly) made that the Liberals are the natural party of federal government in this country.
Look how the tables have turned. While they congratulate themselves with celebratory dinners (like drinking champange on the Titanic) Poss points out the Libs are sinking fast (to continue the metaphor).
He also points out the Republicans are going down the gurgler with them.
I was never in doubt Labor would win last year… was predicting it from the polls from mid-2006 when the commentators were saying Labor was tanking in the polls. Even wrote a couple of letters to the ABC pointing it out… until I learnt for good that there’s no point complaining to the ABC.
And I have not the slightest doubt that Obama will win this year. Not only will win, but should win, not by virtue of policy, but because the Republicans have blown it big time.
Except in Japan and Burma, the success of a party a few elections back is not much indicator of success at the next election.
Which is why I picked 75 years. You picked 40. Whatever, the Repubs are goin’
down and so are the Libs. They can pat themselves on the back as much as they like, but it won’t change the result.
BB,
Agree with you that there’s not much point in comparing competing, selective views of history.
The Democrats ought to be able to beat the party of Bush this year, and they probably will. I have to say though, the Republicans have had a better Convention than I’d have thought possible a week ago. Notwithstanding some people’s views to the contrary, Gustav was a godsend for them, as it meant they could keep Bush locked in a cupboard without annoying the right wing of the party.
I suspect this will only affect the margin of Obama’s victory, if it affects anything at all.
Sarah Palin: The Face of Ugly Americanism
What I saw on that stage was the personification of small-minded smugness, an utter lack of humility, a kind of self-righteous entitlement based on little more than puffed-up narrowness. She struck me not as plucky but, rather, as stunningly immodest–to the point of arrogance. Some people are arrogant and maybe deserve to be. They know it, and flaunt it, while everyone else thinks they are jerks. But there’s another kind of arrogance, perhaps harder to spot at first, an arrogance that apparently doesn’t even recognize itself as such, a sanctified, self-satisfied presumptuousness that flows from sheer naïveté about oneself and the world and manifests itself in giddy ambition.
Yes, she can bring a bunch of white people to their feet chanting USA, USA, USA. Good for her. But true leadership in these difficult times will require actual knowledge, not just personality. This world of ours, the past hundred years, has too frequently witnessed the dangers–nay, the evils–of compensatory nativism. Citizens in our own country should have learned one of the major lessons of these last eight years, namely that conviction should not serve as a trump card over competence.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-seery/sarah-palin-the-face-of-u_b_123989.html
27 – no experience? Since when did that stop someone taking the top job?
The Liberals pinned the ‘no experience’ tag on Kevin Rudd for the best part of last year. Where are we now? Record polling since it first began 35 years ago.
…
You mean evidence from the Liquor Industry? Hahahaha
The only credible evidence from the tax office shows that alcohol consumption is down 5%, and that while some of the reduction in alcopop sales has gone to spirits, it is less in terms of alcohol volume. As for kids going to ‘hard liquor’, what do you think they drank before alcopops existed?
gusface @ 26 -
maybe we should deploy mesmerelda to the US Presidential bodyguard.
Nah, way to tame for someone who stared down Big Bad Belinda!
Parachute her into the Pakistani tribal areas instead. Within a hour she’ll have bin Laden begging Bush for asylum in Gitmo, and the Taliban whipped by lunchtime. Perhaps she could do a detour through Georgia on the way home. Bloody Putin won’t know what hit him!
Possum has a wonderful read on how McCain has been Impaled.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/intrade-data/
mayo
goddamn now you’ve gone and blown her cover as GI Mesmerelda
actually I heard she and brenda were trying out for “snakes on a plane pt2-the snakes revenge”
I don’t know who said this but they didn’t read this article.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24113156-5001031,00.html
The Libs have really missed a trick with their response to Alcopops, FuelWatch and Luxury Car Tax (and probably some other things besides).
A much more astute response politically would have been to support these measures. (”We wouldn’t do this but we are willing to give a new Govt a fair go”). These measures are all so utterly trivial in the big scheme of things and the best way to expose this would have been to let the Govt enact them.
I guess the problem is, as commentators have noted, Nelson has to pick fights to shore up his weak position within the party.
Dyno @ 51. The Libs. haven’t got a clue about what their position is on….well, anything. They haven’t got their Leadership settled, unless you buy Mesmeralda, the defender of baby Brendon. Is anyone convinced by the Rupert Murdoch parroting of their position on climate change? Which is looking pretty much like a Norwegian Blue.
Stalwart upholders of the LNP brand, you guys got anything?
Enemy Marsupial
#32
“Left field stat of the week.
From a combined polling sample of over 20,000 people since the last week of July – Nelson has lost over 256,500 direct Coalition voters in the Australian electorate.”
Enemy Marsupia , no left field at all , above is delusionary registering intentions at a point in time as is 59% to 41%
Gary Morgons role in life every week or so with his inflated Labor polling , is to make Labor people happy & Liberals depressed , Labor people know th figures ar inflated & Liberals ar not sure which makes them unhappy A labor vote of over 2PP 54% to 54.5% wont happen , but landside will do me
I’m waiting for someone to explain to me seeing his Poll result says 51% say heading right way , and 32% say heading wrong , why do th other 17% hav no idea
Geez, Ron. I don’t know why you’re complaining about what Possum is reporting? Truly?
I deal in reality and th currrent 58/42 is not , its transitionary , if you wish to believe thats what will happen at an electon fine , 54.5% then probably tops
Hey Diogenes that Intrade contract you were raving about – its down to 5.
No 51
The amusing thing, though, Dyno, is that by opposing the tax hikes, the Opposition has managed to make the Government look stupid with their ridiculous accusations of economic vandalism.
All credible economists that I’ve read in the daily rags have indicated that there would be no impact on the trajectory of interest rates if the surplus was cut by 7 billion.
If you’ve listened to the stupidity of Conroy in the Senate (Treasurer’s representative) on Radio National, you’d understand what I mean. They’re trying to run the similar argument that Costello ran with respect to raiding the Future Fund. Except the difference is that an excessive surplus smacks of excessive hoarding and hence the government must and should return it to the people. The Future Fund has entirely different purposes.
The very success of the Opposition in neutering these issues is clear. Rudd has not gained any traction on them at all.
#57
“The amusing thing, though, Dyno, is that by opposing the tax hikes, the Opposition has managed to make the Government look stupid with their ridiculous accusations of economic vandalism.”
at best looking stupid to th ‘right’ intellegentsia , in reality Government hav made Liberals look like they’re protecting rich people’s cars & helping young to drink more …pretty stupid of Libs I’d say As for economics not so , problem is capacity not demand
But Ron, wasn’t this supposed to be the Government of inclusion, not wedges? Oh look…they’re playing class wars in the Parliament. Hypocrites.
I kove how the Liberal aka “Wedge” Party fans expect Labor to always be purer than the driven snow, while they lie, cheat and connive as much as they want (and call it clever).
The Libs block 6.5 billion dollars worth of Budget bills without even a debate or a committee discussion, and then try to assume the high and mighty position of moral arbiters.
Worse than that, they think the voters love them for it! Ironically, on the same night this rape of the Budget process started, they were just down the corridor in the Great Hall congratulating themselves on what brilliant statesmen they had been and how wonderful their government had been and what a terrible mistake the voters made etc.etc.
Sickeningly hypocritical.
Generic Person ” the Government of inclusion”
think actualy its a government thats governing in interests of Country , constructive xriticism should be at policy & think most people (probably you sectretly) agree taxing luxury cars is equitable & CC beneficial , and re youth drinks figures show its diminshed demand thats what we all want
So in a social sense they ar reely important , but not as much in a fiscal sense Whereas in a politcal sense Nelson was reely crazy to oppose them , but suspect he’s trying to pro up his numbers there…just delaying his execution for mine
Govt will def make some mistakes in future , they all do , and those legit ones is when you win both credibility , and votes
by opposing /criticisng
No 61
I do not secretly, or otherwise, support senseless taxation. The LCT should never have been introduced, and the ALP has no cogent argument in maintaining it.
Nonetheless, you’ve missed the point. The petty class wars in the Parliament are despicable and divisive and completely separated from the claims of the PM during the election.
Generic Person
hav no problem seriously addresing me by a number , BUT when we gwet to number 99 thats your number
“The petty class wars in the Parliament are despicable and divisive” Thats reely a ‘dogma’ argument
IF you re read my first paragrapgh of #61 , there ar social benefits to both taxes regarding equity & CC benefits in introducing a luxury car tax & in reducing kids drinking in lollypop tax So its not ‘class warefare’ but sensible social policy What your arguing actualy for is ststus quo on both taxes but where is justification to leave as is on those spesific taxes vs social benefits of th taxes
GP talks crap again…
… other than it has reduced total alcohol consumption and that the exemption was an anomalous – and unexplained – tax rort when introduced in 2000.
The original alcopops in America were taxed lower, as they qualified as a “beer”. They were brewed as a beer without the traditional beer flavour (”un-hopped beer”). Un-hopped beer is tasteless, colorless… just add cordial.
But even this was too much effort for the lazy Oz liquor lobby. Why not just use grain alcohol, CO2 infused with fruit flavour poured into it… before they poured it into our sons and daughters? Good idea, if only you can get Howard to approve. A few hundred thousand in Lib Party donations did the trick.
The Opposition and God’s Man Fielding have gone one better than Jesus by turning wine into gold for the distillers.
To call trying to fix this rort “despicable” and “divisive” is the height of cynicism. For God’s sake, GP, the Opps and Fielding haven’t even debated it, or produced any figures. Not debating it gives Labor no chance to produce figures, on the record, in the proper place, in Hansard, either (not that the Libs would have listened, they have their donations to protect).
BB, he means Luxury Car Tax.
Still, unassailable points about rectifying the alcopops tax anomaly.
ESJ
The Intrade figure on Palin getting thrown off the ticket is going to go up. From the Anchorage Daily News editorial.
Governor is stonewalling the Troopergate investigation
http://www.adn.com/opinion/story/516641.html
bushfire
gp is off looking for some more big bens
Well, at least I wasn’t talking crap.
bushfire
pollbludger is a broad community,with its fair share of wackos and looneys (points at self) but gp takes the cake for both extreme arrogance and ignorance.
though I do enjoy hearing the latest fib talking sheets sprout forth from gp,I miss the intellectual cut and thrust as all his arguments are premised on falsities that he believes exists.
It is a bit like arguing with my youngest why he has to brush his teeth-I now treat gp the same way-maybe I should tell him about how upset the tooth (truth) fairy will be with him.
70 gusface – well expressed. GP has his mates too. Time I ignored them completely.
thanks Gary
the realisation of total irrelevance cuts deep into the pysche of the fibs
and I hope cuts even deeper-they deserve nothing less.
BB
I heard a commentator agree with you that Fielding is doing himself no favours by rejecting these policies without sending them to Senate committees. It makes him look like the reactionary, populist amateur he is.
There are many measures of whether the alcopop tax was working, consumption only being one. Road accidents, assaults, presentations to Emergency for intoxication, prescriptions for te morning after pill, arrests for drunk and disorderly etc etc could all be valid outcome measurement the Senate could look at. As it is, we are never going to know whether it was a good policy for reducing harmful drinking or not.
Just a short note to remind everyone that that an ALP State secretary in Victoria was the genius who directed preferences to Fielding and denied David Ristrom (Barrister and really talented Melbourne City Councillor) of the Greens the spot in the Senate.
This was the same chap who put a DLP person in the Upper house as well, Genius.
The fallout went right through the last term when Fielding was the duffer who gave the LIBS clear air in the senate. He is a complete lightwieght but its interesting to see the way the ALP are having to deal with him. While they are having a go at the Libs, just remember, Follow the Preferences back to that State Secretary ask why?
Oh dear, now even The Australian thinks the Governor-General is our Head of State:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24302149-5013871,00.html
If Obama loses the election in November. His failure to pick Hillary of his VP will go down as the biggest blunder ever in the history of POTUS election.
That failure gave McCain an opening and he took it with Sarah Palin.
As the grapevine had it, it was Michelle Obama that cannot stand Hillary and vetoed it. If so, that is showing the weak side of Obama’s character, namely he cannot handle strong woman.
Hi all, have been off to the paddocks to check the grazing, the weeds, the feral animals and so forth. Unexpected lowlight was that Sambar deer are turning up all over the place and are stuffing the shrub layer good and proper in the bush.
Good spring growth south of the divide. Just great walking across pastures that were green and above the ankles. The broad acre mob are going to get some grain out this year, and more if we get a couple of good follow up rains, but the irrigators are up the proverbial.
But I digress.
On the road, I had the edification of listening to Thursday’s question time.
The dot dixers were a hoot. The Opposition questioners lined up and were shot down in flames. They were choking on their Ferraris. Their bewilderment and resentment at having the QT rules completely stacked against them was palpable. They were whinging about all those answers that went for more than 4 minutes. Albanese, who perhaps lacks charisma but who does now about parliamentary tactics, reminded them of the several hundred times answers in the previous parliament{?} had gone over 4 minutes.
The Speaker’s ruling I enjoyed most was in response to a point of order on relevance. ‘The answer is consistent with precedents set in the House.’ Too bloody right it was. I was thinking how Costello might enjoy being dragged from pillar to post during QT.
The only flies in the ointment is that it turns out that there is something like another $39billion in highly leveraged hedge fund something or others that are likely to go down the tubes when all the frightened folk seek to get their funds out at the end of September; plus the Bank of China has about $1trillion riding in US bonds and things like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. If all that crap comes out in the next couple of years, Saint Kevin might yet become a martyr to the greed years.
My, my, my, how things have changed.
At one time, Hillary was evil, noxious, malignant, despicable, shameless, contemptible, abhorrent, abominable, detestable, execrable, hateful, loathsome, odious, disgusting, repugnant, repulsive; disgraceful, dishonorable, vile and a big fat liar. In particular to certain Obama supporters on certain blog site.
But now, she is smelling like roses, can do no wrong and can do only right for Mr. Obama.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/06/us/politics/06web-healy.html?ref=politics
Bushfire Bill; LCT = Luxury Car Tax not Alcopops tax.
Whenever there’s a change in government, the new lot always say “The budget looks a lot worse than we were lead to believe. There will have to be cutbacks for us to keep our election promises. This is the first time I can recall a new leader saying it about their own party. The credibilty gap has to be a mile wide for the NSW Labor party.
Budget worse than expected – Rees
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24303565-5005962,00.html
Why should Clinton be so involved in the Obama campaign? She owes him absolutely nothing. He chose not to have her as VP, which was the right call IMO as the two of them could never have presented a united face after their bitter primary battle. So where’s the onus on her to do any heavy lifting beyond the usual party stuff?
No 80
Vindicates Costa totally. Costa should be in the Liberal Party.
I thought Clinton and Obama among others were involved in a run-off for their supporters to choose who they wanted for POTUS candidate. They are I thought running to put a democrat in power and thus why they make sure they have the support of their own voters base.
It is strange to think that if a Democrat had some special asset helpful to the cause that they wouldn’t use it.
To think that Clinton or any other Democrat shouldn’t bother doing anything because they lost the democratic nomination process proves that in their minds it was all about personalities and not party. Clinton is a member of the democrats, not the democrats part of the Clinton party.
If Obama is not the best choice for their wining that is too bad, that is what they are left with and so they all have to do their best – and not take their bat and ball and go home.
I don’t care really except that the democrats win, and you would think any democrat senator would ten times as more keen than me.
Now that we have the real danger of Palin being a default president it is even more critical the democrats win.
BTW it may be possible in the future we end up with a Clinton v Palin race for POTUS. Now wouldn’t that be intersting.
“that is showing the weak side of Obama’s character, namely he cannot handle strong women.”
Finns, he is no Tony Abbott.
“Costa should be in the Liberal Party.”
You can have him.
The Canadians are off to the polls early now.
http://news.smh.com.au/world/canadian-pm-will-call-for-early-election-20080906-4b0l.html
“Oh dear, now even The Australian thinks the Governor-General is our Head of State”
Articles does note at the end though that
“He had one message for the Queen’s new representative. “Good on you, mate,” he said.”
So they got it right in the end, the GG represents the Queen in Australia as your passport says.
I know there is a lot of sparing going on here, but some of these arguments are just ridiculous.
On the luxury car tax, the whole idea that Rudd is high taxing is laughable, even for someone as ignorant of economics as a calition staffer. Australian taxes are low by OECD standards and barely high enough to provide the services we need. Even the US taxes more in % terms. Before the last budget economists were begging for economic restraint (i.e. spend less; tax more) to get inflation under control. The idiotic Howard small-minded-government idea that all tax cuts are good and all public investment bad lives on in the Liberal Party. I shudder to think how high interest rates might have gone if Howard had been relected.
On the US election, yes McCain gave a tired old speech. Symbolic? As for past voting records, who cares? Australia electing Menzies for a decade didn’t save Howard. Likewise past Republican presidential victories won’t get McCain elected. His slogan should be “Steady as she sinks: Vote McCain/Palin”.
As for Palins speech yes it did try to glorify stupidity. The Forest Gump of politics? Her theme seemed to be “Don’t tell me I’m ignorant, I’m still gona fight yous!” What kind of a leader is that? How will she solve the world’s conflicts? Being a mother of five is hard work, but it doesn’t entitle you to be president. It might just mean you don’t know how to use contraceptives.
#88 – [As for Palins speech yes it did try to glorify stupidity] – do not underestimate the stupidity of the American voters. They are really really stupid, otherwise why did they elect Dubya twice.
This is why the Repugs have been quite smart so far with Palin. It kills two birds with one stone – tied up the conservative votes and help McCain to steal the “CHANGE” mantle from Obama by putting up a woman and a Washington outsider. She simply reinforces McCain’s maverick image.
Whereas Obama started with a big bang of “Change”, slowly but surely shedding his change message by flip-floppin on a number of change issues, his pastor’s “he is just another politician”, not appointing Hillary as his VP and appointing a long term old Washington insider as his VP.
And then there is always the elephant. That is why Sarah Palin’s speech was basically: “I am white, white, white, you are black, black, black and I smack, smack, smack”.
Socrates @ 88
On the tax take, the Rudd 2007-08 budget has a lower tax take as a percentage of GDP than about the previous five budgets; not sure beyond that.
The following scenario is now a possibility:
1. McCain/Palin are successful.
2. McCain becomes POTUS and has a stroke/heart attack or develops dementia/alzheimers.
3. Palin becomes POTUS.
4. Palin, as commander in chief, starts a war against somebody, anybody, probably Iran,… and on moose, caribou, bears, ducks, elk… whatever.
5. Palin announces that Federal funding to the states will be conditional on their health systems refusing to perform abortions. Family planning clinics will only be funded if they preach abstinence. Their education systems will only be funded if they refuse to teach evolution. Science teaching will only be funded if they start with the notion that CC is a load of hooey. The FBI and CIA will be enlisted to get anyone who has done wrong to the Palin clan.
Seriously, the question about all four possibilities for Pres is how good they are at having a big picture and how good they are at delegating. Not sure how Palin rates against these criteria.
Clinton will probably have another go in four year’s time so it is in her interest to boost the Democrats. Clinton now has a big campaign debt which only Obama can ‘fix’. He needs her to shepherd her devotees and to get them out on polling day. She needs him for the moolah and to look reasonable in four year’s time.
Did Palin have to resign as governor to run?
Watching News Hour
Odd that both McCain and Palin have shaky voices.
Boerwar @ 90 –
4. Palin, as commander in chief, starts a war against somebody, anybody,
McCain is likely to beat her to the first punch-up assuming he doesn’t drop of the perch at the Inauguration. Indeed, with evidence he had more than a little to do with the Georgia fiasco, he arguably already has.
MF,
Not trying to be argumentative but is there any evidence that he had something to do with Georgia?
Looks like Costello might have Tipped a bucket on Howard. Shaun Carney of The Age has apparently had a pre-release read of Costello’s memoirs and predicts:
The John-worshipping Libbos will take a most dim view if he has badmouthed their hero too darkly. Could be his parting shot?
Dyno 94 -
McCain claims he and Mikheil Saakashvili have been buddies for 25 years.
McCain’s nominated Saakashvili for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005. LOL!
McCain, was making all sorts of extravagant promises to Georgia before the balloon went up.
McCain’s top foreign policy adviser (and member of the neocon Project for the New American Century), Randy Scheunemann, was (is?) a lobbyist for the Georgian government.
McCain has claimed that since the crisis began has been talking to Saakashvili up to 3 times a day.
Cindy McCain has just returned from Georgia where she reportedly assured the government that as Prez McCain would back them to the hilt.
Does all the above prove McCain had anything to do with Georgia’s actions? No. But he’s hardly an uninterested bystander and where there’s smoke…
Dyno
It’s all in here.
http://www.counterpunch.org/lichtman08212008.html
Dyno
#94
MF, Not trying to be argumentative but is there any evidence that he had something to do with Georgia?
th evidence Dyno in #96 indicates Maverick phoned Pres Saakashvili of Georgia
to get him to phone Putin asking Putin to invade Georgia , so its Maverick’s fault first fro georgia being invaded , then its Georgian Prsidents fault and Putin was innocent
More than a bit ingenious, Ron.
Yes, the Ossettians have been stirring the pot all year, almost certainly on orders from Putin. However, the Georgians did more than “phone Putin asking Putin to invade Georgia.” they launched an all out invasion of South Ossettia, quite possibly killing Russian ‘peacekeepers’ in the process.
Why would a small country with an army of 33,000 troops take on what is still a military superpower armed with enough nukes to fry the entire planet?
Either Saakashvili is a raving nutter, or he expected more backup than he eventually got.
If the first why is McCain clinging to him like he’s his long lost brother? And what does it say about your golden haired boy’s judgement?
If it’s the second then who promised what to whom? Bush denies it was him and I tend to believe him. There was nothing in this for him. Georgia wasn’t a cause he was closely associated and there are more than enough avowed enemies he could have kicked for political effect.
The EU has announced an enquiry into what happened. I’m expecting the report to make fascinating reading. Fortunately for your candidate the enquiry won’t conclude until long after the election.
MF
you’ve skewered th facts so much with anti American sentiments , that you’ve got th sovereign country invaded ie Georgia asking th invader Russia to invade Did you get this off a looney pro Obama site like your equaly looney Lady’s pregnancy furthy
The first line in 99 should have read “More than a bit disingenuous,
How is Russia’s actions in Georgia any different to NATO’s in Kosovo, Ron? How many NATO troops were killed by Serbia when it moved to wipe out the Kosovo Liberation Army on sacred Serbian soil?
Taiwan is historically part of China. Will you support China if it invaded to bring it back into the fold? Timor Leste geographically part of Indonesia and its people ethnically not much different than West Timorese, so were you against its independence? Is Sudan right to thump the people of its Darfur province?
But none of this is to the point. The fact is Georgia chose to launch an all out attack on Ossettia. Why then? Given that on its own it had no chance against Russia, what support did Georgia expect to receive from America, the only country with the means to stare down/take on Russia? Who promised what?
Why of all the countries in this world did McCain take time out to visit Georgia during the primaries? He didn’t go to the Tibetan border, or Taiwan, or Colombia, or Kashmir, or Darfur, or the Philippines, or any of the other places where there are similar disputes, just Georgia.
Why is McCain on the blower to Saakashvili 3 times a day? Why did he dispatch the missus to Georgia last week? Will she be his Secretary of State if he become Prez? Does he believe she/he already are?
Who had the most to gain from what would have been a foreign policy triumph if Putin had blinked? McCain standing alongside his old buddy Saakashvili banging on about his supposed ‘legendary’ foreign policy experience? He’s certainly been milking this for all it’s worth!
Something’s brewing at the NYT about Palin’s baby according to Drudge.
MayoFeral at 101
Good comment!
One of things that the Georgia episode is demonstrating is that while the Russian military machine may not be what it was (although sufficient for the qualified limited intervention at hand) – they have significantly improved their diplomatic and media management skills over the last decade.
Those Repugs sure know how to run an economy. McCain keeps talking it up but two more mortgage companies get a blank cheque as reward for stuffing up and going under. Is that a “free market” economy?
U.S. Unveils Takeover of Two Mortgage Giants
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/08/business/08fannie.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Oh dear, the Rudd Government is heading for big trouble. Didn’t I say that there will be seven interest cuts as we run into the election in 2010. Like election, you have to feel that interest rate is rising.
http://business.smh.com.au/business/rba-points-to-lower-rates-20080908-4bpm.html
Finnigans
That is exactly why I was so critical of Howard lasty year! Under him we had amoungst the highest interest rates in the OECD, despite Howard’s claim of “low” interest rates. One of the reasons was his excessive spending. Now the Labor has the budget under control (Senate taxation vandalism aside) that trend is turning around, there is no reason our interest rates shouldn’t trend down to those of our peers, some 2-3% lower.
Diogenes
Yes that bailout really shows that they mean “accountability-free” when they say “free-market”. I noticed this intereting excerpt in the NY Times article on the takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae
“The plan also commits the government to provide as much as $100 billion to each company to backstop any shortfalls in capital.”
Great news for US taxpayers. Still, if they had just not invaded Iraq, they would have had the money to save them with change…
Where are my Amigos GG and Ronnie? breaking news:
the One is in trouble, big trouble: RCP National Average 45.7 46.7 McCain +1.0
I have not seen this before that McCain is up in RCP Average. We told them, we told them and we told them
National vote doesnt matter… its the battleground states that do
If all Palin has done is bring out more vote in the south then it will not make a difference
Finns
Your Chicken Little impression isn’t fooling me! As Dario says, it’s the twelve battleground states that matter. All polls are pretty irrelevant until the convention and VP choices settle down.
And Obi still has the Hillary missile to deploy.
Diog, me chicken little? It’s your Obi that was a chicken little. He should have the courage to pick, at the least, Hillary of his VP and none of this would have happened.
Bad strategic call. He gave McCain an opening, and McCain took it. never give the sucker an opening and he did.
Instead the Rupubs would have just attacked him & Hillary being on the same ticket by trotting out all their vitriol during the Primaries, and it would have been 10 times worse. Hillary voters aren’t going to vote for Palin en masse, given that they are diametrically opposed in just about everything they believe in. Obama made the right call IMO.
Finns
The polls are showing that 85% of Hillary supporters are going to Obama. That’s probably a higher per centage than Obama’s supporters from 3 months ago sticking with Obama.
If you look at electoral vote (or any other site) it’s very hard to argue that John Bush will win. He’ll never win NH with Palin. If you give him Virginia he’s on 237 EV. The only marginal states for Obi are OH, ND, NV and CO. That only takes him up to 274. Even if by some miracle he wins NH he’s still short at 278.
McBush needs then to win New Mexico. Obama is ahead by 9% there. Where’s Macca going to get his last ev’s from?
On Skynews, its latest poll on better PM between Rudd vs Costello shows 53-27 for Rudd. Bring Cossie on.
Meanwhile even Julie “Amazon” Bishop is considered to be a better Opp leader to Nelson: 7 to 6% after Cossie and Turnbull.
Finns, was that a Sky poll or just them reporting one of the major reputable polls? If it was a Sky poll then it is worth about as much as the toilet paper I am about to use in a few minutes…
Sign of troubled times? Obama’s cheersquad is kaput. If you recall Keith Olbermann was particularly nasty on Hillary after her comment about Robert Kennedy was assassinated in June. Good riddance.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/08/AR2008090800008.html?hpid=topnews
Sign of happy times? You got to admit when the Frenchies do it, they do it with class. Is Sarkozy getting a bit greedy?
http://www.theage.com.au/world/in-paris-pollys-baby-is-a-private-affair-20080907-4bh6.html
http://www.mylittlebuzz.com/public/politique/rachida-dati-sarkozy-chine.jpg
http://partenaires-ez.prisma-presse.com/afp/francais/journal/fra/photos/photo_1220439069591-1-0.jpg
Finns
Huff has been pretty nasty about the Big O recently as well. Glen Greenwald, who can run rings around almost any journalist in the US, has also got stuck into O about ignoring Obama’s faults.
Diog, Obama has faults?
Can anyone explain how this comment is anything other than complete and utter bull shit?
Cossie’s publishers demand a gag on bookstores selling his manifesto.
How highly confidential can the content be if it is about to be sold in every Austrlian bookstore to the unsuspecting public FFS.
Yes, Finns. Obama has faults.
He said to Hillary “You are likeable enough.” He never should have lied like that.
Diogenes @ 104 -
Those Repugs sure know how to run an economy.
Well Republican Herbert Hoover was President when the Great Depression began, Ronnie Reagan was minding the shop during the 1980s Savings and Loans crisis and now we’ve had 8 years of financial fun and games with George starting with Eron and ending with the greatest financial bailout in human history. And lets not forget the wholesale rorting that has been a central feature of the Iraq adventure.
Seems like there’s little difference between the Libs and Repubs. Both talk the talk but constantly trip over their shoelaces when it comes to doing the walk unless they are very, very lucky as Howard and Costello were.
In defence of Hoover, he’d not been in the job long, however, he did follow another Republican, Calvin Coolidge. My granddad actually knew Hoover well while he was working in the WA gold fields and had a high opinion of the man.
Dio @ 114,
“If you look at electoral vote (or any other site) it’s very hard to argue that John Bush will win. He’ll never win NH with Palin. If you give him Virginia he’s on 237 EV. The only marginal states for Obi are OH, ND, NV and CO. That only takes him up to 274. Even if by some miracle he wins NH he’s still short at 278.”
Er, aren’t there 538 EVs in total, making the magic number 270?
McCain now into about $2.50 on Betfair.
The key point is that McCain was by far the most electable Republican, and they picked him.
McCain is walking around with a sign saying “I am not George Bush” stapled to his forehead, whilst using Annie Oakley to keep the Right happy. It’ll be interesting to see if they can hold all the inherent contradictions together till the Election day. And if they look like they are going to, it will be interesting to see if Obama loses his legendary cool.
Dyno.
How embarrassment!!
I’ll go off to the naughty corner with Finns.
So if McBush wins NH, VA, OH, ND, NV and CO without dropping any of MT, SD, IN, NC or FL he gets 274.
He can afford to drop ND, SD, MT or NH, but not two of them. And he’s got to win all the remaining seven listed above. That’s a pretty huge ask if NM, MI and PA stay as blue as they have been.
Looks like Colorado is going to be seeing a lot of Obama.
Dio,
I’m really just slip-streaming whilst you do the hard work, so there’s no need to be embarrassed on my account!
Yes, I agree, it’s a big ask for McCain. However if the latest polls showing McCain 1-3 points in front were (a) accurate and (b) sustained, there’d presumably be some State(s) or other that we haven’t thought of, where he’d be in contention.
Obama’s situation would then be a bit reminiscent of the 2007 Fed election when some Liberals were misguidedly claiming Howard could win with as little as 47% TPP.
Anyway, long way (still) to go, and the polls are still in a State of post-Convention, Palinistic flux I suspect!
Latest Gallup 54-44 in McCains favour. In the American vernacular – stick a fork in (Obama) him he’s done.
ESJ,
How much is bounce?
Aren’t we supposed to wait a week or so?
Newspoll 56-44
ESJ
I’m not even going to respond to that.
Have you (or anyone else) read “Murder in Amsterdam” by Buruma. It’s about the murder of Theo van Gogh by a Muslim extremist. It talks about what happens when Enlightenment/ liberal values are challenged by (in this case) Muslim fundamentalism. Liberal values are then caught in a paradox; they should tolerate and try to understand all opinions but this very tolerance can sew the seed of the destruction of a liberal society (either through terrorism, massive immigration of people who don’t share these ideals, or because of the rise of populist reactionary right-wing politicians who strongly oppose Muslim immigration).
It’s quite fascinating.
Dyno – BHO’s bounce was +6, McCain’s is looking like +16. Clinton got +17 in 1992. Hence my view he’s finished.
No Diogenes, have you read “What’s left”, by some journo in UK similar theme. Says the left sold out in its failure to challenge Islamic extremism.
The Intrade odds are collapsing too Diogenes, 51-47 in Obama’s favour now.
Different topic: environment. Here is a link a friend sent me to a fascinating CSIRO report analysing population and environmental data over the last thirty years and comparing it to the Club of Rome’s famous much-derided Limits to Growth report of 1970.
http://www.csiro.au/files/files/plje.pdf
What is interesting is that, despite past criticism from growth-is-good economists, it seems the Club of Rome wasn’t so far wrong! The actual history has tracked pretty close to the “business as usual” case in their report. What has proved unrealistic were the “technology will fix it” scenarios. So much for all those CC denialists who say that global models are never right.
Soberingly, the Limits to Growth report projected major social collapse mid way through this century.
New thread.
MP
make up your mine , one minute “I’m more than abit More than a bit ingenuous in #99 , then 2 hours later in #101 ” more than a bit disingenuous” Given your claimed measured posting I can only conclude you believe I’m both
Frankly you hav reduced a complicated Geo politcal Georgian issue that had its more definitive roots at NATO meeting in april which agreeing to admit Georgia & Ukraine subject to doing due process , into a one liner blaming it all on a US presidential candidatte Such a notion would be regarded by any professional non partisan foreign affairs expert as absurb
In other posts you’ve displayed a strong anti ANZUS & anti US stanse regarding foreign affairs , and its your right to do so despite it representing a miniscule of ‘oz’ views However your latest alegation blaming maverick over Georgia would be more typical of extreme left marxists and is NOT th view of our Rudd government not th EU In fact th German & French pres hav publicly condemned Russia
What we do know Rrom russia’s invasion is th response of Bush mirrored by Obama was p.ssweak and appeasemement by both What we do know prior to invaion is Russia invaded another UN recognised sovereign Country , both facts you blithley ignore
What we do know pre invasion is separate 5 parties (Russia, Ossetians , EU , US & Georgia) had varying complicated responsibilitys for what occured & none of whom was McCain or Obama for that matter Clearly most responsibility & condemnation belongs with th invader Russia , with th other 4 partys not blameless either as I’ve previously said but to a varying lesser degree
This Country Russian you seem to think with anti american sentiment to hav same historic values & libertys as th 26 Nations making up th NATO & therefore worthy in your view to be regarded as a benign peace maker
Tell that to th 14 former Soviet dominated Countrys who gleefuly escaped Russia’s tyranny & genocides like th Polish , th chezs etc , who see EU & Nato as protecting there libertys from thuggish Russia , go to any of those countrys waving a Russian flag and anti US flag & see how much support you get , especialy th surviving families
Iraq …what you achieve with your illogical alegation is to allow th 100% defenders of US being 100% perfect in all things FA to sterotype ALL & any criticism of USA FA as coming from looney left marxists & to be disregarded , meaning those that ar legatimatekly condemning USA over its disgraceful Iraq invasion to be lumped with you & anti american sentimenjt , and therefore potentialy ignored You know Obama went to Afhganistan 7 its deteriorated since , & he’s to blame say some blogers , another absurd partissan point scoring US electon spin whch you’ve indulged in
Fact is AMONGST other Gep politcal factors there ar both gas & oil pipelines going through Georgia & there was to be Georgian NATO & EU membership , all of which ar above th influense of any US candidate , big powers decide these things but by all means post such blogs , you’ll convince no one on that basis
I will repost this , but leave it till about 20 posts hav been made